LM PHT C BN T L THUYT N THC TIN VIT NAM

Nguyn Th Thu(*) T nm 2004 t l lm pht ca Vit Nam lin tc tng cao (9,5% nm 2004 v 8,4% nm 2005), ngi ta bt u ni nhiu n khi nim Lm pht c bn (hay cn gi l Lm pht thc cht)(1). Thm ch c nhng ngi cn tnh nhanh bng cch loi tr ngay nhm Lng thc thc phm ra khi r hng ho CPI v cng b ch s ny l ch s Lm pht c bn ca Vit Nam. Vy Lm pht c bn l g? Ti sao phi tnh ton Lm pht c bn? Lm pht c bn ca cc quc gia trn th gii ra sao? v cui cng l Vit Nam bt u nghin cu Lm pht c bn t bao gi? 1. Lm pht c bn l g? Lm pht c bn (Core Inflation): l t l lm pht th hin s thay i mc gi mang tnh cht lu di m loi b nhng thay i mang tnh tm thi nn lm pht c bn chnh l lm pht xut pht t nguyn nhn tin t (hay chnh lm pht theo quan nim ca Friedman). Do khng phi l CPI m Lm pht c bn l mt cng c c lc gip Ngn hng trung ng (NHTW) c con mt nh gi ng n v lm pht, qua mi c th ch dn cho mc tiu chnh sch tin t trong tng lai v mt khi gi c n nh s l tin cho cc ch tiu kinh t v m khc n nh v pht trin. Tuy nhin, cng cn phi lu rng cc tc ng ca chnh sch tin t sau mt tr thi gian mi c hiu lc, do s l qu mun nu cc NHTW i cho n khi t l Lm pht c bn bt u tng th mi bt u c gng lm gim sc p lm pht. Ty vo cc phng php o lng khc nhau, cc nc cng nghip tin tin c phn bit r rng gia t l lm pht c cng b rng ri theo thng l (thng l CPI, ch s gim pht GDP) v t l Lm pht c bn (c th cng b hoc khng cng b m ch s dng ni b tu tng quc gia). im khc nhau gia CPI, ch s gim pht GDP v t l Lm pht c bn l CPI v ch s gim pht GDP u do tng hp tt c cc nhn t tc ng ln Mc gi bao gm c sc p v cu, cung cng vi nhng trng ch k vng vo tng lai cn Lm pht thc cht chnh l t l lm pht c iu ho theo cc yu t sc p bn cu cng vi nhng trng ch k vng vo tng lai v loi b nhng bin ng ln gy sc bn cung. V d i vi mt s loi gi c coi l bin ng ln, kh ngu nhin m khng theo bt k mt hng no nh trng hp ca cc loi lng thc thc phm bin ng theo thi v v theo cht lng ma mng, s gia tng ca gi du th cng thng xuyn chu tc ng bi nhn t tm thi, chng hn nh thi tit; nhng thay i v gi cc mt hng do nh nc qun l, thay i cc mc thu gin thu,... Tt c nhng ci ch gy ra thay i tm thi mc gi v s bin mt sau m khng a ra c xu hng ca lm pht v c bn v lu di. Do nhng bin ng ny u l nhng bin ng nht thi v gi c v lm mo m vic o lng xu hng lm pht nn u phi loi tr. Trn thc t, s rt kh khn trong vic xc nh liu nhng bin ng v gi c ch l tm thi hay chng ko di trong mt thi gian lu hn. Chng hn nh gi c du th. S tng gi ca du th ngoi s bin ng ma v do thi tit cn ph thuc ch yu vo nhu cu trung hn v du th trn th trng quc t v do li ph thuc vo cc nhn t tng trng kinh t. Theo quan im ca cc nc nhp khu du, nhng thay i v t gi ca ng bn t so vi ng USD cng ng mt vai tr quan trng i vi s bin ng gi du. i vi cc loi thc phm theo thi v li c vn l: Trong khi c nhng bin ng ln mang tnh t bin th gi c ca cc mt hng ny vn theo xu hng gi c chung. iu ny c bit quan trng trong trng hp nu ta loi hn cc loi gi c ny ra khi CPI th s loi b c phn bin ng mang tnh cht lu di ca cc nhm ny nn s tch hn chng khi xu hng chung v do c th s lm thay i xu hng. Chnh v vy nu loi b hon ton v thng xuyn cc cu phn gi c nhin liu v lng thc thc phm thi v th xu hng lm pht khng bao gi c phn nh y . Hn na vic tch hn nhn t tm thi ra khi nhn t lu di cng rt kh khn. Do , khc phc nhc im ny nhiu NHTW ang tng cng s dng m hnh ho t l lm pht c bn nc mnh theo hai cch ch yu: mt l xc nh cc thnh phn gi c d bin ng v quy nh mt quyn s thp trong tnh ton, nh vy nhng thng tin v loi gi c ny khng hon ton mt i. Hai l chia tch s bin ng ch s gi c tiu dng, hoc cc nhm hng ho ring l cu thnh
(*)

