I HC QUC GIA THNH PH H CH MINH

TRNG I HC CNG NGH THNG TIN

CHNG TRNH O TO THC S CNTT KHNG TP TRUNG KT HP MNG TH-VT

SEMINAR MN HC CNG NGH TRI THC

TN TI : GII THIU MT S THUT TON GOM CM M. NG DNG THUT TON GOM CM M (FUZZY CLUSTERING), M HNH XICH MARKOV PHN LOI, D BO, GII QUYT CC TNH TRNG KT XE

GING VIN: GS.TSKH. HONG KIM SINH VIN THC HIN: L THNH ( CH0601069 )

KHA: 3

Tp. H Ch Minh 09/2008

MC LC.........................................................................................................1 1. T VN CC BI TON KHO ST.............................................. 2 1.1 Bi ton phn loi kt xe..............................................................3 1.1.1 Vn bi ton.......................................................................4 1.1.2 Cc i lng nh hng n trng thi ca lung giao thng......5 1.1.3 L thuyt v lung giao thng................................................6 1.2 Bi ton d bo kt xe..................................................................7 1.2.1 Vn bi ton.......................................................................8 1.2.2 Mt s hng gii quyt.........................................................9
2. CC KHI NIM, L THUYT C S LIN QUAN, PHNG PHP

GII QUYT CC BI TON.................................................................10 2.1 K thut gom cm d liu ( Clustering )....................................11 2.1.1 Gom cm l g ?....................................................................12 2.1.2 Cc thut ton gom cm.......................................................13 2.1.2.1 Thut ton K-Means...........................................................14 2.1.2.2 Thut ton K-Medoids........................................................15 2.1.2.3 Thut ton ISODATA.......................................................16 2.1.2.4 Thut ton Phn cp........................................................17 2.1.2.5 Thut ton da trn m hnh...........................................18 2.1.2.6 Thut ton da trn li..................................................19 2.1.2.7 Thut ton DBSCAN........................................................20 2.1.2.8 Cc thut ton gom cm m...........................................21 2.2 Cc m hnh gom cm m (Fuzzy clustering models)................22 2.2.1 M hnh Fuzzy C-Mean(FCM)..........................................23 2.2.2 M hnh Fuzzy C-Elliptotype (FCE)..................................24 2.2.3 M hnh Fuzzy C-Mixed Prototype (FCMP).....................25 2.2.4 M hnh Fuzzy Clustering Fuzzy Merging (FCFM).........26 2.3 Cc h thng m (Fuzzy system)................................................27 2.4 Cch to mt h thng iu khin m........................................28 2.5 C s l thuyt ca Xch Markov......................................................29
3. NG DNG CC K THUT GII QUYT BI TON T RA.. 30

ng dng cc thut ton gom cm m, Xich MarKov phn loi v d bo kt xe

3.1 ng dng m hnh Xch Markov d bo tnh trng giao thng......31 3.1.1 Bi ton 1...........................................................................32 3.1.2 Bi ton 2...........................................................................33 3.1.3 Bi ton 3...........................................................................34 3.2 ng dng m hnh gom cm FCMP (Fuzzy C-Mixed Prototype) phn lp giao thng...........................................................................35 3.2.1 Vn bi ton...................................................................36 3.2.2 Hng gii quyt bi ton..................................................37 4. KT LUN, HNG PHT TRIN........................................................38
5. TI LIU THAM KHO...........................................................................39

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1. T VN CC BI TON KHO ST 1.1 BI TON PHN LOI KT XE 1.1.1 VN BI TON Mc tiu ca bi ton l phn lp d liu c trng ca lung giao thng trong mt thi im ti mt h thng o t c thit lp ti mt s v tr no trn ng nh : ti cc giao l. Thng thng ngi ta phn loi trng thi ca lung giao thng thnh 4 loi : Trng thi tha v bnh thng: giao thng n nh, nhng ngi iu khin xe khng b nh hng bi cc xe khc. Trng thi hi ng: giao thng bnh thng, nhng vic li xe b nh hng nng bi cc phng tn giao thng khc. Trng thi ng: trng thi khng n nh, c th dn n kt xe. Trng thi kt xe: h thng giao thng b qu ti, cc xe khng th lu thng hoc lu thng chm. Da trn s phn loi trng thi ca lung giao thng chng ta s s dng k thut g phn lp d liu giao thng ? 1.1.2 CC I LNG NH HNG N TRNG THI CA LUNG GIAO THNG Lu lng xe (q): l s lng xe i qua mt im no (cc giao l) trong mt khong thi gian t. Mt (k): s lng xe trn mt on ng c chiu di xc nh. Vn tc (v): vn tc trung bnh ca xe khi i qua im quan st trong mt khong thi gian t. Mc ch ca ta l xc nh trng thi ca lung giao thng ti giao l da trn cc i lng q, k, v. 1.1.3 L THUYT V LUNG GIAO THNG Cc i lng lin quan n lung giao thng: Lu lng xe (q): l s lng xe i qua mt im no (cc ng t) trong mt khon thi gian t. Mt (k): s lng xe trn mt on ng c chiu di xc
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nh. Vn tc (v): vn tc trung bnh ca khi i qua im quan st trong mt khong thi gian t. Vn tc v l i lng ph thuc vo k, v= v(k) bi v m bo an ton giao thng cc phng tin giao thng cn phi gim tc trong trng hp ng ang ri vo trng thi hi ng, phng trnh q=v*k c s dng trong trng hp trng thi tha hoc bnh thng. th lin h gia q v k c gi l biu c s (Fundamental diagram). Trong biu hnh bn, nhng im nm gn vi cc ng thng cho bit trng thi tha tng ng vi mt giao thng l thp, trong trng hp mt cao (k ln ) th ch c ri rc mt vi im trn biu ch ra rng trng thi giao thng l ng. Ngi ta nh ngha 4 khong vn tc phn loi tng ng cho 4 trng thi giao thng : tha, hi ng, ng v kt xe. Mc hiu qu ca vic phn lp ph thuc vo vic nh ngha cc khong vn tc hp l. S d chn i lng vn tc phn loi l v vn tc ca cc phng tin giao thng b nh hng trc tip t trng thi ca lung giao thng, ngha l vn tc ca cc phng tin giao thng trong trng thi ng s nh hn nhiu so vi vn tc ca phng tin ny trong trng thi tha. Vn t ra l lm th no phn loi c trng thi ca lung giao thng da vo i lng vn tc trung bnh ca phng tin giao thng ? S dng phng php gom cm m (Fuzzy clustering), c th l thut ton Fuzzy C-mixed gii quyt bi ton ny. Thut ton Fuzzy Clustering s c trnh by chi tit trong phn phng php gii quyt cc bi ton. 1.2 BI TON D BO KT XE

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1.2.1 VN BI TON D bo lu lng xe xy ra ti mt a im no trong khong thi gian t. Trn cc ng ph hay xa l, ngi ta s gn cc thit b o t tnh ton s lng xe i qua trong khong thi gian 15 pht. Vi qui nh nh vy trong mt ngy chng ta s c tng cng 24 x 4 = 96 thi im xc nh s lng xe ti a im X.

V d: S lng xe ti ng t ng Cch Mng Thng Tm v Phm Vn hai ti cc thi im trong ngy th 6 c cho trong bng sau: o o o o o o o 0h00 : 0h15: 0h30: 0h45: 1h00 : 1h15 : .. :

Vi cc gi tr trong bng ny ta s xy dng c biu biu din s lng xe. Vn t ra l lm th no h thng d bo c th tnh ton c gi tr ca 96 thi im trong ngy da vo cc nhn t nh hng n n. 1.2.2 MT S HNG GII QUYT S dng mt s phng php gom cm m gii quyt bi ton ny. V d nh: FCM - Fuzzy C-mean FCE - Fuzzy C-Ellipse FCMP - Fuzzy C-Mixed Prototype

S dng c s l thuyt Xch Markov.

