Professional Documents
Culture Documents
I.
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b) Lm pht:
Lm pht l mt vn rt nng trong thi gian va qua, nh hng trc tip
n i sng ca ngi dn, tnh hnh sn xut ca cc doanh nghip trong c
nc. Lm pht trong 3 thng ca qu 3 tip gim tc t thng 5 v thng 6
sau nhng n lc n nh ha quyt lit ca Chnh ph. Tuy nhin, do s thiu
ht ngun cung thc phm tm thi trong thng 7 v thng 8, cng nh hng
ca yu t thi v tu trng trong thng 9 nn tc tng ca ch s gi tiu
dng (CPI) hng thng trong qu vn mc cao. Tnh n ht thng 9, CPI
tng 22,42% so vi cng thi im ca nm trc, v ln ti 16,63% so vi
cui nm 2010. ng lu , gi c ca nhm hng Thc phm tng ti
27,72% t u nm, tip l nhm n ung ngoi gia nh tng 21,33%, nhm
Vn ti c mc tng 19,01%, nhm Vt liu xy dng v nh tng 16,59%;
trong khi Bu chnh-Vin thng l nhm duy nht c mc gi gim 1,87%.
c) Vn u t ton x hi:
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d) Li sut:
Li sut cho vay VND bnh qun thc t, theo bo co ca Ngn hng Nh
nc, n nh trong thng 7 v thng 8, v c xu hng gim nh trong thng 9.
C th, li sut cho vay nng nghip, nng thn v xut khu khong 1719%/nm, li sut cho vay lnh vc sn xut-kinh doanh khc khong 1721%/nm, li sut cho vay lnh vc phi sn xut khong 22-25%/nm. Trong khi
, v mt quy nh, li sut huy ng vn ti a bng ng Vit Nam ca cc t
chc tn dng, theo Thng t s 02/2011/TT-NHNN ca Ngn hng Nh nc ra
ngy 03/03/2011, v gn y c thay th bng Thng t s 30/2011/TTNHNN ra ngy 28/9/2011, vn c khng ch mc trn 14%/nm i vi
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Tng trng tn dng trong 9 thng u nm nay t 8,16%, trong khi tng
phng tin thanh ton cng mi tng 8,87%, vn thp hn nhiu so vi mc
cho php theo Ngh quyt s 83/NQ-CP, tng ng l 20% v 15-16% cho c
nm. Bn cnh , huy ng vn tng 9,82%. T s liu c Ngn hng Nh
nc cng b hng thng, theo tnh ton tng trng tn dng VND ti thi im
cui qu 3 so vi cui nm 2010 khong 5%, trong khi tn dng ngoi t tng
ti 24,04%. Tng cho vay bng ngoi t ang mc 30 t USD, trong khi huy
ng tin gi bng ngoi t khong 22,5 t. D n tn dng ngoi t ti thi
im cui thng 9 gim so vi cui thng 8, tnh rng khong 700 triu USD
o hn.
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e) T gi:
T gi trong qu 3 chu nhiu p lc t tnh hnh tng trng tn dng ngoi
t t bin trong cc thng u nm, t din bin gi vng v t ch trng h
mc li sut ng ni t ca Chnh ph trong bi cnh lm pht vn mc cao.
Tuy nhin, tnh trong ton qu, ng ni t ch gim gi chnh thc 0,05% so vi
ng USD. Vic gi vng c t gi trong cc thng gn y c h tr bi
tnh hnh cn cn thanh ton tng th ca t nc lun trong trng thi thng
d: mc d cn cn thng mi thm ht, nhng cn cn vn t thng d ln.
Ngoi ra, kt hp vi cc ng thi qun l mnh tay i vi th trng ngoi
hi t do ln chnh thc iu hng dng ngoi t trong nc, Chnh ph
thnh cng trong thc hin cng tc tuyn truyn.
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f) Gi vng:
Bn cnh tnh hnh lm pht, gi vng cng l mt trong nhng vn nng
ca nc ta trong nm 2011. c nhng thi im, gi vng trong nc ln
cao n k lc, to ra nhng cn st thc s. Tuy nhin bc sang qu 3, tnh
hnh gi vng c v i vo n nh. C c s n nh ny l nh s n nh
ca gi vng th gii, khi tm l chn vng lm ni trnh bo khng cn.
Gi vng quc t sau khi lin tip thit lp nhng mc cao k lc trong thng
8 v u thng 9 gim mnh t nh $1.920/oz trong ngy 06/09 v mc
$1.624/oz vo cui ngy 30/09. Li sut u t vng th gii theo chin lc th
ng trong qu 3 t 7,8%. Trong cng nhp iu iu chnh, gi vng trong
nc gim t mc nh xp x 49.000.000 ng/lng vo cui ngy 22/08
v mc 44.220.000 ng/lng vo cui ngy 30/09. Tnh chung cho c qu 3,
gi vng trong nc vn tng 16,9%. Nhng chm tr trong vic hin thc ha
cc gii php trong n qun l tp trung v pht trin th trng vng to ra
s chnh lch ng k gia gi vng trong nc v gi vng quc t quy i, c
bit trong giai on t gia thng 9 khi din bin ca gi vng th gii v tm l
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Bin ng gi vng
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Pha cui bng xp hng, nhng th trng t nht chnh l ngi sao ca cuc
khng hong n chu u. Bn trong s nm thnh vin ca nhm PIIGS ca
chu u - B o Nha, , Hy Lp v Ty Ban Nha - thng lnh bng xp hng
nhng th trng t nht ca nm 2010. V tr cn li thuc v Hungary khi loi
b Ireland (thnh vin th nm ca PIIGS) ra khi top 5. Theo S&P, th
trng chng khon ca Ireland, thng bo mc gim trong nm qua ch cn
8,3%.
