You are on page 1of 32

1.

Hng dn s dng Crystal Ball

1. Tng quan v m phng v Crystal Ball 1.1. Gii thiu Crystal Ball l mt chng trnh phn tch ri ro v d bo vi giao din ngi dng rt thn thin v d s dng. Crystal Ball d dng cc th trong phn tch v minh ha cc bo co nhm gip loi tr cc yu t bt nh khi ra quyt nh. Thng qua sc mnh m phng, Crystal Ball tr thnh cng c hiu qu trong tay ca nhng ngi ra quyt nh. Crystal Ball c th gip bn tr li cc cu hi nh Liu chng ta c thiu ht ngn sch nu chng ta xy dng cng trnh ny? hay Kh nng ca d n ny kt thc ng thi hn l bao nhiu? hoc Kh nng chng ta t c mc li nhun ny l bao nhiu?. Vi cng c Crystal Ball, bn s tr thnh ngi ra quyt nh chnh xc, hiu qu v t tin hn. Crystal Ball rt d hc v s dng, bt u bn ch cn to mt bng tnh mi v lp m hnh bi ton trn , sau thc hin mt s khai bo cc thng s cho chng trnh v bt u m phng. K thut m phng ny gi l m phng Monte Carlo, Crystal Ball s d bo ton b dy kt qu c th ca mt tnh hung cho trc v ng thi cung cp thm cc thng tin v mc tin cy ca d bo , do ta c th d on c kh nng xut hin ca mt s kin no . 1.2. Ci t Crystal Ball 11 Oracle Crystal Ball 11 c pht trin trn nn tng Microsoft .NET Framework. Do vy ci t chng trnh, my tnh phi p ng cc yu cu sau: Microsoft Windows 2000 Professional vi Service Pack 3, Windows XP Home Edition vi Service Pack 2, Windows XP vi Service Pack 2 hoc 3, Windows Vista, Windows 7. Microsoft Excel 2000, 2002 (XP), 2003, 2007 hoc 2010 Microsoft Internet Explorer 6.0 hoc mi hn Microsoft .NET Framework 2.0 (hoc 3.0, 3.5) My tnh dng b x l t 800 MHz tr ln Ti thiu 512 MB b nh Dung lng a cng cn trng dng cho .NET Framework (280 MB cho bn 32-bit v 610 MB cho bn 64-bit) v thm 80 MB cho chng trnh Crystal Ball 11. phn gii mn hnh ti thiu l 1024x768 Adobe Acrobat Reader 6.0 hoc mi hn c cc hng dn ca chng trnh a ch ti chng trnh Crystal Ball dng th v DotNet Framework: Oracle Crystal Ball: http://www.oracle.com/technology/products/bi/crystalball/index.ht ml

Dot NET Framework:http://www.microsoft.com/downloads/d...displaylang=en

Cc bc ci t Crystal Ball Bc 1: Lu phi ng chng trnh Excel trc khi tin hnh ci t. Kch chut hai ln vo tp tin Setup.exe ci t chng trnh Crystal Ball 11. Nhn nt Next qua bc tip theo.

Bc 2: Nhp tn ngi dng v tn cng ty ti hai hp User Name v Organization, sau nhn nt Next.

Bc 3: Chn kiu ci t l Complete v nhn nt Next qua bc tip theo

Bc 4: Nhn nt Install bt u ci t chng trnh

Bc 5: Thng bo ci t thnh cng. Nhn nt Finish hon tt.

Bc 6: Khi khi ng chng trnh, bn s nhn c hp thoi cho mng km theo thng tin ng k bn quyn phn mm. Bn nhn nt Try Crystal Ball dng th chng trnh trong 30 ngy hoc nhn nt Activate License tin hnh ng k phn mm.

thay i ni dung bi: TranThanhPhong, 23-05-10 lc 05:20 PM

Danh mc bi vit tng hp ca GPE | Mi ngy mt "tuyt chiu" | Hng dn s dng Crystal Ball | Gio trnh: Excel 2007 | Excel trong kinh t Phn 1 | Phn 2 | PowerPoint 2010 Linh tinh: SubTotal | Hm & Cng thc mng | Offset | Excel 97-2003 Options | Cc loi tham chiu | V biu |Custom Format | Kho & m kho tp tin Excel | nh dng theo iu kin Cu : 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 ...

C 26 thnh vin c m n TranThanhPhong v bi vi t ny:


anchoi9, binhan007, BNTT, danhhavpc, dat2007, dinhkhanhly, dinhtycorola, duong pham90, exging, honeyphuc84,hoquynhchau, hungnguyenit, ledung81, levanduyet, Longthienson, Massu, Mr Okebab, nguyenhdu, nokiasfone,philong3112, quinhon1989, renothing, stevedang, t am_20051, thanhduong_47xd6, vns-tvh 2. 18-09-08, 11:18 AM#2

TranThanhPhong
Thnh vin gn b

Tham gia ngy 03 2007 Ni C Ng Ho Chi Minh Bi gi 1,619 Cm n 2,104 c cm n 12,830 ln trong 1,380 bi vit

1.3. Khi ng Crystal Ball Bn c th vo Start | All Programs | Crystal Ball | chn Crystal Ball khi ng Crystal Ball hoc nhp tri chut vo biu tng Crystal Ball trn mn hnh Windows. Excel s t ng c khi ng cng vi Crystal Ball. Hp thoi cho mng ca Crystal Ball sau khi khi ng nh hnh sau. Bn c th b chn Show at startup ln khi ng sau n s khng xut hin.