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2. CC KHI NIM, L THUYT C S LIN QUAN, PHNG PHP GII QUYT CC BI TON 2.1 K THUT GOM CM D LIU (CLUSTERING)

Gom cm d liu l phng php phn hoch tp hp d liu thnh nhiu tp con C sao cho mi tp con c C cha cc phn t c nhng tnh cht ging nhau theo tiu chun no , mi tp con c c gi l mt cm.

Nh vy qu trnh gom cm l mt qu trnh phn cc phn t q Q vo trong cc cm c C.

Nguyn l thng c dng gom cm d liu l nguyn tc cc tiu khong cch (thng l khong cch Euclide).

Cc k thut gom cm d liu: - Gom cm c in:

Thut ton K-Means. Thut ton K-Medoids. Thut ton ISODATA.

- Gom cm m:

Thut ton Fuzzy C-Mean. Thut ton Fuzzy C-Ellipse. Thut ton Fuzzy C-Mixed.

2.1.1 GOM CM L G ? Gom cm l mt tin trnh gom nhm cc vector c trng vo trong cc cm. Gom cc i tng d liu tng t vi mt i tng khc trong cng cm. Gom cc i tng d liu khng tng t vi cc i tng trong cm khc. Mc tiu ca gom cm : gom tp cc i tng thnh cc

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nhm. Gom cm d liu l hnh thc hc khng gim st trong cc mu hc cha c gn nhn. Cc im d liu trong cc cm khc nhau c tng t thp hn cc im nm trong cng mt cm. Mt s ng dng tiu biu ca gom cm nh: - Xem xt phn b d liu. - Tin x l cho cc thut ton khc. - Khm ph thi quen v nhu cu ca khch hng c phng php tip th thch hp. - Phn loi t theo cng nng hoc thc t s dng c chnh sch quy hoch ph hp. - Phn loi nh theo v tr, gi tr... - Phn loi khch hng c chnh sch bo him hp l. - Phn loi bnh nhn. Mt s phng php gom cm tt nu t c tnh cht sau: - C tng t cao trong cng cm. - C tng t thp gia cc cm. - C kh nng pht hin cc mu n. - C kh nng lm vic hiu qu vi lng d liu ln. - C kh nng lm vic vi nhiu loi d liu khc nhau. - C kh nng khm ph ra cc cm c phn b theo cc dng khc nhau. - Yu cu ti thiu tri thc lnh vc nhm xc nh cc tham bin nhp. - C kh nng lm vic vi nhiu v mu c bit. - Khng b nh hng bi th t nhp ca d liu. - Lm vic tt trn c s d liu c s chiu cao. - Chp nhn cc rng buc do ngi dng ch nh. - C th hiu v s dng c kt qu gom cm.

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Da trn cch tip cn v thut ton s dng, ngi ta phn cc thut ton gom cm theo cc phng php chnh sau: - Cc phng php phn hoch. - Cc phng php phn cp. - Cc phng php da trn mt . - Cc phng php da trn m hnh. - Cc phng php da trn li. C th dng ma trn d liu m hnh ho bi ton gom cm. Ma trn biu din khng gian d liu gm n i tng theo p thuc tnh. Ma trn ny biu din mi quan h i tng theo thuc tnh. 2.1.2 CC THUT TON GOM CM 2.1.2.1 THUT TON K-MEANS
Gii thiu:

Mt phng php tip cn phn hoch l xc nh trc s cm cn c, chng hn l k, sau xp tng im d liu vo mt trong k cm sao cho phn bit trong cc cm l thp nht. Vn t ra l vi mt khng gian d liu c s chiu v s phn t ln th thi gian thc hin tng rt nhanh theo lut bng n t hp. Vi k cho trc c th c (kn-(k-1)n-...-1) kh nng phn hoch khc nhau. y l con s qu ln nu n l kh ln do hu nh khng th thc hin c. V vy gom cm phn hoch phi l nhng thut ton nhanh v c s dng heuristic t c gii php gom cm tt (nhng khng nht thit l ti u). Trong thut ton ny, cc i tng (mu hun luyn hay mu cn phn lp) thng c nh x vo khng gian n chiu Rn . Nh vy, mt mu x bt k c
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m t bng 1 vector (a1(x), a2(x), an(x)), trong , ar(x) l gi tr ca thuc tnh th r ca i tng x. Nhng i tng ln cn nht ca mt i tng c xc nh da trn mt o khong cch c chn no (thng l o khong cch Euclide).

T tng ca thut ton K-means: tng chnh ca thut ton ny l p dng nguyn l ngi lng ging gn nht hoc khong cch ngn nht theo nh lut III Newton, ngha l phn t no gn im tm ca cm ci hn so vi cc cm cj s c gom v cm ci. u vo ca thut ton K-Means: S cc cm k, v CSDL c n s im (i tng) trong khng gian d liu. Thut ton K-Means gm 4 bc: Bc 1: Phn hoch i tng thnh k tp con/cm. Bc 2: Tnh cc im ht ging centroid (trung bnh ca cc i tng trong cm) cho tng cm trong phn hoch hin hnh. Bc 3: Gn mi i tng cho cm c centroid gn nht. Bc 4: Quay v bc 2, chm dt khi khng cn php gn mi.

u v nhc im ca thut ton K-Means: u im: y l mt phng php: - n gin. - Hiu qu. - T t chc. - c s dng trong tin trnh khi to trong nhiu thut ton khc. - C th scalable trong khi x l d liu ln.

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- Hiu sut tng i:O(tkn), vi n l s i tng , k l s cm, t l s ln lp. Thng thng k,t << n. - Thng kt thc ti u cc b, c th tm c ti u ton cc, dng k thut thut gii di truyn. Nhc im: Cc nhc im trong thut ton ny l: - S cm k phi c xc nh trc. - C th p dng ch khi xc nh c tr trung bnh. - Khng th x l nhiu v outliers. - Khng thch hp nhm khm ph cc dng khng li hay cc cm c kch thc khc nhau. - y l thut ton c lp tuyn tnh.

V d minh ha thut ton K-Means

C1

d1 x d3 d2

C1, C2, C3 l 3 cm. X l phn t thuc tp V Phn X vo cm ? Tnh d1, d2, d3 ln lt l khong cch t x n trng tm ca cm C1, C2, C3. Ta c d3<d2 v d3 < d1, v vy X s c gom vo cm C3

C3

C2
Nhn xt :

Nu d1=d3 < d2 th ta s gom X vo cm no ?

Phng php 1-NN c u im l d ci t nhng c hn ch l d chu nh hng bi nhiu. iu ny d

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ng dng cc thut ton gom cm m, Xich MarKov phn loi v d bo kt xe

dng nhn thy c v bt k mu no trong tp hun luyn kim sot mt phn khng gian d liu (d rng nh). Nu im truy vn ri vo vng khng gian b kim sot bi mu hun luyn c nhiu th s cho kt qu khng chnh xc.

