Professional Documents
Culture Documents
KHOA SAU I HC
: Nhm 1
: NH m 2 K18
TP HCM nm 2009
PHN I:
CC TIU CHUN NH GI D N U T
u t l s hy sinh gi tr chc chn thi im hin ti i ly kh nng khng chc chn
gi tr trong tng lai. Vy lm th no bn c th bit c mnh c nn u t hay khng? C cc
tiu chun ph bin sau y thng c s dng trong vic nh gi v la chn cc d n u t:
1) TIU CHUN HIN GI THUN THE NET PRESENT VALUE NPV:
Hin gi thun (NPV) ca mt d n l gi tr ca dng tin d kin trong tng lai c quy v
hin gi tr i vn u t d kin ban u ca d n.
NPV = Ga tr hin ti ca dng tin d kin trong tng lai u t ban u
Cng thc tnh NPV:
NPV = I +
n
CFn
CFt
CF1
CF2
+
+
......
+
=
I
+
2
n
t
(1 + r )
(1 + r )
(1 + r )
t =1 (1 + r )
Trong :
I
: u t ban u
CFt
: i sng kinh t ca d n
Vic tnh ton NPV rt hu ch khi chun b ngn sch cho mt d n, bng php tnh ny nh
u t c th nh gi liu tng gi tr hin ti dng doanh thu d kin trong tng lai c b p ni chi
ph ban u hay khng. Vi mt d n c th, nu NPV dng th nh u t nn tin hnh d n v
ngc li khi NPV m. Tuy nhin trong trng hp c hai s la chn u t loi tr ln nhau tr ln th
nh u t cn phi xt n chi ph c hi na, lc ny, d n no c NPV cao nht s c tin hnh.
V d: Mt doanh nghip d nh a ra th trng mt dng sn phm mi. Chi ph ban u
sn xut sn phm ny (tin mua sm my mc, thit b, chi ph o to nhn vin...) l $100,000. Cc
chi ph qun l d kin l $5,000/nm. Doanh thu t sn phm ny d kin l $30,000/nm. T sut hon
vn l 10%. Sn phm ny d kin s bn trong vng 6 nm.
Theo cng thc trn ta c th tnh ton gi tr hin ti thun ca d n l:
NPV = -100.000 + (30.000-5.000)/(1 + 10%) + (30.000-5.000)/(1 + 10%)2 + (30.000-5.000)/(1 + 10%)3
+ (30.000-5.000)/(1 + 10%)4 + (30.000-5.000)/(1 + 10%)5 + (30.000-5.000)/(1 + 10%)6 = $8881.52 >
0
=> Vy nn tin hnh sn xut loi sn phm mi ny.
Vic tnh ton NPV ph thuc rt nhiu vo tham s t l chit khu r, mi nh u t li c cch
3
nh gi r ring ca mnh. Ngoi ra dng doanh thu, dng chi ph khng ng u, gi tr thanh l ti sn
c nh gia cc nm cng s lm cho vic tnh ton tr nn phc tp hn nhiu.
Li sut chit khu c s dng nh gi gi tr hin ti ca dng tin d kin trong tng lai
phi tng xng vi mc ri ro ca d n. Vn quan trng m chng ta cn bit l li sut chit
khu phi tnh thm mt phn ri ro thch hp. Tht vy khi ri ro ca mt d n bng vi ri ro ca mt
cng ty, v nh th phng thc ti tr ca cng ty cng chnh l ngun vn ban u ca d n, trong
trng hp ny li sut chit khu ph hp cng chnh l chi ph s dng ngun vn trung bnh ca cng
ty.
