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Th trng ngoi hi Vit Nam - Thc trng v gii php GVHD: ThS.

Nguyn Th Hnh

A. LI M U:
Trong tin trnh hi nhp vi nn kinh t quc t, t nm 1990, cng cuc i Mi Vit Nam c y mnh hn vi ch trng l pht trin mt nn kinh t hng ho nhiu thnh phn vn hnh theo c ch th trng c s qun l ca Nh nc; cng cuc i mi cng c tin hnh ng thi vi vic pht trin kinh t i ngoi, m ca, hp tc v hi nhp, ph hp vi xu hng quc t ho nn kinh t th gii ngy cng mnh m. L mt phn ca th trng tin t, vi vai tr nh l chic cu ni gia nn kinh t ni a v nn kinh t th gii bn ngoi, trong nhng nm qua, th trng ngoi hi Vit Nam c nhng ng gp khng nh i vi s n nh v pht trin ca th trng tin t ni ring cng nh i vi s tng tng ca nn kinh t ni chung. Tuy nhin, gn y, bn cnh nhng nhng chuyn bin tch cc nh lun chuyn ngoi t ca nn kinh t c ci thin, s lng kiu hi tng n tng trong nhng thng cui nm, th trng ngoi hi Vit Nam cng xy ra nhiu bin ng ng k nh tnh trng la ha, s hot ng trn lan ca th trng ch en gy nh hng khng nh ln nhiu kha cnh ca nn kinh t. V vy, tm hiu v nghin cu v thc trng ca th trng ngoi hi Vit Nam hin nay v ang l vn cp thit khng ch i vi cc nh kinh t, cc nh u t ngoi hi m cn i vi c Chnh ph iu tit v m nn kinh t mt cch tt hn. Bi tiu lun vi ti Th trng ngoi hi Vit Nam _ Thc trng v gii php s nu ra mt s thng tin v thc trng hot ng ca th trng ngoi hi Vit Nam hin nay cng nh xut mt s gii php gii quyt nhng kh khn cn tn ti.

B. NI DUNG CHNH:
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Th trng ngoi hi Vit Nam - Thc trng v gii php GVHD: ThS. Nguyn Th Hnh

I. L LUN C BN V TI: 1. Khi nim th trng ngoi hi:


Th trng ngoi hi hay th trng hi oi ngoi t l th trng tin t quc t din ra cc hot ng giao dch cc ngoi t v cc phng tin thanh ton c gi tr nh ngoi t. Th trng ngoi hi c tn ting Anh l The Foreign Exchange Market, v c vit tt l FOREX hay FX. Trong thc t, do hot ng mua bn tin t xy ra ch yu gia cc ngn hng (chim khong 85% tng doanh s giao dch), chnh v vy theo ngha hp th th trng ngoi hi cn l ni mua bn ngoi t gia cc ngn hng hay cn gi l Interbank.

2. c im ca th trng ngoi hi:


- Th trng ngoi hi khng nht thit phi tp trung ti v tr a l hu hnh nht nh m l bt c ni u din ra hot ng mua bn cc ng tin khc nhau. Do n cn c gi l th trng khng gian. - L th trng ton cu, hot ng 24/24h. Do c s chnh lch mi gi gia cc khu vc trn th gii nn cc giao dch din ra sut ngy m, cn c gi l th trng khng ng. - Trung tm l th trng lin ngn hng - Interbank vi cc thnh vin ch yu l cc ngn hng thng mi, cc nh mi gii ngoi hi v cc ngn hng trung ng. Doanh s giao dch trn Interbank chim ti 85% tng doanh s giao dch ton cu. - Giao dch thng qua cc phng tin hin i nh in thoi, mng vi tnh, telex, fax. - Chi ph giao dch thp, hot ng rt hiu qu. Do th trng c tnh ton cu, thng tin cn xng, khi lng giao dch cc ln, cng ngh hon ho, hng ha ng cht.dn n chi ph thp v hot ng ca th trng tr nn hiu qu. - ng tin c s dng nhiu nht l ng USD, chim ti 41,5% trong tng s ng tin tham gia, k n l EURO v Yn Nht ng v tr th 3. - Nhy cm i vi cc s kin kinh t, chnh tr, x hinht l chnh sch tin t ca cc nc ang pht trin.

3. Chc nng ca th trng ngoi hi:


- p ng nhu cu mua bn, trao i ngoi t nhm phc v cho qu trnh chu chuyn, thanh ton trong cc lnh vc thng mi v phi thng mi.
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Th trng ngoi hi Vit Nam - Thc trng v gii php GVHD: ThS. Nguyn Th Hnh

- Cng c ngn hng trung ng c th thc hin chnh sch tin t nhm iu khin nn kinh t theo mc tiu chnh ph. - Th trng ngoi hi c chc nng tn dng. - Cung cp cc cng c cho cc nh kinh t nghin cu phng nga ri ro hi oi trong trao i ngoi t. ng thi gip cc nh u c nghin cu thu c li nhun nu h d on c t gi hi oi.

4. Nhng thun li v gi tr khi giao dch trong th trng ngoi hi:


* Khng ph dch v : Khng ph trao i, khng ph thanh ton, khng ph chnh ph, khng ph mi gii. Ngi mi gii s c trch t ph giao dch thng qua im bidask (trung bnh 3-5 pips) * Khng qua trung gian t lnh: Giao dch tin t khng cn trung gian v cho php khch hng giao dch trc tip vi th trng v c cp nht thng tin trc tip v gi v t gi cc cp tin t. * Khng gii hn giao dch: trong cc th trng khc hp ng giao dch c gii hn bi t l nht nh (v d hp ng quyn chn tng lai i vi vng l 5000 ounces). Trong Forex, c th giao dch vi ch mt ti khon nh 300$. * Ph giao dch thp: Ph giao dch cho cc ti khon nh ( bid/ask spread) ch khong 0.1% vi nhng iu kin thng. Ti khon cng ln ph giao dch cng thp. * Th trng giao dch 24h: Khng phi ch i gi th trng m ca v ng ca. Giao dch t ti CN n tra th 6 gi EST, c th ni th trng FOREX khng bao gi ng. y l thun li ln i vi nhng ngi mun giao dch trong thi gian rnh hoc thi gian thch hp nht trong ngy, bi v bn c th chn giao dch bt k lc no (sng, tra, ti hoc m). * Khng ai c kh nng nh hng th trng: Th trng Forex qu ln v qu nhiu ngi tham gia nn khng ai , cho d c 1 ngn hng , c th kim sot gi tr trng trong di hn. S can thip ca ngn hng trung ng ch c tc dng trong ngn hn v khng hiu qu. Ngn hng trung ng ngy cng c t tc ng hay can thip vo th trng ton cu. * Access (Truy cp): Forex c m 24h/ngy t khong 6g chiu Ch Nht ti khong 3g chiu Th Su. Nhng ngi giao dch ring l c th i ph vi tin tc khi n c tung ra cn hn l i ting chung m ca ca nhng th trng khc lc mi ngi u c nhng tin tc ging nhau. iu ny cho php nhng ngi giao dch tham
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Th trng ngoi hi Vit Nam - Thc trng v gii php GVHD: ThS. Nguyn Th Hnh

