Chng I: BIN C

V XC SUT CA BIN C

Bi 1.1:
a) Gi A l bin c xut hin mt su chm khi gieo con xc xc.
S kt cc ng kh nng n = 6. S kt cc thun li cho bin c A l m =1.
Vy:
P(A)=

m 1
=
n
6

b) Gi B l bin c mt c s chn chm xut hin.

S kt cc thun li cho B l n = 3. Vy:
P(B) =

m 3
= = 0.5
n 6

Bi 1.2:
a) Gi A l bin c ly ra tm ba c xut hin ch s 5. khi A l bin c
khng xut hin ch s 5. V s kt cc ng kh nng l 100, trong khi s kt
cc thun li cho A l 19, nn s kt cc thun li cho A l 81.
Vy
P ( A ) = 0.81.
b) t 1 n 100 c 50 s chn nn c 50 s chia ht cho 2.
C 20 s chia ht cho 5, trong 10 s va chia ht cho 5 va chia ht cho 2.
Do vy s kt cc thun li cho bin c ly ln ba c s hoc chia ht cho 2,
hoc chia ht cho 5, hoc chia ht cho c 2 v 5 l 50 +20-10 = 60.
Vy P(A)=

60
=0.6.
100

Bi 1.3:
a) A = qu cu th nht l trng

S kt cc duy nht ng kh nng l tt c cc phng php ly c 1 qu

cu ra khi (a+b) qu cu. Vy n = a+b.
S kt cc thun li ly ra qu cu th nht mu trng l a.
Vy xc sut P(A) =

a
a+b

b) Nu qu th nht trng th chn qu th 2 s cn a+b-1 kt cc ng kh

nng.
S kt cc thun li qu th 2 mu trng l a-1
Vy xc sut P(B) =

a-1
a+b-1

c) tng t cu b), v qu th hai l trng nn s kt cc ng kh nng khi chn

qu th nht l a+b-1 trong khi s kt qu thun li l a-1.
Vy P(C) =

a-1
a+b-1

Bi 1.4.
a) S kt qu ng kh nng thc ra hon v ca a + b qu cu nn m = (a+b)!
nu qu cu th 2 l trng th s kt qu thun li cho bin c ny l chnh hp
chp a+b-1 phn t ca a+b phn t.
Vy xc sut P(A) =

(a+b)!
.
Aa+b-1
a+b

b) gi B l bin c qu cu cui cng l trng. Khi tng t cu a), ta cng c

xc sut P(B) =

(a+b)!
Aa+b-1
a+b

Bi 1.5.
Sp (S)

Nga (N)

Sp (S)

SS

SN

Nga (N)

NS

NN

a) Da vo bng trn, c th thy s kt cc ng kh nng l 4.

S kt cc thun li cho bin c A = Hai mt cng sp xut hin l 1.
Vy P (A) =

1
= 0,25
4

b) S kt cc thun li cho bin c B = Mt sp mt nga l 2.

Vy xc sut P(B) =

2
= 0,5.
4

c) S kt cc thun li cho bin c C = C t nht 1 mt sp l 3.

Vy P(C) = 0,75.

Bi 1.6.
Gieo ng thi 2 con xc xc th s kt cc ng kh nng l 6.6=36.
a) c 6 kt cc thun li cho bin c A=hai mt c tng s chm bng 7 l
cc cp 1&6, 2&5, 3&4, 4&3, 5&2, 6&1 nn P(A) =

6 1
=
36 6

b) B = hai mt c tng s chm nh hn 8.

Bi =hai mt c s chm nhi hn i, vi i=2,3,7 (nh nht l 2)
B2 c 1 kt cc thun li
B3 c 2 kt cc thun li
B4 c 3 kt cc thun li
B5 c 4 kt cc thun li
B6 c 5 kt cc thun li
B7 c 6 kt cc thun li
Vy s kt cc thun li ca bin c B l 21.
Nn P(B) =

21
7
=
36 12

c) D = hai mt c t nht 1 mt 6 chm

khi s kt cc thun li cho D l 11.
Vy P(D) =

11
.
36

Bi 1.7.
S cch tr m c th xy ra l A33 =6.
d) c 3 ngi cng c tr ng m th ch c 1 kt cc thun li nn
P(D)=

1
6

c) Khng th c kh nng ch c ng 2 ngi c tr ng m, v chc chn

ngi th 3 cng s ng m, nn P( C) = 0
b) s kt cc thun li c ng 1 ngi c tr ng m l 3
Vy P(B) =

3
= 0,5.
6

a) xc sut c 3 ngi b tr sai m l:

P(A) = 1 -

1
1
- 0,5 =
6
3

Bi 1.8.
Ta c biu tp hp nh sau:

a) S hc sinh hc t nht 1 ngoi ng trn l 50% + 10% + 15% + 5% = 80%.

Vy xc sut ca bin c ny l P(A) = 0,8.
b) S hc sinh ch hc ting Anh v ting c l 10%.

Vy P(B) = 0,1.
c) S hc sinh ch hc ting Php l 15%
Vy xc sut l P( C) = 0,15.

Bi 1.9.
S kt cc ng kh nng l chnh hp chp 3 ca 10 s t nhin, nn m = A 310
= 720.
Ch c 1 kt cc thun li cho vic gi in ng s in thoi, vy xc sut
P=

1
720

Bi 1.10.
S kt cc ng kh nng khi thc hin php th ly ngu nhin 3 sn phm l
3
t hp chp 3 ca 15 phn t, vy n = C15
= 455

a) A = 3 chi tit ly ra t tiu chun th s kt cc thun li cho A l

3
C10
=120

P(A) =

120
= 0,264
455

b) B = ch c 2 chi tit t tiu chun th s kt cc thun li cho B l C 10

2 .5 =
225.
P (B) =

225
= 0,495
455

Bi 1.11:
S kt qu ng kh nng: P(6) = 6!
A= Xp c ch NGHNH
Ch N c 2 cch chn
Ch H c 2 cch chn
Ch G, , N mi ch c 1 cch chn
S kt qu ng kh nng xy ra A l: m = 2.2.1.1.1 = 4
P(A) =
=
Bi 1.12
a) Mi khch u c kh nng ra 6 tng cn li ca ta nh. Do s kt
cc ng kh nng n = 63 =216
A = Tt c cng ra tng 4, m=1
P(A) =
b) B= Tt c cng ra 1 tng
Tt c u c kh nng ra 6 tng cn li ca ta nh. Do :
P(B) = 6P(A) =
=
c) C = Mi ngi ra 1 tng khc nhau
P(C) =
=
Bi 1.13
S kh nng c th xy ra: P(12) =12!
A = Cc tp c xp th t t phi sang tri hc t tri sang phi nn m = 2
P(A) =
Bi 1.14
S kh nng c th xy ra:
a) A= Ly c 3 qun t
m=
=4

= 22100

P(A) =
=
b) B= Ly c 1 qun t
P(B) =
=
=
Bi 1.15
Chia ngu nhin l hng thnh 2 phn bng nhau tc l ly ngu nhin 5 sn
phm t 10 sn phm . Do s kh nng c th xy ra l: n =
= 252
Mi phn u c s chnh phm nh nhau tc l mi phn c 3 chnh phm, 2
ph phm. Do , m =
= 120
A = Mi phn c s chnh phm nh nhau

P(A) =
=
Bi 1.16
Mi v tr u c th nhn gi tr t 0 n 10
S kh nng c th xy ra l: n = 10 5
a) A= C 5 ch s khc nhau
P(A) =
= 0.3024
b) B= C 5 ch s u l
mi v tr u c th nhn gi tr 1, 3, 5, 7 ,9. Do : m= 55
P(B) =
=0.03125
Bi 1.17
S kh nng c th xy ra: P(5) = 120
a) A= C ngi chnh gia
m=1.P(4) = 24
P(A) =
= 0.2
b) B= A v B ngi 2 u gh

P(B) =
= 0.1
Bi 1.18
S kh nng c th xy ra:
A= Ly c 1 qu c s hiu nh hn k v 1 qu c s hiu ln hn k
m=
P(A) =
=
bi 1.19
S kt qu ng kh nng l:n= 6n
A = Tng s chm l n+1
S kt qu thun li cho A l m=n
P(A) =
Bi 1.20
f= 0,85
n=200
k = f.n = 0,85 . 200 =170
Bi 1.21
Gi A l bin c Sinh c con trai.
Theo bi ra ta c, xc sut sinh c con trai l :

P( A)

45600
0,517
88200

Bi 1.23
Gi A l bin c sn phm chn ra l chnh phm.
Gi A1 v A2 l bin c sn phm b mt ln lt l chnh phm v ph phm.
Vy yu cu ca bi ton l tnh xc sut c iu kin P(A1/A).
Ta c A1, A2 l h y v xung khc vi nhau tng i mt.
Ta c:
a
ab
b
P( A2)
ab
P( A1)

Theo cng thc Bayes ta c:

[P( A1).P( A / A1)]
P( A)
a 1
P( A / A1)
a b 1
a
P( A / A2)
a b 1

P( A1/ A)

Vi

P(A)= P(A1).P(A/A1) + P(A2).P(A/A2)

