Li m u

Manh nha ca th trng chng khon bt u t th k 12 ti Php, xut pht t nhu cu mua bn n trong lnh vc nng nghip. Tri qua qu trnh thng thng, bun bn trao i gia cc nc, hnh thnh nn cc cng ty trch nhim hu hn u tin,v th trng chng khon tng bc pht trin cho n nay. Th trng chng khon l ni din ra cc hot ng trao i bun bn cc loi chng khon nhm huy ng vn hay u t cc khon vn nhn ri. Mi loi chng khon c nhng c im ring, c gi tr th trng ring, tt c c bun bn trn th trng to nn s ln xung ca th trng chng khon. vic u t c hiu qu cc nh u t cn c ci nhn chung nht v xu hng ca th trng, cc ch s chng khon ra i t . Mi mt th trng chng khon thit lp nhng ch s chng khon ring phn nh tnh trng hot ng ca chnh th trng chng khon , c th k n mt s ch s chng khon nh Nasdaq 100, Dow Jones, S&P 500 ca M, Nikkei 225 ca sn chng khon Tokyo, Kospi ca trung tm giao dch chng khon Hn Quc, VNIndex ca Vit Nam Cch thc tnh ton, thit lp, ngha v thng tin m ch s chng khon cung cp cho cc nh u t nh th no s c nhm 4, lp ti chnh ngn hng K20E lm r trong chuyn : Ch s chng khon Bi vit c thc hin trn c s tm hiu v nghin cu nn khng trnh khi nhng hn ch, nhm 4 rt mong nhn c s nhn xt ca c gio. Chng em xin chn thnh cm n c.

I. Tm hiu chung v ch s chng khon: 1. nh ngha: Ch s th trng chng khon l mt gi tr thng k phn nh tnh hnh ca th trng c phiu. Ch s th trng chng khon c tng hp t danh mc cc c phiu theo phng php tnh nht nh. Thng thng, danh mc s bao gm cc c phiu c nhng im chung nh cng nim yt ti mt s giao dch, cng ngnh hay cng mc vn ha th trng. Cc ch s chng khon ny c th do S giao dch chng khon nh ra ( v d Vn-Index - y Ban chng khon nh nc), cng c th do hng thng tin (V d: Nikkei 225- Thi bo kinh t Nht) hay mt th ch ti chnh no nh ra (V d: Hang Seng index- Ngn hng Hang Seng). 2. Cch chn r chng khon tnh ch s chng khon: Ch s chng khon khng c tnh da trn ton b chng khon trn th trng nn m ch c tnh da trn nhng c phiu tiu biu, c kh nng i din chung cho xu hng ca c th trng . C th, trn sn chng khon New York c hn 3,000 c phiu, nhng ch s trung bnh cng nghip Dow Jones ch c tnh ton da trn gi c phiu ca 30 cng ty ln nht trn sn chng khon ny hay Nikkei 225 gm 225 c phiu blue-chip i in cho cc cng ty Nht, S&P 500 gm c phiu ca 500 cng ty c mc vn ha th trng ln nht ca M 3. Cng thc tnh: 3.1. Phng php Passcher:

Ch s gi bnh qun Passcher l ch s gi bnh qun gia quyn gi tr vi quyn s l s lng chng khon nim yt thi k tnh ton. Kt qu tnh s ph thuc vo c cu quyn s thi k tnh ton:

qt pt I p = ------------ qt po Trong : Ip pt po qt : L ch s gi Passcher : L gi thi k t : L gi thi k gc : L khi lng (quyn s) thi im tnh ton ( t )

hoc c cu ca khi lng thi im tnh ton. Cc ch s p dng phng php ny c th k n: KOSPI (Hn quc); S&P500(M); FT-SE 100 (Anh) ; TOPIX (Nht) ; CAC (Php); TSE (i loan); Hangseng (Hng cng); VnIndex ca Vit Nam 3.2. Phng php Laspeyres:

Ch s gi bnh qun Laspeyres l ch s gi bnh qun gia quyn gi tr, ly quyn s l s c phiu nim yt thi k gc. Nh vy kt qu tnh s ph thuc vo c cu quyn s thi k gc: qo pt

I l = ------------ qo po Trong : I L pt po qo : L ch s gi bnh qun Laspeyres : L gi thi k bo co : L gi thi k gc : L khi lng (quyn s) thi k gc hoc c cu

ca khi lng c (s lng c phiu nim yt) thi k gc C t nc p dng phng php ny, l ch s FAZ, DAX ca c 3.3. Ch s gi bnh qun Fisher:

Ch s gi bnh qun Fisher l ch s gi bnh qun nhn gia ch s gi Passcher v ch s gi Laspayres: Phng php ny trung ho c yu im ca hai phng php trn, tc l gi tr ch s tnh ton ra ph thuc vo quyn s ca c 2 thi k: K gc v k tnh ton

IF Trong :

IP x I L

I F : L ch s gi Fisher IP : L ch s gi Passche I L : L ch s gi bnh qun Laspeyres

3.4.

