Kinh T Vit Nam THNG TRM Va T Pha

KINH T VIT NAM THNG TRM V T PH
Phm Minh Chnh Vng Qun Hong

Bn in - Gi Nh xut bn - Bo mt
Ngy 12 thng 5 nm 2009
Thng trm v t ph
iii
KINH T VIT NAM: THNG TRM V T PH
Li Nh xut bn
K t khi ginh c c lp n nay, nn kinh t Vit Nam tri qua nhiu thng trm, t ph, m bc t ph quan trng nht chnh l s i mi t duy v m hnh pht trin kinh t t nm 1986 n nay. Cng cuc i Mi mi ch c thc hin trong hn 20 nm, nhng nc ta t c nhng thnh tu to ln, c ngha rt quan trng trong tt c cc lnh vc kinh t, x hi, an ninh, quc phng, c bn a nc ta thot khi tnh trng mt nc km pht trin. Tuy nhin, trong qu trnh thc hin cng cuc i Mi, kinh t - x hi nc ta cng bc l nhiu vn yu km cn phi khc phc nh: cht lng pht trin nn kinh t nhn chung cn thp, tnh cnh tranh trong ton b nn kinh t km; th ch kinh t th trng nh hng x hi ch ngha hnh thnh chm v cha ng b, vic kt hp pht trin kinh t vi gii quyt cc vn x hi cn nhiu hn ch... Hin nay, cuc khng hong ti chnh th gii nm 2008 v ang tc ng r nt n nn kinh t nc ta. Chng ta ang phi i mt vi nhng kh khn v vn thanh khon ca h thng tn dng, li sut ngn hng khng n nh, nhng cn st gi lng thc v nng lng, s st gim ca th trng chng khon... Nhng c s lnh o sng sut ca ng v Nh nc thng qua vic ban hnh nhng chnh sch, gii php thc hin kp thi, h thng kinh t Vit Nam ghi nhn c nhiu tn hiu tch cc t th trng. gip bn c c thm ti liu nghin cu, tham kho v lch s pht trin kinh t Vit Nam, nh gi c tc ng ca cc yu t bn ngoi m nn kinh t nc ta s phi ng u trong nm 2009 v nhng nm tip theo, lm r nhng kh khn, thch thc, c hi v gii php nhm pht trin nn kinh t nc ta, Nh xut bn Chnh tr quc v
vi
c Phm Minh Chnh & Vng Qun Hong
gia xut bn cun sch Kinh t Vit Nam - Thng trm v t ph ca hai tc gi: Phm Minh Chnh v Vng Qun Hong. Cun sch bao gm 13 chng c chia thnh 3 phn vi trng tm nghin cu l h thng th trng v cc phng tin kim sot ti chnh - tin t. Vi h thng t liu kh phong ph c su tm, tuyn chn v tnh ton t nhiu ngun trong nc v nc ngoi trong nhng khong thi gian di, cun sch s cung cp cho bn c nhng nt chm ph ln trong bc tranh kinh t Vit Nam t khi ginh c c lp n nay. T vic phn tch qu trnh thay i ca c ch, chnh sch ni chung v i vi khu vc ti chnh, ngn hng, cc th trng ni ring, cc tc gi nu r nhng vn cn tn ti v gi m hng khc phc. c bit, cc tc gi tp trung nghin cu su v cc th trng bt ng sn, th trng vng v la M, th trng chng khon Vit Nam. C th ni, y l mt trong rt t sch vit v cc th trng ny vi nhiu thng tin v nhn nh sc so, c gi tr gi m suy ngh. Cc tc gi ca cun sch c gng c th khi qut c qu trnh pht trin kinh t lu di ca nc ta vi nhng giai on thng trm, t ph, nhng y l mt vn rt rng v c nhiu kh khn trong qu trnh thu thp v x l thng tin, nn cun sch khng trnh khi cn khim khuyt. Nh xut bn v cc tc gi rt mong nhn c kin ng gp ca bn c c th hon thin cun sch trong nhng ln xut bn sau. Xin trn trng gii thiu cun sch vi bn c. Thng 4 nm 2009 NH XUT BN CHNH TR QUC GIA
Thng trm v t ph
vii
Cu hi t duy vi nhng vn v hin tng c tnh quy lut Mt thi k pht trin kinh t quan trng trong lch s xy dng t nc Vit Nam c khc ha trong hn 500 trang ni dung ca cun sch. y l cng trnh nghin cu ng trn trng, l kt qu s kin tr, n lc ca hai tc gi trong vic tp hp c s d liu, nghin cu, thng k, phn tch v pht hin nhng bc thng trm ca kinh t t nc. Kt qu ny b sung t liu qu gi cho vic nhn nhn, nh gi m hnh pht trin kinh t - x hi v gp phn lm r hn qu trnh pht trin th ch kinh t th trng nh hng x hi ch ngha nc ta. Tng bc ngot ln ca nn kinh t c phn nh, phn tch tng i r nt lm ni r nhng c trng ca kinh t Vit Nam. Cun sch cng gp phn cung cp thm gc quan st mi m cuc khng hong ti chnh ang din ra trn phm vi ton cu t nm 2007 n nay v ng thi can thip ca cc chnh ph trn th gii. y l nhng phn tch v nh gi c ngha cho cng tc xy dng chin lc pht trin kinh t v iu hnh v m. Bn cnh , cun sch li cu hi cn tip tc t duy v nhng hin tng v vn c tnh quy lut xut hin trong nn kinh t Vit Nam. cng c th l xut pht im cho mt s hng nghin cu l lun tip theo v pht trin kinh t ca Vit Nam da trn cc th trng v ti sn trng yu. H Ni, ngy 8 thng 4 nm 2009 Tin s Nguyn Hu T Ph Chnh Vn phng Trung ng ng
viii
M x lch s nh l s khi ng n tng lai Cun sch Kinh t Vit Nam - Thng trm v t ph l cng trnh nghin cu mt giai on pht trin si ng bc nht ca nn kinh t Vit Nam giai on i Mi, chuyn t nn kinh t k hoch ha tp trung sang nn kinh t th trng. y ch thc l mt cng trnh nghin cu lch s kinh t, gn vi mt giai on, do v tr lch s kh c bit ca n, c m x, phn tch, nh gi k cng, khng ch bi cc hc gi Vit Nam m cn ca nhiu nh nghin cu trn th gii. Nhng mc d c chung ch v chung mc tiu vi cc cng trnh nghin cu lch s kinh t Vit Nam hin i nghin cu qu trnh i mi kinh t, cun sch ca hai tc gi Phm Minh Chnh v Vng Qun Hong vn mang tnh c o, khc bit v c sc trn nhiu phng din. Chnh y l l do a ra li khuyn khng h mu m: khng ch nn v cn rt cn c cun sch ny. Xin c nu ra, c th cn cha y , nhng cn c ca li khuyn . Th nht, trong cun sch ny, lch s kinh t Vit Nam, trong giai on ho hng nht ca n, c m x theo cch tip cn hin i, vi nhng cng c hin i. l lch s v m ca nn kinh t th trng (ng hn, ca nn kinh t chuyn i sang th trng) ch khng phi ca nn kinh t cy con, ngnh ngh nh vn c thc hin trong nhiu cng trnh nghin cu lch s kinh t Vit Nam ca cc hc gi Vit Nam cho n nay. S phn tch hin thc lch s kinh t c cc tc gi t trn nn tng cc tri thc, l thuyt v cng c ca mn kinh t hc hin i. Th hai, lch s kinh t quc gia ca mt giai on xc nh khng di, c t trong khng gian kinh t th gii v trong phng lch s di hn. Lch s din ra trong mch thi gian v khng gian lin tc ch khng h b ct on. Nh cch tip cn m vic nhn nhn, l gii cc s kin c th tr nn c chiu su, c lun c cht ch v xc ng hn. Th ba, tnh cp nht cao cc bin c, s kin. Cc tc gi khng c nh lch s theo nhng mc thi gian cng m m bin ra c hai u, nht l u hng ti tng lai. C cm tng rng ngay c khi cun sch ln khun in, cc tc gi vn cn n ngh dng li
Thng trm v t ph
ix
b sung thm vi s kin ng i vo lch s va mi xy ra. Cch kt ni lch s vi hin ti, coi hin ti l lch s ang din ra nh vy gip cun sch cp mt cch t nhin cc vn thi s nng bng ca nn kinh t trong hai nm gia nhp WTO v chu tc ng mnh m ca cuc khng hong kinh t - ti chnh ton cu trm nm c mt ang din ra mt cch nng hi v su sc. gc ny, cun sch ca Phm Minh Chnh v Vng Qun Hong khng cn l mt cun sch s m l cng trnh nghin cu cc vn ng i. iu gp phn lm tng thm gi tr thc tin, tnh gi khoa hc v ng gp chnh sch ca cng trnh. Th t, trong n lc p ng yu cu kht khe t ra cng vic chp s, cc tc gi ca cun sch khng ch lm cng vic m t lch s theo cch bin nin, cng khng ch m x cc s kin theo li khch quan dng dng v cm. Cc nhn nh, bnh lun ca cun sch mang tnh phn bin cao, vi mt thi trch nhim y . Nhn giai on lch s c nh gi chung l thnh cng ngon mc khng ch qua cc s kin t ph oai hng m quan trng hn - qua din bin thng trm gn vi nhng kh khn, yu km v sai st trong vic la chn v thc thi mt phng cch pht trin cha c tin l lch s bng con mt ph phn khoa hc c th coi l nt c sc ni bt nht ca cun sch ny. Thc ra, c th k thm nhiu ci ng c gi l u im ca cun sch. Tuy nhin, c hai l khng nn lm cng vic c th ni l khng nn lm, khng ng lm ny. Mt l, hy cun sch t gii thiu v mnh. Mi s khen ngi, d l xc ng, vn d gy ra cm gic ca tng v li. Hai l, hy cho mi ngi c t mnh thm nh gi tr cun sch. V phn ti, trong thc phn bin, thy r rng bn cnh nhng u im thc s ng khen, c v mt ni dung khoa hc ln v mt phng php lun (m ti nh gi cao nht mt ny), cun sch vn cn nhng im khuyt thiu cn c b tc, chnh sa nng cht lng ln ng tm ch m n cp. Gi tr lch s - thi i i vi dn tc Vit Nam ca cng cuc lt xc, chuyn i mt phng thc pht trin tn ti hng ngn nm sang phng thc pht trin m a s nhn loi ang thc hin, l im cn c nhn mnh
hn, lm r hn qua cc thng trm v t ph. Hoc gi nh nh v r hn vai tr ca cc lc lng ch th ca qu trnh ny v.v.. Nhng qu tht, nhng i hi ny cng v cng. Chng cng cn c bt ngun t mi c gi. im cui cng cn ni: cun sch ny, cng vi mt vi cun sch khc, chng t cn c cch tip cn mi, cc cng c mi v h tri thc mi m x, phn tch cc qu trnh thc tin. Bn thn cun sch c coi l mt s khi ng tht s, rt ng trn trng cho qu trnh . y mnh hn qu trnh ny l mt cch, mt ni dung hi nhp quc t - hi nhp khoa hc, ng thi l cch thc y s pht trin trong hi nhp ca nn kinh t nc ta. Cm n cc tc gi mang li cho ti cm hng vit nhng dng ni trn. Xin c chia s cm hng vi cc qu v c gi. H Ni, ngy 14 thng 4 nm 2009 Ph Gio s, Tin s Trn nh Thin Quyn Vin trng, Vin Kinh t Vit Nam
Thng trm v t ph
xi
Nhng kin gii su sc v gc nhn mi m Ti c tip cn mt s sch vit v lch s kinh t Vit Nam, nhng ln u tin c c bn tho mt cun sch m trong c s kt hp kh tinh t v thit thc lch s kinh t Vit Nam, ng thi gn ton b qu trnh vn ng ca nn kinh t quc dn vi nhng cu chuyn v khng hong kinh t - ti chnh th gii vo cui thp nin u ca th k XXI. Chnh t vic tng kt mt chng ng di ca kinh t Vit Nam lm ni bt hn nhng t ph ca giai on i Mi ton din t nc do ng ta khi xng t i hi VI (nm 1986). Cun sch l mt khi lng cng vic ln, m ti ngh nu khng c tm huyt v ngh nghip cng nh i vi t nc v tinh thn lm vic nghim tc th kh c th hon thnh. Bn c s nhn c nhiu iu b ch, nht l i vi cng ng hc thut v cc nh hoch nh chnh sch. Ti thc s tm c v chia s vi nhm tc gi v nhng kin gii su sc v gc nhn mi m v din bin ca cuc khng hong ti chnh ton cu t nm 2007 n nay, vai tr ca chnh ph trong nn kinh t hin i, s dng van tin t (chnh sch tin t) iu tit v nh hng vi m cc tc nhn kinh t... Cun sch cng gi nhng la chn v vai tr v v tr ca nn kinh t Vit Nam trong sn chi ton cu. H Ni, ngy 10 thng 4 nm 2009 Ph Gio s, Tin s L Xun nh Trng ban Kinh t, Tp ch Cng sn
xii
Cc vn kinh t c bn vi t liu, s kin m cht thi s i mi v hi nhp thnh cng hay khng ty thuc vo qu trnh hnh thnh v pht trin ca h thng ti chnh - tin t. Di gc nhn ny, cc tc gi c nhng ng gp to ln khi m x nn kinh t Vit Nam bng nhng cng c phn tch ti chnh. Mt im th v khc: cc vn kinh t c bn c trnh by vi nhng t liu, s kin nng hi m c tnh cht thi s ca Vit Nam v th gii. Mt cun sch li cun ngi c t u n cui vi nhiu gi m tho lun, to nn s khc bit so vi nhng cun sch khc vit v kinh t Vit Nam. H Ni, ngy 6 thng 4 nm 2009 Tin s Ch Vn Lm Tng Bin tp, Tp ch Nghin cu kinh t
Mc lc
Danh mc hnh nh Danh mc bng biu 1 Sng gi 1.1 Sng gi ni ln . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.1.1 Khng hong tn dng Hoa K 2007-2008 . . . 1.1.2 u c quc t tng mnh . . . . . . . . . . . 1.1.3 Th trng chng khon quc t bin ng kh lng . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.1.4 Lm pht bng n khp ni . . . . . . . . . 1.1.5 Du hiu nh n . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1.2 Tin t tm bo . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xix xxiii 1 4 5 7 17 19 24 26
I
2
THNG TRM
Nhng ht mm u tin 2.1 Truyn thng khi nghip kinh doanh . . . . . . . . . 2.2 Lm quen vi ngn hng . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Cam go c lp tin t: 1945-1954 3.1 Bi cnh lch s, kinh t . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.2 u tranh ginh c lp tin t . . . . . . . . . . . . . xiii
33
35 36 42 51 51 55
xiv 4
Kinh t Vit Nam thi k 1955-1985 4.1 Bc tranh kinh t Vit Nam 20 nm chin tranh . . . . 4.1.1 Nhng thnh tu u tin . . . . . . . . . . . 4.1.2 Hi ngh Trung ng thng 12/1956 . . . . . . 4.1.3 S trm lng sau nm 1958 v i hi ng III 4.1.4 M hnh kinh t no cho Vit Nam? . . . . . . 4.2 H thng ti chnh . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.2.1 H thng ngn hng mt cp . . . . . . . . . . 4.2.2 i tin nm 1959 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.2.3 Ngoi hi v vng . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.2.4 H thng tn dng v ngn sch nh nc . . . 4.3 10 nm ha bnh u tin . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Kinh t ti chnh thi k i Mi: 1986-2000 5.1 i Mi . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.2 Thnh tu v nn tng pht trin . . . . . . . . . . 5.2.1 Tng trng kinh t . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.2.2 C phn ha doanh nghip nh nc . . . 5.2.3 y li lm pht phi m . . . . . . . . . . . 5.2.4 Hot ng ngoi thng . . . . . . . . . . 5.2.5 Thu ht u t nc ngoi . . . . . . . . . 5.3 H thng ti chnh mi . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.3.1 Hnh lang php l cho h thng ngn hng 5.3.2 Tn dng phi chnh thc . . . . . . . . . . 5.3.3 Gp vn c phn . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
65 68 69 70 72 73 76 76 77 79 82 87 95 96 98 98 101 105 109 110 114 115 117 119 121 123 127 132
c trng bin ng kinh t trong qu trnh chuyn i 6.1 S lc qu trnh chuyn i . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6.2 c trng cc thi im bin ng . . . . . . . . . . . 6.3 Lun im ct li v vn gi m . . . . . . . . . . .
II
7
T PH
t ph t duy kinh t: i Mi 7.1 T ch nh n t nh . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
139
141 142
Thng trm v t ph
xv 146 146 151 154 156 159 161 161 163 167 171 175 176 176 178 181 184 189 191 197 203 205 208 211 213 225 226 227
7.2
7.3 7.4 7.5 7.6
7.7 8
Nh nc trong giai on chuyn i . . . . . . . . . . 7.2.1 i mi kinh t t nm 1986, tin trnh ng hng . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.2.2 Ming ghp no cn thiu? . . . . . . . . . . . Cng nhn kinh t t nhn . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Ci thin nng lc cnh tranh ca khu vc kinh t nh nc . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Sa i Hin php nm 1992 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Dng vn quc t . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.6.1 M ca u t v thng mi . . . . . . . . . . 7.6.2 u t trc tip nc ngoi . . . . . . . . . . . 7.6.3 FPI v im n ngn hng - ti chnh . . . . . Ti hi nhp kinh t quc t . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
H thng ngn hng hai cp 8.1 Ngn hng Nh nc Vit Nam . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.1.1 Ngn hng Nh nc Vit Nam . . . . . . . . 8.1.2 Lut Ngn hng Nh nc v Lut cc t chc tn dng . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.1.3 Tin c to ra t u? . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.1.4 Bng tng kt ti sn ca ngn hng trung ng 8.2 H thng ngn hng hai cp Vit Nam . . . . . . . . 8.2.1 H thng ngn hng thng mi Vit Nam . 8.2.2 Vai tr ch o ca ngn hng thng mi nh nc . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.2.3 Ngun gc ca ri ro . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.2.4 Ln sng chuyn i v thnh lp mi ngn hng thng mi . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.3 Hp tc x tn dng nhn dn . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8.4 Hin din ca t chc tn dng nc ngoi . . . . . . . 8.5 Th trng lin ngn hng . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Ti sn v th trng 9.1 Tin ng Vit Nam . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.1.1 Li sut . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
xvi
9.2
9.3
9.4
9.1.2 T gi hi oi . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.1.3 Th trng tn dng ngn hng . . . . . . . . . Vng trong i sng kinh t Vit Nam . . . . . . . . . 9.2.1 Chc nng ca vng . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.2.2 Quy nh sn xut v giao dch vng Vit Nam 9.2.3 Tng quan nghin cu v vng . . . . . . . . . 9.2.4 Kho st thng k th trng vng Vit Nam . 9.2.5 Th trng vng trong nc v quc t . . . . . 9.2.6 Mt s kt lun thc nghim . . . . . . . . . . ng la M Vit Nam . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.3.1 Vi nt v ng la M Vit Nam . . . . . . 9.3.2 L thuyt, s liu v m hnh . . . . . . . . . . 9.3.3 Kt qu thc nghim . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.3.4 Hin tng la ha . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.3.5 V ngang gi sc mua tin t v cn bng di hn ca ni t Vit Nam . . . . . . . . . . . . Bt ng sn Vit Nam . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.4.1 Nhng quy nh php lut . . . . . . . . . . . 9.4.2 Ba cn st khuynh o th trng . . . . . . . 9.4.3 Giao dch bt ng sn Vit Nam . . . . . . 9.4.4 Nhng bt cp cn tn ti . . . . . . . . . . . . 9.4.5 Tim nng ca th trng bt ng sn . . . .
234 240 242 242 245 250 256 267 269 270 271 277 281 285 288 297 297 299 302 308 313 317 318 318 323 327 331 338 348 353 355 360
10 Th trng chng khon 10.1 Ton cnh th trng chng khon Vit Nam . . . . . 10.1.1 Ra i v pht trin . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.1.2 iu kin nim yt, cng ty nim yt, nh u t 10.1.3 K thut giao dch . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.1.4 Cng ty chng khon . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.1.5 Qu u t . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.1.6 S vn ng ca th trng chng khon v nh hng ti i sng kinh t - x hi . . . . . . . 10.2 Cc quy lut c pht hin . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.2.1 Hnh vi by n . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.2.2 V hin tng chia tch c phiu . . . . . . . .
Thng trm v t ph
xvii
10.2.3 Gi thuyt th trng hiu qu v hiu ng GARCH . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.3 Th trng tri phiu . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.3.1 Tri phiu doanh nghip . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.3.2 Tri phiu chnh ph . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.3.3 Mt s kt lun v th trng tri phiu . . . . 10.4 Khim khuyt trn th trng chng khon Vit Nam . 10.4.1 Quan h nh u t . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.4.2 Qun tr xung t li ch . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.4.3 Thng tin v truyn thng . . . . . . . . . . . 10.4.4 Tc ng t yu t nc ngoi trn th trng ti chnh . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
361 365 365 371 384 389 389 392 398 399
III
VN V HIN TNG
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
403
405 405 411 411 416 419 423 429 437 437 446 449 450 453 457
11 Mt s vn ca cc th trng ti sn 11.1 Ba loi tin trong nn kinh t Vit Nam . 11.2 Bong bng ti sn . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.2.1 Khi nim v c ch hnh thnh 11.2.2 Bong bng ti sn Vit Nam . 11.3 Tn cng tin t . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11.4 Tng trng v lm pht . . . . . . . . . 11.5 Dng vn nc ngoi . . . . . . . . . .
12 Qun l nh nc i vi cc th trng v ti sn 12.1 S cn thit iu tit ca Nh nc vo th trng t do 12.2 Kt ni v m - vi m v hiu qu ca chnh sch kinh t 12.3 Lin thng cc th trng . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12.3.1 Bt ng sn trong nn kinh t c s hin din ca th trng ti chnh . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12.3.2 Bt ng sn trong cc cuc khng hong ti chnh . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12.3.3 M hnh quan h gia cc th trng bt ng sn - vn - tin t . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
xviii
12.3.4 Vn trng yu v gi m hng chnh sch 12.4 Qun l h thng ngn hng . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12.4.1 Trong nhng nm 1990 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12.4.2 Khng hong ti chnh chu v nh hng n Vit Nam . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12.4.3 Hiu qu kinh doanh ca cc ngn hng . . . . 12.4.4 Cam kt i vi cc t chc a phng . . . . 12.5 Chnh sch tin t v ti kha . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12.6 m bo an ninh ti chnh quc gia . . . . . . . . . . . 12.7 Sc mnh ca th trng v s iu tit ca Nh nc . 12.7.1 Sc mnh ca th trng . . . . . . . . . . . . 12.7.2 Chnh ph u trong bc tranh? . . . . . . . 13 Vit Nam hi nhp ton cu 13.1 Bi hc t bin ng kinh t nm 2008 . . . . . 13.1.1 Nhn li khng hong ti chnh ton cu 13.1.2 n s kinh t chnh tr Hoa K . . . . . 13.1.3 m bo an ninh kinh t . . . . . . . . 13.2 iu hnh v m . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13.3 Xy dng kinh t hc Vit Nam . . . . . . . . . Ti liu tham kho Ph lc tra cu
465 471 471 472 473 476 477 487 498 498 501
507 . . . . 507 . . . . 508 . . . . 517 . . . . 520 . . . . 524 . . . . 533 539 550
Danh mc hnh nh
1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 2.1 2.2 2.3 3.1 3.2 3.3 4.1 5.1 5.2 5.3 6.1 6.2 6.3 Li sut ca FED thi k 1990-2008 . . . . . . . . . . . Gi du th th gii v xng Mogas 92 Vit Nam . . . Bin ng gi du nm 2003 (FOB) . . . . . . . . . . . Ch s gi tiu dng, vng v USD trong nm 2007-2008 Bin ng gi go 8 thng u nm 2008. n v: VND/kg Bin ng t gi t nm 2007 n thng 11/2008 . . . . Tng trng tn dng 8 thng u nm 2008 . . . . . . Tng trng tn dng giai on 2000 - 2008 . . . . . . Thi Bnh Hng Bo . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ng 5 bc ng Dng . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Bim ha: y - D n thu mi! . . . . . . . . . . . . Tin ng du lng Thi Bnh, Bc Liu . . . . . . . . T bc 500 ng ng Dng, pht hnh nm 1941 . . Mt s ng bc Vit Nam u tin . . . . . . . . . . . H thng ngn hng mt cp . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Quy phn phi vi thi k bao cp . . . . . . . . . . . Lm pht phi m giai on 1986-1992 . . . . . . . . . Quan h FDI v tng trng GDP . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 8 12 14 15 18 22 23 42 44 49 57 58 60 78 97 107 112
GDP bnh qun u ngi . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 123 Giai on tng trng thn k t khi tin hnh i Mi 124 Thm ht thng mi nm 2008 . . . . . . . . . . . . 135 xix
xx 7.1 8.1 8.2 8.3 8.4 8.5 8.6 8.7 8.8 9.1 9.2 9.3 9.4 9.5 9.6 9.7 9.8 9.9 9.10
Tem thc phm . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . H thng ngn hng hai cp Vit Nam, 2008 Tng trng ti sn ngn hng v GDP . . . . VNIBOR . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . So snh li sut cho vay thng mi . . . . . . So snh li sut cho vay thng mi . . . . . . Dch chuyn li sut trong thi k 1990-2002 So snh khong cch li sut . . . . . . . . . So snh khong cch li sut . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
144 180 206 215 219 219 222 223 224 262 266 282 283 286 287 290 293 295 306 334 348 350 352 357 359 361 366 374 376 376 377 378 381
Li sut vng theo ngy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Chnh lch gi mua v gi bn vng ti Vit Nam . . . T gi VND/USD theo thng thi k 1988-2004 . . . . Li sut USD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Bt n ca li sut USD theo ngy . . . . . . . . . . . T l tin gi ngoi t trn tng phng tin thanh ton Tc tng CPI ca Vit Nam: 1986-1992 . . . . . . . Phn phi bootstrapped . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Cng b t gi trn Thi bo Kinh t Si Gn . . . . . . Gi t bnh qun H Ni, 1994-2001 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
10.1 S cng ty chng khon qua cc nm . . . . . . . . 10.2 VN-Index t 28/7/2000 n 5/11/2008 . . . . . . . 10.3 Bin ng VN-Index, 2007-2008 . . . . . . . . . . 10.4 Cp ngn hng do l chng khon . . . . . . . . 10.5 Bong bng chng khon South Sea . . . . . . . . . 10.6 lch chun cho . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.7 CARREE vi s kin pht hnh c phiu thng . 10.8 Phng sai c iu kin ca li sut nm 2003 . . . 10.9 S ln pht hnh TPCP thi k 2002-2008 . . . . . 10.10 Cng tri nm 1987 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.11 Tn sut pht hnh TPCP, t 5/2000 n 5/2004 . . 10.12 Bin ng li sut TPCP (%) t 1/2000 n 1/2004 10.13 Bin ng khi lng TPCP giai on 2000-2004 . 10.14 Khi lng giao dch tri phiu BIDV . . . . . . .
Thng trm v t ph
xxi 381 388 408 416 426 428 431 434
10.15 Gi giao dch tri phiu BIDV . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.16 c lng quy m thanh ton TPCP . . . . . . . . . . 11.1 11.2 11.3 11.4 11.5 11.6 12.1 12.2 12.3 12.4 12.5 Tri phiu chnh ph... lm qu mng m ci . . Sp th trng chng khon nm 1929 . . . . . Gi tr xut, nhp khu hng ha thi k 1986-2008 Tng trng GDP thc t v lm pht: 1990-2008 . Dng FDI thi k 1988-2008 . . . . . . . . . . . . Kiu hi chuyn v Vit Nam . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Bin ng gi c phiu Tn To . . . . . . . . . . . . . 467 ng IS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 480 ng LM . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 481 M hnh IS - LM . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 482 Phn ng ca sn lng v li sut vi chnh sch ti kha 487 529
13.1 Thm ht ngn sch nh nc giai on 2002-2006 . .
xxii
Danh mc bng biu

