I/ Bng s liu

Nm
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010

Y
435319
474855
527056
603688
701906
822432
951456
1108752
1436955
1580461
1898664

X1
38545.4
39615.8
407160
41846.7
43008.9
44904.5
46238.7
47160.3
48209.6
49322
50392.9

X2
151183
170496
200145
239246
290927
343135
404712
532093
616735
708826
830278

Trong :
Y: Tng sn phm quc gia theo gi thc t (t dng)
X1: Lc lng lao ng 15 tui tr ln (Nghn ngi)
X2: Vn u t theo gi thc t (t ng)
Ngun: Tng cc thng k

II/ Chy m hnh

1.
Dependent Variable: LNY
Method: Least Squares
Date: 05/02/12 Time: 19:54
Sample: 2000 2010
Included observations: 11
Variable
Coefficient
C
2.547116
LNX1
-0.001223
LNX2
0.873242
R-squared
0.991883
Adjusted R-squared
0.989854
S.E. of regression
0.052082
Sum squared resid
0.021700
Log likelihood
18.64755
Durbin-Watson stat
1.277751

Std. Error
t-Statistic
0.493760
5.158614
0.024979 -0.048981
0.028450
30.69403
Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)

2.Vit phng trnh hm hi quy mu

Prob.
0.0009
0.9621
0.0000
13.68110
0.517047
-2.845009
-2.736492
488.7892
0.000000

* ngha cc h s:

: Khi cc yu t khc khng i, nu lc lng lao ng 15 tui tr ln (Nghn ngi)

tng 1% th Tng sn phm quc gia (t ng) gim 0.001%.
: khi cc yu t khc khng i, nu vn u t theo gi thc t (t ng) tng 1% th
tng sn phm quc gia (t ng) tng 0.873%.

III/ S ph hp hm hi quy
1.Khong tin cy ca cc h s hi quy (vi mc ngha =5%)
p dng cng thc:

Trong /2 = 0.025; n k = 7
Vi :
(-0.060 ; 0.058)

Vi :
( 0.806 ; 0.941)

( )

( )

2.Kim nh gi thit cc h s hi quy (vi mc ngha =5%)

GI thit kim nh

Nu P value ( |Ti| >

) >

Ngc li, nu P value ( |Ti| >

Vi : P value >

th chp nhn gi thit Ho tc l

) <

th bc b gi thit Ho tc l

(0.96 > 0.05) nn chp nhn gi thit Ho, tc l lc lng lao ng

t 15 tui tr ln khng thc s nh hng n tng sn phm quc gia.

Vi : P value <

(0.00 < 0.05) nn bc b gi thit Ho, tc l vn u t thc s

nh hng n tng sn phm quc gia.

3.Kim nh s ph hp hm hi quy ( kim nh gi thit ng thi , vi mc

ngha =5%)
Gi thit kim nh

Gi tr kim nh

Ta thy P value ( F-statistic) <

( 0.00 < 0.05) nn kt lun bc b gi thit Ho, tc l

cc h s hi quy ca cc bin gii thch khng ng thi bng 0.

IV/ Nhn xt, nh gi:

M hnh ny c a ra nhm thy c s ph thuc ca tng sn phm quc gia vi
lc lng lao ng 15 tui tr ln v vn u t theo gi thc trong giai on 2000 2010.
i vi bin Vn u t, m hnh gii thch hp l theo quy lut kinh t v tnh hnh
pht trin ca nc ta trong giai on . Nu vn tng 1% th tng sn phm quc gia tng
khong t 0.806% n 0.941% (vi tin cy 95%). iu ny cho thy tnh hiu qu ca vn
u t i vi vic m rng quy m nn kinh t ca ta. Nhng vn cn phi xem xt thm v cu
trc vn c thm nhiu nh gi khc.
Tuy nhin m hnh khng gii thch hon ton hp l s ph thuc ca tng sn phm
quc gia vi lc lng lao ng 15 tui tr ln. Thm ch theo kt qu kim nh th Lc lng
lao ng khng thc s nh hng n tng sm phm quc gia. C th thy s v l trong kt
lun ny, nhng nu ta tham kho s liu v t l lao ng qua o to ca nc ta trong giai
on ny th cng c th gii thch phn no kt lun ca m hnh.
Nm

T l ngi lao ng
qua o to (%)

2000

10.3

2001

10.7

2002

11.1

2003

11.5

2004

12.0

2005

12.5

2006

13.1

2007

13.6

2008

14.3

2009

14.8

2010 (s b)

14.6

Tuy lc lng lao ng tng hng nm, nhng t l lao ng qua o to khng thc s
tng tng ng. Cho thy nng sut lao ng ca lc lng lao ng nc ta cha cao.
Theo khong tin cy ca (-0.060 ; 0.058) th c th thy iu .
Nc ta hin nay ang c u th v lc lng lao ng nhng pht huy c th mnh
ny cn phi c chnh sch tng cng t l lao ng trong dn chng.

n y chng em xin kt thc phn trnh by ca

mnh, chc thy vui!