bài nộp kinh tế lượng full

ti tnh hnh chi
tiu ca sinh vin

hin nay
Mn : Kinh T Lng
GV: TH.S Nguyn Trung ng
Nhm Bnh Trng Trn
Nguyn Th Thy Phng
Nguyn Th M Phng
Vy Nht Quyn
Ng Th T Qunh
Trn Anh Ti
Nguyn Uyn Thao
Phan Th Thanh Tho
Phm Th Thng
Mc lc
CHNG 1 L DO CHN TI ............................................................................................ 3
1.1 Mc ch v ngha thc tin ..................................................................................................3
1.2 Phm vi v phng php kho st ...........................................................................................3
CHNG 2 C S L LUN ................................................................................................. 5

2.1 L thuyt v thc tin ..............................................................................................................5
2.1 Xy dng m hnh ...................................................................................................................5
2.2 D bo du .............................................................................................................................6
CHNG 3 THU THP S LIU .............................................................................................. 7

3.1
M hnh ...............................................................................................................................7
3.2 Bin ph thuc, bin c lp v n v tnh ..............................................................................8

3.2
Phm vi thu thp s liu .......................................................................................................8
3.4 B s liu.................................................................................................................................8
CHNG 4 C LNG V KIM NH M HNH ............................................................. 15

4.1
c lng ......................................................................................................................... 15
4.1.1 c lng m hnh hi quy tuyn tnh mu ...........................................................................................15

4.1.2 Kim nh du ..........................................................................................................................................16
4.1.3 ngha h s xc nh m hnh ...............................................................................................................16
4.2 Kim nh m hnh ................................................................................................................ 17

4.2.1 Kim nh m hnh a ra. .................................................................................................................17
4.2.2 Kim nh m hnh mi: ..........................................................................................................................19
4.2.3 La chn m hnh ph hp: ....................................................................................................................22
4.2.4
Tng thu nhp v chi tiu pht sinh c nh hng nh nhau ti tng chi tiu ca sinh vin
khng? 23
4.2.5
M hnh c hin tng a cng tuyn xy ra khng? .....................................................................26
4.2.6
M hnh trn c t tng quan khng? ..........................................................................................28
4.3 Xc nh khong tin cy ca cc h s hi quy tng th (vi tin cy 95%)............................ 29

4.3.1
4.3.2
4.3.3
4.3.4
Xc nh khong tin cy ca
Xc ng khong tin cy ca
2 .......................................................................................................29
3 ........................................................................................................29
4 .......................................................................................................29
5 .......................................................................................................29
CHNG 5 KT LUN ........................................................................................................ 30
Trang 1
5.1
nh gi m hnh ............................................................................................................... 30
5.2
ngha31
5.3
M rng m hnh ............................................................................................................... 31
Trang 2
CHNG 1
L DO CHN TI
1.1 Mc ch v ngha thc tin
Khi bc chn vo ging ng i hc th cng chnh l lc bn phi t ch v

cuc sng ca mnh. nh du s trng thnh ca bn, mi s u c gii
quyt da vo quyt nh ca bn. c bit l i vi cc bn sinh vin phi sng
xa gia nh th vic c lp trong mi hnh ng v suy ngh l iu d thy nht.
Cuc sng tht khng d dng khi mi vn t vic gii quyt nhu cu n, ung,
nh ca, in, nc cho ti nhng nhu cu c nhn, hc tp, nhu cu x hi, giao
lu, nhu cu xa x,tt c u phi gii quyt trong khi thu nhp hng thng t b
m l mt ngun thu nhp v cng khim tn nu khng ni l t i! Nm bt c
nhng nhu cu cng chnh l lc sinh vin chng ta thc hin chi tiu ca mnh.
Ty vo mi ngi m c nhng nh hng n tiu dng khc nhau, chnh v th
m mc chi tiu cng khc nhau. Vi mong mun c hiu bit nhiu hn v
nhng nhu cu thc tin v tc ng ca chng ti i sng sinh vin nh th no,
nhm la chn ti nghin cu v mc chi tiu ca cc bn sinh vin
trong mt thng ng thi qua mang li cho cc bn sinh vin mt ci nhn
tng quan v chi tiu ca mnh c c nhng k hoch chi tiu ng n v tit
kim hn.
1.2 Phm vi v phng php kho st
Phm vi: nghin cu sinh vin khoa marketing ca trng i hc ti chnh