1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.7 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5 Xut khu go Vit Nam 7 thng u nm 2008 . . . . Suy gim tng trng ton cu . . . . . . . . . . . . . nh ch ti chnh th gii sp v khng hong nm 2008 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Can thip ti chnh ca Chnh ph Hoa K . . . . . . . Gi tr sn lng khai thc m ng Dng: 1900-1945 Tr kim v lng tin lu hnh thi k 1910-1929 . . . Lng tin do Ngn hng ng Dng pht hnh . . . Xut khu go v ph phm go thi k 1890-1941 . . Xut, nhp hng ha ca min Bc giai on 1955-1958 Thng k i tin cc h cng thng H Ni . . . . C cu thu ngn sch nh nc thi k 1960-1975 . . . C cu chi ngn sch nh nc thi k 1955-1965 . . . Thu nhp quc dn v GDP giai on 1975-1982 . . . Phn b lao ng giai on 1976-1983 . . . . . . . . . Cn cn thng mi Vit Nam giai on 1976-1984 . . Tng trng kinh t v ci thin i sng . . . . . . . . So snh tc tng trng GDP ca mt s quc gia ASEAN v Trung Quc . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Thng k qu trnh c phn ha doanh nghip nh nc Thng k ICOR Vit Nam . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Vn FDI vo Vit Nam thi k 1988-2008 . . . . . . . xxiii 16 25 27 28 41 46 47 48 68 79 85 86 88 89 93 99 100 101 104 111
xxiv 6.1 6.2 7.1 7.2 8.1 8.2 8.3 8.4 8.5 8.6 8.7 8.8 8.9 8.10 8.11 8.12 8.13 8.14 8.15 8.16 8.17 9.1 9.2 9.3 9.4 9.5 9.6 9.7 9.8 9.9 9.10
Quy m ti sn v nhu cu vn doanh nghip nh v va 128 So snh c trng kinh t v m cc giai on bin ng 130 Thng k FPI ngn hng - chng khon . . . . . . . . Ch s chng khon ton cu . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 170 174
Ngn hng trung ng to ra tin . . . . . . . . . . . . 182 Bng cn i k ton ca Ngn hng Nh nc Vit Nam 188 S lng ngn hng theo hnh thc s hu . . . . . . . 193 Cu trc ngn hng qua cc mc thi gian . . . . . . . 194 Ngn hng thng mi c phn tng vn . . . . . . . . 196 Th phn ca cc ngn hng thng mi giai on 20002004 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 197 Vai tr ca ngn hng thng mi nh nc trong hot ng cho vay . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 200 Bm tin vo h thng SOCBs trong nm 2003 . . . 202 N tn ng ca ngn hng thng mi nh nc . . . 204 Chuyn i ngn hng thng mi c phn nng thn 207 Ngn hng thng mi c phn np n xin cp php 208 Thng k v n tn dng . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 210 T chc tn dng nc ngoi ti Vit Nam . . . . . . . 213 H s tng quan ma trn VNIBOR . . . . . . . . . . 216 Thng k li sut cho vay . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 220 Thng k li sut tin gi . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 221 H s tng quan li sut cho vay . . . . . . . . . . . . 221 T l tin gi VND/USD ti Vietcombank . . . . . . Mc li sut dng v lm pht giai on 1996-2000 Thng k iu chnh tin t nm 2008 . . . . . . . . Thng k bin ng t gi VND/USD . . . . . . . . Kho st la chn vi vng v USD nm 2004 . . . . Cu vng ca Vit Nam thi k 2005-2008 . . . . . . Gi vng bnh qun ngy Vit Nam: 1996-2003 . . Gi vng th gii thi k 1900-2007 . . . . . . . . . . Cu vng theo qu Vit Nam . . . . . . . . . . . . Cu vng Vit Nam v th gii . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 227 228 230 239 245 248 256 257 257 258
Thng trm v t ph
xxv . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 259 260 261 263 264 284 284 285 295 296 323 324 326 330 332 332 333 336 339 343 368 369 373 383
9.11 9.12 9.13 9.14 9.15 9.16 9.17 9.18 9.19 9.20
So snh li tc vng hng thng . . . . . . . . . . . Tng quan hai dy li sut theo thng . . . . . . . Li sut vng theo ngy ti Lun n v Vit Nam Quy i li sut vng t thng thnh nm . . . . . Tng quan hai dy li sut theo ngy . . . . . . . Ch tiu thng k m t li sut USD . . . . . . . . Li sut USD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . GARCH(1,1) ca li sut USD theo ngy . . . . . . So snh s d bo v thc t t gi . . . . . . . . . Phn tch sai lch t gi thc . . . . . . . . . . . .
10.1 5 c phiu c khi lng nim yt ln nht HaSTC nm 2008 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.2 iu kin nim yt chng khon ln u . . . . . . . . 10.3 S doanh nghip nim yt . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.4 Lch s iu chnh bin dao ng gi (HOSE) . . . 10.5 Bc gi so snh . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.6 10 cng ty chng khon c quy m vn iu l ln nht 10.7 Vn php nh vi cng ty chng khon . . . . . . . . 10.8 Doanh thu nm 2007 ca mt s cng ty chng khon 10.9 Qu u t thnh lp giai on 2002-2005 . . . . . . . 10.10 Thng k cng ty qun l qu, ti thng 3/2008 . . . . 10.11 Pht hnh tri phiu doanh nghip thi k 1992-2003 . 10.12 Pht hnh tri phiu ngn hng . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10.13 Pht hnh TPCP: t 1/2000 n 3/2004 . . . . . . . . 10.14 Pht hnh TPCP bng USD ti Vit Nam . . . . . . . .
11.1 Chc nng ca tin . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 406 11.2 Li sut huy ng vng (%) cng b ngy 7/11/2008 . . 409 11.3 Cn cn thanh ton ca Vit Nam, giai on 2004-2007 429 12.1 Can thip ca cc chnh ph i ph sng thn th k 12.2 Thng k t l n mua bt ng sn vi h gia nh . . 12.3 Tc ng ca cc nhn t lm dch chuyn ng IS v LM . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12.4 Xc lp mc y ca Vn-Index . . . . . . . . . . . . 440 468 486 492
xxvi
13.1 Cn cn tranh c Tng thng Hoa K nm 2008 . . . .
519
Li gii thiu
Bn tho ca cun sch khp li vo lc m li sut c bn v li sut huy ng - cho vay thng mi Vit Nam ang gim nhanh sau gn c mt nm 2008 cng thng. Thng tin ti chnh ca tp doanh nghip nim yt dn u trn th trng chng khon Vit Nam c hai u T quc ang h l cho bc tranh kinh t le li nh sng ng ra trong cn sng gi ti chnh ni ln t thng 10 nm 2007. Ti cui nm 2008, t l lm pht ca c nm gim xung cn 19,9% thay v 25% - 30% nh d bo hi thng 9.1 Nhng lo lng v mc gi c tng cao c thay bng quan ngi v kh nng suy gim v nh tr tng trng kinh t. Vi mc tng trng 6,18% cho nm 2008, nn kinh t Vit Nam vn c xem c mc tng trng n tng trong mt bi cnh ton cu m m. Nhng ngay thi im ny, cha ai dm ngh ti s chm dt cc rc ri ca chui vn kinh t vi m v v m an xen nhau... Cuc khng hong ti chnh Hoa K vo ngy 12/12/2008 chm dt s mnh ca 25 ngn hng thng mi Hoa K, ch trong mt nm, tnh t thng 10/2007. Bo t lan i khp ni, sang c Ty u, ng u, Nam M v chu . C l, khng mt ngc ngch no ca nn kinh t ton cu, ang c t trong cc n lc nht th ha cao ca WTO, WB, IMF cng nh nhiu t chc a phng quc t khc, li c th min nhim khi cn bnh tt huyt p ti chnh gh gm ny. Bn cnh nhng kh khn khin cho i sng ca hng t con ngi khp tri t b nh hng nghim trng, nhng l thuyt kinh t hc v phng php ng x quy m ln cho cc quc gia, khng phn bit giu - ngho, ln - b, cng ang b thch thc nghim trng. Nim tin
1
B K hoch v u t
xxvii
xxviii
vo cc h thng l thuyt c xy dng t nhiu thp k, v c bit pht trin ln tm c nh cao sau cuc i suy thoi 1929-1933, ang b xi mn. H thng kinh t hc y nh mt c th cng trng, b nhng cn bnh qui c lm cho suy sp. Nhng cn bnh sinh ra bi cc on qun vi rt ang lm xi mn sc chng ca nim tin. Khng th khng t hi, vy s pht trin trong hn 20 nm i Mi ca Vit Nam nm u trong lch s ca dn tc, ca nn kinh t ton cu ng i v ca s phn nhn loi. C l, khng mt ai, vi s tm huyt dnh cho dn tc Vit Nam, s trn tr v nhng n lc ca ngi Vit Nam, li khng thy c ni trun chuyn ca mt hnh trnh y thng trm, nhng bc t ph v c nhng bi hc su sc, khng ch dnh cho nhn thc lch s, m cn c c ngha hng ti gii php tng lai. Cun sch ny c vit ra vi tinh thn nh th: v Vit Nam, do Vit Nam v ca Vit Nam. phn nh thc t ca mt tin trnh di lu, cun sch c vit thnh ba phn c bn. Phn I l cc qu trnh vi nhng thay i c mt tch cc, c mt hn ch, tri di theo thi gian m k c v chng vn cn in su trong nhiu th h cng dn. Phn II, c nhng t ph c ch kin ng v c s thc p ca cc iu kin kinh t. Nhng t ph y c xem xt trong cun sch nh nhng phm tr trn vn, l nhng im nhn lm sng r cc hnh trnh thi gian m s ng s kin c th che khut bn cht t ph ca nhng s kin c tnh cht bc ngot, nh thay i cu trc, chuyn hng t duy, bt ph v m hnh. Phn III, cc vn kinh t vi m v v m thng khng ch xut hin mt ln, m lp i lp li, cc dng thc khc nhau, lc n lc hin. C nhng vn v bi hc m ch li ca vic nhn thc, s t ph v c cu v t duy kinh t khng b b hp trong mt khong khng gian v thi gian c th. cn l nhng quy lut ph qut, c xu hng lp li v bin th mi lc mt phc tp v bt ng hn. Ba phn ny tip cn nn kinh t nh mt chnh th sng trong khng gian v thi gian hp l, c tnh lgic v nhng nhn thc c li cho t duy kinh t lu di. Cn phi ni ngay rng trng tm c trnh by trong cun sch l h thng cc th trng v phng tin kim sot ti chnh tin t. L
Thng trm v t ph
xxix
do tht n gin l v: Cng c ti chnh tin t ngy nay tr thnh v kh ch lc cc th ch v chnh ph s dng chng li nhng k th kinh t, n mnh di nhng bin ng bt thng, c tnh tn ph v lm xi mn s bn vng ca nn tng kinh t. Mt phn quan trng khc l nn kinh t th trng c s kim sot ca Nh nc ngy cng r rt Vit Nam, trong cc th trng ti chnh c nh hng ngy mt mnh m. Ch th ca 538 trang sch l Vit Nam, vi trng tm nghin cu t vo h thng ti chnh - tn dng - tin t. Cc tc gi t t ra nhim v cung cp bc tranh ton cnh nn kinh t Vit Nam, vi mong mun c li trong c gi nhng suy ngh v hnh trnh tip tc chinh phc nn kinh t ton cu cng gic m nc Vit Nam thnh vng. c gi l cc nh qun l, nghin cu chnh sch, u t, gii phn tch, ngi quan tm kinh doanh, c nhu cu tm hiu kin thc kinh t - x hi tm thy cun sch ngun tra cu thun tin vi cc thut ng, vn , hin tng ni tri ca kinh t Vit Nam c lit k cng s trang tng ng trong phn Tra cu cui sch. Qu c gi c th gp li mt vi phn tch cc phn khc nhau ca cun sch do cc vn v hin tng c trng c tnh ph qut trong nn kinh t. Bong bng ti sn tn ti c vi th trng bt ng sn v th trng chng khon. Hin tng nhp siu tng xut hin trong thi k u xy dng ch ngha x hi min Bc, lp li giai on 1986-1988, c bn tip trong nhng nm 1994-1998, v li c trong chng trnh ngh s ca cc k hp Quc hi nm 2008. Hin tng by n th hin rt r rng qua hnh nh chen nhau mua vng vo lc gi ln, vay mn mua chng khon lc VN-Index nh, th ri, li x i t lnh bn khi ch s gi st gim. Cun sch c hon thnh vi s tr gip hiu qu ca i ng cng s, nhng ngi gp phn quan trng vo cng vic bin tp ti liu, vit cc phn ni dung chi tit, tp hp v x l s liu, trao i tng v minh ha. Cc tc gi chn thnh cm n Trn Tr Dng, Nguyn Chu H, Nguyn ng Quang v mt s ng nghip khc. Cun sch c bin son trong mt thi gian di, vi rt nhiu cng sc v tinh thn trch nhim cao nht. Tuy nhin, sai st l khng th trnh khi. Cc tc gi rt mong c c gi ng gp kin tip
xxx
tc hon thin cun sch. Cc tc gi cm n Nh xut bn Chnh tr quc gia phi hp bin tp v xut bn cun sch, gii thiu cun sch ti c gi c nc. V cui cng, cng l quan trng nht, cc tc gi gi li cm n chn thnh nht ti bn c. Trong qu trnh bin son, chng ti lun n lc cao nht p ng nhu cu tm hiu kinh t Vit Nam ca c gi. Sau mi phn mc ni dung, nu qu v ghi nhn thm mt vi thng tin hay kin phn tch th chnh l mc tiu ca cun sch c thc hin. H Ni, thng 4 nm 2009, Phm Minh Chnh Vng Qun Hong
Chng 1 Sng gi
Nhng ngy thu nng vng H Ni nm 2008, dng ngi xe tp np trn nhng con ng ca Th vi gung quay ngy mt nhanh hn ca c my kinh t vo cc nm cui thp k u tin ca th k XXI. Nhp sng hin i gp gp. Mt h thng kinh t hin i mau chng bao ph vng t ngn nm vn hin. Nhng mi bn tm vt xa khi bin gii lnh th. S tri st ca ch s DJIA, Nasdaq, FTSE 100 v Nikkei 225 bng tr nn gn gi quen thuc nh gi ca mt kilgam go hay chng trnh khuyn mi ca Honda Civic... Cun sch ny bt u t s kin cuc khng hong 2007-2008 khi ngun t bn kia b Thi Bnh Dng, nhng s lt li hnh trnh kinh t Vit Nam trong mt giai on di t nm 1884 vi im nhn l hn 20 nm i Mi. y l cch tip cn, m phi mt nhiu thng mi c nh hnh, mc d t liu v cc kt qu nghin cu thu gom qua hng chc nm.1 Cun sch mang theo ch kin rng nhng quan st tng th nn kinh t Vit Nam t trong bi cnh quc t ha mnh m i sng kinh t l cn thit. Hi nhp su rng vo nn kinh t ton cu vi y vai tr l thnh vin chnh thc th 150 ca T chc Thng mi Th gii (WTO) vo u nm 2007, em li mt v th mi, nng lng mi cho nn kinh t Vit Nam. Trong bc i y gian kh ny, d lun quan tm ti c
K t khi cc tc gi tham gia Hi tho Nhng vn kinh t - x hi ni ln v gii php khc phc do Vn phng Trung ng ng t chc u thng 3/2008.
1
nhng li ch ca tr chi kinh t ton cu ln nhng thch thc m qu trnh chuyn bin c bit ny t ra cho hnh trnh kinh t v s n nh quc gia. Thot u, cho ti thng 4 v 5/2007, cc nh kinh t v gii cng thng tp trung mi quan ngi vo tim nng bnh trng h thng phn phi ca cc tp on a quc gia, bn cnh kh nng b thu tm ca cc doanh nghip trong nc, m qu trnh chng khon ha vn cha kp nh gi li tng th gi tr tim tng ca n. Tuy nhin, t na cui thng 11/2007, ch s chng khon VN-Index thm mt ln na tt xung di ngng 1.000 im,2 v lm pht ngc u dy mc 12% vo thng cui nm ny. Ngi dn v Chnh ph Vit Nam bt u chm mt vi mt mi lo m h: Khng hong ti chnh. Khng hong y cho n ht nm 2008 tr thnh mi ha kinh hong e da hn 7 t con ngi trn hnh tinh xanh, mc d, ban u, n c gii thiu qua nhng con s thng k cha c va x hi v nhng ngi iu hnh cc Chnh ph. Cuc khng hong c khi ngun t Hoa K, di tn gi tn dng bt ng sn di chun. N nhanh chng lan rng ra khp cc th trng, tr thnh mt cuc khng hong th ch m bn cht kinh t chnh tr vi nhng xung t tn ti hng trm nm c c hi bc l tc ng khc lit ln cc x hi, nn kinh t ton cu. Vit Nam cng ng trc cc bi ton kinh t, m chc chn li gii khng nm nhng gii php ngn hn, hay li khuyn ca chuyn gia ny, t chc khc. p n nm vic c cu h thng kinh t - chnh tr lu di v bn vng cho Vit Nam, trong mi quan h vi nhng li ch ngn v di hn ca Vit Nam, v chc chn s c sinh ra trong ch kin ca nhng ngi Vit Nam... Cn nh, vo thng 3/2008, Ngn hng Bear Stearns danh ting sp . Gi c phiu ca ngn hng ny t 30 USD sau mt m ch cn 2 USD. i ngn hng ph Wall, JPMorgan, nhanh chng mua li Bear Stearns vi gi 240 triu USD km theo cam kt h tr 30 t USD ca Qu d tr Lin bang Hoa K (Ngn hng Trung ng Hoa K, FED). C th gii rung ng.
Ngy 18/11/2007: VN-Index t 998,22 im, bt u chui st gim ko di ti ht nm 2008.
2
Thng trm v t ph
C v nh s vic ti t hn nhiu so vi nhng con s bo khon l, ln lt lm nn nhng vt xu x ca cc bo co l - li (P&L) ca cc i cng ty ngn hng, ti chnh ph Wall v khp cc trung tm ln London, Paris, Frankfurt, Geneva... chnh l nhng chn ng u tin. Ging nh mi ln, ngi ta mong ch thi gian tri qua, cc hi ng qun tr lm vic ct lc, cc chnh sch iu chnh, v c nhng ng thi ca h thng c quan iu phi... s gip n nh. Nhng mi vic khng nh th. Danh sch cc tng i ti chnh Hoa K, nn kinh t s mt hnh tinh, gc ng trc cn cung phong n di chun c ngy mt di thm. Bng my u m nhanh chng lan ti cc trung tm ti chnh chu u v chu . Sau nhng ci tn Merrill Lynch, Lehman Brothers, Wachovia, Washington Mutual ca nc M, gii ti chnh quc t lin tip n nhn tin xu t khp ni. Ngy 29/9/2008, ngn hng chuyn cho vay bt ng sn Bradford & Bingley (B&B) ca Anh mt quyn kim sot v b xa tn trn th trng chng khon. Chnh ph H Lan, B, Luxembourg hp sc cu Fortis - ngn hng ln nht nc B khi n nn. Nhng n lc ln lao c thc hin gi ngn hng lin doanh Php - B Dexia dng li bn mp vc ph sn. Khon thua l nng n ca 6 ngn hng hng u ti x s mt tri mc khin Ngn hng Trung ng Nht Bn (BoJ) vo ngy 30/9/2008 phi tc tc dc 19,2 t USD cu nguy. Ti u thng 10/2008, cn bo khng hong cn cun phng c quc o Iceland vo tnh trng ph sn cp quc gia. Bn b Ty Thi Bnh Dng, Vit Nam tng bng vi ch s chng khon VN-Index quen thuc tng 200% t gia 2006 ti qu I/2007. Mc tng trng kinh t hai nm lin tip 2006 v 2007 t trn 8%/nm. u t v tiu dng tng cao cng mc k vng t ra cho nhng thnh tu kinh t trong nhng nm tip theo. S ho hng ca nn kinh t dng cao, b qua nhng li cnh bo v du hiu st gim ca th trng chng khon v mc lm pht chuyn t mt con s nm 2006 sang hai con s vo cui nm 2007. Ngi ta ch git mnh hi nhau chuyn g ang xy ra? khi ch s chng khon t mc nh 1.171 im ca ngy 12/3/2007 ri xung 395 im vo ngy 4/6/2008. y l ln u tin VN-Index di ngng
400 im t sau ngy 3/3/2006. qui m ton b nn kinh t, ch s gi tiu dng trong 6 thng u nm 2008 tng cao ti 20% so vi cng k nm 2007. Khong cch gia xut khu v nhp khu n ra ti mc ln nht sau hn hai thp k k t nm 1986. Thm vo , kh khn thanh khon buc h thng ngn hng thng mi y li sut ln cao, c thi im l trn 20%/nm, bp nght dng chy tn dng. Cng lc t gi hi oi lin tc bin ng vi chnh lch ln gia mc nim yt ti h thng ngn hng v giao dch trn th trng t do. T thng 4/2008, nhiu doanh nghip lm vo tnh cnh ph sn k thut. S t mn vi nhng thnh tu ngn ngi cha y 24 thng k t gia 2006 khng cn. Th ch vo l cc k hoch ct gim chi tiu, thu hp sn xut, gim nhn s, v tt c nhng g cn lm chun b ng u vi sng gi pha trc.
1.1
Sng gi ni ln
Ti u nm 2008, khng hong tn dng bt ng sn lan rng sang tt c cc nc, tc ng tiu cc c n th trng chng khon, tin t v hng ha. Lin minh ti chnh c hnh thnh chng khng hong tn dng ton cu. Nguy c u c hng ha - vt t hin hin ko theo gi c v lm pht tng cao trong iu kin tng trng thp. Nhng thay i v xo trn ton cu c th tip tc to ra s phn ha mnh m. Khi s thng thng v hi nhp kinh t ngy cng su sc, sng to cng gi ln trn i dng kinh t th gii khin con tu kinh t Vit Nam chao o. Di s lnh o ca ng, Chnh ph Vit Nam n lc n nh kinh t v m, m bo an sinh x hi trc cc bin c khch quan kh lng. y l nhng ni dung then cht cho s pht trin kinh t Vit Nam ni ln giai on u th k XXI, t ra nhiu vn cn gii quyt trong ngn hn v trung hn. Nh nhng n lc ny, bc sang thng 9/2008, kinh t Vit Nam bt u n nhn nhng chuyn bin tch cc v cc ch s kinh t v m. Biu hin r nht l t l lm pht gim t 3,91% vo thng 5 xung cn 0,18% trong thng 9. Th trng chng khon dn phc hi, tng 40% so vi thng 6. Tnh thanh khon ca h thng ngn hng c
Thng trm v t ph
ci thin, li sut huy ng v cho vay tip tc xu hng gim t cui thng 7. T gi VND/USD dn n nh, khng cn s chnh lch ng k gia t gi trn th trng lin ngn hng vi th trng t do. Thm ht thng mi gim r rt. Nhp siu qu III/2008 bnh qun cn 1 t USD/thng so vi mc 2,7 t USD/thng ca 5 thng u nm. c bit, nim tin ca nhn dn c n nh. Tuy nhin, din bin kinh t th gii cng lin tc thay i. Va lc kinh t trong nc phc hi th li phi n nhn nhng tc ng tiu cc t bn ngoi. Thng 9/2008, cuc khng hong ti chnh li bng pht M vi mc trm trng hn, nhanh chng ly lan t lnh vc ti chnh sang cc lnh vc kinh t khc, khng ring trong phm vi kinh t M m nh hng rng khp ton cu. Tnh hnh kinh t Vit Nam tr nn kh khn hn. Cho ti thng 12/2008, ch s gi ca th trng chng khon Vit Nam xung mc rt thp. VN-Index di 300 im v HaSTC-Index li v ngay st vch xut pht 100 im. Mc tng trng tn dng ca nm 2008 cng c c tnh dng 24%. Khng hong tn dng ton cu c gii chuyn gia kinh t nhn nh s tc ng mnh m hn ti nn kinh t Vit Nam trong nm 2009. Vn gim pht v gii php kch cu v rng hn l kch thch kinh t cng bt u c bn lun. D li sut ngn hng gim xung quanh 12%/nm, cc doanh nghip vn i mt vi cc kh khn v ti chnh v th trng thu hp. Bin ng kinh t nm 2008 ghi nhn nhng khc bit c trng v bn cht, qui m tc ng, nguyn nhn hnh thnh, v c liu php x l so vi hai giai on xo trn kinh t 1991-1992 v 1997-1998 (Chnh et.al.: 2008, [85]). Vit Nam v ang thc s hi nhp su sc vo i sng kinh t th gii. Vn ng ca cc th trng hng ha v ti chnh quc t nhanh chng tc ng trc tip ti cc th trng trong nc.
1.1.1
Khng hong tn dng Hoa K 2007-2008
Thng 8/2007, th trng tn dng bt ng sn Hoa K xy ra bin c, kinh t th gii lp tc ghi nhn nhng du hiu bt n. Nguyn nhn su xa ca thc trng ny bt ngun t: (i) chnh sch ni lng tin t
m FED thc thi t u nhng nm 2000 (FED gi li sut di 2% trong thi gian t 11/12/2001 n 10/11/2004, Hnh 1.1); (ii) gii chnh tr gia ng h m rng tn dng dnh cho tng lp c thu nhp t trung bnh thp tr xung; v (iii) trong iu kin li sut thp, cc cng ty ti chnh c thnh lp nh mt gii php iu ha dng chy tn dng, v thu li nhun chnh lch li sut, ng thi, trnh cc qui nh kim sot tn dng cht ch vi h thng ngn hng. H qu l cc tiu chun cho vay c h thp, dn n th trng tn dng bt ng sn pht trin qu nng. Bi vy, khi FED tng li sut ln 4% vo u thng 11/2005 v duy tr li sut trn mc ny ti ht nm 2007, nhiu ngi vay tin mua bt ng sn ri vo tnh trng mt kh nng thanh ton.
Hnh 1.1: Li sut ca FED thi k 1990-2008 Theo mt dy chuyn, thc t ny y nhiu ngn hng v nh ch ti chnh ti cnh thua l nng n, i din vi nguy c ph sn cao, thm ch, phi tuyn b ph sn hoc b thu tm. Trong na u nm 2008, Chnh ph Hoa K v FED p dng mt lot cc can thip th trng khin gii phn tch lc nhn nh rng p lc ca cuc khng hong ang gin dn. Trn thc t, tnh trng kh khn ca Hoa K ni ring v ca c th gii ni chung vn ko di t cho ti ht
Thng trm v t ph
nm 2008 v hu qu nh hng nng hn tip tc xuyn qua 2009. Vo lc kh khn kinh t ton cu tr nn trm trng hn, c ti trn 40 quc gia lm vo suy thoi hoc ng trn b vc suy thoi trong nm 2008. c bao bc trong nhiu lp cng c phi sinh ti chnh, ri ro ca cc khon tn dng bt ng sn c tnh lan truyn rt cao dn n th trng tn dng Hoa K lun trong tnh trng co rt v th trng chng khon tri st trong s hong lon ca cc nh u t. Qu trnh sp lan truyn rt kh d bo y qui m v tnh phc tp. V gnh nng ny cn tip din trong nhiu thng tip theo vi nhng bin i kh lng. y cng l du hiu cnh bo ri ro tn dng xut pht t quan h lin thng cc th trng chng khon - tin t - bt ng sn ang biu hin ngy mt r hn ti Vit Nam (Hong v Sn: 2008, [113]).
1.1.2
u c quc t tng mnh
Hn lon trn cc th trng l c hi tt hn bao gi ht cc nh u c quc t trc li. Nhng ngn hng v tp on a quc gia vi ti sn hng nghn t USD thao tng th trng giao dch hng ha thit yu v u vo sn xut quan trng. Ln lt du th, lng thc, vng... tr thnh i tng tp trung u c cao. Tip theo, tin t cc quc gia v cc ti sn ti chnh c b sung vo thc n ca c mp. Din bin phc tp ca gi du m Nhng mu thun a - chnh tr mt s khu vc nhy cm du m trn th gii cng vi tnh trng u c khin gi du th tng mnh trong sut 6 thng u nm 2008, ln mc nh cao lch s 147 USD/thng vo ngy 11/7/2008. Trc , du th, vo cui nm 2007, ln u c giao dch vi gi 100 USD/thng.3 Tuy vy, n lc tch tr du khng h gim trc nhng lo ngi xung t qun s ti Trung ng v khu vc Caspia. Gi du tip tc tng cao trong u nm 2008, t cc nn kinh t ton cu trong tnh trng bo ng khng hong nng lng.
3
Thng (barrel): n v o lng quc t, tng ng 150 lt.
Hnh 1.2: Gi du th th gii v xng Mogas 92 Vit Nam

