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Tnh trng la ha ca nn kinh t thng thng din ra trong mt thp k. N c th xy ra mt vi nc vi nhiu nguyn nhn khc nhau nh l s phn ng trong giai an m nn kinh t mt cn bng v lm pht cao, iu ny c th lm mt t tin vo ng ni t. Vit Nam, ngi tiu dng c thi quen lu i l thch nm gi USD do ng tin ny c cm nhn l n nh. D nh nc c nhiu n lc, thi quen ny kh c th thay i, thm ch trong trng hp ng la suy yu ko di so vi cc ng ngoi t chnh khc trn th gii, nh trong vi nm gn y.
Thng 4, 2011
3. Vn ln n c no?
Theo thng k ca IMF, t l tin gi ngoi t Vit Nam trn tng lng cung tin (M2) ang gim dn t 30% trong nm 2000 xung khong 20% trong thng ging nm 2010. Mc d vy, rt c th t l tin gi ngoi t trn tng lng cung tin Vit Nam c th s tng tr li trong nm 2010 v u nm 2011 do cc ngn hng thng mi trong nc huy ng li sut mc qu cao (trn 6%/ nm, trong khi tin USD gi ti cc ngn hng nc ngoi sinh li thp hn 1%/nm) huy ng thm cc khan tin gi USD ngn hn nhm ti tr cho hat ng cho vay bng USD. Hnh biu bn di
Tng cung tin thc Vit Nam bao gm 2 loi tin t (tin ng v USD). SBV c th d dng kim sot cung tin ng bng vic hn ch tng trng tn dng, bng nghip v th trng m (OMO), iu chnh t l d tr bt buc, t s thanh ton, v/v Nhng SBV c t s kim sot i vi cung tin USD, bi v USD c th chy vo cc ngn hng trong nc t thng qua cc khon tin gi t nc ngoi tm kim li nhun t chnh lch li sut. y l mt dng ca dng tin nng ngn hn, l ngun tin rt khng n nh. Tin chy vo mt cch nhanh chng th cng c th chy ra mt cch nhanh khng km, khi li sut khng cn cao nh i vi ri ro ca nc s ti. Nu dng tin nng chy ra mt cch t ngt, n c th to ra ri ro thanh khon, nh tng xy ra i vi mt s nc khc trong khu vc trong cuc Khng hong ti chnh Chu trong nm 1997 1998 (Vietnam khng b nh hng trc tip trong cuc khng hong nm 1997 1998 do c t ngun tin nng chy vo, v th trng chng khon vn cha tn ti vo thi im . Nhng tnh th hin nay khc). Ri ro lm pht: Nu cung tin USD trong nc qu ln hoc tng trng qu nhanh cng c th tc ng thm vo t l lm pht ca nn kinh t. Bi v USD v tin ng thng c th hon i s dng trong nn kinh t hin nay, cung tin thc s l tng ca tt c USD v tin ng trong lu thng. C nhiu tin trong tay ngi tiu dng s dn n lm pht, do ngun tin nhiu nhng hng ha li t, dn n tnh trng bong bng ti sn. Ri ro i vi cc ngn hng: C ri ro ln i vi cc ngn hng nu cc ngn hng iu hnh tin t khng hp l thng qua mi tng quan gia ti sn v n (v d nh: cho vay
USD i vi cc khch hng trong nc khng bo m). Cc ngn hng hin nay sn sng tr li sut cao thu ht tin gi USD, bi v h c nhu cu cao trong vic cho cc khch hng vay bng USD, l nhng ngi mun gim chi ph li vay bng cch vay USD thay v VND. y l mt dng u c ca nhng ngi vay tin v rt ri ro cho h, trong trng hp tin ng mt gi, tr phi h c ngun thu bng USD tr cc khon n vay bng USD. Trn l thuyt th cc ngn hng ch nn cho vay bng USD cho cc khch hng c ngun thu bng USD. Tuy nhin, dng nh mt s ngn hng vn cho vay USD i vi cc khch hng khng c hoc khng ngun thu bng USD. iu to ra ri ro ln i vi cc ngn hng nu cc khch hng khng th tr cc khon vay v do nh hng ca vic mt gi ng tin, n by ti chnh th hin qua Bng cn i ti sn ca ngi vay s tng cao, to ra ri ro ln hn cho cc ngn hng. Ri ro t gi hi oi: la ha nn kinh t s gia tng nu ngi dn khng c nim tin vo gi tr ca ng tin v h s chuyn i cc ti sn yt gi bng ng ni t sang USD. Nu c mt lng nht nh ngi lm nh vy, n s lm t gi ng ni t gim. Tng t, nu cc doanh nghip vay bng USD khng c ngun thu bng USD tr n, lc h s phi mua USD bng ng ni t v t gi ng ni t cng s chu thm sc p trn th trng.
tin ng cng nn c cho php tng dn (mc d iu ny c th lm gim t l tng trng kinh t, v vy n cn c thc hin mt cch thn trng). Nhm khuyn khch ngi gi bn USD cho ngn hng ( i thnh tin ng) thay v gi tit kim (bng USD), khi ngi gi phi cm thy rng li sut h nhn c khi gi tin ng ln b p cho khon thu nhp tim nng m h s nhn c nu h gi bng tin USD H thng bo him tin gi nn c y mnh thm na cho cc khon tin gi bng ng (v ch tin ng ) Mc d tr ngoi t phi c tng ln. Theo l thuyt v ngoi hi cho rng, khi d tr ngoi hi ca mt nc b gim, ng tin nc s b mt gi. D tr ngoi hi ca Vit Nam gim dn trong thi gian 2-3 nm va qua (nhn vo biu bn trn) v hin ti ch tng ng mc 6 tun nhp khu, y c xem l mc nguy him. Trong nm 2005, mc d tr ngoi hi tng ng 12 tun nhp khu, v vy mc d tr ch cn mt na. Nguyn nhn chnh lm cho mc d tr ngoi hi gim mnh l do nhng khon thm ht ln trong nhng nm gn y. Vit Nam phi khn cp gim thm ht thng mi (v sau l d tr ngoi hi), nhm khi phc mc d tr ngoi hi cng nhanh cng tt. Tham kho: IMF Working Paper Dollarization in Cambodia, Causes and Policy Implications by Nombulelo Duma, Thng 3 , 2011.
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Thc hin bi Nhm Phn tch Lawrence Wolfe, Gim c Pht trin Kinh Doanh