Vic tnh ton NPV rt hu ch khi chun b ngn sch cho mt d n, bng php tnh ny nh
u t c th nh gi liu tng gi tr hin ti dng doanh thu d kin trong tng lai c b p ni chi
ph ban u hay khng. Vi mt d n c th, nu NPV dng th nh u t nn tin hnh d n v
ngc li khi NPV m. Tuy nhin trong trng hp c hai s la chn u t loi tr ln nhau tr ln th
nh u t cn phi xt n chi ph c hi na, lc ny, d n no c NPV cao nht s c tin hnh.
ng dng tiu chun NPV trong thm nh d n u t:
i vi cc D n u t c lp:
-
i vi cc D n loi tr ln nhau:
-
Nhc im:
-
IRR = r1 + ( r2 r1 )
NPV 1
(1)
NPV 1 + / NPV 2 /
Trong :
IRR: H s hon vn ni b cn ni suy (%)
r1: T sut chit khu thp hn ti NPV1 > 0 gn st 0 nht
r2: T sut chit khu cao hn ti NPV2 < 0 gn st 0 nht.
NPV: Gi tr hin ti thc
=> IRR cn tm (ng vi NPV = 0) s nm gia r1 v r2
ng dng tiu chun IRR vo thm nh D n u t:
Trng hp cc D n c lp ln nhau, d n no c:
-
IRR > r
Bit c khong chnh lch gia t sut thu nhp ni b ca d n u t v chi ph s dng
vn ca doanh nghip. y l mt tiu chun an ton cho php nh gi kh nng b p chi
ph s dng vn ca d n u t so vi tnh ri ro ca n.
Nhc im
-
PV
I
PI =
NPV + I
I
Trng hp cc d n c lp ln nhau
PI > 1: chp nhn d n
PI < 1 : lai b d n
thi k.
- Nhc im: PI khng hon ton c tc dng trong trng hp ngun vn cng ng thi b gii hn
ti bt k mt nm no trong sut khang thi gian hot ng ca d n
PI vn c nhc im so vi NPV: v ging nh IRR, PI khng gii thch c mt cch
trc tip s khc nhau v quy m ca d n.
4. TIU CHUN THI GIAN THU HI VN (THE PAYBACK PERIOD - PP).
Thi gian thu hi vn ca d n l khong thi gian thu hi li vn u t ban u. Xt theo tiu chun
nh gi thu hi vn, thi gian thu hi vn cng ngn d n u t cng tt.
Cc bc tin hnh:
-
Thit lp trc thi gian thu hi vn ti a c th chp nhn c . (thi gian thu hi vn
chun)
s b b qua.
Mt d n c thi gian thu hi vn c chit khu ngn hn ca mt d n khc nhng iu ny
khng c ngha l d n ny c NPV ln hn
PHN 2:
VN DNG CC TIU CHUN NH GI D N U T
TRONG THC TIN
1/ nh gi d n u t trong trng hp ngun vn b gii hn
Trong trng hp cng ty khng sn sng thc hin tt c nhng c hi u t v gii hn
ngun vn cng v gii hn ngun vn mm, ngha l nhu cu vn ln hn ngun vn c sn
C hai trng hp trn qui lut cn bn ca NPV khng p dng c, do phi b sung mt s
cch thc ph thuc vo ngun vn b gii hn trong 1 nm hay nhiu nm.
D n
(triu ng)
100.000
150.000
29.000
140.000
31.000
210.000
22.000
180.000
36.000
15.000
PI
Xp hng
1,15
1,19
1,22
1,10
1,20
Vn u t (triu ng)
140.000
180.000
150.000
3/10A
30.000
500.000
a ca hm s mc tiu cho nhng gii hn khc nhau. Ngoi ra chng ta phi tm ra t trng ca
mi d n s c chn ti a ha NPV.
