Professional Documents
Culture Documents
ti:
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MC LC
MC LC ........................................................................................................ 2
Danh lc biu .............................................................................................. 4
Danh mc hnh v............................................................................................ 4
Danh mc bng biu ....................................................................................... 4
Danh mc ch vit tt ..................................................................................... 5
LI NI U ................................................................................................. 5
Chng I: TNG QUAN V LM PHT V CHNH SCH TIN T 8
I. Khi nim v nguyn nhn c bn gy lm pht .................................... 8
1. nh ngha .............................................................................................. 8
1.1. Lm pht .......................................................................................... 8
1.2. Phn loi......................................................................................... 10
1.3. Thc o lm pht ......................................................................... 12
1.4. Quan h gia lm pht, gi c v li sut. ..................................... 14
2. Hu qu ca lm pht .......................................................................... 16
2.1. Lm pht to nn s bt n cho mi trng kinh t x hi ........... 16
2.2. Lm pht phn phi li thu nhp quc dn v ca ci x hi. ....... 17
2.3. Lm pht lm li sut tng ln ....................................................... 17
2.4. Lm pht tc ng n cn cn thanh ton quc t ....................... 17
3. Nguyn nhn c bn gy lm pht. ...................................................... 18
3.1. Lm pht do mt cn i v c cu kinh t. .................................. 18
3.2. Lm pht do tng cung tin t........................................................ 19
3.3. Lm pht do cu ko. ..................................................................... 20
3.4. Lm pht do chi ph y. ............................................................... 21
II. Ngn hng Nh nc v chnh sch tin t ......................................... 22
1. Ngn hng nh nc ............................................................................ 22
1.1. Khi nim ....................................................................................... 22
1.2. Chc nng ca NHNN ................................................................... 22
2. Chnh sch tin t ................................................................................. 23
2.1. Khi nim ....................................................................................... 23
2.2. Cc cng c chnh ca chnh sch tin t ...................................... 24
III. Kinh nghim s dng CSTT nhm kim sot lm pht mt s nc
trn th gii ................................................................................................. 31
1. Cng ho Lin Bang Nga. ................................................................... 32
2. Hn Quc. ............................................................................................ 32
3. Trung Quc........................................................................................... 33
4. Cc bi hc kinh nghim rt ra............................................................ 34
4.1. CSTT tht cht cn ch trng vo cc nguyn nhn gy lm pht 34
4.2. Thc hin ng b cc cng c CSTT t c cc mc tiu n
nh kinh t-x hi ................................................................................ 35
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Danh lc biu
Biu 1: Mc tng ca gi du th gii. ................................................. 38
Biu 2: Ch s gi tiu dng nm 2007 ...................................................... 40
Biu 3: Lm pht nm 2008 ....................................................................... 42
Biu 4: Gi nhp khu trung bnh 1 s mt hng....................................... 46
Biu 5: Vn FDI u t vo Vit Nam t 2003-2008 ............................... 48
Biu 6: Tng trng tin t v tn dng ..................................................... 50
Biu 8: Bin ng li sut lin NH ............................................................ 60
Biu 9: Lng gim cung tin di tc ng ca CSTT ........................... 63
Danh mc hnh v
Hnh1: Lm pht do cu ko ........................................................................... 20
Hnh2: Lm pht do chi ph y...................................................................... 21
Hnh 3 : Chnh sch tin t di ch t gi c nh. .................................. 64
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Danh mc ch vit tt
CPI
CSTT
DTTB
D tr bt buc
FDI
GDP
NH
NHNN
Ngn hng Nh nc
NHTM
NHTMCP
TCT
TCTD
T chc tn dng
TCTK
Tng cc Thng k.
TKT
Tp on kinh t
TGH
t gi hi oi.
CPI:
FDI:
GDP:
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LI NI U
1. Tnh cp thit ca ti
Lm pht l mt vn kinh t c bn v quan trng i vi bt k
quc gia no trong qu trnh pht trin kinh t- x hi. Nu mc lm pht
mc va phi s kch thch tng trng kinh t, nhng nu t l mc hai con
s thng s lm cho nn kinh t mt cn i v gy ra nhng hu qu
nghim trng. Trong khi ngn chn vn lm pht khng phi l vn
n gin m cn c cc gii php thng nht, ng b v khn ngoan.
