Tai Chinh Hanh Vi - Behavior Finance

B GIO DC V O TO TRNG I HC KINH T TP.
HCM KHOA O TO SAU I HC
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LP CAO HC M 1 - KHO 20 GVHD: GS.TS TRN NGC TH NHM THC HIN: NHM 4
THNG 04 NM 2012
Nhn xt ca Ging vin:

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DANH SCH NHM THC HIN

STT 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 H Bi Anh Nguyn Th Thanh L Th Ngc Nguyn nh Nguyn Th Kim Bi Th Thanh Mai Th L Nguyn Th Kim Vng Vn Trn Th Xun Nguyn Th Bch Nguyn Trn Qunh inh Th Huyn ng L Hng TN Chnh Ho Mai Nam Hong Hng Huyn Oanh Thun Thy Thy Tin Trm Trc GHI CH
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CHNG I LCH S V LUN IM RA I L THUYT TI CHNH HNH VI
1. Lch s ra i L thuyt ti chnh hnh vi: ...................................................................1 2. Ba tr ct ca l thuyt th trng hiu qu lm ny sinh l thuyt ti chnh hnh vi 4 2.1/ Tr ct 1: Nh u t khn ngoan................................................................................... 6 2.2/ Tr ct 2: Cc sai lch khng tng quan ......................................................................6 2.3/ Tr ct 3: Kinh doanh chnh lch gi khng b gii hn ................................................ 7 3. Ti chnh hnh vi l g? .................................................................................................8 Ba iu kin tn ti ca ti chnh hnh vi? ...........................................................................10 Cc trng phi v tm l hc v ng dng trong ti chnh hnh vi .....................................10 Cc ngun ti liu chnh dng lm c s l thuyt cho bi ................................................... 11
CHNG II BA LUN C V L THUYT TI CHNH HNH VI

2.1 Hnh vi khng hp l ...................................................................................................13 2.1.1 L thuyt trin vng (prospect theory) .....................................................................13 Tnh ton bt hp l (Mental Accounting) .............................................................................16 T iu chnh (Self-Control) .................................................................................................16 2.1.2 S t nghim hay thut ton (Heuristics) v xu hng lch lc (Bias) ................... 16 T nghim hay thut ton (heuristics) v xu hng lch lc (Bias) .................................17 a/ S quen thuc v cc t nghim c lin quan ............................................................... 17 S quen thuc (familiar) .......................................................................................................18 E ngi s m h (ambiguous aversion) ................................................................................. 19 T nghim a dng ho (diversification heuristic) .................................................................20 Khng thch s thay i v hiu ng coi trng ti sn s hu ...............................................20 b/ Tnh hung in hnh (representativeness) v cc xu hng lch lc lin quan (relative representativeness) .............................................................................................................21 Lch lc do tnh hung in hnh (Representativeness) ......................................................... 21 T nghim sn c (availability heuristics), tc th (recency bias) v ni tri (salience bias) ...21 S neo vo - Anchoring .....................................................................................................22 2.1.3 Tm l con ngi (Psychological Human) ................................................................ 23 L thuyt tic nui (regret theory) ........................................................................................ 24 1
Tm l s mt mt (loss aversion) ........................................................................................ 24 Qu t tin (overconfidence) v phn ng thi qu hay bi quan (overreaction or underreaction) ..............................................................................................................................................24 S c lng sai (miscalibration): ....................................................................................... 25 Hiu ng tt hn trung bnh (better than average effect): ..................................................... 25 o tng kim sot (illusion of control) ...............................................................................26 Qu lc quan- excessive optimisim ....................................................................................... 26 Tm l bo th (convervatism) ............................................................................................. 27 2.2 Hnh vi khng hp l mang tnh h thng .................................................................28 2.3 Gii hn kh nng kinh doanh chnh lch gi trn th trng ti chnh ................... 29 a/ Ri ro c bn (fundemental risk) ...................................................................................... 31 b/ Chi ph thc hin (implementation costs) ..........................................................................31 c/ Ri ro t nhng nh u t bt hp l (noise trader risk) .................................................. 32
CHNG III CC BIU HIN TI CHNH HNH VI TRN TH TRNG CHNG KHON VIT NAM
1. S nt s ra i v pht trin ca th trng chng khon Vit Nam: ........................ 34 Giai on 1: 2000- 2005 : Giai on chp chng bit i ca th trng chng khon. ...........34 Giai on 2: T nm 2006 n cui nm 2007: Th trng chng khon Vit Nam trong giai on bong bng u c: ................................................................................................................ 35 Giai on 3: T nm 2008 n thng 2 nm 2009: Thc trng th trng sau bong bng ...38 Giai on 4: T thng 03/2009 n nay: th trng c s phc hi trong ngn hn sau cc giao dch trn th trng dn tr nn m m ...............................................................................39 2. Cc biu hin ca ti chnh hnh vi trn th trng chng khon Vit Nam: .............41 Giai on 1 ........................................................................................................................... 42 Giai on 2 ........................................................................................................................... 42 Giai on 3 ........................................................................................................................... 46 Giai on 4 ........................................................................................................................... 47
CHNG IV NG DNG V NH HNG CA TI CHNH HNH VI TRONG QUN TR DOANH NGHIP

1. Mt vi ng dng ca ti chnh hnh vi trong qun tr doanh nghip. ........................ 49 2
a. Thay i tn cng ty: ........................................................................................................49 b. Pht hnh c phiu v mua li: ......................................................................................... 49 c. C tc ............................................................................................................................... 49 2. nh hng ca ti chnh hnh vi trong qun tr doanh nghip. ..................................50 a. Khng t b d n km hiu qu ...................................................................................... 50 b. nh hng cm xc c nhn n cc la chn. .................................................................51 c. Hot ng u t ..............................................................................................................51 PH LC CC BI VIT NGHIN CU CC CUC KHNG HONG TI CHNH TON CU Bi 1: Bong bng v sp - i khng hong 1929 ............................................................1 Bi 2: Khng hong Hoa Tu-lp ..............................................................................................3 Bi 3: Bong bng v sp - Sp th trng chng khon 1987 ........................................4 Bi 4: Bong bng v sp - Bong bng South Sea ...............................................................6 Bi 5: "Bong bng" c phiu trn Nasdaq ...............................................................................9 Bi 6: Khng hong Kinh t Chu 1997 - Mt gc nhn ......................................................12 TI LIU THAM KHO
Tiu lun: L thuyt Ti chnh hnh vi
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CHNG I LCH S V LUN IM RA I L THUYT TI CHNH HNH VI

1. Lch s ra i L thuyt ti chnh hnh vi Trong vi thp nin gn y, mt khi nim ti chnh mi c nhc n nhiu v rt gn gi vi cc nh kinh t. l L thuyt v ti chnh hnh vi (Behavioral finance theory). Ngy nay, vic ng dng v nghin cu l thuyt ti chnh hnh vi tr thnh kh ph bin v cn gip nhiu nh u t ci thin ng k chin lc u t ca mnh Ti chnh hnh vi l mt phn ca ti chnh, nghin cu hiu v gii thch nhng biu hin mang tnh tm l ca con ngi trn th trng ti chnh, s dng nhng kin thc thuc phm tr tm l hc, x hi hc v ti chnh hc l gii nhng hnh vi bt thng ca nh u t m cha c l gii trong nn tng ca l thuyt truyn thng1. Nghin cu ti chnh hnh vi l nghin cu nh hng tm l ca nh u t v nhng h qu theo sau ln th trng ti chnh. Ti chnh hnh vi ng vai tr rt quan trng trong vic gii thch ti sao v lm th no th trng c th khng hiu qu.2 hiu su hn v L thuyt ti chnh hnh vi. Chng ta cn tm hiu s nt v lch s hnh thnh ca l thuyt ny? C th ni tng v L thuyt ti chnh hnh vi ra i rt lu nhng li c t nhiu ngi v nghin cu. Trc y, cc nh kinh t hc mun tch kinh t hc ra thnh mt ngnh khoa hc t nhin, m khoa hc t nhin th c gii thch bng cc quy lut, quy chun c phn kh khan. Sau cuc khng hong ti chnh 1987 v khng hong ti chnh 2008, dng nh ngi ta t du hi ln cc quy lut m trc gi chng ta ang nghin cu da trn ri ro v t sut sinh li vn d kh lnh lng. Khi nhc ti lch s ca L thuyt ti chnh hnh vi, ngi ta thng nhc ti khi u t nghin cu u tay ca nh tm l hc ngi Php, Jean-Gabriel De Tarde (1843 1904), v ng dng tm l hc vo khoa hc kinh t vi tc phm La psychologie conomique xut bn nm 1903 v George Charles Selden vi tc phm Psychology of the Stock Market xut bn nm 1912. Sau , mi ti nm 1973, ti chnh hnh vi mi c nhng bc tin ng k khi m hai nh tm l hc ti nng Amos Tversky v Daniel Kahneman a ra nhng thut ton sn c (availability heuristic) c lng tn sut nhm hay xc sut ca cc s kin bng thut ton ny. Tversky v Daniel Kahneman a ra 03 thut ton c ng dng nhiu trong vic a ra quyt nh trong tnh trng khng chc chn: Tnh i din representative: Khi ai yu cu nh gi xc xut m mt s vt hay s kin A ph thuc vo cch thc v mc xy ra ca s vt v s kin B, nhng xc sut
Theory of Behaviroural Finance and its application to propery market Dr.Rohit Kishore, University of Western Sydney, Australia 2 Behavioural Finance Martin Sewell - 2007
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xy ra c nh gi bng mc m A l i din ca B, tc l mc ca A tng ng vi B Tnh sn c availability: Khi ai c yu cu nh gi tn sut ca nhm hay kh nng xy ra ca mt s kin, h lm vy bng cch lm n gin ha nhng trng hp hay s kin c th c mang ra bn lun. Ci neo v nhng nhn nh anchoring and judgement: Trong d tnh bng s hc, khi mt gi tr lin quan (mt ci neo) c sn, ngi ta bt u nh gi t mt gi tr ban u (the auchor) c iu chnh mang li gi tr cui cng. Gi tr ban u ny c th c ngh di dng cng thc hay c th l kt qu ca mt php tnh no .
Sang nhng nm 1980, l thuyt ti chnh hnh vi c tho lun ri rc trong mt s nghin cu ca cc hc gi kinh t ni ting nh Nh kinh t hc ngi M - Richard H. Thaler vi nhng tho lun nh: s thiu ht ca chi ph c hi, tht bi trong vic b qua chi ph chm, hnh vi nghin cu, la chn khng la chn v hi tic (choosing not to choose and regret), t kim sot. Ngoi ra, ng cn cp n khi nim mental accounting tnh ton bt hp l, theo ngi ta c gng m t cc qu trnh m nh ngi ta tp hp, phn loi v nh gi nhng tc ng/hu qu kinh t. Sau , ng tip tc theo ui khi nim ny cng vi Werner F.M De Bondt cho ra hc thuyt mang tn hc thut v tnh ton bt hp l (mental accounting theory) Nm 1981, Tversky v Kahneman gii thiu mu hnh (framing), hai ng ch ra nhng tm l chnh chi phi nhn thc v cc vn a ra quyt nh, nh gi kh nng v kt qu gy ra ca nhng thay i v s thch c d bo trc trong cc tnh hung khc nhau m chng c sp t trc Trong thi gian ny, nh du cao im nht l tc phm nh gi di mc chc chn: cc thut ton, kinh nghim v xu hng c tnh lch lc (Judgement Under Certainty: Heuristic and Biases) xut bn nm 1982 ca Kahneman, Slovic v Tversky vi 35 chng m t nhng nhn nh khc nhau v thut ton v thnh kin h a ra. Nm 1988, nh du bng s kin Samuelson v Zeckhauser nu ra mt chui cc bng chng thc nghim v vic ra quyt nh v pht hin ra hin tng xu hng lch lc (status quo bias). l hin tng lch lc v nhn thc dn ngi ta thch nhng th cn li tng t hay nhng th thay i mt t c th nu h bt buc phi thay i kin ca mnh. Sang nm 1990, Kahneman, Knetch v Thaler cng bo co mt vi thc nghim m t tm l s mt mt loss aversion v hiu ng by n endownment effect tht bi ngay c trong th trng sp t vi nhng c hi hc v kt lun rng chng l nhng c tnh nn tng. Nm 1992, Banerjee pht trin mt m hnh n gin v hnh vi by n. Cng nm , Kahneman va Tversky cng b phn b sung l thuyt trin vng ca h bng l thuyt trin vng ly tin (cumulative prospect theory). H phng php lun mi ny tn dng
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tnh ly tin hn l mc quyt nh ring bit n s khng chc chn cng nh nhng ri ro k vng vi bt k mc h qu no. N cng tnh n mc tng thm khc nhau ca thu nhp v mt i.
Hnh: M t mc xc sut gia gi tr nhn c (w+) v gi tr mt i (w-) trong l thuyt trin vng ly tin Nm 1995, Grinblatt, Titman v Wermers phn tch hnh vi ca cc qu m (mutual fund)3, ng tm thy bng chng ca nhng chin lc u t n by (momentum strategies) v hin tng u c u c (hedge) Nm 1997, bng nghin cu thc nghim, Basu tm ra c tnh bo th (conservatism) m nh ng gii thch c v sao m th trng phn ng vi tin xu nhanh hn nhng tin tt. Sang nm 1999, Camerer v Lavallo tm thy mt cch thc chng rng s qu t tin (overconfidence) v s qu lc quan (optimism) dn n nhng li kinh doanh qu mc. Wermer (1999) nghin cu thm v u c (hedge) v nhn thy rng khuynh hng u c c du hiu tng cao nht trong giao dch nhng c phiu nh v nhng ngun tin c khuynh hng tng. Nm 2000, Rabin a ra nhng l l c tnh thuyt phc ch ra rng l thuyt th trng hiu qu l mt s gii thch hon ton ng nghi ng cho nhng ri ro khng mong mun (risk aversion) i vi nhng nguyn tc hin i. Lee v Swaminathan (2000) cng ch ra rng nhng khi lng giao dch trong qu kh c mi lin h quan trng gia n by (momentum) v chin lc gi (value strategies). N gip lm tng thch gia tc ng ca phn ng di mc (underreaction) v phn ng qu mc (overreaction)
y l loi qu rt ph bin ti M, cng vi n cn c Hedge Fund tm dch l Qu ng v n thng l qu ni b gia cc nh giu, khng cng khai ra cng chng. Mc ch ca 02 qu ny dng u t chng khon, tri phiu, cng c th trng tin t, ti sn tng ng, . Thi hn ca cc khon gp vn thng tnh bng n v nm, ph bin t nht l 5 nm
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Cc nh kinh t hc bt u quan tm nhiu hn n ti chnh hnh vi v kinh t ton cu khi Robert Shiller xut bn quyn sch ni ting S m h bt hp l (Irrational Exuberance) nm 2000 (cun ti bn ln th 2 nm 2005 c cp nht thm bong bng nh t (housing bubble)) d bo chnh xc s sp ca th trng c phiu ton cu khng lu sau , to bc ngot ln cho nhng nh nghin cu ti chnh hnh vi lin tc a ra cc nghin cu mi. Ngoi ra trong nm 2000, Shleifer xut bn n phm rt ni ting (Inefficient Markets: An introduction to Behavioral Finance), trong xem xt L thuyt ti chnh hnh vi trong mi lin h vi L thuyt th trng hiu qu. Nm 2002, Gilovish, Griffin v Kahneman xut bn n phm ni ting v Ti chnh hnh vi (Heritics and Biases: The psychology of Instuitive Judgement). Cun sch l s kt hp hu ht nhng nhn t quan trng nht ca L thuyt ti chnh hnh vi. Trong cc tc gi nu ra 06 thut ton hay s tri nghim chung gm: s nh hng (affect4), tnh sn c (availability), tnh h qu (causality), tnh tri chy (fluency), tnh tng ng (similarity) v tnh bt ng (surprise) v 06 thut ton kinh nghim ring gm phn phi (attribution), thay th (substitution), s tn thng (outrage), nguyn mu (prototype), s tha nhn (recognition), la chn bng thch th (choose by liking) v la chn mc nh (choose by default). Trong tc phm ca cc tc gi, thay th 02 nhn t ca ti chnh hnh vi l Lch lc trong tnh hung in hnh- representativeness bng tnh phn phi v thay th (attribution-substitution) v s neo ko nhn nh (anchoring and judgement) bng thut ton hiu ng (the affect heuristic) Sau cuc i khng hong ti chnh ton cu nm 2008, m in hnh l cuc khng hong bong bng nh t ti M khin ngi ta phi quan tm nhiu n l thuyt ny nhm gii thch nhng hin tng bt thng ca kinh t m cc l thuyt trc y cha ch ra c
Mt trong nhng tranh lun gay gt nht l l thuyt th trng hiu qu, l nhiu ngi li cho cuc khng hong ti chnh l do l thuyt th trng hiu qu v cng c quan im bo v n v ngi ta vn khng cho th trng l hiu qu (Meir Statman). Di y chng ta nghin cu v 03 tr ct ca th trng hiu qu t a ra lun im v ti chnh hnh vi. 2. Ba tr ct ca l thuyt th trng hiu qu (The efficient market hypothesis) lm ny sinh l thuyt ti chnh hnh vi (behaviour finance) Khng c lch s r rng v L thuyt th trng hiu qu, nhng ngi ta vn coi Eugena Fama5 l ngi khi u cho l thuyt ny, khi ng cho xut bn bi vit ni ting trn t tp tr The Journal
