Chui bi Nghin cu khng chnh thc ca ADBI

Lm th no m mt nh gi cao ng nhn dn t nh hng n thng d ca Cng Ha Nhn Dn Trung Hoa trong thng mi ? S gia tng gi tr ca cc ng tin chu nh hng nh th no n cn cn thng mi ca Trung Quc?

Willem Thorbecke

S 219 Thng 6 nm 2010

Vin Ngn hng Pht trin Chu

Willem Thorbecke l mt thnh vin nghin cu cao cp ti ADBI. ng gi li cm n n Ginalyn Komoto v s h tr nghin cu xut sc ca GK. Nhng quan im th hin trong bi bo ny l nhng quan im ca cc tc gi v khng nht thit phi phn nh nhng quan im hay nhng chnh sch ca ADBI, Ngn hng Pht trin Chu (ADB), Ban Gim c ca ADB, hoc cc chnh ph m h i din. ADBI khng m bo tnh chnh xc ca nhng d liu bao gm trong bi bo ny v khng chu trch nhim cho bt k hu qu ca vic s dng ti liu ny. Thut ng s dng c th khng nht thit phi ph hp vi cc iu khon chnh thc ca ADB. Chui bi Nghin cu khng chnh thc ca ADBI ny l mt tip ni ca chui bi trc y c tn l Chui bi Tho Lun; s ca cc t bo lin tc khng gin on hoc thay i. Nhng bi bo Nghin cu khng chnh thc ca ADBI phn nh nhng tng ban u v mt ch v c ng trc tuyn tho lun. ADBI khuyn khch c gi gi kin ca mnh trn trang chnh cho mi bi Nghin cu khng chnh thc (c a ra trong trch dn di). Mt s bi bo Nghin cu khng chnh thc c th pht trin thnh cc hnh thc xut bn khc.

Trch dn: Thorbecke, W. 2010. Lm th no m mt nh gi cao ng nhn dn t nh hng n thng d ca nc Cng Ha Nhn Dn Trung Hoa trong thng mi ? S gia tng gi tr ca cc ng tin chu nh hng nh th no n cn cn thng mi ca Trung Quc? Bo Nghin cu khng chnh thc ca ADBI 219. Tokyo: Vin Ngn hng Pht trin Chu . C ti a ch:
Http://www.adbi.org/working-paper/2010/06/18/3913.yuan.affect..prc.surplus.trade /

Vin Ngn hng Pht trin Chu Tng 08, ta nh Kasumigaseki 3-2-5 Kasumigaseki, Chiyoda-ku Tokyo 100-6008, Nht Bn in thoi:+81-3-3593-5500 Fax:+81-3-3593-5571 URL:www.adbi.org E-mail:info@adbi.org 2009 Vin Ngn hng Pht trin Chu

TM TT
Thng d thng mi khng l l vn i vi nc Cng ha nhn dn Trung Hoa (PRC) v phn cn li ca th gii. H ch yu xut pht t thng mi gia cng. Bi bo ny iu tra lm th no t gi hi oi thay i s nh hng n nhp khu gia cng v xut khu hng ha gia cng ca Trung Quc . Kt qu cho thy s gia tng trong t gi hi oi trn ton chui cc nc cung ng ng s lm gim thng d ca Trung Quc trong thng mi gia cng, trong khi s gia tng t gi hi oi ca nhn dn t mt cch ring l li khng gy nh hng. Tuy nhin, ngay c i vi s gia tng t gi hi oi trn ton khu vc ng , th tng co gin t gi hi oi vn khng ln. V vy, ti cn bng thng mi ca Trung Quc, s nng gi t gi hi oi phi c kt hp vi nhng thay i khc nh th trng yu t t do ha v thc thi cc quy nh mi trng.

Phn loi JEL: F32, F41

Ni dung 1.Gii thiu .........................................................................................1 2.Thng mi gia cng ca Trung Quc............................................ 2 3.D liu v phng php lun ...........................................................6 3,1Xc nh xut khu, chc nng nhp khu ..........................6 3,2Xy dng mt t gi tch hp ...............................................7 3,3M hnh kinh t lng ..........................................................8 4.Kt qu .............................................................................................10 5.Tho lun..........................................................................................13 6.Kt lun ............................................................................................15 Ti liu tham kho ...............................................................................16 Ph lc: D liu ...................................................................................18

1.