Giao din ngn lnh ca Crystal Ball 11 trn Ribbon trong Excel 2007 nh hnh sau:

Thanh lnh Crystal Ball 11 trong Excel 2003 nh sau:

thay i ni dung bi: TranThanhPhong, 23-05-10 lc 05:00 PM

Danh mc bi vit tng hp ca GPE | Mi ngy mt "tuyt chiu" | Hng dn s dng Crystal Ball | Gio trnh: Excel 2007 | Excel trong kinh t Phn 1 | Phn 2 | PowerPoint 2010 Linh tinh: SubTotal | Hm & Cng thc mng | Offset | Excel 97-2003 Options | Cc loi tham chiu | V biu |Custom Format | Kho & m kho tp tin Excel | nh dng theo iu kin Cu : 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 ...

C 19 thnh vin c m n TranThanhPhong v bi vi t ny:


123vietnam, anchoi9, binhan007, BNTT, dinhtycorola, h5nry, honeyphuc84, hongng an, hungnguyenit, ledung81,Longthienson, nguyenhdu, nokiasfone, Thamgia, thanht ung3008, tuandq2, tuanqnbd, vns-tvh, Vudaiphuc315 3. 14-10-08, 01:43 PM#3

TranThanhPhong
Thnh vin gn b

Tham gia ngy 03 2007 Ni C Ng Ho Chi Minh Bi gi 1,619 Cm n 2,104 c cm n 12,830 ln trong 1,380 bi vit

1.4. Lm vic vi Crystal Ball Add-Ins trong Excel Cc loi Add-Ins trong Excel 2007 Vo hp thoi qun l cc Add-in trong Excel theo cc bc sau: chn nt Office | chn Excel Options | hp thoiExcel Options xut hin. Bn chn nhm AddIns trong danh sch bn tri hp thoi Excel Options. Cc Add-Ins c ci t vo my s th hin trong khung Add-Ins gia hp thoi: Crystal Ball c Oracle mua li k t phin bn 7, do vy mc d c i tn thnh Oracle Crystal Ball 11 nhng tn Add-Ins vn cn l Crystal Ball 7 v tnh nng khng c nhiu thay i.

Active Application Add-ins: chadanhsch cc add-in ng k vo h thng v ang hot ng. Inactive Application Add-ins: cha danh sch cc add-in ang c trong my tnh nhng hin cha hot ng Document Related Add-ins: cha danh sch cc template (mu thit k) m cc workbook ang m c s dng mu ny. Disabled Application Add-ins: cha danh sch cc add-in m chng s t ng b kha khng cho hot ng do chng lm treo chng trnh Office.

Qun l cc Add-ins trong Excel 2007

Vo nt Office |chn Excel Options | sau chnnhm AddIns. Trong hp Add-ins giabn hy xc nh Add-Ins m bn mun bt/ tt ang nm trong nhm no ti ct Type. Chn loi Add-in trong hp Manage v nhn nt Go. Chn hoc b chn Add-in m bn mun bt hoc tt, sau nhn nt OK.

Bt/ tt Crystal Ball trong Excel 2007 Do Crystal Ball l add-in thuc nhm COM Add-Ins, bn lm theo cc bc sau bt hoc tt add-in ny: Cch 1: Bn khi ng Crystal Ball bng cch vo Start | All Programs | Crystal Ball | Crystal Ball v khi n s t ng gi chng trnh Excel (mc nh) km theo. Mc nh y c ngha l khi my c ci t nhiu phin bn Excel th phin bn no ang c thit lp mc nh s c Crystal Ball gi ln. Cch 2: Bn khi ng Excel 2007 trc, sau vo Office | Excel Options | AddIns | ti hp Manage, bn chn COM Add-ins | nhn nt Go hp thoi COM Add-Ins xut hin:

T hp thoi COM Add-Ins bn c th chn (hoc b chn) add-in Crystal Ball 7 theo nhu cu ca mnh sau nhn OK. S dng CB Application Manager Trong Excel 2003 tr v trc, bn s khng tm thy biu tng Crystal Ball trong hp thoi Add-Ins nh cc phin bn Crystal c. Thay vo , bn c th thit lp ty chn cho php Crystal Ball t ng c np vo mi khi Excel khi ng. Vo Start | All Programs | Crystal Ball | chn Application Manager, hp thoi CB Application Manager xut hin nh hnh sau:

Bn chn hp When staring Microsoft Excel, automatically launch Crystal Ball v chn phin bn Excel s c khi ng km theo nu my bn c ci t nhiu phin bn Excel. Chn Use Microsoft .Net Framework 2.0, 3.0, or 3.5
thay i ni dung bi: TranThanhPhong, 23-05-10 lc 05:01 PM

Danh mc bi vit tng hp ca GPE | Mi ngy mt "tuyt chiu" | Hng dn s dng Crystal Ball | Gio trnh: Excel 2007 | Excel trong kinh t Phn 1 | Phn 2 | PowerPoint 2010 Linh tinh: SubTotal | Hm & Cng thc mng | Offset | Excel 97-2003 Options | Cc loi tham chiu | V biu |Custom Format | Kho & m kho tp tin Excel | nh dng theo iu kin Cu : 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 ...

C 43 thnh vin c m n TranThanhPhong v bi vi t ny:


anchoi9, anhhoanbeo, anhhop256, anhspy007, bandoc, binhan007, dat2007, dinhgi aa, dinhtycorola, duongpham90,giangthxd, hoalotus, honeyphuc84, hungnguyenit, h uunhat1988, HUYNHTANLUC, joro, ledung81, linkinpak007,Longthienson, luonggiang , luuhuong, maco, mailan1, NamThienVu, ngoalong, nguyenhdu, nho ngoc, nokiasfone,philong3112, puttynux, thanhthuy3979, thewonder, thin th, tieungaogiangho, tilambieng, tn0063, tranhuythuan,tuandq2, vns-tvh, voquocvi et, xedap 4. 25-09-09, 10:54 AM#4

TranThanhPhong
Thnh vin gn b

Tham gia ngy 03 2007 Ni C Ng Ho Chi Minh Bi gi 1,619 Cm n 2,104 c cm n 12,830 ln trong 1,380 bi vit

1.5. Tng quan v xy dng m hnh v phn tch ri ro Crystal Ball l mt cng c phn tch bng cch thc hin vic m phng trn m hnh bng tnh v t cung cp cc thng tin cn thit h tr cho ngi ra quyt nh mt cch chnh xc hn, hiu qu hn v tin cy hn. Trong phn ny s trnh by s lc v cc khi nim phn tch ri ro v lp m hnh. Ri ro v phn tch ri ro

S khng chc chc thng lin quan n ri ro, m bao gm kh nng xut hin cc s kin khng mong mun rt ln. V d nh doanh s k vng thng ti s cao hn tng gi tr thng hin hnh (s kin k vng), khi s c nhiu n hng hn v s lm gim lng hng tn kho. Nu lng hng tn kho gim qu nhiu th s lm chm tr vic chuyn giao cc n hng (s kin khng chc chn). S tr hon ny c th dn n vic nh mt cc n t hng v iu ny c kh nng gy nn mt s ri ro. Khi s khng chc chn v ri ro tng ln, vic ra quyt nh s tr nn kh khn hn rt nhiu. C hai im phi nh khi phn tch ri ro l: Ri ro u? Mc m ri ro gy nn nh th no?

Hu ht cc s thay i tt hoc xu u tim n cc ri ro. S phn tch chng thng thng s gip pht hin cc vng m ri ro tim n nh l: cc chi ph ngoi gi, s thiu ht hng tn kho, doanh s tng lai, cc kt qu kho st a cht, s thay i bt thng v nhn s, nhu cu khng th d bo, s thay i trong chi ph lao ng, cc quyt nh ca chnh ph, nhng s lin doanh lin kt tim n, cc lut mi sp ban hnh, Khi bn xc nh c cc ri ro ca mnh, mt m hnh ph hp c th gip bn nh lng c chng. S nh lng ri ro c ngha l s xc nh cc thay i m ri ro c th xy ra v tn tht m n c th gy ra. iu ny s gip bn quyt nh xem c ng phi chp nhn ri ro hay khng nhm t c mc tiu mong mun. V d nh, nu bn c 5% kh nng b tr tin v nu tr th bn phi tr khon tin pht ti $10.000 th khi bn c chp nhn ri r ny hay khng. Vic tm kim mt s chc chn t c mt kt qu xc nh no thng thng chnh l mc tiu ca m hnh phn tch. Phn tch ri ro s dng mt m hnh v xem xt cc bin no nh hng n mc tiu cn phn tch. Phn tch ri ro c th: Gip thot khi tnh trng khng iu khin v gip vic ra quyt nh tt hn bng cch kho st nhanh tt c cc tnh hung c th xy ra. Nhn dng c yu t hoc bin no nh hng nhiu nht ln mc tiu d bo. Lm sng t cc yu t khng chc chn trong m hnh gip cho thng tin v cc ri ro c nm bt tt hn.