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The affect heuristic: Lin quan n s tt (goodness) v s xu (badness) Eugena Fama l mt nh kinh t hc ngi M, ng ni ting vi l thuyt danh mc u t (portfolio theory), nh gi chng khon.
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of Finance vi ta : Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work nm 1970. Tuy nhin, trong bi vit ca ng li dng t Xem li l thuyt (Review of Theory) ngha l ng da trn nhng l thuyt trc nghin cu, theo trang ti liu English Wikipedia cho rng l thuyt u tin v th trng hiu qu c khai sinh bi Louis Bachelier, mt nh ton hc ngi Php trong tc phm The theory of Speculation (1900). Vy th trng hiu qu l g? Th trng hiu qu c th c hiu nm na l ni m ti bt k thi im no, tt c cc thng tin mi u c nhng ngi tham gia th trng nm bt mt cch nhanh chng, thng tin nhanh chng c phn nh vo gi c th trn v cc nh u t phn ng mt cch ng n vi tt c thng tin sn c. Theo l thuyt ny th gi lun ng (prices are right6), v ng bng gi tr c bn (fundemental value7) ca ti sn . y chnh l tng chit khu ca dng tin k vng trong tng lai, nh u t phn ng mt cch chnh xc vi thng tin sn c, v t sut chit khu ph hp vi cc mu hnh la chn ph hp mt cch chun tc. V khng c chin lc u t no c th kim c nhiu tin hn mc li tc trung bnh iu chnh ri ro (risk-adjusted average returns). Khi nghin cu v l thuyt ti chnh hnh vi trong mi tng quan vi l thuyt th trng hiu qu, ngi ta tm ra 03 tr ct ca th trng hiu qu v 06 bi hc dn dt cho cc quyt nh v hnh vi cc nh u t khn ngoan trong mt s tnh hung nht nh c th b hoi nghi v tnh hiu qu ca n. Su bi hc ca th trng hiu qu l:
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Bi hc 1: Th trng khng c tr nh (Markets have no memory) Bi hc 2: Hy tin vo gi th trng (Trust market prices) Bi hc 3: Hy c su (Read the entrails) Bi hc 4: Khng c cc o tng ti chnh (There are no financial illusions) Bi hc 5: Phng n t lm ly (The do it yourself alternative) Bi hc 6: xem mt c phn, hy xem tt c (Seen one stock, seen them all)
Page 1056 A survey of behavioral finance Nicolas Barberis (University of Chicago) Nguyn bn trong A survey of behavioral finance- Nicolas Barberis (2003), page 1056, This is the discounted sum of expected future cash flows, where in forming expectations, investors correctly process all available information, and where the discount rate is consistent with a normatively acceptable preference specifications. T normatively acceptable preference specifications c l tc gi m ch cc m hnh mang tnh chun tc xc nh t sut sinh li trong mi quan h ri ro v li nhun, nh CAPM, kinh doanh chnh lch gi (APT), cung cu th trng,Nh th, c th hiu gi tr c bn chnh l gi tr ni ti (Intrinsic value) ca cng ty hay ti sn da trn nhn thc c bn v gi tr thc ca n bao gm cc kha cnh ca doanh nghip, trong c nhng nhn t hu hnh v v hnh. Gi tr ny c th hoc khng th (may or may not) l gi tr th trng. Nh u t theo gi tr s dng cc cng c phn tch khc nhau tm gi tr ni ti vi hy vng tm kim khon u t m gi tr ni ti c sai lch vi gi th trng (current market value) (Theo t in investopedia.com)
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Ba tr ct ca l thuyt th trng hiu qu v gii hn ca n lm ny sinh l thuyt ti chnh hnh vi(8) L thuyt th trng hiu qu c ba gi nh chnh hay ba tr ct c k vng l khng th ph v ni. 2.1/ Tr ct 1: Nh u t khn ngoan (Rational Investors9): Rt kh c th a ra mt khi nim y nht v nh u t khn ngoan hay nh u t duy l. Nhng ta c th hiu nh u t khn ngoan l nhng nh u t nh gi chnh xc gi tr c bn ca chng khon v h cng phn ng hay x l mt cc ng n vi tt c thng tin. H l nhng con ngi hon ho. Bng nhng thut ton, nhng cng c nh m hnh CAPM, m hnh kinh doanh chnh lch gi (APT), m hnh danh mc u t ca Markowitz,. nh gi gi tr c bn ca ti sn, a n v gi tr c bn nu c vic nh gi sai xy ra. Nhng thc t, khng phi ai cng hon ho nh vy, c nhng nh u t phn ng bt thng trn th trng v l thuyt th trng hiu qu gi thit rng h phn ng khng c tng quan hay mi lin h no. Tuy nhin, th trng hiu qu cng nhn thy c mt s cc nh u t bt thng (irrational investors) v hnh ng ca h c gi thit tr ct 2. 2.2/ Tr ct 2: Cc sai lch khng tng quan Mt vi nh u t c th c cc hnh vi bt thng (cn c gi l nh u t bt thng irrational investors hay nh giao dch gy nhiu noise traders), tuy nhin nu nhng hot ng u t ny ch mang tnh ngu nhin, t pht (the random fashion) v khng tng quan vi nhau (uncorrelated). Th lin sau giao dch ca h s b loi tr bi cc nh u t khn ngoan (rational investors) v kt qu hot ng ca h khng nh hng n gi. Tnh logic ng sau gi nh ny l hot ng giao dch ca nh u t c tng quan km vi nhng ngi khc. Nu hnh vi ca con ngi l ngu nhin s khng c lo ngi v tnh hiu qu ca th trng, bi v giao dch ca h c th b loi tr. S khng gy ra mt nh hng ng k no n gi. Tuy nhin, chng ta s thy trong cc phn hai ca bi, cc nh tm l hc bng thc nghim ch ra rng cc nh u t bt thng vi phn on sai thng c xu hng chung ngha l ngi ta thng i chch khi s k vng ca mnh theo cng mt phng thc tng t nhau. Hay hnh vi bt thng ca h c tnh tng quan nhau th y l vn ng bn! N c th y gi xa hn na so vi gi tr c bn. Tuy nhin, trong th trng hiu qu vn tn ti tr ct 3 c th ha gii hoc ngn chn iu ny v a gi tr v gi tr c bn, gi tr thc ban u. l nghip v kinh doanh chnh lch gi.
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Tham kho Market Rationally: Efficient Market Hypothesis versus Market Anomalies Kadir Can Yalcin Page 2829 v Behavioral finance: Psychology, Decision-Making, and Markets Ackert & Deaves, page 105 112 9 Cm t irrational investors tm dch l nh u t bt thng hay nh u t bt hp l. H khng theo bt k quy lut no ca th trng nh nhng nh u t khng ngoan hay duy l (rational investors)
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2.3/ Tr ct 3: Kinh doanh chnh lch gi khng b gii hn Nu cc nh u t bt thng c hnh vi phi l, cc hot ng ny li c tng quan cao vi nhau. Th theo l thuyt th trng hiu qu, cc nh u t khn ngoan nhn thy c vic nh gi sai ny, h s dng nghip v kinh doanh chnh lch gi (arbitrage10), vi gi thit khng b gii hn kinh doanh chnh lch gi, iu chnh vic nh gi sai v xa b hnh ng bt thng ca nh u t. T , h va tm c li nhn va a gi chng khon b nh gi sai v trng thi gi tr thc ban u. Bng cch mua chng khon r v bn chng khon mc. Kt qu l th trng vn gi nguyn tnh hiu qu. Th trng hiu qu cho rng vic kinh doanh chnh lch gi n s khng tn chi ph v gnh chu ri ro. minh ho cho vic kinh doanh chnh lch gi hot ng nh th no, chng ta bt u vi v d 03 loi ng tin vi t gi ti thi im thng 05/2008 nh sau CP T GI / /$ /$ T GI DIN GII 159.3403 1 i c 159.3403 0.6455 1 $ i c 0.6455 x 1 $ i c x
Mc tiu ca chng ta l i USD sang JPY. C hai cch i trc tip t USD sang JPY theo t gi x ti thi im i. Vn ny s bnh thng v hu nh khng xy ra vn ln i gin tip thng qua EUR.
Vi cch i gin tip qua EUR, lc ny thao tc ln lt l Dng USD mua EUR vi t gi 1$ i c 0.6455 Sau , dng EUR mua JPY vi t gi 1 i c 159.3403 => Suy ra x (/$) = /$ * / = 0.6455 *159.3403 = 102.8543, tc 1$ i c 102.8543
Nu t gi /$ by gi l 100. Ngha l 1$ i c 100. Lc ny bn s lm g, tn dng sai lch ny? u tin bn vay hay lm g c la ($), gi d l 1USD. V bn dng 1USD ny i mua EUR vi t gi 0.6455 /$, sau dng EUR mua JPY vi t gi 159.3403 /, t gi thc ca bn l 102.8543 /$ Do vi 1USD i thng qua EUR mua JPY, bn c c 102.8543 , trong khi bn ch cn tn 100 i li 1USD ban u, ngha l bn li 2.8543.
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Theo t in investopedia.com nh ngha rng y l nghip v mua v bn ng thi mt ti sn to ra li nhun t s khc bit v gi. Ngha l mt giao dch m li nhun c to ra bng cch pht hin s khc bit v gi ca nhng cng c ti chnh tng ng hay y ht nhau, trn cc th trng khc nhau hay cc dng khc nhau. Kinh doanh chnh lch gi l kt qu ca th trng khng hon ho, n cung cp mt k thut m bo rng gi khng b nh sai trm trng so vi gi tr thc trong mt khong thi gian di.
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Ngha l c 1USD bn li c 2.8543 JPY. Nu s USD bn c cng ln th s tin JPY li ca bn nhn c s rt ln. C nh th bn s tr nn rt giu c sau khi bn i s tin li ny ra USD v tr li, gc (nu c).
V qu nhiu ngi nhn thy c hi ny, ngi ta lao vo kim tin, v t lm cho cung nh hn cu, ngi ta nhn ra gi tr thc v gi c iu chnh li gi tr c bn. Nhng thc t c gii hn cho hot ng kinh doanh chnh lch gi khng? V nu c 03 tr ct ny u b nh bi th ngi ta s hoi nghi v tnh hiu qu ca th trng. Bng nhng nghin cu thc nghim trn th trng ngi ta pht hin ra rng c nhng thi im c 03 tr ct ny khng th gii thch c thc t th trng. V i khi s nh gi sai ny khng nhng khng c iu chnh v gi tr c bn m n cn b y i rt xa, nhiu khi cng c xem l nguyn nhn ca cc cuc khng hong ti chnh. Qua hm trn dng nh l thuyt th trng hiu qu khng gii thch kt qu thc nghim trn th trng v dng nh th trng th c th hiu qu nhng con ngi th khng hiu qu, m ch th tham gia sth trng chnh l con ngi. Trc thc t ca cc cuc khng khong ti chnh v s ni lon ca th trng ti chnh ngi ta i hi mt l thuyt hay mt cng trnh nghin cu khc b sung cho th trng hiu qu v trong mt s trng hp nht nh (c trnh by trong Chng II) th th trng hiu qu khng cn pht huy tc dng ca n na. Nm 2002, ln u tin trong lch s gii thng Nobel kinh t c trao cho mt nh tm l hc, thay v trc y ch l cc nh kinh t hc, l Daniel Kahneman v s ng gp ca ng trong kinh t hc hnh vi nht l l thuyt trin vng (prospect theory), vi hp tc gip ca Amos Tversky. Hay tc phm ni ting ca Robert Shiller S m h bt hp l (Irrational Exuberance) (2000) d bo chnh xc s sp ca th trng ti chnh khng lu sau . T hng lot cc nghin cu v hnh vi con ngi trong th trng ti chnh c cng b v cm t ti chnh hnh vi (behaviour finance) c nhc n thng xuyn hn. Vi 03 lun im chnh ca mnh, l thuyt ti chnh hnh vi ch ra nhng gii hn nht nh ca 03 tr ct trong l thuyt th trng hiu qu v ch ra rng khng phi lc no th trng cng hiu qu. 3. Vy ti chnh hnh vi l g? Trc y, cc nh kinh t hc c khuynh hng tc ti chnh thnh mt b mn khoa hc t nhin, m khoa hc t nhin th c gii thch bng cc quy lut, cc nh kh khan, v tch n khi khoa hc x hi. Chnh v th m mt thi gian di, khi nim ti chnh hnh vi c t ngi quan tm n. Vy ti chnh hnh vi l g? Khi no th tc ng t hnh vi ca con ngi nh hng mnh m n vic nh gi sai? N gii thch, b sung cho th trng hiu qu ra sao? L thuyt ti chnh hnh vi, hay ti chnh hnh vi, c th c hiu mt cch dn d l l thuyt s dng cc nghin cu v tm l v hnh vi con ngi nhm l gii cc vn ti chnh.
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Hay hn lm hn: L thuyt ti chnh hnh vi l mt phm tr ca ti chnh, n nghin cu b sung cho nhng l thuyt ti chnh truyn thng (standard therories of finance11) bng vic gii thiu hnh vi tc ng n tin trnh ra quyt nh. Tri ngc vi quan im ca Markowitz v Sharp12, ti chnh hnh vi lin quan n c nhn v cch thc thu nhn, s dng thng tin. Nghin cu l thuyt ti chnh hnh vi gip hiu v d bo nhng dnh lu gia qu trnh ra quyt nh mang tnh tm l vi h thng ti chnh. C th din gii ti chnh hnh vi (Behaviour Finance) thng hnh nh sau thng qua cc yu t chi phi n n nh sau:
Hnh minh ha cc yu t tc ng n ti chnh hnh vi Tm l hc (Psychology): l ngnh khoa hc nghin cu hot ng, tinh thn v t tng ca con ngi (c th l nhng cm xc, ch v hnh ng). Tm l hc cng ch tm n s nh hng ca hot ng th cht, trng thi tm l v cc yu t bn ngoi ln hnh vi v tinh thn ca con ngi X hi hc (Sociology): l khoa hc v cc quy lut v tnh quy lut x hi chung vi c th ca s pht trin v vn hnh ca h thng x hi xc nh v mt lch s; l khoa hc v cc c ch tc ng v cc hnh thc biu hin ca cc quy lut trong cc hot ng ca c nhn, cc nhm x hi, cc giai cp, tn gio, vn ha v cc dn tc. Ti chnh (Finance): l phm tr kinh t, phn nh cc quan h phn phi ca ci x hi di hnh thc gi tr, c th i din bng cc m hnh, l thuyt ti chnh.
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L thuyt ti chnh truyn thng (standard therories of finance) bao gm nhng l thuyt v nguyn l mua bn (arbitrage) ca Miller v Modigliani, cc yu t danh mc ca Markowitz, l thuyt nh gi ca Sharpe, Lintner v Black, l thuyt v nh gi quyn chn ca Black, Scholes v Merton, .. chng u c xem xt trong th trng hiu qu v gii thch c tnh quy chun cao. 12 L mt nh kinh t ngi M ng ot gii Nobel v kinh t nm 1990 (cng vi M.Miller v W.F.Sharp). Cng vic quan trng m ng thc hin trong nhng nm 1950 t nn mng cho hc thuyt hin i v danh mc u t, m m hnh c nhc ti nhiu nht l m hnh CAPM (xem phn ph lc)
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Ba iu kin tn ti ca ti chnh hnh vi? L thuyt th trng hiu qu cho rng bt k s nh gi sai (mispricing) no xy ra trn th trng, th bng 03 tr ct trn ca th trng hiu qu s a gi v ng gi tr thc ca n. Nhng nu iu khng xy ra m xy ra ng thi 03 iu in sau ca ti chnh hnh vi th vic nh gi sai s tr nn trm trng hn thm ch gy ra khng hong ti chnh13: Tn ti hnh vi khng hp l Hnh vi bt hp l mang tnh h thng Gii hn kh nng kinh doanh chnh lch gi
Chnh 03 iu kin ny lm cho l thuyt ti chnh hnh vi (behaviour finance theory) vi nn tng c bn l th trng khng lun lun ng, t ra mt i trng ln i vi l thuyt th trng hiu qu, c s ca cc l thuyt ti chnh c bn trong sut 4, 5 thp k gn y. Cc trng phi v tm l hc v ng dng trong ti chnh hnh vi 14 C rt nhiu cc trng phi nghin cu v tm l hc nhng trong s kt hp ch yu gia tm l hc nhn thc (coginitive psychology) v tm l hc hnh vi (behavioral psychology) gy ra nhng hnh vi khng hp l, cu thnh l thuyt v ti chnh hnh vi. Trng phi chnh Tm l hnh vi Cc hiu ng chnh ng dng trong ti chnh
-Tin vo iu tht ra khng tn ti (magical Do John B.Watson thinking) sng lp nm 1913, nghin cu cc iu -a thch s chc chn (certainty effect) kin khin con ngi -L thuyt trin vng (prospect theory) s hnh ng theo mt cch no
Hiu ng a thch s chc chn v l thuyt trin vng lin quan n cc vn khng a thch ri ro v thch mo him khi b l hn khi ang li trong ti chnh
Tm l nhn thc Do Uric Neiser sng lp nm 1967, nghin cu v cch m suy ngh ca con ngi iu khin hnh vi ca h
-Hi chng t tn (touchy feely syndrome), l y l trng phi ng gp ln cho thuyt nui tic (regret theory) ti chnh, ngoi nhng hiu ng -Mu thun v nhn thc (cognitive cp trn, hiu ng mu thun v nhn thc, b p chi ph b ra, l dissonance) thuyt tic nui gip gii thch v sao -nh ngha hp, tnh ton bt hp l chng ta thng nm gi mi cc khon l v c l lin tc. -B p chi ph b ra Hi chng t tn gii thch chng ta -Qu t tin c xu hng t nh gi cao c phiu -Lch lc trong nhn thc v qu kh m mnh chn u t. (hindsight bias) khng nh qu mc
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Bi vit nghin cu Ti chnh hnh vi Nghin cu ng dng tm l hc vo ti chnh H Quc Tun (2007), trang 10 14 Bi vit nghin cu Ti chnh hnh vi Nghin cu ng dng tm l hc vo ti chnh H Quc Tun (2007), trang 12
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(confirmatory bias)
Hiu ng lch lc trong nhn thc v qu kh hay khng nh qu mc cng ging nh hi chng qu t tin, lm chng ta nhn xt rng mnh c kh nng d on th trung tt y l trng phi c tc ng rt ln n cc l thuyt ti chnh, a ra cc lun im v sao chng ta c th mc sai lm t nhiu tnh hung khc nhau, c bit cc l thuyt phn khng, l thuyt c on sai, v hiu ng t thuyt phc, thuyt phc a ra nhiu gii thch kh d cho cc hiu ng by n v nguyn nhn hin tng nh gi sai ko di
L thuyt cu trc -Hiu ng thuyt phc (persuasion effect) hnh thc (Gestait -Hiu ng t thuyt phc (seff-persuasion) theory) -Lch lc do tnh hung in hnh Do Max Werrtheirmer sng -Xu hng t bo v (ego-defensive attitude) to t 1912, nghin -Hiu ng c on sai (false consensus cu cch chng ta effect) suy din t nhng d liu chng ta nhn -L thuyt phn khng (somatic market theory) c
Phn tm hc (Psycho-analysis) Do Sigmund Freud sng lp u th k 20, nghin cu v cc loi bnh tm thn
Chng ta qu lo lng v vic c th b -Hi chng hoang tng (paranoid personality la hay c th sai lm, hay chng ta qu ch n vic c thnh cng hay disorder) khng, u s nh hng n quyt -Qu ch n bn thn nh ca chng ta trong kinh doanh chng khon. V vy, trng phi (narcissistic personality disorder) ny cng c ng gp trong vic gii -Hi chng phin mun, bi quan (depressed thch hnh vi nh u t, t nhng personality disorder) gii thch v ri lon tnh cch (personality isorder)
Trong cc trng phi tm l gii thch hnh vi ca con ngi y kt hp vi cc ti liu di y, nhm s tp chung vo mt s cc hiu ng hay tm l gip gii thch khi no th tn ti 03 iu kin ca ti chnh hnh vi Cc ngun ti liu chnh dng lm c s l thuyt cho bi Trong bi nhm s dng rt nhiu ti liu khc nhau nghin cu, trong cc ti liu chnh di y c s dng nhiu nht gm: Human Behavior And The Efficiency of The Financial System (2001) Robert J Shiller Behavioral Finance And the change of investor behavior during and after the speculative bubble at the end of the 1990s (2002) Bi vit nghin cu A survey of Behavioral Finance ca Nicolas Barberis, t trang 1071 n trang 1074 Sch Behavioral Finance: Psychology, Decision-Making, and Markets, Ackert & Deaves
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Sch Advance in Behavioral Finance, vol II, Richard H. Thaler, page 79 102 (Part II) ca Andrei Sheleifer v Robert W.Vishny Bi vit nghin cu Ti chnh hnh vi Nghin cu ng dng tm l hc vo ti chnh H Quc Tun -2007 Bi vit nghin cu The noise trader approach to finance Andrei shleifer and Lawrence H.Summers. -1990` Behavioral Finance And the change of investor behavior during and after the speculative bubble at the end of the 1990s, Malena Johnson, Henrik Lindblom & Peter Platan, 2002
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CHNG II BA LUN C V L THUYT TI CHNH HNH VI