Kt qu gom cm bng 1-NN (Hnh 1) V vy, trn thc t, chng ta thng s dng phng php k-NN vi k 3 (thng chn k l). Hm mc tiu c th l hm ri rc hoc lin tc. Trc tin, hy xt nhng hm mc tiu c gi tr ri rc: f : Rn -> V Trong , V l tp hu hn {v1, vn}. Gi tr f (xq) nhn c bi thut ton l kt qu c lng xp x ca f(xq), l gi tr f ph bin nht trong s k mu hun luyn gn xq nht. Nu chng ta chn k = 1 th thut ton 1-lng ging gn nht s gn cho f (xq) gi tr f(xi) vi xi l i tng hun luyn gn xq nht. i

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vi nhng gi tr k ln hn, thut ton s gn gi tr ph bin nht trong s k mu d liu hun luyn gn nht. Thng thng, ta chn k l ( gim bt kh nng nhiu nhn c cng s phiu) v c gi tr k >= 3. Cn lu rng thut ton k-lng ging gn nht khng bao gi hnh thnh mt gi thuyt f tng qut xp x hm mc tiu f . Gii thut ny ch n gin tnh ton vic phn loi mt i tng mi khi cn thit.

im truy vn q Lng ging gn nht

Lc Voronoi (Hnh 2) Hnh 2 l lc Voronoi ca tp nhng i tng mu. Lc ny th hin s phn hoch khng gian i tng khi s dng phng php 1-NN. Mi i tng mu hun luyn c mt a din gii hn phn khng gian d liu chu s kim sot ca mnh. Nu im truy vn xq ri vo phn khng gian kim sot bi mu un luyn xi no th s c gn gi tr f (xq) <- f(xi). Thut ton k-NN cng cho php xp x nhng hm mc tiu c gi tr lin tc. Lc ny, chng ta s chn gi tr

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trung bnh (c hoc khng c trng s) ca k i tng mu hun luyn gn nht ch khng phi l gi tr ph bin nht . V d p dng:

im truy vn q 3 lng ging gn nht 2x,1o

S dng phng php 3 lng ging gn nht (Hnh 3) Hnh 3 th hin trng hp dng phng php k-lng ging gn nht vi k=3. im truy vn q c 3 lng ging gn nht (gm 2x v 1o). Vy, q c xem thuc v cng phn lp vi x .

im truy

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vn q 7 lng gi ng gn nht 3x, 4o

S dng phng php 7-lng ging gn nht (Hnh 4) Hnh 4 th hin trng hp dng phng php k-lng ging gn nht vi k=7. Lc ny, im truy vn q c 7 lng ging gn nht (gm 3x v 4o). Vy, q li c xem thuc v cng phn lp vi o . Nhn xt: Trong phng php k-lng ging gn nht, chng ta thng biu din cc mu trong Rn. S lng thuc tnh thng 20 v c s lng mu ln. u im: Phng php k-NN c u im hun luyn rt nhanh, c th hc cc hm mc tiu phc tp v khng lm mt thng tin. Nhc im: Truy vn chm v d b nh hng bi nhng thuc tnh khng lin quan. o khong cch Trong phng php k lng ging gn nht, vn chn la o khong cch ph hp, phn nh ng bn cht ca bi ton l iu rt quan trng.

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Hnh 5 minh ha vic t l tng i ca mi chiu trong o khong cch s nh hng n hnh dng ca vng ln cn ca mi mu.Vng khng gian ln cn chu nh hng bi cc mu hun luyn. Mt s o thng dng

Mt nhm cc o khong cch ph bin cho bit t l

theo khong l khong cch Minkowski.

d (i, j) = q (| x x |q + | x x |q +...+ | x x |q ) i1 j1 i2 j 2 ip jp
Vi i = (xi1, xi2, , xip) v j = (xj1, xj2, , xjp) l cc i tng d liu p-chiu v q l s nguyn dng.

Nu q = 1, o khong cch l Manhattan

d (i, j) =| x x | + | x x | +...+ | x x | i1 j1 i2 j 2 i p jp

Nu q = 2, o khong cch l khong cch Euclidean

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d (i, j) = (| x x |2 + | x x |2 +...+ | x x |2 ) Vn gimis chiu v s mu trong 2 1 j1 i2 j phng phpikNN jp p

t vn : Trong trng hp tp d liu hun luyn c s lng phn t ln, hoc mi vector d liu hun luyn c s chiu ln th chi ph chn ra k lng ging gn nht s rt ln. nng cao hiu qu khi p dng phng php kNN, chng ta c th thc hin thao tc chn lc mu hun luyn hoc chn c trng: Chn mu: Thi gian xc nh cc lng ging gn nht ph thuc vo s lng mu hun luyn. Trn thc t, chng ta khng cn phi gi li tt c mu hun luyn m c th loi b mt s mu hun luyn d tha sao cho vn m bo phn khng gian c kim sot bi cc mu. Chn c trng: Trn thc t, khng phi tt c mi c trng thu nhn c u c phi s dng, v trong c cc c trng khng lin quan, hoc cc c trng c mc nhiu cao. V vy, chng ta gim s chiu ca vector d liu hun luyn bng cch loi b bt cc c trng khng lin quan, hoc cc c trng c mc nhiu cao ti u ha thi gian tnh khong cch gia vector mu mi vi mi vector mu c sn trong d liu hun luyn.

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Hnh 6. Vn gim s chiu v s mu trong k-NN Chn lc mu trong NN (Condensed NN) Bi ton: Cho D l tp cc mu hun luyn. Cn chn tp con E D sao cho vic s dng E cho kt qu tt ging nh s dng D . Bng 2.2 th hin thut ton chn lc mu hun luyn Condensed NN. Bng 2.2. Thut ton Condensed NN
Chn ngu nhin x D, D D \ {x}, E {x}, DO learning? FALSE, FOR EACH y D Phn loi y bng NN s dng E, IF phn loi khng chnh xc THEN E E {y}, D D \ {y}, learning? TRUE, WHILE (learning? FALSE)

4 hnh di y th hin v d v vic chn lc mu hun luyn (Condensed NN). Hnh (a) th hin vic phn hoch khng gian (thnh 2 lp) vi 100 mu hun luyn. Cc hnh (b), (c) v (d) mt phn cch gia 2 lp vn khng thay i (so vi trng hp dng 100 mu hun luyn), nhng s mu cn gi li c gim i ng k.

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(a) 2 phn lp vi 100 mu

(b) 2 phn lp vi 13 mu

(c) 2 phn lp vi 13 mu

(d) 2 phn lp vi 8 mu

Thut ton Lng ging gn nht c trng s theo khong cch Thut ton Lng ging gn nht c trng s theo khong cch (distanceweighted nearest neighbor) l mt ci tin ca thut ton k-NN, trong , mi mu trong s k i tng ln cn gn nht vi mu truy vn s c trng s nghch bin vi khong cch ca chng i vi im truy vn xq. Nh vy, mu cng gn th trng s cng ln, mu cng xa th trng s cng nh.

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Ci tin tc x l ca phng php kNN Phng php Bucketing

Hnh 7. K thut Bucketing Phng php Bucketing cn gi l phng php Elias [Welch 1971]. Trong phng php ny, khng gian c chia thnh cc bng nhau; trong mi , cc mu d liu c lu tr di dng danh sch. Hnh 10 minh ha k thut Bucketing Cc c xt theo th t khong cch n im truy vn tng dn. Mi im mu hun luyn trong c xt s c tnh khong cch vi im cn truy vn. Qu trnh tm kim k-lng ging gn nht s dng khi khong cch t im truy vn n s xt vt qu khong cch t im truy vn n mu gn nht th k. Phng php Cy k-d Cy k-d [Bentley 1975, Friedman et al 1977] l s tng qut ha cy tm kim nh phn trong khng gian nhiu chiu. Mi nt trung gian trn cy tng ng vi mt khi hp (hyper-rectangle) v mt siu phng vung gc vi mt trc ta . Siu phng ny s chia khi hp thnh hai phn, mi phn tng ng vi mt nt con. Qu trnh phn hoch khng gian ny s dng khi s lng im mu trong khi hp di mt ngng cho trc.

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Cy k-d gip phn hoch khng gian mu a chiu theo phn b mu trong khng gian. Vng khng gian cng nhiu mu s c phn hoch mn hn. Vi mi im truy vn, trc tin, chng ta xc nh khi hp (tng ng vi nt l trn cy) cha im truy vn, sau , xt cc im mu trong khi hp ny, tip n l cc khi hp ln cn n khi c k lng ging gn nht. Hnh 8 v Hnh 9 ln lt minh ha cy k-d trong trng hp 2 chiu v 3 chiu.

nh 11.