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1.3. u nm 2011
u nm, th trng chng khon th gii nhn chung tng. Ti M, ch s
Dow Jones ln u tin k t thng 6/2008 cht trn ngng cn tm l quan
trng 12.000 im. Tuy nhin, trong thng 2 cng c phin gim im, c bit
l phin giao dch ngy 22/2. Cng thng chnh tr ti Libya l nguyn nhn
chnh ko th trng chng khon tut dc mnh. Nh u t khp cc sn
x bn tho do lo ngi tnh hnh ny s cn tip tc leo thang. Kt thc thng 2
nm 2011, ch s cng nghip Dow Jones tng 334,4 ln 12.226,30, ch s
S&P 500 tng 41,1 ln 1.327,22 v Nasdaq l 2.782,27, tng 82,19.
Ti chu u, th trng chng khon bin ng hn. Nhn chung, a s l
cc phin tng im, nguyn nhn do nim tin ca ngi chu u vo trin vng
nn kinh t c ln cao. Tuy nhin, cng nh th trng M, tnh hnh chnh tr
hn lon Libya l nguyn nhn chnh nh hng ti kt qu giao dch trn cc
th trng chng khon chu u ngy 22.
Trong khi chu li c din bin tri chiu. C th, chng khon Nht
t mc cao nht trong 9 thng nh k vng phc hi kinh t ti cc quc gia
pht trin. Ch s Shanghai Composite ca th trng Trung Quc tng mnh
nh s dn dt ca nhm c phiu bt ng sn v ngn hng. Cn li phn ln
cc th trng chng khon chu ngp chm trong sc do nhm c phiu
a c v ti nguyn mt gi mnh. Kt thc thng 2, ch s MSCI - chu Thi
Bnh Dng (khng bao gm Nht Bn) gim 1,4% xung 458,11 im. Ch s
HangSeng gim 109,3 xung cn 23338. chiu ngc li, ch s Nikkei
tng 386,2 ln 10624,10. Ch s ShangHai tng ln 2.905,05.
Bc vo giai on sau, chng khon th gii gim im khi th trng lo
ngi khng hong n chu u s tr nn ti t hn v cc nh hoch nh chnh
sch s khng th thng nht v k hoch gim thm ht ngn sch M.
Chng khon i xung trong bi cnh xut hin nhng du hiu cho thy nn
kinh t s mt th gii vn ang trn suy yu v nhng lo ngi rng cc nh
lnh o chu u s khng th t c mt tha thun chung trong vic gii
quyt cuc khng hong n trong cuc hp thng nh EU ln hai.
C th, cht phin 25/10, ch s cng nghip Dow Jones gim mnh 207
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khon Vit Nam tng trng sau khi chm y do c h tr bi nhng thun li
c th. C th:
+ Sau Tt Nguyn n, th trng c mc P/E thp (xp x 8), vi
khng t m chng khon c th gi di gi tr s sch, to ra li th ca mt
th trng b nh gi thp, n cha mt sc bt tim nng.
+ T cui Qu I/2009, kinh t th gii bt u khi phc thm vo
l nhng n lc phc hi kinh t ca Vit Nam mang li cho nh u t s k
vng ln v mt kch bn kh quan cho kinh t Vit Nam 2009.
Giai on ny, VN-Index tng 117,6%. Hu ht chng khon u c sc tng
mnh, khng ph thuc vo qui m doanh nghip pht hnh, tnh thanh khon ca
c phiu hay trin vng tng trng... Cc nhm c phiu dn dt th trng vi
sc tng mnh t 150% n 400% phi k n l nhm Ti chnh - Ngn hng
(tiu biu l nhm Chng khon). y cng l giai on m giao dch th trng
c ci thin ng k v khi lng v gi tr so vi thi gian trc . Lng
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trng li c du n m nht.
Ging nh trong giai on tng trng 1, sc tng ca th trng giai on ny
hm cha kh nhiu ri ro khi xu th th trng ph thuc cht ch vo s vn
ng ca chi mt nhm chng khon (Xy dng - Bt ng sn), v nhm ny
ang c biu hin tng trng nng khi sc tng khng phn nh ng thc t
bi cnh nn kinh t. Bn cnh , tc ng ca n by ti chnh (vn l cng
c ngn hn) c s dng mt cch trit khin VN-Index tng qun tnh
vt mc 600 im, chnh thc t th trng trc mt qu trnh iu chnh gi
tr.
d) Giai on 4 (t 22/10/2009): Khi xng bi p lc gii chp (do s
dng n by ti chnh) khi th trng ri qua mc 600 im, cng vi s lo ngi
trc nhng din bin bt thng trong hot ng qun l kinh t v m m in
hnh l chnh sch t gi, li sut khin cho qu trnh iu chnh k thut cn
thit sau giai on tng trng trc chm su thnh mt xu th o chiu th
trng. Trn sn HOSE, ch s VN-Index gim 190 im trong cha y 2 thng.
Cng vi , thanh khon th trng st gim ng k. Nhm dn dt th
trng l Xy dng - Bt ng sn trong giai on trc gim ng k nh
hng, th trng thiu ht lc t nhng nhm chng khon vn c coi l
bluechips. Tuy vy, tri qua 4 giai on thng trm, th trng chng khon
2009 vn c nh gi l c mt nm thnh cng vi mc tng trng 56,8%
ca VN-Index v 60% ca HNX-Index - mt kt qu n tng khi 2009 c
coi l mt nm kh khn ca nn kinh t ni chung, ca th trng chng khon
ni ring.
Bng 1: Thng k quy m ton th trng nm 2007, 2008, 2009
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pht trin.
Trong bi cnh ch s VN-Index b chi phi bi vi c phiu ln, nh u t
(NT) quan tm ti ch s HNX-Index nhiu hn, bi din bin trn sn H
Ni phn nh cung-cu tht ca th trng. Gi c phiu cng thng bin ng
cng chiu vi bin ng ca ch s chnh.
d) Cng ty chng khon (CTCK) gim dn tnh dn dt th trng
Nm 2010 l nm nim yt t ca cc CTCK vi con s t 4 Cng ty
nim yt trong nm 2009, tng ln 25 CTCK nim yt trong nm 2010 vi
ng c ch yu l to thanh khon v uy tn, tuy nhin hiu qu hot ng
khng cao.
