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B mn kinh t lng

lng

Bi bo co thc hnh kinh t

B TI CHNH
HC VIN TI CHNH

Ging vin hng dn: TS. Phm Th Thng.


Thnh vin:

Nguyn Chiu.
Nguyn Phng.
ng Bch.
Phm Ngc.

By Econometric Group

B mn kinh t lng
lng

Bi bo co thc hnh kinh t

BO CO
THC HNH KINH T LNG
Vn nghin cu
S ph thuc ca nhp khu vo tng thu nhp quc dn v t gi hi
oi ca Hn Quc t nm 1992 n nm 2007.

C s l lun
Cn cn thng mi l mt trong nhng ch tiu quan trng m m i
quc gia u quan tm, c bit trong nn kinh t m ca h i nh p qu c
t. Cn cn thng mi c quyt nh bi 2 nhn t quan trng l xu t
khu v nhp khu. Trong nhng nm va qua Hn Quc khng ngng
ch trng tng xut nhp khu thc y kinh t pht trin m t khc
Hn Quc l mt quc gia c t gi hi oi th ni V vy m nhm em
quyt nh la chn nghin cu mc nh hng ca tng thu nh p qu c
dn v t gi hi oi ti nhp khu. T gip cc nh ho ch nh a
ra nhng quyt nh kinh t ph hp.
Da trn c s thu thp s liu v nhp khu, tng thu nh p qu c
dn v t gi hi oi ca Hn Quc t nm 1992 n nm 2007:

By Econometric Group

B mn kinh t lng
lng

Bi bo co thc hnh kinh t

Ta c bng s liu sau:

Nm

X2

X3

1992

81775

257525

780.7

1993

83800

290676

802.7

1994

102348

340208

803.4

1995

135119

398838

771.3

1996

150339

448596

804.5

1997

144616

491135

951.3

1998

93282

484103

1401.4

1999

119752

529500

1188.8

2000

160481

603236

1131.0

2001

141098

651415

1291.0

2002

152126

720539

1251.1

2003

178827

767114

1191.6

2004

224463

826893

1145.3

2005

261238

865241

1024.1

2006

309383

908744

954.8

2007

356846

975013

929.3

Trong : Y l Nhp khu


(vt: t Won)

X2 Tng thu
nhp quc ni (vt: t Won)
X3 l T gi hi oi
Won Hn Quc/ 1 la M (Won/1
USD) (vt: Won)
Ngun: Ngn hng pht trin chu
ADB.

http://www.adb.org/Documents/Books/Key_Indicators/2009/pdf/kor.pdf

By Econometric Group

B mn kinh t lng
lng

Bi bo co thc hnh kinh t

I. M hnh hi quy
T nhng kin thc h c c nghin c u mn kinh t
hc v m v kinh t hc vi m, chng ta bit rng t ng thu nh p
quc dn v t gi hi oi l 2 nhn t c quy t nh quan tr ng n
nhp khu. T l thuyt kinh t ta c:

eu

Y=

Ly log 2 v ta c :

M hnh hi quy tng th


PRM: log(Yi)=

X2i) +

log(X3i) + Ui

Trong : Yi l gi tr quan st k th i.
Ui l yu t ngu nhin.

II. c lng cc tham s trong m hnh hi quy.


Hm hi quy mu c dng:
4

By Econometric Group

B mn kinh t lng
lng

Bi bo co thc hnh kinh t

SRM:log(

log(X2i) +

log(X3i) + ei

Trong :
l cc c lng im ca cc h s hi
quy tng th; ei l c lng im ca Ui.
Ta th y m hnh trn l tuy n tnh nn c th s d ng ph ng php bnh
phng nh nht. Vi s liu bng s liu, bng Eviews thu c kt qu:

Bo co 1.
Dependent Variable: LOG(Y)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 06/01/11 Time: 10:10
Sample: 1992 2007
Included observations: 16

