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BI TP LN MN THY VN CNG TRNH

BI TP LN MN THY VN CNG TRNH


BI S 1:DNG CHY NM
1 Chun dng chy nm bnh qun nhiu nm Qn c tnh theo trnh t sau y :
A/ Lu lng nc bnh qun nhiu nm Qn ( m/s) l lng nc tnh bng m , chy qua mt
ct ca ra ca lu vc trong mt n v thi gian (mt ngy ), ly trung bnh trong nhiu nm. Cn
phn bit gia lu lng nc trung bnh trong mt khong thi gian (v d mt ngy m, mt thng,
mt nm ) tnh bng tng lng nc chy qua mt ct chia u cho khong thi gian ly trung
bnh. Chui quan trc dng tnh chun dng chy phi gm nhm cc nm nhiu nc, t nc v
trung bnh iu kin ny nhiu khi b vi phm do s nm quan trc c ti v tr cng trnh khng
di, do chc chn nh hng ti chnh xc ca kt qu tnh chun dng chy. Trong bi tp ny
chng ta tnh lu lng nc bnh qun nhiu nm Qn theo cng thc :

Trong :

Qn=
(1)
Qn : lu lng nc bnh qun tng nm
n : s nm quan trc

NGUYN QUC KHNH_LP:50TH1_MSSV:3795.50

BI TP LN MN THY VN CNG TRNH

Trm :Sn ty
TT
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26

Nm
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981

I
906
919
940
916
1260
1210
1890
853
770
1320
1500
1420
1550
1240
1020
1250
1260
1630
1450
1360
1160
1290
1390
1290
1060
1150

Sng:
II
741
721
1090
777
1130
1160
1250
769
730
1010
1140
1140
1300
922
921
1130
987
1400
1180
942
1330
1110
973
1220
1020
977

III
607
744
709
1120
887
1190
921
774
629
874
790
870
1210
747
643
875
785
1670
903
756
873
915
893
915
728
908

Hng
IV
749
1190
622
1280
661
1440
1010
682
575
1310
892
988
1680
784
856
1070
974
1520
1000
1340
1080
1180
837
920
734
1570

V
2910
1140
843
2520
970
1370
1640
816
593
1470
1100
1480
2260
1400
2590
2180
1840
3010
1690
2550
2870
1520
3110
1560
1370
3580

F(km2)136000
VI
6420
6130
3420
5510
3490
5210
5930
2160
795
5590
6710
2930
4690
3190
4490
5910
3700
6040
4560
7090
4420
2020
6780
4500
2010
5830

NGUYN QUC KHNH_LP:50TH1_MSSV:3795.50

VII
7280
9860
7990
6600
7500
4840
8030
6390
3760
7360
12200
5110
10200
6190
12100
10900
7320
9360
7300
6240
5820
9030
7320
5980
7570
7930

VIII
11200
5830
9980
9410
9350
11000
7720
7700
4860
5950
9160
8690
10500
14800
9370
18800
784
10500
7100
5430
9510
8160
8170
8650
8430
9800

IX
5950
4000
6390
6070
6620
6560
4460
4430
2920
3670
8530
5450
8080
5220
6780
9360
6720
9840
7630
6070
5420
3940
8380
9670
6740
6920

X
2910
3460
3210
3820
3550
5290
3250
7320
2680
4310
5090
3880
5170
2550
3420
4440
5000
4410
4670
3520
3260
3520
5130
3310
3120
4640

XI
1710
1620
1700
2190
2090
3520
1800
4870
2520
4480
2990
2660
3680
2250
2020
2730
3400
3150
2340
2500
3180
2260
2310
1810
1710
3980

XII
1110
1100
1090
1350
1790
2170
1200
2010
1470
1090
1810
1960
1800
1160
2600
1580
2990
1940
1480
1520
1610
1400
1470
1220
1230
2040

Qi(m3/s)
3541.0833
3059.5
3165.3333
3463.5833
3274.8333
3746.6667
3258.4167
3231.1667
1858.5
3202.8333
4326
3048.1667
4343.3333
3371.0833
3900.8333
5018.75
2980
4539.1667
3441.9167
3276.5
3377.75
3028.75
3896.9167
3420.4167
2976.8333
4110.4167
90858.75

BI TP LN MN THY VN CNG TRNH

Ta c:Qn = = 3494,57 m /s
Sai s ly mu tng i c tnh theo cng thc :
= x 100%
Tnh ton C theo bng sau ( Bng 2) :
TT
1
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23

Nm
2
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978

Qi(m3/s)
3
3541.083
3059.5
3165.333
3463.583
3274.833
3746.667
3258.417
3231.167
1858.5
3202.833
4326
3048.167
4343.333
3371.083
3900.833
5018.75
2980
4539.167
3441.917
3276.5
3377.75
3028.75
3896.917

Ki=Qi/Qn

Ki-1

1.01331
0.875501
0.905786
0.991133
0.937121
1.07214
0.932423
0.924625
0.531825
0.916517
1.237921
0.872258
1.242881
0.964663
1.116256
1.436157
0.852752
1.29892
0.984933
0.937597
0.966571
0.866702
1.115135

