(YRC) - Mo Hinh Kinh Te Luong Dung de Tiep Can Va Phan Tich Tac Cua Chinh Sach Tien Te Den Gia CA o Viet Nam Trong Thoi Ky Doi Moi

B GIO DC V O TO TRNG I HC NGOI THNG ---------o0o---------
Tn cng trnh:
M HNH KINH T LNG DNG TIP CN V PHN TCH TC NG CA CHNH SCH TIN T N GI C VIT NAM TRONG THI K I MI
Nhm ngnh: XH 1a
Sinh vin thc hin: Nguyn Tin Long Gii tnh: Nam. Dn tc: Kinh Lp: Trung 1 Kha: 45 Khoa: KT&KDQT Gio vin hng dn: ThS. Phng Duy Quang
DANH MC T VIT TT
C c CO CPI CSTT D Fed GDP GDPd GNP i IMF L m M M1 M2 M3 MB MS MS NHNN
Tin mt T l tin mt/tin gi khng k hn Tiu dng Ch s gi tiu dng Chnh sch tin t Tin gi khng k hn Cc d tr lin bang Hoa K Tng sn phm quc ni Ch s gim pht GDP Tng sn phm quc dn Li sut danh ngha Qu tin t quc t Cc loi ti sn thanh khon H s nhn tin M2 Khi lng tin t Tin mt v tin gi khng k hn M1 v tin gi c k hn Tin theo ngha rng C s tin t Cung tin Cung tin Ngn hng Nh nc
http://svnckh.com.vn
NHTW NX ODA OLS
Ngn hng trung ng Xut khu rng Vin tr pht trin chnh thc Phng php c lng bnh phng nh nht Nghip v th trng m Mc gi ca r hng ha c chn Li sut thc t Tng d tr D tr vt mc D tr bt buc T l d tr di ra T l d tr bt buc Tin gi c k hn v tin gi tit kim Tin gi c k hn T l tin gi c k hn v tin gi tit kim/tin gi khng k hn ng la M Tin ng T chc thng mi th gii
OMO P r Rb Re Rr re rr T
TD t
USD VND WTO
DANH MC BNG BIU, HNH V
DANH MC BNG BIU

Bng 1.1 o lng khi lng tin t................................................................... 9 Bng 1.2 Tc ng ca cc cng c CSTT ti MS ............................................. 18 Bng 2.1 Tm tt nhng nghin cu thc nghim v m hnh c ch nh ... 40 Bng 2.2 Tm tt thng k cc bin s dng cho m hnh hi quy ................... 43 Bng 2.3 Kim nh tnh dng ca cc chui s M2, lnM2, CPI v lnCPI........ 43 DANH MC HNH V Hnh 1.1 iu tit v m bng CSTT ca NHTW .............................................. 20 Hnh 1.2 Tc ng ca CSTT ti gi c qua knh li sut ................................. 24 Hnh 2.1 Bng chng thc t v tc ng ca CSTT ti gi c.......................... 37 Hnh 2.2 Thm ht ngn sch Nh nc giai on 1986 1995........................ 45 Hnh 2.3 Tc tng cung tin M2 trong giai on 1986 1995 ...................... 46 Hnh 2.4 Tc tng trng kinh t ca Vit Nam giai on giai on 1980 2010 v d bo n nm 2015 ............................................................................ 48 Hnh 2.5 Tc tng cung tin giai on 1996 2004 ...................................... 49 Hnh 2.6 Bin ng t gi VND/USD giai on 2005 2010 so vi giai on 1996 2004 ......................................................................................................... 52 Hnh 2.7 u t trc tip nc ngoi vo Vit Nam giai on 2005 2010 so vi giai on 1996 2004 ......................................................................................... 53
Hnh 2.8 Thm ht ngn sch Vit Nam giai on 2005 2010 so vi giai on 1996 2004 ................................................................................................ 56 Hnh 2.9 Bin ng lm pht Vit Nam, cc nc Chu ang pht trin v th gii giai on 1980 2010 v d bo n nm 2015 ................................... 57
LI M U
1. Tnh cp thit ca ti Gi c mt n nh l nguyn nhn hng u dn n tnh trng bt n trn mi phng din ca i sng kinh t - x hi. Tuy nhin, chnh n buc cc quc gia phi tin hnh nhng ci ci su rng trn mi lnh vc t chnh tr n kinh t. S kin chnh thc khi xng chnh sch i Mi t i hi i biu ng Cng sn Vit Nam ln VI (12/1986) l mt bc ngot quan trng trong tin trnh pht trin ca Vit Nam, m kt qu ca n cn nh hng n ngy hm nay. Sau hn 20 nm k t khi cng cuc i Mi bt u, nn kinh t nc ta c nhng bc tin t ph. C th, Vit Nam khng nhng nhanh chng kim ch c lm pht phi m vo thi k u nhng nm i Mi, khc phc nhng nh hng tiu cc ca cuc khng hong ti chnh tin t Chu nm 1997 1998, m cn lun duy tr tc tng trng kinh t cao th hai trong khu vc Chu trong nhng nm gn y. Bn cnh , s kin Vit Nam gia nhp t chc thng mi th gii (WTO) l thnh cng to ln ca tin trnh hi nhp nn kinh t Vit Nam vo nn kinh t ton cu trong thi k i Mi. ng gp vo nhng thnh cng , khng th khng k n nhng ci cch trong vic iu tit nn kinh t bng chnh sch tin t (CSTT). Tuy nhin, cha y hai mi nm sau i Mi, nhng thnh qu t c trong vic qun
l gi c xut hin du hiu khng n nh. K t nm 2004, gi c bt u tng vt theo xu hng nm sau cao hn nm trc. Nhng s kin nh hng n din bin gi c ngy cng phc tp, nht l sau khi Vit Nam tr thnh thnh vin ca WTO. S m ca ca th trng vn v s tng vt v khi lng thng mi trn th trng hng ha lm cho cc bin s gy ra bin ng gi c v cng phc tp. iu ny dn n cc kin ngh chnh sch n nh gi c khng theo mt hng nht qun m thm ch cn lm cho nhng tranh lun i lp v din bin gi c Vit Nam tr ln gay gt hn bao gi ht. Trong bi cnh trn, vic xem xt mt cch tng quan v nguyn nhn gy ra bin ng gi c kha cnh l thuyt v tm kim mt bng chng thc nghim cho Vit Nam, l cn thit xut cc gii php nhm nng cao hiu lc ca CSTT trong thi gian sp ti. V vy, tc gi quyt nh thc hin ti: M HNH KINH T LNG DNG TIP CN V PHN TCH TC NG CA CHNH SCH TIN T N GI C VIT NAM TRONG THI K I MI. 2. Tng quan tnh hnh nghin cu Phn tch nh lng tc ng ca CSTT n gi c l ti c nhiu hc gi quan tm v nghin cu trong thp k va qua vi cc cng trnh nghin cu ca Khatiwada (1994), Michael T. Kiley (1998), Jeffrey Frankel (2006), Mark Bils, Peter J. Klenow v Benjamin A. Malin (2009). Tm hiu nhng nguyn nhn c bn cho thnh tu ca chnh sch i Mi, cc hc gi trong nc c nhiu cng trnh nghin cu phn tch tch tc ng ca CSTT n cc bin s kinh t v m ca Vit Nam nh cc cng trnh nghin cu ca T Kim Ngc (2003), L Anh Minh (2004), Phan Th Hng Hi (2005). Tuy nhin, hin nay vn cha c cng trnh nghin cu no cp mt cch c th tc ng ca
CSTT ti gi c trong tng giai on c th ca thi k i Mi ni ring v trong sut thi k ni chung. 3. i tng v mc tiu nghin cu i tng nghin cu ca cng trnh l tc ng ca CSTT ti gi c Vit Nam trong thi k i Mi. Mc tiu ca cng trnh l ch ra mc tc ng ca CSTT ti gi c trong sut thi k i Mi, cng nh mt s nhn t c th ngoi CSTT tc ng n gi c trong tng giai on c th ca thi k ny; ng thi xut cc gii php nhm nng cao hiu lc ca CSTT trong thi gian sp ti. 4. Phng php nghin cu Cng trnh c lp lun da trn quan im duy vt bin chng ca ch ngha Mc Lnin vi nguyn tc tn trng thc tin khch quan. Bn cnh , tc gi cng s dng phng php phn tch nh lng bng m hnh kinh t lng, phng php thng k, kt hp vi cc phng php phn tch, so snh, v tng hp trong sut qu trnh nghin cu. 5. Phm vi nghin cu Cng trnh nghin cu tc ng ca CSTT ti gi c ca Vit Nam trong giai on 1986 2010. 6. Kt qu nghin cu d kin Sau khi qu trnh nghin cu kt thc, cng trnh s ch r mc tc ng ca CSTT cng nh mt s nhn t khc ti gi c trong tng giai on ca thi k 1986 2010, tng kt thc tin cc tc ng trong tng bi cnh
kinh t - x hi ca t nc mi giai on c th v xut cc gii php nhm nng cao hiu lc ca CSTT nhm n nh gi c trong thi gian sp ti. 7. Kt cu ca ti Ngoi phn li m u v kt lun, kt cu ca cng trnh gm ba chng vi ni dung tng chng nh sau: Chng I: L lun chung v chnh sch tin t v tc ng ca chnh sch tin t ti gi c Chng II: Phn tch nh lng tc ng ca chnh sch tin t ti gi c Vit Nam trong thi k i Mi Chng III: Tng kt v xut cc gii php nng cao hiu lc ca chnh sch tin t
CHNG I: L LUN CHUNG V CHNH SCH TIN T V TC NG CA CHNH SCH TIN T TI GI C

1.1 L lun chung v chnh sch tin t 1.1.1 Tin t v h thng tin t 1.1.1.1 Ngun gc v khi nim tin t Tin t l mt phm tr kinh t khch quan, gn lin vi s ra i v pht trin ca kinh t hng ha. Cng vi s pht trin ca sn xut v trao i hng ha, cc hnh thi gi tr xut hin: t hnh thi gin n hay ngu nhin khi m mt hng ha ngu nhin phn nh gi tr mt hng ha khc; n hnh thi gi tr y hay m rng khi m nhiu hng ha u c kh nng tr thnh vt ngang gi th hin gi tr ca mt hng ha no ; ti hnh thi gi tr chung khi m mt hng ha ng vai tr l mt vt ngang gi chung th hin gi tr
ca tt c cc hng ha khc. Trong hnh thi gi tr chung, tt c cc hng ha u biu hin gi tr ca mnh gi tr ca mt hng ha c bit, ng vai tr vt ngang gi chung. Lc u, vt ngang gi chung cha c nh mt hng ha nht nh, nhng lc lng sn xut pht trin v phn cng lao ng x hi ngy cng su sc tt yu i hi vic thng nht mt vt ngang gi chung. Khi vai tr vt ngang gi chung c c nh mt hng ha duy nht, th hnh thi tin t ca gi tr ra i. Vt ngang gi chung duy nht ng vai tr tin t1. Nh vy, tin t xut hin l kt qu pht trin lu di ca trao i hng ha v ca cc hnh thi gi tr. Tin t l hng ha c bit dng lm vt ngang gi chung cho tt c cc hng ha; n l s th hin chung nht ca gi tr, biu hin tnh cht x hi ca lao ng v ca sn phm lao ng. Ngy nay, cc nh kinh t hc quan nim rng: Tin t l bt c th g c chp nhn chung i ly hng ho, dch v hoc thanh ton cc khon n2. 1.1.1.2 H thng tin t
Tin l nhng hnh thc ca nhng giy n IOU (I owe you) m ngi cm n l nhng ngi cho vay v cung cp cho nn kinh t, cho Nh nc mt dch v, sn phm. Ngi pht hnh ra tin l nhng ngi vay n - ngi tip nhn dch v hoc sn phm . iu c bn l, x hi v nn kinh t vn hnh cng vi vic trao i, chuyn dch s hu hng ha, cht xm lao ng thng qua phng tin trung gian l cc loi hnh giy n ny. S a dng ca
B Gio dc v o to (2006), Gio trnh kinh t chnh tr Mc Lnin, Nh xut bn chnh tr quc gia, H Ni, tr. 64 67. 2 Frederic S. Mishkin (2004), The Economics of Money, Banking and Financial Markets, 7e, Pearson Addison Wesley, tr. 44.
cc hnh thc giy n theo tin trnh pht trin ca nn kinh t, hnh thnh ln h thng tin t. cc nc pht trin, h thng tin t bao gm3: 1.1.1.2.1 Tin mt (Currency C) Tin giy, tin ca ngn hng trung ng (NHTW), tin ca Nh nc, tin php nh l nhng tn gi khc nhau ca C. C l mt khon n do Nh nc pht ra qua NHTW khi c hng ha, dch v hay ti sn mi pht sinh. Tng C trong lu thng c gi l c s tin t (monetary base - MB) hay tin mnh (high powered money) gm hai phn: tng C do nhn dn nm gi v tng C trong kho ca h thng ngn hng thng mi (NHTM) di hnh thc d tr. NHTW trc tip qun l MB, v MB l c s NHTW iu tit cung tin (MS). 1.1.1.2.2 Tin gi khng k hn (Demand Deposits - D) ti cc NHTM Tng D l tng s kh nng c th vit sc chi tiu hoc chuyn nhng s tin gi ti cc ti khon khng k hn ti cc NHTM. Do vy, D cn c gi l tin trong ti khon sc (checking accounts). D ch tng ng vi C v s lng khi n c rt ra. 1.1.1.2.3 Tin gi c k hn (Time Deposits - TD) TD l tin gi c thi hn xc nh trong cc NHTM. im khc nhau c bn ca loi tin gi ny vi D l TD c tr li sut cao, v thng thng TD ch c rt ra khi ti thi gian xc nh trc ca n. Nu ngi gi mun rt t xut, th h phi bo trc cho ngn hng trong mt s ngy nht nh no , v i khi phi chu pht. Hin nay, cc loi TD ph bin gm c:
L Vinh Danh (2005), Chnh sch tin t v iu tit v m ca Ngn hng trung ng, Nh xut bn Ti chnh, H Ni, tr. 25-30.
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Th nht, tin gi tit kim c thng bo (Statement savings deposits): L TD v hng thng ngi gi nhn c mt bo co chi tit v nhng s tin c rt ra hoc gi thm vo, li sut pht sinh, v tng tn khon cui k. Ngi gi c th rt hoc gi thm tin bng ng bu in. Th hai, tin gi tit kim c s (Passbook Savings Deposits): L TD v ngi gi phi mang s n ngn hng ngn hng vo s mi khi c nhng khon pht sinh gi tin vo hay rt tin ra. Th ba, giy chng nhn tin gi (Certificates of Deposits CDs) Th t, tri phiu tit kim (Savings Bond): L loi hnh gi tit kim bng cch mua tri phiu kho bc (cng tri) hoc tri phiu cng ty. 1.1.1.2.4 n v nh ca TD (Small denomination time deposits) B phn tin t ny bao gm nhng chng th TD nh chng th tit kim, chng th TD (savings certificates, small certificates of deposits) vi s lng tin gi nh. Cc loi chng th ny thng l nhng giy chng nhn c hai mt, trn ghi r ni pht hnh, ngy pht hnh, s tin gi, li sut, ngy hon vn v li, v ngy o hn. Loi tin gi ny khng c rt ra trc khi o hn. Nu c c php rt, th ngi gi thng phi chu tin pht rt nng. 1.1.1.2.5 Tri phiu ngn hn c mua li ca NHTM (Overnight repurchase agreements) Theo quy c quc t, loi tin ny c vit tt l REPO hoc RPs. Thng thng, cc NHTM bn tri phiu Nh nc hoc tri phiu ca ngn hng (tn phiu) cho nhn dn thu C trong hon cnh cp bch vi tha thun s mua li n vi gi cao hn trong khong thi gian rt ngn sau . Loi tin ny gip cc NHTM, cc tp on sn xut gii quyt nhu cu cp bch v C.
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1.1.1.2.6 la Euro (Euro Dollar) la Euro rt ph bin Nht Bn, Hoa K v Chu u. y l mt chng th c th c chuyn i d dng thnh la M (USD) khi cn thit v thng do cc NHTM pht hnh. la Euro l mt loi hnh tri phiu c hai mt c ghi r ngn hng pht hnh ra n, ni pht hnh, ngy pht hnh, s USD tng ng vi gi tr ca n, li sut, v ngy o hn. Loi tri phiu ny c mua bng USD, khi o hn, n cng c tr bng USD. Ngi s hu la Euro cng c th dng n mua, bn hoc thanh ton nh USD. 1.1.1.2.7 Tin gi trong cc qu tn dng ca th trng tin t (Monetary market fund deposits) Loi tin ny c gi ti cc qu tit kim, cc qu tn dng trn th trng tin t c li sut kh cao, ngn hn v s lng nh. Ngi gi c php vit sc thanh ton, v trao thng chng th cho i tc khi thanh ton. i tc c th dng chng th ny bn tip hoc em n qu i ly C. 1.1.1.2.8 Ti khon gi th trng tin t (Money market deposits accounts) So vi tin gi trong cc qu tn dng ca th trng tin t, loi tin ny c mc li sut tng ng, nhng c thi hn gi di hn. Ngi gi cng c quyn vit sc khi cn, vi s tin trn tm sc c gii hn. Chng th ca loi tin ny c th c dng mua, bn, v thanh ton trn th trng tin t. 1.1.1.2.9 Tin t theo ngha rng (broader definition of money: M3) Thnh phn tin t theo ngha rng (M3) bao gm cc loi tin thuc M2 trn vi mt s loi khc nh: Nhng n v ln ca TD (large denomination time deposits) Hoa K. Nhng chng th thuc nhm ny c gi tr t nht phi tng ng vi 10.000
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USD tr ln. im khc nhau c bn gia loi tin ny vi loi chng th n v nh ca TD l chng th n v nh khng c php chuyn thnh C khi cha o hn, trong khi loi tin ny c th chuyn c d dng m khng phi chu pht. Cc x nghip, tp on sn xut cc nc cng nghip ln, u s hu rt nhiu loi tin ny, bi v h c th dng n thanh ton tin trong sn xut, mua bn trn th trng tin t, hoc ct gi n hng li sut. Trn th trng tin t, loi tin ny c tn l JUMPO CDs (Jumpo certificates of deposits). Cc loi tri phiu (hay tn phiu) c mua li ca NHTM, ngn hng tit kim, qu tit kim. Loi tin ny c tn gi l Terms RPs (Terms of repurchase agreement at commercial banks, savings banks, saving and loan associations) im khc nhau c bn ca n vi RPs l thi hn di hn, gi tr tin gi trn b mt ca n kh ln, li sut cao. la Euro ln. 1.1.1.2.10 Cc loi ti sn thanh khon (Liquidity assets L) Chng th ti sn thanh khon cng l phiu n (tri phiu) nh cc loi tin trn. Chng th ca cc loi ti sn thanh khon ny l mt loi hnh ca loi tin trn, v n c li sut, c th dng thanh ton, mua, bn, trao i, d tr ly li, v c th chuyn thnh C khi cn. L bao gm M3 v mt s ti sn khc nh: tri phiu kho bc, tri phiu th, v thng phiu. Tt c loi tin trn hp thnh h thng tin t trong nn kinh t (Bng 1.1). Khi lng tin t pht trin n M1, M2, M3 hay L l ty thuc vo s pht trin ca nn kinh t quc gia. c im ni bt nht ca cc loi tin l cng i dn v pha cui bng, tin va lm phng tin trao i, thanh ton nh C, va l ti sn sinh li m vic gi n c ngha nh mt hot ng u t.
Bng 1.1 o lng khi lng http://svnckh.com.vn tin t

