CP NHT NGNH DC PHM H12011

1. Tng quan ngnh

Tc tng trng cao
Theo s liu thng k ca Cc qun l Dc, tng gi tr tin thuc s dng t trn 1,9 triu
USD trong nm 2010, tng gn 13% so vi nm 2009. Mc d tc tng trng tng tin
thuc s dng ang trong xu hng gim qua 2 nm 2009-2010 nhng vn gi mc trn 2
con s. Tc tng trng gi tr tin thuc s dng tng bnh qun t bnh qun trn 18%
trong 5 nm 2006-2010, cao hn nhiu so vi mc tng trng bnh qun ca ngnh Dc
ton cu (6,2%).
BMI d bo gi tr tin thuc s dng s t gn 3,4 triu USD vo nm 2015 vi tc tng
trng bnh qun trn 14,5%/nm trong giai on 2011-2015 ( loi tr tc ng ca t gi),
tuy chm hn giai on 2006-2010 nhng vn mc cao v vt xa mc tng trng bnh
qun ton cu theo IMS Health d bo l 3-6%/nm v cao hn tc tng trng trung bnh
nhm 3 cc th trng Dc phm mi ni (Cc th trng mi ni tr Trung quc, Brazil, n
v Nga) c d bo mc 10-13%/nm.
tr$
2,500

30%
25%

2,000

20%
1,500
15%
1,000
10%
500

5%

0%
2007

2008
2009
Tinthucs dng

2010
%yoy

Ngun: Cc qun l dc, HBBS

Hai yu t quan trng ng gp vo tc tng trng cao ca th trng dc phm Vit

Nam l tc tng trng kinh t, tuy ang chm li trong nm 2010 nhng vn c d bo
mc tt (7-7,5%/nm trong giai on 2011-2015, theo EIU) v dn s ln (ng th 13 th
gii nm 2010).
Chi tiu bnh qun u ngi mc thp
Theo Cc qun l Dc, tin thuc bnh qun u ngi nm 2010 t 22,25 USD. Trong khi
, theo thng k ca IMS, trong nm 2010, chi tiu cho dc phm bnh qun ton th gii
mc 125 USD/ngi/nm. Vit Nam ng cui bng v chi tiu tin thuc u ngi nm 2010
trong cc th trng dc phm mi ni nhm 3 (bao gm Mexico, Th Nh K, Thi Lan,
Rumania, Ai Cp, Ukraine, Pakistan v Vit Nam) vi mc bnh qun chi tiu tin thuc u
ngi ca nhm ny l 56 USD/ nm. Cc th trng dc phm mi ni nhm 2 (bao gm

Ngi thc hin: Chuyn vin phn tch Nguyn Th Hong Mai


Brazil, n v Nga) c mc bnh qun chi tiu tin thuc u ngi l 32 USD /nm. Con s
tng ng ca Trung Quc (nhm 1) l 31 USD.
$ 140
120
100
80
60
40
20

Th gii

TrungQuc
Nhm2
Nhm3
VitNam
Tin thuc s dng BQ u ngi/nm

Ngun: IMS, HBBS

Ch s gi nhm hng dc phm v y t tng chm hn ch s CPI
Theo cng b chnh thc ca Tng cc Thng k, ch s gi nhm hng dc phm v y t
thng 5/2011 tng 1,20% so vi thng 4/2011, l mt trong nhng nhm hng c tc tng
trng khng cao trong khi ch s gi tiu dng ni chung tng 2,21%. So vi cng k nm
trc, ch s gi hng dc phm v y t tng 6,2%, thp hn nhiu so vi mc tng chung
gn 19,8%. Trong giai on t u nm 2009 n ht thng 5/2011, theo s liu cng b ca
TCTK, gi nhm hng dc phm v y t u tng chm hn ch s gi tiu dng ni chung,
c bit t u Q42010 tnh li y.

Ngun: Bloomberg, HBBS

Theo bo co ca Cc qun l Dc da trn s liu thng k ca mt s n v trong ngnh
(nh Cng ty DP TW1 ti H Ni, Cng ty Dc TW3 cho khu vc min Trung v Cty DP TW2,
phng Qun l dc-S y t TP HCM, vv cho TP HCM, vv), gi thuc trn th trng nm 2011
tnh n 20/5/2011 nhn chung n nh hoc c mc iu chnh (tng hoc gim) khng ng
k.