Hnh 8 minh ha cy k-d (trng hp 2 chiu)

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Hnh 9 chiu)

minh ha cy k-d (trng hp 3

V d p dng Cc v d c trnh by trong phn ny c trch t ti liu ging dy mn Applied Artificial Intelligence Course ca GS. Pdraig Cunningham, Department of Computer Science, The University of Dublin, Ireland . (https://www.cs.tcd.ie/Padraig.Cunningham/) V d 1:

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ng dng cc thut ton gom cm m, Xich MarKov phn loi v d bo kt xe

(a)

(b) Hnh 10. V d 1 p dng k-NN

(c)

Gi s ta c 3 lp phn tch khng tuyn tnh nh trong Hnh 10(a). Cho mu hun luyn nh trong Hnh 10(b). Khi s dng k-NN vi k=5, ta c vng quyt nh c th hin nh trong Hnh 10(c). V d 2: Gi s c 3 lp phn tch khng tuyn tnh nh trong Hnh 11(a). Cho cc mu hun luyn nh trong Hnh 11(b).

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ng dng cc thut ton gom cm m, Xich MarKov phn loi v d bo kt xe

(a)

(b) Hnh 11.V d 2 p dng k-NN

1-NN

(a)

(b)

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ng dng cc thut ton gom cm m, Xich MarKov phn loi v d bo kt xe

5-NN

(c)

(d)

20-NN

(e)

(f)

Hnh 12. Vng quyt nh khi s dng k-NN vi cc gi tr k khc nhau

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ng dng cc thut ton gom cm m, Xich MarKov phn loi v d bo kt xe

Hnh 12 th hin vng quyt nh khi thay i gi tr k. Khi gi tr k qu ln s lm mt i tnh cht cc b trong khng gian mu, dn n kt qu c th khng cn tt na (v d nh khi chn k=20 nh Hnh 12(e-f)). Kt lun Thut ton k-lng ging gn nht, cng nh thut ton c s dng trng s theo khong cch, l cc phng php suy lun quy np c hiu qu cao i vi nhiu vn thc t. Cc phng php ny tng i hiu qu i vi d liu b nhiu, c bit l khi c cung cp mt tp d liu ln. Cn lu rng, bng cch ly trung bnh (c trng s) ca k mu gn nht, phng php k-NN c th lm gim s nh hng ca nhng mu b nhiu. Mt vn thc t trong vic p dng nhng thut ton k-NN l vic tnh khong cch gia cc i tng li da trn tt c nhng thuc tnh ca i tng. iu ny khc vi nhng h thng hc theo lut v cy quyt nh: trong cc h thng ny ch chn mt tp con trong nhng thuc tnh ca i tng khi hnh thnh gi thuyt. thy hiu qu ca lut ny, chng ta hy xem xt vic p dng k-NN cho bi ton m trong mi i tng c m t bng 20 thuc tnh, nhng ch c 2 trong s l nhng thuc tnh lin quan n vic quyt nh s phn loi i vi hm mc tiu. Trong trng hp ny, nhng i tng c gi tr ca 2 thuc tnh ny ging ht nhau c th cch xa nhau trong khng gian 20 chiu. V h qu l vic o ging nhau trong phng php k-NN s khng chnh xc v ph thuc vo tt c 20 thuc tnh. Khong cch gia nhng i tng ln cn s b nh hng ln bi s lng ln nhng thuc tnh khng lin quan. Nhng cch tip cn theo lng ging gn nht thng nhy cm c bit vi vn ny. Mt hng tip cn th v khc phc vn ny l gn trng s cho mi thuc tnh khi tnh khong cch gia 2 i tng. Cch ny tng ng vi vic co gin cc trc ta trong khng gian Euclide, lm ngn cc trc ta tng ng vi nhng thuc tnh khng lin quan n vic phn lai i tng, v ko di cc trc ta tng ng vi cc thuc tnh lin quan nhiu hn. Mc co gin ca mi trc ta c th c quyt nh t ng bng cch s dng phng php cross-validation.

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ng dng cc thut ton gom cm m, Xich MarKov phn loi v d bo kt xe

Mt vn thc t na trong vic p dng k-NN l vic to ch mc hiu qu. Do thut ton tr hon vic x l n khi nhn c mt yu cu phn loi i tng mi, vic x l mi truy vn c th phi tnh ton ng k. Nhiu k thut khc nhau c pht trin to ch mc cho nhng i tng mu c lu tr nhng i tng ln cn nht c th c nhn dng hiu qu hn vi mt t chi ph thm vo trong b nh, v d nh bucketing hay cy k-d. 2.1.2.2 THUT TON K-MEDOIDS
u vo thut ton: S cc cm K, v CSDL c n i tng. Thut ton c 4 bc:

Bc 1: Chn bt k K i tng lm medoids ban u i din cho cc i tng. Bc 2: Gn tng i tng cn li cho cm c medoids gn nht. Bc 3: Chn medoids v thay th cc medoids nu ci thin c tnh trng gom cm. Bc 4: Quay v bc 2, dng khi khng cn php gn mi.

u, nhc im ca thut ton K-MEDOIDS : u im: K-MEDOIDS lm vic c vi nhiu v bit l. Khuyt im: K-MEDOIDS ch hiu qu khi tp d liu khng qu ln v c phc tp l O(k(n-k))^2*t) trong : - n: S im trong khng gian d liu. - k: S cm cn phn hoch. - t: S ln lp, t kh nh so vi n.

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ng dng cc thut ton gom cm m, Xich MarKov phn loi v d bo kt xe

K-medoids Example : country dissimilarities 3-medoids multidimensional scaling 2.1.2.3 THUT TON ISODATA Thut ton ny c xy dng da trn c s ca thut ton K-means, nhng c b sung thm 3 qu trnh : - Kh b cm. - Tch cm. - Gom cm.

Thut ton ISODATA gm cc bc sau: Bc 1: Khi to Kinit cm, v chn Kinit mu trong tp mu lm trung tm cho cc cm. Bc 2: Phn chia cc mu vo trong cc cm theo nguyn l khong cch ngn nht.

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ng dng cc thut ton gom cm m, Xich MarKov phn loi v d bo kt xe

Bc 3: Kh b cc cm c s lng mu nh hn ngng nmin cho trc, sau thc hin phn chia cc mu ny vo trong cc cm khc c K cm. Bc 4: Tnh ton li trung tm ca cm bng trung bnh ca tt c cc mu trong mi cm. Bc 5: Vi mi cm k, tnh n2(k) ca mi thnh phn n ca xn trong cm ny v tm max (n*2(k)) ca thnh phn trong cm k vi n=1, 2,..N. Bc 6: Nu khng cm (Kinit < K/2) v y khng phi l bc lp cui cng th thc hin kim tra: 1. Nu max(k) > split ca cm k no th tch cm ny thnh 2 cm mi. Bc 7: Nu y l bc lp chn v Kinit > 2K th thc hin tnh tt c cc khong cch gia nhng trng tm ca cm, thc hin kt hp nhng cm c gi tr gn vi gi tr tnh c.

u, nhc im ca thut ton ISODATA: u im: y l mt phng php: - C kh nng t t chc. - Mm do trong x l kh b nhng cm c kch thc qu nh. - C kh nng tch bit c cc cm c tnh cht hon ton khc nhau. - C kh nng kt hp nhng cm gn ging nhau thnh 1 mt cm. Nhc im: - Qu nhiu tham s cn phi cung cp bi ngi dng, mc d chng khng phi l i lng cn phi bit.

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ng dng cc thut ton gom cm m, Xich MarKov phn loi v d bo kt xe

- Cc cm c l hnh cu c xc nh bi hm khong cch. - Gi tr K ph thuc vo nhng tham s do ngi s dng qui nh v n cng khng phi l nhng gi tr tt nht. - Cm trung bnh thng khng phi l mu tt nht cho mt cm. 2.1.2.4 THUT TON PHN CP To phn cp cm, ch khng phi phn hoch cc i tng. u vo khng cn s cm k. Dng ma trn khong cch lm tiu chun gom cm. S cm s do khong cch gia cc cm hoc iu kin dng quyt nh. Phn cp cm thng c biu din di dng th dng cy cc cm, v c gi l dendrogram. Cc l ca cy biu din tng i tng ring l. Cc nt trong biu din cc cm.

