GVHD: ThS Nguyn Trung ng

Nhm 4

Nhm thc hnh:

Trong thi gian va qua, th trng chng khon lun c nhng bin ng v to sng
mnh m lm cho khng t ngi mun tham gia th trng. c th gip mi ngi hiu su
hn v lnh vc mi m ny, nhm chng ti thc hin ti Cc yu t nh hng n tng gi
tr nim yt ca mt s cng ty nim yt trn sn HOSE . Kho st ny nhm tm ra mi lin h
gia tng gi tr nim yt trn sn chng khon vi yu t tng n v tng ti sn cua cng ty.
Kho st ny cng gip sinh vin c ci nhn su hn v th trng (khng nhng ch bit nhn
vo bng in t m cn thy c ngha kinh t ng sau nhng con s)
ti cn c th m rng thm mt s bin c lp nh s nh hng ca cc gi tr hp
ng m cng ty ang thc hin hay ch s tng trng hng nm ca cng ty, li nhun sau
thu ca cng ty . . .
S liu c thu thp t bn co bch nm trong h s ng k cho bn chng khon ra
cng chng ca 1 s cng ty nim yt trn s giao dch chng khon thnh ph H Ch Minh (Ho
Chi Minh Stock Exchange - HOSE)
y l ti kh mi m v phc tp nn trong qu trnh lm, Nhm cng mc khng t
thiu st, mong thy gp ti ca Nhm hon thin hn. Nhm xin chn thnh cm n!

TI LIU THAM KHO

1.

Gio trnh Kinh t lng Trng H Ti Chnh MARKETING

2.

Bi ging Kinh T Lng, ThS Nguyn Trung ng

3.

Bi tp Kinh t lng Trng H Kinh t TP H CH MINH

4.

Bi tiu lun nhm ca Nhm SnownStorm Lp K14KKT3

(Trng i hc Kinh t TP HCM).

5.

Bi tp d n Nguyn V Phng

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4/7/2012

GVHD: ThS Nguyn Trung ng

Nhm 4

Nhm thc hnh:

Mc lc
Mc lc2
Thnh vin nhm 4, lp 08DNH1:

12

L Anh Tun

12

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GVHD: ThS Nguyn Trung ng

Nhm 4

Nhm thc hnh:

Chng I
THIT LP M HNH
1.1

Xy dng m hnh
GIATRI= 1 + 2 TAISAN + 3 NO

Ch thch:

GIATRI: Tng Gi tr nim yt ( tnh theo mnh gi ) (ng)

TAISAN: Tng gi tr ti sn hin c ca cng ty (ng)
NO:
Cc khon phi tr ca cng ty (ng)

- Bin ph thuc l GIATRI (Tng Gi tr nim yt ca cc cng ty chng khon TP. H Ch

Minh vi n v tnh l ng).
- Tng gi tr nim yt chu nh hng bi TAISAN ( tng gi tr ti sn hin c ca cng ty :
ng) v NO (Cc khon phi tr ca cng ty : ng).
- GIATRI v NO l hai bin c lp.
1.2

D bo du
Theo quy lut th:
- 2 l dng: khi tng ti sn tng th tng gi tr nim yt trn th trng tng.
- 3 l m: khi tng n tng th tng s tin cng ty cn huy ng trn th trng chng
khon (Tng gi tr nim yt ) gim, do tng n cng ln th kh nng hp dn, thu ht vn s
gim.

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GVHD: ThS Nguyn Trung ng

Nhm 4

Nhm thc hnh:

Chng II
THU THP D LIU

1.1

M hnh
GIATRI= 1 + 2 TAISAN + 3 NO
Ch thch:

GIATRI: Tng Gi tr nim yt ( tnh theo mnh gi ) (ng)

TAISAN: tng gi tr ti sn hin c ca cng ty (ng)
NO:
Cc khon phi tr ca cng ty (ng)

1.2 Bin ph thuc, bin c lp v n v tnh

- Bin ph thuc l GIATRI (Tng Gi tr nim yt ca cc cng ty chng khon TP. H Ch
Minh vi n v tnh l ng).
- Tng gi tr nim yt chu nh hng bi TAISAN ( tng gi tr ti sn hin c ca cng ty :
ng) v NO (Cc khon phi tr ca cng ty : ng).
- GIATRI v NO l hai bin c lp.
1.3

Phm vi thu thp s liu

S liu c thu thp t bn co bch nm trong h s ng k cho bn chng khon ra

cng chng ca mt s cng ty nim yt trn s giao dch chng khon thnh ph H Ch
Minh.
Tng s quan st: 22
B s liu c chn mt cch ngu nhin.
1.4

B s liu

Ngun: cc bn co bch nm trong h s ng k cho bn chng khon ra cng

chng ca mt s cng ty nim yt trn s giao dch chng khon thnh ph H Ch Minh.

