Chuyn k ton qun tr

Cu 1:
1. Ngun vn u t ca d n:
- Vn vay di hn: 5.000 triu ng
- Li nhun gi li: 2.000 triu ng
- Vn t vic pht hnh c phiu mi: 10.000 * 1 * (1 10%) = 9.000 triu ng
Cc ngun vn ny c u t :
- Mua thit b dy chuyn:
Theo gi thit, ta c nguyn gi ca thit b c xc nh:
Nguyn gi = 9.500 + 500 = 10.000 triu ng
- Xy dng nh xng: 4.000 triu ng
- Gia tng vn lu ng rng : 2.000 triu ng
Tng vn u t ban u
STT
1
2
3

Khon mc
Chi ph thit b dy chuyn
Chi ph nh xng
Vn lu ng rng
Tng cng

vt
Tr
Tr
Tr

Gi tr
(10.000,00)
(4.000,00)
(2.000,00)
(16.000,00)

2. K hoch khu hao:

- Thit b dy chuyn:
V thit b c khu hao trong vng 5 nm theo phng php kt s gim dn c iu
chnh nn h s iu chnh l 2.
Ta c, t l khu hao ca thit b: 1/5 * 2 = 0,4 hay 40%
- Nh xng:
Nh xng c khu hao theo phng php ng thng. Do , mc khu khao u
l: 4.000/10 =400 triu ng

GVHD: H PHAN MINH C

Chuyn k ton qun tr

Bng k hoch khu hao

STT

Khon mc

vt

A
1
2

Khu hao thit b

Gi tr cn li u nm
T l khu hao hng nm
Mc khu hao DDB hng nm (1x2)

Tr
%

3
4
B
5
6
7
C

Gi tr cn li cui nm (1-3)
Khu hao nh xng
Gi tr cn li u nm
Mc khu hao hng nm
Gi tr cn li cui nm (5-6)
Tng khu hao (3+6)

Tr
Tr
Tr
Tr
Tr

2002

2003

Nm
2004

2005

2006

10.000,00 6.000,00 3.600,00 2.160,00

40,00
40,00
40,00
40,00
1.440,0
4.000,00 2.400,00
864,00
0
6.000,00 3.600,00 2.160,00 1.296,00

1.296,00
40,00

4.000,00 3.600,00 3.200,00 2.800,00

400,00
400,00
400,00
400,00
3.600,00 3.200,00 2.800,00 2.400,00
4.400,00 2.800,00 1.840,00 1.264,00

2.400,00
400,00
2.000,00
918,40

518,40
777,60

3. Ngn lu rng ca gi tr thu hi ca d n:

- Thit b dy chuyn:
Theo gi thit, gi tr thanh l c tnh ca dy chuyn sau 5 nm l 0 triu ng. Theo
bng khu hao th sau 5 nm thit b c gi tr cn li l 777,6 triu ng.
Cui nm 2006, khi thanh l thit b th b ht vn mt khong: - 777,6 tr
Thu ca khong ht vn l: - 777,6 * 25% = - 194,4 triu ng

- Nh xng:
Theo gi thit, gi tr th trng c tnh ca nh xng sau 5 nm l 3.000 triu ng.
Theo bng khu hao th sau 5 nm nh xng c gi tr cn li l 2.000 triu ng
Nm 2006, Nu thanh l ti sn khi d n kt thc th di vn mt khong:

3.000 2.000 = 1.000 triu ng

Thu ca khong di vn l: 1.000 * 25% = 250 triu ng

GVHD: H PHAN MINH C

Chuyn k ton qun tr

Bng gi tr cn li rng cui nm 2006

vt: Triu ng
STT
1
2
3
4
5

Ch tiu
Gi th trng c tnh nm 2006
Gi tr cn li ca ti sn cui nm 2006
Khong di/ht vn (1-2)
Thu ca khong di/ht vn (3x25%)
Ngn lu rng ca gi tr cn li (1-4)

vt
Tr
Tr
Tr
Tr
Tr

Thit b
0
777,60
(777,60)
(194,40)
194,40

Nh xng
3.000,00
2.000,00
1.000,00
250,00
2.750,00

Cng

2.944,40

4. Sn lng, doanh thu, chi ph sn xut sn phm ca d n:

M gi: theo gi thit, 1 gi m 75gr c gi bn l 1.750 ng
=> 1 tn m gi c gi bn:1.000.000 * 1.750/75 =23.333.333 ng
S
T
T
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14

Nm
Ch tiu

vt

Cng xut ca dy chuyn

Tn
Cng xut sn xut
%
Tng sn lng (1x2)
Tn
Sn lng m vn (3x3%)
Tn
Sn lng m gi (3-4)
Tn
Bin ph n v
Tr/tn
Tng bin ph sn xut (3x6)
Tr
nh ph
Tr
Chi ph sn xut (7+8)
Tr
Gi bn 1 tn m vn
Tr
Gi bn 1 tn m gi
Tr
Doanh thu m vn (4x10)
Tr
Doanh thu m gi (5x11)
Tr
Tng doanh thu (12+13)
Tr

GVHD: H PHAN MINH C

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

10.000,00
30%
3.000,00
90,00
2.910,00
20,00
60.000,00
3.200,00
63.200,00
5,00
23,33
450,00
67.900,00
68.350,00

10.000,00
50%
5.000,00
150,00
4.850,00
20,00
100.000,00
3.200,00
103.200,00
5,00
23,33
750,00
113.166,67
113.916,67

10.000,00
80%
8.000,00
240,00
7.760,00
20,00
160.000,00
3.200,00
163.200,00
5,00
23,33
1.200,00
181.066,67
182.266,67

10.000,00
90%
9.000,00
270,00
8.730,00
20,00
180.000,00
3.200,00
183.200,00
5,00
23,33
1.350,00
203.700,00
205.050,00

10.000,00
90%
9.000,00
270,00
8.730,00
20,00
180.000,00
3.200,00
183.200,00
5,00
23,33
1.350,00
203.700,00
205.050,00

Chuyn k ton qun tr

5. Lch trnh tr li vay v n vay di hn:

Theo gi thit, n gc c tr u trong vng 5 nm => N gc tr hng nm l:
5.000/5 = 1.000 triu ng
STT
1
2
3
4
5
6

Ch tiu
N gc u nm
Tr n gc
Li sut
Li vay phi tr (1x3)
N gc cui nm (1-2)
gc v li phi tr (2+4)

2003
4.000,00
1.000,00
20,00
800,00
3.000,00
1.800,00

Nm
2004
3.000,00
1.000,00
20,00
600,00
2.000,00
1.600,00

2005
2.000,00
1.000,00
20,00
400,00
1.000,00
1.400,00

2006
1.000,00
1.000,00
20,00
200,00
0
1.200,00

Tr
Tr
Tr

2002
2003
63.200,00 103.200,00
4.400,00
2.800,00
1.000,00
800,00

Nm
2004
163.200,00
1.840,00
600,00

2005
183.200,00
1.264,00
400,00

2006
183.200,00
918,40
200,00

Tr

68.600,00 106.800,00

165.640,00

184.864,00

184.318,40

Tr

63.200,00 103.200,00

163.200,00

183.200,00

183.200,00

Nm
2004
182.266,67
165.640,00
16.626,67

2005
205.050,00
184.864,00
20.186,00

2006
205.050,00
184.318,40
20.731,60

4.156,67
12.470,00

5.046,50
15.139,50

5.182,90
15.548,70

vt
Tr
Tr
%
Tr
Tr
Tr

2002
5.000,00
1.000,00
20,00
1.000,00
4.000,00
2.000,00

7. Chi ph kinh doanh:

STT

Ch tiu

1
2
3
4

Chi ph sn xut
Khu hao hng nm
Li vay hng nm
Tng chi ph sn xut

(1+2+3)
CPSX (tr li vay v KH)
(4-2-3)

vt

8. Kt qu kinh doanh ca d n:
STT
1
2
3
4
5

Ch tiu

vt

Tng doanh thu

Tng chi ph sn xut
Li nhun trc thu (1-2)
Thu TNDN (3x25%)
Li nhun sau thu (3-4)