Ngun: Dan Houtte, Vuong & Partners
Gi du tng phn nhiu do yu t tm l trc bt trc kinh t. Trong hai thng 7 v 8/2008, gi du lin tc gim v cn c gii phn tch nh gi c th xung ti mc 80 USD/thng cho d ngy 10/9/2008, T chc cc nc xut khu du m (OPEC) thng bo s ct gim sn lng du 520.000 thng/ngy k t na cui thng 10 nm 2008. Mc ct gim ny c coi l thp so vi mc st gim v cu trn th gii, c khong 2 triu thng/ngy. Ti gia thng 11/2008, gi du th xoay quanh mc 50 USD/thng. Gi xng trong nc sau ln tng gi k lc ngy 21/7/2008 gim dn t mc 19.000 ng/lt (Mogas 92) xung 13.000 ng/lt vo ngy 15/11/2008 v cn 11.000 ng/lt k t sau ngy 10/12/2008. Bng ma suy thoi cc u tu kinh t th gii tip tc lm gi du mt i 75% khi xung ti mc 35 USD/thng ngy 18/12/2008. y cng l mc thp k lc ca gi du th trong vng 4 nm. Xng du l vt t thit yu ca sn xut v l hng ha quan trng trong i sng. Chnh ph Vit Nam t lu vn duy tr s iu tit cht ch xng du qua thu, truyn thng v gi. Trong thi k bin ng, gi xng trong nc c iu chnh tng ng vi dao ng trn th trng quc t (hnh 1.2).
Thng trm v t ph
Du m ca ai? T sau khng hong du m gia th k XX, th gii bt u cho rng cn loi b bn tay ca cc tp on du m xuyn quc gia, vi gi thit rng mt khi c th vt qua cc th lc ti phit du m lng on ny bt tay vi nhng cng ty du m nh hn nhng c lp, th gii s c c ngun cung du m khch quan, ty chay ngun du m n t cc ging du rp. S thc khng phi vy. Trong cun sch Whatever happened to America?, Jon Chritian Ryter (2001: [92]) dn c gi ti mt cu chuyn hon ton khc. Khi John D. Rockefeller lp nn hng du la Standard Oil nm 1870, ng thc thi nguyn tc: kim sot cu cn nm gi cung. Mt khi cng ty nm quyn khng ch ngun cung, n s c th, v chc chn s thc hin hnh vi thao tng, lng on nhu cu tiu dng. chnh xc l nhng g Rockefeller lm. Ngay t nhng ngy u ti Pennsylvania, Rockefeller c kinh nghim t gi khi chng kin nhng khon thua l nng n do cc ging du khai thc qu nhiu khin gi du th gim mnh. S tht tng t cng xy n vi cc cng ty lc du. Vi sn lng qu nhiu du th v lc lng qu ng cc cng ty lc du, chi ph sn xut du la vt c mc gi mt nh bn bun du la nh Rockefeller c th mua c trn th trng. kim sot dng du th chuyn ti c s lc du, Standard Oil trc tin tn cng h thng phn phi du th, cung cp u vo ca cc cng ty lc du, ln lt lm ph sn tng ging du. Kt cc tng t cng xy ra vi cc cng ty lc du. Tng bc chm ri, Standard Oil gim gi du la trn th trng cho ti khi cc cng ty lc du lm vo tnh trng v n. Lc ny, Standard Oil s ng ra mua li v thu chnh nhng ngi ch c s lc du, ging du, tip tc vn hnh sn xut. n nm 1875, Standard Oil kim sot 85% sn lng du la c sn xut ra trn ton th gii bi mt l do n gin, Rockefeller s hu cc ging du cung cp 85% sn lng du th ton cu. Bn cht khc lit ca qu trnh ny tr thnh th trng M&A rng ln, c ngy trang bng nhiu m t quen thuc trn bo ch ngy nay. Khi ging du u tin c pht hin thnh ph Baku trn b bin Caspia ca nc Nga vo nm 1873, Robert Nobel ca dng h Thy
10
S chuyn sn xut thuc sng ang c mt ti thu mua nguyn liu ch to thuc sng, phc v n t hng ca Chnh ph Nga vi ngi anh em Alfred Nobel. Nhn thy c hi ln, Robert b ngay nh thu mua nguyn liu ch to thuc sng. Thay vo , mt c s lc du c khn trng xy dng ti Baku. Ti nm 1879, nh Nobel gn b cht ch vi kinh doanh du m c ngun thu li vt xa phn sn xut v bun bn thuc n, v kh. Cng nm ny, Nobel Brothers Petroleum Producing Company c thnh lp. C s h tng phc v kinh doanh du m nhanh chng c pht trin. Cng ty xy dng ng ng dn du di 8 dm ni ging du Baku vi Zoroaster, b cha du u tin trn th gii. Trong vng 5 nm, h thng ng st cng c hon thin m bo vn chuyn nhanh chng du m ti cc kho cha. Khi lng cng vic s ny hn nhin cn ngun ti chnh rt ln. V ngi cung cp vn cho nh Nobel khng ai khc ngoi Nam tc Alphonse de Rothschild ca i gia tc ti phit nh hng ln nht ton cu 2 th k nay. Quan h kinh doanh gn b gia Nobel v Rothschild c Daniel Yergin khng nh trong cun sch c tn gi hp dn Du m, tin bc v quyn lc (2008:[124], trang 97). Cng ging nh phn ng chng ta, Yergin tuyt i tin tng vo cuc chin cnh tranh khc lit gia lin minh Rothschild-Nobel vi i th Standard Oil ca nh Rockefeller. Tht khng may, y l cch hiu sai bn cht. Theo Jon Chritian Ryter, nh lin minh vi nh Rothschild, cng ty ca anh em Nobel nh bi Rockefeller trn chin trng Nga tht bi duy nht trong lch s thng mi du m ca Standard Oil. Nguyn nhn l v Standard Oil khng sn sng chun b cho mt trn quyt t nh vn thng tin hnh mi khi gp i th cnh tranh. Chnh xc hn, vic Rockefeller nhng li vng du m Baku cho anh em Nobel l mt cuc sp t. John D. Rockefeller, ngi sng lp ch du m ti Cleveland, hp tc cht ch vi gia tc Rothschild t nm 1875 di s dn xp ca Jacob Schiff - mt chuyn gia ti chnh c nh Rothschild tin dng. Nc Nga v du m T nm 1995, c cu hi c t ra, v mi ti tn by gi vn cha tm c cu tr li thu o, V sao ngay sau khi Lin bang Xvit
Thng trm v t ph
11
tan r, lp tc xut hin mt lc lng ti phit rt mnh, mua li gn nh ton b cc nh my v c s khai thc ti nguyn gi tr (du m, kim loi qu, khong sn)?. s hu nhng ti sn ny, cho d c mua mc gi r cng cn ti hng chc, v hng trm triu USD. Bng cch no c th huy ng v iu chuyn mt lng tin ln nh vy? Quan st trn th trng th gii cng khng ghi nhn bin ng bt thng v gi c nhng ti nguyn trn. iu ny gy ngc nhin bi nh chng ta thng quan st thy ngy nay, mi khi c mt bin ng a chnh tr, kiu nh chin s Irc hay vn ht nhn Iran, th gi hng ha c tnh u c cao nh du m hay vng thng c nhiu dao ng. Cu tr li mang tnh hp l nhiu hn c l: H thng t bn ngn hng quc t nm gi ngun cung du m th gii (bao gm c Xvit v nc Nga ngy nay). Chnh lc lng ny iu ng ti chnh hp thc ha vic s hu cc c s nm gi ti nguyn quan trng khi c s chuyn i t th ch Xvit sang nc Nga. Cuc chin Gruzia - Nga vo gia nm 2008 li c mt tc ng khc ti gi du m th gii. Tri vi d on ca gii quan st, gi du gim sau khi chin s n ra. V sao vy? C th t ra mt gi thit rng, ngi Nga c mong mun ly li quyn s hu cc ngun ti nguyn, c bit l du m. Hnh ng c cho l mnh tay nht ca Chnh ph Nga l s dng lc lng c nhim bt gi t ph, ng ch tp on du m Yukos, Mikhail Khodorkovsky vo thng 10/2003. ng ny sau nhn n t 9 nm. Yukos b chia nh v bn li cho nhiu hng kinh doanh khc nhau. Gi du m ti Nga v trn th gii ngay lp tc c phn ng tng gi vi mc chnh lch gi bin ng t 19% n 23% trong thi gian t thng 9 n thng 11/2003 (hnh 1.3). Nhng din bin vo nm 2008 th ngc li. Sau khi tng ti gn 150 USD/thng vo u nm, ti thng 8 nm 2008, gi du th gii gim xung xp x 110 USD/thng. V cn tip tc gim mnh ti tn 35 USD/thng vo cui nm. Nguyn nhn ca hai phn ng tri ngc ny c th l vo nm 2003, s hu du m ca ti phit ngn hng quc t b chuyn thnh s hu ca Nga. Do vy, lng cung m lc lng ny kim sot b gim xung v y gi ln. Ti nm 2008, khng c s thay i v lng cung, v to p lc vi Nga trong cc cuc thng lng, t bn ngn
12
hng quc t ch ng gim gi du, khin Nga mt i mt qun bi chin lc.
Hnh 1.3: Bin ng gi du nm 2003 (FOB)