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GVHD: ThS Nguyn Trung ng

Nhm 4
Tn cng ty
CNG TY C PHN U T PHT
TRIN THNG MI ViN NG
CNG TY C PHN XuT NHP
KHU THY SN AN GIANG
CNG TY C PHN HU HN CNG
NGHIP GM X TAICERA
CNG TY C PHN THY SN
MEKONG
CNG TY CP PHT TRIN NH TH
C
CNG TY C PHN U T V
THNG MI DIC
CNG TY C PHN BT GIT LIX
CNG TY C PHN U T TI
CHNH GIO DC
CNG TY C PHN KINH DOANH KH
HA LNG MIN NAM (PV GAS
SOUTH)
CNG TY C PHN VN TI BIN
VINASHIP
CNG TY C PHN TIE
CNG TY C PHN DC PHM
VIN NG
CNG TY C PHN MA NG
NHIT IN GIA LAI
CNG TY C PHN U T V XY
DNG IN MCA VNECO
CNG TY C PHN MA NG
BOURBON TY NINH
CNG TY C PHN CAO SU PHC
HO
CNG TY C PHN THP POMINA
(POMINA)
CNG TY C PHN S.P.M
CNG TY C PHN THNG MI
XUT NHP KHU MIN NAM (TNA)
CNG TY C PHN THP VIT (VIS)
TNG CNG TY C PHN DCH V
TNG HP DU KH
CNG TY C PHN GIAO NHN VN
TI V THNG MI VINALINK

Nhm thc hnh:

Tng gi tr nim
yt

Tng ti sn ca
cng ty

Tng n cng ty
hin c

80.000.000.000

551.963.000.000

273.504.582.373

51.124.220.000

468.269.225.000

53.294.293.895

49.690.000.000

860.146.000.000

497.573.814.189

81.000.000.000

342.693.650.000

53.778.220.000

60.000.000.000

976.369.647.000

266.333.000.000

32.000.000.000
90.000.000.000

91.225.083.961
267.609.157.607

40.361.903.708
74.162.616.000

99.300.000.000

43.927.019.254

2.695.799.926

65.000.000.000

1.105.138.204.675

929.294.353.774

200.000.000.000
95.699.000.000

754.512.259.680
249.494.578.681

437.165.218.234
53.207.421.610

89.100.000.000

396.946.747.248

203.044.590.591

126.134.720.000

194.452.408.796

4.913.371.557

90.075.000.000

279.781.239.000

171.985.661.000

448.241.720.000

1.715.676.000.000

62.732.769.336

813.000.000.000

1.685.550.949.923

944.579.185.389

1.630.000.000.000
100.000.000.000

6.004.516.000.000
819.913.000.000

3.785.003.000.000
305.217.942.472

47.000.000.000
100.000.000.000

257.153.000.000
768.084.873.925

149.367.000.000
655.317.172.448

60.000.000.000

2.185.256.000.000

1.201.124.941.196

81.900.000.000

122.004.784.000

11.045.981.000

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GVHD: ThS Nguyn Trung ng

Nhm 4

Nhm thc hnh:

Chng III

C LNG V KIM NH M HNH

3.1

c lng
3.1.1

M hnh c lng mu

GIATRI= 1 + 2 TAISAN + 3 NO

GIATRI = -3.035955542e+010 + 0.2604842861*TAISAN - 0.008761705179*TONGNO

3.1.2 Kim nh du
So snh vi gi thuyt, ta thy du ca cc h s i km vi TAISAN v TONGNO ging vi
nhng g ta k vng.
3.1.3

ngha ca cc h s hi quy

- 2 = 0.2604842861 : Khi TONGNO khng thay i, th tng ti sn tng, gim mt n v

th tng gi tr cng ty nim yt trn th trng tng, gim 0.2604842861 ln.
^

- 3 = - 0.008761705179 : Khi TAISAN khng thay i, th TONGNO tng hay gim mt

n v th tng gi tr cng ty nim yt trn th trng gim hoc tng 0.008761705179 ln.
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GVHD: ThS Nguyn Trung ng

Nhm 4
3.2

Nhm thc hnh:

Kim nh v mt i s
3.2.1 Kim nh cho gi thuyt H0:
Tng ti sn khng nh hng n tng gi tr nim yt.
Ta c bi ton kim nh sau:
Kim nh gi thit :

H 0 : 2 = 0

H1 : 2 0

Khi H ng, ta c thng k :

2 2 0.260484 - 0
=
T=
= 2.59358384610789
se( 2 )
0.100434
Vi mc ngha = 0.05 v N = 22, ta c :
c = t223 = t 019.05 = 2.093
M T > c : Bc b H 0 2 0 ngha l Tng ti sn nh hng n tng gi tr nim
yt
3.2.2 Kim nh cho gi thuyt H0:
Tng n khng nh hng n tng gi tr nim yt.
Ta c bi ton kim nh sau:

Kim nh gi thit :

H : =0

0 3
H1 : 3 0

Khi H ng, ta c thng k :

3 3 - 0.008762 - 0
T = se( ) = 0.156445 = 0.0560069033845761
3

Vi mc ngha = 0.05 v N = 22, ta c :

22 3
19
c = t = t 0.05 = 2.093
M T < c : Chp nhn H 0 1 0
Chp nhn H 0 3 = 0 ngha l Tng n khng nh hng n tng gi tr nim
yt
3.2.3 Kim nh cho gi thuyt H0:
Tng n v tng ti sn khng nh hng n tng gi tr nim yt.
Ta c bi ton kim nh sau

H 0 : 2 = 3 = 0

H1 : 2 3 0
Ta dng thng k:
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GVHD: ThS Nguyn Trung ng

Nhm 4
R 2 /( K 1)
F=
F ( K 1, N K ) , vi K = 3, N = 22
(1 R 2 ) /( N K )

Nhm thc hnh:

Nu H0 ng ta c :

F=

0.782035/( 3 - 1)
R 2 /( K 1)
=
=38.67281
2
(1 R ) /( N K ) (1 - 0.782035)/ (22 - 3)

Vi mc ngha = 0.05 v N = 22
Ta c Fc = 3.44
M F > Fc : bc b H 0 , ngha l Tng n v tng ti sn nh hng n tng gi tr nim yt.
3.2.4

Kim nh s ph hp ca m hnh SRF so vi s liu ca mu:

Prob(F-statistic) = 0.000000 < = 0.05

=> M hnh ph hp
3.2.5 Kim nh hin tng a cng tuyn:
Dng m hnh hi quy ph vi bin ph thuc l TONGNO v bin c nh l TAISAN.

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GVHD: ThS Nguyn Trung ng

Nhm 4
Kim nh cho gi thuyt H0:

Nhm thc hnh:

TONGNO v TAISAN c tng quan tuyn tnh

Ta c bi ton kim nh sau

H 0 : R 2 = 0

2
H1 : R > 0
( R 2 = 0 : TONGNO v TAISAN khng c tng quan tuyn tnh,
R 2 > 0 : TONGNO v TAISAN c tng quan tuyn tnh )

Ta thy: Prob(F-statistic) = 0.000000 < = 0.05

Bc b H : TONGNO v TAISAN c tng quan tuyn tnh.
Vy, m hnh chnh c hin tng a cng tuyn.

3.3

Xc nh khong tin cy ca cc h s:
^

3.3.1 Xc nh khong tin cy ca 2 :

^

Vi 2 = 0.260484 0.260484 0.260484

^

Se ( 2 )= 0.100434

Th khong tin cy ca 2 l:

0.050275638 2 0.470692362
ngha: Vi cc yu t khc khng thay i th 2 nm trong khong t 0.050275638 ti
0.470692362
^

3.3.2 Xc nh khong tin cy ca 3 :

^

Vi 3 = -0.008762
^

Se ( 3 )= 0.156445
Th khong tin cy ca 3 l :
-0.336201385 3 0.318677385
ngha: Vi cc yu t khc khng thay i th 3 nm trong khong t -0.336201385 ti
0.318677385

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GVHD: ThS Nguyn Trung ng

Nhm 4

Nhm thc hnh:

Chng IV
KT LUN

4.1

ngha
T bi ton kim nh trn ta c th thy : trong mt s trng hp, tng s n ca cng
ty khng nh hng n tng gi tr nim yt trn sn giao dch ca cng ty v vi kt qu ta thy
tng ti sn ca cng ty cng ch nh hng n tng gi tr nim yt mt mc nht nh.

4.2

M rng m hnh
Ta thy rng tng gi tr nim yt trn sn giao dch cn ph thuc vo gi tr hp ng
m cng ty ang thc hin ; ch s tng trng hng nm ca cng ty,hay li nhun sau thu ca
cng ty,, t ta c th kho st thm c kt qu chnh xc cho m hnh phc v cho cng tc
d bo cng nh cng tc quan l
Hn ch
Do s lng bin t nn khng phn nh ht ton cnh ca th trng nn kt qu thu
c cn thiu chnh xc
Do thiu kinh nghim trong vic s dng bn co bch nn kh nng s dng thng tin
cng nh kh nng phn tch cha cao
y l 1 kh mi m do th trng chng khon ch thc s ph bin trong thi gian
gn y , do nhm lm bi khng trnh khi thiu st

4.3

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GVHD: ThS Nguyn Trung ng

Nhm 4

Nhm thc hnh:

PH LC

Biu phn b ri (Scatter graphs)

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GVHD: ThS Nguyn Trung ng

Nhm 4

Nhm thc hnh:

Thnh vin nhm 4, lp 08DNH1:

L Anh Tun
H Xun Sang
Nguyn Vn ng

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4/7/2012