4/1/2011

2.2. PHN TCH T S TI CHNH

Ngi trnh by: L T Minh Tn

NI DUNG
4/1/2011

Cc nhm t s ch yu Phn tch Du Pont Quy trnh phn tch t s Hn ch ch yu ca phn tch t s Vn ca ROE Phn tnh nh tnh

Vn 2 - Phn tch t s

4/1/2011

CC T S C HNH THNH NTN?

4/1/2011

So snh gi tr mt ch tiu trn bo co ti chnh vi ch tiu khc Trn cng mt bo co Gia cc bo co

Vn 2 - Phn tch t s

C CC NHM T S CH YU NO?
4/1/2011

T s nh gi kh nng thanh ton T s nh gi kh nng qun l ti sn T s nh gi kh nng qun l n T s nh gi kh nng sinh li T s gi tr th trng

Vn 2 - Phn tch t s

4/1/2011

T S KH NNG THANH TON

4/1/2011

ngha:

y l nhm ch tiu c s dng nh gi kh nng p ng cc khon n ngn hn ca doanh nghip. Kh nng hon chuyn thnh tin ca cc ti sn, kh nng to tin thanh ton cc khon n ngn hn T s kh nng thanh ton hin hnh T s kh nng thanh ton nhanh T s kh nng thanh bng tin T s lu chuyn thun hot ng kinh doanh/n ngn hn

Vn 2 - Phn tch t s

Gm:

KH NNG THANH TON HIN HNH

RTH

Ti sn ngn hn N ngn hn

4/1/2011 Vn 2 - Phn tch t s

ngha: Mt ng n ngn hn c m bo bng bao nhiu ng ti sn ngn hn Phng php phn tch t s: so snh (bng, th) Cho bit iu g?

Gi tr t s < 1? Gi tr ca t s ny gim? Gi tr t s ny cao?

6

4/1/2011

KH NNG THANH TON HIN HNH

4/1/2011

Trng hp qu cao?

Kh nng sinh li

Vn 2 - Phn tch t s

Bao nhiu l hp l?

1, 5 2,2 ?

T s ny phn nh chnh xc kh nng thanh khon?

Hng tn kho
7

KH NNG THANH TON NHANH

4/1/2011

RTN

Ti sn ngn hn Hng tn kho N ngn hn

Vn 2 - Phn tch t s

ngha: Mt ng n ngn hn c m bo bng bao nhiu ng ti sn ngn hn m khng phi bn hng tn kho Phng php phn tch? Cho bit iu g?

Gi tr ca t s ny gim? Gi tr t s ny cao? Trng hp qu cao?

4/1/2011

KH NNG THANH TON NHANH

4/1/2011

Bao nhiu l hp l ? Ti sao hng tn kho c tnh lng km hn tin v khi thu?

Vn 2 - Phn tch t s

Tnh lng: thi gian v chi ph chuyn i thnh tin Chu k kinh doanh

T s ny c phn nh chnh xc kh nng thanh ton nhanh khng?

N phi thu kh i TSL km lng hn hng tn kho

9

KH NNG THANH TON BNG TIN

4/1/2011

RTT

Tin v tng ng tin N ngn hn

Vn 2 - Phn tch t s

Tin? Tng ng tin? ngha: nh gi kh nng thanh ton nu n n hn ngay lp tc Tng gim do nguyn nhn no? Qu cao c tt khng?

10

4/1/2011

T S KH NNG THANH TON

4/1/2011

S dng ch tiu lu chuyn tin t

RTLC

Lu chuyn tin t HKD nm N N ngn hn nm N -1

Vn 2 - Phn tch t s

ngha:
Kh nng to tin t hot ng kinh doanh thanh ton cc khon n ngn hn >1

Bao nhiu th c th coi l tt?

Qu cao c tt khng?
11

T S HOT NG
4/1/2011

Cc t s hot ng c s dng nh gi hiu qu s dng ti sn ca doanh nghip. Quan tm: hiu qu s dng tng ti sn v hiu qu s dng ca tng b phn cu thnh tng ti sn ca doanh nghip. Ch tiu doanh thu thng c s dng ch yu trong tnh ton cc ch s ny

Vn 2 - Phn tch t s

Hot ng: s dng ti sn Doanh thu Doanh thu khng i, t ti sn hn Cng 1 lng ti sn, doanh thu ln hn
12

4/1/2011

C NHNG T S NO
4/1/2011

Vng quay tng ti sn Vng quay ti sn c nh Vng quay khon phi thu & K thu tin bnh qun Vng quay hng tn kho & K lu kho trung bnh

13

Vn 2 - Phn tch t s

VNG QUAY TNG TI SN

Cng thc?

