XC NH GI TR DOANH NGHIP

L tnh ton, xc nh s thay i v mt gi tr

ca DN ti mt thi im nht nh. L qu trnh
c tnh khan tin ngi mua c th tr v ngi
bn c th thu khi bn DN.
L hot ng khoa hc c tnh tng hp v kh
nng d on cao
Xc nh gi tr DN l qu trnh xc nh gi tr thc
t ca mt DN ti mt thi im nht nh trn c
s th trng nhm to lp c s cc bn tham
gia giao dch mua bn DN.

CC PHNG PHP XC NH
PHNG PHP GI TR TI SN THUN
L phng php xc nh gi tr DN da trn gi tr th trng
ca cc loi ti sn ca DN ti
n thi im nh gi

Vc Vi Vd
i 1

Vc
V
nh gi i

Trong :

: Gi tr ti sn thun
: Gi tr th trng ca ti sn i ti thi im

: Gi tr th trng ca cc khon n
n : S lng cc loi ti sn

Vd

CC PHNG PHP XC NH
PHNG PHP GI TR TI SN THUN
Cc bc xc nh:
- Kim k v phn loi ti sn
nh gi cht lng cn li ca ti sn, bn
thnh phm v xc nh gi ca chng
Hai phng php nh gi:
Da vo gi tr ban u (gi tr s k ton)
tr khu hao v iu chnh theo gi th trng
Da vo gi th trng

CC PHNG PHP XC NH
PHP CHIT KHU LUNG C TC

Cng thc tnh:

n

DIVt
VC
t
t 1 (1 r )
M hnh Gordon:

DIV1 DIV0 (1 g )
VC

r g
r g

CC PHNG PHP XC NH
PHNG PHP CHIT KHU HAI GIAI ON
n

DIVt
Vt
VC

t
t
(1 r )
t 1 (1 r )
n

DIVt
DIVt
VC

t
t
(r g )(1 r )
t 1 (1 r )

CC PHNG PHP XC NH
PHNG PHP DNG TIN CHIT KHU
CF (Dng tin)=Li nhun thun+Khu hao
FCF (Dng tin t do)= CF- Cc khon u
t
n

FCFt
FCFt
VC

t
t
(r g )(1 r )
t 1 (1 r )

Hai thng s c bn:

Dng tin t do
Mc chit khu dng tin (r)

CC PHNG PHP XC NH
PHNG PHP H S GI/THU NHP (P/E)

Vc = NI P/E
NI : Gi tr li nhun trong k
P/E: H s gi trn thu nhp mt
nm ca doanh nghip
E l EPS= NI/n
n : s lng c phiu ang lu hnh

Thc trng xc nh gi tr
doanh nghip Vit Nam
Phng php ti sn:
Gi tr thc t ca doanh nghip l gi tr
thc t ton b ti sn hin c ca DN c
tnh n kh nng sinh li ca DN
Gi tr thc t phn vn Nh nc ti DN
bng tng gi tr thc t ca DN tr (-) cc
khon n phi tr, s d qu phc li, khen
thng v s d ngun kinh ph, s nghip
(nu c)

Phng php xc nh c th
TT

Nhm ti
sn

Cn c
nh
gi

Cch thc nh gi

Gi tr ti sn
hin vt-TS hu
hnh

Gi th
trng

Nguyn gi tnh theo gi tr th

trng nhn () cht lng cn li
ca TS ti thi im nh gi

Gi tr TS bng
tin
Tin mt
Tin gi ngn
hng

Gtr s
sch
Gtr s
sch

Xc nh theo bin bn kim qu

Xc nh theo s d c i
chiu xc nhn vi ngn hng
Xc nh theo gi giao dch trn th
trng. Nu khng c giao dch th
xc nh theo mnh gi ca giy t

Giy t c gi
_tn phiu, tri
phiu v.v)

Gi th
trng

Phng php xc nh c th (tt)

TT

Nhm ti
sn

Cn c
nh gi

Cch thc nh gi

Gi tr n phi thu

Gi tr s
sch

Xc nh theo s d thc t trn s

k ton sau khi x l nhng khan
khng c kh nng thu hi

Gi tr chi ph d
dang

Ga tr s
sch

Xc nh theo thc t pht sinh hch

ton trn s k ton

Gi tr ti sn k
cc

Ga tr s
sch

Xc nh theo s d thc t trn s

k ton c i chiu xdc nhn

Gi tr ti sn v
hnh

Gi tr s
sch

Xc nh theo gi tr cn li trn s
k ton

Gi tr li th kinh
doanh

Thu nhp

Gi tr phn vn NN theo s k ton

ti thi im nh gi nhn ()t l
vt tri ca t sut li nhun trn
vn NN bqun 3 nm trc CPH so
vi li sut CP c k hn 10 nm tr
ln

TT
8

Nhm ti sn Cn c nh
gi
Gtr u t di hn
ti
cc
doanh
nghip khc
Cc cty cha nim
yt
Cc cty cha nim
yt

