KHI PHN TCH & U T

Nguyn Tin t

Bo co
PHN TCH NGNH C PH

Ngy 10/06/2011

TM TT BO CO
21%

Hin nay, trn th gii c khong hn 25 triu ngi trng c ph, a s h sng nhng nc ang pht trin, trng c ph quy m nh. Th trng c ph th gii tng ln gp i trong giai on 2000 2010. Trong khi nhu cu tiu th c ph th gii tng khong 2%/nm cng trong giai on 2000 2010. C ph hin l loi cy trng chim v tr quan trng trong nn nng nghip hng ha ca th gii ni chung v Vit Nam ni ring. Trn th gii, c ph l sn phm ng th 5 trn th gii v gi tr tiu th, trong khi Vit Nam c ph l mt trong 3 mt hng nng sn xut khu chin lc quc gia (chim xp x 15% tng gi tr xut khu nng sn Vit Nam). Tnh n ht nm 2010, din tch c ph ca Vit Nam t xp x 540 ngn ha, ng th 4 th gii, sn lng ng th 2 th gii ch sau Brazil v c bit l nng sut ng u th gii. Ngnh c ph cng l ngnh thu ht c mt lng ln lao ng, c bit vo 3 thng thu hoch, s lng lao ng trong thi k ny c th t ti hn 700,000 lao ng. Trong nm 2010, xut khu c ph ca Vit Nam t hn 1.2 triu tn vi gi tr c t 1.85 t USD. Hin nay, c ph Vit Nam c mt ti 75 quc gia trn th gii, th phn t 12% sn lng th gii (s liu nm 2010, ngun ICO). Nhng th trng nhp khu c ph ch yu ca Vit Nam l c, M, Ty Ban Nha, , B, Ba Lan, Hn Quc, Php, Anh v Nht Bn, 10 quc gia trn chim t trng trn 70% tng gi tr xut khu mt hng c ph. C ph Vit Nam cng l ngun nguyn liu ch yu ca nhiu hng sn xut c ph ln trn th gii, ng ch c tp on Nestle, Nestle l mt trong nhng khch hng ln nht ca c ph Vit Nam, mi nm hng ny tiu th khong 20% - 25% trong tng lng c ph xut khu ca Vit Nam Vi th mnh v sn xut c ph Robusta, v tc tng trng mnh hai con s ca dng sn phm c ph ha tan, ngnh c ph c k vng s ng gp 3 t USD xut khu ca Vit Nam trong nm 2011. http://www.smes.vn
cent/lb

36% 3% 3% 4% 6% 6% 7% 14%

Brazil n

Vit Nam Mexico

Colombia Guatemala

Indonesia Khc

Ethiopia

T trng sn lng c ph theo quc gia trn th gii trong nm 2010, Ngun: ICO
350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Colombian Mild Arabicas Brazilian Natural Arabicas Other Mild Arabicas Robustas

Din bin gi c ph th gii giai on 2009 4/2011, Ngun: ICO

2,500 Sn lng (1000 tn) 1,911 2,021 Gi tr XK (Triu USD)

2,000

1,851
1,731

1,500 1,217
1,000 981 804 634

1,229

1,184

1,218

1,004

500

0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Sn lng & kim ngch XK c ph Vit Nam giai on 2005 -2010, Ngun: B Cng Thng
Trang 1

TNG QUAN NGNH C PH TH GII

Mi ngy c khong 2.5 t ly c ph c tiu th trn ton th gii v c ph cng l sn phm ng th 5 trn th gii v gi tr tiu th. Th trng c ph th gii c c im l gi c n nh v mc sn xut c tc ng trc tip vo thu nhp ca ngi sn xut v gi c phi i mt vi ngi tiu dng. Hin nay, trn th gii c khong hn 25 triu ngi trng c ph, a s h sng nhng nc ang pht trin, trng c ph quy m nh. Th trng c ph th gii tng ln gp i trong 10 nm tr li y. C ph l tn mt chi thc vt thuc h Thin tho (Rubiaceae). H ny bao gm khong 500 chi khc nhau vi trn 6.000 loi cy nhit i. Chi c ph bao gm nhiu loi cy lu nm khc nhau. Tuy nhin, khng phi loi no cng cha caffein trong ht, mt s loi khc xa vi nhng cy c ph ta thng thy. Ch c hai loi c ph c ngha kinh t. Loi th nht c tn thng thng trong ting Vit l c ph ch (tn khoa hc: Coffea arabica), i din cho khong 61% cc sn phm c ph trn th gii. Loi th hai l c ph vi (tn khoa hc: Coffea canephora hay Coffea robusta), chim gn 39% cc sn phm c ph. Ngoi ra cn c Coffea liberica v Coffea excelsa ( Vit Nam gi l c ph mt) vi sn lng khng ng k. Mild Arabica gm c hai nhm l

Colombian Mild - C ph Arabica Colombia v Other Mild - cc loi c ph Arabica khc.

10.59%

Trong , Colombia Mild bao gm c ph sn xut Colombia, Kenya, v Tanzania. Nhng

32.56%

22.85%

nc c sn phm c ph xp trong nhm cc loi Mild khc bao gm Guatemala, Mexico v n . C ph Brazilian Natural l loi c

34.00%

ph Arabica hm lng caffeine cao sn xut Brazil v Ethiopia. Nhm c ph Robusta t tt c cc

Colombian Milds

Other Milds

Brazilian Naturals

Robustas

ngun khc nhau. Trong nhm ny, Vit Nam hin ang l nc sn xut v xut khu ln nht, tip l B Bin Ng, Indonesia v Uganda

Biu 01: T trng sn lng c ph theo chng loi trn th gii trong nm 2010, Ngun: Hip hi c ph th gii (ICO)

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Ngun Cung
C ph c trng v ch bin nhiu quc gia trn th gii, ch yu l nhng nc gn xch o c kh hu nhit i nh: Vit Nam, Indonesia, n , Colombia, Brazil, Ethiopia Hin nay, Brazil l nc sn xut c ph ln nht th gii vi t trng 36% tng sn lng th gii, tip l Vit Nam vi 14%, Colombia ng v tr th ba vi t trng 7%, Indonesia v Ethiopia l hai quc gia c cng t trng 6% tng sn lng c ph th gii. Ht c ph Arabica c trng chu M La Tinh, ng Phi, bn o Rp hay chu . Ht c ph Robusta c trng nhiu Ty v Trung Phi, phn ln ng Nam v mt mc no l Brazil.