Ngn hng Nh nc Vit Nam

CPI thnh nhng phn mang tnh tm thi v phn mang tnh thng xuyn v lu di, trong phn c tnh lu di s biu th xu hng lm pht v t l lm pht khi s c xc nh tng ng cho k hn di hn 1 nm. 2. Lm pht c bn ca mt s quc gia trn th gii Xu hng t nhiu nm nay trn th gii c bit nhng nc cng nghip tin tin nh M hay cc nc EU xem xt t l Lm pht c bn lm c s cho vic iu hnh chnh sch tin t. Tuy nhin, tu tng nc m nhng iu chnh c bit v phm vi gii hn tnh ton CPI ph thuc vo iu kin hon cnh v khi nim ca tng c quan thng k trung ng ca mi nc. V d: NHTW Anh ch loi b cc khon chi ph tr li mua nh tr chm v nu li sut cho vay ngn hn tng s dn n s gia tng tm thi ca lm pht; Ngoi ra trnh cc tc ng ngoi mong mun ca chnh sch ti chnh ln chnh sch tin t, cc NHTW Canada, Phn lan v Thy in u loi b yu t thu gin thu ra khi t l lm pht c bn; NHTW Thy in cn loi tr gi cc loi nhin liu v nhng bin ng gi hng nhp khu ra khi ch s ny v Thy in l nc c t l nhp khu cao; NHTW M, Canaa, Australia, ECB loi b ch s gi nhin liu v cc loi thc phm theo thi v cha ch bin hoc C quan thng k lin minh Chu u loi b gi c thc phm, ru, thuc l v nhin liu (tham kho bng trang sau). Mc ch ca vic loi tr nhin liu, thc phm theo thi v trong chng mc no c thuc l v ru ti khu vc s dng ng Euro l lun c c ch s ng tin cy hn v xu hng lm pht. Mc d tn ti nhiu cch o lng khc nhau, nhng cc nh ngha khng phi ty tin, u cng vy, tng ng sau khi nim lm pht c bn l nhng bin ng nht thi v gi c lm mo m vic o lng xu hng lm pht chung u phi loi tr. Tuy nhin t l lm pht c bn khng phi l mt ch s hng u v s thay i xu hng gi c v lm pht c bn ng nhin l rt quan trng i vi nhng nh hoch nh chnh sch, nhng i vi cng chng iu m h quan tm li chnh l Mc gi chung (CPI) v chnh sch tin lng. Khi , khng cn cch no khc hn l phi quan tm n nhiu ch s kinh t khc. Do c t l lm pht cng b v t l lm pht c bn u c nhng li ch v cc mt hn ch, tt nht l nn theo di c hai ch s ny nh gi y v tnh hnh lm pht hay n nh gi c th trng. i vi mt s nc trn th gii, nhng thng tin v xu