1.

Gii thiu tng quan m hnh mng (SEM) Mt trong nhng k thut phc hp v linh hot nht s dng phn tch mi quan h phc tp trong m hnh nhn qu l m hnh mng SEM (Structural Equation Modeling). M hnh SEM c s dng rng ri trong cc lnh vc nghin cu nh tm l hc (Anderson & Gerbing,1988; Hansell v White, 1991), x hi hc (Lavee, 1988; Lorence v Mortimer, 1985), nghin cu s pht trin ca tr em (Anderson, 1987; Biddle v Marlin,1987) v trong lnh vc qun l (Tharenou, Latimer v Conroy,1994). c bit m hnh ny cng c ng dng trong rt nhiu m hnh tha mn khch hng nh : ngnh dch v thng tin di ng (M.-K. Kim et al. / Telecommunications Policy 28 (2004) 145159). M hnh SEM l s m rng ca m hnh tuyn tnh tng qut (GLM) cho php nh nghin cu kim nh mt tp hp phng trnh hi quy cng mt lc. SEM c th cho mt m hnh phc hp ph hp vi d liu nh cc b d liu kho st trong di hn(longitudinal), phn tch nhn t khng nh (CFA), cc m hnh khng chun ho,c s d liu c cu trc sai s t tng quan, d liu vi cc bin s khng chun(Non-Normality) , hay d liu b thiu (missing data). c bit, SEM s dng c lng cc m hnh o lng (Mesurement Model) v m hnh cu trc (Structure Model) ca bi ton l thuyt a bin. M hnh o lng ch r quan h gia cc bin tim n (Latent Variables) v cc bin quan st (observed variables).N cung cp thng tin v thuc tnh o lng ca bin quan st ( tin cy, gi tr). M hnh cu trc ch r mi quan h gia cc bin tim n vi nhau. Cc mi quan h ny c th m t nhng d bo mang tnh l thuyt m cc nh nghin cu quan tm. M hnh SEM phi hp c tt c cc k thut nh hi quy a bin, phn tch nhn t v phn tch mi quan h h tng (gia cc phn t trong s mng) cho php chng ta kim tra mi quan h phc hp trong m hnh. Khc vi nhng k thut thng k khc ch cho php c lng mi quan h ring phn ca tng cp nhn t (phn t) trong m hnh c in (m hnh o lng), SEM cho php c lng ng thi cc phn t trong tng th m hnh, c lng mi quan h nhn qu gia cc khi nim tim n (Latent Constructs) qua cc ch s kt hp c o lng v cu trc ca m hnh l thuyt, o cc mi quan h n nh (recursive) v khng n nh (non-recursive), o cc nh hng trc tip cng nh gin tip, k c sai s o v tng quan phn d. Vi k thut phn tch nhn t khng nh (CFA) m hnh SEM cho php linh ng tm kim m hnh ph hp nht trong cc m hnh ngh.

2. Cng dng v li th ca m hnh mng (SEM) Kim nh cc gi thuyt v cc quan h nhn qu c ph hp (FIT) vi d liu thc nghim hay khng. Kim nh khng nh (Confirmating) cc quan h gia cc bin. Kim nh cc quan h gia cc bin quan st v khng quan st (bin tim n).

L phng php t hp phng php hi quy, phng php phn tch nhn t, phn tch phng sai c lng gi tr khi nim (cu trc nhn t) ca cc o trc khi phn tch s ng (path analysis) Cho php thc hin ng thi nhiu bin ph thuc (ni sinh). Cung cp cc ch s ph hp cho cc m hnh kim nh.

Cho php ci thin cc m hnh km ph hp bng cch s dng linh hot cc h s iu chnh MI (Modification Indices).

 SEM cung cp cc cng c c gi tr v thng k, khi dng thng tin o lng hiu chun cc quan h gi thuyt gia cc bin tim n. SEM gip gi thuyt cc m hnh, kim nh thng k chng (v EFA v hi quy c th khng bn vng nht qun v mt thng k) SEM thng l mt phc hp gia mt s lng ln cc bin quan st v tim n, cc phn d v sai s. SEM gi nh c mt cu trc nhn qu gia cc bin tim n c th l cc t hp tuyn tnh ca cc bin quan st, hoc l cc bin tham gia trong mt chui nhn qu. 3. Cc phn t trong m hnh mng (SEM) Bin quan st (Observed variable): cn gi l bin ch bo (cu to/phn nh), bin o lng, bin ngoi sinh hay bin c lpty trng hp c th.Trong hnh 1a, m hnh bin quan st c biu din bng hnh ch nht (V1, V2, V3). Bin V1, V2, V3 c mi tn i ra nn trong trng hp ny cn c gi l bin ngoi sinh hay bin c lp (trong m hnh truyn thng). Trong hnh 1b, m hnh bin quan st V1, V2, V3phn nh bin tim n F v bin tim n F ng vai tr bin ngoi sinh (nguyn nhn) trong m hnh SEM. (s ni k hn phn phn bit bin ch bo cu to v bin ch bo phn nh pha di)