=

a(a 1)
a.b

(a b)(a b 1) (a b)(a b 1)

Vy:
P(A1/A)= (a-1)(a+b-1).
Bi 1.24
Theo bng s liu ta c, tng s nhn vin trong cng ty l :
120 + 170 + 260 + 420 + 400 + 230 = 1600 ( nhn vin)
Khi ly ngu nhin mt ngi ca cng ty th
a. Xc sut c mt nhn vin t 40 tui tr xung l :
120 170 260 420
0, 61
1600

b. Xc sut c mt nam nhn vin trn 40 l :

400
0, 25
1600

c. Xc sut c mt n nhn vin t 40 tui tr xung l :

170 420
0,37
1600

Bi 1.25
Gi A l bin c 3 bng in c ly ra trong hp c 4 bng hng u
tt
S kt hp ng kh nng xy ra l s t hp chp 3 t 12 phn t. Nh
vy ta c : n C123 220
S kt cc thun li cho A xy ra bng s t hp chp 3 ( bng in tt) t
8( trong 1 hp c 4 bng in b hng). Vy m= C83 56

Do xc sut mt hp bng n c chp nhn trong c 4 bng b

hng l :
P( A)

56
0, 254
220

Bi 1.26
Ta c n=8 kt cc kh nng l GGG, GGT, GTG, TTT, TGG, TGT, TTG.
a. Gi A l bin c Gia nh c hai con gi.
C 3 kt qu thun li cho A nn ta c :
P( A)

3
8

b. Gi B l bin c Gia nh c t nht 2 con gi .

S kt qu thun li cho B l 4 nn ta c :
P( B)

4 1

8 2

c. Gi C l bin c Gia nh c hai con gi bit rng a u lng l con

gi.
S kt qu thun li cho C l 2 nn ta c :
P(C )

1
4

d. Gi D l bin c Gia nh c t nht 2 a con gi bit rng gia nh

c t nht 1 a con gi.
Nu gia nh c t nht 1 a con gi th s kt cc ng kh nng l 7.
S kt cc thun li cho D l 4 nn ta c :
P( D)

4
7

Bi 1.27
Gi A l bin c C 3 ngi c ngy sinh nht trng nhau
S kt cc ng kh nng l t hp chp 3 ca 30 nn ta c :
n C303 4060

S kt cc c li cho bin c A l 30( v 1 thng c 30 ngy) nn ta c

P( A)

30
0, 008
4060

Gi B l bin c C 3 ngi c ngy sinh nht khc nhau

Do A v B l 2 bin c i nhau nn ta c P(B) = 1 P(A) = 0.992
Bi 1.28
Phn tch t d liu bi ta c :
7 sn phm ch b v np
4 sn phm ch b v vi
1 sn phm ch b m ming
5 sn phm va b m ming va b v np
3 sn phm va b st vi va m ming
7 sn phm va b st vi va b v np
1 sn phm c tt c cc khuyt im trn
a. Gi A l bin c sn phm c khuyt tt
S sn phm b khuyt tt l : 7+4+1+5+3+7+1=28

Vy :

P( A)

28
0, 28
100

b. Gi B l bin c sn phm ch b st vi
S sn phm ch b st vi l 4. Nh vy :
P( B)

4
0, 04
100

c. Gi C l bin c sn phm b st vi bit rng n v np

Gi D l bin c sn phm va b st vi va b v np
Gi E l bin c sn phm b c 3 khuyt tt
Nh vy C=D+E. Do D v E c lp vi nhau nn ta c :
P(C)= P(D) + P( E)
Vi P(D)=0,07 v P(E)= 0,01 nn ta c P(C)= 0,08
Bi 1.29
Gi A l bin c Khng c ngy no c qu 1 v tai nn lao ng
S kt cc ng kh nng l s chnh hp lp chp 6 t 92 phn t
n B926

S kt cc thun li l s chnh hp chp 6 t 92 phn t

m A926

Vy : P(A)

A926
0,85
B926

Bi 1.30
a. C n ngi xp thnh hang ngang th s c n! cch xp
Gi A l bin c m ngi trng tn ng cnh nhau khi h xp hng ngang.
Nu coi m ngi ng trng tn cnh nhau ny lag 1 ngi th ta c
(n m +1 ) ! cch xp. C m! cch xp cho m ngi trng tn .
Vy xc sut m ngi trng tn ng cnh nhau khi h xp hng l:
P( A)

m!(n m 1)!
n!

b. C n ngi xp thnh vng trn s c ( n-1) cch xp.

Gi B l bin c c m ngi trng tn ng cnh nhau khi h xp thnh vng
trn.
Nu coi m ngi trng tn ng cnh nhau ny l 1 ngi th khi xp n ngi
thnh vng trn ta c (n-m)! cch xp.
S kt qu thun li cho B l m!(n-m)!
Vy ta c :
P( B)

m!(n m)!
(n 1)!

Bi 1.31:
Ta c 4=4+0+0=3+1+0=2+1+1=2+2+0
a.Gi M l bin c ch A nh v 3 chn v ch B nh v 1 chn
S trng hp duy nht ng kh nng:
n=3+ C23.2!.C34+3.C24.2!+C23.C24=81

P(M)=C34/81=4/81
b.Pb=C23.2!.C34=8/27
c.Pc=3/81

Bi 1.32.
Xc sut s ngi n mi quy l nh nhau v bng 1/3
Gi A l bin c c 3 ngi n quy 1
Lc Becnulli: n=10, k=3
Vy
Bi 1.33.
Gi A l bin c chi tit ly ra thuc loi I
B l bin c chi tit ly ra thuc loi II
C l bin c chi tit ly ra thuc loi III
Ta c :
a. A+B l bin c chi tit ly ra khng thuc loi III
b. AB+C l bin c chi tit ly ra thuc loi III hoc l va thuc loi I, va
thuc loi II hoc va l loi I, loi II v loi III
c.

l bin c chi tit ly ra l chi tit loi III nhng khng thuc loi I
hoc loi II hay thuc c loi I v loi II

d. AC l bin c chi tit ly ra va thuc loi I va thuc loi III

Bi 1.34.
Gi A l bin c ngi th k bn trng bia (k=1,2,3)
Ta c:
a.
l bin c ch c ngi th nht bn trng mc tiu
l bin c ch c mt ngi bn trng

b.
mc tiu

l bin c ch c 2 ngi bn trng

c.
mc tiu
d.

l bin c c ngi bn trng mc tiu

Bi 1.35.
a) A=A1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10
b) A=A1+A2+A3+A4+A5+A6+A7+A8+A9+A10

c) A=
d) A=

5 6A7A8A9A10

1 2 3
1 2

5 6A7

8A9

10

Bi 1.36.
Gi A l bin c Sinh con gi
B l bin c sinh con c trng lng hn 3kg
Ta c: A+B = sinh con gi hoc con nng hn 3kg
A.B = Sinh con gi nng hn 3kg
Bi 1.37.
A l bin c cng ty thng thu d n th nht
B l bin c cng ty thng thu d n th hai
Tng A+B l bin c: cng ty thng thu t nht mt trong hai d n
Tch A.B l bin c: cng ty thng thu ng thi c hai d n
Bi 1.38.
Gi A1 l bin c sn phm ly ra thuc loi I
A2 l bin c sn phm ly ra thuc loi II
A l bin c sn phm ly ra thuc loi I hoc loi II th
V A1, A2 xung khc nn

Bi 1.39.
Gi A1,A2,A3 ln lt l bin c m sn phm ca nh my i qua phng kim
tra s 1,2,3 l ph phm
A l bin c sn phm nhp kho l ph phm
Ta c: P(A1)=1-0.8=0.2
P(A2)=0.1
P(A3)=0.01
V 3 phng kim tra hot ng c lp ln A1, A2, A3 l cc bin c c lp
Ta c
P(A)=P(A1.A2.A3)=P(A1).P(A2).P(A3)=0.1x0.2x0.01=0.0002
Bi 1.40.
Xc sut khi o mt i lng vt l phm sai s vt qu tiu chun cho
php l 0.4. Thc hin 3 ln o c lp. Tm xc sut sao cho c ng mt ln
o sai s vt qu tiu chun cho php.
Gii:
Gi A l bin c php o i lng vt l vt qu tiu chun cho php.
P(A) = 0,4
P( A )= 0.6
Vic thc hin cc ln o l c lp

p dng cng thc Bernoulli, xc sut A xut hin ng mt ln trong 3 php

th l:

1
2
1
3 0.4 0.6 0.432

P3 1 C

Bi 1.41:
Gi A l bin c: Hai bi ly ra cng mu trng.
B l bin c: Hai bi ly ra cng mu .
C l bin c: Hai bi ly ra cng mu xanh.
S cch chn ngu nhin mi hp 1 vin bi l P= (7 3 15).(10 6 9) = 625
cch.
Khi xc sut ly ra 2 bi cng mu t 2 hp khc nhau l:
P= P(A)+P(B)+P(C) =
Vy P =

1
1
C31 .C10
C71 .C61 C15
.C91 207

625
625

207
625

Bi 1.42:
a. Gi A l bin c: Ngi th nht bn trng mc tiu P(A) = 0,8
Gi B l bin c: Ngi th hai bn trng mc tiu P(B) = 0,9
Do ch c mt ngi bn trng mc tiu. Suy ra nu A bn trng th B ko bn
trng v ngc li
Vy xc sut mt duy nht 1 ngi bn trng mc tiu l:
P 1 = P(A).P( B ) + P( A ).P(B) = 0,8.0,1 + 0,9.0,2 = 0,26.
Vy P1 = 0,26
b. Gi P 2 l xc sut c ngi bn trng mc tiu.
C ngi bn trng mc tiu khi hoc ngi th nht bn trng, hoc ngi th
2 bn trng, hoc c 2 cng bn trng.
P2 = 0,8.0,1 + 0,9.0,2 + 0,8.0,9 = 0,98

Vy P2 = 0,98
c. Gi P 3 l xc sut c 2 cng bn trt.
C 2 ngi cng bn trt khi khng c ai bn trng.
Suy ra P3= 1 P2 =1 - 0,98 = 0,02.

