Vin Kin trc, Quy hoch th v Nng thn B Xy dng

QUY HOCH XY DNG NG PH VI BIN I KH HU V NC BIN DNG

TS.KTS. Lu c Cng Gim c Trung tm Nghin cu v Quy hoch Mi trng th-nng thn

H Ni, 18/10/2011

Thc trng v NH HNG PHT TRIN th ViT NAM

Thc trng pht trin th

Nm 1998, Th tng Chnh ph ph duyt nh hng pht trin h thng th Vit Nam n nm 2020 - Cc th trung tm cc cp c phn b hp l trn 10 vng th ho c trng: vng KTT Bc B v B sng Hng; vng KTT Nam B v ng Nam b; vng KTT min Trung v Trung Trung B; vng B sng Cu Long; vng Nam Trung B; vng Ty Nguyn; vng Bc trung b; vng Cao Bng - Lng Sn - H Bc - Bc Thi; vng Lo Cai, Yn Bi H Giang - Tuyn Quang - Vnh Ph v vng Ty Bc.

Xu h-ng pht trin th theo 10 vng th ha

(nh h-ng trng pht trin th th pht t Thc Quy hoch t ng ph ph duyt ti Quyt nh s 10/199
- Mng li th c nc c hnh thnh v pht trin trn c s cc th trung tm
- Cc th trung tm ln c t chc thnh cc chm th
dn s cc th chnh n nm 2020

Thc trng pht trin th

Cho n nay, h thng th quc gia ngy cng tng c v s lng v cht lng th

Mng li th c m rng, t 500 th (1985), 629 (1999) ln 755 th (2010). n nay, c nc c:

- 2 th c bit - 10 th loi 1 - 12 th loi 2 - 47 th loi 3 - 50 th loi 4 - 644 th loi 5

Mt dn s nm 2007

Bn h thng th nm 2007

nh hng pht trin h thng th n nm 2025, tm nhn n nm 2050 (QD445/TTg, 7/4/2009)

- Khc phc nhng tn ti yu km ca qu trnh th ha hin nay (nh ngun lc xy dng th yu km; h tng th thiu ng b; di dn nng thn, an ninh lng thc thc phm b e da; nhim mi trng v mt cn bng sinh thi; cht lng quy hoch yu km, thiu tm nhn; nng lc qun l th cn hn ch) - Nhng cng ang i mt vi nhng thch thc, tr ngi mi trong bi cnh bin i kh hu ton cu

NG LC HNH THNH V PHT TRIN TH GN VI CHIN LC BIN

- Hai hnh lang Kinh t - th ng lc ch o theo h-ng Bc Nam: + Hnh lang duyn hi gn vi chin l-c bin + Hnh lang -ng H Ch Minh; - Mt hnh lang vnh ai bin gii (Vit Nam - Trung quc, Vit Nam - Lo, Vit Nam - Cmphuchia) gn vi kinh t ca khu v an ninh quc phng; - Su trc hnh lang Kinh t th ng lc lin kt h tr theo h-ng ng - Ty gn vi cc cc tng tr-ng quc gia.

Bn phn vng kinh t v cc khu kinh t ven bin vit nam

u tin pht trin cc vng kinh t trng im, cc vng th ln v cc khu kinh t tng hp ng vai tr l cc tng trng ch o cp quc gia - C nc hin c 15 khu kinh t ven bin - D kin b sung thm 3 khu kinh t ven bin

KHU KINH T NH V - CT HI - HI PHNG KHU KINH T THI BNH - THI BNH KHU KINH T NINH C - NAM NH KHU KINH T NG NAM NGH AN - NGH AN

KHU KINH T HN LA - QUNG BNH KHU KINH T NG NAM - QUNG TR

KHU KINH T NH AN - TR VINH

KHU KINH T NM CN - C MAU

NH HNG PHT TRIN H THNG GIAO THNG

Trn trc dc Bc - Nam: - Quc l 1A t Hu Ngh Quan n Nm Cn - -ng H Ch Minh t Cao Bng n t Mi (C Mau) - -ng b cao tc Bc - Nam t Lng Sn n C Mau - Tuyn -ng b ven bin Vit Nam (i st bin)