Tr
Tr
Tr
Tr
Tr

GVHD: H PHAN MINH C

2002
2003
68.350,00 113.916,67
68.600,00 106.800,00
(250,00)
7.116,67
1.779,17
(62,50)
(187,50)

5.337,50

Chuyn k ton qun tr

9. Ngn lu rng ca d n:
vt: triu ng
S

Nm

Khon mc

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

205.050,00
183.200,00
5.182,90

T
A
1
2
3

VN U T BAN U

NGN LU HOT NG

1
2
3
4
5

Tng Doanh thu

CPSX (tr li vay v KH)
Thu TNDN
Vn vay
Tr n gc v li vay
Ngn lu hot ng (1)

Thit b dy chuyn
Nh xng
Vn lu ng rng
Cng

(10.000,00)
(4.000,00)
(2.000,00)
(16.000,00)
68.350,00
63.200,00
(62,50)

113.916,67 182.266,67
103.200,00 163.200,00
1.779,17
4.156,67

205.050,00
183.200,00
5.046,50

(2.000,00)

(1.800,00) (1.600,00)

(1.400,00) (1.200,00)

5.000,00
5.000,00

3.212,50

7.137,50

13.310,00

15.403,50

15.467,10

15.403,50

2.944,40
2.000,00
4.944,40
20.411,50

C NGN LU NM KT THC

1 Gi tr cn li rng
2 Thu hi vn lu ng rng
Cng
D

NGN LU RNG D N (2)

(11.000,00)

3.212,50

7.137,50

13.310,00

(1) Ngn lu hot ng = Tng doanh thu CPSX (tr li vay v KH) - Thu TNDN
+ Tr n gc v li vay

(2) Ngn lu rng d n = Chi ph u t + ngn lu hot ng + ngn lu nm kt thc.

10. Chi ph s dng vn bnh qun (WACC), sc sinh li ti thiu (MARR):
Ta c, chi ph s dng vn c phn thng mi:
200.000
+ 3% = 25,22%
1.000.000*(1-10%)

STT
1
2
3

Ngun vn u t
Vn vay di hn
Li nhun gi li
Vn c phn thng mi
Tng cng

Gi tr

T trng

(Tr)
5.000,00
2.000,00
9.000,00
16.000,00

(%)
31,25
12,50
56,25
100,00

Chi ph s dng
(%)
20,00
22,00
25,22

WACC = 0,3125*20%*(1-25%) + 0,125*22% + 0,5625*25,22% 21,62%

GVHD: H PHAN MINH C

Chuyn k ton qun tr

MARR = 21,62% + 3% = 24,62%
11. Cc tiu chun hiu qu ca d n
Vi sut chit khu 24,62% ta c gi tr hin ti ca dng tin d n nh sau:
vt: triu ng
STT
1
2

Nm

Ch tiu

2001

Dng tin rng d n

Dng tin chit khu

(11.000,00)
(11.000,00)

2002
3.212,50
2.577,84

2003
7.137,50
4.595,90

2004

2005

2006

13.310,00
6.877,25

15.403,50
6.386,58

20.411,50
6.791,04

-11.000 + 2.577,84 + 4.595,90

Thi gian hon vn (PP) = 2 +

= 2,56 nm
6.877,25

Gi tr hin ti rng (NPV) = - 11.000 + 2.577,84 + 4.595,90 + 6.877,25 + 6.386,58 + 6.791,04

= 16.228,61 triu ng
Sc sinh li ni b (IRR):
NPV = -11.000 + 3212, 50/(1+IRR) + 7.137,50/(1+IRR)2 + 13.310,00/(1+IRR)3
+ 15.403,50/(1+IRR)4 + 20.411,50/(1+IRR)5 = 0

(1)

Gii phng trnh (1) bng hm excel, ta c: IRR = 66,43%

11. Kt lun:
Ta c: NPV ca d n = 16.228,61 triu ng > 0

(1)

IRR ca d n = 66,43% > 24,62% (MARR)

(2)

PP ca d n = 2,56 nm < 5 nm

(3)

T (1), (2) v (3) cho thy d n ny l ng thc hin

GVHD: H PHAN MINH C

Chuyn k ton qun tr

Cu 2:
1. Gi bn thay i tng/gim 10% so vi gi tr c tnh ban u:
1.1 Gi bn tng 10% so vi gi tr c tnh ban u:
Sau khi thay i gi bn, ta c gi bn mi:
M gi: 23.333.333 * (1 + 10%) = 25.666.667 triu ng/tn
M vn: 5 * (1 + 10%) = 5,5 triu ng/tn
S
T
T
1
2
3
4
5
6
7

Nm
Ch tiu
Gi bn m gi
Sn lng m gi
Doanh thu m gi (1x2)
Gi bn m vn
Sn lng m vn
Doanh thu m vn (4x5)
Tng doanh thu (3+6)

vt
Tr/tn
Tn
Tr
Tr/tn
Tn
Tr
Tr

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

25,67
2.910,00
74.690,00
5,50
90,00
495,00
75.185,00

25,67
4.850,00
124.483,33
5,50
150,00
825,00
125.308,33

25,67
7.760,00
199.173,33
5,50
240,00
1320,00
200.493,33

25,67
8.730,00
224.070,00
5,50
270,00
1.485,00
225.555,00

25,67
8.730,00
224.070,00
5,50
270,00
1.485,00
225.555,00

Do gi bn thay i lm nh hng n kt qu kinh doanh ca d n, ta c bng kt qu kinh

doanh khi gi bn tng 10%:

STT
1
2
3
4
5

Ch tiu

vt

Tng doanh thu

Tng chi ph sn xut
Li nhun trc thu (1-2)
Thu TNDN (3x25%)
Li nhun sau thu (3-4)

Tr
Tr
Tr
Tr
Tr

GVHD: H PHAN MINH C

2002
2003
75.185,00 125.308,33
68.600,00 106.800,00
6.585,00 18.508,33
1.646,25
4.627,08
4.938,75

13.881,25

Nm
2004
200.493,33
165.640,00
34.853,33
8.713,33

2005
225.555,00
184.864,00
40.691,00
10.172,75

2006
225.555,00
184.318,40
41.236,60
10.309,15

26.140,00

30.518,25

30.927,45

Chuyn k ton qun tr

Bng ngn lu d n khi gi bn tng 10%:
vt: triu ng
S
T

Nm
Khon mc

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

225.555,00
183.200,00

225.555,00
183.200,00

10.172,75

10.309,15

T
A
1
2
3

VN U T BAN U

NGN LU HOT NG

1
2
3
4
5

Tng Doanh thu

CPSX (tr li vay v KH)
Thu TNDN
Vn vay
Tr n gc v li vay
Ngn lu hot ng (1)

Thit b dy chuyn
Nh xng
Vn lu ng rng
Cng

(10.000,00)
(4.000,00)
(2.000,00)
(16.000,00)
75.185,00
63.200,00

1.646,25

125.308,33 200.493,33
103.200,00 163.200,00

4.627,08

8.713,33

5.000,00
(2.000,00)
5.000,00

8.338,75

(1.800,00) (1.600,00)
15.681,25

26.980,00

(1.400,00) (1.200,00)
30.782,25

30.845,85

30.782,25

2.944,40
2.000,00
4.944,40
35.790,25

C NGN LU NM KT THC

1 Gi tr cn li rng
2 Thu hi vn lu ng rng
Cng
D

NGN LU RNG D N (2)

(11.000,00)

8.338,75

15.681,25

26.980,00

Vi sut chit khu c chn l 24.62% v bng ngn lu sau khi tng 10% gi bn so vi c
tnh ban u, ta c NPV sau khi thay i gi bn:
NPV = -11.000 + 8.338,75/(1+24,62%) + 15.681,25/(1+24,62%)^2 + 26.980,00/(1+24,62%)^3
+ 30.782,25/(1+24,62%)^4 + 35.790,25/(1+24,62%)^5 = 44.399,70 triu ng

