NGUYN VN THN

9/2011





BI TP
XC SUT
V THNG K TON




Mc lc
I BI TP 4
1 Tp hp - Gii tch t hp 1
1.1 Tp hp . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
1.2 Gii tch t hp . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
2 Bin c v xc sut 5
2.1 Bin c . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
2.2 Xc sut c in . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
2.3 Xc sut hnh hc . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
2.4 Cc cng thc tnh xc sut c bn . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
2.5 Cng thc xc sut y , cng thc Bayes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
3 Bin ngu nhin v hm phn phi 14
4 Mt s phn phi xc sut thng dng 23
4.1 Phn phi Bernoulli, nh thc . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
4.2 Phn phi Poisson . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
4.3 Phn phi chun . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28
5 L thuyt mu 31
6 c lng tham s thng k 34
6.1 c lng trung bnh tng th . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34
6.2 c lng t l tng th . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36
MC LC 3
6.3 Tng hp . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37
7 Kim nh gi thuyt thng k 39
7.1 So snh k vng vi mt s cho trc . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39
7.2 So snh hai k vng . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42
7.3 So snh t l vi mt s cho trc . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44
7.4 So snh hai t l . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45
II BI GII 46
Phn I
BI TP
Chng 1
Tp hp - Gii tch t hp
1.1 Tp hp
Bi tp 1.1. Cho dy tp hp A
1
, A
2
, . . . , A
n
, . . .. Chng minh rng lun lun tn ti dy tp
hp B
1
, B
2
, . . . , B
n
, . . ., sao cho:
(a) Cc B
i
tng i mt ri nhau;
(b)

i=1
A
i
=

k=1
B
k
.
Bi tp 1.2. Chng minh rng cc h thc sau y tng ng nu A v B l tp hp con
ca :
A B = , A B, B A.
Bi tp 1.3. Khng nh cho rng nu A, B, C l tp hp con ca tp hp sao cho
A B C v B A C, th B = ,
c ng khng?
Bi tp 1.4. Chng minh rng nu A, B, C l cc tp hp con ca tp hp , sao cho
A B C v A C B, th A C =
Bi tp 1.5. Tm biu thc n gin ca cc biu thc sau:
(a) (A B)(A C)
(b) (A B)(A B);
(c) (A B)(A B)(A B)
(d) (A B)(A B)(A B)
1.2 Gii tch t hp 2
(e) (A B)(B C)
Bi tp 1.6. H thc no trong cc h thc sau y ng
(a) A B C = A (B \ AB) (C \ AC)
(b) A B = (A \ AB) B
(c) (A B) \ A = B
(d) (A B) \ C = A (B \ C)
(e) ABC = AB(C B)
(f) AB BC CA ABC
(g) (AB BC CA) (A B C)
(h) ABC A B
(i) A BC = AC BC
(j) A BC = C \ (C(A B))
Bi tp 1.7. Chng minh rng:
(a) A B A B = A
(b) (A B)AB = AB BA
Bi tp 1.8. Chng minh
(a) Nu A B = AB th A = B
(b) A BC (A B)C
(c) Nu A
1
A, B
1
B v A B = th A
1
B
1
=
1.2 Gii tch t hp
Bi tp 1.9. Mt l hng c 50 sn phm.
(a) C bao nhiu cch chn ngu nhin cng lc 5 sn phm kim tra?
(b) C bao nhiu cch chn ngu nhin ln lt 5 sn phm?
Bi tp 1.10. Trong mt h thng in thoi ni b 3 s
1.2 Gii tch t hp 3
(a) c bao nhiu my c cc ch s khc nhau?
(b) C bao nhiu my c s 9 cui cn cc ch s cn li u khc nhau?
Bi tp 1.11. Mt lp hc c 40 hc sinh gm 20 nam v 20 n. C bao nhiu cch chia
trong mi na lp c 10 nam sinh v 10 n sinh?
Bi tp 1.12. Nu mt ngi c 6 i v khc nhau v 4 i giy khc nhau. C bao nhiu
cch kt hp gia v v giy?
Bi tp 1.13. Nm ngi A, B, C, D, E s pht biu trong mt hi ngh. C bao nhiu cch
sp xp :
(a) Ngi B pht biu sau A.
(b) Ngi A pht biu xong th n lt B.
Bi tp 1.14. C 6 hc sinh c sp xp ngi vo 6 ch ghi s th t trn mt bn di.
Tm s cch xp
(a) 6 hc sinh vo bn.
(b) 6 hc sinh ny vo bn sao cho 2 hc sinh A, B ngi cnh nhau.
(c) 6 hc sinh ny ngi vo bn sao cho 2 hc sinh A, B khng ngi cnh nhau.
Bi tp 1.15. Mt lp c 40 hc sinh. Gio vin ch nhim mun chn ra mt ban cn s lp:
1 lp trng, 1 lp ph, 1 th qu. Hi gio vin ch nhim c bao nhiu cch chn ban cn s
lp?
Bi tp 1.16. Mt hp c 8 bi , 6 bi trng, 4 bi vng. Ngi ta chn ra 6 bi t hp . Hi
c bao nhiu cch chn nu:
(a) Khng yu cu g thm.
(b) Phi c 2 bi , 2 bi trng, 2 bi vng.
(c) C ng 2 bi vng.
Bi tp 1.17. Mt n cnh st khu vc c 9 ngi. Trong ngy cn c 3 ngi lm nhim v
a im A, 2 ngi a im B cn 4 ngi trc ti n. Hi c bao nhiu cch phn cng?
Bi tp 1.18. Mt t sn xut c 12 ngi, trong c 4 n, cn chia thnh 4 nhm u
nhau. Hy tm s cch phn chia sao cho mi nhm c 1 n?
Bi tp 1.19. Xp 12 hnh khch ln 4 toa tu. Tm s cch sp xp:
(a) Mi toa c 3 hnh khch.
1.2 Gii tch t hp 4
(b) Mt toa c 6 hnh khch, mt toa c 4 hnh khch, 2 toa cn li mi toa c 1 hnh khch.
Bi tp 1.20. Gi s m, n, r l cc s nguyn dng. Chng minh rng
C
0
m
C
r
nm
+ C
1
m
C
r1
nm
+ + C
r
m
C
0
nm
= C
r
n
Bi tp 1.21. Chng minh rng
(a) C
1
n
+ 2C
2
n
+ + nC
n
n
= n2
n1
(b) 2.1.C
2
n
+ 3.2.C
3
n
+ + n(n 1)C
n
n
= n(n 1)2
n2
Bi tp 1.22. Cho m, n, r l cc s nguyn dng. Chng minh rng
(a)
m

k=0
C
r
nk
= C
r+1
n+1
C
r+1
nm
(b)
m

k=0
(1)
k
C
k
n
= (1)
m
C
m
n1
Bi tp 1.23. Chng minh rng
_
C
0
n
_
2
+
_
C
1
n
_
2
+ + (C
n
n
)
2
= C
n
2n
Bi tp 1.24. Chng minh rng
n

k=0
2n!
(k!)
2
[(n k)!]
2
= (C
n
2n
)
2
Chng 2
Bin c v xc sut
2.1 Bin c
Bi tp 2.1. Khi no th c cc ng thc sau:
(a) A + B = A
(b) AB = A
(c) A + B = AB
Hai s kin A v A + B c xung khc khng?
Bi tp 2.2. Mt chic tu thy gm mt bnh li, 4 ni hi, 2 tuc bin. Gi A, B
i
(i =
1, . . . , 4), C
j
(j = 1, 2) ln lt l cc s kin bnh li hot ng tt, ni hi th i hot ng tt,
tuc bin th j hot ng tt. Bit rng tu hot ng tt khi v ch khi bnh li, t nht 1 ni
hi v t nht mt tuc bin u hot ng tt. Gi D l s kin tu hot ng tt. Hy biu
din D v D qua A, B
i
, C
j
.
Bi tp 2.3. C 4 sinh vin lm bi thi. K hiu B
i
(i = 1, . . . , 4) l bin c sinh vin th i lm
bi thi t yu cu. Hy biu din cc bin c sau y:
(a) C ng mt sinh vin t yu cu.
(b) C ng ba sinh vin t yu cu.
(c) C t nht mt sinh vin t yu cu.
(d) Khng c sinh vin no t yu cu.
Bi tp 2.4. Xt php th: Gieo mt xc xc 2 ln. M t khng gian bin c s cp ng vi
php th trn?
2.2 Xc sut c in 6
Gi A: Tng s nt chia ht cho 3, B: Tr tuyt i ca hiu s nt l s chn. Biu din
A, B?
Bi tp 2.5. Cho A, B l hai bin c ngu nhin bit. Tm bin c X t h thc:
X + A + X + A = B
Bi tp 2.6. Xt php th: Bn khng hn ch vo 1 bia cho n khi trng bia ln u tin
th dng. Biu din khng gian bin c s cp ca bin c trn. Ch ra mt h y cc bin
c.
Bi tp 2.7. Gieo hai con xc xc cn i v ng cht. Gi A
i
l bin c xy ra khi s nt
mt trn con xc xc th nht l i(i = 1, . . . , 6), B
k
bin c xy ra khi s nt mt trn con
xc xc th hai l k(k = 1, . . . , 6).
(a) Hy m t cc bin c A
6
B
6
, A
3
B
5
(b) Vit bng k hiu cc bin c:
A: hiu gia s nt mt trn con xc xc th nht v th hai c tr s tuyt i
bng ba.
B: s nt mt trn hai con xc xc bng nhau.
(c) Hy ch ra mt nhm y cc bin c.
2.2 Xc sut c in
Bi tp 2.8. Mt nhm n ngi xp ngu nhin thnh mt hng di.
(a) Tm xc sut 2 ngi nh trc ng cnh nhau.
(b) Tm xc sut 2 ngi ng cch nhau 2 ngi.
(c) Tm xc sut 2 ngi ng cch nhau r ngi (0 < r < n 2).
(d) Xt trng hp khi h xp thnh mt vng trn.
Bi tp 2.9. Thang my ca mt ta nh 7 tng, xut pht t tng mt vi 3 ngi khch.
Tnh xc sut :
(a) Tt c cng ra tng bn.
(b) Tt c cng ra mt tng.
(c) Mi ngi ra mt tng khc nhau.
2.3 Xc sut hnh hc 7
Bi tp 2.10. C n qu cu c phn ngu nhin ln lt vo n hp, mi hp c th cha
nhiu qu cu. Khi phn bit hp v cu, tm xc sut mi hp cha mt qu cu.
Bi tp 2.11. Cho mt l hng gm n sn phm trong c m sn phm xu. Ly ngu nhin
t l hng k sn phm. Tm xc sut sao cho trong s sn phm ly ra c ng s sn phm
xu (s < k).
Bi tp 2.12. Ta gieo lin tip 4 ln mt ng tin cn i ng cht. Tm xc sut ca cc
bin c:
(a) A: C hai mt sp.
(b) B: C ba mt nga.
(c) C: C t nht mt mt sp.
Bi tp 2.13. Mi hai sn phm c sp ngu nhin vo ba hp. Tm xc sut hp th
nht c cha ba sn phm.
Bi tp 2.14. Gieo ng thi hai con xc xc ng cht cn i n ln lin tip.Tm xc sut
xut hin t nht mt ln hai mt trn cng c 6 nt.
2.3 Xc sut hnh hc
Bi tp 2.15. Mt thanh st thng c b thnh ba khc mt cch ngu nhin. Tm xc
sut ba khc to c thnh mt tam gic. Bit rng thanh st di l (n v di.)
Bi tp 2.16. (Bi ton Butffon) Trn mt phng c cc ng thng song song cch u
nhau 2a, gieo ngu nhin mt cy kim c di 2l (l < a). Tm xc sut cy kim ct mt
ng thng no .
Bi tp 2.17. Trn ng trn bn knh R c mt im A c nh, chn ngu nhin mt im
B. Tm xc sut cung AB khng qu R.
Bi tp 2.18. Trn on thng OA ta gieo mt cch ngu nhin hai im B, C c ta tng
ng l OB = x, OC = y(y x). Tm xc sut sao cho di ca on BC b hn di ca
on OB.
2.4 Cc cng thc tnh xc sut c bn
Bi tp 2.19. Mt h thng c cu to bi 3 b phn c lp nhau. H thng s hot ng
nu t nht 2 trong 3 b phn cn hot ng. Nu tin cy ca mi b phn l 0.95 th tin
cy ca h thng l bao nhiu?
2.4 Cc cng thc tnh xc sut c bn 8
Bi tp 2.20. Mt hp c 7 bi v 3 bi en.
(a) Ly ngu nhin 1 vin bi t hp ra kim tra. Tnh xc sut nhn c bi en.
(b) Ly ngu nhin ln lt c hon li 2 bi. Tnh xc sut ly c 2 bi en.
(c) Ly ngu nhin ra 2 vin bi t hp. Tnh xc sut ly c 2 bi en.
Bi tp 2.21. Cho P(A) =
1
3
, P(B) =
1
2
v P(A + B) =
3
4
.
Tnh P(AB), P(A.B), P(A + B), P(AB), P(AB).
Bi tp 2.22. T l ngi mc bnh tim trong mt vng dn c l 9%, mc bnh huyt p l
12%, mc c hai bnh l 7%. Chn ngu nhin mt ngi trong vng. Tnh xc sut ngi

(a) B bnh tim hay b bnh huyt p.

(b) Khng b bnh tim cng khng b bnh huyt p.
(c) Khng b bnh tim hay khng b bnh huyt p.
(d) B bnh tim nhng khng b bnh huyt p.
(e) Khng b bnh tim nhng b bnh huyt p.
Bi tp 2.23. Bn qun mt s cui cng trong s in thoi cn gi (s in thoi gm 6 ch
s) v bn chn s cui cng ny mt cch ngu nhin. Tnh xc sut bn gi ng s in
thoi ny m khng phi th qu 3 ln. Nu bit s cui cng l s l th xc sut ny l bao
nhiu ?
Bi tp 2.24.
(a) Cho A, B l hai bin c c lp. Chng minh rng A, B; A, B v A, B u l cc cp bin
c c lp.
(b) Cho A
1
, A
2
, . . . , A
n
l n bin c c lp. Chng minh rng A
1
, A
2
, . . . , A
n
cng l n bin
c c lp. T suy ra rng nu xt n bin c B
1
, B
2
, . . . , B
n
vi B
i
= A
i
hoc B
i
= A
i
th B
1
, B
2
, . . . , B
n
cng l n bin c c lp.
Bi tp 2.25. Mt t x s pht hnh N v, trong c M v c thng. Mt ngi mua r
v (r < N M). Tnh xc sut ngi c t nht mt v trng thng.
Bi tp 2.26. Mt ngi c 3 con g mi, 2 con g trng nht chung mt lng. Mt ngi n
mua, ngi bn bt ngu nhin ra mt con. Ngi mua chp nhn mua con .
(a) Tm xc sut ngi mua c con g mi.
Ngi th hai n mua, ngi bn li bt ngu nhin ra mt con.
2.4 Cc cng thc tnh xc sut c bn 9
(b) Tm xc sut ngi th hai mua c g trng, bit rng ngi th nht mua c g mi.
(c) Xc sut trn bng bao nhiu nu ngi bn g qun mt rng con g bn cho ngi th
nht l g trng hay g mi?
Bi tp 2.27. C mt nhm n sinh vin, mi ngi c mt o ma ging ht nhau. Mt hm
tri ma, c nhm cng n lp v treo o mc o. Lc ra v v vi vng mi ngi ly h ha
mt ci o. Tnh xc sut c t nht mt sinh vin chn ng o ca mnh.
Bi tp 2.28. Mt ngi vit n l th v b n l th ny vo trong n phong b vit sn
a ch. Tm xc sut sao cho c t nht mt l th c b ng vo phong b ca n.
Bi tp 2.29. Ba x th, mi ngi bn mt vin n vo mc tiu vi xc sut trng ch
ca mi ngi l 0.6; 0.7; 0.8. Tm xc sut
(a) ch c ngi th hai bn trng.
(b) c ng mt ngi bn trng.
(c) c t nht mt ngi bn trng.
(d) c ba ngi u bn trng.
(e) c ng hai ngi bn trng.
(f) c t nht hai ngi bn trng.
(g) c khng qu hai ngi bn trng.
Bi tp 2.30. Cho hai bin c xung khc A v B, sao cho P(A) = 0, P(B) = 0.
Chng minh rng A v B ph thuc nhau.
Bi tp 2.31. Ba con nga a, b, c trong mt cuc ua nga. Nu xut hin bac c ngha l b
n ch trc, sau l a v v cui l c. Khi tp hp tt c cc kh nng xut hin l
= {abc, acb, bac, bca, cab, cba}.
Gi s rng P[{abc}] = P[{acb}] = 1/18 v bn kh nng cn li u c xc sut xy ra l 2/9.
Hn na, ta nh ngha cc bin c
A = "a n ch trc b" v B = "a n ch trc c"
(a) Hai bin c A v B c to thnh mt h y ca ?
(b) Hai bin c A v B c c lp nhau?
Bi tp 2.32. C tn ti hai bin c xung khc v c lp khng?
2.4 Cc cng thc tnh xc sut c bn 10
Bi tp 2.33. Mt my tnh in t gm c n b phn. Xc sut hng trong khong thi gian
T ca b phn th k bng p
k
(k = 1, 2, . . . , n). Nu d ch mt b phn b hng th my tnh
ngng lm vic. Tm xc sut my tnh ngng lm vic trong khong thi gian T.
Bi tp 2.34. Chng minh rng nu
P(A|B) > P(A), th P(B|A) > P(B)
Bi tp 2.35. Gi s P(AB) = 1/4, P(A|B) = 1/8 v P(B) = 1/2. Tnh P(A).
Bi tp 2.36. Bit rng ta nhn c t nht mt mt nga trong 3 ln tung ng xu c
lp. Hi xc sut t c c 3 mt nga l bao nhiu?
Bi tp 2.37. Tung mt con xc sc hai ln c lp nhau. Bit rng ln tung th nht c
s nt chn. Tnh xc sut tng s nt hai ln tung bng 4.
Bi tp 2.38. Gi s P(A) = P(B) = 1/4 v P(A|B) = P(B). Tnh P(AB).
Bi tp 2.39. Bn lin tip vo mt mc tiu cho n khi c mt vin n u tin ri vo
mc tiu th ngng bn. Tm xc sut sao cho phi bn n vin th 6, bit rng xc sut trng
ch ca mi vin n l 0.2 v cc ln bn l c lp.
Bi tp 2.40. Gi s cc bin c A
1
, . . . , A
n
c lp c xc sut tng ng P(A
k
) = p
k
(k =
1, . . . , n). Tm xc sut sao cho:
(a) khng mt bin c no trong cc bin c xut hin.
(b) c t nht mt bin c trong cc bin c xut hin.
T suy ra cng thc khai trin tch
n

