Co Che Dieu Hanh Lai Suat Cua Viet Nam

B GIO DC V O TO
TRNG I HC KINH T TP.HCM

KHOA O TO SAU I HC
------
ti: C CH IU HNH LI SUT CA NHNN VIT

NAM V NHNG VN T RA
LP CAO HC M 1 - KHO 20
GVHD: PGS.TS TRNG QUANG THNG
NHM THC HIN: NHM 4
THNG 04 NM 2012
Nhn xt ca Ging vin:

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DANH SCH NHM THC HIN

STT
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
H
Bi Anh
Nguyn Th Thanh
L Th Ngc
Nguyn nh
Nguyn Th Kim
Bi Th Thanh
Mai Th L
Nguyn Th Kim
Phm Ngc
Vng Vn
Trn Th Xun
Nguyn Th Bch
Nguyn Trn Qunh
inh Th Huyn
ng L Hng
TN
Chnh
Ho
Mai
Nam
Hong
Hng
Huyn
Oanh
Tho
Thun
Thy
Thy
Tin
Trm
Trc
GHI CH
MC LC
CHNG I
TNG QUAN V NGN HNG TRUNG NG V C CH IU HNH LI SUT
1. Tnh cht v c cu t chc ca h thng Ngn hng trung ng (NHTW) ..................................1
1.1 Tnh cht ................................................................................................................................... 1
1.2 C cu t chc NHTW...............................................................................................................1
1.2.1 Quan h t chc gia NHTW v chnh quyn ........................................................................2
a/ Ngn hng trung ng bit lp vi chnh ph ..............................................................................2
b/ Ngn hng trung ng trc thuc chnh ph ................................................................................3
1.2.2 Quan h t chc trong ni b NHTW ....................................................................................4
2. Mng li ca Ngn hng Trung ng .......................................................................................4
3. Hot ng ca Ngn hng Trung ng (NHTW) .........................................................................5
4. Cc cng c iu tit kinh t v m: .............................................................................................8
4.1 Mc tiu iu tit kinh t v m ca NHTW ..............................................................................8
4.2 Cc cng c iu tit .................................................................................................................8
a/ Cng c th trng m (Open market operations):........................................................................8
b/ Li sut cho vay chit khu (discount widow rates) ....................................................................10
c/ D tr bt buc (reseves requirements) .......................................................................................10
d/ Cung ng tin hay tin mt php nh (monetary base supply) ....................................................12
5. V chnh sch li sut ca ngn hng trung ng Vit Nam (SBV) ..............................................12
5.1 Gii thiu v Ngn hng Nh nc Vit Nam ............................................................................12
5.2 Vai tr v chc nng ca NHNN Vit Nam: ..............................................................................12
5.3 L lun chung v li sut............................................................................................................ 15
5.3.1 Khi nim v phn loi li sut................................................................................................ 15
5.3.2 Cc loi li sut thng gp ....................................................................................................15
5.3.3 Cch thc qun l li sut .......................................................................................................16
a/ C nh li sut: ..........................................................................................................................16
b/ Li sut th ni: ...........................................................................................................................16

5.3.4 Cc nhn t nh hng n li sut ........................................................................................17
a/ Thi gian o hn: .....................................................................................................................17
b/ Kh nng thanh khon: ................................................................................................................17
c/ Ri ro: .........................................................................................................................................17
d/ Chi ph qun l ti sn: ................................................................................................................17
e/ Lm pht:.....................................................................................................................................17
f/ Cung tin t: ................................................................................................................................18
CHNG II
THC T IU HNH LI SUT CA NGN HNG NH NC VIT NAM
1. Tm lc din bin chnh ca vic iu hnh li sut ca Ngn hng Nh nc qua tng thi k.19
1.1 C ch thc thi chnh sch li sut c nh (Giai on t 1986 n thng 5/1992) ....................19
1.2 C ch iu hnh khung li sut (Giai on t thng 06/1992 n nm 1995) ............................20
1.3 C ch iu hnh li sut trn (Giai on t nm 1996 n thng 07/2000) ...............................21
1.4 C ch iu hnh li sut c bn km bin (Giai on t nm 2000 n thng 05/2002) ......22
1.5 C ch li sut tha thun (T giai on nm 2002 n thng 5/2008) ......................................23
1.6 C ch iu hnh da vo li sut c bn, trn li sut huy ng v li sut tha thun: Giai on
2009 n nay ...................................................................................................................................25
2. Nghin cu nh lng tc ng ca li sut ln cc kha cnh ca cc yu t v m v nn kinh t
nc ta: ...........................................................................................................................................30
2.1 Mi quan h gia li sut v lm pht ........................................................................................ 30
a/ Tng quan kinh t v m nm 2011 .............................................................................................30
b/ Mi quan h gia li sut v lm pht .........................................................................................32
2.2 Tc ng ca li sut ln hot ng kinh doanh ca doanh nghip .............................................36
2.3 Vn cn nghin cu tip: ......................................................................................................37
CHNG III
KINH NGHIM IU HNH LI SUT CA MT S NC TRN TH GII
Cc D Tr Lin Bang M (FED) ..................................................................................................39
Ngn hng Trung ng Anh (BOE) ................................................................................................41
Ngn hng Trung ng Chu u (ECB) .........................................................................................41
Ngn hng Trung ng c (RBA) ..................................................................................................42
Ngn hng Trung ng Nht Bn (BOJ) ........................................................................................42
CHNG IV
CC VN T RA
4.1. nh gi c ch iu hnh li sut Vit Nam trong thi gian qua ..........................................44
4.2 Mt s vn t ra: .................................................................................................................44
4.3 Mt s gii php hon thin c ch iu hnh li sut ca NHNN Vit Nam hin nay: ..............46
C ch iu hnh li sut ca NHNN Vit Nam v nhng vn t ra
GVHD: PGS.TS Trng Quang Thng
CHNG I
TNG QUAN V NGN HNG TRUNG NG V C CH IU HNH LI SUT
1. Tnh cht v c cu t chc ca h thng Ngn hng trung ng (NHTW)
Ngy nay, tt c cc quc gia trn th gii, d ln hay nh u c mt NHTW (v d: Thy in l Bank of
Sweden, Anh l Bank of England, Trung Quc l Peoples Bank of China, Ngn hng trung ng M - Cc
d tr lin bang M - Federal Reserve System (FED), ). Cc ngn hng ny m nhn vai tr rt quan
trng nh vic kim sot v iu tit mc cung tin cng nh cc vn lin quan n tin t, qun l hot
ng ca h thng ti chnh v tin t trong nc, thc hin nhiu nhim v vi Chnh ph.
Phng thc t chc v hot ng ca mi NHTW c th khc nhau khi so snh NHTW ny vi mt
NHTW khc ty theo mc pht trin ca nn kinh t v th trng ti chnh mi quc gia. Vi tng
giai on pht trin ca mnh, nn kinh t th trng i hi nhng c cu t chc v hot ng thch hp
ca cc thit ch c lin quan phc v cho n nh NHTW, b my chnh quyn v nguyn tc qun l.
D tn gi c khc nhau nh Ngn hng nh nc Vit Nam, Ngn hng Quc gia Hungary, Ngn hng
quc gia Iran, Ngn hng Trung ng Chile, NHTW Guatermala,nhng nhn chung th tnh cht, hot
ng v vai tr ca NHTW u c nhiu im chung do cng phc v nhng mc tiu kh ging nhau.
1.1 Tnh cht
-
Ngn hng TW c mt vi tnh cht chung sau:
L mt nh ch cng cng c th bit lp hoc ph thuc chnh ph, chu trch nhim trong vic qun
l v iu tit cc vn lin quan n tin t, phc v cho s tn ti v pht trin ca cng ng.
L thc th ti chnh cao nht v ln nht trong nc, cng chnh ph chu trch nhim v vic vn hnh
chnh sch tin t - ti chnh, gip kinh t tng trng v n nh gi c
L cu ni gia chnh ph vi cc hot ng ti chnh ca n vi nn kinh t
L cu ni gia th trng ti chnh tin t vi nc ngoi
Va l mt thit ch hnh chnh va l mt doanh nghi p. Li tc ca n dng trang tri chi ph cho
hot ng ton h thng, phn cn li d np vo Ngn sch nh nc
Chnh sch tin t ca NHTW phi h tr chnh sch ti kha ca Chnh ph v ngc li.
Cng c chnh ca NHTW l cc cng c ca chnh sch tin t.
1.2 C cu t chc NHTW

Tnh a dng v vn ha v lch s hnh thnh l nguyn nhn chnh to ra s khc nhau trong cch thc t
chc i sng v x hi gia cc quc gia trn th gii. NHTW cng nh c cu chnh quyn l cc thit
ch phn nh thc t chc i sng v x hi ca mi quc gia, do vy cng khc nhau gia cc quc gia
ny khi so snh vi cc quc gia khc. S khc nhau ny khng ch din ra trong quan h t chc NHTW,
m cn din ra trong ni b ca NHTW.
Nhm thc hin: Nhm 4 TCDN m 1 Cao hc Kha 20
Trang 1
1.2.1 Quan h t chc gia NHTW v chnh quyn

Hnh thc t chc ca bt k nh ch x hi no bao gi cng b tc ng bi 03 nhn t: Thi quen v vn
ha, Quan im chnh tr v Nhu cu hin ti ca nn kinh t. iu gii thch v sao cc quc gia khc
nhau, khng t th nhiu b my NHTW khc nhau
Hin c 02 quan im hay 02 trng phi v quan h t chc gia NHTW v chnh quyn. l, (a) trng
phi NHTW l mt nh ch bit lp, v (b) trng phi NHTW trc thuc chnh ph
a/ Ngn hng trung ng bit lp vi chnh ph
in hnh ca trng phi th nht nh cc nc M, Php, Cng ha lin bang c, Anh Quc v Nht
Bn, M hnh Ngn hng Trung ng theo kiu ny thng c din t bng m hinh sau
Quan h gia Ngn hng trung ng v Chnh ph theo trng phi bit lp nhau
Kiu m hnh ny b nh hng rt ln bi quan im, t tng Chu u hay trit hc Hy Lp. Theo ,
ngi ta cho rng trong 02 khi nim dn tc, nhn dn v quc gia th khi nim dn tc v nhn dn l ln
hn. Cng ng nhn dn hay dn tc ra quc gia, ch khng phi quc gia ra dn tc. duy tr
cuc sng, trt t x hi, t bo v mnh, ngi ta mi hnh thnh nn B my trng coi vic thc thi lut
php, x hi, phc v li ch ca dn tc, nhn dn m ngy nay chng ta gi l chnh quyn.
Trang 2
Ngn hng trung ng l ni qun l tin, m ti chnh li l ngun sng v tn ti ca mi chnh quyn. V
hot ng ca NHTW nh hng qu ln n i sng ca ton dn. Chnh v th, c rt nhiu p lc
mun NHTW t di s qun l ca chnh ph, tch bch di s qun l ca Nhn dn, cng ng m
i din thng l Quc hi. Tuy nhin, NHTW theo trng phi ny vn nghing v hng NHTW phi
c t di s qun l ca Nhn dn, cng ng, tch bit vi chnh ph (nh hnh v), v khng ai m
bo rng nu NHTW ri vo tay qun l ca Chnh ph th h ly g s xy ra so vi tn ch l NHTW phi
phc v Nhn dn. Ngy nay, NHTW l mt thit ch cng tn ti song song vi chnh quyn, di s gim
st trc tip ca Quc hi.
M hnh NHTW theo dng ny th nhim v ca Chnh quyn l qun l hnh chnh, duy tr php lut, bo
v lnh th, thc hin cc nhim v cng cng khc n nh v pht trin cng ng, cn vic NHTW
cung ng, qun l v iu tit hot ng cung ng tin, ti chnh, hot ng ngn hng, l cch ring c
ca n hng ti nhng mc tiu qun l kinh t chung ca t nc. Ti M iu ny c lut ha
trong Lut Aldrich Vreeland (1908), Lut Cc d tr lin bang (1913), Lut ngn hng (1935), Tha thun
gia Kho bc lin bang v H thng d tr lin bang Hoa K (1951)
b/ Ngn hng trung ng trc thuc chnh ph
Cng tn ti song song vi m hnh trn l m hnh t chc NHTW trc thuc chnh ph. Ty theo c
im lch s ca tng nc m m hnh NHTW theo kiu ny c th di quyn trc tip ca ngi ng
u chnh ph, hay di quyn iu khin ca mt i din ca chnh ph nh B trng ti chnh,
M hnh ny hot ng trn thi Chnh sch tin t l mt phn ca chnh sch cai tr, cng nh ti chnh
v tin t l phng tin ca chnh quyn. Thng cc nc ang pht trin, cc nc Chu theo m hnh
ny nh Vit Nam, Singapore, i Loan, Indonesia, M hnh ny ra i ch yu cc nc ngho, ang
pht trin hay sau chin tranh, v nhng nc ny cn tp trung mi ngun lc nn kinh t mt cch trit
nht, nhm phc v hiu qu cho chnh sch v k hoch pht trin ca chnh quyn, bao gi cng i
hi mt s tp quyn cao . Ch c nhng chnh ph c mc tp quyn cao mi to c s n nh cn
thit v chnh tr v vn dng c ton b ti nguyn cho cc mc tiu u t v pht trin lu di. V th
m NHTW trc thuc s qun l, iu hnh ca Chnh quyn.
M hnh ny c th c din gii bng m hnh sau:
Trang 3
M hnh NHTW trc thuc chnh ph

1.2.2 Quan h t chc trong ni b NHTW
Mi ngn hng trung ng c mt cch t chc ni b khc nhau ty theo c im lch s v chnh tr ca
mi nc. V c cu t chc ch c xc nh mc tiu hnh thnh ca n v, c rt nhiu cch t chc
hin nay trong cc NHTW.
2. Mng li ca Ngn hng Trung ng
Ty theo c im hnh thnh, NHTW mi nc phn chia mng li chi nhnh tc nghip ca mnh ty
theo cc cch khc nhau. Tuy nhin, c mt s c im chung trong vic t chc mng li ca cc
NHTW l:
-
Mi chi nhnh l mt m hnh thu nh ca NHTW Cc NHTW chi nhnh l nhng n v trc thuc
Thng c NHTW, c iu khin bi mt Ban gim c.
NHTW chi nhnh l mt i din chnh thc ca NHTW ti a phng. Cho nn n c y chc
nng, trchnhim v hot ng ging nh mt NHTW
Mng li ca NHTW hp thnh b phn quan trong v ln nht trong vic chuyn nhng quyt
nh v cung ng tin, iu tit tin t, t gi, li sut, tn dng, t NHTW hay hi ng Chnh
sch tin t lan ta ra nn kinh t. Mi quan h gia cc c quan xy dng chin lc, chnh sch v
tc nghip ny hp thnh h thng NHTW vi nhng nh hng mnh m v a dng ln ton b
nn i sng kinh t ca mt quc gia
Trang 4
3. Hot ng ca Ngn hng Trung ng (NHTW)1
Pht hnh Tin:
n v trc thuc NHTW chu trch nhim cng tc pht hnh l V pht hnh tin. V nguyn tc, c
nhng quy nh nht nh chi phi vic pht hnh ca NHTW trn 02 phng c bn: thi im pht hnh
v s lng pht hnh. Hay tr li cu hi nn gia tng hay gim cung ng tin? V sao tng v gim? Tng
gim loi cung ng tin no (M1, M2, M2 hay L)2? Tng gim vo lc no? Tng hay gim bao nhiu? V
bng bin php no.
Mt trong nhng Nguyn l c nh hng v p dng rng ri nht l Nguyn l trao i ca Nh kinh t
hc Ivring Fisher, quan nim rng khi lng tin cn c to ra cho nn kinh t (M), trong tin mt
l b phn ht nhn, ph thuc vo 3 bin s
-
P: Mc gi c bnh qun ca hng ha ti thi im ang xt trong nn kinh t,
Q (hay T): Tng s lng hng ha
V: l vn tc vng quay tin t, o lng s ln m tin t dch chuyn to ra tng gi tr hng

ha Q ni trn
Vi nhng bin s ny ng a ra phng trnh trao i l:

M.V = P.Q
Hay tch s gia tng khi tin t m nn kinh t cn trong nm, vi vn tc chu chuyn bnh qun ca tin
cng trong nm y s tng ng vi mc gi bnh qun nhn vi s lng ca n v sn phm v dch
v c nn kinh t to ra trong nm.
C rt nhiu cch thc pht hnh tin nh pht hnh qua ng chnh ph, qua th trng m (th trng s
cp, th cp, th trng vn, th trng tin t v cc th trng ti chnh khc), qua ngn hng trung gian,
qua th trng vng v ngoi t, pht hnh cn i.
C th tham khao thm gio trnh Tin v hot ng ngn hng TS.L Vinh Danh t trang 82 n trang 112 in nm 2009
M0: tng lng tin mt, cn c gi l tin c s - bao gm tin mt trong lu thng do cc c nhn (h gia nh v doanh
nghip khng phi ngn hng nm gi) v d tr bt buc ca ngn hng thng mi ti ngn hng trung ng; M1: bng tng
lng tin mt (M0) v tin m cc ngn hng thng mi gi ti ngn hng trung ng; M2: tit gi tit kim c k hn; M3:
bng M2 cng vi tt c cc khon tit kim khc gi ti cc t chc tn dng; M4 ( Anh): bng M0 cng vi tin trong ti khon
cc loi; L (Y,r ) : hm cu tin ph thuc vo thu nhp v li sut
2
Trang 5
Ch ngn hng ca cc ngn hng Trung gian (NHTG)
Vi vai tr l ngn hng trung tm c cc Ngn hng trung gian v h thng ti chnh trong mi quc gia,
NHTW thc hin nhng cng vic rt quan trng cho cc NHTG v h thng ti chnh, cng vic l
-
Trung tm thanh ton, chuyn nhng, b tr ca cc NHTG: Nghip v ny c thc hin trong
qua vic theo di ghi chp trong s theo di ca NHTW, bi l cc Ngn hng trung gian u c ti
khon v lu gi tin mt thng d cng d tr bt buc ca h ti NHTW. Hay chng ta gi nm
na l bt ton ghi s.
Qun l hot ng d tr bt buc ca h thng NHTG: Hot ng thanh ton b tr v chuyn

nhng ti sn c3 cho cc NHTG ca NHTW s d tin hnh c v mt trong nhng nguyn nhn
chnh l NHTW l ngn hng c trch nhim qun l tt c d tr bt buc tin mt ca NHTG.
Hin nay trong hot ng qun l d tr ca NHTW c cc loi d tr sau:
o Tng d tr (Total Depository Insititution Reservers) vit tt l TR bng C s tin t (Monetary
Base MB) tr i tin mt trong nhn dn (C)
o D tr bt buc (Required Reserves) vit tt l RR, l nhng khon d tr c quy nh bi

lut, tnh bng cch ly t l d tr bt buc (%) (k hiu l ) nhn cho tin gi ca nhn dn
vo NHTG (k hiu l D)
o D tr d tha (Excess Reserves) vit tt l ER: l nhng khon tin mt di ra cao hn bt buc
do cc NHTG li v l do khng cho vay c ht, hay khng c nhng im u t an ton
o D tr vay mn (Borrowed Reserves) vit tt l BR l nhng phn d tr m NHTG c c
do vay mn ca NHTW phng thc chit khu
o D tr khng vay mn (Non borrowed Reserves) l nhng khon d tr do NHTG t li,
khng hi l khon vay mn ca ai
o D tr t do (Free Reverses) vit tt l FR l mt i lng dng theo di tnh hnh hot ng
v thc lu gi ca cc NHTG
-
FR ln hn hoc bng 0: cc NHTG ang bnh trng ti sn c thng qua vay mn v h t l d

tr bt buc
FR < 0 cc NHTG ang hot ng yu, lng cho vay v u t pht trin chm
hay
: Ti sn c gm: tin mt, vng bc, qu; tin gi ti NHNN; tin gi cc t chc tn dng khc; chng khon kinh doanh;
cc cng c ti chnh phi sinh; cho vay khch hng; chng khon u t; gp vn, u t di hn; ti sn c nh; bt ng sn
u t,
Trang 6
o C s tin t khgn vay mn (Non borrowed Base) vit tt l NB l lng tin mt thc t
ngoi lu thng.
Cu cnh cui cng ca h thng NHTG: Khi NHTG ri vo tnh trng thiu tin do rt tin t
ca nhn dn v li sut thp, v lm pht cao lm cho li sut tr nn m, v c nhng ti sn khc
hoc cc loi u t khc c li hn, hp dn hn, hay v khng cn tin tng vo hot ng ca
Ngn hng mnh gi tin na,. Trong nhng trng hp nh th, nu NHTG khng xoay kp tin
s ri vo tnh trng pht sn, tin cho vay khng v kp th gii php cui cng l n NHTW vay
tin nh cu cnh cho vay cui cng (lender of last report). NHTW cho NHTG vay trn phng
thc gi l cho vay chit khu (Discount Lending). Li sut ca loi cho vay nay l li sut chit
khu (Discount Rate). NHTW lm c iu ny v n l n v duy nht c in tin, li sut do n
quy nh. V bng phng thc ny m NHTW c th iu tit c cung tin t trong nn kinh t
Ch ngn hng ca Chnh ph: Thng qua vic

o M ti khon v i l ti chnh (Fiscal Agent), NHTW thay mt cho Chnh ph thu mt s
loi thu gin thu. M ti khon cho Chnh ph gi s tin vo trong qu trnh chi tiu. Tr
li cho Chnh ph nhng khon k gi ni trn. Cho Chnh ph vay nhng lc kt tin, thay
mt chnh ph pht hnh tri phiu vo th trng
o C vn v cc chnh sch ti chnh cho Chnh ph: Bao gm vic hng k bo co chi tit v
tnh hnh kinh t, gi c v tng cu, a ra trn qun im cu mnh, hng dn chnh ph
theo nhng ngh hp l v mi vn lin quan n ngn sch,
Qun l qu d tr Quc gia: bao gm cc loi ti sn chin lc m t nc no cng phi d b

li, khng bao gi s dung ht, cho nhng trng hp kh cp vn nhng chi ph bt ng, chng
hn: thin tai, ng t, lt li, hn hn, sp ti chnh, chin tranh, b cm vn,
Qun l h thng ti chnh Quc gia: NHTW c xc nh vai tr l th lnh ca h thng ti

chnh trong nc, NHTW chu trch nhim chnh trong vic cng c, nghin cu pht trin, gim
st cc hot ng ca H thng ngn hng v cc t chc ti chnh trong nc nhm lun m bo
c rng ton b hot ng tin t, ngn hng v ang din ra theo quy trnh, hp lut l trong
chiu hng phc v tt nht cho cc mc tiu kinh t ca t nc. Hot ng ny cn c gi l
hot ng cng c nn tng (Background Consolidation) h thng ti chnh cho nn kinh t.
iu tit kinh t v m: Mi hot ng ca NHTW u nh hng mt thit n mc cung tin

(Money Supply) trong nn kinh t. Cung ng tin thay i lm bin ng tiu dng, u t, sn
lng quc gia v gi c. Mt cch gin tip, mi hot ng ca NHTW nh hng su sc n nn
kinh t quc gia. Trong , phi k n hc thuyt ca Keynes vi cc l thuyt v bn tay v hnh
(visible Hand), thit lp h thng thanh ton v chuyn nhng quc t (International Transactions
and International Payments), t gi hi ai c nh (Fixed Exchange Rates),
Trang 7
4. Cc cng c iu tit kinh t v m:

4.1 Mc tiu iu tit kinh t v m ca NHTW
Tuy m hnh, cch thc hot ng c khc nhau, nhng nhn chung cc NHTW trn th gii u th hin
cc mc tiu gn ging nhau trong vic vn hnh, iu tit nn kinh t v m thng qua chnh sch tin t.
l:
-
Chnh sch tin t phi phc v cho mc ch m bo nn kinh t c tng trng kinh t thc t
(real economic grow)
Phi hng v vic n nh gi c: Gi c c t l lm pht thp l mc tiu ca mi nn kinh t. Khi

lm pht thp th mc thu nhp thc ca ngi dn dng, do vy i sng ngi lao ng tt hn,
nhn dn tin tng hn vo chnh quyn v chnh sch ca Nh nc v ngc li. Hay tm gn
trong phng chm ca cch iu hnh kinh t v m ca NHTW l tng trng nhanh vi gi c
n nh (high economic growth with stable economics)
Phi to ra mt nn tng ti chnh n nh (stable financial background)

Phi gp phn lin tc m rng sn lng tim nng (potential output) ca nn kinh t quc gia nh
t ai, ti nguyn thin nhin, ngun lc con ngi, tim nng khoa hc k thut v vn
Bng cc cng c ca chnh sch tin t sau m Ngn hng Trung ng c th thc hin c cc mc tiu
trn
4.2 Cc cng c iu tit
Thng thng, khi iu tit v m ca NHTW c th hin ch iu tit cung ng tin ph hp, thng
thng qua cc mc tiu trung gian (intermediate targets), ph bin nht l li sut t gi hi i v d tr.
c th hin tm lc qua biu iu tit v m ca NHTW sau y:
-
a/ Cng c th trng m (Open market operations):

y l cng c thng xuyn s dng nht, hiu qu nht, nh hng rng ri nht v c xem l quan
trng nht ca NHTW.
Nghip v th trng m c hai loi:
Trang 8
Loi c php mua hoc bn li chng khon vo nhng thi im nht nh sau khi nghip v
c tin hnh.
V loi khng c php mua hay bn li
C ch vn hnh nh sau:
Khi NHTW em chng khon ra th trng m bn NHTW thu tin mt hoc sc v lm:
-
Gim lng cung ng tin mt trong lu thng ca NHTW t gim kh nng v cng giao
dch trong nn kinh t
Khi NHTG mua chng khon (d bng sc hay tin mt) th d tr tin ca NHTG gim. Lm gim
kh nng cp pht tn dng ca cc NHTG, lm cung tin nn kinh t tht cht li
H ly l khi NHTW tung chng khon ra bn, cung chng khon tng cao, gi r lm li sut tng
ln. NHTG phi tng li sut tin gi, khng ngi dn s rt tin t ra mua Chng khon. Kt qu
l li sut tng, tin khan him. Lm gim t gi v gi c hng ha.
V ngc li
Phng thc iu hnh nn kinh t cn th hin trong 02 trng hp

-
Trng hp 01: Khi nn kinh t c lm pht cao v gia tng, NHTW cn gim khi lng tin cung
ng. NHTW s bn chng khon ra
Trng hp 02: Khi nn kinh t c du hiu suy thoi, tng trng chm, NHTW cn gia tng khi
lng tin cung ng. NHTW s mua chng khon ny vo
Nh vy, c cc mi quan h
-
T l nghch gia cung tin vi li sut
T l thun gia cung tin vi d tr
T l nghch gia cung tin vi t gi
T l thun gia cung tin vi lm pht
Trang 9
b/ Li sut cho vay chit khu (discount widow rates)

Hai hnh thc cho vay chit khu c NHTW quyt nh mc li sut l
-
Cho vay bnh thng vi k qu (collateral)
Cho vay di hnh thc cu cnh cho vay cui cng (lender of last resort)
Li sut cho vay chit khu c 02 tc dng, mt trc tip v mt gin tip.
-
Gin tip: Lm tng hay gim li sut cho vay ca NHTG, do tc ng n cung ng tin v tn
dng
Trc tip l lm tng hay gim d tr ca NHTG. Do vy, tc ng n lng cho vay tiu dng v
u t trong nn kinh t
Gi d tnh hung: NHTW tng li sut chit khu. H ly l vic li sut chit khu tng lm cho NHTG
khng th vay ca NHTW nhiu v d dng nh trc. NHTG phi gim bt cho vay m bo d tr tr
li. Nh vy:
-
Tc ng th nht l n trc tip lm tng d tr, gim cho vay v hu qu l tng cu, sn lng
gim theo, li sut cho vay tng ln
Tc ng th hai l n lm cho NHTG thc rng, trong trng hp khn cp cn vay nng
NHTW, NHTG phi tr li sut cao. iu ny buc NHTG t t nng li sut ln theo khi b
thit hi nng khi vay ca NHTW. Li sut tip tc tng, tht cht cung ng tin v tc ng n nn
kinh t
Phn ng ngc li cho cung tin, li sut, tiu dng khi NHTW gim li sut chit khu xung.
c/ D tr bt buc (reseves requirements)4
D tr khng vay mn (NBR) ca cc NHTG b tc ng bi nghip v th trng m. D tr vay mn
(BR) b tc ng bi li sut cho vay chit khu. Tuy nhin, d tr bt buc (RR) b tc ng trc tip bi t
l d tr bt buc quy nh ca NHTW.
Vi r: l t l % gia tin mt m nhn dn mun gi trong tay vi lng tin k gi ca h ti NHTG
R l d tr thc t ca cc ngn hng
Th tha s tin t (vit tt l TSTT hay Mm - Money Multiplier) trong cung ng tin ca NHTG c th
hin qua cng thc sau:
Tham kho thm trong ti liu Tin v hot ng ca Ngn hng L Vinh Danh xut bn 2009 t trang 129 n trang 134)
Trang 10
Vi r l t l gia lng tin mt m dn chng gi li chi tiu (C1) chia (:) cho tng s tin nhn dn k
gi trong ti khon khng k hn v tin ngn hng trong lu thng (D)
Gi nh r = 0%, tc t l tin mt ngi dn mun nm gi trong tay so vi lng tin gi ca h ti

NHTG bng 0% hay ngi dn gi tt c tin ca h vo ngn hng. Lc ny, tha s tin t c m t
bng cng thc sau:
Hay ni cch khc, xt trng hp Tha s tin t ph thuc hon ton vo t l d tr bt buc ca NHTW.
V d:
1
= 10 ln. Gi s, by gi t mt khon k
10%
gi (C2 5) l 1.000.000 VND th vi TSTT l 10 ln, NHTG s to ra mt bt t hay tng cung ng tin ngn
hng M1 6 = 1.000.000 VND * 10 ln = 10 triu ng
- NHTW quy nh t l d tr bt buc l 10%. Th TSTT =
- Nu cng vi mc tin gi , t l d tr bt buc l 20%, th TSTT =
1
= 5 ln, th bt t NHTG
20%
(bank-notes) ghi nhn lc ny M1 = 1.000.000 VND * 5 ln = 5 triu ng

Nh vy, s thay i t l d tr bt buc lm tng, gim nhanh chng M1, tng cung tin t v nh hng mt
cch su sc n gi c, tng cu v sn lng quc gia.
C hay c sch k hiu l MB (monetary base) = lng tin gi trong ngn hng (C2) + lng tin trong dn chng (C1). i khi
ngi ta gi s dn chng khng gi tin C1 = 0, th C2 cn c k hiu tt l C
6
M1 bao gm tin do NHTG to ra v lng tin mt nhn dn gi li trong tay tiu xi ch khng gi ht v ngn hng
- Trng hp 1: Dn chng khng gi tin C1 = 0 th M1 cng chnh l tng s tin nhn dn k gi trong ti khon khng
k hn hay tin ngn hng trong lu thng (D)
Trng hp 1: Dn chng gi tin mt C1 0 th M1 c tnh nh sau:
Trang 11
d/ Cung ng tin hay tin mt php nh (monetary base supply)