GVHD: H PHAN MINH C

Chuyn k ton qun tr

1.2 Gi bn gim 10% so vi gi tr c tnh ban u:
Sau khi thay i gi bn, ta c gi bn mi:
M gi: 23.333.333 * (1 - 10%) = 21 triu ng/tn
M vn: 5 * (1 - 10%) = 4,5 triu ng/tn
S
T
T
1
2
3
4
5
6
7

Nm
Ch tiu
Gi bn m gi
Sn lng m gi
Doanh thu m gi (1x2)
Gi bn m vn
Sn lng m vn
Doanh thu m vn (4x5)
Tng doanh thu (3+6)

vt
Tr/tn
Tn
Tr
Tr/tn
Tn
Tr
Tr

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

21,00
2.910,00
61.110,00
4,50
90,00
405,00
61.515,00

21,00
4.850,00
101.850,00
4,50
150,00
675,00
102.525,00

21,00
7.760,00
162.960,00
4,50
240,00
1.080,00
164.040,00

21,00
8.730,00
183.330,00
4,50
270,00
1.215,00
184.545,00

21,00
8.730,00
183.330,00
4,50
270,00
1.215,00
184.545,00

2002
2003
61.515,00 102.525,00
68.600,00 106.800,00
(7.085,00) (4.275,00)
(1.771,25) (1.608,75)
(5.313,75) (3.206,25)

Nm
2004
164.040,00
165.640,00
(1.600,00)
(400,00)
(1.200,00)

2005
184.545,00
184.864,00
(319,00)
(79,75)
(239,25)

2006
184.545,00
184.318,40
226,60
56,65
169,95

Bng kt qu kinh doanh khi gi bn gim 10% :

STT
1
2
3
4
5

Ch tiu

vt

Tng doanh thu

Tng chi ph sn xut
Li nhun trc thu (1-2)
Thu TNDN (3x25%)
Li nhun sau thu (3-4)

Tr
Tr
Tr
Tr
Tr

Bng ngn lu d n khi gi bn gim 10%

GVHD: H PHAN MINH C

Chuyn k ton qun tr

vt: triu ng
S
T

Nm
Khon mc

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

184.545,00
183.200,00
56,65

T
A
1
2
3

VN U T BAN U

NGN LU HOT NG

1
2
3
4
5

Tng Doanh thu

CPSX (tr li vay v KH)
Thu TNDN
Vn vay
Tr n gc v li vay
Ngn lu hot ng (1)

Thit b dy chuyn
Nh xng
Vn lu ng rng
Cng

(10.000,00)
(4.000,00)
(2.000,00)
(16.000,00)
61.515,00
63.200,00
(1.771,25)

102.525,00 164.040,00
103.200,00 163.200,00
(1.608,75)
(400,00)

184.545,00
183.200,00
(79,75)

(2.000,00)

(1.800,00) (1.600,00)

(1.400,00) (1.200,00)

5.000,00
5.000,00

(1.913,75)

(1.406,25)

(360,00)

24,75

88,35

24,75

2.944,40
2.000,00
4.944,40
5.032,75

C NGN LU NM KT THC

1 Gi tr cn li rng
2 Thu hi vn lu ng rng
Cng
D

NGN LU RNG D N (2)

(11.000,00)

(1.913,75)

(1.406,25)

(360,00)

Vi sut chit khu c chn l 24.62% v bng ngn lu sau khi gim 10% gi bn so vi c
tnh ban u, ta c NPV sau khi thay i gi bn:
NPV = -11.000 + (-1.913,75)/(1+24,62%) + (-1.406,25)/(1+24,62%)^2
+ (-360,00)/(1+24,62%)^3 + 24,75/(1+24,62%)^4 + 5.032,75/(1+24,62%)^5
= - 11.942,49 triu ng

GVHD: H PHAN MINH C

10

Chuyn k ton qun tr

2. Chi ph bin i n v thay i tng/gim 10% so vi gi tr c tnh ban u:
2.1 Chi ph bin i n v tng 10% so vi gi tr c tnh ban u:
Sau khi tng 10% bin ph so vi c tnh ban u, ta c bin ph n v mi:
20 * (1+10%) = 22 triu ng/tn
Ta c bng chi ph sn xut sau khi bin ph n v tng 10%:
S
T
T
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

Nm
Ch tiu

vt

Bin ph n v
Sn lng m gi
Bin ph SX m gi (1x2)
Sn lng m vn
Bin ph t m vn (1x4)
Tng bin ph(3+5)
nh ph
Chi ph sn xut (6+7)
Khu hao hng nm
Li vay hng nm
Tng chi ph sn xut

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

Tr/tn
Tn
Tr
Tn
Tr
Tr
Tr
Tr
Tr
Tr

22,00
2.910,00
64.020,00
90,00
1.980,00
66.000,00
3.200,00
69.200,00
4.400,00
1.000,00

22,00
4.850,00
106.700,00
150,00
3.300,00
110.000,00
3.200,00
113.200,00
2.800,00
800,00

22,00
7.760,00
170.720,00
240,00
5.280,00
176.000,00
3.200,00
179.200,00
1.840,00
600,00

22,00
8.730,00
192.060,00
270,00
5.940,00
198.000,00
3.200,00
201.200,00
1.264,00
400,00

22,00
8.730,00
192.060,00
270,00
5.940,00
198.000,00
3.200,00
201.200,00
918,40
200,00

Tr

74.600,00

116.800,00

181.640,00

202.864,00

202.318,40

Tr

69.200,00

113.200,00

179.200,00

201.200,00

201.200,00

Nm
2004
182.266,67
181.640,00
626.67
156,67

2005
205.050,00
202.864,00
2.186,00
546,50

2006
205.050,00
202.318,40
2.731,60
682,90

470,00

1.639,50

2.048,70

(8+9+10)
CPSX (tr li vay v KH)
(11-9-10)

Kt qu kinh doanh ca d n sau khi tng 10% bin ph n v:

STT
1
2
3
4
5

Ch tiu

vt

Tng doanh thu

Tng chi ph sn xut
Li nhun trc thu (1-2)
Thu TNDN (3x25%)
Li nhun sau thu (3-4)

Tr
Tr
Tr
Tr
Tr

2002
2003
68.350,00 113.916,67
74.600,00 116.800,00
(6.250,00) (2.883,33)
(1.562,50)
(720,83)
(4.687,50)

(2.162,50)

Bng ngn lu d n sau khi bin ph n v tng 10%:

GVHD: H PHAN MINH C

11

Chuyn k ton qun tr

vt: triu ng
S
T

Nm
Khon mc

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

205.050,00
201.200,00

205.050,00
201.200,00

546,50

682,90

T
A
1
2
3

VN U T BAN U

NGN LU HOT NG

1
2
3
4
5

Tng Doanh thu

CPSX (tr li vay v KH)
Thu TNDN
Vn vay
Tr n gc v li vay
Ngn lu hot ng (1)

Thit b dy chuyn
Nh xng
Vn lu ng rng
Cng

(10.000,00)
(4.000,00)
(2.000,00)
(16.000,00)
68.350,00
69.200,00

(1.562,50)

113.916,67 182.266,67
113.200,00 179.200,00

(720,83)

156,67

5.000,00
(2.000,00)
5.000,00

(1.287,50)

(1.800,00) (1.600,00)
(362,50)

1.310,00

(1.400,00) (1.200,00)
1.903,50

1.967,10

1.903,50

2.944,40
2.000,00
4.944,40
6.911,50

C NGN LU NM KT THC

1 Gi tr cn li rng
2 Thu hi vn lu ng rng
Cng
D

NGN LU RNG D N (2)

(11.000,00)

(1.287,50)

(362,50)