M0 = M1 =
C M0
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1.1.2 L lun chung v chnh sch tin t 1.1.2.1 Khi nim Theo ngn hng trung ng (NHTW) Canada: CSTT l vic thc thi cc bin php nh hng ti MS nhm tc ng ti li sut, iu kin tn dng v t gi hi oi ca Canada. Mc tiu cui cng ca CSTT l tc ng ti tng sn phm quc ni (GDP), vic lm, lm pht v tng trng trong nn kinh t. Cn theo Cc d tr lin bang Hoa K (Fed), CSTT l nhng quyt nh ca NHTW nhm tc ng n tnh thanh khon, chi ph ca tin t v tn dng nhm thc y vic thc hin cc mc tiu kinh t quc gia4. Theo Lut Ngn hng Nh nc (NHNN) Vit Nam nm 2010, CSTT quc gia l cc quyt nh v tin t tm quc gia ca c quan Nh nc c thm quyn, bao gm quyt nh mc tiu n nh gi tr ng tin biu hin bng ch tiu lm pht, quyt nh s dng cc cng c v bin php thc hin mc tiu ra5. Nh vy t cc khi nim trn c th kt lun, CSTT l chnh sch qun l v m ca Nh nc v tin t, tn dng thng qua cc cng c ca NHTW, chi phi, iu tit qu trnh cung ng v lu thng tin t nhm t cc mc tiu n nh cc ch s kinh t v m. C hai loi CSTT l CSTT m rng (expansionary monetary policy) v CSTT tht cht (tightened monetary policy). Thc thi CSTT m rng ngha l NHTW tng thm lng tin cung ng vo nn kinh t. Ngc li, CSTT tht cht c thc hin khi NHTW thu hp lng tin
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Jim Saxton, Why currency crises happpen?, Joint Economic Committee of United States Congress. Truy cp ngy 20 thng 05 nm 2010, t htttp://www.house.gov/jec. 5 Khon 1, iu 3, Lut NHNN Vit Nam 2010.
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cung ng. V cung tin (MS) l i din cho nhng thay i ca CSTT, nn trong cng trnh ny, MS l bin s i din cho CSTT trong cc phn tch nh lng. 1.1.2.2 Cc tc nhn tham gia thc thi CSTT
1.1.2.2.1 Ngn hng trung ng NHTW l mt nh ch c thit lp gim st h thng ngn hng v iu tit lng tin t cung ng. NHTW l ngn hng ca cc ngn hng, l ngn hng duy nht c pht hnh tin v l ngn hng ca Chnh ph thc hin chc nng qun l Nh nc v hot ng lu thng tin t, tn dng, ngn hng6. NHTW l ngn hng c quyn pht hnh tin ca Chnh ph, v ng tin c hiu lc php nh s dng trong ton quc nh phng tin trao i. Vic NHTW trc tip qun l cung ng C c tc ng rt mnh n MS. 1.1.2.2.2 NHTM v cc trung gian ti chnh phi ngn hng NHTM l t chc kinh doanh tin t theo hng thu ht cc ngun vn nhn ri t cc c nhn v t chc trong nn kinh t, gi li mt phn lm d tr v cho vay s cn li. NHTM l t chc trung gian ti chnh ch yu tham gia vo qu trnh thc thi CSTT, v vy trong cng trnh nghin cu ny, tc gi tp trung vo phn tch vai tr ca NHTM. Vai tr tham gia vo vic thc thi CSTT ca cc trung gian ti chnh phi ngn hng c hot ng nhn tin gi v cho vay khc s hon ton tng t nh cc NHTM. NHTM l nh ch ti chnh c kh nng to ra tin gi (deposit creation). iu ny th hin trn ti khon tin gi thanh ton ca khch hng ti NHTM. T khon d tr ban u, thng qua hnh vi cho vay bng chuyn khon, h thng NHTM c kh nng to ra s tin gi
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N. Gregory Mankiw (2009), Brief Principles of Macroeconomics, 5e, South Western Cengage Learning, Inc, Mason, Ohio, USA, tr. 232.
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gp nhiu ln s d tr ban u. Xem xt qut trnh to tin ca h thng NHTM vi hai gi thit sau7: Th nht, cc NHTM cho vay bng chuyn khon, khng cho vay bng C v khch hng khng c nhu cu rt C, tin s dng trong giao dch ch l tin gi. Th hai, h thng NHTM cho vay ht, ch gi li d tr theo quy nh ca NHTW, khng c d tr vt mc. Vi hai gi thit nu trn, gi s mt khch hng em 100.000VND gi vo ti khon tin gi thanh ton ca ngn hng A, v ngn hng ny quyt nh cho vay nhm thu li nhun. Tuy nhin, m bo mt phn kh nng thanh ton cng nh do phi chu s qun l ca NHTW, ngn hng A khng th cho vay ht s tin nhn c m cn phi li mt lng d tr bt buc theo t l m NHTW quy nh. Gi s t l ny l 10%, th ngn hng A c th cho vay ti a 90% s tin gi. Gi s, s tin cho vay ra (90.000VND) s c ngi i vay s dng thanh ton tin mua hng cho bn hng ca h c ti khon ti ngn hng B. Khi , hnh thnh mt khon tin gi mi ngn hng B. Ngn hng B cng phi d tr theo quy nh 10% (9.000VND), phn cn li (81.000VND) c s dng cho vay v s tin li hnh thnh nn khon tin gi mi ngn hng D. Lp lun tng t, nu tt c cc NHTM u em cho vay tt c cc khon tin gi nhn c, sau khi d tr theo ng quy nh, th cc khon tin gi s tip tc c to ra. Qu trnh to tin gi s din ra cho n khi tng s tin d tr bt buc ca h thng NHTM ng bng s tin gi u tin (100.000VND). Khi , tng s tin gi c to ra s l:
Frederic S. Mishkin (2004), The Economics of Money, Banking and Financial Markets, 7e, Pearson Addison Wesley, tr. 365-370.
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100.000 (=R1) + 90.000[=R(1- rd)] + 81.000[=R(1- rd)2] + (1.1) (R: s d tr tng thm ban u; rd: t l d tr bt buc do NHTW quy nh) (1.1) D = R[1 + (1- rr) + (1- rr)2 + (1- rr)3 +] D = R hay D = R ( : h s m rng tin gi)
Kt qu l, tng s tin gi c to ra l 1.000.000VND, gp 10 ln s tin gi ban u. V th, hot ng to tin ca NHTM nh hng rt ln n lng cung tin trong nn kinh t. 1.1.2.2.3 Ngi gi tin v ngi vay tin Ngi gi tin l cc c nhn v t chc gi tin v nm gi tin gi cc nh ch ti chnh c php nhn tin gi. Ngi gi tin quyt nh t l tin mt v tin gi. Cn ngi vay tin l cc c nhn v t chc vay tin t cc nh ch ti chnh c php nhn tin gi, hoc pht hnh tri phiu m cc nh ch c php nhn tin gi mua. Do , c ngi gi tin v ngi vay tin u c vai tr quan trng trong qu trnh to tin ca h thng NHTM. 1.1.2.3 Vai tr ca cc tc nhn thc thi CSTT ti qu trnh cung tin MS l i din cho nhng thay i v CSTT, nn v phng din tng qut, MS l kt qu ca MB, t l d tr, v t l TD. Tc ng ca ba nhn t trn ti MS c xem xt trn c s xy dng h s nhn tin M2. MB tng ng vi C trong lu thng v tng d tr Rb (bao gm d tr bt buc Rr v d tr vt mc Re). MB = Rb + C = Rr + Re + C (1.2)
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Gi s, mc nm gi C ca nhn dn v mc nm gi d tr di ra ca cc ngn hng Re t l thun vi mc D ti cc ngn hng. Ni cch khc, gi nh t l gia cc i lng ny v D l mt hng s ti trng thi cn bng. Nu k hiu c l t l C trong nhn dn, re l t l d tr di ra ca cc ngn hng, v rr l t l d tr bt buc, cng thc (1.2) c th c vit li di dng nh sau: MB = rr D + re D + c D MB = (rr + re + c) D hay D= MB8 (1.3)
Mt khc, khi lng tin M2 c nh ngha l: M2 = C + D + T (T : TD v tin gi tit kim) (1.4)
Tip tc gi nh rng T t l thun vi D. Khi , T c th c a vo nh l mt hm tng ca tng cc khon D c dng: T=tD (t:t l T/D do ngi gi tin quyt nh v khng i)
Khi , cng thc (1.4) c vit li nh sau: M2 = c D + t D + D M2 = (1 + c + t) D Thay (1.4) vo (1.5) ta c: M2 = MB (1.5)
19
m=
(1.6) l h s nhn tin M2
Nhng ng gp ca cc thnh phn: t l C, t l T/D, rr v re trong m c xem xt trong cc o hm ring ca m theo cc thnh phn ca n:
; ;
nhn gi tr m v trn thc t , do , s gia tng trong c c
ngha l ngi gi tin chuyn mt phn D thnh C, t h thp c s d tr ca cc NHTM m rng tn dng v to tin gi. nhn gi tr dng,
s gia tng ca t c ngha l D c chuyn thnh T nhiu hn. Do , cc NHTM s m rng tn dng, tng cng cho vay, t lm tng MS. v
nhn gi tr m, v vic gia tng t l d tr s lm gim quy m m rng tin gi nhiu ln, t lm gim MS. 1.1.2.4 Cc cng c ca CSTT
Cng c CSTT l nhng phng tin, cch thc m cc c quan thc hin CSTT s dng nhm tc ng n MS t c cc mc tiu ca CSTT ni ring v mc tiu pht trin kinh t ni chung. Hin nay, nhng cng c CSTT thng c NHTW s dng bao gm hai nhm. Th nht, cng c iu chnh trc tip. Nhm cng c ny bt ngun t quyn lc qun l ca Nh nc, can thip trc tip vo hot ng kinh doanh tin t ca cc t chc tn dng, t ,
20
tc ng trc tip MS. Cc cng c iu chnh trc tip thng c s dng bao gm: hn mc tn dng, khung li sut, bin dao ng ca t gi mua bn ngoi t, chnh sch qun l ngoi hi. Th hai, cng c iu chnh gin tip. Nhm cng c ny khng mang tnh cht bt buc m c tnh cht nh hng hot ng ca cc t chc tn dng trn th trng tin t, t , tc ng vo MS. Cc cng c iu chnh gin tip thng c cc NHTW s dng l nghip v th trng m (OMO), chnh sch ti chit khu, v d tr bt buc. Ngy nay, NHTW ca cc quc gia trn th gii thng s dng cc cng c iu chnh gin tip thc thi CSTT v cc bin php ny t cng nhc hn cc cng c iu chnh trc tip. Do , cc NHTW c th iu tit th trng tin t mt cch hp l, trch cho th trng cc c sc bt ng. Di y l phn tch chi tit v cc cng c iu chnh gin tip ca CSTT. nh hng ca cc cng c ny n MS c phn nh trong Bng 1.2. 1.1.2.4.1 Nghip v th trng m (Open market operations OMO) Theo Fed, OMO l vic mua bn cc loi chng khon trn th trng ti chnh c thc hin bi Fed, v mt OMO xy ra khi NHTW thay i MB bng vic mua bn cc loi chng khon ti chnh trn th trng m 9. Theo NHNN Vit Nam, OMO l nghip v mua, bn giy t c gi gia mt bn l NHNN vi bn kia l cc t chc tn dng, trong NHNN ng vai tr l ngi iu hnh hot ng th trng. OMO l mt trong cc cng c c NHNN s dng thc thi CSTT quc gia10. T cc nh ngha trn, ta c th
9
Frederic S. Mishkin (2004), The Economics of Money, Banking and Financial Markets, 7e, Pearson Addison Wesley, tr. 359. 10 Ngn hng Nh nc Vit Nam (2010), OMO. Truy cp ngy 25 thng 05 nm 2010, t http://www.sbv.gov.vn/wps/portal/!ut/p/c5/hY3LCsIwAAS_SLKN6esYmzYPi7VGtPYiOYgEbOtB_H5b8KCCu nschiEtGd-7uz-7mx96dyENaaNjJrlicQlUSqTQiVmW22A931k28sMLl6bOoKWxCVsEAMI_9n7q_fYnji_jPDfC0Yhttp://svnckh.com.vn
21
kt lun: OMO l hot ng mua bn chng khon ca NHTW trn th trng tin t thay i MB, t tc ng ti lng tin cung ng v li sut trn th trng. Cc chng khon c NHTW s dng thng l cc giy t c gi c tnh thanh khon cao, v ri ro thp nh cc tn phiu kho bc. Hin nay, c hai loi OMO: OMO nng ng (dynamic open market operations) v OMO th ng (defensive open market operations). OMO nng ng c thc hin nhm thay i MB v vic mc tiu thc hin OMO th ng l nhm phn ng vi nhng thay i (thng l khng c li) ca c cu tin t trong lu thng11. NHTW thc hin OMO s tc ng n MB, t tc ng n MS, theo c ch sau. Trong bng tng kt ti sn ca NHTW, ti sn c ch yu l cc giy t c gi ca Chnh ph, ti sn n ch yu l tin giy v tin gi d tr ca cc NHTM. V vy, khi NHTW bn (hoc mua) cc chng khon, n s lm gim (hoc tng) d tr ca cc NHTM, t nh hng n kh nng to tin gi thng qua cung ng tn dng ca h thng NHTM. C th, khi NHTW pht hnh (bn) cc chng khon, n s rt tin v theo c ch sau: ti khon vng lai ca ngi mua cc chng khon c cc NHTM ghi N v NHTW s ghi gim ti khon tin gi d tr ca cc NHTM 12. V ti khon tin gi d tr ca cc NHTM ti NHTW gim xung, nn MB gim lm gim MS mt lng bng gi tr ca s chng khon bn ra nhn vi m. Kt qu s ngc li khi NHTW mua cc chng khon. 1.1.2.4.2 Chnh sch ti chit khu (Discount Policy)
OQRL4yJkkAWNoatNXlsuKM0jslJDyLXroHXM_4A9RYcIQ!!/dl3/d3/L2dJQSEvUUt3QS9ZQnZ3LzZfMEQ0 OTdGNTQwR0YyNzBJT1JFUVNBRDJTMTY!/ 11 Frederic S. Mishkin (2004), The Economics of Money, Banking and Financial Markets, 7e, Pearson Addison Wesley, tr. 398. 12 Frederic S. Mishkin (2004), The Economics of Money, Banking and Financial Markets, 7e, Pearson Addison Wesley, tr. 358-364.
22
Chnh sch ti chit khu l cng c ca NHTW trong vic thc thi CSTT bng cch cho cc NHTM vay p ng nhu cu C ngn hn hoc bt thng. Li sut m NHTW s dng cho cc khon vay ny l li sut ti chit khu. Khi thc hin nghip v, cc NHTM c lc thiu ht tm thi C gii quyt cc yu cu v thanh ton hoc b p lng Rr. Khi , NHTM phi tm n NHTW vay tin, thng di dng chit khu li cc chng khon c gi (ti chit khu). Chnh sch ti chit khu lm nh hng n lng MS bng nhng khon cho vay chit khu ca s chit khu (discount window)13. C ch tc ng ca s chit khu ti MS thng qua vic iu chnh li sut ti chit khu. C th, li sut cho vay ti chit khu c xem l gi c ca khon vay chit khu t NHTW. Do , NHTW tng (hoc gim) li sut ti chit khu lm gi c cc khon vay tng ln (hoc gim xung), nhm hn ch (hoc gip ) cc NHTM vay thc hin hot ng tn dng. Cc NHTM s tng (hoc gim) li sut tng ng, t thu hp (hoc m rng) tn dng, dn n gim (hoc tng) lng tin cung ng. 1.1.2.4.3 D tr bt buc (Reserve Requirements Rr) Rr l mt s tin m cc NHTM bt buc phi c, c tnh theo phn trm tng s d tin gi ti mt thi im nht nh 14. Rr cc nc khc nhau, ti mi thi im khc nhau, c th khc nhau. Qu Rr c cc NHTM lp ti NHTW, khng c hng li sut v c quy nh c th trong tng thi k. Vic thc hin Rr l mt chnh sch nhm m bo kh nng thanh ton cho cc NHTM, v cng l mt chnh sch c th s dng lm thay i c cu C trong
13
Frederic S. Mishkin (2004), The Economics of Money, Banking and Financial Markets, 7e, Pearson Addison Wesley, tr. 400-401. 14 Fed (2010), Reserve Requirements. Truy cp ngy 26 thng 06 t http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/reservereq.htm
23
lu thng. Rr tc ng n MS theo c ch: rr tng lm m gim xung, t lm MS gim; v ngc li.
Bng 1.2. Tc ng ca cc cng c CSTT ti MS

Cng c CSTT
Nghip v th trng m
Thc hin
Bn chng khon ()
MS
L do
MB
Chnh sch ti chit khu
Li sut ti chit khu
MB
D tr bt buc
T l d tr bt buc
Ch : Ch c tc ng tng() c ch ra, tc ng gim s lm MS phn ng theo chiu ngc li. Ngun: Frederic S. Mishkin (2004), The Economics of Money, Banking and Financial Markets, 7e, Pearson Addison
Wesley, tr. 383.
1.1.2.5
Mc tiu v phng thc iu tit v m bng CSTT
1.1.2.5.1 Mc tiu ca CSTT a. Mc tiu cui cng (Goals) NHTW ca cc quc gia trn th gii u thng nht rng, mc tiu cui cng ca CSTT bao gm: (1) Tng vic lm, (2) Tng trng kinh t, (3) n nh P, (4) n nh li sut, (5) n nh th trng ti chnh, (6) n nh th trng ngoi hi15. Cc mc tiu trn khng phi lc no cng nht tr v h tr
15
Frederic S. Mishkin (2004), The Economics of Money, Banking and Financial Markets, 7e, Pearson Addison Wesley, tr. 411.
24
ln nhau khi mt CSTT c thc hin. Trong mt s trng hp, mt s mc tiu mu thun nhau khin cho vic theo ui mc tiu ny i hi phi hi sinh mc tiu kia. Mu thun gia mc tiu n nh gi c v mc tiu gim t l tht nghip trong ngn hn l mt v d in hnh. Tuy nhin, NHTW ca hu ht cc quc gia trn th gii u tha nhn n nh gi c l mc tiu c bn v l mc tiu di hn ca CSTT16. b. Mc tiu trung gian (Intermediate Targets) Mc tiu trung gian l ch tiu c NHTW la chn t c mc tiu cui cng ca CSTT. Do tr ca chnh sch (thng thng hn mt nm), nn NHTW ch c th thy c s thay i trong cc mc tiu trong khong thi gian hn mt nm k t khi CSTT c thc hin. Do , s qu mun cho NHTW pht hin cc sai lm trong chnh sch, m cc sai lm ny ang lm CSTT xa ri mc tiu cui cng.V vy, nu ch i s phn hi t cc mc tiu cui cng, cc NHTW s khng kp sa cha cc sai lm trong CSTT m mnh thc hin. Nhm khc phc hn ch ny, NHTW ca tt c cc nc thng xc nh cc mc tiu trung gian cn t c trc khi t c mc tiu cui cng. Cc ch tiu c s dng lm mc tiu trung gian l khi lng tin cung ng (M1, M2 hoc M3) hoc li sut th trng (ngn hoc di hn)17. c. Mc tiu hot ng (Instrument/Operating Targets) Mc tiu hot ng l nhng mc ch sch lc m NHTW nhm t ti trong ngn hn. l nhng bin tin t m NHTW c th tc ng hay kim sot mt cch trc tip bng cc cng c CSTT, nhm thay i mc tiu trung
16
Frederic S. Mishkin (2004), The Economics of Money, Banking and Financial Markets, 7e, Pearson Addison Wesley, tr. 412. 17 Frederic S. Mishkin (2004), The Economics of Money, Banking and Financial Markets, 7e, Pearson Addison Wesley, tr. 414-415.
25
gian. T , mc tiu ny s tc ng n mc tiu cui cng ca CSTT. Mc tiu hot ng c vi tr quan trng i vi vic iu hnh CSTT, y l im khi u trong c ch truyn ti ca CSTT. Cc ch tiu ny bao gm: tng d tr ca h thng NHTM, li sut ngn hn trn th trng lin ngn hng, hoc li sut tn phiu18. S phn ng nhanh chng v chnh xc ca cc mc tiu hot ng gip cho NHTW c th kim tra tnh ng n ca cc quyt nh trong iu hnh CSTT hng ngy, t c th t c mc tiu trung gian v mc tiu cui cng trong khong thi gian sau . 1.1.2.5.2 Phng thc iu tit v m bng CSTT
HNH 1.1 iu tit v m bng CSTT ca NHTW

Cng c CSTT OMO Mc tiu hot ng Mc tiu trung gian Tng khi lng tin (M1, M2, M3) Li sut ngn hn trn th trng lin ngn hng Mc tiu cui cng Tng trng kinh t Gim tht nghip n nh ti chnh n nh gi c.
Chnh sch ti chit khu
Tng d tr
D tr bt buc
Li sut lin ngn hng
Hot ng iu tit
Ngun: Frederic S. Mishkin (2004), The Economics of Money, Banking and Financial Markets, 7e, Pearson Addison Wesley, tr. 416.
18
26
Sau khi xc nh c cc mc tiu cui cng, cc NHTW s la chn cc mc tiu trung gian. Vic la chn bin s no lm mc tiu trung gian khng ch gn lin vi nhng din bin kinh t, tin t, mc pht trin ca th trng ti chnh m cn gn lin vi mc tiu v gii php m bo s n nh v m. Nh vy,vic la chn mc tiu trung gian thch hp i hi phi c s phn tch k lng cc din bin kinh t, tin t hin i v d bo trong tng lai, v xc nh r nh hng pht trin kinh t trong ngn hn cng nh trong di hn. Sau khi la chn c cc mc tiu trung gian, NHTW bt u s dng cc cng c ca CSTT tc ng n cc mc tiu hot ng. Cc sai lm trong trong vic iu hnh CSTT c th c sa cha mt cch kp thi, khi NHTW nhn thy tc ng ca mc tiu hot ng lm cc mc tiu trung gian i chch hng ti mc tiu cui cng ca CSTT. 1.2 Tc ng ca CSTT ti gi c Theo l thuyt, mc gi chung (P) c tnh bng gi tr bnh qun gia quyn ca gi hng ha v dch v trong nn kinh t. Khi gi tr P c xc nh nh sau:
1.2.1 Cc phng php tnh gi
V vic xc nh gi theo mi loi hng ha l mt cng vic kh khn, do , mc gi chung ca nn kinh t thng c o lng da vo hai ch s. l ch s gi tiu dng (Consumer Price Index CPI) v ch s gim pht tng sn phm quc ni (Gross Domestic Product deflator GDPd).
27
1.2.1.1 Phng php xc nh da trn CPI CPI o lng mc gi chung ca hng ha v dch v c mua bi mt ngi tiu dng in hnh19. xc nh CPI, ngi ta chn ra mt gi hng ha v dch v tiu biu cho c cu tiu dng ca cc h gia nh trong mt giai on nht nh. ng thi, mc tiu dng ca cc h gia nh vi tng loi hng ha v dch v trong "gi hng ha, mc gi ca chng cng c xc nh c th ti mi thi im khc nhau. Vic la chn nm gc hay nm c s (base year) l mt cn c quan trng xc nh CPI cho cc nm ang c tnh. Phng php tnh CPI nh sau:
Trong :
CPI =
: Gi kz gc hng i : Gi kz nghin cu hng i : Lng kz gc hng i
hoc:
Trong : : Ch s gi ca tng loi hng, nhm hng trong gi : T trng mc tiu dng tng loi hng, nhm hng trong gi, phn nh c cu tiu dng ca x hi
19
28
1.2.1.2 Phng php xc nh da trn GDPd GDPd phn nh mc gi chung ca tt c cc hng ha v dch v c sn xut trong nc vo mt thi gian nht nh. GDP d c xc nh bng t s gia GDP danh ngha v GDP thc t. GDP danh ngha o lng sn lng theo mc gi hin ti, trong khi , GDP thc t o lng sn lng theo gi k gc. Do , GDPd cho bit s thay i gi ca tt c cc hng ha v dch v cui cng trong nn kinh t so vi gi ca thi k c chn lm gc20:
Trong :
: Gi kz nghin cu hng i : Gi kz gc hng i : Lng kz nghin cu hng i
GDPd v CPI u c th c s dng phn nh s thay i gi c trong nn kinh t. Tuy nhin, s bin ng ca mc gi chung nh hng trc tip ti lng hng ha v dch v m ngi dn mua c vi mt mc thu nhp danh ngha nht nh, nn hu ht cc nc trn th gii s dng CPI o lng mc gi chung ca nn kinh t. Trong phm vi cng trnh nghin cu ny, CPI l ch s i din cho mc gi chung trong cc phn tch nh lng. 1.2.2 C ch truyn ti ca CSTT ti gi c 1.2.2.1 Tc ng ca CSTT ti gi c qua knh li sut Gi nh vi mt mc gi P cho trc v iu chnh chm theo thi gian, MS tng lm li sut danh ngha (i) ngn hn gim (MS1 dch chuyn thnh MS2) (Hnh 1.2a). Trong iu kin P chm thay i, li sut thc t r gim. Li sut
20
29
thc t ngn hn thp hn dn n s suy gim trong li sut thc t di hn21. V r thp hn s dn ti s gia tng trong u t I vo kinh doanh, nh , hng tn kho, qua to ra s gia tng trong tng sn lng Y (Hnh 1.2b). Theo Keynes, trong nn kinh t m, c s tham gia ca chnh ph, I tng lm tng cu AD tng (AD = CO + I + G + NX). Khi , ng AD1 dch chuyn thnh ng AD2 lm Y tng mt lng Y bng v
lm mc gi P1 tng ln thnh P1 trong ngn hn (Trong , CO: tiu dng, I: u t, G: chi tiu chnh ph, NX: xut khu rng, MPC: xu hng tiu dng cn bin, t: thu sut, MPM: xu hng nhp khu cn bin)22.
21
Frederic S. Mishkin (2004), The Economics of Money, Banking and Financial Markets, 7e, Pearson Addison Wesley, tr. 129. 22 Frederic S. Mishkin (2004), The Economics of Money, Banking and Financial Markets, 7e, Pearson Addison Wesley, tr. 167.
30
Li sut ,i
MS1
MS2
Mc gi chung, P
AS1 Y
iA
A
P1
1 1 AD2 AD1
P1 iA
Md
M1
(1.2 a)
M2
Khi lng tin, M
Y1
Y1
(1.2 b)
Tng sn lng, Y
HNH 1.2 Tc ng ca CSTT ti gi c qua knh li sut

