TRNG I HC NNG

BAN O TO SAU I HC
-----o0o-----

TIU LUN MN HC KINH T LNG

TI:

Nghin cu cc nhn t nh hng n GDP cc tnh, thnh

ph ca Vit Nam nm 2008
Ging vin hng dn

: GS.TS. TRNG B THANH

Lp

: TCNH K22

Danh sch nhm

1. o Ngc Chu
2. V Th Thu
3. L Th Thanh Thy
4. L Th Bo Thoa

Thng 6 nm 2011

Tiu lun Kinh t lng

Lp Cao hoc Ti chnh ngn hng K22

LI M U
Tng trng kinh t lun l vn quan tm hng u ca cc nh kinh t
v cc nh hoch nh chnh sch. Tc tng trng kinh t s nh hng n
ton b s vn ng nn kinh t v l mt trong nhng ch tiu quan trng
nh gi mc pht trin ca mt quc gia. phn nh tng trng kinh t,
cc nh kinh t s dng s liu v GDP, mt ch tiu m chng ta bit l phn
nh tng thu nhp ca mi ngi trong nn kinh t. y l ch tiu c nhiu
nh kinh t coi l ch tiu tt nht phn nh tnh hnh hot ng ca nn kinh
t, GDP l thc o thnh tu kinh t .
Tng trng kinh t la iu kin quyt inh thuc y s phat trin kinh t
cua quc gia, no cho phep giai quyt cac vn xa hi, la c s phat trin
giao duc va khoa hoc cng ngh. Hn th, tng trng bn vng se gop phn bao
v mi trng. Mc tng trng kinh t ca bt c quc gia nao cung u
ph thuc vo cc yu t u vo v u ra. Nghin cu v s ng gp ca cc
yu t i vi tng trng GDP c ngha v nhiu mt, khng nhng xc nh
v tr ca tng yu t c k hoch khai thc, m cn c ngha xc nh c
yu t tim n gia tng lm pht.
GDP thc t ca Vit Nam hin nay cao gp khong 3 ln so vi cch y
15 nm, nhng nh chng ta bit, tc tng trng GDP ca Vit Nam trong
nm 2008 ch trn 6%, thp hn rt nhiu so vi t l trn 8% ca nhng nm
trc . Tc tng trng kinh t gim st nh hng rt ln n kinh t,
chnh tr, x hi ca Vit nam. Mc sng ca ngi dn gim st, thu ht u t
nc ngoi gp nhiu kh khn, tht nghip tng, quy m hot ng ca cc
doanh nghip b thu hp, cn cn thng mi pht trin theo chiu hng xu,
lm pht mc caoc rt nhiu nhng hu qu kh lng trc c nu
Vit nam khng nhanh chng khc phc tnh trng tht li ca nn kinh t, tc l
ngay lp tc tm mi cch thc y s gia tng ca GDP c nc trn c s y
mnh sc tng GDP ca cc tnh thnh trong nc. thc hin c iu ,
-1-

Tiu lun Kinh t lng

Lp Cao hoc Ti chnh ngn hng K22
chng ta cn phi tm ra nhng nguyn nhn dn n tnh trng suy gim tc
tng trng kinh t, xem xt v phn tch cc nhn t nh hng n GDP c
nc trn c s phn tch bin ng GDP ca tng tnh, thnh. lm c iu
ny, mt trong nhng phng php l s dng kinh t lng phn tch v mt
lng mi quan h gia cc nhn t tc ng n GDP da trn cc s liu thc
t thu thp c.
Vi mong mun tm hiu r hn mc nh hng ca cc yu t n ch
tiu GDP bng m hnh kinh t lng, d bo cc nhn t tc ng t c
c s cng c thm cc gi thit kinh t, gip cho nh qun l a ra nhng
quyt nh ng n, nhm chng ti chn ti: Nghin cu cc nhn t
nh hng n GDP cc tnh, thnh ca Vit Nam nm 2008.

