XC SUT V HNG I TRONG QU TRNH PHN TCH MNG MY TNH V MNG TRUYN THNG

Nhm 6: Phm Vit Cnh ng Th Hng Diu Phm Quang Huy V Duy Hng Nguyn T.Qunh Trang
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17/04/2012

Nhm 6- Lp D08VT5

Chng I: Xc sut
Gii thiu
Cc nh ngha c bn u ra: Kt qu u ra th l tt c cc trng hp c th c ca php th ngu nhin Khng gian mu: Tp hp ca tt c trng hp c th c loi i trng hp u ra th c gi l khng gian mu S Bin c: Mt bin c l mt tp hp cc kt qu c chung c tnh Khng gian bin c: Mt khng gian bin c l tng hp ca nhng trng hp c th c ngoi tr nhng bin c ca php th ngu nhin

Chng I: Xc sut

ng dng ca l thuyt xc sut Dng m t nhng kha cnh ca php th ngu nhin nh l khng gian mu, kt qu, bin c Bin c b : Cho bin c A bin c b l tng hp ca tt c kt qu m khng thuc v b A

Cc bin c xung khc: Bin c A v B c pht biu loi tr ln nhau hoc bin c ri rc nu chng khng c phn t no chung

Chng I: Xc sut
Php nhn
Gi s rng kt qu cho php th E 1 l x v kt qu cho php th E2 l y. Sau kt qu cho php th E 1 c cho bi php th E2 l kt qu x,y

Php hon v
Php hon v ra i khi ta c cho bi n i tng v mun sp xp chng theo mt cch bit

Chng I: Xc sut
Php hon v
n phn t ring bit ly t n ti cng mt thi im: S ln hon v ca vic cc phn t ring bit ly t n ti mt thi gian th c biu bin bi P(n, n) v c a ra bi P(n, n) = n! = n (n 1) (n 2) 3 2 1
n phn t ring bit c ly k ti cng mt thi im: Trong trng hp ny s hon v ca n phn t ring bit ly k phn t ti cng mt thi im th c cho bi: P(n, k) = n (n 1) (n k + 1)= n!(n k)!

Chng I: Xc sut
T hp
S t hp ca n i tng c ly k tai mt thi im (t hp chp k ca n phn t) th c gi l h s nh thc

Xc sut
Gi s ta tung mt ng xu n ln. nh ngha bin c A l khi ng xu chm t nga, N A l s ln cc bin c A xut hin khi ng xu tung ln lp i lp li N ln. Xc sut s c c mt nga khi ng xu c tung ln l:

Chng I: Xc sut

Hon v ca cc i tng trong nhm

Gi s rng c n i tng trong n 1 phn t ging nhau, n2 phn t ging nhau, vvv, v n k phn t khng thuc hai loi trn Ta phn loi cc i tng khng vi cc nhn ca chng bi nhm cha cc i tng ny. Mt chui cc kt qu s c phn bit t nhng i tng khc nu cc i tng c ly t cc nhm khc nhau S cc hon v ca n i tng c ly t chui n ti cng mt thi im l: Phng trnh ny nh ngha tn s tng i khi bin c A xy ra

Chng I: Xc sut

Cc tnh cht ca xc sut

1. Xc sut p(A) ca bin c A l mt phn khng m nm trong khong 0 p(A) 1 2. Xc sut ca bin c rng l 0, p() = 0 3. Xc sut ca tt c cc bin c c th xy ra S l duy nht, p(S) = 1 4. Nu A v B l bin c xung khc (khng th xy ra trong cng mt khong thi gian), sau xc sut xut hin bin c A hoc bin c B l p(A B) = p(A) + p(B)

Chng I: Xc sut

Cc cng thc xc sut khc

Nu A v B l hai bin c (khng xung khc), xc sut xy ra bin c A hoc bin c B l
Xc sut bin c A xy ra khi bin c B xy ra c k hiu bi P(A/B) v gi l xc sut c iu kin ca A c cho bi B.

