DUY TR NN SN XUT LA BN VNG PGs.Ts. V Thnh Danh * MC TIU NGHIN CU Mc tiu ca ti l c lng hm cung cho sn xut la nc ta.

a. Cc mc tiu nghin cu c th l nh gi tng quan v h thng sn xut la, phn tch tc ng ca yu t mong i gi i vi quyt nh cung ca ngi nng dn sn xut la, c lng hm cung cho sn xut la, nh gi tc ng ca cc chnh sch ca Chnh ph i vi sn xut la, v a ra nhng gii php nhm m bo sn xut la bn vng. PHNG PHP NGHIN CU ti s dng hai m hnh cung cho sn xut la. u tin, m hnh cung ng iu chnh tng phn dng Nerlovian (Dynamic Adaptive Expectation Supply Response Model) trnh by sn lng la bi quyt nh cung ca ngi nng dn c da trn s mong i hay tin on v gi c cho php sai s trong mong i t nm trc c iu chnh li theo thng tin mi xut hin. y cc bin tr (t-1) v (t-2) c s dng trong m hnh trong khi xy dng m hnh cung. V vn autocorrelation trong m hnh cung loi ny, kt qu l nhiu phng php c lng c chnh sa c p dng tm ra mt m hnh c lng c gi tr chp nhn c. M hnh cung th hai c pht trin da trn gi thuyt mong i hp l (Rational Expectation Supply Response Model) vi mt h thng nhiu phng trnh (Simultaneous Equations System) bao gm hm cung, hm cu, d tr quc gia, xut khu, th ch chnh sch, cc chng trnh chnh ph, . Kt qu l mt m hnh cung rt gn (reduced form) c xc nh cho m hnh cung th hai ny. KT QU NGHIN CU ng gp ca yu t chnh sch th ch trong nng nghip Chng trnh i mi nng nghip nc ta c thc hin t nm 1980 nhng du mc thc s c ghi nhn bi Khon 10 trong nng nghip t nm 1986. Tc ng ca chnh sch ny i vi s thay i ca sn lng, din tch gieo trng v nng sut la cn c phn tch so snh trong giai on trc v sau thi gian i mi. Bng 1 cho thy tc ng ca chnh sch i mi th ch trong nng nghip ny thc s ng ghi nhn. Sn lng la bnh qun trong giai on 1987-2002 t gp hai ln so vi giai on

Khoa Kinh T v Qun Tr Kinh Doanh, Trng i Hc Cn Th. Email: vtdanh@ctu.edu.vn

1975-1986 mc d din tch gieo trng giai on sau ch tng khong 20%. Nguyn nhn l do nng sut la bnh qun hng nm trong giai on 1987-2002 tng hn 55% so vi giai on trc . V vy, ng gp ca chnh sch i mi nng nghip tht s n tng i vi s tng trng ca sn xut la. Bng 1. nh hng ca chnh sch i mi trong nng nghip i vi sn lng, din tch gieo trng v nng sut la giai on 1987-2002. SN LNG (TN) Intercept D86 S.E R
a 2 a

DIN TCH GIEO TRNG (HA)

NNG SUT (TN/HA) 2,281 (0.0000) 1,273 (0.0000) 0,448725 0.662

12586109 (0.0000) 11481315 (0.0000) 4818893 0.578

5503491 (0.0000) 1173709 (0.0000) 584608 0.490

Bin dummy, 1 cho giai on 1987-2002, 0 cho giai on trc.

Cc gi tr xc xut (P-values) c trnh by trong ngoc. Tuy nhin, nh hng ca yu t nh ch ny cn c phn tch mt cch d dt hn trong cc m hnh cung (Supply Response Model). Kt qu t Bng 1 ch trnh by lng tng bnh qun tuyt i gia hai giai on trc v sau chnh sch i mi. o lng mc tng bnh qun v t l tng trng bnh qun hng nm, mt ch tiu o lng cht lng tng trng hay tng trng mang yu t bn vng, Bng 2 trnh by kt qu c lng ca ba ch tiu tng ng c th hin trn. Nh vy, trong giai on 1975-2002, sn lng la tng bnh qun 1,035 triu tn mi nm vi t l tng bnh qun l 4,9% hng nm; din tch gieo trng tng bnh qun 123,5 ngn ha mi nm vi t l tng bnh qun l 1,9% hng nm; v nng sut la tng bnh qun 0,095 tn/ha mi nm vi t l tng bnh qun l 3% hng nm. Bng 2. nh hng ca chnh sch i mi nng nghip i vi t l tng trng ca sn lng, din tch gieo trng v nng sut la giai on 1987-2002. SN LNG (Q) (TN) DIN TCH (A) (HA) NNG SUT (YD) (TN/HA)