k=1
(1 p
k
)
Bi tp 2.41. C ba tiu ch ph bin cho vic chn mua mt chic xe hi mi no l A:
hp s t ng, B: ng c V6, v C: iu ha nhit . Da trn d liu bn hng trc y, ta
c th gi s rng P(A) = 0.7, P(B) = 0.75, P(C) = 0.80, P(A+B) = 0.80, P(A+C) = 0.85,
P(B +C) = 0.90 v P(A+B +C) = 0.95, vi P(A) l xc sut ngi mua bt k chn tiu ch
A, v.v. . . . Tnh xc sut ca cc bin c sau:
(a) ngi mua chn t nht mt trong 3 tiu ch.
(b) ngi mua khng chn tiu ch no trong 3 tiu ch trn.
(c) ngi mua ch chn tiu ch iu ha nhit .
(d) ngi mua chn chnh xc mt trong 3 tiu ch.
2.5 Cng thc xc sut y , cng thc Bayes 11
2.5 Cng thc xc sut y , cng thc Bayes
Bi tp 2.42. Gi s P(B|A
1
) = 1/2, P(B|A
2
) = 1/4 vi A
1
v A
2
l hai bin c ng kh
nng v to thnh mt h y cc bin c. Tnh P(A
1
|B).
Bi tp 2.43. Mt hp ng 10 phiu trong c 2 phiu trng thng. C 10 ngi ln lt
rt thm. Tnh xc sut nhn c phn thng ca mi ngi.
Bi tp 2.44. C hai hp ng bi. Hp 1 ng 20 bi trong c 5 bi v 15 bi trng. Hp
2 ng 15 bi trong c 6 bi v 9 bi trng. Ly mt bi hp 1 b vo hp 2 , trn u ri
ly ra mt bi. Tnh xc sut nhn c bi ? bi trng?
Bi tp 2.45. Trong mt vng dn c, c 100 ngi th c 30 ngi ht thuc l. Bit t l
ngi b vim hng trong s ngi ht thuc l l 60%, trong s ngi khng ht thuc l l
30%. Khm ngu nhin mt ngi v thy ngi b vim hng.
(a) Tm xc sut ngi ht thuc l.
(b) Nu ngi khng b vim hng th xc sut ngi ht thuc l l bao nhiu.
Bi tp 2.46. Mt trung tm chn on bnh dng mt php kim nh T. Xc sut mt
ngi n trung tm m c bnh l 0.8. Xc sut ngi khm c bnh khi php kim nh
dng tnh l 0.9 v xc sut ngi khm khng c bnh khi php kim nh m tnh l 0.5.
Tnh cc xc sut
(a) php kim nh l dng tnh.
(b) php kim nh cho kt qu ng.
Bi tp 2.47. Mt cp tr sinh i c th do cng mt trng (sinh i tht) hay do hai trng
khc nhau sinh ra (sinh i gi). Cc cp sinh i tht lun lun c cng gii tnh. Cc cp sinh
i gi th gii tnh ca mi a c lp vi nhau v c xc sut l 0.5. Thng k cho thy 34%
cp sinh i l trai; 30% cp sinh i l gi v 36% cp sinh i c gii tnh khc nhau.
(a) Tnh t l cp sinh i tht.
(b) Tm t l cp sinh i tht trong s cc cp sinh i c cng gii tnh.
Bi tp 2.48. C 10 hp bi, trong c 4 hp loi I, 3 hp loi II, cn li l hp loi III. Hp
loi I c 3 bi trng v 5 , hp loi II c 4 bi trng v 6 bi , hp loi III c 2 bi trng v 2
bi .
(a) Chn ngu nhin mt hp v t ly h ha 1 bi. Tm xc sut c bi .
(b) Chn ngu nhin mt hp v t ly 1 bi th c bi trng. Tm xc sut bi ly ra
thuc loi II.
2.5 Cng thc xc sut y , cng thc Bayes 12
Bi tp 2.49. C hai l sn phm, l th nht c 10 sn phm loi I v 2 sn phm loi II.
L th hai c 16 sn phm loi I v 4 sn phm loi II. T mi l ta ly ngu nhin mt sn
phm. Sau , t 2 sn phm thu c ly h ha ra mt sn phm. Tm xc sut sn phm
ly ra sau cng l sn phm loi I.
Bi tp 2.50. C 2 l g. L th nht gm 15 con, trong c 3 con g trng. L th hai
gm 20 con, trong c 4 g trng. Mt con t l th hai nhy sang l th nht. Sau t l
th nht ta bt ngu nhin ra mt con. Tm xc sut con g bt ra l g trng.
Bi tp 2.51. Ba my t ng sn xut cng mt loi chi tit, trong my I sn xut 25%,
my II sn xut 30% v my III sn xut 45% tng sn lng. T l ph phm ca cc my ln
lt l 0.1%; 0.2%; 0.4%. Tm xc sut khi chn ngu nhin ra 1 sn phm t kho th
(a) c chi tit ph phm.
(b) chi tit ph phm do my II sn xut.
Bi tp 2.52. Gi s 3 my M
1
, M
2
, M
3
sn xut ln lt 500, 1000, 1500 linh kin mi ngy
vi t l ph phm tng ng l 5%, 6% v 7%. Vo cui ngy lm vic no , ngi ta ly mt
linh kin c sn xut bi mt trong 3 my trn mt cch ngu nhin, kt qu l c mt
ph phm. Tm xc sut linh kin ny c sn xut bi my M
3
.
Bi tp 2.53. Ba khu pho cng bn vo mt mc tiu vi xc sut trng ch ca mi khu
l 0.4; 0.7; 0.8. Bit rng xc sut mc tiu b tiu dit khi trng mt pht n l 30%, khi
trng 2 pht n l 70%, cn trng 3 pht n th chc chn mc tiu b tiu dit. Gi s mi
khu pho bn 1 pht.
(a) Tnh xc sut mc tiu b tiu dit.
(b) Bit rng mc tiu b tiu dit. Tnh xc sut khu th 3 c ng gp vo thnh
cng .
Bi tp 2.54. Hp I c 10 linh kin trong c 3 b hng. Hp II c 15 linh kin trong c
4 b hng. Ly ngu nhin t mi hp ra mt linh kin.
(a) Tnh xc sut c 2 linh kin ly ra u hng.
(b) S linh kin cn li trong 2 hp em b vo hp III. T hp III ly ngu nhin ra 1 linh
kin. Tnh xc sut linh kin ly ra t hp III b hng.
(c) Bit linh kin ly ra t hp III l hng. Tnh xc sut 2 linh kin ly ra t hp I v II
lc ban u l hng.
Bi tp 2.55. C 3 ca hng I, II, III cng kinh doanh sn phm Y , trong th phn ca
ca hng I, III nh nhau v gp i th phn ca ca hng II. T l sn phm loi A trong 3
ca hng ln lt l 70%, 75% v 50%. Mt khch hng chn ngu nhin 1 ca hng v t
mua mt sn phm.
2.5 Cng thc xc sut y , cng thc Bayes 13
(a) Tnh xc sut khch hng mua c sn phm loi A.
(b) Gi s khch hng mua c sn phm loi A, hi kh nng ngi y mua c
ca hng no l nhiu nht.
Bi tp 2.56. Cho l mt php th ngu nhin vi 3 bin c s cp c th xy ra l A, B v
C. Gi s ta tin hnh v hn ln v c lp nhau. Tnh theo P(A), P(B) xc sut bin c A
xut hin trc B.
Chng 3
Bin ngu nhin v hm phn phi
Bi tp 3.1. Cho bin ngu nhin ri rc X c bng phn phi xc sut cho bi bng sau:
X 2 1 0 1 2
P 1/8 2/8 2/8 2/8 1/8
(a) Tm hm phn phi xc sut F(x).
(b) Tnh P(1 X 1) v P
_
X 1 hoc X = 2
_
.
(c) Lp bng phn phi xc sut ca bin ngu nhin Y = X
2
.
Bi tp 3.2. Bin ngu nhin ri rc X c hm xc sut cho bi
f(x) =
2x + 1
25
, x = 0, 1, 2, 3, 4
(a) Lp bng phn phi xc sut ca X.
(b) Tnh P(2 X < 4) v P(X > 10).
Bi tp 3.3. Gi X l bin ngu nhin ri rc c bng phn phi xc sut sau
X 1 0 3
P 0.5 0.2 0.3
(a) Tnh lch chun ca X.
(b) Tnh k vng ca X
3
.
15
(c) Tm hm phn phi ca X.
(d) Ta nh ngha Y = X
2
+ X + 1. Lp bng phn phi xc sut ca Y .
Bi tp 3.4. Bin ngu nhin X c hm mt f(x) nh sau
f(x) =
_
_
_
kx(2 x) khi 1 < x < 2
0 ni khc
(a) Xc nh gi tr ca k f(x) l hm mt ca bin ngu nhin X. Vi k va tm c
tnh k vng v phng sai ca bin ngu nhin X.
(b) Tm hm phn phi F(x) ca bin ngu nhin X.
(c) Tm hm phn phi G(y) ca bin ngu nhin Y = X
3
.
Bi tp 3.5. Bin ngu nhin lin tc X c hm mt
f(x) =
_
_
_
e
x
khi x > 0
0 khi x 0
(a) Tnh P(3 X).
(b) Tm gi tr ca a sao cho P(X a) = 0, 1.
(c) Xc nh hm phn phi v mt xc sut ca bin ngu nhin Y =

X.
Bi tp 3.6. Tnh P(X 8) nu
f
X
(x) =
_
_
_
1
96
x
3
e
x/2
nu x 0
0 nu khc
Bi tp 3.7. Cho
f
X
(x) =
_
2

x
2
vi
_
2

x
_
2

Tnh P(X < 0).

Bi tp 3.8. Bin ngu nhin X c hm mt
f(x) =
_
_
_
a exp
_

x
2
_
khi x 0
0 ni khc
Xc nh:
16
(a) Hng s a.
(b) Hm phn phi xc sut F(x)
(c) K vng v phng sai ca bin ngu nhin X.
(d) K vng v phng sai ca bin ngu nhin Y = (X/2) 1.
Bi tp 3.9. Cho X l bin ngu nhin c hm mt sau
f
X
(x) =
_
_
_
c(1 x
2
) nu 1 x 1
0 nu |x| > 1
vi c l mt hng s dng. Tm
(a) hng s c
(b) trung bnh ca X
(c) phng sai ca X
(d) hm phn phi F
X
(x).
Bi tp 3.10. Bin ngu nhin lin tc X c hm mt
f(x) =
_
_
_
1
2
x khi 0 < x < 2
0 ni khc
Tm hm phn phi v hm mt xc sut ca cc bin ngu nhin sau:
(a) Y = X(2 X).
(b) Z = 4 X
3
.
(c) T = 3X + 2.
Bi tp 3.11. Tnh phng sai ca

X nu
p
X
(x) =
_

_
1/4 nu x = 0
1/2 nu x = 1
1/4 nu x = 4
17
Bi tp 3.12. Tnh phn v mc 25% (tc l gi tr x
0.25
sao cho P(X < x
0.25
) = 0.25) ca
bin ngu nhin lin tc X c hm mt sau:
f
X
(x) =
_
_
_
xe
x
2
/2
nu x 0
0 nu x < 0
Bi tp 3.13. Cho
F
X
(x) =
_

_
0 nu x < 0
x/2 nu 0 x 1
x/6 + 1/3 nu 1 < x < 4
1 nu x 4
l hm phn phi ca bin ngu nhin lin tc X.
(a) Tnh hm mt ca X.
(b) Tm phn v mc 75% ca X (tc l tm x
0.75
sao cho P(X < x
0.75
) = 0.75).
(c) Tnh k vng ca X.
(d) Tnh E(1/X).
(e) Ta nh ngha
Y =
_
_
_
1 nu X 1
1 nu X > 1
(i) Tm F
Y
(0).
(ii) Tnh phng sai ca Y .
Bi tp 3.14. Bin ngu nhin lin tc X c hm mt xc sut
f(x) =
_
_
_
3
4
x(2 x) khi 0 x 2
0 ni khc
(a) Xc nh hm phn phi xc sut F(x) ca bin ngu nhin X.
(b) Tnh E(X), Var (X) v trung v ca bin ngu nhin X.
(c) t Y =

X, xc nh hm phn phi v hm mt xc sut ca bin ngu nhin Y .

18
Bi tp 3.15. Tui th ca mt loi cn trng no l mt bin ngu nhin lin tc X (n
v thng) c hm mt
f(x) =
_
_
_
kx
2
(4 x) khi 0 x 4
0 ni khc
(a) Tm hng s k.
(b) Tm F(x).
(c) Tm E(X), Var (X) v Mod(X).
(d) Tnh xc sut cn trng cht trc mt thng tui.
Bi tp 3.16. Bin ngu nhin lin tc X c hm mt
f(x) =
_
_
_
kx
2
e
2x
khi x 0
0 ni khc
(a) Tm hng s k.
(b) Tm hm phn phi xc sut F(x).
(c) Tm E(X), Var (X) v Mod(X).
Bi tp 3.17. C hai thng thuc A v B, trong :
- thng A c 20 l gm 2 l hng v 18 l tt
- thng B c 20 l gm 3 l hng v 17 l tt.
(a) Ly mi thng 1 l. Gi X l s l hng trong hai l ly ra. Tm hm mt ca X.
(b) Ly thng B ra 3 l. Gi Y l s l hng trong 3 l ly ra. Tm hm mt ca Y .
Bi tp 3.18. Mt thng ng 10 l thuc trong c 1 l hng. Ta kim tra tng l (khng
hon li) cho ti khi pht hin c l hng th dng. Gi X l s ln kim tra. Tm hm mt
ca X. Tnh k vng v phng sai.
Bi tp 3.19. Mt bin ngu nhin lin tc c hm mt xc sut sau:
f
X
(x) =
_
_
_
cxe
x/2
nu x 0
0 nu x < 0
19
(a) Tm hng s c.
(b) Tm hm phn phi xc sut F
X
(x).
(c) Tm trung bnh ca X
(d) Tm lch chun ca X.
(e) Tm Med(X).
Bi tp 3.20. Gi X l tui th ca con ngi. Mt cng trnh nghin cu cho bit hm mt
ca X l
f(x) =
_
_
_
cx
2
(100 x)
2
khi 0 x 100
0 khi x < 0 hay x > 100
(a) Xc nh hng s c.
(b) Tnh k vng v phng sai ca X.
(c) Tnh xc sut ca mt ngi c tui th 60
(d) Tnh xc sut ca mt ngi c tui th 60, bit rng ngi hin nay 50 tui.
Bi tp 3.21. Mt thit b gm 3 b phn hot ng c lp vi nhau, xc sut trong khong
thi gian t cc b phn hng tng ng bng 0.2; 0.3; 0.25. Gi X l s b phn b hng trong
khong thi gian t.
(a) Lp bng phn phi xc sut ca X.
(b) Vit biu thc hm phn phi ca X.
(c) Tnh P(0 < X 4) theo hai cch.
Bi tp 3.22. Mt mu 4 sn phm c rt ra khng hon li t 10 sn phm. Bit rng
trong 10 sn phm ny c 1 th phm. Tnh xc sut th phm c trong mu.
Bi tp 3.23. Mt ci hp cha 100 transistor loi A v 50 transistor loi B.
(a) Cc transistor c rt ra ln lt, ngu nhin v c hon li, cho n khi ly c
transistor loi B u tin. Tnh xc sut 9 hoc 10 transistor c rt ra.
(b) S lng cc transistor t nht phi rt ra, ngu nhin v c hon li, l bao nhiu nu
ta mun xc sut ly c ch loi A nh hn 1/3?
Bi tp 3.24. Gi X l s ln mt nht xut hin sau ba ln tung mt con xc xc.
(a) Lp bng phn phi xc sut ca X.
20
(b) Tnh xc sut c t nht mt ln c mt nht.
(c) Tnh xc sut c ti a hai ln mt nht.
(d) Tnh EX, V ar(X)
Bi tp 3.25. Xt tr chi, tung mt con xc xc ba ln: nu c ba ln c 6 nt th lnh 6
ngn , nu hai ln 6 nt th lnh 4 ngn , mt ln 6 nt th lnh 2 ngn , v nu khng c 6
nt th khng lnh g ht. Mi ln chi phi ng A ngn . Hi :
(a) A l bao nhiu th ngi chi v lu v di hu vn (gi l tr chi cng bng).
(b) A l bao nhiu th trung bnh mi ln ngi chi mt 1 ngn .
Bi tp 3.26. Mt h thng an ninh gm c 10 thnh phn hot ng c lp ln nhau. H
thng hot ng nu t nht 5 thnh phn hot ng. kim tra h thng c hot ng hay
khng, ngi ta kim tra nh k 4 thnh phn c chn ngu nhin (khng hon li). H thng
c bo co l hot ng nu t nht 3 trong 4 thnh phn c kim tra hot ng. Nu tht
s ch c 4 trong 10 thnh phn hot ng, th xc xut h thng c bo co l hot ng l
bao nhiu?
Bi tp 3.27. Trong mt tr chi nm phi tiu, ngi chi hng v mt tm bia ln c v
mt vng trn c bn knh 25 cm. Gi X l khong cch (theo cm) gia u phi tiu cm vo
bia v tm vng trn. Gi s rng
P(X x) =
_
_
_
cx
2
nu 0 x < 25
1 nu x 25
vi c l mt hng s no .
(a) Tnh
(i) hng s c
(ii) hm mt , f
X
(x), ca X
(iii) trung bnh ca X
(iv) xc sut P(X 10|X 5).
(b) Ngi chi s mt 1 (n v: ngn ng) cho mi ln phng v thng
_

_
10 nu X r
1 nu r < X 2r
0 nu 2r < X < 25
Vi gi tr no ca r th s tin trung bnh ngi chi t c bng 0.25?
21
Bi tp 3.28. Cho X l mt i lng ngu nhin c phn phi xc sut nh sau
X 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
P 0 a 2a 2a 3a a
2
2a
2
7a
2
+ a
(a) Xc nh a
(b) Tnh P(X 5), P(X < 3).
(c) Tnh k nh nht sao cho P(X k)
1
2
Bi tp 3.29. Cho hm mt ca bin ngu nhin X c dng
(a)
f(x) =
_
_
_
Ax khi x [0, 1]
0 khi x / [0, 1]
(b)
f(x) =
_
_
_
Asin x khi x [0, ]
0 khi x / [0, ]
(c)
f(x) =
_
_
_
Acos x khi x [0,
1
2
]
0 khi x / [0,
1
2
]
(d)
f(x) =
_
_
_
A
x
4
khi x 1
0 khi x < 1
Hy xc nh A. Tm hm phn phi xc sut ca X. Tnh EX, V ar(X) nu c.
Bi tp 3.30. Cho bin ngu nhin lin tc X c hm phn phi
F(x) =
_

_
0 khi x <

2
a + b sin x khi

2
x

2
1 khi x >

2
vi a, b l hng s.
22
(a) Tm a v b.
(b) Vi a v b tm c cu a), tnh hm mt f(x) ca X
v Mod(X), Med(X), P(X >

4
)
Bi tp 3.31. Cho X v Y l hai bin ngu nhin c lp v c phn phi xc sut tng ng
l
X 1 0 1 2
P 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2
Y 1 0 1
P 0.3 0.4 0.3
Tm phn phi xc sut ca X
2
, X + Y . Tnh k vng, phng sai ca X, X + Y .
Bi tp 3.32. Mt mu gm 4 bin ngu nhin X
1
, X
2
, X
3
, X
4
c lp vi nhau tng i mt.
Mi bin ngu nhin X
i
, i = 1, . . . , 4 c hm mt nh sau:
f(x) =
_
_
_
2x khi 0 < x < 1
0 ni khc
t Y = max{X
1
, X
2
, X
3
, X
4
} v Z = min{X
1
, X
2
, X
3
, X
4
}. Tm hm mt ca Y v Z.
Bi tp 3.33. Cho F
X
l hm phn phi xc sut ca bin ngu nhin X. Tm hm phn phi
xc sut ca bin ngu nhin
Y =
_
_
_
X
|X|
nu X = 0
1 nu X = 0
Bi tp 3.34. Tm hm phn phi ca
1
2
(X +|X|) nu hm phn phi ca X l F
X
.
Bi tp 3.35. Gi s X c hm phn phi lin tc F(x). Xc nh hm phn phi ca
Y = F(X).
Bi tp 3.36. Gi s F(x) l hm phn phi ca bin ngu nhin dng lin tc X, c tnh
cht
P(X < t + x|X > t) = P(X < x) vi x, t > 0
Chng minh rng F(x) = 1 e
x
vi x > 0.
Chng 4
Mt s phn phi xc sut thng dng
4.1 Phn phi Bernoulli, nh thc
Bi tp 4.1. C 8000 sn phm trong c 2000 sn phm khng t tiu chun k thut.
Ly ngu nhin (khng hon li) 10 sn phm. Tnh xc sut trong 10 sn phm ly ra c 2
sn phm khng t tiu chun.
Bi tp 4.2. Khi tim truyn mt loi huyt thanh, trung bnh c mt trng hp phn ng
trn 1000 trng hp. Dng loi huyt thanh ny tim cho 2000 ngi. Tnh xc sut
(a) c 3 trng hp phn ng,
(b) c nhiu nht 3 trng hp phn ng,
(c) c nhiu hn 3 trng hp phn ng.
Bi tp 4.3. Gi s t l sinh con trai v con gi l bng nhau v bng
1
2
. Mt gia nh c 4
ngi con. Tnh xc sut 4 a con gm
2 trai v 2 gi.
1 trai v 3 gi.
4 trai.
Bi tp 4.4. Mt nh my sn xut vi t l ph phm l 7%.
(a) Quan st ngu nhin 10 sn phm. Tnh xc sut
i) c ng mt ph phm.
ii) c t nht mt ph phm.
4.1 Phn phi Bernoulli, nh thc 24
iii) c nhiu nht mt ph phm.
(b) Hi phi quan st t nht bao nhiu sn phm xc sut nhn c t nht mt ph
phm 0.9
Bi tp 4.5. T l mt loi bnh bm sinh trong dn s l p = 0.01. Bnh ny cn s chm
sc c bit lc mi sinh. Mt nh bo sinh thng c 20 ca sinh trong mt tun. Tnh xc sut