Nm 2
Nm 3
NPV
D n
Nm 0
Nm 1
-70
-20
60
60
(r=10%)
6,44
----
-90
60
50
5,30
-80
10
60
30
1,18
---
-50
30
30
1,86
Gi tr NPV ti a
10
Phi chi cho vn u t tng thm bao nhiu gia tng NPV
2/ Thi im ti u u t d n
Trong thc t, khi mt d n c NPV dng khng c ngha l thc hin d n ngay by gi l
tt nht.
u tin, xc nh thi im la chn (t) thc hin u t v tnh gi tr tng lai thun ti
mi thi im.
a gi tr tng lai thun ti tng thi im (t) v hin gi (chia cho (1+r)t)
64.4
77.5
89.4
100
109.4
Thay i trong gi tr nm
trc (%)
+ 28.8
+ 20.3
+ 15.4
+ 11.9
9.4
NPV (ngn )
50
58.8
64.0
67.2
68.3
67.9
11
NPV (r =10%)
A1
- 1000
900
900
562
A2
- 1500
685
685
685
685
671
o Cng ty cn phi thay mt trong hai my A1 hoc A2 trong sut chu k 4 nm.
o Trong trng hp ny, s so snh NPV ca my A1 v A2 l khng thch hp.
o Gi s rng cng ty c th mua my A1 khc cui nm th 2 (d n ny gi l A1) v dng
tin ca n cng ging nh A1.
o So snh NPV ca my A2 vi mt dy cc my A1 lin tip l ph hp hn
MY
NPV (r =10%)
A1
- 1000
900
900
562
A1
- 1000
900
900
464
A1 + A1
A2
- 1000
- 1500
900
685
- 100
685
900
685
900
685
1026
671
Phng php chui tin t u thay th hng nm EA: Phng php ny bt ngun t cch
12
tip cn chi ph tng ng hng nm, nhng li b qua khi nim chi ph s dng vn , tc b
qua yu t gi tr tin t theo thi gian.
Chui tin t thay th u hng nm c th doc hiu nh l chui tin t m nu c tip tc
sut vng i ca mt ti sn n s c NPV ging nh ti sn ..
NPV=
EA =
EA
EA
EA
+
2 +..+
(1 + r ) n
(1 + r ) (1 + r )
NPV
PVFA(r , n)
Thi gian
EA (r=10%)
My A1
562
324
My A2
671
212
EA 1 =
NPVA1
562
=
= 324$
PVFA(10%,2) 1,7355
EA 2=
NPVA2
671
=
= 212$
PVFA(10%,2) 3,1699
Co
Thit b mi
-15
Chui tin t 3 nm 0
tng ng
C1
C2
+8
+2,387
+8
+2,387
Dng tin
C3
+8
+2,387
Ni cch khc, dng tin ca thit b mi bng vi mt chui tin t 2.387$ mi nm. V
th chng ta c th hi thi im no chng ta mun thay th thit b c bng mt thit b mi c
th to ra 2.387$ mt nm. Khi cu hi c t theo cch ny, cu tr li r rng. Nu thit b
c c th to ra dng tin 4.000$ mt nm th ai li mun thay th n bng mt thit b mi ch
mang li 2.387$ mt nm.
Tnh thm gi tr thanh l vo tnh ton ny l mt vic n gin. Gi s l gi tr thanh l
ca thit b c hin ti l 8.000$ v trong nm ti l 7.000$. Chng ta hy xem mnh s c g
khi ch i v bn thit b trong nm ti. Mt mt, chng ta c c 7.000$ nhng mt gi tr
thanh l hin ti cng vi li nhun mt nm trn s tin . l 8.000 x 1,06=8.480$. Li rng
ca bn l 8.480$-7.000$=1.480$. Khon tin ny ch c b p mt phn li nhun kinh
doanh. Bn cha nn thay th.
5/ Gi phi tr ca vic tn dng ti sn hin hu cho d n mi
Cng ty no cng phi i ph vi cc phng n s dng ti sn. Cc thit b ngy nay
rt hin i nn ban gim c thng khuyn khch cc b phn s dng ht cng sut ca cc
thit b ny. Tuy nhin, n mt lc no , thit b s khng p ng c cc mc tiu ban u
ca ban gim c. Do , cc b phn buc phi dng ngay vic s dng m ban gim c
khuyn khch lc u hoc phi u t vo ti sn mi sm hn vi nm so vi d kin. V d
nh khuyn khch tn dng ht cng sut ca xe a rt cng nhn, cc cng ty thng phi
tng ca a n v do phi mua sm xe mi trc thi hn d kin. Cc vn nh th cn
phi d kin ht trong qu trnh hoch nh ngn sch vn.
