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In this paper, we address the question of whether the Malaysian property sector is in a bubble. As the property sector is very diverse, the enquiry is restricted to the residential sector in the four key economic states of KL, Selangor, Johor and Penang. Collectively, these four states contribute 75% of total residential sales and 60% of total residential transaction volume. Based on both statistics and income analysis, the Malaysian property sector is in a bubble. From a statistical perspective, measures of property activities such as property sales, transaction volume and sales to GDP ratio have all shown a marked departure from historical trends since 2007. From an income perspective, property prices are now unaffordable to the average household. Due to property prices growing at almost 3x the rate of income in recent years, Malaysia median multiple has leapt to 6.1x, well above the 3x mark that is considered affordable globally. We estimate that, in general, the average Klang Valley household can only afford a property in the RM400,000 range implying that the farther removed property prices are from this range, the more exposed they are to a correction. Specifically, considering that most listed property developers are still launching units at the RM500,000 to RM700,000 range even for the low end of their sales portfolio, we believe they are vulnerable to a correction. Too many developers are attempting to sell too many units to too few people at too high a price. The cause of the bubble can be traced to callous policies by the government and financial innovation by the property developers that took place in the last five years. In particular, the main culprits are the removal of RPGT in 2007, the all-time low interest rates in 2009 and the DIBS scheme introduced by property developers in 2009. In summary, driven by low interest rates, accommodative administrative policies and financial innovation through DIBS, the Malaysian residential property sector is currently in a bubble. Furthermore, the bubble is now at its end stage as prices are now too far removed from fundamentals. Investors should adopt a cautious stance as the sector will have limited upside potential and a sudden correction is possible.
Robin HU
robin@nonameresearch.com
Table of Contents
Property Bubbles in General ...................................................................................... 3 The mechanics of property bubbles ....................................................................... 3 Why are property bubbles deadly? ........................................................................ 4 Scope and Method ..................................................................................................... 5 Scope restricted to residential in key economic states .......................................... 5 Two methods: Statistical analysis and income analysis ......................................... 5 The Statistical Viewpoint ............................................................................................ 7 Residential sales Marked increase since 2007 .................................................... 7 Rising sales to GDP ratio ......................................................................................... 8 Transaction volume Similar to sales, marked rise since 2007 ............................. 9 Residential price Take it with a pinch of salt ..................................................... 10 The Income Viewpoint ............................................................................................. 14 Malaysian household spending pattern ............................................................... 14 The average Klang Valley household affordability is RM400k ............................. 14 House price growing faster than household income ........................................... 16 Rising price to income ratio .................................................................................. 16 Why Residential Property is in a Bubble .................................................................. 18 Review of key points from previous sections ....................................................... 18 Why Msians cant afford what the listed developers are selling ......................... 19 Where is the bubble then? ................................................................................... 20 Factors Contributing to the Bubble .......................................................................... 21 A tale of two halves .............................................................................................. 21 Bad policy decisions nurtured the bubble ............................................................ 21 The Removal of RPGT ............................................................................................... 23 Malaysia RPGT regime .......................................................................................... 23 RPGT removal spurred property activities ........................................................... 23 The Nasty DIBS ......................................................................................................... 25 The background and nature of DIBS..................................................................... 25 DIBS as a speculative tool ..................................................................................... 25 DIBS speculation drove the bubble ...................................................................... 27 How the Bubble Happened ...................................................................................... 29 Conclusion ................................................................................................................ 30
Bubbles also deflate differently depending on whether credit was involved. Property deflation without credit. If the preceding bubble was formed sans credit then the deflation directly impacts only property speculators. The property developers may also feel the pain due to an overall slowing market but banks and government are generally not affected as under this scenario, property purchases involve only the speculator and the developer Property deflation with credit. In contrast, if the preceding bubble was facilitated by credit then a debt deflation could ensue. A property speculator facing rapidly falling property price will quickly accumulate negative equity. For example, on a 10% downpayment basis, a speculator will put in RM10,000 for a RM100,000 house and borrow the remaining RM90,000. If the property subsequently declined 15% to RM85,000, the speculator now has negative equity of RM5,000
Debt deflation is malignant as it could lead to mortgage defaults which if sufficiently pervasive, will impact not only the property sector but the banks and the larger economy as a whole. Faced with defaults, banks will tighten lending which will then lead to further decline in property price, reinforcing the downward spiral. If the problem is serious enough, banks could suffer losses or outright collapse. Property bubbles are frequently credit bubbles. Frequently, property bubbles are deadly as they are generally credit bubbles due to the pervasiveness of mortgages in the property sector. Downpayment requirement varies from countries to countries and from time to time. In Malaysia, downpayment is only 10% for the first purchase translating into an inbuilt leverage of 10x. Subsequent purchase may attract downpayment of up to 30% resulting in a still high leverage of 3.3x. In short, because property bubbles are frequently credit bubbles, the fallout from the bursting of property bubbles generally extend beyond the property sector.