Trong 10 thng u nm 2010, khi xu hng gim cha kt thc, khng ch
CTCK, m nhiu nh u t t chc tht bi trong mt s trng phi u
t nh u t vo bluechips do dng tin vo th trng yu, cc nh u t
nh khng theo. Tnh cht th trng phc tp, khin cho hot ng phn tch
nhn nh ca cc CTCK ngy cng kh khn. Bn cnh , hot ng mi gii
pht trin, cnh tranh gay gt nhng vn ch yu theo hng n by, hu qu
li l n xu, ny sinh tranh chp gia khch hng v CTCK. Mt s sn
phm mi hnh thnh (quyn mua, bn khng) nhng cha ph hp trong bi
cnh hin nay.
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TTCK Vit Nam thot khi knh xu hng gim trung hn. Dng tin mnh
c xc nh trc tin t cc ti khon ln trong nc, bn cnh l dng
vn cht li t cc th trng vng/ngoi t, dng vn nng t cc th trng
nh Thi Lan, Malaysia, Innsia quay tr li th trng Vit Nam.
Trong bi cnh v m vn cha c nhiu ci thin nhiu th s xut hin ca
dng tin nng l mt du hi quan trng cho xu hng tng bn vng ca th
trng trong thi gian ti. Nu y l dng tin cho u t lu di th rt tt,
nhng nu ch l u c trong ngn hn th rt nguy him, bi dng vn u c l
ngn hn v bt thng. N c th gip cho th trng pht trin nhanh chng
trong mt giai on, nhng khi n rt ra th kh nng th trng gim su l c
th xy ra.
2.3. u 2011
Din bin trn c th hin rt r qua din bin m m ca th trng
chng khon Vit Nam trong 06 thng u nm 2011, ch s Vnindex c lc
gim xung mc 371 im ngy 26/5/2011v Hnindex cng thit lp mc y
mi trong lch s ca mnh vi 69 im ngy 25/5/2011.
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2. Ngnh dc phm:
a) Nhng c im ca ngnh:
Trong iu kin nn kinh t hin nay, ngnh dc ni ln tr thnh a ch
u t ng ch ca nh u t. Vi c im l c tnh phng th cao do nhu
cu thuc cha bnh ca ngi dn trong thi k kinh t kh khn, chm pht
trin vn cao, nn trong tnh hnh th trng chng khon m m hin nay, cc
c phiu ngnh dc mc d c t sut li tc khng cao nh cc ngnh ti
chnh, bt ng sn trong thi k tng trng nhng vn thu ht c s ch
ca cc nh u t.
Tc tng trng n nh:
Cng vi thc phm, dc phm l mt mt hng thit yu vi nhu cu ngy
mt tng cao. Ngnh dc trong nm 2010 tr gi khong 1.54 t USD chim
1.47% GDP ca c nc ( tng 16% so vi nm 2009 ). Tc tng trng
trung bnh ca ngnh t t 16 18%, cao hn so vi trung bnh chung ca th
gii (4 7%) v Chu (12.7%). S pht trin ca ngnh dc trong nhng
nm qua l nh nhu cu v thuc lin tc tng cao v t trng sn xut trong
nc c ci thin vi kh nng cnh tranh cao hn. Nhu cu v dc phm
tng hn 20% hng nm. Chi ph bnh qun cho sn xut dc phm nm 2009
l 19.77 USD, cao hn nm 2008 l 20% (16.45 USD), v gp 3 ln nm 2001 (6
USD)
Mc d tng trng vi tc cao nhng quy m ngnh dc hin nay cn
rt nh b, cn nhiu tim nng pht trin. Chi tiu ca ngi dn hin nay
cho dc phm v chm sc sc khe vn cn kh thp. Tnh trn u ngi,
trung bnh mi ngi Vit Nam tr 40.3 USD cho chm sc y t vo nm 2006,
trong c 11.6 USD l cho tin thuc.Con s ny ca nm 2007 l 46.1 USD
vi tin thuc chim 30%. Mc chi tiu cho dc phm ca ngi dn hin nay
l qu thp, ch bng 1/4 so vi n v 1/5 so vi Thi Lan.
Sn xut trong nc trung bnh mi nm tng 20%
Ring nm 2009, 2010 sn xut thuc ni a tng t bin 37.6% v
43.35%. Kim ngch sn xut nm 2010 c tnh t 1.2 t USD v p ng
c khong 50% nhu cu v thuc cho th trng trong nc (tng 10% so vi
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nm 2008) T l nguyn ph liu nhp khu theo cng tng ln 20% trong 2
nm 2009 v 2010
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Ngun: Cc qun l dc
Hin nay c hn 500 DN nc ngoi cung cp thuc cho th trng VN. S
lng cc cng ty v s thuc nc ngoi ng k tng vt 29% ln 8.500 thuc
sau khi Vit Nam gia nhp WTO v thu nhp khu gim t 15-20% xung cn
5.2%. Cc cng ty ln nht ti VN gm Sanofi Aventis Group (8.8% tng thuc
tiu th) v GlaxoSmithKline (7.8%), DHG (5%). DHG hin l DN ni a dn
u sn xut thuc vi 12% th phn trong nc. DHG v IMP l 2 DN c doanh
thu sn xut ln nht (1600 t VN v 625 t VN) v t trng doanh thu hng
sn xut cao nht (94% v 95%).
H Ni v thnh ph H Ch Minh l hai khu vc chnh tiu th thuc ca c
nc, chim 76% gi tr. Trong , Tp.H Ch Minh l th trng trng im vi
lng tiu th ln ti 55% sn lng thuc s dng c nc, trong khi lng
tiu th H Ni ch bng 1/2, chim khong 21% th phn. Th trng trong
Nam cng l th trng trng im ca cc cng ty dc ln nht c nc nh
DHG, Vinapharm v cc hng dc phm nc ngoi.
