XSTK SVDHnew

H Cng nghip Tp.
HCM
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Tuesday, November 29, 2011
Xc sut - Thng k i hc 1
X X C SU C SU T & TH T & TH NG K NG K
I H I H C C
PHN PH PHN PH I CHNG TRNH I CHNG TRNH
S S ti ti t t: 30 : 30
--------------------- ---------------------
PHN I. L THUYT XC SUT
(Probability theory)
Chng 1. Xc sut ca Bin c
Chng 2. Bin ngu nhin
Chng 3. Phn phi Xc sut thng dng
Chng 4. Vector ngu nhin
Chng 5. nh l gii hn trong Xc sut
PHN II. L THUYT THNG K
(Statistical theory)
Chng 6. Mu thng k v c lng tham s
Chng 7. Kim nh Gi thuyt Thng k
Chng 8. Bi ton Tng quan v Hi quy
Ti liu tham kho

1. Nguyn Ph Vinh Gio trnh Xc sut Thng k
v ng dng NXB Thng k.
2. inh Ngc Thanh Gio trnh Xc sut Thng k
H Tn c Thng Tp.HCM.
3. ng Hng Thng Bi tp Xc sut; Thng k
NXB Gio dc.
4. L S ng Xc sut Thng k v ng dng
NXB Gio dc.
5. o Hu H Xc sut Thng k
NXB Khoa hc & K thut.
6. u Th Cp Xc sut Thng k L thuyt v
cc bi tp NXB Gio dc.
7. Phm Xun Kiu Gio trnh Xc sut v Thng k
NXB Gio dc.
8. Nguyn Cao Vn Gio trnh L thuyt Xc sut
& Thng k NXB Kt Quc dn.
9. F.M. Dekking A modern introduction to Probability
and Statistics Springer Publication (2005).
Bin Bin so so n n: : ThS ThS. . o o n n Vng Vng Nguyn Nguyn
Download Slide Download Slide b b i i gi gi ng ng XSTK XSTK_ _H H t t i i
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PHN I. L THUYT XC SUT
(Probability theory)
Chng 1. XC SUT CA BIN C
1. Bin c ngu nhin
2. Xc sut ca bin c
3. Cng thc tnh xc sut
1. BIN C NGU NHIN

1.1. Hin tng ngu nhin
Ngi ta chia cc hin tng xy ra trong i sng
hng ny thnh hai loi: tt nhin v ngu nhin.
Chng Chng 1. 1. X X c c su su t t c c a a Bi Bi n n c c
Nhng hin tng m khi c thc hin trong cng
mt iu kin s cho ra kt qu nh nhau c gi l
nhng hin tng tt nhin.
Chng hn, un nc iu kin bnh thng n
100
0
C th nc s bc hi; mt ngi nhy ra khi my
bay ang bay th ngi s ri xung l tt nhin.
Nhng hin tng m cho d khi c thc hin trong
cng mt iu kin vn c th s cho ra cc kt qu
khc nhau c gi l nhng hin tng ngu nhin.
Chng hn, gieo mt ht la iu kin bnh thng
th ht la c th ny mm cng c th khng ny mm.
Hin tng ngu nhin chnh l i tng kho st ca
l thuyt xc sut.
1.2. Php th v bin c
quan st cc hin tng ngu nhin, ngi ta cho
cc hin tng ny xut hin nhiu ln. Vic thc hin
mt quan st v mt hin tng ngu nhin no ,
xem hin tng ny c xy ra hay khng c gi l
mt php th (test).
Khi thc hin mt php th, ta khng th d on c
kt qu xy ra. Tuy nhin, ta c th lit k tt c cc kt
qu c th xy ra.
Tp hp tt c cc kt qu c th xy ra ca mt
php th c gi l khng gian mu ca php th
. K hiu l .
H Cng nghip Tp.HCM
VD 1. Xt mt sinh vin thi ht mn XSTK, th hnh
ng ca sinh vin ny l mt php th.
Tp hp tt c cc im s:
{0; 0, 5; 1; 1, 5;...; 9, 5; 10} =
m sinh vin ny c th t l khng gian mu.
Cc phn t:
1
0 = ,
2
0, 5 = ,,
21
10 =
l cc bin c s cp.
Mi phn t c gi l mt bin c s cp.
Mi tp A c gi l mt bin c (events).
Cc tp con ca :
: A sinh vin ny thi t mn XSTK;
: B sinh vin ny thi hng mn XSTK.
Trong mt php th, bin c m chc chn s xy ra
c gi l bin c chc chn. K hiu l .
Bin c khng th xy ra c gi l bin c rng.
K hiu l .
VD 2. T nhm c 6 nam v 4 n, ta chn ngu nhin
ra 5 ngi. Khi , bin c chn c t nht 1 nam
l chc chn; bin c chn c 5 ngi n l rng.
{4; 4, 5;...; 10} A = , {0; 0, 5;...; 3, 5} B = ,
l cc bin c.
Cc bin c A, B c th c pht biu li l:
1.3. Quan h gia cc bin c
a) Quan h tng ng
VD 3. Quan st 4 con g mi trng trong 1 ngy. Gi

i
A : c i con g mi trng trong 1 ngy, 0, 4 i = .
A: c 3 hoc 4 con g mi trng trong 1 ngy.
B: c nhiu hn 2 con g mi trng trong 1 ngy.
Khi , ta c:
3
A B ,
2
A B , B A v A B = .
Trong 1 php th, bin c A c gi l ko theo bin
c B nu khi A xy ra th B xy ra. K hiu l A B .
Hai bin c A v B c gi l tng ng vi nhau
nu A B v B A . K hiu l A B = .
b) Tng v tch ca hai bin c
VD 4. Mt ngi th sn bn hai vin n vo mt con
th v con th s cht nu n b trng c hai vin n.
Gi :
i
A vin n th i trng con th (i = 1, 2);
: A con th b trng n; : B con th b cht.
Tng ca hai bin c A v B l mt bin c, bin c
ny xy ra khi A xy ra hay B xy ra trong mt php
th (t nht mt trong hai bin c xy ra).
K hiu l A B hay A B .
Tch ca hai bin c A v B l mt bin c, bin c
ny xy ra khi c A v B cng xy ra trong mt php
th. K hiu l A B hay AB.
Khi , ta c:
1 2
A A A = v
1 2
B A A = .
VD 5. Xt php th gieo hai ht la.
Gi :
i
N ht la th i ny mm;
:
i
K ht la th i khng ny mm (i = 1, 2);
: A c 1 ht la ny mm.
Khi , khng gian mu ca php th l:
1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2
{ ; ; ; } K K N K K N N N = .
Cc bin c tch sau y l cc bin c s cp:
1 1 2 2 1 2 3 1 2 4 1 2
, , , K K N K K N N N = = = = .
Bin c A khng phi l s cp v
1 2 1 2
A N K K N = .
c) Bin c i lp
VD 6. T 1 l hng cha 12 chnh phm v 6 ph phm,
ngi ta chn ngu nhin ra 15 sn phm.
Gi :
i
A chn c i chnh phm, 9,10,11,12 i = .
Ta c khng gian mu l:
9 10 11 12
A A A A = ,
v
10 10 9 11 12
\ A A A A A = = .
Trong 1 php th, bin c A c gi l bin c i lp
(hay bin c b) ca bin c A nu v ch nu khi A
xy ra th A khng xy ra v ngc li, khi A khng
xy ra th A xy ra.
Vy ta c: \ . A A =
H Cng nghip Tp.HCM
1.4. H y cc bin c
a) Hai bin c xung khc
Hai bin c A v B c gi l xung khc vi nhau
trong mt php th nu A v B khng cng xy ra.
VD 7. Hai sinh vin A v B cng thi mn XSTK.
Gi : A sinh vin A thi ;
: B ch c sinh vin B thi ;
: C ch c 1 sinh vin thi .
Khi ,A v B l xung khc; B v C khng xung khc.
Ch
Trong VD 7, A v B xung khc nhng khng i lp.
b) H y cc bin c
VD 8. Trn ln 4 bao la vo nhau ri bc ra 1 ht.
Gi
i
A : ht la bc c l ca bao th i , 1, 4 i = .
Khi , h
1 2 3 4
{ ; ; ; } A A A A l y .
Ch
Trong 1 php th, h { ; } A A l y vi A ty .
Trong mt php th, h gm n bin c { }

i
A , 1, i n =
c gi l h y khi v ch khi c duy nht bin
c
0
i
A ,
0
{1; 2;...; } i n ca h xy ra. Ngha l:
1) ,
i j
A A i j = v 2)
1 2
...
n
A A A = .
2. XC SUT CA BIN C
Quan st cc bin c i vi mt php th, mc d
khng th khng nh mt bin c c xy ra hay khng
nhng ngi ta c th phng on kh nng xy ra ca
cc bin c ny l t hay nhiu. Kh nng xy ra khch
quan ca mt bin c c gi l xc sut (probability)
ca bin c .
Xc sut ca bin c A, k hiu l ( ) P A , c th c
nh ngha bng nhiu dng sau:
dng c in;
dng thng k;
dng tin Kolmogorov;
dng hnh hc.
2.1. nh ngha xc sut dng c in
Xt mt php th vi khng gian mu
1
{ ;...; }
n
=
v bin c A c k phn t. Nu n bin c s cp
c cng kh nng xy ra (ng kh nng) th xc sut
ca bin c A c nh ngha l:
( ) .
k
P A
n
= =
So trng hp A xay ra
So tr ng h p co the xa y ra

VD 1. Mt cng ty cn tuyn hai nhn vin. C 4 ngi
n v 2 ngi nam np n ngu nhin (kh nng trng
tuyn ca 6 ngi l nh nhau). Tnh xc sut :
1) c hai ngi trng tuyn u l n;
2) c t nht mt ngi n trng tuyn.
VD 2. T mt hp cha 6 sn phm tt v 4 ph phm
ngi ta chn ngu nhin ra 5 sn phm.
Tnh xc sut c:
1) c 5 sn phm u tt; 2) ng 2 ph phm.
VD 3. Ti mt bnh vin c 50 ngi ang ch kt qu
khm bnh. Trong c 12 ngi ch kt qu ni soi,
15 ngi ch kt qu siu m, 7 ngi ch kt qu c
ni soi v siu m. Gi tn ngu nhin mt ngi trong
50 ngi ny, hy tnh xc sut gi c ngi ang
ch kt qu ni soi hoc siu m?
2.2. nh ngha xc sut dng thng k
Nu khi thc hin mt php th no n ln, thy c
k ln bin c A xut hin th t s
k
n
c gi l tn
sut ca bin c A.
Khi n thay i, tn sut cng thay i theo nhng lun
dao ng quanh mt s c nh lim
n
k
p
n
= .
S p c nh ny c gi l xc sut ca bin c A
theo ngha thng k.
Trong thc t, khi n ln th ( )
k
P A
n
.
H Cng nghip Tp.HCM
VD 4.
Pearson gieo mt ng tin cn i, ng cht
12.000 ln thy c 6.019 ln xut hin mt sp (tn
sut l 0,5016); gieo 24.000 ln thy c 12.012 ln
xut hin mt sp (tn sut l 0,5005).
Laplace nghin cu t l sinh trai gi London,
Petecbua v Berlin trong 10 nm v a ra tn sut
sinh b gi l 21/43.
Cramer nghin cu t l sinh trai gi Thy in
trong nm 1935 v kt qu c 42.591 b gi c sinh
ra trong tng s 88.273 tr s sinh, tn sut l 0,4825.
2.3. nh ngha xc sut dng hnh hc (tham kho)
Cho min . Gi o ca
l di, din tch, th tch
(ng vi l ng cong,
min phng, khi). Xt im
M ri ngu nhin vo min .
Gi A: im M ri vo min S , ta c:

( ) . P A =

o o S
o o

VD 5. Tm xc sut ca im M ri vo hnh trn ni
tip tam gic u c cnh 2 cm.
Gii. Gi A: im M ri vo hnh trn ni tip.
Din tch ca tam gic l:

2
2
2 . 3
( ) 3
4
dt cm = = .
Bn knh ca hnh trn l:

1 2 3 3
.
3 2 3
r cm = =
2
3
( ) ( ) 0, 6046
3 3
3 3
dt S P A
1

= = = =

( )
.
VD 6. Hai ngi bn hn gp nhau ti 1 a im xc
nh trong khong t 7h n 8h. Mi ngi n (v
chc chn n) im hn mt cch c lp, nu khng
gp ngi kia th i 30 pht hoc n 8 gi th khng
i na. Tm xc sut hai ngi gp nhau.
Gii. Chn mc thi gian 7h l 0.
Gi , x y (gi) l thi gian
tng ng ca mi ngi
i n im hn, ta c:
0 1, 0 1 x y .
Suy ra l hnh vung
c cnh l 1 n v.
0, 5 0, 5 0
0, 5
0, 5 0, 5 0.
x y x y
x y
x y x y
' '
1 1
1 1

! !
1 1
1 1
+ +

Suy ra, min gp nhau gp nhau ca hai ngi l S :
{0 1, 0 1, 0, 5 0, 0, 5 0} x y x y x y .
Vy
( ) 3
75%
( ) 4
dt S
p
dt
= = =
.
2.4. Tnh cht ca xc sut
1) Nu A l bin c ty th 0 ( ) 1 P A ;
2) ( ) 0 P = ; 3) ( ) 1 P = ;
4) Nu A B th ( ) ( ) P A P B .
T iu kin, ta c:
3. CNG THC TNH XC SUT
3.1. Cng thc cng xc sut
Xt mt php th, ta c cc cng thc cng xc sut sau
Nu A v B l hai bin c ty :
( ) ( ) ( ) ( ). P A B P A P B P A B =

Nu A v B l hai bin c xung khc th:
( ) ( ) ( ). P A B P A P B =

Nu h { }
i
A ( 1,..., ) i n = xung khc tng i th:
( )
1 2 1 2
... = ( )+ ( )+...+ ( ).
n n
P A A A P A P A P A
H Cng nghip Tp.HCM
VD 1. Mt nhm c 30 nh u t cc loi, trong c:
13 nh u t vng; 17 nh u t chng khon v 10
nh u t c vng ln chng khon. Mt i tc gp
ngu nhin mt nh u t trong nhm. Tm xc sut
ngi gp c nh u t vng hoc chng khon?
VD 2. Mt hp phn c 10 vin trong c 3 vin mu
. Ly ngu nhin t hp ra 3 vin phn.
Tnh xc sut ly c t nht 1 vin phn mu .
c bit

( ) 1 ( ); ( ) ( . ) ( . ). P A P A P A P AB P AB = =
VD 3. Trong mt vng dn c, t l ngi mc bnh tim
l 9%; mc bnh huyt p l 12%; mc c bnh tim v
huyt p l 7%. Chn ngu nhin 1 ngi trong vng
. Tnh xc sut ngi ny khng mc bnh tim v
khng mc bnh huyt p?
Ch

; . A B A B A B A B = =
3.2. XC SUT C IU KIN
Xt php th: 3 ngi A, B v C thi tuyn vo mt
cng ty. Gi
A: ngi A thi , B: ngi B thi ,
C : ngi C thi , H : c 2 ngi thi .
Khi , khng gian mu l:
{ , , , , , , , } ABC ABC ABC ABC ABC ABC ABC ABC .
Ta c:
4
{ , , , } ( )
8
A ABC ABC ABC ABC P A = = ;

3
{ , , } ( )
8
H ABC ABC ABC P H = = .
Lc ny, bin c: 2 ngi thi trong c A l:
{ , } AH ABC ABC = v
2
( )
8
P AH = .
By gi, ta xt php th l: A, B, C thi tuyn vo mt
cng ty v bit thm thng tin c 2 ngi thi .
Khng gian mu tr thnh H v A tr thnh AH .
Gi A H: A thi bit rng c 2 ngi thi th ta
c:
( )
2 ( )
3 ( )
P AH
P A H
P H
= = .
3.2.1. nh ngha xc sut c iu kin
Trong mt php th, xt hai bin c bt k A v B vi
( ) 0 P B . Xc sut c iu kin ca A vi iu kin B
xy ra c k hiu v nh ngha l:
( )
( )
.
( )
P A B
P A B
P B
=

VD 4. Mt nhm 10 sinh vin gm 3 nam v 7 n trong
c 2 nam 18 tui v 3 n 18 tui. Chn ngu nhin 1
sinh vin t nhm .
Gi A: sinh vin c chn l n,
B: sinh vin c chn l 18 tui.
Hy tnh
( ) ( )
, P A B P B A ?
Nhn xt
Khi tnh
( )
P A B vi iu kin B xy ra, ngha l ta
hn ch khng gian mu xung cn B v hn ch
A xung cn A B .
Tnh cht
1)
( )
0 1 P A B , A ;

2) nu A C th
( ) ( )
P A B P C B ;

3)
( ) ( )
1 P A B P A B = .
H Cng nghip Tp.HCM
3.2.2. Cng thc nhn xc sut
a) S c lp ca hai bin c
Trong mt php th, hai bin c A v B c gi l
c lp nu B c xy ra hay khng cng khng nh
hng n kh nng xy ra A v ngc li.
Ch
Nu A v B c lp vi nhau th cc cp bin c:
A v B, A v B, A v B cng c lp vi nhau.
b) Cng thc nhn
Nu A v B l hai bin c khng c lp th:
( ) ( )
( ) ( ) ( ) . P A B P B P A B P A P B A = =
Nu A v B l hai bin c c lp th:
( ) ( ). ( ). P A B P A P B =

Nu n bin c , 1, ...,
i
A i n = khng c lp th:
( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
1 2 1 2 1 1 1
... ... ... .
n n n
P AA A P A P A A P A A A
=

VD 5. Mt ngi c 5 bng n trong c 2 bng b
hng. Ngi th ngu nhin ln lt tng bng n
(khng hon li) cho n khi chn c 1 bng tt.
Tnh xc sut ngi th n ln th 2.
VD 6. Mt sinh vin hc h nin ch c thi li 1 ln
nu ln thi th nht b rt (2 ln thi c lp). Bit rng
xc sut sinh vin ny thi ln 1 v ln 2 tng
ng l 60% v 80%. Tnh xc sut sinh vin ny thi ?
VD 7. C hai ngi A v B cng t lnh (c lp)
mua c phiu ca mt cng ty vi xc sut mua c
tng ng l 0,8 v 0,7. Bit rng c ngi mua c,
xc sut ngi A mua c c phiu ny l:
A.
19
47
; B.
12
19
; C.
40
47
; D.
10
19
.
VD 8. Trong dp tt, ng A em bn 1 cy mai ln v 1
cy mai nh. Xc sut bn c cy mai ln l 0,9. Nu
bn c cy mai ln th xc sut bn c cy mai
nh l 0,7. Nu cy mai ln khng bn c th xc
sut bn c cy mai nh l 0,2. Bit rng ng A bn
c t nht 1 cy mai, xc sut ng A bn c c
hai cy mai l:
A. 0,6342; B. 0,6848; C. 0,4796; D. 0,8791.
VD 9. Hai ngi A v B cng chi tr chi nh sau:
C hai lun phin ly mi ln 1 vin bi t mt hp ng
2 bi trng v 4 bi en (bi c ly ra khng tr li hp).
Ngi no ly c bi trng trc th thng cuc.
Gi s A ly trc, tnh xc sut A thng cuc ?
3.2.3. Cng thc xc sut y v Bayes.
a) Cng thc xc sut y
VD 10. Mt ca hng bn hai loi bng n cng kch
c gm: 70 bng mu trng vi t l bng hng l 1%
v 30 bng mu vng vi t l hng 2%. Mt khch
hng chn mua ngu nhin 1 bng n t ca hng ny.
Tnh xc sut ngi ny mua c bng n tt ?
Xt h n bin c { }
i
A ( 1, 2,..., i n = ) y v B l
mt bin c bt k trong php th, ta c:

( )
( ) ( )
1
1 1
( ) ( )
( ) ... ( ) .
n
i i
i
n n
P B P A P B A
P A P B A P A P B A
=
=
=

Ch
Trong trc nghim ta dng s gii nhanh nh sau:
Nhnh 1: P(n tt mu trng) = 0,7.0,99.
Nhnh 2: P(n tt mu vng) = 0,3.0,98.
Suy ra:
P(n tt) = tng xc sut ca 2 nhnh = 0,987.
VD 11. Chung th 1 c 3 con th trng v 4 con th
en; chung 2 c 5 th trng v 3 th en. Quan st
thy c 1 con th chy t chung 1 sang chung 2, sau
c 1 con th chy ra t chung 2. Tnh xc sut
con th chy ra t chung 2 l th trng ?
H Cng nghip Tp.HCM
b) Cng thc Bayes
Xt h n bin c { }
i
A ( 1, 2,..., i n = ) y v B l
mt bin c bt k trong php th. Khi , xc sut
bin c
i
A xy ra sau khi B xy ra l:
( )
( )
( )
( )
1
( ) ( )
.
( )
( )
i i i i
i
n
i i
i
P A P B A P A P B A
P A B
P B
P A P B A
=
= =

VD 12. Xt tip VD 10. Gi s khch hng chn mua
c bng n tt. Tnh xc sut ngi ny mua
c bng n mu vng ?
Phn bit cc bi ton p dng cng thc
Nhn y Bayes
Trong 1 bi ton, ta xt 3 bin c
1 2
, , . A A B
1) Nu bi ton yu cu tm xc sut ca
1
, A B
2
A B th y l bi ton cng thc nhn.
Xc sut l xc sut tch ca tng nhnh.
2) Nu bi ton yu cu tm xc sut ca v B
1 2
{ , } A A y th y l bi ton p dng
cng thc y . Xc sut bng tng 2 nhnh.
3) Nu bi ton yu cu tm xc sut ca
1 2
{ , } A A
1 2
, A A
B v cho bit xy ra, ng thi h
y th y l bi ton p dng cng thc
Bayes. Xc sut l t s gia nhnh cn tm
vi tng ca hai nhnh.
VD 13. Nh my X c 3 phn xng A, B, C tng
ng sn xut ra 20%, 30% v 50% tng sn phm ca
nh my. Gi s t l sn phm hng do cc phn xng
A, B, C tng ng sn xut ra l 1%, 2% v 3%.
Chn ngu nhin 1 sn phm do nh my X sn xut ra.
1) Tnh xc sut (t l) sn phm ny l hng ?
2) Tnh xc sut sn phm ny hng v do phn xng
A sn xut ra ?
3) Bit rng sn phm c chn l hng, tnh xc sut
sn phm ny l do phn xng A sn xut ra ?
VD 14. T l t ti, t con v xe my i qua ng X
c trm bm du l 5 : 2 : 13. Xc sut t ti, t
con v xe my i qua ng ny vo bm du ln lt
l 0,1; 0,2 v 0,15. Bit rng c 1 xe i qua ng X
vo bm du, tnh xc sut l t con ?
A.
11
57
; B.
10
57
; C.
8
57
; D.
7
57
.
Chng Chng 2. 2. Bi Bi n n ng ng u u nhin nhin

1. Bin ngu nhin v hm mt
2. Hm phn phi xc sut
3. Tham s c trng ca bin ngu nhin
1. BIN NGU NHIN V HM MT

1.1. Khi nim bin ngu nhin
Xt mt php th vi khng gian mu . Gi s, ng
vi mi bin c s cp , ta lin kt vi 1 s thc
( ) X , th X c gi l mt bin ngu nhin.
Tng qut, bin ngu nhin (BNN) X ca mt php
th vi khng gian mu l mt nh x
: X
( ) X x = .
Gi tr x c gi l mt gi tr ca bin ngu nhin X.
VD 1. Ngi A mua mt loi bo him tai nn trong 1
nm vi ph l 70 ngn ng. Nu b tai nn th cng ty
s chi tr 3 triu ng. Gi X l s tin ngi A c
c sau 1 nm mua bo him ny. Khi , ta c
Nu ( ) X l 1 tp hu hn
1 2
{ , ,..., }
n
x x x hay v hn
m c th X c gi l bin ngu nhin ri rc.
cho gn, ta vit l
1 2
{ , ,..., ,...}
n
X x x x = .
Php th l: mua bo him tai nn.
Bin c l T: ngi A b tai nn.
Khng gian mu l { , } T T = .
Vy ( ) 2, 93 X T = (triu), ( ) 0, 07 X T = (triu).
H Cng nghip Tp.HCM
Ch
Trong thc nghim, cc bin ngu nhin thng l ri
rc. Khi bin ngu nhin ri rc X c cc gi tr
nhiu trn 1 khong ca , th ta xem X l bin ngu
nhin lin tc. Thc cht l, cc bin ngu nhin lin
tc c dng lm xp x cho cc bin ngu nhin ri
rc khi tp gi tr ca bin ngu nhin ri rc ln.
Cho bin ngu nhin X v hm s ( ) y x = .
Khi , bin ngu nhin ( ) Y X = c gi l hm
ca bin ngu nhin X.
Nu ( ) X l 1 khong ca (hay c ) th X c
gi l bin ngu nhin lin tc.
a) Bin ngu nhin ri rc
Cho BNN ri rc : X ,
1 2
{ , , ..., , ...}
n
X x x x = .
Gi s
1 2
... ...
n
x x x < < < < vi xc sut tng ng
l ({ : ( ) }) ( ) , 1, 2, ...
i i i
P X x P X x p i = = = =
Ta nh ngha
1.2. Hm mt
Bng phn phi xc sut ca X l
X
1
x
2
x
n
x
P
1
p
2
p
n
p

Hm mt ca X l
,
( )
0 , .
i i
i
p khi x x
f x
khi x x i
'
1 =
1
=
!
1
1
+

Ch
0
i
p ; 1, 1, 2, ...
i
p i = =

Nu
1 2
{ , ,..., ,...}
n
x x x x th ( ) 0 P X x = = .
( )
i
i
a x b
P a X b p
<
< =

.
VD 2. Cho BNN ri rc X c bng phn phi xc sut:
X
1 0 1 3 5
P
3a a 0,1 2a 0,3
1) Tm a v tnh ( 1 3) P X < .
2) Lp bng phn phi xc sut ca hm
2
Y X = .
VD 3. Mt x th c 4 vin n, bn ln lt tng vin
vo mt mc tiu mt cch c lp. Xc sut trng mc
tiu mi ln bn l 0,8. Bit rng, nu c 1 vin trng
mc tiu hoc ht n th dng. Gi X l s vin n
x th bn, hy lp bng phn phi xc sut ca X?
VD 4. Mt hp c 3 vin phn trng v 2 vin phn .
Mt ngi ly ngu nhin mi ln 1 vin (khng tr li)
t hp ra cho n khi ly c 2 vin phn . Gi
X l s ln ngi ly phn. Hy lp bng phn phi
xc sut v hm mt ca X?
b) Bin ngu nhin lin tc
Hm s : f c gi l hm mt ca bin
ngu nhin lin tc X nu:
( ) ( ) , , .
b
a
P a X b f x dx a b =

Ch . ( ) f x l hm mt ca bin ngu nhin lin tc
X khi v ch khi ( ) 0, f x x v ( ) 1 f x dx
.
Nhn xt
Khi ( ) f x lin tc trn ln cn ca im a, ta c:
( ) ( )
a
a
P a X a f x dx

0
( ) lim ( ) 0
a
a
P X a f x dx
= = =
.
Vy ( ) ( ) P a X b P a X b < = <
( ) ( ) .
b
a
P a X b f x dx = < < =

ngha hnh hc, xc sut
ca bin ngu nhin X
nhn gi tr trong [ ; ] a b
bng din tch hnh thang
cong gii hn bi
, , ( ) x a x b y f x = = = v Ox .
( ) f x
S
( ) ( )
b
a
P a X b f x dx =
H Cng nghip Tp.HCM

VD 5. Chng t
3
4 , [0; 1]
( )
0, [0; 1]
x x
f x
x
'
1

1
1
=
!
1

1
1+
l hm mt
ca bin ngu nhin X v tnh (0, 5 3) P X < ?
VD 6. Cho bin ngu nhin X c hm mt :
2
0, 2
( )
, 2.
x
f x
k
x
x
'
1 <
1
1
1
=
!
1

1
1
1+
Tnh ( 3 5) P X < < ?
2. HM PHN PHI XC SUT
2.1. nh ngha. Hm phn phi xc sut (hay hm
phn phi tch ly) ca BNN X, k hiu ( ) F x , l xc
sut X nhn gi tr nh hn x vi mi x .
Ngha l: ( ) ( ), F x P X x x = < .
Nhn xt 1
Nu bin ngu nhin X l ri rc vi phn phi
xc sut ( )
i i
P X x p = = th: ( )
i
i
x x
F x p
<
=
.
Nu bin ngu nhin X l lin tc vi hm mt
( ) f x th: ( ) ( )
x
F x f t dt
.
Nhn xt 2

Gi s BNN ri rc X nhn cc gi tr trong
1
[ ; ]
n
x x v
1 2
...
n
x x x < < < , ( ) ( 1, 2,..., )
i i
P X x p i n = = = .