97

a im cc cng nc su ang pht trin v khi Quy hoch pht trin h lng hng ha hin nay thng cng bin Vit Nam n nm 2020 v nh hng n nm 2030: - Cng tng hp quc gia: + Cng trung chuyn quc t: Vn Phong - Khnh Ha; + Cng ca ng quc t: Hi Phng, B Ra - Vng Tu; + Cng u mi khu vc: Hn Gai, Nghi Sn, Ngh An, Sn Dng, Vng ng, Dung Qut, Quy Nhn, Nha Trang, Ba Ngi, thnh ph H Ch Minh, ng Nai, Cn Th. - Cc cng a phng - Cng chuyn dng:
Quyt nh 2190/Q-TTg/2009

Pht trin th gn vi kinh t bin Phn vng th ven bin Vit Nam gm cc tiu vng duyn hi c bn sau: Vng duyn hi Bc B: (1) Duyn hi Qung Ninh (2) Duyn hi ng bng sng Hng. Vng duyn hi Trung B: (3) Duyn hi Thanh Ngh Tnh (4) Duyn hi Bnh Tr Thin (5) Duyn hi Nng - Qung Nam Qung Ngi (6) Duyn hi Bnh nh - Ph Yn Khnh Ha. Vng duyn hi Nam B: (7) Duyn hi t Ninh Thun - TPHCM (8) Duyn hi Ca chu th BSCL (9) Duyn hi Ty C Mau - Kin Giang.

9 VNG DUYN HI V CC TH CHNH

Tng dn s: 43,835 triu

Dn s Thi: 13,678 Triu

T l TH: 31,2% S Th: 323 28 tnh/thnh

VNG DUYN HI QUNG NINH

VNG DUYN HI NG BNG S.HNG

Dn s Thi: 49 v T l TH: 44.6% S Th: 15

Dn s Thi: 1,35 triu T l TH: 20,4% S Th: 46

VNG DUYN HI THANH - NGH TNH

VNG DUYN HI BNH - TR - THIN

Dn s Thi: 64 vn T l TH: 24.3% S Th: 31

Dn s Thi: 84,7 vn T l TH: 10.5% S Th: 69

VNG DUYN HI .NNG - Q.NAM Q.NGI

Dn s Thi: 1,14 triu T l TH: 31,8% S Th: 26

VNG DUYN HI B.NH - P.YN K.HA

T l TH: 29,4% S Th: 32

Dn s Thi: 1,06 triu

VNG DUYN HI T N.THUN N TPHCM

VNG DUYN HI TAM GIC CHU TH SNG CU LONG

Dn s Thi: 6,47 triu T l TH: 71,6% S Th: 35 Dn s Thi: 98,8 vn T l TH: 15,9% S Th: 46

VNG DUYN HI C MAU - K.GIANG

Dn s Thi: 69,3 vn T l TH: 23,5% S Th: 23

BIN I KH HU V TC NG N PHT TRIN TH BN VNG, THCH THC MI TRONG PHT TRIN TH

Vit Nam l mt trong 4 nc chu nh hng ln nht ca hin tng kh hu cc oan trong hai thp k tr li y v ng th 3 nu ch tnh ring nm 2008 (Bo co v ch s ri ro kh hu ton cu 2009, Germanwatch, COP 15, Copenhagen, Denmark)
The trend of the rainfall within 1970-2007 The trend of the average temperature within 1970-2007 The trend of the maximum temperature within 1970-2007

22
Zone 2

Zone 1

22
Zone 2 Zone 3

Zone 1

22
Zone 2 Zone 3

Zone 1

Zone 3

20
Zone 4

mm/38 years 650 550 450 350 250

Zone 5

20
Zone 4

C/38 years 1.3 1.2 1.1 1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0

20
Zone 4

C/38 years 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1 0.8

18

18

18

16

150 50

16
Zone 5

16
Zone 5

0.6 0.4
14
Zone 6

14

Zone 6

-50 -150 -250 -350

14

Zone 6

0.2 0 -0.2 -0.4

12
Zone 7

12
Zone 7

12
Zone 7

Zone 8

Zone 8

Zone 8

10
Note: The values on the contours, which are the average values for an area with size 1 x 1 degree

10
Note: The values on the contours, which are the average values for an area with size 1 x 1 degree

10
Note: The values on the contours, which are the average values for an area with size 1 x 1 degree

104

106

108

104

106

108

104

106

108

Cc biu hin ca bin i kh hu ti Vit Nam

Thuc et al. IHM, 2009

3m

2m

Kch bn nc bin dng do B TN&MT cng b cho thy: Gia th k XXI mc nc bin c th dng thm 28 - 30 33cm, n cui th k XXI mc nc bin dng thm t 65 - 75 - 100cm so vi thi k 1980 1999.