hng rt quan trng vn ang cn b b qua trong cch tnh lm pht (k c lm pht c bn). Do vy, ch s ny phi thng xuyn c xem xt v iu chnh li cch tnh cho ph hp tnh hnh thc t tng nc, tng khu vc. 3. Qu trnh nghin cu v tnh ton lm pht c bn ca Vit Nam: Bt u t nm 1998 cho n nay Vit Nam din bin ca mc cung tin (M2) khng cn ng vi quy lut vn ng ca Ch s gi tiu dng, thm ch cn ngc quy lut ( th). Tuy nhin ring din bin ch s gi ca nhm lng thc thc phm (LT-TP) lun theo st ch s gi tiu dng. iu ny c gii thch l do cc cn sc pha cung tc ng n CPI mnh hn cc cn sc pha cu c ngha l s thay i ca mc cung tin M2 tc ng khng mnh bng s thay i ca gi c lng thc - thc phm. Bt u t hin tng thi tit bt thng El Nino v La Nina nm 1998 lm sn lng lng thc ton cu gim mnh y ch s gi lng thc - thc phm (LT- TP) tng cao nn tc ng mnh ti CPI. n giai on 1999-2001 Vit Nam tri qua mt giai on lm pht rt thp, thm ch c gim pht (1999: 0,1%; 2000:-0,6%; 2001: 0,8%) trong khi chnh sch tin t li lin tc ni lng trong giai on ny, c th li sut cho vay gim t mc 14,4%/nm (1998) xung cn 9%/nm (2001). Nguyn nhn ch yu l do gi LT,TP v nhiu nng sn khc gim mnh trn th trng th gii nh thc, go, c ph, cao su th hin bi ch s gi xut khu LT-TP ca Vit Nam lin tc gim mnh: 1999: -6%; 2000: -9,6%; 2001: -14,2%. Hin tng ny xy ra khng ring g i vi Vit Nam m c th gii. Do c th kt lun lm pht lc ny ch yu xut pht t pha cung nn khng cn l ch bo tt cho vic iu hnh chnh sch tin t (CSTT) v ng nhin s lin quan n vic hoch nh cc chnh sch kinh t v m khc. Xut pht t nhng bt cp trn, thng 7/2000 ti Hi tho v ti lm pht c bn v cch d bo lm pht do Trung tm o to v Nghin cu ca cc NHTW ng Nam (SEACEN) t chc cho cc quan chc ca cc NHTW cc nc Chu ti Malaysia (ch yu l cc nc ang pht trin nh Innxia, Malayxia, Mng C, Npan, Philipine, Thi Lan, Trung Quc, Vit Nam v Srilanca), tt c cc thnh vin tham d hi tho u nhn thc c s cn thit v tm quan trng ca ch s Lm pht c bn trong vic iu hnh chnh sch tin t ni ring v cng tc iu hnh chnh sch v m ni chung ca mt quc gia.