In statistical analysis, statistics from NAPIC is used to show that: both property sales value and property transaction volume have behaved abnormally in the years since 2007 these changes are caused by specific events that took place circa 20072009
For statistical analysis to succeed, both points need to be established as sales value and transaction volume exhibiting a break from historical trend may not be a sufficient cause for concern by itself. It is only a concern if it can be shown that the break from historical trend was caused by specific events. This establishes causation and help explains the bubble. In income analysis, we attempt to show that the average property price has increased materially beyond the reach of the average households. The income approach relies on inconsistency between the income data and the property price data to demonstrate that both cannot be correct. Either the property price is
correctly captured and the average income is understated or the average income is correctly captured and the property price is too high. The two methods above can be referred to in isolation. One point to note is that statistics is a very crude tool as statistics aggregates away substantial amount of important details. For example, using the median price for houses essentially takes only the middle of the price distribution and ignores prices on both the left and right tails of the distribution. As such, even if prices changed substantially at the tails (say high-end condominium prices doubled), the median remains unaffected. All in all, the income approach is preferred due to its inbuilt consistency check. Given a property price, the range of income and mortgage rates that would make the property affordable can be easily derived. Here we do the reverse by first establishing a range income and then use that to show that the current property prices are unaffordable.
Source: NAPIC
75% of sales came from just four states. Geographically, Selangor was the single largest state for residential property sales contributing RM23bn or 37% of RM62bn residential sales. This was followed by KL (18%, RM11bn), Penang (12%, RM8bn) and Johor (8%, RM5bn). In total, 75% of all residential sales came from these four states. In fact, Selangor and KL by themselves already occupied 55% of sales.
Figure 2: Residential sales by geography 2011
Source: NAPIC
Marked increase in sales since 2007. Residential sales has shown a marked growth since 2007. Annual residential sales have doubled to RM62bn in 2011 from just RM29bn in 2006. This is an annualized growth rate of 16% CAGR over the five year period 2006-2011
In comparison, residential sales grew by only 6% CAGR over the preceding five year period 2001-2006
Table 1: Comparison on residential sales growth over two five year periods Five year 2001-2006 Growth in residential sales value (CAGR) 6% p.a. Five year 2006-2011 16% p.a.
Growing even during global recession? Looking closer at Figure 3, it can be seen that the years 2007, 2010 and 2011 were years with very strong +20% growth. In fact, at 13%, 2008 was a year of very strong growth as well considering that sales in the fourth quarter of 2008 were effectively decimated by the Lehman crisis of Sep 2008. Seen in this light, it appears that the Malaysian residential property sector has been on an upswing for at least half a decade punctuated only by the global recession in 2009. Even then, the 1% growth in 2009 was still good considering it took place against a backdrop of global recession1.
Figure 3: Malaysia residential sales and growth 1989-2011
Source: NAPIC
We will show how the Malaysian property sector has been sustained by artificial tools beginning 2007 in later parts of this report but for now note that the property sector began to take off in earnest in 2007 and continued growing despite the global recession
to have been driven by endogenous factors unique to the Malaysian property sector, resulting in property sales growing faster than GDP.
Figure 4: Malaysia residential sales to GDP 2000-2011
Source: NAPIC
Marked rise in transaction volume since 2007. Similar to sales, there has been a marked rise in transaction volume since 2007. From Figure 6 below, it can be seen that transaction volume spiked to 9% in 2007 in stark contrast to the 0% in 2006 and -7% in 2005. Then transaction volume rose another 9% in 2008, declined 2% in 2009 due to global recession before resuming at 7% in 2010 and a huge 19% in 2011.
Incidentally, in terms of transaction volume, KL and Selangor are mirror image of each other. About half of KL transactions were condominiums/apartments while about half of Selangor transactions were terraced houses. On the flipside, 20% of KL sales were terraced houses while 20% Selangor transactions were condominiums/apartments.