2.1 Hnh vi khng hp l C rt nhiu trng phi tm l hc nghin cu v con ngi nh l Tm l hc hnh vi, Tm l hc cu trc, Phn tm hc, Tm l hc nhn vn, Tm l hc nhn thc, Tm l hc hot ng, trong tm l hc hnh vi v tm l hc nhn thc gip a ra nhiu lun im gii thch hnh vi bt hp l ca con ngi trong x hi nht l trong th trng ti chnh. Nhn thc sai lch s dn n hnh vi sai lch, nhng hnh vi sai lch th cha chc do nhn thc sai, m c th do tnh ch quan trong hnh vi ngi thc hin. Tm l hc hnh vi do John Broadus Watson (1878 1958) ngi M ch trng khng m t hay ging gii v cc trng thi thc ca con ngi, m ch cn nghin cu hnh vi ca h l . Hnh vi c quan nim l tng s cc c ng b ngoi c ny sinh p li mt kch thch hay mong mun no ca con ngi Tm l hc nhn thc: i din sng gi cho trng phi ny l Jean Piaget (1896 - 1980). i tng nghin cu ca Tm l hc nhn thc l hot ng nhn thc ca con ngi trong mi quan h vi mi trng, vi c th v no b. Trng phi ny pht hin c nhiu s kin khoa hc c gi tr t ti mt trnh mi nh tri gic, tr nh, t duy, ngn ng.
C rt nhiu cc biu hin v hnh vi sai lch hay bt thng ca con ngi gip gii thch hnh vi ca cc nh u t bt hp l hay phi l trn th trng, nhng trong phn ny chng ta ch tp trung v mt s cc biu hin thng thy nht. 2.1.1 L thuyt trin vng (prospect theory) y l mt l thuyt mi c Daniel Kahneman v Amos Tversky a ra khi cc ng nghin cu thc nghim bng cc m hnh m t v quyt nh c thc hin trong iu kin c mc ri ro v pht trin thnh mt l thuyt mi l thuyt trin vng. y l l thuyt m u ca ti chnh hnh vi v l c s cho nhng l thuyt sau . L thuyt trin vng c coi l m hnh nh gi ha hn nht trong vic gii thch cc nhn t c bn tc ng ln th trng chng khon. Cc nghin cu thc nghim pht trin nn m hnh l thuyt trin vng: Vn 1: Gi s bn phi chn la gia hai quyt nh hin hu sau: Quyt nh 1: P1($240) v P2 (0.25, $1,000)
Chn la P1: chn chn c $240. Hoc P2: tham gia tr chi may ri, nu may mn bn c $1000 (xc sut l 75%), khng may mn bn s khng c g c (xc sut cho trng hp ny l 25%).
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Quyt nh 2: P3(-$750) v P4(0.75, -$1,000)
Chn la P3: chn chn mt $750. Hoc P4 : tham gia tr chi may ri, nu may mn bn khng mt g c (xc sut 25%), khng may th bn b mt $1000. Kt qu nghin cu cho thy: C 84% cu tr li chon P1 i vi quyt nh 1: chn chc chn c $240 ph hp vi s e ngi ri ro. V 87% chn P4 i vi quyt nh 2: chn tham gia tr chi may ri ph hp vi s a thch ri ro, hay tm l lm liu ca cc nh chi bi. Kt lun 1: Con ngi i khi th hin s e ngi ri ro v i khi li th hin s a thch ri ro. Ty thuc vo bn cht ca trin vng m h ngh ti. Vn 2: Quyt nh 1: Gi s bn giu c $300: bn s chn la P5($100) v P6(0.5,$200) Chn P5: bn chc chn c $100+$300=$400. Chn P6: may mn bn c $200+$300=$500 (xc sut 50%), khng may mn bn khng thay i g c, vn c $300 nh lc u (xc sut 50%). Quyt nh 2: Gi s bn giu c $500, bn s chn gia P7(-$100) v P8(0.5, -$200)
Chn P7: bn chc chn cn li $400 (sau khi mt $100). Chn P8: may mn bn gi nguyn s tin ban u $500 (xc sut 50%), khng may mn bn ch cn $300 (tc mt $200). Kt qu nghin cu cho thy: - C 72% chn P5 th hin s e ngi ri ro - V 64% chn P8 th hin s a thch ri ro. Cho thy, thi i vi ri ro khng tng ng vi vic c v mt. Khi c th ngi ta e ngi ri ro hn, cn khi mt th ngi ta thng thch ri ro hn, ngha l s thay i ca mc ti sn h thc s nhn c, chng khng phi gi tr ti sn (mc giu c) cui cng. Con ngi nh gi kt qu da trn mt im tham chiu, im tham chiu ny thng l mc ti sn ban u. Trong khi , l thuyt hu dng k vng gi nh con ngi nh gi kt qu da trn mc giu c cui cng. Kt lun 2: Vic nh gi cc trin vng ca con ngi ph thuc vo vic li hay l so vi mt im tham chiu (reference point). im tham chiu ny thng l mc ti sn ban u (original value).
Vn 3: Vi x bng bao nhiu s cho chng ta thy s khc nhau gia P9(0) v P10(0.5,x,$25) Kt qu nghin cu cho thy: P9 l chc chn. Vi P10, x= $61, ln hn gp hai ln tr tuyt i ca khon mt (-$25).
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Trong mt tr may ri, vi vic mt i $25, i hi phi nhn c $61 thy khng c s khc nhau gia vic chp nhn hay khng chp nhn tr chi may ri. V iu ny cho thy con ngi e ngi s mt mt. Kt lun 3: Con ngi e ngi mt mt (thua l) v mt mt ln hn c, v tm l mt mt thng nng hn ci nhn c. Hnh nh m t s la chn ca con ngi trong l thuyt trin vng15
Trong hnh ny ngi ta nh gi hm gi tr thng qua (i) (ii) (iii) im tham kho hay im tham chiu. (reference point) Hm gi tr lm (concave) min li v li ra (convex) min l im tham chiu ch mang tnh cht tham kho tch hm gi tr ra thnh hai min: min li (gains) v min l (losses)
iu ny ni ln Thi i vi ri ro khng tng ng vi vic c v mt. Tc l, ngi ta c khuynh hng s mt mt (loss aversion) hn trong min li v chp nhn ri ro hay lm liu hn trong min l. Hm gi tr c xc nh di dng li v l lin quan n im tham chiu, ch khng phi di dng gi tr ti sn tuyt i cui cng.
Chng hn nh tnh hung ngi chi bi bc. Khi h li, h thng c khuynh hng ngh chi sm, chc chn c tin. Khi h l, h thng c khuynh hng lm liu hn, chi tip v chp nhn ri ro l hn, vi hi vng tm li c vn.
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Bi vit Prospect Theory: An anlaysis of decision under risk, Kahneman v Tversky (Thng 3/1979), page 279 v A survey of behavioral finance , Nicholas Barberis, 2003, page 1070
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L thuyt trin vng ny c th dn n mt hiu ng, l s tnh ton bt hp l (mental accouting) Tnh ton bt hp l (Mental Accounting) Tnh ton bt hp l l mt phn trong l thuyt trin vng. N m t khuynh hng ca mi ngi trong vic t nhng s kin c th vo nhng tnh ton bt hp l da trn thi quen hi hi, thi quen thin cn (Shiller, 1998). tng chnh di quan im v s tnh ton bt hp l (mental accounting) l ngi ta c khuynh hng phn chia nhng loi tr chi khc nhau vo tng mng/ti khon ring bit v b qua s tng tc gia chng. Chng hn nh16 mt gia nh phn chia tin cho n ung thnh 02 phn ring bit, phn chi ti nh v phn n cui tun ti nh hng, v khng t chng trong mt mi lin h. Khi chi tiu cho n ti nh, h thng khng mua hi sn cao cp (tm hm chng hn) v ngh rng n mc v ch n tht bnh thng; nhng khi n ti nh hng, ngi ny li gi tm hm, thay v n mt ba tht bnh thng (gi tht r hn gi tm hm). V ngi ch nh sai lm ch, h kin quyt tch ri tng khon ring bit, khon no ra khon , khng c dng cho nhau thm ch mt trong hai ci m tin. iu c th dn n s tnh ton sai lm, thay v nht quyt khon no ra khon y, khng c dng ln ln, ci no ht tin ri th thi. Ngi ch nh c th dng an sen chng, chng hn khi khon tin cho chi tiu mua n hng ngy ht, h c th mn tm khon tin t vic dnh cho i nh hng (n tm hm) sau hon tr li tin cho phn tin dnh cho n nh hng ny. Lm cho ng ch ch ng hn trong ngun tin. S tnh ton bt hp l (mental accounting) gip gii thch c rt nhiu hin tng nh la chn ngc vi s thch (preference reversals), tm l s thua l (loss aversion), hiu ng phn b ti sn. Tnh ton bt hp l cn th hin rt r khi ngi ta c tm l thc hin lnh bn ngay khi mang li li nh v tr hon bn ngay khi xut hin nhng khon l nh. Hay c th l gii hiu ng ny bng hiu ng t la di (s rng nu bn m b l s cm thy bn thn ra quyt nh km), v hiu ng tic nui (l bn ri gi ln th sao). Tnh ton bt hp l c th l kt qu ca vic tin tt b nm vo sau tin xu (good money being thrown after bad money) bng vic tip tc hot ng mo him trong tnh trng l vi hi vng rng s hi phc s xy ra vo mt lc no . Tuy nhin, nh hiu ng sau y m tm l lm liu vi ri ro/mt mt ca con ngi c hn ch. l s t iu chnh (self-control) T iu chnh (Self-Control) S t iu chnh lm gim nh tnh ton bt hp l v tm l chp nhn ri ro hn trong min l. Chng hn, bng cch thit lp cc ti khon ring bit v xem xt mc gii hn chi tiu (Thaler v Shefrin, 1981). Glick (1957) ni rng s min cng (relunctance) thc hin ct l cu thnh vn t kim sot (self control), ng nhn nh nhng nh u t chuyn nghip l nhng ngi c xu hng li ca h i tip17. Vn t kim sot l to thnh mt vn thit yu. Vn ca nh u t l th hin s t kim sot ng ti khon ca h ti mc l. Hay nh trng hp ngi ch nh trn, h khng chc c tnh ton ca mnh c hp l hay khng, h s cn nhc v iu chnh li tng s tin h c v mt. 2.1.2 S tri nghim hay thut ton (Heuristics) v xu hng lch lc (Bias)
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Trch lc trong bi vit Ti chnh hnh vi Nghin cu ng dng tm l hc vo ti chnh, H Quc Tun, tp tr Pht trin kinh t thng 07/2007, trang 11 12 17 y l mt trong rt nhiu quan im u t ca cc nh u t. Mt quan im khc nh ct l sm v li nhun tip tc (Cutting losses and riding winners) hay t l gia li nhun v ri ro (risk-reward ratio)
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Lun im 1 th trng hiu qu l th trng khng c tr nh cho rng, th trng s khng ghi nh s vic ngy hm nay phn nh vo gi ca chng khon ngy mai. Nhng thc t th mc gi ngy hm qua vn c ghi nh trong u con ngi, v nhng s vic din ra trong qu kh cng vy. M con ngi b nh hng bi nhiu yu t, tm sinh l, nhn thc, mi trng sng Nhng iu ny, nh hng t nhiu n tm l, nhn thc v hnh vi con ngi. Nhn thc ng dn n hnh vi ng (ngc li th cha chc ng), m nhn thc l mt qu trnh phn nh t duy, tr tu ca con ngi thng qua qu trnh lu di ca s tri nghim cuc sng chnh h. S tri nghim cuc sng mi ngi l khc nhau, v th h c th a ra nhng cch nhn nhn vn khc nhau. Hn na, tm l con ngi cng nh hng nhiu ti quyt nh ca h, ngi vui lc quan th nhn vn theo hng khch quan, thoi mi hn. Ngi c tm trng bun, bi quan th nhn vn theo hng tiu cc hn. Chnh v th, n nh hng n vic nh gi sai v mong mun iu chnh vic nh gi sai ny v ng gi tr ni ti ca mt ti sn no . Di y l nhng nghin cu ca nhm v cc thun ton, s tri nghim hay t nghim (heuristics) v nhng xu hng lch lc (bias). Tri nghim hay thut ton (heuristics) v xu hng lch lc (Bias) Mt s ch trch nhm vo cc m hnh c in trong kinh t v ti chnh l chng thng c xy dng nh th ngi ra quyt nh c mt b nh RAM18 khng gii hn. Mt ngi ra quyt nh nh vy lun xem xt tt c thng tin c lin quan v a ra c s la chn tt nht trong mi tnh hung ca mt qu trnh c gi l ti u ho c rng buc. Nhng con ngi bnh thng l khng hon ho v mt s m hnh i hi qu nhiu thng tin. Vn nghin cu tip theo l cch thc con ngi a ra cc quyt nh trong bi cnh thng tin v thi gian b gii hn trong mt th gii khng chc chn. Vn ny bt u bng cc tho lun v mt s gii hn nht nh trong nhn thc c th dn n nhng k vng khng hp l trong cc m hnh. Nhn thc v b nh khng phi l b lc thng tin chnh xc, v cch m thng tin c trnh by c gi l bi cc ca vn , nh hng nh th no n vic tip nhn thng tin. Bi v nhiu thng tin rt kh x l nn con ngi s dng cc ng tt (shortcut) hoc tri nghim (heuristic) ca chnh mnh cn gi l phng php da vo kinh nghim) a ra nhng quyt nh hp l. a/ S quen thuc v cc tri nghim c lin quan Tip theo s khm ph mt lot cc tri nghim c lin quan khin con ngi th hin s a thch khng lin quan n cc nh gi khch quan. Con ngi thng cm thy an tm vi nhng iu quen thuc (familiar). Con ngi khng thch s m h v thng tm cch n trnh cc ri ro khng c b p. Con ngi c khuynh hng gn lin vi nhng ci g h bit hn l nhng iu xa l.
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RAM l mt khi nim thng thy trong tin hc dng ch mt b nh tm thi cho vic s l cc thng tin.
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Con ngi lng trnh tip nhn nhng sng to mi mc d h bit rng vic tip cn nhng sng to mi ny l ng gi. Tt c nhng iu trn cho thy con ngi c khuynh hng tm kim s an tm.
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S quen thuc (familiar) Con ngi ta thng c khuynh hng phn ng lp li vi nhng tnh hung m h cm thy quen thuc. Bi v, tm l con ngi thng cm thy an tm vi nhng iu quen thuc (familiar) v ght s ri ro v m h. Ri ro v s m h lm cho h khng cn cm gic an tm, v s ng vc bao trm tm tr h. Tt c nhng iu trn cho thy con ngi c khuynh hng tm kim s an tm v m lng vi ci g h bit hn l ci xa l. Chng ta c th thy trong cuc sng, bn sn sng ni chuyn ngy m tt c cc loi t c nhn cho n x hi vi bn b, ngi thn, nhng khi gp ngi l iu s hn ch li, bn tr n co cm hn, tr nn phng th hn. Cn kinh t th sao? Mt v d v khong cch v vn ha v ngn ng: U T
TRONG NC
CNG VN HA NGN NG
NC NGOI
Khi nghin cu x hi hc, ngi ta ch ra rng cng mt quc gia tng vng min khc nhau th tp qun u t khc nhau h thng u t vo chnh cc cng ty ni h sng. Mt v d m Mark Grinblatt v Matti Keloharju chng minh v ngn ng v vn ha. Phn Lan c hai th ting chnh thc l Phn Lan v Thy in, nghin cu ch ra rng, sau khi kim sot cc yu t khc c lin quan, cc nh u t Phn Lan thch u t vo cc cng ty ngn ng chung l ting Phn Lan, cc nh u t Thy in th thch cc cng ty c ngn ng chung l ting Thy in, cn cc cng ty song ng th c xp hng gia hai nhm u t. i vi vn ngn ng cng ty th cng ty ni ting Phn Lan thch CEO l ngi Phn Lan cn vi Cng ty Thy in th ngc li. y l xu hng chung, cc nh u t t chc cng khng th thot khi xu hng ny. y l mt hnh thc ca s quen thuc, i theo li mn, n to nn mt tm l s hu v cm thy c s hu, cm thy thn thuc. N to nn mt li th thng tin, chng ta c th trc tip gim st v tip cn thng tin ni b. Sai lm ch, h b cm s quen thuc ca h li trong phm vi nh, m b qua cc cng ty khc, c th l mi l vi h, nhng n tt hn nhiu cc cng ty quen thuc ca mnh.
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E ngi s m h (ambiguous aversion) Con ngi thng d dng chp nhn tham gia mt cuc chi nu h cm thy am hiu, ngha l, nu h cm thy kh nng chin thng v cm thy e ngi vi s m h. Chip Heath v Amos Tversky tin hnh mt th nghim trong bc u tin l kim tra nhng ngi tham gia bng mt lot cc cu hi kin thc ph thng c nhiu s la chn (c bn la chn). Mi cu hi c nhiu s la chn c nh gi mc nim tin, trong mi la chn c sp xp theo mc chc chn t 100% n 25%. Vi bn cu tr li, mc t tin 25% n thun ch l s suy on. Gi s mt ngi tham gia c mc t tin 60% (tnh trung bnh qua cc cu tr li). Sau ngi ny s c ngh la chn tham gia vo mt trong hai tr chi sau: mt tr chi m phn thng ngu nhin vi xc sut 60% v mt tr chi th hai m s nhn c phn thng nu tr li chnh xc cu hi c la chn ngn nhin. S la chn gia t cc c k nng so vi t cc ngu nhin nh l mt phng trnh ca xc sut tr li ng
Hnh trn cho thy kt qu ca cuc th nghim. Khi mi ngi cm thy h c kh nng chin thng trong cc cu hi, h c khuynh hng la chn mt tr chi c kh nng ginh chin thng hn l mt la chn tr chi ging nh kiu x s, may ri. iu ny c chng minh bi h s tng quan dng gia xc sut tr li ng v t l phn trm la chn loi t cc c kh nng thng (competence bet). Ly trng hp c xc sut t nh gi l 35% lm v d. L do ngi chi a thch hnh thc c cc ngn nhin hn (xc sut c c phn thng l 35%) v khi kh nng hiu bit l khng cao, bn thc s khng bit iu g bn bit v iu g khng bit (ngha l, mc d phng on tt nht ca bn l xc sut 35% bn s tr li ng cu hi, nhng khng chc chn rng y c phi l xc sut ginh c phn thng hay khng). C mt s v d cho thy thi thn trng vi s m h l hnh vi cm xc hn l tri nghim. Tht ra, n phn nh xu hng ca cm xc, c th l s s hi, nh hng n vic la chn trong cc tnh hung c ri ro.
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Mc d mc ch tt nht ca cc nh th nghim, vn c s lo s rng s m h c th gy ra vic bp mo. Tm l e ngi s m h l mt phn trong s quen thuc, ngi ta s s m h khng chc chn vi nhng ci mi, l v khng tm hiu su. Dn n b qua nhng c hi tt, m i khi rng chu ng vi ci sn c, quen thuc, d bit rng n khng cn tt na. Tri nghim a dng ho (diversification heuristic) Tri nghim a dng ho (diversification heuristic) c ngha l con ngi thng t c gng khi ng trc cc la chn khng loi tr ln nhau. Mt hnh vi thng thy cc ba tic buffet l dng th nhiu mn n khc nhau (hoc tt c), vi gi thit bn ch c chn 1 ln cho tt c cc mn n cng lc, ngha l c s gii hn v thi gian. Vic ch chn mt hoc hai loi mn n, to nn ri ro l bn n phi mn khng thch hoc b st mn a thch. V thng ngi ta chn mi mn mt cht. Nhng hnh vi tng t nh vy c pht hin bi Itamar Simonson19, ng rng nhng ngi mua sm thng a thch la chn nhiu mt hng (chng hn nh cc loi sa chua khc nhau) khi h phi mua nhiu sn phm cho tiu dng trong tng lai, so vi trng hp h ch mua mt loi a thch cho mi quyt nh chi tiu. Simonson kt lun rng c nhng yu t nht nh tc ng n cc hnh vi nh trn. u tin, nhiu ngi a thch c nhiu mt hng v nhiu sn phm mi la chn. S thch ny c th hin r hn khi ngi mua mun mua nhiu mt hng. Th hai, nhng s thch trong tng lai bao hm vi s khng chc chn. By gi ti c th thch hn sa chua mm xi hn sa chua du nhng ti khng bit s thch loi no trong tun ti?. Mt l do cui cng cho vic tm kim s a dng ho l lm cho s la chn ca bn tr nn n gin hn, do tit kim thi gian v hn ch mu thun trong quyt nh. Mt v d khc gy bt ng l ca Benartzi v Thaler (2001) khi h ghi nhn qua th nghim khi cho mt s ngi N la chn u t trn s tin tit kim ca h, kt qu l ng pht hin ra rng ngi ta phn b u tin ca mnh cho N la chn (quy tc 1/N). Ban u, h thy rng vic phn b nh vy l ng, v nhiu ngi nhanh chng p dng quy tc 1/N (a dng ho u t kiu n gin nht, phn b theo t l 1/N s tin vo N loi hnh u t) mt cch th ng, trong khi nu phn tch k, h s u t theo nhng quy tc khc (nh chia phn no vo c phiu, phn no vo chng khon thu nhp c nh, phn no cho ti sn t ri ro, phn no cho ti sn nhiu ri ro, t sut sinh li hay tu vo iu kin c th ca th trng, ). Khng thch s thay i v hiu ng coi trng ti sn s hu Vic thch gi nguyn tnh trng hin ti cng xut pht t vic tm kim cm gic an tm. Con ngi khng thch s thay i, lo s rng liu bc i tip theo c tt hn so vi hin ti. Do , con
19
Itamar Simonson l gio s v marketing, ng gc ngi Ireal, ging dy ti trng Stanford University, M
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ngi c khuynh hng tip tc nm gi ci m h ang s hu hn. S qu cao ci mnh ang c, m v tnh h thn tng ha ci mnh c, m chm chp hay ng vc nhng thay i mi. b/ Tnh hung in hnh (representativeness) v cc xu hng lch lc lin quan (relative representativeness) Trong mt s nghin cu ca Amos Tversky v Daniel Kahneman ch ra rng c 3 loi tri nghim gm: tnh hun in hnh (representativeness), s c sn (availability) v neo quyt nh (anchoring) c th dn ti lch hng trong hnh vi con ngi. Mc d cc loi tri nghim ny thng cung cp nhng cu tr li hp l cho cc quyt nh sp ti ca nh u t nhng i khi chng cng lm cho chng ta sai lm. Lch lc do tnh hung in hnh (Representativeness) Lch lc do tnh hung in hnh (Representativeness), thng c din t mt cch n gin l xu hng khng quan tm nhiu n nhng nhn t di hn, m thng t nhiu quan tm n nhng tnh hung in hnh ngn hn trong qu kh. Tversky v Kahneman (1974) a ra mt nh ngha hn lm hn cho tnh hung ny l ngi ta nh gi xc sut xy ra ca nhng s kin trong tng lai da vo mc tng t vi mt tnh hung in hnh no xy ra. im quan trng l ngi ta thng ch quan tm n mt tnh hung in hnh ca mt giai on ngn thay v quan tm n mt mu hnh in hnh trong mt giai on di (iu ny gi l lut s quan st nh, law of small numbers20), ngha l h quy kt nhng mu hnh hay nhng s kin rt him khi xy ra (lut quan st s nh) thnh nhng mu hnh chun cho tt c (lut quan st s ln) v ly lm c s cho h a ra quyt nh. Hay ni cch khc h ang nhm ln p dng lut quan st s ln cho mt mu c s lng nh, m tng rng l lut quan st s ln. Nu sai lm ny din ra trong cc nh u t nh l v tn sut thp th s khng l vn g, nhng nu n lp i lp li vi tn xut nhiu hn, mnh m hn th s thnh mt con s khng khip, nh hng rt ln n th trng. Chng hn cho rng iu kin trong nm 2007 ca nn kinh t Vit Nam tng ng vi giai on ny trong nm 2006 nhiu hn l ging vi nm 2001 th ng nhin s cho rng xc sut gi c phiu cn ln na l cao hn xc xut gi c phiu s gim. Nhng nu nhn cho mt giai on 2000-2006, ngi ta s thy th trng lc ln, lc xung, khng phi ln mi khng ngng, th s c nh gi khc v xc sut tng, gim. Tri nghim sn c (availability heuristics), tc th (recency bias) v ni tri (salience bias) Theo tri nghim c sn (availability heuristics), nhng s kin c gi l d dng nhn thc c cho l d xut hin. Mc d tn sut xut hin v s d nh l c tng quan vi nhau nhng thc t l s d nh b nh hng bi nhiu yu t khc. Bn c th d dng ngh ra c nhiu ch bt u bng k t k hn k t k v tr th ba ca t ? Gi nh rng v bn nhanh chng ngh ra
20
C th tham kho thm trong ti liu The strong law of small number ca Richard K Guy vi 35 mu hnh v d v lut cc s nh v phn phi Poisson trong sch vit bi Ladislaus Bortkiewicz v phn phi Poisson, c xut bn nm 1898. V th, mt s cho rng phn phi Poisson nn c gi l phn phi Bortkiewicz.