0.01331
-0.1245
-0.09421
-0.00887
-0.06288
0.07214
-0.06758
-0.07538
-0.46817
-0.08348
0.237921
-0.12774
0.242881
-0.03534
0.116256
0.436157
-0.14725
0.29892
-0.01507
-0.0624
-0.03343
-0.1333
0.115135

NGUYN QUC KHNH_LP:50TH1_MSSV:3795.50

(2)

(Ki - 1)2
6

0.000177
0.0155
0.008876
7.87E-05
0.003954
0.005204
0.004567
0.005682
0.219183
0.006969
0.056606
0.016318
0.058991
0.001249
0.013515
0.190233
0.021683
0.089353
0.000227
0.003894
0.001118
0.017769
0.013256

BI TP LN MN THY VN CNG TRNH

24
25
26

C =

1979
1980
1981

3420.417
2976.833
4110.417
90858.75

0.97878
0.851845
1.17623

-0.02122
-0.14815
0.17623

0.00045
0.021948
0.031057
0.807858

= 0,179 ( v n = 26 <30 ) (3)

Thay Cv vo pt (2) ta c: =

*100% = 3,51%

Sai s tuyt i lu lng trung bnh trong n nm l:


=

= 122,68 m3/s

V < 5% nn chun dng chy Q0 = Qn = 3494,57


B/ M un dng chy M (l/s/km) : l lng nc tnh bng lt chy trong

mt giy, t mt km

din tch lu vc, c xc nh theo cng thc :


M=

(4)

Q = (5)
C th M =

=25,69

C/ Tng lng dng chy bnh qun nhiu nm W (m/nm) ca mt lu vc l th tch nc


chy t lu vc qua mt ct tnh ton trong mt nm.
W=Q.T

(5)

NGUYN QUC KHNH_LP:50TH1_MSSV:3795.50

BI TP LN MN THY VN CNG TRNH

Trong : T : s giy trong mt nm. T = 86400 x 365 = 31536 x 10 (s)


Tng lng dng chy c th tnh t m un dng chy theo CT :
W = x 31536 x 10 = M x F x 31536 = 1,1.1011 km/nm (6)
D/ su dng chy trung bnh nhiu nm y (mm) : l su lp nc nu ton b tng
lng dng chy trong nm c ri u trn ton b din tch lu vc.
su dng chy trong khong thi gian bt k tnh theo cng thc :
y=

(7)

Trong y : su dng chy nm


F : din tch lu vc
86,4 : h s chuyn i n v
n : s ngy m
su dng chy trong mt thng c tnh theo cng thc :
y=

(8)

Trong Q : lu lng bnh qun thng


T : s giy trong mt thng
F : din tch lu vc
su dng chy trung bnh nhiu nm c tnh theo cng thc:
y = = = = 808,82 mm/nm
2 H s dng chy bnh qun nhiu nm l t s gia su dng chy trong thi k nhiu
nm v lng ma bnh qun trong thi k .
NGUYN QUC KHNH_LP:50TH1_MSSV:3795.50

BI TP LN MN THY VN CNG TRNH

(9)

Nhn xt : H s dng chy dao ng trong khong t 0 n 0,1 ph thuc nhiu yu t khc
nhau nh bc hi, iu kin b mt lu vc v yu t a l, a cht, t ai khc nhau. H s dng
chy cng ln th t l sinh dng chy mt t ma cng ln lng tn tht trn lu vc nh, l sinh
ra s ln vi cng mt lng ma, kh nng gy ngp lt cao (ng bng) v tim n l qut, l ng
(min ni).
BI S 2 : DNG CHY NM THIT K
1 Xy dng ng tn sut kinh nghim
Cc dao ng ca dng chy nm theo thi gian chu nh hng tc ng ca nhiu yu t khc
nhau, v vy khi nghin cu cc dao ng ny, cn s dng cc phng php thng k ton hc. Nu
lit s liu quan trc di, lng dng chy nm thit k c xc nh theo phng ng tn xut.
Tn sut p ca dng chy nm l s nm trung bnh, m nhng nm dng chy nm s bng
hoc ln hn mt gi tr cho trc no (s nm c th hin bng phn trm hoc phn n v).
ng tn sut (hay ng xc sut ly tch) l ng cong tch phn cho ta bit tn sut ly
tch (bng phn trm hoc phn n v) ca mt i lng thy vn no trong ton b dy s liu.
Khi tnh ton cc thng s ng tn sut, cc gi tr i lng thy vn c xem nh mt dy thng
k v c sp xp thnh dy gim dn.

NGUYN QUC KHNH_LP:50TH1_MSSV:3795.50

BI TP LN MN THY VN CNG TRNH

ng tn sut c th c xy dng di dng ng kinh nghim (da trn s liu quan trc)
v di dng ng l lun (da trn l thuyt xc sut thng k).
a) Tnh tun sut xut hin ca cc im kinh nghim
ng tn sut kinh nghim ca dng chy nm c dng theo tn sut ly tch p% ca cc
im kinh nghim, tnh cho mi s hng ca dy s liu cc gi tr dng chy nm theo cng thc
Chgap:
p=
Trong :

x 100%

(10)

m : s th t ca s hng trong chui s liu c xp thnh dy gim


dn.
n : tng s s hng trong dy s liu.

