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Kinh T Lng

GVHD: Th.s Nguyn Quang Cng

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Kinh T Lng

GVHD: Th.s Nguyn Quang Cng

LI M U
Kinh t lng l mt mn khoa hc cung cp cc phng php phn tch v mt
lng mi quan h gia cc hin tng kinh t cng vi s tc ng qua li gia
chng da trn c s cc s liu thu thp t thc t. Nhm cng c thm cc gi
thit kinh t t a ra cc quyt nh ng dn hn.
Cc phng php, cc m hnh kinh t lng,..trong mn kinh t lng
gip chng ta c th phn tch v d bo c cc hin tng kinh t.
hu ht cc quc gia trn th gii, u khng phn bit khuynh hng
chnh tr. Mi quc gia u t xc nh ring cho mnh mt chin lc ring
pht trin kinh t - x hi. Tng trng v pht trin kinh t l mc tiu u tin
ca tt c cc nc trn th gii, l thc o ch yu v s tin b trong mi giai
on ca cc quc gia. Khng ring mt t nc no c, Vit Nam cng vy
lun xem vic pht trin kinh t l mt nhim v rt bc thit. Vit Nam sau hn
20 nm i mi, c nhng bc pht trin ng k, t nc ta t nn kinh t
thi bao cp tr tr chuyn sang nn kinh t th trng theo nh hng XHCN.
Tng thu nhp quc dn hng nm tng ln . Hn th na t nc chng ta
hin nay ang gia nhp vo nn kinh t ton cu WTO, hi nhp kinh t quc t .
y l mt bc tin rt quan trng v m ra cho nn kinh t nc nh nhiu ha
hn.
Tng trng kinh t din ra n biu hin tc tng trng GDP ( GNP,
NNP,.) ngy cng cao v n nh trong thi gian di, nn kinh t s c nhiu
thnh tu to ln v nh vy m cht lng cuc sng ca con ngi ngy cng
cao, p ng y cc vn v gio dc o to, y t, Nh vy thu nhp v
mc sng ca ngi dn cng n nh th t nc cng pht trin. Chnh v vy
m vic tng trng kinh t c xem nh l vn hp dn trong nghin cu
kinh t n chnh l tiu im phn nh s thay i b mt nn kinh t quc gia..
nh gi nn kinh t ca mt quc gia, cc nh kinh t nh gi qua tng thu
nhp quc dn GNI ( Gross National Income ) hay tng sn phm quc gia GNP
( Gross National Product ).
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GVHD: Th.s Nguyn Quang Cng

Mt yu t rt quan trng khng th thiu c th nh gi v tnh hnh


tng trng kinh t l thu nhp. V vy vi mong mun l tm hiu v s nh
hng ca cc yu t n tn thu nhp m nhm chng em quyt nh chn
ti : Nghin cu s nh hng ca cc yu t n tng thu nhp Vit Nam t
nm 1990 n 2009 . nghin cu s nh hng ca cc yu t n tng thu
nhp chng em s dng phng php phn tch hi quy OLS ( Ordinary Least
Square) trong kinh t lng.

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GVHD: Th.s Nguyn Quang Cng

1. Pht trin vn .
i vi mi nn kinh t bt k nc no, mt khu vc no hay mt chu lc no
trong qu trnh xy dng v pht trin kinh t th mc tiu hng u ca h l
lm th no c c mt nn kinh t vng mnh v pht trin c mt v tr quan
trng trn trng quc t. Vy mt cu hi t ra l h phi lm g c c
iu ? Vng iu ng ngha vi thu nhp quc dn ca h phi cao v n
nh .
Thu nhp quc dn l kt qu ca qu trnh kinh t. Vai tr ca n trong mt quc
gia l v cng quan trng. Thu nhp quc dn phn nh trnh tng trng v
pht trin kinh t ca quc gia . Da vo n nh gi mc tng trng v
pht trin kinh t trong cc nm cng nh gia cc nc vi nhau.
Trong nhng nm qua nhn chung tnh hnh thu nhp quc dn ca Vit Nam c
nhiu bin i su sc, c nhng lc th rt n nh, c nhng lc th rt cao,
nhng c nhng lc th xung rt thp. Kt qu y l kt qu ca nhiu nguyn
nhn tc ng, chng ta hy cng tm hiu nhng yu t tc ng qua ti ca
nhm: "Nghin cu s nh hng ca cc yu t n tng thu nhp ca Vit
Nam t nm 1990 n 2009."
2. Ngun gc ca m hnh t l thuyt.
2.1. Khi nim.
Tng thu nhp quc dn (Gross national income GNI) l ch s kinh t xc nh
tng thu nhp ca mt quc gia trong mt thi gian, thng l mt nm.
2.2. Phng php tnh tng thu nhp quc dn(GNI).
Tng thu nhp quc dn c tnh bao gm tng gi tr hng ha v dch v to ra
trong quc gia, cng vi thu nhp nhn c t bn ngoi (ch yu l li vay v c
tc), tr i nhng khon tng t phi tr ra bn ngoi c thc hin trong mt
nm. c thc hin nh sau:
GNI = GDP + NIA Ti
Trong :

GNI: Tng thu nhp quc dn.


GDP: Tng sn phm quc ni.

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NIA: Thu nhp t yu t rng nc ngoi.


Ti: thu gin thu.
* Tng sn phm quc ni (GDP) l tng gi tr tnh bng tin ca lung sn
phm cui cng m mt quc gia to ra. GDP bao gm ton b gi tr th trng
ca cc hng ha v dch v cui cng m cc h gia nh, cc doanh nghip,
chnh ph mua v khon xut khu rng c thc hin trong thi gian mt nm.
c th hin nh sau:
GDP = C + I + G + X M
Trong :

GDP: Tng sn phm quc ni

C: Tiu dng ca h gia nh (hng ha c mua bn trn th trng, khng tnh


nhng sn phm t tc t cp)
I: Tng u t: I = In + De
In: u t t bn m rng quy m sn xut
De: u t b p TSC (khu hao TSC)
G: Chi mua hng ha v DV ca chnh ph (Nhng khon tin chi ra tng ng
vi mt lng hng ho v dch v c sn xut ra trong nn kinh t)
X:

Xut khu

M:

Nhp khu

* NIA - Thu nhp rng t nc ngoi: l hiu s gia thu nhp t cc yu t xut
khu v thu nhp t cc yu t nhp khu
NIA = thu nhp t cc yu t xut khu - thu nhp t cc yu t nhp khu.
* Thu gin thu (Indirect tax) l loi thu c cng vo gi, l mt b phn cu
thnh ca gi c hng ho.Thu gin thu l hnh thc thu gin tip qua mt n v
trung gian (thng l cc doanh nghip) nh vo ngi tiu dng.Thu gin
thu l thu m ngi chu thu v ngi np thu khng cng l mt. Chng hn,
chnh ph nh thu vo cng ty (cng ty np thu) v cng ty li chuyn thu ny
vo chi ph tnh vo gi hng ha v dch v, do vy i tng chu thu l ngi
tiu dng cui cng. L loi thu nh vo thu nhp ca cc thnh phn dn c,

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GVHD: Th.s Nguyn Quang Cng

bao gm cc khon sau: Thu mn bi, Thu GTGT, Thu doanh thu, Thu trc
b, Thu ti nguyn,Thu Xut Nhp Khu, Thu tiu th c bit.
Do , tng thu nhp quc dn bao gm: chi tiu dng c nhn, tng u t ca
dn c, chi tiu dng ca chnh ph, thu nhp thun t ti sn nc ngoi (sau
khi cc thu), v tng gi tr hng ha v dch v xut khu v tr i hai khon:
tng gi tr hng ha v dch v nhp khu v thu gin thu.
Thu nhp quc dn tng t nh Tng sn lng quc gia GNP, ch khc bit
ch GNP khng tr i thu gin thu.
V d: Li nhun ca mt cng ty hot ng nc M ti Vng quc Anh s
c tnh vo GNI Hoa K v Anh GDP, nhng s khng c tnh vo Vng
quc Anh hoc M GNI GDP. Tng t, nu mt quc gia cng tr nn mc n,
v dnh mt lng ln thu nhp phc v n ny s c phn nh trong mt GNI
gim nhng khng phi l GDP gim. Tng t, nu mt quc gia bn ra cc ti
nguyn ca mnh cho cc thc th bn ngoi quc gia ca h ny cng s c
phn nh theo thi gian trong gim GNI, nhng khng gim GDP. iu ny s
lm cho vic s dng GDP hp dn hn cho cc chnh tr gia cc nc c tng
n quc gia v gim ti sn. GNP cng l mt trong s t nhng khi nim m i
tay trong tay vi GDP, GNI, NNI.
3. L thuyt a bin c lp, cc bin ph thuc vo m hnh.
3.1. Dn s.
Khi dn s tng nhanh th thu nhp u ngi cng thp. Ngc li, mc thu nhp
bnh qun u ngi c tc ng nht nh n t l sinh v t ca dn s.
3.2. Gi tr sn phm nng lm ng nghip.
3.2.1. Gi tr sn phm nng nghip.
Nng nghip l mt trong nhng ngnh kinh t lu i, to ra sn phm thit yu
nht cho cuc sng. Trong xu th cng nghip ha, hin i ha nh hin nay,
nng nghip vn gi mt vai tr quan trng trong nn kinh t ca mi quc gia.
3.2.2. Gi tr sn phm lm nghip.

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Lm nghip c nh ngha l "khoa hc v thc hnh qun l rng v rng".


Lnh kim lm ngh thut l s pha trn cc loi t trng cy thnh mt n v
gn kt sinh sng, c gi l mt rng.
3.2.3. Gi tr sn phm lm nghip.
Ng nghip l ngnh kinh t c chc nng v nhim v nui trng v khai thc cc
loi thu sn, ch yu l c cc ao h, m, rung nc, sng ngi, trong ni a
v bin. Ni chung, ng nghip l mt thc th tham gia trong vic nng cao
hoc thu hoch c, c xc nh bi mt s c quan phi l ngh c.
3.3. Gi tr xut, nhp khu.
Xut khu v nhp khu (X v M):
- Xut khu: l nhng hng ho c sn xut ra trong nc c bn ra nc
ngoi (lng tin thu c do bn hng ha v dch v ra nc ngoi lm tng
GDP).
- Nhp khu l nhng hng c sn xut ra nc ngoi, nhng c mua
phc v nhu cu ni a (lng tin tra cho nc ngoi do mua hng ha v dch
v lm gim GDP).
Nh vy, ta c khi nim xut khu rng (net exports):
NX = X M
3.4. Gi tr sn phm cng nghip v xy dng.
3.4.1. Gi tr sn xut cng nghip.
L ch tiu tng hp phn nh kt qu hot ng sn xut kinh doanh ca ngnh
cng nghip to ra di dng sn phm vt cht v dch v trong thi gian nht
nh, thng l mt nm.
Gi tr sn xut cng nghip bao gm: Gi tr ca nguyn vt liu, nng lng, ph
tng thay th, chi ph dch v sn xut, khu hao ti sn c nh, chi ph lao ng,
thu sn xut v gi tr thng d to ra trong cu thnh gi tr sn phm cng
nghip. Theo qui nh hin nay, gi tr sn xut cng nghip gm cc yu t sau
y:

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GVHD: Th.s Nguyn Quang Cng

Gi tr thnh phm l gi tr ca nhng sn phm c sn xut t nguyn vt


liu ca bn thn doanh nghip, ca khch hng a n gia cng, kt thc
khu ch bin cui cng ti doanh nghip v lm xong th tc nhp kho; gi tr
ca bn thnh phm, cng c, dng c, m hnh t ch xut bn ra ngoi doanh
nghip (K c kt qu hot ng ca cc b phn khc khng phi l hot ng
cng nghip trong doanh nghip nhng khng c hch ton ring).
Gi tr dch v cng nghip cho bn ngoi doanh nghip, bao gm:
Gi tr khi phc li hoc lm tng thm gi tr s dng m khng
lm thay i cng dng ban u ca sn phm (ch c tnh phn gi
tr dch v thc t thanh ton vi bn ngoi).
Gi tr thu c t hot ng cho thu thit b my mc trong dy
chuyn sn xut cng nghip ca doanh nghip.
Gi tr ca ph phm, th phm, ph phm, ph liu thu hi c tiu th.
Nhng gi tr ny gm:
Gi tr ca nhng ph phm (hay cn gi l sn phm song song)
c to ra cng vi sn phm chnh trong qu trnh sn xut cng
nghip, v d nh xay xt sn phm chnh l go, ph phm l cm...
Gi tr ca nhng ph phm, ph liu thu hi do qu trnh sn xut
cng nghip to ra.
Gi tr chnh lch gia cui k v u k ca na thnh phm, sn phm
ang ch to d dang trong doanh nghip.
Ch tiu gi tr sn xut cng nghip c tnh theo gi thc t ca ngi sn
xut (Gi bn bun cng nghip) v gi so snh.
Sn phm cng nghip l nhng sn phm vt cht v dch v do hot ng sn
xut cng nghip ca doanh nghip to ra (khng phn bit sn xut t nguyn vt
liu ca doanh nghip hay nguyn vt liu ca khch hng a n gia cng), kt
thc phn ch bin cui cng ti doanh nghip v lm xong th tc nhp kho
trc 24 gi ngy cui cng ca k bo co.

