JOURNAL GEOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF INDIA Vol.80, September 2012, pp.

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Earthquake Forerunner as Probable Precursor An Example from North Burma Subduction Zone
SUJIT DASGUPTA1, BASAB MUKHOPADHYAY2 and MANOJ MUKHOPADHYAY3
2

Ex Geological Survey of India, Kolkata, India Geological Survey of India, Central Headquarters, 27 J.L. Nehru Road, Kolkata-700016, India 3 Department of Geology & Geophysics, King Saud University, P.O. Box 2455, Riyadh 11451, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia Email: basabmukhopadhyay@yahoo.com

Abstract: The Burmese Arc seismic activity is not uniform for its ~ 1100 km length; only the Northern Burmese Arc (NBA) is intensely active. Six large earthquakes in the magnitude range 6.1 7.4 have originated from the NBA Benioff zone between 1954 -2011, within an area of 200 x 300 km2 where the Indian plate subducts eastward to depths beyond 200 km below the Burma plate. An analysis on seismogenesis of this interplate region suggests that while the subducting lithosphere is characterized by profuse seismicity, seismicity in the overriding plate is rather few. Large earthquakes occurring in the overriding plate are associated with the backarc Shan-Sagaing Fault (SSF) further east. The forecasting performance of the Benioff zone earthquakes in NBA as forerunner is analysed here by: (i) spatial earthquake clustering, (ii) seismic cycles and their temporal quiescence and (iii) the characteristic temporal b-value changes. Three such clusters (C1- C3) are identified from NBA Benioff Zones I & II that are capable of generating earthquakes in the magnitude ranges of 7.38 to 7.93. Seismic cycles evidenced for the Zone I displayed distinct quiescence (Q1, Q2 and Q3) prior to the 6th August 1988 (M 6.6) earthquake. Similar cycles were used to forecast an earthquake (Dasgupta et al. 2010) to come from the Zone I (cluster C1); which, actually struck on 4 February 2011 (M 6.3). The preparatory activity for an event has already been set in the Zone II and we speculate its occurrence as a large event (M > 6.0) possibly within the year 2012, somewhere close to cluster C3. Temporal analysis of b-value indicates a rise before an ensuing large earthquake. Keywords: Northern Burmese Arc (NBA), Precursor, Seismic clusters, Seismic cycles, Temporal quiescence, Temporal b-value.

INTRODUCTION

Short-time earthquake precursors within a reasonable time-frame are often looked for as an indicator or warning of an approaching event and prove useful for forecasting. Seismic parameters like the enhanced foreshocks, seismicity pattern and seismic quiescence that occur before a main shock are linked to the ground preparation of the main shock (IASPEI Sub-Commission on Precursors); these are considered as physical preparation for the principal rupturing to follow (Scholz, 2002). The IASPEI lists of significant precursors include foreshocks, pre-shocks, seismic quiescence before major aftershocks, radon decrease in ground water, and increase in ground water level (Wyss, 1997). Historically, the precursory evidences have been classified into A1, A2 and B types (Rikitake, 1975). The type B precursors observed in terms of foreshocks have no magnitude-dependent precursor time. The A2-type precursors observed by means of geodetic work, changes in seismic-

wave velocities have a precursor time which is closely correlated to the magnitude of coming earthquakes. The A1-type precursor, mostly observed several hours prior to the main shock, is caused by a creep-like failure before the main rupture (Rikitake, 1975). The changes in the seismic rate (Ogata, 2005) and its later version that combines Accelerated Seismic Rate (ASR) power-law and geometry (Mignan, 2011) are important precursors. Both high/ low bvalues in and around the epicentral zone reflecting the nature of ensuing movement (thrust/strike-slip/ normal) along causative fault planes, material heterogeneity, high and low stress condition are also treated as precursors (Wyss and Martirosyan, 1998; Enescu and Ito, 2001, 2002; Huang et al. 2001; Monterroso and Kulhnek, 2003; Schorlemmer et al. 2004; Nuannin et al. 2005; Wiemer et al. 2005). Prediction of an earthquake has both success and failure. There are some controversial successful stories in the USA