21% 36% 3% 3% 4% 6% 6% 7% 14%

Brazil n

Vit Nam Mexico

Colombia Guatemala

Indonesia Khc

Ethiopia

Biu 02: T trng sn lng c ph theo quc gia trn th gii trong nm 2010, Ngun: ICO
Arabica c cc nh sn xut c ph rang xay cht lng cao a chung ti cc th trng truyn thng v pht trin nh Bc M v chu u, do vy, d bo nhu cu tiu th Arabica s vn tng i n nh vi tc tng trng t 0.7%/nm trong khi tc tng trng tiu th sn phm c ph Robusta li c d bo s tip tc gi mc tng trng cao trn 5%.

Ngun Cu
M, Brazil v c l ba quc gia tiu th c ph hng u th gii. C ba nc ny tiu th tng cng khong 37% sn lng c ph ca th gii. Tnh ring trong nm 2010 l tng sn lng tiu th c ph trn th gii l 132 triu bao loi 60kg, trong 21 triu bao c tiu th ti M, 19 triu bao ti Brazil v 9 triu bao ti c. Bnh qun trong giai on http://www.smes.vn Trang 3

12.0
10.0 8.0 6.0

2000 2010, nhu cu tiu th c ph th gii tng khong 2%/nm. Trong hai nm gn y, mc d b nh hng nh bi cuc khng hong ti chnh ton cu khi ch tng 0.9% trong nm 2009, nhu cu tiu th c ph tng tr li 1.5% trong nm 2010. ng ch l c s khc bit r rt v tc tng trng v nhu cu tiu th gia nhng th trng pht trin v ang pht trin. Bn cnh xu
Na Uy Phn an Thy H Lan Thy Lan Mch in S c o B Php

4.0
2.0 0.0

hng tng trng chm v n nh ca cc th trng truyn thng th cc th trng mi ni nh Brazil, Trung Quc, Vit Nam, Indonesia v Philippines li c c tc tng trng nhanh ng ch .

Biu 03: Lng tiu th c ph trn u ngi (kg/ngi) ca top 10 quc gia, Ngun: Vin ti nguyn th gii.

Khu vc Bc u l khu vc c lng tiu th c ph bnh qun trn u ngi ln nht th gii khi m 4 nc dn u v sn lng tiu th trn u ngi u thuc khu vc Bc u. Chu u tip tc l khu vc c t l tiu th bnh qun u ngi ln nht, trong khi cc quc gia vn c th mnh sn xut c ph ln l Vit Nam hay Indonesia ch c mc tiu th khim tn vi mc xp x 1kg/ngi/nm.

Vi tc pht trin mnh m, c ph khng cn n thun ch l mt sn phm nng nghip thun ty, c ph v ang ng mt vai tr quan trng trong nn kinh t th gii. Trn th gii cng nhn v s dng rng ri thut ng coffee industry - ngnh c ph; vi tng gi tr giao dch ton cu l khong 100 t USD. Ch ng th hai sau du ha trong danh sch cc loi hng ha c bn c gi tr giao dch ton cu cao nht. Khng ch c ng gp v gi tr nng sn ch bin m c ph cn l yu t c tc ng ln n cc lnh vc: ti chnh, thng mi, u t, du lch, vn ha... Bn cnh cc sn phm mang tnh u c truyn thng nh vng bc, qu, du m, c ph hin nay cng l mt trong nhng mt hng c u c nhiu nht trn th gii.

Nhng yu t nh hng, chi phi ngnh c ph th gii:

C ph th gii c giao dch trn th trng hng ha th gii, c th l hai sn giao dch nng sn ti New York v London do gi c ph th gii mt phn b tc ng v chi phi bi din bin giao dch trn cc s giao dch hng ha nng sn. y cng l nguyn nhn khin cho ngnh c ph th gii c nhy cao trong mi quan h vi tnh hnh kinh t th gii. Cc nc trng c ph ang cn mt c ch ng ra m bo s hi ha v li ch ca cc i tng c lin quan trong chui gi tr c ph, c bit l cho ngi nng dn trng

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c ph. Mt OPEC ca c ph ang c mong ch khng nh c vai tr v v th ca th nng lng cho nn kinh t tng lai. Sn lng c ph tiu th ca th gii b ph thuc mnh bi nhm Big Four gm Nestl, Kraft, Sara Lee v Maxwell House, v nhng hng c ph c bit nh Starbucks, Tullys... Gi tr thng d t ngnh c ph ch yu chy v ti cc nc s hu nhng thng hiu c ph hng u, trong khi gi tr thng d m ngi ch cy c ph nhn li ch chim mt t trng tng i nh. C ph l nng sn phm nn chu tc ng ln t din bin thi tit. Hai ging cy c ph chnh l Arabica v Robusta yu cu nhng iu kin thi tit ring bit. Trong khi C ph Arabica l mt chng c ph vng kh hu cao, lnh, c ma nhiu, c trng tt nht cao trn 1000 mt so vi mt nc bin th Robusta li thch hp vi kh hu nhit i nng m. V thu hoch c ph ph thuc rt nhiu vo iu kin kh hu v c tnh t nhin ca cy c ph thng thng sau mt v c ma th sn lng thu hoch c ph ca nm tip theo s gim st. Trong khi cc th trng tiu th c ph truyn thng nh Bc u, M, Nht Bn gi mc tng trng thp v n nh, th cc th trng mi ni nh Brazil, Trung Quc, Vit Nam, Indonesia v Philippines... ang c c s gia tng v nhu cu tiu th ni a ng ch vi tc gia tng n tng. Ch trong giai on 5 nm t 2006 n 2010, Indonesia t c tc t tng trng v tiu th ti 8.3%, Philippines l 6.7%, Trung Quc l 6.9%, Vit Nam l 6.3% v Brazil l 3.5%. Xu hng tng trng mnh trong tiu dng c ph ca cc nc ang pht trin s mang tnh quyt nh ti din bin ngnh c ph th gii trong nhng nm ti y.