1.310,00

Vi sut chit khu c chn l 24.62% v bng ngn lu sau khi tng 10% bin ph n v so
vi c tnh ban u, ta c NPV sau khi thay i:
NPV = -11.000 + (-1.287,50)/(1+24,62%) + (-362,50)/(1+24,62%)^2
+ 1.310,00/(1+24,62%)^3 + 1.903,50/(1+24,62%)^4 + 6.911,50/(1+24,62%)^5
= - 8.500,96 triu ng

GVHD: H PHAN MINH C

12

Chuyn k ton qun tr

2.2 Chi ph bin i n v gim 10% so vi gi tr c tnh ban u:
Sau khi gim10% bin ph so vi c tnh ban u, ta c bin ph n v mi:
20 * (1 - 10%) = 18 triu ng/tn
S
T
T
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

Nm
Ch tiu

vt

Bin ph n v
Sn lng m gi
Bin ph SX m gi (1x2)
Sn lng m vn
Bin ph t m vn (1x4)
Tng bin ph(3+5)
nh ph
Chi ph sn xut (6+7)
Khu hao hng nm
Li vay hng nm
Tng chi ph sn xut

Tr/tn
Tn
Tr
Tn
Tr
Tr
Tr
Tr
Tr
Tr

18,00
2.910,00
52.380,00
90,00
1.620,00
54.000,00
3.200,00
57.200,00
4.400,00
1.000,00

Tr
Tr

(8+9+10)
CPSX (tr li vay v KH)
(11-9-10)

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

18,00
4.850,00
87.300,00
150,00
2.700,00
90.000,00
3.200,00
93.200,00
2.800,00
800,00

18,00
7.760,00
139.680,00
240,00
4.320,00
144.000,00
3.200,00
147.200,00
1.840,00
600,00

18,00
8.730,00
157.140,00
270,00
4.860,00
162.000,00
3.200,00
165.200,00
1.264,00
400,00

18,00
8.730,00
157.140,00
270,00
4.860,00
162.000,00
3.200,00
165.200,00
918,40
200,00

62.600,00

96.800,00

149.640,00

166.864,00

166.318,40

57.200,00

93.200,00

147.200,00

165.200,00

165.200,00

Nm
2004
182.266,67
149.640,00
32.626,67
8.156,67
24.470,00

2005
205.050,00
166.864,00
38.186,00
9.546,50
28.639,50

2006
205.050,00
166.318,40
38.731,60
9.682,90
29.048,70

Kt qu kinh doanh ca d n sau khi gim 10% bin ph n v:

STT
1
2
3
4
5

Ch tiu

vt

Tng doanh thu

Tng chi ph sn xut
Li nhun trc thu (1-2)
Thu TNDN (3x25%)
Li nhun sau thu (3-4)

Tr
Tr
Tr
Tr
Tr

GVHD: H PHAN MINH C

2002
2003
68.350,00 113.916,67
62.600,00 96.800,00
5.570,00 17.116,67
1.437,50
4.279,17
4.312,50 12.837,50

13

Chuyn k ton qun tr

Bng ngn lu d n sau khi bin ph n v gim 10%:
vt: Triu ng
S
T

Nm
Khon mc

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

205.050,00
165.200,00
9.682,90

T
A
1
2
3

VN U T BAN U

NGN LU HOT NG

1
2
3
4
5

Tng Doanh thu

CPSX (tr li vay v KH)
Thu TNDN
Vn vay
Tr n gc v li vay
Ngn lu hot ng (1)

Thit b dy chuyn
Nh xng
Vn lu ng rng
Cng

(10.000,00)
(4.000,00)
(2.000,00)
(16.000,00)
68.350,00
57.200,00
1.437,50

113.916,67 182.266,67
93.200,00 147.200,00
4.279,17
8.156,67

205.050,00
165.200,00
9.546,50

(2.000,00)

(1.800,00) (1.600,00)

(1.400,00) (1.200,00)

5.000,00
5.000,00

7.712,50

14.637,50

25.310,00

28.903,50

28.967,10

28.903,50

2.944,40
2.000,00
4.944,40
33.911,50

C NGN LU NM KT THC

1 Gi tr cn li rng
2 Thu hi vn lu ng rng
Cng
D

NGN LU RNG D N (2)

(11.000,00)

7.712,50

14.637,50

25.310,00

Vi sut chit khu c chn l 24.62% v bng ngn lu sau khi gim 10% bin ph n v so
vi c tnh ban u, ta c NPV sau khi thay i:
NPV = -11.000 + 7.712,5/(1+24,62%) + 14.637,5/(1+24,62%)^2 + 25.310/(1+24,62%)^3
+ 28.903,5/(1+24,62%)^4 + 33.911,5/(1+24,62%)^5 = 40.958,17 triu ng

GVHD: H PHAN MINH C

14

Chuyn k ton qun tr

3. Sn lng hng nm thay i tng/gim 10% so vi gi tr c tnh ban u:
3.1 Sn lng hng nm tng 10% so vi gi tr c tnh ban u:
Sau khi sn lng hng nm tng 10%, ta c: Sn lng mi = Sn lng ban u x ( 1 + 10%)
S

Nm

Ch tiu

vt

T
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16

Sn lng m gi
Sn lng m vn
Gi bn m gi
Doanh thu m gi (1x3)
Gi bn m vn
Doanh thu m vn (2x5)
Tng doanh thu (4+6)
Bin ph n v
Bin ph SX m gi (1x8)
Bin ph t m vn (2x8)
Tng bin ph(9+10)
nh ph
Chi ph sn xut(11+12)
Khu hao hng nm
Li vay hng nm
Tng chi ph sn xut

17

(13+14+15)
CPSX (tr li vay v KH)

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

Tn
Tn
Tr/tn
Tr
Tr/tn
Tr
Tr
Tr/tn
Tr
Tr
Tr
Tr
Tr
Tr
Tr

3.201,00
99,00
23,33
74.690,00
5,00
495,00
75.185,00
20,00
64.020,00
1.980,00
66.000,00
3.200,00
69.200,00
4.400,00
1.000,00

5.335,00
165,00
23,33
124.493,33
5,00
825,00
125.308,33
20,00
106.700,00
3.300,00
110.000,00
3.200,00
113.200,00
2.800,00
800,00

8.536,00
264,00
23,33
199.173,33
5,00
1.320,00
200.493,33
20,00
170.720,00
5.280,00
176.000,00
3.200,00
179.200,00
1.840,00
600,00

9.603,00
297,00
23,33
224.070,00
5,00
1.485,00
225.555,00
20,00
192.060,00
5.940,00
198.000,00
3.200,00
201.200,00
1.264,00
400,00

9.603,00
297,00
23,33
224.070,00
5,00
1.485,00
225.555,00
20,00
192.060,00
5.940,00
198.000,00
3.200,00
201.200,00
918,40
200,00

Tr

74.600,00

116.800,00

181.640,00

202.864,00

202.318,40

Tr

69.200,00

113.200,00

179.200,00

201.200,00

201.200,00

Nm
2004
200.493,33
181.640,00
18.853,33
4.713,33
14.140,00

2005
225.555,00
202.864,00
22.691,00
5.672,75
17.018,25

2006
225.555,00
202.318,40
23.236,60
5.809,15
17.427,45

(11-14-15)

Kt qu kinh doanh ca d n sau khi sn lng tng 10%

STT
1
2
3
4
5

Ch tiu

vt

Tng doanh thu

Tng chi ph sn xut
Li nhun trc thu (1-2)
Thu TNDN (3x25%)
Li nhun sau thu (3-4)

Tr
Tr
Tr
Tr
Tr

2002
2003
75.185,00 125.308,33
74.600,00 116.800,00
585,00
8.508,33
146,25
2.127,08
438,75
6.381,25

Bng ngn lu d n sau khi sn lng hng nm tng 10%

vt: Triu ng
S
T

Nm
Khon mc

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

T
A VN U T BAN U
1 Thit b dy chuyn
2 Nh xng

(10.000,00)
(4.000,00)

GVHD: H PHAN MINH C

15

Chuyn k ton qun tr

3

Vn lu ng rng
Cng

NGN LU HOT NG

1
2
3
4
5

Tng Doanh thu

CPSX (tr li vay v KH)
Thu TNDN
Vn vay
Tr n gc v li vay
Ngn lu hot ng (1)