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and China in 1970s whilst there are cases where the predicted earthquake never took place. Even several large earthquakes in recent times (like 26th December 2004 Sumatra earthquake (Mw 9.3); 11th March 2011 Sendai earthquake (Mw 8.9) in Japan) do not produce appreciable recognizable precursors. Nevertheless, the advanced research efforts are on to look for different types of precursors in the earthquake forecasting; refer to the recent reviews by Cicerone et al. (2009), Murru et al. (2009) and Uyeda et al. (2009). The NBA is in direct continuation of the Sunda Andaman arc system within a land environment that ultimately connects to the Himalayas and thereby forms an important seismic region where studies of seismicity precursor could contribute to a better understanding of the underlying physical processes and seismic hazard assessment (Fig.1). More so, since, the NBA subduction zone has the added advantage of utilizing the data from surface geological mapping. Studies on earthquake precursors for

its immediate western region in the Eastern Himalayan foredeep have earlier been attempted by various researchers (Khattri and Weiss, 1978; Gupta and Singh, 1982, 1986, 1989; Guha and Bhattacharya, 1984; Gupta 1985, 1987, 1993; and Khattri, 1987, 1993, 1999). Gupta and Singh (1986, 1989), Gupta (1987) through an analysis of precursory earthquake swarms, made an earthquake forecast valid up to 1990 in the North Burma that eventually struck in August 1988. Our objective here is to look for the earthquake forerunners in NBA by using: (i) Short-term spatial earthquake clustering, (ii) Seismicity pattern, Seismic cycles and their temporal quiescence and (iii) Temporal b-values. This exercise will hopefully contribute to assess the seismic potentiality of NBA in near future.
SEISMOLOGICAL SETTING OF NBA

The 450 km stretch of NBA (Fig. 1) is seismically most

Fig.1. Seismotectonic Map of Northern Burmese Arc (NBA); earthquake data period: 1954 through 2010, data source cited in text; precursor studies carried with earthquake events that locate within the rectangular areas marked Zones I and II. Black stars 1 to 6 are large Benioff zone earthquakes for which precursor analysis undertaken. A-A' and B-B' are the section lines across the two zones illustrated on Fig.3. BS Belt of Schuppen, CB Central Basin, DF Dauki Fault, EBT Eastern Boundary Thrust, SSF Shan Sagaing Fault, VA Volcanic Arc.
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DATA AND METHODS Earthquake Data Catalogue

Fig.2. Schematic interplate configuration below NBA (approach adopted after Sibson, 2009); BP: Burmese Plate, CSZ Crustal Seismic Zone; within CSZ of Burma plate seismicity is sparse in the forearc domain below CB Chindwin Basin while large earthquakes occur in the backarc domain associated with SSF Shan Sagaing fault; SBB Shwebo backarc basin; SP Shan Plateau; VF Volcanic front; note that no great shallow interplate earthquakes have occurred within the recorded history along LI locked interface between the subducting Indian and overthrust Burmese plate. Benioff zone below the locked interface is highly seismogenic. Overpressure fluid generated from plate interface, metamorphism and diagenesis of sediments in the basins (CB and SBB) along Burmese plate generates small-intermediate shocks.

In order to decipher the seismic clusters and cycles affecting the NBA, we utilize ISS/CGS data for the period 1954 through 1963; ISC bulletin data from 1964 through 2004 and NEIC data for the period 2005 through February 2011. The Centennial Catalogue and EHB event data (courtesy: Prof. E. R. Engdahl, pers. comm.) is also consulted for cross checking of earthquake parameters. These earthquake data are plotted on topographic DEM showing major tectonic features (Fig. 1), where, the configuration of the subducting slab, Benioff Zone and other associated features are adopted from Guzman-Speciale and Ni (1996) and Dasgupta et al. (2003). For an analysis of b-values, it is very important to inspect the magnitude completeness as the b-value is particularly affected by the missing events. This is discussed next.
Magnitude Thresholds