gia trc khi tin tc chi tit c phn tch trn t l giao dch. Liquidity cao v giao dch 24 gi cho php nhng ngi tham gia th trng vo v thot ra bt c lc no. C nhiu nh Mi gii phn phi Forex tng vng, tng trung tm th trng chnh (Tokyo, Hong Kong, Sydney, Paris, London, M, v.v) sn sng tip tc a ra gi mua v bn. * thanh khon cao: Bi v th trng Forex qu ln, n cng rt d thanh khon. iu ny gip bn nhanh chng thc hin giao dch ch vi 1 c nhp chut trong iu kin bnh thng. Bn c th mua bn ngay lp tc ty . Bn khng bao gi b kt trong th trng. Bn cng c th thit lp ch t ng cho sn giao dch kt thc lnh giao dch khi bn t c li nhun mong mun ( nh mc li) hoc ng khi th trng dch chuyn ngc chiu mong mun ( chng l) * Th trng 2 mt: tin c giao dch theo cp, v d: /yn, hoc /ng Thy S. Mi v tr lin quan n vic bn ng tin ny v mua ng tin kia. Nu ngi giao dch tin rng ng Thy S s cao gi hn , h c th bn v mua ng Thy S (bn sm). Nu ngi khc tin ngc li th h s mua v bn ng Thy S (mua v tr). Kh nng li nhun tn ti v t gi trao i (gi c) lun lun dao ng. .Giao dch Forex cho php thu li t 2 pha c tng v gim gi tr tin t lin quan ti . Trong mi giao dch tin t, mi bn u c c v mt. * Excution Quality: Bi v Forex rt hay thay i, hu ht nhng giao dch c th c thc hin vi gi ca th trng hin ti. Trong tt c nhng th trng di chuyn nhanh, khng th trnh c ri ro trong tt c cc giao dch (chng khon, bt ng sn, v.v) nhng c th c trnh bng 1 vi chng trnh phn mm ca nh mi gii tin t, cc chng trnh ny s thng bo cho bn bit gi nhp vo chnh xc trc khi thc hin lnh. Bn c php chn trnh hoc chp nhn ri ro. Kh nng thanh khon ca th trng Forex rng ln ra nhng kh nng khp lnh c cht lng cao. * Tnh tp trung (Focus): Thay v c gng chn 1 chng khon, 1 kh c, qu h tng hoc bt ng sn t hng chc ngn th c sn trn th trng, nhng ngi giao dch Forex ch tp trung vo 1 ti 4 ng tin. Nhng ng d thay i v thng dng l: Yn Nht, bng Anh, ng Thy S v Euro. Nhng ngi giao dch thnh cng cao l nhng ngi tp trung vo s lng u t c gii hn. Nhng ngi mi bt u Forex thng tp trung vo 1 ng tin v sau kt hp t 1 n 3 ng trong hot ng giao dch.
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Th trng ngoi hi Vit Nam - Thc trng v gii php GVHD: ThS. Nguyn Th Hnh

* Tnh xu hng (Trendiness): Trong 1 khong thi gian lch s, tin t khng nh xu hng l quan trng. Mi ng tin c tnh cch ring ca n v a ra ch 1 xu hng, bt k nhng c hi giao dch a dng trong th trng c im Forex. Tt c cc lnh phi c t thng qua sn giao dch. giao dch tin t bn phi cn 1 sn giao dch tin t Forex. Hu ht nhng cng ty giao dch c nhng yu cu v ti khon k qu khc nhau. Bn cn phi hi h nhng yu cu v ti khon k qu nu mun tham gia giao dch tin t thng qua sn giao dch ca h.

5. Phn loi th trng ngoi hi:


5.1. Theo nghip v kinh doanh: - Th trng giao ngay - Th trng k hn - Th trng hon i - Th trng tng lai - Th trng quyn chn 5.2. Theo tnh cht giao dch: - Th trng giao ngay - Th trng tin gi 5.3. Theo tnh cht php l: - Th trng chnh thc - Th trng phi chnh thc 5.4. Theo phm vi th trng: - Th trng ngoi hi quc t - Th trng ngoi hi ni a 5.5. Theo phng thc giao dch: - Th trng giao dch trc tip - Th trng giao dch qua mi gii

6. Thnh phn tham gia th trng ngoi hi:


- Cc ngn hng - Cc ngn hng trung ng: hu ht cc nc ngn hng trung ng ng vai tr t chc, kim sot, iu hnh v n nh th trng ngoi hi. - Cc ngn hng thng mi v cc ngn hng u t: tham gia vi mc ch kinh doanh, cung cp dch v cho khc hng nh mt nh mi gii.
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Th trng ngoi hi Vit Nam - Thc trng v gii php GVHD: ThS. Nguyn Th Hnh

- Cc nh mi gii: l ch th trung gian trong cc giao dch trn th trng. - Cc doanh nghip: cc doanh nghip tham gia ch yu l cc doanh nghip xut nhp khu. H va l ch th cu ngoi t,va l ch th cung ngoi t. - Cc c nhn, cc nh kinh doanh: bao gm cc cng dn trong v ngoi nc c nhu cu mua v bn ngoi t. - Cc t chc ti chnh phi ngn hng - Cc cng ty a quc gia