(a) khng c trng hp no cn chm sc c bit,

(b) c ng mt trng hp cn chm sc c bit,
(c) c nhiu hn mt trng hp cn chm sc c bit.
Tnh bng quy lut nh thc ri dng quy lut Poisson so snh kt qu khi ta xp x phn
phi nh thc B(n; p) bng phn phi Poisson P(np).
Bi tp 4.6. T l c tri ng h ng c vin A trong mt cuc bu c l 60%. Ngi ta hi
kin 20 c tri c chn mt cch ngu nhin. Gi X l s ngi b phiu cho A trong 20 ngi
.
(a) Tm gi tr trung bnh, lch chun v Mod ca X.
(b) Tm P(X 10)
(c) Tm P(X > 12)
(d) Tm P(X = 11)
Bi tp 4.7. Gi s t l dn c mc bnh A trong vng l 10%. Chn ngu nhin 1 nhm
400 ngi.
(a) Vit cng thc tnh xc sut trong nhm c nhiu nht 50 ngi mc bnh A.
(b) Tnh xp x xc sut bng phn phi chun.
Bi tp 4.8. Mt my sn xut ra sn phm loi A vi xc sut 0.485. Tnh xc sut sao c
trong 200 sn phm do my sn xut ra c t nht 95 sn phm loi A.
Bi tp 4.9. Da vo s liu trong qu kh, ta c lng rng 85% cc sn phm ca mt
my sn xut no l th phm. Nu my ny sn xut 20 sn phm mi gi, th xc sut 8
hoc 9 th phm c sn xut trong mi khong thi gian 30 pht l bao nhiu?
Bi tp 4.10. Xc sut trng s l 1%. Mi tun mua mt v s. Hi phi mua v s lin tip
trong ti thiu bao nhiu tun c khng t hn 95% hy vng trng s t nht 1 ln.
4.1 Phn phi Bernoulli, nh thc 25
Bi tp 4.11. Trong tr chi "bu cua c ba con xc sc, mi con c su mt hnh l: bu,
cua, hu, nai, tm v g. Gi s c hai ngi, mt ngi chi v mt ngi lm ci. Nu mi
vn ngi chi ch t mt (mt trong cc hnh: bu, cua, hu, nai, tm v g) sau khi chi
nhiu vn th ngi no s thng trong tr chi ny. Gi s thm mi vn ngi chi t 1000
nu thng s c 5000 , nu thua s mt 1000 . Hi trung bnh mi vn ngi thng s thng
bao nhiu?
Bi tp 4.12. C ba l ging nhau: hai l loi I, mi l c 3 bi trng v 7 bi en; mt l loi
II c 4 bi trng v 6 bi en. Mt tr chi c t ra nh sau: Mi vn, ngi chi chn ngu
nhin mt l v ly ra hai bi t l . Nu ly c ng hai bi trng th ngi chi thng,
ngc li ngi chi thua.
(a) Ngi A chi tr chi ny, tnh xc sut ngi A thng mi vn.
(b) Gi s ngi A chi 10 vn, tnh s vn trung bnh ngi chi thng c v s vn ngi
A thng tin chc nht.
(c) Ngi A phi chi t nht bao nhiu vn xc sut thng t nht mt vn khng di
0,99.
Bi tp 4.13. Cho X v Y l hai i lng ngu nhin c lp.
(a) Gi s X B(1,
1
5
), Y B(2,
1
5
). Lp bng phn phi xc sut ca X + Y v kim tra
rng X + Y B(3,
1
5
)
(b) Gi s X B(1,
1
2
), Y B(2,
1
5
). Tm phn b xc sut ca X + Y . Chng minh rng
X + Y khng c phn b nh thc.
Bi tp 4.14. Hai cu th nm bng vo r. Cu th th nht nm hai ln vi xc sut trng
r ca mi ln l 0.6. Cu th th hai nm mt ln vi xc sut trng r l 0.7. Gi X l s ln
trng r ca c hai cu th. Lp bng phn phi xc sut ca X, bit rng kt qu ca cc ln
nm r l c lp vi nhau.
Bi tp 4.15. Bu in dng mt my t ng c a ch trn b th phn loi tng khu
vc gi i, my c kh nng c c 5000 b th trong 1 pht. Kh nng c sai 1 a ch trn
b th l 0,04% (xem nh vic c 5000 b th ny l 5000 php th c lp).
(a) Tnh s b th trung bnh mi pht my c sai.
(b) Tnh s b th tin chc nht trong mi pht my c sai.
(c) Tnh xc sut trong mt pht my c sai t nht 3 b th.
Bi tp 4.16. Mt bi thi trc nghim gm c 10 cu hi, mi cu c 4 phng n tr li,
trong ch c mt phng n ng. Gi s mi cu tr li ng c 4 im v cu tr li sai
b tr 2 im. Mt sinh vin km lm bi bng cch chn ngu nhin mt phng n cho mi
cu hi.
4.2 Phn phi Poisson 26
(a) Tnh xc sut hc sinh ny c 4 im.
(b) Tnh xc sut hc sinh ny b im m.
(c) Gi X l s cu tr li ng, tnh E(X) v V ar(X).
(d) Tnh s cu sinh vin ny c kh nng tr li ng ln nht.
Bi tp 4.17. Cc sn phm c sn xut trong mt dy chuyn. thc hin kim tra cht
lng, mi gi ngi ta rt ngu nhin khng hon li 10 sn phm t mt hp c 25 sn phm.
Qu trnh sn xut c bo co l t yu cu nu c khng qu mt sn phm l th phm.
(a) Nu tt c cc hp c kim tra u cha chnh xc hai th phm, th xc sut qu trnh
sn xut c bo co t yu cu t nht 7 ln trong mt ngy lm vic 8 gi l bao
nhiu?
(b) S dng phn phi Poisson xp x xc sut c tnh trong cu (a).
(c) Bit rng ln kim tra cht lng cui cng trong cu (a), qu trnh sn xut c bo
co t yu cu. Hi xc sut mu 10 sn phm tng ng khng cha th phm l bao
nhiu?
4.2 Phn phi Poisson
Bi tp 4.18. Mt trung tm bu in nhn c trung bnh 3 cuc in thoi trong mi
pht. Tnh xc sut trung tm ny nhn c 1 cuc, 2 cuc, 3 cuc gi trong 1 pht, bit
rng s cuc gi trong mt pht c phn phi Poisson.
Bi tp 4.19. Tnh P(X 1|X 1) nu X P(5)
Bi tp 4.20. Cho X, Y l cc bin ngu nhin c lp, X P(
1
), Y P(
2
)
(a) Tnh xc sut P(X + Y = n)
(b) Tnh xc sut P(X = k|X + Y = n)
Bi tp 4.21. Mt ca hng cho thu xe t nhn thy rng s ngi n thu xe t vo
ngy th by cui tun l mt i lng ngu nhin X c phn phi Poisson vi tham s = 2.
Gi s ca hng c 4 chic t.
(a) Tm xc sut khng phi tt c 4 chic t u c thu.
(b) Tm xc sut tt c 4 chic t u c thu.
(c) Tm xc sut ca hng khng p ng c yu cu.
4.2 Phn phi Poisson 27
(d) Trung bnh c bao nhiu t c thu.
(e) Ca hng cn c t nht bao nhiu t xc sut khng p ng c nhu cu thu b
hn 2%
Bi tp 4.22. Mt tng i bu in c cc cuc in thoi gi n xut hin ngu nhin, c
lp vi nhau v c tc trung bnh 2 cuc gi trong 1 pht. Tm xc sut
(a) c ng 5 cuc in thoi trong 2 pht,
(b) khng c cuc in thoi no trong khong thi gian 30 giy,
(c) c t nht 1 cuc in thoi trong khong thi gian 10 giy.
Bi tp 4.23. Cc cuc gi in n tng i tun theo phn phi Poisson vi mc trn mi
pht. T kinh nghim c c trong qu kh, ta bit rng xc sut nhn c chnh xc mt
cuc gi trong mt pht bng ba ln xc sut khng nhn c cuc gi no trong cng thi
gian.
(a) Gi X l s cuc gi nhn c trong mi pht. Tnh xc sut P(2 X 4).
(b) Ta xt 100 khong thi gian mt pht lin tip v gi U l s khong thi gian mt pht
khng nhn c cuc gi in no. Tnh P(U 1).
Bi tp 4.24. Ti mt im bn v my bay, trung bnh trong 10 pht c 4 ngi n mua
v. Tnh xc sut :
(a) Trong 10 pht c 7 ngi n mua v.
(b) Trong 10 pht c khng qu 3 ngi n mua v.
Bi tp 4.25. Cc khch hng n quy thu ngn, theo phn phi Poisson, vi s lng trung
bnh 5 ngi mi pht. Tnh xc sut xut hin t nht 10 khch hng trong khong thi gian
3 pht.
Bi tp 4.26. S khch hng n quy thu ngn tun theo phn phi Poisson vi tham s
= 1 trong mi khong 2 pht. Tnh xc sut thi gian i n khi khch hng tip theo xut
hin (t khch hng trc ) nh hn 10 pht.
Bi tp 4.27. S lng nho kh trong mt ci bnh quy bt k c phn phi Poisson vi tham
s . Hi gi tr l bao nhiu nu ta mun xc sut c nhiu nht hai bnh quy, trong mt
hp c 20 bnh, khng cha nho kh l 0.925?
Bi tp 4.28. Mt trm cho thu xe Taxi c 3 chic xe. Hng ngy trm phi np thu 8 USD
cho 1 chic xe (bt k xe c c thu hay khng). Mi chic c cho thu vi gi 20USD.
Gi s s xe c yu cu cho thu ca trm trong 1 ngy l i lng ngu nhin c phn phi
Poisson vi = 2.8.
4.3 Phn phi chun 28
(a) Tnh s tin trung bnh trm thu c trong mt ngy.
(b) Gii bi ton trn trong trng hp trm c 4 chic xe.
(c) Theo bn, trm nn c 3 hay 4 chic xe?
Bi tp 4.29. Ta c 10 my sn xut (c lp nhau), mi my sn xut ra 2% th phm
(khng t chun).
(a) Trung bnh c bao nhiu sn phm c sn xut bi my u tin trc khi n to ra
th phm u tin?
(b) Ta ly ngu nhin mt sn phm t mi my sn xut. Hi xc sut nhiu nht hai th
phm trong 10 sn phm ny l bao nhiu?
(c) Lm li cu (b) bng cch s dng xp x Poisson.
(d) Phi ly ra t nht bao nhiu sn phm c sn xut bi my u tin xc sut t
c t nht mt th phm khng nh hn 1/2 (gi s rng cc sn phm l c lp vi
nhau)?
4.3 Phn phi chun
Bi tp 4.30. Cc kt qu ca bi kim tra ch s thng minh (IQ) cho cc hc sinh ca mt
trng tiu hc cho thy im IQ ca cc hc sinh ny tun theo phn phi chun vi cc tham
s l = 100 v
2
= 225. T l hc sinh c im IQ nh hn 91 hoc ln hn 130 l bao nhiu?
Bi tp 4.31. Gi s chiu di X (n v tnh m) ca mt ni xe bt k tun theo phn
phi chun N(, 0.01
2
).
(a) Mt ngi n ng s hu mt chic xe hi cao cp c chiu di ln hn 15% chiu di
trung bnh ca mt ch u xe. Hi t l ch u xe c th s dng l bao nhiu?
(b) Gi s rng = 4. Hi chiu di ca xe l bao nhiu nu ta mun ch ca n c th s
dng 90% ch u xe?
Bi tp 4.32. ng knh ca mt chi tit my do mt my tin t ng sn xut c phn
phi chun vi trung bnh = 50 mm v lch chun = 0.05 mm. Chi tit my c xem
l t yu cu nu ng knh khng sai qu 0.1 mm.
(a) Tnh t l sn phm t yu cu.
(b) Ly ngu nhin 3 sn phm. Tnh xc sut c t nht mt sn phm t yu cu.
4.3 Phn phi chun 29
Bi tp 4.33. Trng lng X (tnh bng gam) mt loi tri cy c phn phi chun N(,
2
),
vi = 500 (gam) v
2
= 16 (gam
2
). Tri cy thu hoch c phn loi theo trng lng nh
sau:
(a) loi 1 : trn 505 gam,
(b) loi 2 : t 495 n 505 gam,
(c) loi 3 : di 495 gam.
Tnh t l mi loi.
Bi tp 4.34. Mt cng ty kinh doanh mt hng A d nh s p dng mt trong 2 phng
n kinh doanh. K hiu X
1
l li nhun thu c khi p dng phng n th 1, X
2
l li nhun
thu c khi p dng phng n th 2. X
1
, X
2
u c tnh theo n v triu ng/ thng) v
X
1
N(140, 2500), X
2
N(200, 3600). Nu bit rng, cng ty tn ti v pht trin th li
nhun thu c t mt hng kinh doanh A phi t t nht 80 triu ng/thng. Hy cho bit
cng ty nn p dng phng n no kinh doanh mt hng A? V sao?
Bi tp 4.35. Nghin cu chiu cao ca nhng ngi trng thnh, ngi ta nhn thy rng
chiu cao tun theo quy lut phn b chun vi trung bnh l 175 cm v lch tiu chun
4 cm. Hy xc nh:
(a) t l ngi trng thnh c tm vc trn 180 cm.
(b) t l ngi trng thnh c chiu cao t 166 cm n 177 cm.
(c) tm h
0
, nu bit rng 33% ngi trng thnh c tm vc di mc h
0
.
(d) gii hn bin ng chiu cao ca 90% ngi trng thnh xung quanh gi tr trung bnh
ca n.
Bi tp 4.36. Ta quan tm n tui th X (theo nm) ca mt thit b. T kinh nghim trong
qu kh, ta c lng xc sut thit b loi ny cn hot ng tt sau 9 nm l 0.1.
(a) Ta a ra m hnh sau cho hm mt ca X
f
X
(x) =
a
(x + 1)
b
vi x 0
trong a > 0 v b > 1. Tm hai hng s a, b.
(b) Nu ta a ra mt phn phi chun vi trung bnh = 7 cho X, th gi tr tham s l
bao nhiu?
(c) Ta xt 10 thit b loi ny mt cch c lp. Tnh xc sut 8 hoc 9 thit b loi ny c
tui i hot ng t hn 9 nm.
4.3 Phn phi chun 30
Bi tp 4.37. Entropy H ca mt bin ngu nhin lin tc X c nh ngha l H =
E[ln f
X
(X)] vi f
X
l hm mt xc sut ca bin ngu nhin X v ln l logarit t nhin.
Tnh entropy ca bin ngu nhin Gauss vi trung bnh 0 v phng sai
2
= 2.
Chng 5
L thuyt mu
Bi tp 5.1. S liu v chiu cao ca cc sinh vin n (n v: inch) trong mt lp hc nh
sau:
62 64 66 67 65 68 61 65 67 65 64 63 67
68 64 66 68 69 65 67 62 66 68 67 66 65
69 65 70 65 67 68 65 63 64 67 67
(a) Tnh chiu cao trung bnh v lch tiu chun.
(b) Trung v ca chiu cao sinh vin lp ny l bao nhiu?
Bi tp 5.2. Cho b d liu sau:
4.2 4.7 4.7 5.0 3.8 3.6 3.0 5.1 3.1 3.8
4.8 4.0 5.2 4.3 2.8 2.0 2.8 3.3 4.8 5.0
Tnh trung bnh mu, phng sai mu v lch tiu chun.
Bi tp 5.3. Cho b d liu sau:
43 47 51 48 52 50 46 49
45 52 46 51 44 49 46 51
49 45 44 50 48 50 49 50
Tnh trung bnh mu, phng sai mu v lch tiu chun.
Bi tp 5.4. Xt biu thc y =