Ta c bng tnh cc thng s ca ng tn sut theo phng php m men ti trm Sn ty


,Sng Hng,thi k:1956_1981

NGUYN QUC KHNH_LP:50TH1_MSSV:3795.50

BI TP LN MN THY VN CNG TRNH

Bng 3
Qi(m3/s
TT Nm )
Qsapxep p
Ki=Qi/Qn Ki-1
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2.651
195
5019
5
1
6
3541
1.01 0.0133
6.439
195
4539
4
2
7
3060
0.88 -0.124
10.22
195
4343
7
3
8
3165
0.91 -0.094
14.01
195
4326
5
4
9
3464
0.99 -0.009
196
17.80
5
0
3275
4110
3
0.94 -0.063
196
21.59
6
1
3747
3901
1
1.07 0.0721
196
25.37
7
2
3258
3897
9
0.93 -0.068
196
29.16
8
3
3231
3747
7
0.92 -0.075
196
32.95
9
4
1859
5
3541
0.53 -0.468
196
36.74
10
5
3203
2
3464
0.92 -0.083
196
11
6
4326
3442 40.53
1.24 0.2379
12 196
3048
3420 44.31
0.87 -0.128

NGUYN QUC KHNH_LP:50TH1_MSSV:3795.50

(Ki - 1)2
6

(ki-1)3

0.000177

0.00000236

0.0155

-0.00192973

0.008876

-0.00083626

7.87E-05

-0.00000070

0.003954

-0.00024861

0.005204

0.00037542

0.004567

-0.00030860

0.005682

-0.00042824

0.219183

-0.10261820

0.006969

-0.00058182

0.056606
0.016318

0.01346777
-0.00208450

BI TP LN MN THY VN CNG TRNH

13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26

7
196
8
196
9
197
0
197
1
197
2
197
3
197
4
197
5
197
6
197
7
197
8
197
9
198
0
198
1

4343

3378

3371

3371

3901

3277

5019

3275

2980

3258

4539

3231

3442

3203

3277

3165

3378

3060

3029

3048

3897

3029

3420

2980

2977

2977

4110

1859

8
48.10
6
51.89
4
55.68
2
59.47
63.25
8
67.04
5
70.83
3
74.62
1
78.40
9
82.19
7
85.98
5
89.77
3
93.56
1
97.34
8

1.24 0.2429

0.058991

0.01432777

0.96

-0.035

0.001249

-0.00004412

1.12 0.1163

0.013515

0.00157124

1.44 0.4362

0.190233

0.08297123

0.85

-0.147

0.021683

-0.00319266

1.3 0.2989

0.089353

0.02670944

0.98

-0.015

0.000227

-0.00000342

0.94

-0.062

0.003894

-0.00024300

0.97

-0.033

0.001118

-0.00003736

0.87

-0.133

0.017769

-0.00236850

1.12 0.1151

0.013256

0.00152623

0.98

-0.021

0.00045

-0.00000955

0.85

-0.148

0.021948

-0.00325196

1.18 0.1762

0.031057

0.00547314

NGUYN QUC KHNH_LP:50TH1_MSSV:3795.50

BI TP LN MN THY VN CNG TRNH

90859

26 -2E-05

0.807858

0.02823736

Trong bng 4, tn sut ly tch ca gi tr lu lng th nht trong dy gim dn (do tr s ln


nht trong chui) l Q = 81,675 m/s th :
P (m=1) = x 100% = x 100% = 2,6515%
b) V ng tn sut kinh nghim
Trn h ta c bit ca giy xc sut (Hnh 1), trc tung l gi tr ca bin ngu nhin, y
l tr s dng chy nm, v theo t l thng, v trc honh l tn sut (hay xc sut vt) tnh bng
phn trm tng ng ca tr s bin ngu nhin. Trn trc tung, gi tr nh s nh nht cn ly nh
hn gi tr lu lng nh nht trong dy.
Theo cc gia tr Q v p % t bng 4 ( ct 4 v 5), trn Hnh 1 ta chm cc im kinh nghim v v
mt ng cong trn i qua cc im kinh nghim, l ng tn sut kinh nghim
T bng s liu ta thy trn sng hng l bt u t thng VI v kt thc vo thng
X,ma cn t thng XI n thng V nm sau.ta lp bng s liu theo nm thy vn.