Vy P3=0,02
Bi 1.43:
Gi A l bin c "sau khi gia cng xong chi tit c khuyt tt "
Ai la bin c "gy ra khuyt tt cng on th i"
P(Ai)=P i suy ra P( Ai ) =1 P i (i=1,2,k)
k

A=

Ai

i 0

P(A) = 1 - P( Ai )= 1 - ( 1-P i )k.

Bi 1.44:
Gi Ai l bin c qu bng th i l qu bng mi.
Sau khi ly k qu bng ra chi v b li hp th trong hp ch cn n-k qu bng
mi.
Ly ln lt tng qu.
Qu th nht c n cch ly nhng ch c n-k cch ly ra qu mi hay cch
khc s kt cc ng kh nng ca bin c A1 l n v s kt cc thun li l
n-k, vy P(A1) =

n-k
n

Ly qu th 2 th s kt cc ng kh nng l n-1 v s kt cc thun li l

n-k-1 nn P(A2) =

n-k-1
n-1

Tng t P(A3) =

n-k-2
n-2

P(Ak) =

n-k-k+1
n-k+1

Xc sut k qu bng ly ra chi u l mi bng tch xc sut qu th 1,

th 2, th 3, th k u l qu mi.
Hay:
P = P(A1).P(A2)P(Ak)
=

n-k n-k-1 n-k-2

n-k-k+1
.
.
.
n
n-1
n-2
n-k+1

(n-k).(n-k-1)(n-k-2)(n-2k+1)
n.(n-1)(n-2)(n-k+1)

T s bng

(n-k)!
(n-2k)!

Mu s bng

n!
(n-k)!

Vy P = [(n-k)!]2 / [n!(n-2k)!]
Bi 1.45:
a) Gi Ai l bin c ln i khng thu c tn hiu th P i = 0,6.
Bin c ngun khng nhn c thng tin l tch ca 3 bin c c lp A1, A2,
A3.
P(A) = 0,6 . 0,6 .0,6 = 0,216.
Bin c i ca A l ngun thu c thng tin c xc sut l:
Pa = 1 - P(A) = 0,784.
Vy Pa = 0,784.
b) Nu mun xc sut thu c thng tin ln 0,9 th bin c ngun khng thu
c tn hiu phi c xc sut l 0,1.
S ln phi pht l n sao cho 0,6n = 0,1 => n =log

0,6

0,1 = 4,5.

Vy phi pht t nht 5 ln.

Bi 1.46:
Gi xc sut bn trng ch ca ngi th nht l a.
Theo bi ra ta c:
0,2.a + 0,8.(1-a) = 0,38
0,6a = 0,42
a = 0,7

Vy xc sut bn trng ca ngi th nht l P = 0,7.

Bi 1.47:
a. Do ly ngu nhin 2 sn phm trong 10 sn phm v c hon li nn ta c
100 cch chn 2 sn phm.

Gi A l bin c: Sn phm ly ra ln th nht l ph phm P(A) =

C 21
0,02
100

Gi B l bin c: Sn phm ly ra ln 2 l ph phm. P(B) =

C 21
0,02
100

Xc sut 2 ln ly ra u c ph phm l P = 0,02 + 0,02 = 0,04

Vy P= 0,04
b. Do ly ra ngu nhin 2 sn phm trong 10 sn phm v khng hon li nn
ta c 10.9 = 90 cch chn sn phm.
Gi A l bin c: C 2 sn phm u l ph phm. Ta c C21 .C11 2 cch
chn ph phm.
P(A) =

2
0,022
90

Vy xc sut c 2 sn phm ly ra u l ph phm l P(A) = 0,022

Bi 1.48:
Gi A1 l bin c van 1 b hng P1 = 0,1.
A2 l bin c van 2 b hng th P2= 0,2.
Bin c ni hi hot ng mt an ton l tch ca hai bin c c lp A1 v A2
nn P = 0,1.0,2 = 0,02
Bin c ni hi hot ng an ton l P = 1 - 0,02 = 0,98.
Bi 1.49:
Gi A l bin c: Bn n vin th 6 mi trng ch.
A1 l bin c: Vin th nht bn trng ch. P(A1) = 0,2
A2 l bin c : Vin th 2 bn trng ch. P(A2) = 0,2
.....
A6 l bin c : Vin th 6 bn trng ch. P(A6) = 0,2
Theo u bi ra, bn lin tip vo mt mc tiu cho n khi vin n u tin
trng mc tiu th dng. Do bn n vin th 6 th 5 vin u phi bn
trt, vin th 6 bn trng mc tiu. Mt khc cc ln bn c lp nhau nn cc
bin c A1, A2,A3, A4, A5, A6 l cc bin c c lp. Vy xc sut bn n vin th
6 mi trng ch l:

P(A) = P( A1 ) .P( A 2 ) . P( A 3 ).P( A4 ).P( A5 ).P(A6)= 0,85.0,2=0,065536

Bi 1.50:
Gi A1 l bin c: ln th th nht khng m c ca kho
A2 l bin c: ln th th hai khng m c ca kho
A3 l bin c: ln th th ba khng m c ca kho
A4 l bin c: ln th th t m c ca kho
A l bin c: m c ca kho ln th 4
Theo u bi, th kho th ngu nhin tng cha mt, chic no c th th
khng th li. Do A1,A2, A3, A4 l bin c ph thuc.
Xt bin c A1, chm cha kha c 9 cha trong ch mt cha m c, 8
cha cn li khng m c. Ln th th nht khng m c. Vy bin c A1
c xc sut: P(A1)= 8/9.
Xt bin c A2, sau khi th ln mt, cn 8 chic cha kha trong 1 chic m
c v 7 chic khng m c. Ln th th hai khng m c. Vy bin c
A2 c xc sut: P(A2/A1)=7/8.
Tng t, xt bin c A3, sau khi th ln hai, cn 7 chic cha kha trong 1
chic m c v 6 chic khng m c. Ln th th ba khng m c. Vy
bin c A3 c xc sut: P(A3/A1A2)=6/7.
Xt bin c A4, sau khi th ln ba, cn 6 chic cha kha trong 1 chic m
c v 5 chic khng m c. Ln th th t m c. Vy bin c A 4 c
xc sut: P(A4/A1A2A3)=1/6.
Vy xc sut m c ca kho ln th 4 l
P(A)=P(A1).P(A2/A1).P(A3/A1A2).P(A4/A1A2A3)=8/9.7/8.6/7.1/6=1/9
Kt lun xc sut m c ca kho ln th 4 l 1/9.

Bi 1.51: bng cch v s ven ra, ta c

15%

24%
10%

hnh
Vy xc sut chn ngu nhin 1 khch hng bit thng tin v sn phm ca
cng ty l : P=15%+10%+24%=49%

1.50.
Gi A l bin c anh ta m c kha ln th 4
Gi Ai l bin c anh ta m c kha ln th i, i = 1,n
Vy A = A1 A 2 A3 A 4
Theo nh l nhn xc sut i vi 2 bin c ph thuc ta c:
P(A) = P( A1 A2 A3 A4) = P( A1 )P( A2 / A1 )P( A 3 / A1 A 2 )P(A4 / A1
8 7 6 1 1
A2
A3 ) = . . . =
9 8 7 6 9
1.51.
Gi A l bin c khch hng nm c thng tin qua v tuyn truyn hnh, B
l bin c nm c thng tin qua i pht thanh. Gi C l bin c chn ngu
nhin 1 khch hng th ngi nm c thng tin v sn phm ca cng ty)
Theo bi ra ta c: P(A) = 0.25; P(B) = 0.34; P(AB) = 0.1
P(C) = P(A+B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(AB) = 0.25 + 0.34 - 0.1 = 0.49
1.53.
Gi A l bin c mch khng c in do bng hng. gi A 1 l bin c bng
n th nht hng; A 2 l bin c bng n th 2 hng
a. nu 2 bng n mc ni tip: mch khng c in th phi c t nht 1
bng
hng. khi A l bin c khng c bng n no hng
ta c: A = A1 . A2 => P( A ) = P( A1 . A2 ) = 0.8 . 0.9 = 0.72
P(A) = 1 - P ( A ) = 0.28
b. nu 2 bng n mc song song: mch khng c in th c 2 bng n
u
hng. khi ta c: A = A 1 A2
P(A) = P(A 1 A2) = 0.1 . 0.2 = 0.02
1.54.