n
i=1
(x
i
a)
2
. Vi a no th y t gi tr nh nht?
32
Bi tp 5.5. Xt y
i
= a + bx
i
, i = 1, . . . , n v a, b l cc hng s khc 0. Hy tm mi lin h
gia x v y, s
x
v s
y
.
Bi tp 5.6. Gi s ta c mu c n gm cc gi tr quan trc x
1
, x
2
, . . . , x
n
v tnh c
trung bnh mu x
n
v phng sai mu s
2
n
. Quan trc thm gi tr th (n + 1) l x
n+1
, gi x
n+1
v s
2
n+1
ln lt l trung bnh mu v phng sai mu ng vi mu c (n + 1) quan trc.
(a) Tnh x
n+1
theo x
n
v x
n+1
.
(b) Chng t rng
ns
2
n+1
= (n 1)s
2
n
+
n(x
n+1
x
n
)
2
n + 1
Bi tp 5.7. T bng cc s ngu nhin ngi ta ly ra 150 s. Cc s c phn thnh
10 khong nh sau:
x
i
1 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
n
i
16 15 19 13 14 19 14 11 13 16
Xc nh trung bnh mu v phng sai mu.
Bi tp 5.8. Kho st thu nhp ca cng nhn mt cng ty, cho bi bng sau (n v ngn
ng).
Thu nhp [500, 600] [600, 700] [700, 800] [800, 900] [900, 1000] [1000, 1100][1100, 1200]
S ngi 2 10 15 30 25 14 4
Xc nh thu nhp trung bnh, lch chun.
Bi tp 5.9. o lng huyt tng ca 8 ngi mnh kho, ta c
2, 863, 372, 752, 623, 503, 253, 123, 15
Hy xc nh cc c trng mu.
Bi tp 5.10. Quan st thi gian cn thit sn xut mt chi tit my, ta thu c s liu
cho bng sau:
33
Khong thi gian (pht) S ln quan st
20-25 2
25-30 14
30-35 26
35-40 32
40-45 14
45-50 8
50-55 4
Tnh trung bnh mu x, phng sai mu s
2
.
Bi tp 5.11. o di ca mt loi trc xe, ta c kt qu
Nhm 18.4-18.6 18.6-18.8 18.8-19 19-19.2 19.2-19.4 19.4-19.6 19.6-19.8
n
i
1 4 20 41 19 8 4
Hy tnh di trung bnh v phng sai mu.
Chng 6
c lng tham s thng k
6.1 c lng trung bnh tng th
Bi tp 6.1. Trn tp mu gm 100 s liu, ngi ta tnh c x = 0.1 s = 0.014. Xc nh
khong tin cy 95% cho gi tr trung bnh tht.
Bi tp 6.2. Chn ngu nhin 36 cng nhn ca x nghip th thy lng trung bnh l 380
ngn /thng. Gi s lng cng nhn tun theo phn phi chun vi = 14 ngn ng. Vi
tin cy 95%, hy c lng mc lng trung bnh ca cng nhn trong ton x nghip.
Bi tp 6.3. o sc bn chu lc ca mt loi ng th nghim, ngi ta thu c b s liu
sau
4500, 6500, 5200, 4800, 4900, 5125, 6200, 5375
T kinh nghim ngh nghip, ngi ta cng bit rng sc bn c phn phi chun vi lch
chun = 300. Hy xy dng khong tin cy 90% cho sc bn trung bnh ca loi ng trn.
Bi tp 6.4. Sn lng mi ngy ca mt phn xng l bin ngu nhin tun theo lut chun.
Kt qu thng k ca 9 ngy cho ta:
27, 26, 21, 28, 25, 30, 26, 23, 26
Hy xc nh cc khong tin cy 95% cho sn lng trung bnh.
Bi tp 6.5. Quan st chiu cao X (cm) ca mt s ngi, ta ghi nhn
x (cm) 140-145 145-150 150-155 155-160 160-165 165-170
S ngi 1 3 7 9 5 2
(a) Tnh x v s
2
6.1 c lng trung bnh tng th 35
(b) c lng tin cy 0.95
Bi tp 6.6. im trung bnh mn ton ca 100 th sinh d thi vo trng A l 5 vi lch
chun l 2.5.
(a) c lng im trung bnh mn ton ca ton th th sinh vi tin cy l 95%.
(b) Vi sai s c lng im trung bnh cu a) l 0.25 im, hy xc nh tin cy.
Bi tp 6.7. Tui th ca mt loi bng n c bit theo quy lut chun vi lch chun
100 gi.
(a) Chn ngu nhin 100 bng n th nghim, thy mi bng tui th trung bnh l 1000
gi. Hy c lng tui th trung bnh ca bng n x nghip A sn xut vi tin cy
l 95%.
(b) Vi dung sai ca c lng tui th trung bnh l 15 gi, hy xc nh tin cy.
(c) dung sai ca c lng tui th trung bnh khng qu 25 gi vi tin cy l 95% th
cn phi th nghim t nht bao nhiu bng.
Bi tp 6.8. Khi lng cc bao bt m ti mt ca hng lng thc tun theo phn phi
chun. Kim tra 20 bao, thy khi lng trung bnh ca mi bao bt m l 48kg, v phng sai
mu s
2
= (0.5 kg)
2
.
(a) Vi tin cy 95% hy c lng khi lng trung bnh ca mt bao bt m thuc ca
hng.
(b) Vi dung sai ca c lng cu a) l 0.284 kg, hy xc nh tin cy.
(c) dung sai ca c lng cu a) khng qu 160 g vi tin cy l 95%, cn phi kim
tra t nht bao nhiu bao?
Bi tp 6.9. o ng knh ca mt chi tit my do mt my tin t ng sn xut, ta ghi
nhn c s liu nh sau:
x 12.00 12.05 12.10 12.15 12.20 12.25 12.30 12.35 12.40
n 2 3 7 9 10 8 6 5 3
vi n ch s trng hp tnh theo tng gi tr ca X (mm).
(a) Tnh trung bnh mu x v lch chun s ca mu.
(b) c lng ng knh trung bnh tin cy 0.95.
6.2 c lng t l tng th 36
(c) Nu mun sai s c lng khng qu = 0.02 mm tin cy 0.95 th phi quan st t
nht my trng hp.
Bi tp 6.10. Ngi ta o ion Na+ trn mt s ngi v ghi nhn li c kt qu nh sau
129, 132, 140, 141, 138, 143, 133, 137, 140, 143, 138, 140
(a) Tnh trung bnh mu x v phng sai mu s
2
.
(b) c lng trung bnh ca tng th tin cy 0.95.
(c) Nu mun sai s c lng trung bnh khng qu = 1 vi tin cy 0.95 th phi quan
st mu gm t nht my ngi?
Bi tp 6.11. Quan st tui th x (gi) ca mt s bng n do x nghip A sn xut, ta ghi
nhn
x 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800
n 10 14 16 17 18 16 16 12 9
vi n ch s trng hp theo tng gi tr ca x.
(a) Tnh trung bnh mu x v lch chun mu s.
(b) c lng tui th trung bnh ca bng n tin cy 0.95.
(c) Nu mun sai s c lng khng qu = 30 gi vi tin cy 0.99 th phi quan st mu
gm t nht my bng n?
Bi tp 6.12. Chiu di ca mt loi sn phm c xut khu hng lot l bin ngu nhin
phn phi chun vi = 100 mm v
2
= 4
2
mm
2
. Kim tra ngu nhin 25 sn phm. Kh
nng chiu di trung bnh ca s sn phm kim tra nm trong khong t 98mm n 101mm l
bao nhiu?
6.2 c lng t l tng th
Bi tp 6.13. Trc bu c, ngi ta phng vn ngu nhin 2000 c tri th thy c 1380 ngi
ng h mt ng c vin K. Vi tin cy 95%, hi ng c vin thu c ti thiu bao nhiu
phn trm phiu bu?
Bi tp 6.14. Mt loi bnh c t l t vong l 0.01. Mun chng t mt loi thuc c hiu
nghim (ngha l h thp c t l t vong nh hn 0.005) tin cy 0.95 th phi th thuc
trn t nht bao nhiu ngi?
6.3 Tng hp 37
Bi tp 6.15. c lng xc sut mc bnh gan vi tin cy 90% v sai s khng vt
qu 2% th cn phi khm t nht bao nhiu ngi, bit rng t l mc bnh gan thc nghim
cho bng 0,9.
Bi tp 6.16. Gi s quan st 100 ngi thy c 20 ngi b bnh st xut huyt. Hy c
lng t l bnh st xut huyt tin cy 97%. Nu mun sai s c lng khng qu 3%
tin cy 95% th phi quan st t nht bao nhiu ngi?
Bi tp 6.17. Mt loi thuc mi em iu tr cho 50 ngi b bnh B, kt qu c 40 ngi
khi bnh.
(a) c lng t l khi bnh p nu dng thuc iu tr vi tin cy 0.95 v 0.99.
(b) Nu mun sai s c lng khng qu 0.02 tin cy 0.95 th phi quan st t nht my
trng hp?
Bi tp 6.18. Ta mun c lng t l vin thuc b sc m p trong mt l thuc ln.
(a) Nu mun sai s c lng khng qu 0.01 vi tin cy 0.95 th phi quan st t nht
my vin?
(b) Quan st ngu nhin 200 vin, thy c 18 vin b st m. Hy c lng p tin cy
0.95.
(c) Khi , nu mun sai s c lng khng qu 0.01 vi tin cy 0.95 th phi quan st t
nht my vin?
Bi tp 6.19. Mun bit trong ao c bao nhiu c, ngi ta bt ln 2000 con, nh du xong
li th xung h. Sau mt thi gian, ngi ta bt ln 500 con v thy c 20 con c c nh du
ca ln bt trc. Da vo kt qu hy c lng s c c trong h vi tin cy 95%.
Bi tp 6.20. c th d on c s lng chim thng ngh ti vn nh mnh, ngi
ch bt 89 con, em eo khoen cho chng ri th i. Sau mt thi gian, ng bt ngu nhin
c 120 con v thy c 7 con c eo khoen. Hy d on s chim gip ng ch vn tin
cy 99%.
6.3 Tng hp
Bi tp 6.21. Cn th 100 qu cam, ta c b s liu sau:
Khi lng (g) 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40
S qu 2 3 15 26 28 6 8 8 4
6.3 Tng hp 38
(a) Hy c lng khi lng trung bnh cc qu cam tin cy 95%.
(b) Cam c khi lng di 34 g c coi l cam loi 2. Tm khong c lng cho t l loi
2 vi tin cy 90%.
Bi tp 6.22. em cn mt s tri cy va thu hoch, ta c kt qu sau:
X (gam) 200-210 210-220 220-230 230-240 240-250
S tri 12 17 20 18 15
(a) Tm khong c lng ca trng lng trung bnh ca tri cy vi tin cy 0.95 v
0.99.
(b) Nu mun sai s c lng khng qu = 2 gam tin cy 99% th phi quan st t
nht bao nhiu tri?
(c) Tri cy c khi lng X 230 gam c xp vo loi A. Hy tm khong c lng cho
t l p ca tri cy loi A tin cy 0.95 v 0.99. Nu mun sai s c lng khng qu
0.04 tin cy 0.99 th phi quan st t nht my trng hp?
Chng 7
Kim nh gi thuyt thng k
7.1 So snh k vng vi mt s cho trc
Bi tp 7.1. Gim c mt x nghip cho bit lng trung bnh ca 1 cng nhn thuc x
nghip l 380 ngn /thng. Chn ngu nhin 36 cng nhn thy lng trung bnh l 350 ngn
/thng, vi lch chun s = 40. Li bo co ca gim c c tin cy c khng, vi mc c
ngha l = 5%.
Bi tp 7.2. Trong thp nin 80, trng lng trung bnh ca thanh nin l 48 kg. Nay xc
nh li trng lng y, ngi ta chn ngu nhin 100 thanh nin o trng lng trung bnh l
50 kg v phng sai mu s
2
= (10 kg)
2
. Th xem trng lng thanh nin hin nay phi chng
c thay i, vi mc c ngha l 1%?
Bi tp 7.3. Mt ca hng thc phm nhn thy thi gian va qua trung bnh mt khch
hng mua 25 ngn ng thc phm trong ngy. Nay ca hng chn ngu nhin 15 khch hng
thy trung bnh mt khch hng mua 24 ngn ng trong ngy v phng sai mu l s
2
=
(2 ngn ng)
2
.
Vi mc ngha l 5%, kim nh xem c phi sc mua ca khch hng hin nay thc s gim
st hay khng. Bit rng sc mua ca khch hng c phn phi chun.
Bi tp 7.4. i vi ngi Vit Nam, lng huyt sc t trung bnh l 138.3 g/l. Khm cho 80
cng nhn nh my c tip xc ho cht, thy huyt sc t trung bnh x = 120 g/l; s = 15 g/l.
T kt qu trn, c th kt lun lng huyt sc t trung bnh ca cng nhn nh my ho cht
ny thp hn mc chung hay khng? Kt lun vi = 0.05.
Bi tp 7.5. Trong iu kin chn nui bnh thng, lng sa trung bnh ca 1 con b l
14 kg/ngy. Nghi ng iu kin chn nui km i lm cho lng sa gim xung, ngi ta iu
tra ngu nhin 25 con v tnh c lng sa trung bnh ca 1 con trong 1 ngy l 12.5 v
lch chun s = 2.5. Vi mc ngha = 0.05. hy kt lun iu nghi ng ni trn. Gi thit
lng sa b l 1 bin ngu nhin chun.
7.1 So snh k vng vi mt s cho trc 40
Bi tp 7.6. Tin lng trung bnh ca cng nhn trc y l 400 ngn /thng. xt xem
tin lng hin nay so vi mc trc y th no, ngi ta iu tra 100 cng nhn v tnh c
x = 404.8 ngn /thng v s = 20 ngn /thng. Vi = 1%
(a) Nu lp gi thit 2 pha v gi thit 1 pha th kt qu kim nh nh th no?
(b) Ging cu a, vi x = 406 ngn /thng v s = 20 ngn /thng.
Bi tp 7.7. Mt my ng gi cc sn phm c khi lng 1 kg. Nghi ng my hot ng
khng bnh thng, ngi ta chn ra mt mu ngu nhin gm 100 sn phm th thy nh sau:
Khi lng 0.95 0.97 0.99 1.01 1.03 1.05
S gi 9 31 40 15 3 2
Vi mc ngha 0.05, hy kt lun v nghi ng trn.
Bi tp 7.8. Trng lng trung bnh khi xut chung mt tri chn nui trc l 3.3 kg/con.
Nm nay ngi ta s dng mt loi thc n mi, cn th 15 con khi xut chung ta c cc
s liu nh sau:
3.25, 2.50, 4.00, 3.75, 3.80, 3.90, 4.02, 3.60, 3.80, 3.20, 3.82, 3.40, 3.75, 4.00, 3.50
Gi thit trng lng g l i lng ngu nhin phn phi theo quy lut chun.
(a) Vi mc ngha = 0.05. Hy cho kt lun v tc dng ca loi thc n ny?
(b) Nu tri chn nui bo co trng lng trung bnh khi xut chung l 3.5 kg/con th c
chp nhn c khng? ( = 0.05).
Bi tp 7.9. o cholesterol (n v mg%) cho mt nhm ngi, ta ghi nhn li c
Chol. 150 160 160 - 170 170 - 180 180 - 190 190 - 200 200 - 210
S ngi 3 9 11 3 2 1
Cho rng cholesterol tun theo phn phi chun.
(a) Tnh trung bnh mu x v phng sai mu s
2
.
(b) Tm khong c lng cho trung bnh cholesterol trong dn s tin cy 0.95.
(c) C ti liu cho bit lng cholesterol trung bnh l
0
= 175 mg%. Gi tr ny c ph hp
vi mu quan st khng? (kt lun vi = 0.05).
7.1 So snh k vng vi mt s cho trc 41
Bi tp 7.10. Quan st s hoa hng bn ra trong mt ngy ca mt ca hng bn hoa sau
mt thi gian, ngi ta ghi c s liu sau:
S hoa hng (o) 12 13 15 16 17 18 19
S ngy 3 2 7 7 3 2 1
Gi thit rng s hoa bn ra trong ngy c phn phi chun.
(a) Tm trung bnh mu x, phng sai mu s
2
.
(b) Sau khi tnh ton, ng ch ca hng ni rng nu trung bnh mt ngy khng bn c 15
o hoa th chng th ng ca cn hn. Da vo s liu trn, anh (ch) hy kt lun gip
ng ch ca hng xem c nn tip tc bn hay khng mc ngha = 0.05.
(c) Gi s nhng ngy bn c t 13 n 17 o hng l nhng ngy bnh thng. Hy c
lng t l ca nhng ngy bnh thng ca ca hng tin cy 90%.
Bi tp 7.11. Mt x nghip c mt s rt ln cc sn phm bng thp vi s khuyt tt
trung bnh mi sn phm l 3. Ngi ta ci tin cch sn xut v kim tra 36 sn phm. Kt
qu nh sau:
S khuyt tt trn sn phm 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
S sn phm tng ng 7 4 5 7 6 6 1
Gi s s khuyt tt ca cc sn phm c phn phi chun.
(a) Hy c lng s khuyt tt trung bnh mi sn phm sau khi ci tin, vi tin cy
90%.
(b) Hy cho kt lun v hiu qu ca vic ci tin sn xut mc ngha 0.05.
Bi tp 7.12. nh gi tc dng ca mt ch n bi dng m du hiu quan st l s
hng cu. Ngi ta m s hng cu ca 20 ngi trc v sau khi n bi dng:
x
i
32 40 38 42 41 35 36 47 50 30
y
i
40 45 42 50 52 43 48 45 55 34
x
i
38 45 43 36 50 38 42 41 45 44
y
i
32 54 58 30 60 35 50 48 40 50
Vi mc ngha = 0.05, c th kt lun g v tc dng ca ch n bi dng ny?
7.2 So snh hai k vng 42
Bi tp 7.13. Gi s ta mun xc nh xem hiu qu ca ch n king i vi vic gim
trng lng nh th no. 20 ngi qu bo thc hin ch n king. Trng lng ca tng
ngi trc khi n king (X kg) v sau khi n king (Y kg) c cho nh sau:
X 80 78 85 70 90 78 92 88 75 75
Y 75 77 80 70 84 74 85 82 80 65
X 63 72 89 76 77 71 83 78 82 90
Y 62 71 83 72 82 71 79 76 83 81
Kim tra xem ch n king c tc dng lm thay i trng lng hay khng ( = 0.05).
7.2 So snh hai k vng
Bi tp 7.14. Mt nh pht trin sn phm quan tm n vic gim thi gian kh ca sn.
V vy hai cng thc sn c em th nghim. Cng thc 1 l cng thc c cc thnh phn
chun v cng thc 2 c thm mt thnh phn lm kh mi c cho rng s lm gim thi
gian kh ca sn. T cc th nghim ngi ta thy rng
1
=
2
= 8 pht. 10 vt c sn
vi cng thc 1 v 10 vt khc c sn vi cng thc 2. Thi gian kh trung bnh ca tng
mu l x
1
= 121 pht v x
2
= 112 pht. Nh pht trin sn phm c th rt ra kt lun g v
nh hng ca thnh phn lm kh mi? Vi mc ngha 5%.
Bi tp 7.15. Tc chy ca hai loi cht n lng c dng lm nhin liu trong tu v tr
c nghin cu. Ngi ta bit rng lch chun ca tc chy ca hai loi nhin liu bng
nhau v bng 3 cm/s. Hai mu ngu nhin kch thc n
1
= 20 v n
2
= 20 c th nghim;
trung bnh mu tc chy l x
1
= 18 cm/s v x
2
= 24 cm/s. Vi mc ngha = 0.05 hy
kim nh gi thuyt hai loi cht n lng ny c cng tc t chy.
Bi tp 7.16. Theo di gi c phiu ca 2 cng ty A v B trong vng 31 ngy ngi ta tnh
c cc gi tr sau
x s
Cng ty A 37.58 1.50
Cng ty B 38.24 2.20
Gi thit rng gi c phiu ca hai cng ty A v B l hai bin ngu nhin phn phi theo quy
lut chun. Hy cho bit ngha k vng ca cc bin ngu nhin ni trn? Hy cho bit c s
khc bit thc s v gi c phiu trung bnh ca hai cng ty A v B khng? Vi mc ngha
= 5%
7.2 So snh hai k vng 43
Bi tp 7.17. Hm lng ng trong mu ca cng nhn sau 5 gi lm vic vi my siu cao
tn o c hai thi im trc v sau 5 gi lm vic. Ta c kt qu sau:
Trc: n
1
= 50 x = 60 mg% s
x
= 7
Sau: n
2
= 40 y = 52 mg% s
y
= 9.2
Vi mc ngha = 0.05, c th khng nh hm lng ng trong mu sau 5 gi lm vic
gim i hay khng?
Bi tp 7.18. Trng cng mt ging la trn hai tha rung nh nhau v bn hai loi phn
khc nhau. n ngy thu hoch ta c kt qu nh sau:
Tha th nht ly mu 1000 bng la thy s ht trung bnh ca mi bng l x = 70 ht
v s
x
= 10.
Tha th hai ly mu 500 bng thy s ht trung bnh mi bng l y = 72 ht v s
y
= 20.
Hi s khc nhau gia X v Y l ngu nhin hay bn cht, vi = 0.05?
Bi tp 7.19. so snh trng lng trung bnh ca tr s sinh thnh th v nng thn,
ngi ta th cn trng lng ca 10000 chu v thu c kt qu sau y:
Vng S chu c cn Trng lng trung bnh lch chun mu
Nng thn 8000 3.0 kg 0.3 kg
Thnh th 2000 3.2 kg 0.2 kg
Vi mc ngha = 0.05 c th coi trng lng trung bnh ca tr s sinh thnh th cao hn
nng thn hay khng? (Gi thit trng lng tr s sinh l bin ngu nhin chun).
Bi tp 7.20. so snh nng lc hc ton v vt l ca hc sinh, ngi ta kim tra ngu
nhin 8 em bng hai bi ton v vt l. Kt qu cho bi bng di y (X l im ton, Y l
im l):
X 15 20 16 22 24 18 20 14
Y 15 22 14 25 19 20 24 16
Gi s X v Y u c phn phi chun. Hy so snh im trung bnh gia X v Y , mc ngha
5%.
Bi tp 7.21. Hai my c s dng rt nc vo cc bnh. Ngi ta ly mu ngu nhin
10 bnh do my th nht v 10 bnh do my th hai th c kt qu sau:
7.3 So snh t l vi mt s cho trc 44
My 1 16.03 16.01 16.04 15.96 16.05 15.98 16.05 16.02 16.02 15.99
My 2 16.02 16.03 15.97 16.04 15.96 16.02 16.01 16.01 15.99 16.00
Vi mc ngha = 0.05 c th ni rng hai my rt nc vo bnh nh nhau khng?
Bi tp 7.22. nghin cu nh hng ca mt loi thuc, ngi ta cho 10 bnh nhn ung
thuc. Ln khc h cng cho bnh nhn ung thuc nhng l thuc gi. Kt qu th nghim thu
c nh sau:
Bnh nhn 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
S gi ng c thuc 6.1 7.0 8.2 7.6 6.5 8.4 6.9 6.7 7.4 5.8
S gi ng vi thuc gi 5.2 7.9 3.9 4.7 5.3 5.4 4.2 6.1 3.8 6.3
Gi s s gi ng ca bnh nhn tun theo phn phi chun. Vi mc ngha 5%, hy kt lun
v nh hng ca loi thuc trn.
Bi tp 7.23. Quan st sc nng ca b trai (X) v b gi (Y) lc s sinh (n v gam), ta c
kt qu
Trng lng 3000-3200 3200-3400 3400-3600 3600-3800 3800-4000
S b trai 1 3 8 10 3
S b gi 2 10 10 5 1
(a) Tnh x, y, s
2
x
, s
2
y
.
(b) So snh cc k vng
X
,
Y
(kt lun vi = 5%).
(c) Nhp hai mu li. Tnh trung bnh v lch chun ca mu nhp. Dng mu nhp
c lng sc nng trung bnh ca tr s sinh tin cy 95%.
7.3 So snh t l vi mt s cho trc
Bi tp 7.24. Trong mt vng dn c c 18 b trai v 28 b gi mc bnh B. Hi rng t l
nhim bnh ca b trai v b gi c nh nhau khng? (kt lun vi = 0.05 v gi s rng s
lng b trai v b gi trong vng tng ng nhau, v rt nhiu).
Bi tp 7.25. Mt my sn xut t ng vi t l chnh phm l 98%. Sau mt thi gian hot
ng, ngi ta nghi ng t l trn b gim. Kim tra ngu nhin 500 sn phm thy c 28
ph phm, vi = 0.05 hy kim tra xem cht lng lm vic ca my c cn c nh trc
hay khng?
7.4 So snh hai t l 45
Bi tp 7.26. o huyt sc t cho 50 cng nhn nng trng thy c 60% mc di 110 g/l.
S liu chung ca khu vc ny l 30% mc di 110 g/l. Vi mc ngha = 0.05, c th kt
lun cng nhn nng trng c t l huyt sc t di 110 g/l cao hn mc chung hay khng?
Bi tp 7.27. Theo mt ngun tin th t l h dn thch xem dn ca trn Tivi l 80%. Thm
d 36 h dn thy c 25 h thch xem dn ca. Vi mc c ngha l 5%. Kim nh xem ngun
tin ny c ng tin cy khng?
Bi tp 7.28. Mt my sn sut t ng, lc u t l sn phm loi A l 20%. Sau khi p
dng mt phng php ci tin sn xut mi, ngi ta ly 40 mu, mi mu gm 10 sn phm
kim tra. Kt qu kim tra cho bng sau:
S sn phm loi A trong mu 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
S mu 2 0 4 6 8 10 4 5 1 0
Vi mc ngha 5%. Hy cho kt lun v phng php sn sut ny.
Bi tp 7.29. T l ph phm ca mt nh my trc y l 5%. Nm nay nh my p dng
mt bin php k thut mi. nghin cu tc dng ca bin php k thut mi, ngi ta ly
mt mu gm 800 sn phm kim tra v thy c 24 ph phm.
(a) Vi = 0.01. Hy cho kt lun v bin php k thut mi ny?
(b) Nu nh my bo co t l ph phm sau khi p dng bin php k thut mi l 2% th
c chp nhn c khng? ( = 0.01).
7.4 So snh hai t l
Bi tp 7.30. Trong 90 ngi dng DDT nga bnh ngoi da th c 10 ngi nhim bnh;
trong 100 ngi khng dng DDT th c 26 ngi mc bnh. Hi rng DDT c tc dng nga
bnh ngoi da khng? (kt lun vi = 0.05)
Bi tp 7.31. Ngi ta iu tra 250 ngi x A thy c 140 n v iu tra 160 ngi x
B thy c 80 n. Hy so snh t l n hai x vi mc ngha 5%.
Bi tp 7.32. p dng hai phng php gieo ht. Theo phng php A gieo 180 ht th c
150 ht ny mm; theo phng php B gieo 256 ht th thy c 160 ht ny mm. Hy so snh
hiu qu ca hai phng php vi mc ngha = 5%.
Bi tp 7.33. Theo di trng lng ca mt s tr s sinh ti mt s nh h sinh thnh ph
v nng thn, ngi ta thy rng trong s 150 tr s sinh thnh ph c 100 chu nng hn
3000 gam, v trong 200 tr s sinh nng thn c 98 chu nng hn 3000 gam. T kt qu
hy so snh t l tr s sinh c trng lng trn 3000 gam thnh ph v nng thn vi mc
ngha 5%.
Phn II
BI GII
Tp hp - Gii tch t hp
Gii bi 1.1. Ta lp dy B
1
, B
2
, . . . , B
2
nh sau:
B
1
= A
1
, B
2
= A
2
\ A
1
, . . . , B
n
= A
n
\
n1
_
k=1
A
k
(a) Ta chng minh B
i
B
j
= (i = j), gi s i < j.
Gi s a B
i
= A
i
\

i1
k=1
A
k
, tc l a A
1
, a / A
k
(k = 1, . . . , i 1), v vy a

j1
k=1
A
k
.
Suy ra a / B
j
. Vy B
i
B
j
= (i = j)
(b)

