u thu tn phiu kho bc nh nc 1.

Tnh hnh u thu tn phiu ti NHNN thi gian qua Tnh chung t nm 2000 n nay, vi vai tr l i l pht hnh tri phiu Chnh ph (TPCP), NHNN huy ng c 146.342 t ng, chim t l 36%/tng khi lng pht hnh TPCP ni chung. y l mt t l kh cao so vi cc loi TPCP c k hn khc. Chng hn nh TPCP loi k hn 2 nm c t l l 15,2%, TPCP k hn 5 nm l 28%... Tuy nhin, thi gian qua, nht l thi im t nm 2010 tr li y, khi lng trng thu tn phiu gim dn, thm ch, c phin khng c thnh vin no tham gia. Mc d, Kho bc Nh nc v NHNN c nhiu c gng, li sut cho mc cao nhng dng nh th trng vn qu yn ng, lng tin thu v qua knh ny vn qu khim tn so vi lng tin thu c t cc knh huy ng vn khc. Nm 2011: Nu ch tnh ring 6 thng u nm 2011, S Giao dch NHNN phi hp vi Kho bc Nh nc (KBNN) t chc c 21 phin, k hn pht hnh l 364 ngy nhng s tin huy ng ch l 2.150 t ng. y l mt kt qu rt thp vi cc nm trc y. C th, nm 2010 huy ng c 8.350 t ng, nm 2009 l 10.714 t ng v nm 2008 l 20.730 t ng.

* S Giao dch NHNN

Trong tng s hn hai chc phin u thu va qua th c n 16/21 phin khng c khi lng trng thu. iu ng ni na l, ngoi vic khi lng trng thu kh khim tn th s lng thnh vin tham gia cng rt t, trung bnh ch c t 1 n 2 thnh vin tham gia/phin v thng tp trung vo mt vi thnh vin. C bit, c nhng phin khng c thnh vin tham gia d thu. Chi tit nh sau: (Xem bng 1, bng 2).

Bng 1. Kt qu u thu tn phiu 6 thng u nm 2011 n v: T ng Khi T l trng lng trng thu/d kin thu 1.000 100% 1.100 27,5% 100 33,3% 50 1,25% 2.150 10,75%

Thi gian Thng 01 Thng 02 Thng 3 Thng 4 Thng 5 Thng 6 Tng cng

S thnh vin d thu 8 22 11 6 11 4 62

S thnh vin trng thu 3 4 1 7

Khi lng d kin 1.000 4.000 4.000 3.000 4.000 3.000 19.000

Ngun: Bo co thng k tng hp kt qu u thu TPCP, NHNN

Bng 2. Tng hp tnh hnh li sut cc phin u thu tn phiu 6 thng u nm 2011

Phin giao dch

Li sut t thu

Li sut trng thu

Phin giao dch

n v: %/nm Li sut Li sut t thu trng thu

Phin 1/2011 Phin 2/2011 Phin 3/2011

10,95 13,92 10,70 12,0 10,84 12,0

11,0 10,95 -

Phin 12/2011 13,0 14,0 Phin 13/2011 12,0 20,0 Phin 14/2011 14,0 16,0

12,0 -

Phin 4/2011 Phin 5/2011 Phin 6/2011 Phin 7/2011 Phin 8/2011 Phin 9/2011 Phin 10/2011 Phin 11/2011

10,60 12,0 11,20 12,5 11,60 12,10 11,80 14,0 11,10 14,0 12,0 14,0 12,50 13,0 12,80 14,50

10,70 -

Phin 15/2011 Phin 16/2011 Phin 17/2011 Phin 18/2011 Phin 19/2011 Phin 20/2011 Phin 21/2011