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T gi hi oi v li sut:
T gi hi oi trong thi gian gn y c nhiu yu t gy bin ng,
nhng ngn hng nh nc tch cc a ra nhng chnh sch nhm lm n
nh t gi nn trong nm 2011, nhn chung t gi bin ng khng ln lm nn
ri ro t gi nh hng khng mnh n cc doanh nghip nhp khu thuc
thnh phm v nguyn ph liu.
Li sut ngn hng trong thi gian gn y tng i cao (trn 20%), gy
kh khn v vn cho cc doanh nghip sn xut dc. Nhng trong nhng thng
cui nm li sut cho vay ang gim cng vi tnh hnh kinh t kh quan trong
nm 2012 l tn hiu tch cc cho ngnh dc.
c) Tng quan v cc doanh nghip trong ngnh:
Hin nay trong ngnh dc phm c khong 8 doanh nghip nim yt c
phiu trn sn chng khon thnh ph H Ch Minh. Cc doanh nghip ny hot
ng trong 3 th trng chnh l sn xut ng dc, sn xut ty dc v nhp
khu, phn phi thuc. Mi cng ty c nhng im mnh ring ca mnh trong
tng th trng.
c.1) Cc ch s chung ca ngnh:
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nh gi c phiu
Gi trn thu nhp (P/E)
Gi trn gi s sch (P/B)
Gi trn doanh thu (P/S)
P/E trn t l tng EPS (PEG)
Thu nhp trn c phiu (EPS)
Gi s sch (BPS)
Kh nng sinh li
Li nhun gp
Li nhun hot ng
T sut EBIT
Li nhun trc thu
Li nhun rng
ROA
ROE
Kh nng thanh ton
Ti sn / Vn ch s hu
N / Ti sn
N / Vn ch s hu
Tnh thanh khon
Ch s tin mt
Ch s thanh ton nhanh
Ch s thanh ton hin hnh
Tnh hiu qu
Vng quay hng tn kho
Vng quay cc khon phi thu
Vng quay cc khon phi tr
Vng quay tng ti sn
Vng quay ti sn c nh
Tng trng
Doanh thu
Li nhun rng
Thu nhp trn c phiu (EPS)
Tng ti sn
Vn ch s hu
Lu chuyn tin t / Doanh thu
LCTT t hot ng kinh doanh (CFO)
LCTT t hot ng u t (CFI)
LCTT t hot ng ti chnh (CFF)
LCTT thun trong k
2011/I
2011/II
2011/III
6.7
1.44
0.75
-9.82
7,724
36,427
4.51
1.44
0.49
-2.72
7,871
36,427
7.86
1.54
1.03
-1.84
6,333
38,675
33.50%
13.40%
13.40%
13.50%
11.30%
13.50%
21.30%
33.60%
13.10%
13.20%
13.20%
11.00%
13.50%
21.30%
36.80%
15.80%
14.40%
15.80%
13.20%
15.70%
22.30%
1.61
0.38
0.61
1.61
0.38
0.61
1.44
0.31
0.44
0.37
1.3
2.02
0.37
1.3
2.02
0.58
1.65
2.37
3.16
5.01
8.8
1.17
4.58
3.16
5.01
8.8
1.17
4.58
3.35
5.61
10.83
1.14
4.41
4.00%
2.10%
-0.70%
5.40%
3.20%
5.80%
3.00%
-1.70%
5.40%
3.20%
1.80%
2.50%
-4.30%
5.10%
4.10%
9.60%
-5.10%
-2.30%
2.20%
10.50%
-5.10%
-2.60%
2.70%
8.40%
-4.90%
-4.90%
-1.40%
DCL
DHG
Tn cng ty
Cng ty c phn dc
phm Cu long
Cng ty c phn dc
phm Hu Giang
Vn th
trng
(T
VND)
Tng
khi
lng
(triu
cp)
EPS
P/E
ROA
ROE
Beta
155
9.91
5,576
2,8
6%
16%
0,44
1793
27.13
16,343
23%
33%
0,18
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429
17.5
5,156
4,7
11%
16%
0,54
685
15.21
5,660
10%
11%
0,16
627
9.98
7,607
8,2
13%
17%
0,07
219
8.19
6,944
3,8
13%
18%
0,42
756
14
8,117
6,7
11%
18%
0,1
524
12.34
6,273
6,8
12%
22%
0,04
Ngun: www.cophieu68.com
P/E
7.4
Ngnh
6.8
TRA
SPM
6.7
3.8
OPC
8.2
MKP
IMP
4.7
DMC
DHG
DCL
P/E
2.8
c.3) Bng (1.2) tnh hnh kinh doanh ca cc doanh nghip trong ngnh:
M
DCL
DHG
DMC
IMP
MKP
OPC
Tng trng
doanh thu
(%)
4,1
2,1
1,5
-4,7
2,6
8,3
Li nhun
rng
( t )
55,2
446,4
90,3
79,1
75,9
55,4
T sut li
nhun rng
(%)
7
18,7
8,1
10,2
7,4
14,9
Li sut c
tc
(%)
6,1
4,62
5
4,89
1,63
3,85
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SPM
TRA
-5
14,4
113,6
77
33,9
7,8
3,21
4,76
Ngun: www.phs.vn
Theo hu ht cc l thuyt ti chnh hin i u lu cc nh u t v ch
s P/E (gi trn li nhun), ch s c coi l quan trng nht khi quyt nh c
nn mua hay khng mt c phiu. Qua bng 1.1 v th so snh v ch s P/E
ca cc doanh nghip trong ngnh, ta c th thy c phiu OPC, DCL, DHG
ang l cc c phiu c sc hp dn trn th trng. Ch s P/E ca nhng c
phiu ny tng i thp ( gi tng i thp so vi thu nhp t c phiu ), th
hin mt s k vng tng gi ca nhng c phiu ny trong tng lai.