Hnh 1: M hnh biu din quan h gia cc bin quan st v bin tim n

S lin kt ca cc bin quan st (ch bo) vi cc bin tim n (khng quan st) l bc u tin trong mt th tc thng k hnh thc. Tri li thng thng cc th tc lin kt thng n tng-nu ta cm thy mt bin o c no c ch bo tt ca mt khi nim tim n no , th chng ta s dng n.

Bin tim n(Latent Variable): cn gi l nhn t, bin ni sinh hay bin ph thuc trong m hnh truyn thng(hnh 1a). Tri li, trong m hnh SEM, bin tim n trc tip nh hng kt qu hay gi tr ca bin quan st v biu din di dng hnh ellipse(F1) nh hnh 2. Bin tim n (nhn t) F1 th hin mt khi nim l thuyt, khng th o trc tip c m phi thng qua cc bin quan st V1, V2,V3. Trng hp ny bin F1 cn c gi l nhn t c s (Underlying factor), trong m hnh o lng.

Hnh 2: V d v mt m hnh o lng Cc bin tim n hay cc nhn t c s (F1, F2, F3) hay cc sai s o lng (e1,e2,e3) c th tng quan vi nhau ( mi tn 2 chiu) hay c th nh hng trc tip bin tim n khc (mi tn 1 chiu). Bin F3 trn hnh v c cc mi tn i vo nn cn c gi l bin ni sinh hay bin ph thuc ( trong m hnh hi quy hay m hnh cu trc).

Hnh 3:V d mt m hnh cu trc

S hng sai s v phn d (Error & Disturbance):

S hng sai s ei biu th sai s ca cc bin o lng, trong khi di biu th cho nhiu hoc sai s lin quan vi gi tr d bo ca cc nhn t(bin) ni sinh t cc nhn t(bin) ngoi sinh hay cn gi l phn d ca c lng hi quy. Trong m hnh o lng ca SEM (hnh 4), mi bin ni sinh c mt s hng sai s (ei) hay nhiu (di), n th hin tnh khng chc chn v khng chnh xc ca s o lng, ng thi n cn th hin tnh cht ny cho c cc bin cha c pht hin v khng c o lng trong m hnh.

Hnh 4: cc phn t c bn trong m hnh SEM

Lu rng bin ni sinh l bin ph thuc vo bin khc ( V1,V2,V6 v F3) c mi tn vo/ra, cn bin ngoi sinh l bin khng ph thuc vo bin khc (F1, F2) ch c mi tn i ra (khng c bt k nhiu d hay bt k sai s e no). H s ti (factor loadings) trong khi mi tn mt chiu gia cc khi nim tim n v cc bin quan st li biu th h s hi quy (regression coefficients) Tm li, Mt m hnh SEM c trng l mt phc hp gia mt s lng ln cc bin quan st v khng quan st, cc s hng phn d v cc sai s.

Bin trung gian (Mediator): Gi X l bin nguyn nhn gc, M l bin trung gian tim nng (hnh 5), v Y l bin kt qu. xc nh M l bin trung gian: a) Chng minh rng X ---- > Y : Y lin quan vi X, b) Chng minh rng X ---- > M : M lin quan vi X, c) Chng minh rng M --- > Y l lin kt c ngha trong hi quy hai bin d bo d) Gi nh cc kim nh trn u tha mn, khi : i) Nu lin kt : X -- >Y khng c ngha c) : M trung gian ton phn; ii) Nu lin kt : X --- >Y c ngha c) : M trung gian mt phn.