Cc phng php tip cn gom cm phn cp:

o Phng php gp:

1. Xut pht mi i tng v to cm cha n. 2. Nu hai cm gn nhau (di mt ngng no ) s c gp li thnh mt cm duy nht. 3. Lp li bc 2 cho n khi ch cn mt cm duy nht l ton b khng gian.
o Phng php tch:

1. Xut pht t mt cm duy nht l ton b khng gian.

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ng dng cc thut ton gom cm m, Xich MarKov phn loi v d bo kt xe

2. Chn cm c phn bit cao nht (ma trn phn bit c phn t ln nht) tch i. Trong bc 2 ny s p dng cc phng php phn hoch i vi cm chn. 3. Lp li bc 2 cho n khi mi i tng thuc mt cm hoc iu kin dng (c ngha l s cm cn thit hoc khong cch gia cc cm t ngng nh).

Cc khong cch gia cc cm thng dng: - Khong cch nh nht. - Khong cch ln nht. - Khong cch trung bnh. - Khong cch trng tm.

u, nhc im ca thut ton phn cp: u im: - y l thut ton c khi nim n gin, d hiu. - C l thuyt tt. - Khi cm uc trn, quyt nh l vnh cu. S cc phng n khc cn xem xt b rt gim. Khuyt im: - Khi trn cc cm l vnh cu. Nu quyt nh sai th khng th khc phc. - Cc phng php phn chia phi cn thi gian cho vic tnh ton. - Cc phng php khc khng th scalable cho tp d liu ln.

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ng dng cc thut ton gom cm m, Xich MarKov phn loi v d bo kt xe

Step 0 Step 1 Step 2 Step 3 Step 4

agglom erative

a b c d e

ab abcde cde de divisive

Step 4 Step 3 Step 2 Step 1 Step 0

Hai loi k thut gom cm phn lp

Gp-agglomerative (t di ln) Phn chia -divisive (t trn xung) 2.1.2.5 THUT TON DA TRN M HNH y l thut ton da trn s ph hp gia d liu v cc m hnh ton hc. tng ca thut ton ny l : D liu pht sinh t mt s kt hp no ca cc phn phi xc sut n.

C hai phng php tip cn chnh: 1. Tip cn theo thng k ( Thut ton COBWEB, CLASSIT, AUTOCLASS). 2. Tip cn mng nron (hc cnh tranh, bn t cu trc SOM).

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ng dng cc thut ton gom cm m, Xich MarKov phn loi v d bo kt xe

2.1.2.6 THUT TON DA TRN LI tng thut ton ny l dng cc cu trc d liu dng li vi nhiu cp phn gii. nhng li c mt cao s to thnh nhng cm. Thut ton da trn li rt ph hp vi cc phn tch gom cm ng dng trong khng gian (phn loi sao, thin h...). Ngoi ra cn c cc thut ton khc nh:( STING, WAVECLUSTER, CLIQUE).

Cvc Gom cm bng thut ton da trn li

2.1.2.7 THUT TON DBSCAN

Thut ton DBSCAN gm cc bc sau: Bc 1: Chn mt im p bt k thuc khng gian d liu D.

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ng dng cc thut ton gom cm m, Xich MarKov phn loi v d bo kt xe

Bc 2: Tm tp P gm tt c cc im lin thng mt t p vi ngng bn knh Eps v ngng mt min Pts. Bc 3: Nu p l mt im ht nhn th : a. P chnh l mt cm cn tm. b. D = D \ P (loi P ra khi D). Bc 4: Quay li bc 1 cho n khi tt c cc im trong D u c xt. Bc 5: Cc im xt nhng khng thuc cm no th chnh l cc mu c bit.

u, nhc im ca thut ton DBSCAN: u im: Tm c cc cm c hnh dng bt k do nhiu hoc mu c bit gay ra. Nhc im: - Kh chn c cc ngng Eps v min Pts tt. Do kt qu gom cm khng tt khi mt trong cc cm t nhin l chnh lch rt nhiu. - Mt im yu na l khng ph hp cho yu cu phn cp cm m ch p ng nhu cu phn hoch. Bn knh ln cn v ngng tr mt l cc tham s quyt nh n kt qa gom cm. c kt qu gom cm tt : C th th vi mt s b tham s v chn ra kt qu ti u. to cy phn cp cm th c th p dng chin lc phn gii tng dn nh sau : 1. u tin chn bn knh ln cn v ngng tr mt th (Eps ln v min Pts nh). 2. Chn cm c phn bit ln nht (thng qua ma trn phn bit ca cm hoc mt tiu ch nh gi tu thuc vo nhu cu ng dng). Cm c chn bc ny s to thnh mt nt ca cy phn cp. 3. Phn hoch cm c chn bng thut ton

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ng dng cc thut ton gom cm m, Xich MarKov phn loi v d bo kt xe

DBSCAN. 4. Nu tt c cc cm to c u c phn bit ni ti thp hoc t c s cm cn thit th dng. Cc cm cn li ti thi im kt thc thut ton to thnh cc nt l ca cy phn cp. 5. Gim bn knh ln cn v tng ngng tr mt. Mc iu chnh tu thuc bn cht d liu v nhu cu gom cm. 6. Quay li bc 2. c im ca phng php to cy phn cp cm da trn thut ton DBSCAN c th to cy a phn. Cc thut ton khc theo hng tip cn da trn mt nh OPTICS, DENCLUE.

k-means, k=3

DBScan

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ng dng cc thut ton gom cm m, Xich MarKov phn loi v d bo kt xe

(a) Basic configuration

(b) k-means

(c) Bottom-up and DBScan

(d) Dendrogram

Hnh 13 Th hin s gom cm bng K-Means , DBScan. 2.1.2.8 CC THUT TON GOM CM M - Gom cm m ng vai tr quan trng trong cc lnh vc nhn dng (pattern recognition) v nh dng m hnh m. Mt phng php phn cm c s dng rng ri nht hin nay l thut ton Fuzzy Cmean (FCM). N s dng mi tng quan khong cch tnh ton cc trng s m. Mt thut ton hiu qu hn l thut ton FCFM (fuzzy clustering fuzzy merging). N s dng phng php xc nh trng s
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ng dng cc thut ton gom cm m, Xich MarKov phn loi v d bo kt xe

theo Gaussian tnh ton cc trng tm ca cm, khi to cc mu ln v b sung cc x l kh, gom cm v kt hp cc cm. Chng ta s thc hin kho st cc m hnh phn cm m trong phn k tip. 2.2 CC M HNH GOM CM M (FUZZY CLUSTERING MODELS) 2.2.1 M HNH FUZZY C-MEAN (FCM) Nguyn tc ca thut ton:
Mi phn t q V ban u c gn cho mt tp trng s Wqk,

trong Wqk cho bit kh nng q thuc v cm k, (k=1,K)Wqk=1. C nhiu cch tnh trng s Wqk khc nhau, trong Wqk=1/Dqk thng c s dng nht (Dqk l khong cch t q n trng tm ca cm k). Trong qu trnh gom cm trng s ny c th c cp nht mi bc lp khi trng tm ca cm b thay i. Sau khi kt thc qu trnh gom cm, mt cm khng c mn no s b loi, do s cm tm c thng khng bit trc. Thut ton fuzzy C-mean gm cc bc: Bc 0: Khi to cc gi tr K: s cm, Imax: s ln lp, p: h s c s dng tnh trng s (p>1). Bc 1: Khi to trng s cho cc mu. Bc 2: Chun ha cc trng s khi to trong K. Bc 3: Chun ha cc trng s trong Q. Bc 4: Tnh trng tm mi ca mu. Bc 5: Tnh trng s mi. Bc 6: Nu I < Imax quay li bc 3. Bc 7: Phn chia cc mu vo trong cc cm. Bc 8: Kh b cc cm khng c mu no. Bc 9: Tnh ton trng tm ca cc cm.