active in the entire region, where the Benioff zone plunges below the Burma plate at an angle of 40 - 45 (Figs. 2 and 3). For constructing the seismic sections (lower panel of Fig.3), the data from the earthquake catalogue (described in the next section) and available EHB relocated data of the events are used. The geological sections on the top panel of Fig.3 are after Mukhopadhyay and Dasgupta (1988). Details on seismicity and geometry of the interplate region are already discussed in our earlier studies (Mukhopadhyay and Dasgupta, 1988; Dasgupta et al. 2003). Most notable feature of NBA is that while seismicity is profuse to define the subducting lithosphere, earthquake incidence is relatively sparse within the overriding plate. It is intriguing that NBA has not produced large shallow foci interplate earthquakes within the recorded history and neither there are significant events originating from the seismogenic forearc crust of the overriding plate. Only some moderate to large shallow foci earthquakes are found with SSF system. Though their location error could be quite large (Centennial Earthquake Catalog, Engdahl and Villaseor, 2002), some significant events occurring close to SSF are: 27.01.1931 (M 7.6; h 35 km); 12.09.1946 (M 7.7; h 35 km); 16.07.1956 (M 7.1; h 25 km). Here, the most recent relocated EHB event being of 05.01.1991(M 7.0; h 18 km) that was associated with the SSF and it shows dextral strike slip movement.
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The data catalogue from the year 1954 through February 2011 contains 1444 events with magnitude ranging from 2.9 to 7.4 and focal depth down to 285 km. To workout the magnitude completeness, we adopt the methodology based on the assumption of self-similarity (Wiemer and Wyss, 2000). A fast and reliable estimate of the magnitude completeness (Mc) by this method is to define the point of the maximum curvature (MAXC) as magnitude of completeness. This is done by computing the maximum value of the first derivative of the frequency-magnitude curve. In practice, this matches the magnitude bin with the highest frequency of events in the non-cumulative frequencymagnitude distribution. Highest frequency of events in the non-cumulative curve with the NBA data is having a flat peak with magnitude 3.9 as the highest frequency class which by definition may be taken as Mc (Fig.4). Here, the G-R relation: Log (cumulative frequency) magnitude illustrates that for magnitude 4.1 and above, the curve is smooth and follows a straight-line, thereby implying that all earthquakes of magnitude 4.1 in the region were detected and the catalogue is by and large complete above this cut-off magnitude. To maintain a rational between over- and underestimations which may take place within statistical procedures, an intermediate magnitude 4.0 as Mc is adopted for further calculations.
PRECURSOR STUDIES Earthquake Clustering Epidemic Model for NBA

A seismic cluster is suspected in a region if it consists of

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Fig.3. Section view through A- A' and B- B' across NBA (Fig. 1 for location) illustrate geology (top panel; after Mukhopadhyay and Dasgupta, 1988) and underlying seismic zones; note the locations of five large earthquakes within the inclined seismic slab under Zone I and one earthquake under Zone II. Earthquakes defined by the grey band constitutes cluster C1 in Zone I while clusters C2-C3 in Zone II (refer Fig.5). AB Aseismic Belt; EBT Eastern Boundary Thrust; and VA Volcanic Arc.

multiple events with magnitude greater than a threshold value originating within an acceptable time period. Point density estimate (after Silverman, 1986), a spatial statistical function, is applied to constrain the extent of such seismic clusters as it successfully identifies the areas of concentration of points. To calculate the point density, distance between the adjacent earthquakes (mb 4.0; time frame 1954-2010) is measured on the earthquake distribution map (Fig. 1) by near analysis. From the distance data, a mean distance (~10 km) between the earthquake points is calculated. The mean distance is taken as the radius of the circular influence for point density calculation. Point density is calculated as the total number of earthquake epicentral points that fall within the chosen circular area (here: 10 km radius) divided by the area of the circle. A factor resulting from the size of earthquake is also considered for deriving the point density value, i.e. the size of the earthquake is taken as its count. This is done to offer more weight to larger earthquakes. The measurement is then carried out on an overlapping grid pattern where the centre of the circle has moved across the map, both along latitude and longitude, by a sliding distance equivalent to the search radius (10 km). Resulting point values obtained are interpolated to generate a grid. This grid has a mean (m) 308.14 and standard deviation (sd) of 427.50.