Ta c hm phn phi ca X l:
1
1 1 2
1 2 2 3
1 2 1 1
0 khi
khi
khi
( )
.........................................................
... khi
n n
x x
p x x x
p p x x x
F x
p p p x

<
<
=

1 khi .
n
n
x x
x x
'
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
!
1
1
1
1
<
1
1
1
<
1
1+

Chng minh
Vi
1
x x :

1
( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) 0 F x P X x P X x P = < = < = = .
Vi
1 2
x x x < :
2 1 1
( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) F x P X x P X x P X x p = < = < = = = .
Vi
2 3
x x x < :

3
( ) ( ) ( ) F x P X x P X x = < = <

1 2 1 2
( ) ( ) P X x P X x p p = = = = .
Vi
n
x x :
( ) ( ) ( )
n
F x P X x P X x = =

1 2
( ) ( ) ... ( )
n
P X x P X x P X x = = = =

1 2
... 1
n
p p p = = .
Gi s BNN lin tc X c hm mt
( ), [ ; ]
( )
0, [ ; ].
x x a b
f x
x a b
'
1
1
=
!
1
1
+

Quy c. Nu BNN X lin tc th min xc nh ca
( ) F x c ly theo hm mt ( ) f x .
0 khi
( ) ( ) khi
1 khi .
x
a
x a
F x t dt a x b
b x
'
1 <
1
1
1
1
1
=
!
1
1
1
1
<
1
1+

0,
( )
( ), .
x a
f x
x x a
'
1 <
1
=
!
1
1
+

0 khi
( )
( ) khi .
x
a
x a
F x
t dt x a
'
1 <
1
1
1
=
!
1

1
1
1
+

H Cng nghip Tp.HCM
( ),
( )
0, .
x x a
f x
x a
'
1
1
=
!
1
1
+


( ) khi
( )
1 khi .
x
t dt x a
F x
x a
'
1
1
1

1
1
=
!
1
1
1

1
1+

th ca ( ) F x :
x
O
( ) F x
2
1 3 4
0,1
0, 3
0, 5
1

VD 1. Cho BNN X c bng phn phi xc sut l:
X 2 1 3 4
P
0,1 0, 2 0, 2 0, 5
Hy lp hm phn phi ca X v v th ca ( ) F x ?
VD 2. Cho BNN X c hm mt l:
2
0, [0; 1]
( )
3 , [0; 1].
x
f x
x x
'
1
1
1
=
!
1
1
1+

Tm hm phn phi ca X v v th ca ( ) F x ?
th ca ( ) F x :
2.2. Tnh cht ca hm phn phi xc sut
1) Hm ( ) F x xc nh vi mi x .
2) 0 ( ) 1, F x x ; ( ) 0; ( ) 1 F F = = .
4) ( ) ( ) ( ) P a X b F b F a < = .
VD 3. Cho BNN X c hm mt l:
2
0, 100
( )
100
, 100.
x
f x
x
x
'
1 <
1
1
1
=
!
1

1
1
1+

Tm hm phn phi ( ) F x ca X?
3) ( ) F x khng gim v lin tc tri ti mi x .
c bit, vi X lin tc th ( ) F x lin tc x .
c bit

Nu X l BNN ri rc th:
1
( ) ( ), .
i i i
p F x F x i
=

Nu X l BNN lin tc th:
( ) ( ) ( )
( ) ( ) ( ).
P a X b P a X b P a X b
P a X b F b F a
= < = <
= < < =

Nu X l BNN lin tc c hm mt ( ) f x th:
( ) ( ). F x f x =

VD 4. Tnh xc sut ( 400) P X trong VD 3?
VD 5. Cho BNN X c hm mt
2
3
, [ 1; 3]
( )
28
0, [ 1; 3].
x x
f x
x
'
1
1

1
=
!
1
1
1
+

Hm phn phi xc sut ca X l:
A.
3
0, 1
( ) , 1 3
28
1, 3 .
x
x
F x x
x
'
1 <
1
1
1
1
1
=
!
1
1
1
<
1
1
1+
B.
3
0, 1
( ) , 1 3
28
1, 3 .
x
x
F x x
x
'
1 <
1
1
1
1
1
= <
!
1
1
1

1
1
1+

H Cng nghip Tp.HCM
C.
3
0, 1
1
( ) , 1 3
28 28
1, 3 .
x
x
F x x
x
'
1 <
1
1
1
1
1
= !
1
1
1
<
1
1
1+
D.
3
0, 1
1
( ) + , 1 3
28 28
1, 3 .
x
x
F x x
x
'
1 <
1
1
1
1
1
= !
1
1
1
<
1
1
1+

VD 6. Cho BNN X c hm phn phi xc sut:
3
0, 2
( ) 2 , ( 2; 3]
1, 3.
x
F x ax b x
x
'
1
1
1
1
=
!
1
1
1
1
+
.
1) Tm cc hng s a v b?
2) Tnh
( )
2 5 P Y < vi
2
1 Y X = .
3. THAM S C TRNG
CA BIN NGU NHIN
Nhng thng tin c ng phn nh tng phn v bin
ngu nhin gip ta so snh gia cc i lng vi nhau
c gi l cc c trng s.

C 3 loi c trng s l

Cc c trng s cho xu hng trung tm ca BNN:
Trung v, Mode, K vng,

Cc c trng s cho phn tn ca BNN:
Phng sai, lch chun,

Cc c trng s cho dng phn phi xc sut.

0
( ) max P X x = nu X l ri rc, v

0
( ) max f x nu X lin tc c hm mt ( ) f x .
Ch
ModX cn c gi l gi tr tin chc nht ca X.
Bin ngu nhin X c th c nhiu ModX.
Mode ca bin ngu nhin X, k hiu ModX, l gi tr
0
x X tha:
3.1. MODE
VD 3. Tm ModX, bit X c hm mt xc sut:
2
3
(4 ), [0; 4]
( )
64
0, [0; 4].
x x x
f x
x
'
1
1

1
=
!
1
1
1
+

VD 1. Cho BNN X c bng phn phi xc sut:

X
0 1 2 4 5 8
P
0,10 0,20 0,30 0,05 0,25 0,10
Ta c: Mod 2 X = .

VD 2. Tm ModX, bit X c bng phn phi xc sut:

X
1 2 4 5 8
P
1 3p 0,18 0,07 0,25 p

3.2. K VNG

3.2.1. nh ngha
K vng (Expectation) ca bin ngu nhin X, k hiu
EX hay ( ) M X , l mt s thc c xc nh nh sau:

Nu X l ri rc vi xc sut ( )
i i
P X x p = = th:
.
i i
i
EX x p =

Nu X l lin tc c hm mt ( ) f x th:
. ( ) . EX x f x dx

c bit
Nu bin ngu nhin ri rc
1 2
{ ; ;...; }
n
X x x x = vi
xc sut tng ng l
1 2
, ,...,
n
p p p th:
1 1 2 2
... .
n n
EX x p x p x p =
VD 5. Mt l hng gm 10 sn phm tt v 2 ph phm.
Ly ngu nhin 4 sn phm t l hng , gi X l s
sn phm tt trong 4 sn phm ly ra.
Tm phn phi xc sut v tnh k vng ca X?
X
1 0 2 3
P
0,1 0,2 0,4 0,3
Tnh k vng ca X?
H Cng nghip Tp.HCM
VD 6. Tm k vng ca BNN X c hm mt :
2
3
( 2 ), [0; 1]
( )
4
0, [0; 1].
x x x
f x
x
'
1
1

1
=
!
1
1
1
+

Ch
Nu X l BNN lin tc trn [ ; ] a b th [ ; ] EX a b .
Nu
1
{ ,..., }
n
X x x = th:
1 1
[min{ ,..., }; max{ ,..., }]
n n
EX x x x x .
X
1 2 4 5 7
P
a 0,2 b 0,2 0,1
Tm gi tr ca tham s a v b 3, 5 EX = ?
VD 8. Cho bin ngu nhin X c hm mt :
2
, [0; 1]
( )
0, [0; 1].
ax bx x
f x
x
'
1

1
1
=
!
1

1
1+

Cho bit 0, 6 EX = . Hy tnh ( 0, 5) P X < ?
3.2.2. Tnh cht ca K vng

1) , EC C C = .
2) ( ) . , E CX C EX C = .
3) ( ) E X Y EX EY = .

4) ( . ) . E XY EX EY = nu , X Y c lp.
K vng ca bin ngu nhin X l gi tr trung bnh
(tnh theo xc sut) m X nhn c, n phn nh gi
tr trung tm phn phi xc sut ca X.
Trong thc t sn xut hay kinh doanh, khi cn chn
phng n cho nng sut hay li nhun cao, ngi ta
thng chn phng n sao cho k vng nng sut
hay k vng li nhun cao.
3.2.3. ngha ca K vng
VD 9. Mt thng k cho bit t l tai nn xe my
thnh ph H l 0,001. Cng ty bo him A ngh bn
loi bo him tai nn xe my cho ng B thnh ph H
trong 1 nm vi s tin chi tr l 10 (triu ng), ph
bo him l 0,1 (triu ng). Hi trung bnh cng ty A
li bao nhiu khi bn bo him cho ng B?
VD 10. ng A tham gia mt tr chi , en nh sau:
Trong mt hp c 4 bi v 6 bi en. Mi ln ng A
ly ra 1 bi: nu l th c thng 100 (ngn ng),
nu l en th b mt 70 (ngn ng). Hi trung bnh
mi ln ly bi ng A nhn c bao nhiu tin?
VD 11. Ngi th chp tranh mi tun chp hai bc
tranh c lp A v B vi xc sut hng tng ng l
0,03 v 0,05. Nu thnh cng th ngi th s kim li
t bc tranh A l 1,3 triu ng v B l 0,9 triu ng,
nhng nu hng th b l do bc tranh A l 0,8 triu
ng v do B l 0,6 triu ng. Hi trung bnh ngi
th nhn c bao nhiu tin chp tranh mi tun?
A. 2,185 triu ng; B. 2,148 triu ng.
C. 2,116 triu ng; D. 2,062 triu ng.
VD 12. Mt d n xy dng c vin C thit k cho
c 2 bn A v B xt duyt mt cch c lp. Xc sut
(kh nng) A v B chp nhn d n ny khi xt
duyt thit k l 70% v 80%. Nu chp nhn d n th
bn A phi tr cho C l 400 triu ng, cn ngc li
th phi tr 100 triu ng. Nu chp nhn d n th bn
B phi tr cho C l 1 t ng, cn ngc li th phi tr
300 triu ng. Bit chi ph cho thit k ca C l 1 t
ng v 10% thu doanh thu. Hi trung bnh vin C c
li bao nhiu khi nhn thit k trn?
Hng dn. Gi X (triu ng) l tin li ( tr thu)
ca C . Tnh tng t VD 11, ta c 53 EX = .
* Thu doanh thu l mt loi thu c, theo ngha c thu
l phi ng thu (cho d doanh nghip b l).
Gi s ( ) Y X = l hm ca bin ngu nhin X.
Ch
Khi bin ngu nhin X l ri rc th ta nn lp bng
phn phi xc sut ca Y , ri tnh EY .
Nu X l bin ngu nhin ri rc th:
. ( ).
i i i i
i i
EY y p x p = =

Nu X l bin ngu nhin lin tc th:
. ( ) ( ). ( ) EY y f x dx x f x dx

= =

3.2.4. K vng ca hm ca bin ngu nhin
H Cng nghip Tp.HCM
X
1 0 1 2
P
0,1 0,3 0,35 0,25
Tnh EY vi
2
3 Y X = ?
VD 14. Cho BNN X c hm mt xc sut:
2
2
, [1; 2]
( )
0, [1; 2].
x
f x
x
x
'
1
1

1
1
=
!
1
1

1
1+

Tnh EY vi
5
2
Y X
X
= ?
3.3. PHNG SAI
3.3.1. nh ngha
Phng sai (Variance hay Dispersion) ca bin ngu
nhin X, k hiu VarX hay ( ) D X , l mt s thc
khng m c xc nh bi:

2 2 2
( ) ( ) ( ) . VarX E X EX E X EX = =

Nu BNN X l ri rc v ( )
i i
P X x p = = th:
2
2
. . .
i i i i
i i
VarX x p x p
1

=

( )

Nu BNN X l lin tc v c hm mt ( ) f x th:
2
2
. ( ) . ( ) . VarX x f x dx x f x dx

1

( )


X
1 2 3
P
0,2 0,7 0,1
Ta c:

2 2 2
(1 .0, 2 2 .0, 7 3 .0,1) VarX =

2
(1.0, 2 2.0, 7 3.0,1) 0, 29 = .
VD 16. Tnh phng sai ca X, bit hm mt :
2
3
( 2 ), [0; 1]
( )
4
0, [0; 1].
x x x
f x
x
'
1
1

1
=
!
1
1
1
+

VD 17. Cho BNN X c hm mt xc sut:
2
3
(1 ), 1
( )
4
0, 1.
x x
f x
x
'
1
1

1
=
!
1
1
1
+

Tnh phng sai ca Y , cho bit
2
2 Y X = .
3.3.2. Tnh cht ca Phng sai
1) 0, VarC C = ;
2)
2
( ) . Var CX C VarX = ;
3) ( ) Var X Y VarX VarY = nu X v Y c lp.
3.3.3. ngha ca Phng sai

2
( ) X EX l bnh phng sai bit gia gi tr ca X
so vi trung bnh ca n. V phng sai l trung bnh
ca sai bit ny, nn phng sai cho ta hnh nh v s
phn tn ca cc s liu: phng sai cng nh th s
liu cng tp trung xung quanh trung bnh ca chng.
Trong k thut, phng sai c trng cho sai s ca
thit b. Trong kinh doanh, phng sai c trng cho
ri ro u t.
VD 18. Nng sut (sn phm/pht) ca hai my tng
ng l cc BNN X v Y , c bng phn phi xc sut:
X
1 2 3 4
Y
2 3 4 5
P
0,3 0,1 0,5 0,1

P
0,1 0,4 0,4 0,1
T bng phn phi xc sut, ta tnh c:
2, 4 EX = ; 1, 04 VarX = ; 3, 5 EY = ; 0, 65 VarY = .
V , EX EY VarX VarY < nn nu phi chn mua
mt trong hai loi my ny th ta chn mua my Y .
Do n v o ca VarX bng bnh phng n v o
ca X nn so snh c vi cc c trng khc,
ngi ta a vo khi nim lch tiu chun
(standard deviation) l
. VarX =
H Cng nghip Tp.HCM
Ch
Trong trng hp
EX EY
VarX VarY
'
1 <
1
!
1 <
1
+
hay
EX EY
VarX VarY
'
1
1
!
1
1
+
th ta khng th so snh c. gii quyt vn ny,
trong thc t ngi ta dng t s tng i .100%
(
l trung bnh) so snh s n nh ca cc BNN X v
Y . T s tng i cng nh th n nh cng cao.
VD 19. im thi ht mn XSTK ca lp A v B tng
ng l cc BNN X v Y . Ngi ta tnh c:
6, 25 EX = ; 1, 25 VarX = ; 5, 75 EY = ; 0, 75 VarY = .
Ta c: .100% 17, 89%
x
EX
= ; .100% 15, 06%

y
EY
= .
Vy lp B hc u (n nh) hn lp A.
3.4. Mt s c trng khc (tham kho)
Xt BNN X c k vng, phng sai l v
2
.
a) H s i xng ca X
3
1 3
( )
( ) .
E X
X

=

Khi
1
( ) 0 X = th phn phi ca X l i xng; lch
phi khi
1
( ) 0 X v lch tri khi
1
( ) 0 X < .
b) H s nhn ca X
4
2 4
( )
( ) .
E X
X

=

Khi
2
( ) X cng ln th phn phi ca X cng nhn.
Chng Chng 3. 3. Phn Phn ph ph i i x x c c su su t t thng thng d d ng ng

1. Phn phi Siu bi
2. Phn phi Nh thc
3. Phn phi Poisson
4. Phn phi Chun
1. PHN PHI SIU BI

1.1. nh ngha
Xt tp c N phn t gm
A
N phn t c tnh cht A
v
A
N N phn t c tnh cht A. T tp , ta chn
ra n phn t.
Gi X l s phn t c tnh cht A ln trong n phn t
chn th X c phn phi Siu bi (Hypergeometric
distribution) vi 3 tham s N ,
A
N , n.
K hiu l: ( , , )
A
X H N N n hay ( , , ).
A
X H N N n
VD 1. Mt hp phn gm 10 vin, trong c 6 vin
mu trng. Ly ngu nhin 3 vin phn t hp ny. Gi
X l s vin phn trng ly c. Lp bng phn phi
xc sut ca X?
Xc sut trong n phn t chn ra c k phn t A l:

( ) .
A A
k n k
N N N
k
n
N
C C
p P X k
C
= = =
Trong :
0 k n v ( )
A A
n N N k N .
Vy ta c bng phn phi xc sut ca X:
X
0 1 2 3

P
0 3
6 4
3
10
C C
C

1 2
6 4
3
10
C C
C

2 1
6 4
3
10
C C
C

3 0
6 4
3
10
C C
C

VD 2. Mt ca hng bn 10 bng n, trong c 3
bng hng. Mt ngi chn mua ngu nhin 5 bng
n t ca hng ny. Gi X l s bng n tt ngi
mua c. Tnh xc sut ngi mua c 3 hoc 4
bng n tt?
Gii. Ta c: {0; 1; 2; 3} X = v
10, 6, 3 (10, 6, 3)
A
N N n X H = = = .
VD 3. Ti mt cng trnh c 100 ngi ang lm vic,
trong c 70 k s. Chn ngu nhin 40 ngi t
cng trnh ny. Gi X l s k s chn c.
1) Tnh xc sut chn c t 27 n 29 k s ?
2) Tnh trung bnh s k s chn c v VarX?
1.2. Cc s c trng ca X ~ H(N, N
A
, n)

; .
1
N n
EX np VarX npq
N
= =

Trong :
, 1 .
A
N
p q p
N
= =
H Cng nghip Tp.HCM

2. PHN PHI NH THC
2.1. Phn phi Bernoulli
a) nh ngha
Php th Bernoulli l mt php th m ta ch quan tm
n 2 bin c A v A, vi ( ) P A p = .
Xt bin ngu nhin:
1
( ) 1
0
A
X P A p q
A
'
1
1
= = =
!
1
1
+
khi xuat hien,
khi xuat hien,
.
Khi , ta ni X c phn phi Bernoulli vi tham s p.
K hiu l ( ) X B p hay ( ) X B p .
Bng phn phi xc sut ca X l:
X
0 1
P
q p

VD 1. Mt cu hi trc nghim c 4 phng n tr li,
trong ch c 1 phng n ng. Mt sinh vin chn
ngu nhin 1 phng n tr li cu hi .
Gi A: sinh vin ny tr li ng.
b) Cc s c trng ca X ~ B(p)

; . EX p VarX pq = =
Khi , vic tr li cu hi ca sinh vin ny l mt
php th Bernoulli v ( ) 0, 25 p P A = = , 0, 75 q = .
Gi BNN
1
0
X
'
1
1
=
!
1
1
+
khi sinh vien nay tra li ung,
khi sinh vien nay tra li sai,

th (0, 25) X B v 0, 25, 0,1875 EX VarX = = .
2.2. Phn phi Nh thc
a) nh ngha
Xt dy n php th Bernoulli c lp. Vi php th
th i , ta xt bin ngu nhin ( )
i
X B p ( 1,..., ) i n = .
Ngha l:
1
0
i
A
X
A
'
1
1
=
!
1
1
+
khi lan th i xuat hien,
khi lan th i xuat hien.

Gi X l s ln bin c A xut hin trong n php th.
Khi ,
1
...
n
X X X = v ta ni X c phn phi
Nh thc (Binomial distribution) vi tham s n, p.
K hiu l ( , ) X B n p hay ( , ) X B n p .
Xc sut trong n ln th c k ln A xut hin l:

( ) ( 0,1,..., ).
k k n k
k n
p P X k C p q k n
= = = =
VD 2. Mt thi XSTK gm 20 cu hi trc nghim
nh trong VD 1. Sinh vin B lm bi mt cch ngu
nhin. Bit rng, nu tr li ng 1 cu th sinh vin B
c 0,5 im v nu tr li sai 1 cu th b tr 0,125
im. Tnh xc sut sinh vin B t im 5 ?
b) Cc s c trng ca X ~ B(n, p)

0 0
; ;
: 1.
EX np VarX npq
ModX x np q x np q
= =
=

VD 3. ng B trng 100 cy bch n vi xc sut cy
cht l 0,02. Gi X l s cy bch n cht.
1) Tnh xc sut c t 3 n 5 cy bch n cht ?
2) Tnh trung bnh s cy bch n cht v VarX?
3) Hi ng B cn phi trng ti thiu my cy bch n
xc sut c t nht 1 cy cht ln hn 10% ?
VD 4. Mt nh vn trng 126 cy lan qu, xc sut n
hoa ca mi cy trong 1 nm l 0,67.
1) Gi bn 1 cy lan qu n hoa l 2 triu ng. Gi s
nh vn bn ht nhng cy lan n hoa th mi nm
nh vn thu c chc chn nht l bao nhiu tin?
2) Nu mun trung bnh mi nm c nhiu hn 100 cy
lan qu n hoa th nh vn phi trng ti thiu my
cy lan qu ?
VD 5. Mt nh tuyn dng kim tra kin thc ln lt
cc ng vin, xc sut c chn ca mi ng vin u
bng 0,56. Bit xc sut nh tuyn dng chn ng 8
ng vin l 0,0843. S ngi cn phi kim tra l:
A. 9 ngi; B. 10 ngi;
C. 12 ngi; D. 13 ngi.
VD 6. Mt l hng cha 20 sn phm trong c 4 ph
phm. Chn lin tip 3 ln (c hon li) t l hng, mi
ln chn ra 4 sn phm. Tnh xc sut trong 3 ln
chn c ng 1 ln chn phi 2 ph phm.
H Cng nghip Tp.HCM

3. PHN PHI POISSON
3.1. Bi ton dn n phn phi Poisson
Gi s cc v tai nn giao thng vng A xy ra mt
cch ngu nhin, c lp vi nhau v trung bnh 1
ngy c v tai nn. Gi X l s v tai nn giao
thng xy ra trong 1 ngy vng A.
Chia 24 gi trong ngy thnh n khong thi gian sao
cho ta c th coi rng trong mi khong thi gian
c nhiu nht 1 v tai nn xy ra, v kh nng xy ra
tai nn giao thng trong mi khong thi gian bng
n
.
Khi , , X B n
n
1

( )
.
Ta c: ( ) 1
k n k
k
n
P X k C
n n

1 1

= =

( ) ( )

( )
! 1
. . . 1
( ) . ! !
n
k
k k k
n
n n n n k n k

1

=

( )

( 1)...( 1)
. . 1 .
! ( )
n
k
k
n n n k
k n n

1

=

( )

Suy ra:
( ) . .
!
k
n
P X k e
k

=
3.2. nh ngha phn phi Poisson
Nhn xt
Phn phi Poisson khng phi l phn phi xc sut
chnh xc. Tuy vy, phn phi Poisson rt thun tin
cho vic m t v tnh ton.
Phn phi Poisson thng gn vi yu t thi gian.
Bin ngu nhin X c gi l c phn phi Poisson
tham s 0 , k hiu l ( ) X P hay ( ) X P ,
nu X nhn cc gi tr 0, 1, 2,, n, vi xc sut:
.
( ) ( 0,1,..., ,...).
!
k
k
e
p P X k k n
k
= = = =
Trong , l trung bnh s ln xut hin bin c no
m ta quan tm.
VD 1. Quan st ti siu th A thy trung bnh 5 pht c
18 khch n mua hng.
1) Tnh xc sut trong 7 pht c 25 khch n siu
th A ?
2) Tnh xc sut trong 2 pht c t 3 n 5 khch n
siu th A ?
3) Tnh s khch chc chn nht s n siu th A trong
1 gi ?
3.3. Cc s c trng ca X ~ P()

0 0
; : 1 . EX VarX ModX x x = = =
VD 2. Quan st thy trung bnh 1 pht c 3 t i qua
trm thu ph. Bit xc sut c t nht 1 t i qua trm
thu ph trong t pht bng 0,9. Gi tr ca t l:
A. 0,9082 pht; B. 0,8591 pht;
C. 0,8514 pht; D. 0,7675 pht.
VD 3. Quan st thy trung bnh 1 ngy (24 gi) c 12
chuyn tu vo cng A. Chn ngu nhin lin tip 6 gi
trong 1 ngy. Tnh xc sut 2 trong 6 gi y, mi gi
c ng 1 tu vo cng A.

4. PHN PHI CHUN
4.1. Phn phi Chun n gin
a) nh ngha
Bin ngu nhin lin tc T c gi l c phn phi
Chun n gin (hay phn phi Gauss), k hiu l
(0; 1) T N hay (0; 1) T N , nu hm mt xc
sut ca T c dng:

2

2
1
( ) , .
2
t
f t e t

(Gi tr hm ( ) f t c cho trong bng ph lc A).
H Cng nghip Tp.HCM
c) Xc sut ca T ~ N(0; 1)
Hm Laplace
Hm
0
( ) ( ) ( 0)
x
x f t dt t =
c gi l hm Laplace.
(Gi tr hm ( ) x c cho trong bng ph lc B).
b) Cc s c trng ca T ~ N(0; 1)

0; a 1. ModT ET V rT = = =
Ch
( ) 0, 5 ( ) P T b b < = ; ( ) 0, 5 ( ) P T a a = .
Nu 4 x th ( ) 0, 5 x .
Cng thc tnh xc sut
( ) ( ) ( ) ( ).
b
a
P a T b f t dt b a = =

Tnh cht ca hm Laplace
Hm ( ) x ng bin trn ;
( ) ( ) x x = (hm ( ) x l);
( ) 0, 5 = ; ( ) 0, 5 = .
4.2. Phn phi Chun
a) nh ngha
Bin ngu nhin lin tc X c gi l c phn phi
Chun (Normal distribution) tham s v
2
( 0) ,
k hiu l
2
( ; ) X N hay
2
( ; ) X N , nu hm
mt xc sut ca X c dng:
2
2
( )

2
1
( ) , .
2
x
f x e x
=

b) Cc s c trng ca X ~ N(,
2
)

2
; a . ModX EX V rX = = =
c) Xc sut ca X ~ N(,
2
)
Nu
2
( ; ) X N th (0; 1)
X
T N
.
Vy, ta c cng thc tnh xc sut:
( ) .
b a
P a X b
1 1

=

( ) ( )

VD 1. Tc chuyn d liu t my ch ca k tc x
n my tnh ca sinh vin vo bui sng ch nht c
phn phi chun vi trung bnh 60Kbits/s v lch
chun 4Kbits/s. Xc sut tc chuyn d liu ln
hn 63Kbits/s l:
A. 0,2266; B. 0,2144; C. 0,1313; D. 0,1060.
VD 2. Mt k thi u vo trng chuyn A quy nh
im l tng s im cc mn thi khng c thp
hn 15 im. Gi s tng im cc mn thi ca hc
sinh l bin ngu nhin c phn phi chun vi trung
bnh 12 im. Bit rng t l hc sinh thi l 25,14%.
lch chun l:
A. 4 im; B. 4,5 im; C. 5 im; D. 5,5 im.
VD 3. Gi s thi gian khch phi ch c phc v
ti mt ca hng l BNN X (pht), (4, 5; 1,21) X N .
1) Tnh xc sut khch phi ch t 3,5 pht n 5 pht.
2) Tnh thi gian ti thiu t nu xc sut khch phi ch
vt qu t l khng qu 5%.
VD 4. Cho BNN X c phn phi chun vi 10 EX =
v (10 20) 0, 3 P X < < = . Tnh (0 15) P X < ?
VD 5. Tui th ca 1 loi my lnh A l BNN X (nm)
c phn phi (10; 6, 25) N . Khi bn 1 my lnh A th li
c 1,4 triu ng nhng nu my lnh phi bo hnh
th l 1,8 triu ng. Vy c tin li trung bnh khi
bn mi my lnh loi ny l 0,9 triu ng th cn phi
quy nh thi gian bo hnh l bao nhiu ?
H Cng nghip Tp.HCM
Phn phi Chi bnh phng
2
(n) (tham kho)
Nu (0; 1) ( 1,..., )
i
X N i n = v cc
i
X c lp th

2 2
1
( )
n
i
i
X X n
=
=
vi hm mt xc sut:
1
2 2
2
0, 0
1
( ) . , 0.
2 .
2
x n
n
x
f x e x x
n

'
1
1
1
1
1
1
=
!
1
1
1
1

1

1
( )
1+
Trong :
1
0
( )
x n
n e x dx
, ( 1) ( ) n n n = ,
1
, (1) 1.
2
1

= =

( )
Phn phi Student St(n) (tham kho)
Nu (0; 1) T N v
2
( ) Y n c lp th
( )
n
X T St n
Y
= vi hm mt xc sut:
1
2
2
1
2
( ) 1 ,
.
2
n
n
x
f x x
n n
n
1

( )

=
1

( )

( )
.
Trong , n c gi l bc t do v gi tr ca ( ) St n
c cho trong bng C .
Chng Chng 4. Vector 4. Vector ng ng u u nhin nhin

1. Phn phi xc sut ca vector ngu nhin ri rc
2. Phn phi xc sut ca vector ngu nhin lin tc
Khi nim vector ngu nhin

Mt b c th t n bin ngu nhin
1
( , , )
n
X X c
gi l mt vector ngu nhin n chiu.
Vector ngu nhin n chiu l lin tc hay ri rc nu
cc bin ngu nhin thnh phn l lin tc hay ri rc.
Chng hn, mt nh my sn xut mt loi sn phm,
nu xt n kch thc ca sn phm c o bng
chiu di X v chiu rng Y th ta c vector ngu
nhin hai chiu ( , ) X Y . Cn nu xt thm c chiu cao
Z na th ta c vector ngu nhin ba chiu ( , , ) X Y Z .
Trong khun kh ca chng trnh ta ch xt vector
ngu nhin hai chiu, thng c k hiu l ( , ) X Y .
1. PHN PHI XC SUT
CA VECTOR NGU NHIN RI RC
1.1 Bng phn phi xc sut ng thi ca (X, Y)
Y
X
1
y
2
y
j
y

n
y Tng dng
1
x
11
p
12
p
1j
p

1n
p
1
p
2
x
21
p
22
p
2 j
p

2n
p
2
p

i
x
1 i
p
2 i
p
ij
p

in
p
i
p

m
x
1 m
p
2 m
p
mj
p

mn
p
m
p
Tng ct
1
p
2
p
j
p

n
p 1

Trong
( )
;
i j ij
P X x Y y p = = = v
1 1
1
m n
ij
i j
p
= =
=
.
1.2. Phn phi xc sut thnh phn (phn phi l)
T bng phn phi xc sut ng thi ca ( , ) X Y ta c:
Bng phn phi xc sut ca X
X
1
x
2
x

m
x
P
1
p
2
p

m
p
Trong
1 2 i i i in
p p p p =
(tng dng i ca bng phn phi xc sut ng thi).
K vng ca X l:
1 1 2 2
.
m m
EX x p x p x p =
Bng phn phi xc sut ca Y
Y
1
y
2
y

n
y
P
1
p
2
p

n
p
Trong
1 2 j j j mj
p p p p =
(tng ct j ca bng phn phi xc sut ng thi).
K vng ca Y l:
1 1 2 2
.
n n
EY y p y p y p =
Y
X
1 2 3
6 0,10 0,05 0,15
7 0,05 0,15 0,10
8 0,10 0,20 0,10

VD 1. Phn phi xc sut
ng thi ca vector
ngu nhin ( , ) X Y
cho bi bng:
H Cng nghip Tp.HCM
Gii
1)
( )
6 0,1 0, 05 0,15 0, 3 P X = = = .
1) Tnh
( )
6 P X = v
( )
7, 2 P X Y .
2) Lp bng phn phi xs thnh phn v tnh EX, EY .

( )
7, 2 {(7, 2)}+ {(7, 3)}+ {(8, 2)}
{(8, 3)} 0,15 0,1 0, 2 0,1 0, 55.
P X Y P P P
P
=
= =

2) Bng phn phi ca X l:
X
6 7 8
P
0,3 0,3 0,4
6.0, 3 7.0, 3 8.0, 4 7,1 EX = = .
Bng phn phi ca Y l:
Y
1 2 3
P
0,25 0,40 0,35
1.0, 25 2.0, 4 3.0, 35 2,1 EY = = .
1.3. Phn phi xc sut c iu kin
T cng thc xc sut c iu kin, ta c:

( )
( = , = )
= = ,
( )
i j ij
i j
j j
P X x Y y p
P X x Y y
P Y y p
= =
=
1, i m = .