Variable

Coefficient Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

LOG(X2)
LOG(X3)
C

1.263886
-1.133685
3.063610

0.036437
0.074919
0.473144

34.68725
-15.13217
6.475004

0.0000
0.0000
0.0000

R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson stat

0.989521
0.987908
0.048513
0.030596
27.37277
1.435805

Mean dependent var


S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

11.93930
0.441182
-3.046596
-2.901736
613.7603
0.000000

By Econometric Group

B mn kinh t lng
lng

Bi bo co thc hnh kinh t

Phn d ei thu c t kt qu hi quy m hnh nh sau:

T kt qu bng Eviews ta c:
=3.063610,

=1.263886,

= -1.133685

Ta c hm hi quy mu:
log(

=3.063610 +1.263886 log(X2) -1.133685log(X3i)

a. Kim nh gi thuyt v cc h s hi quy.


i. kim nh h s vi

Ta dng cp kim nh gii thuyt sau:


H0:

=0

H1:
Min bc b:
Ta c:

= {t:

0
>

= 34.68725.

Vi tin cy l 1- = 0.95 ta c:
6

}.

= 2.16.
By Econometric Group

B mn kinh t lng
lng

Bi bo co thc hnh kinh t

. Vy bc b gi thuyt H0, chp nhn gi thuyt H1.

Ta c:

Nh vy tc tng xut khu c nh hng n tc tng trng


ca tng mc lu chuyn hng ho xut nhp khu.
ii. Kim nh gi thuyt i vi

Ta kim nh cp gi thuyt:
H0:

H1:

Min bc b: W = {t:

=0
0
>

Ta c: Tqs = -15.13217 =>

}
= 15.13217

Vi tin cy l 1- = 0.95 ta c:

= 2.16

. Vy bc b gi thuyt H0, chp nhn gi thuyt H1.

Ta c:

Nh vy tc tng nhp khu c nh hng n tc tng trng ca


tng mc lu chuyn hng ho xut nhp khu.

b. Kim nh s ph hp ca hm hi quy
Ta kim nh cp gi thuyt:
H0: R2 = 0 ( hm hi quy khng ph hp)
H1 : R2

0 ( hm hi quy ph hp)

Tiu chun kim nh:


F=
Min bc b: W = {F: Fqs > F (k-1; n-k)
Ta c: Fqs = 613.7603
7

By Econometric Group

B mn kinh t lng
lng

Bi bo co thc hnh kinh t

Vi tin cy 1- = 0.95 ta c: F0.05(2;13) = 3.81

Fqs > F0.05(2;13). Vy bc b gi thuyt H0, chp nhn gi


thuyt H1.

Kt lun: hm hi quy ph hp.

III. Cc khuyt tt ca m hnh.


1)Kim nh cc bin b st kim nh Ramsey.
Bng phn mm Eviews ta thu c kt qu sau:
Bo co 2.
Ramsey RESET Test:
F-statistic
Log likelihood ratio

2.020656
2.490001

Prob. F(1,12)
Prob. Chi-Square(1)

0.180637
0.114572

Test Equation:
Dependent Variable: LOG(Y)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 06/01/11 Time: 10:14
Sample: 1992 2007
Included observations: 16
Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

LOG(X2)
LOG(X3)
C
FITTED^2

-1.455346
1.332656
9.186797
0.089572

1.913257
1.736529
4.331586
0.063013

-0.760665
0.767425
2.120885
1.421498

0.4615
0.4577
0.0554
0.1806

R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson stat

0.991031
0.988789
0.046714
0.026187
28.61777
1.576337

Mean dependent var


S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

11.93930
0.441182
-3.077221
-2.884074
441.9721
0.000000

Kim nh cp gi thuyt
8

By Econometric Group

B mn kinh t lng
lng

Bi bo co thc hnh kinh t


H0: m hnh khng b st bin thch hp
H1: m hnh b st bin thch hp.

Tiu chun kim nh:


F=

F(1;n-4)

Min bc b: W = {F: F >F (1;n-4)}


Gi tr ca thng k quan st: Fqs= 2.020656
Vi tin cy: 1- = 0.95 ta c: F0.05(1; 12) = 4.75
Fqs khng thuc min bc b gi thuyt nn cha c c s bc b
gi thuyt H0.

Vy m hnh khng b st bin hay ni cch khc m hnh ch nh ng.