Gi Ai l bin c ly c chnh phm t l i th Ai l bin c ly c

ph phm t l i, i = 1,2
a.gi A l bin c ly c 1 chnh phm
9
4
1
1
theo bi ra ta c P(A1) =
; P(A2) = ; P( A 1 ) =
; P( A2 ) =
10
5
10
5
9 1
1 4
vy P(A) = P(A1) P( A2 ) + P( A1 ) P(A2) =
. +
. = 0.26
10 5 10 5
c. gi B l bin c ly c t nht mt chnh phm th B l bin c
khng ly c chnh phm no
1 1
P( B ) = P( A 1 )P( A2 ) =
. = 0.02
10 5
Vy P(B) = 1 - P( B ) = 0.98
1.55.
Gi Ai l bin c ln th i ly ra 3 sn phm mi kim tra. (i = 1,3 ). Gi
A l
bin c sau 3 ln kim tra tt c cc sn phm u c kim tra.
A = A 1 A2 A 3
V cc bin c l ph thuc nn:
5 1
5
P(A) = P( A1 )P(A2 /A1 )P(A3 /A1 A2 ) = 1 .
.
=
21 84 1764
1.56.
Gi A i l bin c vin n th i trng ch, i = 1,n
Gi A l bin c bn n vin n c th hi vng rng khng c vin no
trt
Ta c: P(A1) = P(A 2) = = P(A n) = 0.8
P(A) = P(A 1)P(A 2)P(An) = 0.8n
Theo gi thit xc sut ca bin c A nh hn 0.4 nn ta c bt phng trnh
sau:
0.8n < 0.4
=> lg (0.8n) < lg 0.4
=> n.lg 0.8 < lg 0.4
lg0.4
=> n >
lg0.8
=> n > 4.106
Vy n 5
1.57.
Gi Ai l bin c tung ln th i c mt 6 chm, i = 1,n v A l bin c

trong n ln tung th c t nht 1 ln c mt 6

i= n

chm.Vy A = A i .
i= 1

Cc bin c Ai l khng xung khc v c lp ton phn vi nhau, do :

i= n

P(A) = 1 - P( Ai )
i= 1

V P(A1) = P(A2) = P(A3) == P(An) =

1
(xc sut mi ln tung c
6

mt 6 chm) do :
P( A1 ) = P( A2 ) =.= P( An ) =

5
6

Nn ta c:
5 n
)
6
Theo gi thit xc sut ca bin c A ln hn 0.5 do ta thu c bpt sau:
5
1 - ( )n > 0.5
6
5
=> ( )n < 0.5
6
lg0.5
=> n >
5
lg( )
6
=> n > 3.802
1.58.
Coi vic bn hng mi ni ca ngi l 1 php th th ta c 10 php th
c lp. trong mi php th ch c 2 kh nng i lp: hoc bn c hng, hoc
khng bn c hng. Xc sut bn c hng mi ni u bng 0.2. Vy bi
ton tha mn lc Bernoulli.
a. Theo cng thc Bernoulli
P 10 (2) = C210 . 0.22 . 0.88 = 0.302
b. P10 (1) + P 10 (2) + +P 10 (10) = 1 - P 10 (0) = 1- C010 . 0.20 . 0.810 = 0.8926
1.59.
Coi vic sn xut ra sn phm ca my l 1 php th th ta c 12 php th
c lp. trong mi php th ch c 2 kh nng i lp: hoc sn xut ra ph
phm hoc sn xut ra chnh phm. Xc sut my sn xut ra ph phm l
0.05. Vy bi ton tha mn lc Bernoulli.
a. Theo cng thc Bernoulli ta c:
P 12 (2) = C212 . 0.052 . 0.958 = 0.109
b. Gi A l bin c my sn xut ra c khng qu 2 ph phm, ta c:
P(A) =P 12 (0) + P 12 (1) + P 12 (2) = C012 . 0.050 . 0.9512 + C112 . 0.051 . 0.9511 +
2
C12
. 0.052 . 0.9510 = 0.9804
1.60.
Coi vic tr li cu hi l 1 php th th ta c 10 php th c lp. Trong mi
php th ch c 2 kh nng i lp: hoc tr li ng hoc tr li sai. Xc
1
sut tr li ng 1 cu hi l ( v mi cu c 5 cch tr li, trong
5
ch c 1 cch tr li ng). Vy bi ton tha mn lc Bernoulli
P(A) = 1 - (

Gi A l bin c ngi thi , ta c:

P(A) = P 10 (8) + P 10 (9) + P 10 (10)
1
4
1
4
1 10 4 0
= C810 . ( )8 . ( )2 + C910 . ( )9 . ( )1 + C10
) . ( ) = 0.000078
10 . (
5
5
5
5
5
5

Bi 1. 61:
Gi A l bin c c chung ku khi chy th A l bin c khng c chung
no ku khi chy.
Gi H i (i= 1,4 ) ln lt l bin c chung th i khng ku khi c chy
Ta c P( H i )=1-0, 95=0, 05 (i= 1,4 )
Ta c A = H 1 H 2 H 3 H 4
Bn bin c ny ging nh 4 php th c lp. Trong mi php th u
hoc xy ra bin c chung ku, hoc chung khng ku. Xc sut mi ln
chung khng ku l 0, 05. Vy n tha mn lc Bernoulli. Xc sut
c 4 chung u khng ku l
0
4
P( A )=P( H 1 H 2 H 3 H 4 )= C 44 . 0,05 . (10,05) = 6, 25. 106
Vy P(A)=1-P( A )=0, 999994

Bi 1. 62
Gi A l bin c sn phm ly ra l tt.
Gi H1 l bin c sn phm ly ra l ca my I.
Gi H2 l bin c sn phm ly ra l ca my II.
Bin c A c th xy ra vi 1 trong hai bin c H1, H2 to thnh 1 nhm
bin c y . Do theo cng thc xc sut y
P(A)=P(H1). P(A/H1)+P(H2). P(A/H2)=2/3. 0, 97+1/3. 0, 98=0, 9733
Bi 1. 63:
a. Gi A l bin c vin n trng ch
Gi H1 l bin c x th c ly l x th loi I th P(H1)= C
C

2
1

=1/5

10

H2 l bin c x th c ly l x th loi II th P(H2)=4/5

Ta c A xy ra ng thi vi 2 bin c I, II l 2 bin c lp thnh mt nhm
bin c y nn theo cng thc xc sut y ta c:
P(A)= P(H1). P(A/H1)+P(H2). P(A/H2)=1/5. 0, 9+4/5. 0, 8=0, 82
b. Gi G1 l bin c ngi th nht bn trng
G2 l bin c ngi th 2 bn trng
B l bin c c 2 ngi bn trng
Ta c P(G1)=P(G2)=0, 82 theo cu a
Ta c B=G1. G2 m 2 bin c ny c lp nn P(B)=P(G1). P(G2)=0, 82. 0,
82=0, 6724

Bi 1. 64:
Gi Hi l bin c ly dc l i (i= 1,2 )
P(H1)=P(H2)=1/2
Gi A l bin c ly c chnh phm:
P(A/H1)=1; P(A/H2)=4/5
Bin c A xy ra ng thi vi 2 bin c H1, H2 lp thnh 1 nhm bin c
y nn theo cng thc xc sut y :
P(A)=P(H1). P(A/H1)+P(H2). P(A/H2)=0, 9
Theo cng thc Bayes
P(H1/A)=

P( H1).P( A / H1)
=5/9
P( H1) P( A / H1) P( H 2) P( A / H 2)

Tng t P(H2/A)=4/9
Gi B l bin c Sn phm ly ra ln th 2 l chnh phm
B vn c th xy ra vi mt trong 2 bin c H1, H2. Do theo cng thc
xc sut y
P(B)=P(H1/A)P(B/H1A)+P(H2/A)P(B/H2A)=4/45
Bi 1. 65:
Gi A l bin c my bay ri.
Hi l bin c bn trng i pht (i= 1,3 )
Gi l bin c bn trng pht th i(i= 1,3 )
Ta c H1=G1. G 2 . G3 + G1. G2. G3 + G1 . G 2 . G3 nn P(H1)=0, 33
Tng t, P(H2)=0, 41; P(H3)=0, 14
A xy ra ng thi vi 3 bin c H1, H2, H3 l 1 nhm bin c y nn
theo cng thc xc sut y ta c :
P(A)=P(H1). P(A/H1)+P(H2). P(A/H2)+P(H3). P(A/H3)=0, 36. 0, 2+0, 41.
0, 6+0, 14. 1=0, 458
Bi 1. 66
Gi A l bin c ly ra c t nht 1 chnh phm th A l bin c ly c
ton ph phm.
Gi H1 l bin c ly c 2 sn phm ly ra u thuc l 1
H2 l bin c ly c 2 sn phm ly ra thuc l 2
H3 l bin c ly c 2 sn phm th 1 sp thuc l 1, 1 sp thuc l 2.
Ta c P(H1)= C
C