NGUYN QUC KHNH_LP:50TH1_MSSV:3795.50

10

BI TP LN MN THY VN CNG TRNH

Bng 4:S liu theo nm thy vn:


TT
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25

Nm/thng
1956-1957
1957-1958
1958-1959
1959-1960
1960-1961
1961-1962
1962-1963
1963-1964
1964-1965
1965-1966
1966-1967
1967-1968
1968-1969
1969-1970
1970-1971
1971-1972
1972-1973
1973-1974
1974-1975
1975-1976
1976-1977
1977-1978
1978-1979
1979-1980
1980-1981

trm:Sn ty

sng Hng

VI

VII

VIII

IX

XI

XII

II

III

IV

6420
6130
3420
5510
3490
5210
5930
2160
795
5590
6710
2930
4690
3190
4490
5910
3700
6040
4560
7090
4420
2020
6780
4500
2010

7280
9860
7990
6600
7500
4840
8030
6390
3760
7360
12200
5110
10200
6190
12100
10900
7320
9360
7300
6240
5820
9030
7320
5980
7570

11200
5830
9980
9410
9350
11000
7720
7700
4860
5950
9160
8690
10500
14800
9370
18800
784
10500
7100
5430
9510
8160
8170
8650
8430

5950
4000
6390
6070
6620
6560
4460
4430
2920
3670
8530
5450
8080
5220
6780
9360
6720
9840
7630
6070
5420
3940
8380
9670
6740

2910
3460
3210
3820
3550
5290
3250
7320
2680
4310
5090
3880
5170
2550
3420
4440
5000
4410
4670
3520
3260
3520
5130
3310
3120

1710
1620
1700
2190
2090
3520
1800
4870
2520
4480
2990
2660
3680
2250
2020
2730
3400
3150
2340
2500
3180
2260
2310
1810
1710

1110
1100
1090
1350
1790
2170
1200
2010
1470
1090
1810
1960
1800
1160
2600
1580
2990
1940
1480
1520
1610
1400
1470
1220
1230

919
940
916
1260
1210
1890
853
770
1320
1500
1420
1550
1240
1020
1250
1260
1630
1450
1360
1160
1290
1390
1290
1060
1150

721
1090
777
1130
1160
1250
769
730
1010
1140
1140
1300
922
921
1130
987
1400
1180
942
1330
1110
973
1220
1020
977

744
709
1120
887
1190
921
774
629
874
790
870
1210
747
643
875
785
1670
903
756
873
915
893
915
728
908

1190
622
1280
661
1440
1010
682
575
1310
892
988
1680
784
856
1070
974
1520
1000
1340
1080
1180
837
920
734
1570

1140
843
2520
970
1370
1640
816
593
1470
1100
1480
2260
1400
2590
2180
1840
3010
1690
2550
2870
1520
3110
1560
1370
3580

NGUYN QUC KHNH_LP:50TH1_MSSV:3795.50

nm thy
vn
3441
3017
3366
3322
3397
3775
3024
3181
2082
3156
4366
3223
4101
3449
3940
4964
3262
4289
3502
3307
3270
3128
3789
3338
3250
86939

11

BI TP LN MN THY VN CNG TRNH

2 Xc nh lng dng chy nm ng vi cc tn sut p=0,1%,1%,5%,95%


xc nh ng tn sut l lun ta dng phng php th ng,tc l dng cc ng tn sut l
lun vi CS=CV,CS=2CV,CS=3CV,CS=4CV,CS=5CV,CS=6CV,
Tnh cc thng s ca ng tn sut l lun v sai s xc nh chng
ng tn sut l lun c s dng nn v ko di (ngoi suy) ng tn sut kinh nghim.
Cc thng s ca ng tn sut l lun l:
lng dng chy bnh qun nhiu nm Q h s
phn tn C v h s khng i xng C.
C nhiu phng php tnh C v C . Ta p dng phng php m men.
A/ Tnh Q v sai s.
Theo s liu bng 3 ta c :
Q = = = 3494,57 m /s
Sai s tng i theo cng thc (2):
= x 100% =
*100% = 3,51%
B/ H s phn tn C l thng s thng k khng th nguyn, c trng cho s phn tn ca i
lng theo thi gian.
H s phn tn c tnh theo cng thc :
C=
(11)
Trong K = l h s m un
tnh C trong bng 3 ta tnh cc gi tr ca K,(K-1),(K-1),(K-1). Gi tr (K-1) dng tnh C.
Andreanov chng minh rng chnh xc tnh (K-1),(K-1) ch cn ly ti 2 ch s c ngha. i
lng (K-1) cho ta sai lch h s m un ca nm c th so vi h s m un trung bnh K = 1.
Kim tra tnh ton (K-1) bng cch ly (K-1), tng ny phi tnh bng hoc gn bng 0.
Tip tc tnh ton tm (K-1),(K-1) ta nhn c C theo cng thc (11).
C =
= 0,179
Sai s tng i ca C tnh theo cng thc ca Kritski-Melken;
NGUYN QUC KHNH_LP:50TH1_MSSV:3795.50

12

BI TP LN MN THY VN CNG TRNH

= x 100% =
x 100% = 14,37%
C/ H s khng i xng C : khi dy s liu di c th dng cng

thc gn ng tnh

C:
C= =
= 0,212
Sai s tng i tnh theo cng thc:
= x 100%= 247,9%
Nh vy sai s C l qu ln nn ta xc nh n bng cch th dn t s

m=

3 Tnh tung ng tn sut l lun (yu cu dng ng Kritski Melken).


dng ng tn sut l lun ph hp nht vi cc im kinh nghim, ta dng phng php th
dn. V vy chng ta s tnh tung ca ng tn sut l lun ng vi cc gi tr C = 1C, C = 2 C , C
= 3 C V C = 0,212
Bng5:Ni suy tung ng tn sut l lun kritki-melken cho dng chy nm.
Trm sn ty Sng hng Thi k:1956-1981
Qn=3495 m /s