Ngun: Energy Information Administration (Hoa K)
Quyn lc kim sot ngun cung du m theo thi gian khng h gim i m tri li ngy cng c cng c v m rng. Ngy 2/10/2008, nht bo Kommersant cho bit, tp on du kh a quc gia Royal Dutch Shell (mt thnh vin ca nhm Seven Sisters) ang tin hnh m phn mua li t nht 50% c phn ca cng ty Nga Taas-Yuriakh hin ang nm quyn iu hnh m du Sredni-Botuobinskoye c tr lng c ti 98 triu tn, Yakutia, min ng Xibri. Tuy nhin, thng v ny phi c Chnh ph Nga ph chun. Shell hin ang nm gi 27,5% c phn ca d n khng l Sakhalin 2 v 50% c phn Cng ty Pht trin du kh Salym ca Nga. Taas-Yuriakh khai thc 20.500 tn du th nm 2007 ti m trn, d kin nng sn lng ln 1,5 triu tn nm 2011, v t mc ti a 6 triu tn vo nm 2015. Taas-Yuriakh c s gp vn ca Urals Energy (35,33% c phn), cng ty u t Ashmore Investment Management ca Anh (10,5%), Yakut Energy t ti Cng ho Sp (37,37%) v Finfund (16,8%). Seven Sisters (tm dch, By ch em) gm cc tp on c quyn du m ton cu, cng nhau phn chia th phn, lnh a v t ra gi
Thng trm v t ph
13
du m. By ch em gm c: cc cng ty ca M (1) Esso (Standard of N.J.), (2) Mobil (Standard of N.Y.), (3) Gulf Oil, (4) Texaco, (5) Chevron (Standard of Calif.), cng hai cng ty ca Anh (6) Royal Dutch Shell v (7) Anglo-Persian Oil Company (sau ny i tn thnh British Petroleum). B ngoi, y l by cng ty ring bit, thm ch c lc cnh tranh vi nhau, nhng k thc u nm di s cai qun ca nh Rockefeller (nhm cng ty M) v Rothschild (nhm cng ty Anh). Nm 1911, do Standard Oil ca nh Rockefeller thu tm gn nh ton b ngun cung du m ca th gii, Ta n Ti cao Hoa K, theo o lut chng c quyn, gii th cng ty ny thnh vi chc cng ty nh, trong c c nhng ci tn Chevron, Mobil, Exxon (tn gi c l Esso). Gi vng bin ng bt thng Vng l hng ha c bit, t thn rt c gi tr. Vng c s dng nh mt loi tin t quc t, v tng c s dng nh ti sn m bo gi tr ca tin t.4 Bi vy, cc khon u t vo vng c a thch trong giai on bin ng kinh t nhm tm kim m bo v gi tr. Vo lc kinh t c nhiu bin ng, gi vng dao ng mnh. Vng tng gi ln rt cao, 1.007,1 USD/ounce (ngy 14/3/2008) v li gim xung mc rt thp, 696 USD/ounce vo ngy 1/11/2008. Mi khi xut hin du hiu phc hi trn th trng ti chnh, tn dng v tin t, hot ng u c vo vng trn th gii li km phn nhn nhp. Vit Nam, vng va l ti sn tit kim c a thch, va l phng tin thanh ton ph bin trong cc giao dch mua bn bt ng sn v lm trang sc. Thi quen ny n su vo li sng ngi dn. Vit Nam bt u cho php nhp khu vng vo u nhng nm 1990 di dng cp quota cho cc n v nhp khu. Nm 2008, Ngn hng Nh nc ch cp hn ngch cho nhp khu 73,5 tn vng. Tuy nhin, trong bi cnh kinh t v m c mt s du hiu xu i, c bit l lm pht cao v t gi VND/USD tht thng, vng tr thnh phng tin bo lu vn v ti sn c nhiu nh u t la chn. Ch trong 4 thng u nm 2008, lng vng nhp khu ln ti 43 tn, a Vit Nam tr thnh nc nhp khu vng khi ln nht th gii trong khong thi
4
Xem phn kin gii v vai tr v ngha ca vng trang 242
14
Hnh 1.4: Ch s gi tiu dng, vng v USD trong nm 2007-2008

