KHNG HONG KINH T NHN T QUAN IM PHT GIO H Hong Hng ---o0o--Ngun http://thuvienhoasen.

org Chuyn sang ebook 10 8 - 2009 Ngi thc hin : Nam Thin namthien@gmail.com Link Audio Ti Website http://www.phatphaponline.org ---o0o--Trong bui u bnh minh ca nhn loi, cuc sinh k ca con ngi ch yu qua phng cch t cung t cp, t sn t tiu. Nhn loi thi k ny t sn bn, hi lm sinh sng. Ri nhn loi ngy cng ng v kt hp vi k thut sn bn, trng trt, chn nui theo thi gian m c ci thin lm cho sn vt ngy cng nhiu v con ngi bt u thy nhiu sn vt mnh lm ra khng s dng ht, trong khi ngi khc li lm ra nhiu sn vt khc m mnh khng lm c. Th l ny sinh nhu cu trao i hng ha, sn vt ny vi sn vt kia. V con ngi bt u ngh ra cch trao i, v d: 1 con g i ly 2 kg thc, v h ngh n gin l nui 1 con g cng tn cng tng ng lm ra 2 kg thc... Thi k nhn loi bc vo k nguyn s dng tin lm phng tin trung gian trao i sn phm, hng ha, dch v Vi s tin b qua qu trnh lao ng sn xut, lc lng sn xut v cc cng c sn xut ngy cng pht trin, ci tin, quan h sn xut tng bc iu chnh a n sn phm lm ra ngy cng nhiu, nhn loi tin ti sn xut hng ha. Nhu cu phi c mt vt lm phng tin trung gian trao i gia cc hng ha vi nhau. V nhn loi ngh ra mt phng tin gi tn l tin lm phng tin trao i hng ha. Tin l phng tin trong thi k ny c lm bng cc kim loi (vng, bc, ng, nhm) ty theo mi quc gia. Tin c biu hin bng gi tr ca cc kim loi qu ny ng vai tr biu hin gi tr ca vt c trao i. Tip theo thun tin trong lu thng, v d in n nhn loi pht minh ra tin giy. n y th giy bn thn ni ti ca n khng c gi tr m ch

l du hiu ca gi tr c cng nhn trong phm vi quc gia pht hnh m thi. Theo kinh t hc, tin c 5 chc nng sau y: 1. Thc o gi tr: y l chc nng chnh yu ca tin, do vy n phi c biu hin bng vng v y l kim loi qu him; 2. Phng tin lu thng (trong chc nng ny n bc l mm mng khng hong kinh t v hnh vi bn v hnh vi mua c th tch ri nhau c v thi gian v khng gian, nh vy gi tr thc ca tin tch ri gi tr danh ngha ca n); 3. Phng tin ct tr; 4. Phng tin thanh ton (chc nng ny cng cha ng mm mng khng hong kinh t); v 5.Tin t th gii Thi i tin ln ngi Trong hai th k va qua, t bit l th k 20, vi s pht trin nh v bo ca khoa hc k thut, s ln mnh ca lc lng sn xut v tri thc to nn mt nn kinh t hng ha pht trin v bo, hng ha sn xut nhiu n ni to ra cnh ni tha th dng lng thc lm nguyn liu chy u my xe la thm phc ni th thiu i. Cuc khng honh kinh t 1930 l minh chng. Giao thng ca nhn loi ngy cng m rng, xuyn bin gii, ton cu ha. Tt nhin trong giai on ny tin vi chc nng tin t quc t c biu hin bng giy v ngi ta thng s dng tin ca cc quc gia c nn kinh t mnh. Mt trong nhng ng tin c cc nc s dng trong giao thng nhiu nht l ng -la M, ni c nn kinh t ln nht th gii. V t y ta bt u phn tch tr chi ca phng tin tin trong giai on hin i ti M nh sau: Phi tha nhn M l mt quc gia c nn kinh t ln nht ton cu v l ni tp trung hu ht cc nh ch ti chnh ngn hng v cc nh ch ti chnh

