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QUN TR RI RO
TRONG NGN HNG
Mc lc i cng:
Mc 1
Mc 2
Mc 3
Mc 4
nh gi ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 5
Mc 5
M phng ri ro ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 6
Mc 6
Cc quy nh ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 7
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Mc 7
Chng 22: Qun l tnh thanh khon v khe h tn thanh khon ----------------------------7
Chng 23: Khe h li sut -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------8
Chng 24: ALM v cc chnh sch phng h ---------------------------------------------------------8
Chng 25: Ri ro la chn n --------------------------------------------------------------------------------8
Chng 26: Gi tr kinh t ca bng cn i k ton ------------------------------------------------8
Chng 27: Gi tr kinh t v ri ro li ----------------------------------------------------------------8
Chng 28: H thng nh gi chuyn khon ----------------------------------------------------------8
Chng 29: Gi chuyn khon kinh t ---------------------------------------------------------------------8
Mc 9
Mc 10 Ri ro th trng ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 9
Chng 35: VaR Delta chun --------------------------------------------------------------------------------9
Chng 36: M phng lch s v m phng gi thuyt ------------------------------------------ 10
Chng 37: M phng li sut ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 10
Chng 38: Back test, t tiu chun v Stress test ---------------------------------------------- 10
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Mc 13 Phn b vn ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 12
Chng 52: Vn Kinh t v VaR ri ro tn dng ------------------------------------------------------ 12
Chng 53: Phn b vn v ng gp ri ro---------------------------------------------------------- 12
Chng 54: Cc ng gp ri ro l ------------------------------------------------------------------------ 12
Mc lc chi tit:
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Mc 3
Nhng c ch ly lan c in
Nhng ri ro ti chnh
Cc quy nh
S ly lan thng qua chng khon ha
Ly lan tnh thanh khon
S ly lan v tnh ng chu k thng qua nhng lut v gi tr cng bng
S ly lan do tt hng tnh dng
S ly lan v tnh ng chu k trong mt ngnh cng nghip n by
Nhng h qu
Cc sn phm ti chnh
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nh gi
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Cc hm phn phi
Bin ngu nhin v hm phn phi xc sut
Hm ngc
Moment ca phn phi
Phn phi u
ng dng ca phn phi thua l v bch nh phn thua l
Bin Bernoulli
Hm ch th
Phn phi Bernoulli
Phn pi nh thc ca tng cc bin Bernoulli
Phn phi chun
Phn phi logarit chun
Phn phi Poisson
Phn phi m v thi gian v n
Phn phi Beta
Phn phi Student
Page 5
Tm tt
Ph lc tnh ton lch tr t chui thi gian
Li nhun ri rc v lin tc
Thu nhp ri rc v lin tc
M hnh dng tin chit khu
nh gi trong trng hp chc chn
Ph lc: Cng thc khai trin Taylor
Qu trnh ngu nhin
Cc qu trnh ngu nhin
Cc qu trnh ngu nhin ph bin
ng dng: phn phi gi c phiu
Nhng qu trnh li sut
Chi tit cc qu trnh ngu nhin v b Ito
nh gi v nh gi ri ro
To ra mt danh mc u t khng ri ro
nh gi trung tnh ri ro: trng hp gi c phiu
nh gi: nhng kt qu cui cng
Mt s ng dng ca k thut nh gi
nh gi n ri ro t chnh lch tn dng v xc sut trung tnh ri ro
nh gi mt quyn chn vi xc sut trung tn ri ro
M hnh Vasicek
M phng ri ro
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nhy
nh ngha nhy
Nhng nhy ph bin
nhy v cc nhn t ri ro
nhy v kim sot ri ro
bin ng
bin ng
bin ng lch s gia quyn ng u
M hnh trung bnh gia quyn ng ly tha (EWMA)
M hnh GARCH
Phng php kh nng cc i
c lng bin ng EWMA
o lng gi tr gp ri ro
M hnh phng thay i tim nng v bch phn v
Phng php VaR: ri ro th trng
VaR ri ro tn dng
VaR v Vn
Nhng ng gp ca cc php o da trn VaR
Cc phn phi thua l
Thc o thua l tim nng
Page 6
VaR v vn kinh t
Thu nhp gp ri ro (EaR)
Cc quy nh
Qun l n ti sn (ALM)
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Mc 10 Ri ro th trng
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Mc 12 Ri ro danh mc u t tn dng
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