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PHN TCH HI QUI TUYN TNH A BIN

M hnh hi qui tuyn tnh n bin dng xem xt mi quan h tuyn tnh gia
bin ph thuc y (bin kt cc) v bin c lp x (bin d on). Phng trnh tuyn
tnh (ng thng) n bin c dng:

y= + xi+i
Trong l im ct trn trc tung, l dc (trong thng k gi l h s hi
qui) v l phn d. V d tm s lin h gia lng cholesterol mu ( x) v b dy
lp ni trung mc (NTM) ng mch cnh (y).
Tuy nhin trong y sinh hc, thng c rt nhiu yu t khc nhau dn n mt hin
tng. V d nh hin tng dy lp NTM ng mch cnh khng ch do lng
cholesterol mu m cn do nhiu yu t khc nh di truyn, chng tc, mc bnh tim
mch, tui, gii, BMI, tng huyt p, i tho ng....V vy cn phi c m hnh
hi qui tuyn tnh a bin. Trong v d ny ta khng cp cc yu t di truyn,
chng tc, gii, mc bnh tim mch... m ch lu n cc bin s nh: tui,
cholesterol, glucose, huyt p tm thu v BMI.
V d: d liu o b dy lp NTM ng mch cnh trn siu m 100 bnh nhn c
bnh tim mch nh sau:
D liu ny c 7 ct: ID bnh nhn, tui (nm), BMI (kg/m2), huyt p tm thu
(mmHg), glucose mu (mmol/L), cholesterol (mmol/L), b dy lp NTM trn siu m
(mm). (Ghi ch: c th copy d liu ny vo Excel, sau chuyn vo SPSS
thc tp)
Bng 1. D liu b dy NTM ca 100 bnh nhn
ID
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23

TUOI
56
76
63
78
87
76
55
74
81
77
29
71
77
59
58
34
74
61
53
65
80
71
90

BMI
21
18
16
20
20
19
31
22
21
24
20
22
21
18
27
19
22
19
20
28
19
25
24

HA
160
150
160
100
110
150
160
100
120
160
120
160
160
150
130
130
100
170
130
140
160
160
160

GLUCOSE
14.0
12.0
4.4
4.0
4.6
4.6
5.5
6.8
5.8
5.4
3.8
3.3
5.1
6.0
6.9
4.5
10.6
18.0
25.0
6.5
4.8
6.2
4.7

CHOLESTEROL
6.00
4.97
6.39
7.00
4.10
2.74
4.60
5.04
4.75
6.94
4.84
6.63
4.93
4.55
6.70
3.20
4.30
6.80
5.50
6.80
5.74
6.90
7.00

BEDAYNTM
1.95
1.33
.83
2.00
1.30
1.16
1.00
1.00
.80
1.60
.65
1.00
.97
.73
1.10
1.10
1.10
.80
.99
1.00
1.13
1.00
1.70

24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99

44
91
75
60
51
91
45
62
65
70
56
51
75
58
61
72
82
95
56
36
67
64
81
46
56
60
35
55
70
64
64
58
73
41
74
21
67
57
69
53
58
54
49
59
65
42
75
72
82
70
42
32
61
60
76
78
71
49
36
74
53
56
60
83
68
69
31
34
41
72
54
54
55
76
70
85

24
27
22
24
22
29
24
24
19
22
27
19
18
32
19
18
25
24
21
28
18
22
22
22
22
24
19
21
20
23
19
27
23
24
23
23
25
23
21
34
23
29
17
22
23
22
24
21
24
18
24
19
21
26
19
27
26
24
23
21
21
19
20
21
23
19
21
21
20
22
22
28
24
15
25
21

120
150
160
140
150
120
170
140
150
160
150
120
140
160
160
120
90
120
160
130
100
130
140
160
150
140
120
160
150
130
160
160
140
110
100
160
150
140
120
140
160
130
130
140
150
150
100
140
190
160
160
140
140
130
160
120
150
140
140
140
140
140
160
120
130
100
120
140
120
160
170
150
160
140
180
160

6.0
6.1
6.2
4.7
4.8
4.2
4.9
5.4
12.0
3.6
5.7
4.7
10.1
4.7
5.2
22.2
8.2
11.0
4.9
4.5
5.5
6.2
5.0
3.3
4.1
7.1
7.4
5.4
6.2
5.7
5.9
26.0
5.6
10.0
5.3
5.0
3.5
6.4
7.6
8.1
9.0
6.4
6.3
7.0
5.9
3.9
6.4
11.0
18.0
3.3
6.0
4.0
5.2
11.3
5.1
4.9
6.6
4.3
4.3
17.0
5.6
4.1
4.9
7.9
4.0
4.4
4.1
6.7
2.7
6.4
6.2
4.2
5.0
3.1
4.0
5.2