Nu A v B l hai bin c c lp, c th vit p(A|B) = p(A). Khi y,

Xc sut bin c b ca mt bin c cho bi cng thc
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Chng I: Xc sut
Bin ngu nhin
Mt bin ngu nhin n gin l m t bng s ca kt qu qu trnh th ngu nhin. Mi mt kt qu th c gn cho mt gi tr s K hiu mt bin ngu nhin bi ch hoa (tn ca hm) v mt vi gi tr c bit ca bin ngu nhin c k hiu bi ch thng (gi tr ca hm)

Bc ban u gn gi tr s cho kt qu ca php th ngu nhin

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Chng I: Xc sut

Hm phn b tch ly (cdf)

Hm phn b tch ly cho mt bin ngu nhin X c k hiu bi hm F X(x) v gi l xc sut bin ngu nhin th nh hn hoc bng x. Bin c xt n l X x FX (x) = p(X x)
Cc c tnh khc ca F(x)
F() = 0 F() = 1 0 F(x) 1 F(x1) F(x2) khi x1 x2 p(x1 < X x2) = F(x2) F(x1)
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Chng I: Xc sut

Hm phn b tch ly (cdf)

cdf l mt hm dy tng n iu ca x. T phng trnh cui, xc sut x nm trong khong x0 < x x0 + ( ( nh ty ) v c cho bi cng thc
Do vy i lng ca bc nhy trong hm phn b tch ly ti x=x 0 l xc sut x=x 0

cdf trong cc trng hp ri rc:

Hm phn b tch ly cho mt bin ngu nhin ri rc

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Chng I: Xc sut

Hm phn b xc sut (PDF)

Hm phn b xc sut (pdf) cho bin ngu nhin X c k hiu fx(x) v c nh ngha nh l o hm ca F x(x)
T php tch phn ca phng trnh trn, chng ta nhn c Do ta c th vit Din tch di di c tuyn pdf l xc sut p(x1 < X x2)
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Chng I: Xc sut
f(x) c cc c tnh sau:

Hm phn b xc sut (pdf)

vi mi x

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Chng I: Xc sut

Hm mt xc sut (pmf)
pmf c nh ngha nh l xc sut m bin ngu nhin X c gi tr x no v c k hiu bi pX(x) pX(x) p(X = x)

Bin ngu nhin lin tc v ri rc. (a) pdf cho trng hp lin tc (b) pmf cho trng hp ri rc

Lc b ch s di c khi khng c s o ln v vit pmf nh p(x) thay cho pX(x) v c cc tnh cht sau y:
pX (x) 0 vi mi x
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Chng I: Xc sut
K vng v phng sai
K vng ton
Bin ngu nhin lin tc
Bin ngu nhin ri rc

i lc c s dng nh l k hiu khc cho phng sai

= E[X]

Trung bnh (m) ca mt tp hp bin ngu nhin

Phng sai

2 = E[(X -)2]

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Chng I: Xc sut

Bin ngu nhin lin tc ng nht

Mt phn b ng b th c c trng bi mt bin ngu nhin v bin trong khong a-b th a < b

p ng cdf c cho bi

Gi tr trung bnh phng sai cho X c cho bi

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Chng I: Xc sut

Bin ngu nhin theo phn b Gaussian

y l phn b ca nhiu bin ngu nhin dng trong k thut in nh truyn thoi trn knh v tuyn. Phn b Gaussian p dng cho trng hp bin ngu nhin lin tc X c gi tr ngu nhin t n + pdf c cho bi hm

cdf c cho bi hm

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Chng I: Xc sut

Bin ngu nhin theo phn b m

Phn b m p dng cho trng hp bin ngu nhin lin tc X c gi tr t 0 n + Hm pdf
cdf tng ng Gi tr trung bnh v phng sai ca bin ngu nhin X

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Chng I: Xc sut

Bin ngu nhin theo phn b Pareto

Phn b Pareto c th c thc hin bi mt phn b heavy-tailed vi cc thng s thch hp Phn b Pareto c cho bi hm pdf

Tng ng hm cdf

Gi tr trung bnh v phng sai X

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Chng I: Xc sut

Bin ngu nhin lin tc phn b u

Gi s N l 1 bin ngu nhin vi k im ly mu. Hm pmf cho bin ngu nhin ri rc ng nht c xc nh bi hoc

Phn b u cho bin ngu nhin ri rc vi cc gi tr 0,1......5 (a)Hm pmf v (b) hm cdf
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Chng I: Xc sut

Bin ngu nhin theo phn b Bernoulli

Nhiu h thng thng tin c 2 u ra. Xem xt 1 th nghim vi 2 bn u ra ring bit A v xy ra vi xc sut p v q , tng ng. Ta xc nh bin ngu nhin ri rc X vi X=1 khi A xy ra v X=0 khi xy ra
Vi q=1-p:

Gi tr trung bnh v phng sai ca X

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Chng I: Xc sut

Bin ngu nhin theo phn b hnh hc

Phn b ny l gp phi khi thnh cng ca s kin A sau khi xy ra n tht bi. y l trng hp khi m 1 vi thit b gn ti 1 bus v cnh tranh truy nhp. Xc sut thnh cng l a v xc sut li l b=1-a pmf l xc sut thnh cng sau n ln tht bi v c xc nh Hoc Gi tr trung bnh v phng sai cho N l

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Chng I: Xc sut

Bin ngu nhin phn b nh thc

Xt 1 th nghim vi 2 bn u ra ring bit A v A- xy ra vi xc sut a v b, tng ng. Ta xc nh bin ngu nhin ri rc K vi s thi gian nh nhau m A xy ra vi N th nghim hoc s lp i lp li ca cc bin ngu nhin th nghim pmf cho phn b ny
hoc Gi tr trung bnh v phng sai cho K

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Chng I: Xc sut

Bin ngu nhin theo phn b Poisson

Phn b Poisson xc nh xc sut p(k) s kin A xy ra k ln trong 1 khong thi gian nht nh. Xc sut vi Gi s a bin ngu nhin ri rc K vi gi tr 0,1,2... , xc sut K s kin xy ra trong thi gian t l hoc
Gi tr trung bnh v phng sai K
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Chng I: Xc sut
Tm hiu cdf v pdf
Gi s rng th nghim a ra 2 bin ngu nhin ri rc X v Y. Ta xc nh lin hp cdf ca X v Y nh sau

Khi 2 bin ngu nhin c lp, chng ta c th vit

V vy vi cc bin ngu nhin c lp gn vi hm phn phi tch ly

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Chng I: Xc sut
Gi tr k vng S tng quan
S tng quan gia bin ngu nhin c xc nh nh sau

Phng sai
Phng sai ca mt bin ngu nhin Phng sai gia 2 bin ngu nhin H s tng quan XY

Khi ta chia 2 bin ngu nhin t cng mt cch, h s tng quan c vit li

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Chng I: Xc sut

Thay i bin ngu nhin

Chng trnh ton hc thng c cc hm to ra cc bin ngu nhin theo phn b v phn b chun. Tuy nhin, khi m phng thng tin cc h thng, cn to ra lu lng mng theo cc loi phn b

To s ngu nhin
Cc phng php
Phn b u Phng php nghch o Phng php loi tr Phng php ly mu gi tr
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1.20 bin ngu nhin theo phn b Pareto

Phn b Pareto c m t bng pdf

y a l mt tham s thch hp v b>0 l tham s c th.

1.21 Bin ngu nhin ri rc

Trong phn tho lun di y l mt s bin ngu nhin di dc hu ch cho vic m phng mng

1.23 Bin ngu nhin theo phn phi Beroulli

Gi s c 2 bin ngu nhin v c xc xut xy ra l p v q.Bin ngu nhin ri rc X xy ra X=1 hoc X=0. Mt khi chng xy ra ta c th vit p (1) = p (1.56) p (0) = q (1.57) suy ra p=1-q hoc p(x) tn ti di biu thc p(x)q=(x)+p(x-1) (1.58) Gi tr trung bnh v phng sai cho X =p (1.59) 2= P (1 - p ) (1.60)

1.14 Cc phn phi nh phn . ( a) PMF v (b ) l CDF tng ng

1.22 Bin ngu nhin ri rc ng nht

Gi s N l mt bin ngu nhin v c ly mu ti k im. Cc PMF cho cc bin ngu nhin ri rc ng nht c xc nh bi cng thc 1 1 = 0 < 1 > Trong n l s mu

Phn b ng u cho mt bin ngu nhin ri rc c gi tr 0,..., 5 a)PMF v b) CDF tng ng

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1.24 Bin ngu nhin theo phn phi hnh hc

PMF l xc sut thnh cng sau khi n tht bi lp i lp li v c cho bi = = . 0 (1.61)

1.25 Bin ngu nhin theo phn phi nh thc

C th vit PMF cho phn phi ny nh sau

= =

(1.65)

1.26 Bin ngu nhin theo phn phi Poisson

Phn phi Poisson xc nh xc sut p (k ) l mt s kin xy ra k ln trong mt khong thi gian nht nh . Xc sut c a ra bi = =
!