NGUYN QUC KHNH_LP:50TH1_MSSV:3795.50

13

BI TP LN MN THY VN CNG TRNH

Cs

0,179

0,358

0,537

0,716

0,859

1,704

Cc
i 0,01
l
ng
Kp 1,78

0,1

0,2

0,3

0,5

P%
5

1,74

1,63

1,56

1,53

1,47

1,45

1,33

10

20

50

75

90

95

99

1,24

1,15

0,9
6
335
5
0,9
6
335
5
0,9
5
332
0
0,9
6
335
5
0,9
4
328
5
0,9
6
335
5

0,8
4
293
5
0,8
2
286
5
0,8
3
290
0
0,8
7
304
0
0,8
3
290
0
0,8
4
293
5

0,73

0,63

0,55

Qp

6221 6081 5696 5452 5347 5137 5067 4648 4333 4019

Kp

1,90

Qp

6640 5941 5592 5662 5452 5242 5102 4893 4298 3984

Kp

2,04

Qp

7129 5836 6116 5766 5592 5312 4893 4683 4263 3879

Kp

2,17

Qp

7584 6465 6256 5731 5417 5207 4683 4543 4298 3914

Kp

2,30

Qp

8038 6780 6465 6151 5871 5522 5417 4683 4333 3529

Kp

2,44

Qp

8527 6990 6885 6291 6011 5627 5417 4613 4263 3879

1,70

1,67

1,85

1,94

2,00

1,6

1,75

1,79

1,85

1,97

1,62

1,65

1,64

1,76

1,80

1,56

1,60

1,55

1,68

1,72

1,50

1,52

1,49

1,58

1,61

NGUYN QUC KHNH_LP:50TH1_MSSV:3795.50

1,46

1,40

1,34

1,55

1,55

1,40

1,34

1,30

1,34

1,32

1,23

1,22

1,23

1,24

1,22

1,14

1,11

1,12

1,01

1,11

2551 2201 1922


0,73

0,67

0,56

2551 2341 1957


0,72

0,69

0,60

2516 2411 2097


0,74

0,70

0,62

2586 2446 2166


0,72

0,70

0,64

2516 2446 2236


0,75

0,72

0,66

2621 2516 2306

14

BI TP LN MN THY VN CNG TRNH

Sau khi iu chnh cc tham s v v c 6 ng tn sut l lun,phn tch bng mt thy rng
ng c cc
tham s Qn=3494,57m /s,Cv=0,179,Cs=1,704 l ng tn sut l lun ph hp vi
yu cu.ly n tra ra cc gi tr nh yu cu tnh ton.
P(%)
0,1%
1%
Qp(m3/s)
6990
5627
NGUYN QUC KHNH_LP:50TH1_MSSV:3795.50

5%
4613

95%
2516

99,9%
1900

15

BI TP LN MN THY VN CNG TRNH

BI S 3 : PHN PHI DNG CHY TRONG NM


NGUYN QUC KHNH_LP:50TH1_MSSV:3795.50

16

BI TP LN MN THY VN CNG TRNH

1 Xc nh gii hn cc ma.
Phn b dng chy thng c xc nh theo nm thy vn, bt u t u ma l nm nay v
kt thc vo cui ma kit nm sau. Trn mt trm, thi gian ca tng ma ly chung cho tt c cc
nm c trong dy s liu.
Trong iu kin kh hu nc ta dng chy cc sng chia thnh hai ma r rt. Ma l gm cc
thng lin tc c dng chy trung bnh thng trong nhiu nm ln hn dng chy trung bnh nm trong
nhiu nm, nhng thng cn li thuc mu cn. Gii hn ma i vi cc ng min Bc thng chn l
ma l (5 thng) t thng VI X, v ma cn (7 thng) t thng XI V nm sau, min Trung v min
Nam ma l c th ngn hn, khong 3 4 thng, bt u chm hn (Thng VIII, IX, ) c bit c ni
mt nm ch c 2 thng l v 10 thng cn v ma l bt u rt mun, vo thng 1.
T s liu cho trc ta thy trn sng hng l bt u t thng VI n thng X, ma cn t thng
XI n thng V nm sau. tin cho vic tnh ton v sau, ta lp s liu theo nm thy vn (Bng 5).