7. Cc nghip v kinh doanh ch yu trn th trng ngoi hi:


- Nghip v giao dch ngoi hi giao ngay: L nghip v mua hay bn ngoi t m vic chuyn giao c thc hin ngay lp tc hay l chm nht l sau 2 ngy k t khi tha thun hp ng mua bn. - Nghip v kinh doanh chnh lch t gi: L nghip v da vo mc chnh lch t gi gia cc th trng ngoi hi thu li nhun thng qua hot ng mua bn. - Nghip v giao dch ngoi hi c k hn: L nghip v mua bn ngoi t m vic giao nhn s c thc hin sau mt thi gian nht nh theo t gi tha thun lc k kt hp ng. - Nghip v hon i: L nghip v ngoi hi phi hp gia hai nghip v giao dch ngoi hi giao ngay v giao dch ngoi hi c k hn kim li nhun. - Nghip v ngoi hi giao sau: L nghip v tin hnh mt tha thun mua bn mt s lng ngoi t bit theo t gi c nh ti thi im hp ng c hiu lc,vic chuyn giao ngoi t c thc hin vo mt ngy trong tng lai. - Nghip v giao dch ngoi hi chn quyn: L nghip v thc hin trn c s hp ng quyn chn mua hay quyn chn bn. + Quyn chn mua : cho php ngi mua c quyn nhng khng bt buc mua mt s lng ngoi t nht nh. + Quyn chn bn : cho php ngi bn c quyn nhng khng bt buc bn mt s lng ngoi t nht nh. Ngi mua quyn chn c th bn hoc hy hp ng nu thy khng c li. Nhng ngi bn quyn chn phi thc hin hp ng nu nh ngi mua yu cu.

II. THC TRNG CA VN NGHIN CU: 1. Din bin ca th trng ngoi hi Vit Nam trong nhng nm gn y:
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Th trng ngoi hi Vit Nam - Thc trng v gii php GVHD: ThS. Nguyn Th Hnh

Nm 2009, t gi USD/VND tip tc tng trong 4 thng u nm, c bit sau khi NHNN thc hin ni rng bin t gi ln 5% khin cho t gi ngoi t lin NH c t tng t bin. Nm 2010, gi USD tng kh mnh trong nm 2009, sang n thng 1/2010 li gim nh v tip tc dao ng quanh mc 18.479 ng/USD cho n gia thng 2/2010. Nguyn nhn l do: Ngun cung USD c th tng t ngun vn u t trc tip; t vn h tr pht trin chnh thc; t vn u t gin tip; t ngun kiu hi t Vit kiu v t lao ng lm vic nc ngoi gia tng; ngun thu t khch quc t n Vit Nam gia tng tr li; kim ngch xut khu chuyn t tng trng m (-) sang tng trng dng (+) Bn cnh , cc tp on, tng cng ty ln ca Nh nc bn ngoi t cho ngn hng, sc p tm l gm gi USD do lo s ri ro t gi gim, chnh lch gia gi th trng t do vi gi nim yt trn th trng chnh thc gim ng k. n cui nm 2010, th trng ngoi hi VN ri vo tnh trng cng thng khi cu ngoi t qu ln, trong khi ngun cung li khan him. iu ny khin cho gi USD/VND tng mnh, lm nh hng n nn kinh t v m. u thng 11/2010, gi tr ng USD ang gim trn ton th gii nhng Vit Nam n li tng mnh. y l mt nghch l v gy ra nhng tc hi ln cho nn kinh t. Gi USD trn th trng t do lin tc bt ph ln mc cao, b xa t gi chnh thc. Ngy 3/11, gi USD t do ln ti 21.000 ng/USD. D c gim xung cht t vo cui gi chiu, 20.800 ng TP.HCM v 20.850 ng H Ni, nhng vt xa trn 19.500 ng/USD m NHNN cng b. tng gi USD din ra lin tc trong sut na thng v ngy no cng tng. Thc t ny khin ngi dn x i mua ngoi t. Trong khi , DN li "b tay" bi khng mua c p ng nhu cu ca mnh hoc mua khng . Tnh hnh din ra tng t ngay trn th trng chnh thc, khi t gi lin ngn hng c lc ln ti 19.880 ng, ch khng phi 19.500 nh trn. Cc ngn hng u nim yt gi ng quy nh, song thc t, ngoi gi mua vo bn ra cng thm cc chi ph khc cao hn gi nim yt. Hin tng ny dng nh lp li tnh hnh ca mt s thi k trc. ng ch , trong h thng ngn hng, quy m giao dch, trng thi ngoi hi cng gim. Nu trc y (hi thng 8) iu chnh l dng 3%, gn y, gim xung dng 1% v n

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Th trng ngoi hi Vit Nam - Thc trng v gii php GVHD: ThS. Nguyn Th Hnh

giai on nhng ngy gn y xung xp x 0%. iu ny cho thy, cc ngn hng cng khng d tha ngoi t, ch ng ni l cn gm gi m khng bn. y thc s l mt ngch l khi trn th gii USD mt gi, vng tng gi, cn Vit Nam USD tng gi, vng ln gi v tin Vit li mt gi. 6 thng u nm 2011, vi chnh sch tht cht tin t ca NHNN, im ni bt nht ca th trng ngoi t l duy tr c s n nh. T gi giao dch dn h xung. Bt u t s gim nhit ca t gi trn th trng t do, chnh lch t gi gia th trng ny so vi th trng chnh thc gim dn xung, thm ch c thi im cn thp hn c th trng chnh thc mt hin tng him thy trong nhiu nm qua. Trn th trng chnh thc, t gi giao dch ca cc NHTM thng mc thp hn bin ti a theo quy nh (1% so vi t gi bnh qun trn th trng lin ngn hng do NHNN cng b); xen k nhng ngy tng, t gi c nhiu ngy ng v nhiu ngy gim, y l iu him thy trc y. Khi th trng t do b thu hp, chnh lch t gi gia th trng t do v th trng chnh thc gim thiu, t gi c bn n nh v c xu hng gim, to thi c NHNN mua vo ngoi t. Theo s liu ca NHNN, tnh n ht thng 7, NHNN mua c 5 t USD d tr ngoi hi, mt ng thi m t gia nm 2008 n trc thng 5/2011 cha thc hin c. Cc doanh nghip v ngi dn bt u bn ngoi t cho ngn hng; bc u chuyn dn quan h huy ng v cho vay bng ngoi t sang quan h mua bn ngoi t gia ngn hng vi khch hng; vic nim yt gi thanh ton, mua bn trc tip bng ngoi t c thu hp. Tnh n ngy 29/9/2011, huy ng vn ngoi t ca h thng cc t chc tn dng t nn kinh t tng 0,07% (tng ng 17 triu USD) so vi cui thng 8/2011. D n tn dng bng ngoi t (thu n ngoi t) gim 792 triu USD, tng ng 2,71% so vi cui thng 8/2011. Nh vy, trong thang 9/2011, phn thu ngoi t (809 triu USD) vn ln hn phn chi ngoi t tr n (745 triu USD) cua h thng ngn hang l 64 triu USD. Mt khc, tin gi ngoi t ca TCTD ti NHNN tng cao trong thng 9/2011 cho thy thanh khon ngoi t ca h thng ngn hng tip tuc c am bao. Tnh n ngy 29/9/2011, tin gi ngoi t ca TCTD ti NHNN tng 45,1% so vi cui thng 8/2011, tng ng vi mc tng thm 586 triu USD.