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Sn phm cng nghip c tnh theo n v hin vt, hin vt qui c hoc n
v gi tr.
3.4.2. Gi tr sn xut dch v.
Dch v trong kinh t hc, c hiu l nhng th tng t nh hng ha nhng l
phi vt cht. C nhng sn phm thin v sn phm hu hnh v nhng sn phm
thin hn v sn phm dch v, tuy nhin a s l nhng sn phm nm trong
khong gia sn phm hng ha - dch v. Dch v c cc c tnh sau:
Tnh ng thi (Simultaneity): sn xut v tiu dng dch v xy ra
ng thi.
Tnh khng th tch ri (Inseparability): sn xut v tiu dng dch
v khng th tch ri. Thiu mt ny th s khng c mt kia.
Tnh cht khng ng nht (Variability): khng c cht lng ng
nht.
V hnh (Intangibility): khng c hnh hi r rt. Khng th thy
trc khi tiu dng.
Khng lu tr c (Perishability): khng lp kho lu tr nh
hng ha c.
4. Thit lp m hnh.
4.1. Cc bin trong m hnh.
STT

Tn
bin

Loi

Ph thuc

X2

c lp

X3

c lp

X4

c lp

X5

c lp

nh ngha
Tng thu nhp quc dn
(GNI)
Tng dn s
Tng sn phm nng lm
ng nghip
Tng sn phm cng nghip
v xy dng
Tng sn phm dch v

n v o

Ghi
ch

T ng
Nghn dn
T ng
T ng
T ng

4.2. Ngun d liu v cch thu thp d liu.


4.2.1. D liu.

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Tng hp s liu t trang Web tng cc thng k: http://www.gso.gov.vn.


4.2.2. Khng gian mu.
Kho st da trn s liu tng hp ca Dn s (nghn dn), Tng sn phm Nng
Lm - Ng nghip (nghn t), Tng sn phm Cng nghip & Xy Dng (nghn
t), Tng sn phm Dch V (nghn t) t nm 1990 n nm 2009. Nhm nhn
thy khng gian mu ln v mc tin tng xy dng cc m hnh
thng k.
4.2.3. M hnh tng th.
M hnh hi quy tuyn tnh c dng:
Y = 1 + 2X2i + 3X3i + 4X4i + 5X5i + Ui
Trong :
o 1: L thng s din t tung gc (h s chn) ca ng hi quy
tng th.
o 2: H s ca bin c lp dn s, hay khi bin X 1 thay i 1 n v
th bin ph thuc Y thay i gi tr trung bnh 2. Ta thy khi dn s
tng th tng thu nhp cng tng theo nh vy k vng 2 s dng.
o 3: H s ca bin c lp tng gi tr sn phm Nng Lm Ng
nghip, hay khi bin X2 thay i 1 n v th bin ph thuc Y thay
i gi tr trung bnh 3.
o 4: H s ca bin c lp tng gi tr sn phm Cng Nghip & Xy
Dng, hay khi bin X3 thay i 1 n v th bin ph thuc Y thay i
gi tr trung bnh 4.
o 5: H s ca bin c lp tng gi tr sn phm Dch V, hay khi
bin X4 thay i 1 n v th bin ph thuc Y thay i gi tr trung bnh
5.
o Ui: Sai s trong quan st th i.
Ta thy tng thu nhp mun tng ln th tng sn phm ca cc ngnh trong kinh
t cng phi tng ln. Nh vy k vng 3, 4, 5 s dng.

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5. Phn tch d liu.


5.1. Bng s liu.
Bng s liu tng hp t nm 1990 n nm 2009

Nm

Tng thu
nhp
(t ng)

Dn s
(nghn
dn)

1990
39284
66016,7
1991
72620
67242,4
1992
106757
68450,1
1993
134913
69644,5
1994
174017
70824,5
1995
228677
71995,5
1996
269654
73156,7
1997
308600
74306,9
1998
352836
75456,3
1999
392693
76596,7
2000
435319
77630,9
2001
474855
78621,0
2002
527056
79538,7
2003
603688
80468,4
2004
701906
81437,7
2005
822432
82393,5
2006
951456
83313,0
2007
1108752
84221,1
2008
1436955
85122,3
2009*
1567553
86024,6
Ghi ch: Nm 2009*: s liu s b

Tng sn
phm
NLNN
(t ng)
16252
31058
37513
41895
48968
62219
75514
80826
93073
101723
108356
111858
123383
138285
155992
175984
198798
232586
329886
346786

Tng sn
phm
CN&XD
(t ng)
9513
18252
30135
40535
51540
65820
80876
100595
117299
137959
162220
183515
206197
242126
287616
344224
404697
474423
591608
667323

Tng sn
phm DV
(t ng)
16190
27397
42884
57828
78026
100853
115646
132202
150645
160260
171070
185922
206182
233032
271699
319003
370771
436706
563544
644280

5.2. Biu biu din s liu c xy dng t Eviews:

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5.3. Thng k m t.
Kt qu cc thng k m t bng EViews:
Trong :
o Mean: Gi tr trung bnh.
o Median: S trung v.
o Maximum: Gi tr ln nht ca bin.
o Minimum: Gi tr nh nht ca bin.
o Skewness: lch.

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5.4. c lng m hnh.