Phng php s bnh qun gin n: pi

Ip = ------------n Trong : I p l gi bnh qun;

Pi l gi Chng khon i; n l s lng chng khon a vo tnh ton. Cc ch s h Dow Jone ca M; Nikkei 225 ca Nht; MBI ca p dng phng php ny. Phng php ny s tt khi mc gi ca cc c phiu tham gia nim yt kh ng u, hay lch chun ( ) ca n thp.

3.5.

Phng php bnh qun nhn gin n:

I p = Pi Phng php ny c s dng khi lch chun kh cao, ( ) cao. Cc ch s: Value line (M); FT-30 (Anh) p dng phng php bnh qun nhn gin n ny. 4. ngha ca ch s chng khon: Ch s chng khon thng c coi nh nhp p ca th trng m n i din. Khi ch s chng khon tng iu ng ngha vi vic th trng ang ln v ngc li. C nhiu cch tnh ch s chng khon khc nhau nhng mi mt ch s chng khon u n cha thng tin v tnh trng th trng chng khon ti thi im tnh. Mi ch s chng khon ng ring l khng mang n thng tin hu

ch cho nh u t, ch s chng khon phi c theo di trong c thi k, cho thy s thay i ca c thi k, thng qua nh u t c th nhn nhn c xu th, xu hng ca th trng, t c cc hot ng u t hiu qu. V d,ch s trung bnh cng nghip Dow Jones ngy 21/12/2011
Last: Change: Open: High: Low: Volume:

12,107.74

+4.16
Percent Change:

12,103.58
Yield:

12,119.70
P/E Ratio:

11,999.44
52 Week Range:

163,247,818

+0.03%

n/a

n/a

10,404.49 to 12,876.00

Ch s chng khon Dow Jones ngy 21/12/2011 l 12,107.74. Nu ch c ring thng tin ny nh u t s khng th bit c xu hng ca th trng. t trong tng quan vi ch s ca ngy trc cho thy, ch s DJ tng 4.16 im, tng ng 0.03%, so vi 2 ngy trc th y l phin th 2 lin tip tng im sau t gim mnh 0.84% hm u tun. II. Phn tch mt s ch s chng khon tiu biu: 1. Ch s trung bnh cng nghip Dow Jones ( Dow Jones Industrial Average)

1.1.

S hnh thnh ch s trung bnh cng nghip Dow Jones:

Ch s trung bnh cng nghip Dow Jones l ch s chng khon lu i th 2 sau Ch s trung bnh vn ti Dow Jones v c bit n rng ri nht. Ch s chng khon Dow Jones ra i nm 1896 vi c phiu ca 12 cng ty. Tri qua nhiu ln thay i, t 1928 ch s chng khon Dow Jones i din cho 30 cng ty ln v c th lc ln nht ti M, i din cho nhiu lnh vc ca nn kinh t. Nhm 30 cng ty ny thng xuyn c s thay i. Khi cng ty no sa st n khng tiu chun c th c xp vo Top 30 ca cc c phiu Blue Chip, cng ty lp tc s b thay th bng mt cng ty khc ang trn tng trng. Ban u, ch s trung bnh cng nghip Dow Jones c tnh bng tng gi ca tng c phiu chia cho tng s cng ty, lc ny l 12 cng ty. 1.2. qun gin n V d: Th trng c 2 loi c phiu A: Gi: $15/ 1 c phiu B: Gi: $20/1 c phiu Ch s chng khon th trng lc ny s l: (15+20)/2=17.5. Ch s chng khon s thay i khi c nhng ng thi thay i v gi, gi tng lm ch s chng khon tng v ngc li. Ngy tnh u tin, ngy 26/1/1896, ch s trung bnh cng nghip Dow Jones t 40.94 USD. 1.3. S chia Dow Jones: Cch tnh ny tr nn phc tp khi c s chia tch c phn, sp nhp, rt lui hay gia nhp th trng. V d: Cng ty B chia tch c phn v gi mi c phn lc ny l $10. Cng thc tnh: Ch s trung bnh cng nghip Dow Jones c tnh theo phng php bnh