14,0 15,50 13,5 13,60 13,0 15,40 13,20 13,20 13,50 13,50

Ngun: S Giao dch Ngn hng Nh nc NHNN u thu tn phiu kho bc trong qu 3 v qu 4: S giao dch Ngn hng Nh nc (NHNN) thc hin vic u thu tn phiu 2 phin/thng, mi phin gi thu 1.000-2.000 t ng. S giao dch Ngn hng Nh nc pht hnh tn phiu kho bc Nh nc qua NHNN. Vic u thu tn phiu kho bc Nh nc c thc hin vo Th 2 tun th nht v tun th 3 hng thng. Khi lng gi thu t 1.000 - 2.000 t ng/phin. *Nm 2012: - u thu tn phiu qua Ngn hng Nh nc c khi lng u thu l 1.000 t ng/phin, k hn 364 ngy, phng thc cnh tranh li sut.. Thi gian u thu l th hai hng tun (tr cc ngy ngh l v ngy 30/01) Bng tng hp u thu TPKB qu I/2012: S lng d thu 2 3 4 4 3 1 17 Khi lng d kin 1000 1000 1000 1000 500 1000 5500 Khi lng trng thu 300 0 530 810 100 0 1740 Li sut trng thu 11% 0 11,4% 11,5% 11,4% 0 Li sut t thu Li sut cao nht 12,8% 12,6% 13% 12,5% 11,8% 11,7% Li sut thp nht 11% 11,6% 10,5% 11% 11,4% 11,7%

Phin 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Tng

K hn 364 ngy 364 ngy 364 ngy 364 ngy 364 ngy 364 ngy

Ngun: Ngn hng nh nc Qua bng tng hp ta c th thy c t thnh vin tham gia u thu v khi lng trng thu cng rt t, nh vy cc thnh vin khng my mn m vi th trng TPKB. 2. Mt s vn bt cp trong cng tc u thu tn phiu R rng, vi tnh u vit nu trn th l thng, tn phiu s ha hn l mt loi giy t a thch ca nh u t khi c mt lng tin tm thi nhn ri trong tay (t 1 nm tr xung). Nhng trn thc t, thi gian qua, kt qu thu v qua cng tc u

thu tn phiu li khng c nh k vng ca ch th pht hnh (B Ti Chnh) v ca n v t chc pht hnh (NHNN - KBNN). Vy nguyn nhn ca s gim st trn l do u v liu c phi nh u t thc s khng mn m vi loi hng ha ny khng. Qua thi gian cng tc thc t, tc gi nhn thy, c mt nguyn nhn nh hng ti kt qu cc phin u thu thi gian qua l do tnh hnh kinh t trong nc v kinh t trn th gii c chiu hng khng thun li cng vi c cu danh mc u t cha thun li nh u t tham gia i vi loi cng c N ngn hn ca Chnh ph. Nhng nguyn nhn chnh m nh u t cha mn m vi tn phiu li nm chnh ni ti ca c ch t chc pht hnh v sn chi th cp ca loi giy t c gi ny. Theo nh gi ca B Ti chnh, cng tc pht hnh tn phiu qua NHNN thi gian qua pht sinh mt s bt cp, l: - Thnh vin u thu tn phiu ch bao gm cc t chc tn dng (TCTD) c ti khon tin gi thanh ton ti NHNN (S Giao dch). Hin nay, trong tng s 57 thnh vin u thu tn phiu th c ti 40 thnh vin l cc TCTD, c 14 thnh vin l chi nhnh ngn hng nc ngoi v c 3 thnh vin l cc cng ty ti chnh. S d thnh vin ca nghip v ny ch yu l cc TCTD, v tn phiu pht hnh di hnh thc ghi s, ngi mua phi m ti khon chng khon v ti khon tin gi ti NHNN thc hin cc giao dch thanh ton tin v tn phiu theo kt qu trng thu. Mi khon li, gc c thanh ton trc tip vo ti khon tin ch nh ca ngi mua. Trong khi , vic m ti