Vit Nam tri qua hn 20 nm i mi xy dng ch ngha x hi,
tng tri qua giai on kinh t khng hong v lm pht cao ln ti 3 con
s nh nm 1985 (ln ti 700%). T nm 1986, thc hin ci cch, nn kinh
t bc u c nhng bc chuyn dch tch cc, t l lm pht gim
hn. Sau trong giai on nm 2004-2005, lm pht li c nguy c bng
pht ln cao khi t l lm pht nm 2004 ln 9.5% gn mc hai con s v
mi y, nm 2007 ln ti 12.5%, nm 2008 d on s ln ti hn 25%. Nu
trc kia tnh hnh lm pht ch yu do thi k quan liu bao cp, v trong
nn kinh t ng th nay cc bin php v chnh sch phi ph hp vi cc
yu t ca nn kinh t th trng v hi nhp vi quc t. Cui nm 2006,
Vit Nam chnh thc tr thnh thnh vin th 150 ca WTO. V vy, nn
kinh t Vit Nam chu nhiu nh hng ca cc bin ng nn kinh t ton
cu, i hi cc nh hoch nh chnh sch thc hin kim ch lm pht
khng ch tnh n cc nhn t bn trong m cn phi d tnh n cc yu t
tc ng bn ngoi.
So cc nc c nn kinh t mi ni khc, h cng c nhiu iu kin
pht trin kinh t ging vi nc ta nh nhm cc nc ASEAN-5 (Singapo,
Thi Lan, Philipin, Innxia v Malaixia) nhng t l lm pht ca Vit
Nam nm 2007 v 2008 gp i so vi mc trung bnh cc nc ny. Hn
: d tr mi tng ln 2008 l 20.8 t USD bng 20 tun nhp khu trong khi Trung Quc 1.7 nghn t USD
bng 19 thng xut khu. (Ngun : Bn tho lun s 2 ca Harvard Kenedy School v ASEAN: contrasts
with Viet Nam 13/06/2008 ca UBS)
4. Phm vi nghin cu
Cc s liu tp trung nghin cu trong nm 2007 v nm 2008 do Tng
cc thng k v NHNN, B ti chnh chnh thc ban hnh. Ngoi ra cn c
cc s liu, cng trnh nghin cu v nhn xt v tnh hnh lm pht v bin
ng nn kinh t v m ca Vit Nam do cc t chc quc t nh IMF, WB v
cc tp ch kinh t nc ngoi a ra.Tnh hnh lm pht v chnh sch ca
cc nc khc nh: Cng Ho Lin Bang Nga, Hn Quc v Trung Quc
cng nm trong gii hn phm vi nghin cu ca ti.
5. Phng php nghin cu
Nhm nghin cu s dng cc phng php nghin cu tng hp,
thng k, v phn tch cc s liu. Ngoi ra cn nghin cu v tham kho l
lun v cc vn cn bn ca nn kinh t v m; t kt hp vi thc tin
a ra nhn xt v l gii y hn.
6. Kt cu ca ti
Cng trnh nghin cu ngoi phn m u v kt lun, gm c 3 phn
chnh nh sau:
Chng I: Tng quan v lm pht v chnh sch tin t
Chng II: Tnh hnh lm pht v tc ng ca cc CSTT trong vic kim
sot lm pht trong thi gian qua
Chng III: Cc gii php hon thin CSTT nhm kim sot lm pht giai
on t nay n 2010.
10
11
(1)
Trong :
- t l giai on tnh lm pht
- It l t l lm pht giai on th t
- Pt l tng gi c giai on t
- Pt-1 l tng gi c giai on t-1.
(t v t-1 l hai giai on k tip nhau)
Mc gi chung c xc nh theo hai phng php sau:
1.3.1. Phng php xc nh da trn ch s gi.
Ch s gi bao gm: ch s gi tiu dng (CPI); ch s gi bn l (RPI);
ch s gi sn xut (PPI); ch s gi hng ho bn bun (WPI). Cch xc
nh cc ch s gi ny gn tng t nh nhau tuy nhin ch c ch s gi
tiu dng (CPI) c dng ph bin nht v vic thu thp s liu v xc nh
t trng ca cc ch s gi cn li rt phc tp v kh tnh.
Vic dng ch s gi o lng lm pht thng khng c chnh
xc, bi n lun c khuynh hng phng i lm pht thc. L do y l
12
PitQio
CPI
i 1
n
(2)
PioQio
i 1
Trong :
Pit l gi hng ho sn phm i trong giai on t
Pio l gi hng ho sn phm i trong giai on c s
Qio l trng s ca sn phm i trong giai on c s trong r hng ho
n l s lng hng ho tiu dng.