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Th trng ngoi hi Vit Nam - Thc trng v gii php GVHD: ThS. Nguyn Th Hnh

Xem xt biu t gi bnh qun lin ngn hng gia USD v VND trong nm nay, ta thy, sau lot tng 14 ln lin tip, n u thng 10, t gi bnh qun lin ngn hng gia USD vi VND ni di 5 tun c nh. V sau khi bn ra khong 1,5 - 1,8 t USD h tr th trng t gia thng 8, ch yu cho nhp khu vng, t thng 10 tr li y NHNN khng cn phi dng gii php ny. Ngy 7/12, trong ngn hng, gi USD bn ra thc t quay v mc 21.100 ng, ch chnh khong 90 ng so vi nim yt. Trn th trng t do, nhng ngy ny, gi mua bn USD h nhit, n nh khong 21.050 - 21.100 ng/USD. Mc d nhiu ngn hng u nim yt gi mua v bn mc kch trn, nhng biu hin cho thy s n nh tng i cng ang dn tr li. iu ny c ghi nhn t din bin t gi trn c th trng chnh thc v t do. Cng vi xu hng bin ng trn th trng t do, t gi VND/USD trn hp ng k hn (NDF) cng ghi nhn s n nh hu ht cc k hn. C c kt qu ny, mt phn n t bin php mnh tay ca NHNN khi tng cng kim tra hot ng mua bn ngoi t mt s t chc tn dng ng thi x l mnh tay i vi cc trng hp vi phm c tc ng tch cc n t gi trong thi gian gn y. Song hu thun ln nht ang th hin l nhng chuyn bin tch cc ca kinh t v m. Trong bo co ti Hi ngh Nhm t vn cc nh ti tr dnh cho Vit Nam (CG) nm 2011, din ra ngy 6/12, ng Cao Vit Sinh, Th trng thng trc B K hoch v u t, cho bit nm 2011 hot ng xut nhp khu ca Vit Nam t kt qu kh

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Th trng ngoi hi Vit Nam - Thc trng v gii php GVHD: ThS. Nguyn Th Hnh

quan, thc hin tt hn cc ch tiu ra v to s h tr ln cho yu cu n nh t gi. C th l kt qu kim ch nhp siu v trng thi thng d ca cn cn tng th. Theo bo co trn, tng kim ngch xut, nhp khu ca Vit Nam nm 2011 d tnh s t con s k lc l 202 t USD, bng 170% GDP. Trong , tng kim ngch xut khu t 96 t USD, tng 33% so vi nm 2010; tng kim ngch nhp khu t 106 t USD, tng 25%. Theo , nhp siu gim mnh, c nm d kin khong 10 t USD, bng 10,5% tng kim ngch xut khu, thp hn nhiu so vi mc tiu ra (khng qu 18%). Cng trong bo co trn, d tnh cn cn tng th nm 2011 s thng d ti 3,1 t USD. y l s ci thin rt ln khi nm 2009 cn cn tng th thm ht ti 8,8 t USD v nm 2010 thm ht 3,07 t USD. Trong nhng chuyn bin tch cc ny, mt dng chy ngoi t t kiu hi cng ang gp phn ng k. c tnh va cng b ca Ngn hng Th gii (WB) cho thy, trong nm 2011, lng kiu hi chuyn v Vit Nam t gn 9 t USD. Vi con s ny, Vit Nam thuc top 10 cc nc nhn c nhiu kiu hi nht theo con ng chnh thc (gm n , Trung Quc, Mexico, Philippines, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nigeria, Ai Cp v Liban). Trong nhng nm gn y, lng kiu hi v Vit Nam lun mc cao, vt 5 t USD k t nm 2007. Th nhng s ngoi t t kiu hi bn cho h thng ngn hng ch c 10%. Vi nhng quy nh qun l th trng ngoi t va c trin khai (pht tin t 300 - 500 triu ng i vi trng hp mua bn ngoi t tri php; tch thu tang vt ngoi t, tin ng...), ngnh ngn hng k vng s mua c nhiu ngoi t hn t ngun kiu hi. Vi nhng hu thun , t gi USD/VND ang c nhng iu kin v v m n nh. NHNN ang nm kh nng gi c cam kt iu chnh khng qu 1%, d sau lot iu chnh t u thng 10 va qua dng ti 0,85% "qu cam kt" ny. Tuy nhin, nhiu t chc thi gian qua cng d bo rng, cu ngoi t thi gian cn li ca nm 2011 v u nm 2012 s mc cao. C th l sau hn 1 thng gi nguyn mc 20.803 ng, ngy 14/12, t gi lin ngn hng bt ng iu chnh tng thm 10 ng, ln 20.813 ng. T ng thi ny, la trong cc ngn hng thng mi cng nhch thm 8 - 10 ng so vi trc, mua vo ph bin 21.015 ng, bn ra 21.019 ng.