marketing
Trang 3
Phng php: ti c thc hin thng qua phiu kho st trc tip cho
tng sinh vin do nhm thc hin.
Tng s mu kho st: 150
S mu hp l: 145
Trang 4
CHNG 2
C S L LUN
2.1 L thuyt v thc tin
Xt v mt l thuyt th c nhiu yu t nh hng n mc chi tiu ca sinh

vin nh: thu nhp mi thng t gia nh, nhu cu thit yu ca cuc sng (n
ung, tin nh, tin in), nhu cu hc tp (sch, v, qu lp, on, hi), nhu
cu x hi (tin xng, tin xe, vui chi gii tr,),hoc c nhng nhu cu pht
sinh trong thng nacn nhiu yu t khc na nhng nhm ch tp trung nghin
cu v nh hng ca mt s yu t nh: tng thu nhp, tin tit kim ca sinh
vin, s ln t tp cng bn b.
2.1 Xy dng m hnh
Da theo nhng g m nhm nhn nh, nhm a ra m hnh hi quy tng

th nh sau:
Y=
Ch thch:
X2: tng thu nhp (ngn ng/thng)
X3: tin tit kim ca sinh vin (ngn ng/thng)
X4: s ln t tp cng bn b (t nht l 1 ln, nhiu nht l 31 ln)
X5: chi tiu pht sinh ( ngn ng/thng)
Trang 5
2.2 D bo du
BIN
Tng thu nhp
TN
D BO
BIN
DU
X2
K VNG
Thu nhp cng cao sinh vin

cng chi tiu nhiu hn
Tin tit kim ca
X3
sinh vin
S ln t tp cng
gim bt tin chi tiu trong thng

X4
bn b
Chi tiu pht sinh
Tin tit kim cng nhiu th s
S ln t tp cng nhiu th mc
chi tiu cng nhiu
X5
C nhng vn khng lng

trc cn phi chi tiu. Xy ra
cng nhiu th mc chi tiu
cng ln.
Trang 6
CHNG 3
THU THP S LIU
3.1 M hnh
Vy nn nhm s thc hin kim nh vi m hnh hi quy mu:

Y= +
Ch thch:
X2: tng thu nhp (ngn ng/thng)
X3: tin tit kim ca sinh vin (ngn ng/thng)
X4: s ln t tp cng bn b (t nht l 1 ln, nhiu nht l 31 ln)
X5: chi tiu pht sinh ( ngn ng/thng)
D bo du
BIN
Tng thu nhp
TN
D BO
BIN
DU
X2
K VNG
Thu nhp cng cao sinh vin

cng chi tiu nhiu hn
Tin tit kim ca
X3
sinh vin
S ln t tp cng
gim bt tin chi tiu trong thng

X4
bn b
Chi tiu pht sinh
Tin tit kim cng nhiu th s
S ln t tp cng nhiu th mc
chi tiu cng nhiu
X5
C nhng vn khng lng

trc cn phi chi tiu. Xy ra
cng nhiu th mc chi tiu
cng ln.
Trang 7
3.2 Bin ph thuc, bin c lp v n v tnh

Bin ph thuc l tng chi tiu m sinh vin thng dng trong mt thng (Y), n v tnh
l ngn ng/thng. Bin c lp l bin bao gm: tng thu nhp, tin tit kim ca sinh vin, s
ln t tp cng bn b, chi tiu pht sinh trong thng.
3.2 Phm vi thu thp s liu

ti c thc hin thng qua vic pht phiu kho st, thc hin trn tng i tng
ca sinh vin khoa marketing, trng i hc ti chnh marketing
3.4 B s liu
BNG S LIU QUAN ST