2) Hin tng t tng quan.


a)Pht hin t tng quan bng kim nh Durbin-Watson.
Theo kt qu bo co 1 ta c: dqs = 1.435805
Vi tin cy 1- = 0.95 v k = k-1= 3-1 = 2.
Suy ra vi k = 2; n=16;

= 0.05 th dL = 0.982; dU = 1.539.

Suy ra dL < dqs< dU.


Vy cha c kt lun v t tng quan trong m hnh.
b) Pht hin hin tng t tng quan bng kim nh BreuschGodfrey(BG).
pht hin t tng quan bc 1
Bng phn mm Eviews ta thu c kt qu sau:

By Econometric Group

B mn kinh t lng
lng

Bi bo co thc hnh kinh t

Bo co 3.
Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test:
F-statistic
Obs*R-squared

0.663730
0.838590

Prob. F(1,12)
Prob. Chi-Square(1)

0.431118
0.359800

Test Equation:
Dependent Variable: RESID
Method: Least Squares
Date: 06/01/11 Time: 10:16
Sample: 1992 2007
Included observations: 16
Presample missing value lagged residuals set to zero.
Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

LOG(X2)
LOG(X3)
C
RESID(-1)

0.008233
-0.018788
0.021653
0.248110

0.038276
0.079333
0.480121
0.304543

0.215110
-0.236823
0.045099
0.814696

0.8333
0.8168
0.9648
0.4311

R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson stat

0.052412
-0.184485
0.049153
0.028992
27.80345
1.792997

T bo co ta thu c:

Mean dependent var


S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

-2.44E-15
0.045163
-2.975432
-2.782284
0.221243
0.879787

= 0.838590

Kim nh cp gi thuyt:
H0: m hnh khng c hin tng t tng quan.
H1: m hnh c hin tng t tng quan.
10

By Econometric Group

B mn kinh t lng
lng

Bi bo co thc hnh kinh t

Tiu chun kim nh:

= (n-2)R2

Min bc b gi thuyt: W = {

Vi tin cy 1- = 0.95 ta c:
<

(p)
>

(p)}

= 3.84146

nn cha c c s bc b gi thuyt H0.

Vy khng c hin tng t tng quan bc 1.

Pht hin t tng quan bc 2

Bng phn mm Eviews ta thu c kt qu sau:

Bo co 4:
Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test:
F-statistic
Obs*R-squared

0.713442
1.837159

Prob. F(2,11)
Prob. Chi-Square(2)

0.511290
0.399086

Test Equation:
Dependent Variable: RESID
Method: Least Squares
Date: 06/01/11 Time: 00:33
Sample: 1992 2007
Included observations: 16
Presample missing value lagged residuals set to zero.
Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

LOG(X2)
LOG(X3)
C
RESID(-1)
RESID(-2)

-0.000761
-0.000485
0.013124
0.277021
-0.275289

0.039965
0.082738
0.484772
0.309179
0.312593

-0.019034
-0.005865
0.027072
0.895989
-0.880664

0.9852
0.9954
0.9789
0.3894
0.3973

R-squared
Adjusted R-squared

11

0.114822
-0.207060

Mean dependent var


S.D. dependent var

-2.44E-15
0.045163

By Econometric Group

B mn kinh t lng
lng

Bi bo co thc hnh kinh t

S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson stat

0.049619
0.027083
28.34851
1.881212

Theo bo co ta c:

Akaike info criterion


Schwarz criterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

-2.918563
-2.677129
0.356721
0.834181

= 1.837159; p = 2.

Kim nh cp gi thuyt:
H0: m hnh khng c hin tng t tng quan.
H1: m hnh c hin tng t tng quan.
Tiu chun kim nh: :

= (n-2)R2

Min bc b gi thuyt: W = {

Vi tin cy 1- = 0.95 ta c:
Suy ra

<

(p)
>

(p)}

= 5.99147

nn cha c c s bc b gi thuyt H0.

Vy khng c hin tng t tng quan bc 2.