GII THIU
Cng ha Nhn dn Trung Hoa (PRC) duy tr mt ch t gi hi oi c nh nhm mc tiu vo ng la M (Hoa K) . Trong qu trnh ny Trung Quc tch ly hn 2,4 nghn t USD trong d tr ngoi t. Ngn hng Nhn dn Trung Quc trit tiu cc can thip v ngn chn lm pht tng tc. Tuy nhin, s trit tiu cc hot ng buc cc ngn hng thng mi gi cc ha n ngn hng trung ng cng ngy cng nhiu, can thip vi cc phn b tn dng. H cng gy ra mt phn b ngy cng km hiu qu ca ti nguyn k t khi mc gi t nhn v x hi li nhun cao hn cho u t trong nc nn kinh t hn so vi u t vo tri phiu kho bc M. Nhiu ngi do ng h mt nhiu hn ch t gi hi oi linh hot cho Trung Quc. Lm th no kt qu i bin ng t gi hi oi s nh hng n thng d ca Trung Quc vi phn cn li ca th gii? iu kin Marshall-Lerner ng rng, nu thng mi c cn bng lc ban u, mt s tng gi ca t gi hi oi s lm gim cn cn thng mi nu tng hp (gi tr tuyt i ca) cc co gin cu i vi hng xut khu v nhp khu vt qu mt. Trong trng hp ca Trung Quc, nh hng ca thay i t gi hi oi trn cn cn thng mi l phc tp bi v thng d thng mi ca Trung Quc k t nm 2008 c gn nh hon ton tp trung trong thng mi gia cng. Xut khu hng ha qua gia cng l hng ha cui cng c sn xut bng cch s dng cc b phn v linh kin nhp khu t phn cn li ca th gii. V hu ht gi tr gia tng thu nhp t hng ha gia cng th t cc quc gia khc, nn nh hng ca thay i trong nhn dn t ln khi lng thng mi gia cng c th c gim bt. Yoshitomi (2007) ghi nhn rng cc b phn v linh kin cho xut khu ca Trung Quc ch yu n t cc nc ng khc. Do ng lu rng mt s tng gi ca ng nhn dn t s ch nh hng n chi ph ngoi t trong gi tr tng thm ca thng mi gia cng Trung Quc, trong khi tng hp s tng t gi chu s nh hng n chi ph ngoi t ca ton b u ra ca hng ha Trung Quc (1) .S tng t gi tng hp v vy c mt tc ng ln hn vo xut khu ca Trung Quc. Thorbecke v Smith (2010) xy dng mt bin t gi hi oi tch hp o lng nhng thay i trong chi ph ngoi t tng i khng ch ca gi tr gia tng Trung Quc m cn ton b u ra ca xut khu Trung Quc. S dng hnh vung bnh thng nng ng nht d ton v bng d liu hng nm thit lp

trong giai on 1992-2005, h bo co rng tng t gi 10% trong khu vc s lm gim 10% xut khu hng ha gia cng. Ahmed (2009) s dng mt m hnh tr phn phi autoregressive v d liu hng qu trong 1996Q1-2009Q2 thi gian v thay i t gi CNY phn tch thnh nhng lin quan cc nc ng v nhng lin quan n cc quc gia khc. ng bo co rng 10% s tng gi nhn nhn dn t lin quan ti cc nc khng thuc ng s lm gim xut khu Trung Quc 17% v tng t gi 10% ti cc nc ng s lm gim 15% xut khu hng ha gia cng ca Trung Quc.(2) Bi bo ny m rng cng vic trc theo 2 cch. u tin, iu tra cc yu t nh hng n nhp khu gia cng cng nh xut khu hng ha gia cng. iu ny lm cho n c th xem xt t gi hi oi thay i nh hng nh th no n khng ch xut khu ca Trung Quc m cn thng d ca Trung Quc gn 300 t USD trong thng mi gia cng . Th hai, n m rng Thorbecke v d liu ca Smith bao gm cc quan st t 2006-2008. Giai on ny l quan trng bi v k c ng nhn dn t v thng mi gia cng ca Trung Quc bc l bin ng chnh trong sut nhng nm ny. Kt qu cho thy s tng t hi oi khp chui cc nc cung ng ng s lm gim thng d ca Trung Quc. Bng chng l cha r rng lin quan n s gia tng ca ng nhn dn t khng km theo mt s nh gi cao trong phn cn li ca chu s c hiu ng ny. Phn tip theo trnh by mt phn tch m t ca thng mi gia cng ca Trung Quc. Phn 3 trnh by cc d liu v phng php lun. Phn 4 cha cc kt qu v mc 5 tho lun ngha ca nhng kt qu ny. Phn 6 kt lun.

(1)y khng phi l hon ton ng v khng phi tt c cc yu t u vo nhp khu c s dng sn xut hng xut khu gia cng t ng . (2) Marquez v Schindler (2007) v Cheung, Chinn, v Fujii (2010), v Garcia-Herrero v Koivu (2007) trnh by c tnh c gi tr ca co gin thng mi cho Trung Quc.

2.

THNG MI GIA CNG CA TRUNG QUC:

2.1 nh ngha v xut - nhp khu gia cng: Thng k Hi quan ca Trung Quc (CCS) phn bit gia hng ho xut khu, nhp khu trong thng mi gia cng v nhp khu v xut khu thng thng. Nhp khu gia cng l hng ho c a vo Trung Quc gia cng v sau ti xut khu. Theo phn loi ca Hi quan Trung Quc, xut khu gia cng l hng ho c sn xut sau khi nhp khu gia cng. 2.2 S khc nhau gia xut - nhp khu gia cng v xut - nhp khu thng thng: Nhp khu gia cng l nhp khu c min thu v khng tnh thu cc yu t u vo nhp khu cng nh cc thnh phm c sn xut bi cc yu t u vo ny khi nhp khu vo th trng ni a Trung Quc. Nhp khu thng thng l hng ho c nhp khu khng min thu v thng l hng ho c sn xut ch yu s dng u vo a phng. Feenstra v Wei (2009) bo co rng 84% hng ha gia cng xut khu ca Trung Quc c sn xut bi cc doanh nghip c vn u t nc ngoi. 2.3 Phn loi thng mi gia cng: Cc thng k Hi quan Trung Quc chia thng mi gia cng thnh hai loi, l thng mi gia cng v lp rp vi thng mi gia cng nguyn liu nhp khu. Gaulier, Lemoine, Unal-Kesenci (2005) tho lun: Thng mi gia cng v lp rp: cp n cc nh cung cp nc ngoi nhp khu hng ha trung gian thuc s hu ca h ( v d cng ty con nhp hng t cng ty m nc ngoi) v s dng cc yu t u vo ny sn xut hng ha nhm xut khu li. Thng mi gia cng nguyn liu nhp khu: cp n cc nh cung cp nc ngoi nhp khu u vo t cc cng ty khc v s dng nhng yu t u vo ny sn xut hng ha ti xut khu.