_
i=1
A
i
=

_
k=1
B
k
Gi s a

i=1
A
i
, tc l tn ti ch s j no sao cho a A
j
. Nu a B
j
th
a

j=1
B
j
. Nu a

j1
i=1
A
i
, gi i
1
l ch s nh nht sao cho a A
i
1
. Khi , a B
i
1
,
tc l a

j=1
B
j
. Vy

_
i=1
A
i

_
k=1
B
k
.
Ngc li, gi s a

j=1
B
j
, suy ra tn ti j sao cho a B
j
, tc l a A
j
, a /

j1
k=1
A
k
.
Do , a

i=1
A
j
. Vy

_
k=1
B
k

_
i=1
A
i
Gii bi 1.3. Khng phi khi no cng ng. V d, xt A, B, C l cc tp con khc rng ca
v ri nhau tng i mt, khi
A B C v B A C
nhng B =
Gii bi 1.5.
(a) (A B)(A C) = A BC
(b) (A B)(A B) = A
48
(c) (A B)(A B)(A B) = AB
(d) (A B)(A B)(A B) =
(e) (A B)(B C) = AB AC B BC = B AC B(A C) = B AC
Gii bi 1.7.
(a) A B A B = AB AB = A(B B) = A
(b) (A B)AB = (A B)(A B) = AB BA
Gii bi 1.9.
(a) C
5
50
= 2118760
(b) A
5
50
= 254251200
Gii bi 1.11. u tin ta chn 10 nam sinh trong 20 nam sinh, th c C
10
20
cch. Sau ,
chn 10 n sinh trong 20 n sinh th c C
10
20
cch. Theo quy tc nhn, s cch phn chia tha
yu cu l C
10
20
C
10
20
Gii bi 1.13.
(a) C mi hon v 5 ngi ny s l mt cch sp xp th t pht biu A trc B hoc B
trc A. M s cch xp A trc B bng vi s cch xp B trc A v ch cn i ch A
v B trong 1 hon v 5 ngi. Do , s cch xp ngi B pht biu sau A l
5!
2
= 60
(b) Ta xem AB l mt nhm v ta tin hnh hon v bn phn t sau: AB,C,D,E. Nh vy,
s cch xp ngi A pht biu xong th n lt ngi B l 4! = 24
Gii bi 1.15. u tin ta chn lp trng v c 40 cch chn. Tip theo ta chn lp ph v
c 39 cch chn. Cui cng ta chn th qu th c 38 cch chn. Do , s cch chn ban cn
s lp l 40.39.38 = 59280 cch.
Gii bi 1.17. S cch c 3 ngi lm nhim v a im A l C
3
9
.
S cch c 2 ngi a im B l C
2
6
S cch c 4 ngi li n l C
4
4
Theo quy tc nhn, s cch phn cng l C
3
9
.C
2
6
.C
4
4
= 1260
Gii bi 1.19.
49
(a) u tin ta xp 3 trong 12 hnh khch ln toa th 1, th c C
3
1
2 cch. Sau , ta xp 3
trong 9 hnh khch cn li ln toa th 2 th c C
3
9
cch. Tip theo, ta xp 3 trong 6 hnh
khch cn li ln toa th 3 th c C
3
6
cch. Cui cng, ta xp 3 trong 3 hnh khch cn li
ln toa th 4 th c C
3
3
cch. Theo quy tc nhn, s cch xp s l C
3
12
.C
3
9
.C
3
6
.C
3
3
= 369600
cch.
(b) u tin ta xp 6 hnh khch vo toa th 1 v c C
6
12
cch. Sau , ta xp 4 hnh khch
vo toa th 2 v c C
4
6
cch. Tip theo, ta xp 1 hnh khch ln toa th 3 v c C
1
2
cch.
Cui cng, ta xp 1 hnh khch ln toa th 4 v c C
1
1
cch. Tuy nhin ta c th xem 4
toa tu l 4 nhm v ta c th hon v 4 nhm ny. S cch hon v l 4!. Do , s cch
xp tha yu cu l 4!.C
6
12
.C
4
6
.C
1
2
.C
1
1
= 665280 cch.
Gii bi 1.21.
(a) Ta c,
(1 + x)
n
=
n

k=0
C
k
n
x
k
(7.1)
Ly o hm cp mt ca (7.1), ta c
n(1 + x)
n1
=
n

k=0
kC
k
n
x
k1
(7.2)
Thay x = 1 vo biu thc (7.2) ta c pcm.
(b) Ly o hm cp 2 ca (7.1), ta c
n(n 1)(1 + x)
n2
=
n

k=0
k(k 1)C
k
n
x
k2
(7.3)
Thay x = 1 vo biu thc (7.3) ta c pcm.
Gii bi 1.23. p dng bi (1.20) bng cch thay n bng 2n, r bng n v m bng n. Ta c,
C
0
n
C
n
n
+ C
1
n
C
n1
n
+ + C
i
n
C
ni
n
+ + C
n
n
C
0
n
= C
n
2n
Do C
i
n
= C
ni
n
i = 0, . . . , n nn ta c pcm.
Bin c v xc sut
Gii bi 2.1.
(a) Ta c, A A + B = A suy ra A = v B = . Th li ta thy ng. Vy A = , B =
(b) Ta c, A AB = A suy ra A = v B = . Th li ta thy ng. Vy A = , B =
(c) Ta c, A A + B = AB B A + B = AB A, tc l A B A. Do , A = B.
Th li thy ng. Vy A = B
Ta c, A.A + B = A(A B) = (AA)B = . Vy A, A + B xung khc.
Gii bi 2.3.
(a)
Gi A : "C ng mt sinh vin t yu cu"
Ta c,
A = B
1
B
2
B
3
B
4
+ B
1
B
2
B
3
B
4
+ B
1
B
2
B
3
B
4
+ B
1
B
2
B
3
B
4
(b)
Gi B : "C ng ba sinh vin t yu cu"
Ta c,
B = B
1
B
2
B
3
B
4
+ B
1
B
2
B
3
B
4
+ B
1
B
2
B
3
B
4
+ B
1
B
2
B
3
B
4
(c)
Gi C : "C t nht mt sinh vin t yu cu"
Ta c,
C = B
1
+ B
2
+ B
3
+ B
4
(d)
Gi D : "Khng c sinh vin no t yu cu"
Ta c,
D = B
1
B
2
B
3
B
4
51
Gii bi 2.5. Ta c:
X + A + A + A = B
X.A + XA = B
X(A + A) = B
X = B
X = B
Gii bi 2.7.
(a) M t cc bin c A
6
B
6
, A
3
B
5
A
6
B
6
: s nt mt trn c hai con xc xc u l 6
A
3
B
5
: s nt mt trn con xc xc th nht l 3 v trn con xc xc th hai l 5.
(b) Vit bng k hiu cc bin c A, B.
A = {A
1
B
4
, A
2
B
5
, A
3
B
6
, A
4
B
1
, A
5
B
2
, A
6
B
3
}
B = {A
1
B
1
, A
2
B
2
, A
3
B
3
, A
4
B
4
, A
5
B
5
, A
6
B
6
}
(c) Mt nhm y cc bin c l
{A, A}
Gii bi 2.9.
Gi A : Tt c cng ra tng bn
B : Tt c cng ra mt tng
C : Mi ngi ra mt tng khc nhau
(a) Xc sut tt c cng ra tng bn, P(A) =
1
6
3
.
(b) Xc sut tt c cng ra mt tng, P(B) =
6
6
3
.
(c) Mi ngi ra mt tng khc nhau, P(C) =
6 5 4
6
3
.
52
Gii bi 2.11.
Gi A : Trong s sn phm ly ra c ng s sn phm xu
Mi cch ly ngu nhin k sn phm t l hng n sn phm l mt t hp chp k ca n phn
t. Do , || = C
k
n
C C
s
m
cch ly ra s sn phm xu t m sn phm xu trong l hng.
C C
ks
nm
cch ly ra k s sn phm tt t n m sn phm tt trong l hng.
Theo quy tc nhn, |A| = C
s
m
C
ks
nm
. Do ,
P(A) =
|A|
||
=
C
s
m
C
ks
nm
C
k
n
Gii bi 2.13.
Gi A : Hp th nht c cha 3 sn phm
Mi cch xp ngu nhin mt sn phm vo mt trong 3 hp l mt cch chn ngu nhin mt
trong 3 hp. Do , s cch xp 12 sn phm ngu nhin vo 3 hp l s chnh hp lp chp 12
ca 3 phn t, tc l || =

A
12
3
= 3
12
.
S cch xp 3 sn phm cho hp th nht l C
3
12
.
S cch xp 9 sn phm cho hp th hai v ba l s chnh hp lp chp 9 ca 2 phn t, tc l

A
9
2
= 2
9
.
T , theo quy tc nhn, |A| = 2
9
C
3
12
Do ,
P(A) =
|A|
||
=
2
9
C
3
12
3
12
= 0.212
Gii bi 2.15.
Gi A : Ba on st b ra to thnh mt tam gic.
Gi x, y, l (x + y) l di 3 khc c b ngu nhin. Khi ,
= {(x, y)|x > 0, y > 0, x + y < l}
to thnh tam gic th x, y phi tha:
_

_
x + y > l (x + y)
x + l (x + y) > y
y + l (x + y) > x

_
x + y >
l
2
y <
l
2
x <
l
2
53
Khi
A = {(x, y)|x + y >
l
2
, x <
l
2
, y <
l
2
}
Biu din x, y trn trc ta ta tnh c:
P(A) =
|A|
||
= 0.25
Gii bi 2.17.
Gi C : Cung AB khng qu R.
Ta thy
P(A) =
|A|
||
=
di cung IJ
di ng trn
=
1
3
54
Gii bi 2.19.
Gi B
i
: "B phn th i hot ng tt" (i = 1, 2, 3)
H : "H thng hot ng tt"
Theo gi thit, ta thy rng P(B
i
) = 0.95 vi i = 1, 2, 3 v
H = B
1
B
2
B
3
+ B
1
B
2
B
3
+ B
1
B
2
B
3
+ B
1
B
2
B
3
Do tnh c lp, xung khc v i xng nn
P(H) = 3P(B
1
)P(B
2
)P(B
3
) + P(B
1
)P(B
2
)P(B
3
) = 3(0.95)
2
(0.05) + 0.95
3
= 0.9928
Gii bi 2.21.
P(AB) = P(A) + P(B) P(A + B) =
1
12
P(A.B) = P(A + B) = 1 P(A + B) =
1
4
P(A + B) = P(AB) = 1 P(AB) =
11
12
P(AB) = P(A) P(AB) =
1
4
P(AB) = P(B) P(AB) =
5
12
Gii bi 2.23.
Gi A
i
: gi ng ln th i (i = 1, 2, 3)
Khi , bin c gi ng khi khng phi th qu ba ln l A = A
1
+ A
1
A
2
+ A
1
.A
2
A
3
. Ta c
P(A) = P(A
1
) + P(A
1
A
2
) + P(A
1
.A
2
A
3
)
= P(A
1
) + P(A
1
)P(A
2
|A
1
) + P(A
1
)P(A
2
|A
1
)P(A
3
|A
1
.A
2
)
=
1
10
+
9
10
.
1
9
+
9
10
.
8
9
.
1
8
= 0.3
Khi bit s cui cng l s l th khi cc s chn quay ch cn gii hn li trong 5
trng hp (s l) nn cng thc trn tr thnh
P(A) =
1
5
+
4
5
.
1
4
+
4
5
.
3
4
.
1
3
= 0.6
55
Gii bi 2.25.
Gi A : Ngi c t nht mt v trng thng.
A : ngi khng c v trng thng
Ta c
P(A) =
C
r
NM
C
r
N
T ,
P(A) = 1 P(A) = 1
C
r
NM
C
r
N
Gii bi 2.27.
Gi A
i
: Sinh vin th i nhn ng o ca mnh (i = 1, . . . , n)
A : C t nht mt sinh vin nhn ng o ca mnh
Ta c A = A
1
+ A
2
+ . . . + A
n
.
Xc sut sinh vin th i nhn ng o ca mnh l
P(A
i
) =
(n 1)!
n!
=
1
n
v
n

i=1
P(A
i
) =
n(n 1)!
n!
= 1
Ta tnh xc sut sinh vin th k v i nhn ng o
P(A
k
A
i
) = P(A
i
)P(A
k
|A
i
) =
(n 2)!
n!
T
n

k<i
P(A
k
A
i
) = C
2
n
P(A
k
A
i
) =
n!
2!(n 2)!
.
(n 2)!
n!
=
1
2!
Tng qut, xc sut c m(m n) sinh vin k
1
, . . . , k
m
nhn ng o ca mnh l
P(A
k
1
A
k
2
. . . A
k
m
) =
(n m)!
n!
v

1k
1
<k
2
<...<k
m
n
P(A
k
1
A
k
2
. . . A
k
m
) = C
m
n
(n m)!
n!
=
1
m!
56
Suy ra,
P(A) = P
_
n

i=1
A
k
_
=
n

k=1
P(A
k
)
n

k<i
P(A
k
A
i
) + + (1)
n1
P(A
1
A
2
. . . A
n
)
= 1
1
2!
+
1
3
+ (1)
n1
1
n!
Khi n , P(A) 1
1
e
Gii bi 2.29.
Gi A
i
: X th th i bn trng (i = 1, 2, 3)
Theo gi thit, P(A
1
) = 0.6; P(A
2
) = 0.7; P(A
3
) = 0.8
(a)
Gi A : Ch c ngi th hai bn trng
Khi , A = A
1
A
2
A
3
v
P(A) = P(A
1
)P(A
2
)P(A
3
) = (0.4)(0.7)(0.2) = 0.056
(b)
Gi B : C ng mt ngi bn trng
Khi , B = A
1
A
2
A
3
+ A + A
1
A
2
A
3
v
P(B) = P(A
1
A
2
A
3
) + P(A) + P(A
1
A
2
A
3
)
= P(A
1
)P(A
2
)P(A
3
) + P(A) + P(A
1
)P(A
2
)P(A
3
)
= (0.6)(0.3)(0.2) + 0.056 + (0.4)(0.3)(0.8) = 0.188
(c)
Gi C : C t nht mt ngi bn trng
Khi , C = A
1
+ A
2
+ A
3
v
P(C)
= P(A
1
) + P(A
2
) + P(A
3
) P(A
1
A
2
) P(A
1
A
3
) P(A
2
A
3
) + P(A
1
A
2
A
3
)
= P(A
1
) + P(A
2
) + P(A
3
) P(A
1
)P(A
2
) P(A
1
)P(A
3
) P(A
2
)P(A
3
)
+P(A
1
)P(A
2
)P(A
3
)
= 0.6 + 0.7 + 0.8 (0.6)(0.7) (0.6)(0.8) (0.7)(0.8) + (0.6)(0.7)(0.8)
= 0.976
57
Hoc ta c th dng cch tnh sau:
P(C) = P(A
1
A
2
A
3
)
= 1 P(A
1
A
2
A
3
)
= 1 P(A
1
)P(A
2
)P(A
3
)
= 1 (0.4)(0.3)(0.2) = 0.976
(d)
Gi D : C ba ngi u bn trng
Khi , D = A
1
A
2
A
3
v
P(D) = P(A
1
)P(A
2
)P(A
3
) = (0.6)(0.7)(0.8) = 0.336
(e)
Gi E : C ng hai ngi bn trng
Khi , E = A
1
A
2
A
3
+ A
1
A
2
A
3
+ A
1
A
2
A
3
v
P(E) = P(A
1
A
2
A
3
) + P(A
1
A
2
A
3
) + P(A
1
A
2
A
3
)
= P(A
1
)P(A
2
)P(A
3
) + P(A
1
)P(A
2
)P(A
3
) + P(A
1
)P(A
2
)P(A
3
)
= (0.6)(0.7)(0.2) + (0.6)(0.3)(0.8) + (0.4)(0.7)(0.8) = 0.452
(f)
Gi F : C t nht hai ngi bn trng
Khi , F = D + E v
P(F) = P(D) + P(E)
= 0.336 + 0.452 = 0.788
(g)
Gi G : C khng qu hai ngi bn trng
Khi , P(G) = 1 P(D) = 1 0.336 = 0.664
Gii bi 2.31. Ta c
A = {abc, acb, cab} v B = {abc, acb, bac}
(a) V AB = {abc, acb} = nn A v B khng to thnh mt h y .
(b) P(AB) = P[{abc, acb}] = 1/9 v P(A) = P(B) = 1/18 + 1/18 + 2/9 = 1/3. Do
P(AB) = P(A)P(B)
Vy A v B l hai bin c c lp nhau.
58
Gii bi 2.33.
Gi A
k
: B phn th k hng trong khong thi gian T (k = 1, 2, . . . , n)
A : My tnh ngng lm vic trong khong thi gian T
A : My tnh lm vic tt trong khong thi gian T
Theo gi thit, P(A
k
) = p
k
(k = 1, 2, . . . , n) v A = A
1
A
2
. . . A
n
. Do
P(A) = 1 P(A) = 1 P(A
1
)P(A
2
) P(A
n
) = 1 (1 p
1
)(1 p
2
) (1 p
n
)
Gii bi 2.35. Ta c
P(A) = P(AB + AB) = P(A|B)P(B) + P(AB) = (1/8)(1/2) + 1/4 = 5/16
Gii bi 2.37.
Gi T
i
: "Tng s nt hai ln tung bng i" (i = 1, 6)
N
j,k
: "S nt trn ln tung th j bng k" (j = 1, 2; k = 1, 6)
Ta tm,
P(T
i
|N
1,2
N
1,4
N
1,6
) =
P(N
1,2
N
2,2
)
P(N
1,2
N
1,4
N
1,6
)
=
(1/6)
2
(1/2)
= 1/18
Gii bi 2.39.
Gi A
i
: Bn trng ln th i
A : Phi bn n vin th 6
Ta c: A = A
1
A
2
. . . A
5
A
6
v
P(A) = P(A
1
)P(A
2
) P(A
5
)P(A
6
) = (0.8
5
)(0.2) = 0.0655
Gii bi 2.41.
(a) P(A + B + C) = 0.95
(b) P(A + B + C) = 1 P(A + B + C) = 1 0.95 = 0.05
59
(c) P(A BC) = P(A + B + C) P(A + B) = 0.95 0.80 = 0.15
(d) Ta cn tnh
P[(AB C) + (ABC) + (A BC)] = P(AB C) + P(ABC) + P(A BC)
= 3P(A + B + C) P(A + B) P(B + C) P(C + A)
= 3(0.95) 0.80 0.90 0.85 = 0.3
Gii bi 2.43.
Gi A
i
: ngi th i nhn c phiu trng thng (i = 1, . . . , 10)
Ta c
P(A
1
) =
2
10
= 0.2
P(A
2
) = P(A
2
|A
1
)P(A
1
) + P(A
2
|A
1
)P(A
1
)
=
1
9
.
2
10
+
2
9
.
8
10
= 0.2
. . .
P(A
10
) = 0.2
Gii bi 2.45.
Gi A : "Ngi ny ht thuc"
B : "Ngi ny b vim hng"
Theo gi thit ta c,
P(A) = 0.3; P(B|A) = 0.6; P(B|A) = 0.3
Ta thy rng {A, A} l mt h y cc bin c. Theo cng thc xc sut y , ta tnh c
P(B) = P(B|A)P(A) + P(B|A)P(A) = 0.6(0.3) + 0.3(0.7) = 0.39
(a) Theo cng thc Bayes, xc sut ngi ht thuc l khi bit ngi b vim hng l
P(A|B) =
P(B|A)P(A)
P(B)
=
0.6(0.3)
0.39
= 0.462
60
(b) Theo cng thc Bayes, xc sut ngi ht thuc l khi bit ngi khng b vim
hng l
P(A|B) =
P(B|A)P(A)
P(B)
=
0.4(0.3)
0.61
= 0.197
Gii bi 2.47. S: a. 0.28; b. 0.4375
Gi A : Nhn c cp sinh i tht
B : Nhn c cp sinh i c cng gii tnh
Do cc cp sinh i tht lun lun c cng gii tnh nn
P(B|A) = 1
Vi cc cp sinh i gi th gii tnh ca mi a c lp nhau v c xc sut l 0.5 nn
P(B|A) = P(B|A) = 0.5
Do thng k trn cc cp sinh i nhn c th
P(B) = 0.3 + 0.34 = 0.64; P(B) = 0.36
(a) Do cng thc xc sut ton phn
P(B) = P(B|A)P(A) + P(B|A)P(A)
= P(B|A)P(A) + P(B|A)(1 P(A))
Suy ra
P(A) = 0.28
(b) Do cng thc Bayes,
P(A|B) =
P(B|A)P(A)
P(B)
=
0.28
0.64
= 0.4375
Gii bi 2.49.
Gi A
i
: Sn phm ly ra ln u l th i l loi I (i = 1, 2)
B : Sn phm ly ra ln sau l loi I
61
Ta c A
1
, A
2
c lp vi nhau v {A
1
A
2
, A
1
A
2
, A
1
A
2
, A
1
A
2
} l mt h y cc bin c.
P(A
1
) =
10
12
, P(A
2
) =
16
20
P(B|A
1
A
2
) = 1, P(B|A
1
A
2
) = P(B|A
1
A
2
) =
1
2
, P(B|A
1
A
2
) = 0
Khi ,
P(B) = P(B|A
1
A
2
)P(A
1
A
2
) + P(B|A
1
A
2
)P(A
1
A
2
)
+P(B|A
1
A
2
)P(A
1
A
2
) + P(B|A
1
A
2
)P(A
1
A
2
)
= 1.
10
12
.
16
20
+
1
2
.
2
12
.
16
20
+
1
2
.
10
12
.
4
20
= 0.79
Gii bi 2.51.
Gi A
i
: Sn phm do my i sn xut
A : Sn phm l ph phm
Ta c: A
1
, A
2
, A
3
l mt h y cc bin c v
P(A
1
) = 0.25, P(A
2
) = 0.3, P(A
3
) = 0.45
P(A|A
1
) = 0.001, P(A|A
2
) = 0.002, P(A|A
3
) = 0.004
(a) Theo cng thc xc sut y ta c:
P(A) = P(A|A
1
)P(A
1
) + P(A|A
2
)P(A
2
) + P(A|A
3
)P(A
3
)
= 0.00265
(b) Theo cng thc Bayes ta c:
P(A
2
|A) =
P(A|A
2
)P(A
2
)
P(A)
= 0.226
Gii bi 2.53.
62
Gi A
i
: Khu pho th i bn trng (i = 1, 2, 3)
B
k
: Mc tiu trng k pht n (k = 0, 1, 2, 3)
B : Mc tiu b tiu dit.
Ta c: {B
k
, k = 0, 1, 2, 3} l mt h y cc bin c v
B
0
= A
1
A
2
A
3
, B
1
= A
1
A
2
A
3
+ A
1
A
2
A
3
+ A
1
A
2
A
3
B
2
= A
1
A
2
A
3
+ A
1
A
2
A
3
+ A
1
A
2
A
3
, B
3
= A
1
A
2
A
3
Ta c cc gi thit sau:
P(A
1
) = 0.4, P(A
2
) = 0.7, P(A
3
) = 0.8
P(B|B
0
) = 0, P(B|B
1
) = 0.3, P(B|B
2
) = 0.7, P(B|B
3
) = 1
T , ta tnh c
P(B
0
) = P(A
1
)P(A
2
)P(A
3
)
= (0.6)(0.3)(0.2)
= 0.036
P(B
1
) = P(A
1
)P(A
2
)P(A
3
) + P(A
1
)P(A
2
)P(A
3
) + P(A
1
)P(A
2
)P(A
3
)
= (0.4)(0.3)(0.2) + (0.6)(0.7)(0.2) + (0.6)(0.3)(0.8)
= 0.252
P(B
2
) = P(A
1
)P(A
2
)P(A
3
) + P(A
1
)P(A
2
)P(A
3
) + P(A
1
)P(A
2
)P(A
3
)
= (0.4)(0.7)(0.2) + (0.4)(0.3)(0.8) + (0.6)(0.7)(0.8)
= 0.488
P(B
3
) = P(A
1
)P(A
2
)P(A
3
)
= (0.4)(0.7)(0.8)
= 0.224
(a) Theo cng thc xc sut y ta c
P(B) = P(B|B
0
)P(B
0
) + P(B|B
1
)P(B
1
) + P(B|B
2
)P(B
2
) + P(B|B
3
)P(B
3
)
= 0.(0.036) + (0.3)(0.252) + (0.7)(0.488) + 1.(0.224)
= 0.6412
63
(b) Ta c
P(BA
3
) = P[BA
3
(A
1
A
2
+ A
1
A
2
+ A
1
A
2
+ A
1
A
2
)]
= P(A
1
A
2
A
3
B) + P(A
1
A
2
A
3
B) + P(A
1
A
2
A
3
B) + P(A
1
A
2
A
3
B)
= P(B|A
1
A
2
A
3
)P(A
1
A
2
A
3
) + P(B|A
1
A
2
A
3
)P(A
1
A
2
A
3
)
+P(B|A
1
A
2
A
3
)P(A
1
A
2
A
3
) + P(B|A
1
A
2
A
3
)P(A
1
A
2
A
3
)
= 1.(0.224) + (0.7)[(0.6)(0.7)(0.8)] + (0.7)[(0.4)(0.3)(0.8)]
+(0.3)[(0.6)(0.3)(0.8)]
= 0.5696
Do
P(A
3
|B) =
P(BA
3
)
P(B)
=
0.5696
0.6412
= 0.8883
Gii bi 2.55.
(a) Tnh xc sut khch hng mua c sn phm loi A
Gi T : "Khch hng mua c sn phm loi A"
A
i
: "Mua ca hng i"
Ta c {A
1
, A
2
, A
3
} l mt h y cc bin c v
P(A
1
) =
2
5
= 0.4 P(A
2
) =
1
5
= 0.2 P(A
3
) =
2
5
= 0.4
P(T|A
1
) = 0.7 P(T|A
2
) = 0.75 P(T|A
3
) = 0.5
p dng cng thc xc sut y , ta c xc sut khch hng mua c sn phm
loi A l
P(T) = P(A
1
)P(T|A
1
) + P(A
2
)P(T|A
2
) + P(A
3
)P(T|A
3
)
= 0.4 0.7 + 0.2 0.75 + 0.4 0.5
= 0.63
64
(b) p dng cng thc Bayes, ta c
P(A
1
|T) =
P(A
1
)P(T|A
1
)
P(T)
=
0.4 0.7
0.63
= 0.4444
P(A
2
|T) =
P(A
2
)P(T|A
2
)
P(T)
=
0.2 0.75
0.63
= 0.2381
P(A
3
|T) =
P(A
3
)P(T|A
3
)
P(T)
=
0.4 0.5
0.63
= 0.3175
Ta thy rng P(A
1
|T) l ln nht tc l kh nng ngi y mua ca hng I l nhiu
nht.
Bin ngu nhin v hm phn phi
Gii bi 3.1.
(a)
F(x) =
_