Ngoi vic c th lm tng gim c s tin t thng qua nghip v th trng m v cho vay chit khu,
NHTW c th trc tip tng gim c s tin t, tc l lm tng gim d tr v cung ng tin, bng cc
nghip v trn th trng ngoi t v nghip v cho vay vi chnh ph. Nh l:
Khi NHTW tung tin mt ra mua ngoai t trn th trng ngoi t, n lm tng ngay c s tin t,
nng t gi ln cao (ngha l ph gi ng ni t). Cung ng tin tng th lp tc b bnh trng
Hay, khi NHTW em bn ngoi t, n tht cht c s tin t, gim nhanh cung ng tin, h t gi
xung thp hn (ngha l tng ng tin ni t)
Khi NHTW thc hin nghip v vi Chnh ph, n cng lm thay i c s tin t. Vo nhng lc m ngn
sch chnh ph (budget deficit), nhu cu vay mn ca khu vc cng (Public sector borrowing
requirements) PSBR pht sinh, NHTW thng phi cho chnh ph vay tin. Lng tin n cho vay lm
tng c s tin t v tng cung ng tin trong nn kinh t thng qua vic chi tiu ca Chnh ph.
n lc Ngn sch thng d, NHTW i n v chnh ph tr n. Mt lng ln tin mt ca chnh ph (do
nhn dn np thu) c NHTW rt v. C s tin t gim v cung ng tin t trong lu thng gim
e/ Kim sot tn dng (selective credit controls):
Bng vic theo di cc hng mc ti sn khc nhau ca h thng NHTG, NHTW gin tip thay i lu
lng cp pht tn dng tiu dng, u t t ngn hn sang trung hn hoc ngc li. T , n gin tip
iu tit cung ng tn dng. Chng hn, thay i t l tng trng tn dng, kim sot cc khon vay ln ca
NHTG,
5. V chnh sch li sut ca ngn hng trung ng Vit Nam (SBV)
5.1 Gii thiu v Ngn hng Nh nc Vit Nam
Nm 1951, nh du bng vic Ch tch H Ch Minh k Sc lnh s 15/SL thnh lp Ngn hng Quc gia
Vit Nam vi cc nhim v ch yu l: Qun l vic pht hnh giy bc v t chc lu thng tin t, qun
l Kho bc nh nc, thc hin chnh sch tn dng pht trin sn xut, phi hp vi mu dch qun l
tin t v u tranh tin t vi ch. Sau , thng 01/1960, i tn thnh Ngn hng Nh nc Vit Nam.
Hin nay, Ngn hng Nh nc Vit Nam hot ng theo Lut ngn hng Nh nc Vit Nam s
46/2010/QH12 ngy 16 thng 06 nm 2010, c hiu lc thi hnh t ngy 01 thng 01 nm 2011.
Theo , Ngn hng Nh nc Vit Nam (tn ting Anh l State Bank of Vietnam) l c quan ngang b ca
Chnh ph, l Ngn hng trung ng ca nc Cng ho x hi ch ngha Vit Nam; Ngn hng Nh nc
l php nhn, c vn php nh thuc s hu nh nc, c tr s chnh ti Th H Ni;
Trang 12
5.2 Vai tr v chc nng ca NHNN Vit Nam:

Nhim v:
-
Hot ng ca Ngn hng Nh nc nhm n nh gi tr ng tin; bo m an ton hot ng

ngn hng v h thng cc t chc tn dng; bo m s an ton, hiu qu ca h thng thanh ton
quc gia; gp phn thc y pht trin kinh t - x hi theo nh hng x hi ch ngha
Xy dng ch tiu lm pht hng nm Chnh ph trnh Quc hi quyt nh v t chc thc hin
T chc h thng thng k, d bo v tin t v ngn hng; cng khai thng tin v tin t v ngn
hng theo quy nh ca php lut
T chc in, c, bo qun, vn chuyn tin giy, tin kim loi; thc hin nghip v pht hnh, thu
hi, thay th v tiu hu tin giy, tin kim loi.
Cp, sa i, b sung, thu hi giy php thnh lp v hot ng ca t chc tn dng
V mt s chc nng, nhim v khc c quy nh chi tit trong iu 4. Nhim v, quyn hn ca
Ngn hng Nh nc ti Lut Ngn hng Nh nc s 46/2010/QH12 ngy 16/06/2010
S t chc Ngn hng Nh nc Vit Nam
Trang 13
Ngun: Ngn hng Nh nc Vit Nam

Hot ng ca Ngn hng Nh nc Vit Nam
o Thc hin chnh sch tin t Quc gia:
Thng c Ngn hng quyt nh vic s dng cng c thc hin chnh sch tin t quc gia, bao gm ti
cp vn, li sut, t gi hi oi, d tr bt buc, nghip v th trng m v cc cng c, bin php khc
theo quy nh ca Chnh ph.
o Pht hnh tin giy, tin kim loi:
Ngn hng Nh nc l c quan duy nht pht hnh tin giy, tin kim loi ca nc Cng ho x hi ch
ngha Vit Nam
o Cho vay, bo lnh v tm ng cho Ngn sch:
Ngn hng Nh nc xem xt, quyt nh cho vay c bit i vi t chc tn dng trong cc trng hp
sau y:
-
T chc tn dng lm vo tnh trng mt kh nng chi tr, e do s n nh ca h thng cc t

chc tn dng;
T chc tn dng c nguy c mt kh nng chi tr do s c nghim trng khc.
Khng bo lnh cho t chc, c nhn vay vn, tr trng hp bo lnh cho t chc tn dng vay vn
nc ngoi theo quyt nh ca Th tng Chnh ph.
Ngn hng Nh nc tm ng cho ngn sch trung ng x l thiu ht tm thi qu ngn sch
nh nc theo quyt nh ca Th tng Chnh ph. Khon tm ng ny phi c hon tr trong
nm ngn sch, tr trng hp c bit do U ban thng v Quc hi quyt nh
o Hot ng thanh ton v k qu:
Ngn hng Nh nc t chc, qun l, vn hnh, gim st h thng thanh ton quc gia, lm i l cho Kho
bc Nh nc trong vic t chc u thu, pht hnh, lu k v thanh ton tn phiu kho bc, tri phiu kho
bc
o Qun l ngoi hi v hot ng ngoi hi:
-
Ngn hng Nh nc t chc qun l ngoi hi v s dng ngoi hi trn lnh th Vit Nam;
Cp, thu hi giy php hot ng ngoi hi cho t chc tn dng, cc t chc khc c hot ng ngoi
hi;
Trnh Th tng Chnh ph quyt nh bin php hn ch giao dch ngoi hi bo m an ninh ti
chnh, tin t quc gia;
T chc, qun l, tham gia th trng ngoi t lin ngn hng.
Trang 14
o Hot ng thng tin, bo co:

Ngn hng nh nc tin hnh thu thp ly d liu xy dng Bng cn i tin t, xy dng cn cn
thanh ton ca Vit Nam v nh gi, d bo xu hng pht trin ca th trng tin t nhm phc v vic
xy dng v iu hnh chnh sch tin t quc gia, cng tc qun l ngoi hi.,
Trong rt nhiu cc bin php m NHTW, Vit Nam gi l Ngn hng nh nc (gi tt l NHNN) dng
iu hnh chnh sch tin t, th cng c li sut c s dng nhiu nht. Trong phn nghin cu tiu
lun ny, nhm s tp trung su hn vo cng c iu hnh chnh sch ca NHNN Vit nam l li sut.
Phn tip theo chng ta s tm hiu nhng khi nim s lc v li sut
5.3 L lun chung v li sut
5.3.1 Khi nim v phn loi li sut
Li sut (Interest Rate) l t l % gia tin li (hay chi ph phi tr) trn mt s lng tin nht nh
c c quyn s hu v quyn s dng tin y trong khong thi gian tha thun
Hay l khong chnh lch gia lng tin c nhn hm nay v lng tin tng cng phi tr trong
tng lai, chnh l tin li hay chi ph c quyn s hu lng tin y trong khong thi gian t ngy
nhn n ngy tr
John Maynard Keynes 7lp lun rng li sut l mt hin tng tin t phn nh mi quan h gia cung v cu v
tin. Cung tin c xc nh mt cch ngoi sinh, cu tin phn nh cc nhu cu u c, phng nga v giao
dch v tin.
5.3.2 Cc loi li sut thng gp
-
Li sut c bn: l li sut gc cc t chc tn dng cn c vo hoc tham chiu m hnh thnh
li sut kinh doanh ca mnh. Vit Nam, li sut c bn do NHNN quy nh
Li sut chit khu: p dng khi ngn hng cho khch hng vay di hnh thc chit khu thng
phiu hoc cc giy t c gi khc cha n hn thanh ton ca khch hng. N c tnh bng t l
phn trm trn mnh gi ca giy t c gi
Li sut ti chit khu: p dng khi NHTW ti cp vn cho cc ngn hng di hnh thc chit khu
li cc thng phiu hay cc giy t c gi ngn hn cha n hn thanh ton cho cc ngn hng . N
c tnh bng t l % trn mnh gi ca giy t c gi v cng c khu tr ngay khi NHTW cp
vn tin vay cho NHTM
Li sut ti cp vn: ti cp vn l hnh thc ngn hng Nh nc cp tn dng c bo m cho cc

ngn hng nhm cung ng vn ngn hn. Nh vy li sut ti cp vn l li sut c s dng trong
trng hp NHNN ti cp vn cho cc ngn hng
Li sut lin ngn hng: L li sut cho vay ln nhau gia cc ngn hng c hnh thnh trn th
trng tin t.
John Maynard Keynes (1883 1946) l mt nh kinh t hc ngi Anh. Nhng tng ca ng, hnh thnh nn Kinh t hc
Keynes, c nh hng ln ti kinh t hc hin i v chnh tr cng nh cc chnh sch ti chnh ca nhiu chnh ph
Trang 15
Li sut danh ngha: l li sut tnh theo gi tr danh ngha ca tin t hay ni cch khc l loi li sut
cha loi tr i t l lm pht
Li sut thc: l li sut iu chnh li cho ng theo nhng thay i v lm pht, hay ni cch khc,
l loi li sut loi tr i t l lm pht
Li sut thc = Li sut danh ngha T l lm pht (d kin)
5.3.3 Cch thc qun l li sut

a/ C nh li sut:
L li sut c n nh mt mc c th trn Hp ng, khng chu tc ng ca nhng bin ng li sut
th trng. Li sut ny s khng thay i trong sut thi gian vay vn ti Ngn hng. Thng thng p
dng trong cho vay ngn hn
u im:
-
D tnh c chnh xc s tin li phi thanh ton cho Ngn hng trong sut thi gian vay, t
to thun li trong vic hoch nh ti chnh cng nh cn i ngun cho chnh khch hng
Khng b tc ng ca bin ng li sut trn th trng
Nhc im:
-
Trong trng hp li sut bin ng gim so vi thi im khch hng vay vn th khch hng
vn phi thanh ton li cho Ngn hng theo li sut c (c nh trong hp ng), cao hn li sut
hin ti ca th trng.
b/ Li sut th ni:
L li sut c iu chnh theo tng thi k, bin i theo thi gian. Mc iu chnh v k iu chnh li
sut s theo tha thun gia khch hng v ngn hng (khng tri vi Php lut) v c quy nh r trn
Hp ng. Thng thng p dng cho vay trung v di hn.
Trong li sut th ni c 02 loi:
-
Li sut th ni hon ton th li sut c xc nh hon ton da trn cung cu ca th trng m

khng h c s can thip no ca nh nc.
Li sut th ni c s iu chnh ca nh nc th li sut vn c xc nh da trn quy lut cung

cu nhng vn c s iu chnh ca nh nc. y cng l hnh thc li sut m nc ta ang p
dng
u im:
-
p dng li sut th ni s ph hp hn trong iu kin nn kinh t th trng c nhiu bin

ng
Trong trng hp li sut th trng bin ng gim th s tin li khch hng thanh ton cho
Ngn hng trong k iu chnh s thp hn
Trang 16
Nhc im:
-
Khch hng ch c th d tnh c chnh xc s tin li phi thanh ton cho Ngn hng trong k
u tin, bt u k th 2 tr i li sut thay i theo th trng v vy khch hng s kh khn
trong vic ch ng v mt ti chnh.
Trng hp li sut th trng bin ng tng so vi thi im vay th s tin li khch hng
phi thanh ton cho Ngn hng nhiu hn (v phi chu iu chnh mc li sut cao hn)
5.3.4 Cc nhn t nh hng n li sut

a/ Thi gian o hn:
Mi khon vay khc nhau thi gian o hn s dn n nhng mc li sut p dng cho n khc nhau. Thng
thng, ngi ta phn li sut thnh 02 loi
-
Li sut ngn hn (short term interest rate): C thi gian di 1 nm.
Li sut trung - di hn (long-term interest rate): C thi gian di hn 01 nm.
b/ Kh nng thanh khon:

Kh nng thanh khon ch v mc nhanh hay chm ca vic chuyn mt ti sn tr li thnh tin nhanh hay
chm m ch mt cht t hoc khng mt chi ph no c. y l nhn t th 2 nh hng n li sut. V
nhng ti sn c thanh khon cao, li sut ca n thng thp n rt thp. Ngc li, nhng ti sn thanh
khon km thng c li sut cao hn v chi ph chuyn i ca n cng cao, v cng v vi thi gian di,
s n nh ca ti sn s to ra li nhun cao
c/ Ri ro:
Ngoi kh nng thanh khon (Liquidity), ri ro (Risk) cng l nhn t lm tng hoc gim li sut ti sn ca ngn
hng v nn kinh t. Nhn t ny hnh thnh loi chi ph ri ro m ngn hng v cc nh u t khc phi tnh n
cho cc trng hp vn u t b mt gi, vn khng thu hi c v ni nhn u t b ph sn, v n, li tc tr
nn m v gi c tng nhanh
d/ Chi ph qun l ti sn:
Ngn hng c rt nhiu loi ti sn c d qun l v d thu hi vn nh tin mt, cho vay d tr, hng ha d
bn, hay cc khon cho vay hoc u t ngn hn khc. Nhng cng c rt nhiu loi ti sn kh qun l, theo
di. Vi cc loi ti sn ny s tn km chi ph qun tr hn, cc ngn hng phi tnh thm chi ph qun l ti
sn vo li sut v iu ng nhin l li sut p dng cho nhng loi ti sn ny cng s cao hn.
e/ Lm pht:
Lm pht l k th ca li sut. Lm pht lm gim gi tr tin chng ta nhn c. Trong phn chng ta
quan tm thm n li sut thc v li sut danh ngha. Theo
-
Li sut danh ngha (Nominal Interest Rate) hay NIR l li sut ca ti sn trn n v tin t
Trang 17
Li sut thc li sut thc (Real Interest Rate) hay RIR, ch ra gi tr thc s c tng ln (hay
gi tr thc s thu c) t mt hot ng u t
Gi
l t l % ca lm pht trong cng thi gian hot ng u t, th RIR v NIR c din t
bng cng thc sau
f/ Cung tin t:
Cung cu tin t l tng th tin t c s dng giao dch thanh ton trn th trng.
Thng qua cc cng c ca chnh sch tin t m nh nc thc hin chnh sch tht cht tin t hay ni
lng tin t.
- chnh sch tht cht tin t m mc ch chnh ca n l lm cho cung tin t gim dn n khan
him tin, vic vay mn kh khn hn lm li sut tng ln.
- V ngc li chnh sch ni lng tin t thng p dng kch thch tng trng kinh t, th
lng cung tin bm vo nn kinh t tng ln nht l trong tnh trng suy thoi kinh t, dn n vic
tip cn ngun tin d hn, chi ph vay vn r hn, li sut gim
Trn y l nhng c s l thuyt lin quan n hot ng ca NHTW hay NHNN, v li sut. hiu r
hn biu hin hay cch thc m NHNN Vit Nam p dng trong thi gian qua, chng ta s cng bc vo
Chng 2 Thc t iu hnh li sut ca Ngn hng nh nc Vit Nam hiu r hn c ch vn
hnh cc cng c ca th trng tin t, c bit l cng c li sut
Trang 18
CHNG II
THC T IU HNH LI SUT CA NGN HNG NH NC VIT NAM (SBV)
1. Tm lc din bin chnh ca vic iu hnh li sut ca Ngn hng Nh nc qua tng thi k
Ty tng giai on c im ca tng thi k m NHNN a ra cch thc iu hnh chnh sch khc nhau.
Theo , qua tm hiu v tng kt nhm xin a ra cc giai on chnh ca c ch iu hnh chnh sch li
sut ca NHNN nh sau
1.1 C ch thc thi chnh sch li sut c nh8 (Giai on t 1986 n thng 5/1992)
y c coi l giai on khc nghit nht ca khng ch ngnh ngn hng m cn c ngnh kinh t, vo
nhng nm u 1986 1988, lm pht mc 03 con s (nm 1986 l 774,7%; nm 1987 l 323,1%, nm
1988 l 393%). Vo giai on ny c th ni khng hong trm trng nn kinh t, ngi nng dn, cng
nhn cng sn xut cng l, ngi ta cn c cu ca ming l Bn tru tu g, ngha l ai bn 01 con
tru i, ri em gi tit kim, nm sau rt ra c gc v li ch 01 con g.
Nm 1989, Vit Nam khng nhng nh du bng vic b ch tem phiu lng thc, m ln u tin sn
xut c 24,4 triu tn thc v xut khu c 1,4 triu tn go - ng th 3 trn th gii sau Thi Lan v
M. V cng l nm nh du thng du th th 1 triu t M Bch H ti Qun o Trng Sa. Tuy nhin,
nng lc t chc sn xut yu km, km vi kiu chy theo phong tro v sn xut bt c gi no y
kinh t vo suy thoi, nn tha, tn kho cc ln, ngi nng dn v cng nhn tht nghip, V cng
ln u tin cm t lm pht c s dng trong cc phn tch kinh t v m Vit Nam
Ngoi ra, giai on ny nh du bng vic gi tr ng ni t mt gi trm trng, nu nh nm 1985 t
gi VND/USD l 15/1USD th sang nm 1986 l 180/USD; 1987 l 550/USD; 1988 l 950 /USD;
1989: 4.500/USD; 1990: 7.500/USD!
Ngy 26/03/1988, Ngh nh 53/HBT ca Hi ng B trng v t chc, b my Ngn hng Nh nc
Vit Nam cng ra i nh du bc chuyn bin u tin ca ngnh Ngn hng. Tuy nhin, thi k
ny, vn iu l bnh qun mi NHTM Nh nc hi ch mc 200 t ng (tng ng 44,5 triu
USD theo t gi bnh qun nm 1989: 4.500/USD), cc ngn hng c t chc thnh 02 cp: cp qun l
nh nc do NHNN m nhim v cp hch ton kinh doanh do cc ngn hng chuyn doanh m nhim
di s ch huy thng nht ca Tng Gim c NHNN. Lng vn khng cung cho nn kinh t, d n
vn lu ng ca h thng Ngn hng chuyn doanh ca Nh nc cp cho cc n v kinh t quc doanh
tng rt mnh: Cui nm 1987 con s ny l 400 t ng tng gp 3,6 ln so vi cui nm 1986; nm 1988
l 1.718 t ng, gp 4,3 ln so vi cui nm 1987. Tnh trng n n hn tr ngy cng tng cao trong khi
cc khon phi thu hu nh khng thu hi c v ng hn, lm cho cc Ngn hng, HTX tn dng v
QTD ng trn b vc thm v mt kh nng thanh ton.
Tham kho Bi vit Ngn hng Vit Nam giai on 1986 - 1990: Trang s khc nghit ca TS. Nguyn i Lai - Tp ch
kinh t v d bo (2009)
Trang 19
Trc tnh th , mt liu php sc ca NHNN Vit Nam c xut u nm 1989 bng cch t
ngt tng li sut huy ng ln n 10% v 12%/thng (144%/nm), ng thi cho php m rng nhp khu
hng ho, kinh doanh vng. Kt qu l ch trong vng 2 n 3 thng u nm 1989 s d huy ng tit kim
dng cao hn doanh s tit kim lu k trong 10 nm trc ; gi vng v gi USD gim ln lt 43%
v 30% so vi thng 1/1989; lm pht gim r rt
Vi mc tiu kim ch lm pht, chng suy thoi kinh t nn giai on ny cn c gi l giai on c ch
iu hnh li sut c nh. Giai php ca NHNN giai on ny cng li mt tiu cc, Kinh doanh ca
Ngn hng tr thnh vng lun qun: Huy ng tit kim mi tr n khon phi tr c vi li sut bng
hoc cao hn. Ngn hng tr nn thua l hn bao gi ht vo cui 1990 v c nm 1991. L do n gin l
ngi vay khng th to li nhun tr li qu cao cho ngn hng. Tng tht thot ln ti hn 2.000 t
ng, tng ng vi gn 0,5 t USD = 4,2% GDP ca Vit Nam nm 1989 v ko di vic x l cho n
mt s nm tip theo.
Di y l bng li sut tn dng giai on 1989 1990
Vi chnh sch thc cht li sut m li sut dn c iu chnh ph hp vi iu kin kinh t x hi v

chn ngc siu lm pht vo nm 1989 vi mc lm pht 35%.
n nm 1991, c ch thc thi li sut c nh bc l r nt nhng hn ch ca n, lm tng tnh li
ca cc doanh nghip Nh nc, khng khuyn khch h lm n chiu qu, l th c Nh nc chu.
1.2 C ch iu hnh khung li sut (Giai on t thng 06/1992 n nm 1995)
c trng ca c ch ny l NHNN iu hnh c ch li sut theo khung li sut,quy nh r sn li sut
tin gi v trn li sut cho vay i vi nn kinh t. Cc ngnhng thng mi, cc t chc tn dng cn c
khung li sut ca ngn hng thng mi a ra cc li sut thch hp cho mnh. Thi k ny, li sut cho
Trang 20
vay bnh qun > li sut tin gi bnh qun > t l lm pht. Hay ni cch khc l NHNN mun duy tr li
sut thc dng trong giai on ny.
ng thi khng c s phn bit gia cc thnh phn kinh t, mi doanh nghip u bnh ng, do vy mt
phn hn ch c s tr tr ca nn kinh t, c im ca khu vc kinh t Nh nc.
Din bin li sut giai on ny c th hin nh sau:
Bng din bin li sut bnh qun t nm 1985 n 1995
Tuy nhin, vic khng ch cht ch mc trn li sut cho vay mc thp khuyn khch vic vay mn
trn th trng t do cng nh nhng tiu cc trong c chcho vay ca ngn hng. Li sut tin gi lin tc
tng, li sut cho vay b khng ch trn khin cho li nhun ca ngn hng gim, kh nng ti chnh yu i
trong khi nn kinh tang trn tng trng vi nhng nhu cu v vn rt ln. C th thy, c ch ny
khng cn ph hp
1.3 C ch iu hnh li sut trn (Giai on t nm 1996 n thng 07/2000)
Vi mc tiu t do ha li sut huy ng v linh hot hn trong trn li sut cho vay. M NHNN p dng
mc trn li sut cho vay, hay bin li sut ti a c cho vay. ng thi, mc li sut ti cp vn c
iu chnh linh hot hn, ph hp vi ch s lm pht, quan h cung cu vn trn th trng.
Giai on 1996 1997, NHNN p mc li sut cho vay ti a l 0,35%/thng so vi li tin gi. Quy nh
ny to s mt cng bng gia cc Ngn hng bi l cch thc huy ng v chi ph huy ng vn ca cc
ngn hng khc nhau. Nn quy nh ny ti 1997 th b bi b. Sang u nm 1998, vi quyt nh
39/1998/Q-NHNN, cho php trn li sut cho vay tng thm 1%/thng ln mc mi l 1,2%/thng, cho
vay trung di hn t mc 1,1%/thng ln mc 1,25%/thng.
Sang nm 1999, nn kinh t c du hiu thiu pht, nhm kch thch tng trng kinh t, kch cu, NHNN
lin tc iu chnh gim li sut, li sut cui nm gim 0,35% - 4% so vi u nm.
-
Cho vay khu vc thnh th : 0,85% /thng
Cho vay khu vc nng thn : 1%/thng
V cng trong nm 1999, thng 11/1999, nghip v chit khu v ti chit khu giy t c gi c
b sung vocc cng c iu hnh li sut. n 7/2000, NHNN a vo s dng nghip v th trng m
Trang 21
vi li sut c hnh thnh qua cc phin giao dch theo quan h cung cu. C ch li sut ny gp
phn duy tr s tng trng kinh t, kim sot lm pht, n nh sc mua ca VND
Trong c ch ny, tn ti nhng bt cp sau:
-
NHNN khng cho gim li sut i vi cc khon cho vay trc, dn n vic Ngi dn i vay
ngn hng khc vi li sut thp hn, p vo khon vay c li sut cao hn. Ri ro li sut lun
t gnh nng ln vai cc NHTM do mc chnh lch gia huy ng v cho vay l nh.
Vic chnh ph ch nh cho vay khc phc hu qu thin tai vi mc li sut 0,5 /thng i vi cho
vay ngn hn, 0,6%/thng i vi trung v di hn. Lm cho NHTM quc doanh l, khng c khon
thu nhp, huy ng thp, ri ro tn dng khng ngun b p. Cc ngn hng khng cn hng hi
cho vay
Trong giai on ny, cn xut hin hin tng nhiu ngn hng hu y ng vnngn hn
cho vay trung v di hn, ri ro thanh ton rt cao khi c dng tin rt ra
1.4 C ch iu hnh li sut c bn km bin (Giai on t nm 2000 n thng 05/2002)

Sang nm 2000, trc nhng bt cp trn, NHNN bt u s dng Li sut c bn9 (gi tt l LSCB) vo
iu hnh li sut. Hng thng NHNN cng b LSCB cn c vo li sut cho vay thng mi tt nht ca
mt nhm cc t chc tn dng chim phn ln th phn tn dng v mt bin thch hp lm cn c
cho vic n nh li sut cho vay ca cc t chc tn dng,trong trng hp cn thit, NHNN s
cng b iu chnh kp thi. LSCB u tin c cng b vo ngy 30 thng 5 nm 2000.
Ngy 30/5/2002, NHNN ban hnh quyt nh s 546/2002/Q-NHNN v vic thc hin c ch li sut tha
thun trong hot ng tn dng thng mi bng ng Vit Nam ca t chc tn dng i vi khch hng.
Theo , nhng khon vay c hoc chun b gii ngn th p dng theo li sut c, nhng khon vay mi s
dng li sut c bn cng b ca NHNN lm tham kho mc li sut cho vay thng mi i vi khch
hng tt nht ca nhm cc t chc tn dng c la chn theo Quyt nh ca Thng c. Mc li sut
cho vay khng c vt qu 150% li sut c bn.10
Li sut c bn l li sut do NHTW cng b lm c s cho cct chc tn dng n nh li sut kinh doanh
Theo khon 2 iu 11 ca Quyt nh s 1627/2001/Q-NHNN ngy 31/12/2001
10
Trang 22
Mc li sut trong thi k ny l:
Vi cch iu hnh ny gip cc t chc tn dng n nh li sut mt cc ph hp vi iu kin kinh

doanh v mc ri ro c th, ng thi NHNN kim sot c li sut cho vay. Nhng li sut c bn
ny nh u cho cc loi hnh t chc tn dng (tr Qu tn dng nhn dn c s) hay c im thnh th,
nng thng. Ch khc nhau gia li sut ngn hn hay trung di hn.
C th thy chnh sch li sut thi k ny tin gn n cc nguyn tc li sut th trng hn, NHNNVN
quyt tm i mi chnh sch li sut theo hng t do ha v tng bc gn li sut trong nc vo th
trng khu vc v th gii.Vic s dng LSCB lm tham chiu khi cp tn dng ca cc t chc tn dng
chnh l bc chun b cho t do ha li sut hon ton sau ny
1.5 C ch li sut tha thun (T giai on nm 2002 n thng 5/2008)
Mt quyt nh mang tnh bc ngot trong iu hnh li sut l Quyt nh 546 ca NHNN ngy
30/5/2002 (hiu lc 01/06/2002) th cc t chc tn dng xc nh li sut cho vay bng ng Vit Nam
trn c s cung cu vn th trng v mc tn nhim i vi khch hng vay. LSCB lc ny ch mang
tnh tham kho v nh hng li sut th trng
Sang u nm 2003, c ch iu hnh li sut tip tc c iu chnh, theo li sut ti cp vn ng vai
tr l li sut trn, li sut ti chit khu l li sut sn trn th trng tin t lin ngn hng, li sut th
trng m l cng c iu hnh thng xuyn ca NHNN. Li sut cho vay qua m c p dng trong
thanh ton in t lin ngn hng v thanh ton b tr, li sut tin gi ca cc t chc tn dng ti NHNN
ng vai tr lm phng tin thng xuyn iu tit li sut lin ngn hng
Trang 23
Vi quyt nh mang tnh lch s ny gip cc Ngn hng t ch hn trong hot ng ca mnh, nht l
trong vic huy ng, cho vay vn, li sut phn nh c cung cu th trng, khai thc trit tim nng,
sc mnh th trng,
Nhng vo thi , 04 Ngn hng :Ngn hng Ngoi thng Vit Nam - VCB, Ngn hng Nh ng bng
sng Cu Long -MHB, Ngn hng Cng thng Vit Nam - ICB v Ngn hng u t v Pht trin Vit
Nam BIDV chim 70% tng ti sn ca ton b h thng ngn hng, qun l khi lng ti sn khng l,
chim tng ng 15 - 20% GDP, m khch hng chnh li l Doanh nghip nh nc. Nn v bn cht c
ch li sut tha thun vn cha mang tnh th trng, theo ng quy lut cung cu.
Nm 2007, nh du bng t l lm pht phi m, t mc 02 con s l 12,63%, gi c tng mt cch chng
mt. Mt chnh sch tin t, c NHNN a ra kim ch lm pht l Quyt nh s 187/2008/QNHNN, NHNN s m rng din cc loi tin gi phi d tr bt buc, bao gm cc loi tin gi khng k
hn v c k hn, thay cho vic p dng d tr bt buc i vi tin gi khng k hn v c k hn t 24
thng tr xung trong thi gian qua. Tip l quyt nh s 346/Q-NHNN v vic pht hnh tn phiu
Ngn hng Nh nc bng tin ng di hnh thc bt buc i vi cc t chc tn dng nhm thu ht
20.300 t ng.
H qu ca n l vic khan him tin t li bt u, chy a li sut bt u, mc li sut ny ln n 15%16%/nm cao hn kh nhiu so vi li sut ti cp vn ca NHNN (13%/nm) v li sut ti chit khu
(11%/nm). Li sut huy ng lin tc tng dn n li sut cho vay cng tng theo t l thun khin h
thng ti chnh ngn hng mt an ton, cc doanh nghip u phi cn nhc li c cu vn ca mnh cng
nh cc d nh sn xut
u nm 2008, trong mt lot cc bin php kim ch lm pht, NHNN a ra Quyt nh s
187/2008/Q-NHNN v vic tng t l d tr bt buc nhm rt bt tin t lu thng v, ch ng kim
sot tc tng tng phng tin thanh ton v tng trng d n tn dng ph hp vi cc mc tiu kinh t
v m. Sang thng 02/2008, Ngn hng Nh nc quy nh trn li sut huy ng l 12%/nm theo cng
in s 02/C-NHNN ngy 26/02/2008 nhm hn ch cuc ua ny. Ti thng 05/2008, NHNN ban hnh
Quyt nh s 16/2008/Q-NHNN v c ch iu hnh li sut c bn bng ng Vit Nam, theo , cc t
chc tn dng n nh li sut kinh doanh (li sut huy ng v li sut cho vay) bng ng Vit Nam
khng vt qu 150% ca li sut c bn do Ngn hng Nh nc cng b p dng trong tng thi k
Trang 24
Nm 2008 chng kin s bin ng mnh ca li sut vi s iu hnh chnh sch tin t, nht l nghip v
th trng m c thc hin theo c hai hng m rng v tht cht tin t khng to tc ng ng k
no ti li sut. Trong tun th ba ca thng 2-2008, NHNN b sung 33.000 t ng vo lu thng nhng
cc ngn hng thng mi vn tip tc tng li sut huy ng tin gi. Ngy 30-6-2008, Ngn hng Kin
Long p dng li sut huy ng tin ng cao k lc l 20%/nm cho khch hng gi tin k hn 12 thng.
Ngy 30-6-2008, Ngn hng Kin Long p dng li sut huy ng tin ng cao k lc l 20%/nm cho
khch hng gi tin k hn 12 thng. Cui thng 6-2008, 2 t ng tri phiu chnh ph k hn 2 nm vi li
sut 11%/nm c huy ng thnh cng.
Din bin li sut c biu din bng th sau
Nm 2008, cn nh du bng cuc i suy thoi kinh t th gii m khi ngun t cuc khng hong tn
dng M din ra vo thng 8/2007 ngy cng r nt. C ch li sut tha thun bc r nhng hn ch ca
n i hi phi c c ch mi iu hnh chnh sch.
1.6 C ch iu hnh da vo li sut c bn, trn li sut huy ng v li sut tha thun: Giai on
2009 n nay
Trc tin, chng ta cng nhn li nhng thay i trong li sut c bn, li sut ti cp vn, li sut chit
khu qua cc thi k bng th di y.
Trang 25
Din bin cc li sut ca NHNN t 2000 n 2012
16.00%
14.00%
12.00%
10.00%
8.00%
6.00%
4.00%
2.00%
LS c bn (YoY)
Li sut chit khu (YoY)
Li sut ti cp vn (YoY)
Oct-11
Apr-11
Oct-10
Apr-10
Oct-09
Apr-09
Oct-08
Apr-08
Oct-07
Apr-07
Oct-06
Apr-06
Oct-05
Apr-05
Oct-04
Apr-04
Oct-03
Apr-03
Oct-02
Apr-02
Oct-01
Apr-01
Oct-00
Apr-00
0.00%
Ngun: Tng hp t NHNN
S dng thng k m t trong excel ta c kt qu sau:

LS c bn (YoY)
Mean
Standard Error
Median
Mode
Standard Deviation
Sample Variance
Kurtosis
Skewness
Range
Minimum
Maximum
Sum
Count
8.412%
0.001497656
8.250%
8.250%
0.015346404
0.000235512
6.018637356
2.448476686
0.07
0.07
0.14
8.8328
105
Li sut chit
khu (YoY)
5.735%
0.002574992
4.800%
4.500%
0.026385814
0.000696211
2.140705173
1.737897157
0.1
0.03
0.13
6.022
105
Li sut ti cp
vn (YoY)
7.543%
0.002607044
6.500%
6.500%
0.026714249
0.000713651
1.926984313
1.650766643
0.102
0.048
0.15
7.92
105
Li sut cho vay

thc t trung bnh
(YoY)
13.221%
0.00428098
13.009%
13.500%
0.02839681
0.000806379
-0.351561098
0.384715658
0.110581071
0.0830625
0.193643571
5.81702315
44
T bng trn trong giai on ny li sut c bn trung bnh 8.412%, li sut chit khu l 5.735%, li sut
ti cp vn l 7.543%, li sut thc t11 l 13.221%. T thng 11/2001 n thng 11/2010, Thng c
NHNN Vit Nam thay i
11
D liu li sut thc t trung bnh, tng hp t 10 ngn hng khc nhau vi 38 hp ng tn dng khc nhau t nm 2008 n
nm 2012.
Trang 26
Li sut c bn nhiu ln gm cc mc ni bt l: 7,8%/nm (01/05/2001); 8,25%/nm

(01/12/2005); 8,75%/nm (01/02/2008); 12%/nm (19/05/2008); 14%/nm (01/10/2008); 13%/nm
(21/10/2008); 12%/nm (05/11/2008); 11%/nm (21/11/2008); 10%/nm (05/12/2008); 8,5%/nm
(22/12/2008), 7%/nm (01/02/2009), 8%/nm (01/12/2009) v 9%/nm (05/11/2010).
Li sut ti chit khu t 13% (10/10/2011) 11% (05/11/2008) 12% (21/10/2008) 10%
(21/11/2008) 7,5% (22/12/2008) 6%/nm (01/03/2008)
Bng so snh cc lai li sut so vi vi li sut trung bnh thc t p dng cho doanh nghip
25.00%
20.00%
15.00%
10.00%
5.00%
LS c bn (YoY)
Li sut chit khu (YoY)
Li sut ti cp vn (YoY)
Li sut cho vay thc t trung bnh (YoY)
Dec-11
Apr-11
Aug-11
Dec-10
Apr-10
Aug-10
Dec-09
Apr-09
Aug-09
Dec-08
Apr-08
Aug-08
Dec-07
Apr-07
Aug-07
Dec-06
Apr-06
Aug-06
Dec-05
Apr-05
Aug-05
Dec-04
Apr-04
Aug-04
Dec-03
Apr-03
Aug-03
Dec-02
Apr-02
Aug-02
Dec-01
Apr-01
Aug-01
Dec-00
Aug-00
Apr-00
0.00%
Ngun: Tng hp t NHNN v tng hp t nhiu ngun
Nm 2010, nh du bng thng t s 13/2010/TT-NHNN ngy 20/5/2010 ca Thng c Ngn hng Nh

nc quy nh v cc t l bo m an ton trong hot ng ca t chc tn dng, v thng t s
19/2010/TT-NHNN ngy 27/09/2010 v sa i mt s iu ca thng t 13/2010/TT-NHNN ngy
20/5/2010. C th ni y l 02 thng t quan trng nht v nh hng rt ln n th trng ti chnh.
Trong thng t 13 v 19 ny c cc im chnh sau:
12
Nng h s an ton vn CAR t 8% ln 9%
T l cp hn mc tn dng khng c vt qu 80% (i vi ngn hng) v 85% (i vi t chc

tn dng phi ngn hng) tnh trn ngun vn huy ng c.12
Khon 2 iu 18 (sa i) ti thng t 19/2010/TT-NHNN ngy 27/09/2010
Trang 27
T l cho vay khng vt qu 80% vn huy ng (ng ch vn huy ng theo quy nh mi ny

s khng cn bao gm: Vn tin gi khng k hn ca t chc, vn t c ca NHTM, vn u t
ca t chc)
Huy ng trn th trng 213 ti a 20% s vn huy ng th trng 114
C nhiu quan im tri chiu nhau v tc ng ca hai thng t ny ln mt bng li sut v lm pht, c
quan im kim ch c lm pht, ngn chn ri ro mt thanh khon ca h thng, ng n trong giai di
hn v cng c quan im cho rng n lm cn tr bc gim li sut ca cc NHTM, v n lm cho vic
huy ng vn v cho vay tr nn kh khn hn, Vi thi im hiu lc l 1/10/2010, bt u qu cui
cng ca nm, v l do an ton hoc lm p bng cn i, s c mt ln sng cc ngn hng n lc tng
vn v bn chng khon (gim ti sn ri ro tng tin mt).
Kt thc nm 2010, kinh t v m bc l nhiu bt n, vi t l lm pht ln ti 11,75%, khc phc
tnh trng ny, ti hi ngh ca Chnh ph vi cc a phng, din ra ngy 30 31/12/2011. Chnh ph
pht i thng ip dn sc n nh kinh t v m trong nm 2011. Theo 03 gii php chnh l: Tht cht
chnh sch tin t, kim ch lm pht khng qu 7%, Khng ch nhp siu di 20%. Kt qu ca thng
ip ny c th hin rt r nt qua cc vn bn.
-
Thng t 02/2011/TT-NHNN ngy 3/3/2011 theo li sut huy ng vn bng ng Vit Nam (li
sut tin gi; li sut chng ch tin gi, k phiu, tn phiu v tri phiu) khng vt qu 14%/nm,
ring cc Qu Tn dng nhn dn c s khng vt qu 14,5%/nm
Thng t s 30/2011/TT-NHNN ngy 28/9/2011 quy nh li sut ti a i vi tin gi bng ng

Vit Nam ca t chc, c nhn ti TCTD, chi nhnh ngn hng nc ngoi, theo
o Li sut ti a p dng i vi tin gi khng k hn v c k hn di 1 thng l 6%/nm
o Li sut ti a p dng i vi tin gi c k hn t 1 thng tr ln l 14%/nm, ring Qu
tn dng nhn dn c s n nh mc li sut ti a i vi tin gi k hn 1 thng tr ln l
14,5%.
Ngh quyt s 01/NQ-CP ngy 03/01/2012 ca Chnh ph v nhng gii php ch yu ch o iu

hnh thc hin k hoch pht trin kinh t - x hi v d ton ngn sch Nh nc nm 2012 vi
mc tiu tip tc tp trung kim ch lm pht, n nh kinh t v m; tp trung thc hin cc nhim
v trng tm ti c cu nn kinh t, i mi m hnh tng trng theo hng nng cao hiu qu.
Vi nhng quy nh trn, p lc thanh khon khin cho li sut giai on ny vo cc im, cuc chy
ua li sut huy ng, trn li sut 14%, cc ngn hng t trong p lc thanh khon cao, li sut huy ng
vt trn 14%, xut hin tnh trng huy ng ngm, huy ng vi li sut ngoi ti cc Ngn hng. Li sut
cho vay tng cao, nh im c ni 25%-26%/nm. Quy nh v li sut cho vay trn khng vt qu 150%
13
Th trng 2 l th trng lin ngn hng, tc l gia cc NHTM vi nhau

Th trng 1 l th trng din ra hot ng huy ng v cho vay gia cc NHTM v ngi dn. Vic cho vay hay i vay th
trng lin ngn hng thng l do hi s NHTM thc hin, cn cc chi nhnh th ch lm nhim v huy ng v cho vay ca
ngi dn
14
Trang 28
li sut huy ng ti khon 2 iu 11 ca Quyt nh s 1627/2001/Q-NHNN ngy 31/12/2001, v lut

dn s 2005 dng nh b cc ngn hng lm l, ngn hng nh nc cng khng ch ti mnh, li sut
vay tr thnh li sut t tha thun gia Ngn hng v khch hng.
Vi vic ban hnh cc thng t, ngh quyt trn v cc ch th i km mt mt gp phn tt trong vic
kim ch lm pht, nhng tng trng tn dng gim ng k, t trng tn dng phi sn xut (bt ng sn,
chng khon, tiu dng) khng ch mc 16% theo Ngh quyt s 11/NQ-CP ngy 24 thng 2 nm 2011
v Ch th 01/CT-NHNN ngy 01 thng 03 nm 2011 ca Thng c NHNN.
Di y l bng tng trng tn dng ca mt s nhm ngnh.
Nm 2012, vi ngh quyt s 01/NQ-CP ngy 03/01/2012 ca Chnh ph v ch trng ti cu trc ngnh
Ngn hng, thng c Ngn hng ban hnh ch th s 01/CT-NHNN ngy 13/02/2012 v t chc thc
hin chnh sch tin t v m bo hot ng ngn hng an ton, hiu qu nm 2012, trong giao ch tiu
tng trng tn dng nm 2012 cho 04 nhm t chc tn dng:
-
Nhm 1, tng trng ti a 17%
Nhm 4, khng c tng trng
Trong , cc lnh vc khng khuyn khch th tng d n cho vay ti a l 16% trong tng d n
cho vay ca t chc tn dng trong sut c nm 2012, lnh vc gm
o Vay u t kinh doanh chng khon
o Cho vay tiu dng, tr cho vay i vi nhu cu vn xy dng, sa cha nh v mua nh
bng lng, tin cng
o u t, kinh doanh bt ng sn tr xy dng nh bn, cho thu cho ngi thu nhp thp,
cng nhn ti khu cng nghip, khu ch xut
Trang 29
o Nu t chc no vi phm th p dng t l d tr bt buc gp 02 ln so vi t l d tr bt

buc vi tin gi VND v cc bin php khc
Vi ch th v quy nh ny s m ra p lc ln n lm pht, li sut, hot ng ca Ngn hng, chng ta s
tm hiu thm sau ny.
2. Nghin cu nh lng tc ng ca li sut ln cc kha cnh ca cc yu t v m v nn kinh t
nc ta:
2.1 Mi quan h gia li sut v lm pht
a/ Tng quan kinh t v m nm 2011
Lm pht gim tc nhanh trong Q4.2011:
CPI gim tc nhanh trong qu 4, a lm pht tnh theo nm gim mnh t mc nh 23.02% trong
thng 08/2011 xung cn 18.13% vo cui thng 12/2011.
Mc d con s ny vn vt xa mc tiu 7-8% Chnh ph t ra u nm v gn st vi mc iu chnh

di 18% ca Chnh ph, tuy nhin cng thng v lm pht phn no c gim bt, th hin qua
CPI theo thng t thng 8 n cui nm u mc di 1%.
CPI 2011
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
01/11
03/11
C nc
05/11
07/11
H Ni
09/11
11/11
HCM
Ngun: Tng cc Thng k
Li sut :
Li sut huy ng hu ht cc ngn hng n nh mc trn 14% trong nhng thng cui nm.
Cng vi s gim tc trong lm pht, cc ngn hng c c s h li sut cho vay xung mc thp
hn nhm h tr cc doanh nghip trong nc. Theo , mc li sut cho vay ngn hn bnh qun
nhng thng cui nm mc khong 20%. Tuy vy, vic tip cn vi ngun vn vay vn kh kh
khn bi d n tn dng mc 12-13% vo cui nm c Nh nc cho l hp l
Trang 30
Li sut 2011
25
20
15
10
5
01/11
03/11
05/11
07/11
09/11
11/11
LS huy ng bnh qun VN

LS cho vay ngn hn bnh qun VN
Ngun: Ngn hng Nh nc
T gi:
Tri ngc vi xu hng t gi tng mnh vo cc thng cui nm do nhu cu nhp khu gia tng, t
gi lin ngn hng v t gi nim yt ca ngn hng li ch tng nh vo u thng 10 v sau n
nh trong sut qu 4, c bit t gi trn th trng ch en li gim dn v tng i n nh theo
st t gi nim yt ca NHTM.
n cui thng 12/2011, t gi trn th trng t do dao ng quanh mc 21,220 ng i ly 1