Hnh 1 cho thy rng hu ht thng d thng mi ca Trung Quc cho n nm 2008 v tt c thng d thng mi ca Trung Quc sau nm 2008 do thng mi gia cng .

Thng d ca loi thng mi gia cng v lp rp t khong nm 2007 n 2009 tnh trung bnh l 20t USD v thng d thng mi gia cng l 250t USD. iu ny ng rng, trong khi mc nhp khu ni b ca cc doanh nghip c vn u t nc ngoi (FIEs) vn n nh, th giao dch bnh thng ca cc doanh nghip FDI Trung Quc vi cc cng ty khc t ti Trung Quc ang ngy cng din ra mt cch gia tng.

Hnh 2 tch bit thng mi gia cng bng cch s dng cch phn loi ca h thng cn i HS. N cho thy rng my mc v sn phm in (HS 84-85) tr nn ngy cng quan trng trn c hai kha cnh nhp khu v xut khu trong khi hng dt may (HS 41-43, 50-63) dn dn t quan trng hn. V vy, thng mi gia cng c hiu rng ra l bao gm vic nhp khu cc b phn phc tp,

cc linh kin v s dng chng sn xut my tnh, thit b vin thng, v hng cng ngh cao khc.

Bng 1 cho thy thng mi gia cng ca Trung Quc c phn tch theo quc gia khong t nm 2006 n nm 2008. Hai phn ba hng nhp khu ca Trung Quc gia cng n t Nht Bn, cc thnh vin ca Hip hi cc quc gia ng Nam (ASEAN), v cc nc cng nghip mi (NIEs), trong khi ch c

khong 5% n t M v 5% t chu u. Mt khc, ng , M, Chu u, v Hng Kng mi ni tng nhn c khong 20% kim ngch xut khu t gia cng. Kt qu l, Trung Quc thm ht trong thng mi gia cng khong 100t USD vi ng v thng d 100t USD vi chu u, 130t USD vi M v Hng Kng.

3.
3.1

PHNG PHP V D LIU

Hm xc nh xut khu v nhp khu
Theo m hinh chuyn i bt hon ho ca GoldStein v Khan( 1985), cc hm xut khu v nhp khu tng ng l:

ext = 10 + 11rert + 12 yt*+ 1t imt = 20 + 21rert + 22yt + 2t

Trong : ext: xut khu thc;

(1) (2)

rert: t gi hi oi thc yt*: thu nhp thc t nc ngoi imt: nhp khu thc yt: thu nhp thc t ni a
v tt c cc bin c gi tr dng trong logarit t nhin Thay i nhng phng trnh ny l cn thit trong trng hp thng mi gia cng ca Trung quc. Ti cho rng cc nhn t khc nh hng n xut khu sn phm gia cng v nhp khu nguyn liu cha gia cng. Vi nhp khu nguyn liu cha gia cng, qu tin t quc t IMF(2005) lu rng gi nn co gin vi bin nh bi v cc hng ha trung gian khng phi l sn phm ni a, v vy kh c kh nng thay th nhp khu bng nguyn liu ni a. Tuy nhin, phn ln thng d trong thng mi gia cng nm 2005 ni ln rng cc nh sn xut c th tm c ngun hng ha trung gian trong nc. Do ,trong nhng nm gn y c s co gin v gi trong nhu cu nhp khu nguyn liu gia cng.

10

Qu tin t IMF(2005) cng lp lun rng nhp khu nguyn liu cho gia cng v xut khu hng ha gia cng nn thay i vi t l 1-1.Nh vy, lng nhp khu nguyn liu gia cng vo Trung Quc nn co gin p ng vi s gia tng nhu cu i vi hng ha gia cng xut khu ca th gii. Xut khu gia cng do bao gm mt bin bn v phi gii thch nhp khu nguyn liu gia cng. K t khi nhp khu gia cng khng ch d nh dnh cho th trng ni a m cn lp rp hng ha xut khu, ch r mc u i thp bao gm hng ha xut khu nhng khng em thu nhp v cho Trung Quc. Dng u t trc tip nc ngoi(FDI) v cc cng ty a quc gia cng ng vai tr quan trng trong thng mi gia cng(trong nm 2005 nh Gaulier,Lemoine, v Unal-Kesenci). Nh tho lun nh trn, 84% ca xut khu hng gia cngTrung Quc nm 2006 c sn xut bi cc cng ty u t nc ngoi( Feenstra v Wei 2009). Do , FDI cng bao gm 1 bin bn v phi. Nh Marquex v Schindler(2007) lu , hiu qu ca FDI trong nhp khu c tnh tch cc hay tiu cc ph thuc vo s u t hiu qu c to ra hoc cc hiu qu b sung. Theo cc tc gi trc( v d: Garcia-Herrero v Koivu 2007), t chc thng mai quc t(WTO) l mt bin s thay i c bao gm nh l bin nm bn v phi. Trung quc gia nhpWTO c th cho cc cng ty nc ngoi c nhiu tin tng trong quan h lu di vi cc cng ty Trung Quc. Garcia-Herrero v Koivu 2007 tha nhn rng v th ca Trung Quc trong WTO c nh hng n thng mi Trung Quc sau khi Trung quc b u tham gia vo WTO t nm 2000.Do cc bin thay i c thit lp gi tr bt u t nm 2000. c nhiu gi tr gia tng xut khu hng ha gia cng n t cc ngun u vo, c bit l ngun sn phm u vo t cc nc ng khc. S tng gi chung trong cc nc ng cho thy tin t ca cc nc nhp khu c nh hng ln n gi vn ca hng ha xut khu qua gia cngca Trung Quc hn l ch l s tng gi n phng ca ng Nhn dn t. Tng gi n phng c th ch thay i gi tr ng ngoi t lin quan n gi tr gia tng ca Trung Quc trong xut khu hng gia cng. Do mt t gi hi oi chung bao gm s thay i v lng trong t gi hi oi ca chui gi tr gia tng ca cc nc cung cp trong thng mi gia cng.