Gi s chng ta c mt s d n u t mi v ban gim c c nh tn dng cc my
vi tnh hin hu m cng ty ang c cho d n mi ny. Chnh v th tui th ca my vi tnh hin
hu ny gim t 5 nm xung cn 4 nm v i hi phi thay th my vi tnh mi. My vi tnh
mi ny c i sng kinh t 5 nm, hin gi ca chi ph mua sm v vn hnh l 500.000$, li
sut chit khu l 6%.
Chng ta bt u bng vic chuyn 500.000$ hin gi ca chi ph mua sm vn hnh ca
my vi tnh sang chi ph tng ng hng nm l 118.700$ trong 5 nm. Nu chng ta thc hin
14
Hai thit b c
750 sn phm
2 x 750 = 1.500$
1.500/0,1 = 15.000$
2 x 15.000 = 30.000$
Cng ty ang xem xt liu c nn thay th hai thit b ny bng hai thit b mi hay
khng. Thit b mi c cng sut tng t v v th vn cn hai thit b tha mn cho nhu cu
tng cao. M i thit b mi gi 6.000$ v thi hn s dng khng xc nh. Chi ph hot ng ch
1$/mt sn phm. Trn c s ny cng ty tnh gi tr hin ti ca chi ph hai thit b mi s l
27.000$.
Hai thit b mi
750 sn phm
6.000$
1 x 750 = 750$
6.000 + 750/0,1 = 13.500$
13.500 x 2 = 27.000$
Mt thit b c
500 sp
0
2 x 500 = 1.000$
1.000/0,1 = 10.000$
26.000$
Mt thit b mi
1.000 sp
6.000$
1 x 1.000 = 1.000$
6.000 + 1.000/0,1=16.000$
Thay th mt thit b c tit kim c 4.000$, thay th hai thit b c ch tit kim 3.000$. NPV
ca u t cn bin thit b th hai l 1.000$
Mt trng hp t ra na, nu ta cho thit b c sn xut ht cng sut (75%), thit b
mi ch sn xut ng s lng sn phm cung cp ra th trng (1.500 sn phm). Hin gi ca
chi ph cho chin lc ny l 28.500$.
Sn lng hng nm mi thit b
u t mi thit b
Chi ph hot ng mi thit b
PV ca ton b chi ph mi thit b
PV ca ton b chi ph 2 thit b
Mt thit b c
750 sp
0
2 x 750 = 1.500$
1.500/0,1 = 15.000$
28.500$
Mt thit b mi
750 sp
6.000$
1 x 750 = 750$
6.000 + 750/0,1=13.500$
chnh xc vic th nghim v pht trin k thut mi ny s khin cng ty tn km chi ph l bao
nhiu. Tuy nhin doanh s bn ng c phn lc ph thuc vo: (1) s khng chc chn v mc
cu i vi loi my bay du lch trong tng lai, (2) s khng chc chn v gi du hay loi nhin
liu cnh tranh vi k thut mi ca cng ty l bao nhiu. (3) s khng chc chn v th phn ca
cng ty SEC i vi ng c dnh cho loi my bay 150 hnh khch v (4) s khng chc chn
v mc cu i vi loi my bay 150 hnh khch so vi cc loi my bay c nhng kch c khc.
Gi du trong tng lai s c tc ng ng k n d n khi cc hng hng khng thay th
nhng my bay hin hu ca mnh, loi my bay phn lc Boeing 727, bng nhng my bay phn
lc th h mi s c sn xut trong vng 5 nm ti v my bay Boeing 727 t hao nhin liu
hn nhiu so vi cc my bay i mi.
