Chng trnh ging dy kinh t Fulbright Nin kha 2006-07

Kinh t v m

Cc ng dng ca m hnh

Cc ng dng ca m hnh kinh t v m

Chng ta dnh phn ln hc k ny xy dng k lng mt m hnh kinh t v m c th p dng phn tch tc ng ca cc bin c kinh t da trn bn bin ni sinh chnh: sn lng thc Y, li sut thc r, mc gi P v t gi hi oi thc . n y, chng ta c th vn dng nhng hiu bit v cc thay i ca nhng bin ny suy lun ra cc tc ng i vi tiu dng C, u t I, tit kim quc dn S, xut khu rng NX, t l tht nghip u, t l lm pht , li sut danh ngha i v t gi hi oi danh ngha e. M hnh c m t mt cch n gin nht bng bn phng trnh sau: (1) (2) Y = C(Y - T) + I(r) + G + NX() ; phng trnh IS

M = L(Y , r + e ) P Y = Y + (P - Pe) r = r*

; phng trnh LM ; phng trnh AS ; nn kinh t m nh

(3) (4)

M hnh ny l cch trnh by tng qut cho cc trng hp c bit th hin qua vic a vo cc rng buc v gi nh i vi cc phng trnh nh sau:
A. Nn kinh t ng (Closed economy, k hiu l C):

Ba bin ni sinh: Y, r, P NX 0, nn phng trnh (1) tr thnh: (1C) Y = C(Y - T) + I(r) + G

Khng c phng trnh (4). H phng trnh: Y = C(Y - T) + I(r) + G ; phng trnh IS ; phng trnh LM ; phng trnh AS

(1C) (2) (3)

M = L(Y , r + e ) P
Y = Y + (P - Pe)

David E. Spencer/Chau Van Thanh

Bin dch: Kim Chi Hiu nh: Chu Vn Thnh

Chng trnh ging dy kinh t Fulbright Nin kha 2006-07

Kinh t v m

Cc ng dng ca m hnh

Di hn: [M hnh c in]

P = Pe, nn phng trnh (3) tr thnh: Y= Y

(3-lr) (1C) (2) (3-lr)

M hnh hon chnh bao gm cc phng trnh (1C), (2) v (3-lr). H phng trnh: Y = C(Y - T) + I(r) + G
M = L(Y , r + e ) P

; phng trnh IS ; phng trnh LM ; phng trnh AS

Y= Y

Y c xc nh bng phng trnh (3-lr). Vi Y cho trc, r c xc nh bng phng trnh (1C). Vi Y v r cho trc, P c xc nh bng phng trnh (2). [Phn i c in1].

Ngn hn: [M hnh IS-LM, AD-SRAS]

Nu e = 0, phng trnh tr thnh:

Ms = L(Y , r ) P

(2C-sr)
(1C) (2C-sr) (3)

M hnh hon chnh bao gm cc phng trnh (1C), (2C-sr) v (3). H phng trnh: Y = C(Y - T) + I(r) + G Ms = L(Y , r ) P Y = Y + (P - Pe) ; phng trnh IS ; phng trnh LM ; phng trnh AS

S phn bit gia cc bin thc v bin danh ngha theo l thuyt trong m hnh c in, trong nhn mnh cc bin danh ngha khng nh hng n cc bin thc (v d thay i cung tin khng nh hng n cc bin thc - tnh trung lp ca tin).
David E. Spencer/Chau Van Thanh 2 Bin dch: Kim Chi Hiu nh: Chu Vn Thnh

Chng trnh ging dy kinh t Fulbright Nin kha 2006-07

Kinh t v m

Cc ng dng ca m hnh

B. Nn kinh t m nh (Small and Open economy, k hiu l O):

M hnh ca mt nn kinh t m nh bao gm c phng trnh (4). Khi phng trnh ny c thay vo cc phng trnh (1) v (2), chng ta c: Y = C(Y - T) + I(r*) + G + NX() Ms = L(Y , r * + e ) P

(1O) (2O)

iu mang li cho chng ta ba bin ni sinh: Y, , v P.