11

3.2

Xy dng mt t gi hi oi chung

Theo Tong v Zheng (2008), gi tr gia tng thng mi gia cngca Trung Quc c th c hiu l s khc nhau gia gi tr ca xut khu hng ha gia cngca Trung Quc(VPEt) v gi tr ca nguyn liu nhp khu cho gia cngt tt c chui cc nc cung cp(iVIPi,t):

Trong : VAChin,t l gi tr gia tng trong thng mi gia cng ca Trung Quc. D liu hng nm ca tng gi tr hng ha qua gia cng xut khu v tng gi tr ca nguyn liu nhp khu cho gia cngc s dng tnh gi tr gia tng ca Trung Quc. tnh ton gi tr gia tng ca chui cc nh cung cp, trong ti liu ny ch trng n chin nh cung cp nguyn liu cho gia cngcho Trung Quc. l: c, Nht, Hn Quc, Malayxia, Philippin, Singapo, i loan, Thi Lan v M. T trng ( wi ,t ) nhng nh cung cp ny c tnh ton bng cch chia s ng gp vo lng nguyn liu gia cng ca Trung Quc v phn ln cc ngun nguyn liu c nhp u t 9 quc gia ny . Nhng t trng ny c dng tnh ton t trng t gi hi oi ( wrerj ,t ) gia Trung Quc v mi ncj mua hng qua gia cng ca Trung Quc bng vic tnh t trng ca sn phm bn trong v t gi hi oi song phng thc tgia nh cung cp nguyn liu cho gia cngv nc j: (3)

Trong : rer i,j,t l t gi hi oi song phng thc gia chui nc cung cp i v nc mua hng ha xut khu qua gia cngcui cng. wrer j,t l t trng t gi hi oi l s kt hp gia t gi hi oi song phng ca nc j (rer i,j,t) v Trung Quc tnh ton mt t gi hi oi chung duy nht (irer j,t) o lng s nh hng ca s thay i t gi hi oi n ton b chi ph hng gia cngxut khu ca Trung Quc n nc j irer j,t = VAChin,t * rerChin,t + (1 - VAChin,t)* wrer j,t (5)

12

Trong trng hp ny, tnh irer cn thit phi s dng mt phng php o lng c bn chung s dng o lng t gi hi oi Bng cch s dng bin thin ca t gi hi oi thc ca Trung tm Prospectives Centre d'Etudes et d'Thng tin Internationales (CEPII). Theo CEPII, t gi hi oi thc gia nc i v nc j c tnh ton bng cch chia Tng sn phm quc ni(GDP) tnh bng USD ca nc i bng GDP sc mua tng ng (PPP) ca nc i v cng tng t vi nc j. Kt qu t l ca nc i chia cho t l nc j. Bin s ny o lng mt n v hng ha tiu dng ca nc i cn mua mt n v hng ha tiu dng ca nc j. Cch tnh c th thng qua quc gia hoc thi gian.Bi v n c th so snh thng qua quc gia cng nh thng qua thi gian, c th s dng phng trnh (2) tnh ton irer. wrer v irer cng cao cng th hin t gi hi oi tng gia Trung Quc v cc nc cung cp. Cc bin s c lp khc l s phn vn sn xut ca Trung Quc , phn vn FDI v bin gi WTO. Chueng, Chinn v Fujii(2010) pht hin ra rng tng vn c phn c th gip gii thch xut khu ca Trung Quc. Nh tho lun, phn vn FDI v s gia nhp ca Trung Quc vo WTO c th gii thch s tng trng trong ngch gia cng. Bin s ph thuc l nhp khu nguyn liu gia cng v hng ha gia cng xut khu cu Trung Quc. Chng c ly s liu t Thng k ca Cc hi quan Trung Quc. Theo Chueng, Chinn v Fujii(2010) ch s n v gi tr ti xut t Hong kong n Trung Quc dng gim nhp siu ca Trung Quc v ch s ti xut t HongKong ti M dng gim pht xut khu ca Trung Quc. D liu chi tit c trong Ph lc