STT
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
X2
X3
X4
X5
2500
450
20
250
2000
1000
10
200
600
3500
100
25
400
3000
2000
26
500
1500
1500
13
300
1500
2000
11
2000
2700
200
10
400
2000
2000
100
400
1500
2500
200
200
1000
1500
300
1200
2000
2000
2700
100
13
400
2000
Trang 8
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
2000
11
2000
2500
100
15
200
1500
2000
13
1000
1000
4000
500
30
500
2500
2500
200
13
300
2000
1200
50
12
200
950
2500
16
300
1800
1900
12
350
1400
2000
10
300
1700
3200
200
300
2500
3000
16
500
2000
1000
11
100
900
1700
12
400
1200
2000
13
200
1800
2800
14
300
2500
2000
18
100
1900
3000
19
200
2800
2000
26
1000
1100
500
600
200
3500
1500
1000
1000
2000
12
500
1500
2500
500
500
1500
1700
200
1500
2500
500
2000
3000
500
500
2000
2000
500
1500
Trang 9
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
3300
300
300
2700
2000
200
20
100
1700
3000
23
1000
2000
2000
16
300
1700
1200
19
200
1000
2700
400
300
2000
3000
500
12
500
2000
2500
500
13
2000
1800
2000
10
200
1800
2000
200
1800
2000
500
1500
3000
1000
2000
5000
1000
1000
3000
2000
200
200
1600
2500
13
500
2000
2500
400
15
100
200
3000
16
1000
2000
2500
10
500
2000
2500
450
21
250
2000
1500
24
900
1000
4000
26
1000
3000
2700
11
500
2500
1000
400
500
2000
1000
1000
1500
100
100
400
3300
800
500
2500
Trang
10
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
4000
200
3800
5500
400
200
2500
1300
100
700
300
100
12
3000
500
2500
2000
15
500
1500
1500
200
1300
3300
100
1000
2000
2500
15
500
2000
2500
500
2000
3000
1000
2000
5800
1000
12
1000
3000
5100
10
700
1400
2000
2000
3500
500
3000
2000
500
1500
2400
200
500
2000
200
300
1700
2000
11
500
1500
1000
15
500
3000
500
12
400
900
3000
500
16
1000
1500
2000
24
500
1500
2800
300
28
400
2500
2000
13
2000
4000
1000
500
1500
Trang
11
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
112
113
114
115
116
1500
1000
1000
2000
200
2000
4000
500
16
1000
2000
3000
26
3000
2700
27
900
1800
2500
300
25
1200
1000
3250
500
30
500
2250
2000
12
500
1500
1500
500
1000
1500
300
1200
2000
800
100
1100
2000
500
16
200
1300
2000
200
13
300
1500
4000
12
1000
3000
1900
300
100
1500
2800
300
1000
1500
2500
300
2200
4500
500
12
1000
3000
2000
300
10
200
1500
2000
13
500
1500
3000
16
500
2500
2000
100
10
200
1700
1800
11
300
1500
2800
19
300
2500
3200
700
18
500
2000
3000
13
1500
1500
Trang
12
117
118
119
120
121
122
123
124
125
126
127
128
129
130
131
132
133
134
135
136
137
138
139
140
141
142
500
500
1800
200
500
1000
1700
10
200
900
4500
500
19
2000
1500
300
300
2000
300
400
1300
2000
300
400
1300
3000
1000
20
200
1500
3700
2200
300
1200
3000
1000
2000
1500
11
500
1000
2500
10
200
2000
1500
200
500
1500
500
1200
1000
400
600
3500
1000
11
600
900
4000
2400
16
100
600
2000
500
1500
1000
300
2500
2500
2000
1000
1000
3000
21
1650
1350
1500
11
500
1000
2000
500
1500
1000
100
150
900
3500
25
300
3000
Trang
13
143
144
145
200
30
100
150
2700
200
1500
1000
1500
200
500
800
Ngun: phiu kho st ti trng i hc Ti chnh- Marketing
Trang
14
CHNG 4
C LNG V KIM NH M HNH
4.1 c lng
4.1.1 c lng m hnh hi quy tuyn tnh mu
= +
Tin hnh chy m hnh hi quy trn vi b s liu thu thp c ta c kt qu

