Professional Documents
Culture Documents
2006--2011
v Trin vng 2012
2012--2015
TS. L Xun Ngha
Ph ch tch y ban Gim st Ti chnh Quc gia
9.00%
8.46%
8.44%
8.50%
8.23%
8.00%
7.79%
7.50%
7.34%
7.00%
6.50%
6.79% 6.89%
7.08%
6.78%
6.31%
6.00%
5.89%
5.50%
5.32%
5.00%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Ngun: TCTK.
2
48
46.5
46
44
42
42.7
41.9
41.5
41.5
40
38
36
34.6
34
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Ngun: TCTK.
3
16.2
24.3
30.9
25.6
25.8
25.9
33.9
36.1
35.2
38.1
38.5
45.7
2006
Khu vc nh nc
35.2
37.2
33.9
40.5
38.1
38.9
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Khu vc ngoi nh nc
Ngun: Tnh ton t s liu ca Nin gim thng k 2010 (trang 140).
5
ng gp ca cc nhn t vn
vn,, lao ng v TFP
vo tng trng kinh t Vit Nam giai on 2000
2000--2005 v 2006
2006--2010
(n v
v:: %)
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Giai on 2000-2005
Vn (K)
lao ng (L)
Giai on 2006-2010
Nng sut nhn t tng hp (TFP)
Ngun: Bi Trinh.
7
2007
Xut khu
2008
Nhp khu
2009
2010
Nhp siu
2011
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
8,3%
20%
20,1%
14%
12,4%
8%
19.87
18.13
15
12.75
9.67
10
8.71
6.57
4.04
11.75
6.52
3.01
0.79
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Ngun: TCTK.
9
40
36.3
32.6
35
27.2
30
25
24.6
20
15
10
5
0
2001-2005
2006-2010
Quy m thu
Quy m chi
Ngun: B Ti chnh.
10
60
50
40
30
20
2007
N cng
2008
N nc ngoi
2009
2010
N cng nc ngoi
Ngun: B Ti chnh.
11
16000000
1200
14000000
12000000
1000
10000000
800
80000000
600
60000000
400
40000000
200
20000000
0
1/4/2006
0
1/4/2007
1/4/2008
1/4/2009
1/4/2010
1/4/2011
1/4/2012
VNIndex
Ngun: HSX.
12
Nm
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
c 2011
Tc tng M2
32,0
41,2
20,3
27,5
29,8
~10
Tc tng tn dng
24,8
48,9
23,4
37,5
31,2
12-13%
0,97
1,16
1,08
1,23
1,34
1,15
0,71
0,90
0,86
1,06
1,16
1,02
T l cho vay
vay//huy ng (LDR) giai on 2008
2008--2011
Nm
2008
2009
2010
c 2011
LDR
0,95
1,01
1,01
1,02-1,03
Ngun: UBGSTCQG.
13
Ngun: UBGSTCQG.
14
2011
Kch bn tt
Kch bn
trung bnh
Trin vng
kinh t 2013
Kinh t th gii
Tc tng trng GDP
4%
3,2-4%
2,4-3,2%
3,6%
Cc nc pht trin
1,6%
2,0-2,5%
1-2%
2,6%
6,4%
5 -6%
4-5%
6,3%
7,5%
5,7%-7,5%
3,5-5,7%
7,7%
Cc nc pht trin
4-5%
3-4%
7-8%
6-7%
2011
Kch bn tt
Kch bn
trung bnh
Trin vng
kinh t 2013
5,89
6-6,3
5,5-5,9
6,4-6,7
18,13
8-10
8-10
6-7
96,26
(33,3%)
107,8-108,8
(12-13%)
105,9-107,8
(10-12%)
121,8-123,9
(15-17%)
105,77
(25%)
112,2-113,2
(6-7%)
113,2-114,3
(7-8%)
129,2-131,5
(12-14%)
9,9%
4-5%
5-7%
6-8%
Kch bn trung bnh: Tng trng kinh t nm 2012 c th t mc 5,6-5,9%. yl kch bn xy ra trong
iu kin nh sau:
o
T trng u t ca khu vc t nhn chim 40,5-41% tng u t ton x hi; trong khi t trng ca
khu vc nh nc l 36,5-37%.
20
Mt nhim v trng tm nht v cn thc hin ngay trong qu I/2012 l n nh thanh khon ca h thng
ngn hng thng qua cc cng c sau:
o
Tng DTBB tin gi, to ngun cho NHNN iu ha vn t ngn hng tha sang ngn hng thiu
vn.
M rng c ch cho php cc ngn hng kinh doanh vng ti khon s dng ngun vn t vng b
sung cho thanh khon ca h thng ngn hng.
Khi c iu kin thch hp (tm l lm pht gim mnh, lm pht tip tc c kim sot tt) th c
th b trn li sut huy ng v gim li sut tn dng (bin php ny d kin c th thc hin t u
qu II/2012).
22
24