T l vn CSH
nm gi
Gi tr s sch

Cc cng ty nim
yt

Gi tr quyn s
dng t
DN nhn gtr quyn
SD do Nh nc
giao
DN thu t ai

Gi quy nh

Khng tnh gi

Cch thc nh gi
Xc nh theo t l nm gi
da trn gi VCSH theo BCTC
kim ton
Xc nh theo gi tr ghi trn
s k ton khi gi tr xdc
nh theo phng php t l
VCSH nm gi thp hn gi tr
ghi trn s k ton
Xc nh trn c s gi c
phiu giao dch trn th trng
CK
Xc nh theo gi do UBND
cc Tnh, Tp trc thuc TW
quy nh cng b vo ngy
01/1 hng nm theo quy nh
ca Chnh ph
Khng tnh vo gtr DN khi
CPH

PHNG PHP DCF

Bo co ti chnh DN trong 5 nm lin k
trc khi xc nh gi tr DN
Phng n hot ng SXKD ca doanh
nghip CPH t 3 n 5 nm sau khi chuyn
thnh cng ty c phn
Li sut tr trc ca tri phiu CP c k
hn t 10 nm tr ln v h s chit khu
dng tin ca DN
Gi tr quyn s dng t i vi din tch
t c giao

PHNG PHP DCF (tt)

Gi tr thc t phn vn NN ti DN c xc
nh theo cng thc:
Chnh lch
n
Gi tr thc t
Di
Pn
v gi tr

quyn s
i
n
phn vn NN
(1 r ) (1 r )

i 1

Di
i
(1 r )
Pn
n
(1 r )

dng t
nhn giao
Gi tr hin ti ca c tc nm th i

Gi tr hin ti ca c phn vn nh
nc nm th n

Trong :
i: Th t cc nm k tip k t nm xc nh gtr DN
Di: Khon li nhun sau thu dng chia c tc nm
th I
n: S nm tng lai c la chn (3 n 5 nm)
Pn: Gi tr phn vn NN nm th n v c xc nh
Dn 1
theo cng thc:

Pn

rg

Dn+1: Khon LN sau thu dng chi c tc d kin

ca nm th (n+1)
r : T l chit khu hay t l hon vn cn thit ca cc
nh u t khi mua c phn v c xc nh theo
cng thc:

r rf rP

Rf T sut li nhun thu c t cc khon u t

khng ri ro c xc nh bng li sut tr
trc ca tri phiu CP c k hn t 10 nm tr
ln thi im gn nht vi thi im nh gi
DN
RP T l ph ph ri ro khi u t mua c phn ca
cc cty VN c xc nh theo bng ch s ph
ph ri ro CK quc t ti nim gim nh gi hoc
do cc cty nh gi xc nh cho tng DN nhng
khng vt qu t sut li nhun thu c t
cc khon u t khng ri ro
g T l tng trng hng nm ca c tc c xc
nh nh sau:

g = b R

g = b R
Trong :
b T l nhun sau thu li b sung vn
R T sut li nhun sau thu trn VCSH bnh
qun ca cc nm tng lai

Quy trnh v xc nh gi tr DN
Bc 1: Chun b v hon thin nhng ti liu, chng t DN lm cn
c xc nh gi tr DN
a)
b)
c)
d)
e)
f)
g)
h)

Cc h s php l khi thnh lp DNNN

Cc h s php l v quyn qun l v s dng ti sn ti DN (bao
gm c din tch t c giao hoc thu)
H s v cng n (c bit l cc khon n tn ng)
H s v vt t, hng ha ng, km, mt phm cht
H s cc cng trnh u t xy dng (k c cc cng trnh c
quyt nh nh hon)
Bo co ti chnh ca DN n trc thi im nh gi
Bo co quyt ton thu c xc nhn ca c quan thu a phng
Cc ti liu khc (nu c)

Quy trnh v xc nh gi tr DN (tt)

Bc 2: T chc kim k v xc nh gi tr ti
sn
Cng DN t chc kim k, phn loi ti sn x l nhng
vn v ti chnh ti thi im nh gi v xc nh gi tr
ti sn m DN c nhu cu s dng sau khi chuyn sang cng
ty c phn
Vic kim k nhm tin hnh xc nh ng s lng v
cht lng ca ti sn thc t hin c DN ang qun l v s
dng ti thi im kim k, t xc nh gi tr ti sn
tha, thiu so vi s sch k ton

Ti sn c nh v u t di hn: Vic kim k TS

s c tin hnh theo hng l phn loi ra 4 nhm
tin hnh kim k v xc nh gi tr

Quy trnh v xc nh gi tr DN (tt)

Ti sn c nh v u t di hn: Vic kim k TS
s c tin hnh theo hng l phn loi ra 4 nhm
tin hnh kim k v xc nh gi tr

Nhm 1: Ti sn ang dng

Nhm 2: Ti sn khng cn dng
Nhm 3: Ti sn ch thanh l
Nhm 4: Ti sn hnh thnh t Qu khen thng,
qu phc li (nu c)

