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Thm nh d n u t

Bi c
1

B qua nhng khi nim hn lm v nhng nh ngha cha ng bit bao ngn t hoa m, gy
tranh ci v tn km nhiu giy mc, bn cht ch thc ca d n u t suy cho cng ch n gin
l vic b ra nhng ng tin ngy hm nay k vng s thu c chng v trong tng lai.
Dng tin chi ra hm nay l thc nhng dng tin s thu v trong tng lai mi ch l d
on, hy cn l nhng con s v hn, i khi c gt gia rt p, nm yn lnh trn nhng
trang giy trng m thi. Chnh v ci ngy mai cha bit y m ai cng t ra c l khi ngh v d
n.
Nhng tin t c tnh thi gian. Ti, bn, cc nh t bn v c B Ngoi chn qu na, ai
cng mun nhn c ng tin chc chn ngy hm nay (ng tin an ton) hn l nhng ng
tin khng chc chn (ng tin ri ro) vo nm sau.
Mt khc, cc ngun lc lun hn hp ch khng phi l v tn. Thm nh, la chn v
quyt nh u t vo mt d n cng c ngha l chp nhn b qua c hi u t vo mt d n
khc
2
.
C nh vy, d n khng c g l gh gm c m tri li, n cha ng nhng iu rt gn
gi vi suy ngh t nhin ca tt c mi ngi. Nhng cu hi tht n gin v bnh thng nh
vy s tr thnh ch dn dt cho cc tho lun ca chng ny.
Do phm vi ca ch quyn sch, mt s ni dung su hn v thm nh d n s khng
c dp cp n
3
. Chng ny ch nhm tp trung tho lun nhng vn k thut: tnh thi gian
ca tin t; k thut chit khu dng tin; h thng cc ch tiu nh gi d n, x l lm pht, k
thut phn tch ri ro ca d n.
I. V sao tin t c tnh thi gian
Mt ng tin c gi tr khc nhau vo hai thi im khc nhau. Khong cch thi gian cng di v
c hi sinh li cng cao th s khc bit trong gi tr gia hai thi im ca n cng ln.
Qu vy, nu bn cho bn thn ca mnh mn s tin 50 ngn ng vo bui sng, n
bui tra th nhn li
4
. Lc y, 50 ngn l nh nhau, hay ni cch khc, bn khng thy c s khc
bit no v gi tr thi gian ca tin t.
Nhng nu bn mua c phiu ca Cng ty VaBiCo cch y hai nm vi gi 40 ngn ng
mt c phiu, tt nhin mc ch mua (u t) l kim li, th li l cu chuyn khc. Sau khi mua,
gi c phiu c lc tng cao hn 40 ngn, bn bo hy ch ln na kim li nhiu hn; c lc gi
rt xung thp hn 40 ngn, bn hy vng n s ln tr li. Hm nay trn th trng gi ng 40
ngn, v cn tin nn bn mang i bn. Bn tng b ra 40 ngn ng cch y hai nm, by gi

1
Trch chng 12, sch: K ton qun tr (2003), NXB i hc Quc gia Tp. HCM, NXB Thng k ti bn ln th
hai, cng tc gi.
2
Khoa hc kinh t suy n cng l khoa hc v s khan him cc ngun lc. Qu vy, nu ngun lc l v tn th s
khng cn kinh t hc v tt nhin khng cn phi thm nh d n v c mn hc k ton qun tr ny, cng khng
cn na.
3
C th tham kho cc sch (cng tc gi): Phn tch hot ng doanh nghip (2000)-NXB HQG, NXB Thng k
ti bn ln th su; Phn tch qun tr ti chnh (2002)-NXB HQG, NXB Thng k ti bn ln th ba.
4
gi l bn thn m, ai n ly li.
Thm nh d n u t

Prepared by NGUYEN TAN BINH 2 3/9/2012
thu li cng ng 40 ngn ng. Lc ny, bn c ni l hu vn? Cu tr li chn hn l khng. V
nh vy, bn tha nhn rng cng s tin 40 ngn ng, gi tr ca chng s khc nhau vo hai
thi im khc nhau.
C t nht l ba l do sau y c th dng gii thch v tnh thi gian ca tin t
5
.
1.1 Chi ph c hi ca tin
ng tin lun c c hi sinh li, n c th dng u t v c li ngay lp tc. Ni theo
cch hn lm l lun c chi ph c hi cho vic s dng tin
6
. Khi bn u t vo c phiu cng c
ngha l chp nhn b qua c hi sinh li t vic u t mua t
7
. Nu li sut tin gi ngn hng
l 10% nm, vic u t c phiu VaBiCo trn y ti thiu cng lm bn mt i c hi kim c
s tin li l 8 ngn (= 40 ngn 20%) nu bn khim tn, hoc c th ni l nht gan, chp nhn
hng mt li sut thp nht bng cch gi tit kim ngn hng (cha tnh n li kp
8
).
Dng tin u t vo d n l vic hy sinh li ch ngy hm nay k vng vo nhng li
ch ln hn ngy mai.
Ngay c khi bn s dng tin cho tiu dng cng vy. Mt s tiu dng hin ti s em li
cho bn tha dng sm hn v cao hn l s ch i dnh n tng lai! V nu bn chu
nhn thm chic xe Spacy hm nay u t kim li v 3 nm sau chng l no cng ch l
chic Spacy!
9
Bn phi c thng v s tr hon tiu dng ny, phn thng l li sut
(hoc sut chit khu). S nghin cu phn k thut chit khu dng tin.
1.2 Tnh lm pht
T ngy c in ko v nng thn, Ngoi mun mua mt my bm nc ti vn rau
ca Ngoi. Vn rau tng mt thi nui con by gi nui chu ang hc i hc nm th ba ngnh
k ton mt trng i hc danh gi Si Gn. Ngoi c 4 triu, gi my bm 4,4 triu nn
Ngoi khng tin. a chu cng "hin k" gi ngn hng mt nm sau tin mua my (li
sut 10% nm). Khi Ngoi cm c 4,4 triu trong tay th gi my bm, c ngun gc nhp ngoi
by gi tng hn 5 triu.
Mt ln na Ngoi li khng tin. Ngoi li tip tc on lng ti tng gnh nc nh
Ngoi tng quen chu ng sut mt i c cc, nhc nhn
10
.
an i, a chu "tr thc" ni rng d sao Ngoi cng li c 0,4 triu (?). Khng.
Ngoi mt do phi ng mt th thu lm pht
11
m Ngoi no c bit bao gi.

5
Time value of money
6
Chi ph c hi (opportunity cost) c dp cp Chng 2 Phn loi chi ph.
7
Xt bn cht kinh t, kinh doanh t ai v mua bn chng khon l hon ton ging nhau. Nhng ngi trung gian
hng hu hng n thun trn th trng chng khon c gi bng ci tn rt p l "cc nh mi gii chng
khon" (brokers), va trung gian va tham gia mua bn c gi l "cc nh u t chng khon" (dealers), nhng
sao nhng vai tr nh vy trong lnh vc a c th gi l "c" v "k u c"?
8
Ni theo ngn ng bnh dn l: "li m li con".
9
Ni theo cch bnh dn l: sng trc kh sau hoc l kh trc sng sau. trn i, khng c g l sng
trc ri sng sau c !
10
Ngoi khng c dp nng cao "nng sut lao ng nng nghip", nn kinh t b qua c hi "kch cu" v gp phn
"chuyn i c cu kinh t". D tnh nu c my bm, Ngoi s trng thm mt "cao" (n v o ca mt lung t
khong 400 m
2
ngoi thnh pha Ty TP. HCM) rau na v s mua mt tivi mu 14 inch xem ci lng, nhng
c m bnh d khng thnh.
Thm nh d n u t

Prepared by NGUYEN TAN BINH 3 3/9/2012
1.3 Tnh ri ro
Ai m bit c ngy sau ri s ra sao?
12
Mt ng tin s nhn c trong tng lai chc
chn l khng c g chc chn c. Nhng ri ro ca thin tai hay chin tranh, s thay i th ch
chnh sch hay nhng th lc d di ca th trng cnh tranh, trng thi nn kinh t tng trng
hay suy thoi, ch trng chnh ph tip tc bo h hay m ra hi nhp, bnh yn hay khng hong
v v vn nhng th rt kh nh lng khc, lun rnh rp. B ra ng vn trong hon cnh ,
ngi ta cn c mt phn thng b p
13
.
Vn khng phi l s ri ro, s th khng lm, m l chp nhn v nh i ri ro nh
th no. Ri ro cng cao th phn thng i hi phi cng ln. Ngc li cng hon ton ng nh
vy, li nhun cng nhiu th ri ro cng lm (high return, high risk) tr thnh bi hc s ng u
tin cho mi kha hc v qun tr kinh doanh. C ngi mua bt ng sn vi hy vng t li sut
30% nm, trong khi c ngi chp nhn gi tit kim ngn hng hng li sut 6% nm.
C ngi u t chng khon cng ty li sut 20% nm th cng c ngi chn mua tri phiu
chnh ph li sut 7% nm. Khng c g l c. l s sng phng ca th trng. C hi l nh
nhau i vi tt c mi ngi
14
.
II. K thut chit khu dng tin
C th ni rng chit khu dng tin l ci trc ca nn ti chnh hin i. N tr thnh mt kin
thc cn bn khng ch dnh ring cho cc nh qun tr ti chnh m cn l ca bt k ai, bt k
lnh vc hot ng no. Mt ch bn hng ch Bnh Ty cng tha bit rng cho vay tin vi
mt li sut rt thp khi ch t bt k hp ng vi mt cng ty bo him nhn th.
Trong mc ny, chng ta s nghin cu cc phng php chit khu dng tin cng nhng
ng dng rt i thc ca chng.
2.1 Gi tr tng lai ca mt ng
Nu bn gi ngn hng 100 (n v tin), li sut 10% nm, mt nm sau bn s c:
110 = 100 + 100 10%
= 100 (1 + 10%)
Bn tip tc gi s tin 110 ngn hng, mt nm sau na bn s nhn c:
121 = 110 + 110 10%
= 110 (1 + 10%)
Thay 110 = 100 (1 + 10%), ta c th vit:
121 = 100 (1 + 10%) (1 + 10%)

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Inflation tax. Mt nh lnh o phng Ty no tng ni rng, thu lm pht l mt loi thu tn bo nht trong
lch s nhn loi. Khi bn cm trong tay 1 triu ng m gi tr ca n nh 0,5 triu th bn "ng" thu lm pht
ht mt na ri. chng li s lm pht, ngi ta khng ct tin "di gi" hay treo trn "ngn da" m phi
a vo u t bng cch mua tri phiu, c phiu, ti thiu l gi tit kim. Theo cch , nn kinh t s c vn
hot ng. Mt khi khng c g mua, ngi ta mua t th cng khng c g l c.
12
Que sera sera
13
Risk premium: ph thng ri ro.
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Tr nhng k c c thng tin ni b. T nh cc v lnh o ca mt s tp on va ph sn trong thi gian gn
y (M) hoc nhiu quan chc ngnh a chnh v qui hoch "chm im" tuyt i chnh xc trn tm bn s
c cng khai vo tun ti (!).
Thm nh d n u t

Prepared by NGUYEN TAN BINH 4 3/9/2012
= 100 (1 + 10%)
2

khi qut, t:
PV = 100
FV
2
= 121
r = 10%
n = 2
Ta c:
FV
2
= PV (1 + r)
2

Tng t cho FV
3
, FV
4
, FV
5
,,v:
FV
n
= P (1 + r)
n
cng thc (1)
Trong ,
PV : gi tr s tin hin ti (present value)
r : li sut (rate)
n : s nm
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(number)
FV
n
: gi tr tng lai (future value) ca s tin PV sau n nm, vi li sut l r, k ghp li (vo
vn) l nm. V c bit, H s (1 + r)
n
, nhn t lm cho gi tr t PV bin thnh FV
n

chnh l gi tr tng lai ca 1 ng ng vi li sut l r, thi gian l n.
(1+r)
n
cn c gi l h s tch ly hay h s li kp
16
. V h s tch ly lun ln hn
hoc bng 1 (> 1). Gi tr tng lai lun ln hn (hoc bng) vi gi tr hin ti.
(Xem ph lc cc bng h s tch ly cui sch)
Trong cng thc (1) v c cc cng thc tip theo ta thy c cc yu t: FV, PV, n, r. V d
gi l "ton ti chnh", "chit khu dng tin" hay l g gh gm i na th vn l vic i tm gi tr
cc yu t trn bng cc bi ton nhn chia, quy tc tam sut v cng n gin. Mt ln na, vn
khng phi l tnh ton m l s vn dng chng nh th no trong i thc.
Mt khc, tt c nhng g thuc v tnh ton c my tnh lm (to do), b no nh b ca
con ngi ch dnh ngh (to think) m thi.

ng lo lng cc cng thc! Tt c cc tnh ton trong chng ny (v c quyn sch)
u c hng dn Excel.
- V d 12.1: Tnh gi tr tng lai FV
n

Bn s c bao nhiu tin khi tt nghip i hc (4 nm) nu by gi (u nm th nht) bn
mang 2 triu gi vo ngn hng, vi li sut c nh 10% nm.
S tin 2 triu vi li sut 10% nm, sau thi gian 4 nm s tr thnh:
FV = PV (1+r)
n


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C th ng dng vi k on l tun, thng, qu, 6 thng. Trong d n thng l nm. Mt lu khc l, n l k
on, l khong cch thi gian ch khng phi l k hiu nm lch.
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Compounding factor
Thm nh d n u t

Prepared by NGUYEN TAN BINH 5 3/9/2012
FV = 2(1+10%)
4
= 2 1,46 = 2,92 triu ng
(h s tch ly 1,46 c c ct 10% v hng 4 trong bng gi tr tng lai ca mt ng,
phn ph lc cui sch)
- V d 12.2: Tnh li sut r
Li sut no lm cho s tin 2 triu tr thnh 2,92 triu sau 4 nm?
2,92=2(1+r)
4

Vit cch khc:
(1+r)=
4
1,46 =1,46
1/4
=1,1
Vy, r = 0,1 hay 10%
- V d 12.3: Tnh thi gian n
Phi mt bao nhiu nm, tng sn phm quc ni (GDP) bnh qun u ngi ca Vit
Nam tng gp 2 ln so vi hin nay, nu nn kinh t chng ta phn u gi c tc tng trng
u hng nm l 7,2%?
17

p dng cng thc (1)
2=(1+7,2%)
n
=(1,072)
n

Ly logarit
18
hai v
Ln 2 = n Ln 1,072
Suy ra
Kt qu: phi mt n 10 nm.
- V d 12.4 Tnh thi gian n (tip theo)
Phi mt bao nhiu nm, tng sn phm quc ni (GDP) bnh qun u ngi ca Vit
Nam bng vi mc nm 1995 ca mt s quc gia?
V d: GDP bnh qun u ngi ca Vit Nam hin nay l 450 la, v phn u t tc
tng trng hng nm l 7,5% th cn lu lm.
Bn s nh Excel tnh nhanh chng cho bn kt qu bun sau y
19
.

17
Cha tnh n tc tng dn s.
18
Lgarit t nhin (Natural logarithm), cn gi l Logarit c s e (e = 2, 7183)
19
C l trong cc sch gio khoa cp mt, m ngi ta ang ci t, phi dy cho tr em s tht rng nc ta rt
ngho v hun c ni lo v iu .
Thm nh d n u t

Prepared by NGUYEN TAN BINH 6 3/9/2012

GDP u ngi ca Vit Nam 450
Tc tng trng 7,5%
H s tch ly 1 nm (=1+0,075) 1,075
Ln 1,075 0,07232
Quc gia
GDP u
ngi 1995
(USD)
So vi
Vit Nam
(ln)
Ln
i

S nm cn thit
(nm)
Nht Bn 9.640 88 4,48 62
Hoa K 26.980 60 4,09 57
Singapore 26.730 59 4,08 56
Thailand 2.740 6 1,81 25

HNG DN EXCEL
(cc tnh ton trong nhng v d trn)
(1) Bnh phng, cn s
Bn c th s dng phm nng tnh nhanh cc php tnh ly tha, cn s nh sau:
Ly tha: Shift v du ^. V d bn mun tnh 2
3
, bn ch cn nh: =2^3 v OK, Excel s
cho bn kt qu l 8.
Cn s: Shift v du ^, m ngoc n, nh phn s vi t s l 1 v mu s l bc ca
cn, ng ngoc n v OK.
V d bn mun tnh
3
8 bn s nh nh sau:
= 8^(1/3), kt qu s l 2.
(2) Hm Ln
Tng t, dng phm nng tnh nhanh gi tr logarit. V d bn mun tnh Ln 88, bn s
nh: =Ln(88), Excel s cho bn kt qu l 4,48.
Nhng nu bn mun i thm cc hm Excel lm quen, ri thn v yu, th tng t
cc hm thng k (Statistical) c hng dn cc chng trc, nhng by gi l hm ton
v lng gic (Math&Trig).
u tin bn bm nt fx, chn loi hm Math&Trig, tn hm l Ln chng hn, nh di
y:

Thm nh d n u t

Prepared by NGUYEN TAN BINH 7 3/9/2012


Nh l ch cn tnh mt s thi, sau dng lnh copy b ph thy Excel tnh cc s cn
li.
(3) Hm FV
Cng trong fx, bn chn hm ti chnh (financial) v bn s c rt nhiu th, trong c
hm FV.