khon thanh ton ti NHNN mi ch p dng cho cc TCTD l thnh vin ca h thng thanh ton, cha p dng cho cc i tng l cng ty chng khon, cc qu u t. Do vy, phn no hn ch s tham gia ca cc thnh vin u thu c nhu cu khng phi l cc TCTD. c bit, vic cc cng ty bo him, t chc bo him cha tham gia u thu tn phiu cng to nn tnh trng lng ph vn hay quan h tin gi khng k hn trc tip vi cc TCTD nh hin nay. - Hin nay, cha c mt danh sch thnh vin thng nht i vi th trng TPCP ni chung (bao gm c TPCP, TPCP bo lnh, tn phiu) nn khi mun tham gia u thu loi tri phiu no th nh u t phi thc hin th tc gia nhp thnh vin ti n v t chc u thu nh ti S Giao dch chng khon H Ni c mt danh sch thnh vin ring, S Giao dch NHNN c mt danh sch thnh vin ring... Do , nhiu khi pht sinh tnh trng mt nh u t c t cch thnh vin hai ni hoc c th l thnh vin danh sch ny nhng li khng l thnh vin danh sch kia, cho d cng u t mt loi giy t c gi l TPCP. - S lng nh u t c cng nhn l thnh vin tham gia u thu tn phiu ng nhng trn thc t, s thnh vin tham gia mi phin l rt t, c bit l i vi cc ngn hng thng mi c phn v chi nhnh ngn hng nc ngoi. C bit, c thnh vin ch c tn trong danh sch nhng cha tng tham gia mt phin u thu no. Nguyn nhn ch yu l khi cc ngn hng ny cha quan tm ti th trng ny do u t vo TPCP c k hn trung bnh 3 - 5 nm c mc li sut cao hn v thi gian u t ph hp hn. iu ny cng dn ti lng vn kh dng d tha u t vo tn phiu vn cn hn ch. - Vic u t vo tn phiu ca cc thnh vin ch yu nhm mc ch d phng an ton v kh nng thanh ton vo giai on nhy cm (Tt dng lch v tt m lch) qua giao dch nghip v th trng m vi NHNN (OMO). Vic giao dch mua/bn cc loi giy t c gi gia cc TCTD trn th trng lin ngn hng vi nhau cha c thc hin; phn v do c s h tng (cng ngh, php l) ca th trng th cp cha pht trin, phn v do cha c hng dn chi tit. - Quy trnh pht hnh tn phiu thi gian qua cng bc l bt cp, cha khoa hc v thiu lch biu c th nh u t bit v c k hoch ch ng tham gia khi c nhu cu. Mt khc, thi gian qua, cha t chc hnh thc u thu kt hp c cnh tranh v khng canh tranh li sut trong mt phin u thu mc d c quy nh v vn ny (Quy ch s 935/2004/Q-NHNN ngy 23/7/2004 ca NHNN v u thu tn phiu kho bc, tri phiu ngoi t qua NHNN). - Cng tc lu k v chuyn nhng tn phiu cng l mt vn cn phi tho g. Hin nay, tn phiu pht hnh qua NHNN ch thc hin lu k ti S Giao dch NHNN m cha c lu k v chuyn nhng nn tri ch ch c th tham gia cc giao dch th trng tin t vi NHNN (OMO, ti cp vn, thu chi v cho vay qua m...). Ni cch khc, do hn ch trong vic lu k nn vic chuyn nhng gia cc nh u t tn phiu ti Vit Nam vn cha th thc hin c nh thng l ti cc nc trn th gii. iu ny dn ti tnh trng th trng th cp tn phiu cha pht trin, tnh thanh khon b hn ch. y cng l mt trong nhng nguyn nhn nh hng rt ln ti s pht trin ca th trng th cp tn phiu. (Xem bng 3)