2
2
2
5

=1/10, P(H2)= C
C

2
3
2
5

.
=3/10, P(H3)= C C
C
2

1
3

=3/5

A xy ra ng thi vi 3 bin c trn v 3 bin c ny lp thnh 1 nhm bin

c y .
Ta c P( A /H1)= C
C

3
2

10

=3/45, P( A /H2)= C
C

2
2

10

=1/45, P( A /H3)= C . C

10 10

Theo cng thc xc sut y ta c

P( A )=P(H1). P( A /H1)+P(H2). P( A /H2+P(H3). P( A /H3)= 37/750

=0, 6

Vy P(A)=1-P( A )=1-37/750 0, 951

Bi 1. 67:
Gi A l bin c ly c chnh phm.
H1 l bin c thnh phn ca l th nht khng thay i
H2 l bin c l th nht mt ph phm c thay th bng mt chnh
phm.
H3 l bin c l th nht mt chnh phm c thay th bng mt ph
phm.
Ta c :
Vi H1, do thnh phn ca l 1 khng i tc l t l th nht b sang l th
2 l sn phm nh th no th sn phm b tr li s nh th.
.
C .C
Do P(H1)= C C
C .C
1

c 1
1

d 1

a b

c d 1

Vi H2, ta c l 1 lc u b ph phm, chuyn 1 ph phm sang l 2 th l

2 c c+d+1 sn phm, sau t l 2 li chuyn 1 chnh phm sang l 1
1

.
P(H2)= C C
C .C
b

a b

c d 1

Vi H3, ta c lc u l 1 c a chnh phm, chuyn sang l 2 mt ph

phm th l 2 c c+d+1 sn phm, sau t l 2 li chuyn sang l 1 mt ph
phm
1

.
P(H3)= C C
C .C
a

1
d

a b

c d 1

Ta c: P(A/H1)=

a
a 1
a 1
; P(A/H2)=
; P(A/H3)=
ab
ab
ab

Bin c A xy ra ng thi vi 3 bin c H1, H2, H3 l mt nhm bin c

y . Theo cng thc xc sut y ta c:
P(A)=P(H1). P(A/H1)+P(H2). P(A/H2)+P(H3).
P(A/H3)=

a
bc ad
+
a b (a b)2 (c d 1)

Bi 1. 68:
a. Gi A l bin c tm c mt ngi vim hng
H1 l bin c tm c ngi nghin thuc
H2 l bin c tm c ngi khng nghin thuc
Bin c A xy ra ng thi vi 2 bin c H1, H2 l 1 nhm bin c y
nn theo cng thc xc sut y ta c:
P(A)=P(H1). P(A/H1)+P(H2). P(A/H2)=0, 3. 0, 6+0, 7. 0, 4=0, 46
Khi theo cng thc Bayes:

P(H1/A)=

P( H1).P( A / H1)
=0, 3913
P( A)

b. Gi B l bin c tm c ngi khng b vim hng th P(B)=1-P(A)=10, 46=0, 54

B vn xy ra vi 2 bin c H1, H2 nn theo cng thc Bayes ta c:
P(H2/B)=

P( H1).P( B / H1)
=0, 222
P( B)

Bi 1. 69
Gi A l bin c c 2 b phn hng
H1 l bin c ch c b phn 1 v 2 b hng
H2 l bin c ch c b phn 1 v 3 b hng
H3 l bin c ch c b phn 2 v 3 b hng
Gi (i= 1,3 ) l bin c b phn th i b hng
Ta c H1=G1. G2. G3 nn P(H1)=0, 056
Tng t P(H2)=0, 036; P(H3)=0, 096
Ta c A=H1+H2+H3 m 3 bin c ny xung khc tng i mt nn
P(A)=P(H1)+P(H2)+P(H3)=0, 188
Vy xc sut 2 b phn hng l 1 v 2 l

P( H 1)
=0, 298
P( A)

Bi 1. 70
Gi G l bin c tm c bnh nhn l k s
H1 l bin c bnh nhn tnh A.
H2 l bin c bnh nhn tnh B
H3 l bin c bnh nhn tnh C
Ta c G xy ra ng thi vi 3 bin c H1, H2, H3 l 1 nhm bin c y .
Theo cng thc xc sut y ta c:
P(G)= P(H1). P(G/H1)+P(H2). P(G/H2)+P(H3). P(G/H3)
=0, 25. 0, 02+0, 35. 0, 03+0, 4. 0, 035=0, 0295
1.71,

A= ch cu c mt con c trong 3 ln cu
Hi= ngi ny ngi ch th i, i = 1,2,3
A c th xy ra ng thi vi 1 trong 3 bin c v to nn mt nhm cc
bin c y . Theo cng thc Bayes ta c:

P( H1 / A)

P( H1 ).P( A / H1 )
3

P( H ).P( A / H )
i 1

Trong :
P(H1) = P(H2) = P(H3) = 1/3
P(A/H1) = 0,6.0,42 = 0,096

P(A/H2) = 0,7.0,32 = 0,063

P(A/H3) = 0,8.0,22 = 0,032
Do , ta c:
0,096
96
P( H 1 / A)

0,5026
0,096 0,063 0,032 191
p n: 0,5026
1.72,
Xc sut ca bin c A l 0,7. iu c ngha l t s gia kt cc thun
li cho A v tng s cc kt cc duy nht ng kh nng c th xy ra khi thc
hin php th l 0,7
1.73,
A = c mt hp no c 1 ph phm
Gi s 3 hp ny phn bit vi nhau
S kt cc duy nht ng kh nng c th xy ra khi xp 30 sn phm vo
10

10

10

3 chic hp sao cho mi hp c 10 sn phm l: C30 .C20 .C10

Xt bin c A = c 3 ph phm u nm trong mt hp
+ Nu c 3 ph phm u nm trong hp 1.
7

10

10

S kt cc thun li l C 27 .C 20 .C10
+ Vi trng hp c 3 ph phm cng nm trong hp 2, hoc 3 u
chung mt kt qu nh trn
Vy, s kt cc thun li cho bin c A l:
Do ,

7
10
10
3.C27
.C20
.C10

7
3.C 27
P( A ) 10
C30

Suy ra,
7
3.C 27
P( A) 1 P( A ) 1 10 0,91133
C30

1.74,
a, A= Mi ngi khch x ng i giy ca mnh
S kt cc thun li ng kh nng l : (N!) 2
(Do c N i giy, v s cch i N i giy y cho chn tri hay chn phi
ca N ngi l N!)
S kt cc thun li l: 1
Do :

P( A)

1
( N !) 2

b, B= Mi ngi khch x ng hai chic giy ca mt i giy no

S kt cc thun li ng kh nng l : (N!) 2
S kt cc thun li l N!
Do :

P( B)
1.75,

N!
1

( N !) 2 N !

A= Sn phm sn xut ra l chnh phm

B= Sn phm sn xut ra l ph phm
H1= Sn phm c thit b kt lun l chnh phm
H2= Sn phm c thit b kt lun l ph phm
Ta c:
P(A) = 0,95
P(B) = 0,05
P(H1/A) = 0,04
P(H2/B) = 0,01
a, X = Sn phm c kt lun l chnh phm nhng thc ra l ph
phm
Ta c: X = BH1
P(X) = P(B). P(H1/B) = 0,05.0,01 = 0,0005
Vy: T l sn phm b kt lun l chnh phm nhng thc t l ph phm
l 0,05%
b, Y= Sn phm c kt lun l ph phm nhng thc ra l chnh
phm
Ta c: Y =AH2
P(Y) = P(A).P(H2/A) = 0,95.0,04 = 0,038
Vy: T l sn phm c kt lun l ph phm nhng thc ra l chnh
phm l 3,8%
c, T l sn phm b thit b kim tra kt lun nhm l: 3,85%

1.76,
a, A= Ly c nam sinh vin

P( A)

400 800
0,6
2000

b, B= Ly c sinh vin hc kinh t

P( B)

400 500
0,45
2000

c, C= Ly c hoc nam sinh vin, hoc hc kinh t

P(C ) P( A B) P( A) P( B) P( AB ) P( A) P( B) P( A).P( B / A) 0,6 0,45 0,6.

d, D= Ly c nam sinh vin v hc kinh t

D = AB

P( D) P( AB ) P( A).P( B / A) 0,6.