Source: NAPIC
Spike in volume a departure from historical trend. To put into perspective how abnormal the spike in transaction volume, the table below compares two five-year periods. In the five years period 2001-2006, transaction volume was as good as flat at 0.7% CAGR In the five years period 2006-2011, transaction volume grew dramatically to 8% CAGR, a stark contrast to the preceding five year period 2001-2006
Figure 7: Growth in residential transaction volume Five year 2001-2006 Growth in residential transaction volume (CAGR) 0.7% p.a. Five year 2006-2011 8% p.a.
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Secondly, what exactly is the market price and what does it mean to have a market price? In fact, we think the notion of a market price is itself incorrect and misleading. The term last transacted price is probably more apt and as any stock investor can elucidate, last price is not the same as market price at all
Official statistics a bit removed from reality. Theory aside, the table below highlights how unrealistic the official property price statistics can be. For example The average price for a 2-3 storey terraced house in Selangor was captured at RM300,000 in 2009. Any Malaysians will agree that this is unrealistic. A terraced house in Petaling Jaya would already cost at least RM700,000. Farther out in Shah Alam, the price would probably be at closer to RM500,000 in 2009 (RM650,000 in 2011). In fact, one would be lucky to get a mid-end condominium for RM300,000 in PJ what more RM300,000 for a 2 storey terraced house Similarly, the price of a terraced house in KL was recorded as RM519,000. This is again unrealistic. One would be lucky to afford a 1-bedroom apartment in KL for RM500,000
These price points are similarly divorced from reality in Johor and Penang as well. Note also that the price increase of 2.8% for Selangor is also highly suspicious. The actual rate is probably closer to 10%-15% on a crude estimate basis.
Table 2: Price for 2-3 storey terraced house RM KL Selangor Johor Penang Negeri Sembilan Perak Melaka Pahang Terengganu* Kelantan* Perlis* Sabah Sarawak
Source: NAPIC, *1-1/2 storey terraced house
2000 288k 233k 176k 196k 162k 102k 136k N/A 66k 73k 68k 132k N/A
2009 519k 300k 202k 387k 312k 164k 209k N/A 119k 93k 108k 295k N/A
CAGR 00-09 6.7% 2.8% 1.5% 7.8% 7.5% 5.4% 4.9% N/A 6.8% 2.7% 5.2% 9.3% N/A
In line with the above, we will rely as little as possible on NAPIC price statistics and property price indices. Instead, we will rely on other sources such as actual real estate agent quotations, advertised prices and developers launch prices. Official property price growth 4.4% looks too low. Nonetheless, below is a quick view of some price statistics from NAPIC for completeness purposes as these data points are frequently quoted. According to the official statistics from NAPIC, in the decade between 2001-2011, Malaysia overall property price increased by 4.4% per annum. More recently, in the five year period between 2006-2011, the growth was
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5.1% CAGR with higher than average growth seen in the last two years 2010 (8.2% per annum) and 2011 (6.6% per annum).
Figure 8: Malaysia residential price growth
Source: NAPIC
Geographically, the average increase in property price in the five year period between 2006-2011 was 6.3% for KL, 5.7% for Selangor, 2.6% for Johor and 5.8% for Penang.
Figure 9: Residential price growth in KL, Selangor, Penang and Johor
Source: NAPIC
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Actual property price growth closer to 10%-15%. In our view, the official statistics tend to understate actual increase in property price (perhaps due to either their sampling or averaging methods). This can be substantiated by referring to the actual launch price disclosed by the listed property developers. Take SPSB developments for example: A SPSB two storey terraced house in Setia Alam was sold for RM218,000 in 2004 while in comparison a similar house in the township was launched at RM668,000 in 2011. This represents an annualised increase of 17% per annum In Setia Eco Park, semi-detached that were first launched in 2005 at around RM600,000 now command prices above RM2 million, an annualised increase of 22% per annum.
Such price increase is not unique to SPSB but can be observed in developments launched by almost all other developers such MSGB, E&O, BRDB, GAM, IJMLD, etc. As such, it is estimated that the actual increase in property price is not 4.4% per annum as calculated by NAPIC but closer to 10%-15% per annum based on the developers launch prices and secondary sales price.