M hnh l g? Crystal Ball lm vic vi m hnh trn bng tnh, c bit l m hnh bng tnh Excel. Bng tnh ca bn c th c sn mt m hnh ty thuc vo loi thng tin m bn c trn bng tnh v cch m bn s dng n. D liu i lp vi s phn tch:

Nu bn ch s dng bng tnh lu tr d liu: d liu v doanh thu, d liu hng tn kho, d liu k ton, th bn cha c mt m hnh trn bng tnh. Thm ch khi bn c s dng cc cng thc tnh ton trn d liu th c th bn vn cha c mt m hnh ph hp cho vic m phng. Mt m hnh l mt bng tnh m c t chc v d liu ph hp cho mt cng c phn tch. Mt m hnh phi biu din c s quan h gia cc bin u vo v u ra bng cch s dng phi hp cc cng thc, cc hm v d liu. Cc phn tch truyn thng trn bng tnh Khi to mt m hnh bn phi xc nh c cc bin bin i ca m hnh bng cch t t cu hi cho mnh Ti cm thy gi tr ca n (bin) chc chn nh th no? N c bin i hay khng? N c c c lng tt nht hay cha hay n l mt s vic c bit ri?. T , bn c th thy c trong m hnh ca mnh c mt vi yu t bin i m bn khng xc nh c mt cch chc chn. iu , c th l do bn vn cha c d liu thc t (s liu v doanh s thng ny) hoc l do s bin i khng th d bo c (chi ph n v sn phm). Phn tch truyn thng trn bng tnh c gng kim sot s khng chn chn ny bng 3 cch: c lng im: L cch c lng cc gi tr m bn cho l i din tt nht cho cc bin khng chc chn. c lng ny th d thc hin nhng c th dn n cc kt qu sai lm. c lng khong: L vic phn chia thnh 3 tnh hung phn tch tnh hung tt nht, tnh hung xu nht v tnh hung k vng. Cc kt qu phn tch cng th hin gi tr dng khong nhng khng bit c xc sut xut hin ca cc kt qu ny. Phn tch nhn qu: L dng phn tch nhm tr li cu hi iu g s xy ra nu nh (what if). Phn tch ny xem xt yu t u vo no l quan trng nht (yu t mang tnh cht ri ro) nh hng n kt qu bi ton (li nhun hoc chi ph). Trong Excel h tr phn tch nhy 1 chiu v hai chiu, ngha l ch nh gi c ti a 2 yu t ri ro. Phn tch nhy khng xt n mi quan h tng quan gia cc bin. Tuy nhin cc phng php phn tch trn c hai im hn ch chnh: Mt ln bn ch c th thay i mt bng tnh. Nh th, bn gn nh khng th kho st t m ton b dy kt qu c th c. Thc t, bn khng th xc nh c lng ri ro ang tc ng vo kt qu phn tch. Php phn tch nhn qu lun lun dn n nhng c lng im n, khng cho bit kh nng t c mt kt qu c th no . Trong khi nhng c lng im n cho bn bit ci g c th xy ra th chng li khng cho bn bit ci g c l ng. M phng bng Crystal Ball khc phc c cc gii hn ny: Bn c th m t mt phm vi cc gi tr c th c cho mi khng chc chn trong bng tnh ca bn. Cc ny gi l gi thuyt v khi m phng th chng bin i mt cch ng thi v cng ng thi tc ng n kt qu phn tch.

M phng Monte Carlo bng Crystal Ball m t cc kt qu trong th d bo v trnh by ton b kt qu c th c km theo kh nng (xc sut ) xut hin ca mi kt qu. M phng Monte Carlo Phn tch ri ro trn bng tnh s dng c m hnh bng tnh v m phng phn tch tc ng ca cc i lng bin i u vo ln cc i lng u ra ca m hnh h thng. M phng Monte Carlo cng l mt loi ca m phng trn bng tnh, n to ra cc gi tr ngu nhin cho cc yu t (bin) khng chc chn dng m phng mt m hnh.

M phng Monte Carlo v c bn ch l mt th nghim ly mu vi mc ch c tnh s phn phi ca mt bin kt qu m bin ny li ph thuc vo mt s bin bin i u vo. Thut ng m phng Monte Carlo u tin c dng trong sut thi k pht trin bom nguyn t di tn gi m phng my tnh ca qu trnh phn chia ht nhn. Cc nh nghin cu t tn thut ng ny cho m phng v n tng t nh vic ly mu ngu nhin trong cc tr chi sng bc ni ting ca thnh ph Monte Carlo.
thay i ni dung bi: TranThanhPhong, 23-05-10 lc 05:05 PM

Danh mc bi vit tng hp ca GPE | Mi ngy mt "tuyt chiu" | Hng dn s dng Crystal Ball | Gio trnh: Excel 2007 | Excel trong kinh t Phn 1 | Phn 2 | PowerPoint 2010 Linh tinh: SubTotal | Hm & Cng thc mng | Offset | Excel 97-2003 Options | Cc loi tham chiu | V biu |Custom Format | Kho & m kho tp tin Excel | nh dng theo iu kin Cu : 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 ...

