Thayer Consultancy

ABN # 65 648 097 123

Background Briefing: Chinas Heir Apparent to Visit Vietnam - 1 Carlyle A. Thayer December 13, 2011

[clientnamedeleted] Xi Jinping is to visit Vietnam from 20 to 22 December. Could you provide your assessment of this visit. One thing to consider Xi may be being given the South ChinaSeaissueasakeyfinalpolicytestaheadofthesuccessionnextyear. ANSWER: Immediately after Vietnam held its 11th national party congress it dispatchedaspecialenvoytoChinatoinvitePresidentandPartyGeneralSecretary HuJintaoandotherhighlevelleaderstoVietnam.TheChineseextendedareciprocal invitation. It was Vietnam that made the first move with the dispatch of Secretary GeneralNguyenPhuTrongtoChina.Trong'svisitwasveryimportantinarrestingthe downwardtrendinbilateralrelations,causedmainlybydisputesintheSouthChina Sea. Xi Jinpingisnotonly ahighlevelleaderbuttheheirapparent.Afterrelationswith the United States probably no other foreign policy issue looms so large to the ChinesethanlossofstandinginSoutheastAsia. Chinaissettohostseniorofficials fromthetenASEANstatesinJanuarytobeginworkonimplementingtheGuidelines on the DOC [Declaration on Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea] and to consideramorebindingCodeofConduct.ChinamustpreventASEANfromforminga unitedfront.AndChinamustmovetoamoreconciliatorystancetoholdoffU.S.and othermajorpowerintervention.XiJinpinghashistaskcutoutforhimtoworkout an acceptable modus vivendi with Vietnam. This is key to isolating the Philippines thatisshowingeverysignsofbecomingmoreassertiveincludingtakingSouthChina SeaissuestotheInternationalTribunalonLawoftheSea.Nodoubtthattheofficial reportingofXi'svisitwillbeupbeatandgeneral.Butsomehardbargainingwilltake place as well. If Xi is to step up to China's top posts he must prove his mettle in dealingwithVietnam.

Thayer Consultancy
ABN # 65 648 097 123

Background Briefing: Chinas Heir Apparent to Visit Vietnam - 2 Carlyle A. Thayer December 17, 2011

[clientnamedeleted] Chinas Vice President Xi Jinping is visiting Hanoi next week. Is there anything to watchoutfor?HowdoyouthinktheywillhandletheSouthChinaSeaissue?Howdo youseethisvisitinthecontextofXispendingpromotion? ANSWER: The context of Xi's visit is the dispatch of a special envoy to China immediatelyfollowingthe11thnationalcongressoftheVietnamCommunistParty. ThespecialenvoycarriedaninvitationforHuJintaoandotherhighlevelleadersto visit Vietnam. China responded by inviting Vietnam to send highlevel leaders to Beijing.VietnamhadlittlealternativebuttosenditsSecretaryGeneraltoChinafirst. Xi is not the current General Secretary so his visit is not in strict reciprocation for NguyenPhuTrong'svisitinOctober. XiJinping'svisitislargelyagettoknowyouvisitpriortohispresumptiveelevationto thepostsofpartyGeneralSecretaryandstatePresident.HewasinvitedtoVietnam by both the communist party and the state vice president. Xi will hold a round of talks with his opposite numbers and likely be received by the key leaders, state president Truong Tan Sang; prime minister Nguyen Tan Dung; and party Secretary GeneralNguyenPhuTrong. Xi will discuss a broad range of issues. Since China is scheduled to host the first meetingofjointWorking Group to ImplementtheDOC*GuidelinesinJanuaryitis very likely that South China Sea issues will be raised. Expect no dramatic announcementbutupbeatandgeneralstatementsontheSouthChinaSeaandthe ChinaVietnamAgreementoBasicPrinciplestoSettleMaritimeDisputes.Thelatter referstothewatersformingthemouthoftheGulfofTonkin. TheVietnamesearelikelytobefirmontheSouthChinaSeainprivate.Xiwillhaveto steeracautiouscourseholdingouttheprospectsforsomeprogressontheDOCbut notenoughtoundermineChina'sposition. Xi's visit is reflective of China's decision to step back from its counterproductive assertivenessinthefirsthalfoftheyear. China is now playing a quiet diplomatic game in the hopes to undermining any possible role by the US as facilitator. China's currently softly softly approach is designedtoplayondifferenceswithinASEAN.XiwillbekeentokeepVietnamfrom

2 supportingthePhilippinesifitshoulddecidedtotaketheSouthChinaSeaissueto theInternationalTribunalonLawoftheSea. *DeclarationonConductofPartiesintheSouthChinaSea