Din bin gi c ph trn th gii

350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0

Colombian Mild Arabicas Brazilian Natural Arabicas

Other Mild Arabicas Robustas

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cent/lb

Biu 04: Din bin gi c ph th gii giai on 2009 4/2011, Ngun: ICO

Sn lng c ph ph thuc nhiu vo din bin thi tit, mt ma v ma nhiu ti Columbia trong giai on 2009 n nay l nguyn nhn y gi sn phm c ph Arabica tng mnh. Sn lng c ph ca Columbia gim mnh t khi nhng trn ma ln lin tc trong nm 2008 gy tn tht nng n cho v thu hoch c ph t nc ny. Tc th ha nhanh ca Colombia cng gp phn lm gim sn lng c ph khi m ngi nng dn chuyn dn ln thnh th v lm vic trong cc nh my thay v tip tc trng cy c ph. Trong khi gi c ph Arabica tng mnh hn 100% trong giai on 2 nm 2009 2011, th gi c ph Robusta tng i n nh khi ch dao ng xung quanh mc gi 80 Cent/lb. Sn phm c ph ha tan c nguyn liu u vo ch yu l Robusta ang c tc tng trng mnh m, trong khi gi c ph Arabica ngy cng t l hai nguyn nhn chnh gip cho sn lng c ph Robusta tng trng n nh.

D bo Ngnh c ph th gii nin v 2010/2011

T chc C ph quc t (ICO) d bo sn lng c ph ton cu nin v 2010/11 s t mc 133 triu bao, tng 8.1% so vi nin v trc. Trong tng s 10 quc gia xut khu c ph chnh chim 86% trong tng sn lng c ph ton cu nin v 2010/11, c 8 quc gia c sn lng c ph tng so vi nin v trc: Brazil (tng 21.9% t 48.1 triu bao), Vit Nam (tng 1.6% t 18.5 triu bao), Ethiopia (tng 7.5% t 7.45 triu bao), Mexico (tng 4.8 % t 4.4 triu bao), Guatemala (tng 4.3% t 4 triu bao), Honduras (tng 7.1% t 3,83 triu bao) v Uganda (tng 10.8% t 3.1 triu bao). Nin v c ph 2011/12 bt u ti mt s nc xut khu chnh bao gm Brazil, Ecuador, Papua New Guinea. Ti Brazil, mc d nin v 2011/12 l nin v thuc chu k cho sn lng c ph Arabica thp, nhng tng sn lng vn c k vng s t mc 43 triu bao. Nhng tin b trong nng nghip c th l yu t lm gim s khc bit v sn lng gia cc chu k ca cy c ph Arabica ti Brazil. Xut khu c ph ton cu tng trong giai on ny c ng gp ch yu bi mc tng xut khu c ph Arabica vi 35.7 triu bao, tng 19.6% so vi cng k nin v trc. Xut khu c ph Robusta trong giai on ny t mc tng 7.6% so vi cng k nin v trc, t 17.2 triu bao. Trong s cc nc xut khu c ph chnh, tng lng xut khu trong nin v 2010/11 tng ln ng k Ethiopia (+104%), n (+65.5%), Colombia (+36.8%), Honduras (+31.9%), Peru (+27.9%), Brazil (+18.9%) v Vit Nam (+11.6%). Trong khi , xut khu gim Indonesia (-25.8%), Mexico (-18.7%), Uganda (-8.7%) v Guatemala (-3.6%). Hot ng xut khu mnh do mc gi cao hin ti lm hn ch vic b sung tr li lng d tr c ph cc quc gia xut khu. Thng tin c cung cp bi cc thnh vin ca ICO cho thy khi lng d tr c ph u nin v 2010/11 t khong 13 triu bao, gim 36,7% so vi mc d tr u k ca nin v 2009/10.