C 17 thnh vin c m n TranThanhPhong v bi vi t ny:


binhan007, dat2007, daviq, dinhtycorola, ductam_ht1, duyle86, Hang Pham 90, honeyphuc84, ledung81, maco,mailan1, nguyenhdu, nho ngoc, thanhtung3008, tieungaogiangho, tuandq2, vns-tvh 5. 23-05-10, 05:06 PM#5

TranThanhPhong
Thnh vin gn b

Tham gia ngy 03 2007 Ni C Ng Ho Chi Minh Bi gi 1,619 Cm n 2,104 c cm n 12,830 ln trong 1,380 bi vit

1.6. Mt s thut ng M hnh bng tnh (Spreadsheet model): L bng tnh biu din mt h thng thc t hoc gi thuyt hay tp cc quan h. Gi thuyt (Assumption): L gi tr c lng hoc gi tr u vo c c lng cho mt m hnh bng tnh. M phng Monte Carlo (Monte Carlo simulation): H thng s dng cc s ngu nhin o lng nh hng ca s khng chc chn trong m hnh bng tnh. D on (Forecast): Tm tt thng k ca nhng gi thuyt trong mt m hnh bng tnh, trnh by di dng th v cc thng s. Xc sut (Probability): Kh nng s vic xy ra. S ngu nhin (Random number): Gi tr c chn mt cch ton hc, c pht sinh (theo cng thc) hoc c chn (t bng) tun theo mt phn phi xc sut. B pht s ngu nhin (Random number generator): L phng php theo chng trnh my tnh thc thi sinh ra mt chui s ngu nhin c lp. Phn phi xc sut (Probability Distribution): Tp hp tt c cc s kin c th c v xc sut ca chng lch chun (Standard Deviation): cn bc hai ca bnh phng ca phng sai i vi mt phn phi. i lng o phn tn ca cc gi tr nm xung quanh tr trung bnh. Gi tr trung bnh (Mean): trung bnh s hc ca mt tp cc gi tr quan st (tng ca cc gi tr quan st chia cho s quan st). Phng sai (Variance): bnh phng ca lch chun, tc l trung bnh ca bnh phng lch ca gi tr quan st so vi gi tr trung bnh. .... Danh mc bi vit tng hp ca GPE | Mi ngy mt "tuyt chiu" | Hng dn s dng Crystal Ball | Gio trnh: Excel 2007 | Excel trong kinh t Phn 1 | Phn 2 | PowerPoint 2010 Linh tinh: SubTotal | Hm & Cng thc mng | Offset | Excel 97-2003 Options | Cc loi tham chiu | V biu |Custom Format | Kho & m kho tp tin Excel | nh dng theo iu kin Cu : 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 ...

C 8 thnh vin c m n TranThanhPhong v bi vi t ny:


dinhtycorola, duonghoang05, duyle86, Hang Pham 90, honeyphuc84, iamcuong, ledung81, vns-tvh 6. 23-05-10, 05:10 PM#6

TranThanhPhong
Thnh vin gn b

Tham gia ngy 03 2007 Ni C Ng Ho Chi Minh Bi gi 1,619 Cm n 2,104 c cm n 12,830 ln trong 1,380 bi vit

2. S dng Crystal Ball chy m phng trn bng tnh Excel Mt s m rng t nhin ca phn tch nhy v phn tch tnh hung ng thi c tnh ti cc phn phi xc sut khc nhau v cc min gi tr tim nng khc nhau i vi cc bin chnh ca vn cn phn tch (v d d n). Cho php xt n s tng quan gia cc bin (ng bin/ nghch bin) To ra mt phn phi xc sut cho cc kt qu cn phn tch ca d n (cc ngn lu, NPV, IRR) thay v ch c tnh mt gi tr n l. Phn phi xc sut ca cc kt qu phn tch d n h tr cho cc nh ra quyt nh trong vic la chn cc phng n.

Qui trnh thit lp v chy m phng: 1. Lp m hnh bi ton trn Excel 2. Xc nh cc bin nhy cm v khng chc chn: nh phn phi xc sut, cc phn phi xc sut thng thng nht l: Phn phi xc xut chun, phn phi xc sut tam gic, phn phi xc sut u, phn phi xc sut bc thang 3. Xc nh v nh ngha cc bin c tng quan: Tng quan ng bin hoc nghch bin, mnh ca tng quan 4. nh ngha cc d bo: cc ch tiu cn phn tch trong bi ton 5. Thit lp cc thng s chy m phng: s ln th, chn phng php ly mu, tu chn chy phn tch nhy, ty chn chy Macro ca ngi dng trong khi m phng,... 6. To cc bo co: th, bng thng k m t, ... 7. Phn tch cc kt qu:Cc tr thng k,Cc phn phi xc sut