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Th trng ngoi hi Vit Nam - Thc trng v gii php GVHD: ThS. Nguyn Th Hnh

Nh vy, k t cam kt khng tng t gi qu 1% ca Thng c Ngn hng Nh nc Nguyn Vn Bnh trong cuc hp vi cc ngn hng thng mi hm 7/9, n hm nay, t gi tng tng ng 0,9%. Mc tng ny tng ng vi 185 ng, k t mc 20.628 ng t hi u thng 9. T nhiu ngy nay, gi USD chnh thc trong ngn hng quay v u 21.000 ng, bn ra ph bin 21.100- 21.150 ng, tng ng vi th trng t do. Nhng thc t, gi la trong ngn hng sng nay chnh thm 100 ng so vi nhng hm trc. Ti H Ni, ch mt doanh nghip kinh doanh trang sc cho bit, n v ng c mt s ngn hng thng mi cho bn USD vi gi 21.270 ng, tng t nht 120 ng so vi cch y vi ngy. Cn trn th trng t do, sau nhiu ngy mua bn ph bin 21.100- 21.140 ng, sng nay, gi ang nhch nh khong 30 ng, giao dch ph bin 21.130- 21.180 ng (mua vo- bn ra). Theo gii thch ca cc im thu i ngoi t, gi nhch ln l do nhu cu ca th trng bt u "m" tr li. ng Nguyn c Hng, Ph ch tch Ngn hng Bu in Lin Vit nh gi, vic y t gi ln 10 ng sau c thng c nh vn nm trong t l cam kt ca Thng c Ngn hng Nh nc, nn khng ng ngi. V nguyn nhn, theo ng, c th l do cu USD ang mnh v cui nm, hn na, y t gi ln song li kim ch c th trng ch en, l mt nhn t tng gi USD, kch thch xut khu. Mt s chuyn gia nh gi, vic iu chnh t gi ca Ngn hng Nh nc ln ny c th khng gy tc ng ln ti th trng. Nguyn nhn l, Ngh nh 95 ca Chnh ph v x pht vi phm ngoi t, vng... khin th trng t do "chn" hn trc. Hin nay, v c bn, Ngn hng Nh nc tng t gi, nhng kim sot c th trng ch en, nn nu vn nm trong vng 1% nh cam kt ca ngi ng u Ngn hng Trung ng, th khng ng ngi, mt chuyn gia nhn nh. 2. Nhng thch thc i vi th trng ngoi hi Vit Nam hin nay: Bn cnh nhng chuyn bin tch cc, th trng ngoi hi Vit Nam cng ang ng trc nhiu kh khn cn phi gii quyt kp thi: - Trong h thng cc t chc tin dung, tc tng tn dng ngoi t ln hn gn gp 2 ln tc tng tn dng ni t, tc tng tn dng vng cng rt cao (gn gp 3 ln tc tng tn dng ni t) l nhng nghch l khng ging nc nao trong khu vc v trn th gii. Hu qu l a lam tng tnh trng la ha (thm ch vng ha) vn
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Th trng ngoi hi Vit Nam - Thc trng v gii php GVHD: ThS. Nguyn Th Hnh

rt nng n, nay li cng phc tp thm. Thm vo , chnh lch qu ln gia li sut ng ni t v ngoi t khin cc doanh nghip x i vay USD, sau bn ra ly VND phc v sn xut kinh doanh, lm cho ngun cung o USD trn th trng gia tng. Cc chuyn gia kinh t lo ngi rng, cung o ny s bin thnh cu thc khi cc khon vay n k o hn v s to p lc ln t gi nhng thng cui nm. - Nhp siu lin tc tng ln trong cc thng u nm lm cho cn cn thng mi, cn cn thanh ton b mt cn i, to sc p ln t gi. cng l biu hin ca n thng mi nc ngoi khng trong danh mc n tn dng ca Nh nc v doanh nghip vi nc ngoi. Mt khc, theo thng k t u nm n nay, ngun ngoi t t u t trc tip nc ngoi gim, ngun kiu hi s kh tng cao so vi nm trc. Ngun ngoi t t u t gin tip, h tr pht trin chnh thc v khch quc t n Vit Nam c th tng, nhng khng c ngha quyt nh. - Lut php v kinh t th trng cn rt yu v thiu, lm cho Nh nc b bt lc trc v s hin tng kinh t ngm nm ngoi vng kim sot hoc khng th kim sot c, gy tht thu thu v nhim mi trng mi loi doanh nghip, thuc mi thnh phn kinh t. in hnh v vic thiu v yu cua lut php trn thi trng tai chinh th hin trong cc lnh vc kim sot tnh trng la ha, pha long c phiu, lm gi chng khon, kim sot giao dch bt ng san, chi tiu ngn sach nha nc (nht l tiu), lp sn sau u t cho v thanh ton bin mu ch yu bng tin mt nhm trn thu v gian ln gi c a lm cho thi trng tai chinh Vit Nam nm qua c kh nhiu hin tng lon: lon gi vng, bt ng san, t gi, li sut v tn dng ngoi t, vi vy v hnh trung cng cc mt cn i khc, th trng ti chnh gp phn to thnh tng lc y ch s gi tiu dng ln ti 2 con s: 11,75% so vi thng 12/2009. - Tc tng CPI tuy chm li, nhng vn cn cao, nn yu t lm pht vn hin hu. Ngi c vn c th vn cha ht k vng vo cc ni tr n an ton, trong c ngoi t. - Mc d nim tin vo ng Vit Nam c cng c nhng tnh trng -la ha vn cha c gii quyt trit ; tn dng ngoi t tng cao, mt s TCTD c h s s dng vn vt 100%, mt s TCTD huy ng vn nc ngoi tng trng tn dng cao, tim n ri ro khi cc ngun vn nc ngoi b rt t ngt. Trn th trng vn cn tnh trng cc TCTD lch cc quy nh v t gi lm tng bt n trn th trng ngoi hi
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Th trng ngoi hi Vit Nam - Thc trng v gii php GVHD: ThS. Nguyn Th Hnh