Mt khc, nu ng trn gc xem xt v tnh hnh s dng vn, ti sn
ca cng ty, chng ta s theo di 2 ch chnh ROA v ROE. ROA l ch s th
hin t sut thu nhp trn ti sn (Return on asset). Ch s ny cng cao th kh
nng sinh li trn mt n v ti sn cng ln. ROE l ch s th hin t sut thu
nhp trn vn c ng (Return on equity). Ch s ROE cng l mt ch s m
cc nh u t thng rt ch khi theo di mt c phiu; ROE th hin kh
nng qun l dng vn c ng ca doanh nghip, li nhun doanh nghip thu v
t nhng ng vn ca c ng. Nhn chung, cc nh u t c th thng qua 2
ch s ROA v ROE c th nh gi kh nng qun l, s dng ti sn, vn
cu doanh nghip sinh li.
Qua bng 1.1, ta c th thy c phiu DHG c ch s ROA v ROE tng i
cao (23% v 33%) so vi cc doanh nghip khc trong ngnh, v cao hn hn so
vi mt bng chung ca ngnh dc trong qu 3 nm 2011(15.7% v 22.3%).
Ngoi ra, cn c vo tnh hnh kinh doanh ca cc doanh nghip trong ngnh,
ta c th thy cng ty Dc Hu Giang c tnh hnh kinh doanh kh tt, li
nhun ln cng t sut li nhun cao.
Kt lun: thng qua mt s ch s ti chnh v ch tiu c bn, ta c th nhn
ra c phiu ca Cng ty c phn dc Hu Giang l mt c phiu ng c cc
nh u t trn th trng ch . Nhng liu c phiu DHG c thc s l ni u
t hiu qu hay khng, chng ta cn phi xem xt thm nhiu yu t v chnh
bn thn cng ty, qu trnh hnh thnh pht trin, ban lnh o, cng nh tnh
hnh kinh doanh trong qu kh,Nhng iu ny s c trnh by cn k trong
phn phn tch cng ty.
3. Ngnh sa
a) Nhng nt chung v ngnh sa:
Din bin gi nguyn liu sa th gii 6 thng u nm 2011
Vit Nam ang trong giai on tng trng v pht trin kinh t mnh m vi
tc thn tc ko theo mc thu nhp, mc sng ca ngi dn cng c ci
thin r rt. Nu trc y thnh ng n no mc m l c m ca nhiu
ngi th hm nay, khi t nc gia nhp WTO li l n ngon mc p
Sa v cc sn phm t sa gn gi hn vi ngi dn, nu trc nhng
nm 90 ch c 1-2 nh sn xut, phn phi sa, ch yu l sa c v sa bt
( nhp ngoi), hin nay th trng sa Vit Nam c gn 20 hng ni a v
rt nhiu doanh nghip phn phi sa chia nhau mt th trng tim nng vi 80
triu dn. Nhn vo biu ta thy tng lng tiu th sa Vit Nam lin tc
Page 40 of 73
- 41 -
- 42 -
- 43 -
- 44 -
- 45 -
th hiu ca ngi tiu dng ngy mt gim dn, nn c mc sinh li thp nht
v t khong 12%/gi bn l.
Mc d vy, tng lai ngnh sa vn kh sng sa do nhu cu v sa cng
tng mnh. GDP u ngi nhng th trng tiu th chnh nh chu (c
bit l Trung Quc) v chu i Dng s tng khong 3,9% trong nm 2011.
iu ny cho thy nhu cu nhp khu s vn duy tr cao. B Nng nghip New
Zealand cng ch ra cc quc gia xut khu du m cng ang tng lng tiu
th cc sn phm sa do gi du tng khin thu nhp ngi dn cc nc ny
cng c ci thin.
- 46 -
Tng khi
lng
370.714.130
12.500.000
EPS
P/E
ROA
ROE
Beta
10,931
-1,333
12,4
-3,8
27%
-9%
34%
13%
0,5
-0,9
- 47 -
- 48 -
- 49 -
8/2007
12/2007
12/2009
9/2010
pht hnh
80.000.000
100.000.000
200.000.000
266.629.620
20.000.000
100.000.000
66.629.620
2.500.000
100.000.000
200.000.000
266.629.620
269.129.620
Page 49 of 73
- 50 -
Page 50 of 73
- 51 -
Page 51 of 73
- 52 -
Minh bch thng tin l quan im hng u ca DHG Pharma v lun nhn
c s ch o thng nht, xuyn sut t Ban Qun tr cng ty. Cng b thng
tin minh bch khng ch l trch nhim ca DHG i vi cc nh u t, m l
trch nhim ca DHG i vi s pht trin bn vng ca chnh mnh. Thc hin
cc knh thng tin hiu qu n nh u t vi mc tiu to s gn kt, chia s
v thng hiu gia c ng, doanh nghip v ngi lao ng.
g) Bn sc doanh nghip:
Bn sc vn ha Dc Hu Giang lun l v kh, l li th cnh tranh gip
DHG quyt thng trn thng trng. N cn l nh hng, l th ch vn ha
trong cng ty. Bn sc gip cho mi ngi gn nhau hn, nhn ra mnh ni ng
nghip ca mnh, th trng ca mnh. Bn sc vn ha ca DHG Pharma c
xy dng khng ch n thun l xy dng nt vn ha ca mt doanh nghip,
m hng ti xy dng mt n np, truyn thng ca mt n v, gp phn xy
dng nn nhng c nhn tiu biu c L - Ngha Tr Tn, sng chan ha
vi ng nghip v cng ng. Bn sc vn ha ca DHG Pharma chnh l mn
qu lch s m th h i trc tng li cho nhng th h sau ny tip ni xy
dng hnh nh cng ty.