Ngun: Frederic S. Mishkin (2004), The Economics of Money, Banking and Financial Markets, 7e, Pearson Addison Wesley, tr. 562. 1.2.2.2 Tc ng ca CSTT ti gi c qua cc knh gi ti sn khc 1.2.2.2.1 Tc ng ca CSTT ti gi c qua knh t gi hi oi Knh truyn dn ny bao gm c c ch nh hng ca li sut. Khi MS tng, li sut ca ng ni t gim so vi ngoi t. Do , gi tr tin gi ni t thp hn gi tr tin gi ngoi t. V th, ng ni t c xu hng gim gi so vi ng ngoi t, v t gi hi oi e tng (e y c hiu l mt ng ngoi t bng bao nhiu ng ni t). ng ni t gim gi s kch thch xut khu, do NX tng. C ch tc ng ca NX ti P tng t nh tc ng ca I ti P (Hnh 1.2b): MS r e NX Y P23. 1.2.2.2.2 Tc ng ca CSTT ti gi c qua knh gi c phiu
23
31
L thuyt q-Tobin gii thch c ch tc ng ca CSTT thng qua nh hng ca n n gi c phiu cng ty, t dn n nhu cu u t. Ch s q l t s gia gi tr th trng ca cc doanh nghip v chi ph thay th t bn. Nu q cao, gi tr th trng ca cc doanh nghip s cao hn chi ph thay th t bn. Khi , thit b v my mc r tng i so vi gi tr th trng ca doanh nghip. Do , cc doanh nghip c th pht hnh c phiu v bn vi gi cao so vi chi ph ca thit b v my mc m h mua, nn I tng. Khi NHTW thc hin CSTT m rng, tm l cm thy c nhiu tin hn so vi trc kia thc y nhn dn chi tiu nhiu hn. Th trng chng khon l mt trong nhng a im m nhn dn thc hin vic ny. Do cu I v c phiu tng, nn gi c phiu (Ps) tng. Ch s q s cao hn v chi tiu cho I s tng ln. I tng lm P tng (Hnh 1.2b). C ch tc ng ca CSTT ti gi c thng qua gi c phiu c m t bng s sau y: MS Ps q I Y P24. 1.2.2.2.3 Tc ng ca CSTT ti gi c qua knh hiu ng ca ci Gi thuyt v vng i v tiu dng ch ra rng ngi tiu dng san bng tiu dng theo thi gian. Do , ngun lc c i (lifetime resources) ca ngi tiu dng l nhn t quyt nh chi tiu cho tiu dng. Mt trong cc thnh phn trong ngun lc c i ca ngi tiu dng l c phiu ph thng. Khi Ps tng, gi tr ca ci ti chnh tng, qua lm tng ngun lc c i ca ngi tiu dng v CO tng. CO tng lm P tng tng t nh c ch tc ng ca I ti P (Hnh 1.2b). Kt hp vi m hnh q-Tobin, tc ng ca CSTT ti P thng qua hiu ng ca ci nh sau: MS Ps Ca ci C Y P25. 1.2.2.3 Tc ng ca CSTT ti gi c qua knh tn dng
24
32
khc phc tnh trng thng tin bt cn xng mt bn trong giao dch khng c thng tin cn thit v i tc a ra cc quyt nh ng n nhng ngi i vay phi tm n ngn hng. Cch l gii ny c gi l quan im tn dng (Credit view). N a ra hai knh tc ng tin t pht sinh t vn thng tin bt cn xng trn th trng tn dng: knh truyn ti qua vic cho vay ca ngn hng (knh tn dng ngn hng Bank Lending Channel) v knh truyn ti qua nh hng ti bng tng kt ti sn ca cc doanh nghip v h gia nh (knh bng tng kt ti sn Balance Sheet Channel). 1.2.2.3.1 Tc ng ca CSTT ti gi c qua knh tn dng ngn hng Thc t chng minh mt s ngi i vay khng th tip cn c vi ngun vn tn dng tr phi h vay n t ngn hng. Vi gi nh khng c s thay th hon ho tin gi ca cc ngn hng l bng cc ngun vn khc, khi NHTW thc hin CSTT m rng, kh nng cho vay ca ngn hng cng tng ln. V nhiu ngi i vay ph thuc vo tin vay ca ngn hng cho hot ng ti chnh, nn s gia tng ny lm cho I (v c th CO) tng ln. I tng lm P tng (Hnh 1.2b). Di dng s , CSTT tc ng ti gi c qua knh tn dng nh sau: MS Tin gi ngn hng Cho vay ngn hng I Y P26. 1.2.2.3.2 Tc ng ca CSTT ti gi c qua knh bng tng kt ti sn Gi tr rng ca mt doanh nghip thp lm gim quy m cho vay, t gim I v hai l do. Th nht, gi tr rng ca doanh nghip thp c ngha l doanh nghip c t ti sn th chp cho khon vay ca h, do , cc ngn hng hn ch cho cc doanh nghip ny vay vn. Th hai, gi tr rng ca doanh nghip thp cng ng ngha vi vic cc doanh nghip ny rt d s dng vn
26
33
vay ca ngn hng vo cc d n u t mo him. V vic chp nhn cc d n u t c mc ri ro cao hn lm cho kh nng khng th hon vn ngn hng cao hn, nn cc ngn hng hn ch cho cc doanh nghip ny tip cn ngun vn tn dng ca mnh. CSTT m rng lm nh hng ti bng tng kt ti sn, t nh hng ti gi c, theo cc cch di y27. a. Tc ng ca CSTT ti gi c qua gi tr rng ca doanh nghip Theo m hnh q-Tobin, CSTT m rng lm Ps tng, qua lm gia tng gi tr rng ca doanh nghip. Doanh nghip d dng c vay vn ngn hng hn, t c th m rng I. C ch tc ng ca I ti P nh c ch ra trong Hnh 1.2b. Do , tc ng ca CSTT ti P qua knh bng tng kt ti sn, c th l gi tr rng ca doanh nghip, c m t qua s sau y: MS Ri ro thng tin bt cn xng Cho vay ngn hng I Y P. b. Tc ng ca CSTT ti gi c qua knh dng tin (Cash Flow Channel) Knh bng tng kt ti sn tc ng tc ng ti gi c cn thng qua nh hng ca n i vi dng tin mc chnh lch gia cc khon thu v chi C. CSTT m rng lm gim li sut danh ngha (Hnh 1.2a), do , n lm tng dng C. iu ny gp phn ci thin bng tng kt ti sn, bi v n lm tng tnh thanh khon ca doanh nghip (hay h gia nh), do , ngi cho vay d dng hn trong vic tm hiu xem liu doanh nghip (hoc h gia nh) c kh nng hon tr tin vay khng. Kt qu l, ri ro v bt cn xng thng tin t nghim trng hn, nn quy m cho vay v I (c th c CO) tng ln. S gia tng ca I lm P tng (Hnh 1.2b). S sau y m t tc ng ca CSTT ti P qua knh bng tng kt ti sn, c th l knh dng tin: MS i Ri ro thng tin bt cn xng Cho vay ngn hng I Y P.
27
34
c. Tc ng ca chnh sch tin t ti gi c qua hiu ng thanh khon ca h gia nh (Houshold Liquidity Effects) Theo quan im v hiu ng thanh khon, cc nh hng i vi bng tng kt ti sn hot ng thng qua tc ng ti nguyn vng chi tiu ca ngi tiu dng. Do thng tin bt cn xng v cht lng, nn hng tiu dng lu bn v nh l nhng ti sn c tnh thanh khon rt thp. C th, nu gp phi c sc v thu nhp, ngi tiu dng phi bn hng tiu dng lu bn hoc nh ca mnh ly tin, v h d kin phi chp nhn cc khon l ln do khng thu c ton b gi tr ca cc ti sn ny khi buc phi bn chng i. Ngc li, nu nm gi cc ti sn ti chnh nh tin gi ngn hng, c phiu, hoc tri phiu, ngi tiu dng c th d dng bn chng i mt cch nhanh chng ly C theo gi th trng. V l do ny, nu ngi tiu dng d kin c nhiu kh nng ri vo tnh trng kh khn v ti chnh, h s nm gi t hng tiu dng lu bn hoc nh v nm gi nhiu ti sn ti chnh. Bng tng kt ti sn ca ngi tiu dng c nh hng quan trng ti c tnh v kh nng gp phi kh khn v ti chnh. c bit, khi ngi tiu dng c lng ti sn ti chnh ln hn s n m h c tnh c trong trng hp ri vo hon cnh kh khn v ti chnh, th h sn sng hn trong vic mua hng tiu dng lu bn hoc nh . Theo m hnh q-Tobin, CSTT m rng lm Ps tng ln. Theo phn tch v tnh thanh khon ca h gia nh trn, khi Ps tng, s gia tng trong dng C ca ngi tiu dng lm h gim kh nng gp kh khn v ti chnh. Thc t ny lm tng nguyn vng gi hng tiu dng lu bn, nh ca ngi tiu dng, t , CO tng. Tc ng CO tng lm cho P tng tng t nh c ch tc ng ca I ti P c ch ra Hnh 1.2b. Tc ng ca CSTT ti gi c qua knh bng tng kt ti sn, c th l tnh thanh khon ca h gia nh, c m t qua s sau y: MS Ps Ti sn ti chnh Kh nng kh khn
35
v ti chnh Chi tiu cho hng tiu dng lu bn v nh COY P.
KT LUN CHNG I
Ni dung chng I cp n cc khi nim c bn v CSTT v qu trnh tit v m ca NHTW bng CSTT thng qua vic s dng cc cng c ca CSTT t c mc tiu cui cng. V cc bin ng ca MS l kt qu ca vic thc thi CSTT, nn MS l i din hon ho cho CSTT trong cc phn tch nh lng. Do , chng I cp n cch xy dng h s nhn tin M2 nhm phn nh c th tc ng ca tng nhn t trong qu trnh thc thi CSTT ti MS. Bn cnh , ni dung chng I cng gii thiu cc ch s o lng mc gi chung ca nn kinh t, v c ch truyn ti ca MS ti mc gi chung ny. M hnh cu trc (structural model) v cc knh truyn ti ca CSTT cung cp mt bng chng l thuyt ton din v tc ng ca MS ti mc gi chung ca nn kinh t. Mc d c ch truyn ti ca CSTT cung cp mt c s l thuyt hon ho v tc ng ca CSTT ti gi c, nhng s tn ti ca qu nhiu knh truyn ti s gy kh khn trong vic ch nh m hnh phn tch nh lng. Do , vic ch nh m hnh c th phc v cho vic phn tch nh lng v phn tch thc nghim tc ng ca CSTT ti gi c Vit Nam trong thi k i Mi da trn m hnh ny s l ni dung chnh c cp n trong ni dung chng II.
36
CHNG II: PHN TCH NH LNG TC NG CA CHNH SCH TIN T TI GI C VIT NAM TRONG THI K I MI
2.1 Ch nh m hnh nghin cu 2.1.1 Bng chng rt gn v mi quan h gia MS v gi c M hnh cu trc v c ch truyn ti ca CSTT ti gi c bao gm cc phng trnh hnh vi m t phng thc vn hnh ca CSTT thng qua nhng knh khc nhau m tc ng ti gi c. Cc s khi qut v c ch tc ng ca CSTT ti gi c l nhng chui cc c ch tc ng tch bit nhau. Cc c ch tch bit ring ny hon ton ph hp v mt l thuyt, v c minh ha bng cc th ton hc. Nh vy, cc knh truyn ti cung cp nhiu bng chng hn v MS c gy ra bin ng gi c. Do , v mt l thuyt, cc knh truyn ti ca CSTT trong m hnh cu trc khng nh s tn ti ca quan h nhn qu gia MS v gi c. Tuy nhin, cc bng chng t m hnh cu trc ch tt nht khi tt c cc c ch tc ng c hiu bit y . Ni cch khc, phng thc tip cn m hnh cu trc ch tt nu chng ta bit cu trc chnh xc ca m hnh v khng b qua bt k mt c ch tc ng no ca CSTT d l nh nht. Nh vy, trnh vic ch nh m hnh khng y khi phn tch nh lng, cng nh
37
hin tng cng tuyn gia cc bin trong knh truyn ti ny vi knh truyn ti khc, cng trnh nghin cu s dng phng php tip cn dng rt gn (Reduced-Form Evidence). Bng chng dng rt gn cho bit MS c tc ng ti gi c bng cch quan st trc tip mi quan h gia hai bin ny. Ni cch khc, tc ng ca MS ti gi c nh th nn kinh t l chic hp en (black box) m cc hot ng khng th nhn thy c28. Bng chng dng rt gn ch chp c nh hng ca MS ti gi c thng qua vic tm hiu xem gi c c mi lin h tng quan cht ch vi cc bin ng ca MS khng. 2.1.2 C s l lun mi quan h gia MS v gi c Gi s vo mt thi im no , t l thay i ca sn lng v tc lu thng tin t c xem l khng i, gi c tng khi v ch khi MS gia tng tng ng. Theo l thuyt khi lng tin ca Irving Fisher (Quantity Theory of Money), mi quan h gia tin t v gi c c th hin trong phng trnh trao i (Equation of Exchange): MV=PQ (2.1) Trong , M l khi lng tin t giao dch, V l tc lu thng tin t, P l mc gi ca r hng ha c chn, v Q l mc thu nhp thc t29. Trong ngn hn, khi tc lu thng tin t v thu nhp khng thay i, phng trnh (2.1) tr thnh:
28
38
hay MP
Ni cch khc, MS thay i s dn n s thay i t l thun ca gi c. Tuy nhin, l thuyt nh lng hin i cng thy rng mi quan h gia MS v gi c khng nht thit phi tun theo mc bin i t l thun, m trong gi thit rng mi s thay i ca mc tng MS s nh hng ti thu nhp thc t cng nh gi c30. Trong di hn, nh hng MS ti thu nhp thc t v tc lu thng tin t khng cn. Bi v, thu nhp thc t l hm ca cc nhn t: lao ng, t bn, v nhn t nng sut tng hp31; cn tc lu thng tin t l hm ca mt s nhn t c trng khc. Khi , mc gi tng c quyt nh bi bin ng gim ca tng cung hoc bin ng tng t pha tng cu. Tng cung gim do cc c sc bt li v gi cc nguyn liu u vo hoc cung lao ng gim y tin lng ln cao, nhng tng cung gim khng gy ra tng gi trong di hn. Mc gi cao trong ngn hn s t ng iu chnh v trng thi cn bng. Tuy nhin, vi cc Chnh ph t mc tiu vic lm cao, cc bin php m rng tng cu s nhanh chng c p dng gi cho tht nghip v sn lng mc t nhin. Tng cu tng c th xut pht t tng chi tiu, gim thu, hoc tng MS. Vic tng chi tiu chnh ph v gim thu ch c gii hn nht nh. Do , trong di hn, tng MS l nhn t duy nht lm cho mc gi chung ca nn kinh t tng tng.
30 31
Friedman, M. (1969), The Optimum Quantity of Monetary and Other Essay, Mcmillan, London, tr. 34-45. Todaro and Smith (2006), Economic Development, 9e, Pearson Education Ltd., Essex, tr. 90-95.
39
Mc d mi tng quan gia MS v gi c l kh cao, nhng cc nghin cu ca cc nh tin t ch ra rng khng nht thit MS ch tc ng ti gi c theo mt chiu tuyn tnh. y cng chnh l hn ch ca vic ch nh m hnh nghin cu trn c s s dng bng chng dng rt gn. Bi v, cc bng chng dng rt gn khng th khng nh chc chn mi quan h tng quan gia cc bin trong m hnh c mi quan h nhn qu hay khng. Ni cch khc, cc bng chng dng rt gn khng loi tr mi quan h nhn qu ngc m trong nhng thay i ca gi c gy ra nhng thay i trong MS, hoc kh nng mt yu t th ba bn ngoi l nguyn nhn ca s thay i ca MS v gi c. Cc l thuyt lng ha ca cc nh tin t tha tha nhn kh nng gi c nh hng ti MS l nh so vi nh hng t MS ti gi c, trong MS c coi nh bin ngoi sinh32. Nh vy, khi nghin cu tc ng ca MS ti gi c, vic ch nh m hnh ph hp phc v cho vic kim nh mi quan h nhn qu gia tin t v gi c cng nh cc phn tch nh lng khc l cn thit. 2.1.3 Ch nh m hnh 2.1.3.1 M hnh tng qut Gi nh tc lu thng tin t v thu nhp thc t l n nh, khi , gi c s tr thnh mt hm ca lng tin cung ng. Ni cch khc, nu cho mt trng thi ca tc lu thng tin t, gi c c xc nh bi lng MS danh ngha cho mt n v thu nhp thc t. Tnh n nh trong t l thay th cn bin gia tin thc t v hng ha dn n mi lin kt c in gia nhng s thay
32
Friedman, M. v Schwartz, A. (1963), Money and Business Cycles, Review of Economics Statistics, tr. 3264.
40
i trong gi c v nhng s thay i trong MS cho mt n v sn phm. iu c ngha l x hi mong mun nm gi mt phn thu nhp di dng C33. Phng trnh (2.1) c th c vit li di dng cc s gia tng trng nh sau:
Biu din di dng hm s, phng trnh s gia ny nh sau: (2.2) Nu gi nh rng hm c th xp x bi mt h s a0
khng i th phng trnh (2.2) c th c vit li nh sau: (2.2) Di dng m hnh hi quy sai phn tuyn tnh s l: ; U l sai s ngu nhin (2.3) Vi gi nh tc lu thng tin t v thu nhp thc t n nh hn mi quan h gia nhng thay i trong tin t vi nhng thay i ca gi c, s hng a0 cn phi nh. V a0 i din cho s nh hng ca thu nhp thc t v tc lu thng tin t, du ca n s m nu nh hng ca s tng trng thu nhp thc t mnh hn s tng trng ca tc lu thng tin t. Cc gi thit ca l thuyt nh lng cht ch ra rng trong di hn th a0 = 0; a1 1. Nu a0 > 0 hoc a0 < 0, th iu ny ch ra rng nhng s thay i ca gi c c th tm thy
33
Sargent, T.J. v Wallance, N. (1973), Rational Expectations and the Dynamics of Hyperinflation, International Economic Review, Vol.14 (Apr.), tr. 328-350.
41
trong vic tnh ton s thay i trong thu nhp thc t v tc lu thng tin t34. 2.1.3.2 M hnh kim nh mi quan h nhn qu gia MS v gi c Theo Khatiwada35, phng php bnh phng b nht (OLS) cho mi quan h gia MS v gi c s mt ngha, nu mi quan h nhn qu t bin c lp MS n bin ph thuc gi c khng theo mt hng duy nht. Nu mi quan h a cng tuyn tn ti, phng php c lng OLS s tht bi. V mi quan h nhn qu ngc l kh nng c th xy ra ca phng php tip cn dng rt gn, v vy vic kim nh mi quan h nhn qu ngc gia gi c v MS l cn thit khi s dng phng php OLS. C hai dng kim nh c s dng cho mi quan h nhn qu gia MS v gi c l kim nh Granger v kim nh Sim. Tuy nhin, vi kim nh ny, cc chui s liu cn phi tha mn cc iu kin sau: Th nht, iu chnh tnh t tng quan ca bin ph thuc, nu khng th s a ra nhng kt lun sai lm v tnh nhn qu36; Th hai, phi chn la di tr (lag length) thch hp, bi v nh hng ca tnh nhn qu l thng xuyn nhy cm i vi vic s dng di tr trong cc c lng hi quy. iu kin ny c khng nh trong cc cng trnh nghin cu ca Feige37, Hsiao Cheng38, v Thorton39.
34 35
Khatiwada, Y.R. (1994), Some aspects of monetary policy in Nepal, South Asian Publishers, New Dehli, tr. 78. Khatiwada, Y.R. (1994), Some aspects of monetary policy in Nepal, South Asian Publishers, New Dehli, tr. 7880. 36 Granger, C.W.J. v Newbold, P. (1974), Spurious Regression in Econometries, Journal of Econometries, 2, tr. 111-120. 37 Feige, E.I. v Pearce, D.K. (1979), The Casal Relationship between Money and Income: Some Caveats for the Time Series Analysis, The Review of Economics and Statistics, 61(11), tr. 521-533.
42
V chui thi gian trong cc kim nh l vi phn bc nht ca cc gi tr dng logarit t nhin nn chng rt c th l cc chui dng. Cn vi di tr, do s liu thu thp c tnh theo nm v c tnh m hnh tr phn phi v hn na theo nhn nh v di tr c chn nu h s ca n l b nht nn di tr c la chn l t mt n hai nm40. Theo Granger, tnh nhn - qu c nhn ra nh sau: MS l nguyn nhn ca gi c, nu nhng d bo ca gi c da trn tt c nhng thng tin trong qu kh k c MS l tt hn da trn nhng thng tin trong qu kh loi tr MS. Gi c l nguyn nhn ca MS, nu nhng d bo ca MS da trn tt c nhng thng tin trong qu kh k c gi c l tt hn da trn nhng thng tin trong qu kh loi tr gi c. Cc m hnh cho kim nh Granger c ch nh nh sau:
38
Hsiao, Cheng (1981), Autoregressive Modelling and Money-Income Causality Detection, Journal of Monetary Economics, 7, tr. 85-106. 39 Thorton, D.I. v Batten, D.S. (1985), Lag Length Selection and Test of Granger Causality between Money and Income, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 17, tr. 167-178. 40 Wooldridge, J.M. (2000), Introductory Econometrics - A Modern Approach, 2e, MIT Press, Cambridge, London, tr. 582.
43
Nu MS l nguyn nhn gy ra gi c, th cc c lng ca OLS phi ch ra rng cc h s cj trong phng trnh (2.4) l khc khng v c ngha thng k, cn fj trong phng trnh (2.5) nu khc khng th khng c ngha thng k. Cc m hnh cho kim nh Sim c ch nh nh sau:
MS khng phi l nguyn nhn ca gi c nu g i = 0, vi i > 0 trong phng trnh (2.6) v hi = 0 vi i < 0 trong phng trnh (2.7). Gi c khng phi l nguyn nhn ca MS nu gi = 0, vi i < 0 trong phng trnh (2.6) v h i = 0 vi i > 0 trong phng trnh (2.7). Trong phm vi cng trnh nghin cu ny, tc gi s dng la chn kim nh Granger cho kim nh tnh nhn - qu gia MS v gi c. 2.1.4 Bng chng thc nghim v m hnh c s dng cho phn tch nh lng L thuyt khi lng tin t bt u c quan tm nghin cu khi hin tng siu lm pht xy ra ti bn quc gia: c, o, Hungary, v Phn Lan. Vic Chnh ph pht hnh tin ti tr cho thm ht ngn sch gy ra hin tng lm pht trm trng ti cc quc gia ny. Hnh 2.1 ch ra mi quan h tng quan cao gia MS v mc gi chung ti bn nc ny nc trong thi k
44
t 1921 1925. Tuy nhin, cc nghin cu thc nghim trong giai on ny khng c nghin cu nhiu cho n khi l thuyt khi lng tin t ra i.
Ngun: Thomas J.Sargent (1993), The end of Four Big Inflation, Robert Hall, ed., Inflation, University of Chicago Press, tr. 41-93. M hnh l thuyt khi lng tin t ca Irving Fisher cung cp mt c s l thuyt chc chn cho mi quan h gia MS v gi c. Bng cch s dng s liu cho ca 16 quc gia M Latinh trong giai on 1950 1969, Vogel (1974) khng nh C, D v mc thu nhp thc t GDP/CPI gii thch c ti 99% bin ng ca gi c. H s gc ca bin i din cho tin t xp x 1,04 vi sai s ca m hnh mc khng ng k 1,9641.
41
Vogel, R. (1974), The dynamics of inflation in Latin America, American Economic Review, 64, tr. 102 -114.
45
Nm 1988, Dwyer v Hafer s dng d liu cho ca 62 quc gia trong giai on 1961 1978 v a ra kt lun rng, khi lng tin t v mc thu nhp thc t (c xc nh l t l thu nhp quc ni/thu nhp quc dn) GDP/GNP gii thch c 93% bin ng ca ch s gim pht GDP/GNP. Sai s ca m hnh l 2,24 v h s gc ca bin tin t l 1,02 42. Tip theo cng trnh nghin cu ca Dwyer v Hafer, Yash P. Mehra (1989) s dng m hnh l thuyt khi lng tin t v a thm bin chi ph c hi. Trong , chi ph c hi c xc nh l li sut ca thng phiu k hn t 4 6 thng c mua bn trn th trng. Nghin cu nn kinh t Hoa K theo s liu hng qu t 1952 1988, Yash P. Mehra khng nh bin ng ca ch s gim pht GNP ca nn kinh t Hoa K trong di hn l kt qu cng hng ca t l tng M2 vt qu GNP thc t trong ngn hn cng li43. Khi nghin cu s liu cho ca 79 quc gia khc nhau, Barro (1990) a ra kt lun, mc thu nhp GDP thc t v lng tin mt gii thch c 96% bin ng ca ch s CPI vi sai s ca m hnh l 2,9344. Kt qu ny ca Barro c Duck (1993) ng h khi ng la chn 33 trong tng s 79 quc gia ca Barro lm d liu nghin cu cho thi k 1962 1984. Duck kt lun rng lng tin mt trong lu thng, tin gi ngoi t (quasi money) v mc thu nhp thc t GDP/GNP gii thch c ti 99% bin ng ca ch s gim pht GDP/GNP.
42
Dwyer G.P. v R.W.Hafer (1988), Is money irrelevant, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, 70 (5/6), tr. 3-17. 43 Yash P. Mehra (1989), Cointegration and a Test of the Quantity Theory of Money, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, Richmond, VA, tr. 1-19.
44
Stefan Gerlach (1995), Testing the quantity theory using long-run averaged cross-country data, BIS Working Paper No. 31, tr. 11.
46
H s gc ca bin i din cho tin t bng 1 v sai s ca m hnh ch mc 1,9345. Nm 1996, khi nghin cu s liu v M2, ch s gim pht GNP, thu nhp thc t GNP, v li sut trn th trng Hoa K t qu 1/1959 qu 4/1993, Miyao khng nh c s tn ti ca quan h cng tch (cointegration) gia cc bin trong mu c la chn trc nm 1990, nhng khng c mi quan h cng tch trong ton b mu c la chn46. Khi nghin cu v cc s liu hng nm trn th trng Hoa K, nhng khng a bin li sut vo m hnh nghin cu, Whitesell (1997) kt lun rng trong giai on 1962 1979 v 1980 1991, GNP thc t, ch s gim pht GNP c mi quan h cht ch47. Tuy nhin, s dng cc s liu tng t nh Miyao nhng ly t qu 1/1959 qu 1/2004, Jamie Emerson (2006) mt ln na khng nh khng c mi quan h cng tch trong di hn gia M2, ch s gim pht GNP v mc thu nhp GNP thc t48. P.R. Brahmananda v G. Nagaraju (2004) nghin cu mi quan h gia M1, M3, ch s gi bn bun v sn lng thc t, v li sut danh ngha n theo qu t 1960 1999 bng hi quy bi, v kt lun h s gc ca M1 xp x 1. Nu thay M1 bng M3, h s gc ny xp x -1. T , P.R. Brahmananda v G. Nagaraju kt lun rng M1 tc ng mnh ti mc gi chung n , v li sut danh ngha lm tc ng ny mnh hn49.
45
Duck, N. (1993), Some international evidence on the quantity theory of money, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 25, tr. 1-12. 46 Miyao, R. (1996) Does a Cointegrating M2 Demand Relation Really Exist in the United States?, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 28 (3), 365-380. 47 Whitesell, W. (1997) Interest Rates and M2 in an Error Correction Macro Model, Finance and Economics Discussion Series, 59, Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, tr. 34-87. 48 Emerson, Jamie (2006), The Quantity Theory of Money: Evidence from the United States, Economics Bulletin, 5 (2), tr. 1- 6. 49 P.R. Brahmananda, G. Nagaraju (2004), Quantity Theory of Money in the Indian Empirical Setting, National Institute of Bank Management, Pune, tr. 89- 102.
47
Ferdinand Nwafor, Hudson Nwakanma, Paul Nkansah, v Forrest Thompson (2007) kim nh mi quan h gia M2, t l lm pht k vng, li sut thc t v thu nhp thc t ti Nigeria t qu 3/1986 qu 4/2005 bng phng php cng tch Johansen Juselius v kt lun rng M2 c nh hng mnh n cc yu t cn li. Do , cc tc gi ny kin ngh s dng M2 l mc tiu trung gian cho iu hnh CSTT ti Nigeria50.
50
Ferdinand Nwafor v cng s (2007), The Quantity Theory of Money in a Developing Economy: Empirical Evidence from Nigeria, African Economic and Business Review, 5 (1), tr. 1-9.
48
BNG 2.1 Tm tt nhng nghin cu thc nghim v m hnh c ch nh