Nh vy, qua s liu trn chng ta c th d dng nhn thy rng, vi khi lng pht hnh l 66.212 t ng nhng khi lng giao dch gia cc nh u t qua hai phng thc Outright v Repos ln ti 262.688 t ng, gp gn 4 ln gi tr pht hnh ti th trng s cp. Trong khi , d khi lng giao dch OMO vi NHNN ca cc TCTD l 316.075 t ng, gp khong gn 15 ln so vi khi lng pht hnh ban u, nhng thc cht cc giao dch OMO trong tng phin cng c gi tr khng cao. V, i vi cc phin cho mua k hn ca OMO thi gian qua ch yu l mua k hn t 7 ngy v 14 ngy, do , nu tnh t nm 2009 n ht 30/6/2011, c trung bnh khong 2.431 t ng tn phiu c giao dch/tun. Nu so snh vi cc loi giy t c gi c cc TCTD s dng trong OMO thi gian qua trong cc giao dch vi NHNN th tn phiu ch chim khong 5,9%/tng khi lng giy t c gi giao dch (316.075 t ng/5.359.193 t ng).

Mt con s kh khim tn so vi tin tch ca loi hng ha ny nu xt trn phng din l thuyt. - Tn phiu kho bc c pht hnh trn th trng s cp trn c s u thu. Vic xc nh khi lng v li sut trng thu ca tn phiu kho bc c da vo khi lng, li sut t thu ca cc thnh vin v khi lng tn phiu kho bc Chnh ph mun huy ng. Khi lng tn phiu trng thu c tnh theo th t tng ln ca li sut t thu. Li sut pht hnh tn phiu l li sut trng thu cao nht c p dng chung cho tt c cc i tng trng thu. Vit Nam, Chnh ph a ra li sut ch o trong qu trnh u thu v li sut trng thu khng c vt qu li sut ch o ny. Li sut ch o c p dng gii hn mc li ti a m Chnh ph phi tr cho tn phiu kho bc huy ng, trong khi c nhng phin u thu, nh u t t thu vi mc li sut kh cao (thm ch, li sut t thu cao hn li sut ca tri phiu Chnh ph k hn 2 nm), lm nh hng n mc gi thc ca tn phiu. iu ny dn ti tnh trng Chnh ph kh c th huy ng c khi lng tn phiu nh mong mun. - Hnh thc tn phiu hin nay ang p dng l hnh thc chit khu, tr li trc. Thc cht l tn phiu c bn thp hn mnh gi v thanh ton theo mnh gi khi o hn, ch khng tr li theo nh k. iu ny c ngha, n cui k thanh ton ca tn phiu B Ti chnh phi s dng thm mt t sut chit khu cho dng tin m.

3. Nhng nt mi trong cng tc pht hnh tn phiu thi gian ti Vi mc tiu t ra l nng cao hiu qu huy ng vn cho NSNN v chun ha cng tc, trong thng 7/2011, B Ti chnh thc hin Hi tho ly kin ca cc B, ngnh lin quan v cng chng i vi Thng t hng dn vic pht hnh tn phiu qua NHNN. Theo , trong thi gian ti, B Ti chnh vi t cch l ch th pht hnh s thng nht danh sch chung i vi thnh vin th trng tri phiu v thc hin cng b hng nm trn phng tin thng tin i chng theo quy nh (bao gm c TPCP v tn phiu). y l nt mi u tin v c tnh khoa hc, thng nht qun l thnh vin th trng. ng thi, B Ti chnh s c trch nhim quy nh tiu chun v iu kin i vi cc thnh vin u thu, bao gm c i l cp I. ng thi, chun ha cng tc pht hnh theo thng l quc t v rt ngn thi gian thanh ton (T), gim thiu ri ro thanh ton cho NSNN v to iu kin cho nh u t ch ng k hoch ngun vn tham gia, B Ti chnh thng nht lch biu pht hnh thng nht v c tnh cht nh k. Thi gian qua, vic t chc u thu cng c N ca Chnh ph c t chc hai ni. u thu TPCP thc hin S Giao dch chng khon H