NGUYN QUC KHNH_LP:50TH1_MSSV:3795.50

17

BI TP LN MN THY VN CNG TRNH

Bng6: Bng s liu theo nm thy vn trm Sn ty 1956_1981


TT
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25

Nm/thng
1956-1957
1957-1958
1958-1959
1959-1960
1960-1961
1961-1962
1962-1963
1963-1964
1964-1965
1965-1966
1966-1967
1967-1968
1968-1969
1969-1970
1970-1971
1971-1972
1972-1973
1973-1974
1974-1975
1975-1976
1976-1977
1977-1978
1978-1979
1979-1980
1980-1981

VI
6420
6130
3420
5510
3490
5210
5930
2160
795
5590
6710
2930
4690
3190
4490
5910
3700
6040
4560
7090
4420
2020
6780
4500
2010

VII
7280
9860
7990
6600
7500
4840
8030
6390
3760
7360
12200
5110
10200
6190
12100
10900
7320
9360
7300
6240
5820
9030
7320
5980
7570

VIII
11200
5830
9980
9410
9350
11000
7720
7700
4860
5950
9160
8690
10500
14800
9370
18800
784
10500
7100
5430
9510
8160
8170
8650
8430

IX
5950
4000
6390
6070
6620
6560
4460
4430
2920
3670
8530
5450
8080
5220
6780
9360
6720
9840
7630
6070
5420
3940
8380
9670
6740

NGUYN QUC KHNH_LP:50TH1_MSSV:3795.50

X
2910
3460
3210
3820
3550
5290
3250
7320
2680
4310
5090
3880
5170
2550
3420
4440
5000
4410
4670
3520
3260
3520
5130
3310
3120

XI
1710
1620
1700
2190
2090
3520
1800
4870
2520
4480
2990
2660
3680
2250
2020
2730
3400
3150
2340
2500
3180
2260
2310
1810
1710

XII
1110
1100
1090
1350
1790
2170
1200
2010
1470
1090
1810
1960
1800
1160
2600
1580
2990
1940
1480
1520
1610
1400
1470
1220
1230

II

919
940
916
1260
1210
1890
853
770
1320
1500
1420
1550
1240
1020
1250
1260
1630
1450
1360
1160
1290
1390
1290
1060
1150

721
1090
777
1130
1160
1250
769
730
1010
1140
1140
1300
922
921
1130
987
1400
1180
942
1330
1110
973
1220
1020
977

III
744
709
1120
887
1190
921
774
629
874
790
870
1210
747
643
875
785
1670
903
756
873
915
893
915
728
908

IV
1190
622
1280
661
1440
1010
682
575
1310
892
988
1680
784
856
1070
974
1520
1000
1340
1080
1180
837
920
734
1570

V
1140
843
2520
970
1370
1640
816
593
1470
1100
1480
2260
1400
2590
2180
1840
3010
1690
2550
2870
1520
3110
1560
1370
3580

nm
thy vn
3441
3017
3366
3322
3397
3775
3024
3181
2082
3156
4366
3223
4101
3449
3940
4964
3262
4289
3502
3307
3270
3128
3789
3338
3250

86939

18

BI TP LN MN THY VN CNG TRNH

2 Xc nh lng dng chy nm ng vi cc tn sut p=5%, p=50% v


p=95%
Phng php xc nh lng dng chy nm tng t trong Bi Tp 2 theo cc Bng v cc
th. Lu rng cc thng trong nm thy vn gm mt s thng ca nm trc v mt s thng ca
nm sau nn cc gi tr trung bnh lu lng ca nm thy vn v nm lch (nh bi tp 2) l khc
nhau dn ti c tham
s thng k nh , , C v C ca 2 cch tnh nm l khc nhau.
xc nh ng tn sut l lun ta dng phng php th ng tc l dng cc ng tn
sut l lun (ng Pearson III) vi C = 2C, C = 3C, C = 4C . Ri chn ly ng ph hp nht vi
cc im kinh nghim
Bng tnh cc thng s ng tn sut trm sn ty.bang 7

NGUYN QUC KHNH_LP:50TH1_MSSV:3795.50

19

BI TP LN MN THY VN CNG TRNH

Bng 7:Bng tnh cc thng s ca chui thng k dng chy nm(thy vn)
TT
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25

Nm/thng
1956-1957
1957-1958
1958-1959
1959-1960
1960-1961
1961-1962
1962-1963
1963-1964
1964-1965
1965-1966
1966-1967
1967-1968
1968-1969
1969-1970
1970-1971
1971-1972
1972-1973
1973-1974
1974-1975
1975-1976
1976-1977
1977-1978
1978-1979
1979-1980
1980-1981

Qintv
3441
3017
3366
3322
3397
3775
3024
3181
2082
3156
4366
3223
4101
3449
3940
4964
3262
4289
3502
3307
3270
3128
3789
3338
3250
86939

Qi sp xp
4964
4366
4289
4101
3940
3789
3775
3502
3449
3441
3397
3366
3338
3322
3307
3270
3262
3250
3223
3181
3156
3128
3024
3017
2082

NGUYN QUC KHNH_LP:50TH1_MSSV:3795.50

P
2.755906
6.692913
10.62992
14.56693
18.50394
22.44094
26.37795
30.31496
34.25197
38.18898
42.12598
46.06299
50
53.93701
57.87402
61.81102
65.74803
69.68504
73.62205
77.55906
81.49606
85.43307
89.37008
93.30709
97.24409

Ki=Qi/Qn
1.427438
1.255478
1.233336
1.179275
1.132978
1.089557
1.085531
1.007028
0.991787
0.989487
0.976834
0.96792
0.959868
0.955267
0.950954
0.940314
0.938014
0.934563
0.926799
0.914722
0.907533
0.899481
0.869575
0.867562
0.598696