nh ngn hng (bank-like institutions) nhiu nht trn th gii. V nhng nh ch ny ch ra cc tr chi tin di nhiu hnh thc khc nhau m ta thng gi cc cc sn phm ti chnh phi sinh derivative nhiu nht trn th gii. V sau y l v d minh ha qui trnh ca tr chi to gi tr o c bt u t loi tn dng di chun (subprime credit): 1. Ngn hng cho vay mua nh, th chp bng chnh ngi nh ; 2. Ngn hng pht hnh chng khon c m bo bng ti sn th chp (mortgaged-back securities); 3. Cc nh u t, qu u t, cng ty u t ti chnh (cc loi ny rt nhiu M nhng li khng c gim st cht ch nh cc ngn hng) nhy vo mua bn cc loi chng khon ny 4. Cc ch th u t c cp mc 3 bt u dng nhiu tiu xo k thut thi gi tr ca cc chng khon ny thm na, o by gi cng o hn, tt nhin cc c quan chc nng ca chnh ph khng kim sot c cc tr ny; 5. Li thm cng ty bo him nhy vo bo him ti chnh cho cc chng khon loi ny. Ta th hi qua 5 bc c bn trn, gi tr mt ngi nh c th hin bng mt t giy c th c thi ln gp bao nhiu ln? V vi loi tn dng d di trn ngi ta ua nhau mua nh bn li hng chnh lch th gi nh tng chng mt to nn gi tr bong bng o. ng l trong thi k ny, Qu D tr Lin bang (Federal Reserve System gi tt l FED) v cc c quan chuyn trch ca chnh ph M phi s dng cc cng c hay sng to ra cc cng c mi kim sot, kim ch cuc chi to gi tr o ny, th FED li qun mt i vai tr v chc nng ca mnh. V nguy him hn, FED li kch thch con th lun chy theo li nhun mt cch khng y ny bng cch lin tc cch gim li sut t 7%-6% xung n 1-2% (giai on cch y vi nm) hnh ng ca FED thc y cuc ua o sp nhanh chng.

Tr li qui trnh trn ti mc s 1, khi gi nh qu cao vt gi tr thc rt ln, th n b ng li. Ngi ta ht kh nng mua nh v tr n, s 1 sp , cc s cn li t ng nho theo hiu ng domino, a n th trng ti chnh khng hong. Nh ta bit th trng M l ni m c ca cc nc. Cc nc lun xy dng chin lc xut khu hng v th trng ny, ngi ta ni khng m th ch vn ng nhng trn thc t th khng ai mun m ny vng mt trong ch c! Dn M tha h tiu xi, mua sm hng ha cc nc (c c mua chu tn dng tiu dng) trong khi xut khu M th chm hn, dn n cn cn thng mi thm ht mt cn bng, cng vi chi ph chin tranh dn n thm ht ngn sch, th l M pht hnh tri phiu. Cc nc li ua nhau mua (Trung quc mua nhiu nht!). Cc dng sng tin u v bin M. V nh trn phn tch, khi s 1 nho, th l mt m bng bong ma trn u t ri lon, mt nim tin, a n khng hong kinh t. Li Pht dy: Tt c ch l phng tin Pht dy rng vt cht, thn ny ch l phng tin. Chng ta s dng vt cht-thn-tin nh bn cht ca n m thi. Theo Pht thn ny l bn n ngn n tm sng t. Pht khng bi bc vt cht nhng cng khng bm vu v chy theo n qu trn. Ri b bn n th khng c nh sng, nhng bm vu bn n qu th nh sng khng cao. Ch c s dng n ng cch nh bn cht ca n th nh sng t, chnh l l Trung o, ci ny c v ci kia c, b ci ny th ci kia khng c. Chng ta ngy nay khng nhng chy theo, bm vu (tt nhin v chng ta l ngi tc) m cn bin ha, thi gi tr ca n ln cao, m khi n thot khi bn cht ca n th n khng cn l ci m cc nh kinh t hc nh ngha ban u l phng tin m thi. ---o0o--Kt lun

Vic phn tch n y r, nu chng ta quyt nh tip tc dng hao ph lao ng sng to ca tr c tip tc tr chi ny th phi c cc cng c, bin php kim sot n. Tuy nhin, ni g th ni, cng phi nhn thy bn cht ca tin t chnh l phng tin, m l phng tin th ch nn s dng n ng nh bn cht ca n m thi. (hoangphap.info) ---o0o--Ht