Nc ta s dng trng s c nh trong 5 nm, k gc 2000 s dng
trong thi k 2001- 2005; nm 2005 dng cho thi k 2006-2010. Do nhu cu
tiu dng ca ngi dn thay i theo thi gian: nm gc 1995 (296 mt
hng), 2000 (390 mt hng), 2005 (494 mt hng). Cc mt hng trong r
hng ha CPI hin c phn chia thnh cc nhm, chi tit theo cc cp: cp
1: 10 nhm, cp 2: 32 nhm, cp 3: 86 nhm, cp 4: 237 nhm. 2
C 4 cch tnh CPI theo gc m Tng Cc Thng K dng l :
1. CPI hng thng so vi thng trc;
2. CPI hng thng so vi thng 12 nm trc;
3. CPI hng thng so vi cng thng (cng k) nm trc;
2
13
LGDP
GDPdanhnghia
GDPthucte
PitQit
(3)
1 1
n
PioQit
i 1
Trong :
LGDP l ch s gim pht GDP (ch s Paasche)
Qit l lng hng ho sn phm i (i=1 n n) trong giai on t.
1.4. Quan h gia lm pht, gi c v li sut.
Lm pht cao s nh hng ti mc gi c v li sut. Bn cht ca
vn ny l tc ng ca khi lng tin t c lu thng ti nn kinh
t. V tin l mt lng ti sn c s dng vo mc ch trao i; khi
lng tin l khi lng ti sn . Mi ngi c th s dng nhng ti sn
khc nhau giao dch. Ti sn r rng nht cn a vo khi lng tin t
l tin mt tc l tin xu v tin giy hin c. Loi ti sn th 2 l tin gi
khng k hn tc l ti sn mi ngi gi ti khon trong ngn hng v c
th rt ra thanh ton bt k lc noV kh c th l gii mt cch chnh
xc loi ti sn no cn c tnh vo thnh phn ca khi lng tin t
nn c nhiu ch tiu khc nhau: C, M1,M2, M3 v L Tuy nhin M1 v
M2 c s dng thng dng nht. M1 l tng ca tin mt, tin gi khng
14
(4)
15
16
17
(5)
18
(6)
19
AD0
AD1
AS
P1
P2
GDP
Hnh1: Lm pht do cu ko
20
gi
AS1
P1
AS0
P2
AD
GDP
Hnh2: Lm pht do chi ph y
21
22
23
24
25
M
Trong :
26
(8)
c
T l d tr thc t s l:
ra =
U
D
Trong : ra l t l d tr thc t
Ra l d tr thc t
Khi ta c s nhn tin t l : mM =
c
c r
1
(9)
a
Nu cp = 0 v ra =rr th mM = 1/rr
2.2.1.4. Chnh sch t gi hi oi
T gi hi oi c nh hng quan trng trong vic km hm hay thc
y s di chuyn cc lung tin t, vn v hng ho gia cc nc vi nhau.
V vy, vic xc lp mt t gi hi oi hp l nhm khuyn khch hot ng
kinh t i ngoi pht trin phc v cho nn kinh t quc gia l mt nhim v
quan trng ca CSTT. C ba ch t gi m cc nc v ang p dng:
- T gi c nh: NHNN buc phi can thip vo th trng ngoi hi duy
tr t gi bin ng xoay quanh mt mc c nh trong bin hp nh
trc. Nh vy, trong ch t gi c nh NHNN buc phi mua vo hoc
bn ra ng ni t nhm gii hn s bin ng ca t gi trong bin
nh. Ch ny c u im l gim bt ri ro trong thanh ton quc t
nhng li ph thuc qu nhiu vo CSTT, i hi NHNN lun c sn ngun
ngoi t di do.
- T gi th ni hon ton: T gi c xc nh hon ton theo cung cu trn
th trng ngoi hi m khng c bt k s can thip no ca NHNN. Ch
t gi ny c nh gi l gip CSTT quc gia c c lp v t bin ng
27
28
29
30
Ngun http://antg.cand.com.vn/vi-vn/ktvhkh/2008/3/65792.cand
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
Ngun: http://www.opec.org.