Nn kinh Tc gi t nghin cu
Vogel (1974)
Giai on nghin cu
Cc bin s dng trong m hnh MV = PY
Kt lun
M v Q gii thch c 99% bin ng ca P. M v Q gii thch c 93% bin ng ca P. Bin ng ca P trong di hn l do t l tng M vt qu Q. M v Q gii thch c 96% bin ng ca P. M v Q gii thch c 99% bin ng ca P. C mi quan h cng tch (cointegration) trong mi quan h gia cc bin trong mu c la chn trc nm 1990, nhng khng c mi quan h cng tch trong ton b mu c la chn.
16 nc M 1950 1969 Latinh
Dwyer v 62 nc Hafer (1988) Yash Mehra (1989) P. Hoa K
Barro (1990)
79 nc 33 nc Hoa K
Duck (1993)
Miyao (1996)
M: C v D P: CPI Q: GDP/CPI 1961 1978 M: khng cp P: Ch s gim pht GDP/GNP Q: GDP/GNP Qu 1/1952 P: Ch s gim pht GNP Qu 4/ 1988 M: M2 Q: GNP thc t (Thm bin chi ph c hi Li sut thng phiu c k hn 4 6 thng trn th trng) Sau 1950 M: C P: CPI Q: GDP thc 1962 1984 M: C v tin gi ngoi t (quasi money) P: Ch s gim pht GDP/GNP Q: GDP/GNP Qu 1/1959 M: M2 Qu 4/1993 P: Ch s gim pht GNP Q: GNP thc t (Thm bin gii thch li sut)
49
BNG 2.1 Tm tt nhng nghin cu thc nghim v m hnh c ch nh (tip theo)

Nn kinh Tc gi t nghin cu
Whitesell (1997) Hoa K
Giai on nghin cu
1962 1991
Cc bin s dng trong m hnh MV = PY

M: M2 P: Ch s gim pht GNP Q: GNP thc t
Kt lun
Tn ti mi quan h di hn gia cc bin trong giai on 1962 1979 v 1980 1991. M1 tc ng mnh ti P hn M3. Khng c mi quan h cng tch trong di hn gia M, P, Q v li sut. M2 c mi quan h cht ch vi cc bin khc.
P.R.Brahmananda, n G.Nagaraju (2004) Jamie (2006) Emerson Hoa K
1960 1999
M: M1, M3 Q: Sn lng thc t P: Ch s gi bn bun (Thm bin gii thch li sut danh ngha) Qu 1/1959 M: M2 Qu P: Ch s gim pht GNP 4/2004 Q: GNP thc t (Thm bin gii thch - li sut) Qu 3/1986 M: M2 Qu P: T l lm pht k vng 4/2005 Q: Thu nhp thc t (Thm bin gii thch - li sut thc t)
Ferdinand Nigeria Nwafor, Hudson Nwakanma, Paul Nkansah, v Forrest Thompson (2007)
Ngun: Tc gi dn
50
Cc nghin cu thc nghim v m hnh c ch nh cho cc phn tch nh lng trong cng trnh ny t nm 1974 tr li y u c nhng kt qu khc nhau (Bng 2.1). S khc nhau ny mt phn l do gi nh ca m hnh cng nh vic la chn cc bin i din. Phn ln kt lun cho thy m hnh c ch nh cho vic phn tch nh lng gii thch c chiu hng bin ng ca gi c. Bn cnh , kt qu ca nhng nghin cu trn cng cho thy nguyn nhn ca bin ng gi c trong di hn l bt ngun t tin t. 2.2 Phn tch tc ng ca chnh sch tin t ti gi c Vit Nam trong thi k i Mi 2.2.1M t s liu v kim nh tnh dng ca cc chui s liu 2.2.1.1 M t cc bin c s thc hin phn tch nh lng, tc gi s dng s liu theo nm ca Vit Nam trong giai on 1986 2010. Trong cc s liu ca nm 2010 c l cc s liu c lng. Nh vy, c 25 quan st c bn. S liu v MS c i din bi M2, c n v o l t VND, v c ly theo s liu ca ngn hng pht trin chu (ADB) (Ph lc A1). Ch s CPI i din cho mc gi chung ca nn kinh t, nm 2000 l nm c s, c ly t s liu ca qu tin t quc t (IMF) (Ph lc A2). Bng 2.2 m t tnh cht cc bin m tc gi s s dng thc hin cc m hnh hi quy vi 25 quan st. Gi tr trung bnh cho bit mc san bng gi tr ca cc bin qua thi gian. Cn lch chun cho bit mc dao ng ca bin s xung quanh gi tr trung bnh.
51
BNG 2.2 Tm tt thng k cc bin s dng cho m hnh hi quy