Ngi thc hin: Chuyn vin phn tch Nguyn Th Hong Mai


Tuy nhin, gi trn th trng c s bin ng ln
Cc ngun tin bo ch cng nh BMI u a tin v mt lot cc cuc kho st gi thuc ti
HCM v H Ni cho thy nhng mc tng gi mnh vi bin iu chnh bin ng t 3-30%.
Quyt nh iu chnh t gi VNDUSD thm 9,3% ca NHNN vo gia thng 2/2011 c tc
ng trc tip ln mt bng gi thuc c ngun gc nhp khu cng nh thuc sn xut trong
nc do ngnh Dc Vit Nam phi nhp khu trn 80% nguyn liu u vo. ng thi, trn
50% tr gi thuc s dng trong nc cng phi nhp khu t bn ngoi.Ngoi ra mt s yu t
khc nh tng gi in (15,28% t thng 3/2011), gi xng (gn 30% trong nhng thng u
nm), vv cng y chi ph u vo cho sn xut ca ngnh Dc tng ln v y gi bn u
ra ln. Thuc cha v phng bnh l mt hng thuc danh mc mt hng thc hin bnh n gi
v do , Nh nc qun l gi v cc doanh nghip sn xut v kinh doanh Dc phm phi
ng k gi bn. Tuy nhin, nhiu doanh nghip Dc phm ng k mc gi cao hn rt
nhiu so vi gi thc t t nhiu nm trc v do , to iu kin cho vic tng gi mnh
trong thi gian gn y m vn nm trong khun kh cho php.
2. Thng k doanh nghip nim yt Q12011
T l hon thnh k hoch doanh thu v li nhun nm mc tt
Tnh chung cho cc cng ty dc phm nim yt c s liu Q12011, t l hon thnh k
hoch doanh thu v li nhun nm u t trn 24%. Theo thng k d liu lch s qua cc
nm 2007-2010, c th thy doanh thu v li nhun rng ca Q1 thng chim khong 22%
kt qu ca c nm. Nh vy, tnh bnh qun cho ngnh, cc doanh nghip dc phm nim
yt s c th hon thnh k hoch ra cho nm. Tuy nhin, mt s doanh nghip nh t l
hon thnh k hoch li nhun rng ca DHT v SPM ch t t l rt thp (9-10%) do cc bin
ng v gi nguyn vt liu v cc yu t u vo khc nh cp trn.
Mt s ch tiu ti chnh quan trng kh n nh hoc ci thin nh
Ch tiu li nhun rng bin bnh qun Q12011 kh n nh so vi cng k nm 2010 trong khi
cc ch s ROA v ROE tng nh th hin du hiu ci thin kh nng qun l ti sn ca cc
doanh nghip; ch s ROA v ROE 4 qu tnh n ht Q12011 t ln lt 11,65% v 20,16%
so vi cc con s tng ng nm 2010 l 10,96% v 19,25%.
Mt bng gi c phiu ngnh ang mc kh hp dn
Ch s PE v PB bnh qun ca cc cng ty dc phm nim yt hin nay mc kh hp dn,
tng ng l 6,5 v gn 1,4, thp hn so vi cc ch s chung ca th trng (i din l ca
VN-Index) l 9,33 v 1,66. Trong , c 5 c phiu dc phm nim yt mc PE cao hn mc
bnh qun chung ca ngnh v 2 c phiu c mc PB cao hn mc bnh qun chung ca
ngnh. DHG, c phiu c mc vn ha ln nht trong ngnh v l c phiu c bn tt, tuy c
mc PE cao hn bnh qun ngnh nhng vn thp hn kh nhiu so vi bnh qun th trng
(8,56x so vi 9,33x) mc gi 125.000 VND/c phiu (ngy 22/6/2011).

Ngi thc hin: Chuyn vin phn tch Nguyn Th Hong Mai


PH LC- Thng k mt s ch tiu kt qu hot ng doanh nghip nim yt Q12011

Cty
AMV
DBT
DCL
DHG
DHT
DMC
IMP
LDP
MKP
MKV
OPC
PMC
SPM
TRA
VMD

Vn ha DTT Q1'11
T VND
T VND
33.2
2.50
53.7
114.82
171.5
188.62
3,394.1
579.31
109.2
140.90
367.6
249.57
639.0
176.97
59.9
71.41
375.8
242.62
10.5
9.11
267.0
101.63
123.2
61.44
610.4
65.50
491.1
206.33
183.2 1,566.64
Ngnh
VN Index