3.40
4.92
6.08
6.25
5.40
6.54
3.91
5.30
2.60
6.85
3.75
5.84
6.91
5.01
4.00
4.88
4.20
4.47
6.90
4.71
5.70
3.00
5.06
4.61
4.15
5.30
4.10
3.00
2.57
6.78
5.62
8.07
3.00
3.31
4.73
4.00
3.60
5.30
6.00
6.49
7.00
7.48
5.19
3.00
6.70
7.00
6.60
5.75
4.70
4.61
6.30
2.00
2.50
4.79
5.31
3.80
7.13
5.50
4.20
3.30
5.90
4.73
3.00
5.88
5.39
6.15
3.94
3.83
4.93
7.00
8.18
8.16
7.20
5.24
4.40
5.20

.90
.89
.80
.81
1.20
.82
.89
1.19
.97
.97
.97
.88
.97
.90
.89
.80
1.13
1.20
.90
.81
.80
.74
2.66
.89
.79
.80
.56
.80
1.20
.82
.90
1.00
1.15
1.16
.97
.80
1.67
1.06
1.10
.80
1.70
.99
1.16
.62
1.00
.82
1.00
1.70
2.30
.89
.97
.70
1.10
1.01
1.15
.92
1.10
.80
.70
1.00
.80
.89
.60
1.50
.70
1.10
.81
.70
.71
2.70
1.13
1.70
.90
1.16
1.00
.97

100

87

22

130

9.0

5.20

2.30

M hnh hi qui tuyn tnh a bin c dng:

y= + 1x1i+ 2x2i + 3x3i + ......+........+ kxki + i


Vi v d trn ta c th vit phng trnh hi qui tuyn tnh a bin vi 5 yu t
(x1=tui, x2=cholesterol, x3=glucose, x4=huyt p TT v x5= BMI) nh sau:
B dy NTM= + 1(tui) + 2(cholesterol) + 3(glucose) + 4(huyt p TT) + 5
(BMI) + ....+
Trong phn tch hi qui tuyn tnh a bin, ta cn bit mc nh hng ca tng
yu t ln bin kt cc y (b dy lp NTM trong v d ny). Mun bit mc nh
hng cn lu n cc tr s sau:
1. H s tng quan R (coefficient of correlation): yu t no c R cng ln th
nh hng cng nhiu
2. Bnh phng ca R (R square): yu t no c R2 cng ln th mi quan h
gia yu t v bin y cng cht ch.
3. H s hi qui (regression coefficient): yu t no c cao th nh hng
nhiu hn, tuy nhin cc yu t c n v khc nhau (tui, mmol/L, mmHg....)
nn khng th so snh mc nh hng gia cc yu t. Nu mun so snh
phi i cc yu t c cng n v l lch chun, lc ta c h s hi qui
chun ha: S= .

( Vi Sx l lch chun ca x tng ng v Sy l

lch chun ca y). Da vo cng thc trn, ta tnh c h s hi qui


chun ca tui (0,42), cholesterol (0,22), glucose (0,14), huyt p (0,10) v
BMI (0,02)
4. Tr s p (p value): cng nh mc nh hng cng mnh.
Vo SPSS, phn tch tng n bin xem cc tr s ny:
Phn tch hi qui tuyn tnh n bin trong SPSS.
Vo Analyse> Regression > Linear
M hp thoi Linear Regression. Nhp chuyn BEDAYNTM vo Dependent (trc
tung) v cholesterol vo Independent (trc honh).

Nhn vo nt Statistics, nh du nhy vo cc : Estimates, Model fit, R squared


change v Descriptives.

Nhn nt Continue, sau nhn OK


Kt qu nh sau:

Tng t thay th cholesterol bng yu t khc: tui, glucose....ta c th tm tt cc


tr s trong bng sau:
Bng 2. Tng hp cc tr s trong phn tch hi qui tuyn tnh n

R2

Tui

0,011

0,406

0,408

0,166

0,000

Cholesterol

0,062

0,748

0,219

0,048

0,020

Glucose

0,013

0,981

0,140

0,020

0,165

HA tm thu

0,002

0,771

0,107

0,011

0,290

BMI

0,003

0,999

0,027

0,001

0,788

Cc yu t

: H s hi qui; :im ct trn trc tung; R: h s tng quan; p: ngha thng k


Ta c th vit cc phng trnh tuyn tnh n sau:
1. B dy NTM= 0,748 + 0,062 (cholesterol)
2. B dy NTM= 0,406 + 0,011 (tui)
3. B dy NTM= 0,981 + 0,062 (glucose)
4. B dy NTM= 0,771 + 0,002 (Huyt p TT)

