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TRNG I HC M TP.

H CH MINH

KHOA QUN TR KINH DOANH

CNG MN HC

L THUYT
Xc sut & Thng k
Nm hc: 2008 2009

www.ou.edu.vn; 97 V Vn Tn, Qun 3, Phng 6, TP. H Ch Minh

TRNG I HC M TPHCM KHOA QUN TR KINH DOANH


97 V Vn Tn - Qun 3 - Tp. H Ch Minh - Vit Nam Tel: (84-8) 9 300 210 - Fax: (84-8) 9 300 085

PHN A: THNG TIN TNG QUT


MC TIU CA MN HC
Trang b cho sinh vin kin thc c bn v xc sut v thng k nhm phc v cho vic hc tp v nghin cu chuyn ngnh Qun tr kinh doanh. Sau khi hc mn hc ny sinh vin s: Nm vng phng php xc sut v thng k c bn nh: cc phng php tnh xc sut v cc trng hp s dng thch hp, cc phng php tm tt v trnh by d liu ca thng k m t v mt s phng php c bn ca thng k suy din. C kin thc nn tng hc tip mn nguyn l thng k v cc mn lin quan n phng php nh lng.

YU CU CA MN HC
Sinh vin cn nm vng kin thc c bn ca tan cao cp tip thu tt mn hc ny

THI LNG CA MN HC
L thuyt xc sut v thng k l 1 hc phn 4 n v hc trnh (60 tit) c phn b nh sau: S tit l thuyt v bi tp: S tit thc hnh trn my c hng dn: 45 15

PHNG PHP GING DY


Phng php din ging v hng dn sinh vin t nghin cu thm da trn ti liu hc tp Hng dn sinh vin vn dng l thuyt gii cc bi tp Hng dn sinh vin s dng cc phn mm thng dng gii cc bi tp

u . e d u . v n

NH GI KT QU HC TP
Kim tra gia k (bi tp hoc thc hnh trn my vi tnh): 30% tng im Bi thi ht mn (bi tp, trc nghim): 70% tng im

HC LIU
Ti liu Power Point cc bi ging Thng k ng dng trong qun tr, kinh doanh v nghin cu kinh t: Trn B Nhn, inh Thi Hang, NXB Thng k 2007 Bi tp Thng k ng dng trong qun tr, kinh doanh v nghin cu kinh t : Trn B Nhn, inh Thi Hang, NXB Thng k 2007 Phn tch d liu nghin cu vi SPSS: Hang Trng, Chu Nguyn Mng Ngc, NXB Thng k 2005 Copyright 2008 by Khoa Qun tr kinh doanh Trang 1/8

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TRNG I HC M TPHCM KHOA QUN TR KINH DOANH


97 V Vn Tn - Qun 3 - Tp. H Ch Minh - Vit Nam Tel: (84-8) 9 300 210 - Fax: (84-8) 9 300 085

K HOCH GING DY

Bui hc 1 2 3 4, 5 6 7 8 9 10, 11, 12

NI DUNG Mt s khi nim c bn Thu thp v trnh by d liu Cc c trng o lng tp trung v phn tn C bn v xc sut Bin ngu nhin v qui lut phn phi xc sut Phn phi chun Phn phi mu c lng Thc hnh trn my c hng dn THI CUI KHA

S tit 5 5 5 10 5 5 5 5 15

ngh: Sinh vin c ti liu c lin quan, nghin cu tnh hung tho lun v lm bi tp trc khi tham d lp hc.

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Copyright 2008 by Khoa Qun tr kinh doanh

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TRNG I HC M TPHCM KHOA QUN TR KINH DOANH


97 V Vn Tn - Qun 3 - Tp. H Ch Minh - Vit Nam Tel: (84-8) 9 300 210 - Fax: (84-8) 9 300 085

PHN B: NI DUNG MN HC
Mc tiu yu cu NI DUNG CHNH
Mt s khi nim v xc sut o Php th kt cc bin c o nh ngha xc sut o ng dng ca xc sut Cc khi nim c bn ca xc sut v thng k Cc loi thang o

Nhng kin thc ct li cn nm

Gii thiu cc khi Mt s khi nim v thng k KHI NIM nim c bn ca o Tng th phng php xc sut o Mu C BN v thng k o Bin d liu o ng dng ca thng k Cc loi thang o o Khi nim o Cc loi thang o Ngun d liu o Ngun d liu s cp o Ngun d liu th cp Thng k m t vi d liu nh tnh o Bng phn phi tn s Trnh by cc o Biu tn s ngun d liu v cc o Biu hnh thanh v hnh phng php c bn trn ca tm tt v trnh Thng k m t vi d liu nh by d liu lng o o o Bng phn phi tn s Biu tn s, tn s tng i, tn s tch lu Biu histogram

1. MT S

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2. THU THP V TRNH BY D LIU

Phn bit ngun d liu s cp v th cp Phng php thng k m t d liu nh tnh, d liu nh lng Phng php nhnh v l, biu hp

Phng php nhnh v l

Biu hp

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TRNG I HC M TPHCM KHOA QUN TR KINH DOANH


97 V Vn Tn - Qun 3 - Tp. H Ch Minh - Vit Nam Tel: (84-8) 9 300 210 - Fax: (84-8) 9 300 085

Mc tiu yu cu

NI DUNG CHNH
Cc c trng o lng khuynh hng tp trung o Trung bnh s hc n gin v trung bnh s hc c trng s o Trung v o Mode o Trung bnh hnh hc

