TRNG C KT CAO THNG

Khoa, B mn: Kinh t

CNG HO X HI CH NGHA VIT

NAM
c lp T do Hnh phc
-------------------------

TM TT HC PHN
1. Tn hc phn: XC SUT THNG K.
2. M s hc phn:
3. B mn ph trch: Kinh t.
4. i tng hc: Sinh vin h cao ng ngnh k ton.
5. Mc ch:
-

Trang b cho sinh vin cc kin thc v k nng v cc khi nim: Nguyn l m, hon v ,
chnh hp, t hp, cch tnh bng nguyn l cng v nhn, quy tc chnh hp, t hp, nh thc
Newton, cc khi nim: Php th, bin c, xc sut, xc sut c iu kin, nh ngha i
lng ngu nhin,vect ngu nhin, hm phn phi, mt s phn phi thng gp. Cc khi
nim: K vng, phng sai, phng sai mu hiu chnh
6. Yu cu t c sau khi hc:

Sau khi hc xong hc phn ny, sinh vin phi t c nhng kin thc v k nng sau:
- Lm c cc bi ton v nguyn l m, hon v , chnh hp, t hp, nguyn l cng v
nhn, quy tc chnh hp, t hp, nh thc Newton, php th, bin c, xc sut, xc sut c iu
kin, nh ngha i lng ngu nhin,vect ngu nhin, hm phn phi, mt s phn phi
thng gp.
- Phn bit c cc khi nim: K vng, phng sai, phng sai mu hiu chnhnh hi
c nhng kin thc v k nng v lnh vc ton ng dng
7. Thi lng hc phn: L thuyt: 23 tit; Bi tp : 22 tit.
8. Ni dung hc phn: Hc phn cha ng
- Cc khi nim: Nguyn l m, hon v, chnh hp, t hp.
- Vn dng c cch tnh bng nguyn l cng v nhn, quy tc chnh hp, t hp, nh thc
Newton.
- Gii quyt c cc bi ton chn v bi ton t hp.
- Nm c cc khi nim: Php th, bin c, xc sut, xc sut c iu kin.
- Lm c cc bi tp tnh xc sut.
- Vn dng c cc cng thc tnh xc sut: Cng thc cng xc sut v cng thc nhn xc

sut.
- Gii quyt c cc bi ton kinh t da vo bi ton xc sut.
- Nm c nh ngha i lng ngu nhin,vect ngu nhin, hm phn phi, mt s phn
phi thng gp.
- Nm c cc khi nim: K vng, phng sai, phng sai mu hiu chnh
Tnh c k vng, phng sai mu,
- Nm c cc phng php ly mu, cc c trng mu, cc sai s, cch tnh.
- Tnh c k vng, phuong sai mu, cc sai s.,
- Gii quyt c vn : Cung cp v bc u x l s liu thng k.
- Nm c cc loi sai lm khi kim nh .
- Lm c: Cc bi tan kim nh gi thit n gin.
- ng dng kim nh vo cc bi ton kinh t.
9. Hc phn lin quan cn hc trc hc phn ny: Ton cao cp.
10.

Hc phn lin quan hc sau khi hc hc phn ny:

Sinh vin s vn dng khi hc cc mn nguyn l thng k, thng k kinh t, ng dng cho cc
hc phn trong phn chuyn nghnh.
11.

Gio trnh s dng:

[1] u Th Cp, Xc sut thng k, NXB Thng K, 2007.

12. Ti liu tham kho:
[1] Nguyn Duy Tin - Nguyn Vn Ph,C s l thuyt xc sut, NXB H v THCN H
Ni, 2007.
[2] Hong Ngc Nhm,Xc sut thng k, NXB Thng K, 2008.
13.

Hnh thc thi: vit

14.

Hc vo k th my ca kho hc: Hc k II
Tp H Ch minh, ngy

TRNG KHOA

TRNG B MN

thng

nm 2010

 CNG CHI TIT HC PHN

1. Tn hc phn: XC SUT THNG K.
2. S tn ch: 3 (45 tit).
3. Trnh : Cao ng chuyn nghip.
4. Phn b thi gian: Ln lp (45 tit)
5. iu kin tin quyt:
Sinh vin cn phi c trang b kin thc hc phn c s sau: Ton cao cp.
6. M t vn tt ni dung hc phn:
- Cc khi nim: Nguyn l m, hon v, chnh hp, t hp.
- Vn dng c cch tnh bng nguyn l cng v nhn, quy tc chnh hp, t hp, nh thc
Newton.
- Gii quyt c cc bi ton chn v bi ton t hp.
- Nm c cc khi nim: Php th, bin c, xc sut, xc sut c iu kin.
- Lm c cc bi tp tnh xc sut.
- Vn dng c cc cng thc tnh xc sut: Cng thc cng xc sut v cng thc nhn xc
sut.
- Gii quyt c cc bi ton kinh t da vo bi ton xc sut.
- Nm c nh ngha i lng ngu nhin,vect ngu nhin, hm phn phi, mt s phn
phi thng gp.
- Nm c cc khi nim: K vng, phng sai, phng sai mu hiu chnh
Tnh c k vng, phng sai mu,
- Nm c cc phng php ly mu, cc c trng mu, cc sai s, cch tnh.
- Tnh c k vng, phuong sai mu, cc sai s.,

- Gii quyt c vn : Cung cp v bc u x l s liu thng k.