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TNG QUAN NGNH C PH VIT NAM

Cy c ph c ngi Php a vo Vit Nam t nhng nm 1850. Tuy nhin, hot ng sn xut c thc hin manh mn v thiu t chc cho n nm 1975 khi bt u c nhng t di dn t khu vc ng bng v duyn hi ven bin n vng cao nguyn, ni c iu kin thch hp trng c ph. Hot ng sn xut c c m rng tuy nhin vn rt nh l. n nm 1986, khi cng cuc i mi c tin hnh, cy c ph mi c a vo quy hoch v t chc sn xut quy m ln, tp trung. n nm 1988, Vit Nam tr thnh nc xut khu c ph ln th t ton th gii (chim 6.5% sn lng th gii), ng sau Brazil, Colombia v xp x bng Indonesia. Cho n nm 1999, hot ng xut khu c ph vn gii hn cho doanh nghip nh nc. Tuy nhin, sau thi im ny, cc doanh nghip khi t nhn c cho php tham gia vo th trng c ph xut khu. Gn 92% sn lng c ph ca Vit Nam c xut ra th trng nc ngoi, ch c 8% tng sn lng c ph sn xut ra c tiu th ni a, y l con s rt khim tn so vi th trng tiu th vn ng dn ca Vit Nam. Khong 85-90% din tch c ph hin do cc h nng dn nh l khai thc, khong 10-15% cn li do cc nng trng nh nc khai thc. Ngi nng dn thng thu hoch ng thi x l tch ht c ph ti ch. Sau cng on ny, mt phn nh c ph c bn tiu th trong nc, cn li phn ln c bn cho cc li bun. Li bun mua hng ca nng dn v bn li cho cc n v ch bin v xut khu (ch yu l doanh nghip nh nc). Ngi nng dn bn c ph cho li bun nhng thng b p gi thp v trc tip chu tc ng bin ng gi xut khu. Vit Nam l thnh vin mi nht trong danh sch xp hng nhng quc gia sn xut c ph ln nht th gii. Tham gia vo th trng ny t nhng nm 1990, Vit Nam hin xp th hai ton th gii sau Brazil v tng sn lng c ph v l quc gia xut khu c ph Robusta ln nht th gii. Trong giai on t 1995 n 2001, Vit Nam tng gp ba din tch trng c ph, ci tin cng ngh v ging cy c ph ci thin hiu sut thu hoch ht c ph trn mi hec-ta canh tc. Trong khi ngi nng dn Colombia cn mt triu hec-ta t canh tc to ra khong 1/3 tng lng cung c ph, th ngi nng dn Vit Nam ch cn 2/3 triu hec-ta sn xut ra hn mi triu bao c ph mi nm. Tuy nhin, trong giai on 5 nm , do h thng ti tiu cn hn ch khng p ng c thay i quy m ln v t xut, a phn din tch canh tc khng c lng nc cn thit. V ngun cung, hin ngnh xut khu c ph c trn 140 doanh nghip xut khu, vi 4 doanh nghip hng u l TCT C ph Vit Nam, C ph 2/9, XNK Intimex, v Tp on Thi Ha. Cc doanh nghip nh l t chc mua v xut khu c ph, ng thi bn li cho khong 20 doanh nghip nc ngoi c nh my hoc c quan i din ti Vit Nam. Chin lc ngnh c ph Vit Nam hin nay l khuyn khch cc nh u t nc ngoi (cng nh trong nc) u t vo lnh vc c ph rang xay, ch bin c ph ha tan nh Nestl, Olam, Vinacafe Bin Ha, C ph Trung Nguyn.

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Khuyn khch chuyn giao k thut trng c ph GAP, UTZ, Rain Forest, c ph cn bng thn thin vi mi trng tng chui gi tr c ph ln cao. Th trng c ph Robusta gi r v cht lng thp ln mnh khin v th ca Vit Nam trn th trng c ph th gii tng nhanh, tuy nhin, ci gi phi tr y l mt i rng v nhng bin i khc v mi trng. Vi mc tng trng tng i n nh v sn lng cng nh gi tr xut khu trong nhng nm tr li y, ngnh c ph Vit Nam tip tc cng c v tr th hai trn th gii v trng v sn xut c ph.
2,500

Sn lng (1000 tn) 1,911 2,021

Gi tr XK (Triu USD)

2,000

1,851
1,731

1,500 1,217
1,000 981 804 634

1,229

1,184

1,218

1,004

500

0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Biu 05: Sn lng v Gi tr xut khu c ph ca Vit Nam trong giai on 2005 2010, Ngun: B Cng Thng.
Trong ba nm tr li y, din tch v sn lng c ph khng c bin ng mnh. Ngnh c ph Vit Nam gi tc tng trng tng i n nh v c sn lng sn xut, lng xut khu cng nh tiu dng ni a. T trng sn lng c ph Arabica vn mc khim tn so vi c ph Robusta khi t trng hai sn phm ny ln lt l 2.56% v 97.44%. ng ch l tc tiu th c ph ni a ang c mc tng trng tng i cao v n nh, d bo trong nin v 2010/2011 sn lng tiu th c ph ni a s t mc tng trng 12.1% so vi cng k nm trc.

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2008/2009 Thi gian bt u nin v: Thng 10 nm 2008 Din tch gieo trng (nghn ha) Din tch thu hoch (nghn ha) Cy mang ht (triu cy) Cy khng mang ht (triu cy) Tng s lng cy (triu cy) S lng d tr ban u (nghn bao) Sn lng c ph Arabica (nghn bao) Sn lng c ph Robusta (nghn bao) Tng sn lng (nghn bao) C ph ht nhp khu (nghn bao) C ph rang & nguyn ht nhp khu (nghn bao) C ph ho tan (nghn bao) Tng nhp khu Tng cung C ph ht xut khu (nghn bao) C ph rang & nguyn ht xut khu (nghn bao) C ph ho tan (nghn bao) Tng xut khu (nghn bao) C ph rang & nguyn ht c tiu th trong nc (nghn bao) C ph ho tan c tiu th trong nc (nghn bao) Tng tiu th trong nc (nghn bao) S dng trong nc (nghn bao) Tng lng phn phi (nghn bao) Sn lng c th xut khu (nghn bao) 531 500 620 75 695 1,561 480 17,520 18,000 70 1 25 96 19,657 16,333 25 105 16,463 964 100 1,064 2,130 19,657 16,936

2009/2010 Thi gian bt u nin v: Thng 10 nm 2009 536 504 629 80 709 2,130 450 17,050 17,500 75 1 25 101 19,731 16,675 25 110 16,810 1,005 110 1,115 1,806 19,731 16,385

2010/2011 Thi gian bt u nin v: Thng 10 nm 2010 540 506 635 83 718 1,747 480 18,253 18,733 80 1 27 108 20,588 16,667 50 115 16,832 1,115 135 1,250 2,506 20,588 17,483

Bng 01: Mt s ch tiu ngnh c ph trong giai on 2008 2011, Ngun: Cc xc tin thng mi B Cng Thng, SMEs tng hp

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Nhng thun li i vi ngnh C ph Vit Nam