LNR
Q1'11
T VND
0.06
2.65
14.88
88.13
2.25
17.51
21.58
3.04
18.75
0.42
18.90
8.68
13.66
17.38
8.92

% KH DT
%
N/A
N/A
N/A
25.86%
23.88%
22.25%
22.12%
35.00%
25.54%
N/A
29.89%
N/A
16.05%
19.10%
23.28%
24.30%

%KH
LNR/DTT LNR/DTT
LNR
2010
12M
%
%
%
N/A
15.8%
15.99%
N/A
2.6%
2.55%
N/A
7.5%
7.55%
30.92%
17.9%
17.94%
9.99%
2.5%
2.48%
18.88%
8.6%
8.64%
28.78%
10.7%
10.67%
25.35%
6.4%
6.41%
27.17%
7.4%
7.42%
N/A
4.5%
4.51%
42.70%
16.6%
16.64%
N/A
13.9%
13.90%
9.10%
36.7%
36.68%
21.73%
7.9%
7.94%
31.09%
0.5%
0.48%
24.57% 10.64%
10.65%

ROA
2010 ROA 12M
%
%
6.29%
5.37%
4.57%
5.18%
6.89%
6.02%
22.73% 20.68%
5.42%
5.40%
11.85% 12.43%
11.21%
9.73%
16.90% 16.77%
14.12% 13.87%
6.82%
6.79%
14.37% 12.74%
26.76% 24.55%
13.14% 12.19%
12.55% 11.62%
1.09%
1.01%
11.65% 10.96%

ROE
2010
%
7.34%
15.11%
18.18%
32.16%
14.26%
17.49%
13.97%
39.11%
18.00%
13.04%
19.43%
32.92%
21.29%
20.63%
19.42%
20.16%

ROE 12M EPS 12M

%
VND
7.19%
419
16.87% 4,323
17.40% 5,767
28.98% 14,600
13.67% 3,432
17.95% 5,268
12.49% 5,448
34.60% 7,310
18.23% 7,758
12.37% 1,528
18.21% 6,959
31.54% 5,103
20.01% 8,804
20.79% 5,525
18.46% 3,675
19.25%

BVPS
31/3/11
VND
5,826
25,621
33,140
50,384
25,095
29,349
43,632
21,126
42,552
12,357
38,209
16,177
43,991
26,580
19,903

Trailing PE
(22/6/11) PB (22/6/11)
Ln
Ln
18.86
1.36
4.21
0.71
3.00
0.52
8.56
2.48
7.72
1.06
3.99
0.72
7.71
0.96
3.21
1.11
5.26
0.96
6.48
0.80
4.68
0.85
3.72
1.17
4.95
0.99
7.20
1.50
6.12
1.13
6.50
1.39
9.33
1.66

Ngun: Stoxx, HBBS

Ngi thc hin: Chuyn vin phn tch Nguyn Th Hong Mai

PHNG PHN TCH

Cng ty TNHH Chng khon Ngn hng TMCP Nh H Ni
Tng 4B - 2C Vn Phc Kim M Ba nh H Ni
Tel: (+84) 04.3.726.2222 - Fax: (+84) 04.3.726.2305

Nguyn Th Hng Nhung

Bo Ngc

S my l.: 9101

S my l.: 9103

Email: nhungnh@hbbs.com.vn

Email: ngocdb@hbbs.com.vn

Ng M Chi

Trn Hong Sn

S my l.: 9102

S my l.: 9104

Email: chinm@hbbs.com.vn

Email: sonth@hbbs.com.vn

Nguyn Th Hong Mai

S my l.: 9105
Email: mainth@hbbs.com.vn

IU KHON MIN TR
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c cam kt hay m bo g i vi tnh chnh xc, hon chnh ca cc thng tin trong nghin cu ny. Cc quan im m
chng ti a ra c th thay i m khng cn thng bo trc. Ti liu ny c phc v mc ch lu hnh rng ri. Tt c
cc khuyn ngh a ra trong ti liu ny u khng nhm phc v cc mc tiu u t c th, hay nhu cu ring ca bt k
ngi c c th no. Ti liu ny ch nhm mc ch cung cp thng tin, khng nhm thay i quyt nh ca ngi c. Cc
nh u t nn c t vn v ti chnh v php lut ra cc quyt nh u t. Habubank Securities khng chu trch nhim
i vi bt c thit hi trc tip hay gin tip pht sinh t vic s dng hoc lin quan n ti liu ny theo bt c hnh thc
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