(2.000,00)
(16.000,00)
75.185,00
69.200,00
146,25

125.308,33 200.493,33
113.200,00 179.200,00
2.127,08
4.713,33

225.555,00
201.200,00
5.672,75

225.555,00
201.200,00
5.809,15

(2.000,00)

(1.800,00) (1.600,00)

(1.400,00) (1.200,00)

5.000,00
5.000,00

3.838,75

8.181,25

24.980,00

17.282,25

17.345,85

17.282,25

2.944,40
2.000,00
4.944,40
22.290,25

C NGN LU NM KT THC

1 Gi tr cn li rng
2 Thu hi vn lu ng rng
Cng
D

NGN LU RNG D N (2)

(11.000,00)

3.838,75

8.181,25

14.980,00

Vi sut chit khu c chn l 24.62% v bng ngn lu sau khi tng sn lng hng nm
10% so vi c tnh ban u, ta c NPV sau khi thay i:
NPV = -11.000 + 3.838,75/(1+24,62%) + 8.181,25/(1+24,62%)^2 + 14.980/(1+24,62%)^3
+ 17.282,25/(1+24,62%)^4 + 22.290,25/(1+24,62%)^5 = 19.670,14 triu ng

GVHD: H PHAN MINH C

16

Chuyn k ton qun tr

3.2 Sn lng hng nm gim 10% so vi gi tr c tnh ban u:
Sau khi sn lng hng nm gim 10%, ta c:
Sn lng mi = Sn lng ban u x ( 1 - 10%)
S

Nm

Ch tiu

vt

T
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16

Sn lng m gi
Sn lng m vn
Gi bn m gi
Doanh thu m gi (1x3)
Gi bn m vn
Doanh thu m vn (2x5)
Tng doanh thu (4+6)
Bin ph n v
Bin ph SX m gi (1x8)
Bin ph t m vn (2x8)
Tng bin ph(9+10)
nh ph
Chi ph sn xut(11+12)
Khu hao hng nm
Li vay hng nm
Tng chi ph sn xut

17

(13+14+15)
CPSX (tr li vay v KH)

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

Tn
Tn
Tr/tn
Tr
Tr/tn
Tr
Tr
Tr/tn
Tr
Tr
Tr
Tr
Tr
Tr
Tr

2.619,00
81,00
23,33
61.110,00
5,00
405,00
61.515,00
20,00
52.380,00
1.620,00
54.000,00
3.200,00
57.200,00
4.400,00
1.000,00

4.365,00
135,00
23,33
101.850,00
5,00
675,00
102.525,00
20,00
87.300,00
2.700,00
90.000,00
3.200,00
93.200,00
2.800,00
800,00

6.984,00
216,00
23,33
162.960,00
5,00
1.080,00
164.040,00
20,00
139.680,00
4.320,00
144.000,00
3.200,00
147.200,00
1.840,00
600,00

7.857,00
243,00
23,33
183.330,00
5,00
1.215,00
184.545,00
20,00
157.140,00
4.860,00
162.000,00
3.200,00
165.200,00
1.264,00
400,00

7.857,00
243,00
23,33
183.330,00
5,00
1.215,00
184.545,00
20,00
157.140,00
4.860,00
162.000,00
3.200,00
165.200,00
918,40
200,00

Tr

62.600,00

96.800,00

149.640,00

166.864,00

166.318,40

Tr

57.200,00

93.200,00

147.200,00

165.200,00

165.200,00

Nm
2004
164.040,00
149.640,00
14.400,00
3.600,00
10.800,00

2005
184.545,00
166.864,00
17.681,00
4.420,25
13.260,75

2006
184.545,00
166.318,40
18.226,60
4.556,65
13.669,95

(11-14-15)

Kt qu kinh doanh ca d n sau khi sn lng tng 10%

STT
1
2
3
4
5

Ch tiu

vt

Tng doanh thu

Tng chi ph sn xut
Li nhun trc thu (1-2)
Thu TNDN (3x25%)
Li nhun sau thu (3-4)

Tr
Tr
Tr
Tr
Tr

2002
2003
61.515,00 102.525,00
62.600,00 96.800,00
(1.085,00)
5.725,00
(271,25)
1.431,25
(813,75)
4.293,75

Bng ngn lu d n sau khi sn lng hng nm gim 10%

vt: Triu ng
S
T

Nm
Khon mc

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

T
A VN U T BAN U
1 Thit b dy chuyn
2 Nh xng

(10.000,00)
(4.000,00)

GVHD: H PHAN MINH C

17

Chuyn k ton qun tr

3

Vn lu ng rng
Cng

NGN LU HOT NG

1
2
3
4
5

Tng Doanh thu

CPSX (tr li vay v KH)
Thu TNDN
Vn vay
Tr n gc v li vay
Ngn lu hot ng (1)

(2.000,00)
(16.000,00)
61.515,00
57.200,00
(271,25)

102.525,00 164.040,00
93.200,00 147.200,00
1.431,25
3.600,00

184.545,00
165.200,00
4.420,25

184.545,00
165.200,00
4.556,65

(2.000,00)

(1.800,00) (1.600,00)

(1.400,00) (1.200,00)

5.000,00
5.000,00

2586,25

6.093,75

11.640,00

13.524,75

13.588,35

13.524,75

2.944,40
2.000,00
4.944,40
18.532,75

C NGN LU NM KT THC

1 Gi tr cn li rng
2 Thu hi vn lu ng rng
Cng
D

NGN LU RNG D N (2)

(11.000,00)

2586,25

6.093,75

11.640,00

Vi sut chit khu c chn l 24.62% v bng ngn lu sau khi tng sn lng hng nm
10% so vi c tnh ban u, ta c NPV sau khi thay i:
NPV = -11.000 + 2586,25/(1+24,62%) + 6.093,75/(1+24,62%)^2 + 11.640/(1+24,62%)^3
+ 13.524,75/(1+24,62%)^4 + 18.532,75/(1+24,62%)^5 = 12.787,08 triu ng

GVHD: H PHAN MINH C

18

Chuyn k ton qun tr

4. Chi ph c nh thay i tng/gim 10% so vi gi tr c tnh ban u:
4.1 Chi ph c nh tng 10% so vi gi tr c tnh ban u:
Chi ph c nh tng 10%, ta c chi ph c nh mi: 3.200 * (1+10%) = 3.520 triu ng
S

Nm

Ch tiu

vt

T
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16

Sn lng m gi
Sn lng m vn
Gi bn m gi
Doanh thu m gi (1x3)
Gi bn m vn
Doanh thu m vn (2x5)
Tng doanh thu (4+6)
Bin ph n v
Bin ph SX m gi (1x8)
Bin ph t m vn (2x8)
Tng bin ph(9+10)
nh ph
Chi ph sn xut(11+12)
Khu hao hng nm
Li vay hng nm
Tng chi ph sn xut

17

(13+14+15)
CPSX (tr li vay v KH)

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

Tn
Tn
Tr/tn
Tr
Tr/tn
Tr
Tr
Tr/tn
Tr
Tr
Tr
Tr
Tr
Tr
Tr

2.910,00
90,00
23,33
67.900,00
5,00
450,00
68.350,00
20,00
58.200,00
1.800,00
60.000,00
3.520,00
63.520,00
4.400,00
1.000,00

4.850,00
150,00
23,33
113.166,67
5,00
750,00
113.916,67
20,00
97.000,00
3.000,00
100.000,00
3.520,00
103.520,00
2.800,00
800,00

7.760,00
240,00
23,33
181.066,67
5,00
1.200,00
182.266,67
20,00
155.200,00
4.800,00
160.000,00
3.520,00
163.520,00
1.840,00
600,00

8.730,00
270,00
23,33
203.700,00
5,00
1.350,00
205.050,00
20,00
174.600,00
5.400,00
180.000,00
3.520,00
183.520,00
1.264,00
400,00