- Nm c cc loi sai lm khi kim nh .
- Lm c: Cc bi tan kim nh gi thit n gin.
- ng dng kim nh vo cc bi ton kinh t.
7. Nhim v ca sinh vin:
- D lp: 100%.
- Lm bi tp v bi kim tra ti lp.
- Thi cui hc phn.
8. Ti liu hc tp:
Gio trnh chnh :
[1] u Th Cp, Xc sut thng k, NXB Thng K, 2007.
Ti liu tham kho:
[1] Nguyn Duy Tin - Nguyn Vn Ph, C s l thuyt xc sut, NXB H v THCN H
Ni, 2007.
[2] Hong Ngc Nhm, Xc sut thng k, NXB Thng K, 2008.
9. Tiu chun nh gi sinh vin:
im chuyn cn: 10%.
im kim tr thng xuyn: 40%.
Thi cui hc k: 50%.
10.

Thang im: 10.

11. Mc tiu ca hc phn:

Trang b cho sinh vin cc kin thc v k nng v cc khi nim: Nguyn l m, hon v ,
chnh hp, t hp, cch tnh bng nguyn l cng v nhn, quy tc chnh hp, t hp, nh thc
Newton, cc khi nim: Php th, bin c, xc sut, xc sut c iu kin, nh ngha i
lng ngu nhin,vect ngu nhin, hm phn phi, mt s phn phi thng gp. Cc khi
nim: K vng, phng sai, phng sai mu hiu chnh
12. Ni dung hc phn v phn b thi gian chi tit:
Thi gian (tit)
Tng L
TT Tn chng
s
thuyt

Bi
tp

Tho
lun

Kim
tra

Phn I: Xc sut.
1

B tc v gii tch t hp.

Cc khi nim v xc sut.

10

i lng ngu nhin v hm phn 5

phi.

Cc c trng cua ai lng ngu 7

nhin.

Phn II: Thng k.

1

L thuyt mu

c lng

11

Kim inh

Tng s

45

23

20

PHN TH NHT: XC SUT

Chng
01

B tc v gii tch t hp.

Thi lng
LT BT Th.lun
1
1

KT

Mc ch:
Sau khi hc chng ny sinh vin:
- Trnh by c cc khi nim: Nguyn l m, hon v , chnh hp, t hp.
- Trnh by cch tnh bng nguyn l cng v nhn, quy tc chnh hp, t hp, nh thc Newton
Yu cu:
- Phn bit c cc khi nim nguyn l m, hon v , chnh hp, t hp.
- Vn dng lm c cc bi ton tnh bng nguyn l cng v nhn, quy tc chnh hp, t hp, nh
thc Newton.
Ni dung:
1.1.Nguyn l cng, nguyn l nhn.
1.1.1. Nguyn ly cng.

1.1.2. Nguyn ly nhn.

1.2. Chinh hp hoan vi.
1.2.1. Chinh hp.
1.2.2. Hoan vi.
1.2.3. Cng thc nh thc Newton.
Chng
02

Cc khi nim v xc sut.

Thi lng
LT BT Th.lun
5
5

KT

Mc ch:
Sau khi hc bi ny sinh vin:
- Trnh by c cc khi nim: Php th, bin c, xc sut, xc sut c iu kin.
- Trnh by c cc cng thc tnh xc sut: Cng thc cng xc sut v cng thc nhn xc
sut.
- Trnh by cc bi ton kinh t
Yu cu:
- Phn bit c cc khi nim php th, bin c, xc sut, xc sut c iu kin.
- Vn dng cc cng thc lm cc bi ton bng cng thc tnh xc sut.
- Lm c cc bi ton kinh t
Ni dung:
2.1. Bin c v quan h gia cc bin c.
2.1.1. Php th ngu nhin. Bin c rng, bin c tt yu, bin c ngu nhin.
2.1.2. Tng, tch cc bin c, bin c xung khc, bin c i lp.
2.1.3. Nhm y cc bin c, quy tc i ngu.
2.2. Xc sut.
2.2.1. Cc nh ngha xc sut: nh ngha c in, thng k, hnh hc.
2.2.2. Cc tin , tnh cht ca xc sut, cng thc cng xc sut.
2.3. Xc sut c iu kin.
2.3.1. nh ngha.
2.3.2. Cng thc nhn xc sut, tnh c lp ca cc bin c.
2.3.3. Cng thc xc sut y , cng thc Bayes.

2.3.4. Dy php th Bernouli.

CHNG
03

i lng ngu nhin v hm phn phi.