Bin M2 lnM2 CPI lnCPI S st 25 25 25 25 quan Gi tr Gi tr ln Gi tr nh nht 112 4,718499 0,411 -0,889162 chun 729190 2,560076 57,00791 1,464317 lch
trung bnh nht 470425 11,33815 90,8722 4,028104 2720312 14,81626 214,853 5,369954
Ngun: Tnh ton ca tc gi t s liu nghin cu. 2.2.1.2 Kim nh tnh dng ca cc chui s liu V s liu cho cc bin hi quy l cc chui s theo thi gian, nn ta kim tra tnh dng ca chng trnh gp phi cc hi quy gi mo.
BNG 2.3 Kim nh tnh dng ca cc chui s M2, lnM2, CPI v lnCPI
Bin Mc tr Gi tr kim nh Gi tr ti hn Tnh dng
1%
5%
10%
M2 M2 D(1) lnM2 lnM2 CPI D(1) CPI
1 1 1 1 1
18,10202 3,047687
-3,738 -2,992
-2,636 Dng 1% -2,639 Khng dng -2,639 Dng 10% -2,636 Khng dng
-3,769 -3,0048 -2,642 Dng 5%
-1,146789 -3,753 -2,998 -2,906613 -3,753 -2,998 1,587912 -3,738 -2,992
52
D(1) lnCPI lnCPI D(1)
1 1 1
-2,829438 -3,753 -2,998 -13,95233 -3,738 -2,992 -3.773699 -3,753 -2,998
-2,639 Dng 10% -2,636 Dng 1% -2,638 Dng 1%
Ngun: Tnh ton ca tc gi t s liu nghin cu.
Kim nh Dickey-Fuller c s dng kim nh nghim n v, vi gi thit H0 l chui khng dng. D(1) l sai phn bc 1 ca cc bin. Bng 2.3 cho thy mc d CPI v lnM2 l cc chui khng dng, tuy nhin sai phn bc 1 ca cc chui lnM2 v lnCPI u l cc chui dng cc mc ngha ln lt l 10% v 1% (Xem kt qu hi quy Ph lc B1 B8). Nh vy, cc s liu c s dng cho hi quy hon ton ph hp cho m hnh ang xem xt. 2.2.2 Phn tch nh lng tc ng ca CSTT ti gi c trong giai on 1986 1995 2.2.2.1 Tnh hnh kinh t Vit Nam giai on 1986 1995 Trong giai on 1986 1995, mc gi chung ca nn kinh t tng cao xut pht t nguyn nhn tng trng MS. T nm 1986 1989, CPI tng trn 2 ch s (Nm 1986: 453,54%; Nm 1987: 360,36%; Nm 1988: 374,35%; Nm 1989: 95,77%) (Ph lc A2) l do vic ti tr cho thm ht ngn sch Nh nc bng cch in tin. Trc nm 1986, nn kinh t c qun l v vn hnh theo c ch k hoch ha tp trung. Theo , gi c c qun l ton din v khng c s vn hnh ca c ch th trng v tc ng ca cc bin ng t bn ngoi. V vy, nn kinh t Vit Nam gn nh mt nn kinh t ng. Chnh sch ti kha ca Chnh ph v th m c hiu qu rt mnh vi gi c ca nn kinh t Vit Nam trong thi k u ca nhng nm i Mi. Tuy nhin, Chnh ph li cha
53
c nhng kinh nghim xy dng nhng chnh sch v m iu tit nn kinh t th trng. Chnh v vy, trong giai on 1986 1989, hn 50% tng vn u t ton x hi n t Ngn sch Nh nc, nhng hiu qu rt thp (ch s ICOR t 2 n 5)51.
Cng v th, thm ht ngn sch bt u tr nn nghim trng t nhng nm 1986 (Hnh 2.2). Nm 1986, thm ht ngn sch l 37 t ng, tng ln gp gn 4 ln t 135 t ng vo nm 1987, v lin tc thm ht hng nghn t ng vo cc nm k tip52.V nhng thay i trong d ton thu chi ngn sch Nh nc hay thay i tng sc thu trong cc lut thu u phi thng qua nhng quy trnh v th tc hnh chnh tng i phc tp v cng nhc, nn vic pht
51
i hc Kinh t, i hc Quc gia H Ni (2008), Lm pht Vit Nam hin nay Nguyn nhn v gii php, NXB i hc quc gia H Ni, H Ni, tr. 79. 52 ADB (2000), Key Indicators for Asia and the Pacific, 6 ADB Avenue, Mandaluyong City, 1550 Metro Manila, Philippines, tr. 380.
54
hnh tin b p bi chi ngn sch Nh nc l mt cch thc hiu qu v linh hot nht trong giai on ny. Hnh 2.3 cho thy tc tng MS do in tin ti tr cho thm ht ngn sch trong giai on 1986 1995 cao hn trong cc thi k cn li. Tc tng MS lun t mc ba ch s trong giai on 1986 1989, v tng trung bnh gn 318% trong thi k ny. Mc gi chung trong nn kinh t tng ln nhanh chng khin Chnh ph phi ct gim MS, t do ha kinh t v iu chnh t gi hi oi tr nn thc t hn. Cc ng thi t Chnh ph lm tc tng CPI gim xung nhanh chng t 453,54% vo nm 1986 xung cn 36,03% vo nm 1990 (Ph lc A2).
55
Trong giai on 1990 1995, mc gi chung ca nn kinh t tng cao nhng thp hn so vi giai on trc . Nguyn nhn ch yu cng do MS tng cao trong giai on ny (trung bnh gn 40%/nm). Hnh 2.2 cho thy giai on 1990 1995 thm ht ngn sch tng cao hn giai on 1986 1989, nhng mc tng MS trong thi k ny li thp hn rt nhiu (Hnh 2.3). Chnh vic thc hin CSTT tht cht kt hp vi ci cch ngn sch, chm dt tnh trng ti tr cho thm ht ngn sch bng cch m rng c s tin t lm cho mc tng CPI gim xung ng k (trung bnh 31%/nm53). 2.2.2.2 Kt qu phn tch nh lng Thc hin hi quy tc ng ca CSTT (i din l lng tin cung ng M2) ti gi c (i din l CPI) theo m hnh (2.3) bng phn mm Eview 6.0 vi mc ngha 5%, thu c phng trnh hi quy: lnCPI = (T) R2 = 0,939 - 0.0798 + 0.979*lnM2 (-0.971) F-Statistic = 107,78 (10.381) Durbin Watson stat = 1,551
Phng trnh hi quy trn cho thy h s hi quy ca bin M2 dng vi mc ngha 5% v c ngha thng k. H s R2 kh cao cho thy m hnh hon ton ph hp (Xem kt qu hi quy Ph lc B9). iu ny cho thy CSTT tc ng mnh n s thay i ca mc gi chung trong nn kinh t Vit Nam giai on 1986 1995. C th, khi M2 tng 10% th CPI s tng 9,7%. Kt qu hi quy hon ton ph hp v mt l thuyt kinh t cng nh thc tin khch quan din ra trong giai on 1986 1995.
53
i hc Kinh t, i hc Quc gia H Ni (2008), Lm pht Vit Nam hin nay Nguyn nhn v gii php, NXB i hc quc gia H Ni, H Ni, tr. 67.
56
2.2.3 Phn tch nh lng tc ng ca CSTT ti gi c trong giai on 1996 2004 2.2.3.1 Tnh hnh kinh t Vit Nam giai on 1996 2004 Bi hc t thi k lm pht phi m trong giai on 1986 1989 khin Chnh ph t mc tiu bnh n gi c nhm t c cc mc tiu kinh t v m trong sut giai on 1996 2004. Chnh nhng u tin ca Chnh ph trong vic t trng tm vo vic n nh gi c trong nc khin nn kinh t tng trng nhanh hn. Nn kinh t bt u tng trng nhanh t 1995 v ko di n nm 1997 khi cuc khng hong ti chnh ca cc nc ng din ra. Khng hong nm 1997 lm hu ht cc nc nh Thi Lan, Hn Quc, Indonesia ngay lp tc ri vo suy thoi. Tuy nhin, Vit Nam khi cha phi l quc gia c t do ha hon ton trong cn cn ti khon vn nn phn ln cc knh ly lan khng hong trc tip khng th thm nhp. Do Vit Nam ch c cc knh gin tip nh u t trc tip v thng mi b nh hng, nn khng hong nh hng n Vit Nam tr hn cc nc k trn. B nh hng khng ng k ca c sc ny, tc tng trng kinh t gim dn v gn nh c chiu hng suy thoi vo nm 1999, hai nm sau khng hong ti chnh ng (Hnh 2.4).
HNH 2.4 Tc tng trng kinh t ca Vit Nam giai on giai on 1980 2010 v d bo n nm 2015
57
ngn chn chiu hng suy thoi ca nn kinh t, Chnh ph n lc thc hin cc chng trnh kch cu v tin hnh ci cch ton din h thng ngn hng trong nc. c bit vi s ra i ca Lut Ngn hng Nh nc vo nm 1997, NHNN Vit Nam c s c lp hn rt nhiu trong vic iu tit kinh t v m, bnh n gi c so vi giai on trc . Do vy, tc tng MS gim hn rt nhiu so vi thi k trc (Hnh 2.5).
58
2.2.3.2 Kt qu phn tch nh lng Trong giai on ny, cc chnh sch iu tit v m ca Chnh ph ng vai tr rt quan trng trong vic n nh gi c t c cc mc tiu kinh t v m khc. V vy, hm hi quy (2.3) s dng thm bin gi CHINHSACH - Di1 nh gi mt cch tng qut nht tc ng ca CSTT ti gi c ca nn kinh t Vit Nam trong giai on 1996 2004 trong giai on ny1996 2004. V tr ca cc chnh sch ca Chnh ph tc ng n cc bin s v m vi tr 2 nm l mt c lng ph bin (common estimate) 54, do c th xem tc ng ca cc chng trnh kch thch kinh t ca Vit Nam trong nhng nm 1998 v cc ci cch vi h thng ngn hng vi vic cho NHNN Vit Nam c lp tng i trong khon thi gian ny, c tc ng thc s n cc bin s v m vo khong nhng nm 2000 v 2001. V vy, Di1 s nhn gi tr bng 1 trong nm 2000, 2001 v nhn gi tr bng 0 trong nhng nm cn li ca giai on 1996 2004. Thc hin hi quy tc ng ca CSTT (i din l lng tin cung
54
Bernanke, Ben S. v cng s (1999), Inflation Targeting: Lessons from the International Experience, Princeton University Press, Princeton, tr. 315-320.
59
ng M2), chnh sch (i din l bin gi Di1) ti gi c (i din l CPI), vi mc ngha 5%, sau khi khc phc cc khuyt tt t tng quan v phng sai sai s thay i, phng trnh hi quy thu c nh sau (Xem kt qu hi quy Ph lc B10): lnCPI = 0,058 0,003*lnM2 0,057*CHINHSACH (T) R2 = 0,7 (2,34) (-0,32) (-2,99)
F-statistic = 7,13 Durbin Watson = 2,6
M hnh thu c khng c cc khuyt tt, ng thi h s R 2 kh cao. Cc kim nh thng k F cho thy, m hnh hon ton ph hp. H s hi quy ca bin M2 c gi tr m v khng c ngha thng k. Nh vy, trong thi k 1996 2004, CSTT trong nc khng c tc ng n mc gi chung ca ton nn kinh t. Ngc li, h s hi quy ca bin gi CHINHSACH nhn gi tr m v c ngha thng k. iu ch ra rng, trong nhng nm t 1996 2004, cc chnh sch ca Chnh ph, c th l cc chng trnh kch thch kinh t trong bi cnh chu tc ng khng hong ti chnh tin t ng v lut NHNN vo nm 1997 vi vic trao tnh c lp hn cho NHNN Vit nam so vi thi k trc , c tc ng ti mc gi chung ca ton nn kinh t v lm gim mc gi ny. 2.2.4 Phn tch nh lng tc ng ca CSTT ti gi c trong giai on 2005 2010 2.2.4.1 Tnh hnh kinh t Vit Nam giai on 2005 2010 Thi k 2005 2010 nh du mt ct mc lch s trong thi k i Mi Vit Nam khi Vit Nam tr thnh thnh vin c t cch y ca t chc
60
thng mi th gii (WTO) vo nm 2007. Nh vy, sau hn 20 nm m ca nn kinh t, Vit Nam thc s hi nhp su hn vo th trng th gii. Bn cnh cc c hi v bnh ng trong thng mi v u t quc t m vic gia nhp WTO mang li, vic hi nhp vo nn kinh t th gii cng c ngha l Vit Nam d b nh hng bi nhng tc ng tiu cc ca tnh hnh kinh t th gii. Trong giai on ny lng ngoi t vo nc ta nhanh hn giai on trc . Th nht, ngoi t tng bt ngun t u t trc tip nc ngoi vo Vit Nam trong giai on ny tng vt trong giai on 2005 2010 (Hnh 2.7). Th hai, trong thi k ny, lng kiu hi chuyn v nc tip tc gi tc cao t trung bnh 7 t USD/nm, v cha k ngun vn vin tr pht trin chnh thc (ODA) tip tc duy tr mc cao. Lng ngoi t bt ng vo th trng ngoi hi ngy cng tng, tuy nhin, NHNN c mc tiu n nh t gi nn phi mua vo s ngoi t . Kt qu l, mc d nc ta cha t do ha ti khon vn nhng lng ngoi t mua d tr trong thi k 2005 2010 tng qu nhanh. c bit, nm 2007 lng ngoi t d tr bng c 15 nm trc cng li, bt ng a d tr ngoi hi ca Vit Nam ln tng ng trn 20 tun nhp khu55.
55
61
62
63
Bn cnh , th trng chng khon pht trin mnh trong giai on ny, c bit l cui nm 2006 u nm 2007, ch s VN-index tng mnh, c thi im t trn 1100 im56. S pht trin nhanh chng ca th trng ny lm cho knh u t chng khon tr thnh knh u t hp dn khng ch cc nh u t trong nc m c cc nh u t nc ngoi. Khi dng vn u t nc ngoi vo th trng chng khon, cc nh u t s bn ngoi t cho cc NHTM ly tin VND, sau s dng tin ng u t chng khon. Khi cc nh u t nc ngoi mua chng khon th ngay lp tc lm tng lng tin M2, v cc khon tin c chuyn vo cc doanh nghip Vit Nam, qua lm tng gi tr ti sn n trong nc ca cc NHTM, ng thi lm tng ti sn c ngoi t rng ca cc NHTM. Khi cc NHTM bn ngoi t cho NHNN Vit Nam, hnh ng ny s lm tng ti sn c ca NHNN Vit Nam v gim ti sn c ngoi t ca cc NHTM. Nh vy, tng ti sn c ngoi t ca nn kinh t khng thay i, tuy nhin khi lng tin M2 li tng ngay trc khi NHNN mua ngoi t57. Nh vy, trong giai on 2005 2010, ngun ngoi t vo nc ta mnh trn c ba knh: u t trc tip nc ngoi, u t gin tip nc ngoi qua th trng chng khon, knh kiu hi v cha k knh vin tr pht trin chnh thc (ODA) cng tng ng k. V nguyn tc, khi lung vn nc ngoi u t vo Vit Nam tng, VND phi ln gi to ra im cn bng. Tuy nhin, vi chin lc pht trin da vo xut khu, NHNN Vit Nam s dng VND mua li lng ngoi t ny vi mc ch km t gi ca VND vi ng USD thp hn im cn bng nhm nng cao tnh cnh tranh ca hng xut khu v gi. Gi VND th yu c th coi l mt hnh thc tr gi cho hng xut khu v pht huy trong nhng iu kin kinh t th gii nht nh. Tuy nhin, mt tri ca vic neo t
56
i hc Kinh t, i hc Quc gia H Ni (2008), Lm pht Vit Nam hin nay Nguyn nhn v gii php, NXB i hc quc gia H Ni, H Ni, tr. 111. 57 i hc Kinh t, i hc Quc gia H Ni (2008), Lm pht Vit Nam hin nay Nguyn nhn v gii php, NXB i hc quc gia H Ni, H Ni, tr. 96.
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gi VND vi USD l NHNN phi lin tc mua li lng USD chy vo, lng MS ca Vit Nam v th m tng cao. Ngoi ra, trong vi nm gn y, do thm ht thng mi khng l, USD mt gi so vi nhng ngoi t mnh khc. T nm 2006 n nay, ng USD mt gi trung bnh khong 15% so vi cc ng ngoi t mnh khc nh Euro, Yn Nht, Bng Anh v ng Nhn dn t58. Bn cnh , cuc khng hong tn dng nh t ti Hoa K vo cui nm 2007, khin nn kinh t ny bc vo giai on suy thoi, y USD mt gi nhiu hn na. Tuy nhin, do chnh sch neo t gi VND, nn trong giai on ny, VND lin tc mt gi vi USD (Hnh 2.6). Chnh sch VND yu gp phn nhp khu lm pht vo Vit Nam. L do l sn xut ti Vit Nam hin nay ph thuc rt ln vo cc nguyn, vt liu nhp khu nh xng, du, xi mng, st, thp, my mc. S mt gi ca USD hay ni cch khc l s tng gi thnh ca cc mt hng nhp khu thit yu cho chi ph nhp khu tng. Hnh 2.8 ch ra tnh trng thm ht cn cn vng lai ca Vit Nam trong giai on 2005 2010. Chi ph nhp khu tnh bng VND tng di ch neo t gi l nguyn nhn ch yu dn n chi ph sn xut trong nc tng, ko theo gi hng ha tng theo. Nh vy, vic hi nhp su hn vo nn kinh t th gii, khin cho vic tng ngun vn u t, cng vi chnh sch neo t gi hi oi l nguyn nhn gy ra mc gi chung trong nn kinh t tng trong giai on 2005 2010.
58
65
Bn cnh , vic hi nhp su hn vo nn kinh t th gii lm cho nn kinh t nc ta bin ng cng chiu vi vi nn kinh t trong khu vc v th gii. Hnh 2.4 cho thy, nm 2008 khi cuc suy thoi kinh t ton cu xy ra, tng trng kinh t ca Vit Nam chng li v suy gim gn nh ng thi vi cc nc Chu ang pht trin ni ring v nn kinh t th gii ni chung. Tnh hnh ny hon ton khc vi cuc khng hong ti chnh ng vo nm 1997 khi m nn kinh t nc ta ch thc s b tc ng vo thi im hai nm sau . Ngoi ra, Hnh 2.9 ch ra xu hng bin ng lm pht ca Vit Nam cng chiu vi din bin lm pht trong khu vc v trn th gii trong giai on 2005 2010 ni ring, trong thi k i Mi ni chung v d bo n nm 2015. Nh vy, vic hi nhp vo nn kinh t ton cu c tc ng rt ln n din bin gi c trong nc Vit Nam trong giai on 2005 2010. iu ny c IMF khng nh khi nghin cu tnh ly truyn ca lm pht trn th gii khi mc m ca th trng tng v thc hin cc cam kt hi nhp kinh t - ti chnh quc t 23 nn kinh t th trng mi ni (bao gm Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Trung Quc, Colombia, Ai Cp,
66
Hungary, n , Indonesia, Isarel, Hn Quc, Malaysia, Mexico, Ma-rc, Pakistan, Peru, Philippines, Nam Phi, Thi Lan, Th Nh K, Uruguay, Venezuela, Zimbabwe) trong giai on 1970 1990. Theo , din bin lm pht cc quc gia ny c mi quan h vi lm pht ton cu khng km mi quan h vi thm ht ngn sch59. HNH 2.9 Bin ng lm pht Vit Nam, cc nc Chu ang pht trin v th gii giai on 1980 2010 v d bo n nm 2015 (n v: %)
Vit Nam:
Cc nc chu ang pht trin:
Th gii:
Ngun:
IMF (2010), IMF Data Mapper. Truy cp ngy 11 thng 07 nm 2010, t
http://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/index.php.
59
i hc Kinh t, i hc Quc gia H Ni (2008), Lm pht Vit Nam hin nay Nguyn nhn v gii php, NXB i hc quc gia H Ni, H Ni, tr. 83-84.
67
2.2.4.2 Kt qu phn tch nh lng Trong giai on ny, vic Vit Nam hi nhp su vo nn kinh t th gii ng vai tr rt quan trng hnh thnh cc tc ng ln s gia tng mc gi chung ca nn kinh t. V vy, hm hi quy (2.3) s dng thm bin gi HOINHAP - Di2 nh gi mt cch ton din cc nhn t tc ng ca CSTT ti gi c ca nn kinh t Vit Nam bi cnh nn kinh t Vit Nam gia nhp WTO. Vit Nam tr thnh thnh vin chnh thc ca WTO t nm 2007, chu tc ng ca cuc suy thoi kinh t ton cu bt ngun t cuc khng hong tn dng nh t Hoa K vo cui nm 2007. Cuc khng hong ny tc ng n nn kinh t Vit Nam vo nm 2008. V vy, hai s kin ny u i din cho nh hng ca vic hi nhp su vo nn kinh t th gii tc ng n nn kinh t Vit Nam. Nm 2008 l nm hi t tiu biu nht cc tc ng ca hai s kin ny. V vy, Di2 s nhn gi tr bng 1 trong nm 2008 v nhn gi tr bng 0 trong nhng nm cn li ca giai on 2005 - 2010. Thc hin hi quy tc ng ca CSTT (i din l lng tin cung ng M2), cc tc ng ca nn kinh t th gii sau khi Vit Nam gia nhp WTO (i din l bin gi D2i) ti gi c (i din l CPI), vi mc ngha 5%, sau khi khc phc cc khuyt tt t tng quan v phng sai sai s thay i, phng trnh hi quy thu c nh sau (Xem kt qu hi quy Ph lc B11): lnCPI = 0,092 0,035*lnM2 + 0,122*HOINHAP (T) R2 = 0,9 (1,55) (-0,17) (3,87)
F-statistic = 14,56 Durbin Watson = 2,12
M hnh thu c khng c cc khuyt tt, ng thi h s R 2 kh cao. Cc kim nh thng k F cho thy, m hnh hon ton ph hp. H s hi quy ca bin M2 c gi tr m v khng c ngha thng k. Nh vy, trong giai on 2005
68
2010, CSTT trong nc khng c tc ng n mc gi chung ca ton nn kinh t. Ngc li, h s hi quy ca bin gi HOINHAP nhn gi tr dng v c ngha thng k. iu ch ra rng, trong giai on 2005 - 2010, cc tc ng t nn kinh t th gii c tc ng mnh n mc gi chung ca nn kinh t trong nc, v lm tng mc gi ny. L gi c ca tin v phn nh tng ha tng quan mc gi chung x hi trn th trng trong nc so vi th trng nc ngoi, t gi i din cho cc bin ng t th gii bn ngoi tc ng n gi c trong nc. V vy, cc bt cp trong nh hng chnh sch i ng khi Vit Nam hi nhp vo nn kinh t ton cu, c th l chnh sch t gi hi oi, khng ph hp so vi bin ng ca kinh t th gii l nguyn nhn chnh gy ra cc bin ng bt li ca gi c trong giai on ny. Kt lun trn hon ton ph hp vi cc l thuyt kinh t, bi v khi t gi danh ngha VND/USD khng linh hot th cc bin ng ca mc gi nc ngoi s lan truyn mnh sang gi ni a trong di hn qua knh MS. l chi ph ca vic km gi t gi c nh hoc gn nh c nh. 2.2.5 Phn tch nh lng tc ng ca CSTT ti gi c trong giai on 1986 2010 Thc hin hi quy tc ng ca CSTT (i din l lng tin cung ng M2), vi mc ngha 5%, phng trnh hi quy thu c nh sau (Xem kt qu hi quy Ph lc B12): lnCPI = -0,171 + 1,027*lnM2 (T) R2 = 0,91 (-4,37) F-statistic = 226,80 (15,06) Durbin Watson = 1,49
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M hnh thu c khng c cc khuyt tt, ng thi h s R 2 kh cao. Cc kim nh thng k F cho thy, m hnh hon ton ph hp. H s hi quy ca bin M2 nhn gi tr dng v c ngha thng k. Nh vy, trong 1986 2010, CSTT trong nc c nh hng n gi c trong nc. C th, khi M2 tng 10%, th mc gi chung ca nn kinh t s tng 10, 27%. Kt lun trn hon ton ph hp vi cc l thuyt kinh t, trong di hn, gi c tng c nguyn nhn t tng MS ko di. 2.3 Phn tch nh lng mi quan h nhn qu gia MS v gi c Da vo cc s liu thu c, hi quy ln lt cc mi quan h gia cc bin tin t v gi theo phng trnh (2.4): LNCPI = 0.007881 - 0.206973*LNCPI(-2) + 0.440995*LNCPI(-1) + 0.334732*LNM2(-2) - 0.117132*LNM2(-1) RSS = 0.188356 F = 11.21660
LNCPI = 0.052132 + 0.093971*LNCPI(-2) + 0.315347*LNCPI(-1) RSS = 0.222715 F = 19.73879
Thc hin kim nh cc h s ca cc gi tr trong qu kh ca M2 bng kim nh F cho ta kt qu bc b gi thit H0. iu ny c ngha l khi lng M2 trong cc thi k trc c l nguyn nhn ca gi c. ng thi, kt qu phn tch nh lng t hai phng trnh trn ch ra rng, gi c mt hoc hai nm trong qu kh c tc ng nht nh n gi c thi im hin ti.
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KT LUN CHNG II
Da trn nn tng l lun v tc ng ca CSTT ti gi c trong ni dung chng I, ni dung chng II tp trung vo phn tch nh lng tc ng ca CSTT ti gi c Vit Nam trong thi k i Mi, giai on 1986 2010. Nghin cu thc nghim ny i hi vic xy dng m hnh s dng phn tch nh lng phi da trn mt nn tng l thuyt cng nh nhng bng chng nghin cu trc y mt cch vng chc v nht qun, trnh a ra nhng kt qu nghin cu thc nghim mang tnh nhn nh ch quan. T c th tm c nhng gii php thch hp v c c s cho vic n nh gi c trong tng lai. V vy, ni dung chng II cp c th cch ch nh m hnh phn tch thc nghim v tng kt cc kt qu nghin cu ca cc hc gi khc nhau trn th gii s dng cng m hnh trong cng trnh nghin cu ny. Kt qu phn tch nh lng tc ng ca CSTT ti gi c Vit Nam thi k 1986 2010 khng nh s ph hp ca m hnh c s dng. Bn cnh , chng II cng ch ra nhng nhn t ct li hnh thnh nn bin ng gi c trong tng giai on c th ca thi k i Mi. Vic tm ra nguyn nhn gy ra bin ng gi c trong trung v di hn l nhng c s quan trng xut cc gii php nng cao hiu lc ca CSTT nhm n nh gi c ti Vit Nam trong ni dung chng III.
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CHNG III: TNG KT V XUT CC GII PHP NHM NNG CAO HIU LC CA CHNH SCH TIN T
3.1Tng kt Kt qu phn tch nh lng cho thy m hnh (2.3) gii thch tt bin ng ca gi c di tc ng ca CSTT. Trong di hn, CSTT c tc ng rt mnh n gi c trong nc. Tuy nhin, trong hai giai on 1996 2004 v 2005 2010, CSTT khng gii thch c bin ng gi c trong nc, m phn ng gp ca cc nhn t khc ngoi CSTT gii thch tt hn mc bin ng ca mc gi chung. Trong giai on 1986 1995, CSTT tc ng rt mnh ti s bin ng ca gi c trong nc, bi v trong giai on ny lng MS tng nhanh. Nguyn nhn ca vic MS mnh vo giai on ny chnh l vic NHNN tin hnh in tin ti tr cho bi chi ngn sch ca Chnh Ph. Giai on 1996 2004, CSTT khng cn tc ng n bin ng gi c na. Trong giai on ny, CSTT c iu hnh linh hot hn cc thi k trc vi s ra i ca Lut NHNN nm 1997. S dng bin gi trong qu trnh phn tch nh lng trong giai on ny khng nh s ra i ca Lut NHNN Vit Nam lm gim mc gi chung ca nn kinh t. Nh vy, s c lp tng i ca NHNN Vit Nam c vai tr quan trng trong vic bnh n gi c trong giai on ny. Bin ng mc gi c trong giai on 2005 2010 cng khng bt ngun t CSTT ch ng trong nc. Phn tch nh lng bng bin gi HOINHAP trong
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giai on ny ch ra s bin ng ca tnh hnh kinh t th gii c tc ng mnh n gi c trong nc. Vic s dng bin gi HOINHAP trong cc phn tch nh lng giai on ny cho thy Vit Nam ngy cng hi nhp vo nn kinh t ton cu. V s trao i hng ha, dch v v vn gia nn kinh t trong nc vi nn kinh t th gii ngy cng tng, nn tn hiu v gi cng lan truyn nhanh hn gia nn kinh t trong nc v phn cn li ca th gii. Ni cch khc, t gi hi oi knh trung gian truyn ti s bin ng mc gi th gii v trong nc l nguyn nhn gy ra nhng bin ng v gi c trong giai on 2005 2010. Theo lut NHNN Vit Nam 2010, mc tiu n nh tr tin ng, kim ch lm pht vn tip tc c coi l mc tiu hng u ca vic iu hnh CSTT. Tuy nhin, lun c s mu thun khi la chn mc tiu tng trng v lm pht trong iu hnh CSTT. Sau rt nhiu nm phn u c nhng thnh tch vt bc trong tng trng kinh t, u tin s mt ca Chnh ph Vit Nam by gi khng cn l tng trng cao, m l chng lm pht. Bi v, nu lm pht cao, th lm pht khng nhng s trit tiu tng trng m nguy him hn, lm pht tip tc ko di v tng mc trm trng s lm v cc bong bng kinh t. Khi , lm pht s gy ra nhiu hu qu tiu cc cho nn kinh t v cho x hi. Mun tng trng cao v n nh th iu kin tin quyt l khng lm pht tip tc ko di v ngy cng trm trng60. Nh vy, vic iu hnh CSTT mt cch hiu qu c vai tr rt quan trng trong vic bnh n gi c n nh cc mc tiu kinh t v m. Da trn cc tng kt qua qu trnh nghin cu tc ng ca CSTT ti gi c trong thi k i Mi Vit Nam, cng trnh nghin cu xin xut hai gii php nhm nng cao hiu lc
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ca CSTT trong thi gian sp ti: nng cao tnh c lp ca NHTW v iu hnh chnh sch t gi hi oi chng lm pht. 3.2 Nng cao tnh c lp ca NHNN Vit Nam 3.2.1 C s l thuyt cho vic nng cao tnh c lp ca NHNN Vit Nam Tnh c lp ca NHTW mt quc gia th hin trn cc mt sau61: Th nht, mc c lp trong quyt nh cng c CSTT (instrument independence) v mc tiu CSTT (goal independence). Theo , mt NHTW c tnh c lp cao khi n c thng tin ton quyn quyt nh cc vn v hoch nh chnh sch v s dng cc cng c thch hp iu hnh CSTT. Th hai, mc c lp v ti chnh trong hot ng. Theo , mt NHTW c tnh c lp cao khi n t b rng buc v kim sot v ti chnh; Th ba, mc c lp v nhn s ca NHTW. Ni cch khc, vic b nhim nhn lc ca NHTW do c quan no quyt nh. iu ny ty thuc vo m hnh t chc ca NHTW. Hin nay, trn th gii c hai m hnh t chc v qun l NHTW, l m hnh NHTW trc thuc chnh ph v m hnh NHTW c lp vi chnh ph. M hnh NHTW trc thuc Chnh ph l m hnh trong NHTW l mt b phn ca Chnh ph, chu s chi phi trc tip ca chnh ph v nhn s, ti chnh v cc quyt nh lin quan n thc thi chnh sch tin t, ng thi NHTW t chu trch nhim v mi hot ng ca mnh trc Chnh ph. u im ca m hnh ny l Chnh ph c th phi hp ng b cc chnh sch ti kha v tin t nhm n nh nn kinh t v m. Hn ch ca m hnh ny l NHTW s th ng
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Eijfinger, Sylvester C.W (1997), Independent Central Banks and Economic Performance, The International Library of Critical Writing in Economics, An Elgar Reference Collection, ISBN 1-85898-447-5, tr.3-21.
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trong vic thc hin chnh sch tin t. Bi v, NHTW l mt b phn ca Chnh ph, nn n rt d b Chnh ph p t cc mnh lnh hnh chnh, c bit l vic in tin nhm b p bi chi ngn sch Nh nc. Lc , NHTW khng th ch ng trong vic iu tit MS v gp rt nhiu kh khn trong vic m bo s n nh gi tr ng ni t. M hnh ny c p dng Nga, Trung Quc, Vit Nam cc nn kinh t cng nghip mi (NIEs) nh Singapore, Hn Quc62. M hnh NHTW c lp v Chnh ph l m hnh trong NHTW l mt c quan c lp vi c quan hnh php v trc thuc Quc hi; NHTW t chu trch nhim v hot ng ca mnh trc Quc hi. u im ca m hnh ny l NHTW c ton quyn xy dng v quyt nh cc CSTT trong tng thi k m khng chu p lc t chi tiu ngn sch, hay cc p lc chnh tr hoc mnh lnh hnh chnh ca Chnh ph. Nh , NHTW c th m bo c cc mc tiu ca CSTT. Tuy nhin, hn ch ca m hnh ny l tnh trng xung t trong vic s dng CSTT ca NHTW v chnh sch ti kha ca Chnh ph, hoc phi hp c hai chnh sch trn trong vic iu tit nn kinh t v m. M hnh ny c mt s nc nh Hoa K, c, lin minh Chu u p dng63. Vic la chn m hnh NHTW c lp hay ph thuc Chnh ph hon ton ty thuc vo iu kin c th ca mi nc. Tuy nhin, thc t iu hnh CSTT ca NHTW cc nc cho thy tnh c lp ca NHTW cng cao th cc ch tiu v m ca nn kinh t cng c ci thin64. Ngoi ra, ngn hng NHTW cng c
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Paul Somer-Poelm (2006), The relationship between the central bank and the government, tr. 45-55.Truy cp ngy 23 thng 05 nm 2010 t www.bis.org/events/cbcd06d.pdf. 63 Paul Somer-Poelm (2006), The relationship between the central bank and the government, tr. 55-61.Truy cp ngy 23 thng 05 nm 2010 t www.bis.org/events/cbcd06d.pdf. 64 Alesina, Alberto, v Lawrence H. Summers (1993). Central Bank Independence and Macroeconomic Performance: Some Comparative Evidence, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 25 (5), tr. 151-162.
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c lp trong vic quyt nh s dng cng c CSTT, th hiu qu ca vic thc thi CSTT cng cao65. Bn cnh , Rogoff (1985) khng nh NHTW cng c lp th cng mang li lm pht thp. Ni cch khc, vi tnh c lp trong vic iu hnh CSTT, mt NHTW s c quyn la chn mt CSTT vi mc tiu n nh gi c v s s dng cc cng c ca CSTT t c mc tiu . Rogoff gii thch rng, tnh c lp ca NHTW s c ngha trong vic kim ch lm pht nu x hi la chn mt NHTW c hm mc tiu (objective function) khng ging hm mc tiu ca x hi. Thay vo , NHTW s t t trng vo mc tiu n nh gi c hn so vi mc tiu n nh sn lng (chnh sch ti u) v t t trng vo mc tiu n nh sn lng thp hn so vi t trng ca x hi (NHTW ti u). M hnh ca Rogoff gm hai bc66: Bc 1: La chn CSTT ti u Hm thit hi ca x hi (the social loss function) LS ph thuc vo lm pht v lch ca sn lng so vi mc ti u hay mc m x hi mong mun (socially desired level):
Vi p l gi c, h l t trng x hi t vo mc tiu n nh sn lng, y l sn lng, l mc sn lng ti u hay mc m x hi mong mun (optimal di dng l-ga-rt.
output level hay socially desired level). Cc bin s p, y,
n gin ha, ch s thi gian khng c a vo m hnh. Sn lng y chnh