Ni loi t 2 nm tr ln. u thu tn phiu thc hin S Giao dch NHNN i vi loi t 364 ngy tr xung. V vn ny cng c kin thnh vin cho rng nn t chc u thu mt ni thng nht. Tuy nhin, d t chc u cng c mt thun li v cha thun li. Nu t chc u thu S Giao dch chng khon H Ni th vic giao dch th cp ca nh u t s thun li hn. V ni y c h thng cng ngh p ng c yu cu giao dch v chuyn i s hu, nhng b khng ch thi gian thanh ton (T+3). Nu t chc S Giao dch NHNN th nh u t c li hn khi tham gia OMO v cc nghip v lin ngn hng, v thi gian thanh ton trong ngy (T 0). Chnh v vy, trong thi gian ti, B Ti chnh thng nht vi NHNN quy nh S Giao dch NHNN cung cp dch v lu k, chuyn nhng tn phiu m bo tn phiu c th c giao dch, chuyn nhng gia cc thnh vin cng nh cc nh u t khc khng phi l TCTD nhm nng cao tnh thanh khon ca tn phiu v thc y th trng th cp pht trin. Mt vn na cng cn ht sc quan tm, l, B Ti chnh cn linh hot p dng khung li sut u thu theo st din bin trn th trng. Thi hn tn phiu cng c th a dng hn, nh k hn 60 ngy, 90 ngy... thay cho ch c loi 360 ngy nh hin nay. ng thi, c chnh sch ph hp nhm thu ht c lng vn u t t cc cng ty bo him, t chc bo him tham gia u thu tn phiu, khng nn tnh trng lng ph vn hay quan h tin gi khng k hn trc tip vi cc TCTD nh hin nay. C th thy rng, s pht trin mnh m ca th trng TPCP ni chung cng nh hot ng u thu tn phiu ni ring s c tc ng hu c vi s pht trin th trng tin t. Hy vng rng, vi s i mi mnh m v c ch chnh sch v chun ha theo thng l quc t, cng tc u thu tn phiu qua NHNN s pht trin hiu qu v p ng c s k vng ca th trng ti chnh Vit Nam trong thi gian ti.
Ti chnh - ngn hng Kiu c sch Th 7, 31/03/2012, 07:00

Th trng tri phiu n sng chnh sch

Thng 6/2012, HNX s vn hnh mt lot h thng mi nh: u thu in t, ng cong li sut v ch s tri phiu Index nhm h tr th trng tri phiu.

t sng chnh sch ny ha hn s h tr thit thc cho th trng pht trin chuyn nghip, si ng hn.

Tm im thng 6

Trong thng 3 ny, c 2 im nhn i vi th trng tri phiu l Th trng B Ti chnh Trn Xun H lm vic trc tip vi i din Hip hi Th trng tri phiu Vit Nam (VBMA) v B Ti chnh cng lnh o Ngn hng Nh nc (NHNN) gp mt cc thnh vin th trng. iu ng ni l sau 2 s kin ny, nhiu cam kt chnh sch c th, thit thc cho th trng c a ra v ang c trin khai trn thc t.

Lnh o S GDCK H Ni (HNX) cho bit, HNX ang gp rt trin khai mt lot cng vic n gia nm nay, s trin khai nhiu gii php mi h tr cho th trng tri phiu. C th, cui thng 5/2012, HNX s t chc giao dch tn phiu Kho bc Nh nc. Thng 6/2012, HNX s vn hnh mt lot h thng mi nh: u thu in t, ng cong li sut v ch s tri phiu Index.

to thun li cho th trng tri phiu pht trin, cc thnh vin th trng kin ngh B Ti chnh, NHNN, y ban Chng khon Nh nc (UBCK) sm ban hnh l trnh pht trin th trng tri phiu n nm 2020, thng t hng dn pht hnh tn phiu kho bc phc v nim yt, giao dch v tp trung thng tin, ng thi, sm ban hnh hnh lang php l{ cho mt s sn phm mi nh hp ng tng lai, giao dch mua bn li s dng hn mt n v tin t.