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nhiu t bt u bng k t k hn nhng t bt u bng k t k v tr th ba ca t. V kt qu l h cho rng c nhiu t bt u bng k t k ny mc d thc t l c kh t t bt u bng k t k. Nhiu v d kiu nh trn c chng minh trong s sn c ca d liu nh hng n nh gi xc sut bng quan st. Mt v d khc da trn nhng nh gi tnh t k (egocentric). Trong mt nghin cu v cc cp v chng, c ngi chng v ngi v c hi v mc chia s ca h i vi nhng cng vic vt trong gia nh (chng hn nh i ch hoc lau nh). Kt qu l v cho rng mnh ng gp 60% v chng cng cho rng mnh cng chia s 60% cng vic . Khng c g ngc nhin, con ngi c khuynh hng nh li nhng hnh vi ca chnh h tt hn ngi khc v tht d nh li nhng g m chng ta lm hn l nhng g ngi khc lm, nn h thng c lng v nh gi qu mc v bn thn. C hai yu t to nn s c sn (availability). Khi mt vn no xy ra gn y, n chc chn d c nh n hn. Thut ng c s dng l lch lc tc th (recency bias). Khi cc s kin c ngn cch tm thi, s kin xut hin th cui cng l d nh nht. S ni tri cng c tc ng n s tri nghim sn c ( y l thut ng s lch lc ni tri salience bias). Quan st mt v tai nn my bay va mi xy ra. S kin ny xut hin nhiu trn cc phng tin truyn thng v d dng nhn ra v vic kinh hong chnh l s ni tri. Kt qu loan truyn ca cc phng tin truyn thng v s kin ny khin cho mt s ngi, t nht l tm thi, c lng qu mc v kh nng ti din s vic tng t v khin h n trnh i li bng my bay. iu ny cng l gii trong tm l hc bng tr nh c hnh thnh do s lp i, lp li cc s kin trong u con ngi hoc trong cc quan st nhiu ln ca h. S neo vo (Anchoring) S neo vo m t trng hp trong ngi ta s dng mt s hoc gi tr nh mt im khi u, c bit n nh l mt im neo (anchor), v iu chnh thng tin cho n khi t c mt gi tr c th chp nhn c (Epley & Gilovich, 2005). im khc nhau bt u ra cc c tnh khc nhau, m thin v cc gi tr ban u. Chng ti gi hin tng ny l neo u." Tversky v Kahneman (1974). Gi tr ban u t to ra bng cch tham gia xy dng cc vn hay l kt qu ca vic tnh ton mt phn, hoc c th c cung cp bi mt th nghim hoc cc ngun khc bn ngoi. iu chnh xy ra khi s dng mt im neo t to ra. Thng qua nghin cu, cc nh tm l hc kt lun rng mi ngi c xu hng iu chnh khng y v h ngng iu chnh mt khi h t n mt phm vi nht nh cc gi tr chnh ng (Epley, Keysar, Van Boven, & Gilovich, 2004). V vy, c tnh ca h c xu hng nm gn pha neo phm vi ca h. Gregory Northcraft v Magaret Neale tin hnh nghin cu Experts, amateurs, and real estate: An anchoring and adjustment perspective on property pricing decisions (1987) xem c hay khng vic neo quyt nh c th xy ra trong qu trnh nh gi bt ng sn. Hai nhm chuyn gia bt ng sn c la chn ngu nhin v c dn n mt ngi nh vi yu cu nh gi ngi nh .
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H c dn i xem ngi nh v nhn c mt lng thng tin xc nh nh nhau, gm c gi nim yt ca ngi nh. im khc nhau duy nht gia hai nhm ny l nhm I c a gi nim yt vo khong $65,900, trong khi nhm II c a gi nim yt vo khong $83,900. Mc nh gi trung bnh ca nhm I vo khong $67,811, v ca nhm II l khong $75,190. Tnh ton ny c th c tm tt trong bng sau: Gi nim yt v mc nh gi: Gi nim yt thp Mc nh gi thp Gi nim yt cao Mc nh gi cao S tin $65,900 $67,811 $83,900 $75,190
R rng, cc chuyn gia nim yt bt ng sn b neo vo gi nim yt m h c a ra trc . V s tht l thiu xt nu nghin cu v hnh vi bt hp l ca con ngi m chng ta khng nghin cu v chnh tm l con ngi, bi l con ngi l ch th ca th trng. Bn cnh cc yu t v t duy, nhn thc hnh vi th tm l con ngi nh hng rt ln n quyt nh v cc vn v ti chnh. 2.1.3/ Tm l con ngi (Psychological Human) Nh nu phn trn, tm l con ngi cng nh hng nhiu ti quyt nh ca h, ngi vui lc quan th nhn vn theo hng khch quan, thoi mi hn. Ngi c tm trng bun, bi quan th nhn vn theo hng tiu cc hn. Di y l nhng tm l chnh nh hng n vic ra quyt nh ca con ngi. L thuyt tic nui (regret theory) Tm l ca con ngi l cm thy au kh, hi tic v lm sai, thm ch l li sai nh. H cm thy rt hi hn v quyt nh m n gy ra kt qu xu. Nu ai mong rng c th trnh ni au ca s hi hn, h c th thay i hnh vi ca h theo cch m i khi l bt hp l. L thuyt v hi tic c th gip gii thch nhn t m nh u t tr hon bn chng khon ang gim gi tr v thc gic bn chng khon khi n ang tng gi. (Shefrin v Statman, 1985). L thuyt c th c gii thch nh vic m ch nh u t trnh bn chng khon ang gim gi khng to ra li m h lm hay l cch m h trnh cm gic hi hn. H bn chng khon m ang ln khng cm gic hi tic v khng bn n nu gi sau ny gi li gim. Hnh vi ny c ghi nhn khi dng khi lng giao dch bi Ferris, Haugen v Makhija (1988) v odean (1996).
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Tm l s mt mt (loss aversion)21 Theo Kahnemann v Tversky th hm gi tr th hin ng khng cn xng gia gi tr m ngi ta t cho phn nhn c v phn mt i. Nhng bng chng thc nghim ca Kahneman v Tversky ch ra rng gi tr mt i 1$ th nng gp 02 ln gi tr nhn c $1. Hay ngi ta s bun gp i nu mt i 1$ so vi vic nhn c 1$ li. iu ny cng c din t trong hin tng m ngi ta c khuynh hng nh cc nhiu hn khi l, h c khuynh hng nm gi ci l vi hi vng gi s c hi phc. Trong tm l s mt mt l tm l s mt mt thin cn, Samuelson (1963) m phng n bng mt v d khi ng lm mt th nghim nh. ng yu cu ng nghip ca mnh chi mt tr t cc nh hoc l anh ta nhn c 200$ vi xc sut 0.5, hoc l mt 100$ vi xc sut 0.5. Kt qu l ngi ng nghip ny khng tham gia vn ny, nhng anh ta li c mt trm ln. Vi 100 ln c nh vy, tng gi tr thng k vng ca anh ta l 5000$, v hu nh anh ta khng c mt mt bt k khon tin no. Hnh ng nh vy, c Benartzi v Thaler (1995) gi l tm l s mt mt thin cn (myopic loss aversion) . l s kt hp gia tnh nhy cm i vi mt mt hn l nhn c v khuynh hng nh gi thu nhp mt cch thng xuyn. Tm l ca nh u t i khi c th hin trong tm l thin cn, thiu tm nhn, v h nhn nhn s vic t mt pha v b qua iu g c th xy ra, v vy nh u t ch ln k hoch cho mt thi k nm gi no thi (Bodie et all, 2000). Hai gi nh ca tm l s mt mt thin cn (myopic loss aversion) c kim nghim. u tin, nh u t th hin tm l s mt mt thin cn bng vic sn lng chp nhn ri ro nu h nh gi gi tr u t ca h t thng xuyn hn. Th hai, tt c nhng thu nhp tng ln hn ch mt mt, nh u t s chp nhn ri ro nhiu hn. Tm l s mt mt thin cn cng ch ra rng mi ngi c xu hng nhy cm hn vi mt mt ti sn hn gi tr tng ln. Tm l s mt mt (loss aversion) c th gip gii thch xu hng nh u t nm gi chng khon l hn trong khi li c khuynh hng bn chng khon li qu sm. Shefrin v Statman (1985) gi s kin ny l thng bn sm v l chi lu (selling winners too early and riding losers too long) nh l mt hiu ng tm l. Qu t tin (overconfidence) v phn ng thi qu hay bi quan (overreaction or underreaction): Cha kha quan trng ca nhn t hnh vi v c l l khm ph mnh m nht trong tm l hc v nh gi cn hiu th trng bt hon ho (market anomaly) l s t tin thi qu (overconfidence). Mi ngi c khuynh hng thi phng ti nng ca mnh v nh gi thp kh nng xy ra ca mt kt qu xu c th xy ra m h khng kim sot c. S kt hp gia t tin thi qu v tnh lc quan lm cho ngi ta nh gi qu cao kh nng tri thc ca h, nh gi thp ri ro v thi phng kh nng ca h trong vic kim sot tnh hnh, m n dn n vic giao dch qu ln v bong bng u c. S t tin ln trong con ngi anh ta th ri ro v t tin thi qu cng ln (the greater
21
Da ch yu vo Theoretical Framework (chng 3) ca ti liu ca Malena Johnson, Henrik Lindblom & Peter Platan, Behavioral Finance And the change of investor behavior during and after the speculative bubble at the end of the 1990s, 2002
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confidence a person has in himself, the more risk there is of overconfidence). iu ny rt d xy ra khi m ngi ta khng c thng tin tt. Mt iu ng ngc nhin l c mi lin h gia t tin thi qu v ti nng. March v Shapira (1987) ch ra rng nhng nh u t thng nh gi qu cao kh nng thnh cng bi h ngh rng h l chuyn gia. De Bont v Thaler 22(1985) ch ra rng ngi ta c khuynh hng phn ng thi qu i vi nhng thng tin khng mong i hay n tng. Qu t tin c biu hin theo nhiu hnh thc khc nhau. Bn cnh s c lng sai miscalibration, nhiu ngi khng thc t khi ngh rng kh nng v hiu bit ca h th trn trung bnh - better than average effect. o tng kim sot- illusion of control th lm cho ngi ta tin rng h c kh nng kim sot tnh hung tt hn nhng g h c th. Lc quan qu mc- excessive optimisim phn nh cm gic tin rng mi th th tt p hn so vi thc t vn c ca s vic. S c lng sai- miscalibration: L mt khuynh hng ngi ta phng i tm hiu bit ca bn thn- mt ngi c hi nhiu cu hi vi khong tin cy X %, sai s thng k mu s c gim thiu nu s cu hi nhiu th vic c lng ng m ch rng vi khong tin cy xp x X% s cha cu tr li chnh xc cho cc cu tr li . Thc t, t l s ngi a ra khong tin cy cha cu tr li ng thng thp hn X%. Nu mt ngi c hi mt lot nhng cu hi th t l tr li ng thng thp hn mc tin cy X% cho trc. iu ny c dn chng bng phng php kim tra s c lng. V d nh, ngi ta c hi mt cu hi v c cung cp cc cu tr li. c th l la chn ng sai hoc dng nhiu la chn. Tip h c hi v s chc chn i vi cu tr li ca mnh. Nu ai tr li rng mc trung bnh v s chc chn trong cc cu tr li ca mnh khong 70%, trong khi thc t ch t 55% th h s c cho l t tin qu mc. Nhn chung, nhng nghin cu v S c lng ch ra rng khong tin cy m cc c nhn a ra l qu hp dn n nhng cu tr li ng nm trong khong tin cy thng t hn khong tin cy hm . Hiu ng tt hn trung bnh- better than average effect: Trong cc cu hi kho st, rt nhiu ngi nh gi kh nng ca h tt hn trung bnh Mt yu t lm cho ngi ta tin rng kh nng ca bn thn trn mc bnh thng l do nhng nh ngha chnh xc v s thng minh hay nng lc c bit li khng r rng. Theo l t nhin, trong thm tm, con ngi thng ngh d l nhng g lm cho h c v gii nht. V d: Mt nh nghin cu kho st mt mu sinh vin, bo co rng 82% sinh vin t cho l mnh thuc nhm 30% nhng ngi li xe an ton nht. kha cnh ng vin, vic tin rng bn li xe tt hn trung bnh mang n s t tin. kha cnh nhn thc, tiu ch thnh tch d dng in vo tm tr l nhng g m bn gii nht.
22
De Bondt, Werner. Tin s ti trng i hc Wisconsin ti Madison
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o tng kim sot- illusion of control Mt biu hin khc ca t tin thi qu l o tng kim sot (illusion of control). Con ngi ngh rng h c kh nng kim sot tnh hung hn l thc t c th. Hi chng o tng v quyn kim sot tnh hung ny dn n vic nh u t nh gi qu cao nhng c phiu ang mt gi trong danh mc u t ca mnh, hoc n cng lm cho anh ta nhn thy mt xu hng khng tn ti hay chp nhn mua c phiu v d on mc gi ca n s tt trong tng lai, bt chp thc t l gi thay i trong tng lai hon ton khc gi thay i trong qu kh. Qu lc quan- excessive optimisim Qu lc quan hin din khi con ngi nh gi cc xc sut cho cc kt qu thun li/bt li cao hn/thp hn da vo tri nghim lch s hoc nhng phn tch suy lun. C 1 dng c gi l sai lm trong k hoch- planning fallacy: l vic ngi ta thng ngh h c th hon thnh k hoch sm hn thc t vi tt c cc chi ph pht sinh u c tnh n. Trong thc t, chng ta khng th thc hin cc mc tiu c bn trong ngn hn v vic chi vt k hoch lun ph bin. S kt hp gia t tin thi qu v tnh lc quan lm cho ngi ta nh gi qu cao kh nng tri thc ca h, nh gi thp ri ro v thi phng kh nng ca h trong vic kim sot tnh hnh, m n dn n vic giao dch qu ln v bong bng u c. S t tin ln trong con ngi anh ta th ri ro v t tin thi qu cng ln (the greater confidence a person has in himself, the more risk there is of overconfidence)
C phi con ngi u qu t tin nh nhau? Nghin cu ch ra con ngi thng hi qu t tin trong lnh vc chuyn mn ca h Mc thiu t tin th hin qua mt phn ca nhn khu hc nam gii t tin thi qu hn n gii Gio dc c phi l cch tt gim bt s qu t tin?. Ta khng bit th g ngoi tr s thiu hiu bit ca bn thn- Greek Socrates
C phi con ngi lun qu t tin? C phi mi trng nh nhau s a n nhng khuynh hng tm l ging nhau khng? Con ngi c lun qu t tin khng? S qu t tin c thc s l mt trng thi tm l n nh, c th o lng khng?
V l thuyt th cc iu ny c th xy ra, s qu t tin ca cc c nhn c mi tng quan vi nhau khi kt qu l nh nhau vi mi bi kim tra.
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Nhng nhn t ngn cn s iu chnh? Khuynh hng t quy kt: L thuyt v s quy kt nghin cu cch con ngi lm cc quy kt nhn qu. Lch lc t quy kt (self-attribution bias): Quy kt nhng thnh cng hoc kt qu tt p cho kh nng bn than li nhng tht bi cho cc iu kin ngoi tm kim sot. Gia tng s qu t tin
Khuynh hng nhn thc mun (hindsight bias): Khuynh hng a ngi ta n nhng suy ngh l ngi ta bit n t lu ri sau khi c kt qu. Thng xy ra vi nhng s kin c ni dung hm cha cm xc, o c hay ph thuc vo mt qu trnh tng tng trc khi kt qu c bit.
Khuynh hng t xc nhn (confirmation bias):
Khi bn tin vo iu g th bn c gng tm bng chng cng c thm nim tin ca mnh m khng bn tm n nhng bng chng khc. Phn ng gi vi thng tin l thit yu cho hnh vi th trng. Theo nghin cu ca Barberis khm ph ra rng ngi ta c xu hng phn ng hi ht trn gi i vi nhng loi thng tin nh thng bo li nhun v phn ng mnh/thi qu vi gi vi mt chui thng tin tt hay xu. V cng qua thc nghim ngi ta thy rng phn ng hi ht tng quan dng vi nhng loi thng tin mang tnh cht thng bo. Phn ng hi ht ny thng c lin quan n mt tm l bo th (consevatism). Tm l bo th (convervatism) Tm l bo th m ch mt hin tng tm l m ngi ta ng vc bt k thng tin mi v a ra qu nhiu i trng n kh nng xy ra trc c ca cc s kin trong mt tnh hung xy ra trc hoc nh sn mu hnh. Edward (1968) kt lun rng ngi ta ly u t hai n nm quan st lm mt quan st c gi tr lm thay i kin ca anh ta. Theo , ngi ta s chm thay i kin ca mnh hn. V th, ngi ta s mt nhiu thi gian hn trc khi kt lun v khuynh hng xy ra tip theo. Tm l bo th ging nh mt ro cn v hnh, ngn ngi ta thay i quan im/ kin ca mnh trc nhng ci mi. Tm l bo th thng i km vi phn ng thi qu hay hi ht l mt trong nhng nguyn nhn gy ra mt xu hng, ng lc v cc b no . Khi iu kin thay i (thng tin mi v trin vng nn kinh t chng hn) ngi ta thng c xu hng chm phn ng vi nhng thay i , v gn nhn nh ca mnh vi mt tnh hung chung trong mt giai on di hi trc . Tc l khi c tin nn kinh t suy gim, h cho rng kinh t km i ch l tm thi, di hn vn l i ln, m khng
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nhn thy c th tin pht i tn hiu mt chu k suy thoi nhiu nm bt u23. Chng hn, khi c tin nn kinh t suy gim, h cho rng kinh t km i ch l tm thi, di hn vn i ln, m khng nhn thy c th tin pht i tn hiu mt chu k suy thoi nhiu nm bt u 2.2 Hnh vi khng hp l mang tnh h thng Nu ch mt nh u t n l c hnh vi khng hp l, th nh hng ca giao dch ca nh u t ny ln gi c phiu trn th trng l khng ng k (cho d l t chc u t ln th nh hng cng rt hn ch nu ch n c mt mnh). Ch khi hnh vi khng hp l l mang tnh h thng (ngha l mt nhm nhiu nh u t c cng mt hnh vi khng hp l nh nhau) th khi y vic nh gi sai s xut hin v c th bt u ko di. Mt nghin cu ca Rober Shiller24 v hnh vi c tnh u c v x hi hc. ng nhn mnh rng: u t vo cc ti sn mang tnh u c l mt hot ng x hi. Cc nh u t dnh mt phn ng k thi gian rnh ca h bn lun v u t, c sch v u t hay bn tn v nhng thnh cng hay tht bi ca ngi khc trong u t. V th, c th ni nhng quyt nh ca nh u t (bao gm c gi ca ti sn u c) s b nh hng bi tro lu x hi. Thi hay phong cch dng nh s thay i theo nhiu ch ph bin khc nhau: chng hn nh ch v thc phm, qun o, y t hay chnh tr. Nhng thay i trong thi thng xy ra rng ri hn v thng xut hin m khng c bt k l do hp l r rng no. Thi hay phong cch lin quan n u t cng s thay i mt cch t nhin hoc theo phn ng x hi vi mt s s kin c ghi nhn rng ri. Ngi ta ni chung l kh tin bn b, mi quan h ng nghip hn l thng tin i chng. Nhng phng tin truyn thng nh tivi, radio, c kh nng lan truyn thng tin nhanh nhng n vn cha c kh nng chng to ra hnh vi ch ng vn cn hn ch. Giao tip gia cc c nhn vi nhau l mt trong nhng giao tip x hi nht m con ngi c th. Trong s nhng ngi c hi iu g cun ht h u tin khi u t vo mt cng ty, th ch c 6% tr li l bo tr v thi gian. (Shiller v Pound, 1986). Thm ch nu mt ngi c rt nhiu, th s quan tm v hnh ng ca h xut hin tng ng vi giao tip mang tnh c nhn. Ri ro mang tnh h thng ny hm c s tn ti ca hiu ng by n. Tuy nhin hnh vi by n, khc vi cc loi thut ton hay s tri nghim khc ch n dn dt ngi ta lc hng khi h theo khuynh hng chung ca th trng. Tc l hnh ng theo m ng, khi cc nh u t khng tht s c lp na. C ba l do gii thch cho hnh vi ny ca con ngi. Th nht, l p lc tun theo x hi. Hu ht mi ngi u mun ha ng v c chp nhn bi x hi thay v b rung b, do h thng c x theo hnh vi ca m ng. Khi p lc ln ti mc buc phi tun theo th mt ngi thay i quan im ring khng phi ch v
23
Trch nghin cu Ti chnh hnh vi nghin cu ng dng tm l hc vo ti chnh H Quc Tun Tp tr pht trin 2007 24 Trch t Behavioral Finance: Psychology, Decision-Making, and Markets, Ackert & Deaves, page 106-107
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anh ta thc s tin vo quan im m ng m ch l vic thay i quan im ring d hn vic thot ra khi x hi Th hai, l tr tu m ng. Ngay c khi bn tin rng hnh ng ca m ng l sai, bn vn thc hin theo h bi tin rng h c thng tin g m bn cha bit. Khi ngi ta b ng u vi nhng nh gi ca mt nhm ln, h c khuynh hng thay i nhng cu tr li sai ca h. H ngh n gin rng tt c nhng ngi khc khng th sai hay m ng lun ng. Th ba, l p lc t chnh nh u t. H hoi nghi v kh nng ca mnh v c phn qu tin vo kh nng ca m ng. Mu thun trong la chn ca h nn theo m ng hay tch lp vi m ng, kt qu l h thin v m ng. H bn theo tm l by n bi h c an i rng nu mnh mt tin th nhng ngi khc cng s mt.
Hnh vi by n c 02 loi Hnh vi gng p (enforced herd behavior hay not voluntarily). Chng hn, mi ngi cm thy khng th thng c m ng, nn trnh b dm chn m h gng p theo m ng. Hnh vi t nguyn (voluntary): Th hin nhng ngi khn ngoan nht, h tham gia vo hnh vi by n ch yu vi mc ch u c mang tnh c nhn mang tnh li dng, khi h a vo ti khon o trong u mnh quan im/nh gi ca ngi khc, v thm tr h bit vic hnh x trong by n l sai hay khng c c s.
Hnh vi bt hp l, d l hnh vi c nhn hay hnh vi ca nhm, u gy ra s xo trn trong th trng, ngi ta gi hin tng ny l nhng k no lon th trng hay nhng ngi giao dch nhiu (noise traders25). Mt nh u t thiu thng tin ni b, h thng hnh ng mt cch thiu l l da trn li n nh th h ang nm bt thng tin . 2.3 Gii hn kh nng kinh doanh chnh lch gi trn th trng ti chnh26 Nh trnh by phn u, mt trong nhng khi nim nn tng trong ti chnh l kinh doanh chnh lch gi (arbitrage), n c hiu nh l hot ng mua v bn ng thi mt loi ti sn nh nhau trn hai th trng khc nhau nhm thu li nhun t s khc bit v gi (Sharpe and Alexander, 1990). Theo l thuyt th nhng hot ng nh vy yu cu khng gii hn vn v ri
25
L thuyt v Noise traders tm dch l l thuyt v k no lon th trng, l tng c gii thiu bi De Long et al (1990) v nghin cu sau bi Shleifer v Vishny (1997), trong nu ra ri ro ca k no lon th trng lm sai lch gi lm cho vic kinh doanh tr nn kh khn v xu i. 26 Tham kho chnh ti sch Behavioral Finance: Psychology, Decision-Making, and Markets, Ackert & Deaves, page 112 118, Advance in Behavioral Finance, vol II, Richard H. Thaler, page 79 102 (Chapter 2) ca Andrei Sheleifer v Robert W.Vishny v A survey of Behavioral Finance, Chng 18, Nicolas Barberis, page 1056 1064 v bi vit Ti chnh hnh vi Nghin cu ng dng tm l hc vo ti chnh H Quc Tun -2007 v The noise trader approach to finance Andrei shleifer and Lawrence H.Summers. -1990
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ro(27). Khi nh kinh doanh chnh lch gi mua chng khon/ti sn gi thp v bn chnh n th trng c gi cao hn, anh ta s nhn ngay li nhun do hot ng ny. Kinh doanh chnh lch gi ng vai tr quan trng trong vic phn tch th trng chng khon, bi v nh hng ca n lm cho gi chng khon b nh sai tr v gi tr c bn (fundamental value) v gi cho th trng hiu qu. V ti sao trong thc t vn c nhng trng hp nh gi sai, m kinh doanh chnh lch gi khng th a n v gi tr c bn c? Mt gii thch c chp nhn rng ri trong trng phi ti chnh hnh vi l c 2 dng nh gi sai: mt dng l thng xuyn xy ra v c th kinh doanh chnh lch gi c, mt dng l khng th xy ra, ko di v khng th kinh doanh chnh lch gi c (ni mt cch khc, kh m xc nh c khi no mc nh gi sai t ti gii hn trn hay di v iu chnh li). Nu tham gia chnh sa kiu nh gi sai dng 2 th rt d ri vo trng thi tin mt, tt mang, Chng ta cng xem xt v d v gi tr c phiu Ford: Gi s gi tr c bn ca Ford l $20/c phiu. Tng tng rng lc ny nhng nh u t khng khn ngoan (irrational traders) tr nn qu bi quan v trin vng tng lai m m ca Ford, v bn ngay c phiu Ford vi gi $15. Lc ny, theo l thuyt th trng hiu qu (gi tt EMH) th nhng nh u t khn ngoan (Rational traders) thy y l c hi hp dn v gi thp hn gi tr c bn ($20) v mua chng vi mc gi hi. Vi p lc mua c phiu Ford ca cc nh u t khn ngoan s lm cho c phiu Ford tr li gi tr c bn ca n ($20).
Nhng ti chnh hnh vi khng hon ton ng tnh vi quan im ny bi l khi nhng c hi u t hp dn xy ra th tht kh tin rng chng khng b li dng mt cch nhanh chng. V ti chnh hnh vi cho rng khi m s sai lch gi mt cch d di th cc chin lc c thit k iu chnh gi c th phi bao gm c ri ro v chi ph, chnh iu ny lm cho kinh doanh chnh lch gi tr nn km hp dn hn. Do , khng hn mi lc th vic kinh doanh chnh lch gi l khng ri ro v khng tn ph nh quan im ca th trng hiu qu. Kt qu l vic nh gi sai khng c iu chnh nh k vng ban u. Chng ta s tm hiu ngay sau y vi 03 vn chnh c nhiu nh nghin cu ti chnh hnh vi a ra v gii hn kinh doanh chnh lch gi khng gii thch c, lm cho vic nh gi sai tr nn trm trng hn, l ri ro c bn (fundamental risk), chi ph thc hin (implementation costs) v ri ro t nhng nh giao dch nhiu hay ri ro nh u t bt hp l (noise trader risk)
27
Advance in Behavioral Finance, vol II, Richard H. Thaler, page 79
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a/ Ri ro c bn (fundemental risk)28: Theo nghin cu ca Andrei Shleifer and Lawrence H.Summers (1990) th hai ng cho rng c 02 loi ri ro lm cn tr hot ng kinh doanh chnh lch gi, l Ri ro c bn (fundamental risk) v Ri ro v gi khi bn li trong tng lai (the source risk comes from unpredictability of future resale price). Hai loi ri ro ny tm chung li mun m ch tm l ca nhng nh kinh doanh chnh lch gi thua ngay trn chnh quyt nh ca mnh. Vi thng tin hin c, h nhn thy gi chng khon ang qu cao v h bn chng ngay kim li. Nhng sau , li c nhng thng tin mi tt hn, mc k vng v gi cn cao hn na, h chu ng tm l mt mt do chnh quyt nh ban u ca mnh. Tm l s mt mt ny lm cn tr nh kinh doanh chnh lch gi ban u. Dn n kinh doanh chnh lch gi khng xy ra. Theo nghin cu ca Nicholas Barberis (2003) th ng ch ra rng trong tnh hung khi mt ngnh cng nghip b nh gi sai, th ch cn mt chng khon b nh gi sai th dn n vic cc chng khon thuc ngnh cng b nh gi sai. Hay chng khon m mnh ngha l nh gi ng cng cha chc 100% n ng gi tr c bn. b/ Chi ph thc hin (implementation costs) Mt vn cch tip cn ny l hng triu nh u t nh khng hn ai cng c kin thc v thng tin thc hin hot ng kinh doanh chnh lch gi. Chnh v khng c kin thc chuyn su c th xc nh c thi im kinh doanh chnh lch gi nn cc nh u t ny thng gi tin ca mnh cho mt t chc hoc cc c nhn chuyn nghip u t dm h. iu ny lm ny sinh vn v mi quan h i din (agency relationship), pht sinh mt chi ph l chi ph giao dch. Andrei Shleifer v Vishny khi nghin cu v gii hn ca hot ng kinh doanh chnh lch gi ng a ra 01 v d v tri phiu th Bund 29 (loi tri phiu c) giao dch trn hai sn London (Anh) v Frankfurt (c). Gi s rng cc hp ng k hn (futures contracts30) tri phiu ny hon ton ging nhau trong tt c cc iu khon (ngha l chng c th thay th hon ton cho nhau). V gi s tnh hung rng gi hp ng k hn London cao hn gi ti th trng Frankfurt. Phn ng trc vic ny mt nh kinh doanh chnh lch gi s bn hp ng ny ti th trng Anh v mua mt hp ng k hn ti Frankfurt. Vi th trng giao sau (futures market)31, ngi ta phi ng mt khon k qu hay mt khon tin m bo thc hin hp ng (good faith money32). Gi s hp ng London tng ln v hp ng