(1.77)

khi a>0 v k=0;1;.... a=t Gi tr trung bnh v phng sai cho K =t (1.80) ^2= t (1.81)

1.27 H thng vi nhiu bin ngu nhin 1.28 Mi quan h gia hm phn phi tch ly v hm mt cng sut
PMF p ng cc mi quan h sau y . (, ) = 1 (1.100) Hai bin ngu nhin c lp khi PMF c th c th hin nh sn phm ca cc PMF c nhn , = ( = ) ( = ) (1.101)

1.29 PMF t hn hp PMF

Mt bin ngu nhin c m t bng pmf () = ( ) Nu th nghim ngu nhin to ra hai bin ngu nhin X v Y , sau ta c 2 PMF c a ra bi: =

(, )

= (, ) T nh ngha ca PMF ta c () = 1v () = 1

1.30 Gi tr k vng
Pmf gip chng ta tm thy gi tr k vng ca mt trong cc bin ngu nhin: = = .

1.31 S tng quan

S tng quan gia hai bin ngu nhin c xc nh bi cng thc: = = , (1.108)

1.32 Phng sai

Phng sai ca bin ngu nhin c xc nh bi cng thc:
2 = = 2 2

(1.109)

1.33 H s phng sai

H s phng sai ca hai bin ngu nhin c xc nh bi cng thc : = = , (1.111) Theo phng trnh (1.108) v (1.111) ta c th suy ra: =

1.34 Bin i bin ngu nhin

1.34.1 Phn b lin tc

Gi s ta c mt bin ngu nhin X vi bit hm phn phi tch ly(pdf) v hm mt cng sut(sdf) v mt bin ngu nhin Y l hm ca X: Y= g(X) Xc sut X nm trong khong t x v x+dx c tnh nh sau: < + = = (1.119) T cho thy v (x) lun lun tich cc.

1.34.2 Phn b ri rc
Trong trng hp ri rc nguyn l c bn ca xc sut cho: = (1.140) Ti l xc nh pmf ca ngun bin ngu nhin v l xc nh pmf cho ch ca bin ngu nhin .Gi tr ca Y thng qu gi tr ca X c vit bi cng thc: Y= g(X) (1.141)

1.35 To s ngu nhin. 1.35.1 Phn b u 1.35.2 Phng php nghch o

To ra 1 s ngu nhin tun theo mt phn b cn da trn nguyn l xc sut.

th 1.16: S bin i ca y qua x

1.Ngun s ngu nhin x l 1 phn b u 2.S gi tr ca F(y) ng vi s gi tr ca x. F(y) c tnh ton trn 1 bng hin th. 3.Gi tr tm c ca y ty theo phng trnh (1.145).Nu hm nghch o khng c gi tr , y l s chn la theo F(y) F(y+) . Phng php c th hin th 1.16.

1.35.3 Phng php loi b

Hnh1.17 Phng php loi b. 1.Ngun s ngu nhin x s dng thu c c phn b u. 2.Cc gi tr ca x a ra cng mc tiu y=x vi xc sut:

P(acceptx)=

(1.148)
(1.149)

=(b-a)f(y)

1.35.4 Phng php ly mu quan trng

Phng php ly mu quan trng l tng qut t phng php loi b

1.Ngun s ngu nhin x thu c c phn b u. 2.Phng php nghch o s dng g(y) ghp vo cc gi tr y thu c. 3.Chp nhn cc mu y vi xc sut:

p(acceptx)=

()

(1.152)

Hng i trong mng my tnh v mng truyn thng

KHI NIM Hng i l mt trong nhng cng c quan trng nht cho vic s l truyn ti trong h thng thng tin. Vic nghin cu n cho php chng ta gii p rt nhiu nhng thc mc v hiu sut ca h thng. Hng i l mt b nh m c kh nng ghi, c d liu mt cch ng thi, n c dng ghi cc gi tin ang ch c x l.

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GII THIU CHUNG

MT S V D V HNG I TRONG I SNG
Mt s lng bnh nhn trong phng ch khm ca bc s .
Mt s khch hng trong mt dy chuyn thanh ton ca ca hng

Mt s lng cc gi d liu c lu tr trong b m ca rooter.

Mt s lng cng vic in n c mt trong b nh m ca my in.