? Vit Nam, t nm 2001 n nay, Tng cc Thng k v Ngn hng Nh nc (NHNN) nhn c s h tr k thut ca Chnh ph Thy S v nhng kin thc c bn v phng php tnh Lm pht c bn. Sau thi gian chun b kin thc v s liu, ngy 03/06/2004, ti cuc hp Hi ng T vn CSTT Quc gia, trn c s kin ca NHNN, Ch tch Hi ng - Ph Th tng thng trc Nguyn Tn Dng giao Tng cc Thng k ch tr, phi hp vi NHNN v cc B, Ngnh c lin quan nghin cu xc nh t l lm pht c bn v iu ny c th hin ti Thng bo s 08/HTCTTQG ngy 16/06/2004. Hin nay TCTK v NHNN ang trong qu trnh hon thin vic tnh ton ch s Lm pht c bn v nu mi vic din ra nh theo ng k hoch th bt u t nm 2006 Vit Nam c th chuyn sang giai on cng b ni b v kt qu th nghim tnh ton lm pht c bn. C th ni vic tnh ton lm pht c bn l kh cng phu v phc tp i hi kin thc cng nh kinh nghim phn tch v nh gi xu hng bin ng ca gi c v c s quan trng nht tnh ton t l lm pht c bn chnh l cht lng chun xc v tnh kp thi ca cc s liu thng k v gi c c tp hp v x l trong tnh ton. Do nu cho rng ch cn loi tr nhm lng thc thc phm trong 10 nhm hng ho cp I ra khi CPI tnh lm pht c bn th kt qu tnh ton ny khng th coi l t l LPCB m ch c th coi l t l lm pht gi cc mt hng phi Lng thcthc phm v nhng l do sau: Th nht: Quyn s nhm lng thc thc phm ca Vit nam kh cao: Vit Nam, Lng thc - thc phm l mt trong 10 nhm hng ha ca r hng ha dch v tiu dng v y l nhm c quyn s ln nht (47,9%). Trong khi trn th gii, ngay c nhng nc pht trin, do i sng v thu nhp mc cao nn chi tiu cho nhm Lng thc - thc phm l nh (c ngha l quyn s ca nhm Lng thc -thc phm nh) nhng qua tham kho kinh nghim cc nc mc d quyn s nhm lng thc thc phm l nh nhng cng cha thy c quc gia no loi tr trc tip c nhm Lng-thc thc phm khi tnh LPCB v c cc nhm c loi tr cng cha c nc no loi tr qu 30% quyn s. Mt khc, theo s liu thng k, thu nhp bnh qun u ngi tnh theo sc mua tng ng (PPP) ca Vit Nam d ang tng nhng vn mc thp l 1996 USD/nm ti thi im nm 2001. Nu so snh ch trong khi ASEAN, th thu nhp bnh qun PPP ca Vit Nam ch cao hn Lo (1575 USD/nm) v Campuchia (1446 USD/nm). Do , li cng khng th loi b nhm Lng thcthc phm. Th hai: Loi b c nhm Lng thc thc phm th c th va loi b nhm, va b st: V nguyn tc, tnh LPCB th cn loi b cc nhm hng c gi c thay i t bin, nht thi. Do , nhm loi b thng ch l nhm cp III m khng th l nhm cp I. V d: Nht, Ty ban Nha loi tr nhm Lng thc cha ch bin; Anh ch loi tr Li sut cm c; M loi tr Lng thc v Nng lng, nhng khng loi tr Thc phm. Trong trng hp ca Vit Nam, nhm Lng thc thc phm (nhm cp I) bao gm nhiu nhm nh khc nhau (3 nhm cp II hoc 20 nhm cp III); ng thi mi nhm nh cng c mc bin ng gi c khc nhau. Do , nu loi b c nhm ln Lng thc-thc phm gm 20 nhm hng cp III m mi nhm ny li c mc bin ng gi khc nhau, nh th c th li va loi nhm nhng nhm nh khng c nhng thay i t bin, li va b st nhng nhm khc c nhng thay i t bin nhng khng nm trong nhm Lng thc- thc phm, v d nh xng du. Th ba, loi b hon ton c nhm lng thc, thc phm c th loi b nhm c thnh phn Lm pht c bn: Trong nhm lng thc - thc phm, bn cnh nhng bin ng gi mang tnh nht thi, cng khng loi tr kh nng c s bin ng gi mang tnh lu di. Do , nu loi b hon ton c nhm Lng thc -thc phm th s loi b c thnh phn bin ng gi mang tnh cht lu di v c bn. Th t: Liu quyn s nhm lng thc thc phm ca Vit Nam hin nay l 47,9% c qu cao? i vi Vit Nam, qu trnh iu chnh quyn s nhm Lng thc - thc phm ca TCTK nh sau: Trc thi im thng 7/2001, quyn s ca nhm Lng thc - thc phm cn mc 60,86%. Vi mc cao nh vy, mt s B, Ngnh c kin vi TCTK v vic xem xt li cho ph hp v quyn s cc nhm hng tnh ton CPI c xc nh t t kho st t nm 1994. Trong khi , t nm 1994-2000 nn kinh t Vit Nam c nhng bc tng trng mnh, thu nhp ca cc h gia nh cng tng ln, nn t trng chi tiu cho lng thc thc phm ca cc h gia nh cng gim