Di hn: [M hnh c in ca nn kinh t m]

(1O) (2O)
(3-lr)

M hnh hon chnh bao gm cc phng trnh (1O), (2O) v (3-lr). H phng trnh: Y = C(Y - T) + I(r*) + G + NX()
Ms = L(Y , r * + e ) P Y= Y Y c xc nh bng phng trnh (3-lr). Vi Y cho trc, c xc nh bng phng trnh (1O). Vi Y v cho trc, P c xc nh bng phng trnh (2O). [Phn i c in].

Ngn hn: [M hnh Mundell-Fleming]

Vi P v P* cho trc, e l l vi . V th, phng trnh (1O) tr thnh: Y = C(Y - T) + I(r*) + G + NX()

(1O-sr)

Nu e = 0, phng trnh tr thnh: Ms = L(Y , r * ) P

(2O-sr)

M hnh hon chnh bao gm cc phng trnh (1O-sr), (2O-sr) v (3). H phng trnh:

David E. Spencer/Chau Van Thanh

Bin dch: Kim Chi Hiu nh: Chu Vn Thnh

Chng trnh ging dy kinh t Fulbright Nin kha 2006-07

Kinh t v m

Cc ng dng ca m hnh

(1O-sr) (2O-sr) (3)

Y = C(Y - T) + I(r*) + G + NX() Ms = L(Y , r * ) P Y = Y + (P - Pe)

T gi hi oi th ni:
Vi P cho trc, e iu chnh tho phng trnh (1O-sr)

T gi hi oi c nh:
e c n nh e = ef; ngn hng trung ng phi iu chnh cung tin duy tr e mc c nh. Kt qu l, M tr thnh mt bin ni sinh.

Mt s ng dng:
Bn nn c kh nng phn tch c cc tc ng ca mi bin c kinh t sau y i vi cc bin ni sinh ph hp (Y, r, v P, trong nn kinh t ng, cng nh trong nn kinh t m) trong nn kinh t ng v nn kinh t m nh, trong ngn hn v di hn. Trong nn kinh t m nh ngn hn, bn nn xem xt c hai c ch t gi hi oi th ni v c nh. 1. Thay i ca thm ht ngn sch chnh ph. 2. Thay i t nh trong tiu dng (thay i c tnh ngoi sinh). 3. Thay i t nh trong u t (thay i c tnh ngoi sinh). 4. Thay i cung tin. 5. Thay i t nh ca cu tin (thay i c tnh ngoi sinh). 6. Tng thm ht ngn sch chnh ph ti phn cn li ca th gii (ch i vi nn kinh t m nh). 7. Thay i thu nhp khu (ch i vi nn kinh t m nh).

David E. Spencer/Chau Van Thanh

Bin dch: Kim Chi Hiu nh: Chu Vn Thnh

Chng trnh ging dy kinh t Fulbright Nin kha 2006-07

Kinh t v m

Cc ng dng ca m hnh

M rng: Cc trng hp c bit v m hnh M hnh IS*-LM* cho nn kinh t m nh (ngn hn) c s khc bit v t gi (r?r*)
Trong : r = r* + ?

Vi ? bao gm ri ro quc gia v ri ro t gi [d (ee e)/e] Y = C(Y - T) + I(r*+?) + G + NX(e) M/P = L(r*+?, Y)

M hnh IS-LM cho nn kinh t m ln (ngn hn) c xc nh bi:

Hay: Y = C(Y - T) + I(r) + G + NFI(r) M/P = L(r, Y) Y = C(Y - T) + I(r) + G + NX(e) M/P = L(r, Y) NX(e) = NFI(r)

David E. Spencer/Chau Van Thanh

Bin dch: Kim Chi Hiu nh: Chu Vn Thnh