Cng cn sm ci tin c ch thanh ton theo hng trong ngn hn rt ngn thi gian gi/rt tri phiu gia Trung tm Lu k{ (VSD) v S giao dch NHNN, thng qua kt ni h thng in t v thng nht m lu k{ tri phiu ti 2 n v ny. V di hn, nn xem xt kh nng tp trung lu k{, thanh ton tri phiu gia cc th trng v mt u mi

Kh nhiu kin ngh ca cc thnh vin th trng c B Ti chnh cam kt tr n ngay trong nm nay. Theo ng Trn Xun H, B ang khn trng xy dng v d kin s sm ban hnh quyt nh v thc hin l trnh pht trin th trng tri phiu Vit Nam n nm 2020. Thng t lin tch vi NHNN v pht hnh tn phiu kho bc ti S giao dch NHNN v Thng t hng dn pht hnh tri phiu chnh quyn a phng, cng s c ban hnh trong nm nay.

Nm trong n lc to thun li cho NT tham gia th trng, bt u t 26/3/2012, Thng t 17/2012/TT-BTC hng dn pht hnh tri phiu Chnh ph ti th trng trong nc c hiu lc, nh hnh mt s lut chi minh bch hn. Theo , lch pht hnh tri phiu n nh v cng khai: Kho bc Nh nc s pht hnh tri phiu kz hn trn 1 nm vo ngy 15 v ngy cui cng hng thng; tn phiu kho bc nh nc c pht hnh vo ngy th 3 hng tun. iu ny gip cc thnh vin th trng ch ng c k hoch, nht l sp xp ti chnh tham gia th trng tri phiu hiu qu hn.

Ln u tin c d liu v tri phiu DN

Khong trng thng tin v tri phiu doanh nghip (TPDN) c c hi c khc phc, khi ti cuc lm vic gia Th trng Trn Xun H v VBMA gia thng 3 ny, ng H ng { v nguyn tc giao VBMA xy dng trung tm thng tin v TPDN.

Vi bc tin ny, Ph ch tch VBMA Trnh Hoi Giang nhn nhn, s to thun li cho hot ng pht hnh, giao dch TPDN si ng v minh bch hn. VBMA s tham kho kinh nghim quc t, c bit l t Hip hi Th trng tri phiu Thi Lan, xy dng c s d liu v TPDN. Theo , khi pht hnh tri phiu, cc DN s ng k{ qua VBMA, ng thi, phi cng b chi tit thng tin v k hoch pht hnh qua website ca VMBA. Trn c s , VBMA cp nht d liu v TPDN, nhm p ng nhu cu thng tin y , minh bch cho c c quan qun l{ ln DN.

Mt chuyn ng ng ch { khc, l ln u tin thng ip gia tng tnh ch ng cho VBMA c pht i, khi ng H ng h VBMA thc hin tha thun ca cc nh to lp th trng; tip tc trin khai cc chng trnh o to cho thnh vin; giao VBMA xy dng, ban hnh cc b quy tc v chun mc hot ng cho th trng tri phiu Vit Nam trn tinh thn khng tri php lut. Ngoi cc b quy tc v chun mc xy dng, B Ti chnh ngh VBMA xy dng b cm nang hoc s tay v hot ng t vn, bo lnh pht hnh tri phiu hng dn cc thnh vin th trng.

Nhng bt cp trong qu trnh vn hnh th trng c trin vng c tho g kp thi hn, khi B Ti chnh v VBMA thng nht tip tc duy tr c ch i thoi ci m. B ngh VBMA cng nh cc n v lin quan ch ng phi hp vi NHNN, m rng cc ch i thoi v chnh sch ti kha, tin t, thu trong thi gian ti.

Pht hnh tn phiu: n c tri tn

Tn phiu NHNN l cng c iu tit tin t t khi c s dng, tuy nhin trong nhng trng hp cp bch li l cng c hiu qu iu tit lng cung tin trn th trng.