The areas with anomalous point density (value > (m + 2 sd) = 1163.14) are identified as zones of spatial clusters, shown by closed polygons (Fig.5).

Fig.4. Frequency-magnitude distribution of the data (1954 February 2011) in the catalogue used. The result of the MAXC approach is indicated with the arrow (Mc = 3.9) and for Gutenberg-Richter relationship with Mc = 4.1. The gray coloured line on cumulative frequency curve indicates the best fit line by G-R relationship.
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The process identifies four such spatial seismic clusters of variable sizes within NBA (designated as C1 through C3) representing mainly the zone between EBT and volcanic arc whereas the fourth cluster (C4) locates along the SSF in the back-arc. Notice that six moderate to large earthquakes have originated within the clusters or from their periphery (Fig. 5). Four earthquakes of: 06.08.1988; 09.01.1990; 06.05.1995 and 04.02.2011 (all are thrust type events; see Table 2) locate within cluster C1 while one along its periphery (21.03.1954). Similarly, the earthquake of 17.10.1969 locates within cluster C3. Seismo-geologic sections drawn across clusters C1 (Fig. 3a) and C2 and C3 (Fig. 3b), show that the earthquakes which cluster on map view (Fig. 5) is largely supported by events originating from the Benioff zone, with a negligible contribution from the upper plate fore-arc seismicity. We have suggested elsewhere (Mukhopadhyay et al. 2010; Mukhopadhyay et al. 2011) that in regions of profuse seismicity, identifying earthquake cluster zones might actually serve as the first step to statistically segregate segments of recurrent seismicity and then to proceed with other probes in and around the cluster. It is noteworthy that seismic clusters in other active belts also delineate zones of strain accumulation and destined for periodic release. To estimate this release through earthquakes in the time domain

one has to fall back on other precursors, be its statistical, geophysical or mixed approach. Seismic clusters C1 - C3 in the NBA originating from the Benioff zone are sub-parallel to the trend of the Burmese orogen; assuming that the individual cluster ruptures in a single earthquake, we employed the empirical relation between rupture length (RL) and size of earthquake (M) as a function of type of faulting (reverse/strike slip). The strike lengths of clusters C1 to C4 were measured on the map (Fig.5). These strike lengths are indicative of the maximum rupture length (RL) that can be generated by an earthquake. On measuring RL, the expected size of earthquake is empirically calculated using the equation: log RL = -2.86 + 0.63M (for reverse faults) or log RL = -3.55 + 0.74M (for strike-slip fault) (Wells and Coppersmith, 1994). We adopt the equation for reverse fault for C1 to C3 since earthquakes within the clusters show predominant thrust movement (CMT data in Table 2 and also refer to Figure 6 in Mukhopadhyay et al. 2010). For cluster C4, which is generated by a predominant strike slip motion along SSF, we used the second equation. These estimates gives a first approximation on the Maximum Credible Earthquake (MCE) that C1 (7.93 M), C2 (7.56 M), C3 (7.38 M) and C4 (6.91 M) can generate. Notice that the recorded earthquake magnitudes from the NBA Benioff

Fig.5. Seismic clusters, C1 through C4 delineated by point density analysis. The clusters are designated as source zones of recurrent seismicity including large earthquakes. For other abbreviations refer to Fig.1.
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zone are lower than these estimated values. Larger rupture length cutting across the clusters is not considered improbable, although unlikely.
Seismicity Pattern, Cycles and Temporal Quiescence