Ngun: Tng cc Thng k. K gc: 2005 bng 100%
gian ny, vt c Trung Quc v n . iu ng ni l giao dch vng c tin hnh d dng vi mc bin ng gi rt kh kim sot. Trong lc nhiu hng ha chu s kim sot cht ch v gi c nh chng khon (qua bin dao ng gi c phiu), tin t (qua li sut, c ch li sut c bn v bin dao ng), xng du (quy nh gi bn)... th gi vng trn th trng gn nh c th ni. Phng thc vn hnh c tnh t do cao ca th trng ny n cha nhiu ri ro vi nhng ngi tham gia kinh doanh vng. Trong khong thi ngn, gi vng c th iu chnh rt ln, ti vi triu ng mi lng (xem hnh 1.4). Gi lng thc lm nhiu quc gia lao ao Nn u c cng khin gi lng thc tng nhanh trong khong thi gian ngn. So vi thng 1/2008, gi go thng 4/2008 tng hn gp i, t 400 USD ln 900 USD/tn. Cui thng 4/2008, gi go ln cao nht 1.100 USD/tn. Trc bin ng gi c, cc nc xut khu go ch cht (trong c n , Trung Quc, Vit Nam) c thi d dt v tm gim ngun cung quan st. Trong khi , cc quc gia nhp khu n lc tch ly lng thc duy tr n nh gi c v m bo an ninh lng thc. Thc t ny dn ti hai hiu ng ng thi: (i) gi
Thng trm v t ph
15
lng thc tip tc b y ln rt cao; v, (ii) n lc bm thm tin mua lng thc ca cc Chnh ph khin tnh hnh lm pht cng thm trm trng. Cng vi s gia tng t nhin v nhu cu lng thc khi dn s th gii tng, hin tng u c gp sc y gi lng thc tng rt mnh trong nhng thng u nm 2008. Chnh ph mt s quc gia cng a ra cc gii php tm thi hn ch xut khu lng thc. iu ny lm tng thm vn khng hong lng thc trn phm vi ton cu. Ngoi ra, th gii cn chng kin vic sn xut nhin liu sinh hc m rng nhanh chng ti cc quc gia cng nghip ha. y l nguyn nhn trc tip khin khong 20% sn lng ng cc nhiu nc pht trin khng cn phc v cho nhu cu lng thc.
Hnh 1.5: Bin ng gi go 8 thng u nm 2008. n v: VND/kg

Ngun: Trung tm Thng tin Vin Chin lc v Chnh sch Pht trin nng nghip, nng thn
Thng tin khng y v xu hng th trng go th gii dn ti u c lng thc tng mnh ti Vit Nam k t cui thng 4/2008 (hnh 1.5). Chnh ph, mt mt truyn thng lin tc v tch cc lm r bn cht vn ng ca th trng quc t; mt khc, ch o quyt lit hng ti bnh n gi lng thc v trn an tm l. Nh vy, gi go trong nc tr li n nh t gia thng 5 v sang thng 6/2008, xut
16
khu go phc hi. Thm ch, trong thng 6 v 7, gi go xut khu ca Vit Nam cn vt mc gi bnh qun th gii ln lt l 125% v 137% (xem bng 1.1). Bng 1.1: Xut khu go Vit Nam 7 thng u nm 2008
Thng Gi tr Vit Nam Th gii VN/TG (triu USD) (USD/tn) (IRRI) % (ii) (iii) (iv) (v) 51,0 389 376 103,5 139,1 424 465 91,2 255,0 457 594 76,9 371,2 565 907 62,3 444,1 793 941 84,3 211,1 1.005 805 124,8 339,9 971 706 137,5 Ngun: Trung tm Thng tin Vin Chin lc v Chnh sch Pht trin nng nghip, nng thn (iii) = (ii)/(i); (v)=(iv)/(iii) Qui m (1000 tn) (i) 131 328 558 657 560 210 350
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Nghi vn chin tranh tin t Lo ngi v kh nng hot ng u c chuyn sang lnh vc tin t v ti sn ti chnh cng ngy mt tng ln. Cui nm 2007, cun sch Chin tranh tin t (Tng Hng Bnh, 2008: [12]), pht hnh hng triu bn, dy ln nhiu lo lng vi gi thuyt tn ti quyn lc ti chnh quc t ang iu khin nn kinh t ton cu, c trong tay ngun lc khng l v dng mi th on trc li cho nhm c nhn. D cha tp hp bng chng khoa hc xc thc phn on ny, nhng gi thit ny gip gii thch hp l nhiu bin c kinh t, x hi trn th gii. Ngi Trung Quc c thi cn trng hn trc nhng bin ng ti chnh ton cu, bi vi t cch mt nn kinh t c tc tng trng nhanh, trong thi gian di, Trung Quc s l ming mi hp dn c mp ti phit u c quc t. Cng vi vic gi vng lin tc o chiu, t gi gia ng Vit Nam v USD M cng c giai on chao o bt u t thng 4/2008. Chnh sch kim sot cht ch giao dch ngoi hi c h tr truyn thng tch cc xa b tm l u c ngoi t vo cui thng 6/2008. Th
Thng trm v t ph
17
trng ch tn hiu gim USD ha v nhanh chng co hp khong cch ca h thng t gi kp vn tn ti lu i Vit Nam. T thng 4 n thng 6/2008, t gi trn th trng t do lun cao hn kh nhiu so vi t gi nim yt ti cc ngn hng thng mi. K t u thng 7, xut hin xu hng hi t hai t gi ny (xem hnh 1.6). vnh ng k gia t gi chnh thc trong khu vc ngn hng thng mi v t gi t do trn th trng xut hin khng ch mt ln. Ngy 18/4/2009, ti cc im thu i ngoi t trn ph H Trung (H Ni),5 1 USD c bn vi gi 18.160 VND. Trong khi , t gi lin ngn hng c cng b l 16.941 VND i 1 USD. Nh vy, ti cng thi im, gi bn USD cao nht m mt ngn hng thng mi c th p dng l 17.788 VND. Khong chnh lch gia hai t gi chnh thc v t do l 372 VND cho mi USD. Vic ch ng iu chnh bin giao dch t gi khng ch USD (kim sot hn hp) c tc dng kp. Th nht, tin ng Vit Nam c hiu chnh xung mc c li cho xut khu v u t, hn ch mt phn nhp siu, gim cng thng can thip cho d tr quc gia v s mt cn bng p lc tin do lm pht ly tch. Th hai, y l mt tc ng quan trng, thu hp khong cch ca h thng t gi kp do tn ti song song h thng chnh thc v t do, trong bi cnh lng tin gi ngn hng trong nn kinh t theo thng k t ngng USD ha, mc xp x 30%. Bin dao ng trn th trng ngoi hi lin ngn hng c ni ra 3% k t ngy 7/11/2008.
1.1.3
Th trng chng khon quc t bin ng kh lng
Cng ng u t chng khon ton cu v ang ht sc cn trng. K t u nm 2008, cc kt cc bt ng ca khng hong a c v tn dng th chp ti Hoa K nhiu ln y th trng chng khon vo cnh ti t, ri phc hi, v li sp ... Khng hong trn ca cc th trng ti chnh, tn dng, ngn hng c lin quan mt thit ti chnh trng Hoa K ang bc vo giai on
Con ph tp trung cc im thu i ngoi t c quy m ln nht ti H Ni, c xem nh mt th trng giao dch ngoi t t do.
5
18
Hnh 1.6: Bin ng t gi t nm 2007 n thng 11/2008

Ngun: Dan Houtte, Vuong & Partners
tranh c quyt lit gia hai ng Dn ch v Cng ha. Kt cc ca bu c M s lm r cn cn gia hai lc lng chnh tr thay phin nhau nm quyn iu hnh Hoa K. ng Dn ch c cc th lc ti chnh v u c ph Wall hu thun. ng Cng ha c hu thun bi ti phit du m, v kh v hc thuyt chng khng b - quyn nh ph u. Vi tun trc bu c, cc th trng chng khon Hoa K lun trong tnh trng mt phng hng. iu ny tc ng mnh n tm l ngi dn. V trong cc cuc thm d c tri trc bu c, s ngi ng h ng c vin ca ng Cng ha McCain gim nhanh chng. Tuy vy, sau thng li ca ng c vin ca ng Dn ch Barack Obama, h thng ti chnh Hoa K vn cha th i vo n nh. Thay i, c chng, l s dch chuyn tm im ch t bin ng tri st ca th trng chng khon sang tnh trng suy thoi ca nn kinh t s mt hnh tinh cng nguy c lan rng ton cu. V th knh huy ng vn quan trng trong nn kinh t ca th trng chng khon Vit Nam c khng nh vi quy m th trng t 40% GDP nh im vo cui nm 2007. Tuy vy, tnh thanh khon tri st, cng vi tc ng mnh ca hiu ng by n quy m rng
Thng trm v t ph
19
khp, khin th trng chng khon Vit Nam mt i gn 50% gi tr vn ha (mt s nhm c phiu ln ti 70-80%) k t thng 3/2007. Bin ng ny to ra tn tht ti chnh v suy gim nim tin trn th trng. Ch s chng khon ti thnh ph H Ch Minh trong thng 12/2008 c lc di mc 300 im. Ngy 10/12/2008, VN-Index c gi tr 286,9 im. Cng ngy, HaSTC-Index, ch s gi ca th trng chng khon H Ni, st vch xut pht vi gi tr 100,3 im. Chn ng ti chnh lan ta nhanh chng trn phm vi ton cu. Ba ngy sau khi Lehman Brothers n ph sn, ti ngy 18/9/2008, th trng chng khon Nga buc phi tm ng ca do mc gim gi qu nhiu. Kt cc ca khng hong ti chnh ton cu vn cha th xc nh u l hi kt.
1.1.4
Lm pht bng n khp ni
T u nm 2008, lm pht hu ht cc nc trn th gii u tng. Qu Tin t Quc t (IMF) a ra t l lm pht nm 2008 cc nc pht trin vo khong 6%, v ti cc quc gia ang pht trin l 9,4%. Tm l ngi dn chu tc ng tiu cc t nhng din bin ca cuc khng hong ti chnh v hot ng u c quc t tng mnh, y gi nhiu mt hng thiu yu v chin lc ln cao. Trng hp Zimbabwe l in hnh lm pht cao. Lm pht tng vt ln 24.470% vo thng 11/2007. Gi thc phm v cc loi ung khng cn tng 79.412%, trong khi hng ho phi thc phm tng 58.492% trong thng 12/2007. Bo ch a phng phn nh, mi sng thc dy, ngi dn Zimbabwe lun b sc v gi cc mt hng thit yu u tng trn 1.000%. Ngy 13/2/2008, gi 1 bnh m tng t 2,5 triu la Zimbabwe ln 6 triu la Zimbabwe; gi 1 gi ng 2 kg tng t 700.000 la Zimbabwe vt ln 9 triu la Zimbabwe; ti bt ng 10 kg tng ln 14 triu la Zimbabwe so vi 3,5 triu la Zimbabwe trc ... Theo thng k ca chnh Zimbabwe, lm pht tng ln 219,8 triu phn trm vo thng 10/2008. Gii php ng ph vi lm pht c nhiu t chc quc t khuyn co cc chnh ph thc thi trit l ct gim chi tiu cng, ci thin hiu sut u t, tht cht tin t v tn dng bng nng cao li sut...
20
y l nhng liu php ph hp vi l thuyt kinh t nhng vic p dng lun to ra cc hiu ng ph tiu cc, nn cn nhc thu o v thi im vn dng v liu lng ng mc. Vn hnh nn kinh t khng ch c cc bin s kinh t v m nh u t, tit kim, xut nhp khu... m cn phi ha hp c tc ng ca cc yu t hnh vi c nhn nh tinh thn on kt dn tc, truyn thng m bc v chia s kh khn, cc quyt nh la chn p ng nhu cu bn thn theo hc thuyt Maslow, li ch u t - thng mi v.v.. Mc tiu cui cng ca mi nh nc l n nh i sng kinh t x hi - chnh tr. Lm pht l mt cn tr ln trn con ng i ti mc tiu ny. V v th, vic chp nhn bt n v i sng dn c kh khn nh i ly lm pht thp trn thc t y cc quyt sch iu hnh kinh t v m i xa khi mc tiu (Graeme Donald Snooks, 2008:[100]). iu ny l mu thun in hnh ca kinh t hc hin i. Lm pht ti Vit Nam tng mnh trong 9 thng u nm 2008. Ti thng 8/2008, CPI so vi k gc 2005 l 148,21%. Ch s gi 8 thng u nm so vi cng k 2007 tng 22,14%. Nhiu chuyn gia kinh t Vit Nam ng tnh xc nhn nguyn nhn y lm pht ln cao nm gi tr nhp siu ln v hiu qu u t thp. Nhng nhn nh ny mi ch dng li biu hin bn ngoi ca nn kinh t, theo chng ti, phn tch su sc cu trc v vn hnh nn kinh t trn c cp v m v vi m mi c th lm r gc r v bn cht ca vn . Xu hng nhp khu v nhp siu Nm 2007, gi tr nhp siu ca Vit Nam trn 12 t USD, gp hn hai ln nm 2006. Mc nhp siu hng ha trong 10 thng u nm 2008 vt 16 t USD (xem hnh 11.3). Nhp siu ln l im khc bit c trng ca giai on 2007-2008 so vi cc thi k kinh t c nhiu bin ng trong qu kh: 1991-1992 v 1997-1998. Trong hai giai on 1991-1992 v 1997-1998, gi tr xut khu hng ha ca Vit Nam tng ng gi tr nhp khu. Ti nm 2008, gi tr nhp siu tng t bin.6 Nhp khu nhiu trong thi k u ca qu trnh cng nghip ha, hin i ha l yu cu khch quan khi nng lc ch to my ci trong nc cha p ng qui m tng trng ca nn kinh t. Chim t trng ln hng nhp khu l nguyn vt liu u vo ca sn xut. My
6
d, 2008:[85]
Thng trm v t ph
21
mc, thit b, dng c v ph tng chim 16%; xng du: 15%; st thp: 9%. Gi th gii ca cc nhm hng ny u tng mnh trong thi gian u nm 2008. Gi tr nhp siu tng nhanh cn chu tc ng ca yu t tng gi t bn ngoi. Hng tiu dng nhp khu c t trng khim tn nhng c biu hin ca chi tiu vt qu mc cn thit. Trong lc gi xng du tng cao, Chnh ph ku gi tit kim, nhng gi tr nhp khu t nguyn chic ca 8 thng u nm 2008 vn tng hn 300% so vi cng k 2007. Hiu qu u t v chi tiu cng Tha nhn hiu qu u t x hi l mt vn t ra cn gii quyt, Chnh ph ch o ct gim nhiu d n u t v chi tiu cng t u nm 2008. Cng vi chnh sch tin t, y l hai bin php quan trng nht trong nhm tm gii php kim ch lm pht, n nh kinh t v m, bo m an sinh x hi v tng trng bn vng. Mc ng gp ca cc bin php ny trong vic gii quyt vn lm pht l khng cao so vi chnh sch tin t nhng y s l phng n ti u iu khin nn kinh t thi gian ti nu bit cch vn dng v kim sot cht ch. Vit Nam ang trong giai on u ca cng nghip ha, do , u t qui m ln v li ch kinh t ch c sau nhiu nm trin khai. Bn cnh ci thin hiu qu u t trc mt, cng cn tnh ti nhng mc tiu di hn v chin lc. V th, u t tip tc l hnh trnh quan trng ca Vit Nam. Vn khng phi c u t na khng m l vo u, theo cch no v hiu qu ti u. Chnh sch tin t tht cht T gia thng 5 n u thng 7/2008, cc ngn hng thng mi gp vn v kh nng thanh khon, dn ti ua nhau tng mnh li sut huy ng vn ni t v ngoi t. Li sut huy ng VND c thi im vt 20%/nm. Ngn hng Nh nc tng cng cc bin php qun l nh nc v hot ng tin t, v sit cht tn dng. Nh , th trng tin t dn h nhit. Mt bng li sut bt u gim vo cui thng 7/2008. Mi lo tng trng tn dng qu nng v lin tc duy tr mc cao t u nm gim dn. Thng 7 v 8/2008, mc tng ny h xung mc thp di mt con s, ln lt l 0,70% v 0,56% (hnh 1.7). Ti cui nm 2008,
22
tng trng tn dng cho c nm c tnh t 21%-22%.
Hnh 1.7: Tng trng tn dng 8 thng u nm 2008

Ngun: Ngn hng Nh nc Vit Nam
T nm 2000 n 2008, tng trng tn dng ca Vit Nam lin tc mc cao, bnh qun gn 30%/nm, thm ch mc 53% vo cui nm 2007. y l qui lut ca nn kinh t ang tng trng v xy dng nn mng cng nghip. Phn tch v chnh sch chng lm pht ca Chnh ph Australia, gio s Graeme Donald Snooks,7 i hc Quc gia Australia, cho rng, n lc xa b hon ton lm pht trong di hn cng ng ngha vi t b tng trng kinh t. Ngay c n lc nng cao li sut v cng c thng d ngn sch nu ch hng ti duy nht mc tiu xa b lm pht cng s to ra nhng tn tht khng cn thit nh kh khn kinh t v bt n x hi. Nm 2007 ghi nhn mc tng trng tn dng 53%, gp hn 2 ln mc gia tng vay n cc nm 2005-2006 (xem hnh 1.8). Tng trng tn dng cao dn ti bin ng gi tr tin t, hnh thnh nh hng kp ti tc gia tng cung tin v nhp siu. Hiu qu ca vic iu hnh trc tip ca Chnh ph ph thuc rt nhiu vo hai yu t: (i) C cu nn kinh t v (ii) Nng lc thc thi ca cc b phn iu hnh. C hai u ang trong giai on chuyn i,
7
d, 2008:[100]
Thng trm v t ph
23
Hnh 1.8: Tng trng tn dng giai on 2000 - 2008