Trong phin hp bo thng k Chnh ph, Thng c Nguyn Vn Bnh cho bit c th s pht hnh tn phiu vi cc k hn khc nhau, linh hot ht tin d tha m bo kim ch lm pht. Phin giao dch th trng m ngy 15/3, mt khi lng khong 1.700 t ng tn phiu vi cc k hn di 6 thng c giao dch. Hng lot thc mc v l do, mc ch, qui m v thi im pht hnh, li sut v cch thc pht hnh,... ang xn xao trn th trng. Tn phiu Ngn hng nh nc: Cng c t dng V bn cht, tn phiu NHNN l mt trong nhng cng c iu tit lng cung tin ca NHNN vi c ch tng t nh cng c tri phiu chnh ph (TPCP) song li c thi hn di 1 nm tng t nh tn phiu Kho bc Nh nc (KBNN). NHNN c th pht hnh tn phiu thu ht tin v, gim lng tin trn th trng thc hin chnh sch tin t tht cht nhm chng lm pht hay ngc li, NHNN mua vo tn phiu tng lng cung tin, ni lng chnh sch tin t nhm kch thch tng trng khi nguy c lm pht cao khng cn hoc t nht l gim. Ngi nm gi tn phiu NHNN thng l cc nh ch ti chnh kh c th s dng tn phiu NHNN trn th trng m (OMO) m thng buc phi gi li n khi o hn hng mt mc li sut nht nh. Tuy nhin, cng c tn phiu NHNN khng thng xuyn c s dng do theo c ch th trng th TPCP m nhn c vai tr hng ho ch o trn th trng m vi nhng u th hp dn tuyt i c v li sut, qui m, thi hn, tnh thanh khon v mc ri ro. Hn na, sc mnh can thip vo th trng ti chnh tin t ca cng c tn phiu NHNN khng hiu lc bng cc cng c truyn thng nh li sut ti cp vn, li sut ti chit khu v t l d tr bt buc. Chnh v vy, tn phiu NHNN ch c s dng trong trng hp cp bch nhm vo mc tiu ngn hn v c bit c hiu qu khi i km vi bin php mang tnh hnh chnh l bt buc, c bt buc mua cng nh bt buc chp nhn mc li sut nht nh thng l thp hn nhiu so vi li sut TPCP v mt bng li sut cho vay trn th trng. V sao phi pht hnh tn phiu? Dng nh l do thuyt phc duy nht cho vic pht hnh tn phiu NHNN nm 2012 l nhm thu ht bt lng VND m NHNN bm ra mua ngoi t, c th l mua USD tng d tr ngoi hi.