h) Trch nhim vi x hi:
L mt n v sn xut kinh doanh dc phm, DHG Pharma lun Ly li
ch cng ng lm khi s cho mi hot ng. Hot ng cng ng cng hiu
qu hn khi gn lin vi s cng hin cc sn phm cht lng cao, nhm xy
dng nn tng cho x hi lun c cuc sng khe p
Page 52 of 73
- 53 -
2010/IV
667,756
2011/I
582,312
2011/II
584,843
2011/III
573,957
4,587
663,170
3,000
579,312
3,832
581,011
6,830
567,127
305,462
357,708
301,449
277,862
299,061
281,949
305,506
261,622
9,786
955
706
178,101
34,247
154,193
12,615
1,394
145,443
41,964
101,676
14,760
1,669
121,086
35,104
138,851
13,078
1,369
418
103,956
44,287
125,088
1,529
1,917
-388
-981
987
1,111
-124
-300
1,282
1,568
-286
-300
3,939
9,143
-5,204
318
152,823
17,810
1
135,013
101,252
13,474
-354
88,132
138,265
16,785
253
121,227
120,202
18,681
-517
102,038
299
134,714
5,008
374
87,758
538
120,689
1,453
100,584
1,544
26,902,832
120,000
3,228,339,798,
01
20,030
5.98
26,902,832
117,000
3,147,631,427,
58
13,048
8.93
27,152,832
57,000
1,547,711,414,
27
17,779
3.19
65,166,300
66,500
4,333,558,824,
96
6,174
10.62
b) Bng cn i k ton:
Page 53 of 73
- 54 -
Page 54 of 73
A - Ti sn ngn hn
I. Tin v cc khon tng ng tin
1.Tin
2. Cc khon tng ng tin
II. Cc khon u t ti chnh ngn hn
1. u t ngn hn
2. D phng gim gi u t ngn hn
III. Cc khon phi thu ngn hn
1. Phi thu khch hng
2. Tr trc cho ngi bn
5. Cc khon phi thu khc
6. D phng phi thu ngn hn kh i
IV. Hng tn kho
1. Hng tn kho
2. D phng gim gi hng tn kho
V. Ti sn ngn hn khc
1. Chi ph tr trc ngn hn
2. Thu GTGT c khu tr
3. Thu v cc khon khc phi thu Nh nc
4. Ti sn ngn hn khc
B - Ti sn di hn
I- Cc khon phi thu di hn
4. Phi thu di hn khc
II. Ti sn c nh
1. Ti sn c nh hu hnh
- Nguyn gi
- Gi tr hao mn lu k
3. Ti sn c nh v hnh
- Nguyn gi
- Gi tr hao mn lu k
4. Chi ph xy dng c bn d dang
III. Bt ng sn u t
- Nguyn gi
- Gi tr hao mn lu k
IV. Cc khon u t ti chnh di hn
2. u t vo cng ty lin kt, lin doanh
3. u t di hn khc
4. D phng gim gi u t ti chnh di hn
V. Ti sn di hn khc
1. Chi ph tr trc di hn
2. Ti sn thu thu nhp hon li
3. Ti sn di hn khc
TNG CNG TI SN
A - N phi tr
I. N ngn hn
1. Vay v n ngn hn
2. Phi tr ngi bn
3. Ngi mua tr tin trc
4. Thu v cc khon phi np Nh nc
5. Phi tr ngi lao ng
6. Chi ph phi tr
9. Cc khon phi tr, phi np ngn hn khc
11. Qu khen thng phc li
II. N di hn
3. Phi tr di hn khc
5. Thu thu nhp hon li phi tr
6. D phng tr cp mt vic lm
8.Doanh thu cha thc hin
9. Qu pht trin khoa hc v cng ngh
B - Vn ch s hu
I. Vn ch s hu
1. Vn u t ca ch s hu
2. Thng d vn c phn
4. C phiu qu
7. Qu u t pht trin
- 55 -
2008
783,527
211,742
207,156
4,586
2,263
3,741
-1,478
255,126
216,770
28,788
28,270
-18,703
308,236
308,236
6,159
770
151
56
5,183
298,255
72
72
225,956
106,798
191,417
(84,619)
117,155
117,805
(649)
2,003
66,839
3,742
70,097
(7,000)
5,388
263
3,671
1,455
1,081,782
377,458
362,265
8,455
67,746
530
18,863
58,331
190,187
23,353
(5,199)
15,193
17
28
15,148
701,139
701,139
200,000
378,761
(292)
38,461
2009
1,212,468
584,129
162,206
421,922
16,037
16,037
296,978
250,455
26,408
23,553
-3,438
306,732
311,577
-4,845
8,593
534
131
7,929
309,504
2010
1,442,034
642,519
286,506
356,013
237,015
118,833
231,889
(113,056)
112,920
113,635
(715)
5,262
303,439
167,841
310,199
(142,358)
127,878
131,895
(4,017)
7,720
6,457
7,785
(1,328)
39,979
32,592
11,901
(4,514)
27,826
22,430
3,785
1,610
1,819,735
530,697
471,556
12,802
86,291
1,413
40,019
100,633
168,781
32,127
29,489
59,141
21,164
119
37,858
1,280,322
1,280,322
269,130
378,761
(456)
204,329
31,255
23,868
11,901
(4,514)
41,234
36,189
3,414
1,631
1,521,973
496,158
443,216
73,980
71,353
1,095
35,634
84,118
161,165