5. B dy NTM= 0,999 + 0,003 (BMI)


Nhn vo bng phn tch n bin ta thy h s tng quan R ca tui cao nht
(0,408) ri n >cholesterol (0,219)>Glucose (0,140) >HA tm thu (0,107)>BMI
(0,027). Nh vy tui v cholesterol l 2 yu t c nh hng nhiu nht lm dy
lp NTM.
Tr s R2 cng tng t nh vy. Trong thng k tr s R2 c din dch nh sau:
S thay i ca tui gii thch c 16,6% s thay i ca b dy lp NTM
S thay i ca cholesterol gii thch c 4,8% s thay i ca b dy lp NTM.
Tng t glucose gii thch c 2%, HA tm thu gii thch c 1,1%, v
BMI ch gii thch c 0,1% s thay i lp b dy NTM. Tm li nu cng li tt
c cc yu t trn ch gii thch c khong 24,6% s thay i b dy ca lp
NTM. Nh vy c th cn c nhiu yu t khc lm tng b dy lp NTM nh do di
truyn, chng tc, gii tnh hoc mc bnh tim mch (khng thuc phm vi bi
nghin cu ny).
H s hi qui (nu +: t l thun v t l nghch).Trong thng k h s hi qui
c din dch nh sau:
C tui tng ln 1 n v (1 tui) th b dy lp NTM tng ln 0,011 mm
C cholesterol tng ln 1 n v (1mmol/L) th b dy lp NTM tng ln 0,062 mm
C glucose tng ln 1 n v (1 mmol/L) th b dy lp NTM tng ln 0,013 mm
C HA tm thu tng ln 1 n v (1 mmHg) th b dy lp NTM tng ln 0,002 mm
C BMI tng ln 1 n v (kg/m2) th b dy lp NTM tng ln 0,003 mm.
Nu nhn tr s p ( p value) ta thy ch c 2 yu t c ngha thng k l tui v
cholesterol.
By gi nu a tt c cc bin vo cng lc phn tch a bin.
Vo Analyse> Regression> Linear Regession. M hp thoi Linear Regession.
Nhp chuyn tt c 5 bin (TUOI, CHOLESTEROL, HUYETAPTT, GLUCOSE, BMI)
vo Independent (s) v nhp chuyn BEDAYNTM vo Dependent.

Nhn OK, kt qu nh sau:

Lc ny phng trnh hi qui tuyn tnh a bin c th vit nh sau:


B dy NTM= -0,108 + 0,01(tui) + 0,038 (cholesterol) + 0,008 (glucose)
+ 0,002 (huyt p)
( B BMI v h s hi qui gn bng 0)
H s tng quan chung l R=0,457 v tt c 5 yu t ny ch gii thch c gn
21% (R2=0,209) s thay i ca b dy NTM.
Nhn vo tr s p (ct cui cng-Sig.), ch c tui l c gi tr thng k vi p=0,000.
Nh vy trong phn tch tng bin ring l (phn tch n bin) th tui v
cholesterol c ngha thng k. Trong phn tch a bin ch cn tui l c ngha
c lp gii thch s thay i b dy lp NTT. Tht vy, gia tui v b dy lp NTM
c tng quan cao nht (R=0,408) v gii thch 16,6% s thay i ca b dy NTM.
Bn yu t cn li gii thch vo khong 5% s tng b dy lp NTM.
Kt lun: Ch c tui l yu t c lp c ngha d on b dy lp NTM ng
mch cnh, cc yu t khc nh cholesterol, glucose, huyt p, BMI khng c hoc
c rt t nh hng trn b dy lp NTM.

TS Nguyn Ngc Rng, email:rangbvag@yahoo.com


Website:bvag.com.vn
Ti liu tham kho:
1. Schneider A, Hommel G, Blettner M. Linear regression analysis: part 14 of a
series on evaluation of scientific publications. Dtsch Arztebl Int. 2010
Nov;107(44):776-82.
2. Tripepi G, Jager KJ, Stel VS, Dekker FW, Zoccali C. How to Deal with
Continuous and Dichotomic Outcomes in Epidemiological Research: Linear and
Logistic Regression Analyses. Nephron Clin Pract. 2011 Feb 23;118(4):c399c406.
3. Hong Trng v Chu Nguyn Mng Ngc, Phn tch d liu nghin cu vi
SPSS. Nh xut bn thng k nm 2005

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