Ki-1
0.4274376
0.255478
0.233336
0.1792751
0.1329783
0.089557
0.0855312
0.0070279
-0.008213
-0.010513
-0.023166
-0.03208
-0.040132
-0.044733
-0.049046
-0.059686
-0.061986
-0.065437
-0.073201
-0.085278
-0.092467
-0.100519
-0.130425
-0.132438
-0.401304
0

(Ki-1)2
0.182703
0.065269
0.054446
0.03214
0.017683
0.00802
0.007316
4.94E-05
6.74E-05
0.000111
0.000537
0.001029
0.001611
0.002001
0.002405
0.003562
0.003842
0.004282
0.005358
0.007272
0.00855
0.010104
0.017011
0.01754
0.161045
0.613954

(Ki-1)3
0.078094
0.016675
0.012704
0.005762
0.002351
0.000718
0.000626
3.47E-07
-5.5E-07
-1.2E-06
-1.2E-05
-3.3E-05
-6.5E-05
-9E-05
-0.00012
-0.00021
-0.00024
-0.00028
-0.00039
-0.00062
-0.00079
-0.00102
-0.00222
-0.00232
-0.06463
0.043892

20

BI TP LN MN THY VN CNG TRNH

= =3477,56
C =
= =0,159
C = = = 0,497
Dng ng tn sut l lun kriski-melken.
Ta lp bng 8 sau v tay.

Bng 8:Ni suy h s m un Kp v tnh tung ng tn sut l lun Qp.

NGUYN QUC KHNH_LP:50TH1_MSSV:3795.50

21

BI TP LN MN THY VN CNG TRNH

Sng:Hng

Cs
0,15
9
0,31
8
0,47
7
0,63
6
0,79
5
0,95
4

Trm:Sn ty

Qn=3477,56,Cv=0,159

P%

Cc
i
ln
g

0,01 0,1

0,2

0,3

0,5

10

20

50

75

90

95

99

Kp

1,61

1,49

1,46

1,43

1,40

1,36

1,32

1,26

1,19

1,11

0,89

0,81

0,76

0,68

Qp

5598.8
72
1.67

5181.6
1.54

5077.2
1.51

4972.9
1.47

4868.6
1.43

4729.5
1.38

4590.4
1.34

4381.7
3
1.27

4138.3
1.22

3860.1
1.12

3095
0.89

2816.8
0.81

2642.9
0.77

2364.7
0.69

5807.5
25
1.74

5355.4
1.58

5251.1
1.54

5112
1.50

4972.9
1.46

4799
1.40

4659.9
1.35

4416.5
1.26

4242.6
1.20

3894.9
1.13

3095
0.89

2816.8
0.82

2677.7
0.78

2399.5
0.71

6050.9
54
1.86

5494.5
1.63

5355.4
1.58

5216.3
1.54

5077.2
1.49

4868.6
1.42

4694.7
1.36

4381.7
3
1.27

4173.1
1.18

3929.6
1.12

3095
0.89

2851.6
0.83

2712.5
0.79

2469.1
0.73

6468.2
62
1.94

5668.4
1.68

5494.5
1.62

5355.4
1.56

5181.6
1.51

4938.1
1.44

4729.5
1.37

4416.5
1.27

4103.5
1.20

3894.9
1.12

0,99
5
3460
.2
0.99
6
3463
.6
0.98
5
3425
.4
0,98
5
3425
.4
0.98

2886.4
0.83

2747.3
0.79

2538.6
0.72

6746.4
66
2.04

5842.3
1.71

5633.6
1.65

5425
1.59

5251.1
1.53

5007.7
1.46

4764.3
1.39

4416.5
1.28

4173.1
1.21

3894.9
1,11

3408
0.98

2886.4
0.83

2747.3
0.80

2503.8
0.74

7094.2
22

5946.6

5738

5529.3

5320.7

5077.2

4833.8

4451.2
8

4207.8

3860.1

3408

3095
0.89
5
3112.
4
0.89
6
3115.
9

2886.4

2782

2573.4

Kp
Qp
Kp
Qp
Kp
Qp
Kp
Qp
Kp
Qp

NGUYN QUC KHNH_LP:50TH1_MSSV:3795.50

22

BI TP LN MN THY VN CNG TRNH

T bng ni suy ny ta v c 6 ng tn sut l lun trn giy xc sut:


T cc hnh v ta chn ng c Cv=0,159,Cs=0,954 l ng tn sut l lun ph hp nht.ta tra ra
kt qu nh sau
Nm in hnh nhiu nc:
Q5%=4451
Nm in hnh nc trung bnh:
Q50%=3408
Nm in hnh t nc:
Q95%=2782