15,871
52,942
53
14,189
38,700
1,018,034
1,010,376
266,630
Page
55 of 73
378,761
(410)
4,658
446,198
306,720
28,194
117,510
-6,225
347,100
350,125
-3,026
6,217
1,283
0
440
4,494
377,701
- 56 -
2011/I
2011/II
2011/III
101,252
10,830
1,945
300
323
106,452
138,265
12,401
-2,874
600
564
131,605
120,202
12,683
3,869
-600
-2,472
418
124,073
-46,145
-70,705
12,813
79,325
-103,357
58,759
1,974
5,556
-76,606
-1,391
-441
-17,825
-2,776
-20,017
1,239
-456
-16,677
-17,533
21,570
P/E
-20,647
-649
-525
-14,235
-14,974
135,950
Gi tr
P/B-131,391
P/S
3.1
367
4
4.7
8.7
7.6
5.2
5.7
10,322
6.1
-9,957
7.64
-
Li
sut
-34,388
c tc
6.4%
3,513
1.5%
4.8%
4.5%
77
1.6%
189
3.8%
1,379
2.9%
11,074
4.9%
-18,156
6%
-
4,834
-3,151
1,683
-28,292
642,519
614,227
9,846
-8,136
-735
3,474
39,138
614,227
653,365
4,062
-12,011
-195,529
-203,478
-200,064
653,365
453,301
- 57 -
STT
M
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
DCL
DHG
DMC
IMP
MKP
OPC
SPM
TRA
Tn cng ty
Cng ty c phn Dc phm Cu Long
Cng ty c phn Dc phm Hu Giang
Cng ty c phn Xut nhp khu Y t Domesco
Cng ty c phn Dc phm Imexpharm
Cng ty c phn Ho - Dc phm Mekophar
Cng ty c phn Dc phm OPC
Cng ty c phn S.P.M
Cng ty c phn Traphaco
Ngnh dc
Kh nng sinh li
% li
nhun
ROA
ROE
rng
7.0%
6%
16%
18.7%
23.0%
33.0%
8.1%
11%
16%
10.2%
10%
11%
7.4%
13%
17%
14.9%
13%
18%
33.9%
11%
18%
7.8%
12%
22%
12.8%
9.8%
18.7%
Ngun: www.cophieu68.com
Da vo bng trn, ta c th thy t sut li nhun rng ca DHG kh cao,
cao hn trung bnh chung ca ngnh, ch xp sau cng ty c phn S.P.M. i vi
mt cng ty c thnh lp cch y 37 nm th tc tng trng 18.7%
trong thi k kinh t c nhiu bin ng l kh thnh cng. iu ny cho thy
cng ty ang i ng hng trong sn xut v kinh doanh, mt cng ty c trin
vng i vi cc nh u t.
Ch s ROA, ROE phn nh kh nng sinh li trn ti sn v vn. Ch s
ROA v ROE ca DHG cao vt tri so vi cc cng ty trong ngy v trung
bnh chung ca ngnh, iu chng t kh nng s dng vn v ti sn ca
cng ty mc cao, kh nng sinh li ln.
Ch s ROA, ROE ca DHG qua cc nm:
2007
2008
2009
2010
ROA
16.1%
12.8%
27.8%
22.9%
ROE
29.4%
19.5%
41.5%
33.2%
Ngun: www.phs.vn
Page 57 of 73
- 58 -
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
DCL
DHG
DMC
IMP
MKP
OPC
SPM
TRA
Tn cng ty
Cng ty c phn Dc phm Cu Long
Cng ty c phn Dc phm Hu Giang
Cng ty c phn Xut nhp khu Y t Domesco
Cng ty c phn Dc phm Imexpharm
Cng ty c phn Ho - Dc phm Mekophar
Cng ty c phn Dc phm OPC
Cng ty c phn S.P.M
Cng ty c phn Traphaco
Ngnh dc
Doanh
thu
thun
26.7%
25.8%
3.3%
7.9%
23.4%
-9.5%
4.5%
23.6%
12.8%
Tng trng
Li
nhun
rng
-1.0%
13.1%
-0.1%
-5.3%
8.9%
5.1%
46.2%
34.2%
2.2%
EPS
5.576
16.343
5.156
5.660
7.607
6.944
8.117
6.273
6.004
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
DCL
DHG
DMC
IMP
MKP
OPC
SPM
TRA
Tn cng ty
Cng ty c phn Dc phm Cu Long
Cng ty c phn Dc phm Hu Giang
Cng ty c phn Xut nhp khu Y t Domesco
Cng ty c phn Dc phm Imexpharm
Cng ty c phn Ho - Dc phm Mekophar
Cng ty c phn Dc phm OPC
Cng ty c phn S.P.M
Cng ty c phn Traphaco
Ch s thanh
ton nhanh
N trn vn
ch s hu
71.4%
234.2%
112.2%
207.1%
168.5%
235.9%
112.0%
105.2%
189.3%
40.0%
44.4%
28.3%
31.4%
43.0%
64.2%
78.9%
Page 58 of 73
- 59 -
Kt lun: Qua vic phn tch cc ch s trn, chng ta c th nhn thy cng
ty c phn Dc Hu Giang l mt cng ty hot ng c hiu qu, n nh; c
phiu ca cng ty trn th trng c th mang li li nhun ln cho cc nh u
t. Theo nh gia ca nhiu cng ty chng khon cng nh qua phn tch cc ch
s trn ta c th thy c phiu DHG l c phiu c trin vng tng gi trong
tng lai, l ni u t hp l ca cc nh u t.
Page 59 of 73
- 60 -
- 61 -
Page 61 of 73
- 62 -
Page 62 of 73
- 63 -
Doanh thu trong qu 3 tng nh, trong khi li nhun rng li gim nh.