hi quy nh sau:
Trang
15
4.1.2 Kim nh du
So snh vi gi thuyt, ta thy du ca cc h s i km vi cc bin tng

i ging vi nhng g ta k vng.
4.1.3 ngha h s xc nh m hnh
: khi cc bin cn li khng thay i, th tng thu nhp
tng (hoc gim) mt n v th tng chi tiu tng (hoc gim)

ln.
=-
: khi cc bin cn li khng thay i, th tin tit kim
ca sinh vin tng (hoc gim) mt n v th tng chi tiu gim (hoc
tng)
ln.
: khi cc bin cn li khng thay i, th s ln t tp
cng bn b tng (hoc gim) mt n v th tng chi tiu tng (hoc

gim)
ln.
TUY NHIN, ta thy theo kt qu hi quy cho thy du ca h s ca X5 l m, cha ng

lm vi nhng g nhm kz vng, nn nhm s tip tc kim nh v m hnh c nhn
nh chnh xc nht.
=-
: khi cc bin cn li khng thay i, th chi tiu pht
sinh tng (hoc gim) mt n v th tng chi tiu gim (hoc tng)
ln.
Trang
16
4.2 Kim nh m hnh

4.2.1 Kim nh m hnh a ra.
Ta c m hnh hi quy nm bin nh trnh by trn:

=
(Kim nh cc gi thuyt vi mc tin cy 95%)

Bi ton 1:
Kim nh s nh hng ca tng thu nhp vo tng chi tiu.?
Ta c bi ton kim nh:
{
Ta dng thng k T
nu H0 ng ta c :
= 16.640528
Vi tin cy l 95% , mc ngha =5% v n= 145 ta c

C
=1.96
So snh T> C nn ta bc b H0
Kt lun: tng thu nhp c nh hng ti mc chi tiu.
Bi ton 2:
Kim nh s nh hng ca tit kim i vi tng chi tiu.
Ta c bi ton kim nh: {
Ta dng thng k T
T
nu Ho ng ta c
= -7.77544852
Vi tin cy l 95% , mc { ngha =5% v n= 145 ta c
Trang
17
=1.96
So snh T> C nn ta bc b H0.
Kt lun: tin tit kim c nh hnng n mc chi tiu ca sinh vin. Tit kim cng
tng th chi tiu cng gim v ngc li tit kim cng gim th lm tng chi tiu cng
tng.
Bi ton 3:
Gi thuyt: S ln t tp cng bn b cng nhiu th sinh vin cng chi
tiu nhiu.
Bi ton kim nh:
{
Ta dng thng k T
nu Ho ng ta c
= 1.7187363

=1.96
So snh T< C nn ta ni: cha iu kin bc b H0
Kt lun: nhnng ln t tp bn b khng nh hng n chi tiu ca sinh
vin
Bi ton 4:
Chi tiu pht sinh thay i s nh hng n chi tiu ca sinh vin.
Bi ton kim nh:
{
Ta dng thng k T
T
nu Ho ng ta c
= -6.837936
Trang
18

=1.96
So snh T> C nn ta bc b H0 .
kt lun l: chi tiu pht sinh thay i s nh hng n tng chi tiu ca
sinh vin
Bi ton 5:
Kim nh m hnh trn c ph hp hay khng?
Ta c bi ton kim nh:
{
Ta dng thng k F
, vi k=5 v n=145 . Nu
Ho ng ta c F=
= 74.643283
Vi mc ngha 5%
, ta c C =
=2.37
Ta thy F> C bc b gi thuyt H0

kt lun: m hnh trn ph hp.
4.2.2 Kim nh m hnh mi:

Tuy m hnh trn ph hp, nhng trong qu trnh kim nh trn nhm xt thy bin s
ln t tp cng bn b khng c nh hng ti tng chi tiu, vy nn, nhom quyt nh tin
thm mt m hnh mi kim nh, xem xt m hnh no l ph hp nht.
M hnh 2:
Tin hnh chy m hnh trn vi s liu thu thp c ta c kt qu hi quy nh sau:
Trang
19
T kt qu hi quy ta c m hnh hi quy mu mi:
(Kim nh cc gi thuyt vi tin cy 95%)

Bi ton 1: kim nh s ph thuc ca tng chi tiu vo tng thu nhp
ta c bi ton kim nh:
{
Ta dng thng k T
T
nu H0 ng ta c :
= 17.0779

C
=1.96
So snh T> C nn ta bc b H0
Trang
20
Kt lun: tng thu nhp c nh hng ti mc chi tiu.

Bi ton 2: kim nh gi thuyt tit kim thay i th tng chi tiu s thay
i
ta c bi ton kim nh:
{
Ta dng thng k T
nu Ho ng ta c
= -8.0390
Vi tin cy l 95% , mc { ngha =5% v n= 145 ta c

=1.96
So snh T> C nn ta bc b H0.
Kt lun: tin tit kim c nh hng n mc chi tiu ca sinh vin. Tit kim cng
tng th chi tiu cng gim v ngc li tit kim cng gim th lm tng chi tiu cng
tng.
Bi ton 3: kim nh gi thuyt chi tiu pht sinh c nh hng n tng

chi tiu.
Bi ton kim nh:
{
Ta dng thng k T
T
nu Ho ng ta c
= - 6.8771

=1.96
So snh T> C nn ta bc b H0 .
Trang
21
kt lun l: chi tiu pht sinh thay i s nh hng n tng chi tiu ca
sinh vin
Bi ton 4: kim nh s ph hp ca m hnh
Ta c bi ton kim nh:
{
Ta dng thng k F
, vi k=4 v n=145 Nu
Ho ng ta c F=
= 97.1930
Vi mc ngha 5%
, ta c C =
=2.37
Ta thy F> C bc b gi thuyt H0

kt lun : m hnh trn ph hp.
4.2.3 La chn m hnh ph hp:
T nhng kim nh trn ta c th thy c hai m hnh u ph hp tuy nhin:
M hnh 1:
thch c
M hnh 2:
tc l m hnh 1 c th gii
68% b s liu
= 0.674048 tc l m hnh 2 c th gii
thch c
b s liu
ng thi cng vi nhiu kim nh khc, nhn thy bin s ln t tp bn b vn c nh

hng n tng chi tiu ca sinh vin, do nhm quyt nh vn gi nguyn m hnh 1. Tc
l m hnh :
Trang
22
4.2.4 Tng thu nhp v chi tiu pht sinh c nh hng nh nhau ti tng chi tiu
ca sinh vin khng?
Ta c ma trn hip phng sai ca cc h s tng qua trong m hnh 5

nh sau:
Ta tin hnh kim nh gi thuyt:

{
Nu H0 ng ta c thng k:
M Se(
) =
()
()
Vi mc ngha 0.05 v N = 145, ta c:
Trang
23
c t1455 t 0140
.05 1.960
V T c nn ta bc b H 0
kt lun: tng thu nhp v chi tiu pht sinh nh hng khc nhau ti mc chi tiu ca
sinh vin
3.1.1. Kim nh phng sai thay i.

ta c bi ton kim nh:
Hm hi quy ca Y theo X2, X3, X4, X5.
S dng kim nh White, vi s h tr ca Eview ta c kt qu sau:
Trang
24
Theo kt qu t bng trn ta thy nR2 = 6258680

c mc xc sut p_value = 0.0000 < 0.05
. nn ta bc b gi thuyt H0: phng sai
khng i.
vy: m hnh hi quy ca Y theo X2, X3, X4, X5 c xy ra hin tng phng sai thay i.
Cch khc phc:
Tin hnh chia hai v ca hm hi quy
tng th cho Xi bt k hnh thnh mt m hnh mi c phng sai

khng i.
Trang
25
4.2.5 M hnh c hin tng a cng tuyn xy ra khng?
(vi mc ngha 5%)