VTS = ?

4/1/2011

Doanh thu (DT), tng DT, hay DT thun? Tng ti sn hay tng ti sn bnh qun? ngha:

Vn 2 - Phn tch t s

Hiu qu: bao nhiu ng DT/1 ng vn Tc quay vng vn

Cao l tt? (TSC, hng tn kho, KPThu) Ti sao gim? Ti sao thp? (ngnh, TS) Nu gim, lm th no ci thin? kho st b phn

14

4/1/2011

VNG QUAY TI SN C NH

Cng thc?

VC = ?
4/1/2011

Tng doanh thu? Doanh thu hay Doanh thu thun? Gi tr rng hay nguyn gi? TSC u k, cui k hay bnh qun? Ch tiu no trn bng cn i k ton? Hiu qu: bao nhiu ng DT/1 ng vn vo TSC Tc quay vng vn

Vn 2 - Phn tch t s

ngha:

Ti sao tng, gim? Cao l tt? (TSC)

Ti sao thp? (ngnh, cha phn nh gim gi tr, TS tha)

15

Nu thp, gim, lm th no ci thin?

VNG QUAY HNG TN KHO

4/1/2011

Cng thc? VTK = ?

Doanh thu hay gi vn hng bn Hng tn kho hay tn kho bnh qun? c lng s ln hng tn kho c bn trong k

Vn 2 - Phn tch t s

ngha:

Thp l xu? Cao l tt? Ti sao thp? (ngnh, cha phn nh gim gi tr, thi im nghin cu, thi v) Ti sao gim? Nu thp, gim, lm th no ci thin?

16

4/1/2011

K LU KHO TRUNG BNH

4/1/2011

Cng thc?

KTK = ?

Vn 2 - Phn tch t s

360 hay 365? ngha:

Thi gian trung bnh hng lu gi kho, n v gi bn, nm trong khu sn xut

Ngn l tt? Qu ngn? Cc yu t khc:

Tng t vng quay hng tn kho

17

VNG QUAY KHON PHI THU

4/1/2011

Cng thc?

VPT = ?

Doanh thu hay doanh thu bn chu? Khon phi thu no? Khon phi thu cui k hay bnh qun? Tc chuyn i cc khon phi thu thnh tin mt

Vn 2 - Phn tch t s

ngha:

Thp l xu? Cao l tt? Ti sao thp? (c im ngnh, chnh sch bn chu, cng tc thu tin) Ti sao gim?

ch quan: chnh sch bn chu, cha phn nh gim khch quan: khch hng

18

4/1/2011

K THU TIN BNH QUN

4/1/2011

Cng thc? ngha:

KTT = ?

Vn 2 - Phn tch t s

Bnh qun mt t bn chu, t khi bn hng xong n khi thu tin mt bao nhiu ngy?

Di l tt? Ngn l xu? So snh vi?

Qu kh: improved? Trung bnh ngnh: postion? i th cnh tranh: more generous credit policy? Thi hn bn chu t ra: consistent?
19

Lm th no rt ngn? (Chit khu, thu tin)

K lu kho, k thu tin, k tr tin c phn nh kh nng thanh ton n ngn hn khng?
4/1/2011

Nhp hng

Bn hng

Nhn tin

Vn 2 - Phn tch t s

Thi gian tn kho

K thu tin

K tr tin Chu k tin mt Tr tin cho nh cung cp

20

10

4/1/2011

TR LI

Chu k kinh doanh (Operating cycle):

4/1/2011

Thi gian t khi u t tin vo hng tn kho cho n khi thu c tin v. OC = K tn kho + K thu tin Chu k kinh doanh cng di tc chuyn ha ti sn thnh tin cng thp

Vn 2 - Phn tch t s

Chu k tin mt (Cash conversion cycle or Net operating cycle or Working capital cycle):

Thi gian t khi tr tin cho nh cung cp n khi thu c tin CCC = K tn kho + K thu tin K tr tin Chu k tin mt cng di nhu cu v thanh khon (tin) cng ln.