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ng dng cc thut ton gom cm m, Xich MarKov phn loi v d bo kt xe M gi thut ton FCM (Fuzzy C-Mean)
K l s cm Imax l bc lp ca thut ton C-Mean p l trng s -------------Bc 1: -------------for k = 0 to K-1 for q = 0 to Q-1 w[q,k] = random();
C1

------------Bc 2: -------------for q = 0 to Q-1 sum = 0.0; for k = 0 to K-1 sum = sum + w[q,k]; for k = 0 to K-1 w[q,k] = w[q,k]/sum;
C3

wq1 q wq3

wq2

C2

------------Bc 3: -------------for k = 0 to K-1 min = 99999.0; max =0.0; for q = 0 to Q-1 if (w[q,k] > max) max = w[q,k]; if (w[q,k] < min) min = w[q,k]; sum = 0.0 for q = 0 to Q-1 sum = sum + (w[q,k] min) /( max min); for q = 0 to Q-1 w[q,k] = w[q,k]/sum;

q1

wq1 k wq3

wq2 q2

q3

------------Bc 4: -------------for k = 0 to K-1 for n = 0 to N-1 sum = 0.0; for q = 0 to Q-1 sum = sum + w[q,k] x[n,q]; z[n,k] = sum;

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ng dng cc thut ton gom cm m, Xich MarKov phn loi v d bo kt xe

------------Bc 5: -------------for q = 0 to Q-1 sum = 0.0 for k = 0 to K-1 D[q,k] =0.0; for n = 0 to N-1 D[q,k] = D[q,k] + (x[n,q] z[n,k])2 sum = sum + (1/(1 + D[q,k]))1/(p-1) ; for k = 0 to K-1 W[q,k] = (1/(1 + D[q,k]))1/(p-1) /sum; ------------Bc 6 : -------------I=I+1 If I < Imax Goto step 3; ------------Bc 7: -------------for q = 0 to Q-1 maxWeight = 0.0; for k = 0 to K-1 if maxWeight < weight[q,k]; maxWeight = weight[q,k]; kmax = k; cluster[q] = k;

------------ Bc 8: -------------eliminate(0);

------------ Bc 9: -------------for k = 1 to K do fuzzyweights(); 2k = variance(); = Xie-Beni();

Nhn xt thut ton FCM (F-C-Mean):

u im : - D thc hin. - Fuzzy C-Mean ph hp vi cc vn nhn dng trong khng gian a chiu. - C kh nng tm c ti u ton cc. - Hiu nng kh tt, tng ng K-MEANS. phc tp l O(tkn), trong : n: S im trong khng gian d liu. k: S cm cn phn hoch.
39

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ng dng cc thut ton gom cm m, Xich MarKov phn loi v d bo kt xe

t: S ln lp (t l kh nh so vi n). Nhc im : - Cc cng thc tnh ton kh phc tp. - Tc hi t ty thuc vo trng thi ban u ca ma trn thnh vin U v tham s m ho m. - Nhng do hnh dng th hin ca cm l hnh cu, nn d b giao nhau.

C1

Phn giao nhau

C3 C2

2.2.2 M HNH FUZZY C-ELLIPTOTYPE (FCE)

T tng ca thut ton ny tng t nh t tng ca thut ton

Fuzzy C-Mean, trong hnh dng ca cc cm l hnh ellpise. im khc bit gia cm c dng ellipse so vi hnh cu l cm dy c hn, gim c s giao nhau gia cc cm.

C1

Phn giao nhau

Phn giao nhau

C3

C1

C3 C2

C2

Cc cm hnh cu

Cc cm hnh ellipse

Nhn xt thut ton FUZZY C-ELLIPTOTYPE (FCE):

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ng dng cc thut ton gom cm m, Xich MarKov phn loi v d bo kt xe

- Gim c s chng cho gia cc cm. - Nhng vic xc nh hnh dng ca cm l tng i kh.

C1

C3

Cc Ellipse dng ny rt kh xc nh
C2

C4

2.2.3 M HNH FUZZY C-MIXED PROTOTYPE (FCMP) tng ca thut ton ny l s kt hp gia Fuzzy C-Mean & Fuzzy Ellipse, thc hin qua 2 giai on: 1 Giai an 1: Gom cm s dng Fuzzy C-Mean. 2 Giai on 2: Tin hnh bin dng hnh cu thnh Ellipse.

C1

Phn giao nhau

Phn giao nhau

C3

C1

C3 C2

C2

Giai on 1

Giai on 2

2.2.4 M HNH FUZZY CLUSTERING FUZZY MERGING (FCFM)

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ng dng cc thut ton gom cm m, Xich MarKov phn loi v d bo kt xe

tng ca thut ton: Qu trnh gom cm xy ra theo cc giai on l gom cm, tch cm, trn cm. Qu trnh gom cm v trn cm c thc hin xen k ln nhau.

C1

C3

Phn giao nhau

Trn cm C1 & C3

C1

C2

C2

2.3 CC H THNG M: Phn ln cc sn phm thng mi m l cc h thng da trn cc lut m c iu khin hot ng bi mt thit b c kh hay thit b khc. iu khin m nhn thng tin hin hnh phn hi t thit b khi n vn hnh. Trong hnh di y cho thy: thng tin chnh xc t thit b c chuyn sang gi tr m c x l bi nhng kin thc c s m. Gi tr m xut ra c chuyn sang gi tr chnh xc thay i iu kin hot ng ca thit b, v d nh thit b gim tc m t hoc gim nhit hot ng.

D liu nhp
D liu xut m Chuyn i d liu m thnh d liu chnh xc D liu xut chnh xc

H thng Tp m/Hm iu( khin L Thnh CH0601069 ) Thnh vin/Lut

42

ng dng cc thut ton gom cm m, Xich MarKov phn loi v d bo kt xe

D liu xut Cc chuyn gia kinh doanh v qun l chia cc vn v gii quyt cc vn theo cc tiu ch sau: + M t: y cn xc nh vn . V d: Ngay ti giao l ng t Cch Mng Thng Tm v Phm Vn Hai. Ngi cnh st trc mun bit ti sao thng hay b kt xe vo cc bui chiu th su v th by hng tun. + Ti u: Ti u ha l thit lp iu kin vn hnh nh l cho php c bao nhiu xe c php qua li ti giao l ng t Cch Mng Thng Tm v Phm Vn Hai trong 1 gi, phi xc nh iu kin hoc hnh ng m cho php h thng tha iu kin . Vn ny c Fuzzy Knowledge Builder TM gii quyt. + Tha mn : gii quyt vn thch ng phi xc nh lm th no t xu nht m hot ng ti a vi nhng hn ch tht s c thit lp. V du: Ngay ti giao l ng t Cch Mng Thng Tm v Phm Vn Hai cn xc nh s lng xe ti a c th qua li trong 1 gi iu ng s xe cn li c th i ng khc. Vn ny c gii quyt bi cng c Fuzzy Decision Maker Knowledge Builder TM. + D on: Gii quyt vn d on thng dng cc kt qu qua v nghin cu chng trong tng lai ( ngoi suy ra) . V d: Ngay ti giao l ng t Cch Mng Thng Tm v Phm Vn Hai c th phn tch c bao nhiu xe qua li vo ngy l Quc
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TM