USD.
T gi USD/VN
23,000
21,000
19,000
17,000
15,000
T gi Lin Ngn hng
T gi NHTM
T gi th trng t do
Ngun: Reuters
Trang 31
Tng trng kinh t:
2011 l mt nm nn kinh t trong v ngoi nc vn i din vi rt nhiu kh khn.
iu ny th hin phn no qua k vng tng trng GDP ca Chnh ph vi con s mc tiu ngy cng
gim, t mc 6-6.5% u nm gim xung cn 6% vo gia nm v n 31/12/2011, GDP thc t c
nc ch tng trng 5.89% so vi cng k nm trc. y l mc thp nht k t nm khng hong ti
chnh ton cu 2008 n nay.
Real GDP
VND bill
GDP YoY
%
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
200,000
180,000
160,000
140,000
120,000
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Ngun: Tng cc Thng k
b/ Mi quan h gia li sut v lm pht

Cc bin kinh t v m c s tng tc vi nhau, theo mi lin h sau.
Lm pht
Li sut
Cn cn
thng
mi
u t
nc
ngoi
D tr
ngoi hi
Trang 32
Trong mi lin h ny ngi ta thng nhc n yu t lm pht (CPI) v li sut m ni cm l li sut huy
ng
Vn nghin cu:
-
Liu chng c mi quan h tuyn tnh gia li sut v lm pht khng? S thay i li sut huy ng
c gii thch bng bao nhiu % lm pht? C m hnh hi quy tuyn tnh no gia 02 bin ny
khng?
Cc bin s nghin cu sau

o CPI: % lm pht (Consumer Price Index)
o IR: % li sut huy ng (Interest rate)
Cch ly d liu s cp:
-
IR tnh bng %chnh lch cng k gia li sut huy ng ca tng thng (thng ny so vi thng
trc), d liu ly t 30/04/2007 n 23/02/2012 a vo hnh v, d liu a vo eview t
30/04/2008 ti 23/02/2012
CPI tnh theo nm, d liu ly t 31/01/2001 nm 23/02/2012 a vo hnh v, d liu a vo

eview t 30/04/2008 ti 23/02/2012
Phn mm p dng: Eview 4.1 chy m hnh

Bng biu din li sut v lm pht giai on t 31/01/2001 n 23/02/2012 nh sau:
Trang 33
Bng so snh CPI v Li sut huy ng
Bin ng li sut huy ng v CPI

30.00%
25.00%
20.00%
15.00%
10.00%
5.00%
Jan-12
Jul-11
Jan-11
Jul-10
Jan-10
Jul-09
Jan-09
Jul-08
Jan-08
Jul-07
Jan-07
Jul-06
Jan-06
Jul-05
Jan-05
Jul-04
Jan-04
Jul-03
Jan-03
Jul-02
Jan-02
Jul-01
Jan-01
0.00%
-5.00%
CPI YoY
% Deposit YoY
T nm 2007 n nay, li sut huy ng (IR) t nh theo tng nm ln lt l 8.50% (30/08/2007),

18.00% (30/06/2008), 10.49% (30/12/2009), 15.00% (30/12/2010), 14%(28/01/2011) v 14% (30/01/2012).
Cn lm pht (CPI) t nh ln lt l 12.63% (28/12/2007), 28.32% (30/01/2008), 17.48% (30/01/2009),
11.75% (30/12/2010), 23.02% (30/08/2011) v 17,27% (30/01/2012).
IR max
30.00%
CPI max
30/01/08, 28.32%
30/08/11, 23.02%
25.00%
20.00%
30/06/08, 18.00%
30/01/09, 17.48%
15.00%
30/01/12, 17.27%
30/12/10, 15.00%
28/01/11, 14.00%
28/12/07, 12.63%
30/12/09, 10.49%
10.00%
30/01/12, 14.00%
30/12/10, 11.75%
30/08/07, 8.50%
5.00%
0.00%
28/04/07
14/11/07
01/06/08
18/12/08
06/07/09
22/01/10
10/08/10
26/02/11
14/09/11
01/04/12
18/10/12
Cc mc thi gian t max ca IR v CPI t nm 2007 n 2012

Xt trong nm 2007 n 2012, th trung bnh IR t max trc CPI trong 2 thng. Ngha l tr ca CPI
sau IR l 2 thng. Vi mong mun a CPI phn nh tt vi IR, chng ta chy m hnh hi quy bng eview
vi CPI tr hn IR 02 thng (lm pht tr so vi li sut l 2 thng)
Trang 34
Bng bin ng gia % thay i li sut huy ng v CPI hng k

Bin ng gia thay i li sut huy ng v CPI
200.00%
150.00%
100.00%
50.00%
Jan-12
Jul-11
Jan-11
Jul-10
Jan-10
Jul-09
Jan-09
Jul-08
Jan-08
Jul-07
Jan-07
Jul-06
Jan-06
Jul-05
Jan-05
Jul-04
Jan-04
Jul-03
Jan-03
Jul-02
Jan-02
Jul-01
Jan-01
0.00%
-50.00%
-100.00%
CPI YoY
% Deposit YoY
S bin ng gia CPI v % thay i li sut huy ng c mi tng quan cng chiu v bin ng li sut
huy ng cao hn bin ng CPI
Mi tng quan cng chiu gia bin ng li sut tin gi v CPI l dng, th hin qua phn tch eviews.
Hm s li sut tin gi c dng: IR = f (CPI) (cc d liu c tnh theo nm)

Dng eview chay gia IR v CPI vi tr ca CPI l 02 thng ta c kt qu m hnh hi quy sau:
M hnh hi quy l: IR = -46.12831858 + 5.086517902*CPI(2), c th:
Trang 35
Mc gii thch ca m hnh R-squared l 64,19%, ngha l bin CPI (lm pht) vi tr 02 thng gii
thch c 64,19% bin i ca IR (li sut gi tit kim), gi tr Prob(F-statistic) sp x 0, cho thy ph
hp ca m hnh
2.2 Tc ng ca li sut ln hot ng kinh doanh ca doanh nghip
Vi nghin cu thc nghim 40 cng ty nim yt trn c 02 sn HOSE v HNX thuc nhiu lnh vc khc
nhau, mc li vay15 m mt doanh nghip phi tr trong Doanh thu thun16 (= doanh thu t bn hng v
cung cp dch v gi vn) vo khon 21,48% , trong khi mc li nhun dng trn doanh thu t bn
hng v cung cp dch v vo khong 22.59%. Chnh lch 1,1%. Cho thy hu nh nhiu cng ty lm n
ch tr li vay, trong khi li vay l mt chi ph khng hon li c hay tr chm c lu, khin
cho dng tin doanh nghip u t gim ng k. Kt qu doanh nghip hot ng cm chng, khng th
sn xut tng ln, m rng quy m v nguy c ph sn l rt cao. Chnh v th nhm xin xut hng
nghin cu tip theo v mi lin h gia li sut vay v kh nng kit qu ti chnh
Di y l bng m t 02 t trng li vay trong doanh thu thun v li nhun rng sau thu trn doanh thu
bn hng v cung cp dch v
Bng so snh t trng chi ph li vay trn doanh thu thun

IR/GOS
140.00%
127.85%
120.00%
100.00%
80.00%
IR/GOS
60.00%
49.24%
26.49%
PM
D
TC
9.19%
8.82%
5.05%
3.46%
0.09%
KS
H
2.77%
PL
C
1.47%
C
SJ
1
M
C
VR
IT
C
DG
H
C
II
BT
6
14.46%
7.10%
6.55%4.85%
3.66% 3.80%1.03%
1.01%
AC
PV
S
SN
M
26.66% 24.87%
19.92%
20.01%
18.01%
14.08%
PI
T
24.53%
19.43%
19.37%
14.05%
9.39%
4.60%
0.00%
36.02%
31.26%
29.02%
SG
T
24.59%
20.00%
VI
C
40.60%
36.86%
32.99%
Q
C
36.86%
VP
L
40.00%
50.55%
48.74%
15
Li vay c ly t bng cn i k ton

Nhm dng Doanh thu thun v c nhiu chi ph li vay c hch ton vo gi vn nn nh gi tng i khch quan
hn, nhm nh gi li vay trn doanh thu thun v li nhun sau thu trn tng doanh thu
16
Trang 36
Bng so snh t trng li nhun rng sau thu trn doanh thu bn hng v cung cp dch v
NET PROFIT/DTT
140.00%
131.24%
120.00%
100.00%
80.00%
75.69%
NET PROFIT/DTT
60.00%
60.13%
60.13%
46.35%
40.00%
38.46%
35.77%
30.51%
29.59%
29.68%
29.39%
26.57% 27.22% 26.41%
22.53%
20.94%
19.88%
18.34%
17.14%
12.18% 9.97%
10.84%
11.32%
8.54% 7.80%
7.76%
6.60% 7.57%
6.24%
6.21%
5.58% 2.35%
5.59%
3.25%
2.34%
1.45%
1.26%
0.90%4.19%
M
PM
D
TC
KS
PL
C
PI
T
T
SG
M
T
C
SJ
1
M
X
C
G
C
VR
C
Q
IT
II
G
HD
BT
6
AC
L
VP
M
S
VI
C
0.00%
PV
20.00%
35.55%
2.3 Vn cn nghin cu tip: Tc ng ca li sut n kh nng kit qu ti chnh hay ph sn ca

doanh nghip
Trong qu trnh tm hiu li sut, c ch iu hnh v tc ng ca li sut n hot ng kinh doanh ca
doanh nghip. Do thi lng nghin cu khng nhiu v ch tp trung nhiu vo c ch iu hnh li sut
ca NHNN Vit Nam (SBV), nn nhm xin dnh phn ny tip tc nghin cu sau nu c iu kin.
Trong phn ny, nhm mun nghin cu liu chng c mi lin h gia li sut cho vay, li sut tin gi
hay nu 1% thay i li sut th kh nng ph sn ca doanh nghip thay i nh th no?. C mi lin h
hay tng quan tuyn tnh gia cc bin trn hay khng. Ch s c a ra nghin cu y l ch s z.
M hnh kim nh xut l
IR = f (z) trong IR (interest rate) l li sut cho vay ca NHTM
Ch s Z l g?
Ch s Z l mt cng c o lng Pht Hin Nguy C Ph Sn v Xp Hng nh Mc Tn Dng.
Vic tm ra mt cng c pht hin du hiu bo trc s ph sn lun l mt trong nhng mi quan tm
hang u ca cc nh nghin cu v ti chnh doanh nghip. Ch s ny c pht minh bi Gio S
Edward I. Altman, trng kinh doanh Leonard N. Stern, thuc trng i Hc New York, da vo vic
nghin cu kh cng phu trn s lng nhiu cng ty khc nhau ti M. Mc d ch s Z ny c pht
minh ti M, nhng hu ht cc nuc, vn c th s dng vi tin cy kh cao.
Trang 37
Ch s Z bao gm 5 ch s X1, X2, X3, X4, X5:

X1 =
T s Vn Lu ng trn Tng Ti Sn (Working Capitals/Total Assets).
X2 =
T s Li Nhun Gi Li trn Tng Ti Sn (Retain Earnings/Total Assets)
X3 =
T S Li Nhun Trc Li Vay v Thu trn Tng Ti sn (EBIT/Total Assets)
X4 =
Gi Tr Th Trng ca Vn Ch S Hu trn Gi tr s sch ca Tng N (Market Value of
Total Equity / Book values of total Liabilities)
X5=
T s Doanh S trn Tng Ti Sn (Sales/Total Assets)
i vi doanh nghip c phn ho, ngnh sn sut:
Nu Z > 2.99
Doanh nghip nm trong vng an ton, cha c nguy c ph sn
Nu 1.8 < Z < 2.99 Doanh nghip nm trong vng cnh bo, c th c nguy c ph sn
Nu Z <1.8:
Doanh nghip nm trong vng nguy him, nguy c ph sn cao.
i vi doanh nghip cha c phn ho, ngnh sn sut:
Nu Z > 2.9:
Nu 1.23 < Z < 2.9: Doanh nghip nm trong vng cnh bo, c th c nguy c ph sn
Nu Z <1.23:
i vi cc doanh nghip khc:
Nu Z > 2.6
Nu 1.2 < Z < 2.6
Nu Z <1.1