Nu nhng th nghim th trng ban u thnh cng, cng ty SEC s u t mua t,
xy mt vi nh my mi v tin hnh sn xut vi quy m ln. Giai on u t ny s c chi
ph l 1.500 triu la. Thi gian hot ng ca d n ko di trong 5 nm. Dng tin ban u
ca d n s xut hin nh trong bng bn di.
D n u t
Nm th 1
Doanh thu
Chi ph kh bin
Chi ph c nh
Khu hao
EBIT
Thu (Tc=0,34)
EBIT (1-T)
Dng tin= EBIT(1-T) + khu hao
Chi ph u t ban u
(n v: triu la)
Nm th 2
6.000$
(3.000)
(1.791)
(300)
909
(309)
600$
900$
-1.500$
NPV = -1.500$
t=1
900$
1,15t
Nm th 2
Nm th nht
Hin ti
Th nghim v
pht trin
-100$
u t ban u
-1.500$
Sn xut
NPV = 1.517$
u t
Thnh
cng
Th
nghim
Khng th
nghim
Khng u t
Khng u t
NPV = 0
Tht bi
u t
NPV = -3.611$
0
-25.000 $
1
50.000 $
2
-36.000 $
19
i vi d n ny, khng tn ti li sut chit khu IRR m ti NPV = 0, hay ni 1 cch khc,
d n u t ny khng c IRR.
D n
B
Nm
0
1.500 $
1
-3.000 $
2
2.250 $
3
-750 $
4
300 $
0
-20.000 $
1
64.000 $
2
-48.000 $
phi s dng mt h thng nguyn l khc l k thut hin gi iu chnh (APV) v hai l do:
- Th nht, nhng kh khn lm cho dng tin (cc t s trong cng thc NPV) c nhn t hai
gc khc nhau:
+ T quc gia ca nh u t
+ T quc gia m d n c thc hin
Trong , cch nhn ng l t quc gia ca nh u t, m chng ta gi thit cng l
quc gia ca tt c cc c ng.
- Th hai, mc ri ro ca cc d n nc ngoi v sut chit khu thch hp (cc mu s ca
NPV).
9.1.1. Dng tin xt t gc trong nc so vi nc ngoi:
- Vn khng chuyn v nc: Nu vn khng chuyn v nc hay b hn ch chuyn v m c
th c s dng li trong mt d n u t nc ngoi th u t ban u (I0) c th gim
thp ng k. T gc ca nh u t, c mt dng thu t cc ngun vn c s dng li bng
chnh lch gia gi tr danh ngha ca cc ngun vn ny v hin gi ca chng nu chng c
dng vi mt c hi ph tt nht. Dng thu ny s c tr vo u t ban u ca d n c
c u t t gc ca nh u t chnh quc.
- nh hng trn doanh s ca cc b phn khc: T gc ca gim c ca mt d n nc
ngoi, tng gi tr cc dng tin t hot ng u t l cch tip cn thch hp. Tuy nhin cc nh
my thng c xy dng cc nc m trc cng ty c thc hin giao dch bun bn.
Nu cc doanh nghip d nh xy dng nh my nhng quc gia m trc y c xut khu
sn phm sang th ch xem xt n dng tin tng thm ca doanh nghip. Doanh s thng b st
gim hoc mt i nu khng thc hin d n u t. y cng chnh l l do thc hin u t.
V vy, ta phi tr i bt c ngun thu nhp no m doanh nghip ng l c th kim c nu
khng thc hin d n u t.
- Nhng hn ch trong vic chuyn tin v nc: Khi c hn ch i vi vic chuyn thu nhp v
nc, ch c nhng dng tin c th chuyn v cng ty m mi c xem xt t gc ca
doanh nghip. iu ny lun ng d thu nhp c c chuyn v hay khng. Khi vic chuyn
thu nhp b hn ch v mt php l th chng ta vn c th trnh n ti mt mc no bng cch
dng gi chuyn giao, thanh ton chi ph qun l,.
Nu chng ta ch tnh nhng khon thu nhp c th chuyn v nc mt cch cng khai v
hp php, ta s c c mt nh gi thn trng v gi tr ca d n.