Thi lng
LT BT Th.lun
3
2

KT

Mc ch:
Sau khi hc chng ny sinh vin:
- Trnh by c nh ngha i lng ngu nhin,vect ngu nhin, hm phn phi, mt s
phn phi thng gp.
Yu cu:
- Phn bit c cc i lng ngu nhin,vect ngu nhin, hm phn phi, mt s phn phi
thng gp.
Ni dung:
3.1. i lng ngu nhin.
3.1.1. Khai nim.
3.1.2. Phn loai ai lng ngu nhin.
3.1.3. Lut phn phi.
3.2. Hm phn phi xac sut.
3.3. Mt s lut phn phi thng gp.
3.3.1. Lut phn phi siu bi.
3.3.2. Lut phn phi nhi thc.
3.3.3. Lut phn phi Poisson.
3.3.4. Lut phn phi chun.
Chng
04

Cc c trng cua ai lng ngu nhin.

Thi lng
LT BT Th.lun
4
2

Mc ch:
Sau khi hc chng ny sinh vin:
- Trnh by c cc khi nim: K vng, phng sai, phng sai mu hiu chnh
- Trnh by cc tnh k vng, phng sai mu,
Yu cu:
- Phn bit cc khi nim k vng, phng sai, phng sai mu hiu chnh

KT
1

- Lm c cc bi ton tnh k vng, phng sai

Ni dung:
4.1. K vng.
4.1.1. Vi du minh hoa.
4.1.2. inh nghia.
4.1.3. Y nghia cua ky vong.
4.1.4. Tinh cht cua ky vong.
4.2. Phng sai va lch chun.
4.2.1. Vi du minh hoa.
4.2.2. inh nghia.
4.2.3. Cng thc tinh.
4.2.4. Y nghia cua phng sai.
4.2.5. Tinh cht.
4.3. cc c trng khc ca bin ngu nhin.
PHN TH HAI: THNG K
Chng
01

L thuyt mu.

Thi lng
LT BT Th.lun
2
2

Mc ch:
Sau khi hc chng ny sinh vin:
- Trnh by c cc phng php ly mu, cc c trng mu, cc sai s, cch tnh.
- Trnh by c cc vn : Cung cp v bc u x l s liu thng k.
Yu cu:
- Vn dng tnh c k vng, phng sai mu, cc sai s.
- Bit cch x l s liu thng k
Ni dung:
1.1. Khai nim v mu.
1.1.1.Cc phng php ly mu, mu ngu nhin.
1.1.2. Cc c trng mu.
1.2. Ky vong mu.

KT

1.2.1. inh nghia ky vong mu.

1.2.2. Y nghia ky vong mu.
1.2.3. Cac c s cua ky vong mu.
1.3. Phng sai mu.
1.3.1. inh nghia.
1.3.2. Y nghia va cng thc tinh phng sai.
1.3.3. Ky vong cua phng sai mu.
Chng
02

c lng.

Thi lng
LT TH Th.lun
5
5

KT
1

Mc ch:
Sau khi hc chng ny sinh vin:
- Trnh by c cc nh ngha c lng.
- Trnh by cc vn : c lng gi tr trung bnh ca tng th, t l ca mt thnh phn
trong tng th.
Yu cu:
- Vn dng lm c bi ton c lng khong cho k vng, cho t l.
- Phn bit c cc vn c lng gi tr trung bnh ca tng th, t l ca mt thnh phn
trong tng th.
Ni dung:
2.1 c lng im.
2.1.1. nh ngha.
2.1.2. c lng im
2.1.3. Vi du minh hoa
2.2. c lng khoang.
2.3. Phn phi cua ky vong va ti l mu.
2.3.1. Phn phi cua ky vong mu.
2.3.2. Phn phi cua ti l mu.
2.4. c lng khong cho k vng.
2.4.1. t vn .

2.4.2. Hng giai quyt.

2.4.3. Vi du minh hoa.
2.5. c lng khong cho t l.
2.5.1. t vn .
2.5.2. Hng giai quyt.
2.5.3. Vi du minh hoa.
2.6. Cac chi tiu chinh cua bai toan c lng.
2.6.1. Trng hp c lng khoang cho ky vong.
2.6.2. Trng hp c lng khoang cho ti l.

Chng
03

Kim nh.

Thi lng
LT TH Th.lun
3
3

KT

Mc ch:
Sau khi hc chng ny sinh vin:
- Trnh by c cc loi sai lm khi kim nh.
- Trnh by cc loi kim nh: kim nh gi thit v gi tr trung bnh, kim nh gi thit v t l.
Yu cu:
- Vn dng lm c: Cc bi tan kim nh gi thit n gin.
- Vn dng kim nh vo cc bi ton kinh t.
Ni dung:
3.1. t vn .
3.2. Cc bi ton.
3.2.1. Sai lm loi I.
3.2.2. Sai lm loi II.
3.3. Kim nh gi thit v gi tr trung bnh.
3.3.1. t vn .
3.3.2. Hng giai quyt.
3.3.3. Vi du minh hoa.
3.3.4. Kim nh so snh hai gi tr trung bnh.

3.4. Kim nh gi thit v t l.

3.4.1. t vn .
3.4.2. Hng giai quyt.
3.4.3. Vi du minh hoa.
3.4.4. Kim nh so snh hai t l.
13. Ti liu tham kho chnh xy dng cng hc phn:
[1] Xc sut thng k, u Th Cp, NXB Thng K, XB2007.