Ngun: Ngn hng Nh nc Vit Nam. 2008: s c tnh
v vp phi nhng hn ch ln v kh nng d bo, phng php iu hnh trong bi cnh v c cu kinh t mi, kinh nghim i ng thc thi - trin khai cn nhiu hn ch, v tc hiu qu tng th ca cc trin khai n l. Gp chung, dn ti nhng ci x hi c th quan st trc tip v nn kinh t nhn tc ng trc tip: phn ng chnh sch. l biu hin r nt nht ca nhng trin khai thay i, ch th v n lc ko nn kinh t v cc im cn bng n nh di hn. T thng 4/2008, Ngn hng Nh nc s dng cng lc cng c li sut, nghip v th trng m v c can thip hnh chnh thc hin chnh sch tin t tht cht. Cc iu chnh lin tc mang li mt s kt qu kh quan.8 Sau mt giai on co rt tn dng , t cui thng 7/2008, mt bng li sut dn n nh cng xu th gim ko di ti ht nm 2008. Cho n cui thng 11/2008, li sut cho vay ca nhiu ngn hng thng mi h xung mc 12%/nm.
Xem bng 9.3 trang 230.
24
1.1.5
Du hiu nh n
T gc nhn ton cu, chng ta thy kh khn kinh t hin din sut nm 2008. Lm pht tng cao t bin u v gia nm. n cui nm, kinh t th gii lm vo tnh trng suy gim. Cc nn kinh t u tu nh Hoa K, EU, Nht Bn u gp phi vn nh tr kinh t. Thc t ny tt yu dn ti xu th suy thoi tng trng ph bin khp cc nn kinh t ton cu. Do tc ng t cuc khng hong tn dng v vic gim chi tiu, nn kinh t Hoa K vn tip tc phi i mt vi nhiu kh khn, thch thc, trong vn nan gii nht l tnh trng suy thoi ca th trng bt ng sn. V di hn, tc tng trng ca nn kinh t Hoa K vn cha thy du hiu kh quan. T l tht nghip ti Hoa K cng tng mnh: t mc 5,1% trong thng 3/2008, tng ln mc 6,1% trong thng 8/2008, mc cao nht trong 5 nm qua, v cn c kh nng trm trng thm vi 533.000 ngi tht nghip ch tnh ring trong thng 11/2008. y l mc tht nghip cao nht ca Hoa K k t sau nm 1974. Trung Quc, quc gia c s dn ng nht th gii, cng ghi nhn c thm 10,2 triu ngi mt vic lm ring trong thng 10/2008. Ngy 1/12/2008, cc nh kinh t thuc Cc Nghin cu Kinh t Quc gia (National Bureau of Economic Research - NBER) thng bo nn kinh t Hoa K chnh thc bc vo giai on suy thoi k t thng 12/2008. NBER cho bit, s tut dc ca th trng lao ng trong sut nm 2008 l mt trong nhng l do ch cht a ra kt lun ny. Trc 2 tun, ngy 14/11/2008, c quan thng k ca EU cho bit, lin tip trong qu II v III/2008, GDP ca 15 nc s dng ng tin chung chu u tt xung mc m. Thng tin ny nh du giai on suy thoi u tin trong lch s ca khi kinh t chung ny. Nhiu nc chu , trong c c Nht Bn v Singapore, cng tha nhn nn kinh t ca mnh ang trong tnh trng tr tr, st gim tng trng. Suy gim tc tng trng kinh t ti Hoa K lan sang cc nc chu u, Nht Bn v chu , tuy nhin, cc nn kinh t mi ni vn gi tc tng trng d c chm li, xem bng 1.2. IMF c tnh kinh t ton cu tng trng mc khong 3,7% trong nm 2008, thp hn mc 4,8% ca nm 2007 v vn cn phi i mt
Thng trm v t ph
25
Bng 1.2: Suy gim tng trng ton cu

Tng trng GDP 2008 D bo Thc t Hoa K 1% Italia < 0* Canada < 0* Eurozone 1,30% -0,2%* Anh 1,80% 1,2%* Trung Quc 9,30% 9% Nga 6,80% n 7,90% Thi Lan < 6% Malaysia < 6% Indonesia < 6% Nht Bn 1,40% 2,4%* Ton cu 4% Ngun: Tng hp ca Empirics.net; (*) Qu II/2008
vi nhiu kh khn v thch thc trong nm 2009. Cc chuyn gia kinh t ca khu vc Eurozone d bo, tng trng kinh t ton cu trong nm 2009 dng li mc 0,5%. Chi ph nguyn vt liu u vo tng cao; t gi bin ng mnh; li sut vay vn cao, tip cn vn tn dng ngn hng gp kh khn; knh huy ng vn qua th trng chng khon tc nghn; nhu cu tiu dng v th trng thu hp... phn ng doanh nghip Vit Nam i u vi giai on kinh doanh kh khn. y l thi k phn ha mnh gia cc doanh nghip da trn tiu ch c bn nht: nng lc cnh tranh. Tnh cnh sn xut nh tr, kh khn trong thanh ton v tn dng cho thy nhng im yu cn sm khc phc: (i) nng lc qun l hn ch; (ii) khng c chin lc v tm nhn kinh doanh; (iii) u t km hiu qu v thiu cn trng; (iv) hm lng gi tr gia tng nh b. Nguyn nhn quan trng, gp phn trm trng thm cc im yu ny l s ho hng qu mc vi th trng chng khon, ko di t gia nm 2006 n ht nm 2007. Ngun vn c huy ng d dng to tm l ch quan v hng th trong mt b phn khng nh cc doanh nghip.
26
Du hiu suy gim kinh t ti Vit Nam dn hin r qua cc ch s thng k kinh t v m. Ch s gi tiu dng lin tc gim trong 4 thng cui nm 2008, trong c 3 thng mc m. St gim gi tr v trm lng giao dch ph bin trn nhiu th trng nh chng khon, t hay bt ng sn. Gi tr xut nhp khu trong nhng thng cui nm gim mnh.
1.2
Tin t tm bo
Vi t cch nn kinh t ln s 1 th gii, li l ni pht sinh khng hong n di chun bt ng sn - c tc ng xa s ln lt nhiu nh ch ti chnh lng danh trong h thng ton cu, nhng bin c trn th trng ti chnh Hoa K c c bit quan tm v theo di st sao. T u nm 2008, h thng ti chnh Hoa K ghi nhn s sp ca nhng nh ch ti chnh ln, khi u l Countrywide Financial ngy 11/01/2008. Hai thng sau, Bear Stearns - ngn hng u t lng danh vi 85 nm lch s, chp nhn ngi ch s hu mi l JPMorgan vi mc gi 2 USD/c phiu trong khi vo ngy giao dch trc , c phiu ny c gi 30 USD trong mt n lc dn xp ca FED trnh v domino. Chnh ph Hoa K cng tr gip cho thng v ny 30 t USD. Nhng n lc ny ch gi mi chuyn trong vng kim sot ti thng 7/2008. Trong hai tun cui thng 7/2008, lin tip ba nh ch ti chnh Hoa K dng hot ng. Nhng cn a chn mnh nht cn cn thm 2 thng na mi xy ra. Ngy 16/9/2008, ngn hng 158 tui Lehman Brothers n xin ph sn. Cng ngy, Merrill Lynch, thng hiu c vn ti chnh u t hng u th gii, thng bo hon tt m phn vi Bank of American, v c BoA chp nhn mua vi gi 50 t USD. Nhng c ging chong vng ln th trng ti chnh M lm chu u v chu cng xy sm (bng 1.3). Ch trong 9 thng u nm 2008, h thng ti chnh ton cu ghi nhn nhng bin c nghim trng p xung 26 t chc ti chnh hng u, c phm vi hot ng ph khp hnh tinh xanh. Thng tch nghim
Thng trm v t ph
27
Bng 1.3: nh ch ti chnh th gii sp v khng hong nm 2008

nh ch ti chnh Ngy Quc gia Countrywide Financial 11/1/2008 Hoa K Bear Stearns 16/3/2008 Hoa K New Century Financial Corp 4/4/2008 Hoa K IndyMac 11/7/2008 Hoa K First National Bank of Nevada 25/7/2008 Hoa K First Heritage Bank of California 25/7/2008 Hoa K Fannie Mea 7/9/2008 Hoa K Freddie Mac 7/9/2008 Hoa K Lehman Brothers 16/9/2008 Hoa K Merrill Lynch 16/9/2008 Hoa K AIG 17/9/2008 Hoa K Halifax Bank of Scotland - HBOS 18/9/2008 Anh Ameri Bank 19/9/2008 Hoa K Washington Mutual 26/9/2008 Hoa K Hypo Real Estate (HRE) 29/9/2008 c Bradford & Bingley (B&B) 29/9/2008 Anh Fortis 29/9/2008 Benelux Wachovia 30/9/2008 Hoa K Ngn hng lin doanh Dexia 30/9/2008 Php-B 6 ngn hng ln nht 30/9/2008 Nht Bn WestLB 2/10/2008 c Ngun: Dan Houtte, Vuong & Partners tng hp, ngy 4/10/2008
28
trng nht, khng ai khc chnh l th trng Hoa K. 14 ngi khng l ti chnh Hoa K ln lt bc xung v i vi kt cc bun thm nht: tuyn b ph sn hoc chp nhn b mua li vi gi r. Thng 9/2008 s i vo lch s ti chnh th gii vi t cch thng ti t nht. 19 ngn hng quc t hoc gc ng hoc ang bn b vc thm tn dng. vn hi tnh th v trn an nh u t, tnh n cui thng 9/2008, chnh ph Hoa K chi ra hn 600 t USD (bng 1.4). Mc d vy, th trng ti chnh quc t vn khng trnh khi st gim ng lot v nghim trng. Bng 1.4: Can thip ti chnh ca Chnh ph Hoa K
Mc tiu tr gip S tin (t USD) H tr JPMorgan mua li Bear Stearns 30 Fannie Mae 100 Freddie Mac 100 AIG 85 Cc khon vay khn cp h tr ngi mua nh 300 Tng cng 615 Ngun: Empirics.net tng hp
Gii ti chnh - u t quc t vn cha dm tin rng hai th ch tn dng bt ng sn c Chnh ph Hoa K h tr, Fannie Mae v Freddie Mac, vi khon tin 200 t USD, v khon vay 85 t USD i ly 79,9% s hu hng bo him AIG s vt ra ngoi vng nguy him. Nhng tin tc ti chnh bt u cp ti tnh th khng kh quan ca CitiGroup, Goldman Sachs v c Morgan Stanley. ng ch l c Lehman Brothers v AIG u l nhng nh ch ti chnh c s tham gia sng lp ca cng ng ti chnh gc Do Thi. Ngy 20/9/2008, B Ti chnh Hoa K v FED a ra mt bn k hoch tr gi 700 t USD vi vic hnh thnh mt nh ch ti chnh, mua li cc khon n xu trong h thng ti chnh nhm gii quyt cuc khng hong tn dng bt ng sn. Ngay khi chi tit k hoch c cng b, cc th trng ti chnh v u c ng lot gi tn hiu phn ng tch cc. ng thi ny cng cng c ngha quan trng ca n s
Thng trm v t ph
29
kinh t chnh tr Hoa K, ang dn hin r sau cuc ua vo Nh Trng nm 2008. Ti y, vn cn nhiu cu hi cha th c cu tr li thu o. u l gii php hon ho vn hi tnh trng ngy mt xu i ca nn kinh t Hoa K, a h thng ti chnh ton cu tr li nhng ngy ti p? Mt th ch ti chnh do Chnh ph Hoa K lp nn mua li cc khon n tn dng bt ng sn vi gi r, nh c m t trong bn xut 3 trang A4 do hai ng Bernanke (Ch tch FED) v Henry Paulson (B trng Ti chnh Hoa K) chun b, s khc g vi Fannie Mae v Freddie Mac? Mc s hu ca Chnh ph Hoa K s ti u? Ai s thu li t vic mua r v k vng bn c cao gi trong tng lai? V sao ti lc ny phng thuc k diu mi c a ra - cc b c sng sut ca gii ti chnh n gi mi pht huy hay cn c thi gian dn xp cn cn ng sau hu trng chnh tr? Dng nh c mt s tha hip ngm gia hai ng ln nht Hoa K vo gia thng 9/2008. ng vin Tng thng Barack Obama ca ng Dn ch v ng kim Tng thng Bush ca ng Cng ha u dnh nhng li tt p cho bn k hoch trn trong chng nc rt y kch tnh ca cuc ua vo Nh Trng. Chin thng cui cng thuc v ng c vin ca ng Dn ch, ngi nhn c ng h mnh m t ph Wall vo thng 11/2008. Bn xut i k hoch gii cu th trng ti chnh Hoa K huy ng ngun lc 700 t USD c FED v B Ti chnh Hoa K xy dng, cui cng c Thng vin v H vin Hoa K thng qua trong m ngy 3, rng sng ngy 4/10/2008. Nhng ngy hi hp v u lo ca cc nh u t ton cu kt thc vi nhiu hy vng liu thuc thn k, vn cht na khng c a vo s dng khi ch trc 4 ngy, H vin b phiu bc b 3 trang A4 k hoch c cc ng Bernanke v Paulson chuyn ti. Trong bui sng (gi New York) ch i quyt nh cui cng t Quc hi, ch s chng khon Dow Jones ln xung khng ngng vi khong cch t vi chc ti vi trm im. Gii ti chnh quc t u hng v cc bng in t ca ph Wall. Khng ging nh nhiu d on, sau khi b Ch tch H vin Nancy Pelosi cng b k hoch c thng qua vi 263 phiu thun v 171 phiu chng, ch s Dow
30
Jones t mc tng gn 300 im, trong vng 30 pht gim xung ch cn tng 50 im. Ti 1 gi 35 pht sng 4/9/2008 (gi H Ni), ch s ny chuyn sang mu , mt 10 im. Nhiu nh u t Vit Nam l gii th trng chng khon New York o chiu bi tnh chuyn nghip cao ca nh u t Hoa K. H mua vo khi mi thng tin ch l n on v bn ra cht li c cng b chnh thc. iu ny khng ng. t cc vo gi c phiu tng khi khon 700 t USD cho th trng ti chnh c thng qua l ng lc u c mua vo. Cc lc lng th trng hon ton c th nh cuc cho pha bn kia, gi c phiu gim khi H vin mt ln na bc b. Vic dn lc ti chnh cho mt kt cc ch hp l khi bng cch no , kt qu b phiu Washington c sp t t trc. Nu qu ng nh vy, mt sc mnh quyn lc v cng ln, vi kh nng thao tng c chnh sch ca cng quc kinh t hng mnh nh Hoa K, c c hi thu ngun li khng l ch trong vi gi ng h. Nhng m xoay quanh khon gii cu 700 t USD nhanh chng b lng qun khi lin tip cc ngn hng trung ng chu u, Nht Bn cng b gi h tr khng km phn honh trng nhm lp li trng thi n nh ca cc th trng ti chnh. Vo lc , danh sch ngn hng thng mi ph sn ti Hoa K tip tc in thm tn t s th 17, Freedom Bank Bradenton, bang Floria. Ti thng 11/2008, danh sch ny ni di thm 5 ngn hng na. Ni lo s m h khng ch m nh nhng nh u t chng khon. Bt k ngi iu hnh chnh sch kinh t, nh qun tr doanh nghip, cn b cng chc hay nhn vin kinh doanh, ai cng kim tm mt cu tr li tng tn xem iu g ang xy ra. Hiu bit l cn thit. Nhng hiu sai cch hay khng y cn nguy him hn. Cn nguyn su xa ca nhng vn v bn cht vn hnh nn kinh t, s an xen su sc kinh t v m v vi m l nhng th khng d nm bt qua mt vi trang bo hay i chc pht trao i trn truyn hnh. l cha k ti s u i s dng rt nhiu thut ng chuyn ngnh phc tp kin gii mt nguyn l kinh t vn gn gng v gin d. Tin trnh quc t ha i sng kinh t Vit Nam ang tng tc. Ngoi nhng bin c kinh t v m v chao o trn th trng chng khon nh thy, cn g na s n vi nn kinh t Vit Nam? iu
Thng trm v t ph
31
chc khng n thun l cc vn ring r nh xut khu gim, nhp siu cao, lm pht, nh tr, h thng ngn hng lung lay, dng vn ngoi chy ngc ra khi Vit Nam... Cuc chi ton cu ang c nhng iu chnh. Hi ngh thng nh G20 kt thc m cha c mt li gii c th cho nn kinh t ton cu ang ng trc nguy c suy thoi. Liu cc xut hnh thnh nhng nh ch quc t mi kiu Hi ng kinh t ton cu9 v Hi ng gim st n nh ti chnh chu u10 hay nhng gim st cht ch hot ng ca cc qu u t ri ro v thay i quy tc hch ton ti sn ti chnh trong h thng ngn hng c pht huy hiu qu v ci thin tnh hnh? S ni ln ca sc mnh kinh t Trung Quc c lm thay i cc din kinh t th gii vn quen cc tr ct Hoa K v Ty u? p lc m h cn cha hin r nhng sc lnh gh ngi ph ti rt gn. C rt nhiu ti c cc ngn hng trung ng v cc nh lnh o th gii bn ti, nhng tm im quan trng nht vn l lm sao cng c v ti thit cc nn tng kinh t b suy yu. V nh vy, c th ngh ti vn ci r su xa ca nim tin b xi mn trong cng chng u t. Chnh iu ny gy ra a phn cc hn lon kinh t hin i. Liu lnh o cc ngn hng trung ng c tm li gii khi cng nhau ngi quanh bn trn v tho lun v nhng vn gi lan rng ti mi ngc ngch ca a cu? Khng ai dm qu quyt. l vic ca cc ngn hng trung ng cc nn kinh t phng Ty, ni m ngi ta tin tng vo nn tng kinh t vng vng c th iu khin cc hot ng thng mi v kinh t xy dng li s t tin ca chnh cc quc gia ny vo h thng ca mnh. Nhn vo khon chi tiu ca cc chnh ph, hng trm t USD tin ng gp ca nhng ngi np thu c dn dt ti cc hot ng thng mi thuc s hu t nhn. Rt kh m ni rng nh th l cng bng, nht l khi chnh ph cho d khng c nhiu s la chn, a ra cc gi cu tr v tin khong hu cho vi quy m ln cha tng c trong lch s. Vai tr ca chnh ph c l c cao qu mc vi hy
Do nh kinh t nhn gii thng Nobel Joseph Stiglitz xut Do cu Thng c Ngn hng trung ng Php, Ch tch T gim st ti chnh cao cp ca EU, Jacques de Larosie xut
10 9
32
vng rng nhng khon vung tay ny s gip phc hi nim tin t cng chng. Phng trnh hn ch ngn sch chnh ph ni ting tit l mi b mt. K hoch ca ngy hm nay gy tn hi nng n tnh n nh ca nng lc tiu dng quc gi trong tng li, m c l l rt gn.11 Vn vi cc ngn hng trung ng chu u thm ch cn tr nn phc tp hn bi cc ngn hng ny c cng phng thc tip cn nhng vn kinh t ang lan rng ton cu. Phi hp cng IMF? Vin ti ng thun ca cc nh lnh o G20 trong k hp thng nh sp ti? Huy ng thm ngun tin t Trung Quc v th gii -rp? Chng ti tin tng tt c nhng ng thi ny u qu t v qu mun, c bit khi cc vn , vn d hin hin nhiu thng, li c khi ngun t phng trnh cn bn v nim tin trong mi x hi. Nhiu y ban hn, nhiu phin hp hn v thm ch nhiu tin ca hn u vn cha phi gii php tho g tnh th khng hong. Tuy nhin, cc t duy i mi mnh m v ti sng hn trong n lc xy dng cc nn kinh t lnh mnh - vi qui tc vng ca cc iu lut cn trng, c th s lm nn nhiu iu. Khng t bn c cng ging nh chng ti c cm gic suy t, lo lng, thch th, lin h v c... hong s trc nguy c mt cuc chin tranh tin t trn qui m ton cu c th xut hin v tn ph nhiu nn kinh t. Gi thit v th lc ngn hng quc t thao tng v iu khin hot ng kinh t th gii c tht? Vit Nam s lm g chng nhng chic vi bch tuc ti chnh mm mi, y uy lc? Trong cc chng tip theo, chng ti cng qu c gi s tm v nhng gi tr ct li nht ca tinh thn kinh doanh v kinh t Vit Nam, xem xt qu trnh chuyn i h thng kinh t t nc t c ch k hoch ha tp trung sang c ch th trng nh hng x hi ch ngha trong bi cnh ton cu ha, cc th trng v ti sn trng yu ln lt l i tng kho st, phn tch v c rt cc qui lut, hin tng ph qut. V cui cng, hnh trnh dng li vi nhng suy ngh v trao i v nhng bi hc kinh nghim, hnh trang v phng tin i tip, p bng sng gi bng nng lc sng to, tinh thn lp nghip v ch on kt quyt tm xy dng T quc Vit Nam giu mnh, t lp, t cng.
11
Ni dung ny s c trao i k hn trong Chng 12.
Ti liu tham kho