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Forder, James (2000). Traps in the Measurement of Independence and Accountability of Central Banks, University of Oxford Economics Series Working Papers 023, Oxford: University of Oxford. Truy cp ngy 10 thng 06 nm 2010, t http://www.economics.ox.ac.uk/Research/WorkPapers.asp. 66 Mai Thu Hin (2010), Vn c lp ca NHTW trong vic iu hnh CSTT nhm mc tiu n nh gi c, Tp ch kinh t i ngoi, 39, tr. 44-46.
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lch vi sn lng t nhin (sn lng trong trng thi ton dng nhn cng) mt lng t l nghch vi mc lng thc (real wage) l w p: (3.2) Trong , mc lng danh ngha l: w = Ep (3.3)
Vi Ep l mc gi c k vng (expected price level), z l c sc i vi sn lng v k vng ca c sc vi sn lng Ez = 0 Thay phng trnh (3.3) vo phng trnh (3.2), thu c phng trnh: (3.4) Thay phng trnh (3.4) vo phng trnh (3.1), ly vi phn hai v theo p v t dLS/dp= 0, phng trnh (3.1) tr thnh: (3.5) Sau khi ly k vng 2 v ca phng trnh (3.5) vi Ez = 0 khi z l bin ngoi sinh, v Ec = c khi c khng i, thu c phng trnh sau:
(3.6)
Thay phng trnh (3.6) vo phng trnh (3.5) v gii phng trnh (3.5) theo p, mc gi ti u l: : CSTT ti u (3.7)
Thay phng trnh (3.7) vo phng trnh (3.4) thu c phng trnh sau:
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(3.8) Trng hp l tng, khi thit hi x hi bng 0 (LS = 0), tc p = 0 v , khi v z = 0. th s xut hin lm pht p > 0.
Nu t mc tiu v sn lng
h cng ln th p cng tng. Ni cch khc, nu x hi t t trng cao vo mc tiu n nh sn lng hoc t t trng vo mc tiu n nh gi c thp hn mc tiu n nh sn lng th lm pht s xy ra. Lm pht c th gim c thng qua la chn mt CSTT vi h thp (hay s la chn mt CSTT vi t trng t vo mc tiu n nh sn lng thp hn mc tiu n nh gi c). Tuy nhin, h khng c php qu thp, v khi sn lng y s chu tc ng mnh ca c sc bn cung z (xem phng trnh (3.8)). Gi tr ti u ca h s c xc nh trong bc th hai sau y. Bc 2: La chn NHTW ti u Gi t trng t vo mc tiu n nh sn lng ca x hi v NHTW ln lt l hg v hb. Hm thit hi x hi d kin (the expected social loss) ELS di gc x hi l: (3.9) Hm thit hi ELS ph thuc vo mc gi c pb m NHTW la chn v mc sn lng yb tng ng vi mc gi c (gi tr ti u ca pb v yb c xc nh bc 1). Gi tr ti u ca hb c xc nh ti phng trnh (3.10) bng cch thay cc gi tr ca pb v yb phng trnh (3.7) v (3.8) vo phng trnh (3.9):
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Khi , x hi s la chn NHTW vi hb sao cho hm thit hi x hi l nh nht (mc d x hi c th c gi tr ti u khc hg). Gi tr ca hb c tnh bng cch trin khai phng trnh (3.9)
(3.11)
Ly k vng phng trnh (3.11) vi Ez = 0 v Ez2 = sinh; Ec = c khi c l hng s, thu c phng trnh:
vi z l bin ngoi
(3.12) Ly vi phn hai v ca phng trnh (3.12) theo hb v t dELS/dhb = 0, c:
Gi s vi mc tiu v sn lng
, gi tr ti u hb phi p ng hg -hb
> 0. iu ny c ngha l x hi s la chn mt NHTW c lp c t trng t vo mc tiu n nh sn lng thp hn t trng ca x hi (NHTW ti u). m bo t trng hb thp hn hg v khng b p lc g, th NHTW phi c lp.
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Tm li, m hnh ca Rogoff mt ln na khng nh thng qua vic NHTW c t do la chn CSTT vi mc tiu n nh gi c cao hn mc tiu n nh sn lng (bc 1) v t trng t vo mc tiu n nh sn lng thp hn t trng ca x hi (bc 2), NHTW c kh nng mang li lm pht thp, t n nh s bin ng bt li ca gi c. 3.2.2 Tnh c lp ca NHNN Vit Nam hin nay Cc phn tch nh lng ch ra rng, vic NHNN Vit Nam c c tnh c lp tng i so vi nhng nm trc 1997 c nhng tc ng tch cc ti vic n nh gi c. Tuy nhin, xt tnh c lp ca mt NHTW hin i da theo ba tiu ch l c lp v nhn s, ti chnh, v CSTT, NHNN Vit Nam vn l mt NHTW cha c tnh c lp. iu th hin cc lun im di y. 3.2.2.1 Tnh c lp ca NHNN Vit Nam v nhn s Theo lut T chc Chnh ph v Ngh nh ca Chnh ph s 86/2002/NCP, NHNN Vit Nam l mt c quan ngang B trc thuc Chnh ph, m nhn c chc nng qun l Nh nc v chc nng ca mt NHTW. Nh vy, Chnh ph c quyn lc ti cao trong vic b nhim v bi nhim chc danh Thng c cng nh cc thnh vin ca ban lnh o NHNN. Do , NHNN khng nhng khng c lp vi Chnh ph trong quyt nh nhn s cho chnh mnh, m cn chu s qun l ton din ca Chnh ph. Hn na, kiu m hnh t chc ny lm cc chc nng ca mt NHTW v chc nng qun l Nh nc khng c phn nh r rng. Trn thc t, chc nng qun l Nh nc c nhn mnh qu mc lm cho chc nng l mt NHTW b m nht, thm ch b chn ln. Cu trc b my ca NHNN Vit Nam hin nay bao gm nhiu chi nhnh v c phn b theo a gii hnh chnh m
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khng ph thuc vo yu cu qun l tin t v hot ng ngn hng tng a phng khng pht huy c chc nng iu tit v m ca mt NHTW67. 3.2.2.2 Tnh c lp ca NHNN Vit Nam v ti chnh NHNN Vit Nam, hin nay, cng khng ch ng v ngun ti chnh thi hnh cc mnh lnh ca mnh. T nm 2000 n nay, cc nh ch ti chnh phi ngn hng pht trin vi quy m tng i ln vi s ra i ca cc qu h tr u t, qu tit kim bu in, h thng bo him, v s gia tng tin gi Kho bc ti cc NHTM, c tc ng ln ti cung tin nhng NHNN Vit Nam khng kim sot c. Cc hot ng huy ng v cho vay ca cc t chc ny t ti khong 20% d n huy ng v cho vay ca cc t chc tn dng, cn tin gi ca Kho bc ti cc NHTM chim n 80% tin gi ca Kho bc ti NHNN Vit Nam. Theo quy nh v thng k tin t ca IMF, tin gi ca Chnh ph c tnh cht l khon tin chi tiu c k hoch, nn n khng c tc ng n li sut th trng. V vy, khon tin ny ny khng c hch ton vo MS, m phi c hch ton vo bn ti sn c (phn trn) ca bng cn i tin t ton ngnh vi du m (-). Do , tin gi ca Chnh ph cng ln th M2 cng gim. Tuy nhin, Vit Nam, tin gi ca Chnh ph li c gi ti cc NHTM, cho nn s tin ny tham gia vo qu trnh to tin ca h thng NHTM. V vy, s tin gi ca Chnh ph nh hng mnh ti cung cu vn v li sut trn th trng m NHNN Vit Nam khng th kim sot c. Cho nn, khi cn can thip vo th trng tin t cn i cung cu bng OMO, NHNN Vit Nam khng ch ng c v ti chnh thc hin nghip v ny.
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3.2.2.3 Tnh c lp ca NHNN Vit Nam trong thc thi CSTT NHNN Vit Nam cha c lp trong vic thc thi CSTT. iu ny th hin trn hai phng din: cha c lp trong vic la chn mc tiu CSTT v cha c lp trong vic s dng cng c thc thi CSTT. Phn tch di y cho thy r iu ny. Th nht, NHNN Vit Nam cha c lp trong vic quyt nh mc tiu CSTT. Lut NHNN Vit Nam nm 2010 tip tc mt ln na khng nh NHNN Vit Nam thc hin CSTT vi cc mc tiu do Quc hi ph duyt. Trn thc t, CSTT a mc tiu l theo ui mc tiu tng trng cao trong n nh. Tuy nhin, tng trng v lm pht l hai mc tiu c bin ng tri chiu. Tc l, nn kinh t tng trng nhng khng mong mun lm pht cao. Quan h lnh mnh gia hai bin s ny l tng trng kinh t cn i lin mt t l lm pht c kim sot ch khng song hnh vi tnh trng lm pht cao. Nh vy, Vit Nam, bn cht ca CSTT a mc tiu l ch trng vo tc tng trng, hy sinh mc tiu lm pht vi lp lun rng tng trng cao phi chp nhn lm pht v lm pht khng c g ng s nn n vn thp hn tc tng trng. Nh vy, mc tiu cui cng ca CSTT cha r rng. Chnh iu ny lm NHNN Vit Nam lng tng khi thc thi CSTT. Ngoi ra, vic NHNN Vit Nam khng c c lp la chn mc tiu CSTT trong mt CSTT a mc tiu lm cho hiu qu ca CSTT b hn ch rt nhiu khi kim sot lm pht phi tin t. Vit Nam, yu t lm pht tm l lm pht phi tin t - kh mnh. iu c ngha l, gi c tng ln khng xut pht t yu t chi ph m ch yu t tm l n theo gi cc hng kha khc. NHNN Vit Nam cng mt lc b chi phi bi rt nhiu cc mc tiu khc nhau c ra ng thi bi Chnh ph v Quc hi, thm ch, cc mc tiu ny mu thun nhau v kh c th t c cng mt lc. V d, mc tiu tng trng v lm pht nm
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nay c Quc hi v Chnh ph ra l 7% v 6,5%68. Do , nhn dn s ngm hiu l Quc hi v Chnh ph s phi hi sinh mt trong hai ch tiu t c ch tiu cn li, nhng khng xc nh c ch tiu no l mc tiu cui cng c la chn. Cho nn, nhn dn s phn on cc ng thi ca Chnh ph v Quc hi v c hnh vi tng ng. Nh vy, Chnh ph v Quc hi li tr thnh ngi dn dt th trng tin t ch khng phi l NHNN Vit Nam. V th, yu t a mc tiu khng nhng khin nhn dn khng xc nh c nh hng ca CSTT, m cn khin h khng hiu c c quan no mi thc s iu hnh CSTT. iu ny thc s to ra tm l bt n trong nhn dn. Do , cc chnh sch kim ch lm pht tm l cng yu hn, bi v, cc cng c ca CSTT li kh c th iu tit kiu lm pht phi tin t ny. Trong khi , chnh yu t tm l rt nhy cm ca nhn dn Vit Nam vi cc ng thi ca cc c quan chc nng li l mt cng c c lc chng li lm pht phi tin t. Theo cc nh kinh t hc ca trng phi tn c in v phi Keynes mi, mc gi chung trong nn kinh t s tr v v tr cn bng ban u hoc bin ng rt t nu nhn dn c nim tin (k vng) rng cc chnh sch bnh n gi c s c thc hin69. Nh vy, c c nim tin ca nhn dn v nhanh chng trit tiu hin tng lm pht tm l, cc c quan chc nng phi nht qun trong ng li iu hnh CSTT. iu c ngha l, nu NHNN Vit Nam l c quan duy nht iu hnh CSTT v theo ui mc tiu n nh gi c m n la chn, th lm pht tm l s nhanh chng c y li. Nh vy, tnh c lp tng i ca NHNN Vit Nam khng ch to c s cho vic kim sot cc din
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V Vn Minh (2010), Kim ch cc yu t gy lm pht tm l{. Truy cp ngy 25 thng 06 nm 2010, t
http://dddn.com.vn/20100415101415736cat81/ban-cach-go-ap-luc-lam-phat.htm.
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bin gi c xut pht t yu t tin t m cn kim ch c cc bin ng gi c c nguyn nhn t cc yu t phi tin t. Th hai, NHNN Vit Nam cha c lp trong vic s dng cng c CSTT. Trong nhng nm gn y, cho vay Chnh ph rng trn bng cn i ti sn ca NHNN Vit Nam v trn bng cn i tin t ton nghnh bin ng mnh v Chnh ph thng xuyn pht hnh tri phiu v tn phiu. Hot ng vay vn ca Chnh ph khin NHNN Vit Nam b ng trong vic pht hnh tin v hn ch kh nng iu tit ca NHNN Vit Nam i vi lng tin trong nn kinh t. Bn cnh , vic NHNN Vit Nam lun thiu thng tin cn thit, thiu c ch s dng cc cng c ca CSTT mt cch hiu qu th hin rt r tnh ph thuc ca NHNN Vit Nam. C th, hng nm, vic tnh ton mc cung tin, cn i lng tin cn bm vo hay rt ra khi lu thng l nhim v ca NHNN Vit Nam, nhng thi gian tin hnh cc hot ng u thu cc chng khon n, cng nh quy nh mc li sut ca cc chng khon Chnh ph li do B Ti chnh c lp thc hin. Mc d NHNN Vit Nam c s phi hp vi B Ti chnh trong vic cung cp cc thng tin v ngn sch phc v vic d bo tin t, nhng vic cung cp thng tin v s liu cn cha y v kp thi. Do , n hn ch n vic d bo v xy dng CSTT. Nguyn nhn ca tnh trng ny l do thiu s hng dn c ch phi hp thng tin ca cc vn bn di lut70. 3.2.3 Cc gii php nng cao tnh c lp ca NHNN Vit Nam Cc phn tch nh lng cho thy vai tr quan trng ca tnh c lp ca NHNN Vit Nam trong giai on 1996 2004. ng thi, qua vic phn tch nhng c c l thuyt cho vic nng cao tnh c lp ca NHTW c vai tr quan trng trong vic nng cao tnh hiu lc ca CSTT, cng nh phn tch thc tin
70
84
tnh c lp ca NHNN Vit Nam hin nay, vic nng cao tnh c lp ca NHTW l iu cn thit. Tuy nhin, ci cch b my iu hnh v m l gii php di hn c th mt hng nm tin hnh, nn trong phm vi cng trnh nghin cu ny, tc gi xut cc gii php nhm nng cao tnh c lp ca NHNN Vit Nam trong thi gian sp ti nh sau. 3.2.3.1 Nng cao tnh c lp v nhn s ca NHNN Vit Nam V NHNN Vit Nam, hin nay, vn l mt c quan ca Chnh ph, nn NHNN Vit Nam cn nng cao s t ch trong vic tuyn m nhn ti gip vic cho ban lnh o. Ngoi ra, cn bi b iu khon yu cu NHNN Vit Nam phi tm ng cho ngn sch Nh nc, v khng tr thnh c quan in tin cho Chnh ph ti tr thm ht ngn sch. Thay vo , Chnh ph nn t mnh ci thin hiu qu u t, nht l u t xy dng c bn. Mt khc, Chnh ph cng nn t huy ng vn thng qua th trng tin t v th trng vn iu ha chi tiu ph hp. iu ny s gip NHNN Vit Nam c tnh c lp dn dn vi c quan hnh php. 3.2.3.2 Nng cao tnh c lp v ti chnh ca NHNN Vit Nam Chnh ph cn c s ch o cc B, Ngnh c hot ng trn th trng tin t v th trng vn c trch nhim gi bo co thng k tnh hnh thc hin u t tn dng hng nm v nhu cu u t tn dng hng nm cho NHNN Vit Nam. T , NHNN c th xc nh c mc tng trng tn dng hng nm ca tt c cc nh ch ti chnh trong nn kinh t, v c ngn sch tr b ph hp trong trng hp cn can thip vo th trng tin t v th trng vn. Ngoi ra, Quc hi cn hon thin h thng vn bn hng dn vic phi hp thng tin gia B Ti Chnh v NHNN Vit Nam. Theo , quy nh NHNN Vit Nam l c quan duy nht thc hin bn cc chng khon n v B Ti Chnh
85
l c quan duy nht xc nh li sut ca cc tri phiu cng nh khi lng pht hnh trong tng thi k da trn c s trao i vi NHNN Vit Nam. 3.2.3.3 Nng cao tnh c lp trong thc thi CSTT ca NHNN Vit Nam Trong ngn hn, Chnh ph cn cho php NHNN Vit Nam c lp trong vic la chn cng c chnh sch trong tng thi k. Mc tiu di hn thng nht Quc hi ban hnh. S c lp tng i ca NHNN Vit Nam s cho php ngn hng ny ch ng iu tit th trng trong tng thi k m khng cn phi ch i s cho php ca Chnh ph trong nhng chnh sch ca mnh; hoc la chn mc tiu ca mnh nu h thy rng cn thit v dn dt th trng i theo. Sau khi tnh c lp ca NHNN Vit Nam c nng cao, Chnh ph v Quc hi cn c c ch NHNN Vit Nam t xc nh mc tiu di hn ca CSTT. Bnh n gi c, chng lm pht phi l mc tiu c bn v di hn ca CSTT. V ngn hn, mc tiu tng trng v cng n vic lm c th c cn nhc khi khng c mu thun vi vic t c mc tiu lm pht trong di hn. Khng ch NHNN m c Chnh ph cn tuyt i tn trng mc tiu lm pht t ra lm tng s tn nhim ca nhn dn i vi CSTT, t ci thin hiu lc ca CSTT. Bn cnh , NHNN Vit Nam phi xy dng knh thng tin chnh thng v cp nht t tr s ti cc chi nhnh v ton th trng, cc a bn tp trung nhiu hot ng tin t ti mt s thnh ph ln, kp thi cung cp cc thng tin cn thit v mc tiu, cng c ca CSTT ti nhn dn. Knh thng tin thng sut ny c tc dng nhanh chng ngn chn c hin tng lm pht tm l nhm trnh hin tng tng gi tt nc theo ma nhm trc li theo xu hng ca th trng. ng thi, knh thng tin ca NHNN Vit Nam chnh l tn hiu nhn dn c c s hnh thnh k vng vo chnh sch bnh n gi c ca NHNN Vit
86
Nam. T , c doanh nghip v nhn dn u c cc quyt nh u t v tiu dng hp l lm cho chnh sch n nh gi c c hiu qu hn. Mc d tnh c lp ca NHNN Vit Nam c nhn mnh, nhng iu hon ton khng ph nh s cn thit s phi hp cht ch gia CSTT vi cc chnh sch ti kha ca Chnh ph trong vic iu hnh nn kinh t. S phi hp gia chnh sch ti kha v chnh sch tin t m bo cc mc tiu ca cc chnh sch khng mu thun nhau v tc ng ca chnh sch ny khng trung ha tc ng ca chnh sch kia. 3.3 iu hnh chnh sch t gi hi oi nhm bnh n gi c Vit Nam 3.3.1 C s l thuyt iu hnh chnh sch t gi hi oi nhm bnh n gi c Cc phn tch nh lng v phn tch thc tin nn kinh t nc ta trong giai on 2005 2010 ch ra rng, bin ng gi c xut pht t cc bin ng t bn ngoi. T gi hi oi l knh trung gian truyn ti tc ng ca nn kinh t ton cu ti nn kinh t Vit Nam v lm tng mc gi trong nc.V vy, khi Vit Nam hi nhp su hn vo nn kinh t th gii, mt chnh sch t gi hi oi hi oi linh hot l cn thit bnh n gi c trong nc. Bi v, mt t gi linh hot mang li nhng li ch: Ch t gi hi oi linh hot s to tin cho VND ln gi tng i so vi cc ngoi t trong mt phm vi nht nh. V th, gi nguyn vt liu nhp khu phc v cho sn xut, kinh doanh nh xng, du, st thp s gim, t hn ch tnh trng nhp khu lm pht vo Vit Nam. Ngoi ra, VND tng gi s tng cung hng ni a, gp phn gim khan him hng ha trong nc hin nay. Khi lng cung hng tng, hin tng mt cn i tin hng c khc phc, nn mc gi chung ca nn kinh t cng s gim.
87
Ch t gi hi oi linh hot s gp phn ci tri cho CSTT trong nc, gip NHNN Vit Nam thot khi i mt vi b ba bt kh thi - t do ti khon vn, c nh t gi, v CSTT c lp71. Vic linh hot t gi hi oi s gip NHNN Vit Nam hn ch c lng tin cung ng vo th trng v khng phi gn cht vi ngha v mua li ngun vn ngoi t. Do , chnh sch t gi hi oi linh hot khng nhng hn ch gi c tng c nguyn nhn xut pht t MS tng, m cn cho php NHNN Vit Nam c th s dng t do hn cc cng c ca CSTT khc nh li sut v OMO i ph vi nhng c sc ni a nh thin ti, dch bnh. Ngoi ra, gi tr VND n nh so vi cc ng ngoi t s lm li sut ca ng ni t n nh hn, ng thi lm gim thiu bin ng gi c trong nc. Bi v, khi NHNN Vit Nam tng lng tin cung ng mua lng ngoi t d tha nhm duy tr mc t gi hi oi danh ngha, mc gi chung trong nn kinh t s tng cao. iu ny s khin li sut danh ngha buc phi tng theo duy tr li sut thc dng. Li sut tng cao tip tc gy p lc ln gi vi VND. Khi , NHNN Vit Nam c hai gii php can thip. Th nht, NHNN Vit Nam tip tc can thip vo th trng ngoi hi gi t gi danh ngha. Hu qu ca hnh ng ny lm trm trng hn tnh trng gi c leo thang, bi v vng tun hon t gi gi c li sut li tip tc. Th hai, NHNN Vit Nam s dng mnh lnh hnh chnh can thip vo chnh sch li sut tin gi ca cc NHTM. Hu qu ca qu trnh can thip ny l li sut cc NHTM mt n nh, lm cc NHTM cng thng tnh thanh khon, v gia tng nguy c sp ca h thng cc NHTM. Bn cnh , t gi hi oi linh hot s gim thiu hin tng la ha nn kinh t. Trong thi gian qua, lm pht tng cao khin li sut tin gi m, ng
71
88
thi, VND li yu, nn nhn dn tm cch i ti sn ca mnh sang vng v cc ngoi t mnh khc. Hnh ng ny khng nhng tip tc lm VND mt gi m cn lm tng lng ngoi t lu hnh trong nhn dn. Do , NHNN Vit Nam gp kh khn khi kim sot lng tin thnh phn ny trong MB, t , lm suy gim hiu lc ca CSTT. V vy, mt ch t gi hi oi linh hot l cn thit gip duy tr v ci thin gi tr ng ni t, lm gim hin tng la ha trong nn kinh t v nng cao hiu lc ca CSTT. 3.3.2 Thc tin iu hnh chnh sch t gi hi oi Vit Nam Hin nay, Vit Nam ang duy tr ch t gi hi oi th ni c iu tit. Mc d cc nh qun l tin t u cho rng, ch t gi hi oi hin nay l ch khng neo vo bt k ng ngoi t no m da vo r tin t. Tuy nhin, trn thc t 80% - 90% cc giao dch trong cn cn thanh ton ca Vit Nam bng USD72. Do , thc t ny i hi d tr ngoi t ca NHNN, thanh ton thng mi quc t, vn qun l n nc ngoi cng nh huy ng u t nc ngoi trc tip vo Vit Nam u c xc nh trn c s USD. V nguyn tc iu hnh, t gi VND/USD linh hot theo tn hiu th trng v c mc tiu r rng nhm mc tiu l khuyn khch xut khu v hn ch nhp khu. Lng d tr ngoi hi quc gia cn cha tp trung v mt mi l NHNN Vit Nam thc s khin kh nng kim sot ngoi t trong nn kinh t ca NHNN Vit Nam cn hn ch. Tnh n ht nm 2009, khong hn 20 t USD v 500 tn vng ang c gm gi trong dn, gi tr c ghi vo sai s trong cn i cn cn thanh ton nm 2009 l 9,7 t USD73. Chnh lch gia t gi chnh thc v th trng trong mt s thi im l kh cao. C hai yu t trn khin vic tnh ton
72
i hc Kinh t, i hc Quc gia H Ni (2008), Lm pht Vit Nam hin nay Nguyn nhn v gii php, NXB i hc quc gia H Ni, H Ni, tr. 130. 73 V Tr Thnh (2010), Bn cch g p lc lm pht. Truy cp ngy 13 thng 06 nm 2010, t http://dddn.com.vn/20100415101415736cat81/ban-cach-go-ap-luc-lam-phat.htm.
89
cn i cn cn thnh ton v cn i t gi kh khn hn, nn gin tip to ra nhp khu lm pht trong tng thi im. Trong bi cnh m ca nn kinh t, vic NHNN Vit Nam c gng qun l t gi trong khi phi duy tr n nh nhng mc tiu v m lm cho CSTT gn nh ph thuc. Thc tin t nm 2007 2008 cho thy, bi v NHNN Vit Nam n lc bo v t gi khi m lng ngoi t vo nn kinh t trong giai on ny tng t bin nn MS phi tng ln. Trong tun th ba ca thng 2 nm 2008, NHNN Vit Nam s dng 140.000 t VND mua 9 t USD trong nm 2007 m cha kp thu v ht. Mc d ngay sau , NHNN Vit Nam s dng can thip v trng bng quyt nh yu cu 41 NHTM phi mua tn phiu bt buc theo kiu mnh lnh hnh chnh vi li sut 7,8% vi tng gi tr l 20.300 t VND 74, nhng cc bin php hnh chnh d c mang li thnh cng nht thi trong vic n nh cung tin nhng khng bao gi gii quyt c tn gc vn . 3.3.3 Cc gii php nng cao hot ng iu hnh chnh sch t gi hi oi nhm bnh n gi c Vit Nam 3.3.3.1 Nng cao tnh c lp ca NHNN Vit Nam T gi hi oi duy tr ch th ni c kim sot cn c iu kin tin quyt l NHNN Vit Nam cn c c lp v CSTT. Cc bin php mnh lnh hnh chnh ang c s dng nh mt cng c can thip ca NHNN Vit Nam nhm duy tr n nh t gi, trong khi phi n lc n nh gi c v thc hin mc tiu tng trng kinh t, khng cn ph hp khi nc ta hi nhp vi h thng ti chnh ton cu. V vy, bin php duy nht t c cc mc tiu nu trn l tch chnh sch t gi hi oi ra khi CSTT. Theo , chnh sch t gi linh hot hn s t ng iu chnh mt bng gi trong nc v mc gi th gii m khng
74
90
gy ra cc xo trn ln trong nn kinh t. Cn NHNN Vit Nam c la chn cc cng c CSTT t c cc mc tiu ca CSTT trong tng thi k cho thch hp. Theo nguyn tc b ba bt kh thi, ti khon vn s khng c t do. iu ny s gp phn hn ch cc tc ng tiu cc t nn kinh t th gii khi nc ta thc hin cc chuyn i v chnh sch t gi hi oi v CSTT. to s linh hot trong ch t gi hi oi hin nay, vic m rng bin giao dch t gi l c li cho s pht trin ca th trng ti chnh cn non tr Vit Nam. y cng l mt trong nhng la chn tt cho bi cnh Vit Nam hin nay v c ngha tch cc cho qun l v m trong trung hn, khi Vit Nam t do ha ch t gi hi oi. Cn cc bin php nng cao tnh c lp ca NHNN Vit Nam c cp n trong ni dung phn trc. 3.3.3.2 Tng cng cc bin php kt hi ngoi t v vng Chnh sch t gi hi oi ch mang li hiu qu nu n thc s kim sot c lng ngoi t, v vy, cc bin php tng cng kt hi ngoi t v vng l cn thit. Do , cc t chc tn dng cn hn ch cho vay ngoi t bng cch hn ch i tng vay ngoi t. Nu cc doanh nghip thc s c nhu cu ngoi t, h c th vay bng tin ng, sau , mua ngoi t. ng thi, NHNN Vit Nam c th yu cu cc t chc tng t l trch lp d phng ri ro vi khon u t tn dng bng ngoi t. Bn cnh , cn quy nh mt t l cho vay bng ngoi t trn tng ngun vn huy ng bng ngoi t. Cch lm ny s thc hin c mc tiu gim mc la ha nn kinh t, ng thi, to s an ton trong hot ng tn dng ca nn kinh t. Ngoi ra, hin nay, cc cng ty ti chnh khng b quy nh trng thi ngoi hi nn m rng vic cho vay bng ngoi t. V vy, hon thin cc gii php chng la ha, NHNN Vit Nam cn quy nh trng thi ngoi t cho cc cng ty ti chnh hn ch vay mn ngoi t. Bn cnh vic chng la ha, NHNN cng cn c l trnh tng bc chng vng ha - hin v ang tnh trng kh kim sot. Theo , NHNN Vit Nam cn ban hnh
91
quy ch qun l cc hot ng kinh doanh vng ming, vng thanh ton trong lnh th Vit Nam. c bit l trong bi cnh hi nhp ca nn kinh t vi th gii ang ngy cng su v rng. hu thun cho cc gii php ni trn, Chnh ph cn ch o cc B chc nng c c ch gim st k c c ch cng ch cht ch kim sot vic s dng ngoi t trong thanh ton, lu thng hng ha, dch v ni a; trong tn dng ngoi t v trong vic xut, nhp khu v bun bn vng thanh ton, vng trn ti khon, vng thi trn th trng vng. Hot ng kinh doanh vng ming, vng thanh ton trong lnh th, sit cht c ch tn dng vng cng vi c ch qun l ngoi hi v iu hnh th trng ngoi t phi do NHNN Vit Nam thng nht m nhim.
KT LUN CHNG III