- Cc chnh sch nh tht cht tin t, dp b th trng ch en, gim mc trn li sut huy ng USD ch tc ng ngn hn n t gi. S bin ng t gi trong di hn ty thuc vo mc nhp siu v ch s lm pht ca Vit Nam trong tng lai. V v lu di, gii quyt tt bi ton t gi Vit Nam, cn phi gii quyt mt cch cn bn bi ton nhp siu v lm pht nhm to dng lng tin vng chc vo tin ng. - Hn 70% gi tr hng xut khu c nguyn liu l hng nhp khu m t gi lin tc tng ng ngha vi nhp khu lm pht, cng hng vi lm pht trong nc cng y gi hng nhp khu cho tiu dng v nhp khu cho sn xut ln cao. Vic hu nh khng c ngnh cng nghip ph tr, khng ch lm cho gi tr gia tng thp, m cn lm cho nn kinh t b chia ct cc b thnh nhiu tiu nn kinh t c nhng c ch khc nhau c v sn xut, tiu th ln phng tin thanh ton ngay trong cng mt th trng ca quc gia thng nht. - ng tin Vit Nam dng nh ngy cng qu nh b v sc mua nu nhn xuyn v lch s 25 nm qua (t ngy i tin gn nht la ngay 14-9-1985), con nu nhn vo nn kinh t noi chung th nc ta vn lun la nn kinh t bi nhp siu (tr nm 1992). Ngha l, ng ni t lin tc yu i so vi sc mua bn ngoai m vn khng ci thin c tnh trng nhp siu. Theo thi bo kinh t Vit Nam, s 308 ngy 25-122010, nu tnh ly k ch 7 nm t thang 12/2003 n thang 12/2010, CPI ca Vit Nam tng 200% (2 ln); Cng theo ngun trn, gi vng thng 12/2010 cao hn gi vng thang 12/2000 ti 7,3 ln, tc l sc mua ca VND sau 10 nm nu so vi vng ch cn 13,7%. Trong khi , cuc chin tin t gia cc cng quc, cng nh cuc chin n cng gia cc quc gia chu u cng ang gy sc p gim sc mua ca nhiu ng tin, lm cho th thng ngoi hi c nhiu thay i to ln.

III. GII PHP:


1. Ci cch th trng ngoi hi chinh thc xo bo ch en: Vit Nam ang tn tai hai loai ty gia: ty gia trn th trng lin ngn hng v ty gia trn th trng t do (hay ch en). Cac c quan chc nng ang dung cac bin phap hanh chinh dep bo thi trng ch en. Tuy nhin, y khng phai la mt cach tip cn cn c. Cach tt nht la chinh thc ho phn ln nhu cu ngoi t cua ngi dn vn chi co th c ap ng trn thi trng ch en.
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Th trng ngoi hi Vit Nam - Thc trng v gii php GVHD: ThS. Nguyn Th Hnh

Thi trng ngoai hi cua mt quc gia thc cht la thi trng lin ngn hang. Khac vi thi trng chng khoan, ma giao dich cua thi trng ngoai hi la cac cp ty gia so vi ng ban t, chng han USDVND, EURVND, GRBVND v.v. Cung khac vi thi trng chng khoan, ni gia cua cac c phiu nim yt c xac inh thng qua giao dich cn bin trn mt san thi trng tp trung, y, giao dich c thc hin mt cach phi tp trung. Cac nha u t se giao dich vi cac ngn hang thng qua cac nha mi gii. n lt, cac ngn hang se mua ban ngoai t vi nhau thng qua cac san EBS hoc Reuters duy tri trang thai ngoai hi cua minh. Tt ca cac giao dich gia cac bn, du gia nha u t vi cac ngn hang hay gia cac ngn hang vi nhau, u c thc hin c lp vi cac mc ty gia ring re. Tuy nhin, do s canh tranh gia mi gii va ngn hang, cac mc ty gia nay co xu hng ngang bng nhau. Cung vi s canh tranh, mc chnh lch gia ty gia mua va ban (bidask spread) ma cac ngn hang ap dung thng cung thp. Mc ty gia lin ngn hang ma chung ta bit thng co tinh c l do cac ngn hang nim yt hoc cac hang thng tn thu thp trn thi trng lin ngn hang. Trn thi trng lin ngn hang, ngn hang trung ng hay ngn hang Nha nc (NHNN) ong vai tro nh la mt nha tao lp thi trng. Thng qua cac hoat ng mua va ban ngoai t vi cac ngn hng thng mi (NHTM), NHNN co th iu tit ty gia trn thi trng xung quanh mc muc tiu ma mnh mong mun. Thi trng ch en cua Vit Nam phat trin vi nhu cu u t va s dung ngoai t cua cac ca nhn khng c thi trng lin ngn hang va h thng NHTM ap ng. Ngi dn nhin thy cac c hi gia tng tai san cua minh khi nm gi ngoai t nhng khng th tham gia vao thi trng lin ngn hang. iu nay t dn n nhu cu mua va nm gi ngoai t trn thi trng ch en. Tng t, ngi dn lun co nhu cu s dung ngoai t, chng han cho muc ich du lich nc ngoai hoc kham cha bnh. NHTM khng th ap ng ht c cac nhu cu nay. Kt qua la h tim n ch en. Vi ngun cung hang t USD mi nm t kiu hi, thi trng ch en ngay cang ln manh. Do ty gia lin ngn hang khng n c vi dn chung nn ty gia t do tr thanh tin hiu chinh hu ht cac thanh phn kinh t tham chiu cho cac tinh toan kinh t cua minh.
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Th trng ngoi hi Vit Nam - Thc trng v gii php GVHD: ThS. Nguyn Th Hnh

Cach tt nht han ch s phat trin cua thi trng ch en la hp thc ho phn ln cac nhu cu v ngoai t ma ngi dn chi co th c ap ng thng qua ch en. 2. M rng i tng tham gia u t va mi gii: Hin nay, trn thi trng lin ngn hang cua Vit Nam, chi co cac doanh nghip xut nhp khu c tham gia mua ban trn thi trng lin ngn hang thng qua cac chi nhanh cua cac NHTM trong vai tr mi gii.

Nn m rng i tng mi gii ra cac t chc c NHNN (hoc mt u ban quan ly thi trng ngoai hi) cp giy phep, v d nh cac cng ty chng khoan, cac nha cai ngoai t trn thi trng ch en. Khi , cac chi nhanh cua NHTM se phai canh tranh vi cac nha mi gii mi nay trong vic mua ban ngoai t. Cac qu u t va cac ca nhn nn c phep tham gia u t trn thi trng lin ngn hang thng qua cac nha mi gii. Vic u t vao ngoai t cung tng t nh vic u t vao cac loai tai san khac. Nha u t co th m tai khoan giao dich ngoai t tai cac cng ty mi gii tng t nh tai khoan chng khoan ri nap VND hoc USD vao tai khoan va giao dich mua ban ngoai t. Khi mun rut tin, h se phai ban ngoai t ra thi trng ly VND. Bng cach nay, tuy h co tai khoan u t bng ngoai t nhng trn thc t ngoai t khng chay ra khoi h thng ngn hang. 3. Tach hot ng s dung ngoai t khoi u t:

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Th trng ngoi hi Vit Nam - Thc trng v gii php GVHD: ThS. Nguyn Th Hnh