Ngnh c ph ha tan ha hn nhiu trin vng khi ngi tiu dng ngy cng nh gi cao s tin li ca dng sn phm ny. Th trng c ph Vit Nam hin c phn chia thnh 2 phn khc r rng: c ph rang xay (c ph phin) chim khong 2/3 sn lng c ph c tiu th ti VN v c ph ho tan chim 1/3. Tp on Nestle mi nm thu mua trung bnh khong t 20-25% sn lng c ph xut khu ca VN phc v cho vic sn xut ti 15 nh my trn ton th gii. Nhu cu trong nc d kin s tng vi tc 10.5%/nm trong giai on 2008-2013 do thu nhp bnh qun u ngi tng v sn phm ngy cng c gii tr a chung nh c tnh tin li, ph hp vi nhp sng th ho. Ngoi nhng tn tui kinh doanh c ph ho tan quen thuc nh NesCafe (Nestle), VinaCafe, G7Coffee (Trung Nguyn)... cui nm 2006 va qua th trng xut hin thm cc nhn hiu mi nh Caf Moment (Cng ty CP Sa VN - Vinamilk), Max Coffee (Singapore) Tc tng trng ca ngnh c ph ha tan trn th gii ni chung v tiu th ni a ni ring tip tc ha hn em li thnh cng cho ngnh c ph Vit Nam. Trong khi cc nc xut khu ln nh Brazil v Indonesia c khuynh hng gim sn lng xut khu c ph Robusta v chuyn hng sang sn xut c ph Arabica, ngnh c ph Vit Nam li c tc chuyn hng tng i chm, tuy nhin y s l mt li th. Khi m tc tng trng nhu cu c ph ha tan (nguyn liu u vo l Robusta) t mc tng trng hai con s v gi c ph rang xay Arabica ngy cng tng mnh, ngnh c ph Vit Nam ang ng trc c hi ln do hin nay Vit Nam ang xut khu ti hn 90% tng sn lng Robusta thu hoch trong nc. Nhu cu tiu th ni a tng nhanh hn sn lng c ph c th xut khu. Kinh t pht trin y nhanh qu trnh th ha nhiu nc trng c ph v to ra nhng chuyn bin ng k i vi nhu cu tiu th c ph th gii, khin nhng nc chuyn xut khu c ph tr thnh nhng nc tiu th c ph hng u. Trong nhiu th k qua, c ph c vn chuyn t M Latinh v chu sang cc quc gia pht trin phng Ty, nhng hin nay ang c s thay i ln khi c ph ngy cng c tiu th nhiu hn ti th trng bn a. Nhu cu tiu th c ph M Latinh v ng Nam chim n 88% trong s 2.5 triu bao (loi 60kg) nhu cu tng thm trong nm 2010. Vit Nam khng ch hng li t s gia tng nhu cu ca cc nc ang pht trin ni chung m cn l th trng ni a rng ln ni ring.

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Nhng thch thc i vi ngnh C ph Vit Nam

Th trng c ph Robusta gi r v cht lng thp ln mnh khin v th ca Vit Nam trn th trng c ph th gii tng nhanh, tuy nhin, ci gi phi tr y l mt i rng v nhng bin i khc v mi trng. S ph thuc qu nhiu vo xut khu nn c ph Vit Nam, theo d bo ca BMI, s bin ng theo cu v gi c c ph Robusta th gii. T nm 1989 n nm 2004, nhng nm khng hong ca ngnh c ph, gi c ph lun mc rt thp khin cho cc nh sn xut phi chu rt nhiu thua l do chi ph sn xut cao hn gi bn. C mt s lo ngi rng vic sn xut cc loi c ph gi r t khin cung vt qu cu s li mt ln na gy ra ln sng gim gi, t to ra nhiu ro cn hn cho nh xut trong vic m rng hot ng sn xut. Nhng thch thc m ngnh c ph Vit Nam ang phi i mt trong tng lai gn bao gm: Din tch c ph ang tr nn gi ci; Phn ln din tch c ph trng khng ng quy cch; Chm sc khng ng k thut; Ngun cy ging khng m bo; Vic sn xut c ph cn mang tnh t pht, nh l. Ngnh c ph l in hnh r nht cho s bt cng trong phn phi ti sn th gii, yu cu xc lp mt thng hiu ni a bn vng l yu cu quan trng cho mt quc gia sn xut c ph ln nh Vit Nam. Khng xy dng c thng hiu mnh, ngnh c ph Vit Nam s vn ch dng li giai on u ca chui sn xut c ph.

Th trng c ph ha tan tng tc

Theo thng k ca Hip hi c ph Anh Quc, nm 2000, t trng tiu th c ph ha tan ch chim 13% trn tng sn lng tiu th c ph v ch sau 10 nm, con s ny vt ngng 40%, hin c ph ha tan vn tip tc tng tc mnh v e da t trng tiu th ca sn phm c ph rang xay truyn thng. Hai quc gia c t l tiu th c ph ha tan ln l Anh vi 81% v Nht Bn vi 63% trong khi ti th trng truyn thng M, lng tiu th c ph ha tan ch chim 9%. Theo s liu ca T chc C ph Quc t (ICO) tiu th c ph ca Vit Nam tng trng 31% trong nm 2010, t 1,583 triu bao trong c ph ha tan chim khong 38.5% tng lng tiu th, c ph rang xay chim khong 61.5%. Tc tng trng sn xut c ph ha tan tng ch khong 4.5% nhng tng trng v tiu th c ph ha tan ca Vit Nam vn t mc hai con s.

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Th trng c ph ha tan Vit Nam tng trng mnh trong

2015(F)
2010 2009 2008 2007 2006

nhng nm tr li y, bnh qun 7.9%/nm trong giai on 2003-2008 v c d bo s gi mc tng trng cao khong 10.5%/nm trong giai on 2008-2013, theo kho st ca Cng ty Nghin cu Th trng Euromonitor. Tnh cho n thi im hin nay, th trng c ph ha tan Vit Nam ang din ra cuc ua tam m gia ba gng mt tiu biu l Vinacafe (Cng ty C phn C ph Bin Ha Vinacafe); Nescafe (Nestl - Thy S) v G7 (Cng ty Trung
0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000

Nguyn), bn cnh cc nhn hng nhp khu khc. Cuc ua chim lnh th trng gia 3 doanh nghip s tip tc l liu thuc kch thch cho s pht trin ca ngnh c ph Vit Nam.