8.730,00
270,00
23,33
203.700,00
5,00
1.350,00
205.050,00
20,00
174.600,00
5.400,00
180.000,00
3.520,00
183.520,00
918,40
200,00

Tr

68.920,00

107.120,00

165.960,00

185.184,00

184.638,40

Tr

63.520,00

103.520,00

163.520,00

183.520,00

183.520,00

Nm
2004
182.266,67
165.960,00
16.306,67

2005
205.050,00
185.184,00
19.866,00

2006
205.050,00
184.638,40
20.411,60

4.076,67
12.230,00

4.966,50
14.899,50

5.102,90
15.308,70

(11-14-15)

Kt qu kinh doanh khi chi ph c nh tng 10%

STT
1
2
3
4
5

Ch tiu

vt

Tng doanh thu

Tng chi ph sn xut
Li nhun trc thu (1-2)
Thu TNDN (3x25%)
Li nhun sau thu (3-4)

Tr
Tr
Tr
Tr
Tr

2002
2003
68.350,00 113.916,67
68.920,00 107.120,00
(570,00)
6.796,67
1.699,17
(142,50)
(427,50)

5.097,50

Bng ngn lu d n sau khi chi ph c nh tng 10%

vt: Triu ng
S
T

Nm
Khon mc

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

T
A
1
2
3

VN U T BAN U

Thit b dy chuyn
Nh xng
Vn lu ng rng
Cng

(10.000,00)
(4.000,00)
(2.000,00)
(16.000,00)

GVHD: H PHAN MINH C

19

Chuyn k ton qun tr

B

NGN LU HOT NG

1
2
3
4
5

Tng Doanh thu

CPSX (tr li vay v KH)
Thu TNDN
Vn vay
Tr n gc v li vay
Ngn lu hot ng (1)

68.350,00
63.520,00

(142,50)

113.916,67 182.266,67
103.520,00 163.520,00
1.699,17
4.076,67

205.050,00
183.520,00
4.966,50

205.050,00
183.520,00
5.102,90

(2.000,00)

(1.800,00) (1.600,00)

(1.400,00) (1.200,00)

5.000,00
5.000,00

2972,50

6.897,50

13.070,00

15.163,50

15.227,10

15.163,50

2.944,40
2.000,00
4.944,40
20.171,50

C NGN LU NM KT THC

1 Gi tr cn li rng
2 Thu hi vn lu ng rng
Cng
D

NGN LU RNG D N (2)

(11.000,00)

2972,50

6.897,50

13.070,00

Vi sut chit khu c chn l 24.62% v bng ngn lu sau khi chi ph c nh tng 10% so
vi c tnh ban u, ta c NPV sau khi thay i:
NPV = -11.000 + 2972,5/(1+24,62%) + 6.897,5/(1+24,62%)^2 + 13.070/(1+24,62%)^3
+ 15.163,50/(1+24,62%)^4 + 20.171,50/(1+24,62%)^5 = 15.578,12 triu ng

GVHD: H PHAN MINH C

20

Chuyn k ton qun tr

4.2 Chi ph c nh gim 10% so vi gi tr c tnh ban u:
Chi ph c nh tng 10%, ta c chi ph c nh mi: 3.200 * (1-10%) = 2.880 triu ng
S

Nm

Ch tiu

vt

T
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16

Sn lng m gi
Sn lng m vn
Gi bn m gi
Doanh thu m gi (1x3)
Gi bn m vn
Doanh thu m vn (2x5)
Tng doanh thu (4+6)
Bin ph n v
Bin ph SX m gi (1x8)
Bin ph t m vn (2x8)
Tng bin ph(9+10)
nh ph
Chi ph sn xut(11+12)
Khu hao hng nm
Li vay hng nm
Tng chi ph sn xut

17

(13+14+15)
CPSX (tr li vay v KH)

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

Tn
Tn
Tr/tn
Tr
Tr/tn
Tr
Tr
Tr/tn
Tr
Tr
Tr
Tr
Tr
Tr
Tr

2.910,00
90,00
23,33
67.900,00
5,00
450,00
68.350,00
20,00
58.200,00
1.800,00
60.000,00
2.880,00
62.880,00
4.400,00
1.000,00

4.850,00
150,00
23,33
113.166,67
5,00
750,00
113.916,67
20,00
97.000,00
3.000,00
100.000,00
2.880,00
102.880,00
2.800,00
800,00

7.760,00
240,00
23,33
181.066,67
5,00
1.200,00
182.266,67
20,00
155.200,00
4.800,00
160.000,00
2.880,00
162.880,00
1.840,00
600,00

8.730,00
270,00
23,33
203.700,00
5,00
1.350,00
205.050,00
20,00
174.600,00
5.400,00
180.000,00
2.880,00
182.880,00
1.264,00
400,00

8.730,00
270,00
23,33
203.700,00
5,00
1.350,00
205.050,00
20,00
174.600,00
5.400,00
180.000,00
2.880,00
182.880,00
918,40
200,00

Tr

68.280,00

106.480,00

165.320,00

184.544,00

183.998,40

Tr

62.880,00

102.880,00

162.880,00

182.880,00

182.880,00

Nm
2004
182.266,67

2005
205.050,00

2006
205.050,00

165.320,00

184.544,00

183.998,40

16.946,67

20.506,00

21.051,60

4.236,67
12.710,00

5.126,50
15.379,50

5.262,90
15.780,70

(11-14-15)

Kt qu kinh doanh khi chi ph c nh gim 10%

STT

Ch tiu

vt

1
2

Tng doanh thu

Tng chi ph sn xut

Tr

3
4
5

Li nhun trc thu (1-2)

Thu TNDN (3x25%)
Li nhun sau thu (3-4)

Tr
Tr
Tr

GVHD: H PHAN MINH C

Tr

2002
2003
68.350,00 113.916,67
106.480,0
68.280,00
0
70,00
7.436,67
1.859,17
17,50
52,50

5.577,50

21

Chuyn k ton qun tr

Bng ngn lu d n sau khi chi ph c nh gim 10%
vt: Triu ng
S
T

Nm
Khon mc

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

205.050,00
182.880,00
5.262,90

T
A
1
2
3

VN U T BAN U

NGN LU HOT NG

1
2
3
4
5

Tng Doanh thu

CPSX (tr li vay v KH)
Thu TNDN
Vn vay
Tr n gc v li vay
Ngn lu hot ng (1)

Thit b dy chuyn
Nh xng
Vn lu ng rng
Cng

(10.000,00)
(4.000,00)
(2.000,00)
(16.000,00)
68.350,00
62.880,00
17,50

113.916,67 182.266,67
102.880,00 162.880,00
1.859,17
4.236,67

205.050,00
182.880,00
5.126,50

(2.000,00)

(1.800,00) (1.600,00)

(1.400,00) (1.200,00)

5.000,00
5.000,00

3.452,50

7.377,50

13.550,00

15.643,50

15.707,10

15.643,50

2.944,40
2.000,00
4.944,40
20.651,50

C NGN LU NM KT THC

1 Gi tr cn li rng
2 Thu hi vn lu ng rng
Cng
D

NGN LU RNG D N (2)

(11.000,00)

3.452,50

7.377,50

13.550,00

Vi sut chit khu c chn l 24.62% v bng ngn lu sau khi tng sn lng hng nm
10% so vi c tnh ban u, ta c NPV sau khi thay i:
NPV = -11.000 + 3.452,50/(1+24,62%) + 7.377,5/(1+24,62%)^2 + 13.550/(1+24,62%)^3
+ 15.643,5/(1+24,62%)^4 + 20.651,5/(1+24,62%)^5 = 16.879,10 triu ng

GVHD: H PHAN MINH C

22

Chuyn k ton qun tr

Ta c, bng thay i ca NPV khi cc bin s u vo thay i:
vt: triu ng
Mc thay i ca
bin s
-10%
0
10%
Vng thay i

Mc thay i ca PNV so vi cc trng hp c s

Gi bn
Bin ph n v
Sn lng
Chi ph c nh
(11.942,49)
40.958,17
12.787,08
16.879,10
16.228,61
16.228,61
16.228,61
16.228,61
44.399,70
(8.500,96)
19.670,14
15.578,12
56.342,19
49.459,13
6.883,06
1.300,98

Nhn xt:
Cc bin s ban u c cng mc tng/gim 10% nhng tc ng do s thay i ca mi bin s
ln NPV l khc nhau. T bng s liu trn ta thy NPV ca d n rt nhy cm vi s thay
i ca gi bn v bin ph n v, kh nhy cm vi s thay i ca sn lng, v khng nhy
cm nhiu vi s thay i ca chi ph c nh. Tuy nhin, s thay i ca gi bn c nh hng
n NPV ln nht.

