H Ni, Thng 3 nm 2009

Doanh nghip Vit Nam:

Chuyn t huy ng vn c phn sang vn vay truyn thng

1. Gii thiu Bi thuyt trnh nhm: Phn tch thch thc huy ng vn c phn xut cc doanh nghip v c quan qun l

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2. p lc tng vn
Cn thit vi: Cc DNNY trn HOSE c vn iu l di 80 t 35 CTCK trc p lc tng vn ln 300 t ng Cc NHTMCP ln 3000 t ng (175 triu USD) cui 2010. Cc DN c sunk costs ln. V sao?

Yu cu php l: Ngnh Ti chnh Cc d n ln cn thit v d dang: DNNN M rng v tng trng: DNTN
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3. Huy ng vn qua TTCK

2007: mt nm vng 127 ngn t t TTCK Gn bng tng vn u t gin tip FII (8 t USD) nm 2007 Chim 25 % tng u t trong nc (521.7 ngn t) v 70% tng u t t khu vc t nhn (184.3 ngn t ng) nm 2007.

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3. Huy ng vn qua TTCK

2008: Tht vng! 14,3 ngn t ng (840 triu USD) c UBCK cp php nhng con s thc t c th l rt thp.

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4. Huy ng vn c phn ca cc DNNY T l thnh cng rt cao trong nm 2006 v 2007 (trn 95%) 79% khi lng c mua nm 2008 nhng gi tr thu c thp 2009: Rt t h s xin huy ng v thc hin

Table 1: Pht hnh C phiu ca cc DNNY

2006 Cap php Thc hin % thnh cng Pht hnh to dng tin Gi tr PH theo mnh gi Source: Stox.vn * khng bao gm c phiu phiu Triu cp Triu cp % Triu cp T ng 147.1 141.3 96.1% 84.4 844.0 2007 1,411.9 1,340.7 95.0% 907.1 9,071.2 2008 25/02/09 1,203.8 945.7 78.6% 132.2 1,321.6 36.0 5.7 15.8% 4.5 45.3

thng, c tc bng c phiu v chuyn t tri

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4. Huy ng vn c phn ca cc DNNY (tip)

10 cng ty huy ng ln nht nm 2007: thu c 1.2 t la M, chim 31.5% tng s vn huy ng ca 151 DNNY. Chy vo BS v ti chnh. H s n thp (ngoi tr Vincom 2,5 ln) ng kh nng quay tr li vn vay.

Table 2: 10 DN Huy ng vn C phn ln nht nm 2007

M Tn DN Ngnh Gi tr triu USD 2007 186.1 141.8 138.7 122.7 108.7 106.1 101.9 95.3 85.6 79.4 1,166.2 N/ Vn 31.12.08 na 0.30 0.29 0.13 0.63 na 0.29 0.02 0.46 2.52 Tin/ N NH 31.12.08 na 0.40 0.10 1.70 0.01 na 0.30 12.90 0.40 0.10

STB Sacombank HPG Hoa Phat Group ITA Tan Tao Group SSI Sai Gon Securities KBC Kinh Bac Corporation ACB Asia Commcercial Bank KDC Kinh Do Confectioneries SAM Cables and Telecom GMD Gemadept VIC Vincom Tng Source: Stox.vn

Ngn hng Cong nghip BS Chng khon BS Ngn hng Bnh ko Cng nghip Vn ti BS

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4. Huy ng vn c phn ca cc DNNY (tip)

Chuyn dch t PHCHH nm 2007 sang thng CP nm 2008. Giao dch pht hnh ring l vn cn t. Pht hnh rng ri ra cng chng gim xung 2% vo nm 2008 (2007: 6%) $20m Challenge Contest VDF Conference on Corporate Financing

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4. Huy ng vn c phn ca cc DNNY (tip)