Biu 06: Tng sn lng c ph ha tan ca Vit Nam (tn), Ngun: B NN&PTNT

D bo Ngnh c ph Vit Nam trong nm 2011

Kim ngch (USD) (r=14,4%) 282,794,437 303,146,498 365,007,403 302,130,631 246,241,220 254,020,770 205,301,807 165,827,217 142,181,022 138,340,294 198,280,499 409,343,215 3,012,615,013

Thi im Thng 1* Thng 2* Thng 3* Thng 4* Thng 5** Thng 6** Thng 7** Thng 8** Thng 9** Thng 10** Thng 11** Thng 12** Cng

Khi lng (tn) (r=12,5%) 145,304 144,275 160,569 126,187 102,311 106,895 85,452 69,637 59,909 57,679 81,084 165,463 1,304,765

Ngun: Kt qu d bo ca Trung tm Tin hc v Thng k Ghi ch: r-sai s d bo; * Gi tr thc t; ** Gi tr d bo

Bng 02: D bo khi lng v kim ngch xut khu c ph theo thng ca nm 2011.

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Theo c tnh ca ICO, sn lng c ph ca Vit Nam trong nin v 2010/11 t khong 1.5 triu bao (bao 60 kg), tc 1.11 triu tn, tng 1.6% so vi nin v trc. Trong khi , theo s liu thng k ca Tng cc Hi quan, trong 4 thng u nm 2011 Vit Nam xut khu c 698.3 nghn tn c ph, t gi tr 1.5 t la, tng 47.5% v lng v tng gp hn 2 ln v gi tr (+128.9%) so vi cng k nm ngoi. B v M l hai th trng tiu th c ph ln nht ca nc ta vi th phn ln lt l 11.1% v 10.8%. Tip theo l cc th trng c, v Ty Ban Nha. Cn trong 5 thng u nm nay, xut khu c ph vt 1.8 t la, tr thnh mt hng nng sn n l c kim ngch xut khu cao nht. D bo xut khu c ph ca nm 2011 s t mc hn 1,3 triu tn v lng v hn 3 t USD v gi tr.

Vi th mnh v sn xut c ph Robusta, v tc tng trng mnh hai con s ca dng sn phm c ph ha tan, ngnh c ph c k vng s ng gp 3 t USD xut khu ca Vit Nam trong nm 2011.

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PHN TCH CC DOANH NGHIP C PH NIM YT

Hin ti c ba doanh nghip sn xut c ph nim yt l CTCP Vinacafe Bin Ha (VCF) CTCP C ph An Giang (AGC) CTCP Tp on Thi Ha (THV)

VCF Gi tham chiu (Ngy 08/06/2011) SLCP Lu hnh Gi tr vn ha (t ng) C cu s hu (%) S hu Nh nc S hu Nc ngoi S hu khc Doanh thu 2010 (t ng) Tng trng DT (%) LNST 2010 (t ng) T sut li nhun rng (%) EPS 2010 (VND) 50.26 1.66 49.08 1,301.66 27.50 161.56 12.40 6,079 63,000 26,579,135 1,674.49

AGC 7,300 8,300,000 60.59 0.00 1.65 98.35 1,082.38 (52.10) 18.84 1.70 2,306

THV 8,800 55,000,000 484.00 0.00 11.75 88.25 2,273.94 (31.10) 34.80 1.90 866

Bng 03: Mt s ch s chnh ca ba doanh nghip VCF, AGC v THV, Ngun: Stoxplus
y l ba doanh nghip c th coi l i din cho ngnh c ph Vit Nam. Tuy cng hot ng trong ngnh sn xut sn phm c ph, nhng ba doanh nghip trn c s khc bit ln trong c cu sn xut sn phm, khi m Vinacafe Bin Ha (VCF) c danh mc sn phm bao gm c ph rang xay (chim khong 0.5% tng doanh thu), c ph en ha tan (1.5%), c ph sa 3 trong 1 v c ph nhn sm 4 trong 1 (79%) v ng cc dinh dng (19%) C ph An Giang (AGC) li tp trung ch yu vo sn xut c ph nhn x Robusta chim ch trng ti hn 95%, cn li l sn xut iu nhn v tiu. CTCP Thi Ha (THV) ging nh AGC tp trung ch yu l sn xut c ph nhn, c th l 17.17% c ph Arabica, 79.12% l c ph Robusta v 3.71% l sn phm c ph ha tan v sn phm khc.

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CTCP Vinacafe Bin Ha (VCF)