GVHD: H PHAN MINH C

23

Chuyn k ton qun tr

Cu 3:
1. Tnh hung tt nht:
Gi bn 2.000 ng/ gi => 1 tn m gi c gi bn = 1.000.000 * 2.000/75 = 26.666.666
Ta c bng tnh ton s liu:
S

Nm

Ch tiu

vt

T
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18

Cng sut dy chuyn

Cng sut sn xut
Sn lng m vn (1x2x3%)
Sn lng m gi (1x2-3)
Gi bn m gi
Doanh thu m gi (4x5)
Gi bn m vn
Doanh thu m vn (3x7)
Tng doanh thu (6+8)
Bin ph n v
Bin ph SX m gi (4x10)
Bin ph t m vn (3x10)
Tng bin ph(11+12)
nh ph
Chi ph sn xut(13+14)
Khu hao hng nm
Li vay hng nm
Tng chi ph sn xut

Tn/nm
%
Tn
Tn
Tr/tn
Tr
Tr/tn
Tr
Tr
Tr/tn
Tr
Tr
Tr
Tr
Tr
Tr
Tr

10.000,00
90,00
270,00
8.730,00
26,67
232.800,00
5,00
1.350,00
234.150,00
18,00
157.140,00
4.860,00
162.000,00
2.500,00
164.500,00
4.400,00
1.000,00

10.000,00
90,00
270,00
8.730,00
26,67
232.800,00
5,00
1.350,00
234.150,00
18,00
157.140,00
4.860,00
162.000,00
2.500,00
164.500,00
2.800,00
800,00

10.000,00
90,00
270,00
8.730,00
26,67
232.800,00
5,00
1.350,00
234.150,00
18,00
157.140,00
4.860,00
162.000,00
2.500,00
164.500,00
1.840,00
600,00

10.000,00
90,00
270,00
8.730,00
26,67
232.800,00
5,00
1.350,00
234.150,00
18,00
157.140,00
4.860,00
162.000,00
2.500,00
164.500,00
1.264,00
400,00

10.000,00
90,00
270,00
8.730,00
26,67
232.800,00
5,00
1.350,00
234.150,00
18,00
157.140,00
4.860,00
162.000,00
2.500,00
164.500,00
918,40
200,00

Tr

169.900,00

168.100,00

166.940,00

166.164,00

165.618,40

19

(15+16+17)
CPSX (tr li vay v KH)

Tr

164.500,00

164.500,00

164.500,00

164.500,00

164.500,00

(18-16-17)

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

Bng kt qu kinh doanh ca d n

STT
1
2
3
4
5

Ch tiu

vt

Tng doanh thu

Tng chi ph sn xut
Li nhun trc thu (1-2)
Thu TNDN (3x25%)
Li nhun sau thu (3-4)

Tr
Tr
Tr
Tr
Tr

GVHD: H PHAN MINH C

2002
2003
234.150,00 234.150,00
169.900,00 168.100,00
64.250,00 66.050,00
16.062,50 16.512,50
48.187,50 49.537,50

Nm
2004
234.150,00
166.940,00
67.210,00
16.802,50
50.407,50

2005
234.150,00
166.164,00
67.986,00
16.996,50
50.989,50

2006
234.150,00
165.618,40
68.531,60
17.132,90
51.398,70

24

Chuyn k ton qun tr

Bng ngn lu ca d n
vt: Triu ng
S
T

Nm
Khon mc

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

T
A
1
2
3

VN U T BAN U

NGN LU HOT NG

1
2
3
4
5

Tng Doanh thu

CPSX (tr li vay v KH)
Thu TNDN
Vn vay
Tr n gc v li vay
Ngn lu hot ng (1)

Thit b dy chuyn
Nh xng
Vn lu ng rng
Cng

(10.000,00)
(4.000,00)
(2.000,00)
(16.000,00)
234.150,00
164.500,00

234.150,00 234.150,00
164.500,00 164.500,00

234.150,00
164.500,00

234.150,00
164.500,00

16.062,50

16.512,50 16.802,50

16.996,50

17.132,90

(2.000,00)

(1.800,00) (1.600,00)

(1.400,00) (1.200,00)

5.000,00
5.000,00

51.587,50

51.337,50

51.247,50

51.253,50

51.317,10

51.253,50

2.944,40
2.000,00
4.944,40
56.261,50

C NGN LU NM KT THC

1 Gi tr cn li rng
2 Thu hi vn lu ng rng
Cng
D

NGN LU RNG D N (2)

(11.000,00)

51.587,50

51.337,50

51.247,50

NPV = -11.000 + 51.587,5/(1+24,62%) + 51.337,5/(1+24,62%)^2 + 51.247,5/(1+24,62%)^3

+ 51.253,5/(1+24,62%)^4 + 56.261,5/(1+24,62%)^5 = 129.901,23 triu ng

GVHD: H PHAN MINH C

25

Chuyn k ton qun tr

2. Tnh hung bnh thng:
Gi bn 1 tn m gi = 23.333.333 ng
Ta c bng tnh ton s liu:
S

Nm

Ch tiu

vt

T
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18

Cng sut dy chuyn

Cng sut sn xut
Sn lng m vn (1x2x3%)
Sn lng m gi (1x2-3)
Gi bn m gi
Doanh thu m gi (4x5)
Gi bn m vn
Doanh thu m vn (3x7)
Tng doanh thu (6+8)
Bin ph n v
Bin ph SX m gi (4x10)
Bin ph t m vn (3x10)
Tng bin ph(11+12)
nh ph
Chi ph sn xut(13+14)
Khu hao hng nm
Li vay hng nm
Tng chi ph sn xut

Tn/nm
%
Tn
Tn
Tr/tn
Tr
Tr/tn
Tr
Tr
Tr/tn
Tr
Tr
Tr
Tr
Tr
Tr
Tr

10.000,00
70,00
210,00
6.790,00
23,33
158.433,33
5,00
1.050,00
159.483,33
20,00
135.800,00
4.200,00
140.000,00
3.200,00
143.200,00
4.400,00
1.000,00

10.000,00
70,00
210,00
6.790,00
23,33
158.433,33
5,00
1.050,00
159.483,33
20,00
135.800,00
4.200,00
140.000,00
3.200,00
143.200,00
2.800,00
800,00

10.000,00
70,00
210,00
6.790,00
23,33
158.433,33
5,00
1.050,00
159.483,33
20,00
135.800,00
4.200,00
140.000,00
3.200,00
143.200,00
1.840,00
600,00

10.000,00
70,00
210,00
6.790,00
23,33
158.433,33
5,00
1.050,00
159.483,33
20,00
135.800,00
4.200,00
140.000,00
3.200,00
143.200,00
1.264,00
400,00

10.000,00
70,00
210,00
6.790,00
23,33
158.433,33
5,00
1.050,00
159.483,33
20,00
135.800,00
4.200,00
140.000,00
3.200,00
143.200,00
918,40
200,00

Tr

148.600,00

146.800,00

145.640,00

144.864,00

144.318,40

19

(15+16+17)
CPSX (tr li vay v KH)

Tr

143.200,00

143.200,00

143.200,00

143.200,00

143.200,00

(18-16-17)