Ch s chng khon th trng lc ny s l: (15+10)/2=12.5 iu ny khng phn nh ng tnh hnh th trng lc ny bi khng c s st gim no. Tng gi tr m nh u t ang nm gi khng i, ch c s thay i n gi c phiu v gi tr c phiu nh u t ang nm gi. Lc ny c s thay i v gi chng khon, nhng gi tr m nh u t ang nm gi khng h c s thay i. m bo ch s chng khon phn nh ng gi tr th trng, gi tr m nh u t ang nm gi, ch s chng khon c tnh nh sau: Ch s chng khon th trng = (15+10*2)/2=17.5 Tuy nhin trn th trng khng ch c 2 loai c phiu, khi cc loi c phiu ng thi b nh hng bi s xc nhp, chia tch th cch tnh tr nn phc tp hn nhiu. S chia dow ra i nhm khc phc nhc im ca cch tnh ny. Cng thc tnh s chia Dow: S chia Dow mi = S chia Dow c * (Tng mi / Tng C) Theo V d trn: s chia Dow c: 2; tng c: $ 35; tng mi: $25 S chia Dow mi = 2*(25/35)=10/7 Ch s chng khon trn th trng lc ny = 25:10/7= 17.5

Nh vy, s chia Dow gip iu chnh tc ng ca vic chia, tch, xc nhp n ch s chng khon Dow Jones, phn nh ng ng thi ca gi (s thay i gi), m bo tnh lin tc v thng tin ca ch s chng khon ny. Khi c s iu chnh ca s chia Dow Jones, nhm m bo gi tr ban u, phn nh m nh u t nm gi trc v sau khi c s chia tch xc nhp th ch s chng khon Dow Jones khng n thun cn l trung bnh n gi ca tt c c phiu trn th trng nh cng thc ban u na. Trn thc t, s chia Dow Jones c cp nht hng ngy bi bo ph Wall. 1.4. S liu thc t: Ch s trung bnh cng nghip Dow Jones ngy 21/12/2011

Last:

Change:

Open:

High:

Low:

Volume:

12,107.74

+4.16
Percent Change:

12,103.58
Yield:

12,119.70
P/E Ratio:

11,999.44
52 Week Range:

163,247,818

+0.03%

n/a

n/a

10,404.49 to 12,876.00

Ch s trung bnh cng nghip Dow Jones ti thi im ng ca ngy 21/12/2011 l 12,107.74, tng 4.16 im tng ng 0.03% so vi thi im ng ca ngy 20/12/2011 (12,103.58). S chia Dow Jones ngy 21/12/2011 c cng b l 0.132129493. Tng gi c phiu ca 30 cng ty trong ngy 21/12 l

$1599.79( 12,103.58*0.132129493). Trung bnh gi c phiu ca 30 cng ty trong ngy 21/12 l (1599.79/30). Tng khi lng giao dch trong ngy l $163,247,818. Trong ngy ch s trung bnh cng nghip Dow Jones c tnh lin tc theo pht. $53.33

Ch s trung bnh cng nghip Dow Jones nm 2011

2. Ch s chng khon Vn-index: 2.1. S hnh thnh:

2.2.

Cng thc tnh:

Ch s chng khon Vn- index theo phng php Passcher, cn c vo gi tr th trng ca tt c c phiu c nim yt trn th trng hay cn gi l phng php bnh qun vn ha th trng.

Vn-Index = Trong : P1i: Gi hin hnh ca c phiu i Q1i: Khi lng ang lu hnh (khi lng nim yt) ca c phiu i P0i: Gi ca c phiu i thi k gc Khi trn th trng xy ra trng hp nim yt mi hay t chc nim yt tin hnh tng vn, h s chia s c iu chnh nh sau:

D1 =

Trong : D1: H s chia mi D0: H s chia c

V1: Tng gi tr hin hnh ca cc c phiu nim yt:

V1 = AV: Gi tr iu chnh c phiu Khi hu nim yt hay t chc nim yt tin hnh gim vn, h s chia mi s c tnh nh sau:

D1 = 2.3. S liu thc t

3. Mt s ch s chng khon khc: 3.1. 3.2. Ch s Nikkei 225 Ch s Hang Seng

I.

Ch s chng khon l gi

1. nh ngha 2. Cng thc tnh, u, nhc im ca tng cch tnh 3. Tc ng ca cc yu t khi c s chia tch, xc nhp .. II. Phn tch mt s ch s chng khon tiu biu: 1. Dow Jones 2. Vn-index 3. Nikkei 225 III. Phn tch qu trnh bin ng ca mt loai ch s chng khon qua cc thi k