Kt lun: m hnh khng c hin tng t tng quan.

c. Phng sai sai s thay i


Pht hin phng sai sai s thay i da vo kim nh White.
M hnh hi quy:
ei= 1 + 2

+ 3

+ 4

+ 5

+ 6

bng phn mm Eview ta thu c kt qu sau:


Bo co 5:
White Heteroskedasticity Test:
F-statistic
Obs*R-squared

12

0.704739
4.168912

Prob. F(5,10)
Prob. Chi-Square(5)

0.632952
0.525362

By Econometric Group

B mn kinh t lng
lng

Bi bo co thc hnh kinh t

Test Equation:
Dependent Variable: RESID^2
Method: Least Squares
Date: 06/01/11 Time: 00:34
Sample: 1992 2007
Included observations: 16
Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

C
LOG(X2)
(LOG(X2))^2
(LOG(X2))*(LOG(X3))
LOG(X3)
(LOG(X3))^2

1.651520
-0.145750
0.000461
0.019407
-0.206674
-0.003119

2.035678
0.135255
0.005497
0.016877
0.500153
0.031482

0.811287
-1.077590
0.083852
1.149920
-0.413222
-0.099078

0.4361
0.3065
0.9348
0.2769
0.6882
0.9230

R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson stat

Ta thu c

0.260557
-0.109164
0.002495
6.23E-05
76.94973
2.842167

= 0.260557;

Mean dependent var


S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

0.001912
0.002369
-8.868717
-8.578996
0.704739
0.632952

=4.168912

Kim nh cp gi thuyt:
: M hnh c phng sai sai s ng u.
: M hnh c phng sai sai s khng ng u.
Dng tiu chun kim nh:

=nR2 ~

Trong m = 5 l s bin gii thch trong m hnh


Min bc b:
Vi mc ngha

={

>
, ta c

}
=4.168912<

= 11.0705

khng thuc min bc b v th cha c c s bc b H 0 vy m

hnh c phng sai sai s ng u.

d. Hin tng a cng tuyn


Pht hin hin tng a cng tuyn bng phng php Theil:
13

By Econometric Group

B mn kinh t lng
lng

Bi bo co thc hnh kinh t

Hi quy m hnh :
Log (Yi) =
+ log(X2) + Vi
Bng phn mm Eviews ta c:

Bo co 6:
Dependent Variable: LOG(Y)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 06/01/11 Time: 00:46
Sample: 1992 2007
Included observations: 16
Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

LOG(X2)
C

0.958131
-0.732092

0.126058
1.667895

7.600711
-0.438932

0.0000
0.6674

R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson stat

14

0.804935
0.791001
0.201692
0.569516
3.981437
0.677603

Mean dependent var


S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

11.93930
0.441182
-0.247680
-0.151106
57.77081
0.000002

By Econometric Group

B mn kinh t lng
lng

Bi bo co thc hnh kinh t

Hi quy m hnh:
log(Yi) =
+ log(X3) + Vi
Bng phn mm Eviews ta c:
Bo co 7:
Dependent Variable: LOG(Y)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 06/01/11 Time: 00:49
Sample: 1992 2007
Included observations: 16
Variable

Coefficient

Std. Error

t-Statistic

Prob.

LOG(X3)
C

0.307421
9.813506

0.581079
4.019710

0.529052
2.441347

0.6051
0.0285

R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson stat

0.019601
-0.050428
0.452169
2.862391
-8.935564
0.298926

Mean dependent var


S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

Tnh o Theil: m= R2 [(R2 Ta c: R2 = 0.989521 ;

) + ( R2 -

= 0.804935 ;

11.93930
0.441182
1.366945
1.463519
0.279896
0.605057

= 0.019601

m = -0.164985 ~ 0

15

Vy coi nh chp nhn m hnh khng c a cng tuyn.

By Econometric Group

B mn kinh t lng
lng

e.