Doanh thu bn hng trong qu Q3/2011 t VND5,697 t, tng 5.1% so vi
qu 2/2011 (+30.2% yoy). T sut li nhun gp gim ng k cn 29.4%, mc
thp nht k t qu 4/2008 tr li y v gim mnh so vi 2 qu trc
(ln lt mc 33.3% v 31.4%). Li nhun ti chnh ca qu ny c thu
v ch yu t li ngn hng, t 146 t VND tng 2.5 ln so vi cng k nm
Page 63 of 73
- 64 -
- 65 -
- 66 -
Page 66 of 73
- 67 -
rt =
Pt +1 Pt
Pt
T sut li tc thng:
1 n
r (thng ) = r (t ) 20
n t =1
Trong : n: s ngy trong thng
r(t): t sut li tc ngy
T sut li tc trung bnh:
1
r (thng )
n
E ( R1) = 0.02
E ( R) =
E ( R 2) = 0.035
Page 67 of 73
- 68 -
Var( R) =
1
[r (thng) E ( R)]2
n
Var( R1 ) = 0.0049
Var( R2 ) = 0.0066
Suy ra:
s1 = 1 = Var( R1 ) = 0.07
s2 = 2 = Var( R2 ) = 0.0815
3. Covariance v h s tng quan:
1 n
Cov ( R1 , R2 ) = [ R1i E ( R1 )] [ R2i E ( R2 )]
n 1
Cov ( R1 , R2 ) = 0.00259
Cov( R1 , R2 )
1 2
= 0.45
4. ng bin phng sai b nht:
E ( Rp) E ( R2 )
E ( R1 ) E ( R2 )
w2 = 1 w1
s = ( p ) = ( w1 1 ) 2 + ( w2 2 ) 2 + 2w1w2 1 2
Page 68 of 73
- 69 -
NG B I N P H NG S A I B NH T
0 .0 4
0 .0 3 5
0 .0 3
0 .0 2 5
NG B I N P H NG S A I B
NH T
0 .0 2
0 .0 1 5
0 .0 1
0 .0 0 5
0
0
0 .0 2
0 .0 4
0 .0 6
0 .0 8
0 .1
5. Phn b vn gia cc ti sn u t:
5.1 Phn b vn gia 2 chng khon trong DMT ri ro:
DMT phi ri ro ca chng ta nm trn ng bin phng sai b nht nn
t trng ca 2 chng khon l:
22 Cov( R1 , R2 )
0.08152 0.00259
w1 = 2
=
= 0.6369
1 + 22 2Cov( R1 , R2 ) 0.07 2 + 0.08152 2 0.00259
w2 = 1 w1 = 1 0.6369 = 0.3631
Vy chng ta s t trng dnh cho 2 c phiu DHG v VNM ln lt l 63.69%
v 36.31%
5.2 Phn b vn gia DMT ri ro v ti sn phi ri ro:
E ( RC ) = R f + y[ E ( RP ) R f ]
U = E ( RC ) 0.005 A C2
U max th t trng u t vo DMT ri ro l:
Page 69 of 73
- 70 -
y* =
E ( RP ) R f
0.01A P2
(1)
P2 = ( w1 1 ) 2 + ( w2 2 ) 2 + 2 w1w2 1 2
P2 = (0.6369 0.07) 2 + (0.3631 0.0815) 2 + 2 0.6369 0.3631 0.45 0.07 0.0815
p2 = 0.063
Vy t trng u t vo DMT P v ti sn phi ri ro l:
y* =
E ( RP ) R f
0.01 A
2
P
0.025 0.01167
= 134.34%
0.01 2.5 0.063 2
DHG
65.5
65
60
VNM
125
127
142
1. (31/10/2011)
DHG: 84.907.875 tr
VNM: 49.559.464 tr
Li phi tr Ngn hng: 34,34*(1+1,167%)=34.74 tr
Tng gi tr DMT: 99.727.339 tr
2. (22/11/2011)
DHG: 78.376.500 tr
VNM: 55.412.944 tr
Ts phi ri ro: 34,74*(1+1,167%)=35.15 tr
Tng gi tr DMT: 98.639.444 tr
Nhn xt: Sau gn 2 thng, gi tr ca DMT C nh hn gi tr u t ban
u. iu chng t t trng vn cn c s thay i. S thay i ny c th l
Page 70 of 73
- 71 -
tng t trng vn dnh cho c phiu VNM, gim t trng vn cho c phiu
DHG.
6. H s Beta:
1 =
Cov ( R1 , RM )
0.00273
= 0.37
0.086 2
2 =
Cov ( R2 , RM )
0.00415
= 0.56
0.086 2
M2
M2
E ( RM ) R f
0.00887 0.01167
= 0.0322
0.086
M
H s gc ca SML:
E ( RP ) R f 0.025 0.01167
s SML =
=
= 0.212
P
0.063
Ta nhn thy sCML<sSML nn DMT C tt hn DMT th trng.
E
SML
E(RP)
Rf
E(RM)
CML
S
SP
SM
E ( RM ) R f
P
M
0.025 0.01167 F 0.00887 0.01167
0.063
0.086
F 0.0154
Fmax = 1.54%
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Mc lc
I. Tnh hnh kinh t v m v th trng chng khon...............................1
1. Tnh hnh kinh t v m ..........................................................................1
1.1 Tnh hnh kinh t th gii.......................................................................1
1.2 Tnh hnh kinh t Vit Nam...................................................................3
2. Th trng chng khon.........................................................................11
2.1 TTCK th gii........................................................................................11
2.2 TTCK Vit Nam.....................................................................................16
II. Phn tch ngnh :.......................................................................................26
1.Nhn nh chung.......................................................................................26
2.Ngnh Dc...............................................................................................27
a) Nhng c im chung ca ngnh...........................................................27
b) Nhng nhn t tc ng n ngnh.........................................................33
c) Tng quan v nhng doanh nghip trong ngnh......................................36
3.Ngnh sa...................................................................................................39
a) Nhng nt chung v ngnh sa................................................................39
b) Tng quan v cc doanh nghip trong ngnh..........................................45
III. Phn tch cng ty......................................................................................47
1. Cng ty c phn Dc Hu Giang (DHG).............................................47
1.1 Nhng nt chung v cng ty..................................................................47
1.2 Cc bo co ti chnh ca cng ty..........................................................51
1.3 Phn tch cc ch s ti chnh.................................................................54
2. Cng ty c phn Vinamilk (VNM).........................................................57
2.1 Tng quan v Vinamilk..........................................................................57
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