Kt qu xc nh gi tr x nghip
giao nhn vn chuyn
CH TIU

S LIU THEO S
SCH K TON

S LIU XC
NH LI

CHNH LCH

TS ang dng

18566376574

18741407879

175031304

TSC v u t
di hn

4752939519

4911690824

158751305

TSL v u t
ngn hn

13813437055

13829717055

16280000

Tng gi tr
thc t ca DN

18566376574

18741407879

175031305

N thc t phi
tr

12099299453

12099299453

N phi tr

11937504437

11937504437

6642108426

175031305

Tng gi tr
thc t phn

6467077121

Kt qu xc nh gi tr x nghip
giao nhn vn chuyn
CH TIU

S LIU THEO
S SCH K
TON

S LIU XC CHNH
NH LI
LCH

TS khng
cn dng

20054029

20054029

TS ch thanh 110040126
l

110040126

Tng TS

1887150203
4

17503130
5

18696470729

BNG CN I K TON
Ch tiu TS

Theo s sch Theo xc nh

li

Chnh lch

TSL v u t
ngn hn

13813437055

13829717055

16280000

Vn bng tin

914026409

914026409

Cc khon phi
thu

7568752869

7568752869

Hng ha tn kho 2281080737

2281080737

TSL khc

3049577040

3065857040

16280000

TSC v u t
di hn

4883033674

5041784979

158751305

Tng TS

18696470729

18871502034

175031305

BNG CN I K TON
Ch tiu TS

Theo s sch

Theo xc nh
li

Chnh lch

N phi tr

11937504437

11937504437

N ngn hn

11530419530

11530419530

N khc

407084907

407084907

Ngun vn
CSH

6758966292

6933997597

175031305

Ngun vn qu

6597171276

6772202581

175031305

Ngun kinh ph

161795016

161795016

Tng ngun
vn

18696470729

18871502034

175031305

PHNG PHP XC NH GI
TR DOANH NGHIP
KHI CHUYN THNH CNG TY
C PHN

Cng ty T vn xy dng
Thy li Lng Sn
n v: 1000

Nm

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

LNST

128.823 164.774 187.432 199.450 202.258

Vn Nh
nc

289.902 38.802

480.302 580.302 680.303

c tnh li nhun 3 nm tng lai

T l tng trng bnh qun n nh li nhun sau
thu trong qu kh nm 1998 2002 l 11.94%
4
Cng thc tnh: 202.258 = 128823*(1 T)
T
= 11.94%
P sau thu 2003
= P sau thu 2002*111.94%
= 202258*111.94% = 226.408
P sau thu 2004
= P sau thu 2003*111.94%
= 226.408*111.94% =253.441
P sau thu 2005
= P sau thu 2004*111.94%
= 253.441*111.94% = 283.702

c tnh li nhun sau thu

chia c tc phng n l 50%
D1
D2
D3

=
=
=
=
=
=

50%*P sau thu

226.408*50% =
50%*P sau thu
253.441*50% =
50%*P sau thu
283.702*50% =

2003
113.204
2004
126.720
2005
141.851

D kin vn Nh nc 3 nm
tng lai t 2003 2005
Vn NN 2003 = Vn NN 2002 + 30% P sau thu 2003
= 680.303 + (226.408*30%)
=
748.225
Vn NN 2004 = Vn NN 2003 + 30% P sau thu 2004
= 748.225+ (253.441*30%)
=
824.257
Vn NN 2003 = Vn NN 2004 + 30% P sau thu 2005
= 824.257+ (283.702*30%)
=
909.368

Xc nh t sut li nhun ca vn
Nh nc bnh qun (2003 2005)
ROE1: T sut li nhun trn vn Nh nc
nm 2003
226.408

0.302
748.225
ROE2: T sut li nhun trn vn Nh nc
nm 2004
253.441

0.307
824.257
ROE3: T sut li nhun trn vn Nh nc
nm 2005
283.702

0.311
909.368

Xc nh t sut li nhun ca vn
Nh nc bnh qun (2003 2005)

(0.302 0.307 0.311)

ROE
0.31
3

Xc nh t l g (T l tng trng
hng nm ca c tc)
g b * ROE 0.30 * 0.31 0.0922
b: T l li nhun sau thu dng b
sung vn ly l 30%

Xc nh t l chit khu
(T l hon vn)
r rf rp 8.51 % 7.4% 15 .91 %
rf: Li sut Tri phiu chnh ph (t pht hnh
13/6/2003) l 8.51%
rp: 7.40%

c tnh vn Nh nc
ti thi im xc nh gi

Gi thc t
D1
D2
P 2004

2
1 r (1 r ) (1 r ) 2
113 .024
126 .720
2.1120 .334

2
1 0.1591 (1 0.1591 )
(1 0.1591 ) 2
97 .665 94 .320 1.578 .811 1770 .796

Gi tr thc vn Nh nc ca Cng ty

Vy gi tr thc vn Nh nc ca Cng
ty ti thi im xc nh l 1.076.947
Gi tr thc t
Doanh
nghip=

Gi tr thc t
vn Nh nc
+

N phi
tr
+

Qu phc li,
khen thng

=1.770.796

+1.076.947

+174.42 =3.022.168
5

Xc nh gi tr doanh nghip

TS O L MINH
G Trung tm NCKH&TCK_UBCKNN
Website: srtc.org.vn