Mt s lng cc my trm yu cu truy nhp ti mng LAN.

MC TIU NGHIN CU L THUYT HNG I

Vic phn tch hng i l d on hiu sut h thng, nh l c bao nhiu yu cu s l cho mi bc thi gian, hay s chm tr mt yu cu trc khi c x l. Vic phn tch hng i gip chng ta d on c kch thc ca hng i hay b m, vic ny l tin cho vic thit k h thng c kh nng p ng tt trong thi gian di h thng tn ti. Vic nghin cu ny c thc hin qua vic tm hiu cc yu cu i vi my ch, sau y l mt s v d v yu cu i vi my ch.

MC TIU NGHIN CU L THUYT HNG I (tip)

i vi cc h thng thi gian lin tc th ch c duy nht yu cu n hoc i din ra ti mt thi gian nht nh. Tuy nhin, qu trnh phn tch cc h thng chung cho yu cu mi n hoc cho cc thng k hin thi c chng minh l kh khn . Hu ht trong cc h thng truyn thng v my tnh, min k thut s. Trong cc min ny thi gian c o bng cc n v ri rc hoc bng cc bc kch thc hu hn. H qu l, c th nhn nhiu bc i, n trong mt thi gian nht nh.

Chng ta s thy rng cc h thng thi gian ri rc l n gin cho vic phn tch hn cc h thng thi gian lin tc, v vy mc tiu nghin cu chnh l cc h thng di rc thi gian.

 MT S V D IN HNH CH RA CC YU CU PHC V I VI MY CH
Mi ngi xp hng ti mt ni rt tin ca ngn hng v cc khch hng thng c cc yu cu quen thuc .N nh l cc khch hng hay cc yu cu quen thuc cng n my ch, v chng phi xp hng ch c x l. Cc my trm kt ni n cc mng cc b (LAN) , Ni cc phng tin truyn thng (v d Ethernet Cp) i din cho cc ngun chia s, trong khi cc ng dng truyn thng i din cho cc yu cu v my ch phc v. Trong b nh my tnh cc yu cu b nh, i din cho cc yu cu v cc giao thc phn gii, gii quyt xung t truy cp b nh i din cho cc my ch.

 C TRNG CA HNG I TRONG CC H THNG RI RC

Tng s yu cu trong h thng. S lng khch hng c th yu cu dch v ti cng mt thi gian nht nh. S lng , c bao nhiu khch hng c th ri khi hng i ca my ch trong mt bc thi gian nht nh. Nguyn tc phc v cho vic quyt nh khch hng c phc v ngay hoc khng. V d v cc nguyn tc dch v, n u tin phc v u tin. (FIFO), hoc theo nguyn tc la chn ngu nhin, xt theo tiu ch nht nh, hoc theo mc u tin. Kch thc hng i phc v khch hng phi ch i.

 MT S K HIU V L THUYT HNG I

K HIU Kendall A :(Arrival statistics)thng k s liu n. B :(Service or departure statistics) S liu thng k dch v hoc . C :S ca my ch code , hoc hiu l s lng my ch. N :kch thc hng i. P :Quy m khch hng . D :Xc nh, quy trnh c nh n hoc dch v gi dch v. M :Markovian, qu trnh Poisson. G :Thi gian lin tc.

THNG LNG HNG I

KHI NIM
Thng lng l lu lng d liu c th i qua hng i trong mt thi gian nht nh.
Khi chng ta ni v thng lng ca cc gi tin, chng ta thng nhm vi vic cho cc gi tin thng qua nguyn vn, khng va chm hoc cc vn khc. trnh nhm ln chng ta s s dng thut ng thng qua ng cc gi tin gi m khng c s sai lc .

THNG LNG HNG I

CNG THC THNG LNG
Thng thng chng ta quan tm trong vic c tnh t l khch hng ri khi hng i, c th hin nh khch hng cho mi bc thi gian hoc khch hng mi giy.
Chng ta gi y l t l sn lng trung bnh lu lng truy cp Na (trong), hoc thng qua (Th) ca hng i. Th = thng lng d liu ra = Na (trong) n v ca Th th hin cc gi tin / bc thi gian. Ch rng iu ny ng rng Th l th hin s tch cc.

MT S LOI HNG I C BN
M/M/1 thi gian ri rc hng i c nh thc, Poisson, n v i. Ti mt bc thi gian nht nh nhiu nht l mt khch hng n v nhiu nht l mt khch hng i. Hng i c kch thc b m v hn v quy m pht trin cng l v hn.