Tnh ton bng Exel:

XTX =

( X T X ) 1

20,0
1532461,5
2510955,0
4216473,0
4284140,0

40,57819572
-0,00057096
-0,00001014
0,00002053
0,00000077

X TY

1532461,5
11815956642,8
202354253463
344068155919,6
347110445345

2510955,0
202354253463
47851097870,3
869209157879
845115135614

4216473,0
344068155919,6
869209157879,0
1605940772279
1546716119204

4284140,0
347110445345
545115135614
1546716119204
1498775709734

-0,00001014
-0,00000000
0,00000000
0,00000000
-0,00000000

0,00002053
-0,00000000
0,00000000
0,00000000
-0,00000000

0,00000077
0,00000000
-0,00000000
-0,00000000
0,00000000

-0,00057096
-0,00000000
-0,00000000
-0,00000000
-0,00000000
10710023,0
868694793638,9
2121078730416,0
3887654045633,0
3761584896545,0

-182187,991
2,731620983
1,299654903
1,119210509
0,510063388

Kt qu sau khi c lng v kim nh m hnh bng Excel c bn:

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SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R

0,999939

R Square

0,999877

Adjusted R Square

0,999844

Standard Error

5515,234

Observations

20

ANOVA
df
Regression

SS

MS

3,71E+12

9,28E+11

Residual

15

4,56E+08

30417806

Total

19

3,71E+12
Standard
Error
t Stat

Coefficients
Intercept

Significance F

30515,83

P-value

3,98E-29

Lower 95%

Upper 95%

Lower
95,0%

Upper
95,0%

-182188

35132,6

-5,18572

0,000111

-257071

-107305

-257071

-107305

X2

2,731621

0,496879

5,497557

6,13E-05

1,672548

3,790694

1,672548

3,790694

X3

1,299655

0,199519

6,513925

9,79E-06

0,874389

1,724921

0,874389

1,724921

X4

1,119211

0,086959

12,87048

1,65E-09

0,933861

1,30456

0,933861

1,30456

X5

0,510063

0,157377

3,24103

0,005483

0,174622

0,845504

0,174622

0,845504

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Kt qu sau khi c lng v kim nh m hnh bng Eviews:

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Vy m hnh c c lng l:
Y = - 182187,991+ 2,731620983X2 + 1,299654903X3 + 1,119210509X4 +
0,510063388X5
ngha ca cc tham s c lng :
i vi 1 : Khi tng dn s, tng sn phm nng lm ng nghip,
tng sn phm cng nghip v xy dng, tng sn phm dch v bng 0
th tng thu nhp quc dn(GNI) t gi tr nh nht v bng -182187,991
t ng.
i vi

2 : Khi tng sn phm nng lm ng nghip, tng

sn phm cng nghip v xy dng, tng sn phm dch v khng i v


nu tng dn s tng (gim) 1 nghn dn th tng thu nhp quc dn
(GNI) tng (gim) 2,731620983 t ng.
i vi 3 : Khi tng dn s, tng sn phm cng nghip v xy
dng, tng sn phm dch v khng i v nu tng sn phm nng lm
ng nghip tng (gim) 1 t ng th tng thu nhp quc dn (GNI) tng
(gim) 1,299654903 t ng.
i vi 4 : Khi tng dn s, tng sn phm nng lm ng nghip,
tng sn phm dch v khng i v nu tng sn phm cng nghip v
xy dng tng (gim) 1 t ng th tng thu nhp quc dn (GNI) tng
(gim) 1,119210509 t ng.
i vi 5 : Khi tng dn s, tng sn phm nng lm ng nghip,
tng sn phm cng nghip v xy dng khng i v nu tng sn phm
dch v tng (gim) 1 t ng th tng thu nhp quc dn (GNI) tng
(gim) 0,510063388 t ng.
5.5. Ma trn tng quan: R.
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Kt qu tnh ton bng Exel c bn:

R=

GVHD: Th.s Nguyn Quang Cng

0,9182758

0,997211774

0,998779774 0,998971422

0,918275826

0,907320697

0,912648798 0,910299579

0,997211774

0,9073207

0,993264097 0,997530222

0,998779774

0,9126488

0,993264097

1 0,996964129

0,998971422

0,9102996

0,997530222

0,996964129

Kt qu bng Eviews:

ngha ca h s xc nh v h s tng quan:


ngha ca h s xc nh:
V 0.8 <

R 2 = 0,999877

< 1, nn m hnh ph hp cao.

ngha ca h s tng quan:


o Mi quan h tng quan gia tng thu nhp quc dn (GNI) v tng dn s l
cht ch v cng chiu.
o Mi quan h tng quan gia tng thu nhp quc dn (GNI) v tng sn phm
nng lm ng nghip l cht ch v cng chiu.
o Mi quan h tng quan gia tng thu nhp quc dn (GNI) v tng sn phm
cng nghip v xy dng l cht ch v cng chiu.
o Mi quan h tng quan gia tng thu nhp quc dn (GNI) v tng sn phm
dch v l cht ch v cng chiu.

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GVHD: Th.s Nguyn Quang Cng

o Mi quan h tng quan gia tng dn s v tng sn phm nng lm ng


nghip l cht ch v cng chiu.
o Mi quan h tng quan gia tng dn s v tng sn phm cng nghip v
xy dng l cht ch v cng chiu.
o Mi quan h tng quan gia tng dn s v tng sn phm dch v l cht ch
v cng chiu.
o Mi quan h tng quan gia tng sn phm nng lm ng nghip v tng sn
phm cng nghip v xy dng l cht ch v cng chiu.
o Mi quan h tng quan gia tng sn phm nng lm ng nghip v tng sn
phm dch v l cht ch v cng chiu.
o Mi quan h tng quan gia tng sn phm cng nghip v xy dng v tng
sn phm dch v l cht ch v cng chiu.
5.6. Kim nh s nh hng ca cc bin c lp i vi bin ph thuc.
o i vi 2 , P- Value= 6,13E-05< = 0.05 , nn bin c lp Tng dn s nh
hng n bin ph thuc Tng thu nhp quc dn.
o i vi 3 , P- Value= 9,79E-06< = 0.05 , nn bin c lp Tng sn phm
Nng - Lm - Ng nghip nh hng n bin ph thuc Tng thu nhp quc
dn.
o i vi 4 , P- Value= 1,65E-09< = 0.05 , nn bin c lp Tng sn phm
Cng Nghip v Xy Dng nh hng n bin ph thuc Tng thu nhp quc
dn.
o i vi 5 , P- Value= 0,005483< = 0.05 , nn bin c lp Tng sn phm
Dch v nh hng n bin ph thuc Tng thu nhp quc dn.
o Trong , P- Value= 1,65E-09 ca 4 c gi tr nh nht nn bin c lp
Tng sn phm Cng nghip v Xy dng nh hng nht n bin ph thuc
Tng thu nhp quc dn v P- Value= 0,005483 ca 5 c gi tr ln nht nn
bin c lp Tng sn phm Dch v t nh hng nht n bin ph thuc Tng
thu nhp quc dn.