400
0,85
400 800

400
0,2
400 800

e, E= Ly c l sinh vin kinh t khi ngi l nam sinh vin

P( E ) P( B / A)

400
1

400 800 3

1.77,
a, Trc khi m kin hng, xc sut kin hng l ca x nghip l:

P( A)

60
0.6
100

b, X= Sn phm ly ra l ph phm
H1 = Sn phm ca x nghip A
H2 = Sn phm ca x nghip B
Ta c:
P( H 1 / X )

P( X / H 1 ).P( H 1 )
P( X / H 1 ).P( H 1 ) P( X / H 2 ).P( H 2 )

Trong :
P(H1) = 0,6; P(H2) = 0,4
P(X/H1) = 0,3; P(X/H2) = 0,1
Do :
0,6.0,3
9
P( H 1 / X )
0,81
0,6.0,3 0,4.0,1 11
c, Y = C 2 sn phm u ra ph phm
P( H 1 / Y )

P(Y / H 1 ).P( H 1 )
P(Y / H 1 ).P( H 1 ) P(Y / H 2 ).P( H 2 )

Gi s: L hng kim tra c 10N sn phm

C32N
C N2
P(Y / H 1 ) 2 ; P(Y / H 2 ) 2
C10N
C10N
Do :

C32N
P( H 1 / Y ) 2
C3 N C N2
1.78,

X= v thng xem chng trnh th thao

Y= chng thng xem chng trnh th thao
P(X) = 0,3; P(Y) = 0,5; P(Y/X) = 0,6
a,
A = C hai cng xem chng trnh th thao
A = XY
P(A) = P(X).P(Y/X) = 0,3.0,6 = 0,18
b,
B = C t nht mt ngi thng xem
B=X+Y
P(B) = P(X+Y) = P(X) + P(Y) P(XY) = 0,3 + 0,5 0,18 = 0,62
c,
C = Khng c ai thng xem
P(C) = 1-P(B) = 0,38
d,
D = Nu chng xem th v xem cng
P ( D) P ( X / Y )

P(Y / X ).P( X ) 0,6.0,3

0,36
P(Y )
0,5

e,
E = Nu chng khng xem th v vn xem

P( E ) P( X / Y )

P(Y / X ).P( X ) 1 P(Y / X ).P( X ) (1 0,6).0,3

0,24
P(Y )
1 P(Y )
1 0,5

1.79,
Hi = Bn c hng ln th i
Ta c:
P(H1) = 0,8
P(H2/H1) = 0,9; P(H3/H2) = 0,9
P( H 2 / H1 ) 0,4; P( H 3/ H 2 ) 0,4
a, A= C 3 ln u bn c hng
P(A) = P(H1.H2.H3) = P(H1).P(H2/ H1).P(H3/ H2. H1) =
= 0,8.0,9.0,9 = 0,648
b, B = C ng 2 ln bn c hng

P( B) P( H 1 H 2 H 3 H 1 H 2 H 3 H 1 H 2 H 3 )
P( H 1 ).P( H 2 / H 1 ).P( H 3 / H 2 H 1 ) P( H 1 ).P( H 2 / H 1 ).P( H 3 / H 2 H 1 ) P( H 1 ).P( H 2 / H 1 ).P( H 3 / H 2 H 1 )
0,2.0,4.0,9 0,8.0,1.0,4 0,8.0,9.0,1 0,176

1.80,

E1 = Cp sinh i ng trng
E2 = Cp sinh i khc trng
P(E1) = P; P(E2) = 1- P
A = Cp sinh i c cng gii tnh

P( E1 / A)

P( A / E1 ).P( E1 )
1.P
2P

P( A / E1 ).P( E1 ) P( A / E2 ).P( E2 ) 1.P 1 .(1 P) P 1

2

Vy: Nu cp tr sinh i c cng gii tnh th xc sut chng l cp sinh i

cng gii tnh l:

2P
P 1

1.81.
C9 C6 C3
3

Gi A = Mt phn gm 3 cu

a.
P( A)

1
3

CCC

1
1680

b.
Gi B = Mi phn c 1 cu
Nh vy 2 cu cn li mi phn l cu xanh

P( B) C C C C C C
CCC
1

58
1680

1.82.
a.
A= H thng phun nc b hng P( A) 0,1
B= H thng bo ng b hng P( B) 0,2
C= C t nht 1 h thng hot ng bnh thng
C AB
P(C ) P( AB) 0,04

P(C ) 1 P(C ) 0,96

b.
D= C 2 h thng hot ng bnh thng
D A B , A,B khng xung khc P( D) P( A B) P( A) P( B) P( AB) 0,26
P( D) 1 0,26 0,74

1.83.
H= Chai ru ly ra thuc loi A
A= 3 ngi kt lun chai ru thuc loi A
B= 1 ngi kt lun chai ru thuc loi B
P( A / H ) C 4 .0,83.0,2 0,4096
3

P( B / H ) C 4 .0,2.0,83 0,4096
1

P( A / H ) C 4 .0,2 3.0,8 0,0256

3

P( B / H ) C 4 .0,8.0,2 3 0.0256
1

1
(0,4096) 2
P( H ) P( AB / H )
2
P( H / AB )

0,996
P( H ) P( AB / H ) P( H )P( AB / H ) 1 (0,4096) 2 1 (0,0256) 2
2
2

1.84.
a.
A= 2 mu hng cng loi
A1= 2 mu hng loi A
A2= 2 mu hng loi B

6 3
0,18
10 10
4 7
P( A2 ) 0,28
10 10
A A1 A2 , A1 , A2
P( A1 )

A1, A2 xung khc

P( A) P( A)1 P( A2 ) 0,18 0,28 0,46

b.
1.
H1= Mu ly ra hp 1
H2= Mu ly ra hp 2
B= Mu ly ra thuc loi B
P(H1)=0,45
P(H2)=0,55
P(B)=P(H1)P(B/H1)+P(H2)P(B/H2)=0,45.0,4+0,55.0,7=0,565
2.
C= Mu ly ra thuc loi A
P( H 1) P( A / H 1)
0,45.0,6
P( H 1 / A)

0,62
P( H 1) P( A / H 1) P( H 2) P( A / H 2)
0,435
P( H 2) P( A / H 2)
0,55.03
P( H 2 / A)

0,38
P( H 2) P( A / H 2) P( H 1) P( A / H 1)
0,435
Vy mu nhiu kh nng thuc H1 hn
1.85.

H1= Chic 1 ly c l ca i khng chic no hng

H2= Chic 1 ly c l ca i c mt chic hng
H3= Chic mt ly c l ca i c hai chic hng
P(H1)=.9, P(H2)=0.08,P(H3)=0.02
A= Chic mt ly ra b hng
B= Chic hai ly ra b hng
P(A)=P(H1)P(A/H1)+P(H2)(A/H2)+P(H3)P(A/H3)=0,9.0+0,08.0,5+0,02.1=0,0
6
P(B)=P(H3/A)=

P( H 3) P( A / H 3) 0,02 1

P( A)
0,06 3

Bi 1.86:
a. Gi X l bin c rt phi a b li
bin c X c th xy ra vi 1 trong 2 gi thuyt :
H1 a rt ra ca ca hng A
H2 a rt ra ca ca hng B
P(X)=P(H1).P(X/H1)+ P(H2).P(X/H2)=0,6.0,1+0,4.0,2=0.14
b.P(H1/X)=P(H1).P(X/H1)/P(X)=0,4.0,2/0,14=0,571
Bi 1.87:
a. Gi A l bin c 2 sn phm ly ra u xu
l bin c 2 sn phm ly ra c t nht 1 sn phm tt
B l bin c sn phm 1 ly ra l xu
Bin c B c th xy ra vi 1 trong 2 gi thuyt:

H1: sn phm l ca my 1
H2: sn phm l ca my 2
P(B)=P(H1).P(B/H1)+ P(H2).P(B/H2)=0,01.0,4+0,02.0,6=0,016
P(H1/B)=P(H1).P(B/H1)/P(B)=o,01.0,4/0.016=0,25
P(H2/B)=P(H2).P(B/H2)/P(B)=0,75
P(A)=P(H1/B).P(A/H1B)+ P(H2/B).P(A/H2B)=0,25.0,01+0,75.0,02=0,0175
P()=1-P(A)=0,9825
b.P(B)=1-P(B)=0,984
P(H1/B)=P(H1).P(B/H1)/ P(B)=0,4.0,99/0,984=0,402
P(H2/ B)= P(H2).P(B/H2)/ P(B)=0,598
Gi C l bin c sn phm th 2 l tt
P(C )= P(H1/B).P(C/ H1B)+ P(H2/B).P(C/ H2B)=0,402.0,99+0,598.0,98=0,98402
P(H1 B/C)= P(H1/B).P(C/ H1B)/P(C)=0,404
P(H2B/C)= P(H2B).P(C/ H2 B)/P(C)=0,596
Gi D l bin c sn phm th 3 l sn phm tt
P(D)= P(H1 B/C).P(D/ H1 BC)+ P(H2B/C).P(D/ H2BC)
=0,404.0,99+0,596.0,98=0,98404
P(H1 BC/D)= P(H1 B/C).P(D/ H1 BC)/P(D)=0,406
P(H2 BC/D)= P(H2 B/C).P(D/ H2 BC)/P(D)=0,594
Gi E l bin c sn phm th 4 cng l sn phm tt
P(E)= P(H1 BC/D).P(E/ H1 BCD) + P(H2 BC/D).P(E/ H2 BCD)
=0,406.0,99+0,594.0,98= 0,98406