ng hnh cng gi du l gi lng thc th gii. Trong u nm
2008 xy ra nghch l, nhiu nc pht trin nh EU v M trn th gii
dng lng thc lm nguyn liu sn xut thay th cho du khi gi du
ang i ln mnh. Cc nc ny phi nhn mt ln sng ch trch ca d
lun th gii v trn thc t d tr lng thc FAO ang gim, nhiu nc th
gii th ba ang chu cnh thiu lng thc trm trng. Qu d tr lng
thc hng nm ca FAO l 140 triu tn, ti nm 2007 gim xung cn mt
na, sn lng nm 2007 ch t 240 triu tn trong khi nhu cu l 245 triu
tn. Sn lng lng thc 2 nm gn y gim trong khi nhu cu tng cao,
y gi lng thc tng ln. Thng 3/ 2007, gi go xut khu Thi Lan tng
323 USD/ tn ln 332 USD/tn gi FOB, loi 100%B so vi u thng 2.
Vt Nam, gi go xut khu 6 thng u nm tng 40 USD/tn so vi cui
nm 2006.4 Gi go tip tc tng, gi vo thng 5/2008 gi tng gp 3 ln so
38
39
ch s gi chung
3
ch s gi lng thc
thc phm
ch s gi nh v vt
liu xy dng
1
0
-1
10
11
12
40
41
2008
2007
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
42
43
Gi th gii 60
(USD/ thng)
52
60,07
66,46
75,00
99,00
100
127,72
10.100
11.000
11.800
11.300
13.000
14.500
19.000
Ngun: http://www.vnexpress.net/
Xng du lun l mt mt hng quan trng v c tc ng n nhiu
mt hng v dch v khc. V th c sau mi t tng gi xng du kt qu tt
yu l gi c ca cc mt hng khc tng theo bng phn ng dy chuyn v
tc ng tm l ca ngi dn. V chi ph vn chuyn, chi ph xng du
chim 50% trong , lm tc ng n gi cc i li ng thi cc vn
http://www.vnexpress.net/
44
45
2007
60
4M-2008
40
20
0
phn bn
sn phm xng
du
la m
st thp
46
47
FDI ng k
2004
2005
2006
2007
5M-08nm
48
1997
1999
2001 2005
2006
2007
T62008
NH
TMQD
NH TMCP
41
48
51
48
39
37
37
37
34
Chi nhnh
NHNN
18
24
26
26
29
31
33
37
NH Lin
doanh
Tng s
56
74
84
83
74
75
78
80
84
49
: IMF
: Bo co thng nin ca NHNN Vit Nam
10
50
11
12
51
52
:http://www.giavang.net/Home/GoldValues/
14
http://vi.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kh%E1%BB%A7ng_ho%E1%BA%A3ng_t%C3%A0i_ch%C3%ADnh_%C4%
90%C3%B4ng_%C3%8 gii thch din bin tnh hnh khng hong ti chnh chu
53
54
55
56
c
r c
1
p
p
57
58
59
0.5% ln 0.75%.
-
60
61
62
Ngun: Bo co WB 06/2008.
5.2. Cc hn ch v nguyn nhn
5.2.1. Cc hn ch
16
63
E1
i*
CM
*I
E2
IS
Y2
Y1
64
65
66
67
68
69
2007
2008
2009
2010
7.3
7.5
5.1
7.0
8.0
8.8
7.5
7.5
7.5
8.5
Tng cu trong nc
8.1
8.1
6.9
8.5
8.7
15.5
15
16.9
15.6
15.7
14.6
16.4
18.0
15.5
14
0.1
2.2
3.2
1.5
1.3
8.2
8.5
6.9
7.7
8.0
17.0
17.3
15.9
16.5
17
cng
khu
Kim ngch nhp
khu
Thm ht thng
mi
Tng trng nng
nghip
Tng trng cng
nghip
70
8.2
8.5
6.9
7.7
8.0
T l lm pht
6.6
12.6
31
9.5
8.5
(n v: %/nm)
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
KT LUN
Trong hn 20 nm ci cch m ca, Vit Nam t c nhng bc
chuyn mnh mnh m v pht trin kinh t - x hi v nng cao vai tr, v th
trn trng quc t. t c nhng thnh tu nh ngy hm nay l nh
c s n lc v c gng khng ngng ca ng, Nh nc v ton th nhn
dn; tuy nhin vi thnh cng ny, Vit Nam s phi i din vi kh khn v
thch thc ln hn rt nhiu. WTO m ra c hi pht trin kinh t v
chnh tr cho Vit Nam, nhng cng ng thi a Vit Nam vo nhng bin
ng ang c chiu hng xu i ca nn kinh t ton cu. Va l mt nc
nh b phi chu nhiu nh hng ca nn kinh t ln khi m ca, ng thi
h thng kinh t- x hi cha pht trin y , va thiu kinh nghim trong
iu hnh qun l; tt c nhng yu t ny s to thnh ro chn kin c m
bt buc Vit Nam phi vt qua trn con ng hi nhp.
Mt trong nhng kh khn ch yu v ni cm hin nay m Vit Nam
phi i mt l tnh hnh lm pht gia tng gy bt n kinh t v lm chnh
quyn Nh nc phi au u trn tr tm ra li gii cho bi ton a ra
chnh sch ph hp va gim lm pht, va c th thc y pht trin c
kinh t. Mc d, c gng khng mt mi gii quyt vn ny nhng
Nh nc vn khng trnh khi nhng sai lm ban u, to ra cc tc ng
tiu cc vo tnh hnh hin ti, nhng khng th ph nhn nhng mt tch cc
trong v nhng sa i sai lm pha sau. Nhn chung kt hp cc chnh
sch vi nhau c hiu qu bc u v nhm nghin cu tin tng vo
nhng tin trin tch cc sau ny ca n.