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GVHD: Th.s Nguyn Quang Cng

5.7. Ma trn hip phng sai.


Kt qu tnh ton bng Exel c bn:

Cov ( ) = 2 .( X T X ) 1 =

1234299701,4
-17367,6503

-17367,65
0,24688

-308,47860
-0,00111

624,47206
-0.00678

23,61864
0,00009

-308,47861

-0,00111

0,03980

0,00390

-0,02534

624,47207
23,61865

-0,00678
0,00009

0,00390
-0,02534

0,00756
-0,01022

-0,01022
0,02476

Kt qu tnh ton bng Eviews:

5.8. Khong tin cy ca cc tham s hi quy.

C cng thc : j t 2 (n k ) Se( j ) j j + t 2 (n k ) Se( j ) (*)

C: n = 20
k=5

= 5%

t (n k ) = t 0 , 025 (20 5) = 2,131


2

Khong tin cy ca 1 .
T (*)

182187 ,991 2,131 * 35123 ,60169 1 182187 ,991 + 2,131 * 35123 ,60169
257036 ,3862 1 107339 ,5958

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GVHD: Th.s Nguyn Quang Cng

ngha: Khi tng dn s, tng sn phm nng lm ng nghip,


tng sn phm cng nghip v xy dng, tng sn phm dch v
bng 0 th tng thu nhp quc dn(GNI) c gi tr trong khong t
-257036,3862 n -107339,5958 t ng vi tin cy 95%.
Khong tin cy ca 2 .
T (*)

2,731620983 2,131 * 0,49687909 2 2,731620983 + 2,131 * 0,49687909


1,672771642 2 3,790470324

ngha: Khi tng sn phm nng lm ng nghip, tng sn phm


cng nghip v xy dng, tng sn phm dch v khng i v
nu tng dn s tng (gim) 1 nghn dn th tng thu nhp quc
dn (GNI) nhn gi tr chnh lch trong khong 1,672771642 n
3,790470324 t ng vi tin cy 95%.
Khong tin cy ca 3 .
T (*)

1,299654903 2131 * 0,199519473 3 1,299654903 + 2,131 * 0,199519473


0,874478906 3 1,7248309

ngha: Khi tng dn s, tng sn phm cng nghip v xy dng,


tng sn phm dch v khng i v nu tng sn phm nng
lm ng nghip tng (gim) 1 t ng th tng thu nhp quc dn
(GNI) nhn gi tr chnh lch trong khong t 0,874478906 n

1,7248309 t ng vi tin cy 95%.


Khong tin cy ca

4 .

T (*)

1,119210509 2,131 * 0,086959487 4 1,119210509 + 2,131 * 0,086959487


0,933899842 4 1,304521176

ngha: Khi tng dn s, tng sn phm nng lm ng nghip,


tng sn phm dch v khng i v nu tng sn phm cng
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GVHD: Th.s Nguyn Quang Cng

nghip v xy dng tng (gim) 1 t ng th tng thu nhp quc


dn (GNI) nhn gi tr chnh lch trong khong t 0,93389942
n 1,304521176 t ng vi tin cy 95%.
Khong tin cy ca 5 .
T (*)

0,510063388 2,131 * 0,157376927 5 0,510063388 + 2,131 * 0,157376927


0,174693156 5 0,845433619

ngha: Khi tng dn s, tng sn phm nng lm ng nghip,


tng sn phm cng nghip v xy dng khng i v nu tng
sn phm dch v tng (gim) 1 t ng th tng thu nhp quc
dn (GNI) nhn gi tr chnh lch trong khong t 0,174693156
n 0,845433619 t ng vi tin cy 95%.
5.9. Kim nh gi thit v cc tham s hi quy.
Hy kim nh cc kin sau:
o Tng dn s khng nh hng n tng thu nhp quc dn (GNI).
o Tng sn phm nng lm ng nghip nh hng n tng thu nhp quc dn
(GNI).
o Khi tng sn phm cng nghip v xy dng tng th tng thu nhp quc dn
(GNI) khng tng.
o Khi tng sn phm dch v tng th tng thu nhp quc dn (GNI) khng gim.
o Khi tng dn s, tng sn phm nng lm ng nghip, tng sn hm cng
nghip v xy dng, tng sn phm dch v bng 0 th tng thu nhp quc dn t
-247167 t ng.
Kim nh cc kin trn vi mc ngha 5%.
Tin hnh kim nh
Tng dn s khng nh hng n tng thu nhp quc dn (GNI).

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GVHD: Th.s Nguyn Quang Cng

H 0 : 2 = 0( * )
KGT:
H1 : 2 #0
Ta c: 2 = 2,731620983
t=

2 = 0

Se ( 2 ) = 0,49687909

2 2* 2,731620983 0
=
= 5,497556726
0,49687909
Se( 2 )

t (n k ) = t 0 , 025 (20 5) = 2,131


2

t > t (n k )
2

Bc b H0

Vy kin trn khng c c s.


Tng sn phm nng lm ng nghip nh hng n tng thu nhp quc dn
(GNI).

H 0 : 3 = 0( * )
KGT:
H 1 : 3 #0
Ta c: 3 = 1,299654903
t=

3* = 0

Se ( 3 ) = 0,199519473

3 3* 1,299654903 0
=
= 6,513925099
0,199519473
Se( 3 )

t (n k ) = t 0 , 025 (20 5) = 2,131


2

t > t (n k )
2

Bc b H0

Vy kin trn khng c c s.


Khi tng sn phm cng nghip v xy dng tng th tng thu nhp quc dn
(GNI) khng tng.
H 0 : 4 0(*)
H1 : 4 > 0

KGT:
Ta c: 4 = 1,119210509

Lp: K15KKT6

Se( 4 ) = 0,086959487

4* = 0

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t=

GVHD: Th.s Nguyn Quang Cng

4 4* 1,119210509 0
=
= 12,87048196
0,086959487
Se( 4 )

t (n k ) = t 0, 05 ( 20 50 =1,753

t > t (n k )

Bc b H0

Vy kin trn khng c c s.


Khi tng sn phm dch v tng th tng thu nhp quc dn (GNI) khng
gim.
H 0 : 5 0(*)
H1 : 5 < 0

KGT:
Ta c: 5 = 0,510063388
t=

Se ( 5 ) = 0,517376927

5* = 0

5 5* 0,510063388 0
=
= 0,985864195
0,517376927
Se( 5 )

t (n k ) = t 0, 05 ( 20 50 =1,753

t > t ( n k )

chp nhn H0

Vy kin trn c c s.
Khi tng dn s, tng sn phm nng lm ng nghip, tng sn hm cng
nghip v xy dng, tng sn phm dch v bng 0 th tng thu nhp quc dn t
-247167 t ng.