1m

4m

5m

Mc tc ng do nc bin dng
SLR Scenario (m) Inundated Area (km2) (%) 0.25 0.5 1 6,237 14,034 30,116 1.9 4.2 9.1 Population Affected (Mill) 2.0 4.7 13

(%) 2.4 5.7 16

1.5
2 3 4 5

40,242
45,479 50,908 53,909 57,447

12
14 15 16 17

20
25 30 34 37

24
30 36 41 45

Ngun: Trn Thc v cng s

Vi ng b bin di hn 3400km, hn 50% dn s sinh sng khu vc ven bin s chu tc ng trc tip ca BKH ni chung v nc bin dng ni ring.

PHN B DN C KHU VC DUYN HI

Hn 300 th duyn hi / 755 th chu nh hng ca BKH Hn 100 th chu nh hng trc tip bi BKH v NBD Ngoi ra nhng khu kinh t tp trung (l cc th trong tng lai) cng s b nh hng.

Khu vc ven bin d b tn thng

ng bng sng Cu Long l mt trong nhng vng chu thit hi nng n nht trn tri t do tc ng ca BkH, nc bin dng.

Nc dng cao lm st l ca bin phng Nh Mt, TP Bc Liu

Ngp lt l hu qu u tin dn n nhng h ly nh hng n pht trin th bn vng - Nhng thay i v ch ma v cc hin tng thi tit cc oan s dn ti tng tn sut v mc nghim trng ca l lt nhng khu vc c lng ma gia tng. - Pht trin th lm tng t l din tch b mt c kh nng thm nc b b tng ha; suy gim din tch mt nc do san lp, ln chim, hoc x thi cng lm gim kh nng tr nc ma v lm tng nguy c ng lt ti cc th.

Bn hin trng ngp lt khu vc H Ni ngy 7/11/2008

NGP LT TI H NI

NGP LT TI TPHCM

nh hng n c im cu trc khung thin nhin th:

- Thay i c im a hnh, a mo th. - Suy gim ti nguyn thin nhin nh gim din tch t, gim ti nguyn nc ngt. - Thay i h sinh thi th ven bin.
Thay i ti nguyn thin nhin v h sinh thi ven b Xi mn, st l gy suy gim din tch t

Ngp lt ti ng bng chu th sng Cu Long

 bin Ty (x Khnh Tin, huyn U Minh, tnh C Mau) b st l nghim trng do tc ng ca BKH.

Hin tng nc bin dng s lm ngp lt nhiu vng t thp

nh hng n cu trc khng gian th (Khu cng nghip, khu nh , h thng cc trung tm)

nh hng n mng li cng trnh h tng k thut v h Ngp lt tng x hi th: ti Qung Nam - Gy ngp ng, l lt lm gim thot nc trong th, gy qu ti i vi h thng thot v x l nc thi.
- Thay i khng gian mt nc, cng vin cy xanh, qung trng. - Ph hng h thng c s h tng k thut (nh ca, h thng ng giao thng, nh my, bn cng - nh hng ti khng gian ngm th Ngp lt ti thnh ph Nng Ngp lt ti Cn Th

Ngp lt ti ng bng sng Cu Long

Bin i kh hu - nhng thch thc mi trong pht trin th

- Vn bin i kh hu v nc bin dng cng nh thin tai, bo lt ngy cng din bin phc tp v kh d bo - Nhng nguy c ri ro ngy cng tng do bin i kh hu nh hng mnh m n chin lc pht trin th Vit Nam - Trong bi cnh nn kinh t ang pht trin, a phn cc th, c bit l cc th ven bin v th min ni, c tnh d b tn thng cao, nng lc thch ng thp

- Hu nh cha tch hp v cha c phng php lng ghp cc vn bin i kh hu trong cc chng trnh, quy hoch pht trin th
- Nhiu th c xy dng v pht trin trong giai on trc y s gp kh khn trong cng tc ci to, chnh trang th ng ph vi bin i kh hu