Doanh nghip nm trong vng cnh bo, c th c nguy c ph sn
Trang 38
CHNG III
KINH NGHIM IU HNH LI SUT CA MT S NC TRN TH GII
c trng c ch iu hnh li sut ca NHTW cc nc pht trin v cc nc ang pht trin:
cc nc pht trin
NHTW dng li sut chit khu tc ng gin tip ti li sut tin gi, li sut tin vay ca cc ngn
hng trung gian.Trn c s cc NHTG ty tnh hnh th trng m p dng li sut tin gi, tin vay i
vi cc doanh nghip nhng thng l cao hn li sut chit khu. Khi NHTW tng li sut chit khu, iu
c ngha l NHTW mun hn ch s tng thm tin ra lu thng. i vi li sut c bn th ch c tc
dng trong iu kin nn kinh t c bin ng va phi v coi nh kh n.
cc nc ang pht trin:
Qua nghin cu thc t ca ngn hng th gii cho thy rng vic s dng li sut trn lm cn tr s
tng trng v tit kim ti chnh v gim thiu hiu nng ca u t. Nhiu nc ang pht trin thy
rng li sut chu s qun l ca Nh nc s khng c tc ng tch cc i vi nn kinh t ni chung v
hot ng ca cc doanh nghip ni ring. Do , dn dn cc nc ny c khuynh hng li sut bin
ng ph hp vi khuynh hng li sut ca th trng.
C ch iu hnh li sut ca mt s nc pht trin:
Cc D Tr Lin Bang M (FED)
Hin nay FED iu hnh li sut thng qua hai cng c quan trng l li sut chit khu (Discount rate)
v li sut qu d tr lin bang (Federal funds rate-FFR).FFR c y ban th trng m (FOMC) cng b
sau cc phin hp nh k (6 tun) v n khng mang bn cht n nh c th m thc cht ch l li sut
mc tiu FED giao dch trn th trng m nhm t c mc tiu cng b.
*Li sut chit khu : y l li sut FED p dng khi cho cc NH TM vay vi t cch l ngi cho
vay cui cng trn c s cm c cc giy t c gi .Cc NHTM vay chit khu b sung hoc ti to kh
nng thanh ton cho hot ng ca mnh .Li sut chit khu c xy dng theo iu hnh chnh sch
tin t ca FED : FED tng li sut chit khu khi mun hn ch tn dng v ngc li h li sut chit khu
khi mun m rng th trng tn dng .Ngoi ra hnh thc cho vay chit khu ca FED cn ging nh mt
s m bo i vi th trng v s an ton ca h thng ti chnh bi v FED l ngi cho vay cui cng
v sn sang cho vay trng hp ngn hng gp kh khn v kh nng thanh ton .Tuy nhin li sut chit
khu t c nh hng n cung cu trn th trng vn v 2 l do
-Ch c cc Ngn hng qu yu km khng c cc ngun vay khc mi vay FED qua chit khu ..V
vy , bo m danh ting ca mnh , cc NHTM M ch vay chit khu trong trng hp qu kh khn.
-Lng vn m cc NHTM vay qua hnh thc chit khu rt hn ch do chng t c gi do cc NH
nm gi khng nhiu .
Trang 39
*Li sut lin ngn hng nh hng : Thng thng khi mt ngn hng thiu kh nng thanh ton
hoc khng mc d tr quy nh trn ti khon m ti FED th c th vay nng theo hnh thc tn dng
qua m t ngun tin gi ca cc NH khc m ti FED c s d vt mc quy dnh .Trn thc t , quan h
tn dng ny din ra thng xuyn v c khi lng tng i ln .V vy li sut tn dng trn th trng
ny c nh hng ln ti chi ph vn ca cc NHTM .Bng cc quy nh mc li sut chun trn th trng
ny , FED c th tc ng n chi ph vn ca cc NHTM , t c th p dng n li sut cho vay v
huy ng vn ca NHTM p dng cho khch hng .Cng nh li sut chit khu , li sut lin ngn hng
nh c trn c s mc tiu iu hnh chnh sch tin t ca FED nhng n phn nh quan h cung cu
trn th trng vn st hn v c cc nh u t quan tm hn .
Cn c vo 2 loi li sut do FED cng b trn y , cc NHTM s xc nh li sut cho vay ca
mnh i vi khch hng trn c s tnh ton cc chi ph qun l v ri ro .Mc li sut cho vay ti thiu c
th b p chi ph v vn v qun l ca cc NHTM ln gi l li sut ch cht ( Prima rate).Trn th
trng lin ngn hng M c nim yt li sut cho vay bnh quan ca hn 30 Ngn hng ln nht ca M
p dng cho khch hng l cng ty.Do tnh c chi ph v ri ro nn cc mc li sut ch cht c s chnh
lch ln so vi li sut chit khu v li sut lin ngn hng nh hng , mc chnh lch ny c th t 23%
Cc trung gian ti chnh nhn tin gi c th vay ln nhau b p cc khon thiu ht, tuy nhin cc
khon vay ln nhau gia cc trung gian ti chnh (li sut lin ngn hng) thng cao hn FFR v vn ri
ro. Khi FED cho cc trung gian ti chnh vay tin b p thiu ht d tr bt buc, s tin tuy c
hch ton bo c vo ti khon ca cc trung gian ti chnh ti FED nhng cc trung gian ti chnh
khng c php rt ngay c khi ph sn, do FED ko c nguy c b mt s tin cho vay di dng ny.
Khc vi FED, khi mt trung gian ti chnh cho mt i tc vay lin ngn hng, h phi ct tin t ti
khon tin gi ca mnh, chuyn vo ti khon tin gi ca i tc ti FED, t lc bn cho vay khng
cn quyn s dng vi s tin cho vay na; nguy c khng thu hi c s tin cho vay xut hin, do li
sut phi cao hn. C th thy c li sut FFR l li sut thp nht m cc trung gian ti chnh nhn tin
gi c th vay c, v vy c th xem y l li sut c bn, li sut chun.
Bn cnh nhu cu m bo d tr bt buc, li sut chit khu ca FED chnh l li sut cho cc trung
gian ti chnh vay p ng nhu cu m bo thanh khon, an ton chi tr ca cc trung gian ti chnh. V
nguyn tc, thng thng li sut lin ngn hng phi thp hn li sut chit khu, v nu khng cc trung
gian ti chnh s khng vay trn th trng lin ngn hng m s vay ca FED c li sut chit khu
thp hn. Li sut chit khu thng cao hn li sut FFR v c ba mc li sut p dng cho ba loi cho vay
khc nhau l: tn dng chnh (Primary credit), tn dng m rng (Secondary credit) v tn dng thi v
(Seasonal credit).
Nh vy FED bo v li sut chit khu n nh thng qua chng trnh cho vay chit khu v bo
v FFR cng b thng qua nghip v th trng m. cch iu hnh ny cua FED khin cho li sut lin
ngn hng lun c xu hng bin ng gia FFR (c vai tr nh li sut sn tr gian on khng hong va
Trang 40
qua) v li sut chit khu (c vai tr nh li sut trn) m khng cn t ra cc gii hn nh s dng cc
bin php hnh chnh.
Ngn hng Trung ng Anh (BOE)
Li sut chnh thc l mc li sut m BOE tr cho cc khon tin d tr m cc NHTM gi ti BOE.
Mc d tr l t nguyn v cc thnh vin xc nh mc cn bng theo mc tiu ring ca mnh nhng
khng c thp hn mc trung bnh bt buc (tnh theo thng) trong k duy tr. Cc NHTM c php vay
c bo m hoc gi tin BOE vi mc li sut nm trong bin +-1% so vi mc li sut chnh thc
cho tt c cc ngy trong thng (tr ngy cui cng trong k duy tr th bin thu hp cn +-0,25%).
BOE s dng nghip v th trng m duy tr li sut qua m, li sut cc k hn khc di 3
thng lun nm trong bin . Li sut cc khon vay c k hn 3-12 thng c xc nh bi cc thnh vin
v khng ph thuc vo bin so vi li sut chnh thc.
Nh vy, v bn cht li sut chnh thc m BOE cng b l li sut mc tiu ch khng phi l li
sut mang tnh n nh c th v BOE s bo v li sut chnh thc cng b thng qua nghip v th trng
m.
Ngn hng Trung ng Chu u (ECB)
Hi ng thng c ca ECB n nh ba mc li sut ch cht ca ng tin chung Euro bao gm:
-
Li sut cho hot ng ti cp vn (Main Refinancing Operations-MRO): l mc li sut p dng

cho cc khon vay gip m bo thanh khon cho cc ngn hng.c cng b hng tun v c hiu
lc trong vng 2 tun
Li sut ti cp vn di hn ( Long term refinancing rate ) c cng b hng thng v c hiu lc

trong vng 3 thng .
Li sut cho cc phng tin tin gi thng xuyn ( deposit rate ), p dng cho cc khon tin gi
qua m ca cc ngn hng vi Eurosystem (c quan qun l ngoi t khu vc ng tin chung
Euro). Li sut ny c coi l li sut sn trn th trng lin ngn hng
Li sut cho cc phng tin vay gii hn ( Margina lending rate )p dng cho cc khon vay qua
m t Eurosystem. Li sut ny c coi l li sut trn trn th trng LNH
ECB s bo v MRO bng nghip v th trng m thng qua u thu khi lng hoc u thu li sut.
Song song NHTW ca cc quc gia thnh vin c nhim v bo v hai li sut ch cht cn li thng
qua hot ng cho vay v nhn tin gi cho li sut cc phng tin tin gi thng xuyn ng vai tr
li sut sn, cn li sut cho vay gii hn ng vai tr li sut trn, li sut cho vay qua m s dao ng
quanh bin ny. R rng cng nh li sut chnh thc ca BOE hay FFR ca FED, cc li sut ch cht
m ECB cng b u mang tnh cht li sut mc tiu, v ECB s bo v li sut mc tiu thng qua cc
cng c chnh sch tin t ca mnh li sut th trng hng v mc li sut mc tiu.
Trang 41
ECB can thip trn th trng m nhm mc ch nh hng li sut th trng , iu tit khi lng tin
trong lu thng , cung cp tn hiu ca ECB v nh hng chnh sch tin t .Cc mc li sut do ECB
cng b trn th trng m c vai tr quan trong trong vic nh hng mt bng li sut ti cc nc
thnh vin v c ECB t mc tiu v iu hnh hng ngy .
Ngn hng Trung ng c (RBA)
Do iu kin k thut v ti chnh pht trin , Ngn hng d tr ( NH TW ) khng cn s dng cng
c l d tr bt buc v ti chit khu m ch s dng mt cng c duy nht thc hin chnh sch tin
t l nghip v th trng m .Ngn hng D tr t chc mt h thng thanh ton b tr , trong cc ngn
hng TM khc phi m ti khon ti Ngn hng d tr .Nu trong qu trnh thanh ton , ngn hng no
thiu tin trn ti khon ny buc phi vay t cc Ngn hng khc duy tr kh ngng thanh ton .Trn c
s vay mn ny hnh thnh mt th trng vn ngn hn v li sut p dng y dao ng xung quanh
mc li sut m hay cn gi l cash rate do ngn hng d tr quy nh .
Hi ng RBA s n nh li sut tin mt (cash rate) l mc li sut mang tnh mc tiu nhm tc ng
n li sut cho vay qua m ca cc trung gian ti chnh. Thng qua nghip v th trng m, RBA tc
ng n li sut cho vay qua m cng tim cn vi li sut mc tiu cng tt. Thc t cho thy, RBA
kh thnh cng thng qua nghip v th trng m kim sot li sut qua m lun c iu chnh gn
st vi mc li sut mc tiu m RBA mong mun.
Ngn hng Trung ng Nht Bn (BOJ)
Khng khc nhiu so vi cch thc iu hnh li sut ca Ngn hng Trung ng cc nc pht trin,
trc y BOJ s dng cng c li sut c tn gi li sut chit khu chnh thc (Official Discount Rate)
bao gm li sut chit khu thng phiu v li sut cho vay c m bo bng tri phiu chnh ph (thng
thp hn 0.25% li sut cho vay c m bo bng ti sn khc).
K t ngy 11/8/2006 cc li sut cho vay khc nhau c gp li bng nhau, c gi l li sut cho vay
c bn v li sut chit khu c bn (Basic discount rate and basic loan rate). Vic thay i tn khng h
lm thay i bn cht ca loi li sut ny bi v n vn l li sut m BOJ chit khu cc giy t c gi cho
cc NHTM, cc NHTM s vay chit khu ca BOJ khi khng tm c ngun vay no trn th trng lin
ngn hng c chi ph thp hn chi ph vay t BOJ. Do li sut m BOJ cng b tr thnh gii hn trn
ca li sut cho vay qua m cho d BOJ khng a ra ro cn hnh chnh no cho hot ng cho vay qua
m.
Tm li , mi nc u c tn ring cho cc li sut m mnh cng b, nhng v bn cht iu hnh th
khng c nhiu khc bit ln gia cc nc v hu ht c nhng c trng sau:
-
Li sut cng b l li sut mc tiu, thng ip mang tnh nh hng th trng tham
kho ng thi th hin ch ca NHTW.
Sau khi cng b NHTW thng s dng cc cng c ca chnh sch tin t, thng l cng
c th trng m iu chnh li sut ngn hng v mc li sut mc tiu, m khng phi
can thit mt bin php hnh chnh no. (Nghip v th trng m l nghip v mua bn giy
Trang 42
t c gi gia mt bn l Ngn hng nh nc vi bn kia l cc t chc tn dng trong

NHNN ng vai tr l ngi iu hnh th trng).
-
Vic iu hnh li sut ca NHTW c th ni ch tc ng trc tip n NHTM, khng tc

ng trc tip n khu vc dn chng v doanh nghip.
nh k cng b li sut mt cch r rng v cng khai.
Hu ht li sut ca cc nc k trn u c n nh bi hi ng/y ban theo nguyn tc bnh ng, v

kin ca thnh vin hi ng c cng b cng khai ngay sau , iu ny khin cho cc thnh vin c
trch nhim hn khi quyt nh l phiu ca mnh.
Trang 43
CHNG IV
CC VN T RA
4.1. nh gi c ch iu hnh li sut Vit Nam trong thi gian qua
Li sut c bn l cng c iu hnh v m gip cho Nh nc qun l, can thip kp thi nhm hn ch
mt tiu cc ca t do ha li sut l thng to ra cuc chy ua gia cc NHTM y li sut ln cao, tc
ng xu n mt bng gi c trn th trng trong thi k lm pht cao. Tuy nhin, vic tn ti song hnh
c ch cho vay li sut c bn v li sut tha thun hnh thnh c ch hai gi trn th trng tn dng.
Vic ny ng cht li sut cho vay sn xut kinh doanh, nhng li th ni theo iu tit th trng i
vi cho vay tiu dng v pht hnh th. T , dng chy vn tn dng dch chuyn sang cho vay tiu dng,
li sut trn th trng b bin dng do s co ko gia cc phn khc th trng v gp phn lm cho din
bin li sut th trng tr nn phc tp, kh kim sot.
Trong khi , NHNN Vit Nam li thiu cng c iu tit, gy tr ngi cho vic iu hnh kinh t v m
v hot ng ngn hng. Bn cnh , mc tiu tng trng v kim sot lm pht trong iu hnh CSTT
trong v hu suy thoi kinh t lun c s co ko, li sut c bn c duy tr mc thp v lng cung tin
c kim sot mt cch thn trng tc ng mnh n vic huy ng tin gi, cung ng tn dng cho
nn kinh t v kh nng thanh khon ca cc TCTD.
4.2 Mt s vn t ra:
Hin nay, v ang xut hin mt s vn lin quan n c ch iu hnh li sut ca NHNN Vit
Nam nh sau:
-
NHNN nn xa b c ch hai gi: b trn li sut v tip tc s dng li sut c bn lm cng c

ch o iu tit th trng tin t?
C nn gim li sut trong khi p lc lm pht vn cn dai dng?
C ch hai gi trong li sut khin cc t chc tn dng v khch hng mt mi, th trng tin t
khng minh bch. Cc ngn hng thng mi u mong mun a li sut v mt gi trong thi gian sm
nht c th. Bn cnh , c cn d b trn li sut cho vay m cho cc NHTM c t n nh li sut
kinh doanh? kin ny cn c xem xt mt s kha cnh sau:
i) Theo kinh nghim ca qu trnh t do ho li sut cc nc cho thy iu kin t do ho li sut
l kinh t v m n nh, th trng ti chnh tin t minh bch v c chiu su, mc tiu ch yu ca
chnh sch tin t l kim sot lm pht; pht trin h thng thanh ton c kh nng kim sot c
hu ht cc lung vn kh dng ca khu vc ngn hng, chng khon v cc nh ch ti chnh khc;
h thng NHTM c nng lc cnh tranh v kh nng m bo an ton hot ng kinh doanh; ngn
Trang 44
sch nh nc thm ht mc thp. Vi cc iu kin ny, c l nn kinh t v th trng ti chnh