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2009 447 79 583 100 33 361 147 121 39 285 270 2,465
3 4 5 6
Department of Statistics, Malaysia 2009 Urban household 75% of Malaysian household earns less than RM5,000 per month
The current (floating) mortgage rate is closer to 3.75%-4.00% but we do not think this is sustainable. We have used 5% which is not too different from the current fixed mortgage rate 4.8%
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Average Klang Valley individual can only afford a RM200k unit. The official average household income of RM4,700 per month is an average taken across the whole of Malaysia and as such may be lower than the average income in key urban areas. In particular, key economic areas such as the Klang Valley should have higher household income. This is indeed the case with the official average household income for Klang Valley closer to RM7,000 per month. Let us assume that the average income in Klang Valley is higher than the official statistics of RM7,000. In fact, let us assume it is RM8,000 or alternatively, the average income for an individual in Klang Valley is half of this or RM4,000. From this gross income, we will then deduct statutory contributions and typical monthly expenses in order to derive as the residual, the maximum income available for housing. The calculation is shown in Table 4 below. As can be seen, based on an average individual gross income of RM4,000, after deductions for statutory contributions and monthly expenses, only RM1,110 is available for mortgage payment (note we have not imputed savings). For RM1,100 per month, the average individual in Klang Valley can only afford a property around RM200,000. This is 33% lower than the average terraced house price of RM300,000 in Selangor and 60% lower than the average terraced house price of RM516,000 in KL. In other words, if you are an average individual residing in Klang Valley, then even with no savings, you cannot afford a terraced house.
Table 4: Estimated maximum amount available for housing (individual) RM Gross income Tax EPF Net income Food Transport, parking, car installment Others Max amount available for housing 2009 4,000 (300) (440) 3,260 (500) (1,200) (450) 1,110
Average Klang Valley household can only afford a RM400k unit. Now if we approximate a household maximum available fund for housing by simply multiplying the above RM1,100 limit for an individual by two, then the average household in Klang Valley can only afford a property around RM400,000 which is actually close to average terraced house price of RM300,000 in Selangor and RM516,000 in KL. In summary, based on statistics, it can be concluded that The average household cannot afford an average terraced house in Selangor or KL The average Klang Valley individual also cannot afford an average terraced house in Selangor or KL Only with the combined income of two Klang Valley individuals, devoting all their income to mortgage repayment (no savings, after deductions for statutory contributions and monthly expenses), can a terraced house in Selangor or KL be considered affordable
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House Price Index 2001-2011 6.0% 3.9% 2.0% 5.0% 4.4% 3.7%
But in reality, property price growth 3x that of income. As we highlighted previously, price statistics from NAPIC should be taken with a pinch of salt as the 4.4% estimated rate of growth in house price appears too low. Instead, based on the developers launch price, the average increase in property price should be closer to 10%-15% p.a. in the last five years. On this basis, the average property price increase (10%-15%) is actually almost 3x that of the average salary increase (3.7%). In other words, property price has increased disproportionately faster than income increase in the last five years.
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Table 6: DIHA affordability classification Median multiple 3x and under 3.1x to 4.0x 4.1x to 5.0x 5.1x and over
Applying the above definition, DIHA derived the following median multiples for the selected countries below. Some of the countries considered unaffordable based on this definition includes Australia, Canada, Hong Kong, New Zealand and United Kingdom. In contrast, the two countries that has just experienced a property bubble, Ireland and United States, now have median multiple closer to the historical 3x.
Table 7: Median multiple for selected countries 2012 National median 6.7 4.5 12.6 3.4 6.4 5.0 3.1
Australia Canada Hong Kong Ireland New Zealand United Kingdom United States
Source: DIHA
With a multiple 6.1x, Malaysia is unaffordable. Based on official statistics7, the mean household annual household income in Klang Valley is RM84,000 (RM7,000 x 12) the mean price of a terraced house is RM516,000 in KL and RM300,000 in Selangor
This implies a median multiple of 3.6x in Selangor and 6.1x in KL. Considering current launches are still being priced at minimum in the RM500,000 to RM700,000 range in Selangor and KL, the actual median multiple is closer to 5.9x to 8.3x, significantly above the 3x that DHIA considers affordable.