M/M/1/B hng i c nh thc, Poisson, n v i.ti mt bc thi gian, nhiu nht l mt khch hng n v nhiu nht l mt khch hng i. Hng i c mt b m hu hn kch thc B v quy m pht trn l v hn. Hng i ny thng xuyn gp phi khi bc thi gian qu ngn ngi m ch c mt khch hng c th n hoc khi hnh trong thi gian .

MT S LOI HNG I C BN
Hng i M / M / J / B c nh thc, Poisson, n v i.ti mt bc thi gian nht nh, nhiu nht l mt khch hng n v nhiu nht l mt khch hng c th khi hnh thng qua mt trong cc my ch J c sn. Hng i c mt b m hu hn kch thc v quy m m rng l v hn.
y l loi hng i c th gp phi khi mt my ch c th l bn rn phc v mt khch hng ti mt bc thi gian nht nh v cc my ch cn li tr nn c sn phc v khch hng khc trong hng i.

Mm/M/1/B hng i c nh thc, Poisson, n v khi i.l mt trong nhng my ch trong hng i, v mt bc thi gian nht nh, ti hu ht cc khch hng m n nhiu nht l mt khch hng i bi v c mt my ch. Hng i c mt b m hu hn kch thc B v quy m m rng l v hn.

MT S LOI HNG I C BN
M/Mm/1/B hng i c nh thc, Poisson, n v i.L mt trong nhng my ch trong hng i, v mt bc thi gian nht nh, nhiu nht mt khch hng n v hu ht cc khch hng J i bi v cc my ch c th x l cc khch hng J trong mt bc thi gian. Hng i c mt b m hu hn kch thc B v quy m m rng l v hn.

NGUYN TC PHN LOI

Cc hng i chng ta s nghin cu y s l mt trong cc loi sau y: n duy nht, hng i i c kch thc v hn trong qu trnh chuyn i ma trn P l tridiagonal. Mt hng i s c k hiu l biu tng M/M/1. n duy nht,i duy nht, hng i c kch thc hu hn, trong P l tridiagonal.Mt hng i s c k hiu l biu tng M/M/1/B. Nhiu n ,hng i i duy nht hu hn, trong P l thp hn Hessenberg. Mt hng i s c k hiu biu tng l Mm/M/1/B. n n, i nhiu, hng i c kch thc hu hn, trong P l trn Hessenberg. Mt hng i s c k hiu biu tng l M/Mm/1/B.

HIU SUT () HAY XC SUT TRUY NHP(pa):

Hiu sut () ca hng i hay xc sut truy nhp ca n (pa) v c bn cung cp cho cc t l phn trm v khch hng hoc cc gi truyn trong mt bc thi gian thng qua h thng tng i so vi tng s n khch hng hoc cc gi trong mt bc thi gian. Chng ta xc nh xc sut truy nhp (pa) hoc hiu sut l t l tng i lu lng truy cp trung bnh u ra trn lu lng truy cp trung bnh u vo.

Ch rng xc sut truy cp hoc hiu sut khng bao gi m v khng bao gi c th nhiu hn mt.

HIU SUT(n)HAY XC SUT TRUY NHP(pa):

Thng lng v kh nng truy cp l rt hu ch trong vic m t hnh vi ca mt h thng.Chng ta s thy rng cc ng cong th hin s thay i hiu qu vi cc tham s hng i khng c thu nh li phin bn bin th thng qua vi cc thng s hng i. im ny c minh ha r rng trong hnh. 14,4 trn 515 trang, hoc hnh. 14,20 trn trang 538. Nu hng i ba khch hng trn mc trung bnh cho mi bc thi gian, trong khi c th c 5 khch hng n, thng lng Th = 3 trong khi hiu sut ca n l = 3/5 = 60%. Nu hng i bn khch hng trung bnh cho mi bc thi gian trong khi ti a su khch hng c kh nng c th li, thng lng l Th = 4 v hiu qu ca n l = 4/6 = 66.67%.