-2-

Tiu lun Kinh t lng

Lp Cao hoc Ti chnh ngn hng K22

NI DUNG
I. C S LY THUYT
Tng san phm trong nc (GDP) la toan b gia tri cua cac hang hoa va
dich vu cui cung c san xut ra trong pham vi lanh th quc gia trong mt
khoang thi gian nht inh (thng la 1 nm). Nh vy GDP la kt qua cua toan
b hoat ng kinh t din ra trn lanh th mt nc, khng phn bit kt qua
thuc v ai va do ai san xut ra. Vi ring tng tnh, thnh GDP c hiu l
tng sn phm a phng, la toan b gia tri cua cac hang hoa va dich vu cui
cung c san xut ra trong pham vi ca a phng trong mt khong thi
gian nht nh, thng l mt nm.
Lm th no tnh GDP ?
Phng php tnh ton cho GDP rt phc tp nhng nhn chung c ba phng
php: Phng php chi tiu, phng php thu nhp, phng php gi tr gia
tng. D l phng php no i na, cc tr s ny trn thc t phi bng nhau
hay t nht cng gn gn nh vy.
Phng php thu nhp, c cp nh GDP(I), c tnh ton bng cch cng
s tin lng trc thu (compensation) ca cc nhn vin, li tc trc thu
(gross profits) ca tt c hng xng, v tng s tin gip (khng thu) bi
chnh ph trn cc hng ha hay thng v. Phng php chi tiu th thng dng
hn, n gm tt c s tin tiu th, u t, tin chi tiu ca chnh quyn, v hiu
s gia xut cng v nhp cng.
Tng sn lng ni a c tnh da vo cng thc: (Theo phng php chi
tiu)
GDP = C + G + I + NX
vi
"C" l s tin tiu xi ca tt c mi ngi trong quc gia
"G" l s tin tiu xi ca chnh ph
-3-

Tiu lun Kinh t lng

Lp Cao hoc Ti chnh ngn hng K22
"I" l s tin tiu xi ca tt c doanh nghip
"NX" l hiu s ca xut cng v nhp cng
Lao ng : cht lng u vo ca lao ng tc l k nng, kin thc v
k lut ca i ng lao ng l yu t quan trng nht ca tng trng kinh t.
Hu ht cc yu t khc nh t bn, nguyn vt liu, cng ngh u c th mua
hoc vay mn c nhng ngun nhn lc th kh c th lm iu tng t.
Cc yu t nh my mc thit b, nguyn vt liu hay cng ngh sn xut ch c
th pht huy c ti a hiu qu bi i ng lao ng c trnh vn ha, c
sc khe v k lut lao ng.
u t trc tip nc ngoi: u t ni chung v u t trc tip nc
ngoi ni ring l mt nhn t quan trng ca qu trnh sn xut, ty theo mc
u t m ngi lao ng c s dng nhng my mc, thit b...nhiu hay
t (t l t bn trn mi lao ng) v to ra sn lng cao hay thp. u t tc
tip nc ngoi l qu trnh di chuyn vn quc t m trong ch s hu vn
s trc tip tham gia vo iu hnh v s dng vn. Hin nay lng vn u t
trc tip t nc ngoi vo Vit Nam ang ngy cng tng. c c t bn,
phi thc hin u t ngha l hy sinh tiu dung cho tng lai. iu ny c bit
quan trng trong s pht trin di hn, nhng quc gia c t l u t tnh trn
GDP cao thng c c s tng trng cao v bn vng. Tuy nhin, t bn
khng ch l my mc, thit b do t nhn du t cho sn xut, n cn l t bn
c nh x hi nhng th to tin cho sn xut v thng mi pht trin. T
bn c nh x hi thng l nhng d n quy m ln, gn nh khng th chia
nh c v nhiu khi c li sut tng dn theo quy m nn phi do chnh ph
thc hin. V d: h tng ca sn xut (ng giao thng, mng li in quc
gia...), sc khe cng ng, thy li....u t trc tip nc ngoi l mt nhn t
quan trng nh hng n GDP ca mt quc gia.
Chi ngn sch ca chnh ph: l nhng hng ha v dch v m chnh
ph mua, cc khon chuyn giao thu nhp m chnh ph thc hin v cch thc
-4-