Th trng ngoi t Vit Nam u nm 2012 ging u nm 2008 mt cch k l. u thng 3/2008, t gi giao dch bnh qun LNH c NHNN cng b mc trn 16.000 VND/USD th trn th trng t do ch l 15.500 VND/USD, cn u thng 3/2012, trong khi t gi bnh qun LNH c nh mc 20.828 VND/USD sut t 24/12/2011 th cc NHTM ch mua vo vi gi khong 20.850 VND/USD - thp xa so vi gii hn 1% cho php l 21.036 VND/USD v gi USD trn th trng t do cng tng t, thm ch cn thp hn. Din bin t gi hi oi v chnh lch gia t gi chnh thc vi t gi trn th trng t do cho thy trng thi ca th trng ngoi t o ngc t rt cng thng vo cui nm 2010, u nm 2011 sang d tha vo cui nm 2011 v u nm 2012. D tr ngoi hi ca Vit Nam n u nm 2012 tng vt ln trn 20 t USD - ti lp mc d tr tng ng u nm 2008 sau khi gim xung mc di 13 t USD vo u nm 2011. Nh vy, NHNN Vit Nam bm ra th trng hng trm ngn t VND mua vo khong 10 t USD - tng ng mc mua vo c nm 2007 song t gi hi oi tng ti 30% sau 4 nm - trong khi thiu cng c hu hiu trung ho khi lng tin ng ny nn to thm mt trong nhng nguyn nhn c bn y lm pht dng cao vo cc nm 2007-2008 v 2011. R rng, mt mt, NHNN nn cn nhc hiu qu thc s ca cng c tn phiu NHNN bt buc i vi vic trung ho khi lng tin ng bm ra mua vo USD, mt khc, NHNN c th xem xt thay th cng c trc tip mua vo USD nhm tng d tr ngoi hi bng cc cng c khc cho php vn s dng c hiu qu ngun ngoi t di do song khng lm tng nhanh khi lng VND trn th trng, chng hn nh kh nng pht hnh tn phiu, tri phiu bng ngoi t thay v bng VND, tranh th tr n nc ngoi nhm gim gnh nng n hin ang kh cao, khuyn khch u t trc tip v gin tip ra nc ngoi. Lch s c lp li? Ln gn y nht NHNN s dng cng c tn phiu l nm 2008. Va trn 4 nm trc, ngy 17/3/2008, NHNN pht hnh tn phiu NHNN bt buc tr gi 20.300 t VND nhm ht bt tin trong lu thng trong bi cnh chng lm pht leo thang. Tnh n cui thng 2/2008, CPI so vi cng k nm trc tng 15,67% v bnh qun tng 14,89%, c bit tng ti 3,56% so vi thng 1/2008. Dng nh kch bn lm pht cao tng t cng lp li khi cc con s tng ng sau 2 thng u nm 2012 ln lt l 16,44%; 16,85% v 1,37%. Tuy nhin, xu hng lm pht li khng ging nhau khi CPI c nm 2007 tng 12,63% v ln n 19,89% vo cui nm 2008, cn CPI nm 2011 l 18,13% song mc tiu CPI n cui nm 2012 li l a v mc mt con s. Bc tranh tn dng u nm 2008 cng hon ton tng phn vi u nm 2012 ny. Kt thc nm 2007, tng tn dng cho nn kinh t bng n vi mc tng k lc ti 53,9%, tng tin gi cng tng k lc mc 47,6% v tc tng M2 ln ti 46,1% cn tnh n cui nm 2011, cc ch s tng ng ln lt ch l tng tn dng tng khong 12% cn tng tin gi v M2 u tng khong 10%.

Ni cch khc, bi cnh pht hnh tn phiu NHNN bt buc u nm 2008 l chnh sch tin t b ni lng qu mc nn cn c bin php mnh tht cht ngay lp tc v hiu qu song u nm 2012 li chng kin chnh sch tin t tht cht hn c d kin trong sut c nm 2011 (mc tiu tng tng tn dng nm 2011 l 15-17% v M2 tng 15%). T.S V nh nh Thu Tin mi nht:

Hng PSU (Su Tm)

HC KIN TRC - NHIU IU CN BN LUN (05/04/2012) i hc Duy Tn : Ci ni o to ngun nhn lc cht lng cao (28/03/2012) 6 k nng hc tt bc i hc (28/03/2012) Qun tr ri ro trong doanh nghip v vai tr ca cc chuyn gia k ton ti chnh (21/03/2012) Ngh phn tch ti chnh (21/03/2012)

Cc tin khc:

Ngn hng hp nht u tin ang dn n nh (17/03/2012) Ci t ngn hng: Mi ch cha chy (16/03/2012) Ai 'li' nht t tin n thu tm cc ngn hng (16/03/2012) 7 TNG LM AI CNG GANH T (16/03/2012) Phn bit k ton qun tr, k ton ti chnh, k ton tng hp (15/03/2012) 9 yu t gip doanh nghip chim lnh th trng (15/03/2012) Kinh nghim hc nghe ting Anh (15/03/2012) K nng mm (15/03/2012) n sv kin trc: Tnh ng dng v cn bnh hnh thc (12/03/2012) Chin lc i dng xanh theo Philip Kotler v Michael Porter (10/03/2012)