Vi nguyn tc hn ch thua l khi u t vng

Theo gii chuyn gia v cc nh u t chuyn nghip, ngi tham gia chi vng vn c th hn ch c thua l nu c chin lc u t ng.

T gia thng 2 n nay, th trng vng lin tc to ra nhng cn sng t khin phn ln nh u t gp ri ro v d on gi sai. Thc t, gi vng ti VN ph thuc nhiu vo din bin trn sn giao dch quc t. Tuy nhin, th trng vng vt cht trong nc cha c s lin thng cht ch vi th gii do u vo (nhp khu) vn phi c kim sot, ngoi ra do tc ng ca din bin cung - cu tng thi im nn gi vng vt cht trong nc thng c vnh ln so vi gi th gii. Hn na, biu gi c iu chnh thng theo hng c li cho cc cng ty v doanh nghip. Khi y mnh gom hng, h c th thu hp bin gia gi mua v bn. Khong chnh lch gia gi th gii v gi trong nc cng xa th cng nhiu kh nng h tr cho mc ch xut khu. Ngi dn nhiu khi chu thua thit vi cc mc gi ny.

Trong khi , ng i ca gi vng hin khng tun theo quy lut no c, nhiu ngy tch ri khi din bin sc kho USD, v gi du. Thng thng, gi vng thng t l nghch vi chiu i ca ng la v thng song hnh vi gi du.

Nhng nhng bt n a chnh tr, s m yu ca cc nn kinh t trong bng en suy thoi, ng thi ca cc qu u c, cc t chc ti chnh, c bit l s dn dt ca yu t tm l khin th trng vng tr nn kh d on hn bao gi ht.

Cc nh u t nn b vn mc k qu t nht l 10% v khng nn trng thi giao dch qua phin, hoc qua m, trnh trng hp gi dao ng vi bin cc ln, nh u t khng kp tr tay, ti khon b x l. Nh u t cn c kh nng phn tch cc thng s kinh t ti cc nc nh M, EU, Nht. Ngoi vic phn on din bin th trng vng qua cc ch s t kinh t M nh GDP, t l tht nghip, sc kho cc ng tin mnh trn th gii, ngi tham gia chi vng cn bit tnh hnh v tr lng vng ca cc t chc ti chnh, ngn hng trung ng v nhu cu ti cc nc c mc tiu th vng ln trn th gii. Khi ng la c xu hng yu i, cc qu ny c th nng mc d tr vng bng cch bn bt ngoi t, hoc ngc li, t c tc ng n cung - cu th trng, ko theo gi tng hoc gim. Tuy nhin, vic nm bt chnh xc cn tu thuc vo nhy bn v trnh ca mi ngi.

Chn phng php giao dch ph hp vi thi gian biu ca mnh cng l mt chin thut u t. Nu khng c thi gian bm sn, nh u t c th nng t l k qu mc cao, nh theo phng php trung v di hn. Nu d on gi ln, nh u t s mua vo, v n u ngn sng, n thi im thch hp, c th l 1 tun, thm ch 1 thng sau . Nu c thi gian theo st cc bc nhy v gi, nh u t c th t lnh vi mt dy hn, c bit thi im gi vng bin ng vi bin cc ln, phi t lnh mua bn kp thi, c th lt sng trong mt phin. Cch ny mo him hn nhng nu d on chnh xc, nh u t c th thu li ln.

hn ch ri ro, khch hng c th t lnh theo cc cch thng thng, cht li v o chiu da trn s tin k qu 7% tng gi tr giao dch theo gi v khi

lng khch hng d nh mua hoc bn. Vi cch thng thng, nu k vng gi ln, khch hng c vay s tin cn thiu t lnh mua vng. Khi gi vng tng, khch hng s bn vng tr n v thu v li nhun. K vng gi gim, khch hng c vay 100% s vng theo nhu cu t lnh bn vng.Khi t lnh cht li (take profit), khch hng c th t mt lc 2 lnh mua v bn, xc nh mt khon li nhun theo nhu cu ca khch hng. Hnh thc t lnh take profit s lm gia tng kh nng khp lnh trong giao dch ca khch hng v thu v li nhun mong i trong iu kin d on chnh xc bin giao ng ca gi vng.