hay Fuzzy

ng dng cc thut ton gom cm m, Xich MarKov phn loi v d bo kt xe

Khnh 2 thng 9 ca nm va ri, k dng thng tin ny d on s lng xe vo ngy ny nm nay. Vn ny c th c gii quyt bng bi cng c Fuzzy Knowledge Builder TM hay Fuzzy Thought Amplifier TM . 2.4. CCH TO MT H THNG IU KHIN M C 5 bc to H Thng M : - Bc 1: Xc nh v t tn cho gi tr nhp m (Identify and Name Fuzzy Inputs). - Bc 2: Xc nh v t tn cho gi tr xut m (Identify and Name Fuzzy Output). - Bc 3: To cc hm thnh vin (Create the Fuzzy Membership Functions) - Bc 4: Xy dng c s lut (Construct the Rule Base). Dng ma trn xy dng c s lut, mi cha mt hnh ng xut m mc d khng cn thit phi lp y cc . - Bc 5: Quyt nh thc thi hnh ng (Decide How to Execute the Action). Bng cch dng cc lut v chuyn i s m thnh s chnh xc. V d: To mt h m gip ngi i xe xc nh khi no th dng phanh v dng nh th no. - Bc 1: Xc nh v t tn cho gi tr nhp m y ta c 2 thnh phn cn nhp vo l khong cch v tc . Bng ga tr nhp cho cc tc nh sau: Tn Dng Chm Nhanh va Rt nhanh Bng gi tr cho thy khong cch nh sau: Tn Ti v tr Rt gn Gn Hi xa Vng gi tr ( feet) 0-5 0-40 20-80 60-120 Vng gi tr (dm/gi) 0-2 1-10 5-30 25-50

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ng dng cc thut ton gom cm m, Xich MarKov phn loi v d bo kt xe

Rt xa - Bc 2: Xc nh v t tn cho gi tr xut m. Gi tr xut y l phanh Bng gi tr xut cho phanh nh sau: Tn Khng Nh Trung bnh Mnh - Bc 3: To cc hm thnh vin. + Tc . + khong cch. + phanh. - Bc 4: Xy dng c s lut.

100-165

Vng gi tr ( 0%) 0-1 1-30 25-75 65-100

Khong cch -> Tc Khng chy Chy chm Chy hi nhanh Chy nhanh

Ti v tr dng

Rt gn v tr dng

Gn v tr dng

Hi xa v tr dng

Rt xa v tr dng

Gi tr phanh:

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ng dng cc thut ton gom cm m, Xich MarKov phn loi v d bo kt xe

Khng phanh Phanh nh Phanh trung bnh Phanh mnh

Cc lut: 1. 2. 3.
4.

Khi bn ti v tr bin bo dng v bn khng chy th phanh l Khi bn rt gn v tr bin bo dng v bn khng chy th phanh Khi bn gn bin bo dng v bn khng chy th phanh l Khi bn hi xa bin bo dng v bn khng chy th phanh l Khi bn rt xa d bin bo dng v bn khng chy th phanh l Khi bn ti v tr d bin bo dng v bn i chm th phanh Khi bn rt gn bin bo dng v bn i chm th phanh l Khi bn gn bin bo dng v bn i chm th phanh l nh . Khi bn hi xa bin bo dng v bn i chm th phanh l Khi bn rt xa bin bo dng v bn i chm th phanh l Khi bn ti v tr bin bo dng v bn i hi nhanh th phanh Khi bn rt gn bin bo dng v bn i hi nhanh th phanh l

khng phanh . l khng phanh . khng phanh. khng phanh.

5.

khng phanh.
6.

l trung bnh.
7.

nh .
8.

9. 10. 11. 12. mnh .

khng phanh . khng phanh . l mnh .

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ng dng cc thut ton gom cm m, Xich MarKov phn loi v d bo kt xe

13. mnh. 14. 15. nh . 16. mnh . 17. mnh. 18. mnh . 19. 20. nh .

Khi bn gn bin bo dng v bn i hi nhanh th phanh l Khi bn hi xa bin bo dng v bn i hi nhanh th phanh l Khi bn rt xa bin bo dng v bn i hi nhanh th phanh l Khi bn ti v tr bin bo dng v bn i rt nhanh th phanh l Khi bn rt gn bin bo dng v bn i rt nhanh th phanh l Khi bn gn bin bo dng v bn i rt nhanh th phanh l Khi bn hi xa bin bo dng v bn i rt nhanh th phanh l Khi bn rt xa bin bo dng v bn i rt nhanh th phanh l

trung bnh.

trung bnh.

- Bc 5: Thc hin hnh ng . 2.5 C S L THUYT CA XCH MARKOV Xch Markov l g? Xch Markov l mt loi qu trnh ngu nhin n gin, gm mt dy th nghim ging nhau, trong kt qu ca mt th nghim ch ph thuc vo kt qu ca mt th nghim xy ra lin trc n. Mc ch ch yu ca xch Markov l d on kt qu tng lai da vo vt tch ca qu kh v c s hin ti. Ma trn xc sut chuyn

Cho xch Markov (Xn, n 0) vi r trng thi hu hn.

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ng dng cc thut ton gom cm m, Xich MarKov phn loi v d bo kt xe

Gi ma trn P=pij , i,j [1,n], trong pij=P({Xn+1=j/Xn=i}) l xc sut xy ra Xn+1=j vi iu kin Xn=i, th P l ma trn chuyn ca xch Markov. pij = P{Xn+1=j/Xn=i}: l kh nng Xn+1 ri vo trng thi j nu Xn ri vo trng thi i.

P l ma trn xc sut chuyn nu tt c cc phn t pij 0 v tng

tt c cc phn t trn mi hng bng 1. Vector xc sut

V = (v1,v2,v2,..vn) l vector xc sut i [1,n], vi 0 & vi =1. Phn phi xc sut ban u ca Xich Markov

Phn phi xc sut ban u ca xch Markov l mt vector xc p(0)i cho bit xc sut ri vo trng thi i khi bt u thc hin

sut P(0) = {p(0)1, p(0)2 , p(0)3 ,.. p(0)r}. nghin cu. Xc xut ti thi im n

Cho P(0) l xc sut ban u. P l ma trn xc xut chuyn. P(n) = P(0) . P vi P P(n) = {p(n)1, p(n)2 , p(n)3 ,.. p(n)r}.

Trong p(n)i = P{Xn=i} l xc sut qu trnh ri vo trng thi i

thi im n. Phn loi xch Markov C 2 loi xch Markov: Xch Markov chnh quy (Regular Markov Chain).

Xch Markov c gi l chnh quy nu tn ti mt ly tha k

ca ma trn xc sut chuyn sao cho tt c cc phn t ca ma trn ly tha ny u dng ( k, pij(k) >0 i.j).

Pn T khi n .

t T l ma trn c cc dng ging nhau. t t P= t

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ng dng cc thut ton gom cm m, Xich MarKov phn loi v d bo kt xe

t=(t1,t2,t3,tr) l vector xc sut c nh, vi r l s trng thi. Xc nh t bng cch gii h phng trnh.
tP=t t1+t2+t3++tr=1

Xch Markov hp thu (Absorbing Markov Chain) - Trng thi hp thu (Absorbing State). - Cho xch Markov vi ma trn chuyn P=Pij, Pij l xc sut chuyn t trng thi i sang trng thi j. - Nu Pij = 1 th i c gi l trng thi hp thu. - Xch Markov hp thu (Absorbing Markov Chain). - Mt xch Markov c gi l hp thu nu v ch nu: P cha t nht mt trng thi hp thu. C th chuyn t trng thi khng hp thu sang trng thi hp thu sau mt s bc (ln) no . 3. NG DNG CC K THUT GII QUYT BI TON T RA 3.1 NG DNG M HNH XCH MARKOV D BO TNH TRNG GIAO THNG 3.1.1 BI TON 1 Gi s trng thi ti cc giao l ti mt thi im no thuc mt trong cc trng thi sau: - Bnh thng (TT1). - Hi ng (TT2). - Kt xe (TT3). Tin hnh kho st d liu ti giao l X, ta c c s liu thng k nh sau: - Xc xut ri vo cc trng thi ti ng t X ti thi im t0 =5h

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ng dng cc thut ton gom cm m, Xich MarKov phn loi v d bo kt xe

+ P(0)1=0.6, P(0)2=0.2, P(0)3=0.2 . + Ta c ma trn xc sut chuyn nh sau:

0.55 P= 0.40 0.20

0.30 0.15 0.50 0.10 0.40 0.40

- P12: xc sut chuyn t trng thi bnh thng hi ng. - P21: xc sut chuyn t trng thi hi ng bnh thng.