Hnh 5: Bin trung gia trong m hnh SEM

Nu mt khi nim ( construct) lm trung gian trong tc ng ca cc bin ngai sinh ln mt bin ph thuc, phi a cc quan h chc nng ny vo m hnh. Cc bin ngai sinh nu l bin trung gian mt phn(tc l mt lin kt trc tip hay gin tip vi mt bin ph thuc) thng l cc bin d bo quan trng hn cho mt bin ph thuc, hn l cc bin tng t: bin trung gian ton phn. Nu cc tc ng trung gian khng c xem xt thch hp ta c th b nhm ln v s quan trng tng i ca cc nhn t khc nhau trong s tc ng ln mt khi nim. Phn bit khi nim n tng v khi nim Tng minh

 Bin ch bo phn nh (Reflective Indicators) c quan h lin i vi nhau, s thay i ca mt bin ch bo ny ko theo s thay i ca bin ch bo khc th hin qua tnh nht qun cc b c o bng h s Cronbachs Alpha. Bin ch bo cu to (Formative Indicators) khng cn thit c lin quan vi nhau, s thay i ca mt bin ch bo ny khng nh hng n cc bin ch bo khc, do vy khng p dng o tnh nht qun. Hai khi nim ny c phi hp li trong m hnh nghin cu trong bin ch bo cu to l nguyn nhn trong khi bin ch bo phn nh th phn nh kt qu.

4. Tnh xc nh ca m hnh SEM

Tnh xc nh c ngha l c t nht mt li gii c nht cho mi c lng thng s trong mt m hnh SEM. S thng s cn c lng bng s phng sai (Variance) hay hip phng sai(Covariance) ca cc bin ngoi sinh (bin quan st hay khng quan st) v cc tc ng trc tip ca cc bin quan st ln cc bin ni sinh. xc nh m hnh nghin cu thuc loi m hnh no trong ba loi m hnh Va xc nh- Just Identification; Km xc nh- Under Identification hay Qu xc nh- Over Identification th cn phi tnh ton s bc t do ca m hnh. Bc t do l s khc bit gia tng s d liu quan st u vo (data points) v tng s cc thng s c lng trong SEM , c xc nh bng cng thc sau:

df = 1/2[(p + q)(p + q +1)] t Trong : p= s cc bin ch bo ni sinh q= s cc bin ch bo ngoi sinh (p+q = s bin quan st) t= S cc thng s c lng [(p+q)(p+q+1) = S quan st hay hip phng sai trong ma trn (data points)

M hnh va xc nh (Just Identification): M hnh c df =0 v ch c mt li gii kh d cho mi c lng thng s. V d: 2x+y =7; 3x+2y=11 M hnh km xc nh (Under Identification): M hnh c df < 0 v c v s cc gi tr c lng thng s. Vi d : 2x +y =7, M hnh qu xc nh(Over Identification): M hnh c df > 0 v c hn mt li gii kh d (nhng c mt li gii ti u hay tt nht i vi mi c lng thng s). M hnh qu xc nh xy ra khi mi thng s c xc nh v t nht mt thng s th qu xc nh (c nhiu hn mt phng trnh cho c lng thng s ny). Thng thng m hnh qu xc nh c a thch hn, c bc t do dng (df>0). Mc tiu l t c df cng ln cng tt.

 Vic t cc hn ch (rng buc) trn m hnh qu xc nh cho chng ta kim nh cc gi thuyt (dng Chi Square v cc ch s khc). S xc nh l mt yu cu v cu trc hay ton hc c th tin hnh phn tch SEM. S km xc nh trong thc nghim xut hin khi c mt thng s c lng tnh xc nh ca m hnh c gi tr gn bng 0. Do tnh cht lp ca c lng SEM, mt thng s c lng (phng sai chng hn) bt u vi gi tr dng v tin dn v gi tr 0. Trong nghin cu m hnh SEM cn c gng xc nh nguyn nhn ca tnh km xc nh l do cu trc hay km xc nh do thc nghim. o Nu km xc nh do cu trc: Xc nh li m hnh.

o Nu km xc nh do thc nghim: iu chnh bng cch thu thp thm d liu hay xc nh li m hnh. 5. CC DNG M HNH Theo Vinod Kumar, Deregouska,2003 th m hnh SEM gm hai m hnh c lin quan vi nhau l m hnh o lng v m hnh cu trc. C hai m hnh u c xc nh c th bi nh nghin cu: 5.1 M hnh o lng: M hnh o lng cn gi l m hnh nhn t, m hnh ngoi din t cch cc bin quan st th hin v gii thch cc bin tim n th no: tc l din t cu trc nhn t (bin tim n), ng thi din t cc c tnh o lng ( tin cy, gi tr) ca cc bin quan st. Cc m hnh o lng cho cc bin c lp c th n hng, c th tng quan hay c th xc nh cc bin tim n bc cao hn. M hnh o lng ( hnh 7) cho thy cc lin h thng k gia cc bin quan st, ta c th dng chun ho m hnh cu trc c bn. Cc bin tim n c ni kt bng cc quan h dng hi quy chun ho, tc l c lng cc gi tr cho cc h s hi quy.