Seismic quiescence is defined as the period where the seismicity rate decreases to levels significantly below the normal seismicity. Seismic cycle of an active seismic domain is divided into alternate temporal segments of the seismic quiescence (Q1, Q2 and Q3) and an increase in background seismicity (Scholz, 1988). Q1 is defined as a quiescence period between a mainshock aftershock sequence and a further increase in background seismicity; Q2 is a lull period between the previously defined increase in background seismicity and further renewed seismicity, while Q3 is defined as a short time-respite of seismicity prior to another main shock aftershock sequence. Though statistical tests for significance of quiescences are available in literature (see Zoller et al. 2002 for details), Scholz (1988; 2002) has used quiescence as an integral part of seismic cycle to forecast the earthquake in an area without focussing on its statistical significance. It is therefore emphasized that

occurrence of a major shock immediately after the Q3 quiescence is of significance by itself. For evaluation of the seismic cycles precisely, the NBA subduction zone is partitioned into two broad zones having identifiable seismic characteristics (Zones I and II; Fig.1) that are amenable to produce larger shocks. Shallow foci back-arc seismicity, located east of the volcanic line and distinctly associated with the SSF is not taken into account here for further study. Thus, the basic seismicity pattern in NBA with cycle and quiescence is evaluated for the period 1954 through February 2011. In Zone I five large earthquakes (magnitude > 6.0) occurred during the period while in Zone II there is only one event. Tectonically, Zone I and Zone II are different. Zone I is with NNE-SSW trending subduction interface oriented sub-parallel/parallel to Indian plate movement vector with well developed volcanic arc, whereas, Zone II has N-S trending subduction front, tangential to the Indian plate movement vector with well developed subduction zone, back-arc basin and volcanic front (Figs. 1 and 3). In Zone I, a large earthquake occurred on 21.03.1954 (M 7.4; h 180 km). This is followed by a post seismic

Table 1. Earthquake cycles and quiescence model for North Burma subduction zone Cycle in Zone I Year 1954 1955 - 1968 1969 - 1974 1975 - 1977 1978 - 1988 1988 - 1989 1990 - 1995 1995 - 2000 2001 - 2004 2005 2006 - 2010 No of events 1 17 (Mb 4.6) 20 (Mb > 4) 6 (Mb 4) 78 (Mb 4) 28 (Mb 4) 66 (Mb 4) 83 (Mb 4) 100 (Mb 4) 11(Mb 4) 52 (Mb 4) Mmax 7.4 5.7 5.6 4.7 0.96 5.7 5.3 5.9 5.2 4.9 5.7 1.08 5.9 1.08 0.86 0.85 1.08 b-value 0.87 Observation / Analysis on earthquake cycle as per Scholz (1988) Occurrence of 21.03.1954 (M 7.4) Post Seismic quiescence: Q1 Increase in background seismicity Intermediate term quiescence for 3 years: Q2 with comparatively low seismicity Increase in background seismicity Q3 of 25 days Occurrence of 06.08.1988 (M 6.6) Increase in background seismicity Q3 (?) of 10 daysOccurrence of 09.01.1990 (M 6.1) Increase in background seismicity Q3 (?) of 2 days Occurrence of 06.05.1995 (M 6.3) Post Seismic quiescence: Q1 Increase in background seismicity Intermediate term quiescence for 1 year: Q2 with comparatively low seismicity Increase in background seismicity Q3 of 7 days Occurrence of 04.02.2011 (M 6.3)

Cycle in Zone II 1956 - 1968 1969 - 1995 1996 - 2004 2005 - 2006 2007 - 2010 20 (Mb 4.6) 160 (Mb 4) 185 (Mb 4) 23 (Mb 4) 45 (Mb 4) 5.9 5.4 5.1 5.7 1.08 5.5 0.86 0.80 Background Seismicity Q3 of 8 months Occurrence of 17.10.1969 (M 6.1) Post Seismic quiescence: Q1 Increase in background seismicity Intermediate term quiescence for 2 years: Q2 with comparatively low seismicity Increase in background seismicity Q3 has not set in; last event is recorded on 25.06.2011 (4.7)