( )
( = , = )
= = ,
( )
i j ij
j i
i i
P X x Y y p
P Y y X x
P X x p
= =
=
1, j n = .
Bng phn phi xc sut ca X vi iu kin
j
Y y = :
X
1
x
2
x

m
x
( )
= =
i j
P x Y X y
1
j
j
p
p

2
j
j
p
p

mj
j
p
p

K vng ca X vi iu kin
j
Y y = l:
1 1 2 2
1
( ... ).
j j m mj
j
EX x p x p x p
p
=
Bng phn phi xc sut ca Y vi iu kin
i
X x = :
Y
1
y
2
y

n
y
( )
= =
j i
P Y y X x
1
/
i i
p p
2
/
i i
p p

/
in i
p p

VD 2. Cho bng phn phi xs ng thi ca ( , ) X Y :
Y
X
1 2 3
6 0,10 0,05 0,15
7 0,05 0,15 0,10
8 0,20 0,10 0,10
1) Lp bng phn phi xc sut ca X vi iu kin
2 Y = v tnh k vng ca X.
2) Lp bng phn phi xc sut ca Y vi iu kin
8 X = v tnh k vng ca Y .
K vng ca Y vi iu kin
i
X x = l:
1 1 2 2
1
( ... ).
i i n in
i
EY y p y p y p
p
=
Gii. 1) Ta c:
( )
0, 05 1
6
0, 05 0,15 0,1 6
| 2 X Y P = = =

= .
( )
0,15 1
7
0, 05 0,15 0,1 2
| 2 X Y P = = =

= .
( )
0,1 1
8
0, 05 0,15
|
0 1 3
2
,
Y P X = = =

= .
Bng phn phi xc sut ca X vi iu kin 2 Y = l:
X
6 7 8
( )
| 2 = =
i
P Y X x
1
6

1
2

1
3

1 1 1 43
6. 7. 8.
6 2 3 6
EX = = .
2) Bng phn phi xc sut ca Y vi iu kin 8 X = :
Y
1 2 3
( )
| 8 = =
j
P X Y y 0, 50 0, 25 0, 25
1.0, 5 2.0, 25 3.0, 25 1, 75 EY = = .
VD 3. Cho vector ngu nhin ri rc ( , ) X Y c bng
phn phi xc sut ng thi nh sau:
( , ) X Y (0; 0) (0; 1) (1; 0) (1; 1) (2; 0) (2; 1)
ij
p
1
18

3
18

4
18

3
18

6
18

1
18

H Cng nghip Tp.HCM
Gii. 1) Ta c:
4 1 5
( 1) {(1, 0)}+ {(2,1)} +
18 18 18
P X Y P P = = = = .
1) Tnh xc sut
( )
1 P X Y = .
2) Tnh xc sut ( 0 | 1) P X Y = .
3) Tnh trung bnh ca X v Y .
4) Tnh trung bnh ca Y khi 1 X = .
2) ( 0 | =1) ( =1 | =1) ( =2 | =1) P X Y P X Y P X Y =

{(1,1)} {(2,1)} 4
( 1) ( 1) 7
P P
P Y P Y
= =
= =
.
3) Bng phn phi thnh phn ca X v Y l:
X
0 1 2
Y
0 1
P
4
18

7
18

7
18

P
11
18

7
18

Vy
4 7 7 21
0. 1. 2.
18 18 18 18
EX = = v
7
18
EY = .
4) Bng phn phi xc sut ca Y khi 1 X = l:
Y
0 1
| ( = ) =1
j
X P Y y
4
7

3
7

Vy
3
7
EY = .
VD 4. Chi ph qung co X (triu ng) v doanh thu
Y (triu ng) ca mt cng ty c bng phn phi
xc sut ng thi nh sau:
Y
X
500
(400 600)
700
(600 800)
900
(800 1000)

30 0,10 0, 05 0

50 0,15 0, 20 0, 05

80 0, 05 0, 05 0, 35
Nu doanh thu l 700 triu ng th chi ph qung co
trung bnh l:
A. 60,5 triu ng; B. 48,3333 triu ng;
C. 51,6667 triu ng; D. 76,25 triu ng.
2. PHN PHI XC SUT
CA VECTOR NGU NHIN LIN TC
2.1. Hm mt ng thi ca (X, Y)
Hm hai bin ( , ) 0 f x y xc nh trn
2
c gi l
hm mt ca vector ngu nhin ( , ) X Y nu:
2
( , ) ( , ) 1. f x y dxdy f x y dxdy
= =

Xc sut ca vector ( , ) X Y trn tp
2
D l:
{( , ) } ( , ) .
D
P X Y D f x y dxdy =

2.2. Hm mt thnh phn
Ch
Khi tm hm ( )
X
f x , ta ly tch phn hm ( , ) f x y theo
bin y v iu kin x phi c lp i vi y.
Tm hm ( )
Y
f y , ta lm tng t.
Hm mt ca X l:
( ) ( , ) .
X
f x f x y dy

Hm mt ca Y l:
( ) ( , ) .
Y
f y f x y dx

Trung bnh thnh phn

( ) . ( ) , ( ) . ( ) .
X X Y Y
E f x x f x dx E f y y f y dy

= =

2.3. Hm mt c iu kin
Hm mt c iu kin ca X khi bit Y y = l:
( )
( , )
.
( )
X
Y
f x y
f x y
f y
=
Hm mt c iu kin ca Y khi bit X x = l:
( )
( , )
.
( )
Y
X
f x y
f y x
f x
=
H Cng nghip Tp.HCM
VD 1. Cho hm
2
10 , 0 1,
( , )
0,
x y y x
f x y
'
1

1
1
=
!
1
1
1+
khi
ni kha c.

1) Chng t vector ( , ) X Y c hm mt l ( , ) f x y .
2) Tnh xc sut
1
2
P Y X
1

( )
.
3) Tm hm mt thnh phn ca X, Y .

4) Tm hm mt c iu kin ( | )
X
f x y , ( | )
Y
f y x .
5) Tnh xc xut
1
4 8
1
P Y X
1

< =

( )
.
Gii
1) t

2
( , ) : 0 1 D x y y x = .
Chiu D ln Ox , ta c:

0 1, 0 D x y x = .
Suy ra:
( , ) ( , )
D
f x y dxdy f x y dxdy
=

1 1
2 4
0 0 0
5 2 5 1
x
x dx ydy x dx = = =

2) t ( , ) : 0 1,
2
x
D x y y x y
' '
1 1
1 1
=
! !
1 1
1 1 + +
.
Chiu D ln Ox , ta c:
0 1,
2
x
D x y x
' '
1 1
1 1
=
! !
1 1
1 1 + +
.

1
( , )
2
D
P Y X f x y dxdy
1

=

( )

1
2
0
2
3
5 2
4
x
x
x dx ydy = =

.
3) Khi 0 1 x , ta c:

0 1, 0 D x y x = .
Suy ra:
2 4
0
( ) ( , ) 10 5
x
X
f x f x y dy x ydy x
= = =

.
Vy
4
5 , 0 1,
( )
0,
X
f
x x
x
'
1

1
1
=
!
1
1
1+
khi
ni kha c.

Tng t,
3
10
(1 , 0 1,
( )
3
)
0,
Y
y y y
y f
'
1
1

1
=
!
1
1
1
+
khi
ni kha c.

4) Trn min

2
( , ) : 0 1 D x y y x = , ta c:

2
3
( , ) 3
( | )
( )
1
X
Y
f x y x
f x y
f y
y
= =
.

2
( , ) 2
( | )
( )
Y
X
f x y y
f y x
f x
x
= = .
Vy:
2
3
3
, 0 1,
( | )
1
0,
X
x
y x
f x y
y
'
1
1
1
1
=
!

1
1
1
1+
khi
ni khac.


2
2
, ( , ) ,
( | )
0,
Y
y
x y D
f y x
x
'
1
1

1
1
=
!
1
1
1
1+
khi
ni khac.

5) T cu 4, ta c:
1
1 32 , 0 ,
4
4
0,
Y
y y
f y x
'
1
1

1

1
= =
!
1
1
1
)
+
khi
ni khac.

Vy
1
8
0
1 1 1
32
4 4 8
P Y X ydy
1

< = = =

( )

.
H Cng nghip Tp.HCM
VD 2. Cho hm mt ng thi ca vector ( , ) X Y l:
6 , 0 1; 0 1 ,
( , )
0,
x x y x
f x y
'
1 < < < <
1
=
!
1
1
+
khi
ni khac.

1) Tnh trung bnh thnh phn ca , X Y .
2) Tnh xc sut
( )
0, 3 0, 5 X P Y = .
Gii
1) Tnh

( ) , ( )
X Y
E f x E f y .
t {0 1, 0 1 } D x y x = < < < < , ta c:

1
0
( ) ( , ) 6
X
x
f x f x y dy xdy

= =

6 (1 ), 0 1 x x x = < <

1
0
1
( ) ( ) .6 (1 )
2
X X
E f x xf x dx x x x dx
= = =

.
t

0 1, 0 1 D y x y = < < < < , ta c:
1
2
0
( ) 6 3(1 ) , 0 1
y
Y
f y xdx y y
= = < <

1
2
0
1
( ) ( ) .3(1 )
4
Y Y
E f x yf y dy y y dy
= = =

.
2) Trn {0 1, 0 1 } D x y x = < < < < , ta c:

( )
2
( , ) 2
( )
(1 )
Y
X
f x y x
x y f
f y
y
= =

( )
, 0 0, 5
0, 5
0,
8
X
x
f
x
x y
'
1 < <
1
= =
!
1
1
+
khi
ni kha c.

Vy
( )
0,5
0,3
0, 3 0, 5 8 0, 64 P xdx X Y = = =
.
VD 3. Tui th X (nm) v thi gian chi th thao Y
(gi) c hm mt ng thi c cho nh sau:
2
15
(1 ), 0 1,
( , )
4
0,
x y y x
f x y
'
1
1
<
1
=
!
1
1
1
+
khi
ni khac.

Thi gian chi th thao trung bnh l:
A. 0,3125 gi; B. 0,5214 gi;
C. 0,1432 gi; D. 0,4132 gi.
Gii tm tt
1
2 2 2
15 15
(1 ) (1 ) 0 ( ) , 1
4 8
Y
y
f x y x y y d y = = <

1
2 2
0
15
( ) (1 ) . 0, 3125
8
Y
E f y y ydy A
l
= =
l
l

.

Chng Chng 5. 5. nh nh l l gi gi i i h h n n trong trong x x c c su su t t
1. Mt s loi hi t trong xc sut v cc nh l
2. Cc loi xp x phn phi xc sut
1. MT S LOI HI T TRONG XC SUT

V CC NH L
(tham kho)
1.1. Hi t theo xc sut Lut s ln
a) nh ngha
Dy cc bin ngu nhin { }
i
X ( 1,..., ,... i n = ) c gi
l hi t theo xc sut n bin ngu nhin X nu:
( )
, 0 : lim ( ) ( ) 0.
n
n
P X X
=
K hiu: ( ).
P
n
X X n
i
X ( 1,..., ,... i n = ) c gi
l tun theo lut s ln (dng Tchbyshev) nu:
1 1
1 1
0 : lim 1
n n
i i
n
i i
P X EX
n n
= =
1

< =

( )

.
b) nh l (Bt ng thc Tchbyshev)
Nu bin ngu nhin X c EX = v
2
VarX = th:

( )
2
2
0 : P X

( )
2
2
1 P X

<
.
H Cng nghip Tp.HCM
Chng minh
Nu X l bin ngu nhin ri rc, ta c:

2 2
( ) ( )
x
x f x =

2 2
( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
x x
x f x x f x
<
=

2
( ) ( )
x
x f x

( )
2 2
( )
x
f x P X

=
.
Nu X l bin ngu nhin lin tc, ta c:

2 2
( ) ( ) x f x dx

2 2
( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
x x
x f x dx x f x dx
<
=

2
( ) ( )
x
x f x dx

( )
2 2
( )
x
f x dx P X

=
.
Vy
( ) ( )
2
2 2
2
P X P X

ngha ca nh l
Vi mi s 0 cho trc, xc sut X nhn gi tr
trong khong ( ; ) t nht phi bng
2
2
1

.
c) nh l lut s ln Tchbyshev
nh l
Nu dy cc BNN { }
i
X ( 1,..., ,... i n = ) c lp tng i
c
i
EX hu hn v
i
VarX C (hng s) th:
1 1
1 1
0 : lim 0
n n
i i
n
i i
P X EX
n n
= =
1

=

( )

.
H qu
Nu dy cc BNN { }
i
X ( 1,..., ,... i n = ) c lp tng i
c
i
EX = v
2
i
VarX = th
1
1
n
P
i
i
X
n
=
.
ngha ca nh l
Th hin tnh n nh ca trung bnh cc BNN c lp
cng phn phi v c phng sai hu hn.
o mt i lng vt l no , ta o n ln v ly
trung bnh cc kt qu lm gi tr thc ca i lng
cn o.
p dng trong thng k l: da vo mt mu kh nh
kt lun tng th.
1.2. Hi t yu nh l gii hn trung tm
a) nh ngha
i
X ( 1,..., ,... i n = ) c gi
l hi t yu hay hi t theo phn phi n bin ngu
nhin X nu lim ( ) ( ), ( ).
n
n
F x F x x C F
=
Trong , ( ) C F l tp cc im lin tc ca ( ) F x .
K hiu:
d
n
X X hay .
d
n
F F
Ch
Nu
P
n
X X th
d
n
X X .
ngha ca nh l
S dng nh l gii hn trung tm Liapounop
tnh xp x (gn ng) xc sut.
Xc nh cc phn phi xp x gii quyt cc vn
ca l thuyt c lng, kim nh,
b) nh l gii hn trung tm (nh l Liapounop)
Cho dy BNN { }
i
X ( 1,..., ,... i n = ) c lp tng i.
t
1 1
,
n n
i i
i i
Y X EX
= =
= =

,
2
1
n
i
i
VarX
=
=
.
Nu
i
EX ,
i
VarX hu hn,
3
3
1
lim 0
n
i i
n
i
E X EX

th
2
( , ) Y N .

H Cng nghip Tp.HCM
2. CC LOI XP X PHN PHI XC SUT
2.1. Xp x phn phi Siu bi bi Nh thc
Xt BNN X c phn phi Siu bi ( ; ; )
A
H N N n .
Nu p c nh, N v 1
A
N
p q
N
= th:
A A
k n k
N N N
d k k n k
n
n
N
C C
C p q
C

.
ng dng, nu N kh ln v n rt nh so vi N th:
( ; ), .
A
N
X B n p p
N
=
VD 1. Mt vn lan c 10.000 cy sp n hoa, trong
c 1.000 cy hoa mu .
1) Tnh xc sut khi chn ngu nhin 20 cy lan th
c 5 cy c hoa mu .
2) Tnh xc sut khi chn ngu nhin 50 cy lan th
c 10 cy c hoa mu .
3) C th tnh xc sut khi chn ngu nhin 200 cy
lan th c 50 cy hoa mu c khng ?
Ch
Khi c mu n kh nh so vi kch thc N (khong
5%N) ca tng th th vic ly mu c hon li hay
khng hon li l nh nhau.
2.2. Xp x phn phi Nh thc bi Poisson
Xt bin ngu nhin X c phn phi Nh thc ( ; ) B n p .
Khi n , nu 0 p v np th:
.
!
k
d k k n k
n
e
C p q
k

.
Ch
Xp x trn s c hiu qu khi 5 np < hay 5 nq < .
ng dng, t np = .
Nu n ln v p gn bng 0 (hoc gn bng 1) th:
( ). X P
VD 2. Mt l hng tht ng lnh ng gi nhp khu
c cha 0,4% b nhim khun. Tm xc sut khi
chn ngu nhin 1.000 gi tht t l hng ny c:
1) khng qu 2 gi b nhim khun;
Tm tt cc loi xp x ri rc
( , , )
A
X H N N n
A
N
p
N
=
( , ) X B n p
5
5
np
nq
<
<
( ) X P
( )
5% n N <
np =
.
A
N
n
N
=
Sai s rt ln
VD 3. Gii cu 3) trong VD 1.
2) ng 34 gi b nhim khun.
2.3. Xp x phn phi Nh thc bi phn phi Chun
a) nh l gii hn a phng Moivre Laplace
Vi 0,1,..., k n = bt k v
k np
x
npq
= , ta c :

2

2
. ( )
lim 1
1
2
n
x n
npq P X k
e
=
=
.
b) nh l gii hn tch phn Moivre Laplace
Vi mi , a b v a b < , ta c:
2
2
1
lim ( )
2
b np
npq x
n
a np
npq
P a X b e dx

.
c) ng dng xp x
Cho ( ; ) X B n p . Nu n kh ln, 5 np v 5 nq
th
2
( ; ) X N vi
2
, np npq = = .
Khi :
1
( ) . .
k
P X k f
1

= =

( )

(gi tr c cho trong bng A vi ( ) ( ) f x f x = ).
H Cng nghip Tp.HCM
2 1
1 2
( ) .
k k
P k X k
1 1

=

( ) ( )

(gi tr c cho trong bng B vi ( ) ( ) x x = ).
VD 4. Trong mt t thi tuyn cng chc mt thnh
ph c 1.000 ngi d thi vi t l thi t l 80%.
Tnh xc sut :
1) c 172 ngi khng t;
2) c khong 170 n 180 ngi khng t.
Ch . Khi k = , ta s dng cng thc hiu chnh:
( ) ( 0, 5 0, 5). P X k P k X k =
VD 5. Trong 10.000 sn phm trn mt dy chuyn sn
xut c 2.000 sn phm khng c kim tra cht lng.
Tm xc sut trong 400 sn phm sn xut ra:
VD 6. Mt khch sn nhn t ch ca 325 khch hng
cho 300 phng vo ngy 1/1 v theo kinh nghim ca
nhng nm trc cho thy c 10% khch t ch nhng
khng n. Bit mi khch t 1 phng, tnh xc sut:
1) c 300 khch n vo ngy 1/1 v nhn phng;
2) tt c khch n vo ngy 1/1 u nhn c phng.
VD 7. Mt ca hng bn c ging c 20.000 con c loi
da trn trong ln 4.000 con c tra. Mt khch
hng chn ngu nhin (1 ln) 1.000 con t 20.000 con
c da trn . Tnh xc sut khch chn c t 182
n 230 con c tra ?
A. 0,8143; B. 0,9133; C. 0,9424; D. 0,9765.
1) c 80 sn phm khng c kim tra;
2) c t 70 n 100 sn phm khng c kim tra.
Tm tt xp x Chun cho Nh thc
( , ) X B n p
np =
2
( , ) X N
5
5
np
nq
'
1
1
!
1
1
+
EX np =
VarX npq =
2
npq =
EX =
2
VarX =
1
( ) ,
k
P X k f

1

= =

( )
( ) .
b a
P a X b

1 1

< < =

( ) ( )
PHN II. L THUYT THNG K
(Statistical theory)
Chng VI. MU THNG K
V C LNG THAM S
1. L thuyt mu
2. c lng im
3. c lng khong
1. L THUYT MU
1.1. Mu v tng th
Tp hp tt c phn t l cc i tng m ta nghin
cu c gi l tng th. S phn t ca tng th c
gi l kch thc ca tng th (thng rt ln).
Chng Chng 6. 6. M M u u th th ng ng k k & & c c l l ng ng tham tham s s
T tng th ta chn ra n phn t th n phn t c
gi l mt mu c kch thc n (c mu).
Mu c chn ngu nhin mt cch khch quan c
gi l mu ngu nhin.
C hai cch ly mu:
Mu c hon li: phn t va quan st xong c
tr li cho tng th trc khi quan st ln sau.
Mu khng hon li: Phn t va quan st xong
khng c tr li cho tng th.
Khi mu c kch thc ln th ta khng phn bit mu
c hon li hay khng hon li.
Mu nh tnh l mu m ta ch quan tm n cc phn
t ca n c tnh cht A no hay khng.
Mu nh lng l mu m ta quan tm n cc yu t
v lng (nh chiu di, cn nng,) ca cc phn t
c trong mu.
Gi
1 2
, ,...,
n
X X X l nhng kt qu quan st. Ta xem
nh quan st n ln, mi ln ta c mt bin ngu
nhin ( 1,..., )
i
X i n = .
Do ta thng ly mu trong tng th c rt nhiu phn
t nn
1 2
, ,...,
n
X X X c xem l c lp v c cng
phn phi xc sut.
H Cng nghip Tp.HCM
1.2. Sp xp mu da vo s liu thc nghim
a) Sp xp theo dng bng
VD 1. Kim tra ngu nhin 50 sinh vin. Ta sp xp
im s X thu c theo th t tng dn v s sinh
vin n c im tng ng vo bng nh sau:
X (im) 2 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
n (s SV) 4 6 20 10 5 2 2 1

b) Sp xp theo dng khong
VD 2. o chiu cao X (cm) ca 100 n = thanh nin.
V chiu cao khc nhau nn tin vic sp xp, ngi
ta chia chiu cao thnh nhiu khong.
Cc thanh nin c chiu cao trong cng 1 khong c
xem l cao nh nhau. Khi , ta c bng s liu dng
khong nh sau:
X
148-152 152-156 156-160 160-164 164-168
n
5 20 35 25 15

Khi cn tnh ton, ngi ta chn s trung bnh ca mi
khong a s liu trn v dng bng:
X
150 154 158 162 166
n
5 20 35 25 15

Ch
i vi trng hp s liu c cho di dng lit k
th ta sp xp li dng bng.
1.3. Cc c trng mu
Xt mt mu ngu nhin
1 2
( , ,..., )
n
X X X , ta c cc c
trng mu nh sau.
a) Trung bnh mu
1
1
.
n
n i
i
X X
n
=
=

n gin, ta dng k hiu
n
X X = .
b) Phng sai mu
Phng sai mu:
( )
2
2 2
1
1

.
n
n i
i
S S X X
n
=
= =

Phng sai mu hiu chnh:
( )
2
2 2
1
1
.
1
n
n i
i
S S X X
n
=
= =

Trong tnh ton c th, ta s dng cng thc:
( )
2
2 2 2
.
1 1
n n
S X X S
n n
l
l
= =
l

l

Vi
2 2
1
1
n
i
i
X X
n
=
=

.
c) T l mu
Xt mu nh tnh vi cc bin
i
X ( 1,..., ) i n = c phn
phi Bernoulli (1; ) B p :
0,
i
X
'
1
1
=
!
1
1
+
neu phan t khong co tnh chat
1, neu phan t co tnh chat
A
A.

Nu mu c m phn t c tnh cht A th t l mu l:
1 2
...
.
n
n
X X X
m
F F
n n

= = =

d) Lin h gia c trng ca mu v tng th
Cc c trng mu X,
2
S , F l cc thng k dng
nghin cu cc c trng
2
, , p tng ng ca tng
th. T lut s ln ta c:
2 2
, , F p X S (theo xc sut).
1.4. Phn phi xc sut ca cc c trng mu
(tham kho)
1.4.1. Phn phi xc sut ca trung bnh mu
a) Trng hp tng th X c phn phi chun
Do
2
, EX VarX
n
= = nn:
( )
2
; 0; 1
X
X N n N
n
1

( )
.
Vi mu c th kch thc n ln, th
2 2
S v:
( )
2
; 0; 1
S X
X N n N
n S
1

( )
.
H Cng nghip Tp.HCM
Khi 30 n < v
2
cha bit th ( 1)
X
n St n
S

(phn phi Student vi 1 n bc t do).
b) Trng hp X khng c phn phi chun
T nh l gii hn trung tm, ta suy ra:
( )
0; 1
X
T N
n
,
( )
0; 1
X
T N
S
n
.
Vi 30 n , ta c cc phn phi xp x chun nh sau:
Nu
2
bit th:
( )
2
; 0; 1
X
X N n N
n
1

( )
.
1.4.2. Phn phi xc sut ca phng sai mu
Gi s mu
1
, ...,
n
X X c
( )
2
; ,
i
X N i .
Khi :
2 2
2
1
( 1)
n
S n
.
1.4.3. Phn phi xc sut ca t l mu F
Gi s (1; ) ( 1,..., )
i
X B p i n = v n kh ln th:
; (0; 1)
(1 )
pq F p
F N p T n N
n
F F
1

=

( )

.
Nu
2
cha bit th:
( )
2
; 0; 1
S X
X N n N
n S
1

( )
.
D D ng ng m m y y t t nh nh b b t t i i t t nh nh c c trng trng m m u u
S DNG MY TNH B TI TNH
CC C TRNG CA MU
1. S liu n (khng c tn s)
VD 1. Cho mu c c mu l 5 n = :
12; 13; 11; 14; 11.

a) My fx 500 570 MS
Xa b nh: SHIFT MODE 3 = =
Vo ch thng k nhp d liu:
MODE 2 (chn SD i vi fx500MS);
MODE MODE 1 (chn SD i vi fx570MS).
Nhp cc s:
12 M+ 13 M+ 11 M+ 14 M+ 11 M+
Xut kt qu:
SHIFT 2 1 =
(kt qu x l trung bnh mu).
SHIFT 2 2 =
(kt qu x n l lch chun ca mu s ).
SHIFT 2 3 =
( 1 x n l lch chun ca mu c hiu chnh s ).
b) My fx 500 570 ES
Xa b nh: SHIFT 9 3 = =
SHIFT MODE dch chuyn mi tn tm chn
mc Stat 2 (ch khng tn s).
MODE 3 (stat) 1 (1-var) (nhp cc s):
12= 13= 11= 14= 11= AC
Xut kt qu:
SHIFT 1 5 (var) 1 = (n: c mu)
SHIFT 1 5 (var) 2 = (x )
SHIFT 1 5 (var) 3 = ( x n s = ).
SHIFT 1 5 (var) 4 = ( 1 x n s = ).
2. S liu c tn s
VD 2. Cho mu c c mu l 9 n = nh sau:
X
12 11 15
n
3 2 4

a) My fx 500 570 MS

Xa b nh: SHIFT MODE 3 = =
MODE 2 (chn SD i vi fx500MS);
MODE MODE 1 (chn SD i vi fx570MS).
Nhp cc s:
12 SHIFT , 3 M+
11 SHIFT , 2 M+
15 SHIFT , 4 M+

Xut kt qu, ta lm nh 1a).
H Cng nghip Tp.HCM
b) My fx 500 570 ES

Xa b nh: SHIFT 9 3 = =
SHIFT MODE (SETUP) dch chuyn mi tn
4 1
MODE 3 (stat) 1 (1-var)
Nhp cc gi tr v tn s vo 2 ct trn mn hnh:
X FREQ
12 3
11 2
15 4 AC

Xut kt qu, lm nh 1b).
VD 3. iu tra nng sut ca 100 ha la trong vng A,
ta c bng s liu sau:
Nng sut
(tn/ha)
3 -
3,5
3,5
- 4
4 -
4,5
4,5
- 5
5 -
5,5
5,5
- 6
6 -
6,5
6,5
- 7
Din tch(ha) 7 12 18 27 20 8 5 3
Nhng tha rung c nng sut t hn 4,4 tn/ha l c
nng sut thp.
Dng my tnh b ti tnh:
1) t l din tch la c nng sut thp;
2) nng sut la trung bnh, phng sai mu cha hiu
chnh v lch chun ca mu c hiu chnh.
Gii
Bng s liu c vit li:
Nng
sut
(tn/ha)

3,25

3,75

4,25

4,75

5,25

5,75

6,25

6,75
Din
tch(ha)

7

12

18

27

20

8

5

3

1)
7 12 18
37%
100
m
f
n

= = = .
2)
2
4, 75; 0, 685; 0, 8318 x s s = = = .

KHI NIM CHUNG V C LNG
c lng l phng on mt gi tr cha bit ca tng
th da vo quan st trn mu ly ra t tng th .
Thng thng, ta cn c lng v trung bnh, t l,
phng sai, h s tng quan ca tng th.
C hai hnh thc c lng:
c lng im: kt qu cn c lng c cho
bi mt tr s.
c lng khong: kt qu cn c lng c cho
bi mt khong.
c lng im c u im l cho ta mt gi tr c
th, c th dng tnh cc kt qu khc, nhng nhc
im l khng cho bit sai s ca c lng.
c lng khong th ngc li.
2. C LNG IM
(tham kho)
Cho mu c lp
1
,...,
n
X X c hm mt ph thuc
vo tham s cn c lng ( c th l trung bnh,
phng sai, t l,). Gi
1
( ,..., )
n
T T X X = l thng k
ch ph thuc vo
1
,...,
n
X X , khng ph thuc vo .
2.1. c lng ng
Ta ni
1
( ,..., )
n
T T X X = l c lng ng (hay c
lng khng chch) ca nu ET = .
Khi ET , ta ni T l c lng khng ng ca :
ET <, ta ni c lng thiu;
ET , ta ni c lng tha.
2.2. So snh cc c lng
a) c lng t phn tn
Gi
1
T ,
2
T l hai c lng ng ca .
Ta ni
1
T t phn tn hn
2
T nu
1 2
( ) ( ) Var T Var T .
Khi
1
T t phn tn hn
2
T , ta ni
1
T tt hn
2
T .
Ngha l, khi dng
1
T c lng ta nhn c sai
s c lng t hn so vi dng
2
T .
b) c lng tt nht
nh ngha
Thng k T c gi l c lng tt nht ca nu
T l c lng ng v t phn tn nht.
H Cng nghip Tp.HCM
VD. Gi s chiu cao X ca ngi Vit Nam c phn
phi chun
2
( ; ) N . Quan st mu
1
,...,
n
X X c
lng chiu cao trung bnh . Xt cc thng k sau:
1 1
T X = ,
1 2
2
2
3
X X
T

= v
1
3
...
n
X X
T
n

= .
nh gi c lng ng:

1 1
( ) ( ) E T E X = = ,

1 2
2
2
1 2
( )
3 3 3
X X
E T E
1

= = =

( )
,
1
3
...
...
( )
n
X X
E T E
n n
1

= = =

( )
.

nh gi phn tn:

2
1 1
( ) ( ) Var T Var X = = ,

2 2 2 1 2
2
2
1 4 5
( )
3 9 9 9
X X
Var T Var
1

= = =

( )
,

2 2 2
1 2
3
2
...
...
( )
X X
Var T Var
n n
n
1

= = =

( )
.
Vy khi n ln th
3
T l c lng tt nht.
Bt ng thc Rao Cramer

Gi s bin ngu nhin X c hm mt ( , ) f x ph
thuc vo tham s .
Gi tin lng Fisher ca X l:
2
( ) ln ( , ) I E f x
1

( )
.
Nu thng k T l c lng ng ca th:
1
. ( )
VarT
n I
.
Vy T tha
1
. ( )
VarT
n I
=
l c lng tt nht.