Bi bo co thc hnh kinh t

Kim nh tnh phn phi ca sai s ngu nhin


Bng kt qu Eviews ta thu c kt qu sau:
6

Series: Residuals
Sample 1992 2007
Observations 16

5
4
3
2
1
0
-0.10

-0.05

-0.00

Mean
Median
Maximum
Minimum
Std. Dev.
Skewness
Kurtosis

-2.44e-15
-0.002957
0.070693
-0.092942
0.045163
-0.401117
2.439378

Jarque-Bera
Probability

0.638583
0.726664

0.05

T kt qu bo co, ta thu c JB = 0.638583


Kim nh cp gi thuyt:
Ho: sai s ngu nhin c phn phi chun.
H1: sai s ngu nhin khng c phn phi chun.
2
2

(
K

3)
S

~
Tiu chun kim nh: JB = n +

6
24

2(2)

S l h s nhn, K l h s bt i xng.
Min bc b W = { JB: JB >
Vi

= 0.05 ta c

Ta c JBqs = 0.638583 <

= 5.9915
= 5.9915

Cha c c s bc b gi thuyt Ho v vy sai s ngu nhin c phn


phi chun.

16

By Econometric Group

B mn kinh t lng
lng

Bi bo co thc hnh kinh t

IV. Phn tch v kt lun v tnh quy lut trong s thay i


gi tr cc bin trong m hnh.
1) Khi mt bin c lp thay i th bin ph thuc thay i th
no?
Theo bo co 1 v hm hi quy mu ta c nhn xt nh sau:
= 1.263886 cho bit khi tng Thu nhp quc dn tng 1% th nh p
khu tng 1.263886 khi t gi hi oi khng i.
= -1.133685 cho bit khi t gi hi oi tng 1% th nhp kh u gim
1.133685% trong khi tng thu nhp quc dn khng i.
,

u c ngha kinh t.

T bo co 1 ta thu c R2 = 0.989521 nh vy s bin ng ca tng


thu nhp quc dn v t gi hi oi s gii thch c 98,9521% s bin
ng ca nhp khu.

2) Nu tng thu nhp quc dn tng 1% khi t gi hi oi khng


i th nhp khu tng trong khong, tng ti thiu, tng ti a
l bao nhiu?
a)

Tng trong khong:

- Se(
Trong Se(

1.18518208

) =0.036437 ;

+ Se(

=2.16

1.34258992

Nh vy khi tng thu nhp quc dn tng 1% m t gi h i oi khng


i
th
nhp
khu
trung
bnh
tng
trong
khong
(1.18518208;1.34258992)%.

17

By Econometric Group

B mn kinh t lng
lng

Bi bo co thc hnh kinh t

b) Tng ti thiu:

- Se(
Thay s ta c

1.199356

Nh vy khi tng thu nhp quc dn tng 1% v t gi hi oi khng


i v nhp khu trung bnh tng ti thiu l 1.199356%.

c) Tng ti a:

+ Se(
Thay s ta c:

1.328416%

Nh vy khi tng thu nhp quc dn tng 1% v t gi hi oi khng


i v nhp khu trung bnh tng ti a l 1.328416%

f. Nu t gi hi oi tng 1% khi tng thu nhp quc dn


khng i th nhp khu gim trong khong, gim ti
thiu, gim ti a l bao nhiu?
a)

Gim trong khong

- Se(
Trong Se(

18

-1.29551

) =0.074919;

+ Se(

=2.16

-0.97186

By Econometric Group

B mn kinh t lng
lng

Bi bo co thc hnh kinh t

Nh vy t gi hi oi tng 1% m tng thu nhp quc dn khng


i th nhp khu trung bnh gim trong khong (0.97186 ; 1.29551)%.

b)

Gim ti thiu:

+ Se(
Thay s ta c

-1.0095

Nh vy khi t gi hi oi tng 1% v t ng thu nh p qu c dn khng


i th nhp khu trung bnh gim ti thiu l 1.0095%.

c)

Gim ti a:

- Se(
Thay s ta c:

)
- 1.26642

Khi t gi hi oi tng 1% v tng thu nhp quc dn khng


i th nhp khu trung bnh gim ti a l 1.26642.

g. S bin ng ca bin ph thuc o bng phng sai do


cc yu t ngu nhin.
a)

19

Tm khong tin cy ca

By Econometric Group

B mn kinh t lng
lng

Trong

Bi bo co thc hnh kinh t

= 0.0485132;

(16-3) = 24.7256 ;