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

Bng kt qu kinh doanh ca d n

GVHD: H PHAN MINH C

26

Chuyn k ton qun tr

STT
1
2
3
4
5

Ch tiu

vt

Tng doanh thu

Tng chi ph sn xut
Li nhun trc thu (1-2)
Thu TNDN (3x25%)
Li nhun sau thu (3-4)

Tr
Tr
Tr
Tr
Tr

2002
2003
159.483,33 159.483,33
148.600,00 146.800,00
10.883,33 12.683,33
2.720,83
3.170,83
8.162,50
9.512,50

Nm
2004
159.483,33
145.640,00
13.843,33
3.460,83
10.382,50

2005
159.483,33
144.864,00
14.619,33
3.654,83
10.964,50

2006
159.483,33
144.318,40
15.164,93
3.791,23
11.373,70

Bng ngn lu ca d n
vt: Triu ng
S
T

Nm
Khon mc

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

159.483,33
143.200,00
3.791,23

T
A
1
2
3

VN U T BAN U

NGN LU HOT NG

1
2
3
4
5

Tng Doanh thu

CPSX (tr li vay v KH)
Thu TNDN
Vn vay
Tr n gc v li vay
Ngn lu hot ng (1)

Thit b dy chuyn
Nh xng
Vn lu ng rng
Cng

(10.000,00)
(4.000,00)
(2.000,00)
(16.000,00)
159.483,33
143.200,00
2.720,83

159.483,33 159.483,33
143.200,00 143.200,00
3.170,83
3.460,83

159.483,33
143.200,00
3.654,83

(2.000,00)

(1.800,00) (1.600,00)

(1.400,00) (1.200,00)

5.000,00
5.000,00

11.562,50

11.312,50

11.222,50

11.228,50

11.292,10

11.228,50

2.944,40
2.000,00
4.944,40
16.236,50

C NGN LU NM KT THC

1 Gi tr cn li rng
2 Thu hi vn lu ng rng
Cng
D

NGN LU RNG D N (2)

(11.000,00)

11.562,50

11.312,50

11.222,50

NPV = -11.000 + 11.562,5/(1+24,62%) + 11.312,5/(1+24,62%)^2 + 11.222,5/(1+24,62%)^3

+ 11.228,5/(1+24,62%)^4 + 16.236,5/(1+24,62%)^5 = 21.418,61 triu ng

GVHD: H PHAN MINH C

27

Chuyn k ton qun tr

3. Tnh hung xu nht
Gi bn 1.500 ng/ gi => 1 tn m gi c gi bn = 1.000.000 * 1.500/75 = 20 triu ng
Ta c bng tnh ton s liu:
S

Nm

Ch tiu

T
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18

Cng sut dy chuyn

Cng sut sn xut
Sn lng m vn (1x2x3%)
Sn lng m gi (1x2-3)
Gi bn m gi
Doanh thu m gi (4x5)
Gi bn m vn
Doanh thu m vn (3x7)
Tng doanh thu (6+8)
Bin ph n v
Bin ph SX m gi (4x10)
Bin ph t m vn (3x10)
Tng bin ph(11+12)
nh ph
Chi ph sn xut(13+14)
Khu hao hng nm
Li vay hng nm
Tng chi ph sn xut

19

(15+16+17)
CPSX (tr li vay v KH)

vt

2002

Tn/nm 10.000,00
50,00
%
150,00
Tn
4.850,00
Tn
20,00
Tr/tn
97.000,00
Tr
5,00
Tr/tn
750,00
Tr
97.750,00
Tr
22,00
Tr/tn
106.700,00
Tr
3.300,00
Tr
110.000,00
Tr
4.000,00
Tr
114.000,00
Tr
4.400,00
Tr
1.000,00
Tr

2003

2004

2005

2006

10.000,00
50,00
150,00
4.850,00
20,00
97.000,00
5,00
750,00
97.750,00
22,00
106.700,00
3.300,00
110.000,00
4.000,00
114.000,00
2.800,00
800,00

10.000,00
50,00
150,00
4.850,00
20,00
97.000,00
5,00
750,00
97.750,00
22,00
106.700,00
3.300,00
110.000,00
4.000,00
114.000,00
1.840,00
600,00

10.000,00
50,00
150,00
4.850,00
20,00
97.000,00
5,00
750,00
97.750,00
22,00
106.700,00
3.300,00
110.000,00
4.000,00
114.000,00
1.264,00
400,00

10.000,00
50,00
150,00
4.850,00
20,00
97.000,00
5,00
750,00
97.750,00
22,00
106.700,00
3.300,00
110.000,00
4.000,00
114.000,00
918,40
200,00

Tr

119.400,00

117.600,00

116.440,00

115.664,00

115.118,40

Tr

114.000,00

114.000,00

114.000,00

114.000,00

114.000,00

(18-16-17)

Bng kt qu kinh doanh ca d n

GVHD: H PHAN MINH C

28

Chuyn k ton qun tr

STT
1
2
3
4
5

Ch tiu

vt

Tng doanh thu

Tng chi ph sn xut
Li nhun trc thu (1-2)
Thu TNDN (3x25%)
Li nhun sau thu (3-4)

Tr
Tr
Tr
Tr
Tr

2002
2003
97.750,00 97.750,00
119.400,00 117.600,00
(21.650,00) (19.850,00)
(5.412,50) (4.962,50)
(16.237,50) (14.887,50)

Nm
2004
97.750,00
116.440,00
(18.690,00)
(4.672,50)
(14.017,50)

2005
97.750,00
115.664,00
(17.914,00)
(4.478,50)
(13.435,50)

2006
97.750,00
115.118,40
(17.368,40)
(4.342,10)
(13.026,30)

Bng ngn lu ca d n
vt: Triu ng
S
T

Nm
Khon mc

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

97.750,00
114.000,00

T
A
1
2
3

VN U T BAN U

NGN LU HOT NG

1
2
3
4
5

Tng Doanh thu

CPSX (tr li vay v KH)
Thu TNDN
Vn vay
Tr n gc v li vay
Ngn lu hot ng (1)

Thit b dy chuyn
Nh xng
Vn lu ng rng
Cng

(10.000,00)
(4.000,00)
(2.000,00)
(16.000,00)
97.750,00
114.000,00

97.750,00 97.750,00
114.000,00 114.000,00

97.750,00
114.000,00

(5.412,50)

(4.962,50) (4.672,50)

(4.478,50) (4.342,10)

(2.000,00)

(1.800,00) (1.600,00)

(1.400,00) (1.200,00)

(12.837,50)

(13.087,50) (13.177,50)

(13.171,50)

(13.107,90)

(13.171,50)

2.944,40
2.000,00
4.944,40
(8.163,50)

5.000,00
5.000,00

C NGN LU NM KT THC

1 Gi tr cn li rng
2 Thu hi vn lu ng rng
Cng
D

NGN LU RNG D N (2)

(11.000,00) (12.837,50)

(13.087,50) (13.177,50)

NPV = -11.000 + (-12.837,5)/(1+24,62%) +(-13.087,5)/(1+24,62%)^2

+ (-13.177,5)/(1+24,62%)^3 + (-13.171,5)/(1+24,62%)^4 + (-8.163,5)/(1+24,62%)^5
= - 44.714,46 triu ng
4. Gi tr k vng v lch chun ca NPV:
4.1 Gi tr k vng ca NPV:
E(NPV) = NPVi * pi
Trong : NPVi l NPV tng ng vi kh nng i
pi l xc sut kh nng i xy ra
i [ 1; n]
Gi tr k vng ca NPV = 129.901,23 * 25% + 21.418,61 * 50% + (-44.714,46) * 25%
GVHD: H PHAN MINH C

29

Chuyn k ton qun tr

= 32.006 triu ng
4.2 lch chun ca NPV:

NPV

= ((NPVi E(NPV))2 * pi
= (129.901,23 32.006)2*25% + (21.418,61 32.006)2*50% + (-44.714,46 32.006)2*25%
= 62.637,23 triu ng

GVHD: H PHAN MINH C

30