3. C LNG KHONG
3.1. nh ngha
Xt thng k T c lng tham s , khong
1 2
( ; )
c gi l khong c lng nu vi xc sut 1
cho trc th
1 2
( ) 1 P < < = .
Bi ton i tm khong c lng cho c gi l
bi ton c lng khong.
Xc sut 1 c gi l tin cy ca c lng,

2 1
2 = c gi l di ca khong c lng
v c gi l chnh xc ca c lng.
3.2. c lng khong cho trung bnh tng th
Gi s tng th X c trung bnh cha bit.
Vi tin cy 1 cho trc, ta i tm khong c
lng cho l
1 2
( ; ) tha
1 2
( ) 1 P < < = .
Trong thc hnh, ta c 4 trng hp sau.
a) Trng hp 1. Kch thc mu 30 n v
phng sai tng th
2
bit.
T mu ta tnh x (trung bnh mu).
T
1
1 ( )
2
B
t t

=
tra ba ng
.
Khong c lng l: ( )
; , . . x x t
n
=
t
( )
0
1
( )
2
t
t f t dt
= =
1
2
Tra bng B
H Cng nghip Tp.HCM
b) Trng hp 2. Kch thc mu 30 n v
phng sai tng th
2
cha bit.
Tnh x v s ( lch chun mu hiu chnh).
T
1
1 ( )
2
B
t t

=
tra ba ng
.
Khong c lng l: ( )
; , .
s
x x t
n
=
Ch
Mi lin h gia lch chun mu hiu chnh s v
cha hiu chnh s l:
2 2 2
.
1 1
n n
s s s s
n n
= =

c) Trng hp 3. Kch thc mu 30 n < ,
2
bit v
X c phn phi chun th ta lm nh trng hp 1.

d) Trng hp 4. Kch thc mu 30 n < ,
2
cha bit
v X c phn phi chun.
T mu ta tnh , x s .
T
1
1
C n
t

tra ba ng

(nh gim bc thnh 1 n ri mi tra bng!)
Khong c lng l:
( )
1
; , . .
n
s
x x t
n
=
CC BI TON V C LNG KHONG
Bi 1. c lng khong
Ty theo bi ton thuc trng hp no, ta s dng
trc tip cng thc ca trng hp .
Bi 2. Tm tin cy (ta khng xt TH4)
.
s n
t t
s
n
= =

( ) ( )
1
1 2 .
2
t t
= =

;
n
t t
n
= =

Gii phng trnh:

Hay
Tra bng B, ta suy ra:
Bi 3. Tm c mu (ta ch xt TH1 v TH2)
Ta c nh s (hay ) tm c mu N.
a) Nu > th ta gii bt ng thc:
2
max
. .
s s
t N t N
N

1

<

( )
b) Nu < th ta gii bt ng thc:
2
min
. .
s s
t N t N
N

1

<

( )
VD 1. Lng Vitamin c trong mt tri cy A l bin
ngu nhin X (mg) c lch chun 3,98 mg. Phn
tch 250 tri cy A th thu c lng Vitamin trung
bnh l 20 mg.
VD 2. Bit chiu cao con ngi l bin ngu nhin X
(cm) c phn phi chun ( ; 100) N .
Vi tin cy 95%, nu mun c lng chiu cao
trung bnh ca dn s c sai s khng qu 1 cm th phi
cn o t nht my ngi ?
Vi tin cy 95%, hy c lng lng Vitamin trung
bnh c trong mt tri cy A ?
VD 3. Kim tra tui th (tnh bng gi) ca 50 bng n
do nh my A sn xut ra, ngi ta c bng s liu:
Tui th 3.300 3.500 3.600 4.000
S bng n 10 20 12 8
1) Hy c lng tui th trung bnh ca loi bng n
do nh my A sn xut vi tin cy 97% ?
2) Da vo mu trn c lng tui th trung bnh
ca loi bng n do nh my A sn xut c chnh
xc 59,02 gi th m bo tin cy l bao nhiu ?
3) Da vo mu trn, nu mun c lng tui th
trung bnh ca loi bng n do nh my A sn xut
c chnh xc nh hn 40 gi vi tin cy 98% th
cn phi kim tra ti thiu bao nhiu bng n na ?
VD 4. Chiu cao ca loi cy A l bin ngu nhin c
phn phi chun. Ngi ta o ngu nhin 20 cy A th
thy chiu cao trung bnh 23,12 m v lch chun ca
mu cha hiu chnh l 1,25 m.
Tm khong c lng chiu cao trung bnh ca loi
cy A vi tin cy 95%?
H Cng nghip Tp.HCM
VD 5. nghin cu nhu cu v loi hng X phng
A ngi ta tin hnh kho st 400 trong ton b 4000
gia nh. Kt qu kho st l:
Nhu cu (kg/thng) 0,5 1,5 2,5 3,5
S gia nh 10 35 86 132

Nhu cu (kg/thng) 4,5 5,5 6,5 7,5
S gia nh 78 31 18 10
1) Hy c lng nhu cu trung bnh v loi hng X
ca ton b gia nh phng A trong 1 nm vi
tin cy 95%?
2) Vi mu kho st trn, nu c lng nhu cu trung
bnh v loi hng X ca phng A vi chnh xc
ln hn 4,8 tn/nm v tin cy 99% th cn kho st
ti a bao nhiu gia nh trong phng A ?
VD 6. o ng knh ca 100 trc my do 1 nh my
sn xut th c bng s liu:
ng knh (cm) 9,75 9,80 9,85 9,90
S trc my 5 37 42 16
1) Hy c lng trung bnh ng knh ca trc my
vi tin cy 97% ?
2) Da vo mu trn c lng trung bnh ng
knh ca trc my c chnh xc 0,006cm th m
bo tin cy l bao nhiu ?
3) Da vo mu trn, nu mun c lng trung bnh
ng knh ca trc my c chnh xc ln hn
0,003cm vi tin cy 99% th cn phi o ti a bao
nhiu trc my na ?
VD 7. Tin hnh kho st 420 trong tng s 3.000 gia
nh mt phng th thy c 400 gia nh dng loi
sn phm X do cng ty A sn xut vi bng s liu:
S lng (kg/thng) 0,75 1,25 1,75 2,25 2,75 3,25
S gia nh 40 70 110 90 60 30
Hy c lng trung bnh tng khi lng sn phm X
do cng ty A sn xut c tiu th phng ny
trong mt thng vi tin cy 95%?
A. (5612,7kg; 6012,3kg); B. (5893,3kg; 6312,9kg);
C. (5307,3kg; 5763,9kg); D. (5210,4kg; 5643,5kg).
3.3. c lng khong cho t l tng th p
Gi s t l p cc phn t c tnh cht A ca tng th
cha bit. Vi tin cy 1 cho trc, khong c
lng p l
1 2
( ; ) p p tha
1 2
( ) 1 P p p p < < = .
Trong t
tm c t
1
( )
2
t
= (tra bng B).

Nu bit t l mu
n
m
f f
n
= = vi n l c mu, m l
s phn t ta quan tm th khong c lng cho p l:
( )
(1 )
; , .
f f
f f t
n
=
VD 8. Tnh X c 1.000.000 thanh nin. Ngi ta kho
st ngu nhin 20.000 thanh nin ca tnh X v trnh
hc vn th thy c 12.575 thanh nin tt nghip
PTTH. Hy c lng t l thanh nin tt nghip
PTTH ca tnh X vi tin cy 95%? S thanh nin
tt nghip PTTH ca tnh X trong khong no?
VD 9. c lng s c c trong mt h ngi ta bt
ln 10.000 con, nh du ri th li xung h. Sau mt
thi gian, li bt ln 8.000 con c thy 564 con c nh
du. Vi tin cy 97%, hy c lng t l c c nh
du v s c c trong h ?
VD 10. Ngi ta chn ngu nhin 500 chic tivi trong
mt kho cha TV th thy c 27 TV Sony.
1) Da vo mu trn, c lng t l TV Sony trong
kho c chnh xc l 0, 0177 = th m bo tin
cy ca c lng l bao nhiu?
2) Da vo mu trn, nu mun c chnh xc ca
c lng t l TV Sony nh hn 0,01 vi tin cy
95% th cn chn thm t nht bao nhiu TV na?
VD 11. Ly ngu nhin 200 sn phm trong kho hng A
thy c 21 ph phm.
1) Da vo mu trn, c lng t l ph phm trong
kho A c chnh xc l 0, 035 = th m bo
tin cy ca c lng l bao nhiu?
2) Da vo mu trn, nu mun c chnh xc ca c
lng t l ph phm nh hn 0,01 vi tin cy 93%
th cn kim tra thm t nht bao nhiu sn phm na?
H Cng nghip Tp.HCM
VD 12. Kho st nng sut X (tn/ha) ca 100 ha la
huyn A, ta c bng s liu:
X
3,25 3,75 4,25 4,75 5,25 5,75 6,25 6,75
S (ha) 7 12 18 27 20 8 5 3
Nhng tha rung c nng sut la trn 5,5 tn/ha l
nhng tha rung c nng sut cao. S dng bng kho
st trn, c lng t l din tch la c nng sut
cao huyn A c chnh xc l 8, 54% = th m
bo tin cy l bao nhiu?
A. 92%; B. 94%; C. 96%; D. 98%.
3.4. c lng khong cho phng sai tng th
2
(Tham kho)
Gi s tng th X c phn phi chun vi phng sai
2
cha bit. Vi tin cy 1 cho trc, khong
c lng cho
2
l
2 2
1 2
( ; ) tha:
2 2 2
1 2
( ) 1 P < < = .
Trong thc hnh ta c hai trng hp sau
a) Trng hp 1. Trung bnh tng th bit.
T mu ta tnh
2
. n s .
T 1
2

, tra bng D ta tm c:
2 2
1 ,
2 2
n n
1 1

( ) ( )

.
Khong c lng l
2 2
1 2
( ; ) , trong :
2 2
2 2
1 2
2 2
. .
, .
1
2 2
n n
n s n s
= =
1 1

( ) ( )

b) Trng hp 2. Trung bnh tng th cha bit.
T mu ta tnh
2
, x s .
T
2 2
1 1
1 1 ,
2 2 2
D
n n
1 1

( ) ( )

.
Suy ra:
2 2
2 2 2 2
1 2 1 2
2 2
1 1
( 1) ( 1)
( ; ), , .
1
2 2
n n
n s n s

= =
1 1

( ) ( )

VD 13. Kho st 16 sinh vin v im trung bnh ca

hc k 2 th tnh c 1, 5 s = im. Hy c lng
phng sai v im trung bnh hc k 2 ca sinh vin
vi tin cy 97%, bit rng im trung bnh X ca
sinh vin l bin ngu nhin c phn phi chun.

VD 14. Mc hao ph nguyn liu cho 1 n v sn phm
l bin ngu nhin X (gram) c phn phi chun. Quan
st 28 sn phm ny ngi ta thu c bng s liu:
X (gram) 19,0 19,5 20,0 20,5
S sn phm 5 6 14 3
Vi tin cy 95%, hy c lng phng sai ca mc
hao ph nguyn liu trn trong 2 trng hp:
1) bit 20 EX = gram; b) cha bit EX.
Chng Chng 7. 7. Ki Ki m m nh nh Gi Gi thuy thuy t t Th Th ng ng k k
1. Khi nim v kim nh gi thuyt thng k
2. Kim nh so snh c trng vi mt s
3. Kim nh so snh hai c trng
1. KHI NIM V KIM NH

GI THUYT THNG K
1.1. Khi nim chung
M hnh tng qut ca bi ton kim nh l: ta nu ln
hai mnh tri ngc nhau, mt mnh c gi l
gi thuyt H v mnh cn li c gi l nghch
thuyt (hay i thuyt) H .
Gii quyt mt bi ton kim nh l: bng cch da
vo quan st mu, ta nu ln mt quy tc hnh ng, ta
chp nhn gi thuyt H hay bc b gi thuyt H .
Khi ta chp nhn gi thuyt H , ngha l ta tin rng H
ng; khi bc b H , ngha l ta tin rng H sai. Do ch
da trn mt mu quan st ngu nhin, nn ta khng
th khng nh chc chn iu g cho tng th.
Trong chng ny, ta ch xt loi kim nh tham s
(so snh c trng vi 1 s, so snh hai c trng ca
hai tng th).
1.2. Cc loi sai lm trong kim nh
Khi thc hin kim nh gi thuyt, ta da vo quan
st ngu nhin mt s trng hp ri suy rng ra cho
tng th. S suy rng ny c khi ng, c khi sai.
Thng k hc phn bit 2 loi sai lm sau:
H Cng nghip Tp.HCM
a) Sai lm loi I
Sai lm loi 1 l loi sai lm m ta phm phi trong
vic bc b gi thuyt H khi H ng.
Xc sut ca vic bc b H khi H ng l xc sut
ca sai lm loi 1 v c k hiu l .
b) Sai lm loi II
Sai lm loi 2 l loi sai lm m ta phm phi trong
vic chp nhn gi thuyt H khi H sai.
Xc sut ca vic chp nhn gi thuyt H khi H sai l
xc sut ca sai lm loi 2 v c k hiu l .
c) Mi lin h gia hai loi sai lm
Khi thc hin kim nh, ta lun mun xc sut phm
phi sai lm cng t cng tt. Tuy nhin, nu h thp
th s tng ln v ngc li.
Trong thc t, gia hai loi sai lm ny, loi no tc hi
hn th ta nn trnh.
Trong thng k, ngi ta quy c rng sai lm loi 1
tc hi hn loi 2 nn cn trnh hn. Do , ta ch xt
cc php kim nh c khng vt qu mt gi tr
n nh trc, thng thng l 1%; 3%; 5%;
Gi tr cn c gi l mc ngha ca kim nh.
1.3. C s l thuyt ca kim nh
gii quyt bi ton kim nh, ta quan st mu ngu
nhin
1
,...,
n
X X v a ra gi thuyt H .
T mu trn, ta chn thng k
1 0
( ,..., ; )
n
T f X X =
sao cho nu khi H ng th phn phi xc sut ca T
hon ton xc nh.
Vi mc ngha , ta tm c khong tin cy (hay
khong c lng) [ ; ] a b cho T tin cy 1.
Khi :
nu [ ; ] t a b th ta chp nhn gi thuyt H ;
nu [ ; ] t a b th ta bc b gi thuyt H .
Nu hm mt ca T i xng qua trc Oy th ta
chn khong i xng [ ; ] t t

, vi:
( ) ( )
2
P T t P T t

= = .
Vy, khi xt na bn phi ca trc Oy th ta c:
nu t t
th ta chp nhn gi thuyt H ;

nu t t
th ta bc b gi thuyt H.
Nu hm mt ca T khng i xng qua trc Oy th
ta chn khong tin cy [0; ] C , vi ( ) P T C = .
Nu t C th ta chp nhn gi thuyt H, v
nu t C th ta bc b gi thuyt H .

2. KIM NH SO SNH C TRNG
CA TNG TH VI MT S
2.1. Kim nh so snh trung bnh vi mt s
Vi s
0
cho trc, ta t gi thuyt
0
: H = .
a) Trng hp 1. Vi
2
30, n bit.
T mc ngha
1
( )
2
B
t t

= .
Tnh gi tr thng k
0
x
t n
.
Nu t t
th ta chp nhn H , ngha l

0
= ;
nu t t
th ta bc b H , ngha l
0
.
b) Trng hp 2. Vi
2
30, n cha bit.
Ta lm nh trng hp 1 nhng thay bng s .
c) Trng hp 3. Vi
2
30, n < bit v
X c phn phi chun, ta lm nh trng hp 1.
d) Trng hp 4. Vi
2
30, n < cha bit v
X c phn phi chun.
T c mu n v mc ngha
1 C n
t

tra ba ng
.
Tnh gi tr thng k
0
x
t n
s
= .
Nu
1 n
t t

th ta chp nhn gi thuyt H ;

1 n
t t

th ta bc b gi thuyt H .
H Cng nghip Tp.HCM
Ch
Trong tt c cc trng hp bc b, ta so snh x v
0
:
Nu
0
x th ta kt lun
0
.
Nu
0
x < th ta kt lun
0
< .

VD 1. S in lc A bo co rng: trung bnh mt h
hng thng phi tr 250 ngn ng tin in, vi
lch chun l 20 ngn. Ngi ta kho st ngu nhin
500 h th tnh c trung bnh hng thng mt h tr
252 ngn ng tin in.
Trong kim nh gi thuyt H : trung bnh mt h
phi tr hng thng l 250 ngn ng tin in vi
mc ngha 1% = , hy cho bit gi tr thng k t v
kt lun ?
VD 2. Nh Gio dc hc B mun nghin cu xem s
gi t hc trung bnh hng ngy ca sinh vin c thay
i khng so vi mc 1 gi/ngy cch y 10 nm.
ng B kho st ngu nhin 120 sinh vin v tnh c
trung bnh l 0,82 gi/ngy vi 0, 75 s = gi/ngy.
Vi mc ngha 3%, hy cho bit kt lun ca ng B?
VD 3. Trong mt nh my go, trng lng ng bao
theo quy nh ca mt bao go l 50 kg v lch
chun l 0,3 kg. Cn th 296 bao go ca nh my ny
th thy trng lng trung bnh l 49,97 kg. Kim nh
gi thuyt H : trng lng mi bao go ca nh my
ny l 50 kg c gi tr thng k t v kt lun l:
A. 1, 7205 t = ; chp nhn H vi mc ngha 6%.
B. 1, 7205 t = ; bc b H , trng lng thc t ca
bao go nh hn 50 kg vi mc ngha 6%.
C. 1, 9732 t = ; chp nhn H vi mc ngha 4%.
D. 1, 9732 t = ; bc b H , trng lng thc t ca
bao go nh hn 50 kg vi mc ngha 4%.
VD 4. Mt cng ty cho bit mc lng trung bnh ca
mt k s cng ty l 5,7 triu ng/thng vi lch
chun 0,5 triu ng/thng. K s A d nh xin vo
lm cng ty ny v thm d 18 k s th thy
lng trung bnh l 5,45 triu ng/thng.
K s A quyt nh rng: nu mc lng trung bnh
bng vi mc cng ty a ra th np n xin lm.
Vi mc ngha 2%, cho bit kt lun ca k s A ?
VD 5. Ngi ta kim tra ngu nhin 38 ca hng ca
cng ty A v c bng doanh thu trong 1 thng l:
X (triu ng/thng) 200 220 240 260
S ca hng 8 16 12 2
Kim nh gi thuyt H : doanh thu trung bnh hng
thng ca mt ca hng cng ty l 230 triu ng,
mc ngha ti a gi thuyt H c chp nhn l:
A. 3,4%; B. 4,2%; C. 5,6%; D. 7,8%.
VD 6. im trung bnh mn Ton ca sinh vin nm
trc l 5,72. Nm nay, theo di 100 SV c s liu:
im 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

S sinh vin 3 5 27 43 12 6 4

Kim nh gi thuyt H : im trung bnh mn Ton
ca sinh vin nm nay bng nm trc, mc
ngha ti a H c chp nhn l:
A. 13,94%; B. 13,62%; C. 11,74%; D. 11,86%.
VD 7. Thi gian X (pht) gia hai chuyn xe bus trong
mt thnh ph l bin ngu nhin c phn phi chun.
Cng ty xe bus ni rng: trung bnh c 5 pht li c 1
chuyn xe bus. Ngi ta chn ngu nhin 8 thi im
v ghi li thi gian (pht) gia hai chuyn xe bus l:
5,3; 4,5; 4,8; 5,1; 4,3; 4,8; 4,9; 4,7.
Vi mc ngha 5%, hy kim nh li ni trn ?
VD 8. Chiu cao cy ging X (m) trong mt vm
m l bin ngu nhin c phn phi chun. Ngi ta
o ngu nhin 25 cy ging ny v c bng s liu:

X (m) 0,8 0,9 1,0 1,1 1,2 1,3
S cy 1 2 9 7 4 2

Theo quy nh ca vn m, khi no cy cao hn 1 m
th em ra trng. Vi mc ngha 5%, kim nh gi
thuyt H : cy ging ca vn m cao 1 m c gi
tr thng k v kt lun l:
A. 2, 7984 t = , khng nn em cy ra trng.
B. 2, 7984 t = , nn em cy ra trng.
C. 1, 9984 t = , khng nn em cy ra trng.
D. 1, 9984 t = , nn em cy ra trng.
H Cng nghip Tp.HCM
2.2. Kim nh so snh t l vi mt s
Vi s
0
p cho trc, ta t gi thuyt
0
: H p p = .
T mc ngha
1
( )
2
B
t t

= .
T mu c th, ta tnh t l mu
m
f
n
= v
gi tr thng k
0
0 0
f p
t n
p q
= ,
0 0
1 q p = .
Nu t t
th chp nhn H , ngha l

0
p p = .
Nu t t
th bc b H , ngha l
0
p p .
Khi :
0 0
f p p p ;
0 0
f p p p < < .
VD 9. Mt bo co cho bit c 58% ngi tiu dng
Vit Nam quan tm n hng Vit. Kho st ngu nhin
1.000 ngi dn Vit Nam thy c 536 ngi c hi
l c quan tm n hng Vit. Vi mc ngha 5%,
hy kim nh li bo co trn ?
VD 10. Kho st ngu nhin 400 sinh vin v mc
nghim tc trong gi hc th thy 13 sinh vin tha
nhn c ng trong gi hc. Trong kim nh gi thuyt
H : c 2% sinh vin ng trong gi hc, mc ngha
ti a l bao nhiu H c chp nhn ?
VD 11. kim tra mt loi sng th thao, ngi ta cho
bn 1.000 vin n vo 1 tm bia thy c 670 vin
trng mc tiu. Sau , ngi ta ci tin k thut v
kim tra li th thy t l trng ca sng lc ny l 70%.
Trong kim nh gi thuyt H : t l bn trng ca
sng th thao ny l 70%, vi mc ngha 3% c
gi tr thng k t v kt lun l:
A. 2, 0702 t = v ci tin k thut l tt.
B. 2, 0702 t = v ci tin k thut l cha tt.
C. 2, 0176 t = v ci tin k thut l tt.
D. 2, 0176 t = v ci tin k thut l cha tt.
VD 12. Cng ty A tuyn b rng c 40% ngi tiu
dng a thch sn phm ca mnh. Kho st 400 ngi
tiu dng thy c 179 ngi a thch sn phm ca
cng ty A. Trong kim nh gi thuyt H : c 40%
ngi tiu dng thch sn phm ca cng ty A, mc
ngha ti a H c chp nhn l:
A. 7,86%; B. 6,48%; C. 5,24%; D. 4,32%.
2.3. Kim nh so snh phng sai vi mt s
(tham kho)
Gi s tng th c phn phi chun. Vi s
2
0
cho
trc, ta thc hin cc bc sau:
t gi thuyt
2 2
0
: H = .
T mu ta tnh thng k
2
2
2
0
( 1) n s
=
.
T
2 2
1 1
, 1
2 2 2
D
n n
1 1

( ) ( )
tra bang

.
VD 13. Tin hnh 25 quan st v ch tiu X ca 1 loi
sn phm (phn phi chun), tnh c
2
416, 667 s = .
C ti liu ni rng phng sai ca ch tiu X l 400.
Vi mc ngha 3%, hy cho nhn xt v ti liu ny ?
Nu
2 2 2
1 1
1
2 2
n n
1 1

( ) ( )

th ta chp nhn H ,
ngc li th ta bc b H .
Trong trng hp bc b:
nu
2 2
0
s th ta kt lun
2 2
0
;
nu
2 2
0
s < th ta kt lun
2 2
0
< .
3. KIM NH SO SNH HAI C TRNG
CA HAI TNG TH
3.1. So snh hai trung bnh ca hai tng th X, Y
Ta c 4 trng hp v vic chp nhn hay bc b H
ta u lm nh kim nh so snh trung bnh vi 1 s
(c 4 trng hp ta u t gi thuyt :
x y
H = ).
a) Trng hp 1. , 30
x y
n n v
2 2
,
x y
bit.
Ta tnh thng k
2
2
y
x
x y
x y
t
n n
v so snh vi t
.
H Cng nghip Tp.HCM
b) Trng hp 2. , 30
x y
n n v
2 2
,
x y
cha bit.
Ta thay
2 2
,
x y
bng
2 2
,
x y
s s trong trng hp 1.
c) Trng hp 3. , 30
x y
n n < v
2 2
,
x y
bit
ng thi X, Y c phn phi chun.
Ta lm nh trng hp 1.
d) Trng hp 4. , 30
x y
n n < v
2 2
,
x y
cha bit
ng thi X, Y c phn phi chun.
Tnh phng sai chung ca 2 mu:
2 2
2
( 1) ( 1)
.
2
x x y y
x y
n s n s
s
n n

=

Tnh gi tr thng k .
1 1
.
x y
x y
t
s
n n

T
2
x y
n n
C
t

tra ba ng
v so snh vi t .
VD 1. Ngi ta tin hnh bn hai loi phn X, Y cho
cy c chua. Vi 60 cy c bn phn X th thu c
trung bnh 32,2 qu v lch chun 8,5 qu; 72 cy
c bn phn Y thu c trung bnh 28,4 qu v
lch chun 9,3 qu. Vi mc ngha 5%, hy cho bit
kt lun v hai loi phn bn trn ?
VD 2. so snh mc lng trung bnh ca nhn vin
n X (USD/gi) v nam Y (USD/gi) mt cng ty
a quc gia, ngi ta tin hnh kho st ngu nhin 100
n v 75 nam th c kt qu:
7, 23 x = , 1, 64
x
s = v 8, 06 y = , 1, 85
y
s = .
Vi mc ngha 3%, kim nh gi thuyt H : mc
lng trung bnh ca n v nam cng ty ny l
nh nhau c gi tr thng k v kt lun l:
A. 4, 0957 t = , mc lng ca n v nam nh nhau.
B. 4, 0957 t = , mc lng ca n thp hn nam.
C. 3, 0819 t = , mc lng ca n v nam nh nhau.
D. 3, 0819 t = , mc lng ca n thp hn nam.
VD 3. Tui th (nm) ca pin l bin ngu nhin c
phn phi chun. Mt cng ty sn xut th nghim 10
chic pin loi X v 12 chic pin loi Y th c kt qu:
4, 8 x = , 1,1
x
s = v 4, 3 y = , 0, 3
y
s = .
Vi mc ngha 1%, ta c th kt lun tui th ca
loi pin X cao hn loi pin Y c khng ?
VD 4. Tui th (thng) ca thit b l bin ngu nhin
c phn phi chun. Ngi ta kim tra ngu nhin tui
th ca 15 thit b loi A, c kt qu:
114; 78; 96; 137; 78; 103; 126; 86;
99; 114; 72; 104; 73; 86; 117.
Kim tra tui th ca 17 thit b loi B thy c trung
bnh l 84 thng v lch chun l 19 thng.
3.2. So snh hai t l ca hai tng th X, Y
Ta thc hin cc bc sau:

t gi thuyt : .
x y
H p p =
Kim nh gi thuyt H : tui th ca thit b loi A
v B l nh nhau vi mc ngha 3% c gi tr
thng k v kt lun l:
A. 2,1616 t = ; tui th ca hai loi thit b l nh nhau.
B. 2,1616 t = ; tui th ca loi thit b A ln hn.
C. 2, 4616 t = ; tui th ca hai loi thit b l nh nhau.
D. 2, 4616 t = ; tui th ca loi thit b A ln hn.
T 2 mu ta tnh
x
x
x
m
f
n
= ,
y
y
y
m
f
n
= ,
0
x y
x y
m m
p
n n
.
Tnh gi tr thng k
0 0
1 1
x y
x y
f f
t
p q
n n
=
1

( )
.
Kt lun:
Nu t t
th ta chp nhn H
x y
p p = .
Nu t t
v
x y
f f < th ta bc b H
x y
p p < .
Nu t t
v
x y
f f th ta bc b H
x y
p p .
VD 5. T hai tng th X v Y ngi ta

tin hnh kim
tra 2 mu c kch thc 1000
x
n = , 1200
y
n = v mt
tnh cht A th c 0, 27 =
x
f v 0, 3 =
y
f .
H Cng nghip Tp.HCM
VD 6. Kim tra 120 sn phm kho I thy c 6 ph
phm; 200 sn phm kho II thy c 24 ph phm.
Hi cht lng hng hai kho c khc nhau khng vi:
1) mc ngha 5%; 2) mc ngha 1%.
Vi mc ngha 9%, hy so snh 2 t l ca 2 tng th ?
VD 7. Mt cng ty in t tin hnh iu tra th trng
v s thch xem tivi ca c dn trong 1 thnh ph. iu
tra ngu nhin 400 ngi qun X thy c 270 ngi
xem tivi t nht 1 gi trong 1 ngy; 600 ngi qun Y
c 450 ngi xem tivi t nht 1 gi trong 1 ngy.
Trong kim nh gi thuyt H : t l c dn xem tivi t
nht 1 gi trong 1 ngy qun X v Y nh nhau,
mc ngha ti a H c chp nhn l:
A. 0,96%; B. 2,84%; C. 4,06%; D. 6,14%.
VD 8. Trc bu c, ngi ta thm d 1000 c tri th
thy c 400 ngi ni rng s b phiu cho ng A. Mt
tun sau (vn cha bu c), ngi ta t chc 1 cuc
thm d khc v thy c 680 trong s 1500 c tri c
hi s b phiu cho ng A. Kim nh gi thuyt H: t
l c tri ng h ng A hai ln l nh nhau, vi
mc ngha 1% c gi tr thng k v kt lun l:
A. 2, 6356 t = ; c tri ngy cng ng h ng A.
B. 2, 6356 t = ; c tri ng h ng A khng thay i.
C. 2,1349 t = ; c tri ngy cng ng h ng A.
D. 2,1349 t = ; c tri ng h ng A khng thay i.
3.3. So snh hai phng sai ca hai tng th X, Y

(Tham kho)
t gi thuyt
2 2
:
x y
H = .
Tnh gi tr kim nh
2
2
x
y
s
g
s
= .
T
2
( 1, 1)
2
E
x y
f f n n =
tra bang
.
Nu g f th ta chp nhn H , nu g f ta bc b H .
Trong trng hp bc b H:
nu
2 2
x y
s s th kt lun
2 2
x y
;
nu
2 2
x y
s s < th kt lun
2 2
x y
< .
VD 9. Gi c phiu l bin ngu nhin c phn phi
chun. iu tra ngu nhin gi c phiu ca cng ty X
trong 25 ngy ngi ta tnh c lch tiu chun
mu hiu chnh l 7,5 ngn ng; ca cng ty Y trong
22 ngy l 6,2 ngn ng. Vi mc ngha 5%, hy so
snh v ri ro c phiu ca hai cng ty trn ?
VD 10. Doanh s bn hng (n v: triu ng) ca
cng ty A l bin ngu nhin c phn phi chun. Cng
ty A cho ngi theo di doanh s bn hng trong 7
ngy vng X th tnh c phng sai mu cha hiu
chnh l 82,1; vng Y trong 6 ngy th tnh c
25,3. Vi mc ngha 3%, hy so snh ri ro u t
ca cng ty A hai vng trn ?
3.4. So snh hai trung bnh dng vector (X, Y)
(Tham kho)
Ty vo n v phng sai bit hay cha bit, ta xt
cc trng hp ging nh so snh trung bnh vi 1 s.
t d Y X = v gi thuyt : 0
d
H = .
Tnh thng k
d
d
t n
s
= (n l s cp c trong mu).
VD 11. Gi s ngi ta dng thuc A cho 10 ngi. o
nhp tim/pht trc v sau khi dng thuc ca tng
ngi, c bng kt qu:
Trc:X 70 77 78 72 81 78 73 74 79 80
Sau: Y 76 75 78 77 85 81 76 74 85 80

Vi mc ngha 5%, thuc A c lm thay i nhp tim
trc khi dng so vi sau khi dng hay khng ?
Gii. t d Y X = v gi thuyt : 0
d
H = .
Do 10 n = , phng sai cha bit nn bi ton l TH4.
T bng s liu, ta tnh c: 2, 5 d = ; 2, 8382
d
s = .
Mc ngha
9
0,05
0, 05 2, 262
C
t = = .
Thng k
2, 5
. . 10 2, 7855
2, 8382
d
d
t n
s
= = = .
V
9
0,05
t t nn ta bc b H .
Vy thuc A lm thay i nhp tim.
H Cng nghip Tp.HCM

Chng Chng 8. 8. B B i i to to n n tng tng quan quan & & H H i i quy quy
1. H S TNG QUAN MU
1.1. nh ngha

H s tng quan mu r l s o mc ph thuc
tuyn tnh gia hai mu ngu nhin cng c X v Y .
Gi s ta c mu ngu nhin c n v vector ngu nhin
( , ) X Y l ( , ); 1; 2;...;
i i
x y i n = . Khi , h s tng
quan mu r c tnh theo cng thc:
1
. 1
; .
.
n
i i
i x y
xy x y
r xy x y
s s n
=
= =

VD 1. Kt qu o lng cholesterol (Y) c trong mu
ca 10 i tng nam tui (X) nh sau:
X 20 52 30 57 28 43 57 63 40 49
Y 1,9 4,0 2,6 4,5 2,9 3,8 4,1 4,6 3,2 4,0
Tnh h s tng quan mu gia X v Y .
1.2. Tnh cht

1) 1 1 r .
2) Nu 0 r = th , X Y khng c quan h tuyn tnh;
Nu 1 r = th , X Y c quan h tuyn tnh tuyt i.
3) Nu 0 r < th quan h gia , X Y l gim bin.
4) Nu 0 r th quan h gia , X Y l ng bin.
Gii. T s liu bng trn, ta tnh c:

20 1, 9 ... 49 4, 0
167, 26
10
xy

= = ;
1
4
1
3, 9
n
i
i
x x
n
=
= =
; 13, 5385
x
s = ;
1
3
1
, 56
n
i
i
y y
n
=
= =
; 0, 8333
y
s = .
Vy
.
0, 9729
.
x y
xy x y
r
s s
= = .
2. ng hi quy trung bnh tuyn tnh thc nghim
T mu thc nghim v vector ngu nhin ( , ) X Y , ta
biu din cc cp im ( , )
i i
x y ln mpOxy. Khi ,
ng cong ni cc im l ng cong ph thuc ca
Y theo X m ta cn tm (xem hnh a), b)).