Tiu lun Kinh t lng

Lp Cao hoc Ti chnh ngn hng K22
chnh ph trang tri cc khon . Hu ht cc khon chi tiu ca chnh ph
c trang tri bng thu, khi chi tiu vt qu ngun thu nhn c th ngn
sch s thm ht. Nu chnh ph thay i chi ngn sch s lm thay i GDP ca
quc gia.
Xut khu: trong tnh ton GDP, xut khu c coi l nhu cu t bn
ngoi. Mc ph thuc ca mt nn kinh t vo xut khu c o bng t l
gia gi tr nhp khu v tng thu nhp quc dn. i vi nhng nn kinh t m
cu ni a yu th xut khu c ngha quan trng i vi tng trng kinh t.
Chnh v th nhiu nc ang pht trin theo ui chin lc cng nghip ha
hng vo xut khu. Tuy nhin, v xut khu ph thuc vo yu t nc ngoi
nn m bo kinh t tng trng n nh v bn vng, IMF thng khuyn
ngh cc nc phi da nhiu hn na vo cu ni a. y cng l mt nhn t
quan trng nh hng n GDP.
II/ THIT LP M HNH TNG QUT:
1. Nhng gi nh ban u cho m hnh.
Vic xy dng m hnh bi s dng phng php bnh phng b nht
(OLS) nn cn thit a cc gi nh:
- Sai s tun theo quy lut phn phi chun: N(0,2).
- Gi tr trung bnh ca sai s bng khng: E(i) = 0.
- Phng sai sai s ng nht theo tt c quan st:Var(i) = E(i) = 2 vi
mi i.
- Sai s ngu nhin s c lp thng k ln nhau. Gi nh khng c t
tng quan: E(i ,j) = Cov(i, j) vi mi i # j
- Cc X2, X3,...,Xk l nhng gi tr khng ngu nhin v cho trc.

-5-

Tiu lun Kinh t lng

Lp Cao hoc Ti chnh ngn hng K22

2. Xy dng m hnh:
Qua phn tch mi quan h gia GDP v cc nhn t nh hng, m hnh
c xy dng:
+

= +1 2 + +
3 4
2

+ Ui

Trong :
- 2 : h s co gin ring ca GDP i vi lao ng, cho bit GDP
tng( gim) bao nhiu triu USD khi lao ng tng (gim) mt ngn ngi, vi
iu kin cc nhn t khc khng i.
- 3 : h s co gin ring ca GDP i vi u t trc tip nc ngoi, cho
bit GDP tng( gim) bao nhiu triu USD khi u t trc tip nc ngoi tng
(gim) mt triu USD, vi iu kin cc nhn t khc khng i.
- 4 : h s co gin ring ca GDP i vi chi ngn sch chnh ph , cho
bit GDP tng( gim) bao nhiu triu USD khi chi ngn sch chnh ph tng
(gim) mt triu USD, vi iu kin cc nhn t khc khng i.
- 5 : h s co gin ring ca GDP i vi xut khu, cho bit GDP
tng( gim) bao nhiu triu USD khi xut khu tng (gim) mt triu USD, vi
iu kin cc nhn t khc khng i.
Chng ta thy cc bin c quan h t l thun vi GDP nn k vng cc
h s c lng ca m hnh mang du dng.
III/ NGUN D LIU V M T D LIU:
- D liu c thu thp t trang Web s liu thng k ca Vit Nam v
mt s trang Web khc.
- S liu phn nh gi tr GDP, lao ng, u t trc tip nc ngoi, chi
ngn sch chnh ph, xut khu ca 46 tnh, thnh trong c nc.