tin t ca nc ta hin nay cha p ng c.
ii) Khng hong ti chnh th gii tri qua tnh trng ti t nht, nhng suy thoi v phc hi kinh t
th gii cn din bin phc tp, nh hng tiu cc i vi kinh t v th trng tin t trong nc,
trc mt cn thc thi cc gii php tin t theo hng m bo an ton h thng.
iii) Kinh t trong nc, nguy c lm pht cao cha c ngn nga mt cch vng chc, kinh t v m
cn tim n nguy c ri ro, h thng cc NHTM cn chnh lch ln v quy m, c cu v cht lng
ti sn n v ti sn c; nng lc ti chnh, kh nng cnh tranh v qun tr kinh doanh ca cc NHTM
cn nhiu mt hn ch.
iv) Th trng hng ho, ti chnh, tin t, vng, ngoi hi, bt ng sn, chng khon cn cha ng
nhng nguy c bt n do hin tng u c cn din ra kh ph bin v cc bin php iu tit kinh t
v m ca nh nc cha mnh c th ngn nga hoc hn ch cc hin tng ny, s ko theo
cc ri ro cho h thng ngn hng.
T nhng phn tch v nhn nh nu trn, trong thi gian ti giai on hu suy gim kinh t, vic tip
tc p dng c ch iu hnh li sut c bn l mt gii php thch hp, ph hp vi cc mc tiu kinh t
v m, cung cu vn th trng. Vic iu tit li sut th trng theo hng n nh c thc hin kt
hp gia iu tit khi lng tin thng qua cc cng c gin tip, iu hnh linh hot cc mc li sut ch
o v lm tt cng tc truyn thng. S thay i c ch iu hnh li sut theo hng t do ho phi trn
c s nh gi mt cch khoa hc v thc tin cc iu kin kinh t, th trng ti chnh tin t trong v
ngoi nc, cng nh cc ri c th xy ra v cc bin php x l m bo n nh kinh t v m, s an
ton v pht trin ca h thng ti chnh.
C nn gim li sut ngay trong khi p lc lm pht vn cn dai dng?
Nm 2012, hai ni dung iu hnh chnh sch tin t quan trng l tip tc bnh n kinh t v m i i vi
trin khai ti c cu nn kinh t, kt hp vi i mi m hnh tng trng v kim sot lm pht. Chnh v
vy, li sut vn l cng c iu hnh quan trng nht hng n phc v nhng mc tiu ny.
V gn y Thng c NHNN Nguyn Vn Bnh yu cu cc NHTM gim li sut huy ng k hn t
1 thng n 12 thng cn 13%/nm v khuyn khch cc ngn hng ny gim mc li sut cho vay xung
cn 14,5 - 16,5%/nm. Vic yu cu ngn hng thng mi gim li sut huy ng khng phi l mt bin
php hnh chnh n thun, n c h tr bi vic ct gim li sut t pha NHNN.
Ngn hng Nh nc ang trin khai vic ct gim ng lot li sut ti cp vn t 15%/nm xung
14%/nm, li sut cho vay qua m trong thanh ton in t lin ngn hng t 16%/nm xung 15%/nm,
Trang 45
li sut ti chit khu t 13%/nm xung 12%/nm. Bng vic h gim cc mc li sut ni trn, NHNN
pht i mt thng ip kh r rng l k t nay NHNN sn sng to iu kin cc t chc tn dng c
th nhn c t pha NHNN nhng dng tin r hn hoc ngang bng vi li sut huy ng nhm gii
quyt trc mt kh khn thanh khon ca mnh m khng ty thuc sng cht vo ngun tin gi ang
mng dn t khu vc h gia nh. Khi thanh khon ca h thng ngn hng c m bo, cc ngn hng
thng mi c k vng l s c th gim phn no li sut cho vay.
Quyt nh gim li sut ca NHNN tuy cn d dt (ch mi gim 1%/nm) nhng cng cho thy mt vi
tia nng sng trong bu tri cn nhiu my m. Trc ht, chng ta c th tin rng tnh hnh thanh khon
kh khn ko di ca h thng ngn hng c v ang c khc phc dn v nay ang nm trong vng
kim sot.
4.3 Mt s gii php hon thin c ch iu hnh li sut ca NHNN Vit Nam hin nay:
Nguyn tc chung :
-
Cn tng cng cng tc d bo cho nn kinh t, m bo vic iu hnh kinh t v m v li sut khng
b sc i vi nn kinh t. Vic iu chnh tng gim li sut nn c l trnh v nn c thng bo trc
hoc c tn hiu bo trc cho doanh nghip h c k hoch iu chnh sn xut, hn ch tht nghip
Chnh sch tin t cng phi m bo hiu qu hn, linh hot hn v kp thi hn. S lnh mnh v
nng lc qun l ri ro, thm nh d n ca cc NHTM cng cn c bo m chnh sch tin t
c truyn ti nhanh n cc doanh nghip. Cc NHTM cn nng cao nng lc v qun tr ri ro ni
chung v qun tr ri ro li sut, trong c bit l h thng qun l ti sn N -C .
Xy ng cc bin php h tr hn ch tnh bin ng ca li sut trn th trng, n nh th trng

tin t v to s yn tm trong cng chng. l iu hnh linh hot cng c li sut ti chit khu, ti
cp vn nghip v th trng m nhm t c li sut nh hng. Kim sot tng trng tn dng
hp l v mang tnh h thng trn c s yu cu tng trng kinh t v n nh kinh t v m, hng
u t vn vo sn xut, trnh tnh trng tng trng tn dng qu mnh, c bit trong lnh vc u t
chng khon, bt ng sn, vng, gy p lc cho ngn hng kch hot chy ua li sut .
V trc mt
Trc mt l phi thit lp mt mc li sut c bn nh hng c li sut th trng.
Theo kinh nghim ca mt s nc trn th gii, c th pht huy c tt vai tr nh hng ca li sut
c bn th bn thn NHTW ca quc gia phi xc nh c nhng mc tiu iu hnh c th trn c s
nh lng c th v lm pht, tng trng, hoc li sut ngn hn m ti nn kinh t t trng thi cn
Trang 46
bng. V vy, vic hon thin c ch hnh thnh li sut c bn - lm c s nh hng chun mc cho li
sut th trng lin ngn hng, th trng tin t l mt vic cn thit phi thc hin trong thi gian ny.
NHNN xc nh li sut ti cp vn l li sut ch o iu hnh nn kinh t.
li sut ti cp vn thc s l li sut ch o, iu hnh nn kinh t, cn phi lm ng b cc vic sau:
Xy dng h thng ch tiu kim sot c th trng lin ngn hng, theo di kp thi din bin li
sut trn th trng lin ngn hng, lm c s nghin cu ban hnh li sut ti cp vn.
Lm ng b cc cng c iu hnh chnh sch tin t nh t gi, d tr bt buc, nghip v th
trng m, nghip v chit khu, ti chit khu, hn mc tn dng v kim sot khi lng tin cung
ng.
D bo s bin ng li sut theo tnh hnh kinh t trong v ngoi nc, qua p dng cc bin php
nh hng li sut ph hp vi thc t nn kinh t.

NHNN nghin cu sa i, b sung cc quy ch ti cp vn, quy ch chit khu-ti chit khu ca
NHNN i vi cc NHTM theo hng thng thong hn v iu kin vay, hn mc vay...

S cn thit duy tr mc li sut trn
i vi li sut huy ng, do nhng bt cp v cu trc th trng hin nay lm ny sinh tnh trng cnh
tranh li sut thiu lnh mnh, cng nh l din bin ca li sut thc huy ng c th lm k vng lm pht
gia tng nn vic thc hin duy tr mc li sut trn trong giai on ny l cn thit bnh n mt bng li
sut.
ng thi trong thi gian ny, NHNN cn tch cc h tr thanh khon i vi NHTM vi k hn di
hn, khi lng ln hn so vi trc y, h tr thng qua ti cp vn v hon i ngoi t v ch o cc
NHTM nh nc gi vai tr ch o trong cung ng vn v iu chnh li sut gim dn ph hp din bin
nn kinh t. Tuy nhin, v lu di, khi cc xu hng u t r nt, nn kinh t dn n nh th vic tho
d trn li sut huy ng cng s c thc hin nhm tun th cc nguyn tc trn con ng t do ha li
sut la chn.
Tip tc hon thin c ch ch iu hnh li sut, n nh mt bng li sut kim sot lm pht
hng ti n nh kinh t v m
y l nhim v trc mt v trng tm ca ngnh Ngn hng trong thi gian ti. thc hin nhim v
, ngnh Ngn hng ang trin khai nhng gii php ng ph kp thi. Tuy nhin, h tr cho cc gii
php ngn hn ny c hiu qu, c c s y cho vic xy dng cc gii php iu hnh trong di hn,
bn cnh s n lc ca ton ngnh Ngn hng, cng rt cn thit phi c s ch o st sao ca Chnh ph
v s phi hp cht ch ca cc b, ngnh hu quan trong vic c cu li th trng ti chnh, gim dn cho
Trang 47
vay vi li sut u i, pht trin cc th trng n mt cch c hiu qu, t s gim bt gnh nng cho
khu vc ngn hng trong vic cung cp vn phc v cho cc mc tiu pht trin kinh t ca c nc.
V lu di :
-
Th nht: Cn i mi c ch iu hnh li sut theo tn hiu ca th trng, v lu di nghin cu xem

xt xa b trn li sut vo thi im thch hp gim bt kh khn trong hot ng kinh doanh ca
NHTM v gim tc ng tiu cc cho nn kinh t.
Th hai: S dng linh hot cc cng c, chnh sch iu hnh tin t nh chnh sch chit khu, chnh
sch DTBB v c bit l chnh sch t gi v li sut.
Th ba: Cn tng cng bin php hnh chnh n nh th trng, xy dng cc ch ti x pht
nghim minh i vi trng hp vi phm kinh doanh tin t .
Th t: Cn nghin cu xy dng c ch phn chia li ch hp l gia ngn hng, doanh nghip v

ngi gi tin. Lm c iu ny s t c rt nhiu mc tiu: trnh ng tin chy vng vo trong
nn kinh t, ngn chn nhng chi ph v ch, hn ch tng trng ng vn o v quan trng nht l to
ra mi trng cnh tranh lnh mnh cho ngn hng.
Trang 48
TI LIU THAM KHO

1. Tin v hot ng ngn hng TS.L Vinh Danh Nm 2009
2. Wesbsite Ngn hng Nh nc Vit Nam
3. Ngh nh 53/HBT ca Hi ng B trng v t chc, b my Ngn hng Nh
nc Vit Nam ngy 26/03/1988
4. Bi vit Ngn hng Vit Nam giai on 1986 - 1990: Trang s khc nghit ca TS.
Nguyn i Lai - Tp ch kinh t v d bo (2009)
5. Quyt nh s 1627/2001/Q-NHNN ngy 31/12/2001
6. Quyt nh 546 ca NHNN ngy 30/5/2002 (hiu lc 01/06/2002)
7. Quyt nh s 187/2008/Q-NHNN v vic tng t l d tr bt buc
8. Cng in s 02/C-NHNN ngy 26/02/2008
9. Quyt nh s 16/2008/Q-NHNN
10. Thng t 19/2010/TT-NHNN ngy 27/09/2010
11. Thng t s 13/2010/TT-NHNN ngy 20/5/2010 v quy nh v t l bo m an
ton ca TCTD
12. Thng t 02/2011/TT-NHNN ngy 3/3/2011
13. Thng t s 30/2011/TT-NHNN ngy 28/9/2011
14. Ngh quyt s 01/NQ-CP ngy 03/01/2012 ca Chnh ph
15. Ngh quyt s 11/NQ-CP ngy 24 thng 2 nm 2011
16. Ch th 01/CT-NHNN ngy 01 thng 03 nm 2011 ca Thng c NHNN.
17. Ch th s 01/CT-NHNN ngy 13/02/2012 v t chc thc hin chnh sch tin t v
m bo hot ng ngn hng an ton, hiu qu nm 2012
18. Cng vn s 2956/NHNN-CSTT ngy 14 thng 4 nm 2011 v kim sot hot ng
tn dng nm 2011
19. Lut ngn hng nh nc s 46/2010/QH12 ngy 16 thng 06 nm 2010
20. Bi nghin cu C ch iu hnh li sut ca NHNN Vit Nam nhm Bi Tre
K11
21. Bi vit Nhn li c ch iu chnh li sut Vit Nam Trn Tr Dng tp tr
Lut ti chnh
22. D liu tng hp t Ngn hng nh nc, ch s gi tiu dng, d liu tng hp t
cc khon vay n thc t pht sinh ti nhiu cng ty (vay ti BIDV, Vietinbank,
ACB, Techcombank, Sacombank, Eximbank, Indovinabank, Navibank, Westernbank,
Habubank,)
23. D liu tng hp t BCTC ca 40 cng ty nim yt trn sn HOSE, HNX (gm VIC,
KBC, MSN, VNM, VPL, VCG, PVS, PVI, ACC, BHC, BT6, BCI, CII, D2D, HDG,
ITA, ITC, NBB, QCG, TDH, VRC, ABT, CMX, HVG, SJ1, SSM, CMT, FPT, SGT,
COM, PIT, PVD, PLC, BMC, KSH, GMC, TCM, BHS, DPM, PNC)
24. Website
a. vi.wikipedia.org
b. Saga.vn
c. Google.com.vn
d. http://www.sbv.gov.vn
25. V rt nhiu ti liu khc

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B GIO DC V O TO

TRNG I HC KINH T TP.HCM

ti: C CH IU HNH LI SUT CA NHNN VIT

Nhn xt ca Ging vin:

DANH SCH NHM THC HIN

b/ Li sut th ni: ...........................................................................................................................16

C ch iu hnh li sut ca NHNN Vit Nam v nhng vn t ra

GVHD: PGS.TS Trng Quang Thng

Ngn hng TW c mt vi tnh cht chung sau:

L cu ni gia chnh ph vi cc hot ng ti chnh ca n vi nn kinh t

L cu ni gia th trng ti chnh tin t vi nc ngoi

Cng c chnh ca NHTW l cc cng c ca chnh sch tin t.

1.2 C cu t chc NHTW

Nhm thc hin: Nhm 4 TCDN m 1 Cao hc Kha 20

C ch iu hnh li sut ca NHNN Vit Nam v nhng vn t ra

GVHD: PGS.TS Trng Quang Thng

1.2.1 Quan h t chc gia NHTW v chnh quyn

C ch iu hnh li sut ca NHNN Vit Nam v nhng vn t ra

GVHD: PGS.TS Trng Quang Thng

Nhm thc hin: Nhm 4 TCDN m 1 Cao hc Kha 20

C ch iu hnh li sut ca NHNN Vit Nam v nhng vn t ra

GVHD: PGS.TS Trng Quang Thng

M hnh NHTW trc thuc chnh ph

Nhm thc hin: Nhm 4 TCDN m 1 Cao hc Kha 20

C ch iu hnh li sut ca NHNN Vit Nam v nhng vn t ra

GVHD: PGS.TS Trng Quang Thng

3. Hot ng ca Ngn hng Trung ng (NHTW)1

Pht hnh Tin:

P: Mc gi c bnh qun ca hng ha ti thi im ang xt trong nn kinh t,

Q (hay T): Tng s lng hng ha

V: l vn tc vng quay tin t, o lng s ln m tin t dch chuyn to ra tng gi tr hng

Vi nhng bin s ny ng a ra phng trnh trao i l:

Nhm thc hin: Nhm 4 TCDN m 1 Cao hc Kha 20

C ch iu hnh li sut ca NHNN Vit Nam v nhng vn t ra

GVHD: PGS.TS Trng Quang Thng

Ch ngn hng ca cc ngn hng Trung gian (NHTG)

Qun l hot ng d tr bt buc ca h thng NHTG: Hot ng thanh ton b tr v chuyn

o D tr bt buc (Required Reserves) vit tt l RR, l nhng khon d tr c quy nh bi

FR ln hn hoc bng 0: cc NHTG ang bnh trng ti sn c thng qua vay mn v h t l d

Nhm thc hin: Nhm 4 TCDN m 1 Cao hc Kha 20

C ch iu hnh li sut ca NHNN Vit Nam v nhng vn t ra

GVHD: PGS.TS Trng Quang Thng

Ch ngn hng ca Chnh ph: Thng qua vic

Qun l qu d tr Quc gia: bao gm cc loi ti sn chin lc m t nc no cng phi d b

Qun l h thng ti chnh Quc gia: NHTW c xc nh vai tr l th lnh ca h thng ti

iu tit kinh t v m: Mi hot ng ca NHTW u nh hng mt thit n mc cung tin

Nhm thc hin: Nhm 4 TCDN m 1 Cao hc Kha 20

C ch iu hnh li sut ca NHNN Vit Nam v nhng vn t ra

GVHD: PGS.TS Trng Quang Thng

4. Cc cng c iu tit kinh t v m:

Phi hng v vic n nh gi c: Gi c c t l lm pht thp l mc tiu ca mi nn kinh t. Khi

Phi to ra mt nn tng ti chnh n nh (stable financial background)

a/ Cng c th trng m (Open market operations):

Nhm thc hin: Nhm 4 TCDN m 1 Cao hc Kha 20

C ch iu hnh li sut ca NHNN Vit Nam v nhng vn t ra

GVHD: PGS.TS Trng Quang Thng

V loi khng c php mua hay bn li

Phng thc iu hnh nn kinh t cn th hin trong 02 trng hp

T l nghch gia cung tin vi li sut

T l thun gia cung tin vi d tr

T l nghch gia cung tin vi t gi

T l thun gia cung tin vi lm pht

Nhm thc hin: Nhm 4 TCDN m 1 Cao hc Kha 20

C ch iu hnh li sut ca NHNN Vit Nam v nhng vn t ra