HNG I M/M/1
Gii thiu:
Mt hng i M/M/1 trong bt k time step no u ch c mt khch hng n v mt khch hng i. V d hng i M/M/1 l b m first in first out S lng khch hng hoc cc gi tin c lu tr trong hng i l trng thi ca h thng

HNG I M/M/1
Ti time step nht nh, xc sut gi tin n l a, iu tng ng vi mt s kin c khai sinh hoc tng ln ca hng i.Xc sut mt gi tin khng n c l b = 1 a . Xc sut mt gi tin ri khi hng i l c, tng ng vi kt thc mt s kin hoc gim i hng i.Xc sut m mt gi tin khng ri hng i l d = 1 c cc.Xc sut c i din cho kh nng x l cc khch hng hoc cc gi tin trong ca my ch hng i trong mt bc thi gian .

HNG I M/M/1
S chuyn i trng thi cho hng i M/M/1 ri rc thi gian:

HNG I M/M/1
Hiu nng hng i: Thng lng
= =

packets/time step
packets or customs

Kch thc hng i trung bnh

= l ch s phn phi
1

Thi gian ch =
(1)

time steps

HNG I M/M/1/B
Hng i ny l tng t nh hng i ri rc thi gian M/M/1 ngoi tr hng i c B kch thc hu hn S chuyn i trng thi cho hng i M/M/1/B ri rc thi gian

HNG I M/M/1/B
Hiu nng hng i M/M/1/B Thng lng(Th)
= ()=c(1-b0 ) packets/time step

Hiu sut ()
() = () (10 ) =

Xc sut mt gi tin (L) L=

() = ()

Kch thc hng i trung bnh ( ) = =1

packets

HNG I M/M/1/B
1.Thng lng ca hng i khng th vt qu gi tr ti a cho lu lng truy cp u ra trung bnh 2. Hiu sut ca hng i l rt gn vi 100% cho n khi lu lng u vo gn nh lu lng u ra ti a c. 3. Xc sut mt gi tin l lun lun tn ti, nhng xc sut bt u tng khi lu lng u vo gn vi lu lng gi tin u ra ti a c.

HNG I M/M/1/B
4. tr gi tin tng mnh khi lu lng u vo gn vi lu lng gi tin u ra ti a c. 5.iu kin tc nghn xy ra ngay sau khi lu lng u vo vt qu lu lng u ra ti a c. Tc nghn c c trng bi hiu qu gim,mt gi tin tng, v tr tang ln. 6. tr ny t n mt gi tr ti a mt gi tr ti a c xc nh bi kch thc ti a ca hng i v lu lng u ra ti a c. tr ti a c th l xp l:
tr ti a = =20

time steps

HNG I M/M/1/B
Gii hn hiu nng hng i Thng lng ti a: Th(max)= () =c Hiu sut ti thiu min = c Xc sut mt gi cc i L(max)=1- c Thi gian ch ti a
W(max)=

Hng i /M/1/B
Ti bt k time-step no, hu ht m khch hng c th n v ch mt khch hng c th di i. Hiu nng hng i M m /M/1/B: Chng ta thy rng tng kch thc hng i lm gim xc sut mt gi m thng lng ch thay i nh. Thi gian ch gn nh tng gp i

Hng i /M/1/B
/M/1/B thng lng,hiu sut,xc sut mt gi v tr t th vi lu lng u vo m=2, B=10 v c=0.5

Hng i /M/1/B
Gii hn hiu nng trn hng i M m /M/1/B Thng lng cc i Th(max)=c Hiu sut cc tiu
(min)=

Xc sut mt gi cc i L(max)= 1

tr cc i
W(max)=
()

Hng i M/ /1/B
Trong hng i M/ /1/B ti bt k mt time step no,nhiu nht mt khch hng c th n v nhiu nht m khch hng c th ri i Chng ta s bt gp loi hng i ny khi chng ta nghin cu mng chuyn mch hng i first in first out (FIFO) ti mi cng u vo

Hng i M/ /1/B
Hiu nng hng i M/ M m /1/B Thng lng ca hng i = = (1 ) Xc sut mt gi tin L =
() ()

= ,0

Hiu sut ca hng i = 1 Kch thc hng i trung bnh = =0

M hnh hng i D/M/1/M

L m hnh hng i m cc gi tin n hng i vi tc c nh nhng ri khi hng i 1 cch ngu nhin Xt s chuyn i trng thi ca h thng vi trng hp n = 4 v B = 4.