+ Nu kt qu tnh ton l s dng: chng ta khng cn cng thm g vo na.
+ Nu kt qu tnh ton l s m: chng ta c th cng thm thu nhp c th chuyn v
21
nc bng cch lch nhng quy nh php l, tm thi gi l thu nhp chuyn v nc khng hp
php.
Chnh phng php hai bc ny l u im chnh ca cch tnh APV phng php hin gi
c iu chnh. Phng php hai bc ny cng c th dng tnh thu.
- Cc mc thu khc nhau: Thu quc t l mt vn phc tp. Tuy nhin nh gi cc d n
u t trc tip nc ngoi, vn cn quan tm l tng s thu s phi tr ch khng phi chnh
ph no s thu thu, hnh thc thu thu v chi ph cho vic thu thu,.
Gi s mt doanh nghip c tr s M, khi thu sut thu thu nhp doanh nghip cao hn
thu sut nc ngoi, thu sut c hiu lc s l thu sut M nu c khu tr thu ton phn
cho s thu tr nc ngoi. Th d hai trng hp nh sau:
+ Nu mt d n nc ngoi t ti Singapore, thu sut thu thu nhp doanh nghip
Singapore dnh cho cc cng ty c tr s ngoi l 27%, trong khi thu sut thu thu nhp doanh
nghip M l 35%, sau khi khu tr s thu tr Singapore, cng ty s phi ch ng thu
8% M.
+ Nu d n c t Canada v chu thu sut 43% th s khng c khu tr thu v
thu sut c hiu lc l 43%.
iu ny c ngha l khi chng ta tnh ton d n u t nc ngoi t gc ca nh u
t, chng ta s dng thu sut T no cao hn trong hai thu sut ca nc nh u t v ca nc
ngoi.
Vic ly thu sut T l mc cao hn trong hai mc thu sut trong nc ca nh u t v
mc thu sut ca nc ngoi l mt cch tip cn thn trng, trn thc t thu thng c lm
gim ti mt mc thp hn T qua vic la chn gi chuyn giao thch hp, tr tin bn quyn,.
Nhng k thut ny cng c th c dng chuyn thu nhp t nc c thu sut cao n cc
nc c thu sut thp v do lm gim c tng mc thu phi np. Thm vo c th tr
hon vic np thu bng cch phn thu nhp c th chuyn v nc ngoi, v v vy nu dng
tin c tnh nh l tt c thu nhp c th chuyn v nc, d thc s c chuyn hay khng, cn
phi c iu chnh, bi v s tin thu tr thc t s t hn s c tnh trong dng tin. C th
iu chnh vo chi ph s dng vn hay tnh vo nh mt thng s b sung khi tnh APV.
- Cc khon vay u i: Trong khi cc chnh ph thng dnh h tr ti chnh c bit hay cc
loi tr gip khc cho mt s d n u t trong nc, cc d n u t nc ngoi cng c
hng mt s tr gip. Nhng tr gip ny thng l di hnh thc t thu gi r, gim li
sut, t thu gi r nh hng khng ng k ti u t ban u, nhng khon vay u i l
mt vn kh phc tp trong tnh NPV. Tuy nhin vi k thut APV, ta c th thm mt thng
s c bit bao gm tin tr cp. Cc khon vay u i s lm chi ph s dng vn ca d n
22
(1 + re )t
t =1
n
rg BC0 .T
(1 + r )
t =1
+ S0[CL0 -
LRt
t ] +
t =1 (1 + rc )
DAt .T
(1 + r )
t =1
TDt*
t +
t =1 (1 + rd )
n
RFt *
t
t =1 (1 + r f )
n
Vi:
St*
S0
I0
AF0
: S nm i sng ca d n
LSt*
DAt
BC0
CL0
LRt
TDt* : Tit kim k vng do hon np thu, bng cch nh gi chuyn giao ni b gia cc
cng ty con
RFt* : Thu nhp k vng chuyn v nc bt hp php
re
ra
rb
: Sut chit khu v khon tit kim thu trn vic khu tr li vay do ng gp vo kh
nng vay mn
rc
rd
: Sut chit khu tit kim do chuyn giao ni b gia cc cng ty con
rf
rg
24
10. NH GI MT D N U T:
I. Gii thiu d n:
1. Gii thiu chung:
- Tn cng ty: CTCP c ph A
- Tn d n: D n u t My rang xay c ph
- Sn phm chnh, cng sut: C ph rang xay (c ph truyn thng), cng sut 5.000kg/gi
- Tng mc u t: 50.000.000.000 ng
- Thi gian d kin bt u t thng 06/2009; thi gian d kin hon thnh thng 06/2010
2. Mc tiu ca d n:
a. Ni dung u t v ngun vn
- Ni dung u t: u t h thng my rang xay c ph nhm nng cao cng sut hin ti ca nh
my.