Vinacafe Bin Ha (Vinacafe BH) c thnh lp vo nm 1975 bng hnh thc mua li nh my ch bin c ph u tin ti Vit Nam. Vinacafe Bin Ha ch xut khu 5 10% sn lng, sn phm ca Vinacafe Bin Ha ch yu phc v th trng ni a. Trong giai on 2006 2010, VCF c mc tng trng doanh thu rt n tng, t 25%/nm. Tuy l cng ty c truyn thng sn xut c ph, tuy nhin, hin nay sn phm ng cc li l sn phm c tc tng trng cao nht vi mc tng bnh qun giai on 2006 - 2010 nm qua l 32%/nm, hin dng sn phm ny chim 19% trong c cu tng doanh thu ca VCF. Bn cnh , VCF tip tc gi li th truyn thng v mt hng c ph sa ha tan vi mc tng trng cao t 29%/nm trong cng k. Hin ti, VCF ang tp trung vo vic nng cao cng sut hot ng, tuy nhin nhanh nht l Q3/2012 khi nh my mi ti KCN Long Thnh, ng Nai c a vo hot ng th VCF mi c kh nng t ph v doanh thu v li nhun. Trong nm 2011, VCF d kin doanh thu s t gn 2,000 t ng, tng mnh ti 53.7% so vi nm 2010, tuy nhin c t li nhun rng 2011 li kh thp, ch mc 139.2 t ng, xp x mc d kin trong 2 nm 2009 v 2010, v gim ti 13.8% so vi LNST thc t ca nm 2010. Nhiu kh nng nguyn nhn chnh khin VCF khng lc quan v li nhun rng nm 2011 l do chi ph li vay v chi ph sn xut cao, gi c ph d kin tip tc mc cao. Bn cnh , d bo gi ng, mt trong ba nguyn liu chnh sn xut sn phm c ph 3 trong 1, tip tc leo thang trong nm 2011 do ngun cung thiu ht. ng ch , gi tr hng tn kho ti thi im 31/12/2010 t 196.7 t ng, tng mnh 86.3% so vi cng k nm trc, y l mt trong nhng yu t ha hn tng trng v doanh thu ca VCF trong nm 2011. Do vy, trong nm 2011, VCF gn nh khng th c bc t ph v li nhun v cc nh my hin ti hot ng gn ht cng sut v chi ph u vo tng cao, kt qu kinh doanh 2011 s ph thuc nhiu vo kt qu doanh thu t sn phm ng cc.
GT hng tn kho 2010 (t ng) Tng trng gi tr hng tn kho Doanh thu 2011 (t ng) Tng trng doanh thu 2011 LNST 2011 (t ng) Tng trng LNST 196.7 86.3% 2,000.0 53.7% 139.2 -13.8%
1.66% 49.08% 50.26%

S hu Nh nc S hu Nc ngoi S hu khc

C cu ch s hu

Bin ng gi v KLGD ca VCF trong 6 thng gn y, Ngun: CafeF

D bo mt s ch tiu ti chnh ca VCF nm 2011, Ngun: Stoxplus

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CTCP C Ph An Giang (AGC)

1.65%

Cng ty C phn C ph An Giang (AGC) c chuyn sang hnh thc cng ty c phn vo ngy 3/01/2008, tng vn u t t 15 t ln n 83 t. Vi cng sut ch bin 60,000 tn/nm, AGC chim t trng xut khu l 5% so vi t trng xut khu c nc. Ngun nguyn liu ch yu ca cng ty l t cc tnh khu vc Gia Lai, k lk, k Nng, Lm ng, ng Nai, Bnh Phc ... thng qua cc i

98.35%

l v cng ty thu mua. Hin An Giang c khong 50 nh cung cp thng xuyn gip p ng nhu cu sn xut ca cng ty. Mt s khch hng ln ca cng ty
S hu khc

S hu Nc ngoi

c th k n nh Nestle (chim xp x 50% sn lng ca AGC), tp on c ph Walter Matter, SunWah, Atlantic, Bero, Sucafina, Icona, Mercon, Intercon, Itochu,

C cu ch s hu

Volcafe, Sucre Export... c bit, c ph nhn ca AGC c cht lng cao do c s ch vi h thng hin i loi ht xu, lm bng, phun mu nn gi xut khu cao hn trung bnh ngnh. Gi tr hng tn kho ti thi im 31/12/2010 ca AGC l 169.3 t ng, gim mnh 22% so vi cng k nm ngoi, y khng phi l mt yu t tch cc cho k hoch sn xut ca nm 2011. C th thy r iu ny nh hng trc tip n kt qu kinh doanh qu I/2011, khi doanh thu QI/2011 gim mnh 62.7% so vi cng k nm ngoi. Tuy nhin, AGC li c c tn hiu tch cc t kt qu LNST vi mc tng trng 327.3% so vi cng k nm ngoi. Bn cnh khon mc li

Bin ng gi v KLGD ca AGC trong 6 thng gn y, Ngun: CafeF

nhun khc 1.16 t ng, tng trng li nhun ca AGC n t vic gim mnh gi vn hng bn. Nhiu kh nng trong nm 2011, tng trng v LNST ca AGC tip tc n t vic iu chnh gim gi vn hng bn.

GT hng tn kho 2010 (t ng) Tng trng gi tr hng tn kho Doanh thu QI/2011 (t ng) Tng trng doanh thu QI/2011 LNST QI/2011 (t ng) Tng trng LNST QI/2011

169.3 -22.0% 77.5 -62.7% 2.1 327.3%

Bn cnh mng sn xut chnh l c ph nhn, AGC cn hot ng trong lnh vc khai thc cng, vn ti, tuy nhin, y vn khng phi li th ca AGC, do khng loi tr ri ro n t hai lnh vc ny. V lnh vc sn xut c ph nhn, ch yu sn phm ca AGC l Robusta c mc gi tng i n nh, h thng khch hng n nh, iu ny ng ngha vi vic t bin v doanh thu v li nhun ca AGC s ch n t vic duy tr gi vn hng bn mc thp.

Mt s ch tiu ti chnh QI/2011 ca AGC, Ngun: Stoxplus (Tnh n ht ngy 8/6/2011, AGC cha c k hoch kinh doanh 2011)

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CTCP Thi Ha (THV)