Vi m hnh chn ta c kt qu hi quy nh sau:
ma trn tng quan gia cc h s hi quy.
Trang
26
Xt cc m hnh hi quy ca Y theo tng bin:
+ hi quy Y theo X2, ta c kt qu

= 299.5006 + 0.525995X2 ; R2 = 0.446980
= 1566.871 0.024446X3 ; R2 = 0.000138
= -205.1314 + 0.167286X4 ; R2 = 0.196165
+ hi quy ca Y theo X5, ta c kt qu
= 1606.494 0.087820X5
-
Ngoi ra ta c cc gi tr VIF: ( vi r2 l h s xc nh ca m hnh hi quy ph gia cc bin) ta

c th quan st ma trn tng quan gia cc h s hi quy trn.
Xt gia X2 v X3:
< 10
Trang
27
Kt lun: khng c a cng tuyn gia X2 v X3
Xt gia X2 v X4:

Xt gia X2 v X5:

Xt gia X3 v X4:

Xt gia X3 v X5:

Xt gia X4 v X5:

Kt lun: khng c hin tng a cng tuyn xy ra gia cc bin
4.2.6 M hnh trn c t tng quan khng?
Vi kt qu hi quy ca Y theo X ta c gi tr: d =1.876276

Tc l: 1 < d < 3 nn ta kt lun: m hnh khng c hin tng t tng
quan.
Trang
28
4.3 Xc nh khong tin cy ca cc h s hi quy tng th (vi tin cy

95%)
Ta dng thng k sau:
Vi mc tin cy 95%,
.ta c
C=
= 1.96
Theo m hnh 5 ta c:
Se () = 0.046734
Se () = 0.113150
Se () = 5.432170
Se () = 0.091526
Khong c lng cho
[
()
4.3.1 Xc nh khong tin cy ca 2
4.3.2 Xc ng khong tin cy ca 3
Trang
29
CHNG 5
KT LUN
5.1 nh gi m hnh
Theo thc nghim kho st v nghin cu cho thy rng m hnh a ra ngay t
u l tng i chnh xc.
Y = 163.3541 + 0.743385X2 0.879792X3 + 9.336468X4 0.625849X5
Tuy nhin trong mt vi trng hp th bin s ln t tp cng bn b khng
c nh hng ti tng chi tiu trong thng ca sinh vin. a s cc trng hp
kim nh cho thy mc chi tiu ca sinh vin ph thuc vo: tng thu nhp, tin
tit kim, chi tiu pht sinh. V mt phn nh t vic t tp cng bn b.
Hn ch:
Bi lm ca nhm thc hin bn cnh nhng vic t c th cng km
theo mt s hn ch nh:
+ u tin l v bi kho st ch c thc hin trong mi trng ca sinh
vin khoa marketing, trng i hc Ti chnh-Marketing nn t hn vn
cha thuyt phc lm khi cho nh gi ton b chi tiu ca sinh vin
+ nhm ch nghin cu tc ng ca mt vi bin tiu biu nn c th tnh
khch quan cng nh chnh xc ca bi lm cha cao.\
+ l ln u tin thc hin nn cha c kinh nghim trong vic nhy bn
nm bt thng tin v ng dng chng hiu qu
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30
5.2 ngha
Sau qu trnh kho st v nghin cu trn cho thy rng tng chi tiu trong
thng ca sinh vin chu nh hng ca nhiu yu t. thu nhp t gia nh hay t
vic lm thm cng nhiu th chi tiu li cng nhiu, tin tit kim cng nh chi
tiu pht sinh cng nhiu th tng chi tiu li cng gim chnh v th m cn
bng cho cuc sng cng nh chi tiu ph hp th mi ngi cn xy dng mt k
hoch chi tiu ph hp cho ring mnh d dng m bo ti sn cho ti cui
thng nha.
5.3 M rng m hnh

Ngoi nhng bin m nhm kho st th tt nhin cn nhiu yu t khc cng nh hng
n chi tiu ca sinh vin nh: s nh hng ca gii tnh, tui, sinh vin nm my. v th
chnh xc cng nh hon thin hn c th m rng m hnh vi nhng tc ng k trn.
Trang
31