Table 8: Malaysia median multiple 2011 RM 84,000 516,000 300,000 Median multiple 6.1x 3.6x
Annual household income Klang Valley Mean price terraced house KL Mean price terraced house Selangor
Here we used mean instead of median as per DIHA due to data limitation
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And based on income, we arrived at the following: 4. The average Klang Valley household can afford only properties in the RM400,000 price range (pg 15) 5. House prices have grown faster than income. Our estimated actual rate of growth of house price of 10%-15% is almost 3x the 3.7% growth in income (pg 16) 6. Malaysia median multiple of 6.1x is significantly above the 3x that DHIA considers affordable (pg 17) Therefore based on both statistics and income, all six separate indicators point to the same conclusion that the Malaysian property sector is now in a bubble8. And by bubble, we mean that the sentiments in the property market is now overly positive and removed from fundamental resulting in the average property prices being pushed beyond the affordability of the average household. All these six indicators are independent of each other yet they are consistent in their conclusion. Not only that, the statistics also singled out 2007 as the year where the bubble took off in earnest. The next section will provide an explanation for this.
As a reminder, our scope is restricted only to residential property segment in KL, Selangor, Johor and Penang
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Why Msians cant afford what the listed developers are selling
Only 12% can afford what the listed developers are selling. Out of a total transaction volume of 270k units for Malaysia, the four states, KL, Selangor, Johor and Penang contributed 60% or 161k units. And out of this 161k units sold, only a slim 12% or 20k units were priced at RM500,000 and above. 5,600 units from KL 10,300 units from Selangor 900 units from Johor 3,200 units from Penang
Expectedly, 23% of residential units in KL were transacted at RM500,000 and above. However, once we moved out of KL, the ratio drops quickly to 14% in Selangor, 3% in Johor and 11% in Penang. This has important implication for the listed property developers. As the listed developers sales portfolio typically consists of property priced at RM500,000 and above, this implies that the listed property developers are effectively serving only the top 12% of the market and with 50% of that market concentrated in Selangor. It is a narrow market and they are hardly catering to the mass market at all.
Table 10: Residential units sold by price range 2011 KL 12,874 5,807 3,402 2,231 24,314 23% Selangor 47,485 17,551 7,286 3,022 75,344 14% Johor 26,440 3,722 775 147 31,084 3% Penang 21,347 6,095 2,401 831 30,674 11%
<RM250k RM250k to RM500k RM500k to RM1m >RM1m Total % more than RM500k
Source: NAPIC
Current selling price implies too high a median multiple. On pg 15, it was highlighted that the average household in Klang Valley can only afford a property around RM400,000 which is close to average terraced house price of RM300,000 in Selangor and RM516,000 in KL. However, most of the listed property developers are already launching units at a minimum RM500,000 to RM700,000 range, higher than the official average terraced price of RM300,000 in Selangor and RM516,000 in KL. At this RM500,000 to RM700,000 price range, the median multiple jumps to 6.0x to 8.3x, materially above the 3x that DHIA considers affordable. If we consider the average selling price of properties launched by listed developers (which is closer to RM700,000) instead of the average terraced house price of RM300,000 in Selangor and RM516,000 in KL (both already understated in our view), then the problem of affordability becomes clear. Most people simply cannot afford what the developers are selling. In fact, 88% of Malaysians cannot afford to buy what the listed developers are selling.
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Table 10 is a handy guide. As can be seen, once outside KL, property priced at RM500,000 and above are effectively catering to top 12% of buyers. More specifically, top 14% in Selangor, top 3% in Johor and top 11% in Penang. Cumulatively, this amounts to 5,600 units in KL and 14,500 units in the remaining states of Selangor, Johor and Penang (and this was during 2011, a boom year for property). There is simply not enough households that can afford that many units priced at such range.
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Why do the two periods differ so much in growth rate? And why was there a spurt in activity from 2007 onwards? The answer lies with bad policy decisions.
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Source: CEIC
The government provided tax relief on interest paid on housing loan up to RM10,000 a year for three years for properties purchased between Mar 2009 and Dec 2010 From 1 January 2008, the government allowed monthly EPF withdrawal for housing purposes9 Liberalisation of Foreign Investment Committee ruling on foreign purchases, removing the cap on the number of houses foreigners can buy and to allowing them to borrow from local banks
Ripe for a bubble. An all-time low interest rates, removal of capital gains tax, interest deductibility and other administrative policies really ensure that property prices have nowhere else to go but up. In fact, it is almost as if the government wanted a property bubble as they seemed to have used every tricks in the bag to make sure the bubble inflates. Nevertheless, in our view, the single most important driver of the bubble was actually introduced not by the government but by the private sector. This is the DIBS scheme introduced by private developers in January 2009 (specifically it was first introduced by SPSB). Above and beyond the aforementioned callous policy decisions by the government, it was really DIBS that provided the afterburner to propel the market to new speculative height. The fact that low interest rates stoke property prices has already been abundantly discussed by others so we will not dwell further on this. Instead, we will look at RPGT and DIBS in the next section as they relate specifically to Malaysia.