Cch Crystal Ball s dng m phng Monte Carlo Crystal Ball trin khai m phng Monte Carlo theo quy trnh lp 3 bc: 8. i vi mi gi thuyt, Crystal Ball pht ra mt s theo phn phi xc sut bn nh ngha v t n vo bng tnh. 9. Crystal Ball tnh li m hnh bi ton trn bng tnh 10. Sau Crystal Ball rt ra mt gi tr t mi d bo v thm n vo th trong cc ca s d bo. Mc d m phng Monte Carlo l mt phng tin v li mt tnh hung thc t, xin lu rng m hnh bng tnh ch c th xp x cc thnh phn ca thc tin. Khi bn kho st bi ton, bn c th loi mt s bin no v thm cc bin khc vo m hnh bng tnh. Hy tip tc iu chnh m hnh cho n khi bn cm thy n m t tnh hung thc t cng chnh xc cng tt. Danh mc bi vit tng hp ca GPE | Mi ngy mt "tuyt chiu" | Hng dn s dng Crystal Ball | Gio trnh: Excel 2007 | Excel trong kinh t Phn 1 | Phn 2 | PowerPoint 2010 Linh tinh: SubTotal | Hm & Cng thc mng | Offset | Excel 97-2003 Options | Cc loi tham chiu | V biu |Custom Format | Kho & m kho tp tin Excel | nh dng theo iu kin Cu : 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 ...

C 5 thnh vin c m n TranThanhPhong v bi vi t ny:


dinhtycorola, honeyphuc84, ledung81, tuandq2, vns-tvh

2.

24-05-10, 02:31 PM#7

TranThanhPhong
Thnh vin gn b

Tham gia ngy 03 2007 Ni C Ng Ho Chi Minh Bi gi 1,619 Cm n 2,104 c cm n 12,830 ln trong 1,380 bi vit

2.1. Lp m hnh bi ton trn Excel Phn ny chng ta s kho st tnh hung Vision Research nhm tm hiu cc c

tnh ca Crystal Ball su hn. Bg tnh Vision Research m hnh ha mt tnh hung thng mi c y tnh khng chc chn (ri ro). Vision Research pht trin ang pht trin mt loi thuc mi c tn m l ClearView dng tr tt cn th. Sn phm mi ny c th pht trin hon chnh v kim nghim kp a ra th trng trong nm ti nu c FDA cng nhn. Mc d thuc c tc dng tt trn mt vi bnh nhn nhng tng t l thnh cng chung li rt hn ch v Vision Research khng chc FDA c cng nhn sn phm ny hay khng? Vision Research s dng Crystal Ball h tr ra quyt nh hy b d n hoc tip tc pht trin v tip th loi thuc mi ny. D n ClearView l mt s mo him nhiu triu la. Crystal Ball l mt chng trnh h tr ra quyt nh tim nng c thit k loi b nhng phn vn khi cc quyt nh nh vy. Bng tnh Vision Research chng ta c th tm thy trong phn Crystal Ball | Resources | Examples Guide ca chng trnh.

Nhp chut ln lin kt Vision Research m m hnh bng tnh

M trc tip cc tp tin v d km theo phn mn ti th mc Examples trong th mc ci t chng trnh.

M hnh bi ton lp sn trn Excel.

Chng ta c m hnh bi ton trn bng tnh, bc tip theo l khai bo cho Crystal Ball bit u l cc bin ri ro ca d n. Ghi ch: Crystal Ball c ng dng rt rng trong nhiu lnh vc, do vy ty vn m chng ta s lp m hnh trn bng tnh khc nhau. Ti liu ny tp trung vo vic hng dn s dng cc tnh nng ca phn mm.
Tp tin nh km

o Vision Research.xls (62.5 KB, 713 ln ti) Danh mc bi vit tng hp ca GPE | Mi ngy mt "tuyt chiu" | Hng dn s dng Crystal Ball | Gio trnh: Excel 2007 | Excel trong kinh t Phn 1 | Phn 2 | PowerPoint 2010 Linh tinh: SubTotal | Hm & Cng thc mng | Offset | Excel 97-2003 Options | Cc loi tham chiu | V biu |Custom Format | Kho & m kho tp tin Excel | nh dng theo iu kin Cu : 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 ...

C 9 thnh vin c m n TranThanhPhong v bi vi t ny:


13112000, bombo007, dinhtycorola, Gu Trc L Ti, Hang Pham 90, honeyphuc84, ledung81, quanganminh, vns-tvh

2.