3.3 M hnh thng k kinh t

Bng A ca bng 2 bo co kt qu t Kim nh nghim n v trn d liu dng mng Ct 1 (1) th hin thng k Im,Peseran v Shin, ct (2) Thng k tim cn phn phi t do (ADF) Fisher Chi-square, Ct 3 (3) Thng k Phillips-Perron Fisher Chi-square, Ct 4 (4) thng k t ca Levin, Lin, and Chu t-statistic, v ct 5 (5) the Hadiri heteroscedastic consistent Z-statistic. Vi 4 hm kim th u, gi thit bin l mt n v gc trong khi kim nghim th 5 th duy tr gi thit l mt bin tnh. Trong phn ln trng hp ch ra rng kt qu l mt chui cc n v. Bng kim nghim n v trn s liu dng mng khng c tin hnh theo chui

13

thi gian m khng c d liu cho no( nh phn vn Trung Quc, FDI vo Trung Quc v thu nhp Trung Quc). Table 2: Unit Root and Cointegration Tests Bng A. Unit Root (1) (2) 1.3 47.84 0 0.0 58.87 4 18.66 4.6 3.2 54.69 9

Bin s Xut khu hng ha gia cng Nhp khu nguyn liu T gi chung Thu nhp ca th gii (tr TQ)

(3) 50.65 56. 1 15.89 28.26

(4) -4.14** -5.70** 4.15 -4.73**

(1) PP test Fisher Chi-square statistic (null hypothesis: unit root) (2) Im, Pesaran, and Shin W-statistic (null hypothesis: unit root) (3) ADF Fisher Chi-square statistic (null hypothesis: unit root) (4) Levin, Lin, and Chu t-statistic (null hypothesis: unit root) (5) Hadiri Heteroscedastic Consistent Z-statistic (null hypothesis: stationarity) Ch : la chn tr da vo tiu chun Schwartz Information . **Vi mc ngha l 5%.

(5) 13.24* * 13.22* * 10.00* 12.45* *

Bng B ca bng 2 bo co kt qu ca kim nh ng lin kt Kei. Cho c hm nhp khu v hm xut khu, kt qu ch ra rng gi thit ca hi nhp b loi b.. Bng c lng DOLS,c lng ng lin kt, do c s dng. Panel B. Kao Residual Cointegration Test Hm xut khu 7.17** Hm nhp khu -3.18**
(1) t-statistic from Kao Residual Cointegration test of the null hypothesis of no co integration. Ch : la chn tr da vo tiu chun Schwartz Information . **Vi mc ngha l 5%.

14

DOLS bao gm hi quy bin bn tay tri l hng s, bin bn tay phi v bin dn dt v tr bn v phi Hm nhp khu ring l c dng:

Trong : exi,t biu th xut khu hng ha qua gia cng ca Trung Quc ti nc i irer i,t biu th t gi hi oi chung. rgdpC,t l thu nhp thc ca nc nhp khu. Kt l phn vn sn xut ca Trung Quc. FDI t biu th phn vn u t nc ngoi trc tip. WTO l bin gi . i l nh hng c nh ca nc i p l bin dn v tr(y mnh hay tr hon) ca im i,t, ireri,t, rgdp,t,i,Kt v FDIt l s dng trong logarit t nhin. ext,I v ireri,t thay i theo thi gian v gia cc quc gia. Kt v FDI l ch thay i theo thi gian.

4.

KT QU:

Bng 3 trnh by kt qu ca nguyn liu nhp khu.Cc h s v t gi hi oi ch r c ngha thng k v tch cc , ch ra rng nng gi tr ca t gi chung s gia tng nhp khu nguyn liu cho . Cc h s ch ra rng nu nng gi tr 10% irer s lm gia tng nhp khu nguyn liu cho t 3,9% cho n 4,1%. Mc d bo co trong bng 3, nhng h s cn li hu nh khng thay i nu bao gm xu hng c thi hn.

15

Bng 3: Bng DOLS c tnh nguyn liu nhp khu ca Trung Quc cho t 25 nc trong thi k t 1992-2008
Cc bin c lp (1) (2) (3) (4) (5)

CNY Exchange rate

0.41** (0.16)

0.41*** (0.16)

0.39** (0.16) 2.75 (2.01)

0.40*** (0.16) -1.83 (1.21) 1.84*** (0.62)

0.42*** (0.16)

Thu nhp Trung Quc

-9.70*** (2.22)

Hng ha xut khu

-3.66 (3.02)

0.95*** (0.07) 0.01 (0.25) 0.17* (0.09) 0.95 350 -0.66 (2.06) 0.20 (0.14) 0.95 350

1.02*** (0.08) -0.13 (0.26)

Phn vn FDI

21.27*** (4.86)

Bin s gi WTO

0.24 (0.15)

0.26*** (0.08) 0.95 350 0.95 350

R-bnh phng S mu quan st

0.95 350

Ch : c lng DOLS(1,1). Heteroskedasticity(Phng sai khc nhau)-Cc li chun thch hp nm trong ngoc. Nhp khu l gim pht s dng ch s n v gi tr ti xut t Hong Kong n Trung Quc lc a. D liu m rng t 1992 n 2008. T c lng DOLS s dng leads and lag ca bin bn tay phi khc bnh thng t 1994 n 2007. Bao gm cc nh hng c nh ca t nc *** (**) mc ngha l 1% n mc (5%) level. Ngun: c lng ca tc gi

Nhng c im u tin ct (2)v (5) bao gm hng ha xut khu nhng khng c thu nhp ca Trung Quc, cc h s trong xut khu hng ha gn nh l thng nht. Nhng kt qu h tr gi thit ca IMF(2005) rng c mt quan h xp x 1-1 gia xut khu hng v nhp khu nguyn liu cha. Qu tin t th gii IMF(2005) cng tha nhn rng s co gin t gi hi oi ca nhp khu nguyn liu cha nn nh bi v t c sn phm thay th t ni a. Tuy nhin, bng chng tho lun trong mc 2, rng giao dch gia cc cng ty lin doanh c vn u t nc ngoi vi cc cng ty trong nc ngy cng gia tng, cho thy co gin ca t gi hi oi gia tng trong nhng nm gn y. Bo co v co gin ca t gi hi oi trong bng 3 ch c ngha khi bao gm d liu t 2005 n 2008.