-6-

Tiu lun Kinh t lng

Lp Cao hoc Ti chnh ngn hng K22
1/ Bng tn bin trong m hnh:
STT
1
2
3
4
5

Tn bin
Y
X2
X3
X4
X5

Loi bin
Ph thuc
c lp
c lp
c lp
c lp

nh ngha
GDP
Lao ng
u t trc tip nc ngoi
Chi ngn sch
Xut khu

n v o
Triu USD
Nghn ngi
Triu USD
Triu USD
Triu USD

2/ Cc d liu thu thp:

STT
Tnh, thnh ph
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26

GDP(Yi
)
(triu
USD)

H Ni
12012.84
Bc Ninh
1018.90
Hi Phng
2019.07
Thi Bnh
174.14
Bc Kn
125.57
Yn Bi
275.04
Thi Nguyn
863.44
Lai Chu
569.33
Ngh An
1312.92
H Tnh
484.36
Qung Tr
567.90
Tha Thin - Hu
627.96
Nng
1449.04
Lm ng
705.08
Ninh Thun
332.34
Bnh Dng
746.95
B Ra - Vng Tu 2119.96
TP H Ch Minh
15867.50
Ph Yn
443.08
ng Nai
1750.94
Tuyn Quang
53.85
Bnh nh
1274.17
Qung Ngi
921.08
Vnh Phc
1526.04
Bc Liu
441.42
Kin giang
900.55

Lao ng
(X2)
(nghn
ngi)
2853.52
521.32
894.99
1034.83
166.68
364.59
586.48
328.92
1338.31
593.62
268.07
523.74
336.42
510.67
260.41
388.48
387.86
2937.58
435.79
1026.19
350.65
820.01
690.85
621.64
417.93
864.87
-7-

u t trc
Xut
Chi ngn
tip nc
khu
sch (X4)
ngoi
(X5)
(triu
(X3)
(triu
USD)
(triu USD)
USD)
3.0809
1079.67
6936.21
0.9423
165.53
1640.79
1.1052
147.12
820.96
0.1458
130.03
100.53
0.1553
273.77
30.96
0.1606
147.23
127.40
0.8565
157.30
520.95
0.2902
135.04
114.62
0.4791
151.78
335.47
0.7512
206.83
131.75
0.8759
126.08
257.68
0.296
137.63
481.48
0.5794
183.35
905.11
0.3154
160.30
1128.65
0.5978
85.60
185.77
0.4845
114.09
1463.27
0.149
191.04
446.62
7.8791
886.23
20657.09
0.8459
107.98
237.70
1.7827
193.35
197.54
0.0566
132.55
54.88
0.1785
157.42
166.76
0.5559
134.90
585.43
1.6543
154.00
905.89
0.167
202.68
247.32
0.604
158.55
768.98

Tiu lun Kinh t lng

27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46

Cn Th
Bnh Thun
Long An
Lng sn
Tin Giang
An Giang
Bnh Phc
Gia lai
Hi Dng
Hng Yn
H Nam
Nam nh
Ninh Bnh
Bc Giang
Thanh Ha
k Lk
Kon Tum
Qung Ninh
Ty Ninh
Khnh Ha

1000.96
1521.02
713.26
78.98
767.03
1080.11
339.10
405.58
1371.51
737.82
652.83
1229.73
480.95
979.70
2046.44
1165.14
319.89
732.58
686.80
1261.70

Lp Cao hoc Ti chnh ngn hng K22

986.87
640.42
820.17
409.00
957.75
1421.35
428.76
526.82
967.67
635.95
504.58
1181.32
516.58
903.00
1979.56
907.99
177.41
582.24
557.63
582.06

0.1292
0.729
0.4675
0.085
0.4
0.5784
0.04
0.109
0.3017
0.5555
0.43
0.9222
0.2393
0.2603
0.9069
0.5208
0.867
0.6686
0.4946
0.0407

175.33
139.00
128.10
160.31
122.73
160.54
214.95
177.57
136.55
108.46
92.96
207.67
137.06
209.89
135.49
126.12
112.07
160.80
202.29
130.38