25-05-10, 04:11 PM#8

TranThanhPhong
Thnh vin gn b

Tham gia ngy 03 2007 Ni C Ng Ho Chi Minh Bi gi 1,619 Cm n 2,104 c cm n 12,830 ln trong 1,380 bi vit

Lot bi cho mng sinh nht GPE ln 4, nm 2010 2.2. Khai bo cc bin gi thuyt ca d n Cc bin gi thuyt hay cn gi l cc bin ri ro bin i trong sut qu trnh thc hin d n v nh hng trc tip hoc gin tip n kt qu ca d n. Khi khai bo cc bin gi thuyt ny, chng phi thuc vo mt kiu phn phi no trong danh mc cc phn phi m Crystal Ball h tr. Trong thc t, ty theo tp s liu thu thp c ca cc bin gi thuyt m chng c th c cc kiu phn phi khc nhau, chng ta s thc hnh phn xc nh kiu phn phi ca mt tp s liu qu kh cho trc phn sau. Trong d n ClearView, c tt c 5 bin ri ro l: chi ph kim nghim (Testing costs), chi ph tip th (Marketing costs), bnh nhn c iu tr (Patients Cured), t l gia tng ca tt cn th (Growth Rate of Nearsightedness) v mc thm nhp th trng (Market Penetration). Chng ta s ln lt khai bo cc bin ri ro ca d n ny cho chng trnh Crystal Ball. 2.2.1 Khai bo cho bin gi thuyt Chi ph kim nghim Vision Research chi ra tng cng 10 triu USD pht trin d n ClearView v c tnh phi chi thm t 3-5 triu USD na kim nghim n da trn nhng chi ph kim nghim trc y. Vision Research cho rng, kh nng xut hin chi ph kim nghim ch c th dao ng trong khong 3-5 triu m thi v xc xut sut hin ca mi gi tr nm trong khong ny l nh nhau. Do vy, Vision Research quyt nh bin chi ph kim nghim s tun theo phn phi u (Uniform distribution) vi gi tr nh nht l 3 triu USD v ln nht l 5 triu USD. Cc bc khai bo bin chi ph kim nghim thuc phn phi u nh sau:

Bc 1. M m hnh bng tnh Vision Research, chn C5,

Bc 2. Nhp chut vo nt Define Assumption t ngn Crystall Ball | nhm Define, ca s Distribution Gallery xut hin

Bc 3. Chn kiu phn phi u (Uniform) v nhp nt OK

Bc 4. Ti hp Name bn s thy Crystal Ball hin th tn cho bin C5 l Testing costs c ly t k bn. Bn khai bo thm gi tr ti hp Minimum l $3 v Maximun l $5 ri nhn nt OK.

Bn hon tt khai bo vi Crystal Ball thng tin v bin gi thuyt Chi ph kim nghim. Phn phi u: Trong phn phi u, tt c cc gi tr trong khong t gi tr nh nht n gi tr ln nht u c xc sut xut hin nh nhau. Ba iu kin c bn c mt phn phi u: Gi tr nh nht (Minimum) l c nh Gi tr ln nht (Maximum) l c nh Tt c cc gi tr trong khong t Min ti Max u c kh nng xut hin nh nhau.
thay i ni dung bi: TranThanhPhong, 25-05-10 lc 05:37 PM

Danh mc bi vit tng hp ca GPE | Mi ngy mt "tuyt chiu" | Hng dn s dng Crystal Ball | Gio trnh: Excel 2007 | Excel trong kinh t Phn 1 | Phn 2 | PowerPoint 2010 Linh tinh: SubTotal | Hm & Cng thc mng | Offset | Excel 97-2003 Options | Cc loi tham chiu | V biu |Custom Format | Kho & m kho tp tin Excel | nh dng theo iu kin Cu : 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 ...

C 5 thnh vin c m n TranThanhPhong v bi vi t ny:


dinhtycorola, honeyphuc84, ledung81, tuandq2, vns-tvh 2. 26-05-10, 12:22 PM#9

TranThanhPhong
Thnh vin gn b

Tham gia ngy 03 2007 Ni C Ng Ho Chi Minh Bi gi 1,619 Cm n 2,104 c cm n 12,830 ln trong 1,380 bi vit

Lot bi cho mng sinh nht GPE ln 4, nm 2010 2.2.2. Khai bo cho bin gi thuyt Chi ph tip th Vision Research lp k hoch chi mt khon ng k cho vic tip th ClearView nu

c FDA cng nhn. Vision Research s thu mt lng ln nhn vin bn hng v bt u chin dch qung co rng ri gio dc cng chng v loi sn phm mi ny. Tng chi ph qung co v tin hoa hng bn hng m Vision Research c tnh s nm trong khong gia t $12 triu n $18 triu v kh nng xut hin cao nht l $16 triu. Do tnh cht ca chi ph nh th nn Vision Research quyt nh chn kiu phn phi tam gic (Triangular Distribution) m t cho bin ny. Cc bc thc hin khai bo bin gi thuyt chi ph tip th theo phn phi tam gic: Bc 1. M m hnh bng tnh Vision Research, chn C6 Bc 2. Nhp chut vo nt Define Assumption t ngn Crystall Ball | nhm Define, ca s Distribution Gallery xut hin. Bc 3. Chn kiu phn phi tam gic v nhp nt OK

Bc 4. Ti hp Name bn s thy Crystal Ball hin th tn cho bin C6 l Marketing Costs c ly t k bn. Bn khai bo cho hp thoi ny nh sau: nt OK Minimum: $12 Maximun: $18 Likeliest: $16 Nhn nt Enter xem hnh ca phn phi, sau nhn ng hp thoi khai bo.