Lu :
Thm nh d n u t

Prepared by NGUYEN TAN BINH 8 3/9/2012
- Bn s b qua Pmt, n mc gi tr tng lai ca dng tin u, ta s tr li hm ny.
Khi s dng phm nng bn s b qua bng cch bm 2 ln du phy, du ngn cch cc khai
bo tng ng trong bng tnh trn y.
=- FV(C1,C2,,C3)
- c ch type dng khai bo thi im thanh ton, nu u k th khai 1, nu trng
th Excel mc nh l 0, tc cui k
20
.
(4) Hm Goal seek
Sau khi bn tnh FV ca 100 ng sau 3 nm vi li sut 10% l 133,1 ng, by gi bn
mun bit li sut 12% th s l bao nhiu, bn a chut vo 10% sa thnh 12% ri OK (tc
Enter) bn s c ngay kt qu mi. Tng t, bn s i s nm Lm c iu ny v bn
lin kt cng thc trc .
Nhng nu bn mun bit gi tr tng lai s l 172 ng th li sut phi l bao nhiu, th
sao? Tt nhin bn s m mm, tc ln lt cho thay i li sut, mi ln mt t cho n khi no FV
bng ng 172 mi thi!
Nhng trong trng hp ny, c hm Goalseek (tm kim kt qu) gip bn
21
.

Excel: Tools/Goalseek
Bn ch cn bm OK th cha 10% ( B1) s tr thnh 19,8% v cha gi tr 133,1 (
B5) s tr thnh 172 lp tc.


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Excel rt chu o, nhng iu bnh thng, ph bin v hp l u c n mc nh sn. Chng hn hm FV
c mc nh l m v Excel hiu l tr nn bn li phi thm du tr vo pha trc thnh dng nh trn!
Nhng chu o qu mc c khi cng c khi lm ta bc mnh.
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Nhng hy nh, nhiu hm trn Excel khng phi ch dnh cho mt nhu cu duy nht. T tng , bn c th p
dng tnh cho nhiu bi ton khc. Ngay c cng thc FV cng vy, bn thy rng n khng ch dnh ring
cho vic tnh gi tr thi gian ca tin t.
Thm nh d n u t

Prepared by NGUYEN TAN BINH 9 3/9/2012


Nu mun gi kt qu mi, bm OK; nu mun tr tr v gi tr c, bm Cancel.
n nay th bn thy rng, vic tnh FV, PV, r, n l chuyn d nh mc tin trong ti.
(5) Bng h s tin t
Tc cc bng tnh gi tr tng lai (h s tch ly) v gi tr hin ti (h s chit khu) ca
tin t (ph lc cui sch).
Bn hy m Excel ra, np cc gi tr li sut nh mun nh sau:

y chng qua cng vic lin kt cng thc, mt bi tp s ng u tin khi bt u lm
quen vi bng tnh Excel.
Thm nh d n u t

Prepared by NGUYEN TAN BINH 10 3/9/2012
Nhng phng h c bn cha bit nn ti hng dn c th mt cht
22
. V ch mt ln ny
thi, ln sau s vn tt hn.
Bc 1: nh my cc li sut m bn thng dng v bao nhiu ty thch, theo hng (thm
ch theo ct cng c); nh my s nm 1, 2, 3, 4 theo ct, nh l ch cn nh 1, 2 thi. V n
s l mt dy s u, bn nh du khi (tc bi en) hai 1 v 2 ri copy xung n khi no mi
tay th thi. Excel thng minh lun chu o v thu hiu bn.
Bc 2: t chut ti B2, g du bng (=), m ngoc n, nh s 1, g du cng (+),
nhp chut vo B1 ch li sut, ng ngoc n, g du nn (^), nhp chut vo A2 ch s
nm, Enter. B2 s hin ra h s 1.05. y l gi tr tng lai ca mt ng vi thi gian 1 nm v
li sut 5%.
Bc 3: Tri (c nh) A2 (bng cch t con tr vo ch A2 trn thanh cng thc ri bm
mt ln F4, khi a ch b tri s xut hin du $ hai bn), bm Enter hoc nhp chut vo
du "tick" (nm bn tri du "="), tr li. chut vo B2 v copy theo hng, ta s c hng
h s trn.
Bc 4: a chut tr li B2. Tri B1 (bng cch t con tr vo ch B1 trn thanh cng
thc ri bm mt ln F4), m tri A2 (bng cch t con tr vo ch A2 trn thanh cng thc ri
bm ba ln F4
23
), bm Enter hoc nhp chut vo du "tick" , tr li. chut vo v tr B2
v copy theo ct, ta s c ct h s trn.
C th bn tip tc cho ht bng. Lc ny, mt ngn (no ) ca tay tri h trn nt F4
ch tri (bm mt ln F4) v m tri (bm ba ln F4); tay phi r chut n cc cn thit
"tick" OK v copy. V c th, bn cng lm cho cc bng h s cn li nh trong phn ph lc.
Khi thc hin xong, bn nh trang tr cho p (format) v lu gi li (tt nhin). Khi cn
thay i mt li sut no bn ch vic a chut ln cha cc li sut, nh my li sut mong
mun bn s c cc h s thay i tng ng.

22
Ch bi v ti l ha vi bn rng:"Excel d lm, ai d cha bit "chut" ui di hay ngn u c th lm
c". V nh rng: "Yan can cook th cc bn cng c th nu c".
23
Nh l tri th bm mt ln, m tri th bm ba ln nt F4. Vy l m th kh hn?
Thm nh d n u t

Prepared by NGUYEN TAN BINH 11 3/9/2012

2.2 Gi tr hin ti ca mt ng
T cng thc (1) ta suy ra:
PV =
( )
n
FV
1 r +
cng thc (2)
Trong , r: sut chit khu
24

Hoc c th vit cch khc:
PV =
( )
n
1
FV
1 r

+

d dng thy c trong ,
n
1
(1+r)
gi l h s chit khu
25
. V ngc li vi h s tch ly, h s chit khu lun
nh hn hoc bng 1 (s 1). Gi tr hin ti lun nh hn (hoc bng) vi gi tr tng lai.
(Xem ph lc 2-1 Cc bng tnh gi tr thi gian ca tin t cui sch).

24
Thng thng, trong khi tnh gi tr hin ti ngi ta gi r l "sut chit khu" v khi tnh gi tr tng lai th gi l
"li sut". Tuy nhin, khng c g quan trng trong cch gi ny. Nu mun, bn c th gi c hai cng l li sut
hoc cng l sut chit khu cng khng sao. Trong phn nh gi d n sau ny, bn cn s thy sut chit khu
chnh l "sut sinh li ca vn ch s hu" (return on equity) hay l "chi ph s dng vn" (cost of capital). Hoc,
bn tng nghe: dng li sut th trng chit khu dng tin hay chit khu thng phiu, v.v
25
Discounting factor
Thm nh d n u t

Prepared by NGUYEN TAN BINH 12 3/9/2012
Lu rng trong cng thc (2), sut chit khu r v thi gian n u nm di mu s.
Ring n gin v mt s hc cng thy rng, thi gian cng di v sut chit khu cng cao th
gi tr hin ti (PV) cng thp. Ngc li vi cng thc (1) tnh gi tr tng lai, thi gian n cng
di li v li sut r cng cao th gi tr tng lai cng ln.
- V d 12.5: Tnh gi tr hin ti PV
Tng lai 5 nm sau, bn s nhn c s tin l 1610 (n v tin) th by gi gi tr ca n
l bao nhiu, vi c hi sinh li ca vn l 10% nm?
Gi tr hin ti ca s tin 1610 s nhn trong tng lai sau 5 nm, vi sut chit khu 10%
s l:
PV =
( )
5
1
1610
1 10%

+

=
1
1610
1,610

= 1610 0,261
= 1000
Trong , 0,621 l h s chit khu. Xem ph lc, bng gi tr hin ti ca mt ng, ct
10% v hng 5.
Nu ai ha cho bn s tin l 1 ng sau 5 nm, vi li sut ngn hng gi nh l 10%
nm, bn s ni rng: "hy a cho ti 0,621 ng by gi, cng c". Nu bn nhn 0,621 ng
v mang gi n vo ngn hng th bn cng s c 1 ng sau 5 nm.
Ni cch khc, 0,621 ng ngy hm nay (hin ti) s tng ng 1 ng sau 5 nm
(tng lai), vi sut chit khu 10% nm. T y, ngi ta cn c mt khi nim gi l "dng tin
tng ng"
26
.
- V d 12.6: Tnh sut chit khu r
Ly v d 12.5, bn s hi rng vi sut chit khu no m ngi ta cho rng gi tr hin ti
ca s tin 1610 s nhn c sau 5 nm ch l 1000.
Bn s lm bi ton ly tha, cn s ging nh tnh li sut mc 1.1. Mt khc, by gi
bn c cc cng c c lc trn Excel.

Excel: Hm PV thc hin tng t nh FV hng dn trn y.
= -PV(sut chit khu, thi gian, ,gi tr tng lai)/OK.
(nh cch 2 du phy sau khai bo thi gian)
2.3 Gi tr tng lai ca mt ng u nhau
Cng thc
27
:

26
Equivalence.
Thm nh d n u t

Prepared by NGUYEN TAN BINH 13 3/9/2012
FV
A
=
( )
n
1 r 1
A
r
(
+
(
(

cng thc (3)
Trong , A l s tin u (Annuity)
- V d 12.7: Tnh FV
A

Mi u nm, bn mang 100 (n v tin) u nhau gi vo ngn hng, vi li sut l 10%.
Sau 5 nm bn s c s tin l bao nhiu?
FV
A
=
( )
5
1 10% 1
100
10%
(
+
(
(


FV
A
= | | 100 6,105 610,5 =
Trong , 6,105 l gi tr tng lai ca 1 ng u nhau (xem ph lc v cc bng tnh gi
tr tin t)
6,105 chng qua l tng cng cc gi tr tng lai ca 1 ng vi li sut 10% v (khong
cch) thi gian ln lt l 0, 1, 2, 3, 4.
S dng cng thc (1), bn tnh gi tr tng lai ca tng 1 ng v cng li nh sau:
1: Gi tr tng lai ca 1 ng vi r = 10% sau 0 nm.
1,1: Gi tr tng lai ca 1 ng vi r = 10% sau 1 nm.
1,21: Gi tr tng lai ca 1 ng vi r = 10% sau 2 nm.
1,331: Gi tr tng lai ca 1 ng vi r = 10% sau 3 nm.
1,464: Gi tr tng lai ca 1 ng vi r = 10% sau 4 nm.
Cng: 6,105: Gi tr tng lai ca 1 ng u nhau sau 5 nm vi li sut r = 10%.
Chng ta s lu n s 0 (m ti c tnh in m):
- Ly tha trong cc cng thc l ch khong cch thi gian ch khng phi nm lch.
- Thi im chi 1 ng ln cui cng cng chnh l thi im tnh FV nn khong cch thi gian
l 0. [=(1+10%)
0
=1]
- V d 12.8: Tnh A
Mt cng ty mun c s tin 610,5 triu u t my mc thit b vo 5 nm ti th hng
nm phi dnh s tin u nhau l bao nhiu, bit li sut nm l 10%.
T cng thc (3), ta suy ra:
A = FV
A

( )
n
1 r 1

r
(
+
(
(



27
Nu thch, bn c th t chng minh cng thc ny bng cch tnh gi tr tng lai ca tng mn tin ca tng nm
ri tng hp li, hoc c th xem chng 7, sch Phn tch hot ng doanh nghip hoc chng 7, sch Phn tch
qun tr ti chnh, cng mt tc gi v nh xut bn.
Thm nh d n u t

Prepared by NGUYEN TAN BINH 14 3/9/2012
= 610,5
( )
5
1 10% 1

10%
(
+
(
(


= 610,5 6,105
= 100
- V d 12.9: Tnh n
Bn v ngi yu ca bn u mi ra trng, tch cp hng thng c 2 triu ng v
mang gi vo ngn hng, vi li sut 1% thng. Bit bao gi i uyn ng mi c s tin 38
triu lm l hp hn?
Hy bm ly cng thc gc:
FV
A
=
( )
n
1 1% 1
2
1%
(
+
(
(

= 38 (triu ng)
C t nht l ba cch bn i tm n (s thng).
(i) Bn c nhn ln chia xung, chuyn v qua li, khi thun li th ly Ln hai v tnh n.
(ii) Bn hy tnh h s trong ngoc, trng hp ny thy r h s bng 19 (= 38 2), tra bng
gi tr tng lai mt ng u nhau ti ct r=1% v xem ng vi hng n bng bao nhiu,
chnh l s cn tm.
(iii) Bn dng hm Nper trn Excel. Tt nhin ti khuyn bn chn cch th ba v khng qun
hng dn di cui mc ny.
Hai bn cng tnh thy khng cn bao lu na, ch c 17,5 thng na thi (n=17,5).
- V d 12.10: Tnh r
C 2 cng ty bo him nhn th: A v B p dng phng thc bn bo him (tc l vay
tin ca khch hng y) nh sau:
A thu u ca bn hng qu l 1,5 triu ng, nu sau 5 nm m khng c g xy ra, tc
chng c tai nn g c th cng ty s tr li cho bn s tin l: 31,17 triu ng.
B thu u ca bn hng qu l 1,4 triu ng, nu sau 6 nm tt c vn bnh yn, tc nh
tri bn chng h hn g m cng ty vn cha ph sn
28
, th h s tr li cho bn s tin l: 35,11
triu ng.
Bn chn mua bo him (tc cho vay) cng ty no ng v phng din li sut?
gii bi ton ny (cng gip cho cc i l thnh thong vn gi in cho bn y),
bn c cng thc, mm mui v sn sng ch bin.
FV
A
chnh l s tin bn s nhn khi kt thc hp ng,
A l s tin bn phi tr u hng qu,

28
Nu h mang tin ca bn i mua c phiu ca Enron hay WorldCom hay cho mt cng ty no vay ging nh
Nc hoa Thanh Hng trc y, l kt y !
Thm nh d n u t

Prepared by NGUYEN TAN BINH 15 3/9/2012
n l s k (s qu), v d nu 5 nm l 20 qu.
(1) Vi cng ty A
Ta vit li cng thc (3) d theo di
FV
A
=
( )
n
1 r 1
A
r
(
+
(
(


31,17=
( )
20
1 r 1
1,5
r
(
+
(
(


H s trong ngoc, tc gi tr tng lai ca 1 ng bng nhau vi thi gian l 20 k v li
sut l r, s bng:

( )
20
1 r 1

r
(
+
(
(

= 20,78
r = 0,4% (li sut qu, tc 1,6% nm
29
)
V nguyn tc, bn s tra bng gi tr tng lai ca 1 ng bng nhau hng 20 tm thy
h s 20,78, ri nhn ngc ln xem ng vi ct r l bao nhiu.
n y, bn s bo rng khng c s no ging nh vy trong bng c, ch c gn gn
thi. L ra ti phi tho lun vi bn phng php ni suy (m vn phi dng n bng h s)
tnh r trong trng hp ny nhng tm thi ti li mun chn cch khc.
Th nht, bng h s l do bn t lp ( hng dn trn) mun li sut no m chng
c; th hai, bn cng bit s dng hm ly tha, cn s, c bit l Goalseek. V th ba, n s
c hng dn tnh trn Excel cui mc ny.
(2) Vi cng ty B
Cch tnh tng t,
r = 0,38% (li sut qu, tc 1,5% nm)
2.4 Gi tr hin ti ca mt ng u nhau
L mt cng thc c rt nhiu p dng trong thc t, nht l cc lnh vc u t trn th
trng ti chnh - tin t.
Cng thc, suy ra t (1) v (3):
PV
A
=
( )
n
n
1 r 1
A
r(1 r)
(
+
(
+
(

cng thc (4)

29
Tm thi b qua li sut thc v li sut danh ngha cho rc ri. S gp li mc lm pht, trong chng ny.
Thm nh d n u t

Prepared by NGUYEN TAN BINH 16 3/9/2012
- V d 12.11: Tnh PV
A

Bn bit gi thu nh (tr hng nm, vo cui nm) l 500 (n v tin). Nhng nu ngi
cho thu i ly trc mt ln cho 5 nm th bn nn thng lng vi h gi bao nhiu? Nu li
sut bnh qun th trng l 10%.
PV
A
=
( )
5
5
1 10% 1
500
10%(1 10%)
(
+
(
+
(