Gi s chu k kho st l 1 gi. trng thi no ta tnh P(5) theo cng thc sau:

Mun bit trng thi ti giao l X sau 5 gi so vi t 0 s ri vo

5
P(5)= P(0) . P5 = (0.6, 0.2, 0.2).

0.55 0.40 0.20

0.30 0.50 0.40

0.15 0.10 = (x, y, z) 0.40

Da vo kt qu tnh c t P(5) ta s bit c trng thi ti

giao l X sau 5 gi so vi t0. Gi s tnh c P(5)= (0.66, 0.24, 0.1), ngha l kh nng giao l X ri vo trng thi: - Bnh thng l 66% - Hi ng l 24% - Kt xe l 10%

3.1.2 BI TON 2

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ng dng cc thut ton gom cm m, Xich MarKov phn loi v d bo kt xe

Tng t nh bi ton 1, d bo trng thi ca giao l ti mt thi im no da vo thng tin v trng thi ca n cng thi im trc . Gi s ta chia trc thi gian trong ngy thnh cc khong : 5h-6h, 6h7h, 7h-8h,, chu k xt cho cc thi im l : Th 2, Th 3, Th 4,.. Xt mt xch Markov c th cho mt khong thi gian 5h-6h th 6 hng tun nh sau: - Gi P(0)56-2 : l vector xc sut ban u. P56-2: l ma trn xc xut chuyn vi Pij cho bit xc sut ng t chuyn t trng thi i sang trng thi j. P(1)56-2 : l vector xc sut cho bit trng thi ca ng t ti thi im 5h-6h th 2 ca tun tip theo sau P(0)56-2 mt tun. Tng t P(2)56-2 : l vector xc sut cho bit trng thi ca ng t ti thi im 5h-6h th 2 ca tun tip theo sau P(1)56-2 mt tun. - p dng l thuyt xch Markov P(n)56-2 = P(0)56-2 .Pn56-2 . c th d bo c tt c cc thi im trong ngy v tt c cc ngy trong tun ta cn phi xy dng cc xch markov sau:

P56-2, P56-3, P56-4, P56-5, P56-6, P56-7, P56-8 P67-2, P67-3, P67-4, P67-5, P67-6, P67-7, P67-8 P78-2, P78-3, P78-4, P78-5, P78-6, P78-7, P78-8 P89-2, P89-3, P89-4, P89-5, P89-6, P89-7, P89-8
.

Pmn-2, Pmn-3, Pmn-4, Pmn-5, Pmn-6, Pmn-7, Pmn-8

Trong Pij-k : l xch markow d bo trng thi ng t ti thi im ij vo ngy th k trong tun.

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ng dng cc thut ton gom cm m, Xich MarKov phn loi v d bo kt xe

Vi phng php d bo ny th trng thi ca mt giao l no ch ph thuc vo trng thi ca n ti cng thi im trc mt tun m khng ph thuc vo trng thi ca cc giao l ln cn. 3.1.3 BI TON 3 D bo trng thi ca giao l ti mt thi im no da vo thng tin v lu lng xe t cc ng t ln cn hng v n v ngc li. Gi s ta xy dng c bng tra mi lin h gia lu lng xe (L) v trng thi ca giao l nh sau: - L < 20 tng ng vi trng thi bnh thng. - L [20-50] tng ng vi trng thi hi ng. - L >50 tng ng vi trng thi kt xe.
Gi s ti ng t X c 4 ng t ln cn ln lt c t tn l X1, X2,

X3, X4. Gi P l ma trn xc sut chuyn, trong pij cho bit xc sut xe ang ng t Xi chuyn qua ng t Xj trong khong thi gian m pht.

Bi ton p dng : - Vi lng xe hin ti ti cc ng t X, X1, X2, X3, X4 th sau n pht ti ng t X s ri vo trng thi no ? - Gi s ng t X ang trng thi i, bao lu th X s chuyn sang trng thi j. 3.2 NG DNG M HNH GOM CM FCMP (FUZZY C-MIXED PROTOTYPE) PHN LP GIAO THNG 3.2.1 VN BI TON Ti mt a im X trn ng giao thng, thc hin kho st lu lng xe i qua trong mt khong thi gian t no .

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ng dng cc thut ton gom cm m, Xich MarKov phn loi v d bo kt xe Gi s t=15 pht, ta tin hnh 24x4 = 96 ln kho st lu lng xe

i qua ti a im X bit c lu lng xe ti tng thi im khc nhau trong ngy. Tng t, ta li kho st lu lng xe trong cng mt thi im nhng nhng ngy khc nhau trong tun (th 2, th 3,..,ngy l ). Cui cng, ta s c c s liu thng k v th biu din gia thi gian v lu lng xe xy ra trong thi gian . 3.2.2 HUNG GII QUYT BI TON Xy dng h thng d bo lu lng xe xy ra ti mt a im X trong mt khong thi gian no , khi bit c trng thi trong qu kh ca n v cc giao l ln cn. 4. KT LUN, HNG PHT TRIN Hin nay, c rt nhiu hng nghin cu v vic ng dng cng ngh - D bo mc kt xe da vo x l nh giao thng v ng dng mng Neural. - ng dng Logic m iu phi giao thng. - Phn lp v d bo giao thng ng dng k thut gom cm m. - D bo giao thng da vo c s l thuyt Xch Markov. Mi phng php u c nhng u v nhc im ca n ty thuc vo mc h tr ca vic ng dng. - D bo da vo x l nh giao thng i hi phi lp t h thng Camera ti cc giao l Capture nh v gi v trung tm x l. - Phn loi kt xe bng gom cm m i hi phi lp t thit b o lng thu thp d liu v mt , lu lng xe, vn tc thng tin trong lnh vc d bo v iu phi giao thng :

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5. TI LIU THAM KHO [1]. Chuyn cng ngh tri thc v ng dng, Kha 3, GS.TSKH. Hong Kim, Trng H CNTT, HQG TP.HCM , 2006. [2]. Bi ging cao hc mn hc cng ngh tri thc v ng dng, GS.TSKH. Hong Kim, Trng H KHTN, HQG TP.HCM , 2004. [3]. Chuyn khai ph d liu v nh kho d liu, PGS.TS. Phc, Trng H CNTT, HQG TP.HCM, 2007. [4]. Gio trnh khai thc d liu, PGS.TS. Phc, Trng H CNTT, HQG TP.HCM, Nh xut bn HQG TP.HCM, 2006. [5]. C s l thuyt Xch Markov. [6]. Cc m hnh Xc sut v ng dng, phn 1: Xch Markov v ng dng. Nguyn Duy Tin. Nxb i hc Quc gia H ni, 2001. [7]. ng dng logic m trong iu phi giao thng. [8]. Slide gio trnh Gom cm, GS.TS. H T Bo. [9]. Christiane Stutz and Thomas A.Runkler, Classificaton and Prediction [10]. Christiane Stutz and Thomas A.Runkler, Classificaton and Prediction of road Traffic Control Using Application Specific Fuzzy Clustering, IEEE Trans Fuzzy Syst, vol 10, pp 297-308, June 2004. [11]. Liyan Zhang, Comparion of Fuzzy C-Means Algorithm and New Fuzzy Clustering and Fuzzy Merging Algorithm, Computer Science Derpartment University of Nevade, Reno, May 2005.

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