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ti tnh hnh chi

tiu ca sinh vin

CHNG 2 C S L LUN ................................................................................................. 5

CHNG 3 THU THP S LIU .............................................................................................. 7

3.2 Bin ph thuc, bin c lp v n v tnh ..............................................................................8

Phm vi thu thp s liu .......................................................................................................8

CHNG 4 C LNG V KIM NH M HNH ............................................................. 15

4.1.1 c lng m hnh hi quy tuyn tnh mu ...........................................................................................15

4.2 Kim nh m hnh ................................................................................................................ 17

4.3 Xc nh khong tin cy ca cc h s hi quy tng th (vi tin cy 95%)............................ 29

CHNG 5 KT LUN ........................................................................................................ 30

M rng m hnh ............................................................................................................... 31

1.1 Mc ch v ngha thc tin

Khi bc chn vo ging ng i hc th cng chnh l lc bn phi t ch v

1.2 Phm vi v phng php kho st

Phm vi: nghin cu sinh vin khoa marketing ca trng i hc ti chnh

Xt v mt l thuyt th c nhiu yu t nh hng n mc chi tiu ca sinh

2.1 Xy dng m hnh

Da theo nhng g m nhm nhn nh, nhm a ra m hnh hi quy tng

Tng thu nhp

Thu nhp cng cao sinh vin

Tin tit kim ca

gim bt tin chi tiu trong thng

Tin tit kim cng nhiu th s

C nhng vn khng lng

Vy nn nhm s thc hin kim nh vi m hnh hi quy mu:

Tng thu nhp

Thu nhp cng cao sinh vin

Tin tit kim ca

gim bt tin chi tiu trong thng

Tin tit kim cng nhiu th s

C nhng vn khng lng

3.2 Bin ph thuc, bin c lp v n v tnh

3.2 Phm vi thu thp s liu

BNG S LIU QUAN ST

Ngun: phiu kho st ti trng i hc Ti chnh- Marketing

Tin hnh chy m hnh hi quy trn vi b s liu thu thp c ta c kt qu

So snh vi gi thuyt, ta thy du ca cc h s i km vi cc bin tng

4.1.3 ngha h s xc nh m hnh

: khi cc bin cn li khng thay i, th tng thu nhp

tng (hoc gim) mt n v th tng chi tiu tng (hoc gim)

: khi cc bin cn li khng thay i, th tin tit kim

: khi cc bin cn li khng thay i, th s ln t tp

cng bn b tng (hoc gim) mt n v th tng chi tiu tng (hoc

TUY NHIN, ta thy theo kt qu hi quy cho thy du ca h s ca X5 l m, cha ng

: khi cc bin cn li khng thay i, th chi tiu pht

4.2 Kim nh m hnh

Ta c m hnh hi quy nm bin nh trnh by trn:

(Kim nh cc gi thuyt vi mc tin cy 95%)

Vi tin cy l 95% , mc ngha =5% v n= 145 ta c

Vi tin cy l 95% , mc { ngha =5% v n= 145 ta c

Vi tin cy l 95% , mc ngha =5% v n= 145 ta c

Vi tin cy l 95% , mc ngha =5% v n= 145 ta c

Ta thy F> C bc b gi thuyt H0

4.2.2 Kim nh m hnh mi:

T kt qu hi quy ta c m hnh hi quy mu mi:

(Kim nh cc gi thuyt vi tin cy 95%)

Vi tin cy l 95% , mc ngha =5% v n= 145 ta c

Kt lun: tng thu nhp c nh hng ti mc chi tiu.

Vi tin cy l 95% , mc { ngha =5% v n= 145 ta c

Bi ton 3: kim nh gi thuyt chi tiu pht sinh c nh hng n tng

Vi tin cy l 95% , mc ngha =5% v n= 145 ta c

Ta thy F> C bc b gi thuyt H0

ng thi cng vi nhiu kim nh khc, nhn thy bin s ln t tp bn b vn c nh