_
0 x 2
1/8 2 < x 1
3/8 1 < x 0
5/8 0 < x 1
7/8 1 < x 2
1 x > 2
(b)
P(1 X 1) =
6
8
P(X 1 hoc X = 2) =
4
8
(c) Bng phn phi xc sut ca bin ngu nhin Y = X
2
Y 0 1 4
P 2/8 4/8 2/8
Gii bi 3.3.
(a) Ta c
EX = 1(0.5) + 0(0.2) + 3(0.3) = 0.4
E(X
2
) = (1)
2
(0.5) + 0
2
(0.2) + 3
2
(0.3) = 3.2
V ar(X) = E(X
2
) (EX)
2
= 3.04
66
Do , =
_
V ar(X) = 1.7436.
(b) Ta c
E(X
3
) = (1)
3
(0.5) + 0
3
(0.2) + 3
3
(0.3) = 7.6
(c) Vi x 1 th F
X
(x) = 0.
Vi 1 < x 0 th F
X
(x) = 0.5.
Vi 0 < x 3 th F
X
(x) = 0.5 + 0.2 = 0.7.
Vi x > 3 th F
X
(x) = 1.
Vy
F
X
(x) =
_

_
0 nu x 1
0.5 nu 1 < x 0
0.7 nu 0 < x 3
1 nu x > 3
(d) Ta c,
Vi x = 1 th y = x
2
+ x + 1 = 1.
Vi x = 0 th y = x
2
+ x + 1 = 1.
Vi x = 3 th y = x
2
+ x + 1 = 13.
Do ,
P(Y = 1) = P(X = 1) + P(X = 0) = 0.7
P(Y = 13) = P(X = 3) = 0.3
Vy bng phn phi xc sut ca Y s l
Y 1 13
P 0.7 0.3
Gii bi 3.5. Ta tm F
X
(x) =
_
x

f(y)dy
Nu x 0 th F
X
(x) = 0
Nu x > 0 th F
X
(x) =
_
x
0
e
y
dy = 1 e
x
Vy
F
X
(x) =
_
_
_
0 x 0
1 e
x
x > 0
67
(a)
P(3 X) = 1 P(X < 3) = 1 F
X
(3) = e
3
(b) Ta tm a sao cho F
X
(a) = 0.1, tc l
1 e
a
= 0.1
Suy ra a = 0.105
(c) Ta c:
F
Y
(y) = P(Y < y) = P(

X < y)
Nu y 0 th F
Y
(y) = 0
Nu y > 0 th F
Y
(y) = P(0 X < y
2
) = F
X
(y
2
) F
X
(0) = 1 e
y
2
Vy
F
Y
(y) =
_
_
_
0 y 0
1 e
y
2
y > 0
T ,
f
Y
(y) =
_
_
_
0 y 0
2ye
y
2
y > 0
Gii bi 3.7. Ta thy rng f
X
(x) l mt hm i xng qua trc Ox. Do P(X < 0) = 1/2.
Gii bi 3.9.
(a) Ta tm c t iu kin f
X
(x) 0 vi mi x R v
_

f
X
(x)dx = 1. Ta c
_

f
X
(x)dx =
_
1
1
c(1 x
2
)dx =
4c
3
Suy ra c =
3
4
.
Ta thy rng vi gi tr c =
3
4
th f
X
(x) 0 vi mi x R.
Vy c =
3
4
(b) Ta c
EX =
_

xf
X
(x)dx =
_
1
1
3
4
x(1 x
2
)dx = 0
68
(c) Ta c
EX
2
=
_

x
2
f
X
(x)dx =
_
1
1
3
4
x
2
(1 x
2
)dx =
1
5
Do ,
V ar(X) = EX
2
(EX)
2
=
1
5
(d) Ta c F
X
(x) =
_
x

f
X
(t)dt.
Vi x < 1 th F
X
(x) = 0.
Vi 1 x 1 th
F
X
(x) =
_
x
1
3
4
(1 t
2
)dt =
1
4
x
3
+
3
4
x +
1
2
Vi x > 1 th F
X
(x) = 1.
Vy
F
X
(x) =
_

_
0 nu x < 1

1
4
x
3
+
3
4
x +
1
2
nu 1 x 1
1 nu x > 1
Gii bi 3.11. Ta c
p

X
(x) =
_

_
1/4 nu x = 0
1/2 nu x = 1
1/4 nu x = 2
Do
E
_

X
_
=
3

i=1
x
i
p

X
(x
i
)
= 0.
1
4
+ 1.
1
2
+ 2.
1
4
= 1
E(X) =
3

i=1
x
i
p
X
(x
i
)
= 0.
1
4
+ 1.
1
2
+ 4.
1
4
=
3
2
69
Do ,
V ar(X) = EX
_
E
_

X
__
2
=
3
2
1
2
=
1
2
Gii bi 3.13.
(a) Vi x < 0 hoc x > 4 th f
X
(x) = F

X
(x) = 0.
Vi 0 < x < 1 th f
X
(x) = F

X
(x) = 1/2.
Vi 1 < x < 4 th f
X
(x) = F

X
(x) = 1/6.
Vi x = 0 ta c
lim
xx
+
F
X
(x) F
X
(0)
x
= lim
x0
+
x/2
x
= 1/2
lim
xx

F
X
(x) F
X
(0)
x
= lim
x0
+
0 0
x
= 0
Do , F
X
khng c o hm ti x = 0.
Vi x = 1 ta c
lim
xx
+
F
X
(1 + x) F
X
(1)
x
= lim
x0
+
1+x
6
+
1
3

1
2
x
= 1/6
lim
xx

F
X
(1 + x) F
X
(1)
x
= lim
x0

1+x
2

1
2
x
= 1/2
Do , F
X
khng c o hm ti x = 1.
Vi x = 4 ta c
lim
xx
+
F
X
(4 + x) F
X
(4)
x
= lim
x0
+
1 1
x
= 0
lim
xx

F
X
(4 + x) F
X
(4)
x
= lim
x0

4+x
6
+
1
3
1
x
= 1/6
Do , F
X
khng c o hm ti x = 4.
Vy
f
X
(x) =
_

_
1/2 nu 0 < x < 1
1/6 nu 1 < x < 4
0 nu x < 0 hoc x > 4
(b) Do 0.5 < 0.75 < 1 nn 1 < x
0.75
< 4. T , ta c phng trnh
F
X
(x
0.75
) =
x
0.75
6
+
1
3
= 0.75
Gii ra ta c x
0.75
= 2.5.
70
(c) Ta c
EX =
_

xf
X
(x)dx
=
_
1
0
1
2
xdx +
_
4
1
1
6
xdx
= 1.5
(d) Ta c
E(1/X) =
_

1
x
f
X
(x)dx
=
_
1
0
1
2x
xdx +
_
4
1
1
6x
xdx
=
(e) Ta c
(i) F
Y
(0) = P(Y < 0) = P(X 1) = F(1) = 0.5.
(ii) Ta tnh
EY = P(X 1) + P(X > 1)
= F(1) + 1 F(1)
= 1 2F(1)
= 0
E(Y
2
) = P(X 1) + P(X > 1)
= 1
Do
V ar(Y ) = E(Y
2
) (EY )
2
= 1 0
2
= 1
Gii bi 3.15.
(a) Ta tm k t iu kin f(x) 0 vi mi x R v
_

f(x)dx = 1. Ta c,
_

f(x)dx = k
_
4
0
x
2
(4 x)dx = k
64
3
Suy ra k =
3
64
.
Ta thy rng vi k =
3
64
th f(x) 0 vi mi x R.
Vy k =
3
64
.
71
(b) F(x) =
_
x

f(y)dy.
Nu x < 0 th F(x) = 0
Nu 0 x 4 th F(x) =
3
64
_
x
0
y
2
(4 y)dy =
1
16
x
3

3
256
x
4
Nu x > 4 th F(x) = 1
Vy
F(x) =
_

_
0 x < 0
1
16
x
3

3
256
x
4
0 x 4
1 x > 4
(c) Ta c,
EX =
_

xf(x)dx
=
_
4
0
3
64
x
3
(4 x)dx
= 2.4
EX
2
=
_

x
2
f(x)dx
=
_
4
0
3
64
x
4
(4 x)dx
= 6.4
V ar(X) = EX
2
(EX)
2
= 0.64
Xt g(x) =
3
64
x
2
(4 x), 0 x 4. Ta c,
g

(x) =
3
64
x(8 3x)
Ta thy g(x) i du t dng sang m khi qua gi tr x =
8
3
. Do g(x) t cc i ti
gi tr ny. Vy Mod(X) =
8
3
(d)
Gi A : Cn trng cht trc mt thng tui.
Ta c A = {X < 1} v
P(A) = P(X < 1) = F(1) =
1
16

3
256
= 0.0508
72
Gii bi 3.17.
(a)
Gi A : Nhn c l hng t thng A
B : Nhn c l hng t thng B
X : S l hng trong hai l ly ra
Ta c X ly cc gi tr 0, 1, 2 v A, B l cc bin c c lp. Ta c
P(X = 0) = P(A B) = P(A)P(B) =
18
20
17
20
= 0.765
P(X = 1) = P(AB + AB) = P(A)P(B) + P(A)P(B) =
2
20
17
20
+
18
20
3
20
= 0.22
P(X = 2) = P(AB) = P(A)P(B) =
2
20
3
20
= 0.015
T , ta c bng phn phi xc sut
X 0 1 2
P 0.765 0.22 0.015
v hm mt ca X
f(x) =
_

_
0.765 khi x = 0
0.22 khi x = 1
0.015 khi x = 2
0 khi x = 0, 1, 2
(b)
Gi Y : s l hng trong 3 l ly ra t thng B
Ta c,
P(Y = k) =
C
k
3
C
3k
17
C
3
2
0
, k = 0, 1, 2, 3
v ta nhn c bng phn phi xc sut
Y 0 1 2 3
P 0.596 0.358 0.045 0.001
73
v hm mt ca Y
f(y) =
_

_
0.596 khi y = 0
0.358 khi y = 1
0.045 khi y = 2
0.001 khi y = 3
0 khi y = 0, 1, 2, 3
Gii bi 3.19.
(a) T iu kin f
X
(x) 0 vi mi x R v
_

f
X
(x)dx = 1, ta tnh c c 0 v
_

f
X
(x)dx =
_

0
cxe
x/2
dx = 4c
Suy ra c = 1/4
(b) Theo nh ngha, F
X
(x) =
_

f
X
(x)dx.
Nu x < 0 th F
X
(x) = 0.
Nu x 0 th F
X
(x) =
_

0
1
4
te
t/2
dt = 1
1
2
(x + 2)e
x/2
.
Vy
F
X
(x) =
_
_
_
0 nu x < 0
1
1
2
(x + 2)e
x/2
nu x 0
(c) Ta c EX =
_

xf
X
(x)dx =
_

0
1
4
x
2
e
x/2
dx = 4.
(d) Ta c
EX
2
=
_

x
2
f
X
(x)dx
=
_

0
1
4
x
3
e
x/2
dx
= 24
V ar(X) = EX
2
(EX)
2
= 8
(X) =
_
V ar(X)
= 2

2
74
(e) Do X l bin ngu nhin lin tc nn vi Med(X) = m ta phi c P(X m) = 1/2, tc
l F(m) = 1
1
2
(m + 2)e
m/2
=
1
2
. T ta tm c m = 1.5361.
Gii bi 3.21.
(a) Ta c,
X 0 1 2 3
P 0.42 0.425 0.14 0.015
(b) Ta c,
F(x) =
_

_
0 khi x 0
0.42 khi 0 < x 1
0.845 khi 1 < x 2
0.985 khi 2 < x 3
1 khi x > 3
(c) Ta c th tnh bng mt trong hai cch sau:
P(0 < X 4) = P(X = 1) + P(X = 2) + P(X = 3) = 0.425 + 0.14 + 0.015 = 0.58
P(0 < X 4) = P(1 X < 4) = F(4) F(1) = 1 0.42 = 0.58
Gii bi 3.23.
(a) Xc sut ly c transistor loi A, B ln lt l p
1
=
100
150
=
2
3
v p
2
= 1 p
1
=
1
3
.
Gi X l s transistor c rt ra. X {1, 2, . . .}. Ta cn tm
P(X {9, 10}) = P(X = 9) + P(X = 10)
= p
8
1
p
2
+ p
9
1
p
2
= 0.0217
(b) Gi n l s transistor t nht c rt ra. Theo gi thit,
P(X = n) = p
n
1
=
_
2
3
_
n
<
1
3
75
Ta tm c
n >
log(1/3)
log(2/3)
= 2.7095
Vy n = 3.
Gii bi 3.25.
Gi A
i
: Tung ln th i c 6 nt (i = 1, 2, 3)
X : S tin thu c sau 1 ln chi
Ta c,
P(X = 0) = P(A
1
A
2
A
3
)
= P(A
1
)P(A
2
)P(A
3
)
=
5
6
5
6
5
6
= 0.579
P(X = 2000) = P(A
1
A
2
A
3
+ A
1
A
2
A
3
+ A
1
A
2
A
3
)
= P(A
1
)P(A
2
)P(A
3
) + P(A
1
)P(A
2
)P(A
3
) + P(A
1
)P(A
2
)P(A
3
)
= 3.
1
6
5
6
5
6
= 0.347
P(X = 4000) = P(A
1
A
2
A
3
+ A
1
A
2
A
3
+ A
1
A
2
A
3
)
= P(A
1
)P(A
2
)P(A
3
) + P(A
1
)P(A
2
)P(A
3
) + P(A
1
)P(A
2
)P(A
3
)
= 3.
1
6
1
6
5
6
= 0.069
P(X = 6000) = P(A
1
A
2
A
3
)
= P(A
1
)P(A
2
)P(A
3
)
=
1
6
1
6
1
6
= 0.005
T , ta c c bng phn phi xc sut ca X nh sau:
X 0 2000 4000 6000
P 0.579 0.347 0.069 0.005
T ,
EX =
4

i=1
x
i
P(X = x
i
) = 1000
76
(a) ngi chi v lu v di hu vn th ta cn A = EX = 1000
(b) trung bnh mi ln ngi chi mt 1 ngn th A = EX + 1000 = 2000 .
Gii bi 3.27.
(a) Ta c
F
X
(x) = P(X < x) = P(X x) =
_
_
_
cx
2
nu 0 x < 25
1 nu x 25
(i) V F
X
lin tc tri nn lim
x25
F
X
(x) = F(25), tc l c25
2
= 1. Vy c =
1
25
2
.
(ii) Vi 0 x < 25 th f
X
(x) =
2
25
2
x.
Vi x > 25 th f
X
(x) = 0
Vi x = 25, ta c
lim
t0
+
F
X
(25 + t) F
X
(25)
t
= lim
t0
+
1 1
t
= 0
lim
t0

F
X
(25 + t) F
X
(25)
t
= lim
t0

1
25
2
(25 + t)
2
1
t
= 0
Suy ra
lim
t0
+
F
X
(25 + t) F
X
(25)
t
= lim
t0

F
X
(25 + t) F
X
(25)
t
= 0
Hay f
X
(25) = F

X
(25) = 0.
Vy
f
X
(x) =
_
_
_
2
25
2
x nu 0 x < 25
0 nu x 25
(iii) Ta c
EX =
_

xf
X
(x)dx =
_
25
0
2
25
2
x
2
dx =
50
3
(iv) Ta c
P(X 10|X 5) =
P(5 X 10)
P(X 5)
=
F(10) F(5)
1 F(5)
=
1
8
(b) Gi Y l s tin ngi chi t c. Ta c
EY = P(r < X 2r) + 10P(X r) 1
= F(2r) F(r) + 10F(r) 1
= F(2r) + 9F(r) 1
77
Theo gi thit EY = 0.25 ta suy ra
F(2r) + 9F(r) 1 =
13
25
2
r
2
1 = 0.25
Vy r = 7.7522 cm.
Gii bi 3.29.
(a) A = 2 v
F(x) =
_

_
x
2
khi 0 x 1
0 khi x < 0
1 khi x > 1
EX =
2
3
, V ar(X) = 0.055
(b) A = 0.5 v
F(x) =
_

_
1
2
(1 cos x) khi 0 x
0 khi x < 0
1 khi x >
EX =

2
, V ar(X) =

2
4
2
(c) A = v
F(x) =
_

_
sin (x) khi 0 x
1
2
0 khi x < 0
1 khi x >
1
2
EX =
1
2

1

, V ar(X) =
3

2
(d) A = 3 v
F(x) =
_
_
_
1
1
x
3
khi 0 1
0 khi x < 1
EX =
3
2
, V ar(X) =
3
4
78
Gii bi 3.31. Ta c,
X
2
0 1 4
P 0.3 0.5 0.2
X + Y 2 1 0 1 2 3
P 0.06 0.17 0.27 0.27 0.17 0.06
T ,
EX
2
= 0.13
EX
4
= 3.7
V ar(X
2
) = EX
4
(EX
2
)
2
= 3.683
E(X + Y ) = 0.5
E[(X + Y )
2
] = 1.9
V ar(X + Y ) = E[(X + Y )
2
] [E(X + Y )]
2
= 1.65
Gii bi 3.33. Ta c
Y =
_
_
_
1 nu X 0
1 nu X < 0
Do ,
F
Y
(y) = P(Y < y) =
_

_
0 nu y 1
P(X < 0) nu 1 < y 1
1 nu y > 1
Vy
F
Y
(y) =
_

_
0 nu y 1
F
X
(0) nu 1 < y 1
1 nu y > 1
79
Gii bi 3.35. Trong gii tch c s ta bit,
nh ngha 7.1. Cho A l mt tp con khc trng ca R. Ta ni A l mt khong trong R nu
v ch nu [x, y] A vi mi x, y A sao cho x y.
nh l 7.2. Cho f l mt hm s thc lin tc trn mt khong A. Lc , f(A) l mt khong
trong R.
Tr li bi ton, ta cn tm
F
Y
(y) = P(Y < y) = P(F(X) < y)
Vi y > 1, ta c F
Y
(y) = 1.
Vi y 0, ta c F
Y
(y) = 0.
Vi 0 < y 1, ta p dng nh l (7.2) trn vi A = R v f = F, cho ta F(R) l mt
khong trong R. Mt khc F(0) = 0, F(2) = 1 F(R). Do , theo nh ngha (7.1),
[0, 1] F(R). Kt hp vi F(R) [0, 1], ta suy ra F(R) = [0, 1] tc F ton nh trn R.
Do , vi 0 < y 1 tn ti nh ngc F
1
(y).
T tnh n iu ca F, ta c,
F
Y
(y) = P(F(X) < y) = P(X < F
1
(y)) = F(F
1
(y)) = y
Vy
F
Y
(y) =
_

