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3. Vn dng
Ta c bng s liu
Gi tr mt hng xut khu tng thng nm 2010
n v: nghn USD
Thng
Thng 1
yi
y1
Gi tr
5013448
Thng 2
y2
3850885
Thng 3
y3
5592582
Thng 4
y4
5279472
Thng 5
y5
6390601
Thng 6
y6
6338798
Thng 7
y7
6055338
Thng 8
y8
6879308
Thng 9
y9
6125842
Thng 10
y10
6304736
Thng 11
y11
6698420
Thng 12
y12
7663449
2 = = = 4 818 971,7
3 =
= = 4 907 646,3
11
= = = 6 888 535
T , ta thu c bng kt qu sau :
i
Gi tr
4 818 971,7
4 907 646,3
5 754 218,3
6 002 957
6 261 579
6 424 481,3
6 353 496
6 436 628,7
10
6 376 332,7
11
6 888 535
3. Tc ng v mc ch ca vic nghin cu
Bin ng thi v lm mt s ngnh khi th cng thng, khn trng, khi th
nhn ri, b thu hp li.
V d: khi n ma h cc khch sn, nh ngh gn cc bi bin rt ng khch,
nhng ngy bnh thng li rt vng
Qua nghin cu bin ng thi v c th ra cc ch trng bin php ph
hp, kp thi, hn ch nhng nh hng ca bin ng thi v i vi sn xut
v sinh hot ca x hi
2008
2009
2010
131,40
121,33
144,564
II
100,30
117,07
125,197
III
146,14
163,13
218,347
IV
166,58
229,63
304,477
Ngun: http://wap.cophieu68.com
S dng phng php bin ng thi v phn tch s bin ng v doanh thu
cua cng ty.
Ta c bng:
Nm
2008
2009
131,40
121,33
II
100,30
III
146,14
IV
C nm
2010
Ch s thi v
ITV (%)
Qu
144,564
80,74
125,197
69,62
163,13
218,347
107,23
166,58
229,63
304,477
142,40
544,42
631,16
792,585
117,07
== 233,562 (t ng)
Ch s thi v:
ITV= . 100% = . 100% = 142,40 %
Nhn xt: Doanh thu ca cng ty c bin ng thi v. C th :
Doanh thu ca cng ty tng nhanh v mnh nht vo qu IV , tng 42,40% so
vi mc bnh qun chung ca mt qu.
Doanh thu qu III tng nh ; tng 7,23% so vi mc bnh qun chung
Doanh thu ca cng ty gim vo qu I v qu II
Doanh thu ca cng ty gim mnh nht vo qu II ; gim 30,38%
Qu I doanh thu ca cng ty gim 19,26% so vi mc bnh qun chung
yt = a0 + a1t
=>PT hi quy biu din xu hng bin ng ca hin tng theo thi gian.
Trong : yt: Mc l thuyt.
a0,a1,.....an: Cc tham s
t: th t thi gian.
Xc nh a0, a1:
Ta c a0, a1 tha mn h PT:
ngha:
a1: L h s hi quy, phn nh xu hng bi ng ca hin tng theo thi gian.
C th l, khi thi gian thay i th mc ca dy s thay i bnh qun l a1.
Bc 2: iu chnh dy s
3. Vn dng
Xc nh phng trnh hi quy phn nh xu hng bin ng ca bi chi ngn
sch nh nc theo thi gian.
n v: T ng
Nm
S Bi chi
2001
25.885
2002
25.597
2003
29.936
2004
34.703
2005
40.746
2006
48.500
2007
56.500
dy s
Nm
S Bi chi (y)
t2
y.t
2001
25.885
25.885
21503,04
2002
25.597
51.194
26805,22
2003
29.936
89.808
32107,40
2004
34.703
16
138.812
37409,58
2005
40.746
25
203.730
42711,76
2006
48.500
36
291.000
48013,94
2007
56.500
49
395.500
53316,12
Tng
261.867
28 140 1.195.929
261867,06
yt = a0 + a1t