Hin ti cng ty c:
+ Tng cng 19 my rang v hai my xay c ph, tng tr gi: 5.756.882.792 ng
+ Hai my trn c ph v thit b trn c ph, tr gi: 293.332.428ng
+ Dy chuyn rang xay ng gi in Date, tr gi: 1.560.000.000 ng
+ H thng, dy chuyn in ng gi/lon, in date, tng tr gi: 2.268.923.623 ng
+ Dy chuyn sn xut Caramel (thit b nu: s lng 25, ni nu: s lng 7) tr gi:
389.100.000 ng.
+ H thng my sng phn loi c ph: 116.190.476 ng.
Ngoi cc h thng my dy chuyn sn xut chnh trn cn mt s h thng my ph tr khc.
Sn lng tiu th nm 2008 l khong 11.415 tn/nm, hin cng sut sn xut ca thit b my
mc hin ti t 100% cng sut thit k ban u. Nu u t thm h thng my mc mi
ny vi cng sut ti a c th ln ti 5.000kg/gi v mi ngy lm vic 2 ca, mi ca l 8gi th
cng sut tng thm l 80 tn/ngy/2ca (28.800 tn/nm).
b. Ngun vn u t:
Ngun vn u t ca d n s c cn i t nhiu ngun vn huy ng, bao gm:
- Vn t c ca ch u t
S dng ngun vn u t pht trin doanh nghip, chim 40% tng ngun vn. Vn ch s hu
vi sut sinh li mong mun l 15%/nm (1,25%/thng)
- Vn vay cc t chc tn dng
Vi ti sn m bo n vay l ti sn hnh thnh t d n, d n s vay t ngn hng thng mi
(t chc tn dng) ti tr cho d n. Vn vay chim t trng 60% tng ngun vn vi li sut
hng nm l 10,5%/nm (0,875%/thng).
Nh vy, khi d n hot ng s ha chung vo ton b hot ng ca doanh nghip nn s chu
cng mc ri ro chung, do , sut sinh li k vng ca doanh nghip i vi d n ny l 15%.
25
S lng
1
1
5 SILO
1
5 SILO
4
1
1
1
1
1
Cng ngh
c
Vit Nam ch to
(linh kin c)
Vit Nam ch to
(INOX SS304)
Vit Nam ch to
(linh kin Nht)
Vit Nam ch to
(INOX SS304)
c
Italia
Italia
Vit Nam ch to
(linh kin Nht)
Vit Nam sx (Vina
Nha Trang)
Nht sn xut
S tin (tr gi
c tnh ng)
23.000.000.000
950.000.000
2.000.000.000
600.000.000
2.000.000.000
7.980.000.000
2.500.000.000
2.500.000.000
3.500.000.000
250.000.000
300.000.000
45.580.000.000
4.420.000.000
1.700.000.000
2.720.000.000
50.000.000.000
26
vt
tr. ng
tn/nm
Kg/gi
Ca
Gi
Ngy
Nm 0
0%
0%
0%
Gi bn bnh qun
tr.ng/tn
Nm 0
tn/nm
Sn lng tiu th
Chi ph gi vn/doanh thu
Chi ph QL&BH/Doanh thu
Thi hn vay
Li sut vay
Tng u t
Thi gian khu khao
S vn vay
Nm
%/nm
tr.ng
Nm
tr.ng
50,000
28,800
5,000
2
8
360
Nm 1
50%
30%
30%
Nm 2 Nm 3 Nm 4 Nm 5 Nm .... Nm 10
60%
70%
80%
90%
90%
90%
40%
50%
50%
50%
50%
50%
30%
40%
40%
40%
40%
40%
75
Nm 1 Nm 2 Nm 3 Nm 4 Nm 5 Nm .... Nm 10
8,640 11,520 14,400 14,400 14,400 14,400 14,400
95%
3%
2
10.5
50,000
10
30,000
27
2.