797.54
960.96
677.15
186.09
738.51
839.85
215.44
969.31
707.64
845.26
764.31
1020.12
196.55
636.54
865.30
153.98
248.52
142.86
630.74
160.04

IV/ C LNG M HNH V KIM NH GI THUYT

1/ c lng m hnh
p dng phng php bnh phng b nht cho nhng s liu trn, ta c
kt qu cho m hnh c lng:

i= -1039,103 + 0,752 X2 + 463,668 X3 + 6,718 X4 + 0,254 X5

-8-

Tiu lun Kinh t lng

Lp Cao hoc Ti chnh ngn hng K22

M hnh trn phn nh :

- 2 = 0.752: GDP tng( gim) 0.752 triu USD khi lao ng tng (gim)
mt ngn ngi, vi iu kin cc nhn t khc khng i.
- 3 = 463,668: GDP tng( gim) 463,668 triu USD khi u t trc tip
nc ngoi tng (gim) mt triu USD, vi iu kin cc nhn t khc khng
i.
- 4 = 6.718: GDP tng( gim) 6.718 triu USD khi chi ngn sch chnh
ph tng (gim) mt triu USD, vi iu kin cc nhn t khc khng i.
- 5 = 0.254: GDP tng( gim) 0.254 triu khi xut khu tng (gim) mt
triu USD, vi iu kin cc nhn t khc khng i.
2/ Nhn xt v m hnh:
2.1. Kim nh s ph hp ca m hnh:
xc nh s tn ti ca m hnh, nhm s dng tiu chun kim nh F
qua SPSS vi mc ngha = 5%; k = 5, n = 46. Kt qu nh sau:

Quan st kt qu SPSS cho thy Sig = 0,000 < 0,05 : chng t rng m
hnh tn ti.
2.2. Kim nh gi thit cc tham s:
Tra bng phn phi Student, vi mc ngha 5%: T410,025 2,021
T *1 = 7,355 > T410,025

1 0

c ngha trong m hnh.

T*2 = 3,874 > T410,025

2 0 , X2 c ngha trong m hnh.

T*3= 2,506 > T410,025

3 0, X*3 c ngha trong m hnh.

T*4 = 9,289 > T410,025

2 0 , X*4 c ngha trong m hnh.

-9-

Tiu lun Kinh t lng

Lp Cao hoc Ti chnh ngn hng K22

2 0 , X*5 c ngha trong m hnh.

T*5 = 3,418 > T410,025

M hnh c h s R2 = 0,975 tc l trong hm hi quy mu cc bin c

lp gii thch c 97,5% bin ph thuc Y.
H s iu chnh bng 0,973 nn ph hp ca hm hi quy mu rt cao.
3/ Kim tra vi phm cc gi thit:
3.1/ Gi thuyt phn phi chun:
kim nh sai s ca m hnh c tun theo quy lut phn phi chun
hay khng, ta xem xt biu sau:

- 10 -

Tiu lun Kinh t lng

Lp Cao hoc Ti chnh ngn hng K22

Nhn xt biu : th ng cong chun ca bin ngu nhin c dng hnh

chung i xng, iu chng t bin ngu nhin ca m hnh tun theo phn
phi chun
Hoc dng kim nhShapiro-Wilk, v c mu 46 (nh hn 50), vi Sig.=0,215
(ln hn 0,05). Chng t phn phi ny l phn phi chun.