Bi 1.88:
Gi A l bin c anh ta v nh sau 6 gi
Bin c A c th xy ra vi 1 trong 2 gi thuyt:
H1 : i theo ng ngm
H2 : i qua cu
P(A)=P(H1).P(A/H1)+P(H2).P(A/H2)=1/3.0,25+2/3.0,3=17/60
P(H2/A)=P(H2).P(A/H2)/P(A)=0.706
Bi 89:
Gi A l bin c trong 8 sp u tin c 2 ph phm
Hi (i=1,2,3) l bin c 8sp do ngi th I lm ra
P(Hi)=1/3
P(A/H1)= P(A/H2)= C68.0,96.0,12
P(A/H3)= C68.0,86.0,22
P(A)=P(H1).P(A/H1)+ P(H2).P(A/H2)+ P(H3).P(A/H3)=0,2
P(H1/A)= P(H1).P(A/H1)/P(A)= 0,25
P(H2/A)= P(H2).P(A/H2)/P(A)=0,25
P(H3/A)= P(H3).P(A/H3)/P(A)=0,5
Gi B l bin c trong 8 sp sau c 6 chnh phm
P(B)= P(H1/A).P(B/ H1A)+ P(H2/A).P(B/ H2A)+ P(H3/A).P(B/ H3A)=0,23

Bi 90:
Gi A l bin c ly c 3 chnh phm v 1 ph phm
B l bin c ly c 2 ph phm v mt chnh phm
Hi l bin c trong 8 sp c i chnh phm
P(A)= P(H3).P(A/H3) + P(H4).P(A/H4)+ P(H5).P(A/H5)+ P(H6).P(A/H6
)+ P(H7).P(A/H7)
=1/9.(1.5/C48+ C34.4/C48+ C35.3/ C48 + C36.2/ C48+ C37.1/ C48 )
=0,2
B xy ra khi i=4,5
P(H4/A)= P(H4).P(A/H4)/P(A)=0,127
P(H5/A)= P(H5).P(A/H5)/P(A)=0.238
P(B)= P(H4/A).P(B/ H4A)+ P(H5/A).P(B/ H5A)
=0,127.C23/C34 + 0,238.C12/ C34=0,214
1.91
Gi A l bin c ly c sn phm tt
Hi l bin c lc ban u hp c i sn phm tt i 0, n
P( Hi)

i
n

P( A \ Hi)

i 1
n 1

V b vo hp c n sn phm 1 sn phm ri sau ly ngu nhin ra 1

sn phm nn p dng cng thc xc sut y , ta c:
n

P( A) P( Hi) P( A \ Hi)
i 0

Ta c P( A)
p s:

n2
2(n 1)

n2
2(n 1)

Bi 1.92
Gi A l bin c k sn phm ly ra u l chnh phm.
Hi ln lt l bin c trong hp c i chnh phm, vi i=1,2,6.
Theo cng thc Bayes th:
P(Hi/A) =

P(Hi).P(A/Hi)
P(A)

V ta ly ngu nhin ln lt k sn phm theo phng thc c hon li nn tng

s kt cc ng kh nng xy ra ng bng s chnh hp lp chp k ca n, tc l
bng nk.
Mt khc, nu hp cha i chnh phm, th c C in cch xy ra ( c C in cch
chn i sn phm trong n sn phm), vi mi cch nh th, s cch ly c k
chnh phm trong s i chnh phm theo phng thc c hon li l i k.
i k
Vy P(Hi).P(A/Hi) = Cn.ik
n
n k
P(Hn/A) = Cn.n
=1.
nk

P(A) = P(H1).P(A/H1) + P(H2).P(A/H2) ++P(Hn).P(A/Hn)

1 k
2 k
C
.1
C
n
= k + n.2
n
nk

=( n +

+.+

Cnn.nk
nk

n(n-1) k
n(n-1)(n-2) k
2 +
3 ++ nk) / nk
2!
3!

Vy, P(Hn/A) =

nk
n(n-1) k n(n-1)(n-2) k
n+
2+
3 ++nk
2!
3!

Bi 1.93
Gi T l bin c A thng trung cuc trong 2 vn d hn thng trung
cuc trong 4 vn
* Gi C l bin c A thng B chung cuc trong 2 vn
P(C ) 1 P(C )
P(C ) l xc sut xy ra bin c A thua B chung cuc trong 2 vn

Gi D l bin c A thua B mt vn
P( D) 1 P
Mun A thua B chung cuc trong 2 vn th A phi thua c 2 vn nn
P(C ) 1 P

P(C) 1 P(C ) 1 (1 P)2 2P P2

* Gi E l bin c A thng B chung cuc trong 4 vn
P( E ) 1 P( E )
P(E ) l xc sut xy ra bin c A thua B chung cuc 4 vn

+ TH1 gi F l bin c A thua B 4 vn

P( F ) (1 P)4
+ TH2: Gi G l bin c A thua B 3 vn
P(G) 4P(1 P)3
Ta c: P( E) P( F ) P(G) (1 P)4 4P(1 P)3
P( E) 1 (1 P) 4 (1 P)3 .4P 6P 2 8P3 3P 4
Vy P(T) phi tha mn 2P P2 6P2 8P3 3P4
P(T )

2
3

p s P(T )

2
3

Bi 1.94
Gi A l bin c sn phm th nht l ph phm
B l bin c sn phm th 2 l ph phm.
Vy bin c trong 2 sn phm mua c 1 sn phm ph phm l bin c tng
A. B + A .B
y l 2 nhm bin c xung khc nn xc sut tng bng tng cc xc sut
Gi H1, H2 l bin c sn phm mua thuc day chuyn s 1, s 2.
Ta tnh P(A. B )trc.
P (H1) = P(H2) = 0,5
P(A) = 0,5.0,2 +0,5.0,03 = 0,025
Sau khi A xy ra th cc xc sut ca H 1, H2 thay i theo cng thc Bayes
nh sau:
P(H1/A) =

0,5.0,02 2
=
0,025
5

P(H2/A) =

0,5.0,03 3
=
0,025
5

P( B /A ) =

2
3
.0,98 + .0,97 = 0,974
5
5

Vy P(A, B ) = 0,025.0,0974 = 0,02435.

Tnh P( A , B)

Tng t, P( A ) = 0,5.0,98 + 0,5.0,97 = 0,975

P(H1/ A ) =

0,5.0,98 98
=
0,975
195

P(H2/ A ) =

0,5.0,97
97
=
0,975
195

P(B/ A ) = 0,02.

98
97
487
+ 0,03.
=
195
195 19500

Vy P( A , B) = 0,975.

487
= 0,02435
19500

Vy P = 0,02435 + 0,02435 =0,0487

Bi 1.95
a) s ln nm trng ca ngi th nht cao hn ngi th 2 th cc t s c th
xy ra l 2-0, 1-0, 2-1.,
Cc bin c trn xung khc tng i.
Xc sut xy ra t s 2-0 l: 0,6.0,6.0,3.0,3 =0,0324
Xc sut xy ra t s 2-1 l: 0,6.0,6.0,7.0,3 .2 =0,1512
Xc sut xy ra t s 1-0 l: 0,6.0,4.0,3.0,3 .2 =0,0432
Vy Pa = 0,0324 + 0,1512 + 0,0432 = 0,2268
b) s ln nm trng ca 2 ngi l bng nhau th c th xy ra c t s sau: 00, 1-1, 2-2
tng t ta c
Pb = 0,4.0,4.0,3.0,3 +2.0,4.0,6.2,0,3.0,7 + 0,6.0,6.0,7.0,7 = 0,3924
Bi 1.96
gi s ln rt th i ngi 1 rt c qu trng.
ln 1:

P= a/(a+b)

ln 2:

P= b/(a+b). b/(a+b). a/(a+b) = [ b/(a+b)]^2 .a/(a+b)

ln 3:

P= [ b/(a+b)^4 . a/(a+b)

p l xc xut ngi th nht rt c qu trng trc

P= a/(a+b) + [b/(a+b)] ^2 . a/(a+b)

a/(a+b) +............
P= a/(a+b) . { [ 1 + [b/(a+b)]^2
t

+ [ b/(a+b)] ^4 .

[b /(a+b)]^4...........}

[b/(a+b)]^2 = X

ta c ( [ 1 + [b/(a+b)]^2

[b /(a+b)]^4...........} )

= 1 + X + X^2 + X^3 +............. = 1/(1-X)

(dy cp s nhn li v hn: co so la X < 1) =

P= a/(a+b) . 1/ (1 - X) = (a+b) / (a+2b)

1.95
Co cac truong hop xay ra la:
Goi x la so lan nem trung ro cua nguoi 1, y la so lan nem trung ro cua nguoi 2.
a. co cac truong hop thoa man la:
(2,1);(2,0);(1,0)( cac truong hop nay la xung khac), xac suat nem trung cua
nguoi 1 va nguoi 2 la hoan toan doc lap.
Theo becnuli va quy tac nhan:
P(a)= c 22 (0.6)^2* c12 0.7*0.3+ c12 0.6*0.4*0,3^2+0,6^2*0,3^2=0,2268
b. tuong tu co cac cap thoa man la`
(2,2),(1,1),(0,0)
P(B)=0,6^2.0,7^2+ c12 .0,6.0,4. c12 .0,7.0,3+0,4^2.0,3^2=0,3924
1.97
Xac suat de m nguoi ngoi dung cho:
P(A)=1/m!
Xax suat de m nguoi ngoi sai cho:
2

P(B)=[(n-m)!-( c nm .(n-m-1)!-( c n m . (n-m-2)!-.. ( c nm .(n-m-k)!-..1)))]/(n-m)!