21

T S KH NNG CN I VN
4/1/2011

C cu vn:

Tng n/Tng ti sn (H s n) Tng n/Vn ch s hu Tng ti sn/Vn ch s hu (s nhn vn ch s hu)

Vn 2 - Phn tch t s

T s kh nng thanh ton li vay Kh nng thanh ton chi ph c nh

22

11

4/1/2011

H S N
4/1/2011

Cng thc? HN = ? Tng ti sn hay tng ngun vn? ngha:

Vn 2 - Phn tch t s

% ngun ti tr = N
Chnh sch ti chnh Hiu qu kinh doanh Kh nng tip cn ngun ti tr

T s ny ph thuc vo?

T s ny cao l xu? T s ny thp l tt?

23

T S KH NNG THANH TON LI VAY

4/1/2011

Cng thc:
KNLV =

EBIT I Thng tin u? ngha:

Vn 2 - Phn tch t s

Mc thu nhp c th m bo thanh ton li Chnh sch ti chnh Hiu qu kinh doanh

T s ny ph thuc vo?

T s ny cao l tt?
24

12

4/1/2011

T S KH NNG THANH TON CHI PH

C NH
4/1/2011

Cng thc:
=

KNC

EBITDA + Thanh ton tin thu Li vay + N gc/(1-T) + Thanh ton tin thu

Vn 2 - Phn tch t s

ngha:

Kh nng thanh ton cc chi ph c nh bng cc ngun thu nhp

S liu? C loi chi ph c nh no khc?

25

T S V KH NNG SINH LI
4/1/2011

T sut li nhun thun trn doanh thu T sut li nhun rng trn tng ti sn T sut li nhun rng trn vn ch s hu

26

Vn 2 - Phn tch t s

13

4/1/2011

T SUT LI NHUN
Cng thc: ngha nh gi?

DOANH THU

(ROS)
4/1/2011 Vn 2 - Phn tch t s

Cao v tng trng Thp?

Li nhun thp, gim Bin ng chi ph, qun l chi ph Qun l chi ph

Nguyn nhn thp v gim?

Lm th no ci thin?

27

T SUT LI NHUN
Cng thc: ngha nh gi?

RNG TNG TS

(ROA)
4/1/2011 Vn 2 - Phn tch t s

Cao v tng trng Thp? Li nhun thp, gim Ti sn cao, tng Phn tch Du Pont vi ROA

Nguyn nhn thp v gim?

Lm th no ci thin?

28

14

4/1/2011

T SUT LI NHUN
Cng thc: ngha

RNG VN CSH

(ROE)
4/1/2011 Vn 2 - Phn tch t s

Li nhun sau thu/1 ng vn ch s hu Quan h vi gi c phiu Cao v tng trng Thp? Phn tch Dupont Phn tch Du Pont

nh gi?

Nguyn nhn thp v gim?

Lm th no ci thin?

29

VN CA ROE

Vn thi gian:

4/1/2011

Qu kh Khng phn nh c tc ng y ca quyt nh nh hng n tng lai Ri ro kinh doanh Ri ro ti chnh Gi tr s sch ROE cao khng ng ngha vi sut sinh li cho cc c ng

Vn 2 - Phn tch t s

Vn ri ro:

Vn gi tr:

c thm: Qun tr Ti chnh Nguyn Tn Bnh trang 85 - 90

30

15

4/1/2011

mu s ca cc cng thc tnh ROE, ROA nn s dng ch tiu: u k? Cui k? Bnh qun?

4/1/2011 Vn 2 - Phn tch t s

t s ca cc cng thc tnh ROS, ROA, ROE, ngoi li nhun rng, c th dng cc ch tiu li nhun khc khng?

31

T L HON VN (ROI)
4/1/2011

Cng thc:
ROI =

Li nhun trc thu v li vay Tng vn bnh qun

Vn 2 - Phn tch t s

ngha:

L ch tiu phn nh hiu qu s dng vn khch quan nht khng ph thuc vo chnh sch ti tr cng nh thu thu nhp doanh nghip. C s nh gi s ng gp ca cng ty trong vic s dng vn to ra li nhun cho nn kinh t C s ch s hu nh gi tc ng ca n by ti chnh v ra quyt nh huy ng vn.