28
Trch t trang 113-114 sch Behavioral Finance: Psychology, Decision-Making, and Markets, Ackert & Deaves v trang 03 - The noise trader approach to finance Andrei shleifer and Lawrence H.Summers. -1990, page 21 29 C th nghin cu su hn bng s ti ti liu Advance in Behavioral Finance, vol II, Richard H. Thaler, trang 79-80 30 T futures contract cn c ni gi l forward contract hay le contrat terme (Php), ti Vit Nam th thng gi l hp ng k hn v hp ng giao sau. 31 Theo investopedia.com nh ngha th trng giao sau (futures market) l th trng mua bn u gi m trong nhng ngi tham gia mua hoc bn hng ha hay cc hp ng giao sau (futures contracts) nhn hng ha vo mt ngy c th trong tng lai (a specified future date). y, cc bi nghin cu ca cc tc gi ang mun m ch n cc phi sinh ti chnh nh hp ng giao sau (Futures), hp ng quyn chn (Option), hp ng hon chuyn li
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Frankfurt i xung, ng rng bn phi ng thm tin cho c hai th trng duy tr trng thi giao dch. Nu bn c tin b vo duy tr trng thi ca mnh, gi d n thi gian o hn bn vn nhn c tin vi xc sut l 100%. Tuy nhin, nu bn khng cn tin duy tr trng thi na, bn c th hoc phi xoay tin b vo hoc chm dt v tr ca mnh ti mc l. iu ny s nh nhng hn nu l tin ca bn hay bn khng b gii hn v vn, bn phi xoay tin b vo hoc mt tin ngay c khi bn chc chn 100% nhn c mc li khi n hn hp ng. Tuy nhin iu ny khng cn n gin na, nu bn ang qun l tin ca ngi khc. H c quyn thu bn v cng c quyn sa thi bn nu bn khng t c mc k vng ca h. ng gc ca bn, bn nhn vo gi tr tng lai bn nhn c vi xc sut 100% l thng ch cn duy tr trng thi giao dch thi, nhng gc ngi giao tin hay ng ch, h quan tm n ti sn ca mnh ngy cng m i hn n gi tr nhn c trong di hn di hn. V vn l khng ai bit chnh xc khi no vic nh gi sai chm dt (ngn hn hay di hn) v ng ch khng phi np thm tin na?. Nn h khng cn tin tng giao tin cho bn na, kt qu l bn phi rt v th ca mnh trong trng thi l, cng vi b sa thi. Chnh hai iu ny (c ng ch v ngi kinh doanh chnh lch gi) lm cho ngi ta khng cn mn m vi kinh doanh chnh lch gi na. Gi khng c iu chnh nh mong mun ban u. Ngoi ra, trong th trng cn c nghip v mua bn khng chng khon33, iu g s xy ra nu bn khng c c phiu bn? iu ny ng ngha vi vic rng nh kinh doanh chnh lch gi s nhanh chng thot khi v th bn khng ca h trc thi hn, d h khng mun iu . Owen Lamont v Richard Thaler, a ra nghin cu thc nghim ca mnh v hin tng cng ty 3Com v Palm. Ngi ta c th mua trc tip c phiu Plam hoc gin tip mua c phiu 3Com. V t l 1.5 c phiu Palm i c 03 c phiu 3Com. Khi giao dch ln u, Palm c bn vi gi 95.06$ v 3Com bn vi gi $81.81. Lc ny gi 3Com r qu, ngi ta bn Palm v iu qu d thy, nhng tht ng kinh ngc, vic nh gi sai li ko di trong nhiu thng. Thc t, l do ca vic nh gi sai tr nn trm trng hn dng nh l do khng c c phiu Palm bn khng, lm cho cc nh u t khn ngoan khng th tn dng c kinh doanh chnh lch gi. c/ Ri ro t nhng nh u t bt hp l (noise trader risk) Ri ro t nhng nh u t bt hp l c gii thiu bi De Long, Shleifer, Summers v Waldmann (1990) v c nghin cu su hn bi Shleifer v Vishny (1997), l mt ri ro m vic nh gi sai c pht hin bi cc nh kinh doanh chnh lch gi b lm xu i trong ngn hn.
sut (Swap) ngy cng c s dng rng ri trn ton th gii nh l nhng cng c phng chng v ngn chn ri ro. 32 Good faith money l khon tin m ngi mua phi np vo m bo rng anh/ch ta c nh thc hin hp ng. Thng th khon tin ny c tnh theo t l phn trm. Khon tin ny cn c gi l margin. Chng hn nh vi th trng nh ca, ngi mua nh phi np mt ph t cc (a depositing money), khi iu ny c thc hin, th ngi bn bit rng ngi mua s thc hin vic mua bn ny. (theo investopedia.com) 33 Bn khng c th c hiu l giao dch trong nh u t t lnh bn chng khon khi khng c chng khon trong ti khon. lm c iu ny, h phi vay chng khon ca ngi khc khi gi ang cao bn, v khi gi xung thp hoc ht thi hn cho mn th nh u t phi mua li chng khon tr li cho ngi cho mn.
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Gi s th trng ch c 02 nhm ngi tham gia l: Nhm th nht l nhng ngi kinh doanh chnh lch gi (abitrageurs), vi s hiu bit tt v hnh ng khn ngoan. Nhm th hai l nhng ngi hnh ng khng theo quy lut no, tm gi l nh u t bt thng (irrational investors hay noise traders).
Chnh s tn ti nhm ngi th hai ny, c l do h thiu nng lc chuyn mn, nn h phn ng da trn suy tnh c nhn trc cc bin ng ca gi c, v c khuynh hng u t da trn t sut sinh mong i trc mt trong ngn hn, hay xu hng u t theo thng tin ni b, thng tin gy nhiu th trng hn l u t theo gi tr thc, gi tr ni ti ca ti sn. Theo Delong v cc cng s cho rng s xut hin nhng nh u t bt hp l ny lm cn tr nhng nh kinh doanh chnh lch gi, bi h lm cho gi c bin ng mt cch kh on v khng lin quan n dng thng tin hay mt quy lut no. Nhng giao dch mang tnh ngu nhin theo cm tnh ny ca nh u t bt hp l (noise traders) y gi tr ti sn ra xa gi tr c bn ca n, lm cho vic kinh doanh chnh lch gi ca cc nh u t khn ngoan khng th thc hin c v s iu chnh gi khng cn tc dng na, gi c sai lch cng ln ra thay v co hp li. i lc cc nh u t khn ngoan h cn li dng hnh vi ca cc nh u t ny nhm tm kim li nhun thay v mc ch ca h l iu chnh gi v gi c bn ban u. Trn y l nhng tm hiu v l thuyt ti chnh hnh vi, chng ta s tm hiu tip theo cc ng dng ca n trong vic gii thch cc hin tng lin quan n hnh vi con ngi trn th trng chng khon v ng dng trong qun tr doanh nghip.
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CHNG III CC BIU HIN TI CHNH HNH VI TRN TH TRNG CHNG KHON VIT NAM
1. S nt s ra i v pht trin ca th trng chng khon Vit Nam: Sau nhiu nm chun b v ch i , ngy 11-7-1998, Chnh ph k Ngh nh s 48/CP ban hnh v chng khon v TTCK chnh thc khai sinh cho Th trng chng khon Vit Nam ra i. Cng ngy, Chnh ph cng k quyt nh thnh lp Trung tm Giao dch Chng khon t ti TP.HCM v H Ni. Vic chun b cho TTCKVN thc ra do U Ban Chng khon Vit Nam ra i bng Ngh nh 75/CP ngy 28-11-1996. Trung tm Giao dch Chng khon TP.HCM (TTGDCK TP.HCM) c thnh lp theo Quyt nh s 127/1998/Q-TTg ngy 11-7-1998 v chnh thc i vo hot ng thc hin phin giao dch u tin vo ngy 28-7-2000. Sau khi TTGDCK TP. H Ch Minh i vo hot ng c khong 6 nm, n nm 2005, TTGDCK H Ni cng c a vo hot ng. n nay, cc TTGDCK ny c chuyn i thnh cc S Giao dch Chng khon: S Giao dch Chng khon TP. H Ch Minh (HOSE) v S Giao dch Chng khon H Ni (HNX). K t nhng ngy u mi a vo hot ng vi ch vi cng ty nim yt n nay quy m th trng gia tng vt bc. C th tm chia qu trnh pht trin ca th trng chng khon thnh 4 giai on: Giai on 1: 2000- 2005 : Giai on chp chng bit i ca th trng chng khon. S ra i ca th trng chng khon Vit Nam c nh du bng vic a vo vn hnh Trung tm giao dch chng khon Tp.HCM ngy 20/7/2000 v thc hin phin giao dch u tin vo ngy 28/07/2000. thi im lc by gi, ch c hai doanh nghip nim yt hai loi c phiu (REE v SAM) vi s vn 270 t ng v mt s t tri phiu Chnh ph c nim yt giao dch. T cho n 2005, th trng lun trong trng thi g gt, loi tr cn st nm 2001 (ch s VN index cao nht t 571.04 im sau 6 thng u nm nhng ch trong vng cha y 4 thng, t thng 6 n thng 10, cc c phiu nim yt mt gi ti 70% gi tr, ch s VN index st t 571.04 im vo ngy 25/04/2001 xung ch cn khong 200 im vo thng 10/2001. Trong 4 thng hong lon ny, trong khi nhiu nh u t tho chy khi th trng th mt s nh u t khc vn bnh tnh bm tr mua bn v tip tc kim c li nhun, trong 5 nm ch s Vn- index lc cao nht ch c 300 im, mc thp nht xung n 130 im. L do chnh l t hng ha, cc doanh nghip nim yt cng nh, khng ni ting, khng hp dn nh u t. Ngy 8/3/2005 Trung tm giao dch chng khon H Ni (TTGDCKHN) chnh thc i vo hot ng. Giai on tnh ng dn xut hin t nm 2005 khi t l nm gi ca nh u t nc ngoi c nng t 30% ln 49%.
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Trong 5 nm u tin, dng nh th trng khng thc s thu ht c s quan tm ca ng o cng chng v cc din bin tng gim ca th trng cha to ra tc ng x hi m rng c th nh hng ti s vn hnh ca nn kinh t cng nh ti cuc sng ca mi ngi dn. Giai on 2: T nm 2006 n cui nm 2007: Th trng chng khon Vit Nam trong giai on bong bng u c: Chng ta hy xem xt th xem din bin ca th trng chng khon giai on gi l nng nht, k t khi thnh lp, vi nhng bin ng ht sc bt ng m ngay c cc nh nghin cu th trng cng khng th no on trc c.
Mt s d liu v qu trnh pht trin ca th trng chng khon Vit Nam t 2000 n 2007 Thi gian 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Thi gian 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Ti khon nh u t 2.908 8.780 13.607 16.486 21.600 29.065 110.652 312.139 1 2 6 18 25 Cng ty qun l qu Cng ty chng khon 7 8 9 12 13 14 55 78 Vn ha TT (t ng) 986 1.570 2.436 2.370 4.516 9.598 237.276 492.900 Cng ty nim yt 5 10 20 22 26 41 195 253 % GDP 0,28% 0,34% 0,48% 0,39% 0,63% 1,21% 22,70% 40,00%
Gi tr giao dch bnh qun phin (t ng) 1,4 6,85 4,58 12,14 79,55 111,90 401,84 1.562,21
(Ngun: y ban Chng khon)
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Mc thi gian k t u nm 2006 c coi l mang tnh cht pht trin t ph, to cho th trng chng khon Vit Nam mt din mo hon ton mi vi hot ng giao dch si ng ti c 3 sn. S giao dch Tp.HCM, Trung tm giao dch H Ni v th trng OTC. Vi mc tng trng t ti 60% t u n gia nm 2006 th trng chng khon Vit Nam tr thnh im c tc tng trng nhanh th 2 th gii, ch sau Dim-ba-bu. V s bng dy ca th trng non tr ny ngy cng thu ht cc nh u t trong v ngoi nc. Trong khong t gia n cui nm 2006, tnh trng u t vo c phiu nc ta ngy cng mnh m, c nhng nh u t c kin thc v hiu bit ln nhng ngi chi chng khon theo phong tro, qua y TTCK vo tnh trng nng, hin tng bong bng l c tht. S lng cc nh u t mi tham gia th trng ngy cng ng, tnh n cui thng 12/2006, c gn 120,000 ti khon giao dch chng khon c m, trong gn 2,000 ti khon ca nh u t nc ngoi. S ti khon giao dch t hn gp 3 ln nm 2005 v 30 ln so vi 6 nm trc. Cui 2006, cng vi s tng trng mnh ca th trng chng khon theo k vng WTO, dng vn u t gin tip nc ngoi vo nhiu, doanh nghip ng k ln sn hng lot, s lng cng ty chng khon tng ln t bin. Hng ngy c khong 80 100 cng ty c c phiu giao dch. S cng ty nim yt tng gn 5 ln, t 41 cng ty nm 2005 ln ti 195 cng ty. Mc vn ha ca TTCK Vit Nam tng t bin, t 237.276 t ng ( chim 22.7%GDP). Trn th trng phi tp trung, tng khi lng giao dch gp khong 6 ln so vi khi lng giao dch trn sn giao dch chng khon Tp.HCM. Trong vng mt nm, ch s VN- index tng hn 500 im, t hn 300 im cui nm 2005 ln hn 800 im cui 2006. Nm 2006, k lc mi ca ch s VN- index c xc lp mc 809.86 im. Vi HNX- index l n lc chm mc 260 im. Tnh chung, so vi u nm, ch s VN-index c mc tng trng ti 146% v HNX-index ti 170%. y l nhng mc tng m cc th trng trn th gii phi tha nhn l qu n tng. Nm 2007 c xem bc pht trin mnh m nht ca th trng chng khon Vit Nam. u nm 2007 th trng tng trng nhanh v l mt trong nhng th trng ti chnh mi ni c tnh hnh chng khon nng v xut hin hin tng kht chng khon v hin tng ni bong bng khin cho mt s chuyn gia lo ngi s c hin tng o chiu dng vn. H thm ch ngh n bin php kim sot vn. Qa nng l t m cc chuyn gia nhn nh v th trng chng khon Vit Nam u nm 2007, ch s P/E ln ti 38-40 trong khi thng thng ch mc 15-17 ln. Trn th trng chng khon, cc nh u t ngoi gi th trng Vit Nam l Second China chu v nhn xt y l im sng v u t. Hn 330.000 ti khon c m ra so vi hn 110.000 ti khon trong nm ngoi. iu ny th hin mc quan tm ca cng chng u t ln th trng chng khon ngy cng ln. S lng ti khon giao dch ca nh u t nc ngoi gn 7900 ti khon ( 5400 ti khon c nhn v 500 ti khon t chc) tng gp 3 ln so vi nm 2006. Nh u t nc ngoi nm gi t 25-30% c phn ca cc doanh nghip nim yt v chim khong 18% giao dch ton th trng. Gi tr danh mc u t ca nh u t nc ngoi trn th trng
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chnh thc c khong 7.6 t USD (nu tnh c th trng khng chnh thc con s ny t 20 t USD) tng gp 3 ln so vi nm 2006. Nhn li vo u nm 2007, th trng tht s tr nn qu "nng". Dn dp nhng nh u t mi tham gia th trng vi mt nim tin rng s thu c li nhun "khng l", n mc trn nhiu sn giao dch ca cc cng ty chng khon (vn by lu vng khch) vo lc cng tr nn qu ti. nh im ca s "k vng" l VN-Index ln n 1.170,7 im vo ngy 12-3-2007 - mc k lc cho n tn hm nay, tng hn 55% so vi phin cui cng ca nm 2006 (VNIndex mc 751,77 im vo ngy 29-12-2006).
Thi gian 03/01/2006 25/04/2006 20/12/2006 19/01/2007 27/02/2007 12/03/2007 23/4/2007 03/08/2007 31/10/2007
Ch s VNIndex 305,3 632,7 809,9 1.023,1 1.167,4 1.170,7 931,2 892,9 1.106,6
Ngay sau khi ln ti nh vo gia thng 3.2007, th trng nim yt ri vo tnh trng ln xung lnh xnh. Sau mt thi gian i ln, vic "nh nh" ng lot pht hnh thm c phiu pha long gi. Cng vi din bin ny, cn c thm hng lot cc cng ty ln lt ln sn, c bit dn dp vo cui nm, dn n tnh trng cung vt qu cu. l mt trong nhng nguyn nhn lm cho th trng chng khon tt dc vo cc thng tip theo. Ch s VnIndex t 1.170,67 im (12/3/2007) xung cn 892,9 im (03/08/2007) ch s HASTC t trn 450 im (09/3/2007) xung cn 254,3 im (06/8/2007). Th trng c s phc hi trong khong thi gian u thng 9 n cui thng 10/2007. Gi cc c phiu trn sn c xu hng phc hi nhanh chng, c bit l cc m c phiu blue- chip trn c 2 sn u ly li c nhng g mt trong 6 thng gia nm. Trong giai on ny, VN-index c nhng phin giao dch vt ln ngng 1.100 im (1.106,6 im vo ngy 31/10/2007), HNXindex cng gn chm tr li ngng 400 im (393.59 im ngy 01/10/2007). Tuy nhin s phc hi ny khng duy tr c lu, thm ch c du hiu suy gim ch sau 1 phin tng im. Chnh iu ny dn ti vic cc nh u t b ng vn, trong khi ngun cu c xu hng cn kit, th ngun cung vn tip tc gia tng. Tng quan cung cu mt cn bng khin th trng ngy cng tut dc
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c v gi ln khi lng giao dch v gi tr giao dch. VN- index gim xung di ngng 1000 im v ch xoay quanh mc 900 im, vi lng chng khon chuyn nhng rt hn ch. Th trng chng khon TPHCM kt thc phin cui cng ca nm 2007 vi ch s chng khon VNIndex dng li 927,02 im. Con s ny thc ra cng ghi nhn th trng c mt bc tng trng so vi cui nm 2006 vi mc tng 25%. Th nhng, nhng tc ng v mt chnh sch, quan h cung cu... v i km theo l nhng cn "nng, lnh" ca th trng khng khi lm nhng nh u t lo ngi. Tm l bn tho bt u t thi im ny. Cng tng t nh khi mua vo, cc nh u t nh l li x i bn tho c phiu, dn n tnh trng khng hong tha c phiu trn th trng, v cng lm ch s chng khon sa st hn na.V ri, th trng bc vo giai on sp . Giai on 3: T nm 2008 n thng 2 nm 2009: Thc trng th trng sau bong bng Th trng chng khon nm 2007 khp li vi y kch tnh: S ng bng ko di trn th trng OTC; hng lot CP blue-chip mt im; ngun ti chnh b hn ch do Ch th 03 quy nh v t l cm c chng khon ca Ngn hng Nh nc... Nm 2008, VN-Index vn vi xu hng tip tc gim im lin tc, Th trng bt u bc vo thi k st gim nhanh v mnh cn hn c giai on pht trin nng trc . Trong nm 2008, lng cung tip tc c b sung ng k thng qua vic Chnh ph y mnh c phn ha DNNN, c bit l cc doanh nghip quy m ln, kinh doanh hiu qu v vic bn bt c phiu Nh nc trong cc doanh nghip c phn ha, cha k hng lot ngn hng, cng ty chng khon, doanh nghip pht hnh tri phiu, c phiu tng vn iu l, dn n tnh trng th trng chng khon tha hng. Mt s nh u t cht li, cung tng dn. Mt s nh u t ct l v p lc tr gc v li do vay vn kinh doanh chng khon, cung ngy 1 tng. Th trng lin tc st gim. Cc ch s lin tc to y theo k vng ca nh u t. Tuy nhin, y sau li c thp hn y trc. VN Index tt xung mc 256,85 vo ngy 10/12/2008 v y cng l mc y ca nm 2008. VN-Index ng ca vo ngy 31/12/2008 l 315,62 im gim 73,04% so vi nh ca VNIndex (gi ng ca ngy 12/3/2007 vi 1170,67 im) v gim 65,73% so vi ngy u nm 2008. Theo cc chuyn gia nhn nh, nm 2008 th trng chng khon Vit Nam t nht Chu . Th trng chng khon Vit Nam ngy cng tr nn nh b v khng cn c gii u t nc ngoi quan tm nhiu nh trc y. Nm 2008, tnh theo USD, VN-Index st mt 69%, mc gim ti t nht trong s cc th trng chng khon chu . Th trng chng khon nm 2009 m u vi mt phin giao dch c th coi l t nht khi rt t nh u t tham gia giao dch. Nm 2009 li nhng du n quan trng trong lch s 9 nm pht trin ca TTCK. K lc mi, ct mc quan trng ln lt c thit lp: phin giao dch ngy 24/02, VN-Index ri xung mc y 235,5 im, HNX-Index li v di mc 100 im khi xung mc thp nht trong lch s l 78,06 im.
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Thi gian 31/12/2007 23/01/2008 25/03/2008 10/12/2008 31/12/2008 24/02/2009
Ch s VNIndex 927,02 776,7 496,6 256,85 315,6 235,5
Giai on 4: T thng 03/2009 n nay: th trng c s phc hi trong ngn hn sau cc giao dch trn th trng dn tr nn m m Vi nhng n lc kh ln ca Chnh ph, (nh thc hin Chnh sch ti kha, tin t ni lng v a ra gi kch thch kinh t) n thng 3/2009 th trng li bc vo mt cuc tng tc vi s khi mo ca nh u t nc ngoi v cc nh u t t chc, i gia ln trong nc. Th trng lin tc c y ln t y l 235.5 ln n 618.5 ch trong khong thi gian gn 8 thng. K t thng 3-2009, cc nh u t ly li c mt t nim tin khi TTCK c mt thng tng im n tng nht k t thng 11-2008: VN-Index khng ch khi sc v im s m khi lng giao dch cng tng mnh. Tnh n ht ngy 30-6, VN-Index tng 132,67 im (42,03%), HNXIndex tng 44,57 im (42,66%) so vi thi im kt thc nm 2008. y l mt bc tin di ca TTCK trong nc khi VN-Index t tc tng ln th 8 trong tng s 89 ch s chng khon quan trng trn th gii khi tng c 46% so vi thi im u nm 2009. K lc v khi lng giao dch ti sn HOSE c thit lp vo ngy 10/06 vi 101.774.520 c phiu v chng ch qu c chuyn nhng, con s tng t ti HNX l 56.522.170 c phiu. T thng 8 n thng 10, TTCK li tip tc t tng gi th hai y mnh m vi nhiu k lc v gi tr v khi lng giao dch k lc c xc lp. Ngy 22-10, TTCK vn ti nh im ca t sng th 2 l mc 624,10 im. y cng l mc cao nht ca th trng sau 394 phin giao dch k t ngy 14-3-2008. Trong khong thi gian ny, thanh khon lin tc t k lc trn c hai sn. i vi sn HOSE, phin giao dch ngy 23-10 c coi l "siu thanh khon" khi lp k lc cao nht t trc n nay c v khi lng v gi tr giao dch vi hn 136 triu n v c chuyn nhng, tng ng gi tr giao dch ln n 6,414 nghn t ng; sn HNX t k lc vi hn 67,23 triu c phiu c chuyn nhng cng 3,04 nghn t ng c gii ngn. TTCK tng trng mnh m, nm ngoi d on ca gii chuyn gia v tr thnh im sng n tng khi c tc phc hi nhanh nht chu . Th nhng t u nm 2010 th trng bt u xu hng xp xnh i ngang trc s tht vng ca cc nh u t. Th trng chng khon k t u nm 2010 gp nhiu kh khn v khin gii
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u t tht vng. Na u nm 2010, th trng chng khon bin ng trong bin hp 480 - 550 im vi thanh khon mc trung bnh. Nguyn nhn th trng i ngang trong sut 6 thng u nm c nhn nh l bi tm l thn trng ca gii u t cng s khan him ca dng tin. Trong giai on ny, Chnh ph p dng nhng bin php nhm hng dng vn vo lnh vc sn xut v hn ch cp vn cho cc knh nh chng khon, bt ng sn. ng thi, lng c phiu nim yt, c phiu thng tng ln nhanh chng lm cho dng tin trn th trng cng tr nn khan him. Mc d c s phc hi mnh vo cui thng 11/2010 nhng nhn chung giai on ny phn ng cc nh u t bun nhiu hn vui. Sau nhng lc quan nm 2009 th th trng b tr v mt thc ti khc nghit hn. VNI ng ca gim 2% so vi cui nm trc khi cht phin vo 31/12/2010 ti 484,66 im, HNX- index gy tht vng hn nhiu khi ng ca nm ti 114,24 im gim ti 32% so vi cui nm 2009. Kt thc nm 2010 th trng chng khon Vit Nam l mt trong s t th trng khng tng trng chu v chu s suy gim i ngc li vi xu hng chung ca th gii. Th trng chng khon Vit Nam nm 2011 tip tc chng kin lao dc khng phanh ca c hai ch s chnh. Nm 2011 l mt nm kh kh khn ca nn kinh t Vit Nam theo th trng chng khon, cng phn nh r iu ny vi xu hng gim im l xu hng chnh v ch o. Trong c nm, th trng ch c c him hoi hai t hi phc ngn vo cui thng 5 v khong gia thng 8, ton b khong thi gian cn li th trng ch yu i xung trong s chn nn v mt mi ca cc nh u t. Cht phin ngy 30/12/2011, VN Index v HNX Index ln lt ng ca 351,55 v 58,74 im, nh vy so vi u nm 2011 sn H Ch Minh gim mnh 27,46% cn sn H Ni th lao dc n hn 48%. Khng ch chu p lc gim v mt im s, din bin giao dch trn th trng cng ngy cng theo hng trm lng v m m hn, th hin qua s kh kit ca tnh thanh khon, so vi con s ca nm 2010 th gi tr trung bnh mi phin giao dch ca mi sn u st gim mnh n xp x 60%. Th trng chng khon u nm 2012 cng xp xnh i ngang, khng c du hiu lc quan hn.
Bin ng VNI-INDEX t 2000 n 2012
1400 1200 1000
Gi tr
800 600 400 200