Da vo tnh hnh thc t, nhm nghin cu vit ti ny nhm
minh ha mt cch chi tit v c th v din bin tnh hnh lm pht trong
nc ng thi phn tch tc ng ca CSTT trong vic phng chng lm
81
82
83
84
PH LC
Ph lc1: L TRNH CHNH SCH TIN T VIT
NAM 2007-2008
1. Chnh sch li sut
- 30/01/2008: Thng c NHNN k 2 quyt nh s 305/Q-NHNN v
306/Q-NHNN; Nng li sut c bn 8.25% ln 8.75%; ti cp vn t 6.5%
ln 7.5%; li sut ti chit khu: 4.5% ln 6%; p dng t ngy 01/02/2008.
- 24/03/2008 Hip hi Ngn hng Vit Nam hp cc t chc tn dng v
Ngn hng nht tr p dng mc li sut trn huy ng l 11% i vi VND
thay v 12% trc kia v 6% i vi USD; p dng t 02/04/2008.
- 29/04/2008 Hip hi Ngn hng Vit Nam ng thun tng li sut trn
ln 112% cho k hn trn 6 thng v 11,5% cho k hn i 6 thng i vi
VND
- 15/05/2008 : Ti cuc hp t vn chnh sch tin t quc gia, Th tng
Chnh ph Nguyn Tn Dng quyt nh bi b ch li sut trn.
Chiu 17/05/08 NHNN ban hnh quyt nh 16/2008/Q-NHNN p dng
c ch li sut c bn: 8.75% ln 12%; ti cp vn t 7.5% ln 13%; ti
chit khu t 6% ln 11%; c hiu lc t ngy 19/05/2008.
- 10/06/2008: Thng c NHNN ban hnh Quyt nh s 1317/QNHNN v mc li sut c bn bng VND v Quyt nh s 1316/QNHNN v li sut ti cp vn v li sut ti chit khu; nng mc li sut c
bn ln 14%, ti cp vn t 13% ln 15%, ti chit khu t 11% ln 13%; p
dng t ngy 11/06/2008.
2. T l d tr bt buc
85
87
Ch tiu
100,00
47,90
- Lng thc
13,08
- Thc phm
29,58
ung v thuc l
4,50
7,63
Nh v vt liu xy dng
8,23
9,20
Dc phm, y t
2,41
10,07
Gio dc
2,89
3,81
10
3,36
88
111,7
106,5
103,2
102,2
114,6
120,9
111,9
112,5
109,1
113,9
109,3
106,3
108,1
107,6
115,0
105,0
106,8
106,3
109,5
106,7
103,9
103,1
104,6
104,6
104,7
104,2
102,3
105,0
101,6
100,6
100,1
103,5
102,8
103,8
102,5
101,3
101,9
101,1
100,4
100,1
95,7
106,3
106,5
112,1
97,0
103,8
103,7
107,2
99,9
100,4
102,2
103,2
100,0
100,2
102,1
102,3
145,6
101,1
117,1
100,6
100,9
99,7
102,1
99,8
89
111,4
106,8
103,0
99,8
114,1
120,9
111,3
111,7
108,8
113,8
109,5
106,6
108,7
108,1
114,7
105,5
106,5
105,8
109,3
106,4
103,6
104,4
104,2
104,6
104,1
103,5
102,0
104,9
101,7
100,9
100,7
99,6
100,0
99,4
99,3
99,8
99,9
100,1
100,3
100,6
Trong :
Gio dc
Vn ho, th thao, gii tr
dng v dch v khc
95,5
106,3
105,2
111,5
96,9
103,8
103,2
107,1
99,8
100,5
101,0
102,6
99,9
100,1
98,8
99,5
CH S GI VNG
CH S GI LA M
149,4
101,0
118,0
100,6
103,5
99,6
102,6
99,9
Bu chnh, vin
thng
90
112,0
107,2
103,5
100,5
114,6
120,8
112,0
111,5
109,3
114,9
110,0
107,2
109,8
108,3
114,3
106,1
106,2
106,1
110,6
106,4
104,1
105,4
104,6
104,5
104,8
103,3
102,5
105,9
102,1
101,4
101,7
100,4
99,9
100,7
99,8
100,5
101,0
100,4
100,5
101,1
95,5
106,5
105,2
112,0
96,9
103,8
103,5
107,3
99,8
100,6
101,0
103,1
100,0
100,2
100,0
100,5
151,0
101,2
113,8
100,6
104,7
99,7
101,1
100,1
91
113,8
107,8
105,2
100,9
117,0
122,0
114,7
111,9
109,9
114,9
108,1
106,0
106,8
105,6
107,3
103,7
101,0
100,4
101,4
100,2
110,4
117,5
111,1
108,7
111,5
106,2
111,0
106,2
104,6
103,8
103,5
108,2
103,2
102,9
103,3
100,5
101,3