Nhng kin thc ct li cn nm

3. CC C TRNG O

phn tn Trnh by cc c o Khi nim LNG trng o lng tp o Cc c trng o lng phn tn TP TRUNG trung v phn tn ca mt tp d liu Khong bin thin V PHN T phn v TN tri gia lch tuyt i trung bnh Phng sai lch chun H s bin thin o Hnh dng phn phi ca dy s Phng php tnh xc sut o Phng php c in o Phng php thc nghim o Phng php ch quan

Cc c trng o lng khuynh hng trung tm nh: cc s trung bnh, trung v, mode Cc c trng o lng phn tn nh: khong bin thin, t phn v, tri gia, lch tuyt i trung bnh, phng sai, lch chun, h s bin thin v hnh dng phn phi ca dy s

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4. C BN V XC SUT

Qui tc tnh xc sut o Qui tc cng Nm c cc khi o Qui tc nhn nim c bn v xc Cng thc tnh xc sut y sut, cc qui tc v v cng thc Bayes phng php tnh c o Cng thc tnh xc sut y bn o Cng thc Bayes Qui tc m o Qui tc nhn o Chnh hp o Chnh hp lp o T hp

Cc phng php tnh xc sut, cc qui tc tnh xc sut v cng thc tnh xc sut y , cng thc Bayes

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TRNG I HC M TPHCM KHOA QUN TR KINH DOANH


97 V Vn Tn - Qun 3 - Tp. H Ch Minh - Vit Nam Tel: (84-8) 9 300 210 - Fax: (84-8) 9 300 085

Mc tiu yu cu

NI DUNG CHNH
Khi nim

Nhng kin thc ct li cn nm

Phn phi xc sut ca bin ngu Hiu c khi nhin ri rc NGU NHIN nim bin ngu nhin, o Trung bnh (k vng) V QUI phn bit c bin o Phng sai v lch chun LUT PHN ngu nhin ri rc v Phn phi xc sut ca bin ngu bin ngu nhin lin nhin lin tc PHI XC tc, mt s qui lut Mt s phn phi xc sut thng SUT phn phi xc sut dng thng dng o Phn phi nh thc

5. BIN

Cch tnh cc c trng ca bin ngu nhin ri rc v lin tc Cc phn phi xc sut thng dng nh: phn phi nh thc, phn phi siu bi v phn phi poisson

o Phn phi siu bi o Phn phi Poisson Hiu bn cht ca phn phi chun v cc ng dng ca n. Bit cch vn dng 6. PHN phn phi chun vo PHI CHUN mt s tnh ton xc sut v xp x cc phn phi ri rc thng dng nh ngha Tnh cht Phn phi chun tiu chun ha Bng tch phn Laplace Th d minh ho Dng phn phi chun xp x cc phn phi ri rc o Xp x cho phn phi nh thc o Xp x cho phn phi siu bi o Xp x cho phn phi Poisson Gii thiu Tham s ca tng th v gi tr thng k mu Hiu c bn o Tham s tng th cht ca phn phi - Trung bnh tng th mu trong thng k - T l tng th suy din. Nm c - Phng sai tng th cc c trng c bn o Gi tr thng k mu ca phn phi trung - Trung bnh mu bnh mu, phn phi - T l mu t l mu v phn phi - Phng sai mu phng sai mu Phn phi ca trung bnh mu o Thuc tnh ca trung bnh mu o So snh phn phi ca tng th vi phn phi ca trung bnh Copyright 2008 by Khoa Qun tr kinh doanh Trang 5/8 Phn phi chun Bng tch phn Laplace Xp x cc phn phi ri rc

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7. PHN PHI MU

Mi quan h gia tham s tng th v gi tr thng k mu Phn phi trung bnh mu Phn phi t l mu Phn phi phng sai mu

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TRNG I HC M TPHCM KHOA QUN TR KINH DOANH


97 V Vn Tn - Qun 3 - Tp. H Ch Minh - Vit Nam Tel: (84-8) 9 300 210 - Fax: (84-8) 9 300 085

Mc tiu yu cu

NI DUNG CHNH
mu o Sai s chun ca trung bnh mu o Chn mu t tng th c phn phi chun o Chn mu t tng th khng c phn phi chun Phn phi t l mu Phn phi ca phng sai mu c lng im

Nhng kin thc ct li cn nm

8. C LNG

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c lng khong o Khong tin cy ca trung bnh o Khong tin cy ca t l Phn bit phng o Khong tin cy ca phng sai Bn cht ca c lng php c lng im o Khong tin cy cho s khc bit Cc phng php xc v c lng khang. gia trung bnh hai tng th nh khang tin cy cho Nm vng cc o Khong tin cy cho s khc bit trung bnh tng th, t l phng php c gia t l hai tng th tng th, phng sai v lng tham s tng o Khong tin cy mt bn s khc bit gia cc th t d liu mu tham s ca 2 tng th Xc nh kch thc mu trong cc trng hp o Kch thc mu trong trng Xc nh kch thc mu xc nh khang tin hp c lng khong tin cy trong c lng cy ca trung bnh tng th o Kch thc mu trong trng hp c lng khong tin cy ca t l tng th

Vit cng: ThS. Trn Tun Anh Duyt cng: TS. Trnh Thy Anh Ngy duyt cng: 15/12/2008

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