[1] Mitchel Y. Abolafia and Martin Kilduff. Enacting market crisis: the social construction of a speculative bubble. Administrative Science Quartely, 33:177193, 1998. 11.2.1 [2] Phillip Arestis, Panicos O. Demetriades, and Kul B. Luintel. Financial development and economic growth: the role of stock markets. Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 33(1):1641, Feb. 2001. 10.1.1 [3] George Armstrong. Rothschild Money Trust. Omni Publication, 1940. 8.1.3 [4] J. P. Aumiphin. La prsence fiancire et conomique francaise en Indochine. Ed. Statistique, H Ni, 1998. 1, 9 [5] Jeon Bang Nam and Seo Byeongseon. The impact of the asian financial crisis on foreign exchange market efficiency: the case of East Asian countries. Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 11:509525, 2003. 9.3.2 [6] World Bank. Vietnam Financial Sector Review: An Agenda for Financial Sector Development. World Bank, Hanoi, Vietnam, 1995. 8.2 [7] World Bank. Foreign capital flows in Vietnam, background paper for the economic report Vietnam: Deepening Reform for Growth.. WB Publication Service, Washington, D.C., U.S.A., 1997. 5.2.5 [8] World Bank. Vit Nam- Vt ln th thch. Hi ngh Nhm T vn cc Nh Ti tr cho Vit Nam, 7-8/12/1998. 6.1, 9.1.2 [9] Michel Beine, Bnassy-Quer Agns, and Christelle Lecourt. Central bank intervention and foreign exchange rates: new evidence from
539
540
FIGARCH estimations. Journal of International Money and Finance, 21:115144, 2002. 9.3.2 [10] Michel Beine and Sbastien Laurent. Central bank interventions and jumps in double long memory models of daily exchange rates. Journal of Empirical Finance, 10:461660, 2003. 9.3.2 [11] Mandelbrot Benoit. The variation of certain speculative prices. Journal of Business, 36(4):394419, 1963. 10.2.3 [12] Tng Hng Bnh. Chin tranh tin t. Nh xut bn Tr/ China CITIC Press, 2008. 1.1.2 [13] Tim Bollerslev. A conditionally heteroskedastic time series model for speculative prices and rates of return. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 69(3):542547, Aug. 1987. 10.2.3 [14] William Adams Brown. Comments on gold and the monetary system. American Economic Review, 30(5):3851, 1941. 9.2.3 [15] Wallich Henry C. Money and Growth. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, pages 281302, May 1969. 11.4 [16] John Y. Campbell, Sanford J. Grossman, and Jiang Wang. Trading volume an serial correlation in stock returns. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Nov. 1993. 10.2.3 [17] Guglielmo Maria Caporale, Peter G. A. Howells, and Alaa M. Soliman. Stock market development and economic growth: the causal linkage. Journal of Economic Development, 29(1):3350, 2004. 10.1.1 [18] Tng cc Thng k. Vit Nam: Khu vc kinh t ngoi quc doanh trong thi k i Mi 1991-1995. H Ni, 1996. 8.13 [19] Tng cc Thng k. Xut nhp khu hng ha Vit Nam 20 nm i Mi. Nh xut bn Thng k, H Ni, 2006. 5.2.4 [20] A.G. Chandavarkar. The nature and effects of gold hoarding in underdeveloped economies. Oxford Economic Papers, 13(2):137148, 1961. 9.2.3, 9
Thng trm v t ph
541
[21] Chang, R. and A. Velasco. Liquidity crises in emergin markets: theory and policy. NBER Working Paper Series, 7272, 1999. 11.4 [22] Chor-yiu Sin v Yuk-shing Cheng Chi-shing Chan. Currency attack/defense with two-sided private information. EconPaper/RePEc, November 2003. 11.3 [23] Corsetti, G., P. Pesenti, and N. Roubini. What caused the asian curency and financial crisis? NBER Working Paper Series, 1998. 11.4 [24] David O. Dapice. An overview of the vietnamese economy after the Asian crisis. John F. Kenedy School of Government, Harvard University, 2001. 11.4 [25] Glyn Davies. A History of Money: from ancient times to the present day. University of Wales Press, Cardiff, 2002. 8.1.3 [26] Rudiger Dornbush and Stanley Fischer. Macro Economics. McGrawHill, sixth edition, 1992. 12.5 [27] Rudiger Dornbush and Stanley Fischer. Moderate inflation. Worlbank Economic Review, pages 144, Jan. 1993. 11.4 [28] Hali J. Edison, Pongsak Luangaram, and Marcus Miller. Asset bubbles, leverage and life boats: Elements of Easet Asian Crisis. The Economic Journal, 110(460):309334, 2000. 11.2.1 [29] Barry Eichengreen. The real exchange rate and economic growth. Working Paper, Commission on Growth and Developemnt, World Bank, 4, 2008. 9.1.2 [30] J.D. Ellen Hodgson Brown. Web of Debt: the shocking truth about our money system and How we can break free. Third Millennium Press, Baton Rouge, Louisiana, 2008. 8.1.3, 2 [31] Robert F. Engle. Autoregressive conditional heteroscedaticity with estimates of the variance of United Kingdom inflation. Econometrica, 50(4), Jul. 1982. 10.2.3 [32] Eugene F. Fama. The behavior of stock-market prices. Journal of Business, 38(1):34105, Jan. 1965. 10.2.3
542
[33] Eugene F. Fama. Efficient capital markets: A review of theory and empirical works. Journal of Finance, 25(2):383417, 1970. 10.2.3 [34] Eugene F. Fama. Efficient capital markets: II. Journal of Finance, 46(5):157531617, 1991. 10.2.3 [35] Eugene F. Fama and James D. MacBeth. Risk, return, and equilibrium: Empirical tests. The Journal of Political Economy, 81(3):607636, Jun. 1973. 10.2.3 [36] Andre Farber. Vietnams emerging stock market: Reviews and comments. National Economics University Conference, April, 2002. 12.4.1 [37] Stanley Fisher and Robert C. Merton. Macroeconomics and finance: The role of the stock market. NBER Working Paper, Massachusetts, 1984. 10.1 [38] Donald B. Freeman. Doi Moi policy and the small-enterprise boom in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam. Geographical Review, 86(2):178197, 1996. 7.3 [39] Milton & Rose Friedman. Free to Choose: A personal statement. Harcourt Brace Jovanovich, New York and London, 1980. 15, 16, 4 [40] Frankline Allen & Douglas Gale. Bubbles and Crisis. The Economic Journal, 110(460):236255, 2000. 12.3.1 [41] Amil Dasgupta Giancarlo Corsetti and Hyun-Song Shin. Does one soros make a difference? a theory of currency crises with large and small traders. Review of Economic Studies, 71:87113, 2004. 11.3 [42] CTCK Si Gn. Phng n pht hnh tri phiu chuyn i. SSI, H Ni, 2006. 7 [43] Richard K. Green and Susan M. Watcher. The American mortgage in historical and international context. The Journal of Finance, 19(4):93114, 2005. 12.2 [44] June Grem. The Money Manipulators. Enterprise Publications Inc., PO Box 488, Oak Park, Illinois 60303, 1971. 8.1.3
Thng trm v t ph
543
[45] G. Edward Griffin. The Creature from Jekyll Island. American Media, PO Box 4646, Westlake Village, CA 91359, 1994. 7.7, 8.1.3 [46] Smoluk Helbert J., Vasconcellos Geraldo, and Kramer Jonathan K. Random walk in the u.k. pound/u.s. dollar exchange rate. International Review of Financial Analysis, 7(1):6582, 1998. 9.3.2 [47] Andrew Carrington Hitchcock. The Synagogue of Satan. RiverCrest Publishing, 1708 Patterson Road, Austin, Texas 78733, 2007. 15, 8.1.3 [48] Ngn hng Nh nc Vit Nam. Bo co trnh Chnh ph: Thc hin chnh sch v chc nng ca NHNN giai on 1991-1997. H Ni, 1998. 8.13 [49] Ngn hng Nh nc Vit Nam. Bo co thng nin 1998. H Ni, 1999. 8.13 [50] Ngn hng Nh nc Vit Nam. Bo co thng nin 1999. H Ni, 2000. 8.13 [51] Y. Hwang. Asymmetric long memory garch in exchange return. Economics Letters, 73:15, 2001. 9.3.2 [52] Bhatia Rattan J. Inflation, deflation, and economic development. IMF Staff papers, 8(1):10114, 1960. 11.4 [53] Michael Jensen. Some anomalous evidence regarding market efficiency. Journal of Financial Economics, 6:95101, 1978. 10.2.3 [54] JICA and CIEM. Fiscal and monetary policy: Financial analysis on Vietnamese commercial banks. JICA working papers on country analysis, Oct. 1997. 8.13 [55] Harry G. Johnson. Is Inflation a Retarding Factor in Economic Growth? Fiscal and Monetary Problems in Developing States, pages 12137, 1967. 11.4 [56] Alan B. Jones. Lets fix America! ABJ Press, PO Box 2362, Paradise, CA 95967, 1994. 7.7, 8.1.3 [57] Jonathan A. Parker Karl E. Case, Edward L. Glaeser. Real estate and the macroeconomy. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 20(2):119162, 2000. 12.3.1
544
[58] Tetsusabora Kimura. Vietnam-Ten year economic struggle. Asian Survey, 26(10):10391055, 1986. 4.5, 4.6, 4.7 [59] Paul Krugman. A model of balance of payments crises. Journal of money, credit and banking, 11, 1979. 11.3 [60] L Quc L. Quan h gia lm pht vi li sut v kim ch lm pht Vit Nam. Tp ch Kinh t v D bo, Thng 6, 2008. 9.1.1 [61] Ball Laurance. What determine the sacrifice ratio? Paper, 4306, 1993. 11.4 NBER Working
[62] Guijun Lin and Schramm Ronald M. Chinas foreign exchange policies since 1979: A review of development and an assessment. China Economic Review, 14:246280, 2003. 9.3.2 [63] Andrew W. Lo and A. Craig MacKinlay. Stock market prices do not follow random walks: evidence from a simple specification test. The Review of Financial Studies, 1(1):4166, 1988. 9.3.3 [64] Wu Lyh-Lin and Chen Show-Lin. Foreign exchange market efficiency revisited. Journal of International Money and Finance, 17:831838, 1998. 9.3.2 [65] Ronald MacDonald. The role of the exchange rate in economic growth: a euro-zone perspective. Working Paper Research Series, National Bank of Belgium, Conference 150th Anniversary, 2003. 9.1.2 [66] Fritz Machlup. Eight questions on gold: a review. American Economic Review, 30(5):3037, 1941. 9.2.3 [67] Marshall, D. Understanding the Asian crisis: Systemic risk and coordination failure. Economic Perspective, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Third Quarter:1328, 1998. 11.4 [68] Frederic S. Mishkin. The Economics of Money, Banking, and Financial markets. Pearson, Addison Wesley, seventh edition edition, 2004. 8.1.4, 10 [69] ng Cng sn Vit Nam. Vn kin i hi ng ln th III, IV, V, VI, v VII. Nh xut bn S tht, H Ni, 1999. 8
Thng trm v t ph
545
[70] ng Phong. Lch s kinh t Vit Nam - Tp I: 1945-1954. Nh xut bn Khoa hc X hi, H Ni, Vit Nam, 2002. 2.1, 15, 2.3, 2, 13, 8 [71] ng Phong. Lch s kinh t Vit Nam-Tp II: 1955-2000. Nh xut bn Khoa hc X hi, H Ni, Vit Nam, 2005. 2, 4, 6, 7, 4.2, 8, 10 [72] L.T. Nghiep and L.H. Quy. Measuring the impact of Doi Moi on Vietnams Gross Domestic Product. Journal of Asian Economic Literature, 14(3):31732, 1999. 5.2.1 [73] Trn Nhm. Trng Chinh vi hnh trnh i mi t duy. Nh xut bn Chnh tr quc gia, H Ni, 2005. 12 [74] Marjorie Niehaus. Vietnam 1978: The elusive peace. Asian Survey, 19(1):8594, 1979. 4.3 [75] o Xun Sm v V Quc Tun. i Mi Vit Nam: Nh li v suy ngm. Nh xut bn Tri thc, Vit Nam, 2008. 1, 2 [76] R.R. Officer. The distribution of stock returns. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 67(340):807812, Dec. 1972. 10.2.3 [77] S.N Oh. Financial deepening in the banking sector-Vietnam. Asian Development Review, 12:2052, 1999. 8.2 [78] Desai Padma. Macroeconomic fragility and exchange rate vulnerability: a cautionary record of transition economeis. Journal of Comparative Economics, 26:621641, 1998. 9.3.2 [79] Michael Palmer. An investigation of factors associated with variations in the relative importance of commercial bank residential real estate loans. The Journal of Finance, 23(1):68788, 1968. 12.3.3 [80] Dwright H. Perkins. Ci cch h thng kinh t Vit Nam v Lo. Nhng thch thc trn con ng ci cch ng Dng, pages 3364, 1997. 5.2.1 [81] Phm Minh Chnh. Bo m an ninh kinh t trong giai on khng hong ti chnh ton cu. Tp ch Cng sn in t, 24/01 2009. 13.1.1 [82] Phm Minh Chnh v Vng Qun Hong. Bi hc kinh nghim v bo m an ninh kinh t 2008. Tp ch Cng an Nhn dn, Thng 10, 2008. 13.1.3
546
[83] Phm Minh Chnh v Vng Qun Hong. An ninh ti chnh quc gia: 7 du hiu cnh bo. Tp ch Cng sn, (786):7178, Thng 5/2008. 4, 12.6 [84] Phm Minh Chnh v Vng Qun Hong. Bi cnh ti chnh Vit Nam 1997-1998 v 2007-2008: khong cch v bin i. Tp ch Nghin cu Kinh t, 7(362):324, Thng 7/2008. 6 [85] Phm Minh Chnh, Vng Qun Hong v Trn Tr Dng. Nhng thi k bin ng ca nn kinh t Vit Nam: Bn cht ca vn v gii php cho tng lai. Tp ch Cng sn, 792:3541, Thng 10/2008. 1.1, 6, 6.3 [86] McKinnon R. Financial liberalization in Retrospect: interest rate policies in LDCs: In the state of development Economic. Blackwell, New York, 1989. 10.1.1 [87] Radelet, S. and J. Sachs. The oneset of the East Asian financial crisis. NBER Working Paper Series, 6680, 1998. 11.4 [88] James Riedel. The Vietnamese economies in 1990s. Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, 11:18, 1997. 8.2 [89] James Riedel and Suiwah Leung. The role of the state in Vietnams economic transition. Asia Pacific School of Economics and Government. The Australian National University, 2001. 2, 3 [90] Lisa Roman. Vietnam-banking in the present, living in the past. Stockholm: Stockholm School of Economics, working paper series., 1995. 8.13 [91] Murray N. Rothbard. The Mystery of Banking. Richarson&Snyder, 1983. 8.1.3 [92] Jon Christian Ryter. Whatever Happened to America? Hallberg Pub., 2001. 1.1.2 [93] Dorrance Graeme S. The effect of inflation on economic development. IMF Staff papers, 10(1):147, 1963. 11.4 [94] Dorrance Graeme S. Inflation and growth: the statistical evidence. IMF Staff papers, 13(1):82102, 1966. 11.4
Thng trm v t ph
547
[95] S.W. Salent and D.W. Henderson. Market anticipations of government policies and the price of gold. Journal of Political Economy, 86, 1978. 11.3 [96] Harvard Kenedy School. Vt qua khng hong v tip tc y mnh ci cch. La chn thnh cng: Bi hc t ng v ng Nam cho tng lai ca Vit Nam, 2008. 5.2.2 [97] Theodore Shabad. Economic developments in North Vietnam. Pacific Affairs, 33(1):3653, 1958. 3 [98] Y. Shimomoto. Developing the capital market-Vietnam. Asian Development Review, 12:5472, 1999. 8.2, 9 [99] Herbert Simpson. Real estate speculation and the Depression. The American Economic Review, 23(1):16371, 1933. 12.3.4 [100] Graeme Donald Snooks. The irrational war on inflation: Why inflation targeting is both socially unacceptable and economically untenable. Global Dynamic Systems Centre, Working paper(1), March, 2008. 1.1.4, 7 [101] Michael E. Solt and Paul J. Swanson. On the efficiency of the markets for gold and silver. Journal of Business, 54(3):453478, 1981. 9.2.4 [102] Shale T. How Vietnam works. World Business: The global perspective, pages 2733, Sep.-Oct. 1995. 5.3.2 [103] Robert Tsay. Conditional heteroscedastic time series models. Journal of American Statistical Association, pages 590604, 1987. 10.2.3 [104] Wai U. Tun. The relationship between inflation and economic development: A statistical inductive study. IMF Staff papers, 7(2):30217, 1959. 11.4 [105] Sachs J. v W.T. Woo. Experiences in the transition to a market economy. Journal of Comparative Economics, 18(3):271275, 1994. 5.2.1 [106] Vng Qun Hong. im nng quan h c ng: lm sao lm tt. Doanh nhn Si Gn cui tun, 215, 14/9/2007. 5
548
[107] Vng Qun Hong. Bi hc t bin ng nn ti chnh Nht Bn. Tp ch Kinh t & Pht trin (i hc Kinh t quc dn H Ni), 1996. 12.3.2 [108] Vng Qun Hong. Vn minh lm giu & Ngun gc ca ci. Nh xut bn Chnh tr quc gia, H Ni, Vit Nam, 2007. 2.1, 7, 7.1, 1, 2 [109] Vng Qun Hong. Mt khuyn ngh cho tng trng kinh t vit nam trong kh khn ca khng hong kinh t - ti chnh ton cu. Tp ch Cng sn in t, 173, 11/3 2009. 11.5 [110] Vng Qun Hong, Ng Phng Ch v Nguyn Tun Vinh. T gi USD/VND c n nh sai phn (1)? Phn tch m hnh ARIMA (1,1,0) nm 2001 trn s liu nm 1990-2000. Tp ch Nghin cu Kinh t, 2001. 9.3.2 [111] Vng Qun Hong, Nguyn Hng Sn v Trn Tr Dng. Nhng quan st v trin vng kinh t ton cu 2008, sau vn nn tn dng bt ng sn v chnh sch tin t phng nga cho Vit Nam. Tp ch Cng sn, (784):123127, Thng 2/2008. 6.3, 12.3.2 [112] Vng Qun Hong tr li phng vn. S thnh vng Trn my v nhng ri ro tim n. u t chng khon, pages 36,37, 2007. 6.3 [113] Vng Qun Hong v Nguyn Hng Sn. V mi quan h lin thng gia cc th trng chng khon, bt ng sn v tin t. Tp ch Cng sn, (785):5662, Thng 4/2008. 1.1.1, 6.2, 6.3, 6, 12.3.3, 12.3.4 [114] Vng Qun Hong v Trn Tr Dng. Chuyn qu u t Vit Nam. Din n doanh nghip, Thng 2/2008. 2, 5 [115] Vuong Quan Hoang. The leasing alternative. Vietnam Business Journal, 7(5):26, 1997. 8.13 [116] Vuong Quan Hoang. Corporate bond: a financing alternative. Vietnam Investment Review, 7:16, 2000. 8.13 [117] Vuong Quan Hoang. Essays on Vietnams financial markets: databases and empirics. Ecole de Commerce Solvay, Universit Libre de Bruxelles, 21 Ave. F.D. Roosevelt, B-1050, 2003. Thse doctorat en sciences de gestion, ULB-Solvay. 9.1.1
Thng trm v t ph
549
[118] Vuong Quan Hoang. Essays on Vietnams financial reforms: Foreign exchange statistics and evidence of long-run equilibrium. Working paper CEB, 03-013.RS., 2003. 14 [119] Vuong Quan Hoang. Evidence of garch effect in stock returns: Vietnam stock market 2000-2003. Vietnam Journal of Mathematical Application, 2(1):1530, 2004. 10.2.3 [120] Vuong Quan Hoang. A question of leverage. Vietnam Investment Review, page 13, 24 March 1997. 6.1, 4 [121] Vuong Quan Hoang and Andr Farber. Some new results on anomalies and herd behavior: Vietnam Stock Market. Economic Studies Review (Vietnam), 44(9), 2004. 10.2.1, 11.2.2, 4 [122] Vuong Quan Hoang and Ngo Phuong Chi. An approach to the theory of the parallel foreign exchange rates: statistical evaluation of USD:VND exchange rates. Economic Studies Review, 42(9):1827, 2002. 9.3.2 [123] C.R. Whittlesey. The gold dilemma. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 51(4):581603, 1937. 9.2.3, 8 [124] Daniel Yergin. Du m, tin bc, v quyn lc. Nh xut bn Chnh tr quc gia, H Ni, 2008. 1.1.2 [125] Alfred Zauberman. Gold in Soviet economic theory and policies. The American Economic Review, 41(5):879890, 1951. 9.2.3, 10, 11
Ph lc tra cu
i Mi, xxviii, 66, 74, 95, 96, 110, 121, 124, 144, 146, 147, 149, 161, 171, 198, 222, 289, 382, 499, 533 c phn ha, 102 ch ngha x hi, 159 doanh nghip nh nc, 157 GDP, 99, 108 kinh t t nhn, 159 lm pht, 106 ngn hng, 150 thnh tu, 98 th trng ti chnh, 189 tin t, 405 la ha, 226, 275, 290, 410 u c, 286 u c, 4, 137, 265, 293 la ha, 286 bt ng sn, 300 bong bng, 412 chng khon, 355 khng hong, 510 quc t, 7 tin t, 420 u t, 75, 90, 92 x hi ha, 53 i tin, 78 c lp tin t, 56 ADB, 171 ASEAN, 113, 172 bn v vng, 250, 256 John Maynard Keynes, 251 Rothschild, 252 bt ng sn, 351, 370, 451 ng bng, 301 u c, 300 CDO, 456 FDI, 308, 314 gi, 300 giao dch, 303 thng tin, 311 by n, 390 bong bng, 451 u c, 355, 411 South Sea Company, 355 bong bng u c, 416 truyn thng, 418 cn bng sc mua, 279, 288 cng c n khon vay mm, 190
550
Thng trm v t ph
551 GDP, 88, 93, 112, 133 gi tr, 145 giao dch ch nh, 142 t nh, 142, 147 h thng ngn hng, 115, 116 hai cp, 115 h thng ti chnh, 97, 127, 160 hi nhp, 121, 158, 171 hp tc x, 69, 83 hp tc x tn dng, 82, 209 hiu ng by n, 418 huy ng vn, 86 ICOR, 93, 103 IMF, 116, 171, 516 IS - LM FED, 483 John Maynard Keynes, 478 JPMorgan, 2, 26 Bear Stearns, 456 khi nghip, 164 khng hong, 2, 438 u c, 510, 523 tht nghip, 24 chnh ph, 511 nim tin, xxviii, 5 ti chnh 2008, xxvii, 3 tn dng bt ng sn di chun, 3 khng hong ti chnh, 108 khon, 75 kiu hi, 81 kinh t t nhn, 71, 155, 159
c ch gi dc, 143, 161 ngang, 144, 162 cnh tranh, 145 cu trc kinh t, 83 c phn ha, 101, 157 chnh sch thu, 84 chnh sch tin t, 115, 116 ch ngha t bn, 69, 531 ch ngha x hi, xxix, 69 i Mi, 159 co ch gi, 500 CPI, 106 du m, 8 Nga, 11 DATC - Cng ty Mua bn n v ti sn tn ng ca doanh nghip, 198 doanh nghip nh nc i Mi, 157 c phn ha, 102 n xu, 199 FDI, 108, 110, 112, 125, 133, 148, 166, 314, 429, 430 u t trc tip nc ngoi, 163 bt ng sn, 308 FED, 29 m hnh IS - LM, 483 FED - Ngn hng Trung ng Hoa K, 2 FPI u t gin tip nc ngoi, 163
552 kinh t th trng, 115
li sut, 83, 118, 217, 222, 446 by thanh khon, 233 li sut c bn, 229 li sut chit khu, 184 trn li sut, 228 lm pht, 88, 94, 97, 106108, 147, 148 phi m, 107 LM, 481 Lut mt gi, 292 m hnh Harrod-Domar, 91 IS - LM, 483 Solow, 91 m hnh IS-LM, 478 ng IS, 480 ng LM, 481 m hnh kinh t, 73 nng nghip, 75 n xu, 103 doanh nghip nh nc, 199 Nancy Napier, 164 ngn hng, 111 FPI, 167 Lut cc t chc tn dng, 179 Lut Ngn hng Nh nc, 179 n xu, 203 ngn hng nc ngoi, 211 th trng lin ngn hng, 214 Ngn hng u t v Pht trin Vit Nam, 190
Ngn hng Cng thng Vit Nam, 178 ngn hng c phn t nhn, 116 Ngn hng Kin thit Vit Nam, 85 Ngn hng Nng nghip Vit Nam, 178 ngn hng nc ngoi, 116 Ngn hng Ngoi thng Vit Nam, 81, 190 Ngn hng Nh nc Vit Nam, 77, 176, 186, 189 Ngn hng Quc gia Vit Nam, 62, 77, 176, 189 ngn hng thng mi, 4, 116, 134 ngn hng thng mi c phn, 179, 195, 207 ngn hng thng mi nh nc, 150, 178, 195, 197, 198, 202, 205, 475 ngn hng trung ng, 116 Bng tng kt ti sn, 184 pht hnh tin, 182 t l d tr bt buc, 186 tin c s, 187 ngoi hi, 80 th trng ngoi hi lin ngn hng, 277 Trung tm giao dch ngoi t, 277 ngun vn u t, 108 Nguyn Tn Dng - Th tng Chnh ph, 172, 226, 410 nhp siu, xxix, 87, 93, 109, 148, 427 1955-1957, 80
Thng trm v t ph
553
nim tin, 61 Nobel, 10
c nh, 272, 420 ch a t gi, 81 t gi hi oi, 277 PPP, 279, 288 th ni, 237 tht nghip, 90 Qu Tin t Quc t - IMF, 19 th trng, 95, 97, 106 th trng chng khon, 350, 493 rent-seeking, 134 Rockefeller, 9 iu kin nim yt, 323 Standard Oil, 9 y ban Chng khon Nh Rothschild, 43, 520 nc, 319 Ngn hng ng Dng, 44 ARMA-GARCH, 321 Nh Nobel, 10 bc nhy gi, 331 Rockefeller, 10 bt ng sn, 351, 370 vng, 246 by n, 321 by n), 358 seigniorage, 45, 525 bin giao dch, 329 Seven Sisters, 12 bong bng, 355 Nhm by ch em, 12 cng ty chng khon, 337 stochastic processes Cng ty nim yt, 325 GARCH c ch giao dch, 327 conditional variance, 364 chia tch, 360 GARCH, 364 ti chnh, 94 giao dch thng thng, 328 tn dng, 115117, 148 giao dch tha thun, 328 cp pht vn, 84 HOSE, 320 phi chnh thc, 117 k thut giao dch, 329 tn dng ngn hng, 84 l chn, 328 tn dng ngn hng, 83 ngi to lp th trng, 335 tng trng, 100, 143 nh u t, 327 to ra tin, 181 nim tin, 398 tn cng tin t OTC, 322 t gi, 422 qun tr xung t li ch, 393 tp on kinh t nh nc, 158 qu u t, 338 t gi, 67, 97, 134, 235, 273, 282, quan h nh u t, 389 288, 293, 422 ng rp, 272 s cp, 448
554
th cp, 449 truyn thng, 392, 398 vn i din, 395 VN-Index, 348 th trng chng khon Vit Nam, 19, 166, 174 th trng hiu qu- EMH, 361 th trng ti chnh, xxix, 384 th trng tin t, 116 thanh khon, 134 thiu pht, 108 tit kim, 86, 91, 92 bt ng sn, 304 s tit kim, 198 tin, 61, 182, 226 tin giy, 42 chu u, 43 giy bc C H, 59, 183 giy bc Goldsmith, 43 Thng bo hi sao, 43, 183 tin mt, 116 tin t, xxix, 55, 405 i tin, 78 tin t ha, 106 tn cng tin t, 419 vng, 242 tinh thn kinh doanh, 41 tri phiu tri phiu chnh ph, 371 tri phiu chuyn i, 370 tri phiu chnh ph, 376, 407, 448 government bond, 371 HaSTC, 372 trc 1945 khai m, 39
thc dn Php, 39 Trung tm Giao dch Chng khon H Ni, 322, 372 Trung tm Giao dch Chng khon thnh ph H Ch Minh, 320 truyn thng, 137, 418 vng, 13, 80, 242, 408 sn lng, 247 vn c phn, 119 vin tr, 70, 84, 87, 93, 148 VN-Index, 2, 348 WB, 171 WTO, 2, 54, 133, 172, 211, 342, 489 x hi ch ngha, 72 xut khu, 75, 162