Hnh 7 : M hnh o lng

M hnh o lng dng phn tch nhn t nh gi mc m bin quan st ti ln cc khi nim tim n ca chng. nh gi gi tr (hi t v phn bit) ca cc bin quan st s dng k thut phn tch nhn t khng nh(CFA) v ma trn Covariance da trn m hnh SEM,. 5.2 M hnh cu trc: Xc nh cc lin kt (quan h nhn qu) gia cc bin tim n bng mi tn ni kt, v gn cho chng cc phng sai gii thch v cha gii thch, to thnh cu trc nhn qu c bn. Bin tim n c c lng bng hi quy bi ca cc bin quan st. M hnh SEM khng cho php s dng khi nim biu th bi bin quan st n.Thng thng bin tim n o lng bi t nht l trn mt bin, hay t 3 n ti a l 7 bin quan st.[Hair et al, Chap 11, 2000] M hnh SEM c th c nhiu dng khc nhau:

Hnh 8: M hnh SEM v cc phn t c bn ca n

a) Mt bin tim n c lp n c th d bo mt bin tim n ph thuc n. b) Vi bin tim n c th tng quan trong d bo mt bin ph thuc no . c) Mt bin tim n c lp c th d bo mt bin tim n khc, ri bin ny li d bo mt bin th ba 5.3 M hnh xc lp (recursive) M hnh c 02 c im c bn : Cc s hng sai s ca n khng c tng quan vi nhau Mi tc ng nhn qu u n hng.

M hnh Recursive c s dng ph bin trong cc m hnh nghin cu nh u im l d m hnh ho, c tnh n nh hn nhiu so vi m hnh Non-Recursive, v lun c xc nh (c trnh by c th trong phn 2.3.3 Tnh xc nh ca m hnh)

Hnh 9: M hnh SEM vi trng thi xc lp (n nh) ca n

X, Y : Bin ngoi sinh E: S hng sai s W, Z: Bin ni sinh <---> Covariance (Tng quan ) 5.4 M hnh khng xc lp (Non-Recursive) Hnh 10: M hnh SEM vi trng thi cha xc lp (khng n nh)

M hnh Non-Recursive c vng lp phn hi gia cc bin ni sinh, hoc: Khi hai bin ni sinh nh hng ln nhau, tc l c vng lp phn hi (1) , hoc: C vng lp gia hai bin ni sinh v cc s hng sai s ca hai bin ni sinh (2)

M hnh Non-recursive ch c tnh tm thi, khng n nh so vi m hnh Recursive, Ngai ra, m hnh recursive d s dng nn thng thng nu c th cc nh nghin cu thng quy i m hnh Non-Recursive v m hnh Recursive. 5.5 M hnh bo ho (Saturated Model): M hnh bo ho (hnh 11) cha rt nhiu cc thng s cn c lng bng vi s u vo(input) trong phn tch.V vy m hnh ny khng c bc t do(df=0). y l m hnh t hn ch(rng buc) nht m n c th ph hp vi b d liu.

Hnh 11: M hnh bo ha ca SEM

5.6 M hnh c lp (Independence Model) M hnh c lp (Hnh 12) l m hnh c nhiu rng buc nht m n c th ph hp vi b d liu, c ti a s bc t do. N ch cha cc c lng phng sai ca cc bin quan st, tc l gi nh cc quan h gia cc bin quan st khng c.

Hnh 12: M hnh c lp ca SEM

5.7 M hnh SEM tng qut : Cho php m hnh gm nhiu khi nim tim n c ch bo bi cc bin quan st ( c lp v ph thuc) v cho c cc quan h n nh (Recursive) v khng n nh (nonrecursive) gia cc bin khi nim. Tm li m hnh SEM l s kt hp gia m hnh o lng v m hnh cu trc 6.1 Phn tch nhn t khm ph( EFA) : c dng n trong trng hp mi quan h gia cc bin quan st v bin tim n l khng r rng hay khng chc chn.Phn tch EFA theo c tin hnh theo kiu khm ph xc nh xem phm vi, mc quan h gia cc bin quan st v cc nhn t c s nh th no, lm nn tng cho mt tp hp cc php o rt gn hay gim bt s bin quan st ti ln cc nhn t c s. Cc nhn t c s l t hp tuyn tnh (s cu to) ca cc bin m t bng h phng trnh sau:

S lng cc nhn t c s tu thuc vo m hnh nghin cu, trong chng rng buc nhau bng cch xoay cc vector trc giao nhau khng xy ra hin tng tng quan. Phn tch nhn t khm ph EFA rt hu dng trong bc thc nghim ban u hay m rng kim nh. 6.2 Phn tch nhn t khng nh (CFA): s dng thch hp khi nh nghin cu c sn mt s kin thc v cu trc bin tim n c s. Trong mi quan h hay gi thuyt (c c t l thuyt hay thc nghim) gia bin quan st v nhn t c s th c cc nh nghin cu mc nhin tha nhn trc khi tin hnh kim nh thng k.Nh vy CFA l bc tip theo ca EFA nhm kim nh xem c mt m hnh l thuyt c trc lm nn tng cho mt tp hp cc quan st khng. CFA cng l mt dng ca SEM. Khi xy dng CFA, cc bin quan st cng l cc bin ch bo trong m hnh o lng, bi v chng cng ti ln khi nim l thuyt c s. Phng php phn tch nhn t khng nh CFA chp nhn cc gi thuyt ca cc nh nghin cu, c xc nh cn c theo quan h gia mi bin v mt hay nhiu hn mt nhn t. Sau y l mt m hnh SEM s dng k thut phn tch CFA:

Hnh 13: M hnh o lng v m hnh cu trc ca SEM

X1 = 11 1 + 1 X2 = 22 2 + 2 X3 = 31 1 + 32 2 + 3, ( i l cc nhn t chung, Xi l cc nhn t xc nh) Trong : l cc h s ti, cc nhn t chung i c th c tng quan vi nhau, cc nhn t xc nh Xi cng c th tng quan vi nhau. Phng sai ca mt nhn t xc nh l duy nht. Phng trnh biu din m hnh mt cch tng qut dng ma trn ca x nh sau: x = x + Cov(x, ) = = E(xx) = E [(x +)(x +)] = E[(x +)(x +)] = x E()x + xE()x + E() Bit : = E(xx); = E(); = E() Vi x; x; ; ln lc l ma trn chuyn v ca ma trn x; x; ;. Cui cng phng trnh Covariance c vit gn nh sau: x = x x + x

Tng t i vi phng trnh dng ma trn ca y v ma trn Covariance: y = y + y = y y + y 7. MA TRN CU TRC CA M HNH MNG (CSM) (hnh 14) n v phn tch trong m hnh mng (SEM) l cc ma trn phng sai (VAR) hay hip phng sai(COV). Tng qut th tc SEM xc nh mt ma trn l thuyt hm (ma trn tng quan k vng) bi m hnh nghin cu. Do vy cc u vo cn thit ca SEM l cc d liu th hay mment mu c tnh t d liu ( VAR, COV, h s tng quan hay cc moment khc) v m hnh ang c nh gi. M hnh bao gm mt tp hp cc phng trnh xut, vi vi thng s ban u c gn gi tr c nh v cc thng s cn c lng (mean, variance, regression weight..) Mc ch ca ma trn VAR v COV trong SEM dng xc nh cc mi quan h gia cc phn t trong m hnh bng cch c lng ma trn tng quan k vng (tng th), so snh vi ma trn tng quan ca d liu quan st (mu) thng qua kim nh Chi square. S khc bit gia tng quan c lng v tng quan quan st ca hai ma trn ny th hin trong s thay i gi tr Chi square, n ch ra mc ph hp ca m hnh vi d liu nh th no (Chi square khng c ngha (p > 0.05) biu th mt s ph hp tt). Kim nh Chi square bao gm c tng quan ca bin quan st v tng quan k vng

Hnh 14: M hnh cu trc hip phng sai (CSM- Covariance Structural Modeling)

SEM gi nh cc thnh phn sai s ngu nhin trong m hnh c phn phi chun a bin ( biu din bng hnh ellipse). Vi gi nh ny cho php dng phng php ML ( Maximum Likelihood) c lng cc h s trong m hnh. Trong trng hp cc iu kin c lng ML khng tho mn, nh cc bin phn loi (categorical) chng hn th phi s dng phng php c lng LS. Tt c cc phng php c lng trong SEM u i hi kch thc mu ln. Ngoi ra cc thnh phn ngu nhin trong SEM cng i hi sai s o lng ca x (hay ca y), tc l (hay ) khng tng quan vi cc bin tim n c lp (hay ph thuc ). ng thi sai s phng trnh trong m hnh cu trc gia cc bin tim n c lp v tim n ph thuc th khng tng quan vi cc sai s o lng ca cc bin ch bo quan st ( x v y), tc l khng c tng quan vi (hay ). 8. S NG (Path Diagram)