32

16

4/1/2011

CC T S C NG QUAN TM
4/1/2011

Li trn c phiu - EPS C tc trn c phiu - DPS T l chi tr c tc TCT = DPS/EPS T l li nhun gi li TGL = 1 - TCT Tc tng trng bn vng g = ROE x TGL

Vn 2 - Phn tch t s

c thm:

Chng 6 - Ti liu tham kho chnh thc Chng IV: Qun tr tng trng sch Qun tr Ti chnh Nguyn Tn Bnh trang 85 - 90
33

NHM T S GI TR TH TRNG
4/1/2011

Gi th trng/gi tr s sch MV/BV

Gi th trng/thu nhp mi c - P/E

Vn 2 - Phn tch t s

L g? Tnh ton nh th no? C ngha ra sao trong hot ng u t? Dao ng mc no?

Gi th trng/gi tr lu chuyn tin rng t hot ng kinh doanh mi c phiu P/CFS Gi tr th trng/C tc mi c phiu P/DPS
34

17

4/1/2011

TNH TON T S GI/THU NHP, GI/LC TIN, V GI TH TRNG/GI S SCH.

P/E = Price / Earnings per share = $12.17 / $1.014 = 12.0x

4/1/2011 Vn 2 - Phn tch t s

P/CF

= Price / Cash flow per share = $12.17 / [($253.6+$117.0) 250] = 8.21x * Lu chuyn tin: LNST + KH

35

TNH P/E, P/CF V M/B

4/1/2011

M/B = Market price / Book value per share = $12.17 / ($1,952 / 250) = 1.56x
2006E
P/E P/CF M/B 12.0x 8.21x 1.56x

Vn 2 - Phn tch t s

2005
-1.4x -5.2x 0.5x

2004
9.7x 8.0x 1.3x

Ind.
14.2x 11.0x 2.4x

36

18

4/1/2011

PHN TCH T S GI TR TH
TRNG
4/1/2011

P/E:

Nh u t sn sng b ra bao nhiu i ly $1 li nhun ca doanh nghip. P/CF: Nh u t sn sng b ra bao nhiu i ly $1 LC tin ca doanh nghip. M/B: Nh u t sn sng b ra bao nhiu i ly $1 vn c phn ca doanh nghip.
Vi P/E

mi mt t s, gi tr cng cao th cng tt. v M/B cao nu ROE cao v ri ro thp.

37

Vn 2 - Phn tch t s

PHN TCH DU PONT

Bn cht? Cng thc? ngha? nh hng ca cc nhn t v qun l chi ph, qun l ti sn, qun l doanh thu, chnh sch ti chnh n kh nng sinh li Nhn t no c nh hng ln nht n thay i kh nng sinh li trong k phn tch Lm th no ci thin kh nng sinh li?

4/1/2011

38

Vn 2 - Phn tch t s

19

4/1/2011

THE DU PONT SYSTEM

ROE ROE
Phn

4/1/2011

Profit margin (NI/Sales)

Total assets turnover (Sales/TA)

Equity multiplier (TA/Equity )

Vn 2 - Phn tch t s

nh vic qun l chi ph (PM), s dng ti sn (TATO), v s dng n (Equity multiplier.)

39

PHNG TRNH DU PONT: BREAKING DOWN RETURN ON EQUITY

ROE = = = (NI / Sales) x (Sales/TA) x (TA/Equity) 3.6% 13.0% x 2 x 1.8

4/1/2011 Vn 2 - Phn tch t s

PM
2004 2.6%

TA TO
2.3

EM
2.2

ROE
13.3%

2005 2006E Ind.

-2.7% 3.6% 3.5%

2.1 2.0 2.6

5.8 1.8 2.0

-32.5% 13.0% 18.2%

40

20

4/1/2011

V D: TC NG CA CI THIN
T S
4/1/2011

KPT TSNH khc TSC Tng

$ 878 1,802 817 $3,497

N $1,545 Vn CSH 1,952 _____ Tng $3,497

Vn 2 - Phn tch t s

DT /Ngy = $7,035,600/365 = $19,275.62

Vic gim k thu tin bnh qun xung cn 32 ngy nh hng n cng ty th no?