Ta xem biu Q-Q plot

- 11 -

Tiu lun Kinh t lng

Lp Cao hoc Ti chnh ngn hng K22
3.2/ Gi thuyt v a Cng Tuyn:
Nhng bin c lp trn c xc nh nhng cn phi la chn nhng
bin c lp c mc tng quan mnh vi bin ph thuc. Tin hnh nh
gi li s tng quan gia cc bin c lp vi bin ph thuc. Phng php
nh gi c la chn l gi tr h s tng quan |ryxi| c gi tr gn 1 nht
.Bng kt qu h s tng quan sau cho php la chn c cc bin c lp.
Correlations
Y
Pearson Correlation

Sig. (1-tailed)

X2

X3

X4

X5

1.000

.835

.914

.929

.929

X2

.835

1.000

.725

.768

.721

X3

.914

.725

1.000

.771

.950

X4

.929

.768

.771

1.000

.797

X5

.929

.721

.950

.797

1.000

.000

.000

.000

.000

X2

.000

.000

.000

.000

X3

.000

.000

.000

.000

X4

.000

.000

.000

.000

X5

.000

.000

.000

.000

46

46

46

46

46

X2

46

46

46

46

46

X3

46

46

46

46

46

X4

46

46

46

46

46

X5

46

46

46

46

46

Vi kt qu trn h s tng quan gia cc bin X i v Y tng i gn 1

nn tt c cc bin c lp u c chn.
- pht hin hin tng a cng tuyn trong m hnh ngi ta thng s
dng h s tng quan cp gia cc bin gii thch hoc s dng nhn t phng
i phng sai VIF. Nu h s tng quan cp gia cc bin gii thch > 0,8
hoc nhn t phng i phng sai VIF > 5 th s xy ra hin tng a cng
tuyn v ngc li.

- 12 -

Tiu lun Kinh t lng

Lp Cao hoc Ti chnh ngn hng K22

Theo bng ta thy:

- rx3x5 = 0,95 > 0,8
- H s VIF ca X3 v X5 > 5
Vy m hnh tn ti hin tng a cng tuyn.
- Ta c: ryx3 < ryx5 do bin X3 khng c la chn gii thch m hnh.
Hoc hi quy gia Y v cc bin cn li R2X3=0.971 > R2X5= 0.968=> B
bin X3
Nh vy cc bin c lp cn li xy dng m hnh l : X2; X4; X5.
S dng chng trnh SPSS vi 3 bin cn li. Kt qu nh sau:

M hnh c lng mi:

i= -936,299 + 0,835 X2 + 6,695 X4 + 0,414 X5

Quan st kt qu SPSS cho thy Sig = 0,000 < 0,05 : chng t rng m hnh tn
ti.

- 13 -

Tiu lun Kinh t lng

Lp Cao hoc Ti chnh ngn hng K22

M hnh c h s R2 = 0,971 tc l trong hm hi quy mu cc bin c

lp gii thch c 97,1% bin ph thuc Y. H s iu chnh bng 0, 969 nn
ph hp ca hm hi quy mu rt cao.
Qua kt qu t cc bng trn cho thy h s VIF ca cc bin < 5: khng
cn hin tng a cng tuyn.
3.3/ Gi thuyt t tng quan:
kim tra tnh t tng quan, s dng phng php kim nh DurbinWatson. Theo SPSS cho kt qu d = 2,047.
Tra bng thng k Durbin-Watson vi mc ngha =5%; n=46, k=3, ta
c:
Dl

Du

4-du

4-dl

1,383

1,666

2,334

2,617

Ta thy du < d < 4-du : Chng t khng c hin tng t tng quan
dng hoc m.
3.4/ Phng sai khng ng nht:
S dng kim nh White kim nh phng sai khng ng nht ca m
hnh.
Uc lng m hnh trn ta c cc phn d ei , ta tnh c ei2, ta xy dng m
hnh hi quy phn d nh sau :
ei2 = 1 + 2X2 + 3X4 +4X5 + 5X22 + 6X42 + 7X52+ Vi
c lng m hinh bng phn mm Eview (View/Residual Test/White
Heteroscedasticity) cho kt qu nh sau :
- 14 -

Tiu lun Kinh t lng

Lp Cao hoc Ti chnh ngn hng K22

White Heteroskedasticity Test:

