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IU CHNH CC CNG THC TNH IRR V NPV

Tc gi: Thc S Nguyn Trng Sn a ch: 2/1/11 Bnh gi,P. 13, Qun Tn Bnh Tm Tt
Hin nay, o c hiu qu cc d n ngi ta s dng nhiu phng php nh phng php thi gian ha vn, phn tch li nhun ch ph, li nhun k ton v.v. Trong , vic tnh ton hiu qu d n bng phng php chit khu dng tin thng qua hai ch s chnh l hin gi thun ca dng tin (NPV) v sut sinh li ni b (IRR) c ging dy rng ri trong cc trng i hc cng nh c a chung v s dng ph bin trong thc t v tnh hu dng v hin i ca chng. Tuy nhin, trong qu trnh tnh ton, hai ch s ny l ra nhng nhc im chnh l khi p dng vo mt s d n chng cho ra kt qu khng chnh xc hoc mu thun trong kt qu hoc chng khng th o lng c kt qu ca d n. Nhc im ny lm mt i rt nhiu u im ca cng c ny v gy ra khng t tr ngi cho vic o c d n. V vi tnh cht cng c nh vy, r rng l ta phi kim tra li kt qu d n sau mi ln o c v nu trong trng hp khng o c hiu qu d n bng cng c trn th ta li phi tm mt cng c khc o c. khc phc nhc im ca cng c o c trn, bi vit s i su vo phn tch cc cng thc tnh NPV v IRR bng l thuyt ti chnh v dng tin tm ra nhng thiu st, sai lm trong cc cng thc ny, qua cng da trn l thuyt ti chnh v dng tin ra vic chnh sa cc cng thc ny li theo hng hon thin hn nhm gip cc cng thc ny c th tnh ton hiu qu ca bt kz cc loi d n vi kt qu chnh xc hn. Vi vic iu chnh cc cng thc tnh NPV v IRR, cc cng thc tnh mi c p dng vo cc trng hp c th m cc cng thc c khng th tnh ton c hoc tnh c m cho ra kt qu mu thun. Bi vit cng th tnh thm vi trng hp chng minh cng thc c khng cho kt qu chnh xc so vi cc cng thc va iu chnh, bng cch so snh kt qu tnh vi kt qu ca cc cng thc o hiu qu d n tng ng nh cng thc tnh li nhun k ton, cng thc tnh sut sinh li ni b bin i MIRR trong excel. Qua kt qu iu chnh cc cng thc tnh hin gi dng tin (NPV) v sut sinh li ni b (IRR), hai cng thc ny khc phc c nhng nhc im va nu ra v tr thnh nhng cng c o lng hiu qu d n hon chnh hn v chnh xc hn, c tm p dng m rng cho vic o c ton b cc d n khng phn bit chng c cu trc theo dng tin nh th no i na. Ngy 29 thng 06 nm 2011 Tc gi: Th.S Nguyn trng Sn

Author: MBA. Nguyn Trng Sn


Address: 2/1/11 Bnh Gi Str, Ward 13, Tn Bnh Distrist, HCM city

SUMARY
Currently, to measure the effectiveness of the project we use several methods as payback period method, cost- profit analysis, accounting rate of return (ARR) method, etc. In particular, the calculation of effectiveness by discounted cash flow method through two main indicators of cash flow: net present value (NPV) and internal rate of return (IRR) has been widely taught in the Universities as well as popular and widely used in practice because of their usefulness and modernity. However, in the calculation, the two indicators has revealed that the main drawbacks. When we apply to a number of projects they produce incorrect results or inconsistencies in the results or we can not measure results of the project. The downside is losing a lot of advantages of the tool and cause many problems for the measurement project. Because of the nature of such tools, it is clear that we must re-examine the project results after each measurement and in case of non measurable with this tool, we must find another. To overcome the disadvantages of the measurement tool, this article will analyze NPV and IRR formulas in the theory of financial cash flow to find flaws or errors in that formula. And then,also based on financial theory on the premise, suggesting the way to manipulate these formulas so they can calculate the effectiveness of any cases with better results. By adjusting that formulas NPV and IRR, that new formulas has been applied in case that the previous formulas can not be calculated or is calculated to produce results that conflict. To prove the inaccuracy of previous formulas, the article has also tried to apply the new formulas on additional cases with the result that is the same by comparing to the accounting rate of return method and the formula of modified internal rate of return MIRR in Microsoft Excel After adjusting formulas present value of cash flow (NPV) and internal rate of return (IRR), two formulas have overcome the aforementioned disadvantages and have become the tools by which the effectiveness of project is evaluated more complete and more accurate and they have a wide range of application for the measuring of all projects, regardless of their construction of cash flows.
06 May 29, 2011 Author: MBA. Nguyen Truong Son