Hnh a
Hnh b
ng thng l ng hi quy thc nghim xp x tt
nht cc im mu cho, cng l xp x ng cong
cn tm. Trong hnh a) ta thy xp x tt (ph thuc
tuyn tnh cht), hnh b) xp x khng tt.
2.1. Phng php bnh phng b nht
Khi c s ph thuc tuyn tnh tng i cht gia hai
bin ngu nhin X v Y ta cn tm biu thc a bX
xp x Y tt nht theo ngha cc tiu sai s bnh
phng trung bnh
2
( ) E Y a bX , phng php ny
c gi l bnh phng b nht.
Vi mi cp im ( , )
i i
x y th sai s xp x l:
( )
i i i
y a bx = (xem hnh c)).
Ta i tm cc c lng a, b
sao cho
2
1
n
i
i =
t cc tiu.
t
2
1
n
i
i
Q
=
=

1
2
( )
i i
n
i
a bx y
=
l
l
l
=
, ta c:
Hnh c
/
1 1
/
2
1 1 1
(1)
0
0
(2)
n n
i i
a
i i
n n n
b
i i i i
i i i
na b x y
Q
Q
a x b x x y
= =
= = =
'
1
1
= 1 '
1
1 =
1
1 1
! !
1 1
=
1 1
1+ =
1
1
1
+

H Cng nghip Tp.HCM
1 1
1 1
(1) . .
n n
i i
i i
a y b x y b x
n n
= =
= =

.

Thay a vo (2), ta c:

( )
2
1 1 1
.
n n n
i i i i
i i i
y b x x b x x y
= = =
=

2
1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1
. .
n n n n
i i i i i
i i i i
b x x x x y y x
n n n n
= = = =
1 1

=

( ) ( )

2 2
2
.
.
x
xy x y
b x x xy x y b
s
1
= =
( )
.
Vy
2
.
x
xy x y
b
s
= , . a y b x = .

ng hi quy tuyn tnh ca Y theo X l:

. y a bx =

Tng t:
2
.
y
xy x y
b
s
= , . a x b y = .

ng hi quy tuyn tnh ca X theo Y l:

. x a by =
Gii. 1) 1, 55; 0, 0707; 53; 5, 099
x y
x s y s = = = = ;
82, 45 1, 55 53
82, 45 0, 8322
0, 0707 5, 099
xy r

= = =
.
VD 2. o chiu cao (X: m) v khi lng (Y: kg) ca 5
hc sinh nam, ta c kt qu:
X 1,45 1,60 1,50 1,65 1,55
Y 50 55 45 60 55
1) Tm h s tng quan r.
2) Lp phng trnh hi quy tuyn tnh ca Y theo X.
3) D on nu mt hc sinh cao 1,62m th nng khong
bao nhiu kg?
2)
2 2
. 82, 45 1, 55 53
60, 0181
(0, 0707)
x
xy x y
b
s

= = = ;
53 60, 0181 1, 55 40, 0281 a y bx = = = .
Vy 40, 0281 60, 0181 y x = .
3) Hc sinh cao 1,62m th nng khong:
40, 0281 60, 0181 1, 62 57, 2012 y = = kg.
Y
X

0,3

0,7

1,0
1 20 10
2 30 10
3 10 20

VD 3. S vn u t
(X: triu ng) v li
nhun thu c (Y:
triu ng) trong mt
n v thi gian ca
100 quan st l:
1) Lp phng trnh hi tuyn tnh ca X theo Y.
2) D on nu mun li nhun thu c l 0,5 triu
ng th cn u t bao nhiu?
Gii. 1) Ta c 2; 0, 7746; 0, 71;
x
x s y = = =
0, 2427
y
s = ; 1, 56 xy = .
2 2
. 1, 56 0, 71 2
2, 3768
(0, 2427)
y
xy x y
b
s

= = = ;
2 2, 3768 0, 71 0, 3125 a x by = = = .
Vy 0, 3125 2, 3768 x y = .
2) Nu mun li nhun thu c l 0,5 triu th cn u
t khong:
0, 3125 2, 3768 0, 5 1, 5009 x = = triu ng.
VD 4. S thng bia (Y: thng) c bn ra ph thuc
vo gi bn (X: triu ng/ thng). iu tra 100 i l v
1 loi bia trong mt n v thi gian c bng s liu:

Y
X

100

110

120
0,150 5 15 30
0,160 10 25
0,165 15

1) Tnh h s tng quan r.
2) Lp phng trnh hi tuyn tnh ca X theo Y.
3) D on nu mun bn c 115 thng bia th gi
bn mi thng c bao nhiu?
H Cng nghip Tp.HCM
2)
2 2
. 17, 1 0, 1558 110
0, 0006
(7, 746)
y
xy x y
b
s

= = = ;
0, 1558 0, 0006 110 0, 2218 a x by = = = .
Vy 0, 2218 0, 0006 x y = .
3) Nu mun bn c 115 thng bia th gi bn mi
thng khong:
0, 2218 0, 0006 115 0, 1528 x = = triu ng.
Gii. 1) 0,1558; 0, 006; 110; 7, 746
x y
x s y s = = = = ;
17,1 0,1558 110
17,1 0, 8176
0, 006 7, 746
xy r

= = =
.
S S d d ng ng m m y y t t nh nh b b t t i i t t m m ng ng h h i i quy quy
1. S liu khng c tn s
a) My tnh f
x
500MS, f
x
570MS
VD 1. Bi ton cho dng cp ( ) ,
i i
x y nh sau:
X
20 52 30 57 28 43 57 63 40 49
Y
1,94,02,6 4,52,9 3,84,14,6 3,24,0
Tm h s r , ng hi quy Y theo X: y a bx = .
Nhp s liu:
MODE REG LIN
X, Y M
+
20, 1.9 M
+

52, 4.0 M
+

49 , 4.0 M
+

Xut kt qu:
SHIFT 2 (dch chuyn mi tn phi 2 ln)
1 (A chnh l a trong phng trnh)
2 (B chnh l b trong phng trnh)
3 (r chnh l r ).
p s: 0, 9729 r = ; 0, 9311 0, 0599 y x = .
b) My tnh f
x
500ES, f
x
570ES
Xt li VD 1 trn.
Nhp s liu:
mc Stat 2 (ch khng tn s)
MODE 3 (stat) 2 (A+Bx) (nhp cc gi tr
ca X, Y vo 2 ct)
X Y
20 1.9
52 4.0

49 4.0
Xut kt qu:
SHIFT 1 7 1(A chnh l a trong phng trnh)
SHIFT 1 7 2(B chnh l b trong phng trnh)
SHIFT 1 7 3(r chnh l r trong phng trnh).
2. S liu c tn s
a) My tnh f
x
500MS, f
x
570MS
VD 2. Tm h s r , ng hi quy thc nghim Y theo
X: y a bx = vi bi ton cho dng bng nh sau:
X
Y

21

23

25
3 2
4 5 3
5 11 8

Nhp s liu:
MODE REG LIN
X, Y; n M
+
21, 3; 2 M
+

21, 4; 5 M
+

25 , 5; 8 M
+

Xut kt qu: lm nh 1a).
p s: 0, 7326 r = ; 2, 6694 0, 3145 y x = .
b) My tnh f
x
500ES, f
x
570ES
Xt li VD 2 trn
Nhp s liu:
Mc Stat 1 (ch c tn s)
MODE 3 (stat) 2 (A+Bx) (nhp cc gi tr
ca X, Y, tn s vo 3 ct)
X Y FREQ
21 3 2
21 4 5
...
25 5 8
Xut kt qu: lm nh 1b).
..Ht..
Tieu luan Xac suat Thong ke ai hoc ThS. oan Vng Nguyen
Trang 41
TRNG I HC CNG NGHIP THNH PH H CH MINH
KHOA KHOA HC C BN

TIU LUN
XC SUT THNG K I HC

TN TI
.

GVHD:
Lp hc phn:..Khoa: KHCB
Hc k:Nm hc:
Danh sch nhm: (ghi theo th t ABC)
1. Nguyn Vn A
2. L Th B
..
HNG DN TRNH BY
1) Trang ba nh trn (nh my, khng cn in mu).
2) Phn u trnh by L thuyt (vit tay, khng cn li ni u).
3) Sau phn L thuyt l n phn Bi tp, chp cu no xong th gii r rng ngay cu .
4) Trang cui cng l Ti liu tham kho:
1. Nguyn Ph Vinh Gio trnh Xc sut Thng k v ng dng NXB Thng k.
2. Nguyn Thanh Sn L Khnh Lun L thuyt Xc sut v Thng k ton NXBTK.
3. u Th Cp Xc sut Thng k L thuyt v cc bi tp NXB Gio dc.
4. L S ng Xc sut Thng k v ng dng NXB Gio dc.
5. ng Hng Thng Bi tp Xc sut; Thng k NXB Gio dc.
6. o Hu H L thuyt Xc sut Thng k & Bi tp NXB Khoa hc K thut.
Ch
Phn lm bi tiu lun bt buc phi vit tay (khng chp nhn nh my) trn 1 hoc 2 mt giy A4 v
ng thnh tp cng vi trang ba.
Thi hn np tiu lun: Tit hc cui cng (SV t c bi hc cui cng lm!).
Nu np tr hoc ghi st tn ca thnh vin trong nhm s khng c gii quyt v b cm thi.
Mi nhm c t 1 (mt) n ti a l 7 (by) sinh vin. Sinh vin t chn nhm v nhm t chn ti.
1) Mi nhm t chn 1 ti L thuyt. Trong phn trnh by L thuyt, khuyn khch sinh vin tham
kho thm nhiu ti liu khc v khng c ly li cc v d trong bi hc trn lp. Ch l sinh
vin ch nn quan tm n L thuyt ng dng (khng nn a vo cc l thuyt Ton kh hiu!).
2) Phn lm bi tp, sinh vin phi bng hnh thc t lun r rng. Khuyn khch sinh vin lm cc cu
hi kh, khng c chn 2 cu hi trong cng 1 dng.
Cch chn nh sau:
a) Nhm ch c 1 sinh vin th chn lm 18 cu gm:
2.1. Hai cu CNG THC XC SUT TNG TCH,
2.2. Hai cu CNG THC XC SUT Y BAYES,
2.3. Mt cu BIN NGU NHIN RI RC v 1 cu BIN NGU NHIN LIN TC,
2.4. Bn cu PHN PHI XC SUT THNG DNG V CC LOI XP X XC SUT,
2.5. Mt cu VECTOR NGU NHIN RI RC v 1 cu VECTOR NGU NHIN LIN TC,
2.6. Hai cu C LNG KHONG,
2.7. Hai cu KIM NH GI THUYT,
2.8. Hai cu BI TP TNG HP.
b) Nhm c t 2 n ti a 7 sinh vin th mi sinh vin tng thm phi lm s cu hi tng thm bng
1/2 s cu tng ng vi nhm c 1 sinh vin.
VD. Nhm c 4 sinh vin th s bi tp s l: 18 + 9.3 = 45 cu.

Tn ti: Ly tn ti phn L thuyt lm tn ti ca tiu lun.
..
Trang 42

PHN I. L THUYT

ti 1. BIN C NGU NHIN V KIM NH SO SNH HAI C TRNG
1.1. Trnh by cc khi nim v bin c ngu nhin (nh ngha v v d).
1.2. Trnh by nh ngha xc sut theo quan im c in, thng k v hnh hc (cho v d).
1.3. Trnh by kim nh gi thuyt v so snh hai trung bnh (cho v d).
1.4. Trnh by kim nh gi thuyt v so snh hai t l (cho v d).

ti 2. CNG THC XC SUT V KIM NH GI THUYT V TRUNG BNH
2.1. Trnh by cng thc cng xc sut, xc sut c iu kin, cng thc nhn xc sut (cho v d).
2.2. Trnh by cng thc xc sut y , Bayes (cho v d).
2.3. Trnh by cc khi nim v kim nh gi thuyt thng k.
2.4. Trnh by kim nh gi thuyt v trung bnh ca tng th (cho v d).

ti 3. HM PHN PHI XC SUT V C LNG KHONG CHO TRUNG BNH
3.1. Trnh by khi nim bin ngu nhin, phn phi xc sut ca bin ngu nhin (cho v d).
3.2. Trnh by hm phn phi xc sut ca bin ngu nhin (cho v d).
3.3. Trnh by cc khi nim v chnh xc, tin cy, khong tin cy trong c lng khong.
3.4. Trnh by c lng khong cho trung bnh tng th (cho v d).

ti 4. S C TRNG CA BIN NGU NHIN V KIM NH GI THUYT V T L
4.1. Trnh by Mode v K vng ca bin ngu nhin (cho v d).
4.2. Trnh by Phng sai ca bin ngu nhin (cho v d).
4.4. Trnh by kim nh gi thuyt v t l ca tng th (cho v d).

ti 5. PHN PHI XC SUT CA BIN RI RC V L THUYT MU
5.1. Trnh by phn phi xc sut Nh thc v xp x xc sut Nh thc cho Siu bi (cho v d).
5.2. Trnh by phn phi xc sut Poisson v xp x xc sut Poisson cho Nh thc (cho v d).
5.3. Trnh by mu v phng php xc nh mu (cho v d).
5.4. Trnh by 1 v d tnh cc c trng (trung bnh, phng sai, lch chun) mu c th dng
bng (khng c nhp d liu tnh t my tnh b ti).

ti 6. PHN PHI XC SUT CA BIN LIN TC V KIM NH GI THUYT
6.1. Trnh by phn phi Chun (cho v d).
6.2. Trnh by ng dng xp x xc sut phn phi Chun cho Nh thc (cho v d).
6.4. Trnh by kim nh gi thuyt v so snh hai t l (cho v d).

ti 7. VECTOR NGU NHIN RI RC V KIM NH GI THUYT V T L
7.1. Trnh by khi nim vector ngu nhin (cho v d).
7.2. Trnh by phn phi xc sut ca vector ngu nhin ri rc hai chiu:
Phn phi ng thi, thnh phn (l) v c iu kin (cho v d).
7.4. Trnh by kim nh gi thuyt v t l ca tng th (cho v d).

ti 8. VECTOR NGU NHIN LIN TC V C LNG KHONG CHO T L
8.1. Trnh by khi nim vector ngu nhin (cho v d).
8.2. Trnh by phn phi xc sut ca vector ngu nhin lin tc hai chiu:
Phn phi ng thi, thnh phn (l) v c iu kin (cho v d).
8.3. Trnh by cc khi nim v chnh xc, tin cy, khong tin cy trong c lng khong.
8.4. Trnh by c lng khong cho t l tng th (cho v d).

Trang 43

PHN II. BI TP XC SUT

I. CNG THC XC SUT TNG TCH

Cu 1. Mt kho hng c rt nhiu sn phm. Chn ngu nhin ln lt tng sn phm t kho hng cho n
khi gp ph phm th dng. Bit xc sut chn c ph phm mi ln l 0,2. Tnh xc sut sao cho phi chn
n ln th 5? Phi chn ti thiu bao nhiu ln xc sut chn c t nht 1 ph phm khng nh hn 0,8?
Cu 2. Mt sinh vin mun hon thnh kha hc th phi qua 3 k thi vi nguyn tc: nu k thi ny th
mi c thi k tip theo. Bit xc sut sinh vin thi k u l 0,9; k th hai l 0,8 v k th 3 l 0,7.
Tnh xc sut :
a) sinh vin thi c 3 k; b) sinh vin trt k thi th hai?
Cu 3. C 30 thi gm 20 trung bnh v 10 kh. Tnh xc sut :
a) 1 sinh vin bc 1 th gp trung bnh; b) bc 2 th c t nht 1 trung bnh.
Cu 4. Mt hp c 12 bng n, trong c 3 bng hng. Ly ngu nhin ln lt (khng hon li) 3 bng
n dng. Tnh xc sut :
a) c 3 bng u hng; b) t nht 1 bng tt; c) ch c bng th 2 hng.
Cu 5. Hai ngi cng bn vo mt mc tiu mt cch c lp. Kh nng bn trng ca ngi I; II l 0,8; 0,9.
Bit mc tiu b trng n, tnh xc sut ngi II bn trng.
Cu 6. Mt ngi c 4 con g mi, 6 con g trng nht trong mt lng. Ngi th nht n mua 2 con g,
ngi bn bt ngu nhin ra 2 con t lng . Ngi th hai n mua 2 con v ngi bn cng bt ngu nhin
t lng ra 2 con. Tnh xc sut ngi th nht mua 2 con g trng v ngi th hai mua 2 con g mi.
Cu 7. Ba sinh vin cng lm bi thi mt cch c lp. Xc sut lm c bi ca sinh vin A l 0,8; ca sinh
vin B l 0,7; ca sinh vin C l 0,6. Bit SV A lm c bi, tm xc sut c 2 sinh vin lm c bi.
Cu 8. Chia ngu nhin 9 hp sa (trong c 3 hp km phm cht) thnh 3 phn bng nhau (c tn phn I;
II; III). Tnh xc sut trong mi phn u c 1 hp sa km cht lng.
Cu 9. Rt ngu nhin hai l bi t mt b bi ty chun (4 nc, 52 l). Cho bit hai l bi rt ra c mu
. Tnh xc sut rt c hai l bi c.
Cu 10. Mt nhm kho st kinh t th trng tit l thng tin l trong nm qua trong gii doanh nhn c
30% ch u t chng khon, 25% ch u t vng v 10% u t c chng khon ln vng. Tnh t l doanh
nhn khng u t t nht mt trong hai loi trn.
Cu 11. C ba l hng mi l c 20 sn phm, s sn phm loi A c trong mi l hng ln lt l: 12; 14;
16. Bn mua chn ngu nhin khng hon li t mi l hng 3 sn phm nu l no c 3 sn phm u loi A
th nhn mua l hng . Tnh xc sut khng l no c mua.
Cu 12. Hp th nht c 5 bi xanh, 9 bi v 6 bi vng. Hp th hai c 10 bi xanh v 7 bi . Ly ngu
nhin 1 bi t hp th nht b vo hp th hai (khng n mu). Sau ly ngu nhin t hp th hai ra 1
bi th thy bi c mu xanh, tnh xc sut bi ny l ca hp th hai.
Cu 13*. C hai chung g: chung I c 10 g trng v 8 g mi; chung II c 12 trng v 10 mi. C hai con
g chy t chung I sang chung II, sau c hai con g chy ra t chung II. Tnh xc sut c hai con g
chy t chung I sang chung II l 2 con mi v hai con g chy ra t chung II cng l hai con g mi.
Cu 14*. C hai chung th: chung I c 5 th trng v 10 th en, chung II c 3 th trng v 7 th en. T
chung I c mt con chy sang chung II, sau c mt con chy ra t chung II. Tnh xc sut con th chy
ra t chung II l th trng.
Cu 15*. T 1 kin hng cha 12 sn phm trong c 3 ph phm ngi ta chn ngu nhin 2 sn phm
(chn 1 ln). Tm xc sut :
a) 1 sn phm c chn ngu nhin t 10 sn phm cn li s l sn phm tt;
b) 2 sn phm c chn ngu nhin t 10 sn phm cn li s u l sn phm tt;
c) 2 sn phm c chn ngu nhin t 10 sn phm cn li s c ph phm.
Cu 16*. Hp th nht c 3 bi xanh v 4 bi ; hp th hai c 6 bi xanh v 2 bi ; hp th ba c 4 bi xanh
v 7 bi . Ly ngu nhin 1 bi t hp th nht b vo hp th hai, tip tc ly ngu nhin 1 bi t hp th hai
b vo hp ba. Sau ly ngu nhin t hp th ba ra 1 bi, tnh xc sut bi ny mu xanh.
Cu 17*. Mt ngi c 3 vin n (c lp) ang bn vo mt mc tiu vi xc sut trng mc tiu tng
ng ca vin 1, 2, 3 ln lt l 0,6; 0,7; v 0,9. Bit rng mc tiu b trng n. Tnh xc sut :
a) Vin n th 1 trng mc tiu; b) Vin n th 1 v th 3 trng mc tiu.
Trang 44
Cu 18*. Mt ngi c 2 vin n ang bn vo mt mc tiu vi xc sut trng mc tiu ca vin n th
nht l 0,8. Nu vin n th nht trng mc tiu th xc sut trng mc tiu ca vin n th hai l 0,9; nu
vin th nht trt mc tiu th xc sut trng mc tiu ca vin n th hai l 0,6. Bit rng mc tiu b trng
n. Tnh xc sut :
a) Ch c vin n th 1 trng mc tiu; b) C hai vin n u trng mc tiu.

II. CNG THC XC SUT Y BAYES

Cu 1. Bao la th nht nng 20kg c t l ht lp l 1%; bao la th hai 30kg v 2% ht lp; bao th ba 50kg
v 3% ht lp. Trn c ba bao la vo bao th t ri bc ra 1 ht.
a) Tnh xc sut ht la bc ra l ht lp.
b) Gi s ht la bc ra khng lp, tnh xc sut ht la ny l ca bao th 2.
Cu 2. Ba kin hng u c 20 sn phm vi s sn phm tt tng ng l 15, 12 v 10. Ly ngu nhin 1
kin hng (kh nng nh nhau), ri t kin hng chn ngu nhin ra 1 sn phm.
a) Tnh xc sut sn phm chn ra l tt.
b) Gi s sn phm chn ra khng tt, tnh xc sut sn phm ny thuc kin hng th ba.
Cu 3. Hp th nht cha 12 vin phn trng v 8 vin phn ; hp th hai cha 10 vin trng, 10 vin ;
hp ba cha 6 trng, 10 . Chn ngu nhin 1 hp (ng kh nng) v t hp rt ra 1 vin phn.
a) Tnh xc sut vin phn chn c c mu trng.
b) Gi s vin chn c l mu trng, tnh xc sut vin ny l ca hp th nht.
Cu 4. C 5 hp phn gm 3 loi. Loi I gm 2 hp, mi hp cha 12 vin phn trng v 8 vin phn ; loi
II c 1 hp cha 10 vin trng, 10 vin ; loi III gm 2 hp, mi hp cha 6 trng, 10 . Chn ngu nhin
1 hp (ng kh nng) v t hp rt ra 1 vin phn.
a) Tnh xc sut vin phn chn c c mu trng.
b) Gi s vin chn c l mu trng, tnh xc sut vin ny l ca hp loi III.
Cu 5. C 20 kin hng gm 3 loi: 8 kin loi I; 7 kin loi II v 5 kin loi III. Mi kin u c 10 sn
phm v s ph phm tng ng cho mi loi ln lt l 1, 3 v 5. Chn ngu nhin 1 kin hng (ng kh
nng) v t kin rt ra 1 sn phm.
a) Tnh xc sut sn phm rt ra l ph phm.
b) Gi s sn phm c rt ra l tt, tnh xc sut sn phm ny l ca kin hng loi II.
Cu 6. Mt vn lan trng hai loi lan Ngc im cha n hoa, loi I c hoa mu trng im hoa c v loi II
c mu trng im tm . Bit s cy lan loi I bng 7/3 s cy lan loi II v t l n hoa tng ng l 95%,
97%. Ngi mua vo vn lan ny v chn ngu nhin 1 cy Ngc im.
a) Tnh xc sut cy lan ny n hoa.
b) Gi s cy lan ny n hoa, tnh xc sut cy lan ny c hoa mu trng im tm .
Cu 7. Ti 1 bnh vin c s bnh nhn n bng 3/5 s bnh nhn nam. T l bnh nhn nam b bnh ni khoa
l 30%; bnh nhn n b bnh ni khoa l 20%. Gi tn ngu nhin 1 ngi.
a) Tnh xc sut ngi c gi b bnh ni khoa.
b) Gi s ngi c gi khng b bnh ni khoa, tnh xc sut bnh nhn ny l n.
Cu 8. Trn 1 quc l c s t ti gp ba ln s t con. Trung bnh c 100 t ti i qua 1 trm xng th c
25 chic vo trm xng; 100 t con c 10 chic xng. C 1 chic t gh vo trm xng, tnh xc
sut chic xe ny l t con.
Cu 9. Mt nh my c 4 dy chuyn sn xut vi t l ph phm tng ng l 0,4%; 0,2%; 0,5% ; 0,6%. T
mt l sn phm gm 8 sn phm ca dy chuyn I, 12 sn phm ca dy chuyn II, 10 sn phm ca dy
chuyn III v 6 sn phm ca dy chuyn IV chn ra 1 sn phm th nhn c ph phm. Hi ph phm ny
c sn xut bi dy chuyn no vi xc sut ln nht?
Cu 10. Mt phn xng c s lng nam cng nhn gp 3 ln s lng n cng nhn. T l tt nghip
THPT i vi n l 15%, vi nam l 20%. Chn ngu nhin 1 cng nhn ca phn xng v thy cng nhn
ny tt nghip THPT. Tnh xc sut ngi ny l nam.
Cu 11. Trong mt thng kn c hai loi thuc A, B. S lng thuc A bng 2/3 s lng thuc B. T l thuc
A, B ht hn s dng ln lt l 20%; 25%. Chn ngu nhin mt l t thng v c l thuc ht hn
s dng. Tnh xc sut l ny l thuc A.
Cu 12. Trong mt trm cp cu phng c 80% bnh nhn phng do nng v 20% phng do ha cht. Loi
phng do nng c 30% b bin chng, loi phng do ha cht c 50% b bin chng. Mt bc s m tp h s
ca bnh nhn b phng.
a) Tnh xc sut bc s gp bnh n ca bnh nhn phng do nng v b bin chng.
Trang 45
b) Gi s bc s gp bnh n ca bnh nhn phng b bin chng, tnh xc sut bnh n ny l ca bnh nhn
phng do ha cht.
Cu 13. Mt ngi bun bn bt ng sn ang c gng bn mt mnh t ln. ng ta tin rng nu nn kinh
t tip tc pht trin, kh nng mnh t c mua l 80%; ngc li nu nn kinh t ngng pht trin, ng ta
ch c th bn c mnh t vi xc sut 40%. Theo d bo ca mt chuyn gia kinh t, xc sut nn kinh
t tip tc tng trng l 65%. Tnh xc sut ngi bn c mnh t.
Cu 14*. Thng k cho thy t l cp tr sinh i khc trng c cng gii tnh l 50%, cp tr sinh i cng
trng th lun c cng gii tnh. Bit rng t l cp tr sinh i cng trng l p (tnh trn tng s cc cp tr
sinh i). Nu bit 1 cp tr sinh i c cng gii tnh th xc sut chng c sinh i cng trng l 1/3, hy
tnh p?