Kinh T Vit Nam THNG TRM Va T Pha

Uploaded by

Document Information

Original Title

Copyright

Available Formats

Share this document

Share or Embed Document

Sharing Options

Did you find this document useful?

Is this content inappropriate?

Copyright:

Available Formats

Kinh T Vit Nam THNG TRM Va T Pha

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

KINH T VIT NAM THNG TRM V T PH

Phm Minh Chnh Vng Qun Hong

Ngy 12 thng 5 nm 2009

KINH T VIT NAM: THNG TRM V T PH

c Phm Minh Chnh & Vng Qun Hong

c Phm Minh Chnh & Vng Qun Hong

c Phm Minh Chnh & Vng Qun Hong

c Phm Minh Chnh & Vng Qun Hong

c Phm Minh Chnh & Vng Qun Hong

7.3 7.4 7.5 7.6

c Phm Minh Chnh & Vng Qun Hong

c Phm Minh Chnh & Vng Qun Hong

507 . . . . 507 . . . . 508 . . . . 517 . . . . 520 . . . . 524 . . . . 533 539 550

c Phm Minh Chnh & Vng Qun Hong

xxi 381 388 408 416 426 428 431 434

13.1 Thm ht ngn sch nh nc giai on 2002-2006 . .

c Phm Minh Chnh & Vng Qun Hong

Danh mc bng biu

c Phm Minh Chnh & Vng Qun Hong

c Phm Minh Chnh & Vng Qun Hong

13.1 Cn cn tranh c Tng thng Hoa K nm 2008 . . . .

c Phm Minh Chnh & Vng Qun Hong

c Phm Minh Chnh & Vng Qun Hong

c Phm Minh Chnh & Vng Qun Hong

c Phm Minh Chnh & Vng Qun Hong

Khng hong tn dng Hoa K 2007-2008

c Phm Minh Chnh & Vng Qun Hong

u c quc t tng mnh

Thng (barrel): n v o lng quc t, tng ng 150 lt.

c Phm Minh Chnh & Vng Qun Hong

Hnh 1.2: Gi du th th gii v xng Mogas 92 Vit Nam

c Phm Minh Chnh & Vng Qun Hong

c Phm Minh Chnh & Vng Qun Hong

hng quc t ch ng gim gi du, khin Nga mt i mt qun bi chin lc.

Hnh 1.3: Bin ng gi du nm 2003 (FOB)

Xem phn kin gii v vai tr v ngha ca vng trang 242

c Phm Minh Chnh & Vng Qun Hong

Hnh 1.4: Ch s gi tiu dng, vng v USD trong nm 2007-2008

Hnh 1.5: Bin ng gi go 8 thng u nm 2008. n v: VND/kg

c Phm Minh Chnh & Vng Qun Hong

Th trng chng khon quc t bin ng kh lng

c Phm Minh Chnh & Vng Qun Hong

Hnh 1.6: Bin ng t gi t nm 2007 n thng 11/2008

Lm pht bng n khp ni

c Phm Minh Chnh & Vng Qun Hong

c Phm Minh Chnh & Vng Qun Hong

tng trng tn dng cho c nm c tnh t 21%-22%.

Hnh 1.7: Tng trng tn dng 8 thng u nm 2008

Hnh 1.8: Tng trng tn dng giai on 2000 - 2008

Xem bng 9.3 trang 230.

c Phm Minh Chnh & Vng Qun Hong

Bng 1.2: Suy gim tng trng ton cu

c Phm Minh Chnh & Vng Qun Hong

Bng 1.3: nh ch ti chnh th gii sp v khng hong nm 2008

c Phm Minh Chnh & Vng Qun Hong

c Phm Minh Chnh & Vng Qun Hong

c Phm Minh Chnh & Vng Qun Hong

Ni dung ny s c trao i k hn trong Chng 12.

Ti liu tham kho

c Phm Minh Chnh & Vng Qun Hong

c Phm Minh Chnh & Vng Qun Hong

c Phm Minh Chnh & Vng Qun Hong

c Phm Minh Chnh & Vng Qun Hong