1

(1) ^ k
k!
k 0

nm

=1-1/1!+1/2!-1/3!+.+(-1)^(m-n)/m(m-n)!=
Vay xac suat cua bai toan la`:
(1) ^ k
k!
k 0

nm

P(A).P(B)= 1/m!.

1.98: sgk
1.99
hai nguoi nay choi toi da la m+n-1 van thi moi biet duoc minh thang hay thua.
Xet cac truong hop thang cho nguoi thu nhat:
Ta phan thanh cac truong hop nguoi do phai danh lan luot la :
m, m+1, m+2,.,m+n-1 tran moi biet minh thang( so thu tu cau van thang cuoi
cung lan luot la m, m+1, m+2,.,m+n-1). Cac truong hop nay lan luot xung
khac.
Ap dung becnuli
P(m)=(1/2)^m
P(m+1)= c mm1 .(1/2)^(m-1).1/2.1/2=1/2. c1m .(1/2)^m
P(m+2)= c mm11 .(1/2)^(m-1).(1/2)^2.1/2=1/2^2. c m 1 .(1/2)^m
2

P(m+n-1)= c mm1n2 .(1/2)^(m-1).(1/2)^(n-1).1/2=(1/2)^n. c nm n2 .(1/2)^(n-1)

Nen xac suat nguoi thu nhat:
P(1)= (1/2)^m(1+1/2. c1m +1/2^2. c 2m 1 +.+ (1/2)^(n-1). c nm n2 )
Hoan toan tuong tu cho nguoi thu 2. ti le chia tien la p(1)/p(2)
1.100
Goi A la bien co khong boc trung r lan o bao 2.
Do lan cuoi cung boc trung bao khong( khong mat tinh tong quat gia su la bao 1)
Nen so lan boc phai la: 2n-r+1
Xac suat boc trung 1 trong 2 bao la .
Theo becnuli: de trong bao diem kia con lai r que thi xac suat phai la:
r
r
c 2nr 1 .(1/2)^r.(1/2)^(2n-2r+1)= c 2nr 1 .(1/2)^(2n-2r+1)
dpcm

Bi 1.91)
Gi A = ly c sn phm tt
Hi l bin c lc u hp c I sng phm tt ( i = 0, n )
P(H0) = P(H1) = = P(Hn) =
P(A/H0) =

C11
1
=
1
n 1
C n 1

P(A/H1) =

2
C21
=
1
C n 1
n 1

1
n 1

P(A/Hn) =

n 1
Cn1 1
=
1
C n 1
n 1

Do A c th xy ra vi 1 trong cc bin c H i v to thnh 1 nhm cc bin c

y nn:
P(A) = P(H0).P(A/H0) + P(H1).P(A/H1) + + P(Hn).P(A/Hn)
1
1
1
2
1 n 1
.
+
.
+ +
.
n 1 n 1
n 1 n 1
n 1 n 1
1
(n 2)(n 1)
=
.
2
(n 1)
2
n2
=
2(n 1)

1.93
TH1) H1 = A thng chung cuc trong 2 vn
P(H1) = C 12 . p(1-p) + C 22 .p2 = 2p(1-p) + p2

TH2) H2 = A thng chung cuc trong 4 vn

P(H2) = C 24 .p2(1-p) 2 + C 34 .p3(1-p) + C 44 .p4
= 6p2(1-p)2 + 4p2(1-p) +p4
A thng chung cuc trong 2 vn d hn trong 4 vn
P(H1) > P(H2)
2p(1-p) + p2 > 6p2(1-p)2 + 4p3(1-p) + p4 ( 0<p 1 )
2(1-p) + p > 6p(1-p)2 +4p2(1-p) + p3
2
3

(p-1)2(p- ) < 0
p 2 0

p 13

2
p0
3

Vy A thng chung cuc trong 2 vn d hn trong 4 vn th

2
p0
3

1.94)
Gi H1 = sn phm l sn phm ca dy chuyn 1
H2 = sn phm l sn phm ca dy chuyn 2
A = khch hang mua phi 1 ph phm
B = khch hang mua c 1 chnh phm
P(A/H1) = 0,02 ; P(A/H2) = 0,03
P(B/H1) = 0,98 ; P(B/H2) = 0,97
P(AB) = P(A/H1). P(B/H1) + P(A/H1). P(B/H2) + P(A/H2). P(B/H1) + P(A/H2).
P(B/H2)
= 0,02.0,98 + 0,02.0,97 + 0,03.0,97 + 0,03.0,98
= 0,0975
Khi ch n th x c su t ch n c m t trong 2 day chuyen la nen ket qua cu
i c ng c a b i to n l 0.024375
???????

1.94
Mua c 2 DC1 ko l ph phm x 98% x 98%
Mua c 2 DC2 ko l ph phm x 97% x 97%
Mua 1 DC 2 1 DC 1 ko l ph phm x 98% x 97%
Ly 1- i hy vng ng =))

Bi 1.97: Trong rp c n ch c nh s , n ngi c v vo ngi mt cch

ngu nhin. Tm xc sut c m ngi ngi ng ch.
Yu cu bi ton l tm xc sut m ngi ngi ng ch v (n- m) ngi cn
li ngi sai ch.
A= m ngi ngi ng ch.
S trng hp ng kh nng c th xy ra khi xp m ngi vo n v tr l Amn .
S trng hp thun li cho bin c A l mA=
m

Vy P(A) =

C
A

n
m

m
n

1
m!

B= n- m ngi cn li ngi sai ch.

C= C t nht 1 ngi trong n- m ngi cn li ngi ng ch n- m v tr cn
li.
Ta c P(B)= P(C)
Ai= Ngi th i ngi ng ch. Vi i= 1, n m .
P(Ai)=

1
v C=
nm

nm

i 1

V cc bin c Ai khng xung khc vi nhau nn

P(C)= P Ai - P( Ai A j ) + ... + (-1)n-1P(A1A2...An-m)
i j

C n-m ch nn

P A =(n-m). n m =1
1

V Ai, Aj l cc bin c c iu kin nn

1
1
n m n m 1
1
1
1
2
P( Ai A j ) = C n m .
.

n m n m 1 2!
i j
1
Tng t P(A1A2...An-m)=
(n m)!
nm
nm
nm
1 1
1
1
P(C)= 1- ... (1) .
= (1) .
2! 3!
(n m)! i 1
(n m)!

P(AiAj)= P(Ai)P(Aj/Ai)=

nm

P(B)=1-P(C) = 1-

(1)
i 1

n m (1)
1
.
=
(n m)! h 0 h!

nm

Theo nh l nhn xc sut, v A, B c lp

1 n m (1)
P(AB)= P(A)P(B)=

m! h 0 h!

Bi 1.98: Mt h thng k thut gm n b phn vi xc sut hot ng tt ca

mi b phn l p. H thng s ngng hot ng khi c t nht mt b phn b
hng. nng cao tin cy ca h thng ngi ta d tr thm n b phn na
theo 2 phng thc( hnh v SBT/T37)

Hi phng thc d tr no em li tin cy cao hn cho h thng?

tin cy ca h thng d tr theo phng thc a:
Pa = [1- (1-p)2]n = pn(2-p)n
(V: (1-p)2 l xc sut c 2 b phn cng mt nhm b hng, khi h thng b
hng)
tin cy ca h thng d tr theo phng thc b:
Pb = 1- (1-pn) 2 = pn(2-pn)
(V (1-pn)2 l xc sut m trong c hai nhnh, mi nhnh u c 1 b phn b
hng)
Ta cn chng minh: Pa>Pb hay (2-p)n > (2-pn) (2-p)n + pn > 2
t q = 1-p ta c: (1+q)n + (1-q)n >2 (ng theo khai trin nh thc Newton)
Vy: phng thc d tr a mang li tin cy cao hn cho h thng.
Bi 1.99: Bi ny nhm em cha lm c .
Bi 1.100: Mt ngi b 2 bao dim vo ti, mi bao c n que dim. Mi khi
ht thuc ngi rt ngu nhin mt bao v nh mt que. Tm xc sut khi
ngi pht hin mt bao ht dim th bao kia cn li ng r que dim.
Ngi pht hin mt bao ht v bao cn li r que dim nn ngi
ly dim 2n-r+1 ln ( v 1 ln l pht hin 1 bao ht nn ko ly c dim!)
S cc trng hp ng kh nng l : 22n-r+1 (v c 2 bao nn mi ln rt dim c
2 kh nng)
c 1 bao cn li r que dim nn trong 2n-r+1 ln ly dim phi c r ln khng
ly phi bao . S trng hp r ln ly ko vo bao : C 2rnr 1
Vy xc sut khi ngi pht hin mt bao ht dim v bao kia cn li
ng r que dim l :
P=

C 2rn r 1
2 2 n r 1