xung. n nm 2000 TCTK tin hnh mt t kho st mi, theo quyn s ca nhm Lng thc-thc phm c iu chnh gim xung mc 47,9% t thng 7/2001. Vi quyn s mi 47,9% i vi nhm Lng thc - Thc phm, c kin cho rng mc ny vn cn cao. Tuy nhin, hin nay trn 70% dn s Vit Nam l nng dn, thu nhp cn thp, nn t trng chi tiu cho lng thc thc phm chim a s. Hn na, ngay i vi khu vc thnh th cng rt nhiu h gia nh c chi tiu cho Lng thc thc phm hng thng cng phi khong trn di 30%. Mt khc, c c con s ny, trong nm 2000 TCTK trc tip iu tra c cu chi tiu ca cc h gia nh, trong khi cc kin khc ch da trn s phn on. LM PHT C BN CNG B V S DNG NI B CA MT S QUC GIA TRN TH GII Quc gia Canada Lm pht c bn cng b chnh thc CPI loi tr trc tip lng thc, nng lng v thu gin thu Lm pht c bn s dng ni b - CPI loi tr trc tip 8 hng mc hay bin ng nht (t trng 16%) - CPI xc nh gi trung tm - CPI loi tr c sp xp (t trng 15%)

Thi Lan

CPI loi tr trc tip lng thc ti sng v gi nng lng (t trng 23%) Ch s lm pht c bn ca Kho Bc

- CPI loi tr trc tip (t trng 10%)

- CPI loi tr trc tip - CPI xc nh gi trung tm

New Zealand Singapore

CPI loi tr trc tip tin li phi tr CPI loi tr trc tip chi ph v nh v giao thng ng b ca t nhn - CPI loi tr trc tip cc mt hng bin ng (t trng 30%) - CPI loi tr c sp xp (t trng 15%) - CPI xc nh gi trung tm

Nht bn

CPI loi tr trc tip hng lng thc ti sng CPI loi tr trc tip 9 hng mc (lng thc, rau v hoa qu, giao thng th), t trng 21,2%. CPI loi tr trc tip lng thc v nng lng Ch s gi bn l (RPI) loi tr li sut cm c CPI loi tr c sp xp 20% mt hng c bin ng gi gim nhiu nht; v 8% mt hng c bin ng gi tng nhiu nht CPI loi tr trc tip lng thc nng nghip, dch v cng v giao thng CPI loi tr trc tip thu gin thu CPI loi tr trc tip lng thc cha ch bin CPI loi tr trc tip rau, hoa qu v nng

Peru M Anh Chi l Colombia c Ty Ban Nha H Lan

- CPI loi tr trc tip (t trng 15%) - CPI xc nh gi trung tm

Quc gia Ireland B o Nha Philippines Thu in

Lm pht c bn cng b chnh thc lng CPI loi tr trc tip tin li cm c CPI loi tr trc tip tin li cm c, gi lng thc v nng lng CPI loi tr trc tip lng thc cha ch bin v nng lng CPI loi tr trc tip go, ng, rau v hoa qu, du, du ho, du diesel, du ho chng ct kerosene, du kh ho lng (t trng 18,4%) CPI loi tr trc tip thu gin thu, gi mt s nhin liu v hng nhp khu

Lm pht c bn s dng ni b

(1) Tm dch t ting Anh "Underlying (Core) inflation rate" hay cn gi l Lm pht c bn Ti liu tham kho 1. Core inflation - NHTW Thy s, BHF 2. Chuyn kho "Ch s gi tiu dng" - Thng 4/2000 3. Tin t ngn hng th trng ti chnh - Frederic S.Mishkin 4. Bn tin ca IMF