= 500 [3,791] = 1895 (n v tin)
30

H s chit khu 3,791 chnh l gi tr hin ti ca mt ng bng nhau vi thi gian l 5
nm v sut chit khu l 10%. (Xem ph lc h s chit khu cui sch).
3,791 chng qua l tng cng cc gi tr hin ti ca 1 ng vi sut chit khu 10% v
(khong cch) thi gian ln lt l 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.
S dng cng thc (2), bn tnh gi tr hin ti ca tng 1 ng (ph lc h s chit khu
cui sch) v cng li nh sau:

0,909: Gi tr hin ti ca 1 ng vi r = 10% sau 1 nm.
0,826: Gi tr hin ti ca 1 ng vi r = 10% sau 2 nm.
0,751: Gi tr hin ti ca 1 ng vi r = 10% sau 3 nm.
0,683: Gi tr hin ti ca 1 ng vi r = 10% sau 4 nm.
0,621: Gi tr hin ti ca 1 ng vi r = 10% sau 5 nm.
Cng: 3,791: Gi tr hin ti ca 1 ng u nhau sau 5 nm vi sut chit khu r = 10%.
(Lu rng, thi gian cng di gi tr hin ti cng nh)
- V d 12.12: Tnh r
Bn d tnh mua mt chic xe gn my hiu BadDream III gi hin ti trn th trng l
2000 USD, khng tin nn bn phi mua tr gp.
C hai ca hng bn xe m bn s chn: Ca hng Gia Long v ca hng Hng Vng.
Phng thc thanh ton ca hai ca hng c cho trong bng di y. Bn s chn mua ti ca
hng no, ng v phng din li sut?
Gi xe hin ti 2000
CH Gia Long CH Hng Vng n v
Tr ngay 400 500 USD
Tr chm 1600 1500 USD
Mi ln tr 300 225 USD
S ln tr 6 8 ln
Thi gian tr 12 16 thng
Li sut (2 thng) 3,48% 4,24%
Li sut (1 thng) 1,74% 2,12%

30
Ch khng phi l: 500 5 = 2500!
Thm nh d n u t

Prepared by NGUYEN TAN BINH 17 3/9/2012
- V d 12.13: Tnh A
Gi mua tr ngay ca chic laptop hiu GreenField (vi tnh xch tay - notebook) l 1000
USD, nu mua (bn) tr gp vi li sut bnh qun th trng l 10% nm, tr u trong 3 nm th
mi ln tr s l bao nhiu?
T cng thc (4), ta suy ra:
A = PV
A

( )
n
n
1 r 1

r(1 r)
(
+
(
+
(


= 1000
( )
3
3
1 10% 1

10%(1 10%)
(
+
(
+
(


= 1000 2,487
= 402 USD
Trong , h s chit khu 2,487 l gi tr hin ti ca 1 ng u nhau vi sut chit khu
10% v thi gian l 3 nm (xem ph lc cui sch).
Ta c th ng dng lp mt lch tr n nh sau:
Li sut nm 10%
Vay n (u nm 1) 1,000
Nm 0 1 2 3
N u k 1,000 698 366
Li pht sinh 100 70 37
Tr u, trong : 402 402 402
- N gc 302 332 366
- Li vay 100 70 37
N cui k 1,000 698 366 0
Lu : Cc tnh ton c lm trn s ( bt ri mt!) v, du chm (.) hay phy (,) trn Excel
c biu hin kiu ting Anh ( tp nhn cho quen!). Khi bn tp trung cao vo nhng iu ct
li hay tng ca vn , bn s bit b qun nhng iu vn vt (!)
31
.
- V d 12.14: Tnh n
Nhm gi chn nhn vin gii, cng ty quyt nh mi nhn vin cng lm ch cng ty
bng cch bn mt l c phiu tr gi 20 triu cho anh (hay c) ta, tr vo lng mi thng 0,5 triu.
Li sut bnh qun th trng hin ti 6% nm (theo cch n gin l 0,5% thng), phi tr bao
nhiu thng lng mi xong?
Tng t v d 2.3.3 ca i uyn ng trn y, nhng bn s tnh n trong cng thc (4),
gi tr hin ti ca dng tin u.

31
Trong khi ging bi, ti rt thch cu hi ca sinh vin i loi nh: " tng (hay trit l) ca vn ny l g?", v
hon ton khng thch nhng cu hi nh: "s ny u ra?", "lm sao m tnh c?".
Thm nh d n u t

Prepared by NGUYEN TAN BINH 18 3/9/2012
PV
A
= 20 = 0,5
( )
n
n
1 0,5% 1

0,5%(1 0,5%)
(
+
(
+
(


Bn s bin i, ly Ln v tnh n nh trn y. Tuy nhin hy xem hng dn trn Excel
cui mc ny.
thy n = 45 thng
Ti sao khng phi l 40 thng (= 20 0,5)? n gin l ging nh cng ty cho nhn
vin ny vay (vi li sut 6% nm) ch khng phi cho mn khng.
V vy c cu hi vui. Sau khi cng khai cch tnh trn, nhn vin than phin rng, li sut
th trng hin nay l 12% nm sao cng ty tnh vi ti ch 6% nm? Bn s tr li ra sao v s bo
li cho nhn vin thi gian tr lng l bao nhiu thng?
Trn bng tnh Excel bn di, bn ch cn thay i 6% tr thnh 12% thy rng, thi
gian tr lng s ko di ti 51 thng!
Nh rng, trong cng thc PV ni chung, r nm di mu s, r cng ln th PV cng nh.
Nm na l, thu 20 triu, thi gian phi di hn.
2.5 Quan h gia gi tr hin ti v gi tr tng lai ca cc dng ngn lu
Khi nu cng thc (4) gi tr hin ti ca dng tin u nhau, ta thy rng n c suy ra t
cng thc (3) gi tr tng lai ca dng tin u nhau. Trong khi , gi tr hin ti ca dng tin
u nhau l tng cng gi tr hin ti ca tng dng ngn lu n (cng thc 2), v gi tr tng lai
ca dng tin u nhau l tng cng gi tr tng lai ca tng dng ngn lu n (cng thc 1). Bn
thy y! Bn v anh hng Lng Sn Bc tp trung c ri y.
Mt tnh ton trong bng sau y gip bn t tm tt tng v cc mi quan h gia cc
dng tin.

Li sut 10%
Thi gian (nm) 5
0 1 2 3 4 5 Cng
Ngn lu hin ti 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 - -
H s tch ly 1, 1,1 1,21 1,331 1,464 - 6,105
Gi tr tng lai 1000 1100 1210 1331 1464 - 6105

Sut chit khu 10%
Thi gian (nm) 5
0 1 2 3 4 5 Cng
Ngn lu tng lai - 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 -
H s chit khu - 0,909 0,826 0,751 0,683 0,621 3,791
Gi tr hin ti - 909 826 751 683 621 3791
Ta c:
6105 l gi tr tng lai ca dng tin u nhau l 1000 vi r=10%, thi gian n=5
Thm nh d n u t

Prepared by NGUYEN TAN BINH 19 3/9/2012
3791 l gi tr hin ti ca dng tin u nhau l 1000 vi r=10%, thi gian n=5
Gia chng c th c mi lin h no khng?
Nu xem 6105 l mt dng ngn lu n s nhn trong tng lai sau 5 nm, vi sut
chit khu 10%, gi tr hin ti s l:
S dng cng thc (2):
PV =
( )
5
1
6105
1 10%

+

=
1
6105
1,610

= 6105 0,621 = 3791
(Trong , 0,621 l gi tr hin ti ca 1 ng vi thi gian l 5 nm v sut chit khu l
10%.)
Nu xem 3791 l mt dng ngn lu n hin ti, gi tr tng lai sau 5 nm, vi li sut
10%, s l:
S dng cng thc (1):
FV = 3791 (1+10%)
5

= 3791 1,610 = 6105
(Trong , 1,610 l gi tr tng lai ca 1 ng vi thi gian l 5 nm v li sut l 10%.)
Hoc nhn cch khc,
= 3791 0,621 = 6105
n y c l bn nhun nhuyn nh v k thut chit khu dng tin v bn hon
ton c th t tin vo nhng ngy i thi v ng dng chng vo cc bi ton trong i thc.
2.6 Gi tr hin ti ca dng tin u v tn
T cng thc (4)
PV
A
=
( )
n
n
1 r 1
A
r(1 r)
(
+
(
+
(


Ta c th vit li
PV
A
=
( )
n
A 1
1 -
r
1 r
(
(
+
(


Khi n ln ( ), th
n
1
(1 r) +
0
Thm nh d n u t

Prepared by NGUYEN TAN BINH 20 3/9/2012
V PV
A
s c vit n gin nh sau
PV
A
=
A
r
; hoc r =
A
A
PV
; hoc A = PV
A
r
- V d 12.15: Tnh PV
A

Chnh ph c ch trng giao khon, bn, cho thu doanh nghip nh nc. V nh l bn
doanh nghip ang hot ng ch khng phi bn thanh l ti sn gii th doanh nghip, hai vic
ny rt khc nhau.
D kin dng thu nhp hng nm tng i n nh ca cng ty thuc tnh B l 20 triu, bn
s mua doanh nghip ny vi gi no nu sut sinh li mong mun ca bn l 10% nm.
Doanh nghip lun c gi nh l hot ng lin tc, khng thi hn
32
, v vy gi tr ca
n c th l:
PV
A
=
A
r
=
20
10%
= 200 triu
- V d 12.16: Tnh r
Nhng ti ch tr gi
33
cng ty khong 100 triu thi. V n gin l c hi sinh li cho
ng tin ca ti l:
r =
A
A
PV
=
20
20%
100
=
- V d 12.17: Tnh A
Ngi bn ti, lm n kh khn do c ch chnh sch nng n tnh T quyt nh chuyn
vn v tnh B tr gi cng ty 300 triu, trong khi sut sinh li i hi ca anh ta cng ch l 10%.
Anh ta tnh ton v k vng thu nhp hng nm ca cng ty l bao nhiu?
A = PV
A
r = 300 10% = 30 triu.
- V d 12.18: Tnh A (tip theo)
Cng ty kinh doanh v pht trin nh Qun Bnh Thnh c chnh sch bn nh tr gp cho
ngi ngho, dnh u tin cho nhng c dn thnh ph th thit, c h khu t nm 1975 n nay
cha c nh . Gi hin ti ca cn h l 100 triu, tr mi nm 2 ln trong vng 50 nm. Cng ty
c Thnh ph cho vay v bo m c nh li vay l 8% nm (4% cho 6 thng). Theo bn, mi
ln tr nn bao nhiu?
Bn c th xem 50 nm (100 ln tr) l v tn, v bn c th ngh mi ln tr l:
A = PV
A
r = 100 triu 4% = 4 triu

32
Xem ph lc Cc nguyn tc k ton cn bn cui sch.
33
K c mua ca nh nc cng phi xem hng v tr gi. l th trng m, thun mua va bn. Nu nh nc ch
rao bn nhng sn phm ti, c th l cc doanh nghip quc doanh o ut chun b em chn, th mi mi khng
bn c ci no c. Cc cng ty cn tm tm th nh nc mun bn cng khng c v cc gim c c th gi
qu. C phn ha m cn phi do cch chc, hung h g bn.
Thm nh d n u t

Prepared by NGUYEN TAN BINH 21 3/9/2012
Bn c th s dng cng thc (4), vi cc thnh phn: P = 100 triu ; n = 100
ln ; r = 4%
Ta cng c: A = 4 triu.

HNG DN TRN EXCEL
(i) Gi tr tng lai ca dng tin u (FV
A
)
Vn trong fx/ financial/ FV nh hng dn trn y, dng s liu v d 12.7, tnh FV
A

nh sau

S dng hm FV ca dng tin u cng ging nh FV ca mt s tin n trn y, thm
ch cn d hn. Thc ra hm FV sanh ra phc v cho vic ny, tc tnh gi tr tng lai ca dng
tin u. (Trn kia, ta mn tnh s tin n).
Trong bng c 3 gi tr cn khai bo ln lt:
Rate: li sut (hay sut chit khu)
Nper: S k on (thi gian)
Pmt: S tin (tr) u
Nh vy, nu s dng phm nng, bn ch cn nh:
= FV(li sut, thi gian, s tin u)/OK.
(ii) Gi tr hin ti ca dng tin u (PV
A
)
Vn trong fx/ financial/ PV nh hng dn, dng s liu v d 12.11, tnh PV
A
nh sau
Thm nh d n u t

Prepared by NGUYEN TAN BINH 22 3/9/2012


Vn l hm PV s dng tnh s tin n, nhng by gi n gin hn
= PV(sut chit khu, thi gian, s tin u)/OK.

(iii) Tnh s tin u (A) trong cng thc FV
A

Hm PMT (payment) trong fx/ financial.
S dng s liu trong v d 12.8 trn y, ta tnh s tin u A nh sau:

Thm nh d n u t

Prepared by NGUYEN TAN BINH 23 3/9/2012


Nu s dng phm nng, bn s nh (g):
=PMT(li sut, s nm, ,gi tr tng lai)/OK.
(lu 2 du phy sau s nm, tng ng vi bng tnh trn)

(iv) Tnh s tin u (A) trong cng thc PV
A

Vn l hm PMT trn y nhng thao tc cn n gin hn nhiu. n gin l bi v hm
PMT ra i dng cho mc ch ny, tc tnh A trong cng thc PV
A
.
S dng v d 12.13 v mua tr gp, ta tnh trn Excel nh sau:
Thm nh d n u t

Prepared by NGUYEN TAN BINH 24 3/9/2012


Nu s dng phm nng, bn s nh:
=PMT(sut chit khu, s nm, gi tr hin ti)/OK.
(khng cn 2 du phy nh trong cng thc FV
A
)

(v) Tnh r trong cng thc FV
A

Hm RATE (li sut) trong loi hm financial (ti chnh), trong fx.
S dng v d 12.10, tnh li sut cng ty A.
Thm nh d n u t

Prepared by NGUYEN TAN BINH 25 3/9/2012


Lu :
Vi hm FV phi ghi m, tc phi nh thm du tr - khi khai bo, v Excel hiu l
tr.
Nu s dng phm nng (phm tt), ta nh:
=Rate (S k, S tin u, ,Gi tr tng lai)
(nh cch 2 du phy , sau S tin u.

(vi) Tnh r trong cng thc PV
A

Dng s liu trong v d 12.12, mua xe BadDream III tr gp ta s dng hm Rate trong
Excel nh sau:

Thm nh d n u t

Prepared by NGUYEN TAN BINH 26 3/9/2012


Hm Rate trong gi tr hin ti n gin hn trong gi tr tng lai, ch cn khai bo lin tc
(khng cch hai du phy).
= Rate (S k tr, -S tin tr u, Gi tr hin ti)/OK.
(Nh nh du tr - trc Pmt, v Excel hiu l tr.)
Ch cn tnh cho ca hng Gia Long, copy sang cho ca hng Hng Vng.



(vii) Tnh n trong cng thc FV
A

S dng hm Nper trn Excel:
Thm nh d n u t

Prepared by NGUYEN TAN BINH 27 3/9/2012
Excel/ fx/ financial/ Nper
34

=Nper(li sut,s tin u, ,gi tr tng lai)
Lu : cch 2 du phy sau s tin u; s tin u Excel hiu l tr
35
, nn phi c ghi
m (<0).
Dng v d 12.9 tnh n trn Excel nh sau:


Kt qu: n = 17,5.
(viii) Tnh n trong cng thc PV
A

S dng hm Nper trn Excel:
Excel/ fx/ financial/ Nper
=Nper(sut chit khu,s tin u,gi tr hin ti)
Lu : cc gi tr khai bo lin nhau, khng cn cch 2 du phy sau s tin u nh trong
cng thc gi tr tng lai trn y; s tin u Excel hiu l tr
36
, nn phi c ghi m (nh du
tr - trc Pmt).
Dng v d 12.14 tnh n trn Excel nh sau:


34
Nper: number of period: s k on.
35
Pmt: payment: tr
36
Pmt: payment: tr
Thm nh d n u t

Prepared by NGUYEN TAN BINH 28 3/9/2012

Kt qu: n = 45 thng
Nu li sut 12% nm (tc 1% thng) th thi gian tr lng l:


Bn ch cn a chut vo B1 v nh 12%, s thng s thay i thnh 51 thng nh trn.