Phn phi tam gic: Phn phi tam gic m t mt trng thi m bn bit c gi tr ti a v ti thiu v cc gi tr thng xuyn xut hin nht. Cc iu kin c phn phi tam gic: Gi tr nh nht (Minimum) l c nh Gi tr ln nht (Maximum) l c nh Gi tr thng xuyn xut hin nht ca bin nm gia gi tr nh nht v ln nht.
Tp tin nh km

Vision Research.xls (64.0 KB, 369 ln ti) Danh mc bi vit tng hp ca GPE | Mi ngy mt "tuyt chiu" | Hng dn s dng Crystal Ball | Gio trnh: Excel 2007 | Excel trong kinh t Phn 1 | Phn 2 | PowerPoint 2010 Linh tinh: SubTotal | Hm & Cng thc mng | Offset | Excel 97-2003 Options | Cc loi tham chiu | V biu |Custom Format | Kho & m kho tp tin Excel | nh dng theo iu kin Cu : 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 ...

C 10 thnh vin c m n TranThanhPhong v bi vi t ny:


baothu12, deepredabc, dinhtycorola, Hang Pham 90, honeyphuc84, ledung81, renothing, trungtrdh, tuandq2, vns-tvh 3. 27-05-10, 10:46 AM#10

TranThanhPhong
Thnh vin gn b

Tham gia ngy 03 2007 Ni C Ng Ho Chi Minh Bi gi 1,619 Cm n 2,104 c cm n 12,830 ln trong 1,380 bi vit

Lot bi cho mng sinh nht GPE ln 4, nm 2010 2.2.3. Khai bo cho bin gi thuyt bnh nhn c iu tr Trc khi FDA cng nhn ClearView, Vision Research phi tin hnh kim nghim trn mu 100 bnh nhn trong vng mt nm. PDA quy nh rng h s chp thun ClearView cha khi tt cn th cho t 20 bnh nhn ny tr ln m khng c bt k nh hng ph nghim trng no. Ni cch khc, t nht 20% bnh nhn c kim nghim phi c cha khi sau khi dng ClearView trong khong mt nm. Vision Research rt hy vng sau cuc kim nghim ny th t l thnh cng s l khong 25%. Vi thng tin kim nghim vi t l thnh cng l 25%, do vy Vision Research quyt nh s dng phn phi nh thc (Binomial distribution) m t tnh khng chc chn trong tnh hung ny v phn phi nh thc m t s cc th nghim thnh cng (l 25) trong tng s cc th nghim (l 100). Cc bc khai bo cho bin ny nh sau: Bc 1. M m hnh bng tnh Vision Research, chn C10 Bc 2. Nhp chut vo nt Define Assumption t ngn Crystall Ball | nhm Define, ca s Distribution Gallery xut hin. Bc 3. Chn nhm All, sau chn kiu phn phi nh thc v nhp nt OK

Bc 4. Ti hp Name bn s thy Crystal Ball hin th tn cho bin C10 l Patients Cured c ly t k bn. Bn khai bo cho hp thoi ny nh sau: Ti hp Probability: nhp vo t l thnh cng l 0.25 hoc 25% u c Ti hp Trials: nhn vo s ln th nghim l 100 Nhn nt Enter xem hnh dng ca phn phi v nhn nt OK hon tt.

Phn phi nh thc: Phn phi nh thc m t s ln xut hin ca mt bin c c th trong mt s ln th nht nh, v d nh s mt nga trong 10 ln tung ng tin. Cc iu kin hnh thnh phn phi nh thc: Vi mi ln th, ch c th xy ra hai kt qu Cc ln th l c lp nhau. iu g xy ra trong ln th th nht s khng nh hng n ln th th hai, Xc sut mt bin c xy ra s khng i t ln th ny n ln th khc. Danh mc bi vit tng hp ca GPE | Mi ngy mt "tuyt chiu" | Hng dn s dng Crystal Ball | Gio trnh: Excel 2007 | Excel trong kinh t Phn 1 | Phn 2 | PowerPoint 2010 Linh tinh: SubTotal | Hm & Cng thc mng | Offset | Excel 97-2003 Options | Cc loi tham chiu | V biu |Custom Format | Kho & m kho tp tin Excel | nh dng theo iu kin Cu : 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 ...

C 16 thnh vin c m n TranThanhPhong v bi vi t ny:


13112000, bahieu17, baothu12, batmi, bowcuibap, deepredabc, dinhtycorola, honey phuc84, khanhkx01, renothing,suachua_vt, thanhphamtan, trungtrdh, tuandq2, van nam200588, vns-tvh Trang 1/212 cu i
Chuyn tip nhanh n chuyn mc khc Cc Add-ins cho excel Tr Ln Trn

Ti Trc | Ti K

You might also like