Bi 6.

nh gi tri phiu v c phiu

Khi nim nh gi tri phiu Tng quan v tri phiu Hin gi ca c phiu thng Xc nh cc tham s bng m hnh chit khu c tc C hi tng trng M hnh gia tng c tc & m hnh NPVGO T s P/E

I. Khi nim
- Tri phiu l cng c n di hn do Chnh ph hoc cng ty pht hnh nhm huy ng vn di hn. - Mnh gi: gi tr c ghi trn b mt ca chng khon hay l gi tr c cng b ca chng khon. - Gi th trng: gi tr ca chng khon c giao dch trn th trng. - Gi tr l thuyt: gi tr m chng khon nn c da trn nhng yu t c lin quan khi nh gi chng khon .

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Cc yu t ca mt tri phiu
T chc pht hnh Thi hn Mnh gi Li sut ca tri phiu (coupon rate) Cch thc tr li Khng tr li nh k Tr li nh k Hng nm Na nm

II. nh gi tri phiu II.

Tri phiu c k hn khng hng li nh k. - Ngi nm gi tri phiu khng nhn c li nh k m ch nhn c s tin bng mnh gi ca tri phiu khi o hn. - Trc CF t0 t1 t2 t3 F

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II. nh gi tri phiu

- Cng thc xc nh gi tr ca tri phiu khng nhn li nh k PV = F/(1 +r)t F: Mnh gi tri phiu nhn c ti nm th t (face value). r: t l li hng nm t: k hn ca tri phiu

II. nh gi tri phiu

Tri phiu c k hn - hng li nh k. - Ngi mua tri phiu c hng li hng nm vi li sut cng b trn mnh gi tri phiu v thu hi li vn gc bng mnh gi khi tri phiu o hn. - Trc CF t1 C t2 C t3 C +F

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II. nh gi tri phiu

- Cng thc xc nh gi tr tri phiu c k hn - hng li nh k PV = C/1+r + C/(1+r)2 + + C+F/(1+r)t PV = C*Atr + F/(1+r)t Trong : C: li nhn c hng k F: mnh gi tri phiu (M: $1.000) r: li sut tri phiu t: k hn tri phiu

II. nh gi tri phiu

Tri phiu khng c thi hn - Tri phiu khng bao gi o hn, ngi nm gi tri phiu c nhn li mi mi. - Gi tr ca tri phiu ny c xc nh bng gi tr hin ti ca CF u v hn m tri phiu ny mang li. - Trc CF t1 t2 t3 t4 C - Cng thc: PV = C/r
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III. Tng quan v tri phiu

T l li sut v gi tri phiu. VD: Tri phiu c k hn 2 nm,li hng nm nhn c l $100, li sut 10%, mnh gi $1.000 Gi tri phiu? - Li sut tng ln l 12% Gi tri phiu? - Li sut gim xung 8% Gi tri phiu?

III. Tng quan v tri phiu

T l li sut v gi tri phiu. - Khi li sut trn th trng bng li sut tri phiu th gi tri phiu bng mnh gi. - Khi li sut gia tng lm cho gi tri phiu gim, li sut gim lm cho gi tri phiu tng. - Cu hi: Phn tch s bin ng gi tri phiu?

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III. Tng quan v tri phiu

Li sut u t lc tri phiu o hn VD: Mua tri phiu vi gi $1.035,67, k hn 2 nm, mnh gi $1.000, li sut tri phiu 10%. Vy Li sut u t tri phiu l bao nhiu?

IV. Hin gi ca c phiu thng IV.

Tng quan - C phiu thng l chng nhn u t vo cng ty c phn, ngi mua c quyn phn chia li nhun hng nm t kt qu hot ng ca cng ty, v c s hu mt phn gi tr ti sn ca cng ty tng ng vi gi tr c phiu nm gi. - C phiu thng thng c hai loi CF pht sinh: c tc nhn c hng nm v gi bn c phiu khi c phiu c bn.

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IV. Hin gi ca c phiu thng

Tng quan M hnh nh gi c phiu c dng nh sau:

IV. Hin gi ca c phiu thng IV.

nh gi mt s loi c phiu - C phiu c c tc hng nm khng i. P0 = Div1/(1+r) + Div2/(1+r)2 + = Div/r Trong : Div1 = Div2 = = Div - C phiu c c tc gia tng u hng nm P0 = Div/1+r + Div(1+g)/(1+r)2= Div/r-g - C phiu c c tc gia tng vi tc thay i.

P0 = Div1/1+r + Div2/(1+r)2 += Divt/(1+r)t

t =1

- Nh u t mun pht sinh CF sm hn, nh u t bn li c phiu, gi bn c phiu ph thuc vo c tc nhn c sau khi c phiu c bn. VD: Bn li c phiu sau 2 nm nm gi, hin gi c phiu c xc nh nh sau: P0 = Div1/(1+r) + Div2/(1+r)2 + P2/(1+r)2
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IV. Hin gi ca c phiu thng

- C phiu c c tc gia tng vi tc thay i. VD: c phiu c c tc gia tng vi tc g1 trong 3 nm u, cc nm cn li tng vi tc g2. t1
Div1

IV. Hin gi ca c phiu thng

Cng thc: P3 = Div4/r g2 P0 = Div1/1+r + Div1(1+g1)/(1+r)2 + Div1(1+g1)2/(1+r)3 +P3/(1+r)3

t2
Div1(1+g1)

t3
Div1(1+g1)2

t4
Div3(1+g2)

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V. Xc nh cc tham s bng m hnh chit khu c tc

T l gia tng c tc: g g = T l gi li * ROE VD: Cng ty c li nhun $2.000.000, t l gi li 40%, t sut sinh li trn vn c phn(ROE) = 16%.

V. Xc nh cc tham s bng m hnh chit khu c tc

T sut sinh li r P0 = Div/r g r = Div/P0 + g VD: Li nhun: 2.000.000*1,064 = 2.128.000 S c phiu thng: 1.000.000, P0 = $10. r = ?

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VI. C hi tng trng VI.

Cng ty chi tr ton b c tc. T l tr c tc 100%. Gi tr c phiu = EPS/r = DPS/r Cng ty gi li c tc ti u t. Gi tr c phiu = EPS/r + NPVGO NPVGO: Gi tr tng thm t d n mi c u t bng RE VD: Li nhun $1.000.000, s c phiu: 100.000, EPS = $10. Cng ty c c hi u t 1 triu vo mt d n, kim c $210.000/k, r = 10%. NPVGO/c phiu? Gi tr c phiu?

VII. M hnh gia tng c tc & m hnh NPVGO

VD: EPS =$10, tr c tc 40%, gi li 60%: $6, u t $6 kim c $1,2 (6*20%), r = 16%, g = 12% M hnh gia tng c tc: P0? M hnh NPVGO P0?

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VII. M hnh gia tng c tc & m hnh NPVGO VII.

Kt lun: - Gi c phiu xc nh theo phng php gia tng c tc bng gi tr c phiu c xc nh theo phng php c hi tng trng. Div/r g = Div/r + NPVGO

VIII. VIII. T s P/E

Price per share = EPS/r + NPVGO Price per share/EPS = 1/r + NPVGO/EPS

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