_
0 nu y 0
y nu 0 < y 1
1 nu y > 1
Nhn xt 7.3. Ta thy rng Y U(0, 1) v khng ph thuc vo phn phi ca X.
Mt s bin ngu nhin thng dng
Gii bi 4.1. Gi X l s sn phm khng t tiu chun trong 10 sn phm ly ra. Ta c,
X B(10,
2000
8000
) = B(10, 0.25).
Khi , xc sut trong 10 sn phm ly ra c 2 sn phm khng t tiu chun l
P(X = 2) = C
2
10
(0.25)
2
(0.75)
8
= 0.282
Gii bi 4.3. Gi X l s con trai trong mt gia nh c 4 con th X B(4; 0.5)
(a) Xc sut c hai trai v hai gi trong bn a con l
P(X = 2) = C
2
4
(0.5)
2
(0.5)
2
= 0.375
(b) Xc sut c mt con trai trong s bn a con l
P(X = 1) = C
1
4
(0.5)
1
(0.5)
3
= 0.25
(c) Xc sut c bn u l trai l
P(X = 4) = C
4
4
(0.5)
4
(0.5)
0
= 0.0625
Gii bi 4.5. Gi X l s trng hp cn chm sc c bit trong 20 ca sinh. Ta c, X
B(20; 0.01).
(a) Xc sut khng c trng hp no cn chm sc c bit l
P(X = 0) = C
0
20
(0.01)
0
(0.99)
20
= 0.818
(b) Xc sut c ng mt trng hp cn chm sc c bit l
P(X = 1) = C
1
20
(0.01)
1
(0.99)
19
= 0.165
81
(c) Xc sut c nhiu hn mt trng hp cn chm sc c bit l
P(X > 1) = 1 [P(X = 0) + P(X = 1)] = 1 (0.818 + 0.165) = 0.017
Khi xp x phn phi nh thc bng phn phi Poisson, ngha l X P(20 0.01) = P(0.2), ta
nhn c
P(X = 0) = e
0.2
= 0.819
P(X = 1) = e
0.2
0.2
1
1!
= 0.164
P(X > 1) = 1 [P(X = 0) + P(X = 1)]
= 1 (0.819 + 0.164) = 0.017
Kt lun : Vi c mu 20 v t l bnh p = 0.01 th kt qu ca hai loi phn phi ny xp x
nh nhau.
Gii bi 4.7. Gi X l s ngi mc bnh A trong nhm 400 ngi. Khi , X B(400, 0.1)
(a) Cng thc tnh xc sut trong nhm c nhiu nht 50 ngi mc bnh A l
P(X 50) =
50

i=0
C
i
400
0.1
i
0.9
400i
(b) Do n = 400 20 v p = 0.1 khng qu gn 0 hoc 1, nn ta c th p dng cng thc xp
x phn phi chun.
P(X 50) = P
_
X 400.(0.1)
_
400.(0.1).(0.9)

50 400.(0.1)
_
400.(0.1).(0.9)
_
(1.667)
= 0.953
Gii bi 4.9. V mi gi sn xut c 20 sn phm nn mi khong thi gian 30 pht my
sn xut c 10 sn phm. Gi X l s th phm my sn xut ra trong 30 pht. Theo gi
thit ta c X B(10, 0.85). Ta cn tm
P(X {8, 9}) = P(X = 8) + P(X = 9)
= C
8
10
(0.85)
8
(0.15)
2
+ C
9
10
(0.85)
9
(0.15)
1
= 0.6233
Gii bi 4.11.
82
Gi A
i
: "Xc sc th i xut hin ngi chi t" (i = 1, 2, 3)
B : "Ngi chi thng"
Ta c P(B) = P(A
1
A
2
A
3
) = P(A
1
)P(A
2
)P(A
3
) =
1
6
1
6
1
6
= 0.00463
Vy sau nhiu ln chi ngi lm ci s thng.
Gi X l s tin ngi lm ci thu c. Ta c bng phn phi ca X nh sau:
X -5000 1000
P 0.00463 0.99537
Khi trung bnh mi vn ngi lm ci s thng EX = 972.2222 .
Gii bi 4.13.
(a) Trc ht ta lp bng phn phi xc sut ca X v Y nh sau:
X 0 1
P 0.2 0.8
Y 0 1 2
P 0.64 0.32 0.04
Ta c,
P(X + Y = 0) = P(X = 0, Y = 0)
= P(X = 0)P(Y = 0)
= 0.512
P(X + Y = 1) = P(X = 0, Y = 1) + P(X = 1, Y = 0)
= P(X = 0)P(Y = 1) + P(X = 1)P(Y = 0)
= 0.384
P(X + Y = 2) = P(X = 0, Y = 2) + P(X = 1, Y = 1)
= P(X = 0)P(Y = 2) + P(X = 1)P(Y = 1)
= 0.096
P(X + Y = 3) = P(X = 1, Y = 2)
= P(X = 1)P(Y = 2)
= 0.008
T suy ra bng phn phi xc sut ca X + Y l
X + Y 0 1 2 3
P 0.512 0.384 0.096 0.008
83
Kim tra X + Y B(3,
1
5
). Ta c,
P(X + Y = 0) = C
0
3
_
1
5
_
0
_
4
5
_
3
P(X + Y = 1) = C
1
3
_
1
5
_
1
_
4
5
_
2
P(X + Y = 2) = C
2
3
_
1
5
_
2
_
4
5
_
1
P(X + Y = 3) = C
3
3
_
1
5
_
3
_
4
5
_
0
Vy X + Y B(3,
1
5
).
(b) Ta lp bng phn phi xc sut ca X v Y nh sau:
X 0 1
P 0.5 0.5
Y 0 1 2
P 0.64 0.32 0.04
Ta c,
P(X + Y = 0) = P(X = 0, Y = 0)
= P(X = 0)P(Y = 0)
= 0.32
P(X + Y = 1) = P(X = 0, Y = 1) + P(X = 1, Y = 0)
= P(X = 0)P(Y = 1) + P(X = 1)P(Y = 0)
= 0.48
P(X + Y = 2) = P(X = 0, Y = 2) + P(X = 1, Y = 1)
= P(X = 0)P(Y = 2) + P(X = 1)P(Y = 1)
= 0.18
P(X + Y = 3) = P(X = 1, Y = 2)
= P(X = 1)P(Y = 2)
= 0.02
T suy ra bng phn phi xc sut ca X + Y l
X + Y 0 1 2 3
P 0.32 0.48 0.18 0.02
84
Gi s X + Y c phn b nh thc dng B(3, p). Khi ,
P(X + Y = 0) = C
0
3
p
0
(1 p)
3
= 0.32
Ta suy ra, p = 0.316
Mt khc, vi gi tr p ny,
P(X + Y = 3) = C
3
3
p
3
(1 p)
0
= p
3
= 0.0316 > 0.02 (v l)
Vy X + Y khng c phn b nh thc.
Gii bi 4.15. Gi X l s b th my c sai trong mi pht.
Ta c, X B(5000, 0.0004)
(a) S b th trung bnh mi pht my c sai l
EX = 5000.(0.0004) = 2
(b) S b th tin chc nht trong mi pht my c sai l s b th m xc sut my c sai
l ln nht, tc l Mod(X). Ta c,
5000.(0.0004) 0.9996 Mod(X) 5000.(0.0004) + 0.9996
tc l 1.0004 Mod(X) 2.9996
Suy ra Mod(X) = 2.
(c) Xc sut trong mt pht my c sai t nht 3 b th l
P(X 3) = 1 P(X < 3)
= 1 [P(X = 0) + P(X = 1) + P(X = 2)]
Do n = 5000 100, p = 0.0004 0.01, np = 2 20. Nn ta c th tnh cc xc sut xp
x theo lut Poisson nh sau,
P(X 3) = 1 [P(X = 0) + P(X = 1) + P(X = 2)]
= 1 e
2
_
1 +
2
1
1!
+
2
2
2!
_
= 0.323
Gii bi 4.17.
85
(a) Gi X l s th phm trong 10 sn phm c kim tra. X {0, 1, 2}. Ta c
P(X = 0) =
C
10
23
C
10
25
= 0.35
P(X = 1) =
C
1
2
C
9
23
C
10
25
= 0.5
Xc sut qu trnh sn xut c bo co t yu cu l
P(X {0, 1}) = P(X = 0) + P(X = 1) = 0.85
Gi Y l s ln qu trnh sn xut c bo co t yu cu trong 8 ln kim tra. Ta c
Y B(8, 0.85).
Ta cn tnh
P(X 7) = P(X = 7) + P(X = 8)
= C
7
8
(0.85)
7
(0.15)
1
+ C
8
8
(0.85)
8
(0.15)
0
= 0.6572
(b) Gi Z l s ln qu trnh sn xut c bo co khng t yu cu trong 8 ln kim tra.
Ta c Z B(8, 0.15) P(8 0.15 = 1.2).
Do ,
P(Y 7) = P(Z 1) = e
1.2
_
1.2
0
0!
+
1.2
1
1!
_
= 0.6626
(c) Theo gi thit, ta cn tnh
P(X = 0|X 1) =
P(X = 0, X 1)
P(X 1)
=
P(X = 0)
P(X 1)
=
0.35
0.85
= 0.4118
Gii bi 4.19. Ta c
P(X 1|X 1) =
P(X 1, X 1)
P(X 1)
=
P(X = 1)
P(X 1)
=
e
5
.5
e
5
+ e
5
.5
=
5
6
Gii bi 4.21.
86
(a) Xc sut khng phi tt c 4 chic t u c thu l
P(X 3) = P(X = 0) + P(X = 1) + P(X = 2) + P(X = 3)
= e
2
_
1 + 2 +
2
2
2!
+
2
3
3!
_
= 0.857
(b) Xc sut tt c 4 chic t u c thu l
P(X 4) = 1 P(X 3) = 1 0.857 = 0.143
(c) Xc sut ca hng khng p ng c yu cu l
P(X > 4) = P(X 4) P(X = 4)
= 0.143 e
2
2
4
4!
= 0.053
(d) Trung bnh s t c thu l EX = 2
(e) Ta c,
P(X > 5) = 1 P(X 5)
= 1 e
2
_
1 + 2 +
2
2
2!
+
2
3
3!
+
2
4
4!
+
2
5
5!
_
= 0.017 < 0.02
Nh vy s t cn thit xc sut khng p ng c nhu cu thu b hn 2% l 5.
Gii bi 4.23.
(a) Theo gi thit, ta c X P() v
P(X = 1) = 3P(X = 0)

1
1!
= 3
e

0
0!
= 3
Do ,
P(2 X 4) = P(X = 2) + P(X = 3) + P(X = 4)
= e
3
_
3
2
2!
+
3
3
3!
+
3
4
4!
_
= 0.6161
87
(b) Ta c P(X = 0) = e
3
= 0.0498. Theo gi thit, U B(100, 0.0498). Do ,
P(U 1) = P(U = 0) + P(U = 1)
= C
0
100
(0.0498)
0
(0.9502)
100
+ C
1
100
(0.0498)
1
(0.9502)
99
= 0.0377
Gii bi 4.25. Gi X
i
l s khch hng xut hin trong pht th i (i = 1, 2, 3). Theo gi thit
cc X
i
c lp nhau v X
i
P(5).
Gi Y l s khch hng xut hin trong khong thi gian 3 pht. Ta c Y = X
1
+ X
2
+ X
3
.
Theo bi (4.20), th Y P(15).
Ta cn tm
P(Y 10) = 1 P(Y 9) = 1
9

k=0
e
15
15
k
k!
= 0.9301
Gii bi 4.27. Ta c X P() v p = P(X = 0) =
e

0
0!
= e

.
Gi Y l s bnh quy khng c nho kh trong 20 bnh trong hp. Khi Y B(20, p).
Ta c iu kin
P(Y 2) = 0.925
P(Y = 0) + P(Y = 1) + P(Y = 2) = 0.925
C
0
20
p
0
q
20
+ C
1
20
p
1
q
19
+ C
2
20
p
2
q
18
= 0.925 vi q = 1 p
171q
20
360q
19
+ 190q
18
0.925 = 0
Gii phng trnh ny ta c q = 0.9501 tc p = 0.0499.
T = ln(0.0499) = 2.9977 3.
Ch rng, ta c th kim tra vi = 3, ta c
P(Y 2) 0.9502
20
+ 20(0.9502)
19
(0.0498)
+ 190(0.9502)
18
(0.0498)
2
0.925
Tuy nhin khng nht thit phi l s nguyn v n l s trung bnh nho kh c trong mt
ci bnh.
Gii bi 4.29.
(a) Gi
A
i
: "sn phm th i, c sn xut bi my u tin, l chnh phm" (i = 1, 2, . . .)
88
X l s sn phm c sn xut bi my u tin trc khi n to ra th phm u tin.
Ta c P(A
i
) = 0.98 vi mi i = 1, 2, . . . v
P(X = 0) = P(A
1
) = 0.02
P(X = 1) = P(A
1
A
2
) = 0(.98)(0.02)
. . .
P(X = n) = P(A
1
A
2
. . . A
n
A
n
+ 1) = (0.98)
n
(0.02)
. . .
Do ,
EX =

n=0
nP(X = n)
= 0.02

n=0
n(0.98)
n
(7.4)
t p = 0.98 < 1, ta cn tm

n=0
np
n
. Ta c
n

k=0
p
k
=
1 p
n+1
1 p
(7.5)
Ly o hm theo p hai v ca (7.5),
n

k=0
kp
k1
=
np
n+1
(n + 1)p
n
+ 1
(1 p)
2
(7.6)
Nhn hai v ca (7.6) cho p,
n

k=0
kp
k
=
np
n+2
(n + 1)p
n+1
+ p
(1 p)
2
=
np
n+1
(p 1) p
n+1
+ p
(1 p)
2
=
np
n+1
p + 1

p
n+1
(1 p)
2
+
p
(1 p)
2
(7.7)
Tip theo ta s chng minh lim
n
np
n
= 0. Tht vy, do p < 1 nn
1
p
> 1 hay
1
p
= 1 + r
vi r > 0 no . Ta c
np
n
=
n
(
1
n
)
n
=
n
(1 + r)
n
M (1 + r)
n
C
2
n
r
2
=
n(n1)
2
r
2
(do khai trin nh thc Newton). Nn
np
n

2
(n 1)r
2
0 khi n
89
Vy lim
n
np
n
= 0.
T , kt hp vi (7.7) ta suy ra

k=0
kp
k
= lim
n
n

k=0
kp
k
=
p
(1 p)
2
=
0.98
0.02
2
= 2450
Thay vo (7.4) ta c
EX = 0.02(2450) = 49
(b) Gi Y l s th phm trong 10 sn phm c chn. Ta c Y B(10, 0.02). Ta cn tm
P(Y 2) = P(Y = 0) + P(Y = 1) + P(Y = 2)
= C
0
10
(0.02)
0
(0.98)
10
+ C
1
10
(0.02)
1
(0.98)
9
+ C
2
10
(0.02)
2
(0.98)
8
= 0.9991
(c) Ta xp x Y bi phn phi Poisson sau: Y P(10(0.02)) = P(0.2). Do ,
P(Y 2) = P(Y = 0) + P(Y = 1) + P(Y = 2)
= e
0.2
_
0.2
0
0!
+
0.2
1
1!
+
0.2
2
2!
_
= 0.9989
(d) Gi
n l s sn phm t nht phi c ly ra tha yu cu.
Z l s th phm trong n sn phm.
Ta c Z B(n, 0.02) v
P(Z 1)
1
2
1 P(Z = 0)
1
2
P(Z = 0)
1
2
C
0
n
(0.02)
0
(0.98)
n

1
2
0.98
n

1
2
n
ln(1/2)
ln(0.98)
= 34.3096
Vy n = 35.
Gii bi 4.31. V X N(, 0.01
2
) nn Y =
X
0.1
N(0, 1).
90
(a) Ta cn tnh
P(X 1.15) = P
_
X
0.1

1.15
0.1
_
= P(Y 1.5)
= 1 (1.5)
= 1 0.9332 = 0.0668
(b) Gi chiu di xe cn tm l x
0.1
. Ta cn phi c P(X x
0.1
) = 0.9 hay P(X x
0.1
) = 0.1,
tc l P
_
X 4
0.4

x
0.1
4
0.4
_
=
_
x
0.1
4
0.4
_
= 0.1.
Suy ra
x
0.1
= 4 + 0.4z
0.1
= 4 0.4z
0.9
= 4 0.4(1.282) 3.49
Gii bi 4.33. Gi X l trng lng tri cy th X N(500, 4
2
). Vi Y =
X 500
4
th
Y N(0, 1). Do ,
(a) T l tri cy loi 1 l
P(X > 505) = P
_
X 500
4
>
505 500
4
_
= P(Y > 1.25)
= 1 (1.25)
= 0.106
(b) T l tri cy loi 2 l
P(495 X 505) = P
_
495 500
4

X 500
4

505 500
4
_
= P(1.25 Y 1.25)
= 0.788
(c) T l ca loi 3 l
P(X < 495) = P
_
X 500
4
<
495 500
4
_
= P(Y < 1.25)
= 0.106
Vy, tri cy thu hoch c c khong 11% loi 1, 78% loi 2 v 11% loi 3.
91
Gii bi 4.35. Gi X l chiu cao ca ngi trng thnh. Ta c, X N(175, 4
2
).
t Y =
X 175
4
th Y N(0, 1)
(a) t l ngi trng thnh c tm vc trn 180 cm l
P(X > 180) = 1 P(X 180)
= 1 P
_
X 175
4

180 175
4
_
= 1 P(Y 1.25)
= 1 (1.25)
= 1 0.894 = 0.106
(b) t l ngi trng thnh c chiu cao t 166 cm n 177 cm l
P(166 X 177) = P
_
166 175
4

X 175
4

177 175
4
_
= P(2.25 Y 0.5)
= (0.5) (2.25)
= (0.5) + (2.25) 1
= 0.692 + 0.988 1 = 0.68
(c) Ta c,
P(X < h
0
) = P
_
X 175
4

h
0
175
4
_
= P
_
Y
h
0
175
4
_
=
_
h
0
175
4
_
= 0.33
Ta thy 0.33 < 0.5 nn
h
0
175
4
< 0. Do ,
_
175 h
0
4
_
= 1 0.33 = 0.67.
Suy ra,
175 h
0
4
= 0.44, tc l h
0
= 173.24
(d) Ta tm a t iu kin sau:
P(175 a X 175 + a) = 0.9
92
Ta c,
P(175 a X 175 + a) = P
_
175 a 175
4

X 175
4

175 + a 175
4
_
= P
_
a
4
Y
a
4
_
= 2
_
a
4
_
1
Ta suy ra
_
a
4
_
= 0.95, tc l a = 6.6
Gii bi 4.37. Ta c
f
X
(x) =
1

2
exp
_

x
2
2(2)
_
= ln [f
X
(X)] = ln
_
1
2

X
2
4
Hn na E(X
2
) = V ar(X) + (EX)
2
= 2 + 0
2
= 2. Do
H = E
_
ln
_
1
2

_
+
X
2
4
_
= ln(2

) +
1
4
E(X
2
)
= ln(2

) +
2
4
1.766
L thuyt mu
Gii bi 5.1.
(a) Ta c bng tn s sau:
x
i
61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70
n
i
1 2 2 4 8 4 8 5 2 1
T ta tnh c,
x =
1
n
k

i=1
n
i
x
i
= 65.811
s
2
=
1
n 1
k

i=1
n
i
(x
i
x)
2
= 4.436
s = 2.106
(b) Ta c bng tn sut sau:
x
i
70 69 68 67 66 65 64 63 62 61
f
i
0.027 0.055 0.135 0.216 0.108 0.216 0.108 0.054 0.054 0.027
T bng trn, ta thy rng
P(X 66) = 0.541
1
2
P(X 66) = 0.568
1
2
Do , trung v ca chiu cao sinh vin lp ny l 66.
94
Gii bi 5.3. Ta c bng tn s sau:
x
i
43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52
n
i
1 2 2 3 1 2 4 4 3 2
Trung bnh mu:
x =
1
n
k

i=1
n
i
x
i
= 48.125
Phng sai mu:
s
2
=
1
n 1
k

i=1
n
i
(x
i
x)
2
= 7.245
lch tiu chun:
s =

s
2
= 2.692
Gii bi 5.5. Ta c,
n

i=1
y
i
=
n

i=1
(a + bx
i
)
= na + b
n

i=1
x
i
1
n
n

i=1
y
i
= a + b
1
n
n

i=1
x
i
y = a + bx
v
s
2
y
=
1
n 1
n

i=1
(y
i
y)
2
=
1
n 1
n

i=1
(a + bx
i
(a + bx))
2
=
1
n 1
n

i=1
b
2
(x
i
x)
2
= b
2
s
2
x
s
y
= |b|s
x
95
Gii bi 5.7. Ta c gi tr trung tm ca tng khong l
5.5, 15.5, 25.5, 35.5, 45.5, 55.5, 65.5, 75.5, 85.5, 95.5
Ta s dng php bin i sau:
y
i
=
x
i
55.5
10
Khi , gi tr ca y
i
s l 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 0, 1, 2, 3, 4. T ta tnh c,
y =
1
n
k

i=1
n
i
y
i
= 0.653
s
2
y
=
1
n 1
k

i=1
n
i
(y
i
y)
2
= 8.349
Do ,
x = 10y + 55.5
= 48.97
s
2
x
= 10
2
s
2
y
= 834.9
Gii bi 5.9.
n = 8, x = 3.0775, s
2
= 0.096
Gii bi 5.11.
n = 97, x = 19.133, s
2
= 0.054
c lng tham s thng k
Gii bi 6.1. Ta c n = 100 > 30,
2
cha bit. Khong c lng 95% cho gi tr trung bnh
tht c dng
_
x z
1