Nu cu trc ca mt m hnh ch biu th bng cc phng trnh th rt phc tp v kh hiu. n gin ho v thun tin trong phn tch, ngi ta biu din mi quan h cc nhn t di dng s ng ca c m hnh o lng v m hnh cu trc. Khi nim bin ngoi sinh trong m hnh cn gi l bin ngun hay bin c lp v n khng chu tc ng ca bin d bo hay bin no khc trong m hnh. Khi nim bin ni sinh c d bo bi mt hay nhiu khi nim khc. 9. PHN TCH S NG (Path Analysis) Phn tch s ng hay cn gi l m hnh nhn qu, tp trung vo vic kho st mng li quan h gia cc bin o lng, mi quan h nhn qu gia hai hay nhiu bin, cng ca cc quan h trc tip v gin tip, c th phn tch c cc quan h trung gian (X>Y->Z). Phng trnh cu trc :

Trong phn tch s ng cc phn t bin c quan h nh hng trc tip v gin tip nhau. Trong s nhn qu trn ta c: nh hng trc tip : X3 gm nh hng ca X1 v X2, X4 gm nh hng ca X2 v X3, X5 ch nh hng trc tip bi X2 Y gm nh hng ca X4 v X5 nh hng gin tip: L nh hng ca mt bin thng qua mt bin khc, v d: X1 nh hng ln X4 thng qua X3

X1 nh hng ln Y mt cch gin tip thng qua X3 v X4. nh hng gia cc bin biu th bng cc h s tng quan. Ton b cc nh hng gia cc bin trong m hnh SEM to nn ma trn tng quan cu trc: r13 = p31 ; r23 = p32 ; r14 =p43 . p31 r24 =p43. p32 + p42; r25 = p52 ry = py4.p42 + py4 . p43. p32 + py5.p52 Quy tc: Tng quan cu trc gia hai bin th bng tng cc tc ng trc tip v gin tip c kh nng xy ra. Gi s c ma trn tng quan ca cc bin quan st X1, X2 v X3 nh sau: X1 X1 X2 X3 1.0 X2 r12 1.0 X3 r13 r23 1.0

Gi thit mt m hnh cu trc (M1) dng kim nh l :

M hnh ny c biu din bng cc phng trnh sau 12 = p21 13 = p31 +p32. p21 qua X2) 23 = p32 + p31. p21 ln X3 v X2) (p: he so hoi quy rieng phan chuan hoa) (nh hng trc tip ca X1 ln X3 cng vi nh hng gin tip (nh hng trc tip ca X2 ln X3 cng vi nh hng ca X1

ij biu din tng quan ti cu trc hay tng quan c lng trn c s m hnh l thuyt trn y. H s hi quy c th c lng bng phng php hi quy a bin trn c s m hnh cho v c th dng ti cu trc li ma trn tng quan. Tng quan ca cc quan st bng d liu: X1 X1 X2 X3 1.0 X2 X3

r 12(o) r13(o) 1.0 r23(o) 1.0

Tng quan ti cu trc trn c s m hnh s ng: X1 X1 X2 X3 1.0 X2 12 (e) 1.0 X3 13(e) 23(e) 1.0

So snh cc phn t ca hai ma trn tng quan ny cng ging nhau th gi tr Chi square cng nh.

Lu rng mi m hnh thay th c mt tp tng quan k vng khc nhau lm cho m hnh tt hn hoc xu i. Gi s m hnh l thuyt trn by gi l (M2)

Hu ht cc m hnh nhn qu u tin hnh so snh chn ra m hnh ph hp nht. Mi m hnh c mt gi tr Chi square ng vi s bc t do nht nh. Hai m hnh M1 v M2 ging nhau nhng M2 b i mi quan h X1 v X2. ngha ca s tng /gim ph hp trong trng hp ny l : 2(1)-2(2) vi df = df1 df2 (hay cn xc nh bng ch s s thay i ca Chi square trn mt bc t do)

Mi ng biu din mt quan h gia hai bin th tng ng vi mt gi thuyt nghin cu, khng c kim nh xc nh hng. Phn tch nhn qu l phn tch cc tp hp con ca m hnh SEM nh hnh di y:

Hnh 15: M hnh o lng con v s kt hp ca chng trong m hnh cu trc ca SEM

Phn tch nhn qu ch cp n cc bin o lng, l s m rng ca hi quy, c tnh ng thi v dng o tng hp. Phn tch nhn qu l k thut xc nh quan h trc tip v gin tip gia cc bin s, l cc lin kt gi thuyt gia cc bin ngoi sinh v bin ni sinh, l hiu ng trc tip hay chnh l h s hi quy. Lin kt gin tip (hay hiu ng gin tip) qua bin trung gian bng tch ca hai hay nhiu h s hi quy. H s nhn qu bng h s tng quan hay hi quy (thng chun ho) lin kt cc bin s.Nu ch c mt lin kt gia hai bin s, h s nhn qu bng h s tng quan. ngha ca h s nhn qu chnh l t s gii hn CR = /SE = Z-Statistic; CR > 1.96 c ngha ti p=0.05 hay CR = 2.5 ti mc ngha 0.01. 10. TM TT CC BC THNG K TRONG SEM 1) Kim tra tin cy ca thang o Bng h s Cronbachs Alpha.[Hair et al, 1998, Segar, 1997] c lng cc h s hi quy v tvalue