16

Cng vic tng lai l kim tra xem nhp khu nguyn liu c tr nn nhy cm hn vi s thay i t gi hi oi trong nhng nm gn y nh l Trung Quc c s pht trin ca sn phm thay th phn nhp khu v linh kin. Bng 4 trnh by kt qu ca xut khu hng ha . Cc h s trong t gi hi oi chung ch r l tiu cc v c ngha thng k, ch ra rng khi nng gi tr t gi hi oi chung ca Trung Quc v chui cc nc cung cp s lm gim xut khu hng ha Cc h s ch ra rng khi nng gi tr ln 10% ca cc nc ng s lm gim xut khu hng ha t 7.8 n 18.7%. Mc d khng c bo co trong bng 4, nhng h s cn li c mc ngha cao khi bnao gm khuynh hng c thi hn.

Bng 4: Bng DOLS c tnh lng xut khu hng ha gia cng ca Trung Quc n trn 25 quc gia trong thi k t 1992-2008
Cc bin c lp Integrated exchange rate (1) -0.79*** (0.16) ROW Income Capital stock FDI stock WTO dummy 0.42** (0.18) 2.39*** (0.39) -1.01** (0.51) -0.07 (0.14) Adjusted R-squared No. of observations 0.98 350 1.56*** (0.28) 0.70*** (0.17) 0.97 350 0.09 (0.07) 0.98 350 0.41*** (0.12) 0.95 350 (2) -1.20*** (0.21) 1.64*** (0.22) (3) -0.78*** (0.16) 0.44*** (0.15) 1.62*** (0.11) (4) -1.87*** (0.36) 3.08*** (0.42)

Ch : c lng DOLS(1,1). Heteroskedasticity(Phng sai khc nhau)-Cc li chun thch hp nm trong ngoc. Nhp khu l gim pht s dng ch s n v gi tr ti xut t Hong Kong n Trung Quc lc a. D liu c using the Hong Kong, China to PRC. reexport unit value index. D liu m rng t 1992 n 2008. T c lng DOLS s dng leads and lag ca bin bn tay phi khc bnh thng t 1994 n 2007.Bao gm cc nh hng c nh ca t nc .

17

*** (**) mc ngha l 1% n mc (5%) level. Ngun: c lng ca tc gi

H s thu nhp ca th gii( tr Trung Quc)l tch cc v c ngha thng k trong tt c cc c im k thut, ch ra rng mt s gia tng trong thu nhp ca phn cn li ca th gii s tng xut khu hng ha . Cc gi tr h s bng 0,4 khi vn c phn b loi tr v thay i t 1.64 n 3.08 khi bao gm vn c phn. H s vn c phn cng tch cc v c ngha thng k trong cc c im k thut. H s c gi tr gia 1.62 v 2.39. Nhng gi tr ch ra rng khi gia tng 10% trong vn c phn ca Trung Quc th sgia tng xut khu hng ha t 16 n 24%. Nhng gi tr ny gn ging vi nhng bo co ca Cheung, Chinn v Fujii (2010) Bng 5 trnh by kt qu ca nhp khu nguyn liu s dng t gi ng NDT nh l mt bin c lp thay v t gi hi oi chung. H s ca t gi hi oi l tch cc v c ngha thng k trong cc c im k thut., ch ra rng mt s gia tng ca ng NDT ln 10% s gia tng nhp khu nguyn liu t3.6 n 3.9%. Bng 5: Bng c lng DOLS nhp khu ca hng ha ca Trung Quc t 19922008
Independent variables CNY Exchange rate PRCs Income Processed exports FDI stock WTO dummy (1) 0.37** (0.16) -10.94*** (2.12) -3.92*** (1.01) 22.95*** (3.64) 0.26** (0.12) Adjusted R-squared 0.95 0.91*** (0.03) -0.13 (0.10) 0.19*** (0.05) 0.95 -0.20 (1.60) 0.21*** (0.06) 0.95 0.25** (0.12) 0.95 0.95 (2) 0.36** (0.16) (3) 0.36** (0.16) 2.07 (1.52) (4) 0.37** (0.16) -2.48 (1.79) 2.01** (0.83) 0.97*** (0.06) -0.29* (0.16) (5) 0.39*** (0.15)

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No. of observations

350

350

350

350

350

Ch : c lngDOLS(1,1). Heteroskedasticity(Phng sai khc nhau)-Cc li chun thch hp nm trong ngoc. Nhp khu l gim pht s dng ch s n v gi tr ti xut t Hong Kong n Trung Quc lc a. D liu c using the Hong Kong, China to PRC. re-export unit value index. D liu m rng t 1992 n 2008. T c lng DOLS s dng leads and lag ca bin bn tay phi khc bnh thng t 1994 n 2007.Bao gm cc nh hng c nh ca t nc *** (**) mc ngha l 1% n mc (5%) level. Ngun: c lng ca tc gi