100,4
100,8
100,9
94,4
106,8
107,0
113,4
98,5
104,0
104,2
107,9
98,6
100,9
102,7
104,3
98,9
100,2
101,3
100,5
151,5
101,6
102,8
100,5
105,0
100,1
98,0
100,3
92
114.87
118.87
122.70
117.34
112.20
108.39
111.13
115.03
110.06
105.57
106.19
108.50
106.13
109.78
103.95
100.94
101.59
100.54
102.29
100.27
110.90
118.32
111.62
109.45
111.64
106.44
110.93
106.41
105.04
103.82
104.03
109.03
103.69
103.58
103.42
100.49
100.73
100.49
100.69
100.16
94.27
106.86
107.26
113.89
150.61
101.81
98.40
103.78
104.51
107.80
105.51
100.95
98.47
100.94
103.00
104.78
104.39
100.32
99.87
100.08
100.27
100.46
99.41
100.22
93
115.50
119.92
123.76
118.42
112.76
108.57
111.91
115.68
110.96
105.90
106.78
109.46
107.05
110.79
104.47
100.55
100.88
100.86
100.92
100.50
111.32
118.50
111.93
110.16
111.81
106.33
109.93
106.38
105.46
103.01
104.43
109.20
103.99
104.26
103.58
100.38
100.15
100.28
100.65
100.15
94.20
107.16
107.43
114.44
95.87
103.77
104.36
108.07
98.40
101.23
103.16
105.29
99.93
100.28
100.16
100.48
CH S GI VNG
CH S GI LA M
152.85
101.97
104.72
100.97
105.94
100.48
101.49
100.16
94
%
Ch s gi 9
thng
nm 2007 so
vi
Thng
9
nm
2006
Thng
12
nm
2006
Thng
8
nm
2007
116.09
108.80
107.32
100.51
107.53
121.14
113.32
110.57
101.02
109.64
124.81
116.21
107.96
100.85
114.90
Thc phm
119.91
113.12
112.18
101.26
107.86
ung v thuc l
May mc, giy dp v m
nn
112.83
105.65
104.53
100.06
106.05
111.66
105.94
104.75
100.31
106.12
Nh v vt liu xy dng
119.01
109.47
109.66
100.43
109.95
106.17
104.25
100.25
106.37
Dc phm, y t
111.16
106.20
105.20
100.91
104.60
110.87
100.49
102.71
99.16
103.44
93.79
97.72
97.97
99.57
97.33
Gio dc
107.57
103.43
101.62
100.39
103.75
106.47
103.03
102.24
99.11
103.66
114.92
108.55
105.73
100.42
107.49
CH S GI VNG
155.80
109.88
107.99
101.93
110.18
CH S GI LA M
102.55
101.47
101.05
100.57
100.73
K gc
(2005)
CH S GI TIU DNG
95
cng k 2006
Ch s gi 10
thng nm 2007 so
vi cng k 2006
116,95
109,34
108,12
100,74
107,71
122,46
113,94
111,78
101,09
110,07
Trong
Lng thc
126,19
115,98
109,15
101,11
115,01
Thc phm
121,34
114,19
113,52
101,19
108,49
ung v thuc l
May mc, giy dp v m
nn
113,29
105,75
104,96
100,41
106,02
111,99
105,82
105,05
100,29
106,09
Nh v vt liu xy dng
120,81
111,72
111,32
101,51
110,13
112,45
105,90
104,46
100,21
106,33
Dc phm, y t
112,07
106,46
106,06
100,81
104,78
110,91
102,33
102,75
100,04
103,32
93,56
97,56
97,73
99,75
97,26
Gio dc
107,79
102,02
101,82
100,20
103,57
105,70
102,05
101,50
99,27
103,50
115,44
108,08
106,21
100,45
107,55
CH S GI VNG
165,21
120,24
114,51
106,04
111,19
CH S GI LA M
101,93
100,67
100,45
99,40
100,73
96
Ch s gi 11
thng nm 2007
so vi cng k
2006
118,39
110,01
109,45
101,23
107,92
124,99
114,89
114,08
102,06
110.51
129,55
114,74
112,06
102.66
114.98
Thc phm
123,70
115,90
115,73
101.95
109.17
ung v thuc l
May mc, giy dp v m
nn
113,74
105,29
105,38
100,40
105.95
112,44
106,21
105,47
100,40
106.10