Bin i kh hu - nhng thch thc mi trong pht trin th

- Nhiu th, c bit l cc th duyn hi chu nh hng ca iu kin t nhin bt li (ma hn b xm nhp mn, ma ma b ngp ng do l lt v triu cng) v ngy cng khc lit hn do bin i kh hu, nc bin dng v tc ng ca con ngi (cc d n thy in thng ngun, cc tuyn ng chn ngang dng chy, thu hp cc vc cha nc t nhin) - Trc bi cnh bin i kh hu v nc bin dng, tc th ha nhanh, c bit ti cc th duyn hi Vit Nam li cng lm tng cc ri ro trong pht trin, mu thun vi cc nguyn tc gim thiu tc ng do BKH v nc bin dng. - Vic pht trin nhanh chng ti cc khu vc ven bin dn n nhng xung t nht nh (gia cc chc nng th vi chc nng t nhin ca bi bi, vng thot l, s dng nc v cc chc nng sinh thi)

QUY HOCH XY DNG NG PH VI BIN I KH HU, CC VN T RA

Cc nhim v trng tm ng ph vi BKH ca ngnh xy dng giai on 2011 - 2015

- nh gi tc ng ca bin i kh hu v nc bin dng n h tng k thut th, s dng nng lng; - Xc nh cc gii php ng ph vi bin i kh hu v nc bin dng;

- Tch hp cc vn bin i kh hu vo cc chin lc, chng trnh, k hoch v quy hoch;

- iu chnh quy hoch h tng k thut, cc khu dn c th theo cc kch bn bin i kh hu; - xut cc ni dung cn b sung trong cc tiu chun, quy chun v hng dn k thut xy dng ng ph vi bin i kh hu.

Ghi ch: Quyt nh 158/2008/Q - TTg

Quy hoch xy dng c tm quan trng c bit trong cng tc ng ph vi bin i kh hu

- Vit Nam mi bt u t vn lng ghp ng ph vi bin i kh hu trong cc chin lc, quy hoch, k hoch. - Quy hoch xy dng, vi vai tr l mt cng c t chc khng gian th, l im khi u c bit quan trng cho lng ghp ng ph vi BKH, hng ti pht trin th bn vng - Thch ng vi bin i kh hu, c bit ti khu vc ven bin l mt vn mi v c th p dng cc nguyn tc c bn ca cng tc lp quy hoch khng gian. - ng thi, cc nguyn tc ca quy hoch khng gian cng cn phi thch ng, thay i sao cho ph hp vi qu trnh xy dng v p dng cc chnh sch thch ng bn vng nhm gim nh cc tc ng tiu cc ca BKH ln pht trin th.

Thc trng lng ghp ng ph BKH trong QHXD

- Thch ng v gim nh ri ro trc thin tai, l lt khng phi l lnh vc mi trong quy hoch th, nhng mi trong bi cnh bin i kh hu - nh gi mi trng chin lc vi t cch l cng c lng ghp bo v mi trng trong QHXD thc hin hn 10 nm. - Tuy nhin, cch tip cn hin nay ca MC ng ph vi BKH cha mnh, MC mi ch nh gi tc ng ca pht trin th n kh hu, mi trng, cha nh gi tc ng ca BKH n pht trin th.

- Cc mc tiu ng ph ri ro (phng chng l, ngp ng, triu cng, xm nhp mn) cng c t ra trong QHXD. Nhng cch tip cn, phng php lun cha hp l, cha ton din trong bi cnh ton cu ha v BKH
- Hng lot cc d n thot nc c trin khai khp c nc l thc s cn thit, nhng cha hiu qu do mang tnh b ng trc ri ro v thiu quy hoch tng th, c tm nhn v tnh thch ng vi BKH

Cc vn t ra vi QHXD trong ng ph vi BKH

- Cc gii php thit k, thc hin v qun l quy hoch c xy dng trong s tch bit, rt thiu s lng ghp. - Phng php tip cn n ngnh ca quy hoch hin nay khng th p ng c yu cu mi trong bi cnh nguy c t s khc lit ca thin tai, l lt tng ln do bin i kh hu - Cc cng c lng ghp a ngnh nhm xy dng v vn hnh mt khung khng gian thng nht li rt hn ch v khng pht trin

- Cc n quy hoch th ta thng c khung thi gian quy hoch cho khong 20 - 25 nm, trong khi rt nhiu nhng tc ng ca BKH ch thc s r nt sau 50 - 100 nm.
- Cch tip cn ca quy hoch th hin nay xoay quanh trc pht trin cha chuyn sang xoay quanh trc bo tn quy lut t nhin gn vi pht trin