I. NHNG HN CH CA CC CNG THC CHIT KHU DNG TIN Phng php chit khu dng tin t lu c s dng rng ri tnh ton hiu qu ca d n thng qua hai ch s chnh l hin gi thun ca dng tin (NPV) v sut sinh li ni b (IRR) theo cc cng thc tnh nh sau:

Vi: Cc cng thc ny t ra rt hu dng khi p dng tnh ton hiu qu hu ht cc d n, tuy nhin trong mt s trng hp cc cng thc ny bc l nhng hn ch nht nh. C th l khi p dng vo mt s cc d n, cc cng thc ny khng cho ra c cc gi tr IRR hoc cho ra nhng tr s NPV v IRR khng tin cy. minh ha cho pht biu ny chng ta hy cng xem xt 02 bi ton sau: I.1 Bi ton 01 (Cng thc IRR khng cho gi tr IRR): Cho d n c cc dng tin nh sau: Nm 0 - 20,000 Nm 1 15,000 Nm 2 5,000 Nm 3 15,000 Nm 4 Nm 5 - 20,000 1,000 ( )

IRR c tnh t phng trnh sau:

=0

Gii phng trnh ny s cho kt qu IRR l v nghim.Nh vy cng thc khng tnh c sut sinh li d n l bao nhiu %. I.2 Bi ton 02 (Cng thc IRR cho ra nhiu gi tr v NPV cho gi tr mu thun): Cho d n vi nhng dng tin nh sau: Nm 0 Nm 1 Nm 2 Nm 3 Nm 4 Nm 5 - 20,000 45,000 - 25,000 35,000 - 50,000 12,000

tnh IRR ca d n ta p dng cng thc tnh nh sau:

Gii phng trnh trn bng cng c goal seek trn excel ta thy d n ny s c hai sut sinh li ni b (IRR). IRR1 = 10,85% IRR2 = 66,88% Khi d n c nhiu sut sinh li ni b th rt kh chn sut sinh li no s c s dng v khi gi tr NPV cng s thay i tht thng khng ng tin cy. Th d, vi d n trn, nu yu cu sut sinh li nh 11% th NPV = - 156 < 0 cn nu yu cu sut sinh li ln hn l 67% th NPV = 55> 0. y l mt nghch l khng th chp nhn. Th d ny cho ta thy cc cng thc tnh IRR v NPV cho ra nhng ch s NPV v IRR khng chnh xc i vi d n trn. Qua 02 v d va ri, minh chng cho s khng hon thin ca ca cc cng thc chit khu dng tin NPV v IRR khi p dng vo nhng d n nh trn. Vy c nhng sai st no trong cc cng thc chit khu dng tin va nu trn khin cng c ny b hn ch nh th? Bi vit ny nhm tm cch pht hin sai st v iu chnh cc cng thc tnh IRR v NPV ca phng php chit khu dng tin mang n tnh kh thi cng nh v chnh xc ca cc cng thc ny.