41

GIM KHON PHI THU V K THU

TIN BNH QUN
4/1/2011

Gim khon phi thu khng nh hng n doanh thu KPT c = $19,275.62 x 45.6 = $878,000 KPT mi = $19,275.62 x 32.0 = $616,820 Lng tin c gii phng: $261,180 Hiu ng u tin: Tng tin

42

Vn 2 - Phn tch t s

21

4/1/2011

NH HNG CA VIC GIM KPT N BN CN I K TON V GI CP

Tin tng $ 261 KPT 617 TSNH khc 1,802 TSC 817 Tng $3,497 N $1,545 Vn CSH 1,952
4/1/2011 Vn 2 - Phn tch t s

Tng

______ $3,497

C th lm g vi lng tin tng thm? nh hng n ri ro v li nhun ca CP?

43

S DNG TIN GII PHNG C

4/1/2011

Mua li c phiu M rng kinh doanh Gim n Tt c nhng hot ng ny s lm tng gi c phiu .

44

Vn 2 - Phn tch t s

22

4/1/2011

QUY TRNH PHN TCH T S NTN?

B1:

Xc nh ng cng thc o lng ch tiu cn thit Xc nh ng s liu t cc bo co ti chnh lp vo cng thc Gii thch ngha t s va tnh ton nh gi t s ti chnh va tnh ton

4/1/2011

B2:

Vn 2 - Phn tch t s

B3: B4: B5:

Phn tch cc yu t nh hng n t s va tnh ton

45

SAU KHI PHN TCH TNG T S PHI LM G?

Lp bng tng hp c ci nhn ton cnh

4/1/2011

Kh nng thanh ton? Hot ng? ... Tng hay gim? Tt hay khng tt? qu kh v trin vng Nguyn nhn?

Vn 2 - Phn tch t s

Kt lun v tnh hnh ti chnh, hiu qu hot ng ca doanh nghip xut cc gii php khc phc

Cn u tin cc gii php no?

46

23

4/1/2011

Phn tch t s s a ra cu tr li chnh xc v tnh hnh ti chnh, hiu qu kinh doanh?

47

4/1/2011 Vn 2 - Phn tch t s

HN CH CA PHN TCH T S
4/1/2011

Trng

hp cng ty hot ng nhiu ngnh

Kh xy dng h thng t s bnh qun

Vn 2 - Phn tch t s

Gi

tr trung bnh ngnh cha hn l tt t thi v c th lm mo m cc t s

Tt hn mc trung bnh!!! Lu khi s dng s liu qu

Yu

S dng s bnh qun

48

24

4/1/2011

HN CH CA PHN TCH T S
4/1/2011

Cc

th thut lm p cc bo co ti chnh

Vay 2 nm t 27/12/2005 Tr n: 2/7/2006

Vn 2 - Phn tch t s

nh hng n THH

Khng

th so snh nu nguyn tc thc hnh k ton ca cc doanh nghip khc nhau

FIFO, LIFO, Dep THH cao?

Kh c th ni mt t s l tt hay xu
49

HN CH CA PHN TCH T S
4/1/2011

Kh
T

c th ni mt cng ty c tnh hnh Ti chnh mnh hay yu

s ny tt, t s khc xu

Vn 2 - Phn tch t s

nh

hng ca lm pht

Gi tr s snh # gi tr thc Tn kho, khu hao, li nhun Lu khi phn tch qua thi gian

Garbage in garbage out! (cht lng thng tin ti chnh)

Ph php bo co ti chnh c ti liu tham kho

50

25

4/1/2011

PHN TCH NH TNH # NH LNG

4/1/2011

Tt c doanh thu ca cng ty ph thuc vo mt khch hng chnh?

Vn 2 - Phn tch t s

Nu khng cn khch hng ny?

Doanh thu ca cng ty ph thuc vo mt sn phm ch cht?

Ri ro

Cng ty c b ph thuc vo mt nh cung cp duy nht hay khng?

Thiu ht bt ng Nh u t, cho vay cn lu !

51

PHN TCH NH TNH # NH LNG

4/1/2011

Bao nhiu phn trm hot ng kinh doanh ca cng ty nc ngoi?

Vn 2 - Phn tch t s

Ch yu nc ngoi tng trng, li/doanh thu ; Ch yu nc ngoi ri ro, gi tr ng tin Cnh tranh gim gi bn + li rng/doanh thu Cn: nh gi cnh tranh hin ti, gia nhp mi

S cnh tranh

Sn phm tng lai

Hot ng R&D?
Mi trng?

Mi trng php l v qun l

52

26

4/1/2011

PHN TCH BCTC VIT NAM?

4/1/2011

c ti liu tham kho

53

Vn 2 - Phn tch t s

27