V d, nh u t np tin 14 triu ng giao dch vi khi lng 10 lng. Gi hin ti trn sn l 18,5 triu ng mt lng. Trng hp ny, khch c th t 2 lnh giao dch mt lc. t lnh mua vi gi cho mua l 18,4 triu ng, t lnh bn vi gi cho bn l 18,6 triu ng. Nu lnh mua khp trc lnh bn, c ngha l khch hng s vay tin mua sau bn vng tr n v thu v li nhun. Nu lnh bn khp trc lnh mua, c ngha khch hng s vay vng bn, sau mua li tr n v thu v li nhun. Nh vy, nu gi vng bin ng vi bin 200.000 ng th khch hng s thu v khon li nhun mong i l 2 triu ng (10 x 200.000 ng) tng ng vi t sut li nhun l 14,3%.

Trng hp t lnh o chiu, loi lnh ny ch c p dng vi trung hp gi vng bin ng khng theo d on ca khch hng trong khi khch hng khp lnh m cha tt ton (v d khch hng khp lnh mua nhng cha t bn hoc khch hng khp lnh bn nhng cha t mua li). Trong trng hp ny vi t l k qu ti thiu khch hng c th t lnh o chiu vi khi lng gp 2 ln khi lng khp lnh. Hnh thc t lnh o chiu s gip cho khch hng nhanh chng thay i xu hng u t ca mnh v gip khch hng ct l hiu qu.

V d, vi s tin k qu trong ti khon ti thiu 7% tng gi tr giao dch, khch hng u t gi ln v khp lnh mua c 10 lng vng. Nu thc t gi vng li ang c xu hng gim, th khch hng c th t bn 20 lng (trong : bn 10 lng mua c v vay 10 lng t bn v chuyn hng u t gi xung). V d khc, vi s tin k qu trong ti khon ti thiu 7% tng gi tr giao dch, khch hng u t gi xung v khp lnh bn c 20 lng vng. Nu thc t gi vng li ang c xu hng tng, th khch hng c th t mua 40 lng (trong , mua 20 lng tr n v vay tin mua thm 20 lng chuyn hng u t gi ln). Nhiu nh u t thc hin cc chin thut t lnh ny v thng ln v quan trng l chn c ng thi im v tun th nguyn tc ct l. Nh u t nn cht li, ct l vi t l nht nh theo hng s li cao hn l mt cht, v theo cc ch s h tr v khng c. Khng nn trng thi m qua phin, cn cht giao dch vo cui ngy, nu nh qua m, v tt nht, nu li 6 USD cho mt ounce th nn cht, cn nu l 4 USD mi ounce th nn ct.

ang c nhiu d bo lc quan vo tim nng tng gi ca vng trong thi gian ti. Nguy c lm pht trong nhng nm ti, cc ngn hng thc hin chnh sch li sut thp, s mt gi ca cc ng tin mnh, cng vic chnh ph cc nc bm tin ngn chn suy gim kinh t, cc knh u t khc cn mt thi gian di mi mong hi phc l nhng yu t nng gi vng. Tuy nhin, nhu cu vng n trang ti nhiu nc nh Trung Quc, n suy gim do kinh t cha thot khi vng xoy gim pht, cng thm p lc bn vng tng thanh khon cho cc knh u t khc, v nhu cu nm gi tin mt ca cc qu u tc th li ghm cng gi vng. Do vy, nh u t phi c chin thut u t ph hp vi tng din bin mi. v u t vng cn c kin thc, k nng, kinh nghim v t duy, ng thi phi bit dng ng lc