Hnh 2.8: S chuyn i trng thi ri rc cho h thng D/M/1/B

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M hnh hng i D/M/1/M

Hiu nng ca h thng:
Dung lng u vo ()
(in)=
1

Hiu nng ca h thng =

()

= cn (1 -

2 =0 ,0 )

Thng lng Th
Th = c.1,0 + c Xc sut mt gi L L= Kch thc gi trung bnh =
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1 =0

=0 , =

c (1 -

2 =0 ,0 )

() ()

= d.n. 1,
=0 . ,

1 =0

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M hnh hng i M/D/1/B

L m hnh hng i m cc gi tin n hng i 1 cch ngu nhin nhng ri khi hng i vi tc c nh Xt s chuyn i trng thi ca h thng vi n =4 v B = 4:

Hnh 2.9: S chuyn i trng thi ri rc cho h thng M/D/1/B

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M hnh hng i M/D/1/B

Hiu nng ca h thng:
Lu lng h thng ()

() = N.a
Thng lng Th Th = a. Hiu nng ca h thng = Xc sut mt gi L L=
) 1 = x () 1 =0 2 =0 , () =0 1, 1

= x

=0 1,

Kch thc gi trung bnh =

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=0 . ,

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H thng trao i thng tin chui Markov

Thng thng, mt h thng truyn thng thng c mi lin h hoc ph thuc vo chui Markov hoc hng i. M hnh h thng m t qu trnh kt ni bng bus hoc bng knh thng thng.H thng c th l card iao din mng Ethernet trong my tnh kt ni ti mng LAN:
Trafic source: ngun Transmit buffer: b m Medium access module: module truy nhp

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Hnh 2.10: H thng chui Markov / hng i

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H thng trao i thng tin chui Markov

Mi thnh phn trong h thng c th l cc module ring l s dng chui Markov. Gi s m hnh h thng chui Markov c m t bi: trng thi S1 dng cho ngun, trng thi S2 dng cho hng i, trng thi S3 c dng cho module truy nhp. Thng thng, s trng thi trong h thng l S1.S2.S3 Sau khi xt n s nh hng ca cc thnh phn v gii quyt cc vn trong hng i th s trng thi trong h thng l S1 + S2 + S3. Tuy nhin chng ta khng th gii quyt c cc vn trong mi h thng ring l v chng ph thuc cht ch vo nhau
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H thng trao i thng tin chui Markov

Chng ta c th khi qut cc vn bng cch xt mt h thng chui Markov gm n module.Module th i c c trng bi 4 tham s:
Ma trn chuyn i trng thi Vecto phn b trng thi Xc sut tng ng vi cc tham s u vo Xc sut tng ng vi cc tham s u ra

Cc thng s ca Pi ph thuc vo Si, , ca cc module khc v ca c h thng Ta coi , l cc bin c lp. i vi mi module trong h thng, phng trnh n nh trng thi nh sau: ( , , ) . = (0 , < )
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V d v h thng ph thuc vo chui Markov

M hnh h thng chui Markov:

Gm n module ph thuc vo chui Markov

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V d v h thng ph thuc vo chui Markov

S trng thi trong h thng: N=

1 =0

Vi Ki l s trng thi trong module th i

Nu cc module u c K trng thi th N =

Nu ta coi h thng ny nh cc h thng truyn thng v ph thuc vo chui Markov th s trng thi s l :N = = =1
Nu cc module c K trng thi th N = n.K

i vi h thng in hnh th n.K nh hn nhiu so vi V d: n = 5, K = 10 th N = 100000 v N = 50.

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Gii php chung cho cc h thng trao i thng tin chui Markov
gii quyt cc vn , ngi ta a ra thut ton: B0: Khi to Si: Thit lp cc gi tr ban u khc 0 cho tt c cc vecto (0) vi 0 i n. Tt nhin, tng cc vecto ca cc thnh phn phi bng 1 B1: Uc tnh Pi: Cc yu t ca ma trn chuyn i trng thi () c th c xc nh t (), .Ban u, chng ta t k= 0 v xc nh (0) B2: Xc nh Si : Si, c(k) = (). (). Vi gi tr k ban u bng 0 B3: Xc nh li (): = , () - (). B4: Cp nht gi tr ca (): + 1 = + . () (0 < ) B5: Nng cao gi tr c tnh ca . Chng ta c th lp li cc bc 1-4 vi cc gi tr mi ( + 1) cho n khi cc li tng mc chp nhn c. Vi l ngng li chp nhn c. = =0
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