III. BIN NGU NHIN RI RC V LIN TC

Cu 1. Mt kin hng c 5 sn phm tt v 3 sn phm xu. Chn ngu nhin t kin hng ra 2 sn phm
(chn 1 ln).
a) Lp hm phn phi xc sut ca s sn phm tt chn c;
b) Lp hm phn phi xc sut ca s sn phm xu chn c;
c) Tnh k vng, phng sai ca s sn phm tt; xu.
Cu 2. Kin hng I c 3 sn phm tt v 2 sn phm xu, kin hng II c 2 sn phm tt v 4 sn phm xu.
Chn ngu nhin t kin hng I ra 2 sn phm (chn 1 ln) v t kin II ra 1 sn phm.
a) Lp hm phn phi xc sut ca s sn phm tt chn c;
b) Lp hm phn phi xc sut ca s sn phm xu chn c;
c) Tnh k vng, phng sai ca s sn phm tt; xu.
Cu 3. Kin hng I c 8 sn phm tt v 2 sn phm xu, kin hng II c 5 sn phm tt v 3 sn phm xu.
Chn ngu nhin t kin hng I ra 2 sn phm (chn 1 ln) v b vo kin II, sau t kin II chn ngu
nhin ra 2 sn phm.
a) Lp bng v hm phn phi xc sut ca s sn phm tt chn c t kin II;
b) Lp bng v hm phn phi xc sut ca s sn phm xu chn c t kin II.
Cu 4. Mt ngi vo ca hng thy c 5 chic tivi ging nhau. Anh ta ngh c th ln lt tng chic
n khi chn c tivi tt th mua v nu c 5 ln th u xu th khng mua. Gi X l s ln th. Bit cc
tivi c lp vi nhau v xc sut 1 tivi xu l 0,3.
a) Tnh xc sut ngi ny mua c tivi;
b) Lp bng phn phi v hm phn phi xc sut ca X.
Cu 5. Trong nh ngi A c 7 bng n ging nhau gm 4 bng tt v 3 bng hng. Ngi A em th ln
lt (khng hon li) tng bng n cho n khi chn c 2 bng tt th dng. Gi X l s ln th.
a) Lp bng phn phi v hm phn phi xc sut ca X.
b) Tnh s ln th chc chn nht ngi A c c 2 bng n tt.
Cu 6*. C 2 cu th bng r, mi ngi c 3 qu bng. Hai cu th ln lt nm bng vo r cho n khi c
ngi nm trng r hoc ht bng th ngng. Bit cu th th nht nm trc, xc sut nm bng trng r ca
cu th th nht l 0,7 v ca cu th th hai l 0,8.
a) Gi X
i
(i = 1, 2) l s ln cu th th i nm. Lp bng phn phi xc sut ca X
i
.
b) Gi Y
i
(i = 1, 2) l s ln cu th th i nm trng r. Lp hm phn phi xc sut ca Y
i
.
Cu 7. Cho X l bin ngu nhin c bng phn phi:
X 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
P a 2a 2a 3a a
2
2a
2
a(7a + 1)
a) Xc nh tham s a;
b) Vi a tm c, tnh P(X 5) v tm k nh nht sao cho P(X k) 0, 5 .
Cu 8. Mt x th c 6 vin n vi xc sut bn mi vin trng vng 10 ca 1 bia l 0,8. Nu x th bn lin
tip 3 vin trng vng 10 th ngng khng bn na. Gi X l s vin n x th bn.
a) Tnh P(X 5) ;
b) Lp bng phn phi xc sut ca X;
c) Gi Y l s vin n cn li cha bn, lp hm phn phi xc sut ca Y.
Cu 9. Theo thng k trung bnh c 1000 ngi dn tui 40 th sau 1 nm c 996 ngi cn sng. Mt
cng ty bo him nhn th bn bo him 1 nm cho nhng ngi tui ny vi gi 1,5 triu ng, nu
ngi mua bo him cht th s tin bi thng l 300 triu ng. Gi s cng ty bn c 10.000 hp ng
Trang 46
bo him loi ny (mi hp ng ng vi 1 ngi mua bo him) trong 1 nm. Hi trong 1 nm li nhun
trung bnh thu c ca cng ty v loi bo him ny l bao nhiu?
Cu 10. Gi X, Y (triu ng) l li nhun thu c khi u t 100 triu ng cho tng d n:
X 3 1 0 1 2 3
P 0,1 0,1 0,2 0,2 0,3 0,1
Y 2 1 0 1 3
P 0,1 0,2 0,2 0,2 0,3
a) Tm mc li nhun c nhiu kh nng nht khi u t vo mi d n;
b) Xt xem vic u t vo d n no c t ri ro hn;
c) Lp bng phn phi xc sut ca Z = 2X + Y. Tnh EZ.
Cu 11. Bin ngu nhin lin tc X c hm mt :
2
a(3x x ), 0 x 3
f (x)
0, x [0; 3]

=

.
a) Tm a, tnh P(1 < X < 2) v v th hm y = f(x).
b) Tnh EX, VarX.
Cu 12. Bin ngu nhin lin tc X c hm phn phi:
0, x 1
x 1
F(x) , 1 x 3
2
1, x 3

= <
>
.
a) Tm hm mt f(x), tnh P(2,5 < X < 3,5) v v th hm F(x).
b) Tnh EX, VarX.
2
0, x 2
F(x) (x 2) , 2 x 3
1, x 3

= <
>
.
a) Tm hm mt f(x), tnh P(2,5 < X < 3,5) v v th hm F(x).
b) Tnh EX, VarX.
0, x 0
F(x) sin 2x, 0 x
4
1, x
4

= <

>
.
a) Tm hm mt f(x), tnh P X
6 4
| |

|
\
.
b) Tnh EX, VarX.
Cu 15. Bin ngu nhin lin tc X c hm mt :
a cos x, x ;
2 2
f (x)
0, x ;
2 2
| |

|
\
=

| |
\
.
a) Tm a, hm phn phn phi F(x) v tnh P 0 X
4
| |

|
\
.
b) Tnh EX, VarX.
Cu 16*. Bin ngu nhin lin tc X c hm phn phi: F(x) A B.arctan x, x = + .
a) Tm A, B, hm mt f(x), tnh P( 1 X 1) .
b) Tnh EX, VarX, ModX.
Cu 17*. Bin ngu nhin lin tc X c hm phn phi:
0, x 2
x
F(x) A B.arcsin , 2 x 2
2
1, x 2

= + <
>
.
a) Tm A, B F(x) lin tc v tnh tnh ( ) P 0, 5 X 0, 5 < < .
b) Tm hm mt f(x) v tnh EX.
Trang 47
Cu 18*. Bin ngu nhin lin tc X c hm mt :
3
x
x , x [0; 2]
f (x)
4
0, x [0; 2]
.
a) Tm hm phn phi F(x) v tnh tnh ( ) P 0, 5 X 0, 5 < < .
b) Tnh EX, VarX, ModX.
2
2
cos x, x ;
2 2
f (x)
0, x ;
2 2
| |

|
\
=

| |
\
.
a) Tnh EX v tm hm phn phi F(x).
b) Tnh xc sut trong 3 php th c lp c 2 ln X nhn gi tr trong khong 0;
4
| |
|
\
.
HD: b) Tnh ( ) p P 0 X / 4 = < < , ri dng cng thc Bernoulli (Nh thc).
2
x
, x [0; 3]
f (x)
9
0, x [0; 3]
.
a) Tm hm phn phi F(x). Tnh ModX, EX v VarX.
b) Tnh xc sut trong 3 php th c lp c 2 ln X nhn gi tr trong khong (1; 4).

IV. PHN PHI XC SUT THNG DNG V CC LOI XP X XC SUT

IV.1. Phn phi Siu bi v Nh thc

Cu 1. T mt nhm 10 k s gm 6 k s ha v 4 k s in chn ngu nhin 4 k s (chn 1 ln). Gi X
l s k s in c chn.
a) Tnh xc sut trong 4 k s c chn c ng 2 k s in.
b) Tnh EX v VarX.
b) Lp bng phn phi xc sut ca X.
Cu 2. Mt l sn phm gm 90 sn phm tt v 10 ph phm. Chn ngu nhin 5 sn phm t l (chn 1
ln). Gi X l s sn phm tt trong 5 sn phm ly ra.
a) Tnh xc sut trong 5 sn phm c chn c t nht 2 sn phm tt.
b) Tnh EX v VarX.
c) Lp bng phn phi xc sut ca X.
Cu 3. T b bi 52 l, chn ra (1 ln) 8 l. Gi X l s l c trong 8 l bi chn ra.
a) Tnh xc sut trong 8 l bi c chn c t nht 7 l c.
b) Tnh EX v VarX.
Cu 4. Mt r mn c 12 tri trong c 5 tri h. Chn ngu nhin t r ra 4 tri. Gi X l s tri mn h
chn c.
a) Tnh xc sut trong 4 tri c chn c nhiu nht 2 tri khng h.
b) Tnh EX v VarX.
Cu 5. Mt l hng c rt nhiu sn phm vi t l ph phm l 0,3%. Kim tra ngu nhin ln lt tng sn
phm ca l hng ny. Tnh s sn phm ti thiu cn kim tra xc sut chn c t nht 1 ph phm
khng b hn 91%.
Cu 6. Mt trng tiu hc c t l hc sinh b cn th l 0,9%. Kim tra ngu nhin ln lt tng hc sinh
ca trng ny. Tnh s hc sinh ti thiu cn kim tra xc sut chn c t nht 1 hc sinh b cn th
khng b hn 95%.
Cu 7. Mt ngi mi ngy mua 1 t v s vi xc sut trng s l 1%. Hi ngi y phi mua lin tip ti
thiu bao nhiu ngy c khng t hn 99% hy vng c trng s t nht 1 ln?
Cu 8. Gieo 100 ht u, xc sut ny mm ca mi ht l 0,9. Tnh xc sut trong 100 ht:
a) C ng 80 ht ny mm; b) C t nht 1 ht ny mm; c) C nhiu nht 98 ht ny mm.
Trang 48
Cu 9. Mt k thut vin theo di 14 my hot ng c lp. Xc sut mi my trong 1 gi cn n s
iu chnh ca k thut vin ny bng 0,2. Tnh xc sut trong 1 gi:
a) C 3 my cn n s iu chnh ca k thut vin.
b) S my cn n s iu chnh ca k thut vin khng b hn 3 v khng ln hn 6.
Cu 10. Mt n cng nhn ph trch 12 my dt hot ng c lp. Xc sut mi my dt trong khong
thi gian t cn n s chm sc ca n cng nhn bng 0,3. Tnh xc sut trong khong thi gian t:
a) C 4 my cn n s chm sc ca n cng nhn.
b) S my cn n s chm sc ca n cng nhn khng b hn 3 v khng ln hn 6.
Cu 11. Bn c lp 12 vin n vo 1 mc tiu, xc sut bn trng ca mi vin n l 0,2. Mc tiu b ph
hy hon ton nu c t nht 2 vin n trng vo mc tiu. Tnh xc sut :
a) Mc tiu b ph hy 1 phn; b) Mc tiu b ph hy hon ton.
Cu 12. Bn c lp 10 vin n vo 1 mc tiu, xc sut bn trng ca mi vin n l 0,2. Mc tiu b ph
hy hon ton nu c t nht 8 vin n trng vo mc tiu. Tnh xc sut :
a) Mc tiu b ph hy hon ton; b) Mc tiu b ph hy 1 phn.
Cu 13. C Ba nui 15 con g mi vi xc sut trng ca mi con trong 1 ngy l 0,6.
1) Tnh xc sut trong 1 ngy c Ba c:
a) C 15 con g trng; b) t nht 2 con g trng; c) Nhiu nht 14 con g trng.
2) Nu mun trung bnh mi ngy c 100 trng th c Ba phi nui bao nhiu con g mi ?
3) Nu gi 1 qu trng l 1200 ng th mi ngy c Ba thu c chc chn nht bao nhiu tin?
Cu 14*. Mt hp ng 10 qu cu, trong c 6 qu cu . Chn ngu nhin 5 ln (c hon li), mi ln
chn 4 qu. Tnh xc sut trong 5 ln chn c 3 ln chn c 2 hoc 3 qu cu .
HD: Chn c hon li l c lp nn ta dng cng thc Bernoulli vi xc sut p tnh theo Siu bi.

IV.2. Phn phi Poisson

Cu 1. Mt trm in thoi t ng nhn c trung bnh 200 cuc gi trong 1 gi.
1) Tm xc sut trm in thoi ny nhn c:
a) ng 2 cuc gi trong 1 pht; b) Khng t hn 2 cuc gi trong 1 pht.
2) Tnh s cuc in thoi chc chn nht trm s nhn c trong 16 pht.

Cu 2. Trong 1000 trang sch c 100 li in sai.
1) Tm xc sut khi chn ngu nhin 1 trang sch ny c:
a) ng 1 li in sai; b) Nhiu hn 3 li in sai.
2) Tnh s li in sai chc chn nht khi chn ngu nhin 45 trang sch ny.
Cu 3. Quan st thy trung bnh 5 pht c 15 khch hng vo mt siu th nh.
1) Tm xc sut :
a) Trong 1 pht c 4 khch vo siu th; b) C nhiu hn 2 khch vo siu th trong 45 giy.
2) Tnh s khch chc chn nht s vo siu th ny trong 2 gi 18 pht.
Cu 4. Quan st thy trung bnh mi ngy c 5 tu cp bn cng A.
1) Tm xc sut : a) Trong 2 ngy lin tip c 8 tu cp bn cng A.
b) C t nht 2 tu cp bn cng A trong 6 gi lin tip (mi ngy c 24 gi).
2) Tnh s tu chc chn nht s cp bn cng A trong 2 ngy 15 gi.
Cu 5. Mt bn xe khch trung bnh c 40 xe xut bn trong 1 gi.
1) Tnh xc sut :
a) Trong 1 pht c 2 xe xut bn; b) Nhiu hn 2 xe xut bn trong 30 giy.
2) Tnh s xe chc chn nht s xut bn trong 1 gi 25 pht.
Cu 6. Ti bnh vin A trung bnh 3 gi c 8 ca m.
1) Tm xc sut :
a) C 5 ca m trong 2 gi; b) t nht c 2 ca m trong 45 pht.
2) Tnh s ca m chc chn nht s xy ra ti bnh vin trong 1 ngy (24 gi).
Cu 7. Quan st thy trung bnh 3 pht c 12 t i cy cu X.
1) Tnh xc sut trong 10 pht lin tip c:
a) 40 t i qua cu X; b) T 43 n 46 t i qua cu X.
2) Tnh s t chc chn nht s i qua cu X trong 5 gi 20 pht.
Cu 8. Thng k cho thy trung bnh trong 1 tun gi vng thay i 10 ln.
1) Tnh xc sut trong 2 ngy lin tip c:
Trang 49
a) 5 ln gi vng thay i; b) t nht 2 ln gi vng thay i.
2) Tnh s ln chc chn nht gi vng s thay i trong 1 thng.
Cu 9. Trung bnh 1 pht c hai t i qua trm thu ph.
a) Tnh xc sut c 6 t i qua trm trong 3 pht; t 3 n 4 t i qua trm trong 2 pht.
b) Tnh t xc sut c t nht 1 t i qua trm trong t pht bng 0,99.
Cu 10*. Quan st ti bn xe A, thy trung bnh c 30 pht c 17 xe xut bn. Tnh xc sut trong 5 gi quan
st ti bn xe A th thy c 3 gi, mi gi c t 33 n 36 xe xut bn.
HD: Quan st 5 gi c lp, ta dng cng thc Bernoulli vi xc sut p tnh theo Poisson.

IV.3. Phn phi Chun

Cu 1. Cho X N(3; 4) . Tnh P(X 2) < ,
2
P(X 4) , ( ) P X 3 4 , ( ) P X 2 1 .
Cu 2. Cho X c phn phi chun vi EX = 10 v ( ) P 10 X 20 0, 3 < < = . Tnh ( ) P 0 X 10 < < .
Cu 3. Cho X c phn phi chun vi VarX = 25 v ( ) P X 20 0, 62 = . Tnh EX.
Cu 4. Cho X c phn phi chun vi EX = 5 v ( ) P X 9 0, 2 = . Tnh VarX.
Cu 5. Li sut X (%) ca 1 doanh nghip u t vo 1 d n l bin ngu nhin c phn phi chun. Theo
nh gi ca y ban u t th li sut cao hn 20% c xc sut l 0,1587; cao hn 25% c xc sut l 0,0228.
Vy kh nng doanh nghip u t vo d n trn m khng b thua l l bao nhiu?
HD: T P(X > 0,2) = 0,1587 v P(X > 0,25) = 0,0228
2
, P(X 0) .
Cu 6. Thi gian X (thng) t lc vay n lc tr tin ca 1 khch hng ti 1 ngn hng l bin ngu nhin c
phn phi chun N(18; 16). Tnh t l (xc sut) khch hng tr tin cho ngn hng:
a) Trong khong 12 n 16 thng; b) Khng lu hn 8 thng.
c) Ti thiu l bao lu 99% khch hng tr tin cho ngn hng.
Cu 7. Thi gian X (tnh bng pht) ca mt khch hng ch c phc v ti 1 ca hng l bin ngu
nhin vi X N(4, 5; 1, 21) . Tnh t l khch phi ch c phc v:
a) Trong khong t 3 pht n 5,5 pht; b) Qu 7 pht.
c) Thi gian t phi ch l bao nhiu c khng qu 7% s khch phi ch vt qu t.
Cu 8*. Chiu cao ca nam gii trng thnh l bin ngu nhin X(cm) c phn phi chun N(163; 25).
Hy tm:
a) T l (xc sut) nam gii trng thnh cao t 1,60m n 1,70m.
b) Chn ngu nhin 1 nam gii trng thnh, tm xc sut ngi ny cao trn 1,65m.
c) Xc sut chn ngu nhin ra 5 nam gii trng thnh th c t nht 1 ngi cao trn 1,65m.
HD: b)
165 163
P(X 165) 0, 5
25
1

( )
(khng cn gii hn chiu cao).
c) Chn mi ngi l c lp vi xc sut nh b).
Cu 9*. Chiu di mt loi trc my o nh my A sn xut ra l bin ngu nhin X (cm) c phn phi chun.
Bit chiu di trung bnh ca loi trc my l 40cm = v lch chun l 0, 4cm = . Gi l chnh
xc ca X nu X < . Hi chnh xc ca chiu di sn phm l bao nhiu c t l 80% trc my
t chnh xc ny.
HD:
2
X N( ; ) , ( ) P X 40 0, 8 < = .
Cu 10*. Mt chi tit my c tin vi bn knh quy nh l R = 1cm. Gi s bn knh ca cc chi tit my
sn phm l bin ngu nhin X(cm) c phn phi chun. Tm lch tiu chun ca cc bn knh chi tit my
sn phm sao cho vi t l 90% bn knh chi tit my sn sut ra lch khi mc quy nh khng qu 0,01cm.
HD: ( )
X R 0, 01
P X R 0, 01 0, 9 P 0, 9
1

< = < =

( )
.
Cu 11*. Mt doanh nghip cn mua 1 loi trc my c ng knh t 1,18cm n 1,22cm. C hai nh my
bn loi trc my ny v ng knh cc loi trc my c sn xut ra l bin ngu nhin X, Y c phn phi
chun vi cc s c trng:
ng knh trung bnh lch tiu chun Gi bn
X (nh my I) 1,2cm 0,01 3triu/1 hp/100 ci
Y (nh my II) 1,2cm 0,015 2,7triu/1 hp/100 ci
Trang 50
Vy doanh nghip cn mua trc ca nh my no?
HD: Tnh xc sut (t l) s trc my X, Y tha yu cu ca doanh nghip. T tnh gi tr s dng ca mt
trc my loi X v Y ri so snh a ra kt lun.

IV.4. Cc loi xp x xc sut thng dng (Siu bi ~ Nh thc ~ Poisson, Chun)

Cu 1. Mt bao thc c t l ht lp l 0,01%. Chn ngu nhin lin tip 5000 ht. Tnh xc sut :
a) C ng 2 ht thc lp; b) C t 16 n 20 ht thc lp.
Cu 2. Mt hng sn xut trung bnh 1000 a nhc th c 200 a hng. Tnh xc sut khi hng sn
xut 9000 a nhc th c:
a) 7200 a khng hng; b) T 7180 n 7230 a khng hng.
Cu 3. Xc sut sinh b gi l 51%. Tnh xc sut trong 500 b sp sinh ti 1 bnh vin c:
a) S b gi khong t 150 n 170; b) t nht c 180 b gi.
Cu 4. Mt vn lan c 60000 cy sp n hoa, trong c 7000 cy hoa mu . Chn ngu nhin 200 cy
lan trong vn ny. Tnh xc sut chn c 75 cy lan c hoa mu .
Cu 5. Mt l hng c 30% ph phm. Tnh xc sut khi chn 1000 sn phm t l hng c:
a) 300 ph phm; b) t 250 n 320 ph phm.
Cu 6. Trong mt phng c 40% ngi nghin thuc l. Chn ngu nhin 300 ngi (chn c lp). Tnh
xc sut trong c:
a) 120 ngi nghin thuc l; b) khng qu 140 ngi nghin thuc l.
Cu 7. Mt cng ty nhp 5000 thng ha cht, trong c 1000 thng km cht lng. Cng ty ny phn
phi ngu nhin 10 thng (khng hon li) cho 1 ca hng. Tnh xc sut ca hng ny nhn 3 thng km
cht lng.
Cu 8*. Mt x nghip c 2 my. Trong ngy hi thi, mi cng nhn s bc thm ngu nhin 1 my v sau
sn xut ra 100 sn phm. Nu trong 100 sn phm sn xut ra c t 60 sn phm loi A tr ln th c
thng. Gi s i vi cng nhn X, xc sut sn xut c sn phm loi A tng ng vi 2 my ln lt
l 0,57 v 0,6. Tnh xc sut cng nhn X c thng.
HD: Dng xp x Chun cho Nh thc tnh xc sut c thng ca tng my, sau dng cng thc xc
sut y .
Cu 9*. Mt k tc x (KTX) c 1000 sinh vin, nh n phc v ba tra lm 2 t lin tip. S ch ngi ca
nh n ti thiu l bao nhiu t l sinh vin khng c ch ngi t hn 0,01?
HD: Gi X l s sinh vin chn n nh n trong t 1 v t 2 l 1000 X.
Khi ,
( )
X B 1000; 1/2 . Dng xp x chun tm k (s ch) nh nht sao cho:

( )
P X k; 1000 X k 0, 99 P 1000 k X k 0, 99 < < < < .
Cu 10*. Mt trng cp 3 c 900 hc sinh. Gi s trong 1 nm trung bnh mi hc sinh phi nm trm y t
ca trng 1 ngy v kh nng b bnh ca hc sinh phn phi u cc ngy ca nm. S ging ca trm y t
ti thiu l bao nhiu t l khng ging cho ngi bnh t hn 0,01?
HD: Gi X l s hc sinh phi nm trm y t trong 1 ngy
( )
X B 900; 1/365 .
Dng xp x Poisson vi 900 / 365 2, 466 = = tm m (s ging) nh nht sao cho:

m
k
k 0
e .
0, 99 m 7
k!
(th ln lt tng gi tr m cho n khi tm c m = 7).

V. VECTOR NGU NHIN

V.1. Vector ngu nhin ri rc

Cu 1. Gii tnh X (N: 0; Nam: 1) v thu nhp Y (triu ng / thng) ca cng nhn cng ty A c bng
phn phi ng thi cho bi:
Y
X
2
(1,5 2,5)
3
(2,5 3,5)
4
(3,5 4,5)
0 0,3 0,1 0,1
1 0,2 0,2 0,1
1) Lp bng phn phi xc sut v thu nhp ca cng nhn cng ty A.
Trang 51
2) Lp bng phn phi xc sut v gii tnh ca cng nhn cng ty A.
3) Lp bng phn phi xc sut thu nhp ca n cng nhn cng ty A.
4) Lp bng phn phi xc sut thu nhp ca nam cng nhn cng ty A.
5) Tm xc sut thu nhp ca cng nhn n c thu nhp trn 2,5 triu ng / thng.
6) Tm xc sut thu nhp ca mt cng nhn c thu nhp trn 2,5 triu ng / thng, bit ngi ny l nam.
7) Tm thu nhp trung bnh ca cng nhn cng ty A.
8) Tm thu nhp trung bnh ca nam cng nhn cng ty A.
Cu 2. Ngi ta thng k v trnh hc vn X (Tiu hc: 0; Trung hc: 1; i hc: 2) v tui Y i vi
nhng ngi trong tui lao ng ca tnh A c bng phn phi ng thi cho bi:
Y
X
25
(18 32)
39
(32 46)
53
(46 60)
0 0,01 0,02 0,03
1 0,30 0,20 0,10
2 0,20 0,10 0,04
1) Lp bng phn phi xc sut v trnh hc vn ca ngi dn (trong tui lao ng) tnh A.
2) Lp bng phn phi xc sut v tui ca ngi dn (trong tui lao ng) tnh A.
3) Lp bng phn phi xc sut v tui ca nhng ngi c trnh i hc.
4) Lp bng phn phi xc sut v trnh hc vn ca nhng ngi c tui 39.
5) Tm xc sut ca mt ngi c trnh trung hc tr ln, bit ngi ny c tui 24.
Cu 3. Chi ph qung co X (triu ng) v doanh thu Y (triu ng) ca cng ty A c bng phn phi ng
thi cho bi:
Y
X
500
(400 600)
700
(600 800)
900
(8001000)
30 0,10 0,05 0
50 0,15 0,20 0,05
80 0,05 0,05 0,35
1) Tnh doanh thu trung bnh ca cng ty A.
2) Tnh chi ph qung co trung bnh ca cng ty A.
3) Bit doanh thu ca cng ty A l 500 triu ng, hy lp bng phn phi v chi ph qung co.
4) Lp bng phn phi xc sut v doanh thu ca cng ty A, bit chi ph qung co l 80 triu ng.
5) Bit doanh thu ca cng ty A l 700 triu ng, hy tnh chi ph qung co trung bnh.
6) Bit chi ph qung co l 50 triu ng, hy tnh doanh thu trung bnh.
Cu 4. Li sut ca c phiu X (%) v c phiu Y (%) c bng phn phi ng thi cho bi:
Y
X

2

5

10
3 0,05 0,10 0,10
8 0,10 0,15 0,15
12 0,05 0,15 0,15
1) Tnh li sut trung bnh ca c phiu X, li sut trung bnh ca c phiu Y.
2) Lp bng phn phi xc sut li sut ca c phiu Y khi li sut ca c phiu X l 12%.
3) Tnh li sut trung bnh ca c phiu X khi li sut ca c phiu Y l 5%.
4) Tnh li sut trung bnh ca c phiu Y khi li sut ca c phiu X l 3%.
5) Tnh li sut ca c phiu X khi li sut ca c phiu Y khng m.

V.2. Vector ngu nhin lin tc

Cu 5. Tui th X (nm) v thi gian s dng mi ngy Y (gi) ca mt chi tit my c hm mt :
2x 4y
0 x 3, 0 y 3,
f(x, y)
81
0
'
1
1

1
=
!
1
1
1
+
khi
ni kha c.

1) Tm hm mt ca X, ca Y.
2) Tm tui th trung bnh ca chi tit my v trung bnh thi gian s dng ca chi tit my trong 1 ngy.
3) Tm hm mt ca X khi bit thi gian s dng ca chi tit my trong 1 ngy l 1 gi.
4) Tm hm mt ca Y khi bit tui th ca chi tit my l 1 nm.
5) Bit mi ngy s dng chi tit my 1 gi, hy tm tui th trung bnh ca chi tit my ny.
Trang 52
Cu 6. Nng sut la X (tn/ha) v lng phn bn Y (100kg/ha) c hm mt :
2
xy y
0 3y x 6,
f(x, y)
20 40
0
'
1
1

1
=
!
1
1
1
+
khi
ni kha c.

1) Tm hm mt ca X, ca Y.
2) Tnh EX, EY.
3) Tm cc hm mt ( )
X
f x Y 1 = , ( )
Y
f y X 3 = .
4) Bit nng sut la l 5 tn/ha, hy tm lng phn bn trung bnh.
5) Tm nng sut la trung bnh khi lng phn bn l 150 kg/ha.
.

PHN III. BI TP THNG K

I. C LNG KHONG

Cu 1. Theo di 100 sinh vin ca trng A xc nh s gi t hc nh th thy c 95 sinh vin c t hc
vi s gi trung bnh 4,01 gi vi s = 1,54 gi.
a) c lng s gi t hc ca sinh vin trng A vi tin cy 97%.
b) c lng t l sinh vin trng A khng t hc vi tin cy 90%.
Cu 2. o ng knh d ca 100 chi tit my do 1 x nghip sn xut c s liu:

d (mm)
19,80
19,85
19,85
19,90
19,90
19,95
19,95
20,00
20,00
20,05
20,05
20,10
20,10
20,15
20,15
20,20
S chi tit

3

5

16

28

23

14

7

4
Quy nh nhng chi tit my c ng knh t 19,9mm n 20,1mm l t chun.
a) c lng t l chi tit my t chun vi tin cy 99%.
b) c lng ng knh trung bnh ca chi tit my t chun vi tin cy 95%.
Cu 3. Nng sut la trong 1 vng l bin ngu nhin. Gt ngu nhin 100ha ca vng ny, ngi ta thu c
bng s liu:
Nng sut (t / ha) 41 44 45 46 48 52 54
Din tch (ha) 10 20 30 15 10 10 5
a) c lng nng sut la trung bnh ca vng trn vi tin cy 95%.
b) Nhng tha rung trong vng trn c nng sut t 48 t/ha tr ln l nhng tha c nng sut cao. c
lng t l din tch c nng sut cao vi tin cy 97%.
Cu 4. Nng sut la trong 1 vng l bin ngu nhin. Gt ngu nhin 115ha ca vng ny, ngi ta thu c
bng s liu:
Nng sut (t / ha) 40 42 42 44 44 46 46 48 48 50 50 52
Din tch (ha) 7 13 25 35 30 5
a) c lng nng sut la trung bnh ca vng trn vi tin cy 95%.
b) Nhng tha rung trong vng trn c nng sut khng qu 44 t/ha l nhng tha c nng sut thp (gi s
c phn phi chun). c lng nng sut la trung bnh ca nhng tha rung c nng sut thp vi tin
cy 99%.
Cu 5. Ngi ta xp 100 tri i vo 1 thng, c rt nhiu thng nh th. Kim tra ngu nhin 50 thng thy c
100 tri i khng t tiu chun.
a) c lng t l tri i khng t tiu chun vi tin cy 97%.
b) Mun c lng t l tri i khng t tiu chun vi chnh xc nh hn 0,1% v tin cy 99% th cn
phi kim tra ti thiu bao nhiu thng?
c) Nu c lng t l tri i khng t tiu chun vi chnh xc 0,5% th m bo tin cy l bao nhiu?
Cu 6. Ngi ta xp 100 tri i vo 1 thng, c rt nhiu thng nh th. Kim tra ngu nhin 50 thng thy c
450 tri i khng t tiu chun.
a) c lng t l tri i khng t tiu chun vi tin cy 95%.
b) Nu c lng t l tri i khng t tiu chun vi chnh xc 0,5% th m bo tin cy l bao nhiu?
c) Nu c lng t l tri i khng t tiu chun vi tin cy 99,7% th chnh xc t c bao nhiu?