V d i vi vn nc trong th

- Cc knh mng t nhin v nhng khu vc thp ang b ln chim v lp y ba bi phc v cho th ha, ngn cn ng dn dng chy ca nc mt v ph hy chc nng lu gi nc ca cc h ao. - Kh nng hp th t nhin ca t b gim trong khi din tch b mt b tng ha ngy cng tng - dn ti hu qu l tc dng chy nc mt gia tng trong khi mc nc ngm suy gim, h thng cng thot nc ma ca cc th u qu ti. - Nhiu bin php i ph vi vic ngp lt do ma hay triu dng ch yu mang tnh b ng v cha chy v nhng khu vc nh h nc, sng ngi hay knh dn cn bo v tr thnh cc khu th, nh khng cn kh nng bo tn na

Quy hoch thch ng vi BKH - S cn thit phi c mt cch tip cn mi trong QHXD
- Cc vn t ra vi quy hoch xy dng nu trn i hi mt phng php tip cn phc tp ton din hn ca QHXD - Phi c mt quy hoch chin lc tng th, di hn 50 hay 100 nm ti, v vn bin i kh hu phi gn vi quy hoch . y l vn cn m nht v cn c xem xt thm trong nh hng quy hoch tng th h thng th n nm 2025, tm nhn n nm 2050 c Th tng ph duyt.

Mt s yu cu ca Quy hoch thch ng vi BKH

- Lng ghp cc phng php tip cn thit k, k thut v qun l ring bit trong mt khung quy hoch hp nht (v d: quy hoch thot nc lin kt vi quy hoch cy xanh, quy hoch lu vc sng)
- Gii quyt vn tc ng ca BKH i vi pht trin th theo hng a ngnh, a chiu, a giai on v tng tc vi nhau. - Quy hoch thch ng phi to iu kin cho phn tch tng hp v im mnh, im yu, c hi v thch thc m mt vng lnh th phi i mt vi nguy c bin i kh hu;

- Quy hoch thch ng phi lp y khong cch gia cc ngnh, gia cc chuyn ngnh, gia kin thc vi chnh sch bng cch thit lp cc chng trnh v d n chin lc c kh nng ng vai tr nh nhng cng c lng ghp; - Cho php v thit lp knh thng tin lin lc gia cc ngnh, cc chuyn ngnh, cc cp ra quyt nh, nhng ngi c trch nhim v cc bn lin quan; to ra khung phi hp gia cc c quan xc nh bn cht v quy m nh hng ca BKH;

Cc yu cu ca Quy hoch thch ng vi BKH

- Mc tiu ca quy hoch thch ng phi xy dng cc bin php c th nhm ng ph v gim thiu tc ng ca bin i kh hu, vi trng tm l vn l lt theo 2 cch tip cn: phi kt cu v kt cu - p dng ng thi 2 cch tip cn trong l thuyt quy hoch: tip cn theo chuyn ngnh ( th, cp nc, thot nc) v tip cn theo i tng (ngi ngho, gii, im dn c, i tng nhy cm) - Kin to cc hnh thc th ha mi v hnh thi th mi theo hng thch ng, thn thin vi mi trng, bo v ti nguyn v nng cao cht lng khng gian sng

Tng hp mt s chnh sch thch ng mc nc bin dng

Cc chin lc trng tm thch ng vi nc bin dng - Mc tiu thch ng Vn lin quan - Ngn chn tn tht - Gim thiu tn tht - Chia s tn tht - Thay i hot ng b nh hng - Thay i v tr cc hot ng - Thu thp thng tin v a ra nhn thc - Quy hoch v thit k - p dng - Kim tra - nh gi - Bo v - Ni - S tn (hoc) - Cng c v tr - Ln bin - Qun l t chc li - Khng can thip

- Gim thiu tn tht

- Chia s tn tht

- Thay i hot ng b nh hng

- nh gi ri ro - Phn tch chi ph, li ch - Cc phng n nc bin dng - nh gi la chn chnh sch lin quan ti nc bin dng da trn cc mc tiu thch ng, tnh d b tn thng v t nhin ca vng ven bin cng nh hot ng pht trin ca con ngi

TRN TRNG CM N