Nh v vt liu xy dng
123,07
114,01
113,40
101,87
110.48
112,68
105,40
104,67
100,20
106.24
Dc phm, y t
112,42
106,60
106,40
100,32
104.95
110,93
102,85
102,77
100,02
103.28
93,05
97,15
97,20
99.46
97.26
Gio dc
107,85
101,94
101,89
100,06
103.42
105,59
101,57
101,39
99,90
103.32
116,61
108,10
107,29
101,02
107.60
CH S GI VNG
179,90
128,71
124,69
108,89
112,78
CH S GI LA M
101,65
100,19
100,17
99,72
100,68
97
Ch s gi
bnh
qun nm
2007
so vi nm
2006
Thng
12
nm
2006
Thng
11
nm
2007
121.83
112.63
102.91
108.30
130.29
118.92
104.24
111.16
133.41
115.40
102.98
115.02
Thc phm
129.50
121.16
104.69
110.06
ung v thuc l
115.26
106.78
101.33
106.02
113.74
106.70
101.16
106.15
Nh v vt liu xy dng
127.10
117.12
103.28
111.01
113.19
105.15
100.46
106.15
Dc phm, y t
113.11
107.05
100.61
105.12
115.79
107.27
104.38
103.60
92.34
96.45
99.23
97.19
Gio dc
107.94
101.97
100.08
103.30
105.90
101.69
100.29
103.18
118.49
109.02
101.61
107.72
CH S GI VNG
183.73
127.35
102.13
113.62
CH S GI LA M
101.46
99.97
99.81
100.62
K gc
(2005)
CH S GI TIU DNG
98
CH S GI TIU DNG
Hng n v dch v n ung
Trong : Lng thc
Thc phm
ung v thuc l
May mc, giy dp v m nn
Nh v vt liu xy dng
Thit b v dng gia nh
Dc phm, y t
Phng tin i li, bu in
Trong : Bu chnh, vin
thng
Gio dc
Vn ho, th thao, gii tr
dng v dch v khc
CH S GI VNG
CH S GI LA M
Thng 01 nm 2008 so vi
(%):
Thng
Thng
K gc
01
12
(2005)
nm
nm
2007
2007
124.73 114.11
102.38
135.18 122.01
103.76
137.88 117.15
103.35
134.36 124.62
103.75
117.30 106.91
101.77
115.33 107.11
101.40
130.76 116.89
102.88
114.16 105.53
100.85
113.87 107.53
100.67
115.76 107.19
99.97
84.40
108.16
105.96
121.57
193.05
101.19
99
88.19
101.98
101.63
110.86
135.33
99.83
91.40
100.20
100.06
102.60
105.07
99.74
Ch s gi 2
thng
nm 2008 so
vi
cng k nam
2007
Thng
2
nm
2007
Thng
12
nm
2007
Thng
1
nm
2008
129,17
115,67
106,02
103,56
143,54
125,23
110,17
106,18
123,61
142,36
117,71
106,71
103,25
117.43
Thc phm
144,48
129,06
111,56
107,53
126.82
ung v thuc l
May mc, giy dp v m
nn
119,51
106,25
103,69
101,89
106,58
116,90
107,19
102,78
101,36
107,15
Nh v vt liu xy dng
Thit b v dng gia
nh
132,58
116,36
104,31
101,39
116,62
114,99
105,19
101,59
100,73
105,36
Dc phm, y t
114,39
107,59
101,13
100,46
107,56
117,51
108,73
101,48
101,51
107,96
84,21
88,03
91,20
99,78
88.11
Gio dc
108,26
101,88
100,30
100,10
101.93
108,44
101,86
102,40
102,34
101,74
125,70
112,10
106,09
103,40
111,48
CH S GI VNG
204,46
140,41
111,28
105,91
137,85
CH S GI LA M
101,07
99,92
99,62
99,88
99,88
K gc
(2005)
CH S GI TIU DNG
Hng n v dch v n ung
100
114,89
133,04
119,39
109,19
102,99
116,38
Hng n v dch v n
ung
149,11
130,64
114,45
103,88
125.92
Lng thc
157,31
130,14
117,91
110,50
121,53
Thc phm
146,44
131,62
113,08
101,36
128,41
ung v thuc l
May mc, giy dp v m
nn
120,30
107,73
104,38
100,66
106,97
117,94
108,42
103,69
100,89
107,58
Nh v vt liu xy dng
Thit b v dng gia
nh
137,29
120,61
108,01
103,55
117,94