The impact of this is best explained in SPSB own words and we quote verbatim The governments landmark decision to allow monthly EPF withdrawals to fund mortgages, which is estimated to unleash some RM9.6bn annually, will profoundly impact the property market. We expect this to spur demand for a wide spectrum of properties across the board as the 5 million EPF contributors take advantage of this flexibility to boost their purchasing power
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The current RPGT regime of 10% is very mild both with reference to historical rates of 30% and also in comparison to other countries.
Table 11: Malaysia RPGT regime Period A Nov75 31 May 03 30% 20% 15% 5% Nil Period B 1 Jun 03 31 May 04 No RPGT Period C 1 Jun 04 31 Mar 07 30% 20% 15% 5% Nil Period D 1 Apr 07 31 Dec 09 No RPGT Period E 1 Jan 10 31 Dec 11 5% 5% 5% 5% Nil Period F 1 Jan 12 current 10% 5% 5% 5% Nil
Disposal within 2 years Disposal in 3rd year Disposal in 4th year Disposal in 5th year Disposal after 5th year
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This can be observed again the second time RPGT was removed in 20072008 where sales leapt 24% and 13% in 2007 and 2008. Again this is in contrast to the -3% and 4% recorded in the preceding years 2005 and 2006 The year 2009 was an exception as despite RPGT being removed, sales growth was only 1% due to the global recession The most recent years 2010 and 2011 were also years of high growth as RPGT was reintroduced not at the historical 30% but at the almost negligible rate of 5%
Source: NAPIC
Similarly, from a property transaction perspective, the same behavior can be observed. The years where RPGT was removed were years where transaction volume leapt strongly and departed markedly from years where RPGT were in force (see Figure 12).
Figure 12: Malaysia residential transaction growth 2001-2011
Source: NAPIC
Therefore, historically at least, the removal of RPGT has consistently stimulated property price and transaction volume.
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10
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remedied this problem by introducing two attributes that makes it attractive to speculate on properties. Firstly, the DIBS temporarily removed the mortgage cost component by absorbing interest cost during construction. Without the mortgage cost to act as restraint, any growth in property price results in speculative profit immediately Secondly, reducing the down payment from 10% to 5% doubled the already high leverage from 10x to 20x and significantly magnifies any speculative profit
How DIBS create speculative profit. The aforementioned (1) interest cost absorption and (2) reduction of down payment from 10% to 5% work in tandem to create large speculative profits as long the property price does not decline11. Even if the property price just rose 3% in a year, the speculative profit can be very large. For example12, Assume that a speculator purchased a property for RM500,000 and sold it a year later after it has appreciated by 3% to RM515,000 The down payment is 5% or RM25,000 The gross proceed is RM515,000 less RM500,000 or RM15,000. The return is RM15,000/RM25,000 = 60%. (Alternatively, this can be derived by multiplying the asset appreciation 3% by the leverage 20x)
The reason why property speculation is now profitable is because the cost of servicing the debt during the construction period, which served as the single largest hurdle rate in the short term, has been nullified by the interest absorption clause under DIBS. Note also that the RPGT was only reintroduced in January 2010. This means that when the DIBS was first introduced in January 2009. All the speculative gain was tax free13. From bad to worse. DIBS, instead of being a temporary marketing tool, has now become a permanent fixture in property sales. Three years after it was initially conceived in January 2009 by SPSB, it is still very much alive and very much more virulent. The current variant of DIBS has become even more of a speculative tool compared to its original variant. Take for example the DIBS offered by MSGB for its M-City properties recently in 2012. In addition to the standard interest and incidental costs absorption as per the original DIBS scheme, MSGB has gone one up and introduced the following incentives 1. Reduced down payment from 5% to 2% and thereby increasing the leverage factor from an already high 20x to 50x! 2. an 8% rebate 3. partially furnished 4. 1 year maintenance
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The property sector now resembles a Ponzi scheme. There will continue to be speculative profits so long as the property price does not decline
12 13
We have excluded a few incidental costs involved in the selling of the property Imputing RPGT will reduce the gain slightly as there are deductible allowances under RPGT
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14
We have used the word postpone rather than prevent because it is not possible to stop the property price from reverting to its fundamental price. Postpone, yes. Prevent, no.