Ni dung chng III cp n cc gii php nhm nng cao hiu lc ca CSTT trong thi gian ti ti Vit Nam, cn c trn cc kt lun c rt ra trong qu trnh phn tch nh lng tc ng ca CSTT ti gi c Vit Nam thi k 1986 2010. Cc gii php c a ra trn c s cc phn tch li ch ca chng v mt l thuyt cng nh trn c s nh gi thc tin vic thc thi cc gii php ny ti Vit Nam. C hai gii php u nhn mnh vo vic nng cao tnh c lp ca NHNN Vit Nam. Mc d ci cch b my iu hnh v m ca NHNN Vit Nam l cn thit, nhng y l gii php di hn. Trong khi , chnh sch t gi linh hot va c tc dng ngn hn va c tc ng di hn chnh l mt gi chnh sch cho vic bnh n gi c hin nay Vit Nam.
92
KT LUN
Bng vic s dng tng hp cc phng php phn tch nh lng kt hp vi cc phng php phn tch, so snh, v tng hp, cng trnh ch r tc ng ca CSTT ti gi c Vit Nam trong thi k i Mi, giai on 1986 2010. Cc phn tch nh lng ch ra, Vit Nam, trong thi k 1986 2010, gi c l kt qu ca qu trnh cung ng tin t. Ngoi ra, trong tng thi k c th, tnh c lp ca NHNN Vit Nam v chnh sch t gi hi oi trong bi cnh nn kinh t Vit Nam hi nhp su vo nn kinh t ton cu l nguyn nhn gii thch cho cc bin ng gi c. V vy, vic xut cc gii php nhm bnh n gi c Vit Nam trong thi gian ti l v cng cp bch. Cc gii php c cp n trong cng trnh ny l nhm khc phc hin tng bin ng gi c c nguyn nhn tin
93
t Vit Nam, trong giai on 1986 2010. Ngoi ra, mt kt qu quan trng khc t kt qu phn tch thc nghim l yu t k vng. M hnh kim nh mi quan h nhn qu gia tin t v gi c cho thy gi c trong qu kh c tc ng nht nh ti gi c hin ti l bi v n l thng s ngi dn hnh thnh k vng. Cc tr ca gi c trong m hnh d khng th minh ha y bin s k vng, nhng n l mt gi tr tham kho c gi tr. Bin ng gi c l mt hin tng tng hp ca rt nhiu yu t, do s rt sai lm nu ch l gii hin tng ny t mt nguyn nhn no v xem l nguyn nhn duy nht ri bc b cc nguyn nhn khc. V vy, nhng bin ng gi c xut pht t nguyn nhn phi tin t, mc tc ng ca yu t k vng ti din bin gi c, v vic s dng n nh mt cng c n nh gi c Vit Nam cn c nghin cu y v ton din hn trong cc cng trnh nghin cu tip theo.
94
PH LC A CC S LIU NGHIN CU
PH LC A1. Khi lng tin M2 Vit Nam giai on 1986 2010
95
Nm 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997
Khi lng tin M2 (t VND) 112 471 2.569 7.419 11.358 20.301 27.144 32.288 43.006 52.710 64.678 81.558
Nm 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Khi lng tin M2 (t VND) 102.416 142.646 222.882 279.781 329.149 411.233 532.346 690.201 922.672 1.348.244 1.622.130 2.092.548 2.720.312
2010 (c lng)
Ngun:
T 1986 n 1997: ADB (2008), Key Indicators of Developing Asia and Pacific countries. Truy cp ngy 06 thng 06 nm 2010, t
http://www.adb.org/Documents/Books/Key_Indicators/1999/vie.pdf. T 1998 n 2008: ADB (2009), Key Indicators for Asia and the Pacific 2009, Vietnam, tr. 3. Truy cp ngy 06 thng 06 nm 2010 t
https://sdbs.adb.org/sdbs/KI_fileDownload.jsp?key=VIE&scope=country&file=CT_VIE. pdf.
96
T 2009 n 2010: ADB (2010), Basic Statistics 2010, 6 ADB Avenue, Mandaluyong City, 1550 Metro Manila, Philippines, tr. 2.
PH LC A2. CPI v tc tng CPI Vit Nam trong giai on 1986 2010 (Nm 2010 = 100)
Nm 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997
CPI 0,411 1,893 8,982 17,583 23,919 43,488 59,885 64,903 71,058 83,085 87,732 90,447
Thay i % 453,538 360,357 374,354 95,77 36,031 81,817 37,705 8,379 9,483 16,926 5,593 3,095
Nm 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
CPI 97,783 101,799 100 99,69 103,756 107,183 115,645 125,352 134,758 146,008 179,759 191,833 214,853
Thay i % 8,11 4,108 -1,768 -0,31 4,079 3,303 7,895 8,349 7,503 8,349 23,115 6,717 12
Ngun:
97
IMF (2010), World Economic Outlook Databse. Truy cp ngy 06 thng 06 nm 2010, t http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2010/01/weodata/weorept.aspx?sy=1980&ey=2015&scsm=1&s sd=1&sort=country&ds=.&br=1&c=582&s=NGDP_R%2CNGDP_RPCH%2CNGDP%2CNGDPD%2C NGDP_D%2CNGDPRPC%2CNGDPPC%2CNGDPDPC%2CPPPGDP%2CPPPPC%2CPPPSH%2CPPP EX%2CPCPI%2CPCPIPCH%2CPCPIE%2CPCPIEPCH%2CLP%2CBCA%2CBCA_NGDPD&grp=0&a =&pr.x=79&pr.y=12.
PH LC A3. Bin ng t gi VND/USD giai on 1990 2010
Nm 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
T gi VND/USD 6482,8 10037 11202,2 10641 10965,7 11038,3 11032,6 11683,3 13268 13943,2 14167,7 14725,2 15279,5
98
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010(c lng)
15509,6 15746 15858,9 15994,3 16105,1 16302 17066 18500
Ngun:
T nm 1990 n nm 2008: ADB (2009), Key Indicators for Asia and the Pacific 2009, Vietnam,tr. 5. Truy cp ngy 06 thng 06 nm 2010 t https://sdbs.adb.org/sdbs/KI_fileDownload.jsp?key=VIE&scope=country&file=CT_VIE. pdf T nm 2009 n nm 2010: ADB (2010), Asian Development Outlook 2010, 6 ADB Avenue, Mandaluyong City, 1550 Metro Manila, Philippines, tr. 281.
PH LC A4. u t trc tip nc ngoi Vit Nam giai on 1990 2010
Nm 1990 1991
u t trc tip nc ngoi (triu USD) 120 220
99
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010(c lng)
260 300 1048 1780 2395 2220 1671 1412 1298 1300 1400 1450 1610 1889 2315 6516 9279 6900 7800
Ngun:
T nm 1990 n nm 2008: ADB (2009), Key Indicators for Asia and the Pacific 2009, Vietnam,tr. 5. Truy cp ngy 06 thng 06 nm 2010 t https://sdbs.adb.org/sdbs/KI_fileDownload.jsp?key=VIE&scope=country&file=CT_VIE.pdf
100
T nm 2009 n nm 2010: ADB (2010), Asian Development Outlook 2010, 6 ADB Avenue, Mandaluyong City, 1550 Metro Manila, Philippines, tr. 278.
PH LC A5. Thm ht cn cn vng lai Vit Nam giai on 1990 2010
Nm 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Thm ht/Thng d ti khon vng lai (%GDP) -4 -1,7 -0,1 -5,8 -7,2 -9 -8,2 -5,7 -3,9 4,1 3,6 2,1 -1,7 -4,9 -2,1 -1,1
101
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
-0,3 -9,8 -11,9 -7,8 -6,2
Ngun:
T nm 1990 n nm 2008: ADB (2009), Key Indicators for Asia and the Pacific 2009, Vietnam,tr. 5. Truy cp ngy 06 thng 06 nm 2010 t https://sdbs.adb.org/sdbs/KI_fileDownload.jsp?key=VIE&scope=country&file=CT_VIE. pdf. T nm 2009 n nm 2010: IMF (2010), World Economic Outlook 2010, 700 19th Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20431, U.S.A, tr. 175.
102
PH LC B CC KT QU KIM NH V M HNH HI QUY
PH LC B1. Kim nh nghim n v M2
Null Hypothesis: M2 has a unit root
103
Exogenous: Constant Lag Length: 0 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=1)
t-Statistic
Prob.*
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic Test critical values: 1% level 5% level 10% level
18.10202 -3.737853 -2.991878 -2.635542
1.0000
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(M2) Method: Least Squares Date: 07/09/10 Time: 02:25 Sample (adjusted): 1987 2010 Included observations: 24 after adjustments
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
M2(-1) C
0.291387 3582.083
0.016097 10844.86
18.10202 0.330302
0.0000 0.7443
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
0.937086 0.934226 44048.96 4.27E+10 -289.6438 327.6831 0.000000
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter. Durbin-Watson stat
113341.7 171754.9 24.30365 24.40182 24.32969 2.602046
104
Ngun: Tc gi hi quy t s liu nghin cu bng phn mm Eviews 6.0
PH LC B2. Kim nh nghim n v sai phn bc 1 ca M2
Null Hypothesis: D(M2) has a unit root Exogenous: Constant Lag Length: 1 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=1)
t-Statistic
Prob.*
3.047687 -3.769597 -3.004861 -2.642242
1.0000
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(M2,2) Method: Least Squares Date: 07/09/10 Time: 02:30
105
Sample (adjusted): 1989 2010 Included observations: 22 after adjustments
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
D(M2(-1)) D(M2(-1),2) C
0.387639 -0.683489 6180.695
0.127191 0.250943 16679.87
3.047687 -2.723689 0.370548
0.0066 0.0135 0.7151
0.355604 0.287773 63305.98 7.61E+10 -272.8302 5.242491 0.015380
28439.36 75012.83 25.07547 25.22425 25.11052 2.385964
PH LC B3. Kim nh nghim n v lnM2
106
Null Hypothesis: LNM2 has a unit root Exogenous: Constant Lag Length: 1 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=1)
t-Statistic
Prob.*
-1.146789 -3.752946 -2.998064 -2.638752
0.6788
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(LNM2) Method: Least Squares Date: 07/09/10 Time: 02:41 Sample (adjusted): 1988 2010 Included observations: 23 after adjustments
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
LNM2(-1) D(LNM2(-1)) C
-0.032187 0.583437 0.496432
0.028067 0.147370 0.373036
-1.146789 3.958987 1.330787
0.2650 0.0008 0.1982
0.720807 0.692888 0.190937 0.729141 7.055313 25.81755 0.000003
0.376583 0.344542 -0.352636 -0.204528 -0.315387 1.755633
107
PH LC B4. Kim nh nghim n v sai phn bc 1 ca lnM2
Null Hypothesis: D(DLNM2) has a unit root Exogenous: Constant Lag Length: 0 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=1)
t-Statistic
Prob.*
-2.906613 -3.752946 -2.998064 -2.638752
0.0600
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(DLNM2,2)
108
Method: Least Squares Date: 07/09/10 Time: 02:43 Sample (adjusted): 1988 2010 Included observations: 23 after adjustments
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
D(LNM2(-1)) C
-0.292191 0.073905
0.100526 0.058795
-2.906613 1.257010
0.0084 0.2226
0.286888 0.252931 0.192365 0.777086 6.322940 8.448401 0.008437
-0.051043 0.222559 -0.375908 -0.277169 -0.351075 1.993135
Ghi ch: DLNM2 = lnM2
PH LC B5. Kim nh nghim n v CPI
109
Null Hypothesis: CPI has a unit root Exogenous: Constant Lag Length: 0 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=1)
t-Statistic
Prob.*
1.587912 -3.737853 -2.991878 -2.635542
0.9990
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(CPI) Method: Least Squares Date: 07/09/10 Time: 02:37 Sample (adjusted): 1987 2010 Included observations: 24 after adjustments
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
CPI(-1) C
0.048812 4.751626
0.030739 3.062907
1.587912 1.551345
0.1266 0.1351
0.102827 0.062046 7.653189 1288.569 -81.85333 2.521466 0.126576
8.935083 7.902268 6.987777 7.085948 7.013822 1.337858
110
PH LC B6. Kim nh nghim n v sai phn bc 1 ca CPI
Null Hypothesis: D(CPI) has a unit root Exogenous: Constant Lag Length: 0 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=1)
t-Statistic
Prob.*
-2.829438 -3.752946 -2.998064 -2.638752
0.0697
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation http://svnckh.com.vn
111
Dependent Variable: D(CPI,2) Method: Least Squares Date: 07/09/10 Time: 02:39 Sample (adjusted): 1988 2010 Included observations: 23 after adjustments
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
D(CPI(-1)) C
-0.607131 5.989402
0.214577 2.376987
-2.829438 2.519745
0.0100 0.0199
0.276005 0.241529 7.523176 1188.562 -78.00314 8.005722 0.010043
0.936435 8.638369 6.956795 7.055534 6.981628 2.072733
PH LC B7. Kim nh nghim n v lnCPI
112
Null Hypothesis: LNCPI has a unit root Exogenous: Constant Lag Length: 0 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=1)
t-Statistic
Prob.*
-13.95233 -3.737853 -2.991878 -2.635542
0.0000
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(LNCPI) Method: Least Squares Date: 07/09/10 Time: 02:47 Sample (adjusted): 1987 2010 Included observations: 24 after adjustments
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
LNCPI(-1) C
-0.278102 1.365470
0.019932 0.084199
-13.95233 16.21715
0.0000 0.0000
0.898462 0.893847 0.140357 0.433405 14.11511 194.6675 0.000000
0.260797 0.430793 -1.009593 -0.911422 -0.983548 1.563568
113
PH LC B8. Kim nh nghim n v sai phn bc 1 ca lnCPI
Null Hypothesis: D(DLNCPI) has a unit root Exogenous: Constant Lag Length: 0 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=1)
t-Statistic
Prob.*
-3.773699 -3.752946 -2.998064 -2.638752
0.0095
114
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(DLNCPI,2) Method: Least Squares Date: 07/09/10 Time: 02:47 Sample (adjusted): 1988 2010 Included observations: 23 after adjustments
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
D(DLNCPI(-1)) C
-0.325721 0.025557
0.086314 0.043671
-3.773699 0.585219
0.0011 0.5646
0.404100 0.375724 0.177850 0.664243 8.127335 14.24080 0.001115
-0.061478 0.225095 -0.532812 -0.434073 -0.507979 2.335029
Ghi ch: DLNCPI = lnCPI
PH LC B9. Kt qu hi quy giai on 1986 1995
115
Dependent Variable: DLNCPI Method: Least Squares Date: 07/09/10 Time: 15:02 Sample (adjusted): 1987 1995 Included observations: 9 after adjustments
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
DLNM2 C
0.979330 -0.079759
0.094330 0.082129
10.38191 -0.971144
0.0000 0.3638
0.939016 0.930304 0.152521 0.162839 5.284545 107.7840 0.000017
0.589892 0.577730 -0.729899 -0.686071 -0.824479 1.550628
PH LC B10. Kt qu hi quy giai on 1996 - 2004