Hin tai hoat ng s dung ngoai t cua cac doanh nghip xut nhp khu cung nh cua ca nhn khng c tach bach khoi hoat ng u t. Nn cho cac doanh nghip nhp khu cung nh ngi dn c mua ngoai t nhp khu hang ho hoc i du lich/cng tac nc ngoai t cc NHTM. Vic ny se tng t nh ngi dn ra nc ngoai s dung the Visa. H c mua vi ty gia thng nht cng vi mt ty l phi nht inh do rut ngoai t ra khoi h thng lin ngn hang. NHTM se ap dung cac mc phi khac nhau cho cac i tng la doanh nghip hoc khach hang ca nhn. Nha nc co th quy inh cac ty l ti thiu cho cac i tng nay. Hin nay, chu u, bn canh mc phi ti thiu, ngi dn mun s hu ngoai t se phai tra thm t 1 2% cho cac khoan mua ngoai t cho cac muc ich ca nhn. Thu tuc mua ngoai t nn n gian. Vi lng mua thp, chng han di 1.000 USD, ngi dn chi cn xut trinh chng minh nhn dn. Vi lng mua ln hn, h phai khai muc ich s dung. Bi ty gia mua ngoai t tin mt thng cao hn tng i so vi ty gia lin ngn hang nn vic u t bng cach mua ngoai t gi tit kim thng khng phai la la chon cua nha u t. 4. NHNN: bo t duy phn phi: Trong mt nn kinh t thi trng, gia ca cn phai binh ng cho moi i tng va muc ich s dung. Nu Nha nc mun h tr i tng nao hay s dung chinh sach tai kho. Trong thi trng ngoai hi, moi muc ich s dung ngoai t nh xng du hay my phm cn c i x binh ng. Cac i tng nay se u phai mua ngoai t vi ty gia nh nhau, phan anh cung cu ngoai t cua toan b nn kinh t. Nu Nha nc mun tr gia cho xng du hay han ch vic mua my phm, hay ap dung cac bin phap thu quan. Chi vi t duy nay NHNN mi thc s ong vai tro la ngi tao lp va iu tit thi trng ngoai hi. La mt tay chi nm thng tin ro rang nht va co vn ln nht, NHNN chc chn se nhanh chong lam giau c qu d tr ngoai hi quc gia tng t nh cac nc v vng lnh th trong khu vc nh Han Quc, ai Loan, Thai Lan thc hin sau nm 1997. 5. Bo v gi tr sc mua i ni v i ngoi ca ng tin Vit Nam:

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Th trng ngoi hi Vit Nam - Thc trng v gii php GVHD: ThS. Nguyn Th Hnh

Trc ht, cn nhn din v vn dng cc qui lut ca tin t: Lng tin ni t cung ng vo lu thng cng ln (bt lun t knh no) so vi mc bo ha trc th t gi cng tng (o bng s ng ni t/mt ng ngoi t), cng ng ngha vi lm pht cng cao. V ngc li, bt k lc no c lm pht l c hin tng cung tin cc k trc qu cao so vi nhu cu thc ca nn kinh t. Cu v ngoi t cng ln th t gi cng cng tng (nhng ch trong ngn hn, nu nn kinh t khng b la hoa) v ngc li, tc l khi li sut huy ng ngoi t phi cng tt th t gi mi s phi tt theo. Li sut ni t cng tng th ngc li, khng nhng t gi s cng tt m ch s lm pht cng s cng gim Suy cho cng, sc mua i ni v i ngoi ca ng ni t phi tng tin ti n nh th mi chng c lm pht v gim pht l nguyn l l thuyt bt di bt dch. Th hai: T nhng nguyn l mang tnh qui lut ni trn, chng gia tng t gi lc ny cn phi c cc gii php tng ng lm x hi t t cc p lc ang lm cho t gi v lm pht tng. Trong gii php mnh lm x hi c hiu ng r nht chnh l dng ngoi t d tr (ngay c rt him cng phi cn nhc, s dng) mua tin ng vo, bn ngoi t ra theo cc a ch c xem l ang c p lc ln nht v thit thc nht. ng thi vi vic ny l hng lot cc gii php khc mang tnh ngn hn nh phi c tn hiu sit cht hn na chinh sach tin t v gim r rt s chi tiu ca Chnh ph; Tng li sut ti cp vn, ti chit khu trn th trng tin t s cp; Nu cn, cng phi tng c d tr bt buc tin gi; S dng nhiu hn cc cng c ca chinh sach tin t to sng lan ta ti th trng tn dng, ly t th trng c iu kin gim dn li sut ni t theo qui lut; V hnh chnh, phi cng b gim mnh li sut huy ng ngoi t, tng mnh li sut cho vay bng ngoi t v tin ti gim dn, tng bc c l trnh chm dt tn dng ngoi t v tn dng vng; Buc cc t chc tin dung phi chuyn khon u t tri phiu doanh nghip t ngun huy ng sang d n tn dng thay v hch ton vo mc u t; Cn i li chi v tiu ngn sach nha nc; Tm dng nhp khu nhng n hng khng thit yu; a dng ha c cu danh mc tin d tr cng nh phng tin thanh ton quc t Nhng gii php mang tnh trung v di hn: Tng cng cc bin php mnh v qun l nh nc chng la ha bng lut v h thng hnh chnh mt cch cng quyt sao cho trn t Vit Nam nht thit ch tiu tin Vit Nam i vi mi thnh
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Th trng ngoi hi Vit Nam - Thc trng v gii php GVHD: ThS. Nguyn Th Hnh