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quiescence (Q1) from 1955 to 1968 with occurrence of only 17 earthquake events in 14 years (Table 1; temporal b-values referred in the table are discussed in the next section). An increase in the background seismicity (20 events) is clearly noticed over the next 6 years pertaining to the time interval 1969 1974; followed by intermediate term quiescence (Q2, only 6 events; Mmax 4.7)) during 1975-1977. The next increase in background seismicity with 78 events between 1978 and 1988, though considered significant could partly be due to the increase in earthquake detection threshold in the region. In the year 1988, five foreshocks could distinctly be linked with the ensuing large event along with quiescence (Q3) of 25 days prior to the large earthquake of 6.8.1988 [M 6.6; h 100 km; (Mw 7.3 EHB)]. The downward migration of seismic activity (Mogi, 1988) up to a depth of 139 km prior to the main event of 100 km depth is also noticed. Thus there were signals for a possible medium term forecasting of the 1988 earthquake. In fact Gupta and Singh (1986, 1989), Gupta (1987) through an analysis of precursory earthquake swarms made a forecast valid up to 1990 that eventually struck in August 1988. This event is followed by 17 aftershocks all along the ruptured area that increases the overall seismicity of the region in the following two years 1988 and 1989 that spawn 28 earthquake events. The large earthquake of 6.8.1988 has increased the seismic propensity within the Benioff zone to such an extent that the following years (between 1989 and 1995), the area witnessed a huge increase in seismicity with an occurrence of two large events [9.1.1990 (M 6.1; h120 km) and 6.5.1995 (M 6.3; h 117)] with doubtful Q3 quiescence of 10 and 2 days respectively. Noticeable precursory quiescence (Q1 or Q2) prior to these events is either absent or camouflaged by an increase in the background seismic activity. Seismicity pattern in the following years (1995 through February 2011) is quite interesting in the light of the precursor study. The precursory cycle starts with Q1 (1995-2000, 83 events); increase in background seismicity (2001-2004, 100 events),

followed by Q 2 (2005, 11 events) and increase in background seismicity (2006 2010, 52 events). This increase in background seismicity is followed by a Q3 quiescence of 7 days with the occurrence of a main shock of 04.02.2011 (M 6.3; h 88 km). In fact, after studying the seismic cycle-quiescence pattern utilizing earthquake data between 1969 through June 2008, we speculated an impending event of M 6.0 or greater from this part of NBA (Dasgupta et al. 2010); the event actually occurred on 04.02.2011. The analysis is next extended further south to Zone II, following the same approach adopted for Zone I. In zone II, there is a background seismicity of 20 events during the period 1956 1968, followed by a Q3 quiescence of 8 months before a large shock on 17.10.1969 (M 6.1; h 124 km). This earthquake is again from the deeper level of the subducting Indian plate (Fig. 3b). The precursory cycle starts with Q1 (1969-1995, 160 events in 25 years) followed by increase in background seismicity (1996-2004, 185 events in 9 years); this is succeeded by intermediate term quiescenceQ2 (20052006, 23 events) and increase in background seismicity (2007 2010, 45 events) (Table 1). This period of increase in background seismicity is still ongoing (as evidenced by an earthquake of M 4.7 that occurred on 25.06.2011) and Q3 quiescence has not set in. It is probable that Zone- II is waiting for a large earthquake (estimated M 6.0 - 6.5) to occur possibly within 2012, if it follows the trend of the Zone I.
Temporal b-value Characterization in Zone I and Zone II

The temporal distribution of b-value within the zones is calculated by maximum-likelihood method (Aki, 1965; Ustu, 1965; Bender, 1983), b = loge / (M Mmin), where M denotes the mean magnitude and Mmin the minimum magnitude of completeness in the given sample]. As b-value is dependent on data, the earthquake data has been treated separately as per the techniques described by Kulhanek (2005) to make the calculated b-values statistically robust and tectonically significant. The b-value for different time periods from 1969 through 2010 (Table 1; Fig.6) in Zone I indicates that there is an increase in b-value prior to a mainshock. The b-value raise from 0.87 to 0.96 prior to the 6.8.1988 (6.6) thrust type of earthquake (Table 2) corroborates well with the calculated values given by Schorlemmer et al. (2005) for thrust earthquakes. Immediate increase in Fig.6. Temporal variation in b-value with corresponding shocks in the Zone I (left the b-value to 1.08 is due to a possible large heterogeneities in the area. While there is panel) and Zone II (right panel) of NBA
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Table 2. CMT solution for major earthquakes of the Burmese Arc in Zone - I (source HRVD)

Date

Hr:Mn:Sec

Lat.

Long.