Dependent Variable: DLNCPI Method: Least Squares Date: 07/10/10 Time: 11:26 Sample: 1996 2004 Included observations: 9
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
DLNM2 CHINHSACH C
-0.031942 -0.057415 0.057706
0.100382 0.019143 0.024701
-0.318201 -2.999263 2.336192
0.7611 0.0240 0.0581
116
0.703859 0.605145 0.020118 0.002428 24.20957 7.130311 0.025971
0.036740 0.032015 -4.713239 -4.647497 -4.855109 2.603653

Dependent Variable: DLNCPI Method: Least Squares Date: 07/11/10 Time: 16:30 Sample: 2005 2010 Included observations: 6
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
DLNM2 HOINHAP C
-0.035106 0.121999 0.092449
0.203891 0.031532 0.059737
-0.172181 3.869059 1.547605
0.8743 0.0305 0.2195
R-squared Adjusted R-squared S.E. of regression Sum squared resid Log likelihood
0.906746 0.844577 0.021250 0.001355 16.67418
Mean dependent var S.D. dependent var Akaike info criterion Schwarz criterion Hannan-Quinn criter.
0.103238 0.053902 -4.558059 -4.662180 -4.974861
117
F-statistic Prob(F-statistic)
14.58513 0.028477
Durbin-Watson stat
2.123773
Dependent Variable: DLNCPI Method: Least Squares Date: 07/11/10 Time: 17:47 Sample (adjusted): 1987 2010 Included observations: 24 after adjustments
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
DLNM2 C
1.027151 -0.171367
0.068205 0.039221
15.05987 -4.369231
0.0000 0.0002
0.911575 0.907556 0.130981 0.377431 15.77452 226.7997 0.000000
0.260797 0.430793 -1.147877 -1.049706 -1.121832 1.495905
PH LC B13.1. Kt qu hi quy kim nh Granger cho mi quan h nhn qu gia tin t v gi c giai on 1986 2010
118
Vector Autoregression Estimates Date: 07/11/10 Time: 20:57 Sample (adjusted): 1989 2010 Included observations: 22 after adjustments Standard errors in ( ) & t-statistics in [ ]
DLNCPI
DLNM2
DLNCPI(-1)
0.440995 (0.20347) [ 2.16737]
0.242288 (0.22006) [ 1.10100]
DLNCPI(-2)
-0.206973 (0.20888) [-0.99089]
-0.094646 (0.22591) [-0.41895]
DLNM2(-1)
-0.117132 (0.21144) [-0.55397]
0.286336 (0.22868) [ 1.25211]
DLNM2(-2)
0.334732 (0.19146) [ 1.74834]
0.054789 (0.20707) [ 0.26459]
0.007881 (0.05387) [ 0.14629]
0.158711 (0.05827) [ 2.72383]
R-squared Adj. R-squared Sum sq. resids S.E. equation F-statistic
0.725214 0.660559 0.188356 0.105261 11.21660
0.721286 0.655707 0.220328 0.113844 10.99862 http://svnckh.com.vn
119
Log likelihood Akaike AIC Schwarz SC Mean dependent S.D. dependent
21.14844 -1.468040 -1.220076 0.144306 0.180669
19.42384 -1.311258 -1.063294 0.316590 0.194020
Determinant resid covariance (dof adj.) Determinant resid covariance Log likelihood Akaike information criterion Schwarz criterion
0.000122 7.26E-05 42.40386 -2.945806 -2.449877
PH LC B13.2. Kt qu hi quy kim nh Granger cho mi quan h nhn qu gia tin t v gi c giai on 1986 2010
Vector Autoregression Estimates Date: 07/11/10 Time: 21:20 Sample (adjusted): 1989 2010 Included observations: 22 after adjustments Standard errors in ( ) & t-statistics in [ ]
DLNCPI
DLNCPI(-1)
0.315347 (0.13305) [ 2.37021]
120
DLNCPI(-2)
0.093971 (0.10435) [ 0.90050]
0.052132 (0.02748) [ 1.89701]
R-squared Adj. R-squared Sum sq. resids S.E. equation F-statistic Log likelihood Akaike AIC Schwarz SC Mean dependent S.D. dependent
0.675089 0.640888 0.222715 0.108268 19.73879 19.30529 -1.482299 -1.333520 0.144306 0.180669
MC LC
DANH MC T VIT TT DANH MC BNG BIU, HNH V LI M U ................................................................................................... 5
121
CHNG I: L LUN CHUNG V CHNH SCH TIN T V TC NG CA CHNH SCH TIN T TI GI C............... 8
1.1 L lun chung v chnh sch tin t .......................................................... 8 1.1.1 Tin t v h thng tin t .................................................................. 8 1.1.1.1 Ngun gc v khi nim tin t .................................................... 8 1.1.1.2 H thng tin t ............................................................................. 9 1.1.1.2.1 Tin mt .................................................................................. 10 1.1.1.2.2 Tin gi khng k hn ti cc ngn hng thng mi ............ 10 1.1.1.2.3 Tin gi c k hn .................................................................. 10 1.1.1.2.4 n v nh ca tin gi c k hn .......................................... 11 1.1.1.2.5 Tri phiu ngn hn c mua li ca ngn hng thng mi11 1.1.1.2.6 la Euro ................................................................................ 12 1.1.1.2.7 Tin gi trong cc qu tn dng ca th trng tin t ........... 12 1.1.1.2.8 Ti khon gi th trng tin t ........................................... 12 1.1.1.2.9 Tin t theo ngha rng ........................................................... 12 1.1.1.2.10 Cc loi ti sn thanh khon .................................................. 13 1.1.2 L lun chung v chnh sch tin t................................................ 15 1.1.2.1 Khi nim .................................................................................... 15 1.1.2.2 Cc tc nhn tham gia thc thi chnh sch tin t ..................... 16 1.1.2.2.1 Ngn hng trung ng ............................................................ 16 1.1.2.2.2 Ngn hng thng mi v cc trung gian ti chnh phi ngn hng. ............................................................................................... 16 1.1.2.2.3 Ngi gi tin v ngi vay tin ............................................ 18 1.1.2.3 Vai tr ca cc tc nhn thc thi chnh sch tin t ti qu trnh cung tin..................................................................................................... 18 1.1.2.4 Cc cng c ca chnh sch tin t ............................................ 20 1.1.2.4.1 Nghip v th trng m ......................................................... 21 1.1.2.4.2 Chnh sch ti chit khu ........................................................ 22
122
1.1.2.4.3 D tr bt buc ....................................................................... 23 1.1.2.5 Mc tiu v phng thc iu tit v m bng chnh sch tin t.. .................................................................................................. 24 1.1.2.5.1 Mc tiu ca chnh sch tin t ............................................... 24 1.1.2.5.2 Phng thc iu tit v m bng chnh sch tin t .............. 26 1.2 Tc ng ca chnh sch tin t ti gi c .............................................. 27 1.2.1 Cc phng php tnh gi .................................................................. 27 1.2.1.1 Phng php xc nh da trn ch s gi tiu dng ................... 28 1.2.1.2 Phng php xc nh da trn ch s gim pht tng sn phm quc ni...................................................................................................... 29 1.2.2 C ch truyn ti ca chnh sch tin t ti gi c ........................ 29 1.2.2.1 Tc ng ca chnh sch tin t ti gi c qua knh li sut ....... 29 1.2.2.2 Tc ng ca chnh sch tin t ti gi c qua cc knh gi ti sn khc ............................................................................................................ 31 1.2.2.2.1 Tc ng ca chnh sch tin t ti gi c qua knh t gi hi oi.. ....................................................................................................... 31 1.2.2.2.2 Tc ng ca chnh sch tin t ti gi c qua knh gi c phiu...24 1.2.2.2.3 Tc ng ca chnh sch tin t ti gi c qua knh hiu ng ca ci ........................................................................................................... 32 1.2.2.3 Tc ng ca chnh sch tin t ti gi c qua knh tn dng....25 1.2.2.3.1 Tc ng ca chnh sch tin t ti gi c qua knh tn dng ngn hng ........................................................................................................ 33 1.2.2.3.2 Tc ng ca chnh sch tin t ti gi c qua knh bng tng kt ti sn ...................................................................................................... 33
KT LUN CHNG I ............................................................................. 36
123
CHNG II: PHN TCH NH LNG TC NG CA CHNH SCH TIN T TI GI C VIT NAM TRONG THI K I MI ..................................................................................... 37
2.1 Ch nh m hnh nghin cu .................................................................. 37 2.1.1 Bng chng rt gn v mi quan h gia cung tin v gi c ......... 37 2.1.2 C s l lun mi quan h gia cung tin v gi c ......................... 38 2.1.3 Ch nh m hnh ................................................................................ 40 2.1.3.1 M hnh tng qut.......................................................................... 40 2.1.3.2 M hnh kim nh mi quan h nhn qu gia cung tin v gi c42 2.1.4 Bng chng thc nghim v m hnh c s dng cho phn tch nh lng .................................................................................................... 44 2.2 Phn tch tc ng ca chnh sch tin t ti gi c Vit Nam trong thi k i Mi ............................................................................................... 51 2.2.1M t s liu v kim nh tnh dng ca cc chui s liu .............. 51 2.2.1.1 M t cc bin c s ..................................................................... 51 2.2.1.2 Kim nh tnh dng ca cc chui s liu ................................... 52 2.2.2 Phn tch nh lng tc ng ca chnh sch tin t ti gi c trong giai on 1986 1995 .................................................................................. 53 2.2.2.1 Tnh hnh kinh t Vit Nam giai on 1986 1995....................... 53 2.2.2.2 Kt qu phn tch nh lng ........................................................ 56 2.2.3 Phn tch nh lng tc ng ca chnh sch tin t ti gi c trong giai on 1996 2004 .................................................................................. 57 2.2.3.1 Tnh hnh kinh t Vit Nam giai on 1996 2004....................... 57 2.2.3.2 Kt qu phn tch nh lng ........................................................ 59 2.2.4 Phn tch nh lng tc ng ca chnh sch tin t ti gi c trong giai on 2005 2010 .................................................................................. 60 2.2.4.1 Tnh hnh kinh t Vit Nam giai on 2005 2010....................... 60 2.2.4.2 Kt qu phn tch nh lng ........................................................ 68
124
2.2.5 Phn tch nh lng tc ng ca chnh sch tin t ti gi c trong giai on 1986 2010 .................................................................................. 69 2.3 Phn tch nh lng mi quan h nhn qu gia cung tin v gi c 70
KT LUN CHNG II ........................................................................... 71

CHNG III: TNG KT V XUT CC GII PHP NHM NNG CAO HIU LC CA CHNH SCH TIN T ................... 72
3.1Tng kt ...................................................................................................... 72 3.2 Nng cao tnh c lp ca Ngn hng Nh nc Vit Nam.63 3.2.1 C s l thuyt cho vic nng cao tnh c lp ca Ngn hng Nh nc Vit Nam.63 3.2.2 Tnh c lp ca Ngn hng Nh nc Vit Nam hin nay ............ 80 3.2.2.1 Tnh c lp ca Ngn hng Nh nc Vit Nam v nhn s ...... 80 3.2.2.2 Tnh c lp ca Ngn hng Nh nc Vit Nam v ti chnh ..... 81 3.2.2.3 Tnh c lp ca Ngn hng Nh nc Vit Nam trong thc thi chnh sch tin t ................................................................................................. 82 3.2.3 Cc gii php nng cao tnh c lp ca Ngn hng Nh nc Vit Nam ............................................................................................................... 84 3.2.3.1 Nng cao tnh c lp v nhn s ca Ngn hng Nh nc Vit Nam ............................................................................................................ 85 3.2.3.2 Nng cao tnh c lp v ti chnh ca Ngn hng Nh nc Vit Nam ............................................................................................................ 85 3.2.3.3 Nng cao tnh c lp trong thc thi chnh sch tin t ca Ngn hng Nh nc Vit Nam........................................................................... 86 3.3 iu hnh chnh sch t gi hi oi nhm bnh n gi c Vit Nam87 3.3.1 C s l thuyt iu hnh chnh sch t gi hi oi nhm bnh n gi c ................................................................................................................... 87 3.3.2 Thc tin iu hnh chnh sch t gi hi oi Vit Nam ............ 89 3.3.3 Cc gii php nng cao hot ng iu hnh chnh sch t gi hi oi nhm bnh n gi c Vit Nam ........................................................ 90
125
3.3.3.1 Nng cao tnh c lp ca Ngn hng Nh nc Vit Nam ......... 90 3.3.3.2 Tng cng cc bin php kt hi ngoi t v vng ..................... 91
KT LUN CHNG III ......................................................................... 92 KT LUN ...................................................................................................... 93 DANH MC TI LIU THAM KHO PH LC A PH LC B
126

(YRC) - Mo Hinh Kinh Te Luong Dung de Tiep Can Va Phan Tich Tac Cua Chinh Sach Tien Te Den Gia CA o Viet Nam Trong Thoi Ky Doi Moi

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B GIO DC V O TO TRNG I HC NGOI THNG ---------o0o---------

C c CO CPI CSTT D Fed GDP GDPd GNP i IMF L m M M1 M2 M3 MB MS MS NHNN

NHTW NX ODA OLS

USD VND WTO

DANH MC BNG BIU, HNH V

DANH MC BNG BIU

CHNG I: L LUN CHUNG V CHNH SCH TIN T V TC NG CA CHNH SCH TIN T TI GI C

Bng 1.1 o lng khi lng http://svnckh.com.vn tin t

Mt khc, khi lng tin M2 c nh ngha l: M2 = C + D + T (T : TD v tin gi tit kim) (1.4)

(1.6) l h s nhn tin M2

lu thng. Rr tc ng n MS theo c ch: rr tng lm m gim xung, t lm MS gim; v ngc li.

Bng 1.2. Tc ng ca cc cng c CSTT ti MS

Chnh sch ti chit khu

Li sut ti chit khu

Mc tiu v phng thc iu tit v m bng CSTT

HNH 1.1 iu tit v m bng CSTT ca NHTW

Chnh sch ti chit khu

Li sut lin ngn hng

1.2.1 Cc phng php tnh gi

: Gi kz gc hng i : Gi kz nghin cu hng i : Lng kz gc hng i

: Gi kz nghin cu hng i : Gi kz gc hng i : Lng kz nghin cu hng i

Khi lng tin, M

HNH 1.2 Tc ng ca CSTT ti gi c qua knh li sut

v ti chnh Chi tiu cho hng tiu dng lu bn v nh COY P.

Biu din di dng hm s, phng trnh s gia ny nh sau: (2.2) Nu gi nh rng hm c th xp x bi mt h s a0

BNG 2.1 Tm tt nhng nghin cu thc nghim v m hnh c ch nh

Cc bin s dng trong m hnh MV = PY

16 nc M 1950 1969 Latinh

Dwyer v 62 nc Hafer (1988) Yash Mehra (1989) P. Hoa K

BNG 2.1 Tm tt nhng nghin cu thc nghim v m hnh c ch nh (tip theo)

Cc bin s dng trong m hnh MV = PY

P.R.Brahmananda, n G.Nagaraju (2004) Jamie (2006) Emerson Hoa K

BNG 2.2 Tm tt thng k cc bin s dng cho m hnh hi quy

M2 M2 D(1) lnM2 lnM2 CPI D(1) CPI

-3,769 -3,0048 -2,642 Dng 5%

-1,146789 -3,753 -2,998 -2,906613 -3,753 -2,998 1,587912 -3,738 -2,992

D(1) lnCPI lnCPI D(1)

-2,829438 -3,753 -2,998 -13,95233 -3,738 -2,992 -3.773699 -3,753 -2,998

-2,639 Dng 10% -2,636 Dng 1% -2,638 Dng 1%

Ngun: Tnh ton ca tc gi t s liu nghin cu.

F-statistic = 7,13 Durbin Watson = 2,6

Cc nc chu ang pht trin:

IMF (2010), IMF Data Mapper. Truy cp ngy 11 thng 07 nm 2010, t

F-statistic = 14,56 Durbin Watson = 2,12

LNCPI = 0.052132 + 0.093971*LNCPI(-2) + 0.315347*LNCPI(-1) RSS = 0.222715 F = 19.73879

output level hay socially desired level). Cc bin s p, y,

n gin ha, ch s thi gian khng c a vo m hnh. Sn lng y chnh

(3.12) Ly vi phn hai v ca phng trnh (3.12) theo hb v t dELS/dhb = 0, c:

V Vn Minh (2010), Kim ch cc yu t gy lm pht tm l{. Truy cp ngy 25 thng 06 nm 2010, t

KT LUN CHNG III

PH LC A1. Khi lng tin M2 Vit Nam giai on 1986 2010

PH LC A3. Bin ng t gi VND/USD giai on 1990 2010

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010(c lng)

15509,6 15746 15858,9 15994,3 16105,1 16302 17066 18500

PH LC A4. u t trc tip nc ngoi Vit Nam giai on 1990 2010

u t trc tip nc ngoi (triu USD) 120 220

PH LC A5. Thm ht cn cn vng lai Vit Nam giai on 1990 2010

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

-0,3 -9,8 -11,9 -7,8 -6,2

PH LC B CC KT QU KIM NH V M HNH HI QUY

PH LC B1. Kim nh nghim n v M2

Null Hypothesis: M2 has a unit root

Exogenous: Constant Lag Length: 0 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=1)

LNCPI = 0.052132 + 0.093971LNCPI(-2) + 0.315347LNCPI(-1) RSS = 0.222715 F = 19.73879