Trang 53
Cu 7. Kt qu quan st v hm lng Vitamin c trong 1 loi tri cy, thu c bng s liu:
Hm lng (%) 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 12
S tri 5 10 20 35 25 5
a) c lng hm lng Vitamin c trong 1 tri cy trn vi tin cy 95%.
b) Nhng tri cy c hm lng Vitamin trn 10% l tri cy loi I. Hy c lng t l tri cy loi I vi
tin cy 99%.
c) Mun c chnh xc khi c lng hm lng Vitamin c trong 1 tri cy trn nh hn 0,1 vi tin cy
95% th cn quan st thm ti thiu bao nhiu tri cy na?
Cu 8. Tui th ca 1 loi bng n A l bin ngu nhin c phn phi chun, vi 100 = gi. Chn ngu
nhin 100 bng n A th nghim th thy tui th trung bnh ca mi bng l 1000 gi.
a) c lng tui th trung bnh ca bng n A vi tin cy l 95%.
b) Vi chnh xc ca c lng tui th trung bnh bng A l 15 gi, hy xc nh tin cy?
c) Nu mun c chnh xc ca c lng tui th trung bnh bng n A ln hn 25 gi v tin cy l
97% th cn th nghim ti a l bao nhiu bng n A?
Cu 9. Trng lng cc bao bt m ti ca hng A l bin ngu nhin c phn phi chun. Cn ngu nhin 20
bao th thy trng lng trung bnh ca mi bao l 48kg v s = 0,5kg.
a) c lng trng lng trung bnh ca 1 bao bt m ca hng A vi tin cy l 95%.
b) Vi chnh xc ca c lng trng lng 1 bao bt m l 0,26kg, hy xc nh tin cy?
c) Vi chnh xc ca c lng trng lng 1 bao bt m ln hn 0,16kg v tin cy l 97% th cn cn
ti a bao nhiu bao bt m?
Cu 10. Ngi ta kim tra ngu nhin 100 hp tht trong 1 kho th thy c 11 hp khng t tiu chun.
a) c lng t l hp tht t tiu chun trong kho vi tin cy 94%.
b) Vi chnh xc (sai s) cho php khi c lng t l hp tht khng t tiu chun trong kho l 3% th
m bo tin cy l bao nhiu?
c) Vi sai s cho php khi c lng t l hp tht khng t tiu chun trong kho l 1% v tin cy l 99%
th cn kim tra ti thiu bao nhiu hp tht?
Cu 11. Mt l hng c 5000 sn phm. Kim tra ngu nhin 400 sn phm t l hng thy c 360 sn phm
loi A.
a) c lng s sn phm loi A c trong l hng ny vi tin cy 96%.
b) Nu mun c lng s sn phm loi A ca l hng vi sai s ( chnh xc) nh hn 150 sn phm v
tin cy 99% th cn kim tra ti thiu bao nhiu sn phm?
Cu 12. Tui th (tnh bng thng) ca 1 loi thit b A l bin ngu nhin c phn phi chun. Ngi ta th
nghim ngu nhin 15 thit b A, c kt qu:
114; 78; 96; 137; 78; 103; 126; 86; 99; 114; 72; 104; 73; 86; 117.
a) c lng khong cho trung bnh v phng sai ca tui th thit b A vi tin cy 95%.
b) Nu mun c tin cy 99% v chnh xc nh hn 4 thng ca c lng tui th ca thit b A th cn
th nghim thm bao nhiu thit b na?
Cu 13. Gim c ngn hng A mun c lng s tin gi ca mt khch hng bng cch chn ngu nhin
30 khch th thy: S tin gi trung bnh l 4750$ v lch tiu chun l 200$.
a) Vi tin cy 95%, c lng s tin gi ca mt khch hng ti ngn hng A?
b) Nu mun c chnh xc ca c lng trung bnh l 300$ th m bo tin cy l bao nhiu?
c) Nu mun c chnh xc ca c lng trung bnh nh hn 300$ v tin cy 99% th cn chn ti thiu
bao nhiu khch hng?
Cu 14. c lng doanh thu ca 1 cng ty gm 380 ca hng trn ton quc trong 1 thng, ngi ta chn
ngu nhin 10% s ca hng v c bng doanh thu trong 1 thng:
Doanh thu (triu ng / thng) 20 40 60 80
S ca hng 8 16 12 2
a) Vi tin cy 97%, c lng doanh thu ca mi ca hng v tng doanh thu ca cng ty trong 1 thng.
b) Nu mun c chnh xc ca c lng doanh thu ca mi ca hng trong 1 thng l 0,5 triu ng th
m bo tin cy l bao nhiu?
Cu 15*. T l n xu ti 1 ngn hng l t s gia tng s n qu hn v tng s n cho vay ang c thc
hin. T l n xu ca cc ngn hng vng A l bin ngu nhin c phn phi chun. iu tra ngu nhin 7
ngn hng vng A th thy t l n xu l: 7%; 4%; 6%; 7%; 5%; 4%; 9%. Nhn vin thanh tra phn nn
rng t l n xu cc ngn hng vng A cao hn vng B v ch c 3,7%. Vi tin cy 95%, hy dng
c lng khong t l n xu trung bnh ca vng A xem li phn nn trn c ng khng? Cu hi tng
t vi tin cy 99%?
Trang 54
Cu 16. nghin cu nhu cu v loi hng A 1 khu vc ngi ta tin hnh kho st 400 trong ton b
10000 gia nh, kt qu:
Nhu cu (kg/thng) 02 24 46 68 810 1012 1214 1416
S gia nh 10 35 86 132 78 31 18 10
a) c lng nhu cu v loi hng A ca khu vc trn trong 1 nm vi tin cy 95%.
b) Mun c c lng trn vi chnh xc nh hn 5 tn v tin cy 95% th cn kho st ti thiu bao
nhiu gia nh trong khu vc?
Cu 17. Cng ty A tin hnh kho st nhu cu tiu dng v 1 loi sn phm do cng ty sn xut trong 1 thnh
ph c 600000 h dn. Kt qu kho st 500 h dn th c 400 h dng loi sn phm ny:
Nhu cu (kg/thng) 0,51 11,5 1,52 22,5 2,53 33,5
S h dn 40 70 110 90 60 30
a) Nu mun c lng t l h dn c nhu cu v loi sn phm ny vi tin cy 97% v chnh xc nh
hn 3% th cn kho st ti thiu bao nhiu h dn?
b) c lng s lng loi sn phm ny ca cng ty A c tiu th thnh ph trong 1 nm.
Cu 18. nh gi mc tiu th in ca 10000 h dn trong vng A, cng ty in lc tin hnh kim tra
ngu nhin 400 h th c kt qu:
Mc tiu th (100kw/thng) 0 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6
S h dn 20 110 150 64 46 10
a) c lng mc tiu th in ca mi h dn vng A trong 6 thng vi tin cy 97%.
b) Nhng h dn c mc tiu th in trn 400kw/thng l nhng h tiu th in cao. c lng s h dn
c mc tiu th in cao trong vng A vi tin cy 95%.
Cu 19. Mc hao ph nguyn liu cho 1 n v sn phm X l bin ngu nhin c phn phi chun. Quan st
28 sn phm ny ngi ta thu c bng s liu:
Lng nguyn liu hao ph (gr) 19,0 19,5 20,0 20,5
S sn phm 5 6 14 3
a) c lng mc hao ph cho 1 n v sn phm X vi tin cy 97%.
b) Nh my A ang sn xut mi ngy 10000 sn phm X. Bit rng gi nguyn liu sn xut sn phm A
bn trn th trng l 2000 ng/gr, hy c lng xem mi ngy nh my A b thit hi khong bao nhiu
tin hao ph cho loi sn phm X?
Cu 20. Sc chu lc X (kg/cm
2
) ca ximng do nh my A sn xut l bin ngu nhin c phn phi chun.
Ngi ta chn ngu nhin 28 mu ximng ny kim tra sc chu lc, kt qu:
10,0; 13,0; 13,7; 11,5; 11,0; 13,5; 12,2; 13,0; 10,0; 11,0; 13,5; 11,5; 13,0; 12,2;
13,5; 10,0; 10,0; 11,5; 13,0; 13,7; 14,0; 13,0; 13,7; 13,0; 11,5; 10,0; 11,0; 13,0.
Vi tin cy 95%, hy c lng:
a) Sc chu lc ca ximng do nh my A sn xut.
b) T l ximng c sc chu lc km (di 13 kg/cm
2
) do nh my A sn xut.
Cu 21. Mt nng dn gieo th nghim 1000 ht ca 1 ging la mi th c 640 ht ny mm.
a) Vi tin cy 95%, hy c lng t l ny mm ca ging la ny?
b) Nu mun m bo tin cy 97% v chnh xc ca c lng t l ht la ny mm nh hn 1% th
ngi nng dn cn gieo ti thiu bao nhiu ht?
Cu 22. nh gi tr lng c c trong 1 h ngi ta nh bt 2000 con, nh du ri th li xung h.
Sau 1 thi gian bt li 400 con th thy 80 con c nh du.
a) c lng tr lng c c trong h ny vi tin cy 95%.
b) Nu mun chnh xc ca c lng gim hn mt na th ln sau phi bt ti thiu my con c?
Cu 23. Ngi ta tin hnh iu tra th trng v 1 loi sn phm mi bng cch phng vn ngu nhin 300
khch hng th thy c 90 ngi thch sn phm ny.
a) c lng t l khch hng thch sn phm ny vi tin cy 95%.
b) Nu mun m bo tin cy 95% v chnh xc ca c lng t l trn nh hn 1% th cn phng vn
thm ti thiu bao nhiu ngi na?
c) Vi mu iu tra trn v chnh xc ca c lng t l l 0,0436 th m bo c tin cy l bao
nhiu?
Cu 24. iu tra ch tiu X (c phn phi chun v tnh bng %) ca 1 s sn phm cng loi ta c:
X 0 5 5 10 1015 1520 2025 2530 3035 3540
n 7 12 20 25 18 12 5 1
Quy c nhng sn phm c ch tiu X khng qu 10% l loi 2.
Trang 55
a) c lng t l sn phm loi 2 vi tin cy 99%.
b) Nu dng s liu ca mu c lng trung bnh ch tiu X vi tin cy 95% v chnh xc nh hn
1% th cn iu tra ti thiu thm bao nhiu sn phm na?
Cu 25. Mt cng ty in t tin hnh iu tra th trng v s thch xem tivi ca c dn trong 1 thnh ph.
iu tra ngu nhin 40 ngi th thy s gi xem tivi trung bnh ca mi ngi trong 1 tun l l 15,3 gi vi
lch tiu chun mu hiu chnh l 3,8 gi v c 27 ngi xem tin m t nht 3 ln trong 1 tun.
a) c lng t l c dn trong thnh ph xem tin m t nht 3 ln 1 tun vi tin cy 95%.
b) Kch thc mu iu tra ti thiu l bao nhiu nu vi tin cy 95%, cng ty mun c lng thi gian
xem tivi ca mi c dn c chnh xc nh hn 20 pht?
c) Kch thc mu iu tra ti thiu l bao nhiu nu vi tin cy 99%, cng ty mun c lng t l ngi
xem tin m t nht 3 ln 1 tun c chnh xc nh hn 2,5%?
Cu 26. Li sut c phiu ca cng ty A l bin ngu nhin c phn phi chun. Trong 10 nm qua li sut c
phiu ca cng ty A (tnh bng %) ln lt l 15; 10; 20; 7; 14; 9; 8; 13; 12; 12.
a) c lng li sut c phiu ca cng ty A trong 1 nm vi tin cy 99%.
b) Gi s mt ngi mua 1000 c phiu ca cng ty A, mnh gi 50000 ng/c phiu, trong nm nay. Hy
c lng tin li ngi ny thu c vo cui nm t c phiu ca cng ty A?
Cu 27. iu tra ngu nhin 300 khch hng v mc yu thch 1 loi sn phm A th thy c 90 ngi yu
thch.
a) Vi tin cy 98%, hy cho bit t l thp nht v cao nht ca khch hng yu thch sn phm A?
b) Nu mun c lng t l yu thch sn phm A ca khch hng vi tin cy 98% v chnh xc nh
hn 1,5% th cn phi iu tra thm ti thiu bao nhiu khch hng na?
Cu 28. Dng phng php hp th nguyn t phn tch lng km c trong tc, mt k thut vin
phn tch 35 mu tc, kt qu (X l lng km trong tc, n v: ppm (phn triu)):
X (ppm) 188 190 193 195 196 198 199 204
S mu tc 3 4 5 10 7 3 2 1
a) c lng lng km c trong tc vi tin cy 95%.
b) Nu mun c lng lng km c trong tc vi tin cy 97% v chnh xc nh hn 3ppm th cn
phn tch ti thiu bao nhiu mu tc?

II. KIM NH GI THUYT

Cu 1. im danh ngu nhin 100 sinh vin khoa Kinh t thy c 8 ngi vng, im danh 120 sinh vin
khoa C kh thy c 12 ngi vng. Vi mc ngha 2%, hy cho bit mc chuyn cn ca sinh vin hai
khoa trn?
Cu 2. Mt cng ty in thoi ni rng s lp t in thoi cho khch hng trong thnh ph chm nht l 30
ngy k t khi c yu cu. Kim tra ngu nhin 30 khch hng thy thi gian trung bnh ch lp in thoi l
34,5 ngy vi lch mu hiu chnh l 3,3 ngy. Vi mc ngha 3%, c th chp nhn li tuyn b ca
cng ty c khng?
Cu 3. Trng lng mt loi sn phm do nh my A sn xut c phn phi chun v trng lng quy nh l
500gr. Nghi ng trng lng c xu hng gim st, ngi ta cn ngu nhin 25 sn phm loi ny v c bng
s liu:
Trng lng (gr) 480 485 490 495 500 510
S sn phm 2 3 8 5 3 4
Vi mc ngha 0,05, hy cho kt lun v iu nghi ng ni trn?
Cu 4. im mn XSTK ca 1 s sinh vin hai khoa nh sau:
Khoa X:
im 5 6 7 8 9 10
S SV 2 4 12 15 6 2
Khoa Y:
im 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
S SV 1 2 5 9 18 6 1
Vi mc ngha 0,03, c nhn xt g v im trung bnh mn XSTK ca sinh vin hai khoa?
Cu 5. Mt t kim tra mun xc nh thi gian trung bnh t lc cng ty A nhn n khiu ni ca khch
hng n lc gii quyt l bao nhiu ngy, h chn ngu nhin 15 trng hp khiu ni trong nm qua th c
kt qu (n v: ngy):
114; 78; 96; 137; 78; 103; 117; 126; 86; 99; 114; 72; 104; 73; 96.
Gi s s ngy gii quyt khiu ni ca cng ty A l bin ngu nhin c phn phi chun. Vi mc ngha
1%, c th cho rng thi gian 1 khiu ni c gii quyt bi cng ty A vt qu 90 ngy khng?
Trang 56
Cu 6. Trong nm trc, s tin gi tit kim bng ngoi t trung bnh ca mi khch hng l 1000USD/nm.
nh gi xem xu hng ny c c gi nguyn trong nm nay hay khng, ngi ta kim tra ngu nhin
64 s tit kim th thy s tin gi trung bnh ca mi s l 990USD/nm v lch tiu chun hiu chnh l
100USD/nm. Vi mc ngha 3%, hy cho bit s tin gi tit kim ca khch hng c thay i khng?
Cu 7. Hai my cng gia cng mt loi chi tit. kim tra chnh xc ca hai my ny ngi ta o ngu
nhin 7 chi tit do mi my gia cng (n v: mm):
My 1 135 138 136 140 138 135 139
My 2 140 135 140 138 135 138 140
Vi mc ngha 1%, c th xem 2 my c chnh xc nh nhau khng? Bit rng kch thc chi tit do cc
my gia cng c phn phi chun.
Cu 8. kim tra thi gian sn xut ra 1 sn phm cng loi ca hai my (n v: giy), ngi ta theo di
ngu nhin c hai my v ghi li kt qu:
My 1 58 58 56 38 70 38 42 75 68 67
My 2 57 55 63 24 67 43 33 68 56 54
Vi mc ngha 5%, c th xem 2 my c thi gian sn xut ra loi sn phm trn nh nhau khng? Bit
rng thi gian sn xut ra 1 sn phm trn do cc my sn xut c phn phi chun.

IV. BI TP TNG HP

Cu 1. Thu nhp (triu ng / nm) ca 80 h dn trong bn A l bin ngu nhin c phn phi chun. Trong
nm nay, ngi ta iu tra ngu nhin v thu nhp ca 40 h dn trong bn A, c bng s liu:
Thu nhp 4,0 4,5 5,0 5,5 6,0 6,5 7,0 7,5 8,0
S h dn 1 3 4 6 8 7 6 3 2
a) Vi tin cy 95%, hy c lng mc thu nhp ca 1 h dn bn A.
b) Vi tin cy 95%, hy c lng s h dn ca bn A c thu nhp di 5 triu ng / nm.
c) Nu bit trc y 2 nm thu nhp bnh qun ca cc h dn trong bn A l 5,5 triu ng / nm, vi mc
ngha 3% c nhn xt g v mc sng ca dn trong bn A hin nay?
Cu 2. Mc thu nhp (triu ng / thng) ca nhn vin trong 1 cng ty nc ngoi A l bin ngu nhin.
Kho st ngu nhin mt s nhn vin cng ty A, c kt qu:
Thu nhp 8,010 1012 1214 1416 1618 1820 2022 2224
S ngi 12 35 66 47 24 20 6 3
a) c lng mc thu nhp ca 1 nhn vin cng ty A vi tin cy 97%.
b) Nu mun c lng mc thu nhp ca 1 nhn vin cng ty A vi tin cy 99% v chnh xc nh
hn 0,3 triu ng / thng th cn kho st ti thiu bao nhiu nhn vin?
c) Nhng nhn vin c mc thu nhp trn 18 triu ng / thng l c thu nhp cao (gi s c phn phi
chun). Vi tin cy 98%, hy c lng mc thu nhp ca 1 nhn vin c thu nhp cao?
d) C ngi ni t l nhn vin c thu nhp cao cng ty A l 13%, vi mc ngha 1% c nhn xt g v li
ni trn?
Cu 3. Trong kho c rt nhiu sn phm ca x nghip A, trng lng X (kg) ca cc sn phm ny l bin
nhin. Cn ngu nhin 1 s sn phm loi ny, c kt qu:
X (kg) 0,80,85 0,850,9 0,90,95 0,951,0 1,01,05 1,051,1 1,11,15
S sn phm 5 10 20 30 15 10 10
a) C ngi ni rng nh p dng k thut mi lm trng lng sn phm ny t n hn 1kg. Vi mc
ngha 5%, c nhn xt g v li ni trn?
b) Cc sn phm c trng lng X > 1,05kg l loi 1 (gi s c phn phi chun). Vi tin cy 98%, hy
c lng trng lng ca cc sn phm loi 1.
c) Nu mun m bo tin cy ca c lng t l cc sn phm loi 1 l 80% v chnh xc nh hn 3%
th cn phi cn ti thiu bao nhiu sn phm?
d) Gi s trong kho c ln 1000 sn phm ca x nghip B. Ly ngu nhin t kho ra 100 sn phm th thy
c 9 sn phm ca x nghip B.
Hy c lng s lng sn phm ca x nghip A c trong kho vi tin cy 90%?
Cu 4. Ch tiu cht lng X (gram) ca 1 loi sn phm l bin ngu nhin. Kim tra ngu nhin 1 s sn
phm loi ny, c kt qu:
240; 200; 260; 220; 200; 280; 260; 260; 240; 260;
280; 240; 260; 220; 240; 240; 240; 260; 240; 220;
Trang 57
280; 260; 280; 260; 280; 280; 240; 260; 240; 220;
280; 260; 260; 220; 260; 260; 260; 260; 240; 240;
220; 260; 240; 220; 240; 240; 240; 200; 240; 260.
a) Cc sn phm c ch tiu X < 240gr l sn phm loi 2 (gi s c phn phi chun). C ti liu ni rng
trung bnh ch tiu X ca cc sn phm loi 2 l 220gr, vi mc ngha 2% c nhn xt g v ti liu ny?
b) Cho bit ch tiu Y ca sn phm ny tha Y = 0,4X + 0,35. Vi tin cy 97%, hy c lng trung bnh
ca ch tiu Y?
Cu 5*. Kim tra ngu nhin mt s sn phm ca x nghip A v chiu di X (cm) v hm lng cht Y
(n v tnh l %), c kt qu:
Y
X

8

10

12

14

16
100 5 5
110 4 6 7
120 5 9 8
130 4 6 9
140 5 7
a) Gi 1m sn phm ny l 30 ngn ng. Vi tin cy 98%, hy c lng gi trung bnh ca sn phm x
nghip A?
b) Cc sn phm c X 110cm v Y 12% l loi 2 (gi s c phn phi chun). Nu cho rng cc sn
phm loi 2 c ch tiu Y trung bnh l 10% th vi 5% = c th chp nhn c khng?
c) Nu mun c lng t l sn phm loi 2 vi chnh xc nh hn 3% vi tin cy 95% th cn phi kim
tra ti thiu bao nhiu sn phm?
Cu 6. Kim tra ngu nhin s go bn ra hng ngy mt ca hng, c kt qu:
S go bn ra (kg) 120 130 150 160 180 190 210 220
S ngy bn 2 9 12 25 30 20 13 4
a) Ch ca hng cho rng nu trung bnh mi ngy bn ra khng qu 150kg go th tt nht l ngh bn. T s
liu trn, vi mc ngha 5% ca hng nn quyt nh th no?
b) Nhng ngy bn c trn 200kg l nhng ngy cao im. Hy c lng t l ngy cao im vi tin
cy 99%?
c) c lng t l ngy cao im vi chnh xc nh hn 5% th tin cy ti a l bao nhiu?
d) Gi thit s go bn c trong ngy c phn phi chun v gi go trung bnh l 8000/kg. Vi tin cy
99%, hy c lng trung bnh s tin bn go ca ca hng trong nhng ngy cao im?
Cu 7. Kim tra ngu nhin s ko X(kg) bn c hng ngy mt siu th, c kt qu:
X(kg) 0 50 50100 100150 150200 200250 250300 300350
S ngy 9 23 27 30 25 20 5
a) Bng cch thay i mu bao b v giy gi ko, ngi ta thy s ko bn c trung bnh trong ngy siu
th l 200kg. Vi mc ngha 5%, cho nhn xt v s thay i ny?
b) c lng s ko trung bnh bn c trong 1 ngy siu th vi chnh xc nh hn 10kg v tin
cy l 97% th cn kim tra ti thiu bao nhiu ngy?
c) Nhng ngy bn c trn 250kg l nhng ngy cao im. Hy c lng t l ngy cao im vi tin
cy 88%?
d) Gi thit s ko bn c trong ngy c phn phi chun v gi ko trung bnh l 56000/kg. Vi tin
cy 99%, hy c lng trung bnh s tin bn ko ca siu th trong nhng ngy cao im?
Cu 8. Theo di s pht trin chiu cao X(dm) ca cy bch n trng trn t phn sau 1 nm tui, c kt
qu:
X(dm) 25 30 30 35 35 40 40 45 45 50 50 55 55 60
S cy 5 20 25 30 30 23 14
a) Bit chiu cao trung bnh ca bch n sau 1 nm tui t khng c phn l 4,5m. Vi mc ngha 5%,
c cn tin hnh khng phn cho bch n khng?
b) c c lng chiu cao ca cy bch n trn vi chnh xc nh hn 2dm th m bo tin cy ti
a l bao nhiu?
c) Nhng cy bch n thp hn 3,5m l cy chm ln. Hy c lng chiu cao trung bnh ca cy bch n
chm ln (gi s c phn phi chun) vi tin cy 98%?
Cu 9*. nghin cu s pht trin ca 1 loi cy lm giy, ngi ta tin hnh o ngu nhin ng knh
X(cm) v chiu cao Y(m) ca mt s cy c bng s liu:
Trang 58
Y
X

2

3

4

5

6

7
20 3 5
22 2 10
24 3 8 14 10
26 4 16 7
28 8 13
a) Nhng cy cao 6m tr ln l cy loi 1. c lng t l cy loi 1 vi tin cy 99%.
b) c lng trung bnh v ng knh (gi s c phn phi chun) ca cy loi 1 vi tin cy 98%.
c) Trc y, chiu cao trung bnh ca loi cy ny l 5,1m. S liu trn ly nhng cy c p dng k
thut chm sc mi. Vi mc ngha 5%, hy cho nhn xt v tc dng ca k thut mi ny?
Cu 10*. Sn phm A c hai ch tiu cht lng l X(%) v Y(kg/mm
2
). Kim tra ngu nhin mt s sn
phm A, kt qu cho bng sau:
X
Y

0 5

5 10

10 15

15 20

20 25
115 125 7
125 135 12 8 10
135 145 20 15 2
145 155 19 16 9 5
155 165 8 3
a) Gi s trung bnh tiu chun ca ch tiu Y l 120kg/mm
2
, cho nhn xt v sn phm A vi 5% = ?
b) Sn phm c ch tiu X t 15% tr ln l loi 1 (gi s c phn phi chun). c lng t l v ch tiu X
ca sn phm loi 1 vi tin cy 99%?
c) c c lng trung bnh ch tiu Y vi chnh xc l 0,6kg/mm
2
th m bo tin cy l bao nhiu?
Cu 11*. Quan st chiu cao Y(cm) v tui X(nm) ca mt s thanh thiu nin, c bng s liu:
X
Y

15

17

19

21

23
145 150 5
150 155 12 11
155 160 14 8 6
160 165 10 17
165 170 15 4 7
170 175 12
a) c lng chiu cao ca nhng ngi 21 tui (gi s c phn phi chun) vi tin cy 99%.
b) Nhng ngi cao hn 1,65m l ngi kh cao. c lng t l nhng ngi kh cao vi tin cy 95%?
c) Mt ti liu c ni rng chiu cao trung bnh ca thanh thiu nin trong tui trn l 153,5cm. Vi mc
ngha 3%, hy cho kt lun v ti liu ny?
Cu 12*. Theo di lng phn bn X(kg/ha) v nng sut Y(t/ha) ca mt loi cy trng trn mt s tha
rung (c cng din tch 1 ha), c bng s liu:
X
Y

120

140

160

180

200
20 24 5 4
24 28 7 10 5
28 32 15 20 12
32 36 7 9 6
a) Nng sut di 30 t/ha l nng sut thp. c lng t l cc tha rung c nng sut thp vi tin cy
92%.
b) c lng nng sut (gi s c phn phi chun) ca nhng tha rung bn phn 180kg/ha vi tin cy
98%.
c) Mt ti liu c ni rng nng sut trung bnh ca loi cy trng ny l 30 t/ha. Vi mc ngha 2%, hy
cho kt lun v ti liu ny?
----------------Ht---------------
ThS. oan Vng Nguyen dvntailieu.wordpress.com Bai tap Trac nghiem Xac suat

Trang 59
MT S BI TP TRC NGHIM
XC SUT

I. XC SUT CA BIN C

Cu 1. C 3 sinh vin A, B v C cng thi mn XSTK.
Gi bin c
i
A : c i sinh vin thi ( 0,1, 2, 3 i = ); C : sinh vin C thi .
Bin c
1
AC l:
A. Sinh vin C thi ; B. Ch c sinh vin C thi ;
C. C 1 sinh vin thi ; D. Sinh vin C thi khng .

Gi bin c
i
A : c i sinh vin thi ( 0,1, 2, 3 i = ); A: sinh vin A thi .
Bin c
2
AA l:
A. Sinh vin A thi hng; B. Ch c sinh vin A thi ;
C. C 2 sinh vin thi ; D. Ch c sinh vinA thi hng.

Gi bin c
i
A : c i sinh vin thi ( 0,1, 2, 3 i = ); B : sinh vin B thi .
Bin c
1
AB l:
A. Sinh vin B thi hng; B. Ch c 1 sinh vin thi ;
C. Sinh vin A hoc C thi ; D. Ch c 1 sinh vin hoc A hoc C thi .

Gi bin c
i
A : c i sinh vin thi ( 0,1, 2, 3 i = ); C : sinh vin C thi .
Bin c
0
AC l:
A. Sinh vin C thi hng; B. Ch c sinh vinC thi hng;
C. C 2 sinh vin thi ; D. C 3 sinh vin thi hng.

Gi bin c
i
Bin c
0
AB l:
A. Sinh vin B thi hng; B. C 2 sinh vin thi ;
C. Sinh vin A hoc C thi ; D. Sinh vin A v C thi .

Gi bin c
i
Hy chn p n ng ?
A.
0 1
AB AB ; B.
1 2
AB A ; C.
0 1
AB AB = ; D.
3 3
AB A .

Cu 7. C 3 sinh vin
1
A ,
2
A ,
3
A cng thi mn XSTK.
Gi bin c
i
A : sinh vin
i
A thi ( 1, 2, 3 i = ); H : c sinh vin thi hng.
Hy chn p n ng ?
A.
1 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3
AH AAA AAA AAA = ; B.
1 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3
AH AAA AAA AAA AAA = ;
C.
1 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3
AH AAA AAA AAA = ; D.
1 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3
AH AAA AAA AAA = .


Trang 60
Cu 8. C 3 sinh vin
1
A ,
2
A ,
3
A cng thi mn XSTK.
Gi bin c
i
A : sinh vin
i
A thi ( 1, 2, 3 i = ); H : 2 sinh vin thi hng trong c
1
A .
Hy chn p n ng ?
A.
1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3
AAA AAA AAA H ; B.
1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3
H AAA AAA AAA = ;
C.
1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3
H AAA AAA AAA = ; D.
1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3
H AAA AAA AAA .

Cu 9. C 3 sinh vin
1
A ,
2
A ,
3
A cng thi mn XSTK.
Gi bin c
i
A : sinh vin
i
A thi ( 1, 2, 3 i = ); H : c 1 sinh vin thi hng.
Hy chn p n ng ?
A.
( ) ( )
1 2 3 1 2
P AAA H P AA H ; B.
( ) ( )
1 2 1 2 3
P AA H P AAA H = ;
C.
( ) ( )
1 2 1 2 3
P AA H P AAA H ; D.
1 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3
AH AAA AAA AAA = .

Cu 10. C 3 sinh vin
1
A ,
2
A ,
3
A cng thi mn XSTK.
Gi bin c
i
A : sinh vin
i
A thi ( 1, 2, 3 i = ); H : c 1 sinh vin thi hng.
Hy chn p n ng ?
A.
1
A H = ; B.
2 3
AA H ; C.
1 2 3
AAA H ; D.
1 2 3
AAA H = .

Cu 11. Mt hp ng 10 qu cu gm: 2 qu mu , 3 qu vng v 5 qu xanh. Chn ngu nhin t hp ra
4 qu cu. Xc sut chn c 1 qu mu , 1 qu vng v 2 qu xanh l:
A. 0, 2857 ; B. 0,1793 ; C. 0,1097 ; D. 0, 0973.

4 qu cu. Xc sut chn c 2 qu mu xanh l:
A. 0, 2894 ; B. 0, 4762; C. 0, 0952; D. 0, 0476.

4 qu cu th thy c 3 qu mu xanh. Xc sut chn c 1 qu mu l:
A. 40%; B. 50%; C. 60%; D. 80%.

4 qu cu th thy c 2 qu mu xanh. Xc sut chn c t nht 1 qu mu l:
A. 40%; B. 70%; C. 26%; D. 28%.

Cu 15. Mt cu th nm ln lt 3 qu bng vo r mt cch c lp vi xc sut vo r tng ng l 0,7; 0,8;
0,9. Bit rng c 2 qu bng vo r. Xc sut qu bng th nht vo r l:
A. 0, 5437 ; B. 0, 5473; C. 0, 4753; D. 0, 4573.

Cu 16. Mt cu th nm ln lt 3 qu bng vo r mt cch c lp vi xc sut vo r tng ng l 0,7; 0,8;
0,9. Bit rng qu bng th nht vo r. Xc sut c 2 qu bng vo r l:
A. 20%; B. 24%; C. 26%; D. 28%.

Cu 17. Mt x th bn ln lt 2 vin n vo mt con th v con th ch cht khi b trng 2 vin n. Xc sut
vin n th nht trng con th l 0,8. Nu vin th nht trng con th th xc sut trng ca vin th hai l 0,7
v nu trt th xc sut trng ca vin th hai l 0,1. Bit rng con th cn sng. Xc sut vin th hai trng
con th l:
A. 0, 0714 ; B. 0, 0741; C. 0, 0455; D. 0, 0271.

Trang 61
Cu 18. Mt trung tm TaiMiHng c t l bnh nhn Tai, Mi, Hng tng ng l 25%, 40%, 35%; t l
bnh nng phi m tng ng l 1%, 2%, 3%. Xc sut chn ngu nhin c mt bnh nhn b bnh Mi
phi m t trung tm ny l:
A. 0, 008 ; B. 0, 021; C. 0, 312; D. 0, 381.

bnh nng phi m tng ng l 1%, 2%, 3%. Xc sut chn ngu nhin c mt bnh nhn phi m t
trung tm ny l:
A. 0, 008 ; B. 0, 021; C. 0, 312; D. 0, 381.

bnh nng phi m tng ng l 1%, 2%, 3%. Chn ngu nhin mt bnh nhn t trung tm ny th c ngi
b m. Xc sut ngi c chn b bnh Mi l:
A. 0, 008 ; B. 0, 021; C. 0, 312; D. 0, 381.

II. BIN NGU NHIN
Cu 1. Cho BNN ri rc X c bng phn phi xc sut:
X 1 0 2 4 5
P 0,15 0,10 0,45 0,05 0,25
Gi tr ca [( 1 2) ( 5)] P X X < = l:
A. 0,9; B. 0,8; C. 0,7; D. 0,6.

X 1 2 3 4
P 0,15 0,25 0,40 0,20
Gi tr k vng ca X l:
A. 2,6; B. 2,8; C. 2,65; D. 1,97 .

X 1 2 3 4
P 0,15 0,25 0,40 0,20
Gi tr phng sai ca X l:
A. 5,3; B. 7,0225; C. 7,95 ; D. 0,9275.