Mb

Mw

T T P P Focal Focal Focal Focal Focal Focal axis axis axis axis Plane_1 Plane_1 Plane_1 Plane_2 Plane_2 Plane_2 Plunge Azimuth Plunge Azimuth strike dip Rake strike dip rake 65 58 69 58 117 142 94 105 5 20 9 1 217 16 209 196 284 140 278 133 45 32 39 54 55 139 60 131 148 267 135 257 54 69 57 53 120 64 112 48

Type of fault movement* Thrust Thrust with strike slip component Thrust Thrust with strike slip component

6.8.1988 9.1.1990 6.5.1995 4.2.2011

00:36:38 18:51:36 01:59:14 13:54:6.7

25.2 24.4 24.8 25.14

94.89 94.95 95.02 94.80

6.6 6.1 6.3 6.3

7.3 6.3 6.4 6.3

* Following Aki Richards convention on slip

no significant temporal b-value precursor registered prior to the earthquakes of 9.1.1990 (M 6.1) and 6.5.1995 (M 6.3) which occurred within a b-value of ~ 0.85, an increase of bvalue from 0.85 to 1.08 before the 04.02.2011 (M 6.3) earthquake is worth noting (Figure 6). Similarly, an increase in b-value 0.86-0.80-1.08 in Zone II (Table 1; Fig. 6) exhibits a form of intermediate time recovery precursor. This high b-value also indicates either or in combination of the following phenomena - increase in stress intensity and crack density, creep along fault planes, decrease in effective stress due to shear slip on subsidiary fault and changes in the pore fluid pressure. Presently (2005 2010), the b-value is 1.08. This increase in b-value corresponds to a reduction in the stress intensity, strain hardening prior to a critical rupture by precursory slip behind an accelerating crack front and sudden stress drop (Meredith et al., 1990). This intermediate b-value also indicates an impending earthquake, with thrust slip, having appreciable strike slip movement in Zone II of NBA. If Zone II follows the trend of Zone I, a large earthquake (~ M 6.5) may occur within 2012.
CONCLUSIONS

The seismic pattern in the NBA studied here using data from 1954 through February 2011 brings out several salient characters of the plate margin seismicity and precursory evidences. Spatial clusters of seismic events in regions of high seismic propensity are segregated through statistical analysis and tagged as source zones of recurrent earthquakes. Identification, mapping and validation through forthcoming events should constrain the geometry of

these clusters and designated as precursor zones in the parlance of medium to long- term earthquake forecasting. Within the constraints of present dataset, we postulate that the future earthquake source zone in NBA are the clusters C1 to C3 with projected MCE to the order of 7.38 M to 7.93 M. The cluster analysis thus provides possible location and size window of the future earthquake in a seismically active domain; other precursor studies should follow surrounding the clusters to shortlist temporal precursors. Since the earthquake of magnitude 7.4 in ZoneI that occurred on 21.03.1954, a complete seismic cycle of 37 years with four main shock events [6.8.1988 (6.6), 9.1.1990 (6.1), 6.5.1995 (6.3) and 04.02.2011 (6.3)] with different phases of quiescence (Q1, Q2 and Q3) and active seismicity has been identified. A forecast was made previously (Dasgupta et al. 2010) for the earthquake of 4 February 2011. Similarly, in ZoneII, a seismic cycle has been initiated by an earthquake dated 17.10.1969 (6.1) which is followed by Q1 (1969-1995, 160 events), increase in background seismicity (1996-2004, 185 events), Q2 (2005-2006, 23 events) and again an increase in background seismicity (2007 2010, 45 events). The increase in back ground seismicity is still continuing and fortunately Q3 quiescence does not engrave. We postulate that NBA Zone-II is waiting for a large earthquake (M 6.0- 6.5) to occur possibly within 2012, if it follows the trend of Zone I. The temporal b value analysis in the source zones indicates an increase in b value prior to main shocks in this region that may be regarded as precursor. The moderate bvalue (0.8 to 1) in the source zones is indicative of a future thrust type of earthquake.

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(Received: 10 October 2011; Revised form accepted: 14 November 2011)

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