Q Intercept Ta D86 S.E R

a b 2 b

Log (Q) 16,042 (0.0000) 0,049 (0.0000) -0,052 (0.2365) 0.05852 0.977

A 4762489 (0.0000) 123500 (0.0000) -555296 (0.0007) 198516 0.941

Log (A) 15,405 (0.0000) 0,019 (0.0000) -0,079 (0.0010) 0.02932 0.948

YD 1,709 (0.0000) 0,095 (0.0000) -0,060 (0.5737) 0.14596 0.964

Log (YD) 0,637 (0.0000) 0,030 (0.0000) 0,028 (0.5455) 0.06176 0.945

6375248 (0.0000) 1035144 (0.0000) -3010694 (0.0065) 1395946 0.965

Bin time trend. Bin dummy, 1 cho giai on 1987-2002, 0 cho giai on trc.

Cc gi tr xc xut (P-values) c trnh by trong ngoc. S c mt ca bin dummy D86 gip chng ta gii thch nhng thay i xy ra i vi mc tng trng v t l tng trng bnh qun hng nm ca sn lng v din tch gieo trng la bnh qun hng nm trong m hnh cung v s thay i ca chnh sch th ch ny mc d n khng gip chng ta gii thch nhng thay i xy ra i vi mc tng trng bnh qun v t l tng trng bnh qun hng nm ca nng sut la 1 . Ngoi ra, khng nh mong i, nh hng nghch ca yu t nh ch D86 khng cho php chng ta kt lun rng sn xut la c th tng trng bn vng nh vo i mi chnh sch th ch trong nng nghip. Ni cch khc, chnh sch i mi nng nghip khng gip ko di v duy tr mc tng trng bn vng trong sn xut la nc ta trong nhng nm sau ny. Chng ta c th nghi ng rng c nhng yu t khc hn l nhng th ch trong chnh sch nng nghip gip duy tr mc tng trng bn vng. Cc yu t thuc v k thut v th trng c th l nhng yu t quan trng ng gp vo s tng trng bn vng ca khu vc sn xut la. Nh vy, vic phn tch tc ng ca cc yu t ny l cn thit nhn c nhng thng tin hp l cho cng vic hoch nh cc chnh sch i mi nng nghip. ng gp ca yu t th trng v yu t k thut V tm quan trng ca yu t gi nh l mt cng c tc ng n vic tng sn lng la, vic hiu v nh gi nh hng ca yu t th trng ny l cn thit i vi
1

nh gi ny c da trn gi tr xc xut ca p-value.

cc nh hoch nh chnh sch. Phng trnh 1 sau y trnh by kt qu phn tch mi quan h gia gi thu mua trong nc (gi bn t ngi nng dn sn xut la) v gi th gii trong giai on 1975-2002. P = 7.41WP 4075.9 t-value vi (3.745) P: gi thu mua trong nc WP: gi th gii Kt qu cho thy rng, trong di hn hai gi ny khng bin ng cng chiu. Ni cch khc, s thay i ca gi la trong nc khng b nh hng bi s thay i ca gi trn th trng th gii. Sn xut la trong nc sau mt thi gian tng i di b c lp vi th trng la go th gii. Mc d gi go xut khu ca Vit Nam v gi go th gii c mi quan h cht ch 2 , kt qu cho thy rng th trng la go trong nc khng tn ti mi quan h cht ch gia gi bn ra ca ngi sn xut la v gi bn ra ca nh xut khu go. S khc bit gia hai h thng gi ny c th c gii thch bi mt h thng thng tin th trng km hiu qu hay tnh cht c quyn ca cu trc th trng la go nc ta. nh gi y tc ng ca yu t th trng v yu t k thut i vi hot ng sn xut la Vit Nam, mt m hnh cung c xy dng cho giai on 19752002. Phng trnh 2 trnh by kt qu c lng cho hm cung ca mt phn h thng cc phng trnh hay m hnh cung da trn gi nh ca gi thuyt mong i hp l (Rational Expectation Hypothesis - REH). Sn lng: S.E p-value Qt = -55877261 + 3530.35Pte + 0,7517IRt + 45585270HYt (18256173) (1546.5) (0.0071) (0.0356) (3.4900) (0.8320) (15176672) (0.0080)

-5849183D86 + 35671.21Fzt + 25812321CROPt - 491669.6W S.E p-value F-statistic R2 = 0.968

2

(3532461) (0.1161) 97.090

(22733.45) (0.1350)

(2048992) (0.2263)

(2048992) (0.8132)