07/28/2000 02/23/2001 09/14/2001 03/27/2002 07/30/2002 11/27/2002 04/10/2003 08/12/2003 12/11/2003 04/20/2004 08/19/2004 12/20/2004 04/27/2005 08/26/2005 12/26/2005 05/04/2006 08/31/2006 12/29/2006 05/14/2007 09/11/2007 01/10/2008 05/23/2008 09/23/2008 01/21/2009 06/01/2009 09/29/2009 01/27/2010 06/07/2010 10/06/2010 02/11/2011 06/16/2011 10/14/2011 02/20/2012
Ngy
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2. Cc biu hin ca ti chnh hnh vi trn th trng chng khon Vit Nam: TTCK Vit Nam lc cc k si ng, gi chng khon tng cao nhanh chng; khi th lin tip gim mnh khng ngng trn ton th trng bt k c phiu tt hay xu... Mc d c thi im nh u t c cnh bo chng khon vt qu gi tr tht rt nhiu nhng h vn mua, th trng vn khng ngng si ng. Thm ch cung khng cu. V sao vy? Cc l thuyt, m hnh ca th trng hiu qu, nhng l lun u t da vo ri ro v t sut sinh li dng nh khng gii thch c. L thuyt th trng hiu qu da trn nim tin rng lun tn ti mt c ch iu chnh th trng v trng thi hiu qu , l c ch kinh doanh chnh lch gi. Mt khi tn ti hin tng nh gi sai trn th trng, ngha l gi ca cc sn phm trn th trng ti chnh (c phiu, tri phiu) khng phn nh gi tr hp l (da trn nhng nhn t c bn v ri ro v t sut sinh li) th s tn ti c hi kinh doanh chnh lch gi v nhng nh u t hp l khi tn dng nhng c hi ny ( mua ti sn b nh gi thp, bn ti sn b nh gi qu cao) s gp phn iu chnh th trng v trng thi hp l cn bng. Cn l thuyt ti chnh hnh vi li ch ra rng, c ch iu chnh khng phi lc no cng c th xy ra, ngha l s c nhng trng hp nhng nh u t hp l khng th chin thng nhng nh u t bt hp l v khi th trng s khng hiu qu, hay sai tc xy ra vic nh gi qu cao hay qu thp gi c phiu hay cc loi sn phm ti chnh khc v n din ra lin tc trong mt thi gian di. V vy, vic tm hiu Ti chnh hnh vi, hy vng c th tm ra li gii p cho cc bt thng ca TTCK VN. Trong phn ny, nhm s ng dng mt s l thuyt ti chnh hnh vi c l thuyt v thc tin ti mt s quc gia khc ghi nhn nh mt n lc trong vic i tm li gii thch cho mt s hin tng, hnh vi bt thng trn th trng chng khon Vit Nam. c bit l hin tng bong bng v s sp th trng giai on 2006 2008, s m m trn th trng t 2009 n nay. Th trng chng khon Vit Nam cho thy s xut hin ca mt th bong bng c in. Lch s kinh t th gii chng kin nhiu v n bong bng v s sp ca th trng nh cn st hoa Tulip H Lan (1634-1637), i suy thoi th gii 1929, khng hong 1987,... Ct truyn kh tng t nhau: mt th trng chng khon gi ln v mt mt hng, n v tin t hoc c phiu no khin dn chng thy xu hng tng gi l khng th ngng. Cc nh u t k vng thi qu vo s tng gi ca cc loi hng ha, lng tham khin h x i mua v y gi hng ha vt qu xa so vi gi tr thc tc hnh thnh nn hin tng bong bng gi. Tuy nhin, n khi nhn ra c thc t khng nh mong i, s s hi bt u lm ch h v dn n vic bn tho cc loi hng ha m h ang nm gi, khng cn bit s l bao nhiu hay liu lnh bn ca h c th c thc hin c hay khng trong khi gi vn ang ri thng ng. y c th c xem nh l mt trong nhng nguyn nhn dn n s sp ca th trng, khin n b nhn chm su hn c trc khi c tnh trng bong bng v hu qu l phi mt nhiu thi gian th trng mi c th phc hi tr li. Mi lin h gia bong bng v sp c th so snh vi my v ma. C th c my nhng khng c ma, nhng c ma th chc chn phi c my, bong bng l my v tnh trng sp th trng l ma. Lch s cho thy sp th trng l h qu bt ngun t tnh trng bong bng th trng v, my cng dy - bong bng cng to th ma s cng ln.
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Giai on 1: 2000 2005: th trng cha c s quan tm, hiu bit ca nh u t cn qu t, th trng giao dch u hiu. Giai on 2: Th trng chng khon Vit Nam trong giai on bong bng u c: Mt th trng c xem l vn hnh hiu qu khi gi cc chng khon phn nh ng nhng thng tin kinh t v thng tin doanh nghip nhng thng tin ng v c lin quan n vic nh gi chng khon, nu nh khng c thng tin mi no c a ra th nhng thay i ca gi chng khon s kh nh, hay ni cch khc th trng t xy ra nhng trng hp tng hoc gim mnh. Th nhng th trng VN th hon ton khc, v mt nh tnh, quan st th trng c th thy c nhng phin giao dch ch s VN-Index tng mnh mc d khng c mt thng tin tt no v tnh hnh kinh doanh ca doanh nghip c cng b, v cng c nhiu phin VN-Index gim mnh d khng c thng tin xu no c a ra. Mt khi th trng hi 3 yu t: xut hin hnh vi bt hp l ca nh u t, hiu ng bt hp l mang tnh h thng v gii hn kh nng kinh doanh chnh lch gi th l lc m hin tng gi c phiu (hay rng ra l ti sn ti chnh) b nh gi sai s l ng k v ko di. Khi l thuyt ti chnh truyn thng ( nh l thuyt v ri ro t sut sinh li, th trng hiu qu, kinh doanh chnh lch gi) s b gim hiu qu v l thuyt ti chnh hnh vi s l mt b sung gi tr. - Mt s biu hin ca cc hnh vi khng hp l : Thin lch do c cm vi hi tic: chnh yu t s phi cm thy hi tic, khi nhng ngi chi chng khon xung quanh kim tin mt cch d dng, nhanh chng l mt trong nhng l do to nn mt th hiu nht thi, mt ln sng x vo u t chng khon, mt lng tin ln chy vo th trng chng khon gp phn lm ch s VN-Index tng t bin. Mt vn lin quan n vic s phi hi tic na l cc nh u t khi thy gi chng khon ln qu cao ri nhng vn khng mun bn ra v h s phi tic nui nu bn ri m gi li ln na th sao. Lch lc do tnh hung in hnh: Dng qu kh ngn hn d on cho tng lai xa: nh u t tin tng rng chiu hng tng trng mnh trong qu kh ny s tip tc trong tng lai, d nhiu cnh bo c a ra l gi chng khon vt qu xa gi tr thc. Khi gi c phiu bt u tng lin tc di mt cch di hi th trong u nhiu ngi bt u suy ngh rng li nhun cao t c phiu l vic bnh thng. Nhng nu so vi giai on 2000 2005 ca th trng th chc hn nhng ai kinh doanh c phiu nim yt trong giai on ny s thy s khc bit, mt mc li nhun 30% 50% thi im y l khng bnh thng song trong 1- 2 nm ny li tr nn qu bnh thng. Qu t tin: Cc nh u t khng phn tch v x l ng cc thng tin (h vn cn hn ch v kin thc), ng thi h lun ngh l mnh s t c t sut sinh li tht cao mc d cc c phiu vo thi im c bo ng l siu li nhun v c nguy c n bong bng, v vy h c k vng lch lc v tng lai ca c phiu m h ang nm gi. Nh u t c khuynh hng tin qu nhiu vo nhng gi tr da trn phn on c c ngay sau nhng mu thng tin cng b hoc nhng ngun thng tin ring l, h qa t tin vo cc phn on ca mnh, thm ch cn thch chp ngay ly thng tin r tai hn l nhng cng b thng tin r rng. Hn na, h qu ch trng n nhng thng tin tt ca cc cng ty, trin vng ca nn kinh t m l i nhng thng tin xu iu lm cho h tin tng rng c phiu m h phn tch l nhng c phiu tt. S t tin qu mc ca nh u t vo cc quyt nh ca bn thn, ng thi l s lc quan, m tng phi hin thc ca h chnh l nn tng ca tnh trng tng nng trong giai on ny.
GS.TS Trn Ngc Th
Thin lch do mu thun v nhn thc : nhiu nh u t bit gi c phiu vt qu gi tr thc ca n nhiu ln, nhng vn mua ch bi v nhn thy s kim tin qu d dng trn TTCKVN (cui 2006- u 2007) - c mua l thng - nhng i gia chng khon th li hng chc t ng, thm ch b ni tr, anh nhn vin phi gom gp, vay mn vi chc triu ng lm vn nay c bc trm triu, thm ch bc t thi thc ngi ta lao vo chi chng khon. Mt nh u t pht biu Ai bo TTCK l canh bc th k h nhng chi thng nhiu hn thua th cha ai chu dng. Ph thuc vo kinh nghim hay thut ton: nhiu nh u t tin rng nhng k nng vn c ca mnh c th gip h may mn hn nhng ngi dng cc cng c phn tch la chn mt c phiu tt. Hiu ng t thuyt phc: c th nh u t bit rng h hnh ng mt cch thiu l tr nhng h vn mua bi v h tin rng nhng ngi khc thm ch s tr cao hn. Theo l thuyt ny th bn mua mt ti sn m bn nhn bit c n ang b nh gi cao l bi v bn tin rng s c mt k ngc tr nhiu hn na c th bn khng khn ngoan, nhng u s c mt k khc ngc hn. - Cc hnh vi bt hp l mang tnh h thng: Nu ch mt nh u t n l c hnh vi khng hp l th nh hng ca giao dch ca nh u t ny ln gi c phiu trn th trng l khng ng k. Ch khi hnh vi khng hp l l mang tnh h thng ngha l nhiu nh u t cng c mt hnh vi khng hp l nh nhau th khi y vic nh gi sai s xut hin v c th ko di, to nn hin tng bong bng gi. + Phn ng thi qu: qu k vng v phn khch cc vi vin cnh kinh t v mc sinh li do th trng mang li: Chu trnh phn ng thi qu ca TTCKVN bt ngun t nn kinh t: Din mo ca TTCK VN giai on ny phn nh cn bn din mo ca nn kinh t nc ta. i cng vi s hi nhp ng mng ca nn kinh t l i km mt hiu ng ph, bt u hnh thnh nhng du hiu ca mt qu trnh phn ng thi qu ca nn kinh t. Qu trnh ny c kch hot bng nhng tin tc tt p lin tc khin cho rt nhiu ngi tin tng vo tng lai sng sa ca nn kinh t cng nh ca th trng chng khon Vit Nam. Phn ng thi qu th hin mt s vn nh: Phn ng thi qu ca cc doanh nghip: Nhiu doanh nghip hoc l qa t tin, vi v chp thi c mi gia nhp WTO, s n qua mau chng i, hoc v xem thng, chun b khng y trc cc thch thc ca WTO nhng giai on trc y, u ng lot phn ng thi qu trong hin ti, th hin bng hnh vi huy ng vn t, khin ny sinh nguy c u c qu mc trong nn kinh t. Kinh t ang trong c hi ct cnh, c ngi ang gp thun li ln ngi ang gp kh khn u rt lc quan, nn u dc sc tm cch bc ph, y mnh huy dng vn m rng u t, ti cu trc, m rng lnh vc hot ng. Thm ch, c nhng hnh vi phn ng thi qu rt tiu cc l li dng thi c ny m kim tin nng bng vic dnh rt nhiu thi gian cho u t chng khon, thi gi c phiu, thay v tp trung vo nhng tnh ton mang chin lc lu di. Chng hn nh cc doanh nghip thay v tp trung vo i mi v y mnh hiu qu hot ng trong lnh vc kinh doanh chnh li i m ra cc cng ty chng khon trc thuc, hay vic i huy ng vn v ti v ri sau li u t ngc tr li th trng chng khon
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Phn ng thi qu ca cc nh u t: nh u t c thy doanh nghip huy ng vn bng pht hnh c phiu mi, chia c tc bng c phiu th ly lm mng, y gi c phiu ln na. Cc qu u t trong nc ln nc ngoi, vn c xem l khn ngoan u tin tng vo tng lai nhiu d n m tin vo . Nh vy, nim tin vo th trng l cc k ln. iu ny to nn phn ng thi qu trn TTCK VN. V k vng qu mc vo vin cnh VN gia nhp WTO mang li, trin vng ti sng ca nn kinh t m nh u t pht l i nhng thch thc m cc doanh nghip VN phi i mt. C nhiu c phiu r rng t li nhun n c tc khng c g c bit th m cng c gi rt cao. Bt chp nhiu cnh bo th trng qu nng, thm ch chnh cc t chc cnh bo cng tin vo th trng chng khon. T chuyn gia cho n cc nh u t theo phong tro dng nh u thuc nm lng cu tr li khi c hi nhn nh v trin vng ca th trng chng khon, rng nng th c nng nhng vi nm na th vn s lc quan lm, rng s c iu chnh nhng ch l iu chnh tm thi, iu chnh nh ri cng li ln thi S thng hoa ca TTCK khng phi l khng c c s khi mt lot nhng s kin quan trng a Vit Nam (VN) vo nhm nhng quc gia c th gii ch nht: Mt l tr thnh thnh vin chnh thc ca T chc Thng mi th gii WTO; t chc thnh cng rc r Hi ngh APEC, VN to ra sc ht gh gm i vi nhng nh ch u t ti chnh quc t. Th hai, vic Quc hi M cui cng thng qua vic trao PNTR cho VN gn nh tho g mt ro cn cui cng, nhng then cht trong quan h thng mi v u t gia hai nc. Dng vn u t t M ti bt c nc no cng c ch cao, bi l mt knh rt quan trng vi s lng v cht lng thng l vt tri. y l dng vn u t mang tnh cht quyt nh vi nhiu nc. Th ba, VN va c xp trong top cc nc c mi trng u t tt nht 2006. y li cng l mt tin cc k thun li na cng c nim tin rng ln sng u t FDI v FII s vo VN... Th t, trc thm Hi ngh cc nh ti tr 2006, Ngn hng th gii (WB) nh gi cao k hoch 2006 - 2010 ca Vit Nam, cho l mt chin lc ng tin cy v bn vng v mt ti chnh khuyn khch tng trng. Nhn nh chung l cc nh ti tr quc t s cam kt tip tc duy tr vin tr cho VN. Ngoi ra, vic cc nh u t nc ngoi mua mnh to "cm hng" cho cc nh u t khc trn cc sn... Nhng nh gi, nhng tin tc nu trn l tt v c thc, nhng bn thn chng b thi phng v to ra s k vng qu mc. Lc quan l cn thit nhng ci g tt i qa mc th tr li thnh xu. + Tm l by n: nhiu ngi mua nn mnh cng mua S tham gia chi chng khon theo kiu mt thi thng. Mt b phn ln nh u t tham gia th trng vi nng lc v hiu bit hn ch v th trng, b qua cc yu t c bn ca CP chy theo trin vng li nhun trc mt khi u t vo TTCK. Thnh phn nh u t trn
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TTCK rt a dng, n t mi tng lp trong x hi. Mt s lng ln nhng nh u t gia nhp mi th trng, tranh mua c phiu vi k vng qu ln y gi c phiu tng mnh, bong bng th trng hnh thnh, c phiu c nh gi qu cao. Nhng khon li nhun ln t c trc ca nhng nh u t hin hu trn TTCK Vit Nam li ko ngy cng nhiu nh u t gia nhp mi, gp phn gia tng bong bng gi CP. Nhng khon li nhun m cc nh u t trc t c c vai tr nh mt im tham chiu cho nhng ngi gia nhp tip theo sau, v h chy theo mt vin cnh rng TTCK Vit Nam s cn tip tc gia tng khng c im dng. Mt v d in hnh khc v hnh vi by n trn TTCK Vit Nam l tm l chung ngoi trn th trng. C th nh: Cc nh u t trong nc lun bm st cc nh u t nc ngoi v cho rng cc nh u t nc ngoi l chuyn nghip. Do , chnh cc nh u t nc ngoi tr thnh ngi dn dt th trng. Mt l n gin v cc nh u t nh l ngh rng khng ai di g a gin ngay trn chnh tin ca chnh mnh, do , h b lung lay lm theo cc nh u t dn dt th trng ny. Khi cc nh u t nc ngoi bn nhiu hn mua, th cc nh u t trong nc o o bn ra, v ngc li. Mt minh chng thng thy trn TTCK l nhng ngy giao dch c thng tin l nh u t nc ngoi mua vo t th th trng tng gi. ng thi cc nh u t cn xem s tng trng ca th trng chng khon th gii nh l mt im ta, im tham kho, t h d on s tng trng ca th trng chng khon Vit Nam thng qua vic iu chnh xung quanh im ta ny. Cc nh u t thng tin rng nu th trng chng khon Hoa k m qua xanh th hm nay, hoc chm lm, th mt vi hm na th th trng chng khon Vit Nam cng s tng im, mc d cng cha c mt c s khoa hc no cho mi lin h tt yu gia hai th trng. Vi hiu bit, v nng lc hn ch, trn th trng nhiu thi im xy ra hin tng cc nh u t hnh x theo hng nhng g c kin ngh, d bo trong cc bo co phn tch ca cc t chc ti chnh trn th gii. V d nh vo ngy 29 thng 8, 2007, Ngn hng Hong Kong Thng Hi ti Vit Nam cng b nhn nh v TTCK Vit Nam vo thi im rng gi ca cc c phiu ti th trng Vit Nam ang mc thp sau mt t iu chnh. Cng lc, Ngn hng Citigroup cng a ra bo co phn tch qua nhn nh rng Vit Nam c kh nng vt qua cuc khng hong ti chnh th gii ang lan rng lc . VN-Index lc ny ang mc 900 im, sau khi xut hin nhng bnh lun lc quan v th trng ca hai t chc ti chnh quc t uy tn, th VN-Index lp tc tng vt, t mc xp x 900 im vo cui thng 8, 2007 ln mc 1100 im vo gia thng 10, 2007. Cc nh u t khng lo b sung kin thc v u t theo s hiu bit v k vng ca bn thn m ch chy theo li nhun v theo ui mc tiu tm kim cc thng tin mt v cho l cch u t trn th trng chng khon. Nhng vi th trng Vit Nam, mt th trng mi ni tn ti v s cc thng tin m cha c kim nh v chnh xc, th trng hn lon trong cc dng chy thng tin dn n nh u t d dng i theo con ng c bit l hiu ng by n. Mt l do rt n gin l v khi con ngi ng trc iu khng chc chn ngi ta c khuynh hng lm theo m ng v ngh rng m ng lun ng.
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- Gii hn kh nng kinh doanh chnh lch gi trn th trng: C bng chng no cho thy l kinh doanh chnh lch gi trn TTCK VN b gii hn khng? V nguyn tc, bt k mt minh chng no cho vic nh gi sai lm lin tc ca chng khon l chng c ca kinh doanh chnh lch gi b gii hn: nu kinh doanh chnh lch gi khng b gii hn, s nh gi sai lm ny s nhanh chng bin mt. Chng khon vt qu gi tr tht, nhng nhiu nh u t vn mua. H chp nhn mua vi gi cao v tin chc rng n s tip tc tng, s cn c ngi chp nhn mua li n vi gi cao hn na. Thc t cho thy, mi khi th trng tng hoc gim, hng lot m chng khon s lp tc iu chnh tng, gim ging nhau m t khi c s phn bit c phiu tt, c phiu xu. TTCK VN b xem l pht trin qu nng, sc mua ngy cng ln, gi c phiu ngy cng vt xa gi tr thc. Th nhng r rng khng c h c nhng iu chnh tc thi theo l thuyt kinh doanh chnh lch gi v bong bng gi b thi phng ln rt to. Mi ngi k vng qu ln vo nn kinh t cng nh TTCK nhng li khng lng ht c ri ro m n mang li. Th trng b e da bi nguy c bong bng ngy cng hin r. Mt th trng pht trin nhanh l iu ng mong i, nhng vic cc nh u t k vng v nhng mc sinh li nhiu hn so vi thc t dn n tng trng qu nng nh vy s to ra nhng bin ng bt n. n mt lc no , khi gi bn qu cao khng cn ngi mua. Mt s nh u t cm thy khng an ton bt u bn c phiu. Khi nhiu nh u t cng nhn ra iu ny, s s hi bt u lm ch h v dn n s bn tho cc loi c phiu m h ang nm gi. y c th c xem nh l mt trong nhng nguyn nhn dn n s sp ca th trng. Giai on 3: bong bng u c n tung trc s b ng ca cc nh u t. iu g dn n s st gim dc ng ca th trng nh vy? Xem xt tc ng ca hnh vi ng sau s st gim ny ta thy: Tm l e ngi ri ro, s thua l: s s thua l ca cc nh u t gia tng sau khi thy gi chng khon rt vi phin, v thy gim bt s lng ngi mua, iu ny lm cho h bn tho cc c phiu ang nm gi bt k c phiu tt hay xu gim bt nguy thua l ca mnh. Tm l by n: ngi ngi ct l, nh nh ct l. Khng c cu, cung lin tc tng, th trng st gim lin tc. Mt v d in hnh v tm l by n: gn 2 tun cui thng 8/2008, vic th trng trong nc lao dc v tnh hnh u m ca th trng chng khon th gii tc ng ti tm l cc NT nc ngoi. Cc phin giao dch trong thi gian ny, lng mua vo ca cc NT nc ngoi gim khong 30%-50% so vi trc y, thm vo l mt lot tin n v NT nc ngoi ang rt ra khi th trng Vit Nam lan truyn trong gii u t trong nc, gy tm l hoang mang cho khng t NT. Trong nhiu thi im, ton b th trng u gim im vi bin gn nh kch sn ng lot. Bt u t s rt gi ca nhng c phiu blue chip, tm l bi quan bao trm ton th trng. V kt qu l, bt k c phiu d tnh hnh c bn l tt hay xu u i theo xu hng tut dc ca th trng.
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Nhng nguyn l ti chnh hnh vi cho thy nh u t cng t hiu bit th h cng d b cun theo kin m ng (hiu ng by n). Hnh vi ny l con dao hai li bi chnh nhng nh u t thiu hiu bit l nhng ngi d ri vo tnh trng lo s, hong lon nht. Vic tham gia hay tho chy khi th trng ca mt ngi khng c nh hng qu ln ti thng tin hay cht lng th trng. Tuy nhin chnh c n ang chy theo con b chy nhanh nht s "dm p" v lm v vn th trng. Giai on 4: Th trng c s phc hi ngon mc trong ngn hn:
Th trng chng khon Vit Nam t qu 2/ 2009 c s tng trng tr li sau mt thi gian di st gim su k t cui nm 2007. C th c gii thch bi cc l do hp l nh: S k vng: S tng nhanh chng ny khin nhiu ngi lin tng n hi cui nm 2006, u nm 2007. Nhng nu cch y hn 3 nm, nh u t phn khch bi mt lot thng tin c xem l tt lnh th by gi im ta ca h l g? Ch c 1 cu tr li duy nht: chnh l Nim tin. Chnh sch ti kha, tin t ni lng v gi kch thch kinh t nm 2009 ca Chnh ph l ng lc chnh TTCK phc hi. Nh u t tin vo s phc hi ca nn kinh t, khi m nhng ch s kinh t ni chung khng cn xu. Nm 2009 cng nh du s ln sn ca hng lot doanh nghip (DN) ln nh Eximbank, Bo Vit, Vietcombank v Vietinbank... S gp mt ca cc i gia ny ng ngha vi vic ngun cung trn th trng ngy cng a dng hn. Cc i gia ny u cho sn thnh cng, p ng c mong i ca NT. Gi c phiu cc doanh nghip bo him v ngn hng tng trong mt thi gian kh di v tr thnh nhng c phiu "nng" trn th trng. Nhng ngay sau th trng ngy cng tr nn giao dch m m: Hi chng phin mun, bi quan: yu t suy gim kinh t cng nh s tri st ca th trng khin nh u t tr nn bi quan v ri b th trng. Mt v d c th lit k l cui thng 3-2010, Ngn hng HSBC a ra d bo: NHNN s tng li sut c bn thm 1% trong mt vi tun ti v t l lm pht s ln n 12% vo cui qu II/2010. Lp tc, tm l bi quan xut hin v nhiu nh u t bn tho c phiu, VNIndex rt t 512 xung cn 503 im. Mt trong cc nguyn nhn ln tc ng lm cho nh u t cm thy bi quan hn chnh l tnh trng thanh khon qu km ca TTCK Vit Nam hin nay. Bo th: ch ngha bo th cho rng d khi mi th thay i, ngi ta vn thng c xu hng chm phn ng vi nhng s thay i ny. Chnh v vy m hin nay, nhiu nh u t vn khng tnh to, khng c kh nng nm bt nhng thng tin cn thit v trin vng tng lai ca cc c phiu m ch neo nhng suy ngh ca mnh v mt th trng km hiu qu trong mt thi gian di, h khng mun u t, khng mun giao dch, iu ny lm cho th trng cng tr nn m m hn. Tm l by n: v qu bi quan nn phn ng chung ca hu ht cc nh u t l rt ra khi th trng. Mt cch gii thch thng c nhc n l mc d trnh ca nh u t trong nc lc ny c ci thin rt nhiu, khi phn ln t ra kh am hiu v quan tm n kinh t v m, c
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kh nng c hiu bo co ti chnh, nhng yu t h vn thiu l bn lnh. Mi khi th trng c bin ng mnh, nh u t thng b qua mi nhn nh chy theo tm l m ng. Ngoi ra, nguyn nhn khin th trng m m thi gian gn y, theo cc chuyn gia nhn nh cn l do h qu ca thi k thi k bong bng 2006 - 2007 ca th trng. Lc , nhiu ngi lm tng mnh c th lm c nh mi ngi. Nhng nhng k non yu khng chu c s khc nghit ca th trng nn ln lt bung tay khi th trng i vo thoi tro. Nhn xt chung: - Nh vy, nhn li TTCK VN giai on t 2006 n nay, chng ta s thy chu k ln ngon mc v rt ngon mc rt ging vi tnh trng ca mt s hin tng bong bng v sp th trng trn th gii. V hu qu ko di v nghim trng ca n l khin cho cc nc rt kh khn trong vic quay li thi hong kim v nhng tc ng ko di trong tm l nh u t, trong bt n x hi v cu trc kinh t. T cc kt qu nghin cu t cc th trng trn th gii, ngi ta ch ra rng c mt mu hnh l mt th trng tng gi mnh s duy tr xu th tng mnh trong mt giai on vi nm, sau s n giai on gim gi li vi cng v tc ln hn khi tng v quan trng l giai on c th s ko di, gi l hiu ng thun xu th ngn hn v o ngc xu th di hn. Nhng mu hnh nh th c gii thch do th trng phn ng thi qu khi nhiu tin tt cng b, chm iu chnh khi c tin xu ( kiu cnh bo chng hn), nn vn duy tr nhp tng, nhng n khi n iu chnh v mc hp l th n li ko theo mt giai on gim gi di hn v duy tr mc n nh kh lu. - L thuyt ti chnh hnh vi nhn chung khng phi l mt trng phi tch bit hay i chi li trng phi ti chnh truyn thng. Ti chnh hc hnh vi nghin cu da trn tm l con ngi gii thch nhng bt thng trn th trng ti chnh. Ti chnh hc hnh vi c gng gii thch lm th no v ti sao nhng cm xc v nhn thc sai lch nh hng n quyt nh ca nh u t v t to nn nhng bt thng, v nh trng hp bong bng v s v. Theo mt s nh nghin cu trn th gii th ch c th nhn nh th trng khng hiu qu mt cch tm thi, v khi c mt s lng ln cc nh kinh doanh chnh lch gi tm c cch vn ha trn s khng hiu qu th vic nh gi sai s dn dn bin mt v l thuyt th trng hiu qu vn khng mt i gi tr ca n. - Nhm tin hnh ng dng mt s cc thin lch hnh vi gii thch mt s hin tng, hnh vi ca nh u t trn th trng chng khon Vit Nam trong thi gian qua m l thuyt th trng hiu qu khng gii thch c. Tuy nhin, c th gii thch mt cch c c s khoa hc th cn thit phi c mt nghin cu thc nghim v s tn ti v nh hng ca cc dng thin lch hnh vi i vi th trng chng khon Vit Nam th mi hiu r cc nh u t c th b chi phi bi cc thin lch hnh vi no v n c nh hng ra sao ti vic ra quyt nh u t ca h.
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CHNG IV NG DNG V NH HNG CA TI CHNH HNH VI TRONG QUN TR DOANH NGHIP