2
s

n
, x + z
1

2
s

n
_
Trong , = 0.05, z
1

2
= z
0.975
= 1.96, x = 0.1, s = 0.014. Do , khong c lng 95% cho
gi tr trung bnh tht l (0.0973, 0.1027)
Gii bi 6.3. Ta c n = 8 < 30, X c phn phi chun, = 300 bit. Do khong tin
cy cho 90% cho sc bn ca loi ng trn c dng,
_
x z
1

n
, x + z
1

n
_
Ta c = 0.1, z
0.95
= 1.65, x =
1
8

8
i=1
x
i
= 5325. Thay vo biu thc trn ta c khong tin cy
cn tm l (5149.991, 5500.009).
Gii bi 6.5.
(a) Ta vit li bng tn s sau:
x (cm) 142.5 147.5 152.5 157.5 162.5 167.5
S ngi 1 3 7 9 5 2
Do , ta nhn c n = 27, x = 156.2, s
2
= 37.68.
(b) Ta c, n = 27 < 30,
2
cha bit. Do , khong tin cy ca vi tin cy 0.95 l
_
x t
n1
1

2
s

n
, x + t
n1
1

2
s

n
_
Vi tin cy 0.95, ta c = 0.05 v t
26
0.975
= 2.056. Thay vo biu thc trn ta tm c
khong tin cy cho vi tin cy 0.95 l (153.77, 158.63)
97
Gii bi 6.7.
(a) Ta c n = 100 > 30, = 100. Do , khong tin cy cho tui th trung bnh ca bng n
c dng
_
x z
1

n
, x + z
1

n
_
Trong , x = 1000, = 0.05, z
1

2
= z
0.975
= 1.96.
Vy khong tin cy 95% cho tui th trung bnh ca bng n l (980.4, 1019.6).
(b) Ta c dung sai ca c lng l z
1

n
= z
1

2
100
10
= 15. T suy ra
z
1

2
= 1.5
Tra bng ta tm c = 0.13362 v do tin cy l 1 = 0.8664 = 86.64%
(c) Ta bit rng khi n cng ln th dung sai cng nh. Hn na, ta thy rng khi n = 29 < 30
th t
28
0.975
100

29
= 38.0304 > 25. Do gi tr n phi ln hn hoc bng 30. T iu kin
1.96.
100

n
25
Suy ra n 61.4656.
Vy ta cn th nghim t nht 62 bng
Gii bi 6.9.
(a) n = 53, trung bnh mu x = 12.21, lch chun s = 0.103.
(b) Ta c, kch thc mu n = 53 30,
2
cha bit. Do , vi tin cy 0.95, khong tin
cy ca l
_
x z
0.975
s

n
, x + z
0.975
s

n
_
Thay x, s v z
0.975
= 1.96 vo biu thc trn, ta tm c khong tin cy ca l
(12.18, 12.24)
(c) Ta bit rng khi n cng ln th dung sai cng nh. Hn na, vi n = 53 trong cu b) ta
thy = 0.028 > 0.02. Do , gi tr n phi ln hn 53. T iu kin
z
0.975
s

n
0.02
Suy ra n 101.89.
Vy ta phi quan st t nht 102 trng hp.
98
Gii bi 6.11.
(a) T bng s liu ca mu, ta c n = 128, x = 1391.41 v s = 234.45.
(b) Ta c n = 128 30,
2
cha bit. Vi tin cy 0.95, khong tin cy cho l
_
x z
0.975
s

n
, x + z
0.975
s

n
_
Thay x, s v z
0.975
= 1.96, ta c
(1350.79, 1432.03)
(c) Ta bit rng khi n cng ln th dung sai cng nh. Hn na, vi n = 128 trong cu b) ta
thy = 40.6 > 30. Do , gi tr n phi ln hn 128. T iu kin
z
0.975
s

n
30
Suy ra n 234.63.
Vy ta phi quan st t nht 235 bng n.
Gii bi 6.13. Ta c n = 2000, f =
1380
2000
= 0.69, nf = 1380 > 5, n(1 f) = 620 > 5. Do ,
khong tin cy 95% cho t l phiu bu c dng
_
f z
1

2
_
f(1 f)
n
, f + z
1

2
_
f(1 f)
n
_
tc l t l phiu bu ti thiu l
f z
1

2
_
f(1 f)
n
Thay f = 0.69, n = 2000, = 0.05, z
0.975
= 1.96 vo biu thc trn ta c 0.6697, tc l
66.97%.
Gii bi 6.15. sai s khng vt qu 2% th
z
1

2
_
f(1 f)
n
0.02
Trong , f = 0.9, = 0.1, z
1

2
= z
0.95
= 1.65. Do ,
n 612.5625
Vy ta cn phi khm t nht 613 ngi.
Gii bi 6.17.
99
(a) Khong tin cy cho t l p vi tin cy 1 l
_
f z
1

2
_
f(1 f)
n
, f + z
1

2
_
f(1 f)
n
_
Theo gi thit ta c tn sut khi bnh l f =
40
50
= 0.8.
Vi tin cy 0.95 ta c = 0.05 v z
0.975
= 1.96. Do , khong tin cy cho t l p vi
tin cy 0.95 l (0.69, 0.91).
Vi tin cy 0.99 ta c = 0.01 v z
0.995
= 2.58. Do , khong tin cy cho t l p vi
tin cy 0.99 l (0.65, 0.946).
(b) Ta c sai s ca c lng l
= z
1

2
_
f(1 f)
n
Vi tin cy 0.95 ta c = 0.05 v z
0.975
= 1.96. Do sai s khng vt qu 0.02 ta
cn iu kin
1.96
_
0.8 0.2
n
0.02
Suy ra n 1536.64.
Vy ta cn quan st t nht 1537 trng hp.
Gii bi 6.19. Ta c f =
20
500
= 0.04, nf = 20 > 5, n(1 f) = 480 > 5. Do , khong tin cy
95% cho t l c c nh du trong h c dng
_
f z
1+

2
_
f(1 f)
n
, f + z
1+

2
_
f(1 f)
n
_
Trong , = 0.05, z
1+

2
= z
0.975
= 1.96.
Do , khong tin cy 95% cho t l c c nh du trong h l (0.0228, 0.0572).
T , khong tin cy 95% cho s c c trong h l (34965.03, 877719.3)
Gii bi 6.21.
(a) Ta c x =
1
n

k
i=1
n
i
x
i
= 35.89, s
2
=
1
n1

k
i=1
n
i
(x
i
x)
2
= 3.21, s = 1.792.
Ta c n = 100 > 30,
2
cha bit. Do , khong tin cy 95% cho khi lng trung bnh
cc qu cam c dng
_
x z
1

2
s

n
, x + z
1

2
s

n
_
Trong , = 0.1, z
1

2
= z
0.975
= 1.96. T , khong tin cy 95% cho khi lng trung
bnh cc qu cam l (35.539, 36.241)
100
(b) Ta c f =
5
100
= 0.05, nf = 5 5, n(1 f) = 95 5. Do , khong c lng cho t l
loi 2 vi tin cy 90% c dng
_
f z
1

2
_
f(1 f)
n
, f + z
1

2
_
f(1 f)
n
_
Trong , = 0.1, z
1

2
= z
0.95
= 1.65. Vy khong c lng cho t l loi 2 vi tin
cy 90% l (0.014, 0.086)
Kim nh gi thuyt thng k
Gii bi 7.1. Ta cn kim nh cc gi thuyt
_
_
_
H
0
: = 380
H
1
: = 380
y l trng hp n = 36 30 v
2
cha bit, nn ta dng
z =

n(x )
s
=

36(350 380)
40
= 4.5
Ta thy |z| > z
1

2
= z
0.975
= 1.96. Do ta bc b gi thuyt H
0
. Ngha l li bo co ca
gim c khng ng tin cy.
Gii bi 7.3. Ta cn kim nh cc gi thuyt
_
_
_
H
0
: = 25
H
1
: < 25
y l trng hp n = 15 < 30 v
2
cha bit, X c phn phi chun, nn ta dng
t =

n(x )
s
=

15(24 25)
2
= 1.9365
Ta thy t < t
n1

= t
14
0.05
= t
14
0.95
= 1.761. Do ta bc b gi thuyt H
0
. Ngha l sc mua
ca khch hng hin nay thc s gim st.
102
Gii bi 7.5. Ta cn kim nh cc gi thuyt
_
_
_
H
0
: = 14
H
1
: < 14
y l trng hp n = 25 < 30 v
2
cha bit, X c phn phi chun, nn ta dng
t =

n(x )
s
=

25(12.5 14)
2.5
= 3
Ta thy t < t
n1

= t
24
0.05
= t
24
0.95
= 1.711. Do ta bc b gi thuyt H
0
. Ngha l iu kin
chn nui km i lm cho lng sa gim xung.
Gii bi 7.7. Ta tnh c
k = 6
n = 100
x =
1
n
k

i=1
n
i
x
i
= 0.9856
s
2
=
1
n 1
k

i=1
n
i
(x
i
x)
2
= 0.000433
s = 0.0208
Ta cn kim nh cc gi thuyt
_
_
_
H
0
: = 1
H
1
: = 1
y l trng hp n = 100 > 30 v
2
cha bit, nn ta dng
z =

n(x )
s
=

100(0.9856 1)
0.0208
= 6.9204
Ta thy |z| z
0.975
= 1.96. Do ta bc b gi thuyt H
0
. Ngha l my hot ng khng bnh
thng.
Gii bi 7.9.
103
(a) Ta a v bng gi tr sau
x 155 165 175 185 195 205
S ngi 3 9 11 3 2 1
Ta tnh c
k = 6
n = 29
x =
1
n
k

i=1
n
i
x
i
= 173.2759
s
2
=
1
n 1
k

i=1
n
i
(x
i
x)
2
= 143.3498
s = 11.9729
(b) Ta c n = 29 < 30,
2
cha bit. Do , khong tin cy cho trung bnh cholesterol trong
dn s c dng
_
x t
n1
1

2
s

n
, x + t
n1
1

2
s

n
_
Trong , = 0.05, t
n1
1

2
= t
28
0.975
= 2.048.
Thay vo ta tm c khong tin cy 95% cho trung bnh cholesterol trong dn s l
(168.7226, 177.8292).
(c) Ta cn kim nh cc gi thuyt
_
_
_
H
0
: = 175
H
1
: = 175
Ta c:
t =

n(x )
s
=

29(173.2759 175)
11.9729
= 0.7755
Ta thy |t| t
28
0.975
= 2.048. Do ta chp nhn gi thuyt H
0
. Ngha l gi tr mu ph
hp vi ti liu.
104
Gii bi 7.11.
(a) Ta tnh c
k = 7
n = 36
x =
1
n
k

i=1
n
i
x
i
= 2.6389
s
2
=
1
n 1
k

i=1
n
i
(x
i
x)
2
= 3.3802
s = 1.8385
Ta c n = 36 30,
2
cha bit. Do , khong tin cy cho s khuyt tt trung bnh
mi sn phm sau khi ci tin c dng
_
x z
1

2
s

n
, x + z
1

2
s

n
_
Trong , = 0.1, z
1

2
= z
0.95
= 1.65.
Thay vo ta tm c khong tin cy 90% cho s khuyt tt trung bnh mi sn phm
sau khi ci tin l (2.1333, 3.1445).
(b) Ta cn kim nh cc gi thuyt
_
_
_
H
0
: = 3
H
1
: < 3
y l trng hp n = 36 30 v
2
cha bit, nn ta dng
z =

n(x )
s
=

36(2.6389 3)
1.8385
= 1.1785
Ta thy z z
0.05
= z
0.95
= 1.65. Do ta chp nhn gi thuyt H
0
. Ngha l ci tin
khng hiu qu.
Gii bi 7.13. t Z = Y X ch trng lng thay i sau khi n king. Ta c bng
z
i
= y
i
x
i
nh sau
105
z
i
-5 -1 -5 0 -6 -4 -7 -6 5 -10
z
i
-1 -1 -6 -4 5 0 -4 -2 1 -9
Ta tnh c
n = 20
z =
1
n
n

i=1
z
i
= 3
s
2
=
1
n 1
n

i=1
(z
i
z)
2
= 16.5263
s = 4.0653
Ta cn kim nh cc gi thuyt
_
_
_
H
0
: = 0
H
1
: = 0
y l trng hp n = 20 < 30 v
2
cha bit, nn ta dng
t =

n(z )
s
=

20(3 0)
4.0653
= 3.3002
Ta thy |t| > t
n1
1

2
= t
19
0.975
= 2.093. Do ta bc b gi thuyt H
0
. Ngha l ch n king c
tc dng lm thay i trng lng.
Gii bi 7.15. Ta cn kim nh cc gi thuyt
_
_
_
H
0
:
1
=
2
H
1
:
1
=
2
Ta tnh c
z =
x
1
x
2
_

2
1
n
1
+

2
2
n
2
=
18 24
_
3
2
20
+
3
2
20
= 6.3246
106
Ta thy |z| > z
1
= z
0.95
= 1.65. Do , ta bc b gi thuyt H
0
ngha l hai loi cht n lng
ny c tc t chy khc nhau.
Gii bi 7.17. Ta cn kim nh cc gi thuyt
_
_
_
H
0
:
X
=
Y
H
1
:
X
>
Y
Ta tnh c
s
2
=
(n
1
1)s
2
x
+ (n
2
1)s
2
y
n
1
+ n
2
2
=
(50 1)7
2
+ (40 1)9.2
2
50 + 40 2
= 64.795
s = 8.0495
v
t =
x y
s
_
1
n
1
+
1
n
2
=
60 52
8.0495
_
1
50
+
1
40
= 4.6851
Ta thy t > t
n
1
+n
2
2
1
= t
88
0.95
z
0.95
= 1.65. Do , ta bc b gi thuyt H
0
ngha l hm lng
ng trong mu sau 5 gi lm vic gim i.
Gii bi 7.19. Gi X, Y ln lt l trng lng tr s sinh nng thn v thnh th.
Ta cn kim nh cc gi thuyt
_
_
_
H
0
:
X
=
Y
H
1
:
X
<
Y
Ta tnh c
s
2
=
(n
1
1)s
2
x
+ (n
2
1)s
2
y
n
1
+ n
2
2
=
(8000 1)0.3
2
+ (2000 1)0.2
2
8000 + 2000 2
= 0.08
s = 0.2828
107
v
t =
x y
s
_
1
n
1
+
1
n
2
=
3 3.2
0.2828
_
1
8000
+
1
2000
= 28.2885
Ta thy t < t
n
1
+n
2
2
1
= t
9998
0.95
z
0.95
= 1.65. Do , ta bc b gi thuyt H
0
ngha l trng lng
trung bnh ca tr s sinh thnh th cao hn nng thn.
Gii bi 7.21. Ta tnh c
n
1
= 10
n
2
= 10
x =
1
n
1
n
1

i=1
x
i
= 16.015
y =
1
n
2
n
2

i=1
y
i
= 16.005
s
2
x
=
1
n
1
1
n
1

i=1
(x
i
x)
2
= 0.000917
s
x
= 0.0303
s
2
y
=
1
n
2
1
n
2

i=1
(y
i
y)
2
= 0.00065
s
y
= 0.0255
Ta cn kim nh cc gi thuyt
_
_
_
H
0
:
1
=
2
H
1
:
1
=
2
Ta tnh c
s
2
=
(n
1
1)s
2
x
+ (n
2
1)s
2
y
n
1
+ n
2
2
=
(10 1)0.000917 + (10 1)0.00065
10 + 10 2
= 0.000783
s = 0.028
108
v
t =
x y
s
_
1
n
1
+
1
n
2
=
16.015 16.005
0.028
_
1
10
+
1
10
= 0.7986
Ta thy |t| < t
n
1
+n
2
2
1
= t
18
0.95
= 1.734. Do , ta chp nhn gi thuyt H
0
ngha l hai my rt
nc vo bnh nh nhau.
Gii bi 7.23.
(a) Ta a v bng gi tr sau
Trng lng 3100 3300 3500 3700 3900
S b trai 1 3 8 10 3
S b gi 2 10 10 5 1
Ta tnh c
k = 5
N
1
= 25
N
2
= 28
x =
1
N
1
k

i=1
n
i
x
i
= 3588
y =
1
N
2
k

i=1
n
i
y
i
= 3450
s
2
x
=
1
N
1
1
k

i=1
n
i
(x
i
x)
2
= 40266.67
s
x
= 200.6656
s
2
y
=
1
N
2
1
k

i=1
n
i
(y
i
y)
2
= 37407.41
s
y
= 193.4099
(b) Ta cn kim nh cc gi thuyt
_
_
_
H
0
:
X
=
Y
H
1
:
X
=
Y
109
Ta tnh c
s
2
=
(N
1
1)s
2
x
+ (N
2
1)s
2
y
N
1
+ N
2
2
=
(25 1)40266.67 + (28 1)37407.41
25 + 28 2
= 38752.94
s = 196.8577
v
t =
x y
s
_
1
N
1
+
1
N
2
=
3588 3450
196.8577
_
1
25
+
1
28
= 2.5476
Ta thy |t| > t
n
1
+n
2
2
1
= t
51
0.95
z
0.95
= 1.65. Do , ta bc b gi thuyt H
0
ngha l trng
lng b trai v b gi lc s sinh khc nhau.
(c) Nhp hai mu li, ta c
Trng lng 3100 3300 3500 3700 3900
S tr s sinh 3 13 18 15 4
Ta tnh c
k = 5
N = 53
z =
1
N
k

i=1
n
i
z
i
= 3515.094
s
2
z
=
1
N 1
k

i=1
n
i
(z
i
z)
2
= 42844.7
s
z
= 206.9896
Ta c N = 53 30,
2
cha bit. Do , khong tin cy cho sc nng trung bnh ca tr
s sinh c dng
_
z z
1

2
s
z

N
, z + z
1

2
s
z

N
_
Trong , = 0.05, z
1

2
= z
0.975
= 1.96.
Thay vo ta tm c khong tin cy 95% cho sc nng trung bnh ca tr s sinh l
(3459.367, 3570.821).
110
Gii bi 7.25. Ta cn kim nh cc gi thuyt
_
_
_
H
0
: p = 0.98
H
1
: p < 0.98
Ta c n = 500, f =
500 28
500
= 0.944, nf = 472 5 v n(1 f) = 28 5.
Do , ta dng
z =

n(f p)

pq
=

500(0.944 0.98)

0.98 0.02
= 5.7499
Ta thy z < z

= z
0.05
= z
0.95
= 1.65. Do ta bc b gi thuyt H
0
. Ngha l cht lng
lm vic ca my khng cn tt nh trc.
Gii bi 7.27. Ta cn kim nh cc gi thuyt
_
_
_
H
0
: p = 0.8
H
1
: p = 0.8
Ta c n = 36, f =
25
36
= 0.6944, nf = 25 5 v n(1 f) = 11 5.
Do , ta dng
z =

n(f p)

pq
=

36(0.6944 0.8)

0.8 0.2
= 1.584
Ta thy |z| z
1

2
= z
0.975
= 1.96. Do ta chp nhn gi thuyt H
0
. Ngha l ngun tin ny
ng tin cy.
Gii bi 7.29.
(a) Ta cn kim nh cc gi thuyt
_
_
_
H
0
: p = 0.05
H
1
: p = 0.05
111
Ta c n = 800, f =
24
800
= 0.03, nf = 24 5 v n(1 f) = 776 5.
Do , ta dng
z =

n(f p)

pq
=

800(0.03 0.05)

0.05 0.95
= 2.5955
Ta thy |z| > z
1

2
= z
0.995
= 2.58. Do ta bc b gi thuyt H
0
. Ngha l bin php k
thut mi lm thay i t l ph phm.
(b) Ta cn kim nh cc gi thuyt
_
_
_
H
0
: p = 0.02
H
1
: p = 0.02
Ta c n = 800, f =
24
800
= 0.03, nf = 24 5 v n(1 f) = 776 5.
Do , ta dng
z =

n(f p)

pq
=

800(0.03 0.02)

0.02 0.98
= 2.0203
Ta thy |z| z
1

2
= z
0.995
= 2.58. Do ta chp nhn gi thuyt H
0
. Ngha l nh my
bo co t l ph phm l chp nhn c.
Gii bi 7.31. Gi
p
1
: t l n x A
p
2
: t l n x B
Ta cn kim nh cc gi thuyt
_
_
_
H
0
: p
1
= p
2
H
1
: p
1
= p
2
112
Ta c
n
1
= 250 30
n
2
= 160 30
f
1
=
140
250
= 0.56
f
2
=
80
160
= 0.5
p =
n
1
f
1
+ n
2
f
2
n
1
+ n
2
=
250 0.56 + 160 0.5
250 + 160
= 0.5366
Ta tnh c
z =
f
1
f
2
_
p q
_
1
n
1
+
1
n
2
_
=
0.56 0.5
_
0.5366(1 0.5366)
_
1
250
+
1
160
_
= 1.1885
Ta thy |z| < z
1

2
= z
0.975
= 1.96. Do ta chp nhn gi thuyt H
0
. Ngha l t l n hai x
bng nhau.
Gii bi 7.33. Gi
p
1
: t l tr s sinh c trng lng trn 3000 gam thnh ph
p
2
: t l tr s sinh c trng lng trn 3000 gam nng thn
Ta cn kim nh cc gi thuyt
_
_
_
H
0
: p
1
= p
2
H
1
: p
1
= p
2
113
Ta c
n
1
= 150 30
n
2
= 200 30
f
1
=
100
150
= 0.6667
f
2
=
98
200
= 0.49
p =
n
1
f
1
+ n
2
f
2
n
1
+ n
2
=
150 0.6667 + 200 0.49
150 + 200
= 0.5657
Ta tnh c
z =
f
1
f
2
_
p q
_
1
n
1
+
1
n
2
_
=
0.6667 0.49
_
0.5657(1 0.5657)
_
1
150
+
1
200
_
= 3.3005
Ta thy |z| > z
1

2
= z
0.975
= 1.96. Do ta bc b gi thuyt H
0
. Ngha l t l tr s sinh c
trng lng trn 3000 gam thnh ph v nng thn khc nhau mc ngha 5%.