(16-3)= 5.0088.
Thay s vo ta c:
0.0012374

0.00610845

Vy khi cc yu t ngu nhin thay i th nhp khu trung bnh


thay i trong khong (0.0012374 0.00610845 ).

b)

Ta tm khong tin cy bn tri

Thay s ta c kt qu

0.00519289

Vy khi cc yu t ngu nhin thay i th nh p kh u trung bnh


tng ti a l 0.00519289%.

c) Ta tm khong tin cy bn phi

Thay s ta c kt qu: 0.0013682

Vy khi cc yu t ngu nhin thay i th nhp khu trung bnh tng


ti thiu l 0.0013682%.
20

By Econometric Group

B mn kinh t lng
lng

Bi bo co thc hnh kinh t

V. D bo v ngha.
1)D bo.
a) D bo gi tr trung bnh ca nhp khu.

400000

Forecast: YF
Actual: Y
Forecast sample: 1992 2007
Included observations: 16

350000
300000

Root Mean Squared Error


Mean Absolute Error
Mean Abs. Percent Error
Theil Inequality Coefficient
Bias Proportion
Variance Proportion
Covariance Proportion

250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

7244.010
5603.044
3.534735
0.019582
0.003255
0.109621
0.887124

2006

YF

21

By Econometric Group

B mn kinh t lng
lng

Bi bo co thc hnh kinh t

a) So snh s liu thc t Y v s liu d bo YF


obs
Y
1992
81775
1993
83800
1994 102348
1995 135119
1996 150339
1997 144616
1998
93282
1999 119752
2000 160481
2001 141098
2002 152126
2003 178827
2004 224463
2005 261238
2006 309383
2007 356846

YF
77625.21
87657.23
106838.2
136797
151307.2
140302.4
88799.97
119844.8
149527.8
141825
166942.8
190958.5
219604.1
263994.2
304101.7
342754

Nhn xt: qua so snh s liu thc t v s liu d bo, ta thy s liu
d bo gn vi s liu thc t nn ta c th dung m hnh ny d bo
cho tng lai.

22

By Econometric Group

B mn kinh t lng
lng

Bi bo co thc hnh kinh t

b) D bo mc nhp khu n nm 2010.


S liu d bo tng thu nhp quc dn v t gi h i oi nm 2008, 2009,
2010 nh sau:
nm
X2
200
8
986730
200
100723
9
3
201
120757
0
9
Dng Eviews d bo ta c kt qu sau:
500000

X3
1242.3
1021.5
989.7

Forecast: YF
Actual: Y
Forecast sample: 1992 2010
Included observations: 16

400000
300000

Root Mean Squared Error


Mean Absolute Error
Mean Abs. Percent Error
Theil Inequality Coefficient
Bias Proportion
Variance Proportion
Covariance Proportion

200000
100000

7244.010
5603.044
3.534735
0.019582
0.003255
0.109621
0.887124

0
92

94

96

98

00

02

04

06

08

10

YF

Kt lun: Da vo th ta thy n nm 2010 sn lng nhp khu


trung bnh ca Hn Quc tng.

23

By Econometric Group

B mn kinh t lng
lng

Bi bo co thc hnh kinh t

2) ngha.
Vic xy dng m hnh ny l gip cc nh hoch nh chnh sch
thng mi xut nhp khu a ra nhng quyt nh chnh xc nht
mang lai hiu qu nht cho quc gia. Mt khc, t m hnh trn ta cng c
th thy mc nh hng ca nhn t tng sn ph m quc ni, t gi
hi oi v nhng nhn t khc c nh hng n nhp khuca Hn
Quc.
Tng sn phm quc ni tc ng rt mnh n nhp khu t nhng
chi tiu chnh ph, chi tiu h nh... Nh vy, chnh ph cn khuy n
khch ngi dn tiu dng hng ni gim mc nh h ng ca tng
sn phm quc ni n nhp khu. Nhng, do khng th gim nhp
khu bng cch gim tng sn phm quc ni nn cn ch n vic
iu chnh hp l t gi hi oi cho ph hp, nu cn thi t c th s
dng chnh sch bo h mu dch...

24

By Econometric Group

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