1. Mt vi ng dng ca ti chnh hnh vi trong qun tr doanh nghip. Cc nh u t thiu l tr c h thng tc ng n gi khin cho c phn b nh gi sai. Nhng nh qun l c kh nng pht hin ra s nh gi sai v h hnh ng da trn vic nh gi sai ny. Mt vi v d v hot ng qun l tn dng vic nh gi sai: a. Thay i tn cng ty: y l chin lc p ng n gin vi chi ph khng nh k. Nhng nh qun l trong trng hp ny ng vai tr nh nh tip th vi tn cng ty l nhn hiu sn phm. Bng chng thc nghim cho thy mt s ngnh no to ra s kch thch cm xc hp dn hn so vi cc ngnh khc, do khuyn khch u t vo ngnh ny m khng phi ngnh khc. Cc nh qun l t tn cng ty lin quan n ngnh c yu thch to ra cc kch thch cm xc m i khi cng ty khng thc s hot ng trong ngnh. V d: vo cui nhng nm 1990 rt nhiu cc cng ty i tn thnh dotcom trong cn st Internet. Michael Cooper, Orlin Dimitrov v Raghavenda Rau ly mu 147 cng ty thay i tn theo xu hng t 6/1998 T7/1998. Cc doanh nghip ny thy c phn ca h tng gi ngon mc ngay c khi hot ng kinh doanh c bn ca h rt t hoc khng lin quan g n Internet. Cc nh nghin cu ny thy rng tc ng dotcom dn ti t sut sinh li vt tri tch ly trung bnh l 74% trong khong 10 ngy cng b. Chng hn Computer Literacy, Inc bin lun rng vic cng ty i tn thnh fatbrain.com l v khch hng gp kh khn trong vic ghi nh a ch trang web. Gi c phiu tng 33% mt ngy trc cng b khi m tin tc r r trn cc din n Internet. Tuy nhin, sau khi cc cng ty theo nh hng Internet bt u nhn thy s st gim gi ln, cc cng ty ny cng c li nhun bng vic loi b cc tc ng tiu cc lin quan n tn doanh nghip. Gia thng 8/2000 v thng 9/2001 cc cng ty b tn dotcom ca h thy mt hiu ng cng b dng vo khong 70%. b. Pht hnh c phiu v mua li: Khi nhng c phiu c nh gi cao, cc c ng di hn hin hnh c hng li khi ban qun l pht hnh c phn. Pht hnh c phn tng ng vic bn i 1 phn cng ty mc gi cao. Vic lm ny c li cho cc c ng hin hu bng thit hi t cc c ng mi. Ngc li, khi c phiu c nh gi thp, c ng ang nm gi c li khi nh qun l mua li c phn. Nh vy, thi im c la chn pht hnh c phiu ln u ra cng chng (IPO) v pht hnh thm (SEO) cng c cc nh qun l cn nhc v la chn tn dng vic nh gi sai. c. C tc Trong th gii ca th trng hon ho v hiu qu th vic chi tr c tc ca doanh nghip khng c tc ng n gi tr doanh nghip. y chng ta c th ng dng bi hc t lm ly ca th trng hiu qu. Gi nh rng, mt cng ty hin ang chi tr ton b dng tin t do ca n di dng c tc, nhng by gi n ang xem xt vic khng chi tr c tc na. Nu mt nh u t no thc s mong i t sut sinh li 10% trn dng tin m hin ti ang n t c tc, nh u t c th s dng mt qu trnh c bit n nh l t to c tc (home-made dividend). Tc l bn ra c
GS.TS Trn Ngc Th
phiu thay cho nhn c tc bng tin mt v s dng s tin thu c tr cho mnh mt s tin tng ng vi c tc trc . Ngc li, nu mt nh u t nm gi c phiu ang chi tr c tc nhng khng i hi tin mt, h c th ti u t c tc. Trong thc t thu v chi ph giao dch tn ti v nh hng n quyt nh chi tr c tc ca doanh nghip. Tuy nhin, vic chi tr c tc ny ngoi nhng nh hng ca bt hon ho th trng hay cn b c s dng p ng cho s thch th c bit ca nh u t vi c tc. Shefrin v Statman (1984) xut mt s li gii thch lin quan ti hnh vi cho l do ti sao cc nh u t c s thch th i vi c tc. kin u tin ca h da trn khi nim v s t ch. Nhiu ngi c vn v s t ch. Mt mt, chng ta mun chng li s am m ca bn thn, nhng mt khc, chng ta nhanh chng b xi gic rng: ngy hm nay, chng ta t nh rng ngy mai chng ta s khng n qu nhiu na, v ri, vo ngy mai, chng ta li n qu nhiu. i ph vi vn t kim sot ca bn thn, ngi ta thng t ra cc lut l, chng hn nh l "gi ngn hng tin lng ca v, v ch chi tiu t tin lng ca chng". Mt lut l t nhin khc na m ngi ta thng t ra l "ch s dng c tc tiu dng, nhng khng ng ti cc ngun vn trong danh mc u t". Ni cch khc con ngi c th thch c tc, v c tc gip h vt qua vn t kim sot thng qua vic to ra cc quy tc n gin. Mt li gii thch hp l th hai l do mental accounting: bng cch to ra mt s phn chia c tc r rng, cc doanh nghip d dng gip cho cc nh u t tch li nhun khi nhng mt mt v qua gia tng tha dng ca h. thy c iu ny, hy xem xt v d sau: trong mt nm, li nhun ca cng ty gia tng 10$ mt c phn. Cng ty c th chn phng n gi li 10$, nh th th li vn ca c ng s gia tng 10$ mt c phn. Mt phng n khc, l cng ty s chi tr c tc 2$ v gi li 8$, nh vy c ng s nhn c 2$ c tc v 8$ li vn. Theo thuyt k vng th c 2 phng n u mang n li ch 10$ cho c ng. Tuy nhin, trong phng n th 2 c th phn tch rng nh u t nhn c 2$ ri nhn c 8$, iu ny c th a n tha dng cao hn cho nh u t. iu ny cng ng trong trng hp cng ty b thua l 10$, hoc thua l 12$ v tr c tc 2$, nh u t s thch chn phng n sau hn. Cui cng, Shefrin v Statman cho thy rng, bng vic chi tr c tc, cng ty gip cho nh u t trnh phi hi tic. Con ngi thng hi tic nhiu hn v nhng sai lm m h phi chu bi v hnh ng hn l nhng sai lm m h v chu v khng hnh ng. Th xem xt mt cng ty khng chi tr c tc th nh u t phi bn c phn ly tin. Nu gi ca c phn sau tng ln cc nh u t s cm thy hi tic bi v anh ta c th hnh dung mt cch tham lam l nu khng bn cc c phiu ny th anh ta s thu c li nhun nh th no. Nu cng ty ny chi tr c tc v nh u t c tin s dng v khng phi hi tic nhiu v gi c phn tng ln. Shefrin v Statman c gng gii thch ti sao tt c cc cng ty u chi tr c tc. 2. nh hng ca ti chnh hnh vi trong qun tr doanh nghip. Khng ch nhng nh u t thiu l tr, hnh ng bt hp l m ngay c nhng nh qun l cng c nhng hng ng lch lc v dn n nhng quyt nh di mc ti u. Trng tm l tc ng tm l qu t tin, e ngi tht bi dn n cc quyt nh ny. a. Khng t b d n km hiu qu Do s e ngi thua l, con ngi s thc hin cc bc n trnh vic ghi nhn mt s thua l. Cc nh qun l cng khng ngoi l, c nhng bng chng cho thy cc cng b thu nhp m thp l rt t. iu ny xy ra c th do vic qun l n trnh.
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V d, mt doanh nghip c mt d n u t ang c thc hin. Tuy nhin, hot ng u t khng din ra nh d tnh, vn u t cho d n lin tc b y ln cao hn d kin ban u do nguy c d n khng hiu qu l rt ln. Tuy nhin, vn i vi vic t b khin nh qun l phi c s nhn thc v mt sai lm. c bit, trch nhim c nhn cao trong quyt nh u t ban u lm gia tng s chng li vic t b d n. Do , nh qun l khng dm thc hin ct l h c rit bm ly d n mt cch in r v lm lng ph nhiu tin hn. Trong trng hp ny nu c mt nh qun l mi thay th, h c th sn sng t b do khng c s gn kt v cm xc i vi d n. b. nh hng cm xc c nhn n cc la chn. Cm xc c th nh hng ln n quyt nh ca con ngi. V d v mt th nghim xem xt quyt nh ca nh qun l trong nh hng ca cm xc ca Thomas Kida, Kimberley Moreno v James Smith. 114 nh qun l c tham gia iu tra c cho bit h l trng cc b phn quyt nh vic u t hai sn phm. Cc nh qun l tham gia iu tra c m t l nhng ngi ngo mn v h c trong vic tng tc vi ngi khc. - Kch bn t 1 4: + D n 1: kh nng t mc NPV cao hn nhng yu cu phi lm vic vi b phn khc vi mt nh qun l c danh ting mnh v thnh tch (c th xy ra cc tc ng tiu cc) + D n 2: C mc NPV thp hn, tuy nhin lm vic c lp. - Kch bn 5: C 2 d n u c lp khng phi tng tc vi b phn khc. Kt qu cc la chn: Kch bn 1 2 3 4 5 S ngi c hi 27 17 34 15 21 D n 1 22,2% 11,8% 17,6% 20% 76,2% D n 2 77,8% 88,2% 82,4% 80% 23,8%
C th thy, trong khi phn ln nhng ngi tham gia trong kch bn 5 la chn d n c t sut sinh li cao hn, th trong 4 kch bn trn nhng ngi qun l dng nh chu nh hng bi cc cm xc tiu cc m chp nhn mt d n c NPV thp hn. c. Hot ng u t Trong iu kin th trng hon ho v hiu qu, nu mt d n c NPV dng c xc nh, hot ng u t s c tin hnh m khng lin quan n vic ngun vn ni b c sn c hay khng v ngc li doanh nghip sn sng t chi d n km hiu qu cho d ngun vn d tha. Tuy nhin, trong thc t c th xy ra s khc bit tim n gia li ch ca ban qun l v ca c ng dn n vic u t qu mc khi tin mt t do sn c. Bi v cc nh qun l a thch vic xy
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dng ch v cung cp cho h nhng c quyn. S t tin qu mc v nh hng ca tha thi ti chnh c th lm nh qun l lc quan v d n khng hiu qu. Do , nu c ngun vn d tha, h s c xu hng u t qu mc. Tuy nhin, nu h nhn thy rng th trng ang nh gi thp c phiu ca cng ty h s t chi vic pht hnh c phn mi thc hin cc d n u t y trin vng.
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PH LC CC BI VIT NGHIN CU CC CUC KHNG HONG TI CHNH TON CU Ngun: http://saga.vn Bi 1: Bong bng v sp - i khng hong 1929 Khng hong bt ng sn Florida dng nh khng tc ng qu nhiu n nim tin v s k vng ca ngi dn Hp Chng Quc vo mt giai on thnh vng. Th trng chng khon vn c coi l khng c ri ro, khng phi t duy, mi th u "i ln". l l do m rt nhiu ngi ton b s tin tit kim ca mnh vo th trng chng khon m khng cn phi tm hiu xem h thng hot ng th no v cng ty m mnh mua c phiu ang vn hnh ra sao. Vi qu nhiu nh u t hon ton thiu kin thc, th trng cng xut hin rt nhiu nhng mnh khe u t, thm ch c la o. Chuyn vin ngn hng u t, nh mi gii, chuyn vin giao dch v i khi c ngi s hu chng khon hp li vi nhau ko gi chng khon ri thot ra sau khi kim c li. Mnh khe m h thng s dng l kho lo mua i bn li ln nhau mt loi chng khon t c quan tm, mi ln giao dch, h li y gi ln mt cht. Khi cng chng bt u pht hin ra qu trnh giao dch v tng gi u ny, h s quay ra mua loi c phiu ang c lm gi. Khi , nhng ngi lm gi bn c phiu, ang mc gi rt cao, kim li. Vng xoy mua i bn li c lp i lp li, nhng nh u t thiu hiu bit tip tc bn cho nhau, ngi bn c vi gi cao hn gi mua th kim li, ngi mua th k vng c phiu s tip tc tng gi. Nhng nguyn l tm l hnh vi ti chnh cho thy nh u t cng t hiu bit th h cng d b cun theo kin m ng (hiu ng by n). Hnh vi ny l con dao hai li bi chnh nhng nh u t thiu hiu bit l nhng ngi d ri vo tnh trng lo s, hong lon nht. Vic tham gia hay tho chy khi th trng ca mt ngi khng c nh hng qu ln ti thng tin hay cht lng th trng. Tuy nhin chnh c n ang chy theo con b chy nhanh nht s "dm p" v lm v vn th trng Trong sut "cn in" trc khi xy ra cuc i Khng hong, c rt nhiu chuyn gia v nh nghin cu, bao gm c Roger Babson, d bo v mt cuc khng hong nu tnh hnh khng c lm du xung. iu ng bun l vi mi Roger Babson, c n bn nh nghin cu khc li khng nh mt cch m qung, m bo s tng trng mi mi ca th trng chng khon M Vo nhng nm 1920, nn kinh t M vn hnh vi ch trng tr thnh nh bng ca th gii, thnh nh sn xut lng thc, sn xut dng cho ton th gii nhng s mua t nht c th nhng g m phn cn li ca th gii sn xut ra. Tt nhin iu ny to nn trng thi cn cn thng mi rt c li cho M, nhng n khng th tn ti lu. M thit lp nhiu ro cn thng mi bo v hot ng kinh doanh ca nhng doanh nghip M, nhng vn ch nu M khng mun mua hng t i tc Chu u th nhng i tc ly u ra tin mua hng t cc i tc M. Cho n khi m nhng i tc Chu u thm ch khng cn p ng c li sut cho nhng khon vay t nc M, h khng
th mua hng na, th hot ng xut khu ca M st 30% v tip tc st gim trong thi gian sau . y l mt trong nhng yu t gp phn vo cuc i khng hong. Hot ng u c vi quy m ln cng hnh thnh nhiu vo nhng nm 1920. Ch trong nm 1929, c mt lng c phn k lc l 1,124,800,410 c giao dch trn sn NYSE. T u nm 1928 n thng 9 nm 1929, ch s cng nghip Dow Jones tng t 191 im ln 38139 im. Khng mt nh u t no c th b qua mc li nhun nh vy. C th ly v d v cng ty RCA, cng ty ny c c phiu tng t 85 ln 420 ch trong nm 1928, mc d c phiu ny cha tng tr c tc mt ln no. Nguy him hn, vi s tng n nh ca gi c phiu, ngi ta bt u vay mua chng khon. Chng hn nh u t A c th c 10 USD v vay 75 USD t ngi mi gii ca mnh. Nu anh ta bn c phiu khi gi l 420$ thi im mt nm sau, anh ta bin t 10 USD u t ban u thnh 341.25 USD (420 tr 75 v 5% li sut tr cho ngi mi gii). Tc l li sut ln n 3400%. Con s ny cng thc y "cn in" c phiu. Cho n gia nm 1929, tng lng cho vay ang lu hnh ca nhng n v mi gii l hn 7 t USD, ba thng sau con s ny l 8,5 t USD. Li sut thanh ton cho cc khon vay ny cng tng nhanh khng km, t mc 20% vo nm 1929. Cn bng n u c ny hon ton ch da trn nhng nim tin v cn c, v n tri ng vi s sp khng khip vi thng sau cng chnh c s, sp bt ngun t s s hi. Gi bt u gim t thng chn, nhng khi nhn chung nh u t ni chung vn rt lc quan. Nhng nh u c tip tc nhy vo th trng. Ngy th hai, 21/10/1929, gi bt u gim nhanh. Khi lng giao dch ln khng khip. Nh u t v cng hoang mang v s hi. Nhn ra rng gi bt u"ri", ch khng cn tnh c gim bao nhiu, nhiu ngi lao ra bn. iu ny lm cho s sp din ra nhanh hn. Gi c n nh li mt cht vo ngy th ba v th t, nhng cho n Ngy th Nm en Ti, 24/10/1929, mi th u v tan. Hu ht nhng nh u t ln u mt nim tin vo th trng. Tt c nh u t u ng mt im - ht tng ri. Th trng c hi phc li mt cht vo th Su v th By khi mt nhm cc ngn hng ln tham gia tham gia vo vi n lc c gng chn li s sp ca th trng. Nhng vo th hai tun sau, ngy 28, gi tip tc gim 13%. Ngy hm sau, Th Ba en Ti, khi lng ln n 16,4 triu c phn c giao dch. C phiu gim lin tc, thng xuyn khng c ngi mua. Cuc i khng hong 1929 bt u t M nhng tc ng ca n nh hng trn ton th gii. Nhng hot ng kinh t bt u suy gim t ma h nm 1929 v n nm 1933, GDP ca M gim hn 25%, xa i mi thnh qu kinh t t c ca 1/4 th k trc . Sn lng cng nghip b tc ng mnh nht, gim n 50%. Nn kinh t suy thoi lin tc n nm 1933 th bt u ci thin trong vng 4 nm cho n 1937. Sau tip tc c nhng giai on iu chnh ln xung nhng cho n 1940 mi t li mc sn lng kinh t trc suy thoi. Mc tht nghip, khng c thng k chnh thc, nhng c chp nhn chung l vo khong 25% vo nm 1933 v duy tr trn 14% vo nhng nm 1940. Tuy nhin nhng con s ny vn cha phn nh ht s thc bi s lng ngi khng nh, qu tht vng, khng cn ng lc i kim vic v khng c tnh vo tht nghip. Nhng ngi ny thng v cc vng qu t kim sng.
H thng ngn hng cng chng kin nhng con s "hong lon" khi ngi gi tin ua nhau i rt. Nhiu nh bng khng chu c sc p ny, mt s khc buc phi sp nhp, s lng ngn hng ti M gim 35% trong giai on 1929 n 1933. Tc ng trc tip ca cuc i khng hong c th ch nhm vo mt s vng v ngnh c th, tuy nhin tc ng gin tip ca n - suy thoi, gim sn lng, tht nghip,... l nhng tc ng xut hin tt c cc khu vc, ngnh v lnh vc. Nhng ngi nng dn cng phi chp nhn gi nng sn ca h gim trung bnh cn mt na. Mt nhiu nm t thi im Babson cnh bo v sp , nhng nh u t thiu kin thc cui cng cng phi chp nhn. Cuc khng hong - sp c th trng, ko theo 12 nm khng hong trn phm vi ton th gii v ch kt thc khi ngi ta bt u cuc Chin tranh Th gii th 2. Cuc khng hong ny c nh gi l "tai ha ti chnh" ln nht trong lch s nc M. Bn thn s sp ca th trng chng khon, d c quy m ln, vn rt nh so vi hu qu k tip ca mt th trng c m t nh mt "ngha a" v tc ng hy hoi ca cuc khng hong. Bi 2: Khng hong Hoa Tu-lp Thi gian: 1634-1637 a im: H Lan Th trng st t nh xung y - ni nh th bi kh c th dng mt thc o no xc nh chnh xc mc nh v mc y, tuy nhin lch s ghi li rng mc nh, ngi ta c th i mt bng hoa tu-lp ly mt cn nh, nhng khi y, gi mt bng hoa ch bng mt c hnh. Hin tng din ra nh th no? Nm 1593, hoa tu-lp c mang t Th Nh K n H Lan. c trng mi l ca loi hoa ny lm rt nhiu ngi tm kim mua, do gi cng t dn ln. Mt thi gian sau, hoa tu-lp mc phi mt loi virus khng gy hi c tn l th khm, loi virus ny khng gy hi n loi hoa m tc ng lm cho mu sc trn nhng cnh hoa c nh hng ta. S bin i mu sc ny lm cho loi hoa tu-lp vn kh tm cng tr ln khan him. Khi , gi hoa vn cng cao gi cng cao hn ty thuc mc tc ng ca loi virus. Ngi ta bt u giao dch vi nhau bng b c hoa, bt u hnh thnh hin tng u c trn th trng, khi ai cng ngh rng gi s tng khng gii hn. Nhng ngi c nhu cu mua c cy thc (nhng ngi trng hoa) bt u mua v v d tr c tu-lp trong kho cho ma hoa sau. Vic ny cng lm gim cung v tng cu cng nh tnh khan him. Ngay sau , gi c tu-lp tng rt nhanh v rt cao, ngi ta dng t, tin tit kim v bt c ti sn no khc c th chuyn thnh tin mt mua c hoa tu-lp. Nhiu ngi H Lan khi qu quyt rng h s c th bn c lng c m h thu mua v cho nhng ngi ngoi quc t thng tin v km may mn, qua c th mang li lng li nhun khng l. Gi tu-lp khi tng gp 20 ln sau ch mt thng.
Qu bong bng phnh ra to nht vo giai on 1936-1937. Li bun Tu-lp l nhng ngi kim li nhanh chng v n gin nht. Mt li bun tho tay c th kim 60.000 florin (tin H Lan) trong mt thng - tng ng xp x 61,710 la M. Vi li nhun khng l nh th, chnh quyn hon ton bt lc v khng th ngn chn c hot ng giao dch no nhit. Ai cng thy gi khng phn nh c gi tr thc mi c tu-lp. Hin tng bong bng bt u xut hin trn nhiu th trng ni c hot ng u c tu-lp, nhng ngi cn trng nht bt u tnh n vic bn v cm chc li nhun cho mnh. Hu qu ca vic ny l mt hiu ng domino khng khip vi mc gim nhanh chng mt trong iu kin tt c u bn nhng rt t ngi mua. Gi gim trm trng cng lm con ngi ta hong lon v bn bt k l bao nhiu. Nhiu giao dch b ph v, ngi ta bt u hiu ra rng h dng nh ca mnh i ly mt mu cy c. Hoang mang v hn lon l tnh cnh chung din ra trn t nc H Lan. Chnh ph c gng tip cn nhm hn ch v lm chm li hin tng bng cch ngh thc hin nhng giao dch ang b t chi thc hin ti mc 10% mnh gi. Tuy nhin kt qu l th trng cng xu hn, nhng bin php tr ln v ngha. Ngay c nhng ngi thot ra v ct gi c li nhun cho ring mnh cng chu tc ng t t suy thoi kinh t din ra sau Tc ng ca cuc khng hong Tu-lp lm cho H Lan tin hnh cm ton b cc hot ng u c trong u t sut mt thi gian di Bi 3: Bong bng v sp - Sp th trng chng khon 1987 Mt s sp c d bo trc nhng khng th gii thch liu c phi do chnh hot ng ca y Ban Chng Khon M (SEC), c thnh lp theo yu cu ca Tng thng Franklin D. Roosevelt sau khi kt thc i khng hong. SEC c hnh thnh nhm ngn chn nhng kh nng sp th trng c th xy ra, ngn chn nhng hnh vi la o i vi th trng chng khon. SEC hot ng rt tt, dn dn ly c lng tin nh u t v h bt u quay tr li vi th trng vo nhng nm 60. SEC tuy c th gip nh u t tip cn c nhng thng tin cn thit nhng khng th gip nh u t suy ngh. Vo nhng nm u thp k 60 v 70, nh u t rt t quan tm n gi tr doanh nghip m h quan tm n hnh nh, s tip cn ca doanh nghip n cng chng, n nhng kin khng chnh thc v doanh nghip. Nh u t quan tm n nhng mu qung co, m t mc thi qu v hot ng kinh doanh ca doanh nghip, chng hn mu tin ngn v mt cng ty Synergy Space-Bovubetribucs no va to ra mt th sng a ln mt trng: "Synergy Space-Bovubetribucs forges a new frontier in the introduction of organic entities into the ecosystem of the lunar-scape in order to promote greater synergy. This triumphant new paradigm will be enacted through a leveraged advantaged momentum initiator." Cho d nhng dng m t ngn gn v ht sc m m, nh u t vn "m qung" t nim tin, vi h n dng nh biu hin ca nhng tng cao siu. SEC yu cu nhng cng ty ny phi thng bo r rng, chnh xc rng bn thn nhng cng ty ny khng h c ti sn m bo hay thm ch khng c mt c may no thc hin nhng tng , nhng nh u t vn c tin rng tim nng ca nhng cng ty ny l khng c gii hn. Tm l "tng gi", ngoi tr mt s v v n, sp tim, vn cn tip tc n thp k 80. 4
Thp k 80 cng l giai on m nhng hot ng ti chnh din ra cc k si ng, c bit l s hnh thnh ca nhiu tp on ln, hot ng sp nhp, thu tm. Thu tm v sp nhp din ra khp mi ni, mi cp , nhiu thng v c p dng k thut "Mua li da trn vay n" thng qua pht hnh nhng loi tri phiu cht lng thp cho nh u t. p dng cng thc ton mang tn "nn kinh t mi", tng trng ca nhng doanh nghip M sau sp nhp c tnh theo cp s nhn ch khng cn n gin l cng hai doanh nghip hp nht vi nhau na. SEC khng cn kh nng hn ch nhng tp on v nhng t pht hnh ra cng chng m m, th trng, do , tip tc tng trng lin tc trong sut thp nin 80. Thm ch c n nhng nh u t t chc v qu u t, nhng n v thng tin tng v nhng tnh ton, phn tch trn cc cng c giao dch, cng bt u gn mnh vi cu thn ch "nu mt c phiu lu khng tng gi, hy tm mt c phiu khc." Vo u nm 1987, SEC y mnh mt cch vi vng v theo nhiu chuyn gia l thiu tnh ton, hot ng iu tra cc giao dch ni gin. vo thi im m hu ht nh u t bt u quan tm n kh nng Wall Street s cn phi xem xt li chnh s tng trng hin ti ca n, th hot ng iu tra ca SEC to ln khng kh lo lng i vi nh u t. Nhiu ngi bt u quyt nh ri khi "cuc chi m m" ca vi c phiu chuyn sang nhng hot ng u t n nh hn, nh tri phiu. Ngy th hai, 19/10/1987 - ngy th hai en ti - xy ra mt "cuc di c tp th" ra khi th trng c phiu, n tc ng n h thng qun l giao dch ca NYSE. H thng ny t t cc ngng dng l (stop loss) cho c phiu v chuyn lnh ti h thng DOT ca NYSE. Lng bn qu ln c chuyn sang tc th lm qu ti h thng my in ca DOT, lm tr ton h thng v nh u t, mi cp (c nhn hay t chc) ri vo tnh trng mt thng tin.
DOT - Designated Order Turnaround - l h thng my tnh in t nhm h tr hiu qu giao dch lnh bng cch chuyn cc lnh vi chng khon nim yt trc tip, khng i qua nhng nh mi gii, ti cc chuyn gia trn sn ca NYSE. H thng ny thng c p dng vi nhng lnh c quy m nh, lnh gii hn v lnh giao dch theo chng trnh.
Khng hong ly truyn theo m ng v nh u t bt u ra bn c phiu khng cn bit s l bao nhiu hay liu lnh ca h c th c thc hin sm hay mun trong khi gi ang ri thng ng. Ch s Dow tt 508,32 im (22,6%) v 500 t USD bin mt. Th trng cc quc gia khc trn ton th gii cng sp theo cng mt kch bn. Thm ch c mt s nh mi gii v qu nhiu khch hng, khng th nghe in thoi ca mt vi khch hng gi n, b nh u t n e da, thm ch bn, b git.
May mn l v Ch tch mi ca FED, Alan Greenspan, ng gp rt ln trong vic cho li nn kinh t trnh khi mt cuc khng hong na cho nn kinh t M bng cch h tr cc ngn hng thng mi v ngn hng u t khng b v n. Th trng hi phc, NYSE cng tin hnh tinh chnh mt s im nh trong h thng giao dch bao gm c h thng ngt giao dch khi th trng tt n mt mc nht nh t trc. Bi 4: Bong bng v sp - Bong bng South Sea Bi ny ti xin gii thiu v "Bong bng South Sea" Thi gian: 1711-1720 a im: Vng Quc Anh M t ngn gn: Gi c phiu cng ty South Sea gim t nh - khi c giao dch vi gi 1.000 Bng Anh, y ca th trng, gi c phiu ca cng ty ny khng cn mt cht gi tr no vo na cui nm 1920. Mt lng tin khng l cng mt i theo gi tr ca c phiu ny. Nhng nm 1700, Quc Anh l mt th lc vn tm trn ton th gii. Th k 18 vi ngi Anh l thi k ca thnh vng v giu c, ng ngha vi vic phn ln ngi dn Vng quc ny c tin u t v thng xuyn tm kim nhng c hi tin ca mnh vo. iu kin tr thnh mnh t tuyt vi cc cng ty ni chung v South Sea ni ring thu ht c u t, vi mt IOU (mt dng giy ghi n) vi Chnh ph tr gi 10.000.000 bng, cng ty ny mua ton b quyn vi tt c hot ng giao dch thc hin khu vc bin Nam. 6
C rt t cng ty pht hnh c phiu thi k , nhng u l nhng khon u t rt tt, nhng khng phi ai cng c c hi tham gia. Chng hn, cng ty ng n (East India) thanh ton lng c tc min thu kh ln cho ch 499 c ng. South Sea thi k c coi l n v c quyn c kh nng kim li kch x nht th gii. t pht hnh c phiu u tin ca cng ty ny khng th lm tha mn t nhng nh u c kht hng nht cho n s ng cng chng u t ang hon ton tin tng vo kh nng tng trng ca South Sea. Hu nh tt c mi ngi u tin rng nhng ngi Mexico v Nam M ch cn ang i c mt n v c th ng ra trung gian m ng cho h ly vng, qu i ly nhng sn phm xa x v sang trng lm t len v lng cu do ngi M sn xut. l l do m khng h c mt cu hi no c t ra khi South Sea tip tc pht hnh c phiu, h c tip tc mua chng no cng ty ny cn pht hnh, chp nhn mc gi rt cao. Thm ch vic cng ty khng c mt i ng qun l thiu kinh nghim v nng lc cng khng tr thnh vn c nh u t qu quan tm. Du sao nhng ngi lnh o South Sea thi k dng nh c sinh ra vi nng lc lm quan h cng chng (PR) tuyt vi. H thit k v trang b vn phng ca mnh tr thnh mt biu tng hon ho v s giu c. Bt c ai, d ch mt ln nhn vo s thnh vng do South Sea to ra cng kh c th ngn c nhng ng tin ca mnh b ht v pha n. Khng lu sau s ra i ca South Sea Company (SSC), mt cng ty ca Anh khc cng c thnh lp, nhng li t tr s Php, vi ci tn Mississippi Company (MC). Cng ty ny do mt ngi Anh lu vong c tn l John Law thnh lp. tng ca John vi cng ty ca mnh khng nhm n mc tiu kinh doanh thng mi m hng n vic chuyn h thng tin t thi t vng v bc thnh h thng tin giy. MC ngay lp tc thu ht c s quan tm ca nhng li bun lc a v tr thnh mt ni tin tng h u t vo nhng ng -la m hi nc mt ca mnh. MC khng mt qu nhiu thi gian tng gi tr c phiu ca n ln gp 80 ln ton b s vng v bc hin c lc ti Php. Law cng bt u i mua li nhng cng ty sp tim bnh trng tp on ca mnh.