Xem Lu Thanh c Hi (2003)

vi

Q: Sn lng la (tn) Pe: Gi mong i REH (ng/kg) IR: din tch la c ti tiu (ha) HY: % sn lng la cao sn trn tng sn lng la D86: bin Dummy cho chnh sch th ch, 1 cho giai on 1987-2002, 0 cho giai on 1975-1986. Fz: lng phn bn s dng cho sn xut la (kg/ha) CROP: t l chuyn i c cu ma v sang v c nng sut cao nht W: bin Dummy cho thi tit, 1 cho nm c thi tit xu, 0 cho nm thi tit bnh thng

Trong m hnh cung ny, h s m ca bin D86 cho chng ta mt kt lun khng mong i v nh hng ca chnh sch i mi th ch trong qun l i vi khu vc sn xut la. Ging nh kt lun phn trn, mc tng trng bn vng trong sn xut la khng ch cn n c ph thuc vo cc chnh sch v m. Ni cch khc, c th duy tr s pht trin bn vng ca sn xut la, cc yu t khc hn l mt chnh sch qun l thng thong cn c khai thc c hiu qu. Trong m hnh cung ny, nh c trnh by mt phn bi Phng trnh 2, du ca cc h s c c lng u ph hp vi tin on ca l thuyt cung l, sn lng c mi quan h thun vi gi mong i t nh sn xut la, din tch la c ti tiu, mc ng dng cc ging la c nng sut cao, lng phn bn c u t, v t l chuyn i ma v sang v c nng sut la cao nht. Bt chp nhng gii hn v tnh cht i din ca cc bin lin quan n yu t k thut, m hnh cung ny cho php c lng nh hng ca cc yu t chnh sch th ch, yu t th trng, v yu t k thut i vi tng trng ca sn xut la. Mt im c bit cn nhn mnh i vi m hnh cung ny l vai tr d bo hay tin on ca bin gi mong i Pe c gi nh tun theo gi thuyt REH. T Phng trnh 2, co gin cung ca cc yu t th trng v yu t k thut c tnh ton v kt qu c trnh by trong Bng 3 di y:

Bng 3: co gin cung ca cc yu t th trng v yu t k thut, giai on 19752002

 co gin cung ca Gi (eP) Chuyn i ma v (eCROP) Chuyn i ging la nng sut cao (eHY) u t phn bn (eFz) u t ti tiu (eIR)

Gi tr 0,34 0,66 2,67 0,25 0,09

Cng vi co gin cung ca gi l 0,34, co gin cung ca gi ca la thng d th trng (marketed surplus) c tnh ton da trn m hnh ca Krishna (1962) c gi tr l 0,42 cho php chng ta tin rng yu t gi c nh hng ln i vi quyt nh cung ca ngi sn xut la. Vi gi nh rng cc yu t khc khng thay i, chnh sch gi c s tr thnh mt cng c tim nng khuy ng nn sn xut la hng ho nc ta. Trong cc yu t k thut, vic p dng cc tin b khoa hc k thut m ch n l mc s dng cc ging la c nng sut cao s to ra mt n by mnh m v mc tiu duy tr mc tng trng sn xut la bn vng. Chuyn i c cu ma v sang v c nng sut cao hn s gp phn m bo cht lng tng trng ca khu vc sn xut la. Nu so snh, hai yu t ny c mc ng gp ln hn so vi vic u t vo h thng ti tiu v tng mc s dng phn bn trn mt n v hecta mc d hai yu t ny l khng th thiu c i vi bt k mt nn sn xut la hin i, mc tiu m nc ta ang phn u vn ti. Tm li, trong m hnh cung c cp y, trong tng lai vai tr ca cc yu t k thut v yu t th trng ni ln nh l mt ng lc thc y v duy tr mc tng trng bn vng cho nn sn xut la trong khi yu t i mi chnh sch th ch trong khu vc nng nghip c xem l hon thnh cng vic bt u ca n cho k nguyn xc lp v th ca nn sn xut la go Vit Nam trn bn th gii. n lc v hn bao gi ht chng ta cn nhn thc tm quan trng ca lnh vc nghin cu khoa hc k thut v tn dng yu t tch cc ca c ch th trng tc ng ln hot ng sn xut la go nc ta. u t cho nghin cu khoa hc k thut, ng dng v chuyn giao tin b khoa hc k thut thit ngh l mt cng vic cn lm ngay, lin tc v lu di c th tng tc v duy tr mc tng trng ca nn sn xut la go nc ta.

TI LIU THAM KHO 1. LU THANH C HI. 2003. The organization of the liberalized rice market of Vietnam. PhD Thesis. Groningen University, the Netherlands. 2. V THNH DANH. 2004. Supply response of rice in Vietnam. Unpublished PhD Thesis. University of the Philippines Los Baos, the Philippines.