7)
H 0 : 1 = 2 4 7 1 6(*
KGT:
H 1 : 1 # 2 4 7 1 6 7
Ta c: 1 = 182187 ,991

1* = 247167

Se ( 1 ) = 35123 ,60196

1 1* 182187,991 (247167)
t=
=
= 1,850009833
35123,60196
Se( 1 )
t (n k ) = t 0 , 025 (20 5) = 2,131
2

t < t (n k )
2

Chp nhn H0

Vy kin trn c c s.

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GVHD: Th.s Nguyn Quang Cng

5.10.Kim nh s ph hp ca m hnh hi quy.


5.10.1.Kim nh s ph hp ca m hnh hi quy theo kim nh F.
kim nh s ph hp ca m hnh hi quy ta i kim nh bi
ton sau:

H0 : 2 = 3 = 4 = 5 = 0
KGT:
H 1 : 2 = 3 = 4 = 5 #0
Tiu chun kim nh F:
F=

n k ESS
n k
R2
20 5
0,999877128
*
=
*
=
*
= 30515 ,81508
2
k 1 RSS
k 1 1 R
5 1 1 0,999877128

Ta c:

F ( k 1, n k ) = F0, 05 ( 4,15 ) = 3,06

V F > F (k 1, n k ) Bc b H0, chp nhn H1 v m hnh hi quy ph hp.


5.10.2.Kim nh s ph hp ca m hnh hi quy theo Sig F.
Ta c Sig F = 3,98E-29 < = 0,05 nn m hnh hi quy ph hp.
5.11.Bng ANOVA.
Bng mu:
df
k-1
n-k
n-1

SS
ESS
RSS
TSS

MS
ESS/(k-1)
RSS/(n-k)

F
F

Sig(F)
Sig(F)

T cc s liu tnh trn ta c bng ANOVA cn tm sau:


df
4
15
19

SS
3712898089030,61
456267095,94
3713354356126,55

MS
F
9,28E+11 30515,81508
30417806

Sig(F)
3,98E-29

5.12. D bo.
Gi s khi tng dn s l 75000 nghn dn, tng sn phm Nng - Lm - Ng
nghip l 155890,5 t ng, tng sn phm Cng nghip v Xy dng l 355679
t ng, tng sn phm Dch v l 256790 t ng tm khong d bo gi tr trung

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GVHD: Th.s Nguyn Quang Cng

bnh v gi tr c bit ca tng thu nhp quc dn (GNI) ng vi cc gi tr trn


vi tin cy 95%.
D bo gi tr trung bnh.
X0={1; 75000; 155890,5; 355679; 256790}
Y0 = 1 + 2 X 2+ 3 X 3 + 4 X 4 + 5 X 5 = 754346 ,2873
Y0 = 754346 ,2873
Var (Y0 ) = 2 X 0 ( X T X ) 1 X 0T = 88471969 ,104949
Se (Y0 ) = Var (Y0 ) = 9405 ,953918

Ta c:

Y0 t (n k ) Se (Y0 ) E (
2

Y
= X 0 ) Y0 + t (n k ) Se (Y0 )
X
2

754346 ,2873 2,131 * 9405 ,953918 E (


734302 ,1995 E (

Y
= X 0 ) 754346 ,2873 + 2,131 * 9405 ,953918
X

Y
= X 0 ) 774390 ,3751
X

Kt lun: Khong d bo gi tr trung bnh ca tng thu nhp quc dn (GNI) ng


vi tng Dn s l 75000 nghn dn, tng sn phm Nng - Lm - Ng nghip l
155890,5 t ng, tng sn phm Cng nghip v Xy dng l 355679 t ng,
tng sn phm Dch v l 256790 t ng nhn gi tr trong khong t
734302,1995 n 774390,3751 t ng vi tin cy 95%.
D bo gi tr trung bnh bng Eviews:

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GVHD: Th.s Nguyn Quang Cng

D bo gi tr c bit.
Var (Y0 ) =118889775 ,500652
Se (Y0 ) = Var (Y0 ) =10903 ,65881

Ta c:
Y0 t (n k ) Se (Y0 )
2

Y0
= X 0 Y0 + t (n k ) Se (Y0 )
X
2

754346 ,2873 2,131 * 10903 ,65881


731110 ,5904

Y0
= X 0 754346 ,2873 + 2,131 * 10903 ,65881
X

Y0
= X 0 777581 ,9842
X

Kt lun: Khong d bo gi tr c bit ca tng thu nhp quc dn (GNI) ng vi


tng dn s l 75000 nghn dn, tng sn phm Nng - Lm - Ng nghip l
155890,5 t ng, tng sn phm Cng nghip v Xy dng l 355679 t ng,

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GVHD: Th.s Nguyn Quang Cng

tng sn phm Dch v l 256790 t ng nhn gi tr trong khong t


731110,5904 n 777581,9842 t ng vi tin cy 95%.
5.13. a cng tuyn.
5.13.1.Pht hin s tn ti ca a cng tuyn.
Xem xt qua ma trn tng quan ca cc bin, ta thy 2 bin X3 v X5 c mc
tng quan kh cao : R35 =0.997530222 nn c th xy ra hin tng a cng
tuyn.
kim nh a cng tuyn, chng ti xy dng m hnh hi quy ph trong
ln lt cc bin c lp s tr thnh bin ph thuc v hi quy vi cc bin cn
li.
Kt qu hi quy ph theo bin X5 bng Eviews:

H0 : R2 = 0
Gi thit
2
H1 : R 0
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Ta c :

GVHD: Th.s Nguyn Quang Cng

F0 , 05 ( 4,16 ) = 3,01

Ta thy Fp= 2518,096>

F0 , 05 ( 4,16 ) = 3,01

nn c hin tng a cng tuyn

xy ra.
5.13.2.Bin php khc phc.

Kt qu hi quy li m hnh trong loi b bin X3 bng Eviews.

2
Ta c : RBo
3 = 0,999530

Kt qu hi quy li m hnh trong loi b bin X5 bng Eviews.