Cu 4. Mt kin hng c 6 sn phm tt v 4 ph phm. Chn ngu nhin t kin hng ra 2 sn phm.
Gi X l s ph phm trong 2 sn phm chn ra. Bng phn phi xc sut ca X l:
A)
X 0 1 2

P
2
15

8
15

1
3

B)
X 0 1 2

P
1
3

8
15

2
15

C)
X 0 1 2

P
1
3

7
15

3
15

D)
X 0 1 2

P
1
3

4
15

2
5

Cu 5. Cho BNN ri rc X c hm phn phi xc sut:
0 1
( ) 0,19 1 2
1 2 .
khi x
F x khi x
khi x
= <
<

Bng phn phi xc sut ca X l:

Trang 62
A)
X 0 1 2
P 0 0,19 0,81
B)
X 0 1 2
P 0,19 0,51 0,3
C)
X 1 2
P 0,29 0,71
D)
X 1 2
P 0,19 0,81

Cu 6. L hng I c 3 sn phm tt v 2 ph phm, l hng II c 2 sn phm tt v 2 ph phm. Chn ngu nhin
t l hng I ra 1 sn phm v b vo l hng II, sau t l hng II chn ngu nhin ra 2 sn phm. Gi X l
s sn phm tt chn c t l hng II. Bng phn phi xc sut ca X l:
A)
X 0 1 2

P
11
50

30
50

9
50

B)
X 0 1 2

P
11
50

9
50

30
50

C)
X 0 1 2

P
9
50

30
50

11
50

D)
X 0 1 2

P
9
50

11
50

30
50

Cu 7. Kin hng I c 3 sn phm tt v 2 ph phm, kin hng II c 2 sn phm tt v 4 ph phm. Chn ngu
nhin t kin hng I ra 1 sn phm v t kin hng II ra 1 sn phm. Gi X l s ph phm chn c. Hm
phn phi xc sut ( ) ( ) F x P X x = < ca X l:
A.
0, 0
1
, 0 1
5
( )
11
, 1 2
15
1, 2
x
x
F x
x
x
<
<
<
B.
0, 0
1
, 0 1
5
( )
11
, 1 2
15
1, 2
x
x
F x
x
x
<
<
<

C.
0, 0
1
, 0 1
5
( )
8
, 1 2
15
1, 2
x
x
F x
x
x
<
<
<
D.
0, 0
1
, 0 1
5
( )
8
, 1 2
15
1, 2
x
x
F x
x
x
<
<
<

Cu 8. Cho BNN lin tc X c hm mt xc sut
2
, [ 1; 2]
( )
3
0, [ 1; 2].
x x
f x
x

Hm phn phi xc sut ( ) ( ) F x P X x = < ca X l:
A.
2
0 1
1
( ) ( 1) 1 2
3
1 2 .
khi x
F x x khi x
khi x
<
<
B.
2
0 1
1
( ) ( 1) 1 2
3
1 2 .
khi x
F x x khi x
khi x
<
= +
<

C.
2
0 1
1
( ) 1 2
3
1 2 .
khi x
F x x khi x
khi x
<
<
D.
2
0 1
1
( ) 1 2
3
1 2 .
khi x
F x x khi x
khi x
= <
<


Trang 63
Cu 9. Bin ngu nhin X c hm mt xc sut
2
3
, ( 2; 2)
( )
16
0, ( 2; 2)
x x
f x
x
.
Gi tr ca
( )
2 5 P Y < vi
2
1 Y X = + l:
A. 0, 3125; B. 0, 4375; C. 0, 875; D. 0, 625.

Cu 10. Theo thng k trung bnh c 1.000 ngi dn tui 40 th sau 1 nm c 996 ngi cn sng. Mt
cng ty bo him nhn th bn bo him 1 nm cho nhng ngi tui ny vi gi 1,5 triu ng, nu
ngi mua bo him cht th s tin bi thng l 300 triu ng. Gi s cng ty bn c 40.000 hp ng
bo him loi ny (mi hp ng ng vi 1 ngi mua bo him) trong 1 nm.
Hi trong 1 nm li nhun trung bnh thu c ca cng ty v loi bo him ny l bao nhiu ?
A. 1,2 t ng; B. 1,5 t ng; C. 12 t ng; D. 15 t ng.

Cu 11. Theo thng k trung bnh c 1.000 ngi i xe my th c 25 ngi b tai nn trong 1 nm. Mt cng ty
bo him bn bo him loi ny cho 20.000 ngi trong 1 nm vi gi 98 ngn ng v mc chi tr khi b tai
nn l 3 triu ng.
Hi trong 1 nm li nhun trung bnh thu c ca cng ty v loi bo him ny l bao nhiu ?
A. 445 triu ng; B. 450 triu ng; C. 455 triu ng; D. 460 triu ng.

Cu 12. Mt ca hng in my bn 1 chic my lnh A th li 850.000 ng nhng nu chic my lnh phi
bo hnh th l 1.000.000 ng. Bit xc sut my lnh A phi bo hnh ca ca hng l 15% p = , tnh mc
li trung bnh khi bn 1 chic my lnh A ?
A. 722.500 ng; B. 675.500 ng; C. 605.500 ng; D. 572.500 ng.

Cu 13. Mt ca hng in my bn 1 chic tivi th li 500.000 ng nhng nu chic tivi phi bo hnh th
l 700.000 ng. Tnh xc sut tivi phi bo hnh ca ca hng mc li trung bnh khi bn 1 chic tivi l
356.000 ng ?
A. 10%; B. 12%; C. 15%; D. 23%.

2
(3 ), 0 3
( )
0, [0; 3]
a x x x
f x
x
.
Gi tr trung bnh ca X l:
A. 1, 2 EX = ; B. 1, 4 EX = ; C. 1, 5 EX = ; D. 2, 4 EX = .

2
(3 ), 0 3
( )
0, [0; 3]
a x x x
f x
x
.
A. 0, 64 VarX = ; B. 1, 5 VarX = ; C. 2, 7 VarX = ; D. 0, 45 VarX = .

2
(3 ), 0 3
( )
0, [0; 3]
a x x x
f x
x
.
Gi tr trung bnh ca Y vi
2
3 Y X = l:
A. 8,1 EY = ; B. 7, 9 EY = ; C. 4, 5 EY = ; D. 5, 4 EY = .
2
(3 ), 0 3
( )
0, [0; 3]
a x x x
f x
x
.
Gi tr phng sai ca Y vi
2
3 Y X = l:
A. 38, 0329 VarY = ; B. 38, 5329 VarY = ; C. 38, 9672 VarY = ; D. 39, 0075 VarY = .

Trang 64
2
(3 ), 0 3
( )
0, [0; 3]
a x x x
f x
x
.
Gi tr ca ModX l:
A. 1, 5 ModX = ; B. 0 ModX = ; C. 1 ModX = ; D. 3 ModX = .

2
(3 ), 0 3
( )
0, [0; 3]
a x x x
f x
x
.
Gi tr ca xc sut (1 2) p P X = < l:
A. 0, 4815 p = ; B. 0, 4915 p = ; C. 0, 5015 p = ; D. 0, 5115 p = .

Cu 20. BNN lin tc X c hm phn phi xc sut
0, 1
1
( ) , 1 3
2
1, 3 .
x
x
F x x
x
= <
<
.
A.
1
4
VarX = ; B.
1
6
VarX = ; C.
1
2
VarX = ; D.
1
3
VarX = .

III. PHN PHI XC SUT THNG DNG
Cu 1. Mt thng bia c 24 chai trong ln 3 chai qu hn s dng. Chn ngu nhin t thng ra 4 chai
bia. Xc sut chn phi t nht 1 chai bia qu hn s dng l:
A. 0, 4123; B. 0, 5868; C. 0, 4368 ; D. 0, 5632.
Cu 2. Ch vn lan nhm 10 chu lan c hoa mu vi 10 chu lan c hoa mu tm (lan cha n hoa).
Mt khch hng chn ngu nhin 7 chu t 20 chu lan . Xc sut khch chn c nhiu hn 5 chu lan c
hoa mu l:
A. 0, 0586; B. 0, 0486; C. 0, 0386; D. 0, 0286.
Cu 3. Ch vn lan nhm 20 chu lan c hoa mu vi 100 chu lan c hoa mu tm (lan cha n hoa).
Mt khch hng chn ngu nhin 15 chu t 120 chu lan . Gi X l s chu lan c hoa mu tm khch chn
c. Gi tr ca EX v VarX l:
A.
36
3,
17
EX VarX = = ; B.
25 135
,
2 68
EX VarX = = ;
C.
25 125
,
2 68
EX VarX = = ; D.
5 125
,
2 68
EX VarX = = .
Cu 4. Mt hiu sch bn 40 cun truyn A, trong c 12 cun in lu. Mt khch hng chn ngu nhin 4
cun truyn A. Hi kh nng cao nht khch chn c bao nhiu cun truyn A khng phi in lu ?
A. 1 cun; B. 2 cun; C. 3 cun; D. 4 cun.
Cu 5. Mt hp cha 100 vin phn trong c 10 vin mu . Hi nu khng nhn vo hp bc ty 1 ln
bao nhiu vin xc sut c 4 vin mu l 0,0272 ?
A. 10 vin; B. 12 vin; C. 14 vin; D. 16 vin.
Cu 6. Xc sut c bnh ca nhng ngi ch khm bnh ti 1 bnh vin l 12%. Khm ln lt 20 ngi ny,
xc sut c t hn 2 ngi b bnh l:
A. 0, 2891 ; B. 0, 7109; C. 0, 3891; D. 0, 6109.
Cu 7. Xc sut c bnh ca nhng ngi ch khm bnh ti 1 bnh vin l 72%. Khm ln lt 61 ngi ny,
hi kh nng cao nht c my ngi b bnh ?
A. 41 ngi; B. 42 ngi; C. 43 ngi; D. 44 ngi.
Cu 8. Mt gia nh nui g mi vi xc sut trng ca mi con g trong 1 ngy l 0,75. trung bnh mi
ngy c nhiu hn 122 con g mi trng th s g ti thiu gia nh phi nui l:
A. 151 con; B. 162 con; C. 163 con; D. 175 con.

Trang 65
Cu 9. Trong mt t x s ngi ta pht hnh 100.000 v trong c 10.000 v trng thng. Hi 1 ngi
mun trng t nht 1 v vi xc sut ln hn 95% th cn phi mua ti thiu bao nhiu v ?
A. 2 v; B. 12 v; C. 27 v; D. 29 v.

Cu 10. Mt trm in thoi trung bnh nhn c 900 cuc gi trong 1 gi. Xc sut trm nhn c ng
32 cuc gi trong 2 pht l:
A. 0, 0659; B. 0, 0481; C. 0, 0963; D. 0, 0624 .

Cu 11. Ti bnh vin A trung bnh 3 gi c 8 ca m. Hi s ca m chc chn nht s xy ra ti bnh vin A
trong 10 gi l bao nhiu ?
A. 25 ca; B. 26 ca; C. 27 ca; D. 28 ca.

Cu 12. Mt bn xe khch trung bnh c 70 xe xut bn trong 1 gi. Xc sut trong 5 pht c t 4 n 6 xe
xut bn l:
A. 0, 2133 ; B. 0, 2792 ; C. 0, 3209; D. 0, 4663.

Cu 13. Cho bin bin ngu nhin (4; 2, 25) X N . Gi tr ca xc sut ( 5, 5) P X > l:
A. 0,1587 ; B. 0, 3413; C. 0,1916 ; D. 0, 2707 .

Cu 14. Thng k im thi X (im) mn XSTK ca sinh vin ti trng i hc A cho thy X l bin ngu
nhin vi (5, 25; 1, 25) X N . T l sinh vin c im thi mn XSTK ca trng A t 4 n 6 im l:
A. 56,71%; B. 68,72%; C. 64,72%; D. 61,72%.

Cu 15. Thi gian X (thng) t lc vay n lc tr tin ca 1 khch hng ti ngn hng A l bin ngu nhin c
phn phi (18; 16) N . Tnh t l khch hng tr tin cho ngn hng A trong khong t 12 n 16 thng ?
A. 24,17%; B. 9,63%; C. 25,17%; D. 10,63%.

Cu 16. Chiu cao ca nam gii trng thnh l bin ngu nhin X (cm) c phn phi (165; 25) N . T l
nam gii trng thnh cao t 1,65m n 1,75m l:
A. 1,6%; B. 42,75%; C. 45,96%; D. 47,73%.

Cu 17. Mt l hng tht ng lnh ng gi nhp khu vi t l b nhim khun l 1,6%. Kim tra ln lt ngu
nhin 2000 gi tht t l hng ny. Tnh xc sut c ng 36 gi tht b nhim khun ?
A. 0,1522; B. 0,2522; C. 0,0922; D. 0,0522.

Cu 18. Trong mt kho la ging c t l ht la lai tp l 2%. Tnh xc sut sao cho khi chn ln lt 1000 ht
la ging trong kho th c t 17 n 19 ht la lai tp ?
A. 0,2492; B. 0,3492; C. 0,0942; D. 0,0342.

Cu 19. Mt khch sn nhn t ch ca 585 khch hng cho 500 phng vo ngy 2/9 v theo kinh nghim ca
nhng nm trc cho thy c 15% khch t ch nhng khng n. Bit mi khch t 1 phng, tnh xc sut
c t 494 n 499 khch t ch v n nhn phng vo ngy 2/9 ?
A. 0,0273; B. 0,1273; C. 0,2273; D. 0,3273.

Cu 20. T l thanh nin tt nghip THPT ca qun A l 75%. Trong t tuyn qun i ngha v qun s nm
nay, qun A gi ngu nhin 325 thanh nin. Tnh xc sut c t 80 n 84 thanh nin b loi do cha tt
nghip THPT ?
A. 13,79%; B. 20,04%; C. 26,32%; D. 28,69%.
Ht..
66
Bng A: gi tr hm mt chun
2
2
1
( )
2
z
f z e
=
x 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.09
0.0 0.3989 0.3989 0.3989 0.3988 0.3986 0.3984 0.3982 0.3980 0.3977 0.3973
0.1 0.3970 0.3965 0.3961 0.3956 0.3951 0.3945 0.3939 0.3932 0.3925 0.3918
0.2 0.3910 0.3902 0.3894 0.3885 0.3876 0.3867 0.3857 0.3847 0.3836 0.3825
0.3 0.3814 0.3802 0.3790 0.3778 0.3765 0.3752 0.3739 0.3725 0.3712 0.3697
0.4 0.3683 0.3668 0.3653 0.3637 0.3621 0.3605 0.3589 0.3572 0.3555 0.3538
0.5 0.3521 0.3503 0.3485 0.3467 0.3448 0.3429 0.3410 0.3391 0.3372 0.3352
0.6 0.3332 0.3312 0.3292 0.3271 0.3251 0.3230 0.3209 0.3187 0.3166 0.3144
0.7 0.3123 0.3101 0.3079 0.3056 0.3034 0.3011 0.2989 0.2966 0.2943 0.2920
0.8 0.2897 0.2874 0.2850 0.2827 0.2803 0.2780 0.2756 0.2732 0.2709 0.2685
0.9 0.2661 0.2637 0.2613 0.2589 0.2565 0.2541 0.2516 0.2492 0.2468 0.2444
1.0 0.2420 0.2396 0.2371 0.2347 0.2323 0.2299 0.2275 0.2251 0.2227 0.2203
1.1 0.2179 0.2155 0.2131 0.2107 0.2083 0.2059 0.2036 0.2012 0.1989 0.1965
1.2 0.1942 0.1919 0.1895 0.1872 0.1849 0.1826 0.1804 0.1781 0.1758 0.1736
1.3 0.1714 0.1691 0.1669 0.1647 0.1626 0.1604 0.1582 0.1561 0.1539 0.1518
1.4 0.1497 0.1476 0.1456 0.1435 0.1415 0.1394 0.1374 0.1354 0.1334 0.1315
1.5 0.1295 0.1276 0.1257 0.1238 0.1219 0.1200 0.1182 0.1163 0.1145 0.1127
1.6 0.1109 0.1092 0.1074 0.1057 0.1040 0.1023 0.1006 0.0989 0.0973 0.0957
1.7 0.0940 0.0925 0.0909 0.0893 0.0878 0.0863 0.0848 0.0833 0.0818 0.0804
1.8 0.0790 0.0775 0.0761 0.0748 0.0734 0.0721 0.0707 0.0694 0.0681 0.0669
1.9 0.0656 0.0644 0.0632 0.0620 0.0608 0.0596 0.0584 0.0573 0.0562 0.0551
2.0 0.0540 0.0529 0.0519 0.0508 0.0498 0.0488 0.0478 0.0468 0.0459 0.0449
2.1 0.0440 0.0431 0.0422 0.0413 0.0404 0.0396 0.0387 0.0379 0.0371 0.0363
2.2 0.0355 0.0347 0.0339 0.0332 0.0325 0.0317 0.0310 0.0303 0.0297 0.0290
2.3 0.0283 0.0277 0.0270 0.0264 0.0258 0.0252 0.0246 0.0241 0.0235 0.0229
2.4 0.0224 0.0219 0.0213 0.0208 0.0203 0.0198 0.0194 0.0189 0.0184 0.0180
2.5 0.0175 0.0171 0.0167 0.0163 0.0158 0.0154 0.0151 0.0147 0.0143 0.0139
2.6 0.0136 0.0132 0.0129 0.0126 0.0122 0.0119 0.0116 0.0113 0.0110 0.0107
2.7 0.0104 0.0101 0.0099 0.0096 0.0093 0.0091 0.0088 0.0086 0.0084 0.0081
2.8 0.0079 0.0077 0.0075 0.0073 0.0071 0.0069 0.0067 0.0065 0.0063 0.0061
2.9 0.0060 0.0058 0.0056 0.0055 0.0053 0.0051 0.0050 0.0048 0.0047 0.0046
3.0 0.0044 0.0043 0.0042 0.0040 0.0039 0.0038 0.0037 0.0036 0.0035 0.0034
3.1 0.0033 0.0032 0.0031 0.0030 0.0029 0.0028 0.0027 0.0026 0.0025 0.0025
3.2 0.0024 0.0023 0.0022 0.0022 0.0021 0.0020 0.0020 0.0019 0.0018 0.0018
3.3 0.0017 0.0017 0.0016 0.0016 0.0015 0.0015 0.0014 0.0014 0.0013 0.0013
3.4 0.0012 0.0012 0.0012 0.0011 0.0011 0.0010 0.0010 0.0010 0.0009 0.0009
3.5 0.0009 0.0008 0.0008 0.0008 0.0008 0.0007 0.0007 0.0007 0.0007 0.0006
3.6 0.0006 0.0006 0.0006 0.0005 0.0005 0.0005 0.0005 0.0005 0.0005 0.0004
3.7 0.0004 0.0004 0.0004 0.0004 0.0004 0.0004 0.0003 0.0003 0.0003 0.0003
3.8 0.0003 0.0003 0.0003 0.0003 0.0003 0.0002 0.0002 0.0002 0.0002 0.0002
3.9 0.0002 0.0002 0.0002 0.0002 0.0002 0.0002 0.0002 0.0002 0.0001 0.0001

67
Bng B: tch phn Laplace

0
) ( ( )
x
f z x dz =

x 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.09
0.0 0.0000 0.0040 0.0080 0.0120 0.0160 0.0199 0.0239 0.0279 0.0319 0.0359
0.1 0.0398 0.0438 0.0478 0.0517 0.0557 0.0596 0.0636 0.0675 0.0714 0.0753
0.2 0.0793 0.0832 0.0871 0.0910 0.0948 0.0987 0.1026 0.1064 0.1103 0.1141
0.3 0.1179 0.1217 0.1255 0.1293 0.1331 0.1368 0.1406 0.1443 0.1480 0.1517
0.4 0.1554 0.1591 0.1628 0.1664 0.1700 0.1736 0.1772 0.1808 0.1844 0.1879
0.5 0.1915 0.1950 0.1985 0.2019 0.2054 0.2088 0.2123 0.2157 0.2190 0.2224
0.6 0.2257 0.2291 0.2324 0.2357 0.2389 0.2422 0.2454 0.2486 0.2517 0.2549
0.7 0.2580 0.2611 0.2642 0.2673 0.2704 0.2734 0.2764 0.2794 0.2823 0.2852
0.8 0.2881 0.2910 0.2939 0.2967 0.2995 0.3023 0.3051 0.3078 0.3106 0.3133
0.9 0.3159 0.3186 0.3212 0.3238 0.3264 0.3289 0.3315 0.3340 0.3365 0.3389
1.0 0.3413 0.3438 0.3461 0.3485 0.3508 0.3531 0.3554 0.3577 0.3599 0.3621
1.1 0.3643 0.3665 0.3686 0.3708 0.3729 0.3749 0.3770 0.3790 0.3810 0.3830
1.2 0.3849 0.3869 0.3888 0.3907 0.3925 0.3944 0.3962 0.3980 0.3997 0.4015
1.3 0.4032 0.4049 0.4066 0.4082 0.4099 0.4115 0.4131 0.4147 0.4162 0.4177
1.4 0.4192 0.4207 0.4222 0.4236 0.4251 0.4265 0.4279 0.4292 0.4306 0.4319
1.5 0.4332 0.4345 0.4357 0.4370 0.4382 0.4394 0.4406 0.4418 0.4429 0.4441
1.6 0.4452 0.4463 0.4474 0.4484 0.4495 0.4505 0.4515 0.4525 0.4535 0.4545
1.7 0.4554 0.4564 0.4573 0.4582 0.4591 0.4599 0.4608 0.4616 0.4625 0.4633
1.8 0.4641 0.4649 0.4656 0.4664 0.4671 0.4678 0.4686 0.4693 0.4699 0.4706
1.9 0.4713 0.4719 0.4726 0.4732 0.4738 0.4744 0.4750 0.4756 0.4761 0.4767
2.0 0.4772 0.4778 0.4783 0.4788 0.4793 0.4798 0.4803 0.4808 0.4812 0.4817
2.1 0.4821 0.4826 0.4830 0.4834 0.4838 0.4842 0.4846 0.4850 0.4854 0.4857
2.2 0.4861 0.4864 0.4868 0.4871 0.4875 0.4878 0.4881 0.4884 0.4887 0.4890
2.3 0.4893 0.4896 0.4898 0.4901 0.4904 0.4906 0.4909 0.4911 0.4913 0.4916
2.4 0.4918 0.4920 0.4922 0.4925 0.4927 0.4929 0.4931 0.4932 0.4934 0.4936
2.5 0.4938 0.4940 0.4941 0.4943 0.4945 0.4946 0.4948 0.4949 0.4951 0.4952
2.6 0.4953 0.4955 0.4956 0.4957 0.4959 0.4960 0.4961 0.4962 0.4963 0.4964
2.7 0.4965 0.4966 0.4967 0.4968 0.4969 0.4970 0.4971 0.4972 0.4973 0.4974
2.8 0.4974 0.4975 0.4976 0.4977 0.4977 0.4978 0.4979 0.4979 0.4980 0.4981
2.9 0.4981 0.4982 0.4982 0.4983 0.4984 0.4984 0.4985 0.4985 0.4986 0.4986
3.0 0.4987 0.4987 0.4987 0.4988 0.4988 0.4989 0.4989 0.4989 0.4990 0.4990
3.1 0.4990 0.4991 0.4991 0.4991 0.4992 0.4992 0.4992 0.4992 0.4993 0.4993
3.2 0.4993 0.4993 0.4994 0.4994 0.4994 0.4994 0.4994 0.4995 0.4995 0.4995
3.3 0.4995 0.4995 0.4995 0.4996 0.4996 0.4996 0.4996 0.4996 0.4996 0.4997
3.4 0.4997 0.4997 0.4997 0.4997 0.4997 0.4997 0.4997 0.4997 0.4997 0.4998
3.5 0.4998 0.4998 0.4998 0.4998 0.4998 0.4998 0.4998 0.4998 0.4998 0.4998
3.6 0.4998 0.4998 0.4999 0.4999 0.4999 0.4999 0.4999 0.4999 0.4999 0.4999
3.7 0.4999 0.4999 0.4999 0.4999 0.4999 0.4999 0.4999 0.4999 0.4999 0.4999
3.8 0.4999 0.4999 0.4999 0.4999 0.4999 0.4999 0.4999 0.4999 0.4999 0.4999
3.9 0.5000 0.5000 0.5000 0.5000 0.5000 0.5000 0.5000 0.5000 0.5000 0.5000
68
Bng C: xc sut Student
\ n 0.95 0.90 0.80 0.70 0.60 0.50 0.40 0.30 0.20 0.10 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.01
1 0.079 0.158 0.325 0.510 0.727 1.000 1.376 1.963 3.078 6.314 12.706 15.895 21.205 31.821 63.657
2 0.071 0.142 0.289 0.445 0.617 0.816 1.061 1.386 1.886 2.920 4.303 4.849 5.643 6.965 9.925
3 0.068 0.137 0.277 0.424 0.584 0.765 0.978 1.250 1.638 2.353 3.182 3.482 3.896 4.541 5.841
4 0.067 0.134 0.271 0.414 0.569 0.741 0.941 1.190 1.533 2.132 2.776 2.999 3.298 3.747 4.604
5 0.066 0.132 0.267 0.408 0.559 0.727 0.920 1.156 1.476 2.015 2.571 2.757 3.003 3.365 4.032
6 0.065 0.131 0.265 0.404 0.553 0.718 0.906 1.134 1.440 1.943 2.447 2.612 2.829 3.143 3.707
7 0.065 0.130 0.263 0.402 0.549 0.711 0.896 1.119 1.415 1.895 2.365 2.517 2.715 2.998 3.499
8 0.065 0.130 0.262 0.399 0.546 0.706 0.889 1.108 1.397 1.860 2.306 2.449 2.634 2.896 3.355
9 0.064 0.129 0.261 0.398 0.543 0.703 0.883 1.100 1.383 1.833 2.262 2.398 2.574 2.821 3.250
10 0.064 0.129 0.260 0.397 0.542 0.700 0.879 1.093 1.372 1.812 2.228 2.359 2.527 2.764 3.169
11 0.064 0.129 0.260 0.396 0.540 0.697 0.876 1.088 1.363 1.796 2.201 2.328 2.491 2.718 3.106
12 0.064 0.128 0.259 0.395 0.539 0.695 0.873 1.083 1.356 1.782 2.179 2.303 2.461 2.681 3.055
13 0.064 0.128 0.259 0.394 0.538 0.694 0.870 1.079 1.350 1.771 2.160 2.282 2.436 2.650 3.012
14 0.064 0.128 0.258 0.393 0.537 0.692 0.868 1.076 1.345 1.761 2.145 2.264 2.415 2.624 2.977
15 0.064 0.128 0.258 0.393 0.536 0.691 0.866 1.074 1.341 1.753 2.131 2.249 2.397 2.602 2.947
16 0.064 0.128 0.258 0.392 0.535 0.690 0.865 1.071 1.337 1.746 2.120 2.235 2.382 2.583 2.921
17 0.064 0.128 0.257 0.392 0.534 0.689 0.863 1.069 1.333 1.740 2.110 2.224 2.368 2.567 2.898
18 0.064 0.127 0.257 0.392 0.534 0.688 0.862 1.067 1.330 1.734 2.101 2.214 2.356 2.552 2.878
19 0.064 0.127 0.257 0.391 0.533 0.688 0.861 1.066 1.328 1.729 2.093 2.205 2.346 2.539 2.861
20 0.063 0.127 0.257 0.391 0.533 0.687 0.860 1.064 1.325 1.725 2.086 2.197 2.336 2.528 2.845
21 0.063 0.127 0.257 0.391 0.532 0.686 0.859 1.063 1.323 1.721 2.080 2.189 2.328 2.518 2.831
22 0.063 0.127 0.256 0.390 0.532 0.686 0.858 1.061 1.321 1.717 2.074 2.183 2.320 2.508 2.819
23 0.063 0.127 0.256 0.390 0.532 0.685 0.858 1.060 1.319 1.714 2.069 2.177 2.313 2.500 2.807
24 0.063 0.127 0.256 0.390 0.531 0.685 0.857 1.059 1.318 1.711 2.064 2.172 2.307 2.492 2.797
25 0.063 0.127 0.256 0.390 0.531 0.684 0.856 1.058 1.316 1.708 2.060 2.167 2.301 2.485 2.787
26 0.063 0.127 0.256 0.390 0.531 0.684 0.856 1.058 1.315 1.706 2.056 2.162 2.296 2.479 2.779
27 0.063 0.127 0.256 0.389 0.531 0.684 0.855 1.057 1.314 1.703 2.052 2.158 2.291 2.473 2.771
28 0.063 0.127 0.256 0.389 0.530 0.683 0.855 1.056 1.313 1.701 2.048 2.154 2.286 2.467 2.763
29 0.063 0.127 0.256 0.389 0.530 0.683 0.854 1.055 1.311 1.699 2.045 2.150 2.282 2.462 2.756
30 0.063 0.127 0.256 0.389 0.530 0.683 0.854 1.055 1.310 1.697 2.042 2.147 2.278 2.457 2.750
40 0.063 0.126 0.255 0.388 0.529 0.681 0.851 1.050 1.303 1.684 2.021 2.123 2.250 2.423 2.704
50 0.063 0.126 0.255 0.388 0.528 0.679 0.849 1.047 1.299 1.676 2.009 2.109 2.234 2.403 2.678
60 0.063 0.126 0.254 0.387 0.527 0.679 0.848 1.045 1.296 1.671 2.000 2.099 2.223 2.390 2.660

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H Cng nghip Tp.

1. BIN C NGU NHIN

Trong mt php th, h gm n bin c { }

Chng Chng 2. 2. Bi Bi n n ng ng u u nhin nhin

1. BIN NGU NHIN V HM MT

Chng Chng 2. 2. Bi Bi n n ng ng u u nhin nhin

H Cng nghip Tp.HCM

= ; .100% 15, 06%

Chng Chng 3. 3. Phn Phn ph ph i i x x c c su su t t thng thng d d ng ng

1. PHN PHI SIU BI

H Cng nghip Tp.HCM

H Cng nghip Tp.HCM

Chng Chng 3. 3. Phn Phn ph ph i i x x c c su su t t thng thng d d ng ng

Chng Chng 4. Vector 4. Vector ng ng u u nhin nhin

Khi nim vector ngu nhin

Chng Chng 4. Vector 4. Vector ng ng u u nhin nhin

1. MT S LOI HI T TRONG XC SUT

Chng Chng 5. 5. nh nh l l gi gi i i h h n n trong trong x x c c su su t t

Chng Chng 6. 6. M M u u th th ng ng k k & & c c l l ng ng tham tham s s

Chng Chng 6. 6. M M u u th th ng ng k k & & c c l l ng ng tham tham s s

Gii phng trnh:

= (tra bng B).

VD 13. Kho st 16 sinh vin v im trung bnh ca

1. KHI NIM V KIM NH

th ta chp nhn gi thuyt H ;

Chng Chng 7. 7. Ki Ki m m nh nh Gi Gi thuy thuy t t Th Th ng ng k k

th ta chp nhn H , ngha l

th ta chp nhn gi thuyt H ;

th chp nhn H , ngha l

H Cng nghip Tp.HCM

(th ln lt tng gi tr m cho n khi tm c m = 7).

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