 Phn tch nhn t khng nh (CFA): thc hin trn m hnh o lng loi cc bin c h s ti nhn t tim n thp. C th thc hin kim nh CFA trn tng m hnh con (Sub Model) trc khi kim nh m hnh tng th(tp hp cc m hnh con kim nh ng thi). Thng k SMC ( Square Multiple Correlation) cho mi khi nim tim n ngoi sinh (kt qu phn tch CFA ca m hnh o lng nu trn), tng t h s R2 trong hi quy tuyn tnh, SMC l phng sai gii thch ca mi khi nim tim n [Bollen, 1989] 2) Mc ph hp ca tng th m hnh Bn cht ca m hnh SEM l i hi cc nh nghin cu trc ht thc hin khai bo cc gi tr xut pht ban u c gi l m hnh gi thit. T m hnh gi thit, thng qua mt chui vng lp cc ch s bin i cui cng cung cp cho nh nghin cu mt m hnh xc lp, c kh nng gii thch ti a s ph hp gia m hnh vi b d liu thu thp thc t. S ph hp ca ton b m hnh trn thc t c nh gi thng qua cc tiu ch v mc ph hp nh sau: i) Kim nh Chi-Square (2) : biu th mc ph hp tng qut ca ton b m hnh ti mc ngha pv = 0.05 [Joserkog & Sorbom, 1989]. iu ny thc t rt kh xy ra bi v 2 rt nhy vi kch thc mu ln v mnh ca kim nh, nn thc t ngi ta dng ch s 2 / df nh gi, ii) T s Chi-Square/bc t do (X2/df ): cng dng o mc ph hp mt cch chi tit hn ca c m hnh. Mt s tc gi ngh 1 < 2/df < 3 [Hair et al, 1998]; mt s khc ngh2 cng nh cng tt [Segar, Grover, 1993] v cho rng 2/df < 3:1 [Chin & Todd, 1995] Ngoi ra, trong mt s nghin cu thc t ngi ta phn bit ra 2 trng hp : 2/df < 5(vi mu N >200) ; hay < 3 (khi c mu N < 200) th m hnh c xem l ph hp tt [Kettinger v Lee,1995]. iii) Cc ch s lin quan khc:,GFI, AGFI, CFI, NFI, .. c gi tr > 0.9 c xem l m hnh ph hp tt. Nu cc gi tr ny bng 1, ta ni m hnh l hon ho. [Segar, Grover, 1993] & [Chin & Todd, 1995] GFI: o ph hp tuyt i ( khng iu chnh bc t do) ca m hnh cu trc v m hnh o lng vi b d liu kho st. AGFI: iu chnh gi tr GFI theo bc t do trong m hnh.