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GVHD: Th.s Nguyn Quang Cng

2
Ta c : RBo
5 = 0,999791
2
2
Xt thy RBo
nn loi b bin X5 khi m hnh, khi
5 = 0,999791 > RBo 3 = 0,999530

m hnh tr nn tt hn:
Y= -182674,4+2,729656X2+1,821528X3+1,329700X4
5.14. Phng sai ca sai s thay i.
5.14.1.Pht hin ra phng sai ca sai s thay i.
Kim nh m hnh gc ban u:
Thc hin Kim nh White c cc tch cho gia cc bin c lp bng EViews,
ta c kt qa nh sau:

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GVHD: Th.s Nguyn Quang Cng

T kt qu trn, ta c: Probality (F-Statistic)= 0,04489 < = 0,05 , nn M hnh


tn ti phng sai ca sai s.
Ngoi ra, ta cng c th thc hin Kim nh White khng c cc tch cho gia
cc bin c lp bng EViews, ta c kt qu nh sau:

Lp: K15KKT6

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GVHD: Th.s Nguyn Quang Cng

Nhng m hnh hi quy c cc tch cho gia cc bin c lp tn ti


phng sai ca sai s nn ta khng s dng m hnh ny na.
Kim nh m hnh sau khi loi b bin:
Thc hin Kim nh White c cc tch cho gia cc bin c lp bng EViews,
ta c kt qa nh sau:

Lp: K15KKT6

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GVHD: Th.s Nguyn Quang Cng

T kt qu trn, ta c: Probality (F-Statistic)= 0,797533 > = 0,05 , nn M hnh


khng tn ti phng sai ca sai s.
Ngoi ra, ta cng c th thc hin Kim nh White khng c cc tch cho gia
cc bin c lp bng EViews, ta c kt qu nh sau:

Lp: K15KKT6

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GVHD: Th.s Nguyn Quang Cng

T kt qu trn, ta c: Probality (F-Statistic)= 0,710193 > = 0,05 , nn M hnh


khng tn ti phng sai ca sai s.
Vy m hnh sau khi loi b bin X5 khng khng tn ti phng sai ca sai s.
5.14.2.Bin php khc phc(dng kim nh White).
Bin php khc phc m hnh gc ban u:
Xt m hnh hi quy: Y = - 182187,991+ 2,731620983X2 + 1,299654903X3 +
1,119210509X4 + 0,510063388X5 + Ui.
Da vo kt qu kim nh White c cc tch cho gia cc bin c lp bng
EViews, ta c kt qa nh sau, Ta c Prob(X5)= 0,1179 l gi tr nh nht nn ta
chia c hai v ca phng trnh hi quy trn cho

Lp: K15KKT6

X5

, c:

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Kinh T Lng
Y
X5

GVHD: Th.s Nguyn Quang Cng

- 182187,991
X5

2,73162098 3X2
X5

1,29965490 3X3
X5

1,11921050 9X4
X5

+ 0,510063388

Ui

+ X 5 (1.1)
t:

Vi =

Y* =

Ui
X5

*
*
*
*
3
2
4
; X2 = X ; X3 =
, X4 =
, X5 =
,
X5
X5
X5
X5
5

X 6* =

X5

Khi (1.1) c vit li:


Y* = -182187,991 X 2* +2,731620983 X 3* +1,299654903 X 4* +1,119210509 X 5* +
0,510063388 X 6* +Vi (1.2)
M hnh (1.2) khng tn ti phng sai sai s ngu nhin thay i.
V Var(Vi)=Var(

Ui

2
2
)= X Var (U i ) = X X 5 = = const i
X5
5
5

Hi quy li m hnh (1.1) bng EViews, Ta c:

Lp: K15KKT6

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X5

Kinh T Lng

Y
X5

160102 ,6
X5

GVHD: Th.s Nguyn Quang Cng

2,433458 X 2
X5

0,893474 X 3
X5

1,007959 X 4
X5

+ 0,861174

X5

M hnh trn c hi quy li v khng tn ti phng sai sai s ngu nhin.


5.15. T tng quan.
5.15.1.Pht hin khi c s tng quan(dng kim nh ca DurbinWatson).
M hnh hi quy gc.
Ta c: n=20, k=5, k=4

dl=0,894

du=1,812

Kt qu t Eviews ta c : d=1,217115
Kim nh gi thit: H0 khng c t tng quan dng v
dl=0,894 < d=1,217115<du=1,812 nn bc b H0 tc m hnh c t tng quan
dng
M hnh sau khi b bin X5.

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GVHD: Th.s Nguyn Quang Cng

Ta c n=20, k=4, k=3

dl=0,998

du=1,676

Theo kt qu t Eviews ta c : d=0,630549


Kim nh gi thit H0 khng c t tng quan dng, V:
0 < d = 0,630549 < dl = 0,998 nn bc b H0 tc m hnh c t tng quan dng
5.15.2.Bin php khc phc.

M hnh hi quy gc.

Xt m hnh hi quy: Yi== - 182187,991+ 2,731620983X2 + 1,299654903X3 +


1,119210509X4 + 0,510063388X5+Ui (1.3)
Gi s Ui= Ui-1+ I vi I l yu t ngu nhin tha mi gi thit ca phng
php bnh phng b nht OLS.
T (1.3) ta thay i bi (i-1) ta c Yi-1= - 182187,991+ 2,731620983X2-1 +
1,299654903X3-1 + 1,119210509X4-1 + 0,510063388X5-1+Ui -1
Nhn hai v ca (1.4) cho , ta c:

(1.4)

Yi-1=-182187,991 + 2,731620983X2-1+ 1,299654903X3-1+


1,119210509X4-1 + 0,510063388X5-1+ Ui -1

(1.5)

Ly (1.3)-(1.5), ta c:
Yi=-182187,991(1- )+2,731620983X2 - 2,731620983X2-1+1,299654903X3 -
1,299654903X3-1+1,119210509X4 - 1,119210509X4-1 +
0,510063388X5-1+ Yi-1+ I
(1.6)

0,510063388X5-

Khi , m hnh (1.5) khng tn ti t tng quan v I tha mi gi thit OLS.


Kt qu hi quy li m hnh theo bng Eviews:

Lp: K15KKT6

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GVHD: Th.s Nguyn Quang Cng

Ta c m hnh sau:
Y=-111390,1-25,46581X2-27,68937X2-1+0,777637X3+0,468798X31

+1,406854X4+0,719138X4-1+0,947090X5-0,055857x5-1+0,168807Y-1

M hnh sau khi b bin X5.