Hiu qu d n:
Nm 0
Nm 1
Nm 2
Nm 3
Nm 4
Nm 5
Nm
Nm 10
0%
30%
40%
50%
50%
50%
50%
50%
10,970
648,0
00
640,0
40
615,60
0
19,4
40
5,00
0
7,9
60
1,9
90
5,97
0
10,970
14,210
864,0
00
851,72
0
820,8
00
25,92
0
5,00
0
12,2
80
3,0
70
9,2
10
14,210
50,00
0
50,0
00
-50,000
25%
29,4
93
28.00%
NPV
IRR
17,450
1,080,0
00
1,063,4
00
1,026,0
00
32,4
00
5,00
0
16,6
00
4,1
50
12,4
50
17,450
17,450
1,080,0
00
1,063,4
00
1,026,0
00
32,4
00
5,00
0
16,6
00
4,1
50
12,4
50
17,450
17,450
1,080,0
00
1,063,4
00
1,026,0
00
32,4
00
5,00
0
16,6
00
4,1
50
12,4
50
17,450
17,450
1,080,0
00
1,063,4
00
1,026,0
00
32,4
00
5,00
0
16,6
00
4,1
50
12,4
50
17,450
17,450
1,080,00
0
1,063,40
0
1,026,00
0
32,40
0
5,00
0
16,60
0
4,15
0
12,45
0
17,450
3. Kt lun:
TT
1
2
3
4
5
Ch tiu
r
NPV
IRR
PI
PP
Gi tr
15%/nm
29.493 tr
28%
1.5309
3.63 nm
nh gi
>0
>15%/nm
>1
28
MC LC
PHN I........................................................................................................................................................3
CC TIU CHUN NH GI D N U T................................................................................3
1. TIU CHUN HIN GI THUN THE NET PRESENT VALUE NPV......................................3
2. TIU CHUN H S HON VN NI B IRR (INTERNAL RATE OF RETURN)......................5
3. TIU CHUN CH S SINH LI ( THE PROFITABILITY INDEX - PI).........................................6
4. TIU CHUN THI GIAN THU HI VN (THE PAYBACK PERIOD - PP)..................................7
5. TIU CHUN THI GIAN THU HI VN C CHIT KHU (THE DISCOUNTED PAYBACK
PERIOD - DPP)............................................................................................................................................7
PHN II.......................................................................................................................................................9
VN DNG CC TIU CHUN VO D N THC TIN..............................................................9
1. nh gi d n u t trong trng hp ngun vn b gii hn.............................................................9
2. Thi im ti u u t d n...........................................................................................................11
3. Cc d n u t khng ng nht v thi gian....................................................................................12
4. Quyt nh khi no nn thay th thit b hin hu.................................................................................13
5. Gi phi tr ca vic tn dng ti sn hin hu cho d n mi............................................................14
6. Nhn t thi v.......................................................................................................................................15
7. Phn tch NPV v s cy quyt nh.................................................................................................16
8. IRR ca nhng d n khng bnh thng.............................................................................................19
9. nh gi cc d n u t trc tip nc ngoi....................................................................................21
10. nh gi mt d n u t...................................................................................................................25
29