3_chn cc nm in hnh nhiu nc,trung bnh nc ,t nc v tnh phn phi


dng chy trong nm ca chng.
A/Chn nm in hnh:cc nm in hnh chn t bng 6

NGUYN QUC KHNH_LP:50TH1_MSSV:3795.50

23

BI TP LN MN THY VN CNG TRNH

- Nm i biu phi c gi tr bnh qun nm gn vi gi tr lu lng tnh c


p=5%,50%,95%
- Nm i biu c dng phn b bt li nht i vi cng trnh

vi

Bng 9:Dng chy thng ca nm nhiu trung bnh v t nc:


Nm
in
hnh
Nhiu
nc
Trung
bnh
Nc

t nc

Ma l
Nm
thy vn VI
VII
19661967
6710
12200

Ma cn
VIII

IX

XI

XII

II

III

IV

Qnm

9160

8530

5090

2990

1810

1420

1140

870

988

1480

4366

19561957

6420

7280

11200

5950

2910

1710

1110

919

721

744

1190

1140

3441

19571958

6130

9860

5830

4000

3460

1620

1100

940

1090

709

622

843

3017

Tnh phn b dng chy theo thng v theo ma,tc l tnh t s phn trm gia tng lng nc
trong tng thng v trong tng ma so vi tng lng nc trong c nm.
Tng lng dng chy tng thng(km3)
Wthng = thng.Tthng.10-9
Lu lng trung bnh v tng lng dng chy trong tng ma:
l = ,k l s thng trong ma l v Wthng = Wthngi
cn = ,m l s thng ma cn
Tng lng dng chy c nm: Wnm= Wl + Wcn
Theo ma h s phn phi dng chy c tnh theo cng thc:
l = x100% v cn = x100%
NGUYN QUC KHNH_LP:50TH1_MSSV:3795.50

24

BI TP LN MN THY VN CNG TRNH

Theo cc thng h s phn b dng chy c tnh theo cng thc sau:
thng = x100%
Kt qu tnh phn b dng chy theo cc ma bng 10 v theo cc thng bng 11 sau:

Bng 12:Phn phi dng chy theo ma (%)(dng phng php phn phi theo nm in hnh)
Nm in
hnh

Nm

thy vn
1966Nhiu nc 1967
1956Trung bnh
1957
Nc
19571958
t nc

Q(m3/s)

Nm
W(km3)

Q(m3/s)

Ma l
W(km3)

(%)

Q(m3/s)

Ma cn
W(km3)

(%)

4366

137.6862

8338

108.0605

78.48317

1528.28571

27.72922

20.13943

3441

108.5154

6752

87.50592

80.63917

1076.28571

19.52813

17.99572

3017

95.14411

5856

75.89376

79.76717

989.142857

17.94701

18.86298

NGUYN QUC KHNH_LP:50TH1_MSSV:3795.50

25

BI TP LN MN THY VN CNG TRNH

M HNH NM NHIU NC(1956_1981)

ALPHA(%)

90
80
70
60
50
40

Series1

30
20
10
0
1

2
MA

NGUYN QUC KHNH_LP:50TH1_MSSV:3795.50

26

BI TP LN MN THY VN CNG TRNH

M HNH NM TB NC

ALPHA(%)

90
80
70
60
50
40

Series1

30
20
10
0
1

2
MA

NGUYN QUC KHNH_LP:50TH1_MSSV:3795.50

27

BI TP LN MN THY VN CNG TRNH

M HNH NM T NC(1956_1981)

ALPHA(%)

90
80
70
60
50
40

Series1

30
20
10
0
1

2
MA

Bng 13:Phn phi dng chy thng (%)


Cc thng l
VIII

Nm in hnh

VI

VII

Nhiu nc
Trung bnh Nc
t nc

12.63185
15.33482
16.69989

22.96701
17.38902
26.86148

17.2440811
26.7523319
15.8826017

IX

XI

XII

16.05808
14.21218
10.89715

9.582137
6.950829
9.426038

5.628799
4.084508
4.413347

3.4074
2.651347
2.996717

NGUYN QUC KHNH_LP:50TH1_MSSV:3795.50

Cc thng cn
I
II
III
2.673209
2.195124
2.560831

2.146097
1.722181
2.969474

1.6378112
1.7771192
1.9315205

IV

1.859951
2.842435
1.694507

2.786162
2.723005
2.296575

28

BI TP LN MN THY VN CNG TRNH

M HNH NM NHIU NC
25

BETA(%)

20
15
Series1
10
5
0
1

10

11

12

THNG

NGUYN QUC KHNH_LP:50TH1_MSSV:3795.50

29

BI TP LN MN THY VN CNG TRNH

M HNH NM TB NC
30

BETA(%)

25
20
15

Series1

10
5
0
1

10

11

12

THNG

NGUYN QUC KHNH_LP:50TH1_MSSV:3795.50

30

BI TP LN MN THY VN CNG TRNH

M HNH NM T NC(1956_1981)
30

BETA(%)

25
20
15

Series1

10
5
0
1

10

11

12

THNG
NGUYN QUC KHNH_LP:50TH1_MSSV:3795.50

31

BI TP LN MN THY VN CNG TRNH

NGUYN QUC KHNH_LP:50TH1_MSSV:3795.50

32

BI TP LN MN THY VN CNG TRNH

NGUYN QUC KHNH_LP:50TH1_MSSV:3795.50

33

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