II. IU CHNH CC CNG THC CHIT KHU DNG TIN II. 1 Pht hin im cha hon thin ca cc cng thc tnh IRR, NPV gii quyt vn ny trc ht ta xem li cch chit khu dng tin ca d n ko di 5 nm trong bi ton 02 trn. Vi dng tin dng (dng tin ra khi d n)
0 X 1 2 3 4 5

CF1 CF3 CF5

Cc dng tin nh hng chnh n sut sinh li r ca d n. Do vy, ta c th tnh hin gi ca dng tin ny nh sau:

Trong , nm i. -

l sut sinh li mong mun ca d n v PVi l hin gi ca dng tin ti

Vi dng tin m (dng tin gp vo d n)


CF2 CF0 CF4

CF3

Dng tin m pht sinh ti mt thi im l dng tin gp vo d n ti thi im , khng ph thuc vo sut sinh li r ca d n. Do vy, chit khu n v thi im hin ti (nm 0). khi tnh hin gi ca dng tin ny ta khng th chit khu n vi sut sinh li r ca d n c. Dng tin ny c sut chit khu ring ph thuc vo tnh cht ca n. Thng thng, c c dng tin ny vo thi im cn thit, ngi ta c th d tr dng tin ny vo nm u c d n v c th gi vo ngn hng vi li sut thng thng khng ri ro, do vy, sut chit khu ca nhng dng tin u t ny l sut sinh li ph bin ca th trng vi ri ro thp nht (li sut ngn hng).

Nh vy, hin gi ca nhng dng tin m s c tnh theo cng thc nh sau:

Trong , l li sut vay hoc l li sut ngn hng v PVi l hin gi ca dng tin ti nm i. Nh vy, i m cha ho n thin trong cc cng thc tnh NPV, IRR l ch s dng mt su t chi t kh u duy nh t p dng cho t t c cc dng ti n d chng l m hay dng hoc ni rng ra d nhng dng ti n ny c tnh ch t th n o i na th chng ch c 1 su t chi t kh u duy nh t. i u i m cha ho n thin ny s dn n nhng k t qu tnh ton h n ch nh trn. S dng su t chi t kh u c a dng ti n m khc vi su t chi t kh u c a dng ti n dng chnh l i m khc bit chnh y u trong phng php mi n y tnh ton IRR cng nh NPV nhm h n ch nhng khuy t i m c a phng php tnh chi t kh u trc y. C s l lun ti chnh ca vic s dng nhiu sut chit khu trong d n l mi dng tin u c mt t sut chit khu ring ph hp vi tnh cht ca chng v vi chit khu ny dng tin c th c chit khu v bt k thi im no trong d n.

Th d: Dng tin vay phi c sut chit khu bng vi li sut cho vay. Dng tin u t nhiu giai on c sut chit khu bng vi li sut huy ng Dng tin dng sinh ra bi d n c sut chit khu bng sut sinh li ca d n Vic xc nh chnh xc t sut chit khu ca tng dng tin s phn nh ng n mc nh hng ca chng trong d n. Tng qut ta s vit li cng thc tnh IRR v NPV theo cch mi nh sau:

Trong : -

) ( )

( ) Nu xem dng tin dng mang sut chit khu l sut sinh li ca d n v dng tin m mang sut chit khu l li vay ngn hng th cc cng thc trn c th vit li n gin nh sau:

Trong :

Trong trng hp d n ch c mt dng tin u t thi gian u ca d n v cc dng tin pht sinh trong nhng nm sau u l dng tin dng th cng thc tnh NPV v IRR s l cng thc trc y:

Vi l

dng tin ti thi im i

Nh vy cng thc tnh NPV v IRR trc y l mt trng hp ring ca cc cng thc mi ny II. 2 p dng cng thc mi gii quyt cc hn ch ca cng thc tnh trc y: II. 2.1 Gii quyt trng hp khng tnh c IRR Tr li bi ton khng c nghim IRR nh sau: Nm 0 - 20,000 Nm 1 15,000 Nm 2 5,000 Nm 3 15,000 Nm 4 Nm 5 - 20,000 1,000

Khi tnh bng cng thc trc y:

S cho kt qu IRR l v nghim.