 RMR: Mt mt nh gi phng sai phn d ca bin quan st, mt khc nh gi tng quan phn d ca mt bin quan st ny vi tng quan phn d ca mt bin quan st khc.. Gi tr RMR cng ln ngha l phng sai phn d cng cao, n phn nh mt m hnh c ph hp khng tt. RMSEA : l mt ch tiu quan trng, n xc nh mc ph hp ca m hnh so vi tng th. Trong tp ch nghin cu IS, cc tc gi cho rng ch s RMSEA, RMR yu cu < 0.05 th m hnh ph hp tt. Trong mt s trng hp gi tr ny < 0.08 m hnh c chp nhn. [Taylor, Sharland, Cronin v Bullard, 1993]. NFI: o s khc bit phn b chun ca 2 gia m hnh c lp (n nhn t, c cc h s bng 0) vi php o phng sai v m hnh a nhn t. NFI = (2 null - 2 proposed) / 2 null = (2 Mo - 2 Mn) / 2 Mo Mo : M hnh gc; Mn : M hnh ph hp Gi tr ngh NFI > 0.9 [Hair et al, 1998] & [Chin & Todd, 1995] . iv) Mc xc sut : gi tr > .05 c xem l m hnh ph hp tt.[Arbuckle v Wothke, 1999; Rupp v Segal, 1989]. iu ny c ngha rng khng th bc b gi thuyt H0 (l gi thuyt m hnh tt), tc l khng tm kim c m hnh no tt hn m hnh hin ti) Ngoi ra cc quan h ring l cng c nh gi tt da trn cc mc ngha thng k. Tc ng ca cc bin ngoi sinh ln cc bin ni sinh v tc ng ca cc bin ni sinh ln cc bin ni sinh c nh gi qua cc h s hi quy. Mi quan h gia cc bin c biu th bng mi tn trn m hnh. Chiu mi tn biu din chiu tc ng ca bin ny ln bin kia. ng vi mt mi quan h ta c mt gi thuyt tng ng (nh trnh by phn u chng ny v cc gi thuyt v m hnh nghin cu). Trong cc nghin cu thuc lnh vc khoa hc x hi, tt c cc mi quan h nhn qu ngh c tin cy mc 95% (p = .05)[Cohen,1988] 3) Ch s iu chnh m hnh (MI - Modification Indices) Ch s iu chnh m hnh l ch s c lng s thay i ca 2 ng vi mi trng hp thm vo mt mi quan h kh d (ng vi mt bc t do). Nu 2 >3.84 (ng vi mt bc t do), cho php ta ngh mt mi quan h lm tng ph hp ca m hnh. .[Hair et al, 1998]. (xem li phn 3 Phn tch s ng, so snh thay i 2 gia m hnh M1 & M2). iu ny cng tng t nh a tng bin c lp vo trong m hnh hi quy tuyn tnh. Tuy vy nh nghin cu nn thn trng bi v mi quan h thm vo m hnh

ch c xem xt khi n ng h l thuyt v khng nn c gng mi cch ci thin cc ch s nhm lm cho m hnh ph hp hn [Bullock et al, 1994; Hair et al, 1998].Cc ch s ph hp tt ch ra rng d liu ng h m hnh ngh, nhng chng khng c ngha rng m hnh la chn l chnh xc hay l m hnh tt nht trong s cc m hnh kh thi v mt l thuyt. 4) Kim tra c lng m hnh bng phng php Boostrap M hnh cui cng cng nh cc m hnh ph hp khc cn thit phi c b d liu c lp vi nhau, hay c mu ban u kh ln. Trong phng php nghin cu nh lng bng phng php ly mu, thng thng chng ta phi bng cch chia mu thnh 02 mu con. Mu con th nht dng c lng cc tham s m hnh v mu con th hai dng nh gi li: a. nh c mu con th nht dng khm ph, b. Dng c mu con th hai nh gi cho Ch s nh gi cho CVI (Cross-Validation Index) o khong cch gia ma trn Covariance ph hp trong mu con th nht vi ma trn Covariance ca mu. Ch s CVI nh nht cho php k vng trng thi mu lp li cng n nh. Cch khc l lp li nghin cu bng mt mu khc. Hai cch trn y thng khng thc t v phng php phn tch m hnh cu trc thng i hi mu ln nn vic lm ny tn km nhiu thi gian, chi ph [Anderson & Gerbing 1998]. Trong nhng trng hp nh vy th Boostrap l phng php ph hp thay th[Schumacker & Lomax 1996]. Boostrap la phng php ly mu li c thay th trong mu ban u ng vai tr m ng. Phng php Boostrap thc hin vi s mu lp li l N ln. Kt qu c lng t N mu c tnh trung bnh v gi tr ny c xu hng gn n c lng ca tng th. Khong chnh lch gia gi tr trung bnh c lng bng Boostrap v c lng m hnh vi mu ban u cng nh cho php kt lun cc c lng m hnh c th tin cy c. 11. CNG C THNG K NG DNG TRONG SEM Hin nay c nhiu cng c phn mm h tr qu trnh thng k, phn tch v xc nh m hnhSEM nh : AMOS, LISREL, EQS, MPLUS c cc nh nghin cu s dng rt ph bin trong cc ti nghin cu. Mt trong nhng cng c ph bin nht l phn mm AMOS vi u im l : (a) d s dng nh module tch hp chung vi phn mm ph bin l SPSS v (b) d dng xy dng cc mi quan h gia cc bin, nhn t (phn t

m hnh) bng trc quan hnh hc nh cng c AMOS Graphics. Kt qu c biu th trc tip trn m hnh hnh hc, nh nghin cu cn c vo cc ch s kim nh cc gi thuyt, ph hp ca tng th m hnh mt cch d dng, nhanh chng. Phn ng dng chi tit cng c AMOS phn tch d liu s c trnh trong mt lot bi khc. Mi qu v n c. Phm c K