Li tha vui cng bn,
Qua hn 40 trang vt ln vi nhng con s, cng thc cng cc cng c trn bng tnh
Excel, bn thy rng k thut chit khu dng tin khng qu kh nh bn tng ngh. V c
bit, nhng thao tc trn Excel cng tht l d dng. Nu gi nh bn cha tng ng n cc
hm ti chnh (financial) nh vy bao gi th li khuyn l: khng cn phi b thi gian n lp,
m hy ngi quy vi my tnh ca bn mt ngy (hoc vi ngy, hoc lu hn, v c th s b
bnh ghin), tt c ri s thnh thc. l cch m tc gi nhng dng ny tng lm. Yan
can cook th cc bn cng c th nu c!
Thm nh d n u t

Prepared by NGUYEN TAN BINH 29 3/9/2012
III. Cc ch tiu dng nh gi d n
Ch tiu ni chung l nhng thc o, dng nh gi mt hin trng no , l cng c phn
tch nh lng. Cng nh phn tch hiu qu s dng vn cn phi tnh s vng quay vn
37
,
nh gi (thm nh) mt d n u t ngi ta cng phi dng n cc ch tiu c th.
Mi ch tiu u hu ch, u gip ta nhng gc nhn khc nhau v hiu qu d n. Ni cch
khc, c th s dng tt c cc ch tiu vo trong cng mt d n. Tuy nhin, trong mt s trng
hp phi so snh cc d n c tnh loi tr nhau (thc hin d n ny th b qua d n kia), gia cc
ch tiu s c nhng mu thun, thm ch tri ngc nhau. Mt s trng hp khc, c nhng ch
tiu khng th no p dng c.
3.1 Gi tr hin ti rng
Gi tr hin ti rng c dch t nhm ch Net Present Value, vit tt l NPV, c ngha l
hiu s gia gi tr hin ti ca cc dng thu v gi tr hin ti ca cc dng chi d kin ca mt d
n u t. NPV l mt ch tiu ph bin, n mc n tr thnh mt trong cc nguyn tc nh gi
d n.
3.1.1 ngha v cng thc tnh NPV
Theo nh ngha trn:
NPV = Gi tr hin ti dng thu - Gi tr hin ti dng chi
Cng thc tm tt NPV:
NPV = PV (dng thu) - PV (dng chi)
V mt tnh ton, tt c cc dng tin (thu hay chi) u c a v cng mt thi im
hin ti thng qua mt sut chit khu (nhm t gi tr dng tin tng ng), tin hnh so
snh. Nu NPV>0 c ngha l dng tin thu vo ln hn dng tin chi ra; v ngc li, NPV<0 c
ngha l dng tin chi ra nhiu hn l thu v.
Nh vy, ngha ca NPV>0 l s giu c hn ln, ti sn ca nh u t s n ln hn sau
khi thc hin d n.
C th nhng ch tiu khc (sau y) cng l nhng thc o gi tr d n, ng di cc
gc nhn khc nhau. Tuy nhin, khng mt nh u t no, k c cc d n ca chnh ph
38
, m li
khng quan tm n s giu c hn ln ny. Chnh v l do , ch tiu NPV c xem l ch tiu
mnh nht dng nh gi cc d n u t.

37
Nghin cu chng 14.
38
C quan nim cho rng, nhng d n phc v nhim v chnh tr, x hi, tc d n cng (public project) th khng
cn thm nh hiu qu kinh t. l mt tng sai lm, duy ch. K c cc d n thuc nhng lnh vc nhy
cm nht, mc d kh khn nhng hon ton c th lng ha c cc dng thu, chi v do , vn c th s dng
ch tiu giu c hn ln ny.
(Tc gi hy vng rng quyn Thit lp v thm nh d n u t, d nh xut bn trong tng lai gn, s cp k
lng v gi ti chnh v gi kinh t cng cc phn tch x hi ca mt d n u t)
Thm nh d n u t

Prepared by NGUYEN TAN BINH 30 3/9/2012
Nu bn thch th hin tr tu hn, tc ngi c phi nhc c u, thm ch kh hiu,
khi ngh ti NPV th bn vit nh sau
39
:
NPV =
( )
( )
n
i i
i
i 0
B C
1 r
=


Hoc c th vit cho gn hn:
NPV = ( )
n
i i
i 0
PV B C
=


Trong ,
i : k hiu cc nm ca d n (lu : cui nm 0 bng u nm 1)
r : sut chit khu
n : s nm (hay s k) ca d n
PV : gi tr hin ti (thi im nm 0)
B
i
: dng thu (ngn lu vo) ca nm th i
C
i
: dng chi (ngn lu ra) ca nm th i
(B
i
C
i
) : dng rng (ngn lu rng
40
) ca nm th i
PV (B
i
C
i
) : gi tr hin ti rng ca nm th i
n
i 0 =

: tng cng cc gi tr hin ti (t 0 n n)


Din ngha cng thc ny ra ting B Ngoi th vn l: hiu s gia gi tr hin ti ca cc
dng thu v gi tr hin ti ca cc dng chi d kin ca mt d n u t. Mt ln na, cng thc
ch l hnh thc tm tt cc tng, mt khi bn nm k phn hn bn c th d dng t vit ra
cc cng thc theo bt c hnh thc no, vi nhng k hiu no, m bn thch.
- V d 12.19: Tnh NPV ca d n
Bn mun u t mt ca hng photocopy trc cng trng i hc ca bn v t tn n
l i Sinh Vin. D kin d n s cho dng ngn lu rng (NCF: net cash flows) vo cui cc
nm nh bng sau (n v tin). Trong , NCF l hiu s ca dng thu v dng chi. Ti mt nm
no , NCF<0 c ngha l dng chi ln hn dng thu; ngc li, NCF>0 c ngha l dng thu ln
hn dng chi
41
.
Gi nh rng, my mc thit b sau 5 nm khng cn gi tr tn dng (nu d kin c gi tr
tn dng th n s tr thnh mt dng thu t vic thanh l ti sn vo nm cui d n, tc nm th
5); v sut sinh li i hi cho ng vn hin ti ca bn l 20% nm (nh hn bn khng lm, v
bn cn c c hi u t khc cng ha hn sinh li 20%).
ng lo lng cc tnh ton m trc ht hy xc nh cc tng chnh cho bi ton ny.

39
Ti th vn c lo lng rng, cng thc rc ri lm cho ngi ta s v khng mun nghin cu tip tc, b l c
hi nhn ra rng ni dung ca vn tht v cng n gin, thit thc v hu ch.
40
Xem thm chng 13 Bo co ngn lu
41
Xem bo co ngn lu ca d n chng 13 Bo co ngn lu.
Thm nh d n u t

Prepared by NGUYEN TAN BINH 31 3/9/2012
- Th nht, chi ph c hi s dng vn ca bn l 20% s chnh l sut chit khu (r = 20%) ca
d n.
- S tin rng (hiu s ca dng thu v dng chi) ghi trong cc nm 1, 2, , c ngha l trong
tng lai 1, 2, nm na, bn mi thu c. Trong khi , dng tin rng 10.000 th phi chi
ra by gi (cui nm 0 hay u nm 1)
- Bn s a cc dng tin rng d kin thu c trong tng lai v gi tr hin ti (cng vi thi
im dng chi, tc nm 0) thng qua sut chit khu r=20%.
- Cui cng, hiu s gia chng, tc NPV s tr li cho bn cu hi v hiu qu d n.
Kt qu: NPV = 684>0
Sut chit khu 20%
Nm 0 1 2 3 4 5
NCF (10,000) 5,000 4,500 3,500 2,000 1,000
NPV 684

C t nht l hai cch
42
bn tnh c NPV = 684.
Cch 1: Tnh gi tr hin ti tng dng tin (theo cng thc 1) ri cng li, nh sau:
Gi tr hin ti cc dng thu:
S dng cng thc (1) vi r = 20%, n ln lt l 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, ta tnh c cc gi tr hin ti
ca cc dng thu nh sau.
PV
1
= 5000
1
1
(1 20%) +
= 5000 0,833 = 4.166
Trong , 0,833 l gi tr hin ti ca mt ng vi thi gian l 1 nm v r = 20%. (Xem
ph lc v bng h s tin t cui sch)
Tng t,
PV
2
= 4500
2
1
(1 20%) +
= 4500 0,694 = 3.124
V tip tc,
PV
3
= 3500 0,579 = 2.027
PV
4
= 2000 0,482 = 964
PV
5
= 1000 0,402 = 402
Cng PV
1
n PV
5
= 10.684 (lm trn s): tng gi tr hin ti cc dng thu.
Gi tr hin ti cc dng chi:

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Ti trnh by hai cch ch nhm gip bn c d hiu. Cn nu l sinh vin th bn c th phn loi hai cch nhng
theo mc ch khc: cch dng i thi ht mn trn lp (c v khng cho mang bng tnh), cch dng thi trn
my tnh (v cng l cch tnh trong i tht sau ny).
Thm nh d n u t

Prepared by NGUYEN TAN BINH 32 3/9/2012
PV
0
= 10.000
0
1
(1 20%) +
= 10.000 1 = 10.000
(S tin 10.000 chi vo thi im tnh gi tr hin ti, khng c khong cch thi gian, n=0. V
(1+20%)
0
= 1)
Gi tr hin ti rng (NPV):
NPV = 10.684 10.000 = 684 (n v tin)
Cch 2: S dng hm NPV trn Excel (hng dn cui mc ny).
3.1.2 Nhng sai lm thng gp khi s dng NPV
(i) Dng ngn lu v li nhun
Ta ch c th ngn gn m ni rng, NPV l gi tr hin ti ca cc dng tin ch khng
phi l li nhun. V li nhun khng phi l dng tin (ngn lu). Rng c li nhng khng c
tin tip tc hot ng v vn phi ph sn C l tt nht l bn nn dnh cht thi gian qu
bu ca bn xem nhng vn nh vy Chng 13 Bo co ngn lu.
(ii) Gi tr hin ti ca dng chi v tng vn u t
Nu ta vit:
NPN = PV (dng thu) - Tng vn u t, l hon ton khng chnh xc, thm ch l sai v
nguyn l
43
. V sao?
Gi nh d n ca hng photocopy i Sinh Vin trong v d 12.19 trn y c chia lm
2 ln u t: cui nm 0 (u nm 1) u t 7000; v cui nm 1 (u nm 2) u t 3000 th kt
qu nh gi d n cho bi ch tiu NPV s hon ton khc.
C hai cch bn ngh (v tnh) v kt qu mi ny.
Th nht, mt cch ngn gn, s tin 3000 n mt nm sau mi chi, gi tr hin ti ca n
ch l:
PV
1
= 3000
1
1
(1 20%) +
= 3000 0,833 = 2499
C th ni cch khc, hin ti ch cn chi ra 2499 gi vo ngn hng (gi nh cng li sut
20% nm) th mt nm sau, tc n lc cn chi u t cng s nhn c 3000.
Nh vy, gi tr hin ti ca dng chi ch l:
7000 + 2499 = 9499
S tin u t s tit kim c 501 (= 10000 - 9499).

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Nu bn ngh nh th chng t bn hy cn nh hng bi cn bnh c, bnh bao cp. C ngh rng thm nh d
n l lm sao cho d n trn tra, va lng ai nhm xin c giy php v nhn c vn! Cn bnh i km l
bnh hnh thc, bnh khnh thnh, cho mng u t mt ln, trong qu trnh u t ch c dng chi ra m thi.
Trong khi , khng ai cm d n khch sn 12 tng, ang xy tng 5 th t tng trt n tng 3 c th bt u
khai thc.
Thm nh d n u t

Prepared by NGUYEN TAN BINH 33 3/9/2012
NPV gi y s l:
10684 - 9499 = 1185
NPV tng ln mt gi tr bng vi s tit kim c, tc 501 (=1185 - 684)
Th hai, mt cch chuyn nghip hn, ta lp li bo co ngn lu ca d n v tnh NPV
cho dng ngn lu rng (NCF) mi nh sau:


Sut chit khu 20%
Nm 0 1 2 3 4 5
NCF (7,000) 2,000 4,500 3,500 2,000 1,000
NPV 1185

Nhn xt:
- Ngn lu rng cui nm 0 (u nm 1) ch l: - 7000
- Ngn lu rng cui nm 1 (u nm 2) ch l: 2000 (=5000 - 3000)
(iii) Sut chit khu - mt vn nan gii
Gi nh dng ngn lu c xc nh
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, mt s thay i trong sut chit khu s lm
thay i NPV.
Tr li v d 12.19 ca d n ca hng photocopy i Sinh Vin trn y, gi nh mt nh
u t khc cho rng chi ph c hi s dng vn ca anh (hay c) ta l 30%. Vi dng ngn lu
rng gi nh ging ht nhau, kt lun v hiu qu d n s ra sao?
NPV= -928<0
Sut chit khu 30%
Nm 0 1 2 3 4 5
NCF (10,000) 5,000 4,500 3,500 2,000 1,000
NPV (928)

Bn c thy rng cng mt d n, cng d liu, ch khc nhau sut chit khu s dn n kt
qu NPV khc nhau. Trc khi bn lao vo nghin cu nhng vn hc ba nh vy, qua v d
nh ny ti ch mun bn nhn ra mt chn l n gin rng: mt d n tt cho bn (hay cng ty

44
Bng cc iu tra nghin cu cu ca th trng, ni dung ca mt mn hc khc, khng thuc phm vi quyn
sch ny.
Thm nh d n u t

Prepared by NGUYEN TAN BINH 34 3/9/2012
ca bn) th khng hn l tt cho tt c mi ngi. V v th, khng c mt sut chit khu no c
th dng chung cho tt c
45
.
T , bn c th suy ngh n nhng kha cnh rng ln hn: ti sao mt cng ty nc
ngoi u t vo ngnh may mc Vit Nam chng hn, li i hi mt sut sinh li 20%, trong
khi sut sinh li bnh qun ngnh ny chnh quc ch l 6%? Ti sao sut sinh li i hi cc
d n u t trc tip li cao hn u t gin tip, ngnh cu ng li cao hn ngnh ch bin thc
phm
Phm vi c hn ca quyn sch ny khng i su tho lun v vn chi ph s dng vn,
tuy nhin bn hy tin rng y l mt ti vn (v s) cn rng m lu di cho con ng nghin
cu khoa hc ca bn, nu bn quyt nh dn thn.
V hy lun nh rng, khng c bt k mt kha hc no hay mt gio s lng danh no c
th tr li ngay cu hi: sut chit khu ca mt d n c th no m bn sp thc hin nn l
bao nhiu?.
Trn th gii c hn nhng quyn sch ch dnh tho lun v chi ph s dng vn
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, ngay c
chng ny cng c mt tit mc cp n sut chit khu, tuy nhin cng ch l nhng
tng nhm hng bn n nhng tnh ton c th cho ring mnh m thi.
Nhng nu bn c p ti phi a ra mt li khuyn chung chung (ging nh bc s no
cng khuyn ti nn b thuc l, c ph, bia ru vy) th nhng l:
- Hy tin chnh mnh trc . Nu bn (hoc cng ty bn) v ang (hoc cm thy c th c
c hi) to ra mt sut sinh li hng nm l 15% th chnh l sut chit khu ca d n bn
sp thc hin. Nhng d n phi cng ngnh vi bn ang hot ng. Chng th no ang kinh
doanh vng bc c li sut 10% lp d n sn xut mui
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cng ch i hi 10%, trong khi
ngnh ny c sut sinh li bnh qun 30%. Vic xc nh sai sut chit khu s bp mo NPV v
s dn n hai loi sai lm, thy u nghim trng:
- Sai lm loi I: chuc ly nhng d n ti, do nh gi NPV qu cao, b l v ph sn.
- Sai lm loi II: b qua nhng d n tt, do nh gi NPV qu thp, mt c hi kim li.
Trong hai sai lm trn, sai lm loi II thng kh nhn din hn mc d c khi l
nhng sai lm tai hi n khng khip.
- Nu bit c sut sinh li bnh qun ngnh th l c s, c th cng thm vi phn trm li
th hoc ri ro, nu cm nhn hoc d tnh c.
- Tham kho sut sinh li bnh qun ngnh cc nc ln cn, c cng c im, trnh kinh
t.
- Cc d n cng loi ca nc ngoi u t Vit Nam, c iu chnh t l ri ro quc gia.

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Nu bn cho rng, sut chit khu nn l li sut ngn hng th li quay v bnh c. V nu nh vy, d n ca
hng photocopy trn y lun c kt lun l tt ! V nh th th khng cn phi thm nh na. Ai s ngi li,
cng vi Excel, vit mt cun t in NPV cho tt c cc d n: t sn xut nc hoa cho n xng mm tm, t
khch sn 5 sao cho n nh my ng, t d n ao tm cho n nng trng trng c nui b !
46
Gn nh bt k sch ti chnh cng ty (corporate finance) no cng c phn cp n chi ph s dng vn, tuy
nhin tng i y v h thng hn, bn c th c quyn Cost of capital: Estimation and Applications ca
Shannon P. Pratt, NXB John Wiley & Sons, Inc., nm 1998.
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Cn phn bit nhng d n thuc loi sa cha nng cp, m rng sn xut hay u t sn phm mi.
Thm nh d n u t

Prepared by NGUYEN TAN BINH 35 3/9/2012
V tic thay! Mt ch tiu mnh m v thuyt phc nht li cha ng mt nhc im trm
kha nht, l vn sut chit khu. Cng c th nhn di gc cnh khc, ch tiu chnh xc nht
v ng tin cy nht li thng l nhng ch tiu kh nut nht
48
.
Bn v sut chit khu

Bn thy y, chng ta lun c chic hp m th gin. Ln ny chng ta tho lun v sut chit
khu ca cc d n cng (public project), v d l mt d n cu ng c thu ph, chng hn.
Mc ch ca cc nh u t l li nhun, l s giu c hn ln sau khi thc hin d n. V
v vy, ch tiu NPV vn c s dng thm nh d n.
NPV ca d n cu ng cng l thuc vo cc yu t nh bao d n khc m chng ta
nghin cu. l: dng chi, dng thu, thi gian v sut chit khu.
Dng chi c xc nh do thit k, quy m, kt cu (gi nh l chnh xc); Dng thu c
xc nh do biu gi (thu ph) quy nh. Cu hi cn li l: cn phi nh u t khai thc thu ph
bao nhiu nm t c mt sut sinh li mong mun l r% no .
n y th bn hiu, thi gian lc ny ch cn l thuc vo sut chit khu r. Vic xc
nh sai lnh trong r s dn n sai lnh nhiu nm cho quyn khai thc ca nh u t.
Nu mi ngy, mt d n cu ng no thu ph c 100 triu ng chng hn, tnh sai
5 nm, t nc chng ta s chy mu bit bao nhiu? Ai l ngi chu trch nhim thm nh
canh ca cc d n loi ny? Hi, tc l tr li.
Ni th gin tiu su m li cng su thm.
3.2 Sut sinh li ni b
Sut sinh li ni b c dch t nhm ch Internal Rate of Return, vit tt l IRR. l
mt sut chit khu m ti , lm cho NPV = 0. IRR cng l mt ch tiu ph bin, ch sau NPV,
thng i lin v c mi quan h vi NPV.
3.2.1 ngha v cng thc tnh
IRR chnh l kh nng sinh li ch thc ca bn thn d n. IRR ch thay i khi cc yu t
ni ti, tc gi tr cc dng ngn lu thay i. Khi thy NPV=0 bn thng ngh rng d n khng
mang li hiu qu no. Nhng bn nh rng, ngay c khi NPV=0 cng c ngha l d n mang
li cho ng vn ca bn mt sut sinh li, chnh l IRR.
Nh vy nu bn mong mun mt sut sinh li t d n l r = 20%, trong khi IRR = 24%
(>20%) chng hn, th bn tha mn v c th quyt nh u t.
Theo nh ngha trn y, IRR l mt sut chit khu m ti NPV=0, nh vy nu ta chn
sut chit khu r=20% s lm cho NPV>0 (v r<IRR). C th ni khc i, khi NPV>0 th IRR>r.
Nh vy, hai iu kin ny cng c tha.
By gi, gi nh mong mun sut sinh li t d n l r = 30%, trong khi IRR vn l 24%
(<30%) chng hn, th bn khng hi lng v c th quyt nh khng u t
49
.

48
V cng vy, c bi cho sinh vin chp th d hn nhiu so vi ging bi cho vin hiu; thy c ni v bt sinh
vin phi, v ch c nghe th d hn l trao i tho lun gip sinh vin nm r tng c th ng dng
trong i thc sau ny.
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Tham vng cao qu kh t? Nu mong mun ca bn thp hn hoc bng 24% th c l mi vic s tt p? l
cch ni a, nhng s tht l l thuc vo c hi sinh li ca ng vn ca mi ngi (hay cng ty).
Thm nh d n u t

Prepared by NGUYEN TAN BINH 36 3/9/2012
Tng t trn, IRR = 24% l sut chit khu lm cho NPV=0 th sut chit khu r = 30% s
lm cho NPV<0. Nh vy, hai iu kin ny cng khng tha.
Hai ch tiu ny c v l cp tin o bi trng y. H ci ny gt th ci kia OK v
ngc li, cng lc
50
. Nhng gt hay lc th da vo g? Cng li l mt sut sinh li mong mun
no .
Mt nhn xt khc c t ra. Nh vy th ch cn mt ch tiu l ?
Chng ta s tho lun ngay bn di y v cc nhc im ca IRR, tuy nhin trc ht
cn lu rng cp ch tiu ny ch thng nht trong tng d n (bnh thng), chng s khng cn
gii thch c cho nhau khi so snh 2 d n khc nhau v thi im bt u, quy m v vng i
d n.
Cng thc! chng cn cng thc no c, ch cn cho NPV=0, gii phng trnh tm r,
chnh l IRR. Hoc cho i mt r bt k tm NPV, nu NPV cha bng 0, tip tc thay r v m
mm
51
cho n khi no c th thi!
Nhng nu c lm ra v phc tp, bn c th gom cc tng vo cch vit bng cc k
hiu cho n oai:
IRR = r
*
NPV =
( )
( )
n
i i
i
*
i 0
B C
1 r =

= 0
V d: Mt d n c vng i 1 nm, dng ngn lu rng u nm 1 (cui nm 0) l: - 1000;
cui nm th 1 l: 1200 (n v tin) th IRR l bao nhiu?
NPV =
( )
0 1
1200 1000
(1 r)
1 r

+
+
=0
Vy,
1
1200
1000
(1 r)
=
+

Suy ra, 1 + r = 1,2; V r = 0,2 hay 20%.
IRR = 20%
Tt nhin v d n gin ny ch nhm cung cp tng v IRR. Nu d n c vng i 2
nm, 3 nm, th bn hnh dung cn phi gii phng trnh bc 2, bc 3 V cng hy hi
sau phn gii. By gi th hy quan tm n th IRR di y.
3.2.2 th quan h gia NPV v IRR
Dng s liu d n i Sinh Vin v th nh sau:

50
Hu ht, nhng khng phi l tt c u nh vy. Nu hun, bn hy ngi ln Excel v th xem sao!
51
Trial and Error: phng php m mm (th v sai, ri th v sai )
Thm nh d n u t

Prepared by NGUYEN TAN BINH 37 3/9/2012

Bn lm g, thy g, hc g v tnh g qua th ny? Cn ti th nh rng bn tng v
nhng th tng t nh vy cc chng trc (t nht l trong cc chng 2, 5, 6).
Lm:
Th nht, bn to hai ct IRR v NPV nh hnh trn. IRR th bn t nh vo theo mun,
chng hn nh 10% v 12% ri bi en, copy xung 30% (khong cch u nhau l 2%). Cn
NPV? i nhiu qu lm sao tnh ni! Khng sao! Bn ch cn tnh mt gi tr NPV thi, ri copy
xung, mun hng trm NPV th Excel cng cho bn trong ci chp mt.
Bn c thy ti cho hin cc cng thc ln khng? Khi khai bo hm NPV, bn sut chit
khu t do ( A6), cn cc khai bo cho gi tr cc dng tin th tri li (bm mt ln F4)/ OK. NPV
tng ng vi r=10% s hin ra B6. R chut nh nhng xung gc di bn phi B6, khi
thy xut hin ti y du ch thp mu en, nhp double click (nhp p, tc 2 ln chut, tt nhin
l chut tri), ct NPV s xung nh hnh trn.
Th hai, bi en hai ct (k c tn - label), vo biu tng v th v thao tc ging nh
cc chng trc.
Thy:
Trong 2 ct s, c cp rt quen. r=20% v NPV=684, l kt qu ca v d d n ca hng
photocopy i Sinh Vin trn y m. Tc gi li, nn vn ly v d c thi.
Khi r qua khi 22%, n gn 24% th NPV bt u m. Nhn sang th, thy ng NPV
ct trc honh r ti 24%, v lc ny NPV=0 (nhn v trc tung NPV). r = 24% = IRR.
(Xem hng dn tnh IRR ca d n ca hng photocopy i Sinh Vin trn Excel cui
mc ny, thy IRR = 24%)
Thm nh d n u t

Prepared by NGUYEN TAN BINH 38 3/9/2012
Hc:
Bt c im no bn chn trn ng NPV phn bn trn trc honh, tc phn NPV > 0,
t chiu xung trc honh gp mt gi tr r < IRR. Hoc pht biu cho thun cu hn: Khi NPV
> 0 th IRR > r
Tng t, bt c im no bn chn trn ng NPV phn bn di trc honh, tc phn
NPV<0, t chiu xung trc honh gp mt gi tr r >IRR. Hoc c th pht biu cho thun cu:
Khi NPV< 0 th IRR< r
Tnh:
- Gii phng trnh ng thng dng y=a+bx=0 tm IRR.
Nu bn chn mt r no , chng hn r=20%, tng ng vi NPV=684; V bn chn mt r
khc, chng hn r=30%, tng ng vi NPV=-928. Nh vy, bn c hai to ca hai im. Qua
bn c th vit phng trnh ng thng theo cng thc:

1 1
2 1 2 1
y y x x
y y x x

=


Thay cc gi tr x
1
, x
2
, y
1
, y
2
vo v a v dng phng trnh y=a+bx, cho bng 0 tm x,
tc IRR.
Nu qun, bn c th xem li chng 3 Cc phng php k thut s dng trong phn tch.
- p dng ng thc tam gic ng dng tnh IRR.
T cc im chn trn y, bn s lp c ng thc tam gic ng dng v tm c
IRR.
Cng c th gi l phng php ni suy, theo cng thc sau:
IRR = r
1
+ (r
2
- r
2
)
1
1 2
NPV
NPV NPV

+

Trong , (r
2
r
1
)>0 r
2
> r
1

Dng v d d n Ca hng photocopy i Sinh Vin tnh IRR trn y ta kim nghim
li cng thc:
r
1
= 20% NPV
1
= 684
r
2
= 30% NPV
2
= -928
Theo cng thc ta c:
IRR = 20% + (30% - 20%)
684
24%
684 928
=
+

Thm nh d n u t

Prepared by NGUYEN TAN BINH 39 3/9/2012
3.2.3 ng dng IRR trong u thu tri phiu
Bn c bo thy cuc u thu tri phiu chnh ph tht bi, tc ngi mua hay ngi cho
vay (l cc ngn hng u t) v ngi bn hay ngi i vay (i din l B Ti chnh) khng gp
nhau. B Ti chnh i gi 92000 ng, cc ngn hng tr gi (cao nht) ch l 85000 ng.
Bit rng tri phiu c mnh gi 100.000 (ng), li sut tri phiu c nh 8% nm (c tc
tr c nh mi nm: 8000 ng, nm cui cng tr li v vn gc: 108.000 ng), thi gian o
hn 5 nm.
Tt nhin B Ti chnh l ngi i vay nn mun li sut thp v cc ngn hng, l ngi
cho vay nn mun li sut cao. Nhng cc li sut l bao nhiu?
B Ti chnh mun li sut l 10% nn gi gi 92000 ng.
Nm 0 1 2 3 4 5
NCF (92,000) 8,000 8,000 8,000 8,000 108,000
IRR 10%
Cc ngn hng mun li sut l 12% nn tr gi 85000 ng.
Nm 0 1 2 3 4 5
NCF (85,000) 8,000 8,000 8,000 8,000 108,000
IRR 12%
Tng t nh vy, nu bn l i din ca ngn hng NCB i u thu. Ra i xp c dn
rng: c th xung ti 11,5% th rng, thp hn th v, bn s tr gi cao nht cho l tri
phiu l bao nhiu?
52

Nm 0 1 2 3 4 5
NCF (87,202) 8,000 8,000 8,000 8,000 108,000
IRR 11,5%
Chc hn l bn cn nh hm i tm kt qu Goal Seek nghin cu t u hm. Xem
li cht nh!


52
Nh gi sn cng thc trn Laptop, ch khng phi ngi m ni suy!
Thm nh d n u t

Prepared by NGUYEN TAN BINH 40 3/9/2012
Ch cn vic bm nt OK, mt ci nt d nht, to nht
53
, cha 12% s thnh 11.5%, cn
cha gi tr (85,000) s tr thnh gi tr m bn ch i: (87,202).
3.2.4 Nhng nhc im ca IRR
Trong mt s trng hp d n c nhng dng ngn lu bt ng, IRR khng th tnh c.
V d: C mt d n khai thc m, u nm 1 (cui nm 0) chi ra 1200, cui nm 1 thu v
5000. Nm 2 v nm 3 sau phi chi tin san lp, tr li mt bng c cho nh nc.
Bo co ngn lu ca d n, c th nh sau:



Vi sut chit khu 10%, y l d n rt c hiu qu (NPV=1437), tuy nhin IRR l bao
nhiu? Hay ni cch khc, vi sut chit khu no s lm cho NPV=0? Tt nhin khng th tnh
c.
Nhc im khc, trong trng hp so snh la chn d n c tnh loi tr nhau, kt qu
IRR thng khng th dn n kt lun hoc c kt lun sai lch.
V d:
C dng ngn lu ca 2 d n A v B nh sau:
Nm 0 1
D n A (1,000) 1,400 IRR
A
= 40%
D n B (10,000) 14,000 IRR
B
= 40%
Gi nh ngun lc khng hn ch, nu ch dng ch tiu n c IRR nh gi, ta thy
c hai d n u nh nhau, u c IRR l 40%. V bn khng th kt lun d n no tt hn. (Nu
bn ni d n B c v li nhiu hn, tc l bn s dng mt ch tiu khc ri!)
By gi ta thay i mt cht trong dng ngn lu ca d n B v cho sut chit khu l 10%
(tt nhin cho c 2 d n). Tnh NPV?

53
Ti thy, sau khi khai bo (np s) xong, nhng ngi t tin thng ging mt ci tht mnh nt ny (OK hay
Enter), hnh nh t thng!
Thm nh d n u t

Prepared by NGUYEN TAN BINH 41 3/9/2012
Sut chit khu 10%
Nm 0 1
D n A (1,000) 1,400 IRR
A
= 40% NPV
A
= 273
D n B (10,000) 13,000 IRR
B
= 30% NPV
B
= 1,818
Chng l no bn li chn A do c IRR cao hn B (40%>30%), trong khi B lm cho bn
giu c hn ln rt nhiu so vi A (1818>273)!
Nh nu trn y, hai d n c thi im bt u khc nhau, ch tiu IRR khng th
phn bit c d n no hiu qu.
V d: Xt IRR v NPV ca 2 d n di y.
Sut chit khu 20%
Nm 0 1 2 3 NPV IRR
D n A (10,000) 12,500 417 25%
D n B - - (10,000) 12,500 289 25%
Hai d n u c IRR=25%, trong khi NPV
A
>NPV
B
rt nhiu (417>289).
Tng t, khng th s dng IRR so snh hai d n c cng thi im bt u nhng
vng i khc nhau.
V d:
Thm nh d n u t

Prepared by NGUYEN TAN BINH 42 3/9/2012
Sut chit khu 20%
Nm 0 1 2 3 NPV IRR
D n A (10,000) 12,500 417 25%
D n B (10,000) - 18,500 706 23%
IRR
A
>IRR
B
(25%>23%), tuy nhin NPV
A
<NPV
B
(417<706)
3.3 T s li ch v chi ph
T s li ch v chi ph c dch t nhm ch Benefit -Cost Ratio, c th vit tt l BCR
hay B/C. l mt t l gia gi tr hin ti dng thu so vi gi tr hin ti dng chi. Ch tiu ny
cng ph bin, i sau NPV v IRR, c mi lin h vi NPV. C th ni BCR l mt cch nhn khc
v NPV.
3.3.1 ngha v cng thc BCR
L mt ch tiu o lng hiu qu ca d n bng hnh nh t l gia li ch thu v so vi chi
ph b ra.
Nu ch tiu NPV ch ni ln s giu c hn ln mt gi tr ti sn nhng n khng so snh
vi quy m ngun lc, th ch tiu BCR cho thy hiu qu ny.
BCR l t s so snh gia gi tr hin ti dng thu v gi tr hin ti dng chi (trong khi ,
NPV l so snh hiu s).
Cng thc:

BCR =
Giatrhien tai dong thu
Giatrhien tai dong chi

Theo v d d n photocopy i Sinh Vin, BCR l:
BCR =
10684
1,07
10000
=
3.3.2 Cc nhc im ca BCR
Qua cng thc NPV v BCR ta thy chng c mi quan h gii thch cho nhau. C th:
NPV > 0 BCR > 1;
Ngc li NPV < 0 BCR < 1.
Tuy nhin, khi so snh cc d n c tnh loi tr nhau, mt mnh ch tiu BCR i khi bp
mo kt qu nh gi.
V d:
Sut chit khu 20%
Thm nh d n u t

Prepared by NGUYEN TAN BINH 43 3/9/2012
Nm 0 1 NPV BCR
D n A (6,000) 9,000 1,500 1.25
D n B (10,000) 14,000 1,667 1.17
D n A c BCR ln hn (1.25>1.17), tuy nhin d n B li mang li ca ci rng ln hn
(1667>1500).
Mt nhc im khc na l, vic xc nh chi ph ca d n khng thng nht cng c
th lm sai lch ch tiu ny. C quan im cho rng chi ph so snh trong cng thc ny ch nn
tnh theo chi ph u t ban u (investment cost); trong khi , quan im khc th tnh trn ton
b chi ph (total cost).
3.4 K hon vn tnh trn ngn lu
Hiu t thut ng Payback Period (PP), l thi gian cn thit thu hi c vn u t.
Nhiu d n khan him hoc l thuc vo thi gian huy ng vn, ch tiu ny thng t ra hu
dng.
n gin, nhn dng ngn lu rng (NCF: net cash flows) trn bo co ngn lu ca d n
thy c nm hon vn.
K hon vn cng c th tnh trn dng ngn lu chit khu (DCF: discounted cash flows),
tc c tnh n gi tr thi gian ca tin t. Tuy nhin qua nhiu th nghim ta thy khng c chnh
lnh nhiu so vi cch tnh ch da trn dng ngn lu
54
.
3.5 Sut sinh li k ton
c dch t nhm t Accounting Rate of Return (ARR), l t l gia dng thu bnh qun
hng nm so vi tng dng chi (hoc bnh qun).
Cng thc:
ARR =
Ngan lu vao bnh quan
Tong ngan lu ra

Theo v d d n Ca hng Photocopy i Sinh Vin, ARR l:
ARR =
(5000 4500 3500 2000 1000)/5
32%
10000
+ + + +
=
Ch tiu ARR cng gip ta mt cch nhn v hiu qu d n, tuy nhin n cng c cc
nhc im tng t: khng tnh thi gi tin t v khng quan tm quy m cng nh vng i ca
d n.
Ch tiu ARR i khi cng c tnh n gin bng cch da trn li nhun bnh qun nh
ROI di y.

54
tng ca n l, tnh gi tr hin ti dng ngn lu ti thi im bt k. Ti nm no , gi tr bng 0 l nm
hon vn.

Thm nh d n u t

Prepared by NGUYEN TAN BINH 44 3/9/2012
3.6 Sut sinh li ca vn u t
c hiu t thut ng Return on Investment (ROI), l mt ch tiu n gin n v cng,
ch tnh trn li nhun v khng da vo dng ngn lu v gi tr thi gian ca tin t.
Cng thc:
ROI =
Li nhuan bnh quan hang nam
Von au t

Ngoi nhc im phi tin t v phi thi gian nh nu trn, vn u t trong ch tiu
ROI c tnh rt ty tin: c khi tnh trn tng vn u t, c khi tnh trn vn u t bnh qun
(c tr khu hao vn qua tng nm).
Lu rng, nu li nhun thng nht vi dng ngn lu, mc d him khi, th ROI s bng
vi ARR trn y.
V d: D n X c vn u t 100 triu, li nhun bnh qun hng nm l 20 triu th ROI s
l:
ROI =
20
20%
100
=
3.7 K hon vn tnh trn li nhun
L mt cch nhn khc v ROI, c vit ngc li vi ROI nh sau:
PP
NI
55
=
Von au t
Li nhuan bnh quan hang nam

Theo v d trn:
PP
NI
=
100
5 (nam)
20
=
3.8 Cch nhn khc v NPV v IRR
Thc ra mc ny nhm din gii thm, lm cho ch tiu vua NPV d hiu hn m thi.
Mc khc, trong s kt hp vi NPV cng lm r thm bn cht ca IRR.
Ch tiu gi tr hin ti rng NPV nh chng ta nghin cu v nhn thy l mt ch
tiu mnh m, ng tin cy, gii thch s giu c hn ln cho ch u t sau khi thc hin mt d
n kinh doanh. Nhng ch tiu ny, ngoi nhc im l vic xc nh sut chit khu ph hp, cn
mt khuyt im hm oan na l: kh hiu. Sau y l mt ngh v cch tip cn vi ch tiu
ny
56
.
V d: C dng ngn lu t mt d n nh sau
Nm 0 1 2 3

55
K hiu NI (Net Income: li rng) phn bit vi PP tnh trn dng ngn lu.
56
Ti vit thm mc ny, v ti tin rng nhn v tng lai thng lm cho ngi ta d hnh dung hn, n l kiu t duy
thun chiu. Cng ging nh hc ton vy, hc ton cng trc ri mi ton tr, nhn ri mi chia, ly tha ri mi
cn s, vi phn ri tch phn, gi tr tng lai c cp trc gi tr hin ti.
Thm nh d n u t

Prepared by NGUYEN TAN BINH 45 3/9/2012
NCF -500 300 400 200
Sut chit khu: 10%
Bng kt qu thm nh:
NPV = 254
IRR = 39%
- Vn 1: Gii thch ch tiu NPV v IRR bng hnh nh li sut.
Gi P = 500 l vn u t
Nu gi vo ngn hng gi nh vi li sut r = 39% nm, sau 3 nm ta c s tin:
F
C
= 500 (1 + 39%)
3
= 1330
Nu u t d n v to ra cc dng thu, gi tr ca dng thu ny sau 3 nm cng l: 1330
F
B
= 300 (1+39%)
2
+ 400 (1+39%)
1
+ 200 (1+39%)
0

F
B
= 576 + 554 + 200
F
B
= 1330
Nh vy, ta c th hiu IRR nh l mt sut sinh li ha vn, v u t cho d n hay gi
ngn hng u nh nhau. Nhng lu rng sut sinh li 39% ch c thng qua u t, khng th c
mt li sut tin gi cao nh vy c.
- Vn 2: Gii thch ch tiu NPV v IRR bng hnh nh gi tr tng lai.
By gi ta cng tnh F n nm th 3 tuy nhin ch vi li sut 10%, l sut sinh li mong
mun. Ta c:
F
B
= 300 (1+10%)
2
+ 400 (1+10%)
1
+ 200 (1+10%)
0

= 363 + 440 + 200 = 1003
Gi tr tng lai n nm th 3 ca vn u t P= 500 (cng vi r=10%) l:
F
C
= 500 (1+10%)
3
= 665,5
Nu ta gi chnh lch gi tr tng lai ca dng thu (F
B
) v gi tr tng lai ca dng chi
(F
C
) bng mt tn gi l NFV (Net future value: gi tr tng lai rng), ta c:
NFV = 1003 665,5 = 337, 5
T ta thy rng li ch trong tng lai s ln hn nu u t vo d n thay v gi ngn
hng (hay dnh cho cc hot ng khc trong hin ti) vi li sut 10%.
Nu a NFV = 337,5 v gi tr hin ti NPV (r = 10%) ta cng s c NPV = 254, thng
nht vi gi tr NPV bng kt qu thm nh trn y.

n 3
NFV 337,5
NPV= = =254
(1+r) (1+10%)

- Vn 3: Mt cch nhn khc v sut sinh li ni b IRR.
Thm nh d n u t

Prepared by NGUYEN TAN BINH 46 3/9/2012
Trong khi tnh IRR, ta xem nh l mt sut sinh li ca cc dng u t v ti u t ca
d n. Nhng li sut thc t s l g?
Theo tnh ton trn, gi tr tng lai ca cc dng thu (r=10%) l: 1003.
Bn hy t cu hi rng, gi tr vn u t P = 500 tr thnh F = 1003, li sut r cn c
l bao nhiu?
Ta c th vit:
500 (1+r)
3
= 1003 (1+r)
3
= 1003 500 = 2,006
Suy ra:
(1+r) =
3
2,006 = 1,26 r = 0,26 hay 26%
Ngi ta cn gi r = 26% l Sut sinh li ni b hiu chnh.
3.9 Bng tm tt kt qu tnh ton ca cc ch tiu
Kt qu cc ch tiu ca d n Ca hng Photocopy i Sinh Vin nh sau:

Sut chit khu 20%
Nm 0 1 2 3 4 5
NCF (10,000) 5,000 4,500 3,500 2,000 1,000
NPV 684 (n v tin)
IRR 24%
B/C 1.07 (ln)
PP 2 (nm)
ARR 32%
3.10 Bng tm tt u khuyt im ca cc ch tiu
Ch tiu u im Khuyt im

NPV
Gi tr
hin ti rng
Tnh gi tr tin t theo thi gian,
tnh n quy m d n, p ng yu
cu giu c hn ln, ti a ha
ngun ca ci. L ch tiu mnh m,
thuyt phc.
- Kh hiu
- Kh tm sut chit khu, tc rt kh
xc nh chi ph s dng vn.

IRR
Sut sinh li
ni b
- C tnh trn dng ngn lu, tc
thng tin ni b t d n.
- D tnh, d hiu (th hin l phn
trm)
- C lc khng tnh c do dng
ngn lu thay i bt thng
- D dn n kt lun sai lm khi so
snh cc d n c tnh loi tr nhau
- Khng tnh n quy m, thi im
d n
- C tnh n gi tr tin t theo thi - C nhiu cch xc nh chi ph,
Thm nh d n u t

Prepared by NGUYEN TAN BINH 47 3/9/2012
BCR (B/C)
T s Li ch
& Chi ph
gian
- H tr gii thch cho NPV
- Thy c hiu qu ng vn
dn n kt lun sai
- Khng xt quy m v vng i d
n

PP
CF

K hon vn tnh
trn dng ngn lu
- c s dng nhiu do d hiu, d
tnh ton
- Hu ch vi cc d n c ri ro
cao
- Khng quan tm n sut sinh li
- C th mu thun vi NPV khi so
snh d n loi tr nhau.
Thm nh d n u t

Prepared by NGUYEN TAN BINH 48 3/9/2012

ARR
Sut sinh li
k ton
- Tng i d hiu, d tnh ton
- C da vo dng ngn lu v tnh
trn ton b vng i d n
- Khng quan tm n quy m, tui
th d n
- C nhiu cch hiu khc nhau

ROI
Sut sinh li ca
vn u t
- D hiu v da trn li nhun ch
khng rc ri khi phi da trn dng
ngn lu
- D tnh ton v khng cn tnh gi
tr tin t theo thi gian

- Khng quan tm n quy m, tui
th d n
- Khng da vo dng ngn lu
- D c nhng quan im khc nhau
v xc nh vn u t
- D c quan im khc nhau v xc
nh li nhun (trc hay sau thu)

PP
NI

K hon vn tnh
trn li nhun
- D hiu
- D tnh ton
- c s dng nhiu do chu nh
hng ca nn kinh t k hoch.
- Khng quan tm n quy m, tui
th d n
- Khng da vo dng ngn lu v
chit khu
- Khng quan tm n sut sinh li
- D sai lm khi so snh la chn d
n loi tr nhau

HNG DN TRN EXCEL (cc hm NPV, IRR)
(i) Hm NPV
Bn vo: Excel>Fx>Financial>NPV
Dng d liu ca d n Ca hng Photocopy i Sinh Vin tnh NPV nh sau:


Thm nh d n u t

Prepared by NGUYEN TAN BINH 49 3/9/2012
So vi phin bn 98, Excel XP ny hi iu mt t. y bng Function chia trn v di,
Windows 98 th chia hai bn: bn tri l loi hm (category), bn phi l tn hm (name). C l
cng l cch m Microsoft lm mi sn phm
57
.
H no th cng bm OK c tip bng sau:


Khai bo th nht: Rate (sut chit khu) bng cch nhp chut vo sut chit khu (
C1).
Khai bo th hai: nh du khi dng ngn lu t nm 1 n nm 5. Nguyn tc l, cha
mt nm quay v.
Tip theo, a chut ln thanh cng thc, bm du +, nhp chut vo cha dng ngn
lu rng u tin (nm 0)/OK.


57
Ging nh bia hay nc sui ng chai vy thi, nay c ln mai i c cao. Thi trang cng vy, c ht di ri n
ngn.
Thm nh d n u t

Prepared by NGUYEN TAN BINH 50 3/9/2012

Kt qu NPV = 684 xut hin, nt cm ln gi l nt OK. Bm vo vng kt
qu ra chn trc , B4.
Nhiu bn ch rng Excel d qu, ti sao khng khai bo mt ln cho ht dng tin m phi
thm du cng + cho rc ri! Khng bit trong tng lai Microsoft c ci tin g khng nhng ti
ngh rng khng th. Bi v nu qut ht c dng tin, th khng c ch quay v. Nu bn qut c
dng tin t nm 0 th Excel cng tnh, nhng n s chit khu v nm -1 y!
Cc lu khc:
Khng phn bit dng ngn lu rng m hay dng, ch gi nguyn tc cha li mt
nm quay v. Gi nh dng ngn lu nm th 1: - 3000 th c ngha l, gi tr hin ti ca
dng chi ch l:
PV = -3000
1
1
-2500
(1 20%)
=
+

C mt dng ngn lu ca mt nm no bng 0 th vn phi nh (g) vo s 0. V
trng, Excel s cho rng dng ngn lu trc nm v sau nm cch nhau ch mt nm, t
Excel s tnh sai. Nguyn tc ny cng p dng i vi hm IRR.
(ii) Hm IRR
Bn vo: Excel>Fx>Financial>IRR
Vn dng d liu ca d n Ca hng Photocopy i Sinh Vin tnh IRR nh sau:


Thm nh d n u t

Prepared by NGUYEN TAN BINH 51 3/9/2012
Ngay c thao tc trn Excel cng gi cho ta mt ngh rng IRR rt d tnh ton, ch cn
qut ht dng tin rng (NCF) c mt trong bo co ngn lu d n. l nhng thng tin c t
d n, v ch cn da vo m khng cn thm bt c mt thng tin no khc t bn ngoi. Trong
khi tnh NPV li phi cn n mt sut chit khu.
IV. Lm pht v nh gi d n
Lm pht hiu n gin l s mt gi ca ng tin hay l s tng ln trong gi c hng ha lm
gim sc mua ca ng tin. Lm pht l hin tng bnh thng, n thng trc trong mi nn
kinh t pht trin, tng trng.
Ti sao cn thit phi tnh n vn lm pht trong cc d n u t? Mt d n thng
ko di nhiu nm, d tnh lm pht cho dng ngn lu l s bo m cho hot ng bnh thng
ca d n. Gi mt kilgam nguyn liu u vo, chi ph mt gi lao ng thi im 5 nm sau
chc chn s khc nhiu so vi hin nay.
4.1 Ch s lm pht
Gi nh lm pht (hay tc lm pht) c k hiu l g th ch s lm pht hng nm
c tnh nh sau:
Ch s lm pht nm 1: = (1+g)
0
(1+g) = (1+g)
1

Ch s lm pht nm 2: = (1+g)
1
(1+g) = (1+g)
2

Ch s lm pht nm 3: = (1+g)
2
(1+g) = (1+g)
3


Ch s lm pht nm n: = (1+g)
n-1
(1+g) = (1+g)
n

Thm nh d n u t

Prepared by NGUYEN TAN BINH 52 3/9/2012
V d:
Bng 12-1: Ch s lm pht v t gi hi oi
Tc lm pht trong nc 6%
Tc lm pht nc ngoi 4%
T gi hi oi hin ti 15,000
Nm 0 1 2 3
Ch s lm pht trong nc 1.00 1.06 1.12 1.19
Ch s lm pht nc ngoi 1.00 1.04 1.08 1.12
Ch s lm pht tng i 1.00 1.02 1.04 1.06
T gi hi oi k vng 15,000 15,288 15,582 15,882
Trong , ch s lm pht tng i l t l gia ch s lm pht trong nc v ch s lm
pht nc ngoi.
Ch s lm pht tng i =
Chsolam phat trong nc
Chsolam phat nc ngoai

Nu lm pht trong nc cao hn nc ngoi, ch s ny ln hn 1 (>1), t gi hi oi k
vng trong tng lai s cao hn.
Ngc li, nu lm pht trong nc thp hn nc ngoi, ch s ny s nh hn 1 (<1), t
gi hi oi k vng trong tng lai s ngy cng thp i. Xem v d di y.
Tc lm pht trong nc 6%
Tc lm pht nc ngoi 8%
T gi hi oi hin ti 15,000
Nm 0 1 2 3
Ch s lm pht trong nc 1.00 1.06 1.12 1.19
Ch s lm pht nc ngoi 1.00 1.08 1.17 1.26
Ch s lm pht tng i 1.00 0.98 0.96 0.95
T gi hi oi k vng 15,000 14,722 14,450 14,182
Ging nh bng tnh gi tr tin t theo thi gian hng dn trn y, bn ct (c nh
bng phm F4) tc lm pht v c th, bn copy cho ti trm nm sau.
Thm nh d n u t

Prepared by NGUYEN TAN BINH 53 3/9/2012

4.2 Lm pht v dng ngn lu
Dng ngn lu danh ngha l dng ngn lu gn vi lm pht, cha ng yu t lm
pht.
Cng thc tng qut:
Ngn lu danh ngha = Ngn lu thc Ch s lm pht
Hay:
Ngn lu thc =
Ngan lu danh ngha
Chsolam phat

Dng ngn lu thc l dng ngn lu cha tnh n (loi tr) yu t lm pht. Vic tnh
dng ngn lu thc t dng ngn lu danh ngha thng qua ch s lm pht nh trn cn gi l kh
lm pht
58
.
V d 12.20:
Nu lm pht (trong nc) l 6% nm, dng ngn lu danh ngha ca d n i Sinh Vin
trong v d trn y s nh sau:
Nm 0 1 2 3 4 5
NCF thc (10,000) 5,000 4,500 3,500 2,000 1,000
Ch s lm pht 1.000 1.060 1.124 1.191 1.262 1.338
NCF danh ngha (10,000) 5,300 5,056 4,169 2,525 1,338
4.3 Lm pht v sut chit khu
Sut chit khu (hay li sut) danh ngha l sut chit khu c tnh n lm pht.
t cc k hiu:
r
N
: sut chit khu danh ngha (nominal rate)

58
Deflation: kh lm pht (Deflation cn c ngha l gim pht).
Thm nh d n u t

Prepared by NGUYEN TAN BINH 54 3/9/2012
r
R
: sut chit khu thc (real rate)
g : tc lm pht
Cng thc:
r
N
= r
R
+ g + r
R
g
Hay: r
R
= r
N
- g (1+r
R
)
Hay: g =
N R
R
r r
1 r

+

V d: Nu r
R
= 20% v g = 6%, ta c:
r
N
= 20% + 6% + 1,2% = 27,2%
4.4 Lm pht v NPV
Nhiu ngi ngh rng gn lm pht vo dng ngn lu s lm thay i NPV. ng nh
vy, lm pht lm tng gi tr dng ngn lu do lm tng NPV nu gi cng mt sut chit
khu. Tuy nhin, NPV s nh nhau nu chit khu dng ngn lu danh ngha vi sut chit khu
danh ngha.
NPV danh ngha c tnh trn dng ngn lu danh ngha vi sut chit khu danh ngha.
NPV thc c tnh trn dng ngn lu thc vi sut chit khu thc.
V d 12.21:
Dng sut chit khu danh ngha r
N
= 27,2% chit khu dng ngn lu danh ngha ca d
n i Sinh Vin trn y, ta s c NPV danh ngha nh sau:
r
N

27.2%

Nm 0 1 2 3 4 5
NCF thc (10,000) 5,000 4,500 3,500 2,000 1,000
Ch s lm pht 1.000 1.060 1.124 1.191 1.262 1.338
NCF danh ngha (10,000) 5,300 5,056 4,169 2,525 1,338
NPV danh ngha 684


i chiu li vi NPV thc tnh v d trn:
r
R

20%

Nm 0 1 2 3 4 5
NCF thc (10,000) 5,000 4,500 3,500 2,000 1,000
Thm nh d n u t

Prepared by NGUYEN TAN BINH 55 3/9/2012
NPV thc 684

S 12-1: Quan h gia cc gi tr danh ngha v thc




















V. Sut chit khu
tng ca sut chit khu n gin l chi ph c hi ca ng tin. Mt ng s nhn mt nm
sau ch bng 0,909 ng ngy hm nay, ch bi v 0,909 ng c c hi tr thnh 1 ng vo mt
nm sau, nu sut sinh li d kin l 10% nm.
0,909 (1+10%) = 1
V nh vy:
0,909 =
1
1 10% +

Nh cp u chng ny, d n ch n gin l vic xem xt vic b ra 1 ng ngy
hm nay k vng thu v trong tng lai. Ni cch khc, nhng dng thu ca d n trong tng
lai cn phi c tnh v gi tr hin ti. 0,909 l gi tr hin ti ca 1 ng s thu c mt nm
sau. Cha k n yu t thi gian, nu c hi sinh li ca ng tin khng phi l 10% m l 20%
chng hn th gi tr hin ti s nh i.
0,833 =
1
1 20% +

Ngc li, nu c hi sinh li ca ng tin l 5% th gi tr hin ti by gi s l:
Ngn lu
thc
S
u

t

c
h
i

t

k
h

u

t
h

c

NPV danh ngha
= NPV thc
Ngn lu
danh ngha
S
u

t

c
h
i

t

k
h

u

d
a
n
h

n
g
h

a

Ch s lm pht
Ch s lm pht
Thm nh d n u t

Prepared by NGUYEN TAN BINH 56 3/9/2012
0,952 =
1
1 5% +

Nhng nu bn cho rng ng tin ca mnh khng c c hi sinh li no c, tc sut sinh
li bng 0, th qu tht gi tr ca 1 ng s nh nhau vo hai thi im:
1 =
1
1 0% +

Vi tho lun nh nh vy cng gip bn thy c vai tr ca sut chit khu quan trng
nh th no trong qu trnh thm nh cc d n u t.
5.1 Chi ph s dng vn bnh qun
Vn ca mt cng ty hay ca mt d n c huy ng t hai ngun: vn ch s hu v
vn i vay. Mi ngun vn c mt sut sinh li i hi khc nhau. i vi nh cho vay, yu cu l
li sut, i vi vn ch s hu thng c sut sinh li i hi cao hn do ri ro cao hn. Trong
trnh t thanh khon, vn ch s hu nm v tr sau cng, khon n vay c u tin nhn trc.
Sut chit khu ca mt d n phi c tnh bnh qun ca chi ph s dng cc loi vn, c
trng s l cc t l ca tng ngun vn.
Chi ph s dng vn bnh qun gia quyn (WACC: Weighted Average Cost of Capital)
c tm tt qua cng thc tng qut nh sau:
WACC = %D r
D
+ %E r
E

Trong ,
%D : t l n vay
%E : t l vn ch s hu
r
D
: li sut tin vay
r
E
: sut sinh li i hi ca vn ch s hu
(lu l: %D + %E = 100% hay N phi tr + Vn ch s hu = Ti sn)
Nu c cu vn i vay t nhiu ngun khc nhau c li sut khc nhau v vn ch s hu
cng c huy ng t nhiu ngun khc nhau c sut sinh li i hi khc nhau (c phiu u i,
c phiu thng), cng thc trn c th khai trin nh sau:
WACC = %D
1
r
D1
+ %D
2
r
D2
+ %E
1
r
E1
+ %E
2
r
E2

Trng hp d n c chu thu thu nhp, chi ph li vay c hch ton vo chi ph trc
khi tnh thu, v vy cng thc tng qut WACC c vit li nh sau:
WACC = %D r
D
(1- t%) + %E r
E

Trong , t% l thu sut
V d: Mt d n c tng vn u t l 1000, trong huy ng t n vay l: 400 (n v
tin) vi li sut 8% nm. Nu sut sinh li i hi ca vn ch s hu l 20% v thu sut l 30%
th sut chit khu ca d n s l:
WACC = 40% 8% (1 - 30%) + 60% 20%
Thm nh d n u t

Prepared by NGUYEN TAN BINH 57 3/9/2012
= 2,2% + 12%
= 14,2%
5.2 Chi ph s dng vn ch s hu
Trong cng thc WACC trn y, cc yu t %D (t l n vay), %E (t l vn ch s hu),
r
D
(li sut tin vay) c th xc nh c. Nhng vn cn li l r
E
(sut sinh li ca vn ch s
hu) s c xc nh nh th no?
Vic xc nh r
E
thng gy ra nhiu tranh ci v c nhng nghin cu, nhng m hnh
c xy dng. n nay, m hnh nh gi ti sn vn - CAPM (capital assets pricing model) xut
hin t nhng nm 1960, vn c p dng kh rng ri v ph bin nhng nc c nn kinh t
th trng pht trin.
M hnh CAPM c th hin nh phng trnh sau:
r
E
= r
F
+ b (r
M
- r
F
)
Trong :
r
E
: sut sinh li ca c phiu (vn ch s hu), l t l gia thu nhp ca c phiu so vi gi
th trng ca c phiu. Trong , thu nhp ca c phiu c hiu bao gm: c tc
c chia cng (+) vi mc tng (gim) gi c phiu trn th trng.
r
F
: li sut ca u t khng ri ro (ngi ta thng s dng li sut tri phiu trung hn ca
chnh ph),
r
M
: li sut bnh qun th trng ( M, ngi ta dng sut sinh li S&P 500, c bnh qun
gn 3000 cng ty M c c phiu giao dch rng ri trn th trng chng khon),
b (b ta): dao ng, tc nhy cm, cng hiu l ri ro ca sut sinh li ca mt cng ty
(hay ngnh) no so vi li sut bnh qun th trng, c thng k hi qui s liu ca 5
nm (60 thng)
59
.
Qua phng trnh CAPM trn ta thy, vi r
F
khng i, mt s bin ng trong li sut th
trng r
M
s lm thay i r
E
. S thay i nhanh, chm hay cng chiu, tri chiu gi y s l thuc
vo b.
Mi cng ty (hay mi ngnh ngh) c mt h s b khc nhau, th hin s dao ng ca r
E

trc bin ng ca th trng.
Nh vy:
b > 1: khi li sut th trng tng (gim) th sut sinh li vn ch s hu tng (gim) nhanh hn,
b < 1: khi li sut th trng tng (gim) th sut sinh li vn ch s hu tng (gim) chm hn,
b = 1: khi li sut th trng tng (gim) th sut sinh li vn ch s hu tng (gim) t l nh
nhau,
b < 0: khi li sut th trng tng (gim) th ngc li, sut sinh li vn ch s hu s gim
(tng)
60
.

59
C th hiu v tnh b nh l dc (slope) ca hai bin: r
E
v r
M
, nghin cu chng 3: Phng php k thut
s dng trong phn tch.
60
V d sut sinh li ca c phiu cc cng ty sn xut v kh, phng tin chin tranh.
Thm nh d n u t

Prepared by NGUYEN TAN BINH 58 3/9/2012
b = 0: li sut th trng khng nh hng g n sut sinh li vn ch s hu. Ni cch khc,
r
E
bng ng vi li sut khng ri ro r
F
.
Nhng vn ny chng ta s cn tip tc tho lun trong cc dp khc, nhng quyn sch
chuyn bit khc. Tuy nhin, Vit Nam hin nay rt kh hoc khng th p dng m hnh CAPM
ny, n gin v chng ta khng c d liu. Ni cch khc, chng ta vn cha c mt th trng ti
chnh hot ng tri chy, cha ni n l hon ho.
Xem ph lc cui chng v h s bta ca mt s ngnh ngh v mt s cng ty ni
ting ca M.
V tit kim thi gian cng giy mc cha c ch cho vic thy bi xem voi, chng ta
li phi quay v vi cu hi trc mt: lm sao xc nh c r
E
khi khng c gi th trng? Mt
s tho lun v vn sut sinh li ca vn ch s hu c cp mc 3.1.2 trn y.
VI. Cc quan im nh gi d n
Trong phm vi ch quyn sch, cc quan im nn kinh t hay quan im chnh ph, quan im
phc li x hi hay phn phi, khng c c hi cp. Mc ny ch tho lun vic nh gi d n
trn quan im ti chnh, tc quan im ca cc nh u t, c th gm: ch u t v nh cho
vay.
6.1 Quan im nh cho vay
Nh cho vay thm nh d n da trn dng ngn lu ca tng vn u t, tc xem xt ti
tng dng ngn lu chi cho d n (k c phn ng thu) v tng dng ngn lu thu v (k c phn
tr cp, tr gi). Quan im nh cho vay cn c gi l quan im tng u t. Theo , cc
ngn hng cho vay s xc nh c tnh kh thi v mt ti chnh ca d n, nhu cu cn vay vn
cng nh kh nng tr n gc v li vay ca d n. Mc ch xem xt d n l nhm nh gi s an
ton ca s vn cho vay.
Nhng ti sao nh cho vay li ch cn quan tm n dng ngn lu ca tng u t? n
gin v nh cho vay c u tin nhn trc dng thu ca d n m khng c ngha v phi chia
s vi ch s hu.
Ngay c khi d n gp ri ro th trng
61
, tng dng thu ca d n ch va bng vi s tin
cn tr (n gc v li vay), nh cho vay vn thu phn mnh, mi ri ro dn ht ln vai ch s
hu.
Sut chit khu s dng tnh NPV theo quan im nh cho vay l chi ph s dng vn
bnh qun (WACC), v tng dng ngn lu bao gm hai ngun vn: n vay v vn ch s hu.
6.2 Quan im ch u t
Quan im ch u t, cn gi l quan im ch s hu hay quan im c ng, mc ch
nhm xem xt gi tr thu nhp rng cn li ca d n so vi nhng g h c c trong trng hp
khng thc hin d n. Khc vi quan im nh cho vay, ch s hu khi tnh ton dng ngn lu
phi cng vn vay ngn hng vo dng ngn lu vo v tr khon tr li vay v n gc dng
ngn lu ra.

61
Business risk (market risk)
Thm nh d n u t

Prepared by NGUYEN TAN BINH 59 3/9/2012
Ni cch khc, ch u t (ch s hu) quan tm n dng ngn lu rng cn li cho mnh,
sau khi thanh ton n vay.
Sut chit khu s dng tnh NPV theo quan im ch s hu l chi ph s dng vn
(sut sinh li i hi) ca ch s hu, v ch tnh trn dng ngn lu ca ch s hu. Lu l, dng
ngn lu ca ch s hu bng (=) dng ngn lu tng u t tr (-) dng ngn lu vay v tr n.
V d 12.22: C s liu ca mt d n n gin nh sau:
- Vng i d n: 2 nm
- Tng vn u t (u nm 1, tc cui nm 0): 1000 (n v tin); trong , vn i vay: 400, li
sut 8%, tr u (vn v li) trong 2 nm.
- Tng dng ngn lu rng ca d n (cha tnh ngn lu vay v tr n): nm th 1: 800, nm th
2: 600 (n v tin).
- Sut sinh li i hi ca vn ch s hu: 20%; thu sut bng khng.
Hy thm nh d n theo hai quan im: nh cho vay v ch u t.
Trc ht, ta tnh dng ngn lu tr n hng nm ( hng dn phn k thut chit khu
dng tin trn y).
Nm 0 1 2
N u k 400 208
Li pht sinh 32 17
Tr n (u): 224 224
- N gc 192 208
- Li vay 32 17
N cui k 400 208 0

WACC = 40% 8% + 60% 20%
= 3,2% + 12%
= 15,2%
(i) Bo co ngn lu theo quan im tng u t (nh cho vay)
Nm 0 1 2
Tng ngn lu rng -1000 800 600
NPV vi WACC=15.2% 147
IRR 27%
D n c tng dng chi u t nm 0 l: 1000, tng dng thu (rng) nm 1 l: 800 v nm 2
l: 600. l ngn lu ca tng u t, khng quan tm n c cu ngun vn.

Thm nh d n u t

Prepared by NGUYEN TAN BINH 60 3/9/2012


(ii) Bo co ngn lu theo quan im ch u t (ch s hu)
Nm 0 1 2
Tng ngn lu rng -1000 800 600
Ngn lu vay v tr n 400 -224 -224
Ngn lu ca ch s hu -600 576 376
NPV vi r
E
=20% 141
IRR 41%
Vn ch s hu ch chi u t nm 0 l: 600, dng thu (rng) ca ch s hu trong nm 1
l: 576 v nm 2 l: 376. l ngn lu ca ch s hu, ch quan tm n dng ngn lu cn li
cho mnh, sau khi tr (-) dng chi tr n.
Mt lu c bit l, gi tr NPV chnh lch khng nhiu gia hai quan im nhng i
vi IRR th chnh lch kh ln (41%>>27%). Nu gi nh d n s dng 100% vn ch s hu m
khng huy ng n vay, dng ngn lu ch s hu bng vi tng ngn lu rng th IRR theo quan
im ch s hu cng bng vi IRR theo quan im tng u t, tc ch bng 27%. Nh vy, tc
ng by sut sinh li ca vn ch s hu li chnh l yu t n vay (!) Xem khi nim n by
ti chnh chng 14.
VII. Phn tch ri ro d n
C th ni rng bt c d n no, khng t th nhiu cng u c ri ro. Cc nh u t lun hiu r
v chp nhn iu ny. Tuy nhin h s quyt nh khng lm, khng phi v s, m cho n chng
no h cha bit c kh nng ri ro l bao nhiu.
Phn tch ri ro l c lng n ch khng phi khc phc n. Ngi ta ni gim
thiu ri ro ch khng ai ni phng trnh ri ro. Tuy nhin, chng ta khng bn v vn ny. V
gim thiu hay phng trnh ri ro ng ngha vi lm nh hay khng lm
62
.
Phn tch ri ro y nhm tr li cu hi, liu vi mc ri ro nh vy, phn thng b
p cho n c l tha ng? Mc khc, thi ca mi ngi ng trc ri ro cng khc nhau.
Mt ng tng gim c doanh nghip nh nc 59 tui c vi cn bit th ni ngoi thnh, con ci
hc nc ngoi, ti khon rng rnh nm by trm ngn -la s t chi mt d n c mc ri
ro 15% (gi nh lng ha c nh vy), v c th khng c g, mt th mt ht cng
tch ly hng chc nm tri. Trong khi , mc ri ro ny l qu tuyt vi mt gim c tr, nhit
tnh, n hc ng hong tui mi trn 29. Bn tip tc hnh dung thi ri ro tng t cng s
khc nhau ty thuc vo gii tnh, tn gio, vng min, dn tc v nhng th rt kh nh lng
khc na.
C th phn bit thnh hai phng php phn tch ri ro: phn tch tt nh v phn tch bt
nh.

62
iu ny cng ng trong ngha l ca cuc i: lm ln th khuyt im nhiu, ln thuyn th ln sng, vit nhiu
th sai st nhiu. Tt nhin sai st th cn trnh nhng khng nhn ra mnh sai st th mi l iu khng khip.
Thm nh d n u t

Prepared by NGUYEN TAN BINH 61 3/9/2012
- Phn tch tt nh (deterministic) l ch quan cho trc mt gi tr xc nh (v d mt
gi bn c th), hi kt qu (v d NPV) s l bao nhiu.
- Phn tch bt nh, cn gi l phn tch xc sut (probabilistic) hay m phng
(simulation), nhng gi tr ca nhn t ri ro s c xut hin mt cch bt nh, ngu nhin
khng nh trc. V tt nhin, kt qu cng l nhng gi tr mang tnh ngu nhin. Ging nh tr
chi quay s cc sng bc vy. Phng php ny v th cn c tn gi l m phng Monte-
Carlo
63
.
Sau nhiu ln (trm, ngn ln) th, ngi ta thy c cc quy lut (phn phi xc sut).
Theo , c bao nhiu phn trm kt qu no ri vo khong no. T nh, xc sut NPV<0 l bao
nhiu, chng hn.
7.1 Phn tch tt nh
Gm: phn tch nhy v phn tch tnh hung.
7.1.1 Phn tch nhy
7.1.1.1 nhy mt chiu
Cho mt bin (yu t) c tin on l rt ri ro thay i, hi bin kt qu s thay i nh
th no.
V d n gin:
Phn tch bin ri ro khi lng nh hng n bin kt qu doanh thu.
Khi lng 1,000
Gi bn 100
Doanh thu 100,000

800 900 1,000 1,100 1,200
100,000 80,000 90,000 100,000 110,000 120,000
7.1.1.2 nhy hai chiu
Cho hai bin (yu t) c tin on l rt ri ro cng thay i, hi bin kt qu s thay i
nh th no.
V d n gin:
Phn tch hai bin ri ro khi lng v gi c nh hng n bin kt qu doanh thu.
Khi lng 1,000
Gi bn 100
Doanh thu 100,000

63
Monte-Carlo l mt a danh x (cng quc) Monaco, thuc Php. Ging nh Macao, mi y tr v Trung Quc,
hay Las Vegas ca M vy, l ni ni ting th gii vi cc sng bc v trung tm gii tr bt tn.
Thm nh d n u t

Prepared by NGUYEN TAN BINH 62 3/9/2012

100,000 800 900 1,000 1,100 1,200
80 64,000 72,000 80,000 88,000 96,000
90 72,000 81,000 90,000 99,000 108,000
100 80,000 90,000 100,000 110,000 120,000
110 88,000 99,000 110,000 121,000 132,000
120 96,000 108,000 120,000 132,000 144,000
Thao tc phn tch nhy trn Excel:
Cho khi lng thay i trn hng (row), gi bn thay i trn ct (column); t (lin kt
cng thc bi du =) doanh thu vo gc tri bn trn ca bng; nh du khi (bi en) bng;
ln Data, chn Table, nh sau:

Bm vo thanh Table ta c bng Table; khai bo hng (Row) v ct (Column) nh sau:

Bm nt OK hon tt:
Thm nh d n u t

Prepared by NGUYEN TAN BINH 63 3/9/2012


7.1.2 Phn tch tnh hung
Vo Excel, thit k bi ton hoc d n (tt c u c lin kt cng thc). Bm Tools (cc
cng c) >> chn Scenarios ta c bng sau:

Bm nt Add (a vo) trn bng Scenario Manager (thit k kch bn) c bng Add
Scenario (a kch bn vo) nh sau:
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t tn kch bn (tnh hung); gi phm Ctrl v nhp chut
64
ln lt vo cc chn l
cc bin c xem l ri ro, trong v d ny l cc bin: khi lng, gi bn n v, chi ph n v.
Bm nt OK
65
c bng Scenario values (cc gi tr kch bn) nh sau:


Sau khi nh my cc gi tr (ty bn nh ngha th no l tt, trong v d ny: khi lng:
1200, gi bn n v: 120 v chi ph n v: 60) vo bng, bm nt Add thit k kch bn tip
theo,


64
Tt nhin ni chut trn nh vy th hiu l "chut tri".
65
Ti thng a vi cc sinh vin rng, c thy nt no "cm" ln l bm ti, t s c. cnh tranh, cc cng
ty phn mm lun ci tin cc sn phm ca mnh theo hng ngy cng tin li cho ngi s dng. Bit u mt
ngy no Bill Gates li cho ra mt chng trnh Excel bng ting Vit (!). Lc y, bn s khng thy Tools m l
Cc Cng C; khng phi l Help m l Gip . Lc y l gip thc s, cn by gi khi bm nt Help bn thy
cng rc ri hn l khi cha "gip" (!). Hy tin tng v hy bit ch i. Ch c iu trong lc ch i phi chu
kh c bng ting Ty vy.
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t tn kch bn mi (theo v d trn l kch bn trung bnh), bm nt OK ri a gi tr vo
bng (ty bn nh ngha th no l trung bnh, trong v d ny: khi lng: 1000, gi bn n v:
100 v chi ph n v: 80), nh sau:



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Prepared by NGUYEN TAN BINH 67 3/9/2012
Li tip tc bm nt Add thit k kch bn tip theo, v c th lm ti. Cui cng
(khng mun thm kch bn na) th bm nt OK, ta s thy li bng u tin nhng gi y c
cc tn ca cc kch bn c thit k nh sau:




Bn c thy nt Show (ch ra) n "cm" ln khng? C a vt xanh (nhp chut) vo kch
bn no bn mun ri bm nt Show, kt qu kch bn s hin ra. Trong bng trn y ang ch ra
kch bn Tt, vi khi lng 1200, gi bn 120, chi ph n v 60 v li nhun 72,000.
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Prepared by NGUYEN TAN BINH 68 3/9/2012
By gi bn a vt xanh xung kch bn xu chng hn ri bm nt Show, kt qu s nh
sau:

Trong kch bn xu, trc ta nh ngha vi cc thng s: khi lng 800, gi bn 80,
chi ph n v 110 v kt qu ch ra l 24,000.
Chng trnh Scenario cng cung cp mt bng tm tt cc kch bn. c bng tm tt,
dng lnh Summary \ chn Scenerio Summary c bng tm tt kt qu cc kch bn nh sau:

Ghi ch (di bng): ct Gi tr hin hnh (gi tr gc) i din cho cc gi tr ca nhng
thay i khi bo co tm tt kch bn c thit lp. Cc thay i ca mi kch bn c lm
ni bt trong nn mu xm.
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Prepared by NGUYEN TAN BINH 69 3/9/2012
Bn thy c d dng khng? Chc may mn!
7.2 Phn tch bt nh
Khc vi phn tch tt nh, nhng gi tr hay nhng tnh hung c xc nh trc tr
li cu hi "nu, th", trong phn tch m phng, cn gi l phn tch xc sut, mi chuyn s
hon ton l ngu nhin.
Trong khun kh quyn sch ny, cc kin thc cn bn v thng k ton khng c
cp, bn ch vic xc nh v khai bo cc bin ri ro ca d n (v d: gi bn, khi lng, lm
pht) v cc bin kt qu (v d: NPV v IRR), chng trnh Crystalball s gip bn. y l mt
phn mm c uy tn nht phn tch ri ro hin nay.
Bn c th ln trang web theo a ch di y c phn mm ny. Thm ch khi bn ng
k tr thnh thnh vin ca hi, hng thng hoc ngn hn bn s nhn c nhng thng tin,
nhng cp nht, gii thiu sch mi xut bn hay c chia s kinh nghim g y v phn tch m
phng. Cng c khi nhn thng bo mi tham d mt kha hun luyn ngn hn (2 ngy) v phn
tch ri ro, vi hc ph gn c ngn bng Anh y (!)
66
.
From: "Decisioneering Newsletter" <newsletter@crystalball.com>
To: "Nguyen Tan Binh" <tanbinh@hcm.vnn.vn>
Subject: Tomorrow's Forecast Newsletter - Issue #91
Date: Friday, September 20, 2002 12:57 PM
www.crystalball.com

To Nguyen Tan Binh:
You are now receiving the HTML version of our newsletter. If you do not see the top banner or any images or large and colored fonts,
then your e-mail program is not set to receive a full HTML newsletter. We are still publishing a plain text version, and if you would like
to switch to that format, click on this link
(http://www.crystalball.com/newsletter_list.html)
You can also view this HTML newsletter online at
http://www.crystalball.com/newsletters/newsletter91.html
Sau khi gi t Crystalball thnh cng, qu cu pha l xut hin thong qua trn mn
hnh Excel v trn thanh cng c xut hin thm Cell, Run v CBTools (phin bn Crystalball 97
khng c CBTools).

66
Cch khc, nu TP. HCM, bn c th n ng Tn Tht Tng v mang theo vi ngn ng (VND) ung c
ph. Khng bit t bao gi, nhng ngi bn tr gii giang v tt bng li t tp v con ng c nhng hng me
y th mng ny, h sn sng tip n nng hu v gip bn mt cch tn tnh. Bn ch cn h ng khu lnh:
Crystal Ball. Chc bn toi nguyn.
Thm nh d n u t

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V d: Phn tch m phng ri ro ca d n Ca hng photocopy i Sinh Vin, nh sau:
Bin ri ro (d kin c nhiu bin ng trong thc t) c xc nh trong v d ny l: vn
u t nm 0 v dng ngn lu rng nm 1. Bin kt qu (bin d bo) l NPV.
- Bc 1: Trc tin, khai bo bin ri ro (bin gi thit) bng cch t chut vo
cha bin ri ro, theo v d l B3. Ln Cell >> chn Define Assumption (xc nh bin ri ro).

Bm thanh Define Assumption, ta c bng sau:
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Bng ny c nhiu phn phi xc sut ta chn. V d ta chn phn phi bnh thng
(tc phn phi chun - normal distribution) >> OK, ta c bng tip theo:


Bng ny cho ta gi tr trung bnh (Mean) v mc nh lch chun (Std Dev: Standard
Deviation) l 10% so vi gi tr trung bnh. Tt nhin ta c th thay i theo mun.
Bm OK kt thc khai bo. Tng t, tip tc khai bo cho cc bin ri ro tip theo
(nhiu bin cng c).
Vi phin bn Crystalball 2000, sau khi khai bo, cha bin ri ro s t ng t nn mu
xanh l cy.
Thm nh d n u t

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- Bc 2: Tip theo, khai bo bin kt qu (bin d bo) bng cch t chut vo
cha bin d bo, theo v d l B4. Ln Cell >> chn Define Forecast (xc nh bin d bo),
nh sau:

Bm thanh Define Forecast, ta c bng sau:

t tn bin, n v tnh (nu cn) >> bm OK hon tt khai bo. C th chn nhiu bin
d bo, v d chn thm bin d bo l IRR chng hn.
Vi phin bn Crystalball 2000, sau khi khai bo, cha bin d bo s t ng t nn mu
xanh dng.
- Bc 3: Ln Run >> chn Run Preferences, nh s ln chy m phng, v d ny l
1000 ln. tin cy mc nh l 95% (tt nhin bn c th chn mc tin cy khc: cao hoc thp
hn).
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Bm OK. Ln li Run >> bm Run. Chng trnh Crystalball bt u chy m phng.
Mi ln m phng, mt gi tr ca bin ri ro s xut hin mt cch ngu nhin, v kt qu NPV s
c tnh li v cho ra mt gi tr. Chng trnh thc hin 1000 ln nh vy (mt vi pht hoc lu
hn ty vo tc my tnh ca bn v ty vo sc nng ca bi ton hay d n).
Sau khi chy m phng xong, ta c bng sau:


y l bng bo co u tin do chng trnh Crystalball cung cp sau khi thc hin 1000
ln m phng (1000 trials). Lm g vi bng ny y?
Nt c
hnh tam
gic
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hng di cng bn s thy khong bin thin t tr v cc (-Infinity) n cng v cc
(+Infinity), c th gi tr NPV thp nht l: - 2089 (n v tin) v cao nht l: 3383 (xem ch hai
tam gic nh hai u trc honh). Tt nhin xc sut NPV ri vo khong ny chc chn phi
l 100% (xem Certainly = 100%). Ging nh bn on tui c bn gi mi quen vy. Nu bn
on khong t 15 n 51 th chc chn 100% s trng, nhng bn on khong 26, 27 g th
xc sut trng s thp hn (nu khng c thng tin no thm!). Nhng kiu on tui chc trng
100%, tc tin cy cao nh trn th chng cn ngha g na c, thm ch mt bn y!
- Bc 4: Hi Crystalball tr li.
V d hi: Xc sut d n c NPV <0 l bao nhiu? tr li, bn ch cn di chuyn tam
gic bn phi v bn tri cho n khi cn phi bng 0. Bn s c thy xc sut ny l 25.42%.
di chuyn, bn bm v gi chut vo nt tam gic ri ko n ni bn mun.


V d hi: Xc sut d n c NPV >0 l bao nhiu? tr li, bn ch cn di chuyn tam
gic bn tri v bn phi cho n khi cn tri bng 0. Bn s c thy xc sut ny l 74.58%, nh
bng di y.

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V d hi: Xc sut d n c NPV t gi tr trong khong t 505 n 2319 l bao nhiu?
tr li, bn ch cn di chuyn tam gic bn tri v bn phi cho n khi cn tri bng 505; v di
chuyn tam gic bn phi v bn tri cho n khi cn phi bng 2319. Bn s c thy xc sut ny
l 50%, nh bng di y.


Tng t, bn c tip tc hi v c di chuyn tam gic n ni cn thit.
Thm nh d n u t

Prepared by NGUYEN TAN BINH 76 3/9/2012
Nhng khng phi ch c th, Crystalball cn cung cp cho bn nhng bo co, nhng tm
tt cc thng s m t thng k, nhng th a dng theo mun. Bn hy c vo ca hng
mc sc m chn.


Hay mc tng quan (Correlation) gia cc bin ri ro i vi bin kt qu.






PH LC: H S BETA (b) CA MT S CNG TY V NGNH KINH DOANH M

Thm nh d n u t

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H S BETA (b) NGNH H S BETA (b) CNG TY
NGNH
*
b CNG TY b
Khch sn v dch v (9) 1.55 Cng ty my tnh Apple 1.52
Hng khng (8) 1.48 Cng ty vin thng McCaw 1.50
My tnh (10) 1.48 Hng khng Alaska 1.44
Dch v tit kim, cho vay (13) 1.45 Hewlett Packard 1.34
Dng c y t (53) 1.42 Timberland 1.30
Thit b in (43) 1.40 Dch v y t Columbia-HCA 1.28
May mc (25) 1.37 Microsoft 1.24
Ca hng bn l (74) 1.23 Time Warner 1.19
Thit b vin thng (17) 1.27 Ngn hng BankAmerica 1.19
Ngn hng (99) 1.12 General Motor 1.03
Chm sc sc khe - y t (64) 1.02 Boeing 0.96
Thc phm (44) 0.86 AT & T 0.88
My nng c (4) 0.83 Cng ty in lc Duke 0.44
Du kh, m phm (31) 0.72 Cng ty in lc Allegheny 0.36
Vng bc qu (6) 0.54 Cng ty cng ch San Diego 0.32
(*) S trong ngoc l s lng cc cng ty trong ngnh.
Ngun: Investment Data Book, thng 7/1994; Nh xut bn: Vestek Systems-San Francisco.

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