Thnh cng ngay li lc a ny ng chm n nim t ho ca ngi Anh, v vi nim tin rng cng ty ca Anh khng th tht bi, nhng nh u t vng quc s t u t tin ca mnh mt cch liu lnh. H dng nh b m mt, khng nhn ra c rng SSC hot ng qu yu, khng th t n mc ha vn (hu ht nhng chuyn hng ch len u i nhm hng v hng ha b hng mt cng nc ngoi no ), nh u t vn mun mua tip c phiu. SSC v mt s cng ty khc tha thun vic cho nh u t ci h mun. Nhu cu u t lm cho hot ng IPO c xc tin nhiu n mc khng c mt thc o hp l no c th mang ra s dng, thm ch l nhn cng ty vi nhng li ha v nhng sn phm o tng nh sn xut c loi rau c th phc ch li nh nng mt tri hay xy nhng ta nh ni m rng t ai Vng quc Anh. C phiu pht hnh c bn vi ch duy nht mt t m t l "in". Cui cng, ban qun tr ca SSC cng nhn ra rng gi tr ca nhng c phiu h nm gi khng cn phn nh c gi tr thc ca cng ty v ngun doanh thu o ut m SSC ang to ra. H quyt nh bn chnh c phiu ca mnh vo ma h nm 1720 vi hy vng rng khng ai s lm l b mt v hot ng kinh doanh km ci ca cng ty vi nhng ngi khc c lin quan li ch n cng ty. Tuy nhin thc t khng nh h mong mun, cng ging nh cch m bt k mt tin xu no c lan truyn i, tin tc v hnh ng ca ban qun tr cng ty c lan truyn nhanh chng, v h qu v mt cuc khng hong bn tho nng giy t v gi tr kia l khng th trnh khi. Tc ng khng khip t qu bong bng v SouthSea cng ng thi chc thng qu bong bng tng tng v gi tr khng c thc ca MC, ko theo s sp ca Mississippi.
Mt s sp ton din, bo trc bi s b tay ca cc ngn hng, c vt vt v trnh c ch nh vo v th kinh t qu mnh ca ton Vng Quc Anh v gip ca Chnh ph trong n lc n nh li hot ng ca h thng ngn hng. Chnh ph Anh nghim cm vic pht hnh c phiu, mi n nm 1825, iu lut ny mi c bi b.
Tm tt bng th:
Mt bi ht c ngy thng c m ng ht vi nhau v cu chuyn SouthSea nh sau, ti nguyn vn ting Anh, nh bn no c th dch tt dch gip ti: There is a gulf where thousands fell, There all the bold adventurers came; A narrow sound, though deep as hell, Change Alley is the dreadful name.
Then stars and garters did appear Among the meaner rabble; To buy and sell, to see and hear The Jews and Gentiles squabble. The greatest ladies thither came, And plied in chariots daily, Or pawned their jewels for a sum To venture in the Alley. Bi 5: "Bong bng" c phiu trn Nasdaq Sau t v ca th trng Chng khon (TTCK) nm 1987, th trng th gii ly li tng trng v gi. Xu th mnh m ny c li i bi cng ngh thng tin. Rt nhiu cc c phn ca cc cng ty c nim yt trn Sn Chng khon Nasdaq - mt sn giao dch in t. Vo u nhng nm 1990, my tnh c nhn nhanh chng c s dng rng ri trong kinh doanh v vo vic phc v c nhn. Cui cng th my tnh cng c nh gi hp l hn v cc chc nng c thit k d s dng hn. My tnh khng cn l "mn n" ch dnh ring cho 9
nhng ngi am m. N thc s l cng c kinh doanh thit yu to ra li th cnh tranh. Cc ng dng trong kinh doanh ca my tnh c pht minh ra tr gip con ngi s dng trong K ton, tnh thu v x l vn bn. My tnh cng bt u cnh tranh vi Tivi nh mt hnh thc gii tr khi m tr chi trn my tnh trn ngp cc th trng. Cc tp on nh Microsoft t c nhng thnh cng cc k rc r khi hu ht cc h thng my tnh trn th gii u s dng phn mm vn hnh ca h. Trong sut thi gian ny, ngnh cng nghip my tnh M tp chung hn vo phn mm my tnh so vi phn cng. iu ny bi v phn mm l sn phm cho gi tr thng d rt rt cao do n khng phi l sn phm hu hnh thng thng, v d nh chips my tnh. Cc cng ty phn mm tng gi tr thng d qua vic bn cc thng tin c cp bn quyn vi chi ph sn xut ra rt thp. Phn cng my tnh tr thnh hng ho thng thng theo ng ngha, v d kh m phn bit c vi cc sn phm cng loi ca i th cnh tranh. Cc sn phm hng ho nh vy to ra li nhun rt thp bi v cc i th cnh tranh lun lun cnh tranh bng gi c r. Cc cng ty Chu vi chi ph sn xut thp hu nh cung cp ton b cc thit b phn cng vo thi im ny. Tuy nhin, phn mm c bo v nh quyn s hu tr tu vi bng sng ch. V vy, mt sn phm nh H iu hnh Microsoft Windows l mt sn phm nh vy. N to ra mt hnh lang chc chn kh c th thm nhp, to ra li ch m bt c cng ty no cng thm mun tm kim. Gi c phn ca cc cng ty phn mm tin ln cc bc cao hn mt cch nhanh chng. Rt nhiu cc cng ty phn mm nh khi u bng vic thu cc sinh vin i hc lm vic trong cc gara, tr h lng bng bnh piza v soda cho n tho thch. Mi cng ty mi thnh lp u mun tr thnh "Microsoft mi" trn th trng. Kt cc l, mt vi trong s cc cng ty mi i vo hot ng bt c s ch ca cc nh u t t bn - nhng ngi ang tm kim cc cng ty kiu ny cung cp vn, pht hnh c phiu v gt hi c ng li nhun kch x. Sm mun g nhng cng ty non nt chn t chn ro trn th trng cng s tr cho cc nhn vin ang hng hi trn tr hy vng ca mnh c phiu cng ty. iu c ngha rng khi cng ty pht hnh c phiu ra cng cng, nhng c ng u tin chc chn s tr nn giu c. Phn ln cc cng ty phn mm khi nghip Thung lng Silicon, gn San Franicsco, ni c coi l mt Thnh a Mecca v cng ngh. Ch s Nasdaq v c phn ca cc cng ty cng ngh thng tin tng cc k nhanh, to ra rt nhiu cc triu ph. My tnh tr nn ph bin hn vo gia nhng nm 1990, khi mt tn cc tr chi my tnh c to ra nh Sim City v Duke Nukem. S thay i ny dn n s hiu bit my tnh trong gii tr khi m my tnh i t s khan him sang ph bin trn th trng. K nguyn ca mng ton cu Internet. Vo khong nm 1994, mt cng ngh mi ra i vi ci tn Internet, ln u tin c to ra cho nhu cu ca th trng tiu dng. Thc t, hnh thc nguyn thu ca Internet xut hin t nm 1969. Hnh thc ny c gi l DARPANet v c to ra bi cc c quan Chnh ph, c tc dng nh mt bin php hiu qu trao i thng tin khoa hc v qun s gia cc my tnh cc vng khc nhau. Vo nhng nm 1990, Internet pht trin hnh thc giao tip bng th in t, s dng chatroom v cc websites thng tin. Hu nh ngay lp tc, cc cng ty kinh doanh nhn thy internet l mt c hi to ra li nhun khng l. America Online to ra dch v Internet sn c cho vic s dng ca v s khch hng. 10
Cng c tm kim Yahoo khi ng nm 1994 l mt danh b cho ton b cc website ton cu. Amazon tr thnh ca hng sch trc tuyn vo nm 1994. Ebay bt u vo nm 1995 hot ng nh mt website bn u gi. Khi internet chuyn t lnh a ch dnh cho ngi am m my tnh m rng ra cho c th trng, nhng ch kinh doanh mng tr nn giu c ht sc. Rt nhiu cc cng ty cng ngh hin nay ang bn c phn IPO trn tr trng s cp. Nhng c ng u tin, gm c c cc nhn vin, tr thnh triu ph ch qua mt m. Cc cng ty tip tc tr cho nhn vin ca mnh quyn chn mua c phn, to ra li nhun rt ln nu c phn ch cn ln gi mt cht. Cui nhng nm 1990, thm ch c cc th k cng c tr gi quyn chn ln n hng triu la. Rt nhiu cng ty ban phn thng l BMW! y ng l mt v d cho s thi qu. Cn cung c phiu Cng ngh Mt vi nh kinh t cn mc nhin cng nhn rng chng ta ang trong mt nn Kinh t mi, ni m lm pht hu nh s khng xy ra v hin tng th trng Chng khon sp s khng xy ra na! Thm ch t hn, h tng ni rng thu nhp t c phiu hi phc cng s khng tng ng. T Nn kinh t c m ch C phn cng nghip, nh l cc ch s trung bnh trn Dow Jones. Mt t thng dng khc l "Paradigm Shift" (c chuyn hon ton) cng l mt t ng ngha vi tn Nn kinh t mi. Cc nh u t b ham m nhng t ny bi v h m mng m t n l th g m mng, hp dn v si ng. T nm 1996 n nm 2000, th trng CK Nasdaq tng t 600 ln 5000 cng ty nim yt. Cc cng ty Dot-com c iu hnh bi nhng ngi ch vo qung 30-40 tui, pht hnh c phn, v to ra hng trm triu la tin vn. Nhng cng ty ny cng chng c k hoch kinh doanh g nhiu, v tt nhin cng chng c nhng khon thu nhp g c t kinh doanh. V d, Pets.com chng thu nhp c g t cng vic kinh doanh nhng li pht hnh c phiu v thu c hng t la. Cc cng ty Dot-coms lng ph hng triu la mi ti vo nhng ba tic phung ph ph phim. Lm vic chm ch cha bao gi l nhim v ca ch cc cng ty dot-coms. C rt nhiu cc cu chuyn v nhn vin ca cc cng ty dot-coms i i li li trong phng bng chn t v chi bng c ngy. C lc c mi 60 giy li to ra mt triu ph. Rt nhiu cc nh triu ph "n lin" ny ngh rng h tht thng minh v sng sut, l tt c nhng g h phi lm l chi v kim tin. Khng bao gi c phm sai lm cho rng gi c c phiu tng l do c cc v u t khn ngoan. Bong bng Vo u nhng nm 2000, tnh hnh bt u lng xung. Cc nh u t sm nhn ra rng gic m Dot-com thc s l mt gic m bong bng. Trong vng vi thng, TTCK Nasdaq st xung t 5000 xung 2000 cng ty. Hng trm c phn nh c phn ca Pet.com tr gi hng t la, rt khi bn Chng khon cng nhanh nh khi n xut hin. Ht hong - cc nh u t mt hng nghn t la. Th trng CK tip tc st xung cn 800 cng ty vo nm 2002. Gi c phiu ca Microstrategy tng "bay cao" ln tn 3500$ gim xung ch cn 4$. Hng t cc v xcngan v k ton b a ra nh sng, vch trn bin php thi phng gi to ca cc cng ty v nhng khon thu nhp ca mnh. Cc c ng tr nn t lit. Vo nm 2001, nn kinh t lm vo tnh trng suy thoi khi Cc 11
d tr Lin Bang ct gim li sut, nhm c gng chm dt nn "chy mu." Hng triu cng nhn b mt vic v mt i cc khon tit kim. Chng cn phi ni thm, Nn kinh t mi l mt tr khi hi, v quy lut kinh t truyn thng vn gi vai tr ch cht. iu ng bun l cch m nhng bong bng s tip tc xy ra trong tng lai. Khi n xy ra tht, nhng nh u t km tnh to s ni rng "ln ny s khc!" Bi 6: Khng hong Kinh t Chu 1997 - Mt gc nhn Trong nhng nm gn y, nhiu th trng mi ni tri qua nhng cuc khng hong ti chnh, c th nhc n nh khng hong Mexico nm 1994, khng hong ti chnh Chu 1997, khng hong Argentine 2001. C rt nhiu bn khon xung quanh s xut hin ca nhng cuc khng hong ny, tuy nhin c l bn khon ln nht v cng cn gii p tt c th trnh c nhng cuc khng hong khc l lm th no mt t nc t trng thi tng trng cao ngay trc cuc khng hong c th bin chuyn rt nhanh chng sang trng thi khng hong, st gim kinh t trm trng. Trn gc kinh t, Frederic Mishkin, tc gi cun sch The Economics of Money, Banking and Financial Markets, tip cn gii thch trn kha cnh vn thng tin bt cn xng. Chng ta th i theo dng phn tch ca ng hiu v c ch cuc khng hong Chu nm 1997. Tin trnh xy ra cuc khng hong Chu rt khc vi nhng g xy nc M, s khc bit ny n t nhng c trng khc nhau ca cch thc t chc th trng vn v th trng n. Hnh di m t cc giai on xy ra cuc khng hong Chu . Mt trong nhng yu t cn bn d n cuc khng hong l tnh trng xu i nhanh chng ca bng cn i k ton ngn hng m nguyn nhn trc tip l t nhng khon vay khng c kh nng thanh ton ngy cng tng. Khi nhng quc gia, c bit khu vc ng , bt u ni lng cc quy nh vi th trng ti chnh vo u nhng nm 1990, mt ln sng vay dng ln rt cao, trong , hot ng cho vay tn dng vi cc khu vc kinh doanh phi ti chnh t nhn tng c bit nhanh. Cng ng thi do kh nng gim st yu ca cc c qun iu hnh php l ngn hng, bn thn ngn hng thiu chuyn gia trong vic theo di v gim st hnh vi ca i tng vay, nhng khon l do n xu bt u tng ln, tc ng tiu cc n c ngun vn thc ca ngn hng. Ngun lc b bo mn, ngn hng khng cn kh nng cho vay, khi hot ng cho vay khng cn c tip tc, cc hot ng ca nn kinh t b thu hp l iu d hiu v tt yu.
12
Tuy c nhiu im khc vi nhng cuc khng hong va suy thoi xy ra cui th k 19 v u th k 20 M, vn c mt s im chung quan trng ta c th a ra so snh, mt trong nhng im chung l s bin ng tng gim bt thng v bt n ca th trng chng khon giai on trc khi din ra cuc khng hong v ng gp vo lm trm trng hn tc ng ca n, nhng quc gia din ra im ny r nht l Thailand, Nam Triu Tin. Nhng quc gia nh Indonesia, Malaysia, v Philipines, tnh trng st gim th trng li xy ra ng thi khi din ra cuc khng hong. Ti Thailand v Hn Quc, trc khi cuc khng hong din ra, nn kinh t nhng nc ny chng kin s sp ca nhng tp on ti chnh v phi ti chnh ln, nhng v sp ny tc ng tiu cc v lm tng tnh bt n chung ca th trng ti chnh trong nc. Theo F.Mishkin, khi m s bt n tng ln v gi tr rng ton th trng chng khon (TTCK) suy gim th vn thng tin bt cn xng s pht sinh. i vi ngn hng, s c nhiu kh khn trong vic xc nh u l i tng cho vay tt v u l khng tt. Suy gim gi tr rng ton th trng cng ng ngha vi vic suy gim gi tr ca ti sn th chp, k qu, ng thi tng kh nng i tng nhn vay n thc hin cc khon u t c mc ri ro cao do lng ti sn h mt i nu khon u t khng thnh cng s nh hn. S gia tng mc bt n v suy gim TTCK xy ra trc khi thc s din ra cuc khng hong, cng vi cc bng cn i ti sn ca ngn hng ngy mt xu i, tt c gp phn lm ny sinh nhiu hn vn la chn i nghch v ri ro o c. Tt c s gp phn lm cho nn kinh t tin ngy cng gn hn n mt cuc khng hong ti chnh trm trng.
13
n giai on ny, hot ng u c n r, xut hin c bit nhiu trn cc th trng ngoi hi, y nn kinh t vo cuc khng hong trn mi phng din. Vi Thailand, s lo lng v tnh trng thm ht ti khon vng lai v suy yu ca h thng ti chnh, y ln nh im bi s sp ca mt mt cng ty ti chnh ln - Finance One, a n mt "cuc chin u c" ln, tc ng lm cho Ngn hng Trung ng Thailand phi cho php th ni ng Baht vo 7/1997. Khng lu sau, li xut hin mt "cuc chin u c" khc tc ng vo nhng quc gia cn li trong khu vc v kt qu l s sp dy chuyn ca ng Peso Philipines, ng Rupiah Indonesia, ng Ringgit Malaysia v ng Won Hn Quc. Cu trc t chc th trng n khu vc ng , tng tc vi tnh trnh ph gi tin t y nn kinh t khu vc ti cuc khng hong ton din. C qu nhiu doanh nghip nhng quc gia ny c cc khon n pht hnh bng ngoi t nh ng USD hay Yen Nht, s mt gi ng tin trong nc lm cho tnh trng vay n, xt trn gc ng ni t, thm trm trng, ngay c khi trn thc t gi tr ti sn ca h khng h thay i. Vo thng 3/1995, khi ng Peso mt na gi tr, tin ca cc quc gia nh Thailand, Philipine, Malaysia v Hn Quc cng mt trong khong t mt phn ba n mt na gi tr vo thi im u nm 1998, th bn cn i k ton ca hu ht cc doanh nghip u xut hin nhng khon l ln, vn la chn i nghch v ri ro o c tr ln trm trng. Trm trng nht l Indonesia vi ng tin mt gi n 75% dn n tnh trng v n i vi nhng khon n bng ngoi t v gi tr nhng khon n ny khng h nh,
thm
ch
rt
ln.
Mt kt qu tt yu khc t s mt gi tin t l lm pht thc t v lm pht k vng u tng, t li sut trn th trng cng tng chng mt. Doanh nghip v cc h gia nh do cng phi thanh ton li sut rt cao, tc ng tiu cc n bng cn i ti sn ca h. Th trng n cc quc gia mi ni khu vc ng c c trng l nhng hp ng n c k hn rt ngn, thng l di mt thng. Do li sut ngn hn tng ln nhng quc gia ny ng ngha vi tc ng rt ln n dng tin v bng cn i k ton ca cc n v trong nn kinh t. Theo phn tch v tnh trng thng tin bt cn xng ca Mishkin, tc ng xu ti bng cn i ti sn, tiu hao ti sn ca doanh nghip v h gia nh lm cho cc la chn i nghch v ri ro o c i vi th trng vay n cng tng theo v nhng t chc cho vay trong v ngoi nc khng cn mun tip tc cho vay na. Khi m hot ng cp tn dng v cho vay st gim th cng ng ngha vi vic cc hot ng ca nn kinh t b nh tr v tc tng trng GDP thc cng s st gim theo. Hnh v trn cho ta thy tnh trng "xi mn" ti sn trong nn kinh t hnh thnh do cc hot ng trong nn kinh t b nh tr v tnh trng xu i trong bn cn i ti sn v xi mn ti sn ca tng doanh nghip, h gia nh, kt qu l tc ng tiu cc hn n cuc khng hong trong h thng ngn hng. Nhng vn m cc doanh nghip v h gia nh ang phi i mt l phn ln trong s nhng n v c bn ca nn kinh t ny khng cn kh nng thanh ton n, iu ny quay tr li gy thit hi cho ngn hng. H thng ngn hng cn phi i mt vi mt vn trm trng khc l khi lng rt ln nhng khon n ngn hn bng ngoi t, trong khi ng tin trong nc b ph gi, gi tr ca nhng khon n ny tng ln vn vt, iu ny tip tc lm tiu hao i lng ti sn thc ang cn rt t ca cc ngn hng. Trong tnh trng , l ra ton b h thng ngn hng c th sp nu khng c s h tr t pha Chnh ph - ging nh nhng g Chnh ph M lm trong cuc i khng hong - nhng khng phi vi ni 14
lc ca tng quc gia m nh s gip ca IMF (Qu Tin t Quc t), nh s gip ny m cc quc gia ng trnh c mt v sp vi h thng ngn hng. Tuy nhin, vi lng vn m cc ngn hng mt th s can thip ca Chnh ph nhm chng cho h thng ngn hng cng khng th ngn c nng lc cho vay ca cc ngn hng st gim mnh. Mishkin gii thch khng hong ca h thng ngn hng vi nhng c tnh nh m t to ln mt ro cn v gy kh khn i vi cc hat ng cho vay ca ngn hng, lm trm trng thm cc vn v la chn i nghch v ri ro o c trn th trng ti chnh, ngn hng mt dn vai tr truyn thng trung gian ti chnh. Mt s thng s v bin ng cc quc gia ng trong khng hong: Philippines Thng 5/1997, Ngn hng Trung ng (NHTW) Philippines tng li sut ln1.75 im phn trm v tip tc tng ln 2 im vo thng 6/1997. Khi cuc khng hong bt u din ra ti Thailand vo ngy 2/7/1997 th mt ngy say , ngy 3/7/1997, NHTW Philippines b buc phi can thip su vo th trng nhm bo v ng peso, tng mc li sut vay qua m t 15% ln 24%. Gi tr ng peso gim mnh t 26 peso n mt USD ln 38 peso vo nm 2000, v ln 40 peso khi kt thc cuc khng hong. Hong Kong Cuc khng hong n ra 24 gi sau khi Vng Quc Anh trao tr Hong Kong li cho Trung Quc. Thng 10/1997, t gi -la Hong Kong c c nh so vi -la M l 7,8:1, tuy nhin chu sc p rt ln t hot ng u t bi lm pht ca Hong Kong cao hn rt nhiu so vi lm pht ca M v tnh trng ny ko di nhiu nm. C quan qun l tin t Hong Kong chi hn mt t USD bo v ng tin trong nc. Tuy gi c t gi ng tin, TTCK Hong Kong tr ln cc k bt n, ch s Hang Seng tt 23% ch trong vng ba ngy t 20-23/10/1997. Li sut tin vay qua m c nng ln chng mt, ng trc sc p t hot ng u c, Chnh ph Hong Kong khng nh tuyn chin vi hot ng u c. Chnh ph kt thc cuc chin ny bng vic b ra xp x 120 t -la Hong Kong (khong 15 t USD) mua li c phiu ca nhiu doanh nghip, tr thnh c ng ln trong mt s cng ty, chng hn ti HSBC Chnh ph nm 10% c phn. Hn Quc Hn Quc c xp hng th 11 trong s nhng nn kinh t ln trn th gii. Khi khng hong xy ra, vi tnh trng km ci sn c ca h thng ngn hng bt ngun t nhng khon n km hiu qu rt ln, Moody's h bc tn dng ca Hn Quc t A1 xung A3 vo thng 11/1997 v tip tc h xung B2 vo thng 12. S kin ny gp phn lm th TTCK Hn Quc st gim mnh hn, gim 4% vo 7/11/1997, gim tip 7% vo ngy 8/11 v 7.2% vo ngy 24/11/2997 khi c tin IMF yu cu Hn Quc thc hin ci t h thng ti chnh. Nm 1998, Hyundai Motor mua li Kia Motors. Qu u t mo him tr gi 5 t USD ca Samsung cng gii th do tc ng qu mnh ca cuc khng hong, tip Daewoo Motors phi bn li cho General Motors. ng won Hn Quc gim t 1000 xung 1700 won i mt USD. D c nhiu n lc trong vic ci thin GDP trn u ng, sau khng hong, n quc gia ca Hn Quc tng gp ba ln so vi trc .
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Malaysia Trc khng hong, ti khon vng lai ca Malaysia thm ht 5%. Malaysia l quc gia nhn c nhiu vn u t nc ngoi nht, iu ny phn nh qua vic KLSE (sn giao dch chng khon chnh thc ca Malaysia) c coi l sn giao dch c hot ng mnh nht trn th gii (tng gi tr giao dch thm ch vt qua c NYSE mc d c mc vn ha th trng thp hn rt nhiu.) thi im , mi ngi u k vng quc gia ny tip tc duy tr tc tng trng v tr thnh nc pht trin vo nm 2020. Vo thi im trc khi xy ra khng hong, KLSE Index ang mc 1.200, ng ringgit c giao dch t l 2.5:1 so vi USD, li sut qua m di 7%. Li sut qua m tng t di 8% ln 40%, lm cho mc nh gi tn dng tt xung v xy ra ln sng bn chng khon v tin t t. Cui nm 1997, mc nh gi tn dng tt xung di mc bnh qun cho cc khon u t khng m bo, KLSE mt 50% im, tt xung di 600, ng ringgit cng mt 50% gi tr, cn 3.8 ng i 1 USD. Nm 1998, GDP gim 6,2%, ng ringgit mt thm 4,7% gi tr v KLSE tt xung di 270 im. Nc M v Nht Bn Dch cm Chu cng c nh hng n nc M v Nht Bn. Nn kinh t tuy khng sp nhng cng b tc ng nng n. Ngy 27/11/1997, ch s DJ cng nghip gim 554 im, tng ng 7,2%, NYSE tm ngng giao dch trong thi gian ngn Nht Bn cng chu nhiu nh hng do l nn kinh t ln trong khu vc. Nhiu nc Chu khc trong tnh trng thm ht cn cn thng mi vi Nht Bn. Vo cuc khng hong, ng yen Nht gim cn 147:1 vi USD khi c nhng t bn ra t. Tc tng trng GDP ca Nht gim t 5% xung cn 1,6%. Cuc khng hong Chu cng lm mt s doanh nghip Nht ph sn.
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TI LIU THAM KHO 1. Lynn A.Stout, Inefficient markets and the new finance, 2005 2. Robert J Shiller, Human Behavior And The Efficiency of The Financial System, 2001, page 1306-1334 3. Malena Johnson, Henrik Lindblom & Peter Platan, Behavioral Finance And the change of investor behavior during and after the speculative bubble at the end of the 1990s, 2002 4. Nicolas Barberis, A survey of Behavioral Finance, 2003, chapter 18, page 1071 1074 5. Andrei Sheleifer v Robert W.Vishny, Advance in Behavioral Finance, vol II, Richard H. Thaler, page 79 102 (Part II) 6. Ackert & Deaves, Behavioral Finance: Psychology, Decision-Making, and Markets, Ackert 7. Andrei shleifer and Lawrence H.Summers, The noise trader approach to finance, 1990 8. H Quc Tun, Ti chnh hnh vi Nghin cu ng dng tm l hc vo ti chnh, 2007 9. Trn Ngc Th & H Quc Tun, ng dng ti chnh hnh vi vo phn tch thc tin, 2007 10. L t Tr, Ti chnh hnh vi v nhng bt thng ca th trng chng khon Vit Nam, 2007 11. Kahneman v Tversky, Prospect Theory: An anlaysis of decision under risk, 1979, page 279 12. Richard K.Guy, The strong law of small numbers 13. Abhijit Banerjee, A simple Model of Herb Behavior, 1992, page 797 817 14. Martin Sewell, Behavioural Finance, February 2007 (revised April 2010) 15. Hersh Shefrin, Behaviorlizing Finance, Vol.4. 2009, page 2 59 16. Kadir Can Yalcin, Market Rationality: Efficient Market Hypothesis versus Market Anomalies, 2010, page 23 31 17. Victor Ricciardi and Helen K.Simon, paper what is behavioral Finance, 2000 18. L Th Ngc Lan, Lun vn Nghin cu L thuyt ti chnh hnh vi trn th trng chng khon Vit Nam, 2009 19. Amos Tversy&Daniel Kahneman, Rational Choice and The framing of Decisions, 1986
20. Eugene F.Fama, Efficient Capital Markets: A review of theory and empirical work, 1969 21. Adam Smith, Principles of Rational Behavior of Work in Society and Business, Chapter 3, 22. Trn Th Hi L, Hnh vi by n trn th trng chng khon Vit Nam nguyn nhn v mt s gii php, 2010 23. Ti liu nghin cu v tm l hc v x hi hc. 24. Cc website: a. www.google.com.vn b. http://papers.ssrn.com c. www.saga.vn d. http://www.investopedia.com

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CHNG II BA LUN C V L THUYT TI CHNH HNH VI

CHNG IV NG DNG V NH HNG CA TI CHNH HNH VI TRONG QUN TR DOANH NGHIP

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CHNG II BA LUN C V L THUYT TI CHNH HNH VI

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Quyt nh 2: P3(-$750) v P4(0.75, -$1,000)

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Tiu lun: L thuyt Ti chnh hnh vi

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Tiu lun: L thuyt Ti chnh hnh vi

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Tiu lun: L thuyt Ti chnh hnh vi

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De Bondt, Werner. Tin s ti trng i hc Wisconsin ti Madison

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