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price for their products if the sellers net profit is the same under either scenarios. Lower prices, and not higher prices, move goods. In fact, there is only another industry in which the sellers may have an interest to keep the prices high even at the expense of their net profit in the short term. It is an industry which we are familiar with i.e. the stock market. Here, speculators accumulate position in a stock and then subsequently try to create enthusiasm for a stock through upward price movement in order to (hopefully) exit the whole position at a higher price. Therefore, it is now clear why property developers artificially keep property prices high even at the expense of profitability. This is because the property prices are now so high that the sector is now being supported by speculators rather than real buyers. The real buyers have already been priced out of the market and the property developers know it. That is why they actively chose to keep property prices high (in order to appeal to the speculative buyers) instead of doing what is logical and cut prices to sell more units (in order to appeal to the buy-to-stay buyers). The property developers are fully aware that they are now catering to the speculators. Property developers or derivative sellers? It is worth mentioning that there are a number of differences between speculation in the stock market and speculation in the property market. Firstly, market activities are monitored in the stock market but not in the property market. NAPIC collect statistics but NAPIC does not have monitoring and enforcement powers similar to that of the Securities Commission. Secondly, you cannot buy stocks in the stock market with only a 5% down payment but you can do so with properties. In the financial market, there is a term for instruments that provides you exposure to an underlying asset class at a fraction of the price of the asset. It is called a derivative and this is precisely the role of DIBS in the property market. In fact, it resembles a forward contract with a very low margin requirement (2%-5%). If DIBS is a derivative, then that makes the property developers the derivative sellers. As mentioned in the opening chapter, every bubble is expedited by credit. Here, the role of credit providers is being filled by the property developers (abetted by banks).
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This brings us to 2012 where sustained increase in property prices since 2007 has now resulted in properties being out of reach for the majority of households.
Figure 14: Malaysia residential sales growth 2001-2011
Source: NAPIC, years where RPGT was suspended are highlighted in gray
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Conclusion
In this paper, we address the question of whether the Malaysian property sector is in a bubble. As the property sector is very diverse, the enquiry is restricted to the residential sector in the four key economic states of KL, Selangor, Johor and Penang. Collectively, these four states contribute 75% of total residential sales and 60% of total residential transaction volume. Based on both statistics and income analysis, the Malaysian property sector is in a bubble. From a statistical perspective, measures of property activities such as property sales, transaction volume and sales to GDP ratio have all shown a marked departure from historical trends since 2007. From an income perspective, property prices are now unaffordable to the average household. Due to property prices growing at almost 3x the rate of income in recent years, Malaysia median multiple has leapt to 6.1x, well above the 3x mark that is considered affordable globally. We estimate that, in general, the average Klang Valley household can only afford a property in the RM400,000 range implying that the farther removed property prices are from this range, the more exposed they are to a correction. Specifically, considering that most listed property developers are still launching units at the RM500,000 to RM700,000 range even for the low end of their sales portfolio, we believe they are vulnerable to a correction. Too many developers are attempting to sell too many units to too few people at too high a price. The cause of the bubble can be traced to callous policies by the government and financial innovation by the property developers that took place in the last five years. In particular, the main culprits are the removal of RPGT in 2007, the all-time low interest rates in 2009 and the DIBS scheme introduced by property developers in 2009. In summary, driven by low interest rates, accommodative administrative policies and financial innovation through DIBS, the Malaysian residential property sector is currently in a bubble. Furthermore, the bubble is now at its end stage as prices are now too far removed from fundamentals. Investors should adopt a cautious stance as the sector will have limited upside potential and a sudden correction is possible.
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nonameresearch.com | 18 September 2012 Rating structure The rating structure consists of two main elements; fair value and conviction rating. The fair value reflects the security intrinsic value and is derived based on fundamental analysis. The conviction rating reflects uncertainty associated with the security fair value and is derived based on broad factors such as underlying business risks, contingent events and other variables. Both the fair value and conviction rating are then used to form a view of the security potential total return. A Buy call implies a potential total return of 10% or more, a Sell call implies a potential total loss of 10% or more while all other circumstances result in a Neutral call.
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