F-statistic
1.854038
Obs*R-squared
10.20892

Probability
Probability

0.113732
0.116125

Test Equation:
Dependent Variable: RESID^2
Method: Least Squares
Date: 06/16/11 Time: 16:55
Sample: 1901:1 1912:2
Included observations: 46
Variable
Coefficient
C
-347277.3
X2
-123.8020
X2^2
0.023645
X4
4790.605
X4^2
-3.638057
X5
-22.40975
X5^2
-0.000942
R-squared
0.221933
Adjusted R-squared
0.102231
S.E. of regression
275549.3
Sum squared resid
2.96E+12
Log likelihood
-637.6943
Durbin-Watson stat
1.829171

Std. Error
t-Statistic
253292.8
-1.371051
399.5331
-0.309867
0.206814
0.114327
1615.799
2.964853
1.741316
-2.089257
116.6259
-0.192151
0.004996
-0.188517
Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

Prob.
0.1782
0.7583
0.9096
0.0051
0.0433
0.8486
0.8514
214669.4
290815.0
28.03019
28.30846
1.854038
0.113732

Qua bng trn ta thy Obs*R-squared = Xtt = nR2 = 10.20892

Xy dng cp gi thit :
Ho :1=2=3=4=5=6=7= 0 (Phng sai ng nht)
H1 : Phng sai khng ng nht
Vi mc ngha 5%, tra bng chi bnh phng (2) vi df=k-1= 7-1 = 6
2(6) = 12.5916
So snh Xtt vi 2(6) ta thy Xtt<2(6) ngha l chp nhn Ho, bc b gi
thit H1 ngha l m hnh khng tn ti hin tng phng sai khng ng nht.
V/ DIN DCH KT QU V KT LUN
1/ ngha kinh t ca m hnh
M hnh c lng:
i= -936,299 + 0,835 X2 + 6,695 X4 + 0,414 X5
- 2 = 0,835: GDP tng( gim) 0,835 triu USD khi lao ng tng (gim)
mt ngn ngi, vi iu kin cc nhn t khc khng i.

- 15 -

Tiu lun Kinh t lng

Lp Cao hoc Ti chnh ngn hng K22

- 4 = 6,695: GDP tng( gim) 6.695 triu USD khi chi ngn sch chnh
ph tng (gim) mt triu USD, vi iu kin cc nhn t khc khng i.
- 5 = 0,414: GDP tng( gim) 0,414 triu USD khi xut khu tng (gim)
mt triu USD, vi iu kin cc nhn t khc khng i.
2/ Kt lun
Kt qu tnh ton quan h gia cc ch tiu cho thy : cc nhn t lao
ng, chi ngn sch, xut khu u c quan h thun chiu vi GDP, mc tc
ng ca tng yu t ln GDP l khc nhau. Bn cnh cn c mt s nhn t
khc nh hng n GDP m nhm cha a c vo m hnh, chng hn nh:
tiu dng ca h gia nh, nhp khu Tuy vy m hnh cng phn tch
c phn ln tc ng ca nhng nhn t quan trng n s thay i GDP.
3/ Hng m rng nghin cu
M hnh ch thu thp c s liu ca 46 tnh thnh ch cha thu thp y
s liu ca tt c cc tnh thnh trong c nc. tng mc ngha cho
nghin cu cn thu thp thm s liu theo khng gian (cc tnh thnh), m bo
ln cua s liu.

- 16 -

Tiu lun Kinh t lng

Lp Cao hoc Ti chnh ngn hng K22

LI KT
c s phn cng ca thy nhm 01 thc hin ti ny vi s c
gng cao nht, v thi gian hn hp v kin thc cha tht s ton din nn nhm
rt mong s ng gp ca gio vin hng dn v cc bn trong lp. Xin cm n
s hng dn ca thy GS.TS Trng B Thanh.
Trn trng.

- 17 -

Tiu lun Kinh t lng

Lp Cao hoc Ti chnh ngn hng K22

TI LIU THAM KHO

1. Bi ging PGS.TS Trng B Thanh, i hc Kinh t Nng.
2. S liu thng k t trang Web: www.gso.gov.vn

-----------------******-----------------

- 18 -