116,73
106,63
103,12
101,51
105,78
Dc phm, y t
115,23
108,06
101,87
100,73
107,73
114,34
107,32
105,76
110,05
87,87
90,91
99,68
88,03
Gio dc
108,59
102,12
100,60
100,30
101,99
109,84
104,38
103,72
101,29
102,61
125,83
112,83
106,19
100,10
111,94
217,64
145,69
118,46
106,45
140,50
Trong
CH S GI VNG
101
99,54
98,51
102
98,12
98,49
99,42
%
Ch s gi 4 thng
nm 2008 so vi
cng k nm
2007
117,61
153,75
166,92
149,69
121,12
119,07
140,88
117,83
116,16
127,17
103,11
106,11
102,22
100,68
100,96
102,62
100,95
100,81
102,33
127,91
125.50
129.69
107,38
107,91
119,08
106,12
107,89
111,45
87.98
102.08
103,20
112,18
140,57
99,46
134,11
138,21
133,63
108,65
108,94
122,59
107,17
108,38
115,79
103
118,01
125,12
115,59
105,09
104,69
110,84
104,10
102,70
109,83
CH S GI TIU DNG
Hng n v dch v n
ung
Trong Lng thc
Thc phm
ung v thuc l
May mc, giy dp v m
nn
Nh v vt liu xy dng
Thit b v dng gia
nh
Dc phm, y t
Phng tin i li, bu
in
Bu chnh, vin
Trong thng
Gio dc
Vn ho, th thao, gii tr
dng v dch v khc
CH S GI VNG
CH S GI LA M
%
Ch s gi 5
thng
nm 2008 so
vi
cng k nm
2007
K gc
Thng 5
(2005)
nm
2007
Thng
12
nm
2007
141,28
125,20
115,96
103,91
119,09
164,89
203,96
153,11
123,40
142,35
167,84
135,39
110,45
126,56
152,88
118,23
107,06
107,25
122,19
102,28
101,88
130,68
133.01
130.81
107,99
120,22
142,57
109,46
122,99
105,69
112,17
100,96
101,20
108,22
119,85
118,93
116,72
107,48
108,24
105,07
103,19
100,93
100,48
106,39
107,96
127,60
115,52
110,20
100,34
112,25
83,83
109,49
111,05
126,91
87,80
102,72
105,11
112,50
90,79
101,44
104,87
107,11
99,93
100,45
100,57
100,33
87.94
102.21
103,58
112,24
204,70
101,78
132,45
100,45
111,41
100,32
96,11
101,02
137,81
99,79
104
Thng 4
nm
2008
Thng
5
nm
2008
%
Ch s gi 6
thng
nm 2008 so
vi
cng k nm
2007
120,34
170,32
212,71
157,78
124,72
121,32
145,33
120,45
117,49
128,05
103,29
104,29
103,05
101,07
100,92
101,93
101,28
100,66
100,35
133,05
139.14
131.91
108,56
108,50
120,49
106,73
107,98
112,69
88.07
102.38
103,69
112,37
139,25
100,51
Thng
6
nm
(2005)
2007
CH S GI TIU DNG
Hng n v dch v n ung
Trong Lng thc
Thc phm
ung v thuc l
May mc, giy dp v m nn
Nh v vt liu xy dng
Thit b v dng gia nh
Dc phm, y t
Phng tin i li, bu in
Bu chnh, vin
Trong thng
Gio dc
Vn ho, th thao, gii tr
dng v dch v khc
CH S GI VNG
CH S GI LA M
145,55
174,29
137,54
111,46
109,94
123,72
108,44
108,08
114,88
105
Thng
12
nm
2007
130,73
159,44
121,83
108,21
106,67
114,34
106,41
103,87
110,58
106
QUYT NH
iu 1: Quy nh mc li sut c bn bng Vit Nam ng l 14,00%/nm.
iu 2: Quyt nh ny c hiu lc t ngy 11/06/2008 v thay th quyt
nh s 1275/Q- NHNN ngy 30/05/2008 ca Thng c Ngn hng Nh
nc Vit Nam v mc li sut c bn bng ng Vit Nam.
iu 3: Chnh Vn phng, V Trng V Chnh sch tin t v Th trng
cc n v thuc Ngn hng Nh nc Vit Nam, gim c Ngn hng Nh
nc chi nhnh cc tnh, thnh ph trc thuc Trung ng; Hi ng qun
tr v Tng gim c (gim c) t chc tn dng chu trch nhim thi hnh
quyt nh ny.
107
108
109
110