phn, mi khu vc kinh t; Xc nh l trnh khng cn tn dng ngoi t v tn dng vng trong th trng vn; Qun l cht vic cung ng tn dng v s dng phng tin thanh ton ca tt c cc nhm ngn hng, k c cc ngn hng c nhn t nc ngoi; Tin ti khuyn khch cc dng ngoi t chy vo Vit Nam ch c i qua th trng ngoi hi v th trng tri phiu chnh ph,g cng m chi nhnh v/hoc m ngn hng 100% vn Vit Nam ti nc ngoi va pht trin th trng dch v ngn hng ra nc ngoi, va p ng nhanh nht cc nhu cu tin ng ngay t ngoi bin gii lnh th cho khch vo u t hay du lch ti Vit Nam; Pht trin mnh h thng cc doanh nghip ph tr ci thin r rt c cu chi ph trong gi thnh sn phm hng ha xut khu theo hng chi ph mua nguyn, nhin liu, sc lao ng cng nh thit b my mc do Vit Nam sn xut se chim t trng ln, tng mnh hm lng ni ia ha gi tr hng xut khu ca Vit Nam; C l trnh chuyn dt khot m hnh Ngn hang Nha nc hin nay sang m hnh Ngn hang Trung ng c lp vi Chnh ph; Hnh nh ng tin Vit Nam phi ngy cng c ci thin khng ch v nim tin vo sc mua n nh, m tin ti c v mnh gi v tnh c lp c bo v, c tin tng trong mi tng lp cng chng. Th ba: Trn th trng bt ng sn, ch nn p ng tn dng trung v di hn c bn bng ngun vn c di tng ng qua th trng chng khon/hoc qua cc c ch chuyn nghip nh ngn hang u t, ngn hang phat trin, Cng ty ti chnh, Qu u t c lp hoc hch ton c lp trong ngn hang thng mai. thc hin c iu o cn phi c c ch minh bch cho phng nga, kim sot ri ro. c bit l gii php chng khon ha tn dng bt ng san cn phi thng qua thng tin v xp hng tn dng, v kt qu kim ton c lp tin cy cao, khng nn p dng nguyn l ni lu n thp cm tn dng bt ng san nh M lm trong nhng nm 2001 2009. Trong iu kin th trng chng khon Vit Nam cn yu, gii php hu hiu lc ny cho vn gim ri ro tn dng bt ng san chnh l: Ngay trong cc ngn hang thng mai ln nn thnh lp cc n v hch ton c lp nh ngn hang u t, ngn hang phat trin, cng ty tai chinh thc hin cc hot ng dch v v t doanh chuyn nghip v lnh vc bt ng san, nh: thu mua ti chnh, bo him khon vay, bo lnh pht hnh chng khoan bt ng san, bo lnh vay vn, hay lp Qu u t tn thc hnh thnh i ng cc nh kinh doanh chuyn nghip, trc khi ngn hang thng mai c th tr thnh tp on ti chnh Vit Nam.
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Th t: Trn thi trng chng khoan, ngh Chinh phu c chnh sch buc mi doanh nghip c phn u phi ln sn, tng bc dp b th trng IPO khng chnh thc hay IPO khp kn ni b. chng pha long c phiu, mi doanh nghip c phn ch c php pht hnh b sung khi v ch khi c phng n tng qui m sn lng sn xut kinh doanh mt cach minh bch v tng s vn cn huy ng b sung buc phi ng thi di 2 hnh thc vi t l tng ng nhau, gm: c phiu v t l tri phiu trung, di hn ghi danh cho php thanh ton trc hn ghi r vo tri phiu theo qui nh bng php lut Tri phiu c quyn thanh ton trc hn loi ny l bo v quyn li cho nh u t trn th trng th cp. Theo , php lut cn cho php nha u t c th s dng quyn ny trong vic gy p lc thanh khon cho doanh nghip pht hnh. Tri phiu ny nu duy tr c n k o hn, cho php nha u t c quyn hoc l thanh ton ly tin v 100% theo mnh gi tri phiu, hoc l qui nh mt t l thch hp c quyn chuyn b sung vn iu l thnh c phiu ph thng theo cng thc cng khai ghi trong qui ch pht hnh c phiu tng vn nh sau: s c phiu ph thng thu c bng tng gi tr tri phiu c chuyn i chia cho gi c phiu ca doanh nghip ang hnh thnh ti sn chng khon vo thi im chuyn i. Tm li, Chnh ph cn trin khai quyt lit, ng b cc gii php iu hnh kinh t v m theo Ngh quyt 11 ca Chnh ph, c bit l cc gii php v iu hnh chnh sch tin t, li sut, t gi v qun l hot ng ngn hng lung chu chuyn ngoi t ca nn kinh t v h thng ngn hng c nhiu chuyn bin tch cc. Cn cn thanh ton quc t thng d, d tr ngoi hi nh nc c cng c v thanh khon ngoi t ca h thng ngn hng c m bo trong nhng thng va qua l c s quan trng n nh t gi USD/VND v li sut ngoi t trn th trng trong nc trong nm n.

C. KT LUN:
nh gi th trng ngoi hi trong thi gian qua, mc d nim tin vo ng Vit Nam c cng c nhng tnh trng -la ha vn cha c gii quyt trit ; tn dng ngoi t tng cao, mt s TCTD c h s s dng vn vt 100%, mt s TCTD huy ng vn nc ngoi tng trng tn dng cao, tim n ri ro khi cc ngun vn
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Th trng ngoi hi Vit Nam - Thc trng v gii php GVHD: ThS. Nguyn Th Hnh

nc ngoi b rt t ngt. Trn th trng vn cn tnh trng cc TCTD lch cc quy nh v t gi lm tng bt n trn th trng ngoi hi V vy, nm 2012, NHNN ta cn c nhng gii php iu hnh chnh sch tin t ni chung cng nh th trng ngoi hi ni ring. C th l thc hin cc bin php kim sot cht ch cho vay bng ngoi t m bo tng trng tn dng bng ngoi t ph hp kh nng huy ng vn, ch trng hn ch la ha trong nn kinh t. Ngoi ra, NHNN cn iu hnh t gi v th trng ngoi hi linh hot theo tn hiu th trng, ph hp vi quan h cung - cu ngoi t trn th trng, din bin cn cn thanh ton quc t v cc cn i v m; tip tc hon thin khun kh php l v qun l ngoi hi, khuyn khch xut khu, gim nhp siu, thu ht cc ngun tin u t, kiu hi,... t nc ngoi v nc, to iu kin tng d tr ngoi hi nh nc. Nu thc hin c nhng gii php ny trong tng lai th trng ngoi hi Vit Nam chc chn s c nhng chuyn bin tch cc, gp phn n nh nn kinh t nc nh.

TI LIU THAM KHO:


[1]. http://tailieu.vn/xem-tai-lieu/tieu-luan-thi-truong-ngoai-hoi-viet-nam-.200311.html http://www.petrotimes.vn/thuong-truong/dien-dan-kinh-te/2011/09/thi-truongngoai-hoi-viet-nam-dien-bien-va-xu-the

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Th trng ngoi hi Vit Nam - Thc trng v gii php GVHD: ThS. Nguyn Th Hnh

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