Khi tnh bng cng thc mi vi sut huy ng ca dng tin m l 14% theo cng thc sau:

Kt qu thu c IRR = 6, 17% Nh vy, ta c th kt lun d n ny c sut sinh li ni ti l 6, 17% II. 2.2 Gii quyt trng hp tnh IRR v NPV khng chnh xc Tr li v d 02 trn, vi d n c nhng dng tin nh sau: Nm 0 Nm 1 Nm 2 Nm 3 Nm 4 Nm 5 - 20,000 45,000 - 25,000 35,000 - 50,000 12,000

Vi phng php chit khu dng tin trc y, d n ny c 2 tr s IRR IRR1 = 10,85% IRR2 = 66,88% Dng li sut huy ng ca ngn hng trung bnh l 14% cho dng tin m, ta s tnh sut sinh li ni b theo phng php mi nh sau:

Nu sut sinh li ca dng tin u t l 14% th IRR ca d n ch c mt gi tr duy nht l 14.40% p dng cng thc tnh NPV mi

Nu r = 14% th NPV ca d n s l NPV = 489 > 0,


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Nu r = 15% th NPV s l NPV = - 731 < 0. Khi r tng th NPV gim v ngc li iu ny ng vi bn cht ca NPV.

C th kim li cch tnh ny trn th. Hm NPV(r) l hm s ng bin do vy ch c tn ti mt nghim duy nht m thi. III. KT LUN

III. 1 u im ca cc cng thc mi: Dng cc cng thc mi trn s loi tr c tt c cc trng hp IRR a tr a n mt kt qu IRR duy nht mi hp l hn. Chng minh: Ta c: Dng tin u t ban u Dng tin u cc nm sau + dng tin dng ca d n = 0 (1) Dng tin u t ban u Dng tin u t cc nm sau c gi tr m v c gi tr xc nh khi ta xc nh c sut chit khu . Gi s ta t gi tr ny l PVA. Nh vy phng trnh trn c th vit li nh sau: Dng tin dng ca d n = PVA (3) Cng thc ca dng tin dng ca d n c dng sau:

Phng trnh (3) l hm s n iu, c gi tr t + n 0 vi x i t 0 n + , do vy phng trnh (2) lun c nghim v ch c 01 nghim IRR duy nht.
th NPV(r)
10,000 5,000

Hin gi rng (NPV)

0 0% -5,000 -10,000 -15,000 -20,000 -25,000 -30,000 Sut sinh li (r) Series1 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 160%

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Cc cng thc tnh NPV, IRR mi c xy dng mang tnh tng qut c th p dng tnh ton IRR, NPV cho tt c d n m trong d n ny nhng dng tin c cu trc bt k. Sau y l mt v d in hnh gip chng minh tnh chnh xc v hp l ca cng thc mi o Cho d n u t nhiu giai on vi cc dng tin nh sau: Nm 0 1 -450 800 2 3 500 -500 4 5 500 -500 6 -200 7 500 8 -1000 9 800 10 500

Tnh IRR theo cng thc trc y ta c: IRR = 111.27% Tnh IRR theo cng thc mi ta c : IRR = 23.4% vi li sut r0 = 14% Tnh theo MIRR trong excel ta c MIRR = 17% vi li sut u t li l r = 14% Tnh theo li nhun k ton: Tin thu c/Tin u t = 3.600/2650 = 36% Nh vy, IRR tnh theo cng thc mi gn vi li nhun k ton v MIRR hn v khng c khong cch qu xa nh tnh bng cng thc c. III. 2 Khuyt im ca cc cng thc mi: Phi s dng mi t sut chit khu cho dng tin mi dng tin Phng php tnh cc ch s mi s phc tp hn.

Tuy nhin, vi nhng u im v khuyt im trn, cc cng thc ny hon ton c th p dng tnh ton IRR v NPV ca mi d n vi nhng gi tr o c kh thi v chnh xc hn. Ngy 20 thng 06 nm 2011 Tc gi ThS. NGUYN TRNG SN

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