Xt m hnh Y= -182674,4+2,729656X2+1,821528X3+1,329700X4+Ui (1.7)


Gi s Ui= Ui-1+ I vi I l yu t ngu nhin tha mi gi thit ca phng
php bnh phng b nht OLS.
T (1.7) ta thay i bi (i-1) ta c:
Yi-1= -182674,4+2,729656X2-1+1,821528X3-1+1,329700X4-1+Ui-1 (1.8)
Nhn hai v ca (1.8) cho , ta c:

Yi-1=

-182674,4 + 2,729656X2-1+ 1,821528X3-1+ 1,329700X4-1+ Ui-1

(1.9)
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GVHD: Th.s Nguyn Quang Cng

Ly (1.7)-(1.9), ta c:
Yi= -182674,4 (1- )+2,729656X2- 2,729656X2-1+1,821528X3- 1,821528X31

+
1,329700X4- 1,329700X4-1+ Yi-1+

(2.1)

Khi , m hnh (2.1) khng tn ti t tng quan v I tha mi gi thit OLS.


Kt qu hi quy li m hnh theo bng Eviews:

Ta c m hnh sau:
Y= -47206,65 + 13,44543X 2 - 12,85444X2-1 + 1,423623X31,371821X3-1 + 1,720486X4 - 1,472518X4-1 + 0,858556Y-1
5.16. Kim nh chn m hnh: (Kim nh Wald).
Ta i kim nh bi ton sau:
KGT:
KGT:
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Ho: 5 =0

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GVHD: Th.s Nguyn Quang Cng


Ho: 5 0

Thc hin Kim nh Wald bng EViews, ta c kt qa nh sau:

Ta thy F=26,89174 > F0.05(3,16) = 3,63 nn bin X5 khng cn thit trong m


hnh. iu ny c chng t khi ta loi bin X5 ra khi m hnh v c m
hnh khc tt hn.
5.17. Kt lun, nu ngha thc t ca nghin cu v hn ch ca nghin
cu.
5.17.1.Kt lun m hnh.
M hnh hi quy sau khi koi b bin X5:
Y= -182674,4+2,729656X2+1,821528X3+1,329700X4
T m hnh trn ta c th kt lun tng thu nhp quc dn (GNI) ca mt quc
gia chu s tc ng, nh hng ca cc yu t : Tng dn s, Tng sn phm
nng lm ng nghip, Tng sn phm cng nghip - xy dng. Nhng mc tc
ng nh hng ca mi yu t l khc nhau. Trong c nh hng ln nht l
Tng sn phm cng nghip - xy dng v c P_value nh nht, v t nh hng
nht l Tng dn s v c P_value ln nht.
o

Gi tr 1 : Khi tng dn s, tng sn phm nng lm ng nghip, tng sn

phm dch v bng 0 th tng thu nhp quc dn t gi tr thp nht l -182674,4
t ng/nm

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GVHD: Th.s Nguyn Quang Cng

Gi tr 2 : Khi tng sn phm nng lm ng nghip, tng sn phm dch v

khng i v nu tng dn s tng(gim) 1 nghn dn/nm th tng thu nhp quc


dn tng(gim) 2,729656 t dng/nm
o

Gi tr 3 : Khi tng dn s, tng sn phm dch v khng i v nu tng

sn phm nng lm ng nghip tng(gim) 1 t ng/nm th tng thu nhp quc


dn tng(gim) 1,821528 t ng/nm
o

Gi tr 4 : Khi tng dn s, tng sn phm nng lm ng nghip khng i

v nu tng sn phm dch v tng(gim) 1 t ng/nm th tng thu nhp quc


dn tng(gim) 1,329700 t ng/nm.
M hnh trn c h s R2 =0,999791 l ln th tng bnh phng sai s d bo nh
hay ni cch khc ph hp ca m hnh vi d liu cng ln. Hay trong hm
hi quy mu cc bin c lp gii thch c 99,9791% bin ph thuc Y (GNI
ca mi quc gia).
Qua m hnh cho ta thy tt c cc yu t v dn s, sn phm nng lm ng
nghip, cng nghip, xy dng v dch v u c tc ng n tng thu nhp hng
nm ca nc ta. Yu t dn s cho thy khi dn s tng th tng thu nhp quc
dn s tng iu y l ng, t nm 1990 n nm 2009 trong m hnh h s ca
yu t dn s l 2,7316 cao nht iu cho thy rng trong 19 nm qua yu t
dn s tc ng vo tng thu nhp rt cao. Vy c th cho rng mun tng tng
thu nhp th tng dn s. iu l cha chc ng vi ngoi thc t, khi dn s
tng qu nhanh ko theo ngho i, lc hu trong khi cc yu t v sn xut li
tng chm dn n nn kinh t km pht trin. Trong m hnh h s ca nng lm
ng nghip l 1,2996, cng nghip v xy dng l 1,192, dch v l 0,51. Nh vy
sn phm nng lm ng nghip vn chim t trng ln, cho thy nc ta vn cn
l nc nng nghip. Cng nghip, xy dng v dch v cha cao. Trong nhng
nm tip theo cn lm thay i m hnh sao cho h s ca yu t dn s gim i
tng h s ca cng nghip v xy dng, dch v, v nng lm ng nghip.
Theo phng hng ca ng cng sn Vit nam n nm 2020 Vit nam c
bn s l nc cng nghip, hin nay nn kinh t Vit Nam ang thay i nhanh
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GVHD: Th.s Nguyn Quang Cng

chng, nh nc ch trng vo cng nghip, c s h tng, giao thng vn ti v


dch v, p dng khoa hc tin b k thut.
5.17.2.Hn ch ca m hnh.
M hnh gii thch kh hp l v cc yu t tc ng n tng thu nhp
Vit nam. Cn c vo m hnh chng ta c th thy mi tng quan gia cc yu
t kinh t n tng thu nhp. T m hnh cho ta thy cn phi lm th no pht
trin nn kinh t t nc, a ra nhng chnh sch hp l. Tuy nhin m hnh vn
cn nhiu hn ch v thc s cha hon ho do cch tip cn ngun ti liu v sai
s.
o

Hn ch ln nht ca m hnh l cha th hin c tt c cc bin c tc

ng, nh hng n tng thu nhp quc dn GNI nh : xut khu,nhp khu,
lm pht,........
o

M hnh quan st cn hn ch ( ch qua 19nm) nn kt lun ca m hnh

cha phn nh chnh xc thc t.


5.18. Li cm n.
Nhm chng em xin gi li cm n chn thnh nht ti thy Nguyn Quang
Cng, ngi tn tnh hng dn cho chng em hon thnh ti ny. Bi bo
co ny chc chn s c nhiu thiu st nhng nhm chng em hy vng qua s c
gng tm hiu ca nhm s em n mt ci nhn tng quan v r rt nht v cc
yu t nh hng ti Tng thu nhp quc dn ca Vit Nam.

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