Cng ty c phn Tp on Thi Ha Vit Nam tin thn l Cng ty TNHH Sn xut v Thng mi Thi Ha c thnh lp nm 1996 vi vn iu l ban u l 0.5 t ng. Hin nay, CTCP Tp on Thi Ha ang hot ng theo m hnh cng ty m - cng ty con vi 11 ng ty con, s hu chi phi trn 51%, trong c 05 cng ty s hu 100% vn c phn vi h thng ch bin hin i trn khp cc vng c ph ca Vit Nam, THV cng ang c k hoch m rng sn xut sang th trng Lo tim nng. C cu doanh thu v li nhun ca cc sn phm c ph Arabica, Robusta, c ph ha tan v cc sn phm khc qua cc nm cho thy THV ch trng pht trin th mnh ca mnh l nng t trng xut khu c ph Arabica. Vi li th ng u Vit Nam v xut khu Arabica cng vi bin ng tng gi k lc ca c ph th gii trong thi gian gn y. Trong nm 2010, mc d doanh thu ca THV gim ti 31.1% v chi ph ti chnh tng mnh ti 75.7% tuy nhin mc gim gi vn hng bn ln ti 38.22% gip cho THV tng trng mnh m LNST vi mc tng xp x 32 ln so vi cng k nm 2010. Bc sang 2011 vi li th hng tn kho tng cao 51.4%, THV t tin a ra d kin doanh thu 2011 t 3,239 t ng, tng 42.4% so vi cng k nm 2010, LNST d kin cng tng mnh 129.9% t xp x 80 t ng. Cng ty lun duy tr mc d n cao, tng d n ngn hn v di hn ti thi im cui nm 2010 mc trn 2,000 t ng, y l p lc ln ln hot ng sn xut kinh doanh ca THV, c bit trong giai on li sut cho vay ang mc cao nh hin nay. Tuy nhin, cc khon vay ca THV ch yu l cc khon vay ngn hn, v c ti tr bi cc hp ng xut khu, do mc d t gi bin ng mnh trong nm 2010, nhng THV l doanh nghip xut khu nn khng chu nh hng nhiu bi yu t ny. Gi c ph Arabica tip tc xu hng tng mnh l c s THV t mc tiu tng trng mc cao trong nm 2011. THV thc hin tng vn iu l ln 1,000 t v pht hnh 1,500 t tri phiu chuyn i y tham vng trong nm 2011 cha c kt qu r rng, do nhiu kh nng kt qu sn xut kinh doanh thc t 2011 s c nhiu bin ng so vi d bo. http://www.smes.vn Trang 17
88.25% 11.75%

S hu Nc ngoi

S hu khc

C cu ch s hu

Bin ng gi v KLGD ca THV trong 6 thng gn y, Ngun: CafeF

GT hng tn kho 2010 (t ng) Tng trng gi tr hng tn kho Doanh thu 2011 (t ng) Tng trng doanh thu 2011 LNST 2011 (t ng) Tng trng LNST

1,524.2 51.4% 3,239.0 42.4% 80.0 129.9%

D bo mt s ch tiu ti chnh ca THV nm 2011, Ngun: Stoxplus

KHUYN NGH U T
Vi th mnh v sn xut c ph Robusta, v tc tng trng mnh hai con s ca dng sn phm c ph ha tan, ngnh c ph c k vng s ng gp 3 t USD xut khu ca Vit Nam trong nm 2011. Ngnh c ph ca Vit Nam ang ng trc c hi tin dn ln trong chui gi tr sn xut c ph. Khng ch dng li th mnh xut khu c ph truyn thng, th trng trong nc rng ln l ni cc doanh nghip c ph ca Vit Nam tm kim c hi, do c phiu ngnh c ph ha hn tim nng ln trong di hn. Mt khc, c ph vn l sn phm mang tnh u c, c phiu ngnh c ph c thanh khon tt v c sc bt tng i mnh so vi th trng, do ph hp vi c xu hng u t ngn hn, lt sng. Trong ba doanh nghip c ph nim yt, VCF l c phiu ph hp hn vi NT trung v di hn, t c kh nng to t bin v doanh thu v li nhun trong nm 2011 do phi i mt vi chi ph nguyn vt liu u vo tng cao trong khi kh nng tng gi thnh sn phm l khng cao do phi cnh tranh mnh m vi hai doanh nghip ln trn th trng c ph ha tan l Nestle v Trung Nguyn Trong nm 2011, chng ti nhn nh THV s c li th ln do c lng hng tn kho ln i cng xu hng gi c ph Arabica tng cao. Gi vn hng bn tip tc duy tr mc thp trong nin v 2010/2011 v hng li t xu hng tng gi c ph th gii cng s l nhng yu t thun li h tr cho AGC. Tuy nhin, AGC vi sn phm chnh l Robusta, c bin ng gi khng mnh v sn lng sn xut hng nm n nh s kh c th to ra t bin v kt qu hot ng sn xut kinh doanh so vi THV.

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KHI PHN TCH - U T

V Duy Khnh Chuyn vin phn tch Nguyn Tin t Chuyn vin phn tch Nguyn Th Vn Anh Chuyn vin phn tch Phm Minh T Chuyn vin phn tch

TR S CHNH: 39 Ng Quyn, Hon Kim, H Ni Tel: (84-4) 22205678 (ext: 408) Fax: (84-4) 22205668 Email: research@sme.vn Website: http://www.smes.vn

CHI NHNH TP. HCM: 11 Trn Quc Tho, Qun 3, HCM Tel: (84-8) 310147388 Fax: (84-8) 310308707 Email: research@sme.vn Website: http://www.smes.vn

* Tt c nhng thng tin nu trong bo co phn tch ny c xem xt cn trng, tuy nhin Cng ty C phn Chng khon SME (SMES) khng chu bt k mt trch nhim no i vi tnh chnh xc ca nhng thng tin c cp n trong bo co. Mi quan im cng nh nhn nh phn tch trong bn tin cng c th c thay i m khng cn bo trc. Bo co ch nhm mc tiu cung cp thng tin m khng hm khuyn co ngi c mua, bn hay nm gi chng khon. Ngi c ch nn s dng bo co phn tch ny nh mt ngun thng tin tham kho. SMES c th c nhng hot ng hp tc kinh doanh vi cc i tng c cp n trong bo co. Ngi c cn lu rng SMES c th c nhng xung t li ch i vi cc nh u t khi thc hin bo co phn tch ny. Bo co ny c bn quyn v l ti sn ca Cng ty C phn Chng khon SME (SMES). Mi hnh vi sao chp, sa i, in n m khng c s ng ca SMES u tri lut. Bn quyn thuc Cng ty C phn Chng khon SME, 2011.

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