Pht hnh cho c ng hin hu khng kh thi: Ch s nh gi qu thp: n 10/3/09 c 30% (105/355) c phiu c giao dch di mnh gi v 60% (255/355) c phiu giao dch di gi tr s sch V d: C phiu thng 2 c 1!
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5. Gii php
Cc giao dch ring l l hng i kh thi nht cho vic huy ng vn c phn NTNN rt quan tm ti giao dch ring l. Giao dch vn c thc hin. Ti chnh trung gian ph hp vi cc doang nghip khng c ti sn th chp. M hnh ngn hng u t: Liu lnh o doanh nghip c chp nhn tr ph retainers fee?
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5. Gii php (tip) Doanh nghip vn cn kh nng tng vn vay? Xem Bng 3
TABLE 3: TNH HNH TI CHNH CC DNNY
Ngnh CNTT Cng nghip Nng lng Dch v tiu dng Chm sc sc khe Hng tiu dng Nguyn vt liu Ti chnh & BS Tin ch Dch v Vin thng Trung bnh Sourced: Stox.vn Vn vay/Vn CSH Tin/N Ngn hn 31.12.07 31.12.08 31.12.07 31.12.08 1.30 1.38 0.30 0.26 1.80 2.40 1.10 0.30 0.80 0.90 0.80 1.00 0.50 1.09 1.18 1.68 0.67 0.42 0.68 0.90 0.87 1.06 0.83 0.97 0.13 0.10 0.10 0.04 0.30 0.10 0.10 0.20 0.10 0.14 0.18 0.20 0.45 0.14 0.18 0.37 0.06 0.07 0.21

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5. Gii php (tip)

V sao vn vay?
WACC T sut mong i ca NT

R hn do thu Chi ph vn c phn t do do gi thp Tham kho nhanh: WACC v C Cu vn Ti u Vay theo chng trnh ca Chnh ph
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5. Gii php (tip) Cn s iu tit mnh hn cho vic sp nhp

46 Cng ty vn di 80 t trn sn HOSE 35 CTCK vn di 300 t Cc ngn hng TMCP

Kinh doanh tng t v b sung nhau 4 cng ty vn ti ng bin (Safi - SFI, Vinafco VFC, Hng Hi SG-SHC, Vn ti Petrolimex-PJT) 2 cng ty kho vn v giao nhn cng ni a (Cng on X-DXP, Sai Gon Transmex-TMS)

35 h thng giao dch trc tuyn gi mi h thn trn 1 triu USD v cng giao dch trc tuyn. 70 ng truyn thu ring i vi 2 sn HaSTC v HOSE c php cung cp y dch v chng khon Chi ph/nh u t thp

Tun th quy nh. Tng kh nng thanh khon Gim thiu chi ph Tng kh nng cnh tranh Li th v quy m

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5. Gii php (tip)

C nn a cc c phiu tt ra th trng? Nn sm, tuy nhin: T l free-float thp (6,4%)
Table 4: Free-Float ca cc DNNN ln c phn ha
Vn L T VND Free-Float % Free-Float T VND

Vietcombank Vietinbank Sabeco Habeco Sourced: Stox.vn. 12/08

15,000 13,400 6,412 2,318 37,130

6.5% 4.0% 10.0% 9.8% 6.41%

975.0 536.0 642.5 227.2 2,380.6

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5. Gii php (tip)

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5. Gii php (tip)

y mnh hn na minh bch ti chnh Dn xa b s khc bit trong k ton nhm phc v tt hn NT D phng hay theo gi th trng T H thng k ton n Thng t 38: Cng b BCTC y hn

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5. Gii php (tip)

Sit cht vic tun th! C cn r sot BCTC qu? Thay i quy nh khi cn thit

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6. Kt lun
Vn vay vn l kh thi hn c v r hn. Thi im tt cho tng cng minh bch & quan h NT. H thng php l phc v c ng.
...and looking forward to equity offering Come to see banks tellers now...

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Cm n qu v!