Bng 6 trnh by kt qu ca xut khu hng ha s dng t gi ng NDT thay v s dng t gi chung. Kt qu ch ra rng mt s gia tng gi tr trong ng NDT s lm gim lng xut khu hng ha . H s ca t gi ng NDT l nh hn h s ca t gi hi oi chung. Chng trung bnh l -0,77, so snh vi mt gi tr trung bnh t -1,16 ca h s t gi chung trong bng 3. Nhng kt qu ch ra rng c mt s gia tng gi tr xuyn sut Chu s gy nh hng ln n xut khu hng ha hn l s gia tng ca mnh ng NDT Bng 6: Bng c lng DOLS ca xut khu hng ha ca Trung Quc n 25 nc t 19922008
Independent variables CNY Exchange Rate (1) -0.68*** (0.14) ROW Income 0.38** (0.19) Capital stock 2.51*** (0.33) FDI stock -0.80* (0.42) WTO dummy -0.07 (0.10) Adjusted R-squared No. of observations 0.98 350 2.16*** (0.28) 0.67*** (0.16) 0.97 350 0.07 (0.05) 0.98 350 0.54*** (0.17) 0.95 350 (2) -0.95*** (0.16) 1.62*** (0.26) (3) -0.71*** (0.13) 0.38** (0.18) 1.94*** (0.07) (4) -0.74*** (0.16) 5.03*** (0.39)

19

Ch : c lngDOLS(1,1). Heteroskedasticity(Phng sai khc nhau)-Cc li chun thch hp nm trong ngoc. Nhp khu l gim pht s dng ch s n v gi tr ti xut t Hong Kong n Trung Quc lc a. D liu c using the Hong Kong, China to PRC. re-export unit value index. D liu m rng t 1992 n 2008. T c lng DOLS s dng leads and lag ca bin bn tay phi khc bnh thng t 1994 n 2007.Bao gm cc nh hng c nh ca t nc *** (**) mc ngha l 1% n mc (5%) level. Ngun: c lng ca tc gi

5. THO LUN Cc nh hoch nh chnh sch Trung Quc lu rng thng d thng mi ca Trung Quc hin qu ln v cn phi c cn bng li. Thng d ca Trung Quc trong nhng nm gn y tp trung ch yu trong gia cng thng mi. Lm th no s tng gi ca cc ng tin chu hoc ca ring ng nhn dn t s nh hng n cn cn gia cng thng mi ca Trung Quc? iu kin Marshall-Lerner ng rng nu lng xut khu ban u lng nhp khu, s tng gi s lm gim cn cn thng mi nu tng (gi tr tuyt i) co dn theo gi c ca xut khu v nhp khu ln hn 1. Nu ti khon vng lai ban u khng c cn bng, th chng ta cn p dng mt phin bn tng qut ca iu kin Marshall-Lerner (xem bo co ca Appleyard v Field 2001). iu kin ny ni rng vic tng gi ni t s lm gim thng d thng mi nu nh: Z < 21 + Z 11 (8)

trong : Z l t l lng hng xut khu so vi lng hng nhp khu, 21 l co dn gi ca hng nhp khu, v 11 l co gin gi ca hng xut khu. Theo Cc Thng k hi quan Trung Quc, lng hng xut khu qua gia cng vt qu lng hng nhp khu cho gia cng trong 5 nm qua vi t l t 1,73 ti 1. Theo , Z bng 1,73. H s 21 trong Bng 3 trung bnh bng 0,41. Do , bt phng trnh (8) ng rng khi tng t gi hi oi tch hp s lm gim thng d thng mi nu gi tr tuyt i ca co dn xut khu ln hn 0,76. C bn trng hp trong Bng 4 u cho kt qu ln hn gi tr ny v trung bnh bng 1,16. Bng chng ny cho thy s tng gi chung cc quc gia trong chui cung cp chu s lm gim thng d trong thng mi gia cng.

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Trong trng hp ng nhn dn t tng gi n l, h s 21 trong Bng 5 trung bnh bng 0,37. Theo bt phng trnh (8), s tng gi ng nhn dn t s gim thng d thng mi nu gi tr tuyt i ca co dn theo gi c ca xut khu ln hn 0,79. Ch c 1 trong 4 trng hp trong Bng 4 cho kt qu ln hn gi tr ny. V vy n khng ch r rng vic tng gi ca ng nhn dn t khng km theo s tng gi ni t cc quc gia trong chui cung ng s lm gim thng d trong thng mi gia cng.

Lm th no t c mt s tng gi ni t trn ton khu vc ng ? C 1 cch l Trung Quc c th p dng mt ch t gi hi oi c trng bi mt loi tin t a nng, trong gi hng ha da trn mc tham chiu hp l vi bin ln. Trong trng hp ny, cc thng d khng l c to ra trong mng li sn xut ng s lm cho cc loi tin t trong khu vc cng tng gi. Nhng lc lng th trng sau s phn b s tng gi tin t gia cc quc gia trong chui cung ng da trn gi tr cng thm ca h ng gp trong gia cng thng mi.

Ngay c trong trng hp c mt s tng t gi hi oi trn ton chu , th bin t gi trong cc Bng 3 v 4 khng phi l ln. Do , kt qu trong bo co ny ng rng nhng thay i n l ca t gi hi oi khng th lm gim ng k cn cn gia cng thng mi.

xem xt nhng cch khc gim thng d, chng ta nn xem xt tit kim v u t quc gia Trung Quc. Nh c v trong Hnh 3. Hnh ny cho thy rng tit kim v u t bt u phn k sau nm 2002. Theo bo co ca Ngn hng Pht trin Chu (ADB) (2009), s thiu ht u t so vi tit kim l do s gia tng tit kim doanh nghip ti Trung Quc. N tng t 17% ca thu nhp quc gia trong 2002 ln 23% trong nm 2007.

Hnh 3: Tit kim v u t ca Trung Quc theo % GDP (19902007).

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Ngun: Qu tin t quc t thng qua c s d liu ca CEIC (http://www.ceicdata.com/), ngy 16/4/2010.

iu g khin tit kim doanh nghip tng nhanh nh vy? Ngn hng Pht trin chu (2009) bo co rng li nhun sau thu ca doanh nghip tng ti 6% GDP trong cc nm 2003 n 2006. Mt phn ca s gia tng ny l do tc tng trng kinh t nhanh chng v gi u ra tng, qua tng li nhun ca cc doanh nghip nh nc (SOEs) v cc cng ty t nhn. Khi doanh nghip c th nh nc khng tr c tc, li nhun trc tip cao n n tng tit kim ca doanh nghip tng. Mt s yu t khc cng gp phn vo t l tit kim cao v tng ln gia cc doanh nghip nh nc. C nhiu cng ty c quyn trong nhiu lnh vc khc nhau, chng hn nh cng ty China Mobile trong lnh vc vin thng v Tng cng ty Du kh Quc gia Trung Quc trong lnh vc du kh. Theo bo co ca Xing (2009), li nhun ca cc cng ty c quyn ng gp vo mc tit kim doanh nghip cao, mc chi tr lng c bit cao cho cc gim c iu hnh ti doanh nghip nh nc, v gy ra mt s chnh lch trong phn phi thu nhp.

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Ngoi ra, theo ti liu ca Huang (2009), nhng yu t bin dng th trng cung cp mt gi tr cp cho cc nh sn xut tr gi gn 2 nghn t nhn dn t (7% GDP) trong nm 2008. Nhng tr cp ny bao gm: vic ng nhn dn t c nh gi thp, gi t v li sut thc thp mt cch gi to, gi nhin liu v in b qun l, v mi trng php lut khng c thc thi nghim ngt. Nhng khon tr cp ny chuyn giao ngun lc cho khu vc doanh nghip v lm gia tng li nhun cho h. Nu cc khon tr cp ny c loi b v cc doanh nghip Trung Quc phi i mt vi gi cao cho ngun ti nguyn, t ai, in, v cc mt hng khc, sau kh nng cnh tranh ton cu ca h s gim v iu ny s lm gim sn xut thng mi Trung Quc. V vy, nu cc nh hoch nh chnh sch Trung Quc mun cn bng li tng trng, gia tng t gi hi oi chu c l s phi c i km vi thay i khc. Chng bao gm bi b quy nh, t do ha cc yu t th trng, v loi b cc sai lch v chnh sch u tin cho khu vc thng mi so vi khu vc phi thng mi. 6. KT LUN Vic ghm t gi hi oi ca Trung Quc gy ra nhng vn ti Trung Quc v phn cn li ca th gii. Ti Trung Quc, h can thip vo vic phn b tn dng bng cch buc cc ngn hng thng mi nm gi s lng ngy cng ln cc hi phiu ngn hng trung ng. cc nc chu khc, vic ghm gi t gi ca Trung Quc khin cc ngn hng trung ng can thip vo th trng tin t v tch ly d tr duy tr kh nng cnh tranh vi Trung Quc. Nhiu ngi cho rng Trung Quc nn chuyn sang mt ch t gi hi oi linh hot hn. Bi vit ny iu tra lm th no nhng thay i trong t gi hi oi nh hng n thng d thng mi ca Trung Quc. K t nm 2008, thng d ny c tp trung trong gia cng thng mi. Mt hng gia cng xut khu l nhng thnh phm c sn xut da vo cc b phn v cc thnh phn ch yu t cc nc chu khc. Kt qu cho thy s gia tng t gi trn ton chu s lm gim thng d ca Trung Quc trong gia cng thng mi. S tng gi ng nhn dn t n phng s khng lm gim thng d ny. Mt cch lm tng gi ni t i vi cc quc gia trong chui cung ng l Trung Quc phi p dng mt ch t gi hi oi c trng bi mt loi tin t

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a nng, trong gi hng ha da trn mc tham chiu hp l vi bin ln. Trong trng hp ny, cc thng d khng l c to ra trong mng li sn xut ng s lm cho cc loi tin t trong khu vc tng gi cng nhau. Nhng lc lng th trng sau c th phn b cc vic tng gi ni t ca cc quc gia trong chui cung ng da trn mc ng gp gi tr gia tng ca h trong chui gia cng thng mi. Tuy nhin, trong thc t bin co gin ca t gi c ghi chp trong bo co ny l khng ln cho thy rng bin t gi linh ng ln hn cn phi c km theo cc chnh sch khc cn bng li tng trng. Chng bao gm vic thi hnh quy nh v mi trng v t do ha th trng t ai, lao ng, nhin liu v vn. Sau khi Trung Quc bt u t do ha th trng sn phm ca mnh vo cui nhng nm 1970, tng trng bng n v lng. T do ha cc th trng